SB Nation - Pat Neshek

Fantasy Baseball: Early AL Closer Watch.

Ian, yo — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 03:04:26 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

8 months ago: New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera delivers to a member of the Phillies AAA club during a spring training baseball game at the Yankees minor league complex in Tampa, Fla., Tuesday, March 31, 2009. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Browse more photos »

We've seen a lot of trade rumors and trade analysis as of late and there really hasn't been any mention of the many teams with closer situations. We will check back in after a few months and see if anything has changed, but this is how things are looking as of now.

AL East

Yankees- I think we all know this answer. Mo' should be one of the top closers in the game again. One day, he may fall apart, but for a player of his caliber, he may retire before than happens. Next in line: Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Mark Melancon.
Red Sox- Jonathan Papelbon. In 2009, Papelbon posted a 1.85 ERA, which would lead you to believe he had a successful season. If you look at the peripheral stats, you'd see that Papelbon had an FIP of 3.05 and while he kept his K/9 above 10, he posted a BB/9 over 3 for the first time since his rookie season where he threw only 34 big league innings. I wouldn't be surprised to see Papelbon traded with the closer in waiting in Daniel Bard likely getting more work in the later innings. Next in line: Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen.
Orioles- Mike Gonzalez. The Orioles signed Gonzalez to be their closer and I can't really see anyone challenging him for the job this year. Next in line: Jim Johnson, Kam Mikolio.
Blue Jays- Jason Frasor. While there is nothing concrete in Toronto, I think Frasor will be the guy in 2010. Frasor saved 11 games in 2009 and ended the season with an FIP of 2.99 and a K/BB of 3.50. I think if the season were to begin today, Frasor would be the man, but he could lose it fairly easily. Next in line: Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo.
Rays- Rafael Soriano. The Rays either didn't seem confident or have other plans for J.P Howell in 2010. After trading prospect Jesse Chavez to Atlanta, the Rays are set at closer with Soriano. If he were to get hurt (which he does somewhat often) I would think Wheeler is the next on the list with Howell being the late inning lefty. Next in line: Dan Wheeler, J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour.

AL Central

Twins- Joe Nathan. See Mariano Rivera. Next in line: Jon Rauch, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares.
Tigers- Joel Zumaya. Currently the Tigers depth chart lists Zumaya as the closer. He's always been thought of as the closer of the future, but the Tigers have never really given him an extended look due to durability concerns. If made a closer, Zumaya could be a top level closer but he'll have to get his walks under control for that to happen. Next in line: Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Casey Fien, Phil Coke.
White Sox- Bobby Jenks. As we speak, Jenks seems to be the closer and is listed as such on the depth chart. Matt Thornton is the better pitcher, but experience could be key here. I still think Thornton ends up with the job at some point. Next in line: Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz.
Indians- Kerry Wood. Wood struggled in and there are a few more guys in waiting that could make this one of the more interesting (aka: avoidable) closer situations in 2010. Next in line: Chris Perez, Rafael Perez.
Royals- Joakim Soria. One of the more talented relievers in the game. He was hampered by injuries a bit in 2009 and still saved 30 games with a 2.21 ERA. I don't see him going anywhere. Next in line: Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth.

AL West

Angels- Brian Fuentes. Didn't have the greatest season, but the Angels paid him to close, so I don't see him doing anything else. Next in line: Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen.
Rangers- Frank Francisco. Francisco spent time on and off the DL in 2009 and the Rangers bolstered their bullpen by adding Chris Ray and Darren Oliver, making the closer role available to C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray, Francisco or fireballer Neftali Feliz. If the Rangers decide not to prepare Feliz to start, he could very easily become an elite closer. Next in line: Chris Ray, C.J. Wilson, Neftali Feliz.
Mariners- David Aardsma. The Mariners seem to be pushing for a playoff berth in 2010 by trading away Brandon Morrow for Brandon League and prospect Johermyn Chavez. League brings a big time GB% (which fits in with Seattle's league leading defense.) While I do think Aardsma will be the closer and will be successful, I wouldn't totally rule out a trade of one of the young, power arms in Seattle's pen. Next in line: Mark Lowe, Brandon League, Shawn Kelley, Joshua Fields.
Athletics- Andrew Bailey. The reigning AL Rookie of the Year is likely to be the closer for the A's in 2010, but that's what we thought about Brad Zeigler in 2009. I still see Bailey as the closer, however. Next in line: Brad Ziegler, Joey Devine, Michael Wuertz, John Meloan.

Twins Weekend Notes: Thanksgiving Edition

Jesse — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 17:06:44 -0000

Mmmm...tryptophan...

Everyone finally waking up from that Thursday afternoon coma? Fantastic. There've been a few interesting notes of intrigue over the last few days, some of which have some concern with our Minnesota Twins, so let's check them out...

The highest-profile player discussed over the last few days? Rich Harden. MLB.com's Kelly Theiser says the Twins have interest, which is good to hear. Naturally any bets on the oft-injured ace would have to be hedged by the contract. I do like the idea of bringing in Harden, on the right deal, because at the very least he gives Minnesota a little more depth with a high-end arm. If and when he would eventually go down, the Twins would still have all the same arms available to replace him.
Miguel Angel Sano? No. Miguel Angel Jean? Si. From the same mailbag, Theiser informs us that our Domincan uber-prospect will be using his real surname, as opposed to his mother's maiden name. Batting second, for the Minnesota Twins, Miguel Jean...
We've talked about Dan Uggla here at some length, as well as Ricky Nolasco, but there were rumors this week that the Marlins were trying to unload Josh Johnson as well. As Ken Rosenthan notes those rumors have been dispelled, but for a few hours there my mind was working overtime.
Joe C. flashes a preview of the Twins' spring training schedule.
LEN III talks with Jake Mauer about a couple of good pitchers in the lower levels of the farm system.
On Tuesday Pat Neshek updated his blog with some info on how his rehab is coming. It sounds like he threw a simulated game of about 30pitches, and he was happy with his slider and his increasing velocity.
Over at MLB Trade Rumors this morning I found out Nick Johnson is looking for a two-year deal. There's no room for him in Minnesota, which is too bad because I wouldn't mind gamlbing on his infamous OBP skills.

Over in the UK they don't actually celebrate Thanksgiving...shocker, I know. But yesterday I hosted and made my first ever Thanksgiving dinner for a bunch of friends, and it actually went pretty well. After the break are just a couple of pics I took...it didn't turn out as awful as I thought it would!

The Brits thoroughly enjoyed the lefsa...

MEAT. A small turkey and a decent size ham. The ham was awesome.

Okay I didn't make these. I bought these frozen. No lies.

GM Meetings Day 2: Open Thread

Jesse — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:34:55 -0000

Check back periodically for updates...

4:00 pm: Afternoon updates from Joe C.

Congrats to Joe Mauer, who wins his second Gold Glove. Well deserved.
Apparently the GM's are expected to discuss intant replay? I had no idea. At any rate it hasn't been discussed yet.
Bonser, Neshek and Slowey have been reinstated from the 60-day DL.
Joe promises more tonight.

12:45 pm: Some news from around the league

It sounds like Jason Varitek will pick up his part of the option to stay with the Red Sox, which will be a favor to teams across the American League if he continues to hit like he has the last two seasons. Which he probably will. In related news, Tim Wakefield is never going to stop pitching. NEVER.
If the Twins want to put together a package for Roy Halladay to really make a run with an Ace in hand for 2010, it will have to be a package of "quality over quantity". Sorry, Cmath.
Lunch time trade question: would you trade Jesse Crain and Delmon Young to the Royals for David DeJesus? Is it a realistic scenario?

9:30 am: Catching up on the highlights from yesterday

• Carl Pavano wouldn’t mind sticking with the Twins as long as the money is right. Quotes from his agent, Tom O’Connell, imply that Pavano won’t settle for another contract asking for his client to re-establish himself. If he’d still be willing to take an incentive-laden contract at a reasonable price (say something like one year, $5 million with $500K for reaching 100, 125, 150, 175 and 200 innings) with an option for a second year, I’d do that. He’s a Type-B free agent, but I’m not sure he’d make more than that taking the arbitration route (which the Twins are sure to offer).
• Twins General Manager Bill Smith has mentioned there will be interest in free agent starting pitchers during the off-season. I have to believe that only three spots (Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey) are locked down.
• It sounds like Ron Gardenhire wouldn’t mind bringin back Orlando Cabrera as the team’s second baseman next season, but it seems highly unlikely the front office would follow through on that.
• The Orioles claimed Armando Gabino off waivers.
• Justin Huber cleared waivers, paving the way for his possible return to Rochester (or the Twins) in 2010.
• Juan Morillo has been added to the 40-man roster, bringing the current tally to 33 (not including 60-day DL guys Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek and Kevin Slowey, or impending free agents Ron Mahay, Mike Redmond, Joe Crede, Pavano and Cabrera).
• Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors has posted his yearly series where he guesses where the top 50 free agents will end up. He thinks Adrian Beltre (number nine on his list) will end up in Minnesota.
• Before the Twins snapped up J.J. Hardy, a number of other teams had been in contact with the Brewers, including the Red Sox, Reds and Blue Jays.

Twins Non-Tender Candidates

Jesse — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:15:37 -0000

Are there really any surprises? We'll throw in some other candidates who, while not technically non-tender candates, are still players whose rosters spots are in doubt.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brendan Harris	123	414	44	108	22	1	6	37	29	78	0	2	.261	.310	.362

Brendan's offensive projections coming into 2009 weren't unreasonable. In fact, five of the more popular oracles all had his OPS coming in between .715 and .750, and those all seemed about right considering the last couple of years he's had. Instead he turned in a .672 performance, his lowest since his rookie season in 2004. In general he walked less, hit fewer line drives and his plate discipline fell off as well. In the field, his ability to play multiple positions aside, there's no advantage to be found.

All of Minnesota's middle infielders struggled this season, but with Harris A) not under contract for 2010, B) due a significant raise in aribitration and C) with less expensive options available to fill his shoes, Brendan's future with the Twins isn't guaranteed.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brian Buscher	61	136	14	32	3	1	2	12	24	35	0	0	.235	.360	.316

Buscher's fate could be tied to any number of things, but largely his future with the Twins will boil down to what the organization wants to do with other players. If the Twins feel Luke Hughes or Daniel Valencia are ready to step in it will depend on whether they'll be happy with an inexperienced but familiar backup who can hit right-handers. In spite of the fact that he'll be due less money than Harris in 2010, their fates could be tied to each other if Minnesota brings in a veteran third baseman.

The only way both of these players return, and feel free to point out how wrong I am if I'm missing something, is if the Twins believe that a Harris/Buscher platoon at the hot corner is their best option going forward. But between the trade market for third baseman, the free agent market for third basemen and a pair of decent third base prospects due to break into the majors at any time, I have to believe their days in Minnesota are numbered.

Boof Bonser

#26 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-4

Weight: 245

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 14, 1981

He still has the best name on the roster, and personally I'd be surprised if he wasn't tendered a contract this winter, but you can certainly make a case that his status could be in doubt.

Bonser will be due arbitration in 2010.
Put that extra money on top of disappointing '07 and '08 campaigns, and a completely missed '09, and you could argue that the money going to Bonser would constitute an uneccessary risk.
The Twins have a lot of young, pre-arbitration starters available.

A lot of how you view this decision depends on your faith in Bonser's abilities going forward. He did pitch better than his numbers might indicate in '07 and especially '08, but can he consistently use his fastball/curveball combination effectively for a full season as a starter?

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Philip Humber	0-0	8	0	0	0	0	0	9.0	17	8	8	1	9	9	8.00	2.89

Unless this organization is seeing something I'm not seeing, I don't see a reason to hang onto Humber at this point. The fact that he's not currently on the 40-man roster works to his advantage, because it does mean that if the Twins want to keep him in Rochester next season as a little insurance they can without using up a roster spot. But for a guy who will be 27 next season, who is essentially a two-pitch pitcher and who's really struggled with his command as a general rule in the majors, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get the axe.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Delmon Young	108	395	50	112	16	2	12	60	12	92	2	5	.284	.308	.425

No, no, no, no, no. A thousand times, no. I know he hasn't panned out so far but he'll still be just 24 in 2010, and maybe the Twins need to get inside his head a bit. Every morning tell him it's September. I don't know, but especially with nobody to push him next season coming up through the system there's is absolutely zero reason to even consider this.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jesse Crain	7-4	56	0	0	0	0	0	51.2	48	28	27	3	27	43	4.70	1.45

A solid end to the season hasn't stopped speculation from some that, due to the kind of money he'll get through arbitration this year, he should be considered a non-tender candidate. The bullpen is already considered to be a position of strength for the Twins in '10, with Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares all performing well this season, Pat Neshek due to be back and ready to pitch and, of course, Joe Nathan at the end of it all.

Is $2,000,000+ too much to pay for a relief pitcher who isn't a closer? You could argue it's too much to pay a closer. But with Nathan, Guerrier and Rauch all making millions in the 'pen, is it a wise decision for this organization to spend so much in an area typically manned by less expensive players? There are options, internally as well as externally.

Personally I'm optimistic about the relief corps next season, but I still think Crain needs to stick around. If he's part of a trade, okay, I get it, but with the troubles this team had with the 'pen for most of the season I'm not above thinking that depth isn't a bad thing to had. Especially considering how Jesse pitched down the stretch. If we want the bullpen to really be a strength for the Twins in 2010, Crain should be a part of it.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Glen Perkins	6-7	18	17	0	0	0	0	96.1	120	64	63	13	23	45	5.89	1.48

There's been a lot of publicized stress between Perkins and the organization over the last few months. No matter who you think is right, if anyone really is, there is strain on the relationship. If both sides decide to work through it, good for them, but I'm not sure that can happen.

Around the site it's been discussed that Perk could be part of a trade package. I think that's more likely than a non-tender, but you never know. This one is a tricky call, and a lot of it depends more on whether the two sides can kiss and make up, rather than anything financial or roster space related.

Drew Butera

#71 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 09, 1983

This is a reality, although it may surprise some. There are a lot of good catchers in this system, with Joe Mauer and Jose Morales sitting right at the top. Wilson Ramos is already on the 40-man roster. With Drew there's a real possibility of the Twins being able to slip him through waivers and re-sign him off the 40-man, but if the organization wants a little flexibility with their roster (which they do need) Butera might be one of the odd men out.

Jason Pridie

#11 / Center Field / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 09, 1983

I think that facial hair is reason enough, but realistically there isn't much more you can expect from Pridie going forward. It's looking more and more like his triple-A campaign for the Rays in 2007 was indeed a fluke, as he continues to strike out without walking or really making good, consistent contact. And with younger, better performing outfielders like Rene Tosoni on their way up and deserving playing time, it would surprise me to see Pridie back in Rochester in 2010.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Justin Huber	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500

Justin had a fine season in Rochester, and while he's getting on a bit in age it's interesting that both Randy Ruiz and Garrett Jones (players of a similar makeup) went on to have career years with the Blue Jays and Pirates respectively. Huber is capable of that kind of production if we're looking at his minor league numbers. But it's unlikely a player of his limited defensive skills would be able to find regular playing time with the Twins, and no doubt a guy like Erik Lis is due a promotion to Rochester.

There is space in the majors for players like Huber, but it has to be with the right club who can afford him a roster spot. He's not a bad insurance policy, the kind of guy you can look at and say "okay, maybe", but I'm not sure this is the right organization for him.

What are your thoughts?

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Jesse — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:48:55 -0000

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

Player	Original Estimate	Updated Estimate
Boof Bonser	$500,000	$900,000
Carlos Gomez	$600,000	$1,000,000
Brendan Harris	$600,000	$1,100,000
Francisco Liriano	$550,000	$1,500,000
Pat Neshek	$500,000	$700,000
Glen Perkins	$550,000	$900,000
Delmon Young	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Jesse Crain	$2,300,000	$2,300,000
Matt Guerrier	$2,100,000	$2,600,000
Totals	$9,450,000	$12,750,000

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.

How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.

Twins Acquire Ron Mahay: Analysis & Fallout

Jesse — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 19:19:46 -0000

ESPN's Buster Olney has reported that the Twins have picked up southpaw reliever Ron Mahay from the Kansas City Royals.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ron Mahay	1-1	41	0	0	0	0	0	41.1	55	26	22	9	19	34	4.79	1.79

Those are Mahay's straight up stats from this season, and they're nothing to brag about. The 38-year old lefty is joining his eighth major league team, and I wouldn't blame you for thinking that's more because of his inability to become irreplaceable than because he's just that popular. Still, being able to hang around to this age as a bullpen specialist is a tribute of some kind.

Minnesota's front office does understand that their bullpen and rotation are in need of a little boost, and Randball's Stu has already covered the hot topic of last night when the Twins claimed Rich Harden, but even though the Twins are paying just a pro-rated portion of the major league minimum for one month of Mahay you have to ask the question: is this an improvement?

Jose Mijares and Brian Duensing are currently the only two lefties on the 25-man roster, with Mijares as the southpaw out of the 'pen. Adding the veteran Mahay gives the Twins an extra option from that side of the rubber, giving them another choice when working match-ups late in the game. Wait, did I just say "match-ups"?

Pitcher	AVG VS RHB	OPS VS RHB	AVG VS LHB	OPS VS LHB
Ron Mahay	.340	1.043	.278	.778
Joe Nathan	.180	.468	.161	.542
Matt Guerrier	.221	.644	.167	.441
Jose Mijares	.276	.756	.130	.439
Jesse Crain	.244	.646	.356	1.092
Bob Keppel	.282	.834	.304	.852
Jeff Manship	.500	1.038	.222	.541
Brian Duensing	.277	.809	.250	.629
Philip Humber	.429	.984	.385	1.004

Sure, there's some small sample size considerations here with guys like Humber, Manship...and even probably Keppel and Duensing, What it looks like we're getting in Mahay isn't necessarily a guy who is a definitive statistical improvement over half of this crew, but he is a guy who's seen...well, not "it all", but he's seen a lot. And we're getting a guy whose longevity may or may not mean something to the men who pitch in front of him and the guys who field behind him. Maybe the biggest positive we're getting from the acquisition of Mahay is the appearance to the players that yes, actually, the front office is trying to do something.

In a pennant race, given the choice between a 38-year old veteran and a non-hype rookie who's gotten shelled, who do you choose?

Fallout

Somebody is going to be removed from the 25-man roster, first of all. This could be Joe Crede, although this would put pressure on the Twins in regards to the post-season roster. It needs to be set by the end of the month, and considering this rule...

In cases of injury replacements on the post-season roster, only position players can be inserted for position players, and likewise pitchers for pitchers

...things could get difficult. Putting Crede on the DL and using Mahay to fill his roster spot means the Twins would need to make a move on another position player prior to September 1, unless they want to fake an injury to someone like Alexi Casilla...which I wouldn't advise they do. Not that they'd listen to me.

The most likely, and most logical, scenario sees the Twins sending Armando Gabino back to Rochester, having Mahay fill his spot, and keeping four starters on the roster; Thursday's off-day keeps everyone on rest, and with rosters expanding on Tuesday the Twins could have another starter ready to drop into the rotation.

Of course, none of this means that Crede shouldn't be sent to the disabled list.

More importantly than possibly all of that, is making room on the 40-man roster. Even with Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek and Kevin Slowey not taking up space by being on the 60-day DL, all spots are filled. The Twins could shift either Francisco Liriano or Glen Perkins to the 60-day DL, or they could attempt to remove someone by passing them through waivers. Of course, this assumes the Twins would want to bring this person back. It's more than realistic to entertain the notion that someone like Humber could get his walking papers.

Conclusions

Picking up Mahay wasn't a bad move, but we really have to hope he either performs better for the Twins than he did the Royals, or is simply used more effectively than he was with the Royals. But what's fun is that the most intriguing part of this acquisition isn't the acquisition itself, it's what happens to get that acquisition on the field.

What are your thoughts?

Upcoming...fallout and conclusions...

Twins Mid-Season Elias Rankings

Jesse — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:00:14 -0000

From MLB Trade Rumors on Sunday night:

Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts reverse-engineered the Elias Rankings last year. Eddie's incredible work was made possible in large part due to information provided by ESPN's Keith Law. Eddie is now providing the rankings exclusively to MLB Trade Rumors. Today's snapshot covers the beginning of the 2008 season through July 11th of 2009. So the rankings will obviously change over the next few months.

I'll give you the link for a comprehensive list of all MLB, but first we'll review where some of your Twins sat.

Catchers	Score	Type
Joe Mauer	94.470	A
Mike Redmond	41.935	None
Jose Morales	32.488	None

The highest ranking catcher in all of baseball, by a sizeable margin, this really isn't a surprise. There really isn't much more you can say about it, other than mentioning that his 94.47 score is the second highest anywhere on this list. Only Roy Halladay tops it. For catchers the cutoff between Type A and Type B players was somewhere between 72.120 (Jason Varitek) and 75.115 (Dioner Navarro). The cutoff between Type B and no type at all is 53.456 (Miguel Olivo) and 50.961 (Kenji Johjima).

1B/OF/DH	Score	Type
Justin Morneau	84.12	A
Jason Kubel	68.33	B
Delmon Young	53.01	None
Denard Span	52.19	None
Michael Cuddyer	51.92	None
Carlos Gomez	36.99	None

A few more surprises here, some bigger than others. Morneau, for example, gets the highest score in this category in the American League. Then there's the close cluster of Young, Span and Cuddyer...which, like Elias rankings can do from time to time, confuses the hell out of me. Span and Cuddyer's part-time duties in '08, for one reason or another, is a likely cause of these rankings. I know playing time counts in the eyes of Elias, although Cuddyer's .699 OPS last season has to be a part of it as well.

Here, the split between Type A and Type B is 72.05 (Carlos Quentin) and 71.64 (Xavier Nady). Between Type B and no type is 57.67 (Jacoby Ellsbury) and 56.58 (B.J. Upton).

2B/SS/3B	Score	Type
Brendan Harris	57.74	None
Joe Crede	52.38	None
Nick Punto	48.21	None
Brian Buscher	41.16	None
Matt Tolbert	20.30	None

I think Crede is close enough to the Type B cutoff that he could play himself into that position if he stays healthy the rest of the season. Harris is the top-ranking player without a designation, so if he can get regular playing time and hit a bit better he should be able to attain B status as well. Mike Lowell (74.15) is the bottom of the Type A's, with the highest Type B being Chone Figgins (73.47). Directly above Harris, hanging on to his Type B status, is Alex Gordon (58.50).

Starting Pitchers	Score	Type
Scott Baker	78.860	A
Nick Blackburn	74.035	B
Kevin Slowey	73.509	B
Glen Perkins	64.123	B
Francisco Liriano	44.298	None
Anthony Swarzak	20.263	None

Even with that start Baker pulls off a strong score here, ranking 14th among starting pitchers in the American League. Blackburn's golden first half gives him a strong boost, and he's the highest ranked Type B on the list coming about .350 short of a Type A. If Perkins and Slowey can come back after the Break and simply turn in performances they're capable of, they should be able to maintain. It's Liriano, who comes in roughly ten points short of Type-B status, who has the longest road ahead of him to change his designation. Not that it really matters anyway, since he's not a free agent at the end of the year anyway.

Relief Pitchers	Score	Type
Joe Nathan	86.842	A
Matt Guerrier	59.153	B
Jose Mijares	54.729	B
Bobby Keppel	52.174	None
Boof Bonser	39.359	None
R.A. Dickey	37.681	None
Brian Duensing	34.554	None
Pat Neshek	32.456	None

There's no Jesse Crain on this list, but I can't imagine he'd be much higher than the bottom rung of a Type B after the season he's started with the Twins. Nathan's score is the second highest for relievers, second to (naturally) Mariano Rivera (87.109). Keppel has pitched well in his brief stint with the team, thus his respectable score. Darren Oliver (66.514) is the lowest rated Type A, just above Joba Chamberlain (65.217) and the Type B's. Mijares is the lowest rated B status bullpen arm.

Of course, none of this matters. Everything will change by season's end, and for most of these players it won't matter anyway. Only Crede and Redmond are potential free agents, everyone else is either still under team control or under contract. But it's still interesting to see where people rank.

Here's the complete list.

Twinkie Town History: July 1

Jesse — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 10:48:29 -0000

June is already done and dusted for 2009, and the baseball season is halfway through its ownership of months for the regular season. For your browsing (see: wasting time at work) pleasure, we're looking back at what we were doing on the first of July in years past.

July 1, 2008: Relief Failure

Categorized by ERA+, looking at the Twins' top 20 relievers since 2001.

July 1, 2007: Castillo Redux

Cmathewson ponders Luis Castillo being called an All-Star, hoping the Twins choose not to re-sign him.

July 1, 2007: Vote for Pat!

With Justin Morneau, Johan Santana and Torii Hunter already on the All-Star team, Jon Marthaler encourages us to vote for Pat Neshek in the Final Vote Ballot.

July 1, 2007: Twins Aquire Garnett From Wolves

The Wolves were looking for suitors, and the Twins needed an athlete. As for what the Pups got in return, there's still no word on whether Glen Taylor has received the second part of his request. The Big Mac, it appears, was delicious.

July 1, 2006: Open Conversation, Projection Poll

Whose projections were most likely to hold up? Those projections are here. Note Jason Bartlett's great start, Nick Punto's best career season, Justin Morneau breaking out and Rondell White barely limping along.

Twins bullpen woes: Are there solutions?

cmathewson — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 06:00:13 -0000

The Achilles heel of the Twins in 2008 was its bullpen, which regularly imploded, especially after Pat Neshek was put on the disabled list. Can the 2009 pen improve on the unit's 2008 performance, in which it blew 26 saves? Early returns suggest that this pen is even worse than last year's pen. At least last year's pen had a couple of months with Neshek to nail down the eighth inning. This year's pen has no clear eighth-inning guy. Because the other set-up roles hinge on eighth-inning clarity, manager Ron Gardenhire (Gardy) is left juggling every night, something he had spotty success with in 2008.

The stakes are high: Find some stability in the bullpen or suffer through a year of blown saves and futile chances of postseason glory. So what can the front office do to fix the bullpen and save the season before it spirals out of control? The options are actually better than casual fans might think. In this blogger's opinion, the Twins have enough depth in the minors to fix the problem. The question is, will the front office act before it's too late?

Assessing what we have in the majors

Before assessing the options in the minors, let's look at what we have in the majors. To net it out for scanners: It's not good.

Jesse Crain: Crain appears to have his stuff back the second year after shoulder surgery, which is a good sign. And, until Friday night, he looked like the perfect candidate to fill the eighth-inning role. Tuesday night's extra inning performance, in particular, made it look like he could be the man for the eighth. He showed similar flashes of brilliance last year in pressure situations, but he struggled to stay consistent. Friday night he proved he has yet to establish consistency. Whether he can establish consistency this year is an open question. He's certainly an option, but other options must be examined.
Matt Guerrier: Guerrier had one of the worst second halves of any reliever in the majors last year. Twins fans from the 80s will understand it when I say it was truly RD-like, circa 1986. After such a collapse, why did the Twins so readily bring him back this year? Well he was so good beforehand, it appeared to be an aberration. Conventional wisdom said fatigue had taken the life from his pitches, with predictable results (contrary to his actual usage data). So would an off season of rest bring back his stuff? I have expressed my doubts here, which have been unfortunately confirmed in the early goings. He too struggles with consistency, but, unlike Crain, his good performances to date are the exception rather than the rule. I think he's proven he can't be the eighth-inning guy. If he's used right, however, he could be an effective middle or long man, which is where he's had most of his success. The key for him is usage; and it's clear neither Gardy nor Andy know how to use him right yet. Even with proper usage, he might be a candidate later in the year for DFA if he doesn't start pitching better.
Craig Breslow: Breslow was one of the few bright spots last year in limited duty. Why his duty was so limited was a mystery, and the hope going into this year was that he would replicate his performance with more work. So far, that hope is fading fast. He's already had two appearances without getting an out, which is two more than last year. It's no exaggeration to say he's the biggest disappointment in the bullpen so far this season. His new role of left-handed specialist seems to suit him not at all. It seems he could be effective in the role he had last year--middle reliever for righties and lefties. But that means the Twins will need to get a LOOGY to replace Dennys Reyes because Breslow is not the guy. As we shall see, there is LOOGY in Rochester doing quite well. So there is some hope here.
Luis Ayala: Beyond Neshek's elbow problems, the other big blow to the bullpen last year was the disaster that was Juan Rincon. Faced with needing to replace both Neshek and get an arm to upgrade Rincon's slot, Bill Smith came up with Luis Ayala. So far, Rincon (who is pitching for Detroit) is out pitching Ayala, not that that's saying much (a 5+ ERA vs. a 7+ ERA). Ayala has looked horrible this year. Gardy appeared to put him in the eighth-inning role to begin with, which didn't work at all. Now he seems relegated to mop-up duty. Unfortunately, this team has had a lot of mop-up duty this year, so we've seen Ayala a lot more than many of us want to. There was some hope that this would be the year for him to recover from Tommy John surgery and return to the form he had prior to surgery. But the history of guys who rely on the sinker post TJ is not good (see Mays, Joe). So there's little hope he'll be any better going forward. He's definitely a candidate to follow Philip Humber in the ranks of DFAed pitchers. The sooner the better, IMHO.
RA Dickey: Dickey started out taking Scott Baker's slot in the rotation as Baker nursed a stiff shoulder in Fort Myers. When Baker returned, Dickey went to the bullpen. Gardy loves this guy because he can pitch everyday. Therein lies the problem. It's one thing for a guy to have a rubber arm. It's quite another for him to get outs with it. When he gave up a first-pitch grand slam the other day, Twins fans got a taste of things to come. Dickey could be useful as a mop-up guy. But counting on him to get outs in close-and-late situations is a pipe dream, considering his propensity to give up walks and homers. The sooner Gardy realizes that, the better.
Juan Morillo: The Twins have not wasted time in trying to fix the problem with this bullpen, designating Philip Humber for assignment and claiming Juan Morillo off waivers from Colorado on Friday. Morillo has a power arm, which is definitely needed in this organization. Let's hope he can harness his stuff to get outs. But he's a development project who should not be given a lot of high-pressure situations until he shows he can do it consistently. Bottom line, though it's a good sign that the Twins are willing to make moves to improve the pen, we can't count on him for anything right now. His minor league numbers suggest he'll strike out a lot of guys, but he'll also walk a lot of batters, which is not a great thing for a late-inning reliever.

Assessing what we have in the minors

The good news is, the situation in the minors looks promising. For the first time in years, the Twins have several arms who have been extremely successful as relievers. So, rather than needing to convert starters to relievers and develop guys in the majors, the Twins should be able to call on guys who are used to bullpen roles and can help sooner rather than later.

Jose Mijares: The Twins were counting on Mijares to come to spring training in shape and pick up where he left off in September last year, when he was the only legitimate replacement for Neshek in the second half. But Mijares came to camp overweight, tweaked a groin muscle early in camp, and never pitched well. So he's down in Rochester getting himself back on track. Fortunately, he's yet to give up a run in Rochester, and it appears he's close to being ready to come back to the team. When he was sent down, he said he expected to get back by June. But Bill Smith pulled him aside and told him he wanted him ready in April. So perhaps Smith foresaw this situation and needed Mijares to be an option right away. This indicates that he could be up as soon as they DFA Ayala, which he's a couple of more bad outings away from IMO. The good news there is Mijares can fill the shoes of Dennys Reyes (he could even fill his jumbo-sized jersey), allowing Breslow to return to the middle-inning generalist role he thrived in last year. Crain might not be able to handle all the eighth-inning duties, but he might be able to share them with Mijares.
Anthony Slama: In this bloggers opinion, Slama is the best relief prospect the Twins have had since Pat Neshek. He won all sorts of awards for his work last year in Fort Myers last season, with good reason. He had sick numbers as the Miracle's closer and continues his dominating ways as New Britain's closer this year. Some might say there are relievers in Rochester ahead of him. But aside from Mijares, there is no better reliever in the organization than Slama. And the Twins won't hesitate to go get him if they need someone to replace a struggling middle guy.
Rob Delaney: A lot of analysts actually rate Delaney higher than Slama, which is saying a lot. Though neither guy was rated very highly out of college (Slama was a 39th-round draft choice and Delaney went undrafted), they have both had incredible minor league careers, typically at the same level. Analysts who rate Delaney ahead of Slama likely do so because of his promotion to New Britain from Fort Myers last year. Why didn't the Twins promote Slama instead? I don't know, but Slama actually had better numbers than Delaney did at Fort Myers last year. Other than numbers, the reason I rate Slama higher is the Twins have made him the closer whenever he and Delaney pitched together in the same pen, as is the case this year in New Britain. Slama also had a better spring, and like Mijares, has yet to give up a run in the early going as the Rock Cats' closer. Still, Delaney is another good option in case of injury or continued poor pitching by the current bullpen.

Conclusion

Take heart, Twins fans. As usual, the lads have gotten out of the gate slowly as the coaching staff struggles to fit the pieces of the roster puzzle together. But early adjustments can save the team from an early demise. And there's no place like the bullpen to start the maneuvering, which appears underway already. It looks like the Twins will not have to go outside of the organization to upgrade some key spots in late-inning relief.

Twins Off-Season Question #1: What Do We Have?

Jesse — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 00:05:34 -0000

Over the next couple of weeks we'll tackle exactly what questions the Twins need to answer by the time they get to spring training. Even then there can be changes, but they'll have directions and expectations by then. Hopefully the discussion we generate here can give us a little insight into how Minnesota will aproach this winter.

The off-season is the time for a full, top-to-bottom assessment of the entire organization; what you have and what you don't, what you want and what you need, where you're going and where you've been. There's always a focus on the following season, but everything must be done with conscious decision of the future. So asking the question "What Do We Have" is more about understanding priorities than categorically running down a list of names and scratching in a "yes" or a "no".

But yeah, there's probably a little bit of that, too.

Understanding what we have helps to answer what's missing, and so I'll be categorizing certain parts of the team (both by skill and position) in one of three ways. High Priority, meaning it's an issue that will be addressed one way or the other over the coming months; Low Priority, meaning skills or positions that do not need to be addressed prior to spring training; and Wish List, which are things not quite as integral as High Priority, but are things that would definitely benefit the team by being addressed.

Low Priority

Catchers - With one of the game's best catchers (at 26 next season) locked up through 2010 for the moment, and with Mike Redmond having his option picked up earlier this month, the only thing the Twins need to worry about here is who would be the emergency catcher. Even with Redmond being 38 next year, this position is pretty far down on the agenda of things to tweak.

Outfield - A pair of talented guys who were 22 this year, another one just coming into his own (albeit more often as a designated hitter), a guy who will be entering the second of a three-year deal and a longtime prospect who just had a breakout season...that's not bad. While it's a position that's not without questions, there's no need to complicate a crowded position. Whatever solutions lie in the outfield, it's all but certain that they're already in-house.

First Base - Justin Morneau has been a full-time player for the last four seasons, and hasn't played in fewer than 157 in the last three. He's a low injury risk and keeps himself in excellent shape, and his production over the last three years leaves little room for complaint.

Second Base - Although he tailed off late in the season offensively, Alexi Casilla certainly took control of this position. It's now his position to lose, and while there can be some debate over whether he could be moved to shortstop in the future, right now we don't want to play with too many complications or "what if's". Casilla is an incumbant at second.

Speed - Denard Span, Alexi Casilla and Carlos Gomez are a trio of exceedingly fast players, and with the youth of this team there aren't a lot of guys who really pull a plow. While this speed isn't necessarily being utilized to its full potential, it's a skill that can be honed. Minnesota isn't a team that has to worry about clogging up the basepaths at any rate, which means this is a skill that doesn't need to become a focus this winter.

Leadoff Hitter - This is a very general term, because it can mean a number of things depending on what a team is looking for. Ideally, this player combines patience at the plate with a good eye, good speed and a knack for getting on base, by getting hits and taking walks. Whatever the case may be, Denard Span emerged as the leadoff hitter this team needed, and just like Casilla at second base the leadoff role is Span's to lose. There are other candidates who the Twins wouldn't hesitate to use in such a capacity, but for now they don't need to go looking for a table setter.

High Priority

Hitting for Power - This can come in a number of ways, whether it's by a specialist that can be brought in off the bench in certain situations, or whether it's by bringing in an everyday player at a position that can be upgraded. While the Twins will count on increased power production from Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young in 2009, the only two players returning as long-ball threats are Justin Morneau (.499 slugging, .199 isolated power) and Jason Kubel (.471 slugging, .199 isolated power). Minnesota might decide to take a big gamble, and hope both Justin and Jason replicate their numbers while being supplemented by improvements from Cuddyer and Young, but at the very least they should still be exploring options that will give them a bit of reliable pop off the bench. Craig Monroe, the all-or-nothing guy, doesn't count. Randy Ruiz is an option, but the Twins might look into free agency here, with an eye on third base. No matter what route they take, one thing is certain: it's easier to score runs when you can hit home runs.

Bullpen - The Twins can find a way to add one addtional arm to the bullpen pretty easily, but that's all the leeway they'll have here. After Joe Nathan the reliability factor and track records faulter a bit, which is why the relief corps should be under intense scrutiny. Pat Neshek will have to prove he can still be the effective set-up man, which is far from a guarantee at this point. Matt Guerrier was miserable in '08, and while a bounce back can be expected it's hard to say how much of one it'll be. Craig Breslow is an unproven commodity, Jesse Crain isn't the "blow-em-away" set-up guy we need, and Philip Humber is likely to make the roster because he's out of options. I'm an optimist, and I have faith, but the Twins will address the bullpen over the winter. They may do nothing in the end, but they'll be monitoring their options very closely.

Third Base - With Adrian Beltre as a fairly certain target, the Twins would get a boost on both sides of the ball. They could go into next season with any combination of in-house options, which would give them a live body, but nothing above average at the plate or in the field. With the experience and familiarity brought by a combination of Brian Buscher, Matt Macri, Brendan Harris or Matt Tolbert, in-house solutions are a viable option going into next year...but the team would be served by an improvement. A guy like Beltre would be two birds (third base and power) with one stone.

Wish List

Shortstop - Much like third base, the Twins could find serviceable options within the fold. Nick Punto could be re-signed, or Brendan Harris, and Matt Tolbert could also step in. Short only comes under "Wish List" because of the offensive implications usually associated with a third baseman...which boosts the hot corner up a notch. The primary issue here with an external option is that the free agent market for shortstop isn't that deep; this is where we could raise the question of Casilla and shorstop, since the market for second basemen is a bit deeper. But again, right now that's all just speculation. For the time it's pretty basic--Minnesota could get by on what they have internally, but would again be served by an improvement.

Starting Pitcher - With the youth and inexperience of the five returning starters (Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins), it's realistic to expect some sort of a regression next season. For this purpose, in spite of how talented this rotation can be on their best days, if the Twins were to go out and pick up a good starter it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I don't expect this to happen, but with rumblings about a guy like Matt Cain it can't be counted out.

Bench Contact Hitter - If the Twins don't improve offensively at third base or shortstop, the best thing they could do for themselves is to improve their bench prospects offensively. A good contact hitter or situational hitter, a guy who can appear with confidence whether he played yesterday or four days ago, could be a mint addition. Yes, you heard me: mint.

Conclusions

Right now the Twins have relatively few questions, and we know what the primary focus areas for the team will be this winter. One point that should be understood is that, unless something changes, the Twins only have two (or maybe three) spots to play with on the 25-man roster going into 2009:

Starters: Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins (5)
Bullpen: Nathan, Crain, Breslow, Neshek, Guerrier, Humber, Bonser (7)
Catchers: Mauer, Redmond (2)
Infield: Morneau, Casilla, Buscher, Tolbert (4)
Outfield: Cuddyer, Span, Young, Kubel, Gomez (5)

As you can see, the obvious two positions are in the infield, and as we discussed earlier a spot could be made in the bullpen with an easy decision on Boof Bonser or Matt Guerrier.

This is just the beginning, and while discussion can get a bit more speculative or predictive down the road, it's always important at this juncture to have a starting point or to be in neutral. This post is neutral, at least for now. We understand who is probably coming back, and we also have a pretty good idea of the priorities of the team for the coming months.