SB Nation - Augie Ojeda

2010 in Arizona: Second-base

Jim McLennan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 04:07:42 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

In this scene, taken from the upcoming FOX special, When Herbivores Attack, Diamondbacks' second-baseman Ryan Roberts nearly avoids being gored by an angry panda, after accientally coming between it and the buffet-table. Miggy stands ready to run in with the Sedona red cape.

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Somewhat later than usual, the earlier part of the day having been spent in putting together our early Christmas present to each other: a new TV set. I think we have the basics sorted now: it's attached to a stand, sitting on a table and the cable-box has been reconnected, but further action on that front has been suspended pending the arrival of the HDMI cables. Those should have arrived today, but instead we got a terse note from the Post Office stating, "Dogs Out". They clearly do not know our canines.

Anyway, no point engaging in further cabliciousness until those arrive, so we just watched the first thing on the new box: let the record show that it was The Breakfast Club, which I had never actually seen. American high-school angst: not normally my thing, but this was pretty good, sharply written and well-acted, so better than I expected. And speaking of a disparate group of individuals, thrown together by fate for a common purpose, brings me neatly to second-base in Arizona. After the jump, we'll review what happened last season, and take a look at what options we might have at the spot for the coming year.

2009 Performance
1. Felipe Lopez - 80 starts .301/.364/.412
2. Ryan Roberts - 45 starts .279/.367/.416
3. Augie Ojeda - 27 starts .246/.340/.345
4. Rusty Ryal - 10 starts .271/.353/.593

It was generally thought fairly certain, even before Opening Day, that Felipe Lopez would be, at most, a one-season wonder at the position. If he was as good as he had been with the Cardinals, he'd be too expensive for us to re-sign as a free agent; if he was as bad as his time in Washington, we wouldn't want to re-sign him. In the end, he did pretty well for the Diamondbacks, but was traded to the Brewers just after the All-Star break, for prospects Cole Gillespie and Roque Mercedes [Lopez did even better in Milwaukee, batting .320, and as the best-hitting 2B on the free-agent market, looks set for a good payday as a result].

Following his departure, it was mostly Roberts who took over in the role of heavily-tattooed second-baseman. He had been the 25th man named to the roster in spring, but good work with both the glove and bat pushed him into contention, and he took full advantage of the chance provided by Lopez's departure. After that point, Roberts hit a solid .290/.374/.465, for a solid .839 OPS in the second-half, giving himself a solid chance to be the everyday starter in 2010. Defensive help was provided by the always-reliable Ojeda, and August call-up Ryal made a good impression in his major-league debut.

Top Free Agents
Name	Age	2009 Sal.	2009 OPS+
Orlando Hudson	32	$8m	109
Felipe Lopez	29	$3.5m	111
Ronnie Belliard	34	$1.9m	105
Adam Kennedy	34	$400k	101
Kelly Johnson	28	$2.825m	83
Chance of AZ free-agent activity: medium.

2010 Depth-chart and Projections

Ryan Roberts .250/.333/.379
Tony Abreu .285/.330/.416
Augie Ojeda .250/.332/.336

The team does have a variety of options at second-base, though none of them are perhaps exactly sure-fire things. Roberts did play well when he replaced Lopez, but does he have what it takes to be an Opening Day starter for the first time in his career? One note of hope is that his good post-ASB performance was not BABIP inflated: his number there, at .313, was actuallylower than his pre-break BABIP of .333, even though hit batting average was 33 points better. However, we probably shouldn't expect Roberts to sustain the power surge which saw him hit seven homers in 200 at-bats during the second-half.

In the event of Roberts faltering, waiting in the wings will be Abreu, who came over from Los Angeles in the trade for Jon Garland. He spent most of the year in Triple-A with Albequerque, having missed the entire 2008 season with a groin injury. However, he continued where he left off, hitting .353 in 54 games, almost the same numbers Abreu posted in 2007 at Triple-A (.355 in 54 games), so seems to have fully recovered. [Though it should be noted, Albuquerque, where he played 2009, is higher than both Reno and Denver] It seems likely Abreu is being groomed to be Arizona's second-baseman of the future; however, at an age of only 25, if 2010 was not the start of his full-time incumbency, it wouldn't be the end of the world.

Abreu's role may depend on whether the Diamondbacks pick up Kelly Johnson. Nick Piecoro has confirmed that Arizona are interested in the former Braves' starter, who was recently non-tendered by Atlanta. At about this time last year, there had been discussions of a Conor Jackson for Johnson swap: given neither player exactly had a 2009 they will want to remember, it's probably for the best those talks came to nothing, but it does show Johnson has been on the team's radar for a bit. If this were to come to fruition, Piecoro reckons that it would lead to the trading away of Augie Ojeda, with Abreu being used as the infield backup instead.

However, if the team doesn't get Johnson, I don't get the feeling the Diamondbacks will be too concerned. The team should still be relatively happy to go into 2010, with Roberts as the starter and Abreu in the wings, and see how things shake out as the year progresses.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 15:18:55 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

Craig Counsell is expected to re-sign today.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while John Tesh rocks the NBA on NBC theme (h/t Amy K. Nelson).

Randy Wolf is expected to undergo a physical this morning and once he does, expect his contract to become official sometime later today. That might not be today's only announcement, though: the Brewers are also expected to finalize a deal with Craig Counsell today. With Counsell, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Casey McGehee all on the roster, the Brewers' Opening Day infield is probably set, barring injury or trade.

Meanwhile, Mike Rivera is surprised to be looking for work after being non-tendered over the weekend. He thought the decision not to retain Jason Kendall would give him an edge as the only returning catcher familiar with the Brewer pitching staff.

As of this writing, roughly 4% of voters in the poll on your right listed the decision to offer Dave bush a 2010 contract as the one Brewer move from this weekend they would change. That's not exactly a large chunk of the fanbase, but In-Between Hops is taking on that vocal minority, making the case that the Brewers made the right move by giving Bush another shot.

If you missed Morineko's Weekend Mug, follow the link over to it for full coverage of the Brewers' arbitration decisions, and a link to this list of all the non-tenders leaguewide.

Looking back at last week, Jon Heyman ranked the Brewers among the Winter Meeting winners. Meanwhile, Marc Hulet of The Baseball Analysts listed Rule 5 selection Chuck Lofgren in the "Why Bother?" category.

The more I think about it, the more I think Lofgren will have a tough task ahead of him if he's going to make the team out of spring training. With Trevor Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins, Todd Coffey, Claudio Vargas and Mitch Stetter back, there's only two bullpen spots left that are potentially available (barring injury), and Chris Smith, John Axford, Chris Narveson, Zach Braddock and now Lofgren fighting for them. I like Lofgren's potential and hope the Brewers will get an opportunity to realize it, but right now he might be the third or fourth best lefty in the bullpen competition.

If you have a vague interest in Brewer baseball, but wish there was less analysis and more profanity on this site, then Miller Park Drunk's RUNNING series might be just the ticket for you. Follow these links for bad Prince Fielder jokes, some fan fiction involving Ryan Braun trying to rap, and a vague musical reference to Rickie Weeks.

In the minors: Baseball Intellect has video footage of some at bats featuring Cameron Garfield, Cutter Dykstra and Josh Prince from a Pioneer League game back in July. They're pay-only, but there are worse ways to spend $2.95.

If you were gone this weekend, you didn't miss the opportunity to help select a center fielder and catcher for the BCB All Decade Team. Voting closes at 4 pm today for center fielders and 4 pm tomorrow for catchers. We'll open the voting for the final starting outfield spot later today.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Signed catcher John Buck to a one-year deal worth $2 million, signed Joey Gathright to a minor league deal,
Braves: Signed Matt Diaz to a one year, $2.55 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
D-Backs: Re-signed infielder Augie Ojeda to a one year deal, and avoided arbitration with Blaine Boyer.
Dodgers: Signed pitcher Josh Towers to a minor league deal.
Giants: Signed shortstop-turned-pitcher Tony Pena Jr. to a minor league deal.
Indians: Re-signed pitchers Adam Miller and Anthony Reyes to minor league deals.
Marlins: Signed catcher Ronny Paulino to a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Nationals: Re-signed Scott Olsen to a one year deal. Also signed pitcher Ryan Speier to a minor league deal.
Padres: Signed pitcher Kevin Correia to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Pirates: Signed Ronny Cedeno to a one year, $1.125 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rangers: Signed infielder Esteban German to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rays: Avoided arbitration with catcher Dioner Navarro and pitchers Grant Balfour, Rafael Soriano, Lance Cormier and Randy Choate.
Royals: Avoided arbitration with pitchers Brian Bannister and Kyle Davies. They also signed pitcher Bruce Chen and catcher Vance Wilson to minor league deals.
White Sox: Signed J.J. Putz to a one year deal.

Meanwhile, the market heated up immediately for Yankees non-tender Chien-Ming Wang, with Ken Rosenthal reporting that six teams have already expressed interest. He doesn't list the teams, but I wouldn't be surprised to discover the Brewers are one of them.

I promise, I'm not going to mention it every time someone says something new about Jason Kendall. In fact, I might try to go the rest of the week without mentioning him at all. With that said, I thought these three links about him were interesting:

Joe Posnanski has a look at the potential Opening Day lineup for the 2010 Royals, now including Kendall.
He also compares Kendall to a superball on the field at Cleveland Municipal Stadium.
Reminding us all how far and how fast Kendall has fallen, Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? named Kendall the Pirate Catcher of the Decade.

Weeks ago I linked to a post from minor league veteran Garrett Broshuis, mentioning the challenges in finding quality, healthy food in minor league clubhouses. It looks like that problem may be on its way to being resolved: After discussing it at the Winter Meetings, several teams are making an effort to provide healthier options, and remove the constant flow of junk.

If you're a fan of sabermetrics, or just want to learn more about them, I've got two links for you today:

TangoTiger has a look at OPS+, and some minor adjustments that could be made to it to make it more useful than some other advanced metrics.
That post links to this one, Big League Stew's beginner's guide to wOBA. I learned a fair amount by reading that one.

Gorman Thomas celebrated a birthday over the weekend, and while this probably isn't what he had in mind for a gift, David Chalk of Seventh Inning 'Stache has inducted him into the MLB Mustache Hall of Fame.

On this day in 1998, the Brewers acquired Alex Ochoa from the Twins for a minor leaguer named Darrell Nicholas. Ochoa spent one season as a Brewer, hitting .300/.404/.466 before being traded to the Reds for Mark Sweeney after the season.

Happy birthday today to:

Former Seattle Pilot and 1970 Brewer Greg Goossen, who turns 64.
Dave Nilsson, who appeared in 837 games as a Brewer and turns 40.
Marcus Jensen, who appeared in 18 games over two tours as a Brewer and turns 37.

Sean Forman, founder of Baseball Reference, is also celebrating his birthday today. You can help him celebrate by sponsoring a page. I know someone around here will want this one.

Drink up.

NL West in Review: Shortstops

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 19:00:43 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

If UZR wasn't so strangely hard on Tulo, the Rockies' shortstop would be even higher above his competition.

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This is about as suspenseful as a modern day cookie-cutter horror flick. Not even our pudgy four-letter Philly fan can deny the proper anointment of the NL West's top shortstop in 2009. However, it wasn't quite so clear just last March.

Coming off of a miserable 0.8 WAR season in 2008 (at the same level as Brian Barton and Carlos Gonzalez), Troy Tulowitzki silenced all critics in 2009, giving the Rockies a clear advantage over every team in the West. In fact, the 6.85 WAR that Tulo, Barmes and Quintanilla generated represent the strongest infield position of any team in the division.

Even considering Tulo's down year, the preseason projections had the Rockies as clear favorites in the NL West, with Los Angeles, Arizona, San Francisco and San Diego following in order. Colorado delivered in a big way, representing the division's sole above average offensive unit. Everth Cabrera's surprising rookie season ruined what would have otherwise been an accurate ranking:


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Colorado	3	.298	32	96	.377	.536	.387	6.85
2. Los Angeles	4	.271	9	54	.330	.371	.321	3.64
3. Arizona	3	.265	12	73	.332	.417	.326	2.49
4. San Diego	4	.231	4	43	.319	.328	.304	1.98
5. San Francisco	4	.255	11	72	.306	.353	.296	0.74

Shortstop was the most stable position among divisional infield positions, as all five teams had clear full-time starters from start to finish. With the positional RAR set at +7.5, here is the graphical RAR representation:

For the full rankings and team rundowns, turn the corner.

Seventeen different men manned shortstop, including Josh Wilson twice (for San Diego and Arizona), and all but five were above replacement level:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Troy Tulowitzki	COL	628	.296	32	92	.377	.551	.362	-1.2	5.07
2	Rafael Furcal	LAD	671	.266	8	45	.331	.368	.321	8.0	3.24
3	Stephen Drew	AZ	586	.262	12	65	.320	.432	.334	3.4	3.00
4	Everth Cabrera	SDP	437	.255	2	31	.343	.362	.335	-11.7	0.84
5	Augie Ojeda	AZ	116	.289	0	6	.381	.371	.331	3.2	0.83
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
14	Blake DeWitt	LAD	5	.000	0	0	.200	.000	.141	-0.4	-0.08
15	Luis Rodriguez	SDP	119	.196	1	6	.314	.268	.272	-1.8	-0.12
16	Kevin Frandsen	SFG	20	.056	0	0	.150	.056	.119	-0.2	-0.21
17	Chris Burke	SDP	76	.214	1	5	.276	.314	.268	-2.6	-0.23
18	Josh Wilson	SDP	42	.108	0	1	.195	.162	.141	-2.0	-0.55

Edgar Renteria was one of the first signings last offseason, before the market crashed. Consequently, his contract looks silly now, as he just finished the first year of a two year $18million contract. Nine million of that will come in 2010, with an obvious $500k buyout to be exercised next offseason. The option year in 2010 is for $10.5million. If Renteria falters there more, the Giants could do a lot worse than using Juan Uribe there.

The 2009 'Pitties: Unsung Hero

Jim McLennan — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 01:00:32 -0000

More photos » by Bob Levey - AP

Two of our Unsung Heroes nominees combine: Ryan Roberts singles, scoring Augie Ojeda from third base, against the Astros on Aug. 23.

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Before we head into the next set of nominations, should quickly mention that the Game of the Year award went to the 18-inning marathon against the Padres on June 7th. At five hours, 45 minutes, the longest in franchise history for more than eight years, with the teams combining to use 18 hurlers who threw 592 pitches. Can't really argue with that: it was definitely a memorable contest: as the guy in charge of writing the recap, my major feeling was relief that it was an afternoon game, not an evening one...

We move on to the fourth in our series of awards, for the Unsung Hero of the year. This is the player who made a significant contribution to the team, yet did not receive the appropriate acknowledgment - be that from the media as a whole, or here on the 'Pit - for the services rendered.

Juan Gutierrez: 71 IP,1.5 WAR

Leading the team in pitching appearances and innings of relief work, Gutierrez in 2009 helped make the trade of Jose Valverde look like a good one for the Diamondbacks. The rookie made 65 appearances, and posted an ERA+ of 113 - only two NL relievers aged 25 and younger worked seventy innings with a better ERA+ [Luke Gregerson and Jonathan Broxton]. Outside of a bad ten days in June, when he allowed nine runs in 2.1 innings, his ERA was barely three, and Gutierrez gave up only two home-runs all year - to Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth, so hardly an embarrassment. After the loss of Chad Qualls at the end of August, Juan became the de facto closer, going a perfect 8-for-8 in save chances, and ending the Diamondbacks' season with a perfect ninth in Wrigley on only ten pitches.

Augie Ojeda: 9.6 UZR, 1.5 WAR

It'd be easy to look at Ojeda's offensive numbers - .246/.340/.345, with one homer and 16 RBI in 103 games - and see a complete waste of roster space. But that would severely undervalue Ojeda's contribution to the team, especially on defense. There. Ojeda's UZR rating, combined across three positions, was the second-best on the roster, more than twice as much as any other infielder for the 2009 Diamondbacks. In 489.1 innings between second-base and short-stop, Augie committed just three errors, for a fielding percentage of .988..He was perfect at 2B, and only two major-leaguers played more innings there without an error [Craig Counsell and Nick Punto]. Last year, he was paid $712K; fangraphs.com valued him overall at $6.9m. No wonder the team is looking at bringing Augie back.

Jon Rauch: 54.1 IP, 110 ERA+ (Arizona only)

The odds of Rauch being nominated for any kind of award seemed very bleak after the opening month of the 2009 season: over his first fourteen appearances, opponents were hitting him at a .340 clip, and his ERA was 9.00. However, the seriously unsung Blowfish managed to turn it around, impressing fans not just with his pitching ability, but also the excellent character he displayed, such as pitching both ends of the Florida double-header, getting a save in the nightcap. His ERA the rest of the way with the Diamondbacks was a very respectable 2.91, and many people were sorry to see him traded to the Twins. There, he was a crucial part of Minnesota's surge to the AL Central title, allowing three runs in seventeen games down the stretch.

Ryan Roberts: 100 OPS+, 2.0 WAR

Only three Arizona players with 75+ PAs had a higher OPS+ than Roberts - getting regular games for the first time in his career, his overall numbers were also better than those of his middle-infield colleagues Stephen Drew (89) and Felipe Lopez (98). Ryan stepped it up following the departure of his heavily-tattoed team-mate, hitting .290/.374/.465 after becoming the regular second-baseman, and earning the right to have a shot at the starting job there in 2010. Roberts was Mark Reynolds' main back-up at 3B, and made a dozen starts in right-field too - using Vernon Wells' glove - to give the team a right-handed hitter out there, rather than lefties Gerardo Parra, Alex Romero or Trent Oeltjen. All this, and Roberts also became a father for the first time in August.

As a side-note, anyone know whether Ryan Roberts still qualifies as a rookie or not? I know this sounds surprising - he is 29 now, after all! - but he certainly didn't have enough PA's before this year. It's harder to tell whether he hit the pre-September limit on roster days (45); unless he was sitting on the roster without playing, I'm not inclined to think so. Though he isn't listed as a rookie on ESPN's rookie stats, that isn't really definitive. I'm just trying to work out whether he should be listed as a nominee for the next Pittie.

Poll

Who was Arizona's unsung hero in 2009?

Juan Gutierrez

31 votes

Augie Ojeda

20 votes

Jon Rauch

18 votes

Ryan Roberts

63 votes

132 votes | Poll has closed

NL West in Review: 2nd Basemen

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:00:36 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Felipe Lopez only got in a half season in the NL West, but was he good enough to be the best 2B in the division in 2009?

Browse more photos »

Introduction

Before getting to the second base rankings, I thought I would touch on a peripheral discussion on the accuracy of WAR. It is important to understand that even the WAR found at Fangraphs isn't absolute. The methodology of chosen inputs can make the final numbers vary slightly, or in some cases, drastically. The best example of this is this year's season by Ricky Nolasco, who was a 4.0 WAR pitcher from Fangraphs, but just a 1.0 WAR pitcher via Rally's historical database. The quick explanation is that Fangraphs' input is FIP, while Rally's is more based on actual runs allowed and BABIP.

In my case, I'm using Statcorner's component park factors, while Fangraphs has their own methodology for park effects. That is why some of my numbers will vary some from Fangraphs' data. For instance, I have Orlando Hudson as a 2.52 WAR second baseman, while Fangraphs has him at 2.9 WAR. Which is right? I think it's a matter of preference.

A few weeks ago, Dave Cameron wrote an article entitled WAR: It Works, which defended their methodology by finding a 0.83 correlation between a team's total WAR and final record (for comparison, Pythageorean W-L has a 0.91 correlation). So it does a decent job, but there's some understandable noise in the data.

Method

See the full methodology as explained last week. Last Monday, I omitted stolen bases and caught stealings from my value calculations. It turns out Fangraphs' positional splits are accurate to positional at-bats, and Baseball Reference's positional splits are not accurate for stolen bases and caught stealings. As it turns out, first basemen don't steal much, so that omission made practically no difference.

However, second basemen do tend employ the running game, so I did the extra legwork of utilizing ESPN.com's positional splits to extract SB/CS data. It didn't make a great deal of difference. Four teams saw their team wOBA* increase by .001, while the Rockies dropped by .001. Clint Barmes, who led all NL West 2B in caught stealings with nine, was the only prominent player to be affected, who dropped one slot in the rankings.

Read the results after the jump.

Results

No NL West team had complete personnel consistency at second base, but that didn't stop Arizona from far surpassing the rest of the division with some surprise production from their second-sackers.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Arizona	4	.298	15	49	.372	.448	.362	5.97
2. Los Angeles	6	.283	12	77	.356	.424	.347	3.19
3. Colorado	5	.231	31	98	.281	.441	.301	0.80
4. San Francisco	7	.236	17	80	.281	.329	.281	-0.26
5. San Diego	5	.246	2	58	.315	.314	.292	-1.04

Brendan Scolari's calculations had Arizona projected to be the weakest team at second base this season, but the other four teams fell in line as expected from there.

Your graphical plot of the RAR for all five teams, with the positional RAR set at +2.5.

The second base position was exceedingly interesting, in my opinion. To wit: the most valuable player was also the fifth least valuable fielder; the worst and best fielders came from the same team; the man with the third most homers was the fourth worst second baseman; and, one team had four second basemen in the top seven in the division:

There were 27 total second basemen, and you can view the complete rankings and data here in Google Docs. Here are the top and bottom five:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Orlando Hudson	LAD	627	.285	9	62	.359	.420	.345	-3.7	2.52
2	Felipe Lopez	AZ	375	.305	6	25	.366	.417	.351	3.8	2.25
3	Ryan Roberts	AZ	199	.303	7	16	.374	.506	.383	2.3	1.65
4	Clint Barmes	COL	551	.238	22	69	.286	.437	.301	7.0	1.60
5	Juan Uribe	SFG	131	.274	6	15	.331	.538	.380	3.5	1.25
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
23	Edgar Gonzalez	SDP	54	.234	0	3	.315	.319	.289	-2.1	-0.17
24	Ian Stewart	COL	73	.235	8	26	.274	.632	.349	-7.5	-0.39
25	Luis Rodriguez	SDP	102	.200	1	7	.294	.256	.266	-4.1	-0.48
26	Emmanuel Burriss	SFG	220	.238	0	13	.292	.267	.265	-3.7	-0.53
27	Eugenio Velez	SFG	106	.198	1	8	.226	.287	.231	-4.7	-0.80

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part II: Offense

Jim McLennan — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 16:00:21 -0000

by Gus Ruelas - AP

A photo of that near-mythical beast - a D-back trying to bunt for a hit. File this one of Upton alongside Bigfoot and the Loch Ness Monster.

View full size photo »

Thus far, Arizona's hitting is the clear winner in the SnakePit poll regarding the team's biggest problem this season, so it seems a good place to start our detailed examination of the 2009 season. While the offensive numbers as a whole compared to the rest of the league did improve marginally over the previous couple of campaigns, the Diamondbacks remained stuck near the bottom of the league, finishing the year 14th in team OPS+ [curiously, league average OPS+ this season was only 94 - I'd have expected it to be 100?]

After the jump, we're going to break down the numbers so we can go a bit further than yelling "You suck!" at our hitters. Which positions on the diamond were most responsible? What of our struggles against left-handed starters? How good were the Diamondbacks at "small ball" in 2009? These and ~~many~~ ~~several~~ a couple more questions, will be addressed below...

Who the heck is on first?
Which spots on the diamond proved the biggest black holes of production as far as the 2009 Diamondbacks were concerned? Here's a chart which compares our numbers against the National League averages. I've included runs and RBI from each position, though caution should be used with regard to these, as they are obviously both dependent on other factors, such as batting order and team-mates production. The last two columns are Arizona's OPS+ relative to the league split at that position, and where it ranked in the league.

	NL Average			Diamondbacks
Position	Batting line	R	RBI	Batting Line	R	RBI	sOPS+	Rank
Catcher	.255/.325/.385	62	71	.266/.345/.437	84	79	118	2nd
1st Base	.282/.373/.485	88	102	.228/.321/.396	72	88	70	16th
2nd Base	.268/.337/.406	85	69	.298/.372/.448	91	49	118	3rd
3rd Base	.261/.333/.419	82	84	.247/.336/.487	99	90	116	4th
Shortstop	.268/.327/.396	86	70	.265/.330/.417	80	73	107	5th
Left field	.271/.343/.439	88	82	.265/.317/.402	69	82	84	14th
Center field	.268/.339/.424	95	68	.219/.293/.379	80	61	79	15th
Right field	.264/.339/.442	83	86	.294/.358/.498	95	96	115	2nd
Pinch-hitter	.230/.320/.362	27	30	.190/.283/.345	29	41	88	13th
Pitcher	.138/.179/.176	17	16	.169/.194/.217	16	22	135	2nd

First, the good news. Our pitchers, catchers and right fielders were almost the best in the league at the plate, trailing only the Cubs, Braves and Phillies [thanks to Carlos Zambrano, Brian McCann and Jayson Werth respectively]. There was also solid production out of second base, third base and shortstop positions. SS may come as a bit of a surprise, given Drew's down year, especially against southpaws, but he was still better than average. However, I would not be averse to seeing him platooned with Tony Abreu next year, Abreu starting against LHP. Catcher, third base and right field should take care of themselves in 2010, and even if we have lost Felipe Lopez, Abreu and Ryan Roberts can fight it out for the everyday job.

Then there's the not-so good news. Three positions were basically gurgling vortexes of offensive suck: left-field, center-field and first-base. The last-named had the lowest OPS of any position for Arizona in 2009, which is quite a staggering feat, and despite our hitter-friendly park, finished 16th for BA, OBP and SLG. Part of this may be bad luck, with a BABIP of .274 (overall league average was .299; Chad Tracy's .234 was particularly low), but it has been an ongoing problem for the Diamondbacks. We haven't been ranked in the top half of the league for first-base offensive production since 2005. Getting anything like average from 1B in 2010 would be a big step forward.

The other two positions have the potential to improve, though it's by no means certain. In 2008, Conor Jackson returned an sOPS+ of 100 in left-field, and if he returns to full health, will likely be the regular starter there for Arizona next season. In center-field, what happens will depend on Chris Young. If he can maintain the form he showed after his return from Triple-A in late August, when he hit .263/.351/.508 in 31 games, then we'l be happy. If he doesn't... Well, there's always Gerardo Parra, and Young can platoon with him, getting the southpaw starts. And speaking of which...

Left behind.
The average NL team hit left-handed pitching at almost the same rate overall as they hit right-handers = .256/.330/.407 vs. .260/.331/.409 for an OPS only three points lower against southpaws. Perhaps surprisingly, this was reproduced by the 2009 Diamondbacks, whose OPS were almost identical: .741 vs. .742. I say "surprisingly," because of our team's woeful 17-30 record when facing a left-handed starter; I expected this to be reflected in a significantly-broader gap between the numbers, yet this wasn't so. However, on an individual level, there were some major differences.

On the left-handed batters' side, both Stephen Drew and Gerardo Parra struggled mightily against their sinister colleagues. Drew hit just .200 facing LHP, while Gerardo Parra's power evaporated completely - he is still trying to get his first extra-base career hit off a southpaw, after exactly one hundred at-bats. While the sample-size is pretty small as yet, Brandon Allen is also in the same boat: they carved him up to the tune of 2-for-22 with eleven strikeouts this season. If those three want to be everyday players in 2010, they're going to have to learn to deal with lefties.

On the other hand - literally - there doesn't seem to be much particular problem with right-handed pitching; probably due to the greater volume of at-bats, most players' numbers are close to their overall totals. Chris Young, Eric Byrnes and Conor Jackson had the lowest OPS of our position players there, not exactly something for which we'll be running to stop the presses.

Lords of the fly-balls
The Diamondbacks were one of the most fly-ball prone offenses in the league, sporting a ground-out/air-out ratio of 0.75, compared to a league average of 1.11. Leading the air assault was Chris Young, whose ratio was all the way down at 0.45 - only one other batter in the entire league with over 350 PAs was under 0.60 [Clint Barmes at 0.53]. As we all know, Young had a particularly problem getting the ball out of the infield; 28% of his fly-balls did not trouble the outfielders. That was the most among any NL batter with 250+ PAs; Eric Byrnes came fifth in the same category, at a 24% rate.

One area that definitely seems to present room for improvement is infield hits. There's no doubting that the team has a lot of speed, thanks in part to its youth, but this was not apparently translated into a lot of hits hustled out along the first-base line. We had a league-worst total of 127 there; that's 26 fewer than league average. If we'd got those "missing" hits, our overall BA would have ended up one tick short of the league average. Upton led the team by some way, on 25; Gerardo Parra was next on 14, with Felipe Lopez getting a dozen. Upton's number was good for sixth among right-handed NL batters [LHB have an advantage, being a couple of steps closer to first-base], but I feel some of our other players could be doing better.

This is especially true with bunt hits, where the Diamondbacks managed a total of just ten all season - there were five players in the league who had more than that. In Upton and Reynolds, we have two players who possess a great combination of power and speed - the former makes the infield play back, making them vulnerable to a quick bunt. Do that a few times, and they'll be forced to play in, making it easier to drive the ball past them. Yet there's something not quite right when Miguel Montero and Augie Ojeda both have as many bunt hits as Upton (two), and more than Reynolds (one).

Also in 'small ball,' the team was dead last in the league for successful sacrifice bunts. This is something which would normally please me - I'm rarely a fan of surrendering outs - except that we were not last in sacrifice attempts. Our success rate was a woeful 66%; no other team in the league came in below 70%. While we're talking a small sample size, particular offenders were Chris Young, Trent Oeltjen and Justin Upton who ended 2009 a combined 5-for-13 in sacrifice attempts, compared to a league average 73% success-rate. Maybe they can take lessons from Dan Haren: he was a perfect 9-for-9, with only four NL players having more attempts and 100% success.

Baseball as a non-contact sport
The Diamondbacks led the league for not making contact with the ball: when they swung at a pitch - 23% of the time they came up empty. The absence of Conor Jackson, who had the team's lowest rate in 2008 (14%), hurt team numbers overall. You probably won't be surprised to find out who supplied much of the Sedona Red breeze this year: Mark Reynolds, who didn't make contact on 39% of swings. Ryan Howard (34%) was the sole other batter in the NL with 250+ PAs to have a miss-rate beyond 30%. Justin Upton and Chris Young were also above average, whiffing 28% of the time.

Interestingly, it doesn't seem to be a poor eye that's the problem. Arizona hitters swung at pitches out of the zone 25.1% of the time, hardly above the league median of 24.5%. They were simply below average at getting wood on horsehide, particularly on pitches in the zone. Again, Reynolds was in a class of his own: he missed 29.1% of the time, when swinging at strikes - the next-highest miss rate there in the National League was Brad Hawpe, down at 22.5%. On the other end of the spectrum, Stephen Drew didn't miss often, particularly at strikes. He made contact 92.9% of the time, though was just pipped by Augie Ojeda's 93.0% figure.

Poll

What position are you most concerned about for 2010?

First base

51 votes

Second base

35 votes

Left field

14 votes

Center field

26 votes

126 votes | Poll has closed

Diamondbacks 5, Cubs 2: There never is any end to summer

soco — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 22:33:05 -0000

It's the end for the 2009 Arizona Diamondbacks.

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Well, it's a win.

Our Arizona Diamondbacks end the season by winning the final game and the series, but the Cubs never really put up much during the afternoon. It wasn't a game that was anything but an expression of pride, with neither team going to the playoffs, and everyone on the field seemed ready to be getting on with things.

It was a display of the Three True Outcomes, with the two squads combining for 22 strike outs and each scoring at least half their runs by the long ball. Some of the calls may have been questionable at the plate, but who can blame the umps for wanting to head home, too? Not that the players argued much; it's the last day before summer vacation, and no one cares what the teacher assigns.

The first couple innings were largely quiet, with the two teams trading scoreless innings. The Cubs were the first to get a base runner with Derrek Lee getting a single in the bottom of the first with two outs. Jake Fox promptly struck out on four pitches. He might have been inspired by the D’backs’ top of the first effort: both Stephen Drew and Justin Upton struck out, the latter on his way to four strike out day.

The second inning featured more of the same, with the Diamondbacks looking inept and the Cubs stranding a single from Jeff Baker. The third inning, however, the boys in Sedona Red would strike. Chad Tracy, in perhaps his last game with the Diamondbacks, doubled to fairly shallow left. So Taguchi appeared at first to have made the catch, and that was the way it was called. Perhaps it was luck, but he didn't attempt to pretend he caught the ball and rifled it to second, where Tracy had huffed his way. After a short deliberation, the call was reversed and Tracy had a double, if perhaps a slightly unorthodox one. It didn't seem that he would be advanced, however, with Augie Ojeda, also perhaps in his last game for Arizona, flying out to center and Doug Davis striking out on a pitiful bunt attempt. Stephen Drew, however, would not be denied, and scorched a ball to left. Tracy scored easily, and Taguchi’s errant throw allowed Drew to advance to second.

It looked like so much fun Gerardo Parra decided to join in, who fouled off a couple pitches before driving Drew in with a single to center. Upton would then add to his collection of strike outs for the afternoon, but the Diamondbacks were up 2-0.

To the third. Doug Davis, yet another player that might not be here next year and who had had up to that point a solid game, began to come unglued. Sam Fuld, perhaps the poster child for the disconnect between individual offensive production and the worth of RBIs, would take one strike before hustling to second for a double to lead off the inning. He was then subsequently moved to third by a sacrifice by Ryan Dempster, who was trying to help his own cause for the day. With one out, it seemed certain he would score, and Ryan Theriot tried his best. As a napkin lazily rolled across the infield, he would peck a ball to Davis’ right, who promptly picked it up and caught Fuld in a pickle between home and third. Theriot would sneak to second during the excitement, and although he would get advanced to third on a Davis wild pitch, there he would stay as Davis Houdini shed his shackles by forcing Lee into a grounder. The Diamondbacks were out of the jam.

Miguel Montero would start things off in the top of the fourth with a single, and then be quickly moved to third with a Mark Reynolds double. The stage was set for the suddenly resurgent Chris Young, who picked out a three wood and drove a shot to left center, which would effectively be all the Diamondbacks would need for the day to be triumphant.

At this point it was strike outs and a halfhearted attempt by the Cubs to salvage the last game of 2009. They would cut the lead to 5-1 with a solo home run by Fuld, who, as noted by Jim, who has dubious distinction of going the most career plate appearances without an RBI by a non-pitcher. He trails only Gene Good, who had 135 without an RBI for the 1906 Boston Beaneaters. The second RBI was considerably easier to come by as he sacrificed Reed Johnson in to score in the bottom of the seventh. 5-2 was the score, and 5-2 it would remain.

A few notes on the remaining three innings: the Diamondbacks had no trouble with the eighth, perhaps an attempt to deny there ever was a problem this season with that inning. Eric Byrnes, one of a half a dozen or more players to be looking at the search for a new team, popped out. In perhaps the most “fuzzy feeling” moment, however, came to end the Diamondbacks’ ninth inning. Upton came to the plate with two outs and Parra standing at second., batting average sitting at .300 square. An out would bring it down to .2998, technically a .300, and the record books might never notice the difference. Parra, however, was looking out for his outfield comrade. As Upton took a ball, he would take off for first, daring the catcher to throw him out. Geovany Soto obliged, and .300, true .300, non-qualified .300 was saved. AJ Hinch may have had the bitter beer face for the act, but Upton obviously appreciated it, giving Parra a hug as the game ended.

And really, it's this type of moment that reaffirms what's great about sports. Sure, who doesn't want to be a winner? But this human element, where a friend did a selfless act for a friend, transcends home runs or stolen bases. This completely unscripted moment is free of the framing that often makes equal scenes in fiction seem saccharine and hollow. It won't be recorded in books, or compiled in any highlight reel. Many of us might forget it as the years drive forward, or never pass it on. But it will remain.

So maybe 2009 wasn't a successful season. They often aren't. The Diamondbacks built something here today, this year. We, as fans, built something here. We won't know what it is, not until long after the winter comes. But the summer will keep rolling on, long green meadows with dusty infields where heroes hit long, long home runs, make diving catches, come back to the game after seeming to lose everything, and help each other to .300.

[Click to see full graph at fangraphs.com]

Master of his domain: Doug Davis +27.9

Also present: Gerardo Parra +10.7

Well, not everyone is Babe Ruth: Doug Davis (batting) -5.6

Mr. Golden Sombrero: Justin Upton -4.7

A fairly serene and talkative GDT, with 14 users generating 500 comments. Only one broke the century mark, and I hear he's pretty much the most awesome dude ever. Also present: Azreous, unnamedDBacksfan, snakecharmer, Fiona, hotclaws, Jim McLennan, pygalgia, kishi, NASCARbernet, Wailord, 4 Corners Fan, Giannaros, Wimb.

That's it for the Diamondbacks officially. From this point on we shoot without a script, make for uncharted territory, and yada yada yada. Stay tuned for lots of off-season coverage, ranging from analysis of players or team statistical subsets, to a report from the year 1860, investigative reporting about the new Spring Training site, a lament against the worship of amateur sport, and more! Until then, I'm your host, soco, saying goodnight.

Only 133 days until pitchers report.

Diamondbacks 7, Padres 4: Win One for the Buckner

DbacksSkins — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 23:24:26 -0000

More photos » by AARON J. LATHAM - AP

Chad Tracy watches what might be his last home run at Chase Field.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks Professional Base Ball Club gathered at a small field in the warehouse district of downtown Phoenix today for a friendly with the San Diego Padres Professional Base Ball Club. Several spectators came out to watch the match, as it was the Club's final outing in Arizona until early next year. Throwing on behalf of the Arizona side was a young fellow named William Buckner, and for the San Diego side, an immigrant gentleman by the name of Edward Mujica. Hitting "home runs", an exciting happenstance wherein a batter hits a ball completely out of the field of play, were a down-home North Carolina boy named Chad Tracy as well as a Mexican-American fellow named Adrian Gonzalez. Registering a win for our dear old home side was Buckner, while Mujica notched his 5th loss of the year for San Diego. Details of this jovial event can be found by turning to the athletics page of this news paper.

Record: 68-88. Pace: 71-91. Change on last season: -9

Billy Buckner pitched seven innings of three hit baseball to get the win, but narrowly missed tossing his second quality start at home this season. Buckner was perfect the first time through the order, but the first three batters in the Padres lineup all scored before Buckner recorded an out the second time through, on a walk to Tony Gwynn, a David Eckstein single severely misplayed by Justin Upton, and Adrian Gonzalez's 40th home run of the season, a pool shot. Buckner quickly settled down to get the next nine batters in order, but a leadoff walk to Chase Headley to start the 7th inning scored on a double by Drew Macias to rob Buckner's chances at a QS. However, Buckner struck out Henry Blanco and Everth Cabrera to end the inning and leave with the lead. Billy fell one short of his career high with 7 strikeouts and came within one out of his longest career outing, going 7 innings. He allowed only 3 hits and 2 walks, but 4 of those 5 baserunners came around to score.

Esmerling Vasquez came on to pitch the 8th, and after going 3-0 on Luis Durango, Mark Reynolds came out to the mound to talk to Vasquez. Whatever he said must have worked, because he came back to strike out Durango and followed with a groundout by Gwynn. Eckstein was able to squirt a ground ball through the infield, and after LOOGY Scott Schoeneweis failed to retire Adrian Gonzalez, AJ Hinch brought in Juan Gutierrez for a 4-out save. Non-closer Gutierrez immediately struck out Chase Headley to end the dreaded 8th inning without a run, and pitched around singles by Blanco and Cabrera in the 9th to get his 8th save of the year and grab saves in consecutive games for the first time since the 15th of this month, and only his second 1+ inning save of the season; his only other coming on May 26th against these same Padres in 5 outs.

On the offensive side of the game, Chad Tracy was the star, coming a triple away from the cycle in his probable final Dbacks home game, scoring two and driving in himself on the homer. Batting behind Tracy, Augie Ojeda, who very well might have played in HIS last Dbacks home game, also had three hits with two doubles, driving in three and scoring two. No other Diamondback had more than a single hit, although only Reynolds went ohfer among the starters. Justin Upton reached 3x on a single and two walks. Stephen Drew went 1-5 but made it count, driving in two runs on a double in the bottom of the 6th to give the Dbacks the lead.

Both teams were scoreless until the 4th inning. Tracy and Augie hit back to back doubles and Buckner helped himself out with a single to make the score 3-2 in favor of the visitor, while Chad's solo homer to the pool area in the bottom of the 6th tied the game. The 3rd video review of the homestand confirmed the homer, after a fan apparently reached up above Tony Gwynn's glove. Gwynn argued for interference, but the crew chief disagreed upon video review. Augie singled and Chris Young walked in front of Droo, who gave the home team a lead they wouldn't relinquish. Our Venezuelan dynamic duo of Miguel Montero and Gerardo Parra both singled to allow Augie to drive in the final two runs of the game, capping the scoring at 7-4 in favor of the good guys.

[Click to enlarge at fangraphs.com]
Badass of the Day: Augie Ojeda, +25.4%
Also mavericky: Stephen Drew, +18.4%; Chad Tracy, +15.9%
Boarding the bus to Reno: Mark Reynolds, -11.3%

It was a quick game, just 2 hours and 33 minutes, and finished our season series with San Diego at a satisfying 11-7 in favor of the Snakes. Attendance was just over 30k souls for the last home game of the season, down nine thousand from Mark Reynolds Night but still third highest for a Sunday home game this season and the highest since August 16th against the Dodgers.

A Wolf-like 359 comments in the gameday thread, led by soco, the only poster to break triple digits, followed by me and hotclaws. Posters included Azreous, soco, emilylovesthedbacks, hotclaws, DbacksSkins, Wailord, mrs snakepit, NASCARbernet, kishi, katers, and a cameo appearance by ChrisHansen. Now, all of you should go watch the home team Arizona Cardinals beat AJforAZ's Indianapolis Colts on national TV!

[Update: audio clippage. At the moment, from AJ Hinch talking before the game, reviewing the "disappointing" 2009 season, but saying he believes we can contend next season.]

Audio courtesy of KTAR 620

D(ro)o We Have Cause for Concern?

IHateSouthBend — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 22:29:18 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

It's been this kind of a season for Stephen Drew. But do his numbers give us any indication of a turnaround next year?

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Amidst a year full of disappointments flowing from every orifice of this team, one of the more prevalent disappointments as of late has been the continued decline of Stephen Drew, Mr. Extra Bases of 2008. Obviously, his season hasn't been as bad overall as the seasons of Eric Byrnes, Chris Young, Chris Snyder, Chad Tracy, and Drew even possesses a higher OPS in '09 than Gerardo Parra, whose rookie campaign has generally been thought of as a success, but it's bad enough to make me wonder why they haven't placed anybody more suitably-qualified in the second-spot in the lineup on an everyday basis (MiggyMo?).

However, I believe that his struggles have received either as much or more ire as all of those players for a wide-ranging yet strong list of reasons. After a crappy first couple of weeks to start the season, nobody had the expectations for Byrnes that they had for Drew after Drew's stellar 2008. CY's season has been a complete disaster, but he has showed signs of turning it around and at least becoming a servicable bat in center field as of late, whereas Drew has not, and at least CY has been healthy all year. Snyder's injuries have plagued him all season, but the impact of his downfall has been padded by Miguel Montero's immense success, while our only backup plan currently on the roster for Drew for this season and 2010 (or at least until September 2010 when Pedro Ciriaco may be called up) is Augie Ojeda, who likely won't be on the roster in 2010 for lack of ability. As the case with Byrnes, anything we received from Tracy's injury-riddled knees was considered to be extra-credit for a team that had become accustomed to him being on the disabled list, while expectations for Drew were high. Parra's in the midst of his rookie season, whereas Drew's broke into the big-leagues with 59 games in 2006.

It's also worth noting that among that list of players, Byrnes, Snyder, and Tracy are likely to be gone by Opening Day 2010, and CY and Parra will each be fighting for playing time in a very crowded outfield picture for 2010. Drew is being handed the everyday shortstop job on a silver platter. The only shortstops on Reno's roster at the end of the season were Taylor Harbin, called up for a short stint from Hi-A Visalia and definitely not ready for the majors, and respective over-30 major-league washouts Ed Rogers and Abraham Nunez. Further, this isn't a club that has the luxury of spending money on an above-average stop-gap backup option for a position that is supposed to have a key part of its nucleus under control for multiple years stationed there, especially since the position is one that often is worth a high premium.

So with the intro under the belt, time to get into the stats themselves that lead us worried and try to see whether Drew has been subjct to issues of luck, if his struggles are less temporary issues, or a combination of both, as well as to see if he has made improvements in any areas of his game this season amidst the general feeling of disappointment that hovers over his '09 campaign. All stats are before today's game against the Padres, which, at the time of this sentence, he is 0-3 in with a two runners left on base, including one in scoring position.

SEASON	G	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	K	BB	K/BB	H	2B	3B	HR	ISO	K-RATE	BB-RATE	BABIP
2008	152	.291	.333	.502	.835	110	109	41	2.7:1	178	44	11	21	.211	16.7%	6.3%	.322
2009	121	.258	.321	.433	.754	93	78	46	1.7:1	122	27	10	12	.175	15.0%	8.9%	.283

Admittedly, these stats are a little confusing at times, and people will certainly be trying to balance the negative effects his ISO drop against the positive effects of his decrease in strikeout rate and increase in walk rate in an attempt to judge the overall effects on his numbers. To try to put this in perspective, I re-calculated Drew's line using the same at-bat (473 in 2009), home run, strikeout, and sacrifice fly (6 in 2009) totals Drew has accumulated in 2009, but with 2008's BABIP, using the following formula:

(H - HR) / (AB - HR - K + SF) = .322 -- (x - 12) / (473 - 12 - 78 + 6) = .322 -- x = (.322)(473 - 12 - 78 + 6) + 12 -- x = (.322)(389) + 12 -- x = 125.258 + 12

So, rounding remainder to the nearest hit, we find that x = 137, an improvement of 15 hits from his current 2009 total of 122. Since he keeps the same number of walks per plate-appearance and strikeouts per plate-apperanace (none of the three variables were affected by the re-calculation of hits), then his OBP-BA and SLG-BA (a.k.a. ISO) also remain unchanged. This means that Drew's line comes out to:

Batting Average: 137 / 473 = .290

On-Base Percentage: .321 - .258 = .063 -- .290 + .063 = .353

Slugging Percentage: ISO = .175 -- .290 + .175 = .465

On-Base Plus Slugging: .353 + .465 = .818

OPS+: (93 / .754) = (x / .818) -- (93 / .754)(.818) = x -- x = 101

This adjustment of BABIP by 39 points gives Drew an adjusted OPS increase of 64 points, and an OPS+ increase of 8 points, taking him from a below league-average offensive producer to being barely above league-average. However, there are two very important points to make here. The first point is that Drew's BABIP isn't necessarily destined to rise to his 2008 total again. He could spend the rest of his career with a BABIP around the .280 mark like he has now, and would be a much less valuable producer. The second point to make is that even with this adjustment, while it makes Drew's season a lot more palatable, it does not make Drew's season as good as his 2008 campaign, in which his OPS was .835 and OPS+ was 110. Thus, his raw power and on-base numbers from 2009, before the luck factor is involved, are inferior to those of last season.

In my opinion, I don't think it's wise to depend on Drew's BABIP rising back to its 2008 total, as .280 and .320 both appear to be fairly evenly distanced from a typical BABIP (although I could, of course be wrong). If this is the case it's up to Drew to regain his Isolated Power Output from 2008, something less to do with luck and more to do with skill. If that ISO from 2008 was a fluke, then it's easy to imagine that we'll be in for yet another rough year from Drew next season. Drew needs to reach that 20/40/10 HR/2B/3B potential that he was acclaimed as a top-prospect for in order to be an everyday, top-of-the-lineup (probably best for the two-spot in the lineup w/Upton & Reynolds in place) player. If that isn't there, he is exactly what he has been this year, a sixth-or-seventh-hitter miscast as a leadoff or second-spot hitter. Do we have cause for concern? That would be a painful and depressing yes, we do.

Fire Joe Morgan's Brave New Frontier: Mocking Good Players

devil_fingers — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 16:33:36 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

Short, fast, white, no power, and a Yankee: I wonder what the Fire Joe Morgan guys will think of Brett Gardner? Whatever it is, I'm sure it's backed up with plenty of numbers!

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Let's get one thing straight. I love(d) Fire Joe Morgan as much as the next pretentious internet baseball fan. You can look through my various crappy postings and find their influence all over the place.

I love Joe Posnanski's stuff, too, so much that I wrote a Joe Posnanski Drinking Game a while back as a loving tribute (although I'm snot sure he took it that way... assuming that he knows I exist). But sometimes Joe writes things that bug me (e.g., his bizarre apologies for Pete Rose) and I make smartass remarks about it and people think I "don't like" Poz/JoPo. So let's get one thing clear:

JOE POSNANSKI IS MY FAVORITE SPORTS JOURNALIST, AND, NO, THAT ISN'T INTENDED TO DAMN HIM WITH FAINT PRAISE.

It's the same thing with the Fire Joe Morgan guys. The blog was great. I had a very brief and friendly email exchange with Junior a long time ago (that he undoubtedly doesn't remember). At one time I liked The Office so much that I wrote an extremely long post comparing the 2008 Royals with The Office. And even though the post-3rd season drop off of that show somewhat resembles the 2009 Royals, I still like it, them, and the Royals (for some reason).

I LIKE FIRE MORGAN AND GENERALLY FIND THE WRITERS TO BE FUNNY

But a person can only take so much. Like many of you, I am enjoying today's FJM Reunion at Deadspin. But then I read Junior's post about some other blogger's post about "scrappy" players. Yeah, I agree with Junior's underlying point that "scrappy" doesn't make a player good or not. I also realize his main beef is with the writer of the post, not the players. I realize how silly and predictable it is for some blogger (me) to write a quasi-Fisking of another blog's Fisking of another blog. Given that the intertubez are a lot like junior high, I also realize how stupid it is for me to "take on" a writer who is smarter than me, funnier than me, and (most of all) more popular than me. But I just can't resist. I mean, maybe the FJM guys somehow missed my award-winning (if after-the-fact) article on Walks, Defense and the New Moneyball, but I was late to the game myself. An aside about Nyjer Morgan (4.9 WAR this season) in Ken Tremendous's introductory post this morning is one thing... but then Junior has to go and pour salt in the wound...

Okay, it's not all that bad. I fact, I have no problem with most of it, even if it's a bit tired after all this time. Junior is right about many of the guys. I'll just give the Bleacher Report blogger's rankings, then a gist of Junior's comments.

#10. Eric Byrnes is terrible at this point in his career. Yup.

#9. Nate McLouth It's interesting how Junior doesn't have much to say about Nate McLouth other than the blogger he's ripping on wrote something "boring" about McLouth. For one thing, McClouth is a decent (>3 war) player... but no comments about McLouth's joke of a Gold Glove award in 2008? Not a huge deal, but a bad portent of things to come.

#8. Augie Ojeda. Funny comments about the stupidity of saying "knows how to play the game." Ojeda is actually a good defender, even if he can't hit, so he's a decent utility/stopgap guy.

#7. Aaron Rowand, a player not as good as he once was. Right on, if gratuitous.

#6. Reed Johnson, another crappy utility guy.

#5. David Eckstein. What a surprise (both for the inclusion and Junior's comments). Junior (admittedly) isn't breaking any new ground. But you know what's interesting? Certain media members have no doubt been annoying in their deification of Eckstein, but in terms of actual value, prior to 2008 he always delivered more value than he was paid for to his teams. A 4.0 War season for the World Champion 2002 Angels is pretty impressive. But even his stopgap 1.5 WAR years are good for the money -- and that's the main lesson, post-Moneyball, of sabermetrics -- a player being "good" or "bad" for his team is finally relative not only to what he contributes on the field, but how he's paid relative to that value. I'm not saying that Eckstein was/is actually a great player, of course, and FJM got a lot of great laughs out of mocking the way he was and is glorified by some sportswriters. But the truth is, having David Eckstein on your team at those salaries fro 2002-2007 was a pretty good idea. And that's a big difference in how the sabermetrically-savvy fans (the "real" sabermetricians always knew this) think in 2009 as opposed to, say, 2006.

#4. Chone Figgins. Junior says "Chone Figgins is pretty good." He's right. Looking at the FJM archives, you see they aren't that hard on Chone, and kind of like him. But that's an interesting contrast with

#3. Brett Gardner. This is the big one. It's awesome. Junior writes:

It's got to be tough when you're the worst player on your team and you arbitrarily get picked to be on a list of scrappy players because you're super white and you're the worst player on your team. He would also be the worst player on like 12 other teams.

I'm kidding, of course. A-Rod is the worst player on the Yankees, and in baseball history in general.

If you write any article about baseball and it's not a list of terrible players and Brett Gardner is in your article, you shouldn't write the article.

Love the A-Rod non sequitur. So 2006. But, um "Brett Gardner is terrible?" Now, I admit I haven't looked at Gardner's WARP3 or VORP or whatever advanced stats FJM liked to throw down back in the day (note that when I got my appendix removed earlier this summer, I also didn't go to a barber), but when I look at Gardner's WAR I somehow fail to see "terrible" player. 2.0 WAR is about average over a full season. Gardner is 2.0 WAR in only 248 PAs so far this season, and 1.1 WAR in 141 PAs in 2008. If you prefer comparing to average, Gardner has been above average both seasons.

Now, granted, less than 400 PA over two seasons is a very small sample. I don't want to be guilty of assuming current performance = true talent (I'm sure Junior is using a very sophisticated in-season projection tool). But still, he was projected at around .315 wOBA before the season, and even if you think he's "only" about a +12 defender in CF (his career UZR/150 is about +27), that's still a league average player. How is that "terrible?" How is that worse than Jose Molina? Heck, 2.0 WAR it's half a win better than his teammate Melky Cabrera has put up in much greater playing time. It's also about as good as FJM hero Adam Dunn has been this season, and way better than he was last season. I love Adam Dunn as a hitter, but as a player he's barely average... well, he's a perfect avatar of the prime FJM era, as Dunn was undervalued as a player at the same time VORP was a decent "total value" stat. Or when The Office was one of the better shows on TV.

Again, it's a small sample. Brett Gardner probably isn't quite as good as the stats have him as being so far this season. Flukes happen. For example, I once found something in an episode of Parks and Recreation funny. But you can't just say that Gardner is terrible because somebody called him "scrappy" and fits the "profile" (short, white, no power) of the guys that FJM loves to hate. And writing a column ripping someone else for not paying attention to stats while calling a player who is above average both offensively and defensively so far this season is just, well, something just like what FJM would have called out "back in the day."

#2. Shane Victorino. Apparently, nine Albert Pujols would beat a team with Shane Victorino on it. Outside of the question of how Albert $8 would do in CF, HAHA VICTORINO, YOU AREN'T AS GOOD AS ALBERT PUJOLS! YOU SUCK! Way to take down that moron. 3.4 WAR = TEH SUCK

#1. Dustin Pedroia. Junior's right. Pedroia helps his team by being good. Weird how Junior doesn't bring up Pedroia's "whiteness" here. It's probably because that isn't a factor for Red Sox fans (like the writers of FJM), given the racial tolerance and openness historically displayed by the Red Sox franchise, fans, and the city of Boston as a whole.

Then he ends with another rant about Eckstein, which isn't as fun as it should be, perhaps because it is about as tired as a sitcom love story after 5-6 seasons.

Okay, this wasn't as fun as I thought it would be (although it was a lot more enjoyable than the reliever post I've been muddling with for a few days). The Gardner thing was the only truly egregious silliness. Unless they bring up Nyjer Morgan again...

It's nice to have you guys back. If by some weird coincidence you manage to see this, please don't hurt me. But do take a look at FanGraphs when you get the chance. I hear this "sabermetrics" stuff is pretty cool.