SB Nation - Edgar Gonzalez

The 2009 'Pitties: Game of the Year

Jim McLennan — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:00:35 -0000

by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Gerardo Parra tried to dodge a pounding after a walk-off hit in the 10th inning against the Dodgers on August 15th.

Not quite as close a poll for the second of the 2009 'Pitties. The B-bullpen of Jon Rauch, Esmerling Vasquez, Clay Zavada and Leo Rosales swept majestically to a collective victory, for their nine innings of no-hit ball in the marathon against the Padres. The same game is also nominated in this week's category.

One of the good things about baseball having a 162-game schedule is that, even in a disappointing year like the Diamondbacks experienced in 2009, there will still be contests which we remember with great fondness [contrast any 'Game of the Year' poll for the Detroit Lions last season, which I imagine made kinda wretched reading...] Arizona still won 70 games, and included among them were blowouts, squeakers, comebacks, slugfests, pitching duels and marathons.

After the jump, you'll find our selection of the five best games of the 2009 season described in detail - the link goes to the recap of the contest in question.

May 16th: Max finally tastes victory, vs. ATL

Only twice since 2002 has the team scored a dozen or more and shutout the opposition - oddly, both times were against the Braves. Here, a 12-0 victory was important, not just for the offensive outburst, but because it gave Max Scherzer his first career win, in his fourteenth start. However, it was only late on that it became a sure thing: when he was lifted for a PH in the seventh, after six innings of four-hit ball, it was only 3-0 to Arizona. However, the offense then piled onto the Atlanta bullpen, tagging them fror nine earned runs over the final seven outs, capped by Chris Snyder's grand-slam in the ninth. This was the largest winning margin for the Diamondbacks since 2006.
May 23rd: biggest comeback of the year, vs. OAK

Arizona had more than their fair share of opposition recoveries inflicted on them in 2009 (44 blown leads in all, ahead only of Washington in the NL), but this was our biggest comeback of the year. We trailed the A's 5-1 going into the eighth, having been stifled by, of all people, former D-back Edgar Gonzalez. However, another ex-Arizonan, veteran Russ Springer, was tagged for three runs without retiring a batter, and we tied things up on a two-run Chad Tracy double. We scored three times in the 11th, but Chad Qualls made it interesting, allowing two runs to score and putting the tying run on third with one out. A ground-ball double-play allowed him and Arizona to escape, 8-7.
June 7th: the game without end, vs SDP

I think the fangraph is all we need here, as we blew a 6-0 lead, allowing five runs in the ninth, then traded zeroes with San Diego until the 18th, where Mark Reynolds' three-run shot off a utility infielder won it for the Diamondbacks, five hours and 45 minutes after the first pitch. Madness? This is Petco!
August 15th: the late, late show, vs. LAD

Jonathan Broxton came into the ninth with 25 saves in 29 opportunities, and having allowed just two home runs in his previous 97 innings, going all the way back to June 2008. With a 3-1 lead - Hiroki Kuroda having out-duelled Doug Davis - things looked bleak for the home outfit, especially after Gerardo Parra's K reduced our WP to 5%. However, Mark Reynolds then deposited the first delivery he saw into the bleachers, and three pitches later, Miguel Montero followed suit, tying the game up. Parra then redeemed himself, driving in the winning run with one down in the bottom of the tenth, sealing the Diamondbacks' first series victory over the Dodgers for more than a year.
August 29th: Garland and Upton and Reynolds, oh my! vs. HOU

Seven shutout innings from Jon Garland - not just his best start in a Diamondbacks' jersey, but also his last before getting traded to LA. Mark Reynolds became the first Arizona batter since 2001 to hit forty home-runs in a season. And Justin Upton hit his 21st blast, four days after no longer being 21 himself. On Luis Gonzalez Appreciation Day and in front of the fourth-biggest home crowd of the year to that point, the D-backs rolled to a 9-0 win over the Astros. This was SnakePitFest 2: Clay Zavada pitched a scoreless eighth in front of the mustached ranks of the Zavada Brigade and team president Derrick Hall stopped by to say hello. Yeah, not too bad a day, all told...

Poll

What was the Game of the Year for the Diamondbacks in 2009?

May 16th: Max finally tastes victory, vs. ATL

5 votes

May 23rd: biggest comeback of the year, vs. OAK

13 votes

June 7th: the game without end, vs SDP

25 votes

August 15th: the late, late show, vs. LAD

14 votes

August 29th: Garland and Upton and Reynolds, oh my! vs. HOU

10 votes

67 votes | Poll has closed

Could it be...? No, it can't be... OMG it really is! It's a Minor League Update!!!

grover — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 13:00:25 -0000

Hello again.

Work called me away for a while and it’s been tough getting back into the groove of things. For those who don’t know, I’m a wildland fire fighter and August got a little busy for those in my career field. So when I disappear again for a couple weeks just remember… I envy your access to in-door plumbing.

Anyways, I want to focus this week’s minor league update on the 40 man roster and the options that are going to have to be decided upon in the coming months. Why do this now instead of waiting until September 1st? The topic tickles my fancy, that’s why. As I seem to have (once again) misplaced my Cap o’ Omnipotence I’m forced to resort to basic logic and common sense reckoning to try and deduce the future roster.

That’s right… none of what I’m about to tell you is guaranteed!

The way I see it, there are 28-29 spots on the future 40 man roster all but guaranteed. On the pitching side, Brett Anderson, Andrew Bailey, Jerry Blevins, Dallas Braden, Craig Breslow, Trevor Cahill, Joey Devine, Gio Gonzalez, Jeff Gray, Jay Marshall, Vin Mazzaro, Clayton Mortensen, Josh Outman, Henry Rodriguez, Michael Wuertz and Brad Ziegler all seem certain to have jobs in the Oakland organization next year. That’s 16 pitchers of varying combinations of success/cheapness/options that aren’t going to be released just to make room on the roster. (There’s a pretty good chance that Outman will open next season on the 60-day DL, opening up an additional spot on the 40 man.) Santiago Casilla and Edgar Gonzalez are both arbitration eligible next season but neither pitched so well that the A’s are going to be eager to give them big pay raises, which could mean either or both players could end up as trade fodder or possibly even released. Dana Eveland is still on the 40 man roster as well, but his poor performance led to a demotion that will keep him from seeing any arby money next season. Unfortunately, Mr. Eveland’s suckitude forced the A’s to use his last option this season; meaning he can’t be stashed on Sacramento’s roster next season without first passing through waivers. Chances are Eveland isn’t going to be one of the 5 best SP candidates for the A’s come Opening Day 2010 and as a lefty with a pulse he’d probably get snapped up by some other team desperate for pitching. Therefore, I think this is good-bye to Mr. Eveland.

As it just so happens, it looks as if the A’s are going to need maybe 3 openings on the 40 man roster just to protect some arms that should attract a lot of interest in the Rule 5 draft. Pedro Figueroa hasn’t advanced past High-A ball but he’s a lefty with a low-90’s fastball. Brad Kilby is another lefty who’s put up back-to-back quality campaigns in Sacramento’s bullpen. Fautino De Los Santos is still trying to bounce back from 2008 TJ surgery but he wouldn’t last long if the A’s made him available for the Rule 5 draft. Jason Ray is in the same boat but I don’t think there’s much risk of someone grabbing him and keeping him on a 25 man roster all season.

There’s also a chance the A’s might be interested in bringing back Brett Tomko or Justin Duchscherer next season. Dan Giese should be fully recovered in time for next season; maybe the A’s are still interested in him as a swing man type. Plus, guys like Sam Demel and James Simmons could be knocking on the door next season and they’d need a spot on the 40 man to do so. Like I said, I could see 3-4 spots going to the guys I just listed and we haven’t even looked outside the organization to find help.

The hitting side of things is even more in flux.

Kurt Suzuki, Landon Powell, Eric Chavez (who?) Mark Ellis, Daric Barton, Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham, Rajai Davis, Scott Hairston, Ryan Sweeney, Jack Cust, Tommy Everidge, Cliff Pennington and Gregorio Petit have spots on the 40 man roster. (Although I’m not sure if Petit has another minor league option available to him in 2010… if someone has a conclusive answer I’d appreciate hearing it.) C Anthony Recker is the most prominent bat in the A’s system that would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter and I’m not sure if the A’s would consider his departure to be a great loss. So any Recker fans out there can protect him on their 40 man lists, but I’m thinking the A’s leave him off the protected roster. Chris Denorfia and Eric Patterson are both out of options, so if they aren’t in Oakland come Opening Day there’s a good chance they’ll be playing for another organization in 2010. I can maybe see Patterson as a back-up at 2B and in the outfield but I’ve got to squint and angle my head to one side to see it. I think it’s more likely that the A’s will try to bring back Adam Kennedy to serve as a deluxe back-up option/veteran mentor type.

The real twist comes when you consider the minor league bats that the A’s have in AA or higher that aren’t yet on the 40 man roster. Sean Doolittle, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, Corey Brown, Chris Carter and Brett Wallace highlight the next wave of Oakland offense… which could be much more refreshing than the current ripple in the still waters we’ve experienced as of late. Yet again we haven’t looked outside the current organization to determine if maybe there’s another bat to be had.

So bring back Kennedy, add the newbies and you’re looking at 38-39 players on the 40 man roster before the Rule 5 draft. Does anyone see any glaring omissions?

Until the next time...

Rockies Ineffectual Offensively, Lose 3-1 to Padres

Jabberwocky — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 05:37:56 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

Yeah, we lost to these guys tonight. Weak.

Browse more photos »

Tonight's loss to the Padres was more disappointing than anything else. The Rockies' (49-42) offense was shut down by the Padres' pitching staff (only four hits), which this season is a pretty rare occurrence. Granted, Petco Park kept a couple of Colorado fly balls from being homers--which certainly would have been nice to have.

Altogether though, the Rockies just didn't have too many chances, and Brad Hawpe (who did double in the Rockies' only run in the first) grounded into two double plays to ruin those scoring opportunities.

Both Kevin Correia and Jason Hammel pitched well (though Jason did walk three and hit three--Edgar Gonzalez in the head) but neither got a decision. Those honors went to Greg Burke (2-1) and Joel Peralta (0-3)--who gave up a homer to Coloradan Chase Headley in the seventh. Peralta just didn't look good tonight--that's the danger of trusting Joel Peralta with anything of importance.

With the loss, the Rockies remained 0.5 GB in the Wild Card standings (SF also lost) and lost a game to LA (8 GB). The Rockies can still get a series win and 50 wins tomorrow against Padres prospect Mat Latos, who is making his major league debut, countering with Jason Marquis.

via www.fangraphs.com

Jukebox Heroes

Jason Hammel (.199 WPA), Todd Helton (.166)

William Hung Impersonators

Joel Peralta (-.270), Brad Hawpe (-.196), Troy Tulowitzki (-.164)

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How good is Oakland's 2009 Rotation, With a Cameo By Pythagoras and More Thoughts on Pitcher Value

devil_fingers — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 13:30:08 -0000

The As look like they are going for it this year. Previous offseason and 2008 mid-season trades of Nick Swisher, Rich Harden, and Joe Blanton (among others) helped restock the farm system. After the 2008 season, they traded for Matt Holliday (stud outfielder in a contract year and represented by Scott Boras -- in other words, he ain't gonna be in Oakland in 2010, whatever else happens) and signed Jason Giambi. They clearly needed the offensive boost these players should provide in and around Jack Cust. They also added Orlando Cabrera at shortstop, having clearly given up on Bobby Crosby ever reaching what used to appear to be his potential. These are not the moves of a rebuilding team.

Whether or not that is "enough" on offense is one question (along with how Cust and Giambi can both play without killing the As on defense). But the real question out there is if their pitching is enough, specifically their starting rotation. They certainly didn't add any "big names" to the rotation, and it isn't exactly clear who is gong to be in it. How bad (or good) will their starting pitching be? Drawing on different projection systems as well as the using some of the methods mentioned in my earlier Thoughts on Pitcher Value (with an "improved" update), let's see.

Methodology

[This next section goes over some points of methodology in figuring pitcher value, adding on to my earlier post. If that bores you or is old hat to yuou, please feel free to skip down the section on "The 2009 Oakland Rotation.")

In my earlier post, (which you might want to read if the idea if "replacement level" or "FIP" or the like are new ideas), I gave a very simple way of determining a pitcher's value above replacement level. In brief: for any player, value is rate over replacement times playing time.

For a starting pitcher, replacement level was defined as 128% of the lgERA (whether one uses ERA or FIP). So to get a pitcher's runs (saved) above replacement, we used the following formula (here using FIP as our rate stat; FIP is always scaled to that the lgFIP = lgERA):

((lgFIP*1.28)-playerFIP)*(IP/9.0)

There is nothing wrong with that formula, really. To get wins above replacement level (WAR), simply divide by the runs-to-wins ratio for that season. It's usually around 10 although if you want to figure it out for each season (like I did for every league and season through 2008 with MySQL) the formula is

(lgRA*2)+1.5

This is a fine way of doing a pitcher value analysis. But if you look around some sabermetric sites, you may notice another way of valuing pitchers using "win percentage," i.e., talking about certain pitchers as ".520" pitcher or .420 pitchers or whatever. You many think, "Hey, I thought we all agreed that pitcher wins are one of the worst stats out there." You'd be right. What is being talked about is what the pitcher's winning percentage would be given league average run support.

How does one figure this? It's funny... I asked and asked and asked... and while people were always eager to answer all my other questions, I guess I just asked at the wrong time, or it seemed to obvious. But it is a simple answer, to here it is, and I hope others can find this easily, as I could not.

It is done simply adapting of the Pythagorean Win Expectation discovered by Bill James. James found that one could roughly estimate what percentage of games a team would win by using

Runs Scored^2/(Runs Scored^2+Runs Allowed^2)

More recent analysts have found that 1.83 is a more precise exponent, and there are more sophisticated versions like PythagPat, but we'll keep it simple for now.

It's easy enough, then, to apply this to pitchers. Assuming the 1.83 exponent and that the pitcher has average support, the formula is

League Average ERA (or RA or FIP or whatever)) ^1.83/(League Average ERA^1.83 + Pitcher ERA^1.83)

Let's run through a calculation for last season.

Let's take former Athletics (and current Brave) pitcher Tim Hudson's 2008. When he was healthy, he posted a 3.83 FIP. The NL league average ERA was 4.30. So

4.3^1.83/(4.3^1.83+3.83^1.83) = .533 win percentage (rounded)

Originally, this post went on and on about methodology, but but it was getting too long and non-As focused, which is s probably what you really want to read. The source of most of this can be found in various places on the 'Net. Much of it can be found in a great series at FanGraphs by Dave Cameron, who is himself distilling a number of ideas, many of them from Tom Tango. You can find links the series on Pitcher Win Values at Fangraphs -- you can find the links in a post I wrote at Royals Review.

Here's a distillation of how it goes (and do check out the links for more detailed explanations):

Replacement level for starters is a .380 win%, for relievers, it is .470. See Tom Tango's helpful blog post for more on this. FanGraphs doesn't adjust for the relative superiority of talent in the AL, to do so, one make the replacement levels .370 and .460 in the AL, .390 and .480 in the NL.

To get runs saved one takes the player's win percentage - replacement level times innings pitched. For Hudson in 2008, that would be .(533-.390)*142= 23.1 runs above replacement (RAR).

Further, one needs to adjust for the pitchers effect on his run environment by averaging his FIP-ERA with the lgRA in the equation above, and scale it to RA to make sure that it accurately reflects the league and pitcher run environment and also gives pitchers their proper value in relation to hitters. Given that we're dealing with projections here, I will simply add .4 to the FIP and lgERA, although that is imprecise. For the As projections, though, it will have to suffice.

(Note that for simplicity's sake, I've left out park adjustments for now. I will get to that in the future.)

For Hudson, the result is a 2.4 WAR for 2008 -- given that the average player is around 2, and given that he only pitched 142 innings.

The 2009 Oakland Rotation

For the projections, I once again averaged the FIP generated from CHONE, ZiPS, and PECOTA. Using a weighted average, I've set the lgERA at 4.45.

Playing time is a difficult issue (and this is all from before Duchscherer's arm problems...) It's always tough to project, but with the As young players both in the majors and the minors... So I went with Baseball Prospectus' projections, as it tries to account for spot starts. If As fans want to jump in with suggestions in the comments, feel free. After all that bluster above, the chart is relatively short and straightforward. Remember -- the projected FIP is not me, it's the average of the three most respected and publicly available systems.

Player	FIP	IP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Justin Duchscherer	3.98	140	.547	24.8	2.5
Dana Eveland	3.82	160	.569	31.8	3.2
Sean Gallagher	4.45	130	.500	16.9	1.6
Gio Gonzalez	5.20	130	.429	7.7	0.7
Joshua Outman	5.16	100	.432	6.2	0.6
Dallas Braden	4.53	90	.492	11.0	1.1
Brett Anderson	4.72	80	.473	7.2	0.8
Edgar G. Gonzalez	4.58	70	.487	8.2	0.8
Trevor Cahill	4.88	50	.458	4.4	0.4

The first thing that might grab your attention is that that's a lot of starters. But keep in mind trying to account for injury risks, from longer stays on the DL to simply skipping a turn when a guy rests. Also keep in mind that guys might get into a rut and get sent into the 'pen for a bit, or young guys getting sent down or called up.

But just look at the winnings percentages for a minute, since they give us an idea of each pitchers relationship to league average (.500) and replacement level (.370 in the AL). The only starters on that list clearly above average are Duchsherer and Eveland. No, neither of them look to be dominating aces, but both are projected as clearly above average. Good #2 pitcher, one might say. Leave aside what you think about the As trade of Harden -- Gallagher projects as perfectly average.

As for the rest, well, only Braden and perhaps Edgar Gonzalez project close to average, but they are high-end #4s. What really is striking, though, is that none of these guys, except maybe Gio Gonzalez and the wonderfully-named-for-a-pitcher Outman, statisticaly profile as #5s, and even those guys are a ways from replacement level.

In other words, while none of the players are projected to dominate, none are projected to be horrible. And if there is an injury, there is plenty of non-replacement-level depth available to step into the breach. Is that enough to win the AL West? I suppose I have to disappoint here and say that I really don't know. It depends on the Angels, of course, who have a very good rotation, but didn't really replace Mark Teixeira, either, and keep getting older. And, of course, much depends on if the As hitting can improve. yes, that's a waffle, but I'll say this: it's not Hudson, Mulder, and Zito in 2001, but it's not the 2003 Royals, either. It's reasonable to think the As can contend with these guys.

A final thought: It's sometimes said that pitching is the currency of baseball. That may be true due to some perceptions about how trade value works. But the truth is, it is more accurate to say that runs are the currency of baseball. Even more accurately, wins are the currency of baseball, since they are what gets one into the playoffs, and when one signs free agents or makes trades, one is trying to purchase (through money or talent) marginal wins. But that gets to the crux of the issue. Here's the same players, their projected WAR, and some... other important data based on 2009 projections.

Player	WAR	Value	Salary	Surplus
Justin Duchscherer	2.5	$11.93	3.9	$8.03
Dana Eveland	3.2	$15.40	$0.44	$14.96
Sean Gallagher	1.6	$8.0	$0.44	$7.56
Gio Gonzalez	0.7	$3.67	$0.44	$3.23
Joshua Outman	0.6	$3.07	$0.44	$2.63
Dallas Braden	1.1	$5.32	$0.44	$4.88
Brett Anderson	0.8	$4.04	$0.39	$3.65
Edgar G. Gonzalez	0.8	$4.04	0.39	$3.65
Trevor Cahill	0.4	$2.31	$0.39	$1.92
Total	11.7	$57.77	$7.25	$50.50

[NB: All dollar values are millions. I've taken the dollar value of each WAR in 2009 to be $4.62 million on the basis of Colin Wyers' finding that the cost was $4.2 million in 2008 and assuming the general 10% annual inflation of that salary + $0.4 M replacement player salary. It seems too early to say for sure how to adjust for the new economic climate, and it's better to adjust too little than too much...]

Every team (yes, even the Yankees) run on a budget. And the As, even though they want to win, have a budget, and a pretty small one at that. Yes, they want to win. But it's not pitching that's the currency of baseball. It isn't even runs. Yes, wins are wins, but ultimately, you have to pay for wins. And the As, now matter how they are do, are hedging their bets. If this rotaiton doesn't work out, it's not like they're stuck with a bunch of contracts they can't move, or have mortgaged the future.

The real currency of baseball is well, currency (ok, money, but let me have my moment). The As are "on the hook" for a bit over $7 million for those player next year, players who are projected to return over $50 milllion in value. And that, not walks, or defense, or Jeremy Brown's Blue Plate Special, is what the concept of "Moneyball" is really about.

Diamondbacks 9, A's 7: Beer, sunburn and good times

Jim McLennan — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 04:24:15 -0000

"Is there a heaven?"

"Oh, yeah. It's the place where dreams come true."

"Maybe this is heaven."
Field of Dreams

If the above picture is not an affirmation of all that is good and true about the sport, its players and those who follow the game... It's close. I've little doubt the children don't have the slightest clue who Cesar Valdez is; but he plays baseball and that's enough to make him a star in their eyes. The look on their faces as they ran back to their father with the autographed ball was a reminder of why I love the game so much. In an era where the latest steroid revelations seem to rock baseball on an almost daily basis, it's good to get back to the basics. The grass is green, the breeze is warm and the drinks cold: let's play ball!

We abandoned the original plan to drive down the night before, so headed off early Sunday morning. We managed to negotiate the roadworks in the middle of town, which must be due for completion any millennium soon, I'm sure, and rolled into Tucson Electric Park around eleven. A few minutes later, our tailgating partners - shoe, TAP and Tmar - showed up, and with the arrival of The Shadow, bearing Diamond Dogs for all, from the nearest Circle K, we were all set. The discussion was free, wide-ranging and interrupted only by consumption of Mrs. SnakePit's tortilla wraps. :-)

Of particular note, I was talking to shoe about spring training stats: he thinks it might be interesting to break the actual results by inning: say, see who was leading the game after five innings in the first two weeks, maybe the sixth inning in week three, and so on, because after that point, it's usually the B-roster who are out there. There might then be a better correlation between that and regular season records. He also reckons Chris Burke was 'cheating' in spring training, sitting on the fastball, which is all pitchers tend to throw early on. As soon as they started to mix in the breaking stuff, his effectiveness vanished. Something to keep an eye on, though I haven't seen him in a Padres lineup yet.

[Jackson and Reynolds warm up]

Around 12:30, we made our way inside: our seats were down the first-base line, and I bumped into Driaz as I swung back, after taking the above pics of the team warming up. Not actually as big a crowd as I thought there might be, for a Sunday game; it's probably another reason why the Diamondbacks are looking to leave Tucson. Here are the attendance numbers for all the Cactus League games this afternoon:

White Sox at Dodgers (Glendale): 11,280
Brewers at Giants (Scottsdale): 7.614
Cubs at Padres (Peoria): 7,072
Rockies at Indians (Goodyear): 5,000
A's at Diamondbacks (Tucson Electric Park): 4,922
Mariners at Texas (Surprise): 4,772
Royals at Angels (Tempe Diablo): 4,097

On a glorious spring day, the home-state Diamondbacks managed to outdraw only two American League match-ups, including one contest which was basically taking place in the middle of nowhere - no offense, Surprise. You'd think with the team threatening to leave, people would be showing up in droves to prove the viability of Tucson as a spring training location. But when you can't even get five thousand to the park, you have to wonder whether the town has simply given up the fight

Starting the game for the Diamondbacks this afternoon was Yusmeiro Petit, and he was in midseason form already, performing feats of escapology previously only performed by Houdini. And Orlando Hernandez. Take the first inning, where he walked the leadoff batter, allowed a single to left to the next man, and then uncorked a wild pitch, to put men on second and third with no outs. I expected a call from shoe, saying something along the lines of "Told you so." But Petit - as he did much of last year - defied expectation. A shallow pop-up to our heavily-tattooed second-baseman, Ryan Roberts, a strikeout and a groundout kept the A's off the board.

Second verse...same as the first. Leadoff walk and another single put men on the corners with nobody out, but again, the A's couldn't even squeeze one run over - a strike 'em out, throw 'em out double-play proved key in the second. Petit left with two scoreless innings, despite two hits and two walks, and got the W. I can't say he looked particularly convincing, but there's no arguing with the box-score this afternoon, and Bob Melvin took it: "Early on, he really had trouble getting the ball down, and typically that's when he has his share of troubles. End result is what you're looking for, and he didn't give anything up." Whether Petit is capable of producing the same in the regular season, I'm not so certain. Here's the wild-pitch and the ground-out which started the comeback.

Interestingly, pitching for the A's was a former master of the long-ball for the Diamondbacks, Edgar Gonzalez. It was clear from the first batter he faced that he would not be so lucky, Roberts flipping a dying quail into the Bermuda Triangle beyond the infield. One out later, Stephen Drew ripped a double over the head of the left-fielder to give Arizona the lead, and with two outs, Chad Tracy singled to bring Drew home and make the score 2-0 for the Diamondbacks. Our boys certainly had their share of luck today, with at least three hits, like Roberts', dropping with perfect precision among converging A's fielders, and they got help from two Oakland errors.

While technically there were no errors ascribed to Arizona today, we seemed to have extraordinary trouble turning the double-play. Before we finally got one to end the game, there were at least three which should have been converted: as they all resulted in one out, no errors were allocated, but the last was particularly painful. A fine pivot and a solid throw to first in plenty of time, was followed by the ball clanking off Josh Whitesell's glove with a resounding 'BONK!' Someone - who might have been me - yelled, "If we need that kind of thing, we've got Tony Clark." Speaking of whom, he looked totally adrift at the plate today, going 0-for-3 with a strikeout. Glove notwithstanding, I expect him to be replaced by Josh Whitesell before the All-Star break.

[Tracy takes off for second-base]

Arizona tacked on three more runs in the fourth, thanks in part to those Oakland errors, and were looking set to cruise to an easy victory. Cesar Valdez, seemed a little shaky immediately after relieving Billy Buckner, giving up a solo home-run to lead off the A's fifth. However, he settled down, fanning three in his two innings of work, and the Diamondbacks - now running their B-roster out there - added on in the bottom of the sixth, making the score at that point 9-2 to Arizona. We looked forward to a quick exit from TEP. Some more slices of tortilla wrap? Don't mind if I do. However, Brooks Brown had other ideas...

In his defense, he was the victim of some bad luck. A bad-hop took the ball over the third-baseman's glove and put the leadoff hitter on base for Oakland. Browns should have taken the hint and feigned some kind of injury because that was the shape of things to come for him. He ended up with a line of five hits, one walk, five runs, all earned, in one-third of an inning of work. Ouch. That'll sting. Perhaps the most painful was the bases-loaded squibber that trickled about ten feet in front of the plate, leaving catcher John Hester floundering and unable to get anyone out.

[Jose Valv...er, Marte goes into action]

Brooks was eventually rescued by Jose Marte, of whom Nick Piecoro said last week, "An excellent, if unintentional, impression of former Diamondbacks closer Jose Valverde. From his pulled-up socks to his mannerisms on the mound to his skyward point after recording the final out of Thursday's win in Goodyear, all was Valverde-esque... The only thing Marte lacks is Valverde's waistline." Having now seen Marte in action, I concur: there is a strong resemblance, and his performance this afternoon was very solid. Coming in with the bases loaded and one out in the seventh, he allowed only a run-scoring groundout, and then added a scoreless eighth for good measure.

Leo Rosales pitched the ninth and we finally turned a double-play, which ended things and sent the Diamondbacks fans home happy. On the offensive side, Brandon Watson, getting the start in center, had three hits, including a delightful little bunt which took the Oakland pitcher by surprise. Roberts had two hits, while Tracy and Reynolds each had a hit and a walk. Eight separate Arizona players had runs batted in, which is probably an accurate assessment of how our offense is going to be looking to get things done this season.

[Miguel Montero warms up]

We headed back to the parking-lot, and The Shadow invited us to a BBQ at his house in Tucson. We had to decline, because I wanted to get this report up and posted as soon as possible, and we still had a two-hour drive back to North Phoenix. You see the sacrifices I make for you people? :-) But it was a very pleasant day; having seen actual, live baseball we now truly feel that the winter is over, and the real season can't start soon enough. Might be a while until I can see a tortilla wrap, however...

In other news, Brandon Webb's bullpen session went fine, a huge relief to all. "I felt real good today. I felt great. Almost 100 percent, I’d say. I had no problems warming up. I threw every pitch, fastball, change-up, curveball... I wasn’t too concerned about it from the start. But today was encouraging. I felt real good about it. I’m ready to go." He'll therefore be making his next start on Wednesday, as scheduled, against Team Mexico, though he probably won't throw more than about 30 pitches or a couple of innings, whichever comes first. Before then, however: guess who'll be starting for the Giants when we face them in Scottsdale on Tuesday? Yep. Randy Johnson. Might be worth taking the afternoon off for that one...

[Snakes on the grass... Click to enlarge
All photos by AZ SnakePit]

Suckfest Trifecta: A's Pitching, Offense, Defense Falter In 9-7 Loss To D-Backs

Nico — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 23:12:29 -0000

You can only blame the wind for so much.

Offensively, the A's would have been in much better shape had there been only three bases, but that pesky five-pointed one proved to be quite elusive from the git-go. With runners and second and third and nobody out in the 1st inning, the A's failed when Giambi popped up, Cust struck out, and Suzuki bounced out. Then with runners at the corners and nobody out in the 2nd inning, somehow the imposing duo of Hannahan and Patterson couldn't make even a productive out before Buck ended another inning of frustration. Next thing you know, it was 9-2 before the A's scrubs rallied against the Diamondbacks' scrubs for 5 runs in the 7th to make it interesting.

Defensively, the A's had three problems. One was the wind, which turned playable fly balls into two gift RBI hits off Edgar Gonzalez in the 1st inning. Another was Jack Hannahan, who made a pair of costly errors in the middle innings as the Diamondbacks broke open a close game. Another was Javier Herrera, who took over CF in the 6th, just in time to misjudge one fly ball into a triple and then "mine, mine, mine...yours!" one into a double.

The pitching? One positive: Despite a line that looks so-so (3IP, 4 hits, 2 ER), Edgar Gonzalez actually pitched very well, striking out 4, walking none, and generally pitching out of trouble that he hadn't even pitched into. From there, however, the pitchers seemed inspired by the performances of their position player pals.

In the 4th, Josh Outman walked the first two batters he faced and wound up charged with 4 runs on 4 hits in his 2 innings of sub-par work. I do not believe that jobs are won or lost on March 1st, but Outman becomes the first applicant for the #5 spot to turn in a stinker of a stint. In the 6th, Mike Wuertz turned in 0.2 IP that began as a Herrera-induced fit of suckitude but ended with Wuertz unable to finish the inning due to his own shortcomings.

One thing I have loved about recent A's teams is the "never give up" mentality even the most mediocre A's groups have had. Today was no exception, as at least Oakland got up off the deck from a woeful first six innings of futility and actually brought the go-ahead run to the plate as early as the 7th inning.

A final, random note. I want to give kudos to Vince Cotroneo, who in my opinion sounds so much better this Spring than before. I thought Vince sounded a little better last season, but only now would I say he sounds significantly improved from before. The difference, I think, is that his pacing is a lot more professional and he isn't "trying to do too much," the problem I felt plagued him as much as anything his first three seasons with the A's. I don't know if Vince has been coached, or whether he has just finally relaxed, but the difference is noticeable to me and as a play-by-play afficianado I am keenly aware of, and concerned with, the quality of a radio broadcast. Good work, partner - may the young pitchers come along so well!

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 14:28:12 -0000

Some things to read while watching your figure.

It appears Braden Looper has agreed to terms. Adam McCalvy picked a pretty good first day to launch his MLB.com blog, as he almost immediately got to cover breaking news. News that Looper agreed to terms capped a long day of Looper coverage here as well, with a FanShot when the initial story broke, my in-depth analysis of his horoscope, jihad's look at Looper's pitching, and finally another FanShot when the deal was done.

Unfortunately, Looper signed too late to make the cut for a 2009 bobblehead. In the FanShots, John Brew has the list of bobbleheads this season. Waiting until August 30 to issue the Jeff Suppan bobblehead is a little risky...if he's posting a 5+ ERA at that point, it may not exactly be a source of excitement.

Speaking of Suppan, Baseball by Paul rated 154 starting pitchers for 2009, and Suppan comes in at 130. Carlos Villanueva, Dave Bush, Manny Parra and Yovani Gallardo check in at 101, 64, 41 and 25, respectively. Braden Looper somehow missed the list.

Meanwhile, Baseball Analysts has another cool graph, this time categorizing relief pitchers by ground ball and strikeout rates. Trevor Hoffman and Carlos Villanueva are on the right side of this one, with former Brewers Brian Shouse and Salomon Torres on the wrong side.

As the early predictions come out, it's becoming somewhat trendy to rate the Brewers low in the NL Central. The Recliner GM has the Brewers fifth in the division, although this was before the Looper signing.

The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers play their first home game as a Brewer affiliate on Thursday, April 9. The 2009 Timber Rattlers will likely feature Jake Odorizzi, Cody Scarpetta, Brett Lawrie and Cutter Dykstra, but if you needed another reason to go see them, they're giving away a double bobblehead featuring Bernie Brewer (complete with bizarre eyes) and Fang. So, if you're looking for something new that will creep you out while you're trying to sleep, here's your opportunity.

As I looked over the Baseball America minor league transactions this morning looking for former Brewers, I stumbled across a note on the Brewers signing a RHP named Heri Olivo. Baseball Reference doesn't have him listed, so it's officially a mystery.

Have you ever been to Helfaer Field, the youth baseball facility by Miller Park? Would you like to work there? The Brewers are hiring event staff for the facility.

On the hot stove:

A's: Signed reliever Edgar Gonzalez to a minor league deal.
Cardinals: Released Adam Kennedy, who had requested to be traded in 2008.
D-Backs: Could re-sign Juan Cruz.
Dodgers: Signed Jeff Weaver to a minor league deal.
Padres: Invited 20 players, including former Brewer prospect Will Inman, to spring training.
Reds: The team is cutting some front office jobs and is likely done spending in the wake of slow ticket sales for 2009.

Things could always be worse for Ben Sheets. Sure, he needs surgery and may not pitch at all in 2009, but Romanian handball star Marian Cozma, who looks a lot like Sheets, was stabbed to death in Hungary over the weekend.

The tie between Ben Sheets and a site tracking MLB injury histories is so obvious I don't even need to write a segue for it.

If you're a fan of the Three True Outcomes, you may want to turn away for a moment: Driveline Mechanics has a look at five players who put the ball in play more than any others. It's worth a read just for the flow chart on Dusty Baker's hitting philosophy. Also, "Russell Branyan and the Three True Outcomes" may be my next Rock Band creation.

Following the Brewers while living outside of Wisconsin can be a challenge, but it might get even tougher this season as Sirius-XM is considering dropping coverage of MLB games. That'd be the end of my subscription. (h/t Baseball Musings)

Oh, and Ichiro hit 92 on the gun while preparing to pitch in the WBC.

Drink up.

Winter Wonderland

Jim McLennan — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 19:52:03 -0000

The pro baseball season may have finished, even here in Arizona, but it's been going strong in South and Central America, with a large number of Diamondbacks prospects (and some current players), both pitchers and hitters, seeing action. Leagues have been going on in Venezuela, the Dominican Republic and Hawaii, so with most of the seasons now over or winding-down, let's take a look and see what the results have been like so far.

We'll start in Hawaii where, as noted elsewhere, Hawaiian Winter Ball looks unlikely to continue, having not extended its contract with MLB, meaning this could therefore be its final year. Three Diamondbacks were members of the West Oahu CaneFires this season, with Mark Hallberg perhaps the most impressive. The infielder, who turned 23 last month, had been nothing special at High-A Visalia, batting .283, but enjoyed his time in the 49th state, batting .362 with a .906 OPS. The best raw numbers went to Cyle Hankerd, however, with a line of .318/.392/.545, leading the team in HR and RBI (5 and 33 respectively, in 25 games). That's the same number of homers as he had in 125 games for Double-A Mobile. Finally, our new catcher, James 'Jack' Skelton also took part, and continued his habitual on-base tear, with an impressive .405 OBP.

The Mexican Winter League had two Arizona starting pitchers - though one, Edgar Gonzalez, may or may not make it back to the team in 2009, having been released by the club. He went 4-1 for Hermosillo in seven starts, posting a 4.46 ERA. New Australian left-hander Travis Blackley made ten starts for Mexicali, including a complete game, and went 2-3 with a decent 3.88 ERA in those games [a couple of bad bullpen outings inflated his overall figure to 4.24]. Of particular note was a good K:BB ratio of 3:1 as a starter. No Arizona hitter has appeared in more than six games so far, and the regular season is now in its last week, so we'll move rapidly on.

The Dominican League saw our players appear for Estrellas de Oriente, and was similarly pitcher-heavy. Evan MacLane pulled double duty, appearing both here and Venezuela: between the two, he had twelve starts and a 4.00 ERA. He struggled a bit more in the DWL, being winless in nine outings there, though showed excelled control, allowing eight walks in 41 innings and just nine in 63 overall, compared to 52 strikeouts. Jailen Peguero made 18 apperances out of the 'pen and had a 3.00 ERA, with three saves in five changes. However, he did walk too many people - fourteen in only eighteen innings, along with three wild pitches. On the plus side, opposing hitters batted only .190 off Peguero, but Estrellas still missed the playoffs, winning only 16 of 50 games, so their season is over.

The same issues plagued young southpaw Jordan Norberto, with 14 walks in 17.2 innings of work, but a .212 average against. He only just had his 22nd birthday on December 8th, so is still young enough. He spent both 2007 and 2008 at Class-A South Bend, and having had an ERA above five both times, needs to step things up this year. The other Diamondback to pitch a significant (ten-plus) number of innings in the DWL was Esmerling Vasquez, who made six appearances all told, totaling 13.1 IP, with a 3.38 ERA. He began as a starter, but was shifted to a relief role after walking five batters in his first six innings. That seemed to help, as his K:BB ratio was 6:2 in the remaining 7.1 frames, with only one earned run allowed. He was our minor-league Pitcher of the Year in 2007, but struggled in Tucson last season, where his ERA was 6.82 in 83 innings.

Finally, we move to the Venezuelan Winter League, with a number of fine performances by AZ players. Leading hitter is probably Jesus Merchan, shortstop for the Sidewinders last season. His success is not unexpected, since he batted .339 for Tucson, but his on-base skills were notable. Merchan has given his team a .423 OBP, and decent wheels [4 triples in 79 at-bats], help his OPS reach .980. My first thought was, move to 2B this year in Reno, with the aim to replace Lopez in 2010. However, he'd then be 29, and his defense seems poor [21 errors in 107 games at SS last year]. Miguel Montero had an interesting winter. He started off very poorly, going just .185 (5-for-27) at the beginning of the year, with Bravos de Margarita. However, after a trade took him to Caribes, Miggy has been en fuego, giving his new team a line of .302/.358/.530, with eight homers in just 149 at-bats. Could probably do with some more walks, and he's K'd more than three times as often, worse than in the majors last season.

Gerardo Parra (above) also impressed observers; he is only 21 but batted .329 for Aguilas de Zulia, leading the team with 124 total bases and 15 SB, on his way to a .908 OPS. He had almost as many walks as strikeouts (31:36), giving him an OBP above .400, and is seen by some as the most likely internal prospect to replace Byrnes [if EB stays his contract]. Our well-known 2008 outfielder, Alex Romero, went one better, getting more walks than strikeouts (19:18), to tack onto a .311 average. However, his familiar lack of power - five extra-base hits in 44 games - means his SLG is lower than his OBP, and the overall OPS of .754 is disappointing.

Moving on to the pitchers, we've already covered Evan MacLane, but the one who stands out was Juan Gutierrez. As noted previously, he had a one-hitter among his 13 starts, for a 5-2 record and 2.63 ERA; even that's after a bad outing last time, before which it was 2.30. His K-rate is good - 56 in 65 innings, compared to 20 walks - and he is keeping the ball in the park. Gutierrez has allowed only a pair of home-runs, one in that most recent start, to franchise-mate Javier Brito. That can't be said for Yusmeiro Petit, who continues to be plagued by the long-ball, to the tune of seven in just 39 innings. Hitters overall are enjoying the Petit Unit, to the tune of .316, and he is still winless after eight starts. His last three outings have resulted in a total of 23 hits and 11 earned runs over 13.1 innings of work. Maybe picking up another starter is a wise idea...