SB Nation - Alberto Callaspo

How Dayton Moore Can Have a Comeback Year

royalsreview — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:23:50 -0000

The Bravest Way to put on a jersey. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

After an intriguing beginning to his tenure as the General Manager of the Royals, Dayton Moore floundered in 2008 and 2009. Good moves started to give way to bizarre ones, and by the end of 2009, at least at the Major League level, Moore looked like one of the more clueless transaction hounds in the business. Dealing with criticism for the first time in his professional life, Moore, and the rest of his leadership team adopted a bunker mentality that only made them look worse. His in-season 2009 moves look almost vindictive: I will keep finding out-machines who suck defensively and there's nothing you can do about it!

Still, I don't know if Dayton Moore is destined to succeed or fail as the GM of the Royals. He played a large part in making the 2008-9 Royals bad and he's setup the 2010 Royals to be a bad team as well. Moreover, his refusal to actually rebuild on a large scale has pushed back the timeline for true contention in Kansas City. All of that being said, he did inherit a franchise in shambles and since he has the support of ownership, he still has time to have long-term success. It just won't happen soon.

But if the Royals are ever going to win under Moore, and we're talking 2011-13 here, the comeback needs to start now. Organizationally, the Royals can't have another lost year. Here's how Moore can start to turn it around:

Have a Relatively Non-Horrible Winter on the Free Agent Market: This one has already been partially shot by the horrific Jason Kendall signing, a move which made the Royals older, worse, more expensive. Yes, the Kendall signing was a moderate financial outlay, and yes, this is what nearly all baseball teams do. However, the Royals are not a large market or even middle market team. They are in the 28th-30th range. The pointless millions you spend on the Kendalls & Farnsworths of the world add up, and pretty soon you're making bad baseball decisions because you need to get under some arbitrary payroll number. Like, oh look, they did with the catching situation. The circle of horribleness is completed. So step one of this off-season needs to be no more pointless pickups with wasted millions and years tied up.
Be Honest About Where the Team Is: Dayton needs to go outside of the organization and have a few honest conversations with "baseball men" that he trusts. People that can be honest with him. He needs to talk to people about if the Royals can compete in 2011. If the Royals can compete in 2012. Where the rest of the division is going. Etc. There's no shortage of agreement within the organization about two things: it was terrible when they took over and everyone is currently doing a great job. They need to move beyond that now. They need to figure out where they are. They need a new finish line, other than "it sucks here, we've got work to do".
Actually Commit to the Rebuild: My hunch is, the advice will, or would, lead to one conclusion: the Royals have work to do. I love Zack Greinke, but the Royals can't base their decisions around keeping him happy or not wasting him in his prime. He's going to be around for awhile, so we can punt on 2010. I think, for the most part, the Royals have done this, although we can't be completely sure for the next few weeks. The Royals don't have to do a complete teardown, as they actually have some pieces in place, but they need to be aggressive in exploring trade possibilities involving Gil Meche, Joakim Soria, David DeJesus, Alberto Callaspo, etc. They can also go the other way, and trade one of their prospects for a soon-to-be-ready young Major Leaguer with numerous controlled-years remaining. The mindset needs to change. They need to view what they currently have as a way of getting somewhere better, not as part of some masterplan already coming together. If Billy Butler has a monster first half, shop him (he's already burned through a ton of service time and handles the easiest to fill position).
Lean on Your Skills: Dayton earned a sterling reputation as a scouting and player development guy. We know what he is. He's not a guy that's going to embrace new ideas, different voices. He's not going to diversify his portfolio. Which sucks, but it is what it is. In that case, he needs to go all in with what he does well: scouting and evaluating young players. Embrace that part of his identity and stop looking for the next Gil Meche signing. Moreover, this is also the identity of his top assistants. So go for it. Prove to us you're the best evaluators of young studs and overlooked aces around. To be honest, Dayton Moore has been an absolute disaster involving transactions at the Major League level. In a manner of speaking, he needs to gas up the rental car and hit the sandlot circuit again. He needs to spend less time enacting bizarre fantasies involving the Ross Gloads and Willie Bloomquists of the world. We get it: those guys are great and help you win and all the rest. Except they don't and we keep losing. If Dayton is the guy we think we hired, he remains a great option to aggressively rebuild the team by scouting amateur and minor league talent. We need that guy back.
Strengthen Your Standing in the Community: I use "community" broadly here: the baseball community, the Kansas City community, your relationships inside the organization. If this Dayton Moore thing is going to work at all, then ownership has to remain committed to being the Yankees of the amateur spending market. And much of that goes back to reputation and belief. To this point, against a lot of evidence to the contrary, they've believed in Dayton Moore. Will that last forever? To be blunt, 2009 sucked: the Royals sucked and the leadership team repeatedly came across as petty, vindictive, & paranoid. The local and national baseball media began to be much more critical of the Royals and a lot of the benefit of the doubt and goodwill Moore earned withered away. The Royals are in the entertainment business, and if the team continues to behave in the way it has over the last year, things are going to get a lot worse. At a certain point, the perception amongst the fans and the media gets so negative that the environment becomes too toxic to continue. I'm not saying Dayton Moore needs to hire Nate Silver. I'm not saying that Rany should throw out the first pitch on Opening Day. Let's start small and admit just one mistake. One. Let's work on restoring normal relations with the local media. Stop lecturing everyone. Stop saying dumb things. Basically, disappear for months at a time, and when you emerge, be engaging and humble rather than holier than thou. Dayton Moore needs Joe Posnanski back on his side. Ownership does not want to be a national joke, which is why they hired Moore. It's somewhat amazing that Moore himself seems to have lost sight of this. At present, a huge percentage of whatever success the Royals have had drafting lies at the credit of ownership, who has spent money. If they lose faith in Moore's ability to execute and roll back the budget, the goose is cooked.

There's another bullet point that we could add that would be something like Have Another Good Draft, but really, I think that's self-evident. Likewise, the Royal system needs something of a comeback year. That one isn't so much self-evident, as perhaps not entirely in Dayton's hands at this point. The little decisions that add up to developing players... well, the Royals need to hit a home run in 2010.

As you can see, many of these steps are inter-related. The ironic thing is, if the Royals were to fire Dayton Moore, someone like Dayton Moore would be precisely the kind of person they would be looking at to replace him.

The comeback needs to start now.

Royals target defensive-minded catcher?

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 20:57:55 -0000

The Royals are looking for alternatives behind the plate for the 2010 season, according to the KC Star.

"We led all of baseball (last season) in passed balls and wild pitches," general manager Dayton Moore said. "That will be fixed in 2010. Our defense in general is our main objective to fix before next season. And it starts behind the plate."

The Royals bought out Miguel Olivo, and hope to find a legitimate replacement before being forced to discuss a contract with arbitration-eligible John Buck.

The KC Star mentions one trade in the works that would send Royals second baseman Alberto Callaspo to the Dodgers for catcher A.J. Ellis. Callaspo, who would take over at second base for the Dodgers, hit .300 with 11 home runs in his first full season of regular playing time.

Ellis, 28, is a .277 career hitter in the minor leagues with a .397 on-base percentage. He has a great eye for the strike zone, and is an excellent fielder behind the dish.

Even with all that said, I don't see why the Royals would ship Callaspo out for a career minor league catcher.

Twins Hammer and Homer Royals for the Sweep: Bring On the Tigers!

Jesse — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 22:23:49 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Minnesota Twins' Jason Kubel doffs his helmet to the crowd after his second three-run home run of the game off Kansas City Royals' Luke Hochevar in the third inning of a baseball game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009 in Minneapolis, while Denard Span makes fun of his beard. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Twins 13, Royals 4

Do you hear that? Can you still hear it? It's the reverb from the cacophony of noise created by fans at the Dome. Why, you may ask?

Because we just forced game 163.

"BOOM!" said Jason Kubel.

"BOOM!" said Delmon Young.

"BOOM!" said Kubel, again.

"Ditto," said Delmon.

As the Detroit Tigers hung on to salvage one game from the Chicago White Sox this afternoon, the Twins were busy putting the hurt on the Kansas City Royals. It was 7-0 at the end of the third inning, with six of those runs crossing the plate stuck in Kubel's beard; a pair of three-run jacks lifted Jason to one of the best days of his career in a crucial game.

Young went deep twice of his own accord, solo shots that, "just enough" or not, certainly did the trick. His second blast put the Twins up 8-1 going into the sixth, and the game looked like it was on ice. But oh yeah, we were facing the Royals, and they have just as much fight as the Twins. Sadly for them they don't have the talent to match, but for one half of an inning, things were interesting.

Carl Pavano started on three days rest this afternoon, and he looked good. Working out of a second and third with one out situation in the second inning, he made a statement about exactly what kind of a pitcher he can be when he bears down. He worked John Buck out-in-out-in-in to induce a shallow fly-out to center that couldn't score a run, and then quickly sent down Alex Gordon as well. It was a microcosm of the game for the Royals: try as they might, it wasn't going to be good enough.

Pavano pitched around a Luis Hernandez leadoff double in the third before allowing a run in the fourth off back-to-back doubles by Alberto Callaspo and Mark Teahen. He looked strong again the fifth before falling off the table in the aforementioned sixth.

Mike Jacobs picked up a leadoff single before Callaspo tripled to bring the score to 8-2. Still Pavano battled back, striking out Teahen and inducing a Buck ground-out for out number two. Another run scored, but with the bases empty and the bullpen spare he attacked Alex Gordon.

"BOOM!", said Gordon. 8-4, hook for Pavano, enter Bobby Keppel.

Quick, ask me which pitcher I don't want to see in a game.

Keppel lasted six pitches, delivering five fastballs down the middle of the plate and a slider in the dirt. The Royals continued to jab with the left, trying to inch closer before coming in with a strong right. With runners on the corners and still just the two outs that Pavano managed, Ron Gardenhire went to Ron Mahay in order to get lefty Mitch Maier.

Mahay hit Maier.

Bases loaded, down by four and with Billy Butler at the dish, this game suddenly didn't look like such a sure shot. Gardenhire power walked to the mound for the third time that inning, stuck two fingers up Mahay's nose, pulled down, said "Get outta here you knucklehead" and then poked Mahay in the eyes. Out came Jon Rauch.

Big, surly Jon Rauch. The Jon Rauch whose tattoo changes color depending on his mood. I think it's like a mood tattoo, and today it was green. Whatever green means, it didn't bode well for the Royals. Rauch dusted in and out with a couple of breaking balls, and then attacked the outer half with two consecutive fastballs, the second of which Butler just stood and watched without flinching. Strike three, good sir.

From there things got considerably easier. In the bottom half of the sixth Denard Span walked, and then scored on an Orlando Cabrera double down the left field line. After Kubel singled in the seventh, Carlos Gomez replaced him on the bases and later scored on a Matt Tolbert (TOL-BEAR!!) double into right. In the bottom half of the eighth Span singled, and then scored on a Cabrera double down the left field line. Yes, again. Oh, and one more thing.

"BOOM!" said Cuddyer. With authori-tah.

Astoundingly the Royals actually out-hit the Twins 12-11, with the difference being that A) the Twins walked seven times and B) the Twins out-homered the Royals 5-1. That kind of thing usually makes it very easy to win.

Brian Duensing, Jesse Crain and Francisco Liriano dusted off the final three innings without allowing a run, and at the end of the afternoon the Twins had done the unbelieveable: they'd swept the Royals, and earned themselves a shot at the division title.

While the White Sox couldn't complete the miracle, it hardly seems to matter. Minnesota was written off for dead, not just by most of the baseball world but by many of their own fans. And you know what? I don't blame anyone. I don't harbor any hard feelings toward anyone for looking at the mathematical probabilities on Friday morning and saying "nope". But it was't over then, and it's not over now.

Tuesday afternoon at four the Tigers come to town to defend a crown that should be theirs. There will be no pressure on the Twins in this game--they're "not supposed" to even be there. For the second year in a row the Twins have to play game 163 to decide whether or not they are the AL Central champions, to decide whether or not they earn the right to play post-season baseball. This time the game is being played where it should be played: in the comforts of Dome.

The season plays on for at least one more glorious afternoon of baseball. And we get once last shot under the teflon sky. Are you excited? Because you sure as hell should be.

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (2-for-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, .071 WPA)
#2: Carl Pavano (5.2 IP on three days rest, 8 H, 7 K, 1 BB, 4 R, .096 WPA)
#1: Jason Kubel (3-for-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 R, .257 WPA)

I've Got A Span-Crush: Twins Win Big As Denard Span Drives In Six

Jesse — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 02:46:38 -0000

More photos » by ED ZURGA - AP

Minnesota Twins' Denard Span pwnes the Kansas City Royals Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. Delmon Young, Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto scored on the triple. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

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Twins 11, Royals 6: Way to choke, Chicago.

Every time Denard Span comes to bat in the near future, all Kansas City Royals fans should avert their eyes for the greatness that his His Royal Span-ness. Tonight, his Royal Span-ness tripled to give the Twins their first and only lead of the game, scoring three to run the score to 5-2. It was all gravy from there.

Early on, Scott Baker gave up a couple of pop-fly homers to Alberto Callaspo and Brayan Pena; a pair of solo shots that both hitters looked to just get a piece of. Magically, they both left the field in almost exactly the same place in right field. The only conclusion I can draw is that the Royals had their fans blowing out. Fans, as in air circulation fans, because I think a lot of the fans fans at the game were Twins fans. Of which there weren't nearly enough blowing IN.

After that Baker settled in and cruised, hitless, until the seventh. Four-plus innings of hitless ball, but three batters into the seventh Baker had allowed one run, and had a man on third with one out. Ron Mahay came on to stem the....well, I use the term "tide" loosely, as this game wasn't exactly over although that man from third did score to get the Royals within three at 7-4.

Back to everyone's new Span-crush, Denard is showing absolutely no ill signs of being hit in the back of the head. Which is nice. Three singles and a triple on the night have him a 4-for-5 evening, and the six runs batted in have accounted for 9% of his season totals in that category. Other studs in tonight's 11-run explosion include...

Joe Mauer, whose two singles and a walk garnered him his 91st and 92nd RBI of the season and a .371 batting average. Ichiro Suzuki, it should be noted, was 0-for-3 before getting tossed after drawing a line in the dirt (get everything you need to know right here) and is now batting .353.
Nick Punto, who was 0-for-1 on the night but walked not once, not twice but thrice. Three walks tonight for Popeye's second cousin twice removed. He's not a sailor, both eyes are fully functional and he doesn't mumble incoherently, but he does has massive forearms. It's great to see Punto contribute again.
Brendan Harris picked up a pair of hits and an RBI, and Orlando Cabrera's solid single late in the game tacked on a run as well.

Baker's final line wasn't exactly glowing, but he did pitch better than his numbers. Something he's done on more than one occasion this season. On the Royals' side of the rubber, Lenny DiNardo had the exact kind of night he should have had against an offense like the Twins: a bad one. Yasuhiko Yabuta is also welcome to pitch against the Twins anytime he likes, surrendering four runs off four hits and a walk while tallying a single out. Good times.

The only downside to tonight's game is that the White Sox managed to ~~lose~~ ~~choke~~ vomit all over themselves and lose to the Tigers. After leading 5-0 through four, Chicago allowed at least one run per inning the rest of the game en route to a 12-5 ass kicking where they allowed a score of hits. That's right, I said it, a score.

Tonight's game was a grand one, no doubt about it. Sadly we head into the final game in Kauffman Stadium for 2009 tomorrow against one Zack Greinke still trailing the Tigers by two games. If there's ever a time to play your best baseball of the season, it's right now. Good for Detroit for doing the same.

Hopefully it will make next week all the sweeter. We'll find out. But...GREINKE FIRST. I'll see you in the morning.

Stars of the Game
#3: Joe Mauer (2-for-4, 2B, 2 RBI, .061 WPA)
#2: Nick Punto (0-for-1, 3 BB, 2 R, .081 WPA)
#1: Denard Span (4-for-5, 3B, 6 RBI, R, .346 WPA)

Curious Phenomena or Big Problem? Royals 9, Tigers 2

Ian Casselberry — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 22:15:44 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Now that he's given up 10 runs in his last two starts, are you worried how Edwin Jackson will pitch over the next two weeks?

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It's the most baffling thing. Mind-boggling, really.

And we're not just talking about Josh Anderson hitting a three-run homer. His first home run of the season. For the Royals. Not the Tigers.

What do the Kansas City Royals have over the Detroit Tigers? How is it that they've been able to win five of the last six meetings between the two teams?

The pitching has been terrible. The lineup hasn't scored many runs. The Royals outscored the Tigers 21-7 in winning two of the three games in this series. And because of all this, the AL Central is still a race going into this weekend's series at Minnesota.

Do we need to begin worrying about Edwin Jackson? (That is, if you weren't concerned already.) For the second consecutive start, he gave up five runs. And he was bad pretty much from the beginning today. Two of the first Royals batters reached base. Soon thereafter, Jackson left a fastball out over the plate for Alberto Callaspo, who smacked it into the left-centerfield gap for a two-run double.

(Callaspo can officially be added to the Tigers Killer club this season, after batting 8-for-21 with two homers and nine RBIs in his last six games vs. Detroit.)

After putting two of the first three batters on base in the third, Jackson put some finality on the day, teeing up a fastball right down the middle to Miguel Olivo. Olivo launched it out to the shrubs in dead center for a three-run homer and a 5-0 Royals lead.

It was already likely to be a struggle for the Tigers against Zack Greinke. But down five runs? Greinke allowed no runs in his five innings, giving up just three hits. He may have pitched longer, had Miguel Cabrera not hit a line drive at his throwing arm in the fourth inning. But after the Royals made it 8-0 in the bottom of the fifth (more on that later), there was no sense in pitching Greinke any more.

So what is the deal? Could it really be as simple as the Royals just being a bad match-up for the Tigers? (Robinson Tejeda, Callaspo, Billy Butler, etc.) Probably not. Was Detroit looking ahead to this weekend with the Twins? Perhaps, but that just sounds like an excuse.

Regardless, the mystery isn't going to be solved this season, as the Tigers are (thankfully?) done with playing the Royals. If the Tigers were indeed more preoccupied with the Twins and White Sox, they'll have ample opportunity to address those concerns over the remaining 12 games on the schedule.

Whimper:

As poorly as Jackson pitched today, at least he can say he didn't give up a homer to Josh Anderson. Anderson didn't even display warning track power while he was with the Tigers. (And hadn't with the Royals, either.) No, this singular honor goes to Armando Galarraga, who showed that he's not to be counted on for meaningful contributions down the stretch.

Galarraga faced six batters. Five of them reached base. He hit one with a pitch. Only 11 of his 21 pitches were thrown for strikes. Merriam-Webster might be changing their definition for "disaster" as you read this.

Comment of the Day:

Doomsayers - think on this:

The ’06 Cards finished 5 games over .500 & lost 9 of their last 12 going into the playoffs…

by moonshineboy

A Royal Flogging: Royals 11, Tigers 1

Ian Casselberry — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 02:20:54 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Jarrod Washburn can't bear to look at the four-run carnage he and his aching left knee left behind on the field Tuesday night.

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The less said about this, the better. Tonight's game was a disaster for the Detroit Tigers from the start.

How would Jarrod Washburn fare after skipping his last start to rest his aching left knee? Well, he struck out David DeJesus to begin the game. And his highlight reel ended there.

Washburn could not find the strike zone, throwing most everything off the plate as he tried to pitch away from the Kansas City hitters. The first Royals run was scored on a pitch far outside Alex Avila's reach. (It was scored a passed ball, but Avila would've had to be Plastic Man to catch that one.)

And when Washburn did throw a strike, it was up in the zone and hit hard. The Royals scored three more runs when Alberto Callaspo crushed a fastball deep to left-center field.

Somehow, Washburn got two more outs to end the inning. But that was the end of his evening. He was clearly having problems with that knee, limping around the mound after he got one of those outs. And the location of most of his pitches showed he wasn't getting a good push off the rubber. With that, Jim Leyland apparently decided he'd seen enough.

Washburn wasn't the only one who pitched badly tonight, however. Casey Fien served up a three-run homer to David DeJesus, eventually giving up four runs in three innings. Jeremy Bonderman gave up a three-run shot of his own to Miguel Olivo.

Actually, the pitching star of the evening was Zach Miner, who pitched two scoreless innings taking over for Washburn.

The only other thing worth noting about this game is that Don Kelly came in for Miguel Cabrera at first base and Brent Dlugach took over at third for Brandon Inge in the sixth inning. At that point, Leyland basically told everyone this game was lost.

Remember that comeback, walk-off win over the Blue Jays on Monday night? That was awesome.

Whimper:

Magglio Ordonez celebrated triggering his $18 million contract for next season by going 0-for-3. But really, it's unfair to single him out. This game was lost before the Tigers even came to bat.

Comment of the Night:

Did anyone else suddenly get a Beach Boys song in their head?

maybe it’s just me.

by MackAveKurt

Twins Hang On to Beat Royals

Jesse — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 12:20:07 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

4 months ago: Minnesota Twins left fielder Delmon Young (21) and center fielder Carlos Gomez (22) celebrate in the outfield after their 8-7 win in a baseball game against the Kansas City Royals, Saturday, Aug. 22, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. The Twins won the game 8-7. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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Twins 8, Royals 7

No Justin Morneau, no Joe Nathan, no problem? Not exactly. While Brian Duensing pitched about as well as could be expected, his bullpen wasn't able to close the door on an early lead. Bob Keppel and Jesse Crain each were tagged for a pair of runs, although Crain's second wasn't necessarily his fault.

Jose Mijares, on in relief of Crain, had Crain's man on third when he induced a shallow pop-fly to center field. Whether it was the wind, the lights or whether Carlos Gomez just didn't track it, he over-ran the ball and it bounced out of his glove as he stretched back over his head to try and make the catch.

Opposing Gomez's blunder was Alexi Casilla's superior play in the bottom of the third. Billy Butler slapped a grounder, a quick bouncing ball that looked like a sure shot to end up in right field and score at least one if not two runs. At a full sprint Casilla charged to his left and took a sprinting dive into the gap. He came up with the ball and threw onto first for the final out if the inning.

That was the way it was all night between the Royals offense and the Twins pitching. Kansas City out-hit the Twins 14-11 on the night, while also picking up three walks. Luckily the pitching was good enough when it counted, holding the Royals to a 3-for-19 mark with runners in scoring position. Matt Guerrier picked up a five-out save to lock down the win, although the ninth was just as shaky as the rest of the game.

Notes, studs and duds after the jump.

Michael Cuddyer blasted his 20th bomb of the season, while also tallying his 29th double. Cuddles is now batting .272/.340/.503 on the season. After years of offensive mediocrity (at best), the fact that a guy whose OPS of .843 makes him fourth on the team is very impressive.
Jason Kubel also picked up a pair of hits, including a double, and plated a trio of runs on the night.
Even after dropping the can of corn in the seventh inning, Gomez picked the ball off the grass and proceeded to gun down Alberto Callaspo as he tried to take third base. Mis-TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKKE!!!
Mijares wasn't charged with a run on Saturday night. He was the only Twins pitcher who wasn't.
Since July 10, Gomez is hitting .288/.345/.463. Honestly.

Stars
#3: Jason Kubel: Three runs driven in off a pair of hits--that'll do, Patches. That'll do.
#2: Michael Cuddyer: A big homer, a double, a pair of RBI's and a walk? Giggidy.
#1: Matt Guerrier: Okay he allowed a run, but he gave Joe Nathan a night off after he'd thrown more than 50 pitches on Friday night, and he still shut the door. Job done.

Dude
#1: Jesse Crain: AARRGGHH!!!
#2: Bob Keppel: Ditto.
#3: Delmon Young: 0-for-5, 5 LOB. AARRGGHH!!!

On Defense

chuckb — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 06:11:54 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

I'm fully prepared now to call the shift a success. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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I don’t mind seeing what they’ve got this spring but I think we’re deluding ourselves if we think that either Skip or Mather is going to win the 2b job and keep it throughout the season.

I posted that right here on February 8. I really don’t think I was that far off base at the time. I based that conclusion on 2 things – the notion that Skip’s defense would be pretty bad and CHONE’s offensive projections for Skip. CHONE had Skip w/ a .328 wOBA – roughly league average – and 0.2 wRAA and a UZR/150 equal to 2008’s worst defensive 2nd baseman. Last year, Jeff Kent’s UZR/150 was minus 15.5. This led me to the conclusion that Skip would be worth roughly 0.7 WAR, hardly very good production from a regular player.

	wRAA	UZR/150	positional adjustment	replacement level	Total RAR	WAR
Skip	0.2	-15.5	2.5	20	7.2	0.7

Over at fangraphs, R.J. Anderson had a more sanguine take on Skip’s move to the keystone. He used a different offensive assumption than I did. Rather than using CHONE’s projections, he assumed that Skip would have the same offensive season he had in 2008 – 6 wRAA. On defense, his assumption was basically the same as mine, though he took the average UZRs of the majors’ worst 2nd basemen over the last 5 years and came up w/ a UZR of minus 14. Using these numbers, Skip’s transition seemed to make a little more sense.

	wRAA	UZR/150	positional adjustment	replacement level	Total RAR	WAR
Skip	6	-14	2.5	20	14.5	1.45

But something happened on the way to mediocrity. For one thing, Skip’s offense hasn’t been quite as good as in 2008 but it’s been better than CHONE projected. Right now, he’s sitting w/ a wOBA of .334 – slightly above league average – and 1.7 wRAA. That’s a pace for approximately 2.4 wRAA by season’s end. As for his defense…well, it’s been pretty bad, but it’s been better than either R.J. or I anticipated. Right now his UZR is minus 9.7 runs and his UZR/150 is minus 12.8. This puts him last in the big leagues in UZR/150 but 2nd to last – in front of the Royals’ Alberto Callaspo – in UZR. Like I said, it’s bad but it’s not quite as bad as anticipated. Put it together and, as of right now, Skip’s prorated 2nd base numbers put him roughly at

	wRAA	UZR/150	positional adjustment	replacement level	Total RAR	WAR
Skip	1.65	-9.7	2.17	13.84	7.96	0.80

The positional adjustment above is computed based on the fact that Skip has played 86.5% of his innings this year at 2nd base. The wRAA and replacement level numbers are prorated based on the fact that Skip only has 3 starts in the OF. Therefore, approximately 3% of his PAs have come as an OF and 97% of his PAs have come as a 2B. This puts him on a pace to be worth roughly 1.13 WAR as a 2nd baseman. He’s been basically replacement level, or maybe a little less, as an OF.

But here’s the thing: Skip’s defense is improving. Derrick Goold noted that billjamesonline stated as much.

Bill James Online tracks a fielder's plus/minus, which awards a plus for a play outside an assigned zone and a minus for a missed play inside the zone. Schumaker had a minus 14 three months into his first season. In the past month, he has been a minus 3.

His UZR right now is minus 9.7 but his UZR/150 is getting lower and lower as the year goes along. By season’s end, it might be lower than minus 9.7 runs, but that run total is decreasing at a decreasing pace. In other words, I wouldn’t necessarily expect that he will be 30% MORE runs below 0 just b/c we have 30% of the season left. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me all that much if he’s still around minus 10 at season’s end. If so, we will have witnessed a remarkable transformation – one whose improvement would hopefully continue next season.

On the other hand, not enough has been made of La Russa’s bizarre decision the other night to allow Rick Ankiel to pinch hit with noted lefty-killer Arthur Rhodes on the mound. Khalil Greene was in the dugout and, w/ 2 out and 2 on in the bottom of the 8th, the situation called for Greene’s use. If not, under what circumstances WILL La Russa turn to Greene? If he can’t turn to him in those situations, why is he even on the roster? Allen Craig would’ve been a much better option there than Ankiel.

Allen Craig, inexplicably, has never been given a chance w/ the big club this year. Craig raked in spring training and is still hitting the cover off the ball w/ Memphis. Now, of course, we have no 3B ready to step in next year and, for whatever reason, Craig’s name never enters the discussion. We’re told that his defense prevents him from being considered.

True to the company line, Craig has played only 13 games at 3B this year. Most of his work has been done in LF and, failing a Holliday resigning, he absolutely needs to be considered for the LF job next year w/ the big club. That said, in looking at his total zone numbers I fail to see why he doesn’t get at least SOME consideration for the 3B job. Am I saying "Give him the job outright?" I absolutely am not. What I’m saying is – "Give him a shot at it!"

If you look at Craig’s total zone numbers over his minor league career, he’s been 2 runs below average at the hot corner over 630 minor league chances spread out over 4 seasons. Last year, David Wright and Kevin Kouzmanoff led all major league 3B in total chances w/ 416. So 630 chances is roughly a season and a half’s worth of chances – maybe a little more than that since we wouldn’t expect Craig to play as the hot corner as well as those 2. Let’s say it’s worth 1.6 seasons’ worth of chances. Craig’s -2, if we assume total zone is roughly equal to UZR and most people say they’re pretty close, would convert to approximately a UZR of minus 3.2 runs over a full season. Now, that’s below average (thus the minus!) but it’s also in the same neighborhood as ARod, Mark Reynolds and Aramis Ramirez last season and better than ARod, Wright, and Mike Lowell this season. In other words, there’s no reason to believe that Craig can’t be at least a respectable third baseman. If we’re ok going into the season believing that Skip’s going to be a minus 10 to minus 15 second baseman, isn’t a minus 3 third baseman worth a shot?

Finally, some here – and, of course Dan and Al – made light of Dusty Baker’s use of the infield shift to attempt to defend against Albert the other night. In case you missed it, he pulled Brandon Phillips almost behind 2nd base and moved (the since-traded) Alex Gonzalez more into the hole at short. Our illustrious broadcasters, as well as some Cards’ fans, scoffed at this – mostly b/c Dusty is a (ahem!) "peculiar" manager. However, if you look at Albert’s hit chart at mlb.com, the idea isn’t so crazy. (I’ve obviously forgotten how to capture an image from a screen, so go to the link and check "singles" and "ground outs" and you’ll see where Albert’s hit the ball so far this season.)

In looking at the hit chart for Busch Stadium, (you can’t create a hit chart for all stadiums at once) Albert has just 3 ground outs to the right of 2nd base all season. He only has 2 singles at Busch that might have been fielded by the right fielder. While his fly balls are much more evenly distributed, his hits and ground outs are strongly to the left side of 2nd base or up the middle. It seems to me that just by looking at that hit chart, there’s no reason not to put the shift on for Albert. We have this notion that Albert hits to all fields, and certainly he CAN, but he doesn’t very often. Positioning a 2nd baseman up the middle and a shortstop more in the hole will take more hits away from Albert than it will yield.

Besides, if I’m an opposing manager, I want to try and goad Albert into trying to sneak a single into the open hole I created by moving the 2nd baseman behind 2nd base. That way, he won’t hit the ball out of the ballpark. If I were Albert, I wouldn’t fall for their ploy. I have no idea how many hits this shift will take away from Albert – probably a net of fewer than 10 over the course of a season – but it’s better than nothing.

Different Trade Philosophies for the Giants

Grant — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 16:55:12 -0000

Everyone has tired of one of life's simplest pleasures, rosterbation. That's sad. It isn't even the last week of July. There's still a lot left, folks. Put some aloe vera on, and get back in the ring.

Instead of writing about players I do or don't want, it might be a better opening salvo to group the players into four categories:

1. Rent-a-Players

These are players who will be around in November if they really compress your accordion, but they also don't have a crazy amount of trade value. Adam LaRoche, Nick Johnson, Aubrey Huff, Felipe Lopez, and Adam Kennedy. It shouldn't take a top-ten prospect to even start the conversation about these players. There's also a question of whether they'd be marked improvements over Travis Ishikawa and Kevin Frandsen/Juan Uribe. It's easy to say, "sure, I'd trade Merkin Valdez for Aubrey Huff," but there's a decent chance Ishikawa is the better player over the next three months, and that's not even considering the value of the players traded away.

Note that this category doesn't really include Matt Holliday, as the A's are going to want a package that's better than the two first-round picks they'll get if Holliday signs with another team this offseason. That's a price that the Giants shouldn't pay. Though then the Giants would get those picks to help minimize the hit to the farm system. Now I'm confused. I still don't want Holliday, but it would all depend on what the A's want.

2. Stickin'-Arounders

These are the players who would be under the Giants' control for next season, at least. Freddy Sanchez and Dan Uggla are the obvious ones, but the Giants could get creative with good, young players having good seasons (Alberto Callaspo), or good, young players having poor seasons because of bad luck (Kelly Johnson). It's easy to get caught up in the somewhat-distant future (Posey! Bumgarner! Alderson!) and hold firm that the Giants should make every transaction with that eventual roster as the end game. But Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are pretty danged good right now. Aaron Rowand is a productive outfielder right now. Pablo Sandoval is a deserving All-Star right now. Maybe that will all be true in 2011, too, but there's a lot of sense in making a move that helps the Giants contend in 2010 as well as for the next three months.

But there's some pain involved. Uggla doesn't come over unless a top-four prospect goes back. Freddy Sanchez would probably come at a price of Jonathan Sanchez plus a prospect or two. The Royals have never mentioned anything about trading Callaspo, who's young and cheap, so they'd have to be knocked over with an offer. The Braves and Giants match up really well -- the Braves could use an outfielder to bridge the gap between zombie Garret Anderson and Jordan Schafer/Jason Heyward, and they already have the replacement for Kelly Johnson starting at second -- but even though it seems like Johnson's poor season is due to awful luck with balls put in play, maybe he's misplaced his talent for good.

3. Here. No backsies.

This is a pretty wide-open category, filled with players who are overpaid and/or not producing. The Giants could probably trade Eugenio Velez for Vernon Wells, for example. Of course Wells's contract might actually be worse than Barry Zito's, so there's a reason he's in the free box. The White Sox probably don't have a lot of interest in paying Paul Konerko $12M next season. Even though Scott Rolen is having a fantastic season, he's an injury-prone player scheduled to make $11M in 2010, so the Blue Jays shouldn't expect much in return if they decide to trade him. The Giants could find a good player for the short-term in this category, but he would probably limit the team's roster-building options for next year or longer.

4. Pop goes the farm system 'cause the farm system goes pop

Roy Halladay. Victor Martinez. Adrian Gonzalez. It's like the second category, but more painful. Sure, you can have them, but at least one of Posey/Bumgarner/Villalona/Alderson are going the other way. At least one, probably two, maybe more. A realistic package for Martinez, for example: Bumgarner, Villalona, and Sergio Romo. The throw-ins for a deal like this would be better than the entire package given up for the players in the first category.

It's kind of a weird trade deadline. Six months ago, would you have traded John Bowker straight up for Matt Holliday? Would you do that same deal today? Exactly. Freddy Sanchez for Jonathan Sanchez would have made blood come out of this site's nose in December, but it sure seems like a reasonable proposition these days. Put me down for one of #2 and maybe a #1 if the price is right. The Giants are a right side of an infield away from a decent lineup, and there are ways to get it without setting the farm ablaze. I hope.

Perkins Is Strong but Cuddyer Is Stronger, and the Twins Win Another Series

Jesse — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 22:22:30 -0000

More photos » by Ed Zurga - AP

5 months ago: Minnesota Twins catcher Mike Redmond, center, is helped to his feet by manager Ron Gardenhire, left, and a team trainer after he was injured during a baseball game against the Kansas City Royals in the fifth inning Wednesday, July 1, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. Redmond left the game. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

Browse more photos »

Royals give the Twins a couple runs, but even if they hadn't this one was going to Minnesota.

While the first inning was quiet, the second inning started with a bang. Michael Cuddyer took Gil Meche's first pitch of the inning and launched another line-drive home run into the left field seats of gorgeous Kauffman Stadium to give Minnesota their first run of the afternoon. It was the 12th of the year for Cuddles, and it's safe to say that at this point he's having the season we've wanted him to have since he lit up in 2006.

Meche did everything he could for the Royals. Six hits and five walks don't necessarily look good, but one of the three runs he allowed lays at the feet of Alberto Callaspo, whose Bill Buckner-like five-hole error allowed Joe Crede's routine grounder turn from a third out into a run. But none of Meche's walks scored, although Matt Tolbert's two-out walk in the sixth allowed Joe Mauer to step in and give the Twins their third run.

While Meche wasn't really bad, Glen Perkins was positively solid. He allowed ten hits but didn't walk a single batter, and the ultimate number is one. One, as in the number of runs he allowed. From the start he mixed up all of his pitches, only relying heavily on the fastball once his offense had spotted him a 2-0 lead. Kansas City did start to catch up with him a bit over the sixth and seventh, when they tallied half of their offensive hits on the day, but every time the Royals threatened Perk came back. The defense backed him up with a pair of double plays, and outside of Carlos Gomez over-running a fly-ball that had already bounced off the fence, there weren't any miscues made by the Twins.

The Royals? A different story.

In addtion to Callaspo's error in the third, the Kansas City bullpen ensured that any comeback attempt made by their offense would be as difficult as possible. After Robinson Tejeda struck out Gomez and Brendan Harris to kick off the top of the eighth, Denard Span singled and stole second base. Matt Tolbert followed that up with a single to score Span, advancing to second on the throw. With Justin Morneau having been removed the previous inning due to tightness in his groin, Tejeda did the smart thing and intentionally walked Mauer to set up the force at third. And then John Bale proceeded to walk two more, including Cuddyer with the bases loaded. By the time Roman Colon came on to get the final out, the Twins held a 5-1 lead with just six outs remaining for the Royals.

R.A. Dickey mopped up in the eighth and got two outs in the ninth, before a single and a walk brought up the man who could make it a two-run game with one swing of the bat. Ron Gardnehire did the right thing and brought in Joe Nathan to lock down the win, even if it was for a cheap one-out save, and Nathan did his job. David DeJesus slapped a hard grounder to Brian Buscher at first base, who took it himself to retire the Royals for the final time in the series.

Right now I haven't seen any updates on the guys who had to leave the game, but here's the run-down for how it looks as of right now.

Morneau left due to the sore groin. With an off day tomorrow and on Monday, the Twins have the luxury of keeping him in the designated hitter role over the weekend if they want to take it slow with him, unless it's something worse in which case he'll likely miss this series before Minnesota puts him on the DL retroactive to today. We should find out by tonight whether this is an issue or a non-issue.
Nick Punto left with more soreness in his back, and he was slow getting up after getting taken out while turning a double play at the end of the sixth.
Mike Redmond also was removed, taking a foul ball off his forearm. X-Rays are negative, but he does have a bone bruise. He'll be sore for a few days.

Stars of the Game
#3: Joe Mauer (3-for-3, R, RBI, 2 BB, .160 WPA)
#2: Michael Cuddyer (1-for-3, HR, 2 RBI, R, 2 BB, .155 WPA)
#1: Glen Perkins (7 IP, 10 H, 1 K, 0 BB, 1 R, .358 WPA)