SB Nation - Micah Owings

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 2: The Red Menace

the red baron — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:35:23 -0000

Um, I think Jocketty is the one on the left.

I decided I'm going to try and do these in order from best to worst in the division; unfortunately, that now means I have to try and come up with preseason predictions before the offseason is even half over. Not a great idea on my part, really; I should have done them in alphabetical order or something. Oh, well. Too late for such considerations now, I suppose.

Of all the teams in the Central, perhaps none is so enigmatic as the Cincinnati Reds. Every spring for god knows how many years now we've heard the constant refrain, "Look out for the Reds this year. This is the year they finally turn that corner." Now, to be fair, we hear much the same thing about the Pirates, but predictions of Pittsburgh's rise are always couched not in terms of contention, but in terms of near-winning baseball. Thus, even as the predictions are made, our natural inclination toward Piratic indifference kicks in. The Reds, on the other hand, are a different story.

See, the thing about the Reds is this: they have some really, really good players. Players I would love to have on my team. They stole Brandon Phillips from their in-state rivals just a couple offseasons back, right from under the Cards' noses, even as Junior Spivey was busily reminding us not all reclamation projects end up reclaiming anything. Sometimes the ship stays sunk. (By the by, I'm proud to say I was one of the people hoping and advocating for the Cards to bring in Phillips. Sadly, our voices were not heard.) The Reds have some outstanding young arms. Their closer is one of the better ones in the business. (Still not worth his contract, but that's another issue entirely.) The right fielder is the guy the Cardinals really wanted in 2005; they chose Colby Rasmus specifically because he was the most similar player to Jay Bruce in the draft. There is some real talent here.

Yet somehow, year after year, those cries which warn us of the approaching Cincinnati domination always turn out to be wrong. Every year the Reds find some way not to win. It's gotten to the point I almost fear the offseason when no one cautions against the Reds; perhaps the spell will then be broken and this long-benighted franchise will step fully into the light. Or, perhaps not.

Either way, a little insurance can't possibly be a bad thing.

This is the year, folks. Watch out for the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Record: 78-84, 13 games out of first

Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (673 runs scored, 723 allowed)

It was another disappointing year for the Reds, who came into the 2009 season with one of the most promising teams Cincinnati has seen in years. There was tons of optimism, and rightfully so; the Reds' rotation was immensely talented and young, just beginning to come into its own. Unfortunately, the struggles of youth and the injury bugbear combined to rob the Reds of their pitching bite, and the offense simply wasn't good enough to compensate.

Offense: After years of watching the Dunn/Griffey led Reds mash their way through the division while failing to hold anyone to less than seven runs per game, the 2009 Reds were a positively anemic change of pace. The Cardinals were not a particularly prolific offensive team, but the Reds made them look positively potent by comparison. (I'm feeling quite loquacious this morning, by the way. Does it show?) The Cardinals scored 730 runs, 57 more than the limp-lumbered lads from Cincy. Nearly six wins worth of offensive production is nothing to sneeze at.

While the Reds' problems at the platter in 2009 were legion, one can point to two areas in particular which acted as anchors around the necks of the Redlegs. On the one hand, you have the outfield. Then, on the other hand, you have the infield.

One of the more glaring issues for the Reds was the appallingly average sophomore slump of Jay Bruce, who followed up what was a very encouraging debut season with, essentially, the exact same performance. Not that that's the worst thing in the world, mind you; Bruce's OPS+ was 97 in '08 and 100 in '09, making him exactly league average, but this is Jay F. Bruce we're talking about here. He's young, yes, but you still don't expect him to be duking it out with Skip Schumaker for the title of Averagest HItter in all Baseballdom.

The good news, for Cincinnati fans at least, is this: Jay Bruce is still a better hitter than what he's shown in the majors. I feel completely confident in saying I still expect Bruce to be a star, given time to grow and better health. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the rest of the Reds' outfield. This is, after all, a team which paid Willy Taveras actual, honest to god money to post a .559 OPS over the course of 400+ at-bats. Laynce Nix proved a source of superfluous Y's and steroid speculation, but little else. (Well, except against the Cardinals, that is.) He did put up an OPS+ of 98, but from a left fielder, you've got to expect a bit more thump. The lone real bright spot for the Reds was Johnny Gomes, who hit quite well in the Great American Bandbox, to the tune of an .879 OPS. Unfortunately, Johnny Gomes plays defense like Chris Duncan using an oven mitt. Still, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

On the infield, things were a bit more of a mixed bag. The right side of the Reds' gamut of grounder grabbers was brilliant, with Joey Votto establishing himself as a legitimate force (OPS of .981 for the season), and Brandon Phillips turning in another of his usual five-tool showcase performances. The left side of the infield, however, oy. Not so much. Paul Janish and Adam Rosales took the lion's shares of at-bats at shortstop and third base, respectively, and both posted OPS's in the low .600s. (Janish took the low .600s thing to the extreme, posting a .601.) Jerry Hairston played a fair amount at various positions all over the diamond and was a little better, though he still wasn't inspiring shock and awe in too many opposing pitchers.

Now that's the bad news. The good news (again, for Reds' fans), is that there will be different faces at several positions for 2010. Drew Stubbs, the Reds' uber-athletic Mike Cameron clone, came up late in the season and displayed a wide base of exciting tools in center field. Stubbs has speed, he has power, and he can go get it with the best of them in the field. The only thing holding him back is his tendency to take lots and lots of empty swings. Sort of a center field version of Tyler Greene.

The other big upgrade the Reds can count on is, of course, our old buddy Scott Rolen. Rolen came over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade and played quite well for the Reds, hitting .270/.364/.401 and playing defense which was nearly Rolenesque. The Rolen of old is gone and he's never coming back, but the new model is still a substantial upgrade over what the Reds were trotting out most of the season.

Starting Pitching

What was supposed to be the biggest strength for the Reds ended up helping to drag them down. As the year opened, there were some touting the Reds' 1-2 rotation punch of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto as the best in the National League, and perhaps one of the best in all of baseball. Sadly, Volquez succumbed to injury, having Tommy John surgery in early August, and Cueto seemed to take a step backward from his rookie campaign, even though he ended up with a lower ERA for the season. Cueto started off hot, then imploded in the late summer months, allowing an opponent's OPS of 1.026(!) in July and .938 in August. He did turn things around a bit at the end of the season, pitching better in September, but it wasn't enough to wash away the sins of the previous two months.

As strange as it sounds, Bronson Arroyo actually had sort of an okay year. Sort of. Kind of. He went 15-13, 3.84, gave up less hits than innings pitched (214 H in 220.1 IP), and struck out almost twice as many batters as he walked. Now, as to how he did it, I honestly have no idea. Every time I saw Arroyo, he was being yanked out of the game after giving up five runs in two and a third. He's basically Swamp Gas II: the Swampening at this point for me. Homer Bailey continued to frustrate those of us who believe prospect ranking should count for something, damn it, by not turning into Nolan Ryan, but there were positive signs. While his overall numerical profile doesn't inspire much confidence, Bailey did pitch extraordinarily well in September, going 4-1, 2.08 and striking out 42 batters in 43.1 innings while walking 19. Let's put it this way: if Walt or Dusty decide Homer's just not going to work out up there, I would be more than happpy to take him off their hands.

Elsewhere in the Reds' rotation, Aaron Harang was bad again, Micah Owings was a really good hitter, and Kip Wells gave Cincinnati a taste of the 2007 Cardinal magic.

The rotation could very well still be a strength in 2010 for the Reds. If Bailey really has turned a corner and Cueto can find a bit of his early-season magic after Memorial Day, Cincy could have a nice tandem atop the rotation. Add Volquez possibly returning for the stretch run, and that's an intriguing trio. And as much as it pains me to say it, you could probably do worse than Bronson Arroyo and the Harangutan for your 4th and 5th spots. (Then again, for what the Reds are paying those guys, they could also do miles better.)

Bullpen

And now we come to the real strength of the Cincinnati Reds: their bullpen. (I'll take 'Sentences I Never Expected to Speak' for $600, Alex.) After years of wandering in the desert, searching for relievers, the Reds seem to have finally found the guys to put the kibosh on any late-inning uprisings.

Francisco Cordero is not worth his contract. We'll just get that out of the way up front. Nonetheless, he's a very, very good pitcher even as he enters his mid 30s, posting a 2.16 ERA last season. He could fall off a cliff, but I don't think he will. I think we're just going to have to put up with him being good for the near future. Maybe we could get Spiezio to sober up and just pinch-hit during series with Cincinnati...

The biggest difference for the Reds between 2009 and past seasons was the emergence of Nick Masset and Danny Ray Herrera, the Screwball Kid himself, as legitimate setup men. In the past, even when the Reds had a player who could shut the door at the end of the game (remember when Todd Coffey looked like a good pitcher for like three months? Wasn't that weird?), there was nothing in the way of a bridge to get there. With Masset and Herrera, the Reds finally have that bridge.

The rest of the Redleg relief corps was solid but nothing spectacular. Arthur Rhodes was good, making me wish the Cardinals had more Rhodehouse and less Diner, but secondary LOOGY certainly isn't anything to get too very upset about.

Offseason Priorities

To be honest, I'm not sure how much Walt Jocketty and the rest of his communist cronies are going to be doing this offseason. The very same thing that makes the Reds such an intriguing team is the thing which makes them so difficult to improve. The Reds are a transitional team, and the opportunity cost of bringing in marginal upgrades may just prove to be a bit too steep. Add in the fact Cincinnati appears to have very little breathing room in terms of payroll, and I think it will likely be a relatively quiet offseason for Jocketty and Co.

The two big opportunities for the Reds to make upgrades are at shortstop and left field; unfortunately, upgrading at either of those spots is easier said than done this winter. The Reds lack the financial capacity to get into the bidding for either of the big LF prizes, Holliday or Jason Bay, and most of the other players available would represent a middling upgrade at best. The Reds have two players in their system, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey, who both could see time in left in 2010. Frazier is a third baseman by trade, but earns his keep mostly with the bat, and could see outfield time a la Allen Craig just to get him into the lineup. Heisy is a speedy, plus-defense type with a line-drive swing and fair on-base skills. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds bring back Gomes as a LF/1B guy on days when Votto isn't playing and try to work one or both of Heisy/ Frazier in slowly with ABs in left.

Shortstop, on the other hand, might be a bit more interesting. There aren't a whole lot of guys out there, but there are a couple decent names. If the Reds were looking for an offensive upgrade, either Miguel Tejada or Felipe Lopez could offer a bat for a fair value. Of course, both have significant questions surrounding their abilities to play shortstop, but hey, I said offensive upgrade. If Cincinnati decided to go more for a defense-first guy, Orlando Cabrera can still pick it with the best of them. Regardless, I think shortstop is the most likely position to look toward if the Reds are going to make a move this offseason.

I'm sure Jocketty and Baker would like to pick up a more dependable arm for depth in the rotation, but I'm not sure they'll have the payroll to do so. The Reds are already paying Harang and Arroyo gobs of money; they may try to deal for an arm but I don't see a signing there. The bullpen actually needs the least help of all; they may sign a guy to replace Rhodes if he leaves or something like that, but I think the relief corps is largely set.

The Bottom Line

Do I think the Reds are going to be better than Milwaukee? I must, since I did them before the Brew Crew, right? The answer is a decided and unequivocal maybe. I think the Reds have the potential, certainly, to improve more than probably any other team in the division, simply based on their young talent base. I think the Brewers largely are who we think they are, a team of tremendous offensive talent and very, very limited pitching resources. The Reds, on the other hand, have a lot of untapped potential on both sides of the equation, and depending on how things break, they could vault up the standing in the Central or remain the same enigmatic bunch of underachievers they have been for years now.

I think the addition of Scott Rolen was a cataclysmically bad one, but, paradoxically, I also believe he'll make the Reds better in the coming season. He should provide just enough offense while helping the pitchers out significantly.

In the end, the success or failure of the Reds' 2010 season will likely have little to do with what, if any, moves Walt Jocketty makes this winter. Rather, the fate of the first season of the new decade (eat it, Matty!), will hinge largely on the three pillars upon which we've been told Cincinnati's new glory would be built for years: Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto. If those three are the players they were thought to be on the way up, the Reds could very well make some noise. If not, it could be another very long summer in the home of the world's shittiest chili.

The Baron's Playlist for the 16th of December, 2009: the Christmas Catalogue

(In no particular order, by the way)

"Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
"Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (listen closely; she's actually saying fucking pie. Seriously.)
"You're All I Want for Christmas" - Brook Benton
"A Change at Christmas (Say it Isn't So)" - the Flaming Lips
"Merry Xmas Everybody" - Slade
"Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (this is the song that will one day force me to pull to the side of the road and cry when my mother is gone)
"White Christmas" - The Drifters (sorry, but this one is way, way better than the Bing Crosby version)
"Happy Christmas (War is Over)" - John Lennon and Yoko Ono
"Blue Christmas" - Elvis Presley
"Happy Holidays" - Alabama (I really, really hate Alabama, but I loved this song when I was a kid listening to the old True Value Hardware Christmas records)
"We're Going to the Country!" - Sufjan Stevens
"Peace on Earth/ Little Drummer Boy" - David Bowie and Bing Crosby
"Marshmallow World" - Dean Martin
"God Rest Ye, Merry Gentlemen" - Nat King Cole (another True Value special)
"Frosty the Snowman" - The Ronettes
"Jingle Bells" - Glenn Miller
"I'll Be Home for Christmas" - Frank Sinatra
"I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" - Gayla Peevey
"Christmastime is Here" - The Vince Guaraldi Trio (sadly, this song underwent one of the worst remasters I believe I've ever heard just a couple years ago; find the old, unremastered version.)
"Christmas Wrapping" - the Waitresses (this song is utter crap. I fucking love it.)

I'm going to stop at 20. It's tough for me to do, but I'm going to do it.

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 4: Pitching

JinAZ — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:14:43 -0000

To recap thus far, 2009 saw the offense drop considerably, the fielding improve dramatically, with a net effect being that the 2009 position players were probably at least as good, if not slightly better than the 2008 Reds squad of position players.

What about the 2009 pitchers? Since the fate of a pitcher in the boxscore is directly tied to the fielders playing behind him, we need to adjust for fielders. Here are three ways of doing that, and how the last several years of Reds pitchers have fared using each approach:

Here's what is shown above:

UZR-adj Runs Allowed is straight-up runs allowed (park adjusted), with UZR-based team fielding factored out. For example, this year, UZR rates the Reds as a +53 fielding team. So, I added 53 runs to the runs allowed total to "simulate" what would have happened with an average-fielding team.
FIP-based runs allowed uses team FIP to estimate runs allowed per game, and then extrapolates to the full season. FIP stands for "fielding independent runs," and uses K, BB, HBP, and HR rates to estimate runs allowed independent of a teams' fielders or context. I park-adjusted K, BB, HBP, and HR rates.
tRA-based runs allowed is straight-up pRAA from statcorner, summed for starters and relievers. It is based on tRA, which is billed as a sort of "FIP on steroids." It uses K, BB, and all batted ball rates (LD, FB, GB, HR/FB, all park adjusted) to estimate runs allowed in a manner that again should be independent of fielders or context. I am unclear if pRAA is based on tRA or tRA* (tRA* is the regressed version).

As you can see, the UZR-adjusted number is more volatile, which makes sense given that it's based on actual runs allowed and thus is subject to all kinds of "luck" (not to mention the volatility of a fielding stat!). The FIP and tRA stats, on the other hand, basically parallel each other, with pRAA being consistently more negative about the team than FIP. These two stats do largely the same thing (though with somewhat different input data and methods), and in my experience are usually within spitting distance of each other. So while I'm not surprised to see them running parallel, I am surprised to see such a large quantitative difference between them in RAA. It seems to me, at least over the last four years, that the "real" data (UZR-adjusted runs allowed) have more closely matched FIP, which makes me more inclined to believe FIP. Maybe pRAA is using the wrong baseline (I'm comparing to all NL pitchers), or is more severe in its park adjustments? (fwiw, while I still like tRA, I am much less enamored with it--and much less ready to ditch FIP--than I was, say, 6 months ago. This is just the latest reason).

Anyway, looking at each line individually, you can see that all three statistics point to the same thing: pitching fell off a bit this year. And, if you look at just the FIP or tRA lines, it was in its worst state since Bronson Arroyo's arrival in 2006. What happened? Obviously, the Volquez injury was huge. But that's not the only story here. Player by player breakdowns below the jump.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.

Name	IP	pLI	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	GB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WARra	WARfip	WARhit	WAR
Aaron Harang	162.3	0.9	7.9	2.4	1.3	12%	35%	0.339	4.21	3.96	2.5	2.7	0.0	2.7
Bronson Arroyo	220.3	1.0	5.2	2.7	1.3	12%	45%	0.270	3.84	4.63	4.5	2.0	-0.2	1.7
Johnny Cueto	171.3	0.9	6.9	3.2	1.3	11%	42%	0.296	4.41	4.63	2.3	1.5	0.1	1.6
Francisco Cordero	66.7	1.9	7.8	4.1	0.3	3%	41%	0.301	2.16	3.10	2.8	1.6	0.0	1.6
Nick Masset	76.0	1.1	8.3	2.8	0.7	10%	54%	0.250	2.37	3.25	2.4	1.2	0.0	1.2
Arthur Rhodes	53.3	1.5	8.1	3.4	0.5	5%	41%	0.249	2.53	3.10	2.0	1.1	0.0	1.1
Homer Bailey	113.3	1.0	6.8	4.1	1.0	9%	43%	0.306	4.53	4.38	1.4	1.3	-0.3	1.0
Micah Owings	119.7	1.0	5.1	4.8	1.4	11%	37%	0.286	5.34	5.53	0.4	-0.1	1.1	1.0
Jared Burton	59.3	0.9	6.8	3.5	0.8	6%	43%	0.314	4.40	3.75	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.5
Daniel Ray Herrera	61.7	0.8	6.4	3.5	0.7	9%	50%	0.309	3.06	3.91	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.5
Josh Roenicke	13.3	0.2	9.5	2.7	0.0	0%	47%	0.355	2.70	2.03	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.4
Matt Maloney	40.7	0.9	6.2	1.8	2.0	13%	34%	0.282	4.87	5.16	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.3
Carlos Fisher	52.3	0.5	8.3	5.3	0.7	7%	44%	0.316	4.47	4.02	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3
Paul Janish	2.0	0.0	13.5	9.0	9.0	50%	50%	0.726	49.50	14.99	-0.1	-0.1	0.3	0.2
Edinson Volquez	49.7	1.1	8.5	5.8	1.1	14%	45%	0.231	4.35	4.99	0.8	0.3	-0.2	0.1
Robert Manuel	4.3	0.2	4.2	2.1	0.0	0%	33%	0.329	0.00	2.97	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1
Kip Wells	46.3	0.9	4.9	4.3	1.0	11%	49%	0.232	4.66	5.15	0.6	0.1	-0.1	0.0
Ramon Ramirez	12.3	0.6	5.8	2.9	1.5	11%	37%	0.183	3.65	5.03	0.2	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Pedro Viola	7.0	0.4	6.4	3.9	2.6	18%	38%	0.253	5.14	6.43	0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
David Weathers	38.0	1.6	6.4	4.0	1.7	15%	43%	0.200	3.32	5.23	1.0	-0.3	0.0	-0.3
Justin Lehr	65.3	0.9	4.6	3.9	1.9	16%	40%	0.277	5.37	6.09	0.4	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4
Mike Lincoln	23.0	0.7	3.5	7.4	2.7	23%	44%	0.283	8.22	8.75	-0.6	-0.7	0.0	-0.7

Notes on table: pLI is an indication of the leverage of the situations in which a pitcher pitched. pLI = 1 on average, pLI=2 when situations are twice as influential on game outcome as usual, pLI=0.5 when situations are half as influential on game outcome as usual. FIP is Fielding Independent Runs, with park adjustments for each coefficient (see above). WARra is Wins Above Replacement based on actual runs charged to a pitcher (park adjusted). It is calculated following Tango's methods, including the leverage adjustment. WARfip is WAR based on FIP. WARhit is an overall hitting assessment, which will be different from the last post because I discovered I was using much too low of a position adjustment for pitchers (sorry!). WAR is the sum of WARfip and WARhit.

Bronson Arroyo had the best season of the group based on traditional stats, and is our official 2009 Reds Pitcher of the Year. Clearly, he's the only one who topped 200 innings, and that has a lot of value in and of itself. Harang, in contrast, seemingly had another sub-par season, at least by his standards. This was especially true with respect to durability: thanks to his appendix, he only reached 162 innings this season, his lowest total since 2004.

But as Slyde showed recently, the major driving factor behind the differences in these two pitchers was actually some combination of fielding and luck: Harang's batted balls became hits 34% of the time compared to just 27% with Arroyo. In fact, if you look at his peripherals, Harang had a better strikeout rate (by a lot), a better walk rate, and an equivalent home run allowed rate (with identical HR/F rates) to Arroyo. Based on this, and despite his much lower innings total, Harang comes in as the more valuable pitcher this year...by a full win...over Arroyo!

I'm actually a bit concerned about Arroyo. His strikeout rate dropped considerably this year. Although he was improved in the second half, my pet belief is that Arroyo's success depends largely on his strikeout rate. Then again, he's shown large fluctuations in strikeout rate in the past, so hopefully this is just a blip. The Reds need him to be a 2-win pitcher next year if they're going to do anything.

Johnny Cueto had by most accounts a very successful season. He started strong, but seemed to taper off as the season wore on, perhaps due to workload: he pitched in both winterball and the WBC last winter, which is far too many innings for my comfort. I'd like to see him get back into the 8+ k/9 range where he was in 2008--if he does, he could be a force.

Homer Bailey had a heck of a turnaround season. Citing some changes in his delivery that occurred during the offseason, Bailey started slow, but then something seemed to just "click." The result was a tremendously successful final few months of the season. I still don't know if what we saw was real or not, but I sure hope it was. Given his playing time, he probably has the biggest error bars around his projection of any pitcher on this team, and perhaps across the entire league.

Micah Owings has probably the most interesting row on the list. As a pitcher, he wasn't very impressive. Low strikeout rate, VERY high walk rate, and low ground ball rates do not tend to lead to success. But the amazing thing is that he was able to couple that replacement-level pitching performance with hitting that clocks in right at league average. The result? A 1 WAR pitcher. You can do worse from your #5 starter. Or long reliever/pinch hitter. Whatever he is these days. Fascinating player.

Speaking of the bullpen, it sure looked excellent this year. Cordero, Rhodes, and the revelational Nick Masset combined for sub-3 ERA's and low-3 FIP's. Jared Burton (FIP 3.75), Danny Herrera (seems like the screwball works, at least on lefties), and Carlos Fisher (scary walks) also performed adequately in middle relief. If Bill Bray comes back strong following Tommy John, this could be a great young relief core moving forward. Well, minus Rhodes, because he's old.

Speaking of old, Cordero's line looks a little shaky from where I sit. His strikeout rate has gone from 12 k/9 in 2007 to 10 k/9 in 2008 to 8 k/9 in 2009. His walk rate was about where it is supposed to be, but his home run rate is artificially low, thanks to an extremely lucky HR per Fly Ball rate of 3%. I don't know if it's related, but he threw a lot more fastballs this year than last (63% vs. ~50% in prior seasons)...maybe the slider wasn't working as well as it used to? The Reds owe him two more seasons at $12M per year.

Overall, this wasn't a terrible pitching staff. But it also wasn't a pitching staff that featured any fantastic individual performances. And the rotation wasn't as strong as it has been in recent years, especially with injuries to Edinson Volquez and Harang. Volquez apparently thinks he will be back mid-next season, which could be a nice shot in the arm if the team is able to do anything with the first half. We'll see.

...

Wrap up and looking forward: So, that's your 2009 Reds. Fun in April and September, utterly forgettable in between. I don't know where this team is going, honestly. There are some good parts here. There are solid, steady contributers in Votto, Rolen, Phillips, Harang, and Arroyo. And there is youth with some nice upside in Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Stubbs, and Volquez (when he returns). And there's more help on the way in Frazier, Alonso, and Leake. But it's also a team that is seeing some key players, especially pitchers, start to show signs of aging.

Given this, I wonder if 2010 is the year with the best window for success? And if so, can the cash-strapped Reds do what they need to do--plugging holes, mostly--to put themselves in a position to take advantage of some good fortune if it arrives?

The Greatest Reds: #23 - #21

riverfront76 — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 17:00:14 -0000

23. Adam Dunn

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
2001-2008	LF, RF	24	22	19
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	2004	2004, 2005, 2007
92%	8%	0%	2004	2004, 2005, 2007
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star – 2002	Walks – 2008		-1st in career AB/HR ratio -2nd in career slugging percentage -4th in career home runs -6th in career on-base percentage -10th in career OPS+

The Big Donkey. Dunn was an incredibly divisive character during his time with the Reds, owing to his prodigious power, remarkably high strikeout totals, and disinterested defense. Although he was traded before the 2008 trade deadline, Dunn was consistent with his home run output, hitting 46 in 2004 before running off four straight seasons of exactly 40. However, despite the power (Dunn was also good for 25-35 doubles a year), Dunn’s run production was suspect, topping out at just 106 RBI in his peak year. The high strikeouts (led the league in each year from 2004-2006) belied a strong command of the strike zone, as Dunn was generally a lock for over 100 walks each year, leading to his on-base percentage with the Reds running 133 points higher than his career batting average. Ultimately, despite being the best Red of the first decade in the 21st century, Dunn was marked for what he couldn’t do, namely lead the Reds to a winning mark. He was traded in 2008 for Micah Owings and Wilkin Castillo.

22. Paul Derringer

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1933-1942	SP	18	24	28
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1939	1935
0%	0%	100%	1939	1935
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star – 1935, 1938, 1939, 1940, 1941, 1942	Home Runs Per Inning – 1933 Games Started – 1936, 1938, 1940 Games Pitched – 1936 Innings Pitched – 1938 Complete Games – 1938 W-L Percentage – 1939 Strikeout / Walk Ratio – 1939 Walks Per Inning – 1939, 1940		-3rd in career wins -3rd in career walks per inning -3rd in career innings pitched -6th in career strikeouts -35th in career ERA+

The Reds traded two washed-up players and a never-would-be to the Cardinals for Derringer and a pair of others early on in the 1933 season. Derringer’s introduction was suspect: losing 25 games with the Reds despite a 105 ERA+. He lost over 20 games the next year as well, despite improving his rate stats. Through the 1937 season, Derringer was roughly an average pitcher, with a losing record compiled for a lousy team. Over the next three seasons, Derringer was a very good #2 pitcher for a much improved team, going 66-33 with a 2.97 ERA (126 ERA+) over 904 innings in that stretch. In the 1940 World Series, Derringer was rewarded with the Game 1 starting assignment. He was knocked out of the game before recording his 5th out, allowing 5 runs. He bounced back nicely, with complete game victories in games 4 and 7, the latter a stunning 2-1 thriller. Over his 10 seasons with Cincinnati, Derringer amassed 161 wins and threw for a 111 ERA+ in over 2600 innings.

21. Ken Griffey, Sr

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1973-81, 1988-90	RF, 1B, CF, LF	19	26	24
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1976	1980
88%	12%	0%	1976	1980
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
All Star MVP – 1980 All Star – 1976, 1977, 1980	N/A		-14th in career runs scored -15th in career batting average -18th in career triples -18th in career doubles -22nd in career OPS+

Presumably one of the best players ever selected in the 29th round of the amateur draft, Griffey went on to have a career that spanned 19 seasons. It’s difficult to tie together Griffey’s numbers with my standing perception of the player…it feels like something’s missing from the stats. For example, in Griffey’s first stint with the Reds, he played in a little over 1000 games. If the cumulative stats from those years are normalized to represent an average 162-game year, his stat line looks like this: 307/375/437 (125 OPS+), 162 games, 597 AB, 104 runs, 184 hits, 31 2B, 9 3B, 9 HR, 66 RBI, 23 SB, 65 BB. Good numbers, to be sure, but: A) he really only averaged 116 games played per year in that stint; and B) even bumped up to the 162 game normalization, the numbers don’t evoke visions of a starting right-fielder on one of the greatest offensive teams in baseball history. It’s possible I’m not taking the era enough into account, so maybe this is overly harsh. Additionally, the numbers seem to indicate a below-average fielder, despite Griffey’s legendary speed. Other notes: 1) in his career season of 1976, Griffey had his one great offensive season, hitting for a 140 OPS+ and adding 34 steals; 2) to his credit, Griffey’s decline was very slow, and he remained a useful hitter into his 40’s; 3) Griffey’s postseason performances were hit or miss, but overall they were on the weak side (.240 batting average, 661 OPS in 83 plate appearances); and 4) Senior had about 800 more plate appearances with the Reds than his son. And though there styles of play were as different as good be, Senior’s OPS+ with Cincy ended up at 123, just edging out Junior’s 122 mark. I’m sure this comes up a lot at family reunions, and not Junior’s lifetime 480 home run advantage.

The Top 15 Right Fielders in Reds history

1 Ken Griffey, Sr

2 Ival Goodman

3 Mike Mitchell

4 Curt Walker

5 Reggie Sanders

6 Dusty Miller

7 Paul O'Neill

8 Dave Parker

9 Greasy Neale

10 Wally Post

11 Sam Crawford

12 Johnny Wyrostek

13 Tommy Harper

14 Dave Collins

15 Tommy Griffith

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 2: Offense

JinAZ — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:00:14 -0000

A late season surge helped prevent a historically bad offense, but nonetheless, relative to average, the Reds fell off 26 runs in 2009 to 71 runs below average (after park adjustments). It was the worst Reds offense since the 1997 team (95 runs below average). On a team level, where did this offensive dropoff come from? Let's go position-by-position:

Notes: Batting runs are the "Batting" stat from fangraphs, which are park-adjusted for us, and include all players at each position on the '08 and '09 Reds teams. Players playing multiple positions had their offenses pro-rated based on innings played at each position.

The Reds had a nice uptick at 1B and 2B thanks to improved offensive seasons by both Votto and Phillips. But there were major dropoffs in offense at 3B, SS, and LF. 3B was largely due to the massive underperformance of (and injury to) Encarnacion and subsequent powerless debut by Scott Rolen. At SS and LF, the story is a bit more nuanced. The Reds had guys who were essentially playing out of position at those positions in 2008 (Dunn, Hairston, Keppinger), but in 2009 were replaced by guys who didn't hit as well but contributed significantly better fielding (Janish, Dickerson, etc). Also, given how much time Paul Bako got in 2008, I was surprised to not see better offense from our catchers. But then I looked again at the 2009 catchers' hitting stats and it all made sense again. More on the individual players below.

For the individual player stats, there are a few flourishes that distinguishes what follows from what you'll find at Fangraphs, for example (which is my primary data source). First, everything's park adjusted. This is a big deal for Cincinnati, which is a moderate hitter's park (5 year regressed park factor has climbed to 1.04!). Second, the last three columns include not only the hitting information, but also full baserunning info from BPro. This includes not only stolen bases, but also things like advancing 1st to 3rd on a single.

Here are all individual Reds player performances for 2009. The table is sortable if you click in the header. I've italicized pitchers to make it easier to ignore them if you wish to do so.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	GB%	LD%	FB%	EqBRR	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	wOBA*	wRAA*	wRAR*
Joey Votto	544	13%	23%	39%	22%	39%	-0.3	0.372	0.322	0.414	0.567	0.245	0.411	38.3	52.7
Brandon Phillips	644	7%	13%	50%	17%	33%	3.0	0.284	0.276	0.329	0.447	0.171	0.339	5.3	22.3
Jonny Gomes	314	9%	30%	34%	20%	46%	-0.1	0.309	0.267	0.338	0.541	0.274	0.367	10.1	18.4
Jay Bruce	387	10%	22%	39%	13%	49%	0.0	0.221	0.223	0.303	0.470	0.247	0.324	-2.1	8.1
Chris Dickerson	299	13%	26%	50%	22%	29%	-1.9	0.360	0.275	0.370	0.373	0.098	0.325	-1.2	6.7
Laynce Nix	337	7%	26%	38%	20%	43%	1.1	0.272	0.239	0.291	0.476	0.237	0.321	-2.7	6.2
Wladimir Balentien	125	12%	25%	47%	18%	35%	0.5	0.325	0.264	0.352	0.427	0.163	0.345	1.6	4.9
Drew Stubbs	196	8%	27%	42%	21%	37%	-1.3	0.325	0.267	0.323	0.439	0.172	0.328	-0.4	4.8
Juan Francisco	25	13%	33%	57%	29%	14%	0.3	0.615	0.429	0.520	0.619	0.190	0.503	3.8	4.4
Scott Rolen	162	12%	15%	46%	16%	38%	-1.5	0.291	0.270	0.364	0.401	0.131	0.325	-0.7	3.6
Micah Owings	58	2%	35%	43%	17%	40%	-0.1	0.333	0.259	0.281	0.537	0.278	0.333	0.2	1.7
Darnell McDonald	111	5%	30%	47%	18%	35%	0.7	0.361	0.267	0.306	0.400	0.133	0.312	-1.8	1.2
Jerry Hairston	340	6%	15%	34%	24%	42%	-0.5	0.273	0.254	0.305	0.397	0.143	0.303	-8.1	0.9
Kevin Barker	36	9%	28%	54%	25%	21%	-0.1	0.375	0.281	0.333	0.375	0.094	0.292	-1.2	-0.2
Daniel Herrera	4	33%	50%	100%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.229	-0.4	-0.2
Arthur Rhodes	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Jared Burton	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Nick Masset	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Ramon Ramirez	1	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Carlos Fisher	1	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.3	-0.3
Ryan Hanigan	293	13%	12%	48%	24%	27%	-1.4	0.289	0.263	0.361	0.331	0.068	0.298	-8.2	-0.5
Matt Maloney	15	8%	42%	86%	14%	0%	0.1	0.429	0.250	0.308	0.250	0.000	0.262	-0.9	-0.5
Mike Lincoln	2	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0.0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.006	-0.6	-0.5
Edwin Encarnacion	165	15%	27%	41%	14%	46%	-2.8	0.250	0.209	0.333	0.374	0.165	0.295	-5.1	-0.7
Drew Sutton	76	10%	30%	37%	19%	44%	-0.6	0.289	0.212	0.297	0.348	0.136	0.280	-3.3	-1.3
Ramon Hernandez	331	10%	12%	49%	19%	32%	-3.1	0.274	0.258	0.336	0.362	0.104	0.295	-10.1	-1.3
Danny Richar	9	11%	13%	57%	14%	29%	-1.3	0.286	0.250	0.333	0.250	0.000	0.105	-1.8	-1.5
Kip Wells	16	0%	36%	67%	33%	0%	0.2	0.143	0.091	0.091	0.091	0.000	0.090	-3.3	-2.9
Corky Miller	69	14%	25%	28%	21%	51%	-0.5	0.214	0.179	0.299	0.250	0.071	0.247	-5.0	-3.2
Edinson Volquez	19	0%	50%	75%	13%	13%	0.0	0.125	0.063	0.063	0.063	0.000	0.050	-4.6	-4.1
Adam Rosales	266	10%	20%	45%	16%	40%	0.3	0.246	0.213	0.303	0.317	0.104	0.278	-12.0	-5.0
Justin Lehr	28	4%	36%	77%	8%	15%	-0.7	0.143	0.091	0.130	0.136	0.045	0.090	-5.9	-5.1
Craig Tatum	77	9%	15%	45%	12%	43%	0.1	0.175	0.162	0.250	0.221	0.059	0.213	-7.8	-5.8
Paul Janish	292	9%	16%	37%	19%	44%	0.7	0.247	0.211	0.296	0.305	0.094	0.271	-14.9	-7.2
Aaron Harang	54	2%	26%	74%	9%	18%	-1.4	0.176	0.149	0.167	0.234	0.085	0.141	-8.9	-7.5
Johnny Cueto	59	6%	37%	74%	4%	22%	0.2	0.207	0.130	0.184	0.130	0.000	0.151	-9.2	-7.6
Homer Bailey	43	0%	45%	75%	10%	15%	-0.1	0.143	0.079	0.079	0.079	0.000	0.062	-10.0	-8.9
Bronson Arroyo	76	0%	44%	35%	21%	45%	-0.3	0.200	0.113	0.113	0.161	0.048	0.108	-14.7	-12.7
Willy Taveras	437	4%	14%	47%	17%	36%	3.6	0.277	0.240	0.275	0.285	0.045	0.259	-26.9	-15.4
Alex Gonzalez	270	6%	15%	36%	18%	46%	-1.4	0.231	0.210	0.258	0.296	0.086	0.229	-23.7	-16.6

Table notes: Most stats were pulled or calculated from those at FanGraphs. Most should be self-explanatory. EqBRR is Dan Fox's baserunning stat from Baseball Prospectus. wOBA* is an all-encompassing offensive stat read on the same scale as OBP. It is based on wOBA listed at fangraphs, but then park adjusted and further adjusted to include EqBRR baserunning information. wRAA* is runs above average, based on wOBA*, and so is park adjusted and includes EqBRR. wRAR* is based on wRAA*, plus a 2.0 wins/700 PA modifier (the difference between an average hitter and a replacement hitter). wRAR* does not consider position--that includes pitchers! We will apply position adjustments when calculating win values in a subsequent post.

Joey Votto is the clear winner of the best offensive player award, despite missed time due to illness. The guy just had an incredible season. His 0.372 BABIP is a source of concern, however--that's almost certainly the result of some good luck, which will (at least) pull down his on-base stats. But he doesn't have to have an 0.372 to be a fine hitter. I'll happily take his CHONE projection in 2010 and every year thereafter...though, maybe with a few more PA's.

The often maligned (at least in the blogosphere) Brandon Phillips comes in as the second most valuable hitter, at least relative to replacement level. Yes, he's a free swinger, and yes, he's misplaced hitting 4th on a team. But he's proven to be an extremely durable, consistent hitter with good power and the ability to add to value with his baserunning game. He, along with Taveras, contributed the most on the basepaths this year (+3 runs overall).

Jonny Gomes comes in third, and I'm sure this is why so many are enthusiastic about re-signing him (despite his fielding problems). His 0.274 ISO was the highest of any hitter on the team, and second only to the incomparable Micah Owings.

But from here, we just drop off a cliff. I find it flat-out shocking that only three hitters crossed the 10 RAR plateau on this Reds team. In 2008, we had seven players top that plateau, with Jay Bruce essentially #8. There just wasn't much good hitting talent--or at least good hitting performance--on the team this year. In contrast, we had five hitters at least 5 runs below replacement level (Rosales, Tatum, Janish, Taveras, and Gonzalez; this is offense only). Now, some of that was made up for with glovework. But even so, this is a miserable offense. All I can say is thank goodness for Joey Votto. Can you imagine what this team would have been like without him?

A few other hitters of interest. I've read a lot of optimisim about Jay Bruce, with many pointing to his 0.221 BABIP as something that won't happen next season. I hope they're right, and I was glad to see the power there from him, but I worry about his line drive %. Those things can fluctuate, and Bruce is young and tremendously talented. But a bust-out season next year isn't guaranteed from where I sit......Micah Owings lived up to his reputation and had a terrific year at the plate for a pitcher, often serving as our top right-handed pinch hitter. And keep in mind the pinch hitting is measurably more difficult that hitting when you're already in the game, so Owings is probably better than he showed. He didn't walk much, and I wonder if that eventually will catch up to him as pitchers learn to exploit his weaknesses.....Drew Stubbs showed surprising power in his September call-up, but his on-base skills weren't as evident, walking only 8% of the time. There was some talk that he'd modified his swing upon arriving in the big leagues, but I haven't seen confirmation of that and I'm skeptical. Honestly, I think he just got lucky. I have very little idea of what he'll hit next season.....Juan "El Nino Destructor" Francisco hit the crap out of the ball in his 25 PA's, even walking at a nice clip. But 0.615 BABIPs tend to decline, and I have almost zero confidence that he's actually big league ready.....Lowest walk rate by anyone on the team with more than 100 PA's? Our leadoff hitter, Willy Taveras. I kind of miss Norris Hopper.....How bad was Ramon Hernandez? And manning 1B when Votto was out, no less! I argued last spring that a combination of Hernandez and Hanigan would be a massive upgrade on last year's catching. As the graph at the top of the page shows, however, it wasn't. Not that Tatum or Miller helped much on that front.

Next time (probably after the holidays): Fielding, and combining fielding value with offensive value to get position player win values!

Friday Five: Best Offensive Seasons by a Reds Pitcher

Slyde — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 15:24:08 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Owings home run off of Ryan Franklin to tie the game on Mother's Day was one of the biggest highlights of this past season. Too bad the Reds still lost the game.

Browse more photos »

I'm going to try to do something new to pass the time this off-season. Every Friday I will make a new top 5 list on a different topic. We'll see where it leads or if I'll stick to it. This week's list is the Top 5 offensive seasons by a Reds pitcher.

1. Joe Nuxhall - 1953 - 55 PA .327/.377/.551

For pitchers with at least 50 plate appearances, Joe Nuxhall has the highest single-season OPS+ in Reds history at 138. To put that in perspective, Jonny Gomes was second on the Reds last year with an OPS+ of 124. Votto led the team at 152. Nuxie was a pretty good hitter in his career, and this was the first of 3 straight seasons with 3 home runs for the Old Lefthander. This was also the only season where he batted over .300 for the year in his career.

2. Bill Phillips - 1902 - 124 PA .342/.385/.404

Sure it was a different game in 1902, but pitchers still weren't necessarily very good hitters even back then. Phillips only managed one other season in his career with an OPS+ over 75, but in this one he posted an OPS+ of 134, the highest for any Reds pitcher with at least 100 PA.

3. Bucky Walters - 1939 - 131 PA .325/.357/.433

A former infielder, Bucky Walters was a doubles machine. In 968 career PA as a pitcher with the Reds, he hit 42 doubles, 3 triples, and 8 HR. In 1939, he set the single season record for extra base hits by a Reds pitcher with 10. He's also tied with himself for second on that list with 9. Oh yeah, he went 27-11 with a 2.29 ERA in 1939, leading the league in wins, ERA, complete games (31!), innings (319), strikeouts, ERA+, and WHIP. Perhaps the best overall season ever by a Reds pitcher. I guess that's why he won the NL MVP that year.

4. Carl Mays - 1927 - 33 PA .406/.406/.594

Only one pitcher in Reds history has batted over .400 with at least 30 plate appearances. Oh, and he also slugged nearly .600. Small sample size or not, that's still pretty cool.

5. Micah Owings - 2009 - 58 PA .259/.281/.537

I picked Owings because I believe that it is much harder to be an offensive pitcher in today's game than it used to be. Unfortunately, we don't have league splits for any of the previous players listed here, but pitchers batted just .138/.179/.176 last season in the NL. I would guess that the numbers were slightly higher for the other players on this list. Also, it had been over 50 years since a Reds pitcher had slugged over .500 for a season, and it's only been done 3 times in Reds history by pitchers with at least 20 PA. That's impressive enough for me.

What do you think? Is this list properly ordered? Did I miss someone that sticks out for you?

That's a mistranslation of the Bible. Jesus actually wore a Carpenter jersey. Reds lose 13-0.

Brendanukkah — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 20:44:14 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Laugh it up, chucklehead. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

Browse more photos »

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Chris Carpenter. Not only did Carpenter pitch five innings of shutout ball, not only did he allow a mere three hits, not only did he strike out six, but he also went 2-3 with 6 RBI, including a grand slam. Albert who?!

Key Plays

Kip Wells pitched a scoreless first inning.
Chris Carpenter hit a grand slam in the second. That's about as key a play as there is. When you give up a home run to the pitcher, it's bad. When it's his first home run of his career, it's bad. When it's with the bases loaded, it's bad.
Kip Wells gave up five runs, Micah Owings gave up four runs, Carlos Fisher gave up three runs, and li'l Danny Ray Herrera only gave up the one.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

After some whinging by the Cardinals after their loss last night, a beanball fest seemed inevitable. Scott Rolen and Juan Francisco got plunked for the good guys, while Kip Wells hit Brendan Ryan, one of the few Cardinals not hitting Kip Wells.
The last Cardinals pitcher to hit a grand slam was Kent Mercker in 1998.
The Reds only had five hits, but Adam Rosales had two of them. Their only extra base hit came courtesy of Micah Owings.
El Nino Destructor has a .500 OBP. Sustainability, schmustainability, that's just fun!
Chris Carpenter is really good when it comes to facing the Reds. Entering this game, he had a 0.846 WHIP against them, the second lowest of any team he's faced more than once. And now, it's a little bit closer to the 0.838 he has against Tampa Bay.

In "The King & I," it's referred to as "The Small House of Carnal Pleasures of Uncle Thomas." Reds win, 4-2 in extras.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 22:45:29 -0000

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Micah Owings. Even though Micah cannot possibly be a starter [reasons for this pending], he stepped up with two shutout innings of relief, then got the win by being hit in the head to drive in the winning run. We hope that he's okay. Johnny Cueto also pitched six innings of one run ball and struck out nine. Drew Stubbs went 3-5 with a home run.

Key Plays

In the third inning of this pitcher's duel, Johnny Cueto led off with a single, followed by Drew Stubbs's single. Cueto came around to score on Darnell McDonald's single up the middle. With one run in, two runners on, no outs and the heart of the order coming up, the Reds looked poised to do some real damage. But Joey Votto struck out, Stubbs was caught stealing third, and Brandon Phillips grounded out.
Adam LaRoche's single in the fourth broke up Johnny Cueto's no-hitter, but he was immediately stranded.
Former Red David Ross helped level things with a one out walk in the fifth. Nate McLouth moved him to second one out later with a single, and Martin Prado doubled to bring him in.
After six stellar innings, Jared Burton came in to relieve Cueto. He immediately gave up a home run to David Ross, and a single to Kelly Johnson. Danny Ray Herrera came in and got a fly out from McLouth and a double play from Prado. Would this be the end of the Reds winning streak?
No! Drew Stubbs hit his fifth home run of his young season to tie the game with two outs in the eighth inning.
Bonus Baseball! Stubbs hit a triple in the eleventh inning, but was thrown out at the plate by Nate McLouth after he tried to score on McDonald's fly out.
In the twelfth inning, Votto drew a leadoff walk, and Scott Rolen moved him to third with a single. Wladimir Balentien also walked and the bases were loaded for Micah Owings. Kenshin Kawakami unloaded a pitch that hit Owings in the head. It was a scary moment, but the winning run came in. Corky Miller hit a sacrifice fly to bring in Rolen for an insurance run.
Not that it was needed. Francisco Cordero struck out the side for his 33rd save.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

After getting hit in the batting helmet, Owings walked off the field under his own power.
The Reds have won their seventh straight and 12 of 14. It's not surprising that this is happening without Willy Taveras and Alex Gonzalez, though it is surprising that Justin Lehr and Kip Wells have been important parts of this hot streak.
Tim Hudson retired the last 14 batters he faced.
The Reds are now only three games out of third place in the NL Central.
Drew Stubbs has five home runs in 87 plate appearances.
The Reds have swept three of their last four series.

Final - 9.6.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	R	H	E
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	4	7	1
Atlanta Braves	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	5	0
WP: Micah Owings (7 - 12) SV: Francisco Cordero (33) LP: Kenshin Kawakami (7 - 11)

Complete Coverage >

Game 137 Recap: Reds 4, Braves 2

gondeee — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 21:26:49 -0000

by John Amis - AP

Tim Hudson's terrific start was not enough for the Atlanta Braves and their suddenly dormant offense.

View full size photo »

If I had to pick a low point of the season for the Atlanta Braves, I would say this is just about it. I guess I should be happy that we scored as many runs today as we have in the past two games, but I'm not. It seems that no matter what the Braves do right now it's not going their way. They get the lead for Tim Hudson, who had a great outing, and then Mike Gonzalez gives it right back.

It was also the little things in the ballgame that became big things. Despite some good defense from around the infield, Nate McLouth looked like he had a chance to throw out the runner trying to score in the third (the runner was the pitcher), but instead he just tossed the ball into the infield. That run, any run right now, is a big run.

Kenshin Kawakami, coming out of the bullpen in the 11th, had a good first inning of work, but he loaded the bases in his second inning of work and ended up hitting Micah Owings in the head to push in the go-ahead run. Owings went down and stayed down for a while in a scary moment. A sac fly pushed the Reds lead to 2, and with shadows between the pitcher's mound and home plate in the bottom of the 12th, the Braves batters struck out 1-2-3 against Francisco Cordero's 97 mhp heat.

If there is a silver lining to this game, it's definitely the outstanding start by Tim Hudson. He looks as good as he did at any point last year, and that should give the Braves some good options going into the off-season -- like trading for a BIG BAT!!!

Final - 9.6.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	R
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	4
Atlanta Braves	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2

Complete Coverage >

Pirates Win Fourth Straight, 5-2

Charlie — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 02:07:58 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

Browse more photos »

When you compare the Bucs' active roster to the Reds', it's actually not unreasonable to think the Pirates might keep winning, especially against a starter like Micah Owings, who seems destined to be famed more for his hitting than his pitching. Garrett Jones contributed a homer to right that finally occurred with two men on; nearly all of Jones' previous homers had been solo shots, which I don't think is anything we should gnash our teeth over, but it's got to be nice for him to hit a three-run bomb for once. Also, Lastings Milledge hit his second homer as a Pirate, Andrew McCutchen had one of his patented fly-like-Superman triples, and Delwyn Young played pretty good defense at the keystone. Also, Charlie Morton came back to the surface after his disastrous last start and didn't get the bends. Nice game, and now the Pirates can jump to fifth place with a win tomorrow.

No disrespect to the '79 team, which will always have a place in my heart for being the Bucs' last championship squad and for winning the title in the very week I was born, but I've never liked pillbox hats, which make people's heads look funny. (See the Morton picture to your right, which I swear isn't photoshopped.) I'd gladly exchange some funny-looking heads for some more games like this, though.

One quick note: Evan Meek's season is over after moving to the 60-day DL to make room for Phil Dumatrait on the 40-man roster.

Farmers Only: Weekend Recap

BK — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 11:00:33 -0000

Roster Moves: As previously noted, Juan Francisco is in Louisville now, and Shaun Cumberland has rejoined the outfield mix in Carolina. Kris Negron has joined Sarasota, and Oscar Castro moves from Dayton to Billings, with Hector Santana taking his place. After sitting out for a lot of the year, Misael DeJesus is on the active roster in the GCL.
Louisville had a decent weekend, winning 2 out of 3 against Toledo. They won 4-0 on Friday behind a stellar pitching performance by Matt Klinker. Klinker went 7 1/3 innings of 2-hit ball, and struck out 9 while walking 3. Pedro Viola gave up only one hit in his 1 2/3 to close it out. Drew Stubbs was 2-for-5 with a RBI, and Eric Eymann and Chris Denove had two hits each as well. On Saturday, they won 4-1 behind a decent rehab start by Micah Owings. Micah went 5 2/3 innings of shutout ball, only giving up 3 hits and striking out 3, but issued 5 walks. That's a little concerning. Logan Ondrusek notched his 5th save. In the cleanup spot, El Nino Destructor was 2-for-4 with a double and a RBI in his AAA debug. Wes Bankston was 3-for-4 with a HR, and Corky Miller and Daniel Dorn had two hits each. The Bats lost the weekend-cap 7-2 as Sam LeCure had some trouble. Bankston and Dorn had 3 and 2 hits respectively (again), and Chris Valaika added two hits of his own. Up next: The Bats take on Indy at 7:05. No starter listed, but it should be Travis Wood.
Carolina took two of three from Birmingham over the weekend. On Friday, the Mudcats lost 11-6 behind another terrible outing by Zach Ward. He's started 3 games so far in Carolina and is the proud owner of a 23.14 ERA. That's not very good. Logan Parker drove in 3 runs in the game as well. Camilo Vazquez turned the table on Saturday night, leading the team to a 8-1 win. Vazquez pitched 5 1/3 innings of 1-run ball, and Joe Krebs pitched 2 2/3 no-hit innings of relief before Greg Atencio struck out the side in a perfect 9th. Stephen Chapman led the way with 3 hits for the offense, and Jake Kahaulelio and Korey Feiner drove in 2 runs each. They won on Sunday too, 4-3. Alexander Smit pitched 7 innings and gave up 2 runs. Up next: Luis Montano takes on Jacksonville at 7:05.
Sarasota had a mostly down weekend against Fort Myers. They won 3-1 Friday, lost 3-1 on Saturday, and dropped both games of a Sunday doubleheader 6-3 and 4-3. On Friday, Curtis Partch pitched 7 innings and only gave up 1 unearned run while striking out 6, and Mace Thurman pitched 2 scoreless innings for his 6th save of the year. Jason Louwsma was 2-for-3. Kris Negron was 0-for-3 in his Reds debut on Saturday, but Neftali Soto and Dave Sappelt each had two hits. Matt Fairel had a good start, going 6 innings of 1-run ball, but Josh Beal gave up 2 in the 9th to get the loss. Jeremy Horst earned his 12th loss in game 1 of the doubleheader, and Pedro Villarreal gave up 2 runs in 5 2/3 in the nightcap. Up next: Travis Webb takes on Jupiter at 7.
Dayton lost all three of their games over the weekend, and are now on a 5 game skid. They lost 9-7 to West Michigan on Friday, as Chase Ware got roughed up in his first start. Humberto Sosa and Tony Brown had two hits each and Byron Wiley homered. They lost 7-1 to Fort Wayne on Saturday, as Ezequiel Infante had his first bad start of the year. He gave up 5 runs in 4 innings. Carlos Mendez homered and Josh Fellhauer was 2-for-4. They lost 5-1 on Sunday despite a great start by Jordan Hotchkiss. Hotchkiss only gave up 1 hit in 5 innings, and struck out 6 while walking nobody. Up next: Dayton takes on Fort Wayne at 7:05.
Billings only played 1 game over the weekend, with the game on Saturday being rained out and the doubleheader Sunday being postponed due to wet grounds. The Mustangs lost 7-3 to Casper on Friday, mostly due to a bad outing by Tim Crabbe. The top 3 hitters in the order (Mariekson Gregorius, Yorman Rodriguez, and Yen-Wen Kuo) all had two hits. Up next: Blair Carson takes on Idaho Falls at 9:05.
The GCL Reds only played 1 game too, with their Sunday game being rained out and their off day on Saturday. They lost 6-3 on Friday. Misael DeJesus pitched a scoreless inning for the start, and Jefry Sierra was 3-for-4. Up next: They take on the GCL O's at noon.