SB Nation - Doug Davis

Life After Lackey Starts With Sheets

James Kannengieser — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 10:00:22 -0000

With three of the better free agent starting pitchers (John Lackey, Randy Wolf, Rich Harden) off the market, and Roy Halladay a Phillie, Met fans have unsurprisingly started in with the it's-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it talk. Best practice to avoid this nonsense is turning off WFAN. Actually, that's probably a good idea in general, unless you're tuning in for the unintentionally hilarious grunts of Mike Francesa. Make no mistake about it: there are plenty of other strong options for the 2010 rotation, available via free agency and trade. One name that the Mets would be wise to make a strong play for is Ben Sheets.

Sheets is the best of the crop of talented, injury prone pitchers which includes Erik Bedard and Justin Duchscherer. He missed all of 2009 because of flexor tendon surgery and has a history of other assorted ailments. When healthy, he's one of the best in the game. Hopefully the Mets' reported preliminary interest in Sheets turns into strong pursuit, and soon. The rare blend of strikeout ability and control he provides (career K/BB of 3.85) is preferable to the fielding dependent stylings of Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro, especially considering the iffy Mets infield defense and presence of Mike Pelfrey and Jonathon Niese.

According to ESPN, Sheets is reportedly looking for a deal in the neighborhood of $12 million a season. That seems a bit excessive but I would endorse a deal similar to Harden's with a small bump because Sheets is slightly better. Maybe a one year deal for $9 million with an option around $12 million? If signed, he could realistically be a 2.5-3 win pitcher, even in ~140 innings. It would be wise to limit him to 25 starts or so to ensure health as well. Pairing Sheets up with someone more reliable would be prudent, and some of the available pitchers worth looking at are as follows:

Aaron Harang - My top choice to pair with Sheets. He can probably be had for less than he's worth, has a strong strikeout rate and is an overall above average pitcher. Just don't let Jerry Manuel use him on two days rest for four innings of relief. The home run problem might be alleviated if he escapes Great American Ballpark.
Derek Lowe - The contract might become an albatross but if the Braves kick in some money he would be a decent addition. Similar skill set to Marquis and Pineiro, albeit more dependable.
John Smoltz - Calling a 42 year-old with injury problems reliable is a big stretch but if Sheets isn't signed "Schmoltz" (per Ron Darling) is worth a look. His peripherals and velocity were there in 2009 and despite his status as long-time Brave he is a personal favorite. Every pitch he throws looks like an angry haymaker thrown at the batter. I rarely say things like this, with good reason, but Smoltz is a competitor who just seems to want it more than anyone else on the field. His intensity would help satiate the masses and mainstream media who think the Mets are a bunch of spineless slugs.
Doug Davis - An under the radar type whose numbers might surprise. Yes, he gets hit hard but considering his age and lack of brand name he could be a nice bargain on a cheap one year deal to fill out the back of the rotation.

See robcast23's Big Book Of Available Pitchers post for more on Sheets and the pitchers listed above.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 15:30:33 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

Jeff Suppan reacts after walking in three runs during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Cubs. Searching for someone who will take his contract could be one of the Brewers' focal points this week.

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Some things to read while the blue socks tie your look together.

All eyes turn to Indianapolis this week, as the Winter Meetings start today. While there, Brewer management would most likely jump at any chance to unload the contract of Jeff Suppan. Tom H. floated the idea of a Suppan-for-Juan Pierre deal, while Jorge Says No! wonders if Jeff Suppan and prospects for Gil Meche makes sense (Also noted in Rumorville). For whatever it's worth, the Meche deal is probably unlikely unless one of the Brewers' top prospects is involved. Apparently the Mets have also contacted the Royals to ask about him.

Other pre-meeting buzz:

Tom H. has a winter meeting preview with some stuff you've heard before and a Doug Melvin complaint about cost uncertainty.
Steve Henson of Yahoo says the Brewers are more likely to look for free agents than trades to fill the gaps in their rotation and bench.
Adam McCalvy has a look at some of the prospects that could be mentioned if the Brewers decide to make a deal, but acknowledges the fact that the Brewers don't have the organizational depth to make a major splash via that route.
Apparently Edwin Jackson, one trade candidate the Brewers have expressed interest in, could find a new home soon.
Meanwhile, Yahoo is reporting that multiple teams are interested in Doug Davis, but the only candidate they're naming at this point is the Crew.

If you weren't around over the weekend, Noah did a great job in the weekend Mug of covering reaction to the Gregg Zaun deal. Here are a few more nuggets on Zaun I spotted this morning:

Adam McCalvy tweeted that Zaun's deal includes $600,000 in incentives tied to games started, which could push the total guaranteed value up to $2.75 million if Ken Macha is unwilling to let one of the young guys play.
Fire Doug Melvin is not excited about the decision to guarantee Zaun the starting job.

The Zaun move inspired Casa de Machado to throw in the towel for 2010, complete with this quote:

I think are chances in 2010 are slim to none.

It's like this picture and The Iron Sheik's Twitter all rolled in to one. (h/t to the Former Hacks for the Sheik link)

I know at least some of you attended the Brewer Clubhouse Sale over the weekend. Did you find anything good? Did you show up in this WISN story?

Just one transaction note today:

Indians: Signed former Twin Brian Buscher to a minor league deal.

Some free agent deals might get done at the Winter Meetings this week, but don't expect John Lackey to be one of them: Lackey is believed to be seeking $17 million+ per year for at least six years, and it'll take some time for his price to fall back into a range that isn't laughable.

Six years and $102 million would probably earn Lackey honorable mention on Big League Stew's list of the worst ten contracts of the 2000s. Click that link if you'd like to feel better about the Brewer tenure of Doug Melvin: All ten contracts mentioned are clearly worse than Jeff Suppan's deal.

Looking for a buy-low rotation candidate? Diamond Notes mentions the Dodgers are expected to have interest in Chien-Ming Wang, when/if the Yankees announce their decision to non-tender him for next season. Assuming the price is right, one would think the Brewers might be interested too.

Speaking of the Dodgers, they're continuing to cut costs by attempting to deal George Sherrill.

On this day in 2005, the Brewers traded Lyle Overbay (along with Ty Taubenheim) to the Blue Jays for David Bush, Gabe Gross and Zach Jackson, clearing the way for Prince Fielder to take over at first base in 2006. Overbay has hit .275/.356/.449 over four seasons as a Blue Jay.

On this day in 2007, the Brewers acquired Salomon Torres from the Pirates for two minor leaguers. Torres posted a 3.49 ERA and saved 28 games for the 2008 Brewers.

Happy birthday today to Jim Austin, who posted a 3.06 ERA while making 83 relief appearances as a Brewer between 1991 and 1993, and turns 46.

Oh, and it looks like winter is now upon us, so it may be time to bust out the solar powered hat and gloves. Or just stay home and watch the Pride and Prejudice with Zombies miniseries. (h/t C. Trent Rosecrans)

Drink up.

Free Agent Starting Pitching: BCB Weighs In

roguejim — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:51:33 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

I am Carl Pavano --- no one gave up more earned runs last year in all of baseball last year than I. But I command you to look only at my peripherals! Look at them! Yesss...stare longingly at my sweet sweet peripherals. Love them! (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

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It just occurred to me that the Winter Meetings are coming up fast, and we haven't told Doug Melvin which two free agent pitchers we wanted. (Frankly, that's probably how the Hardy/Gomez trade went down: we didn't specifically tell DM for whom Hardy should be traded, and he went rogue and made the trade himself.) Assuming we can't (and shouldn't!) get into a bidding war on the services of John Lackey, which two of the free agent pitchers listed below should we try to sign, and why? Be sure to consider salary when choosing.

(Note 1: I'm not including the likes of Mulder and Halama, as you can't sign them and assume they'll win a spot.)

(Note 2: I haven't seen much written about Kelvim Escobar, who hasn't had an ERA north of 4 since 2003. The Red Sox are asking about him, the Brewers should too.)

(Note 3: Shawn Hill is cheap, a sinkerballer, often injured, and one of the few ex-Expos out there not yet 30. A perfect flier for the Brewers.)

Here's the list:

Aroldis Chapman, LHP who throws 100 MPH, albeit erratically
Randy Wolf
Rich Harden
Erik Bedard
John Smoltz
Andy Pettitte
Joel Pineiro
Jarrod Washburn
Ben Sheets
Brad Penny
Justin Duchscherer
Pedro Martinez. Vote for Pedro!
Doug Davis
Jason Marquis
Jon Garland
Vicente Padilla
Carl Pavano
Braden Looper
Randy Johnson
Mike Hampton
Hisanori Takahashi
Paul Byrd
Ugh...I'll opt for choosing only one free agent and trading Gamel for the other

The 2009 'Pitties: The Cy Young Award

Jim McLennan — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 00:30:12 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

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Congratulation to Gerardo Parra, who romped away with the Rookie of the Year 'Pittie, with 68% of the overall vote. I'm a little surprised it was quite as wide a margin, because by objective measurements like WAR or VORP, Parra was a good deal less credible a candidate than Juan Gutierrez. For instance, by WAR, Gutierrez came in at 1.5 wins, while Parra was all the way down at 0.3 wins. That puts him behind Rusty Ryal (0.6) and Zavada (0.4) and only fractionally ahead of Trent Oeltjen (0.2). However, by the time this was mentioned to me, Parra already had what was basically an unsurmountable lead.

To be honest, I've got a feeling this penultimate award is going to prove even more one-sided - and in this case, I don't think there will likely be much argument from the sabermetric community. Frankly, a chunk of me is tempted to toss up the obvious nomination and then go back to gnawing on honey-baked ham [which is basically what I'll have been doing for the past 24 hours or so] . However, that would be an abdication of my responsibilities. And, perhaps more important, merely typing the words "honey-baked ham" made me feel slightly nauseous. So, after the jump, we'll go through the five names on the ballot. And remember, it's an honor simply to be nominated...

Doug Davis: 203.1 IP, 4.12 ERA

After three seasons of DD, we're used to it by now. He's up to sixth on the all-time franchise list for innings pitched, and hit 200 IP for the first time in Arizona. His WHIP of 1.505 was also the lowest it has been with the Diamondbacks, despite Davis leading the league in walks (103). However, Davis was then insanely good with men on base, posting a line of .215/.310/.321. Davis certainly deserved a better record: in the past fifteen seasons, only four qualifying NL pitchers have had a W-L% below .400 and a better ERA+ than Doug's 111 [Brandon Webb's 2004 leads that list]. If this was his last hurrah in Arizona, he can leave with his head held high.

Dan Haren: 229.1 IP, 3.14 ERA

Haren posted his fifth straight 200-inning season in 2009, one of only four pitchers with such a streak (alongside Vasquez, Buerhle and Arroyo). Dan was also the best pitcher in the National League over the first-half of the season, with a 2.01 ERA, and a K:BB ratio better than 8:1. He had 18 quality starts in his first 19 outings, including seven straight where he went 7+ innings and allowed two or less runs - there hasn't been a longer streak in the NL since 2001. While Haren cooled off after the break, he still set career highs for IP, K and ERA+ and came within one measly hit of becoming the first NL starter in four years to have a WHIP below one.

Chad Qualls: 52 IP, 3.63 ERA

In his first year as full-time closer, Qualls ended the season with 24 saves in 29 opportunities, good for sixth on the franchise all-time list. He'd likely have finished third, except he blew out his knee and missed the last month, following the pitch which secured his final save. That came as a pity, because he'd posted a 2.90 ERA over July and August. Qualls showed excellent control, walking just seven batters all year (he had almost as many double-plays: five), while fanning 45 hitters. 69% of all his pitches were strikes, and pitching in Chase didn't bother Chad at all: his ERA here was 2.63, with opponents held to a .657 OPS.

Max Scherzer: 170.1 IP, 4.12 ERA

Questions about Scherzer's stamina coming into 2009 were largely answered: the 25-year old threw over three thousand pitches, ranking him between Cole Hamels and Zach Duke, and gradually stretched out, to the point where he averaged 6.60 IP/start in September, a career high. He also ranked 13th in the league for strikes, at 65%, ahead of Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. Scherzer had a 2.16 ERA in June, which included his best outing, 7.2 shutout innings against the Giants. Not helped by his defense - the 16 unearned runs allowed was an NL high - Scherzer simply did it himself, fanning more than a batter per inning.

Clay Zavada: 51 IP, 3.35 ERA

Left-handed relief has often been a problem for Arizona, but Zavada's ERA+ of 136 was the best by such a player for us since 2000 (min 40 IP). Zavada set a franchise rookie record of nineteen consecutive appearances without allowing an earned run, which was also the best streak ever to start a career in the NL. Curiously, he was particularly brutal on right-handers, holding them to a .205 average, and faced 98 batters before allowing a home-run in the majors, during Zavada's 25th outing. His off-field contributions were perhaps as important: he energized the bullpen, the dugout and the fan-base like no-one else on the 2009 roster.

Poll

Who takes home the 2009 Cy Young 'Pittie award?

Doug Davis

3 votes

Dan Haren

147 votes

Chad Qualls

4 votes

Max Scherzer

7 votes

Clay Zavada

9 votes

170 votes | Poll has closed

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:25:35 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

The Braves would love to unload Derek Lowe's contract, but don't sound all that interested in taking on Corey Hart in exchange.

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Some things to read while moving Christmas dinner.

When something shows up in two separate sections of the site, it's usually best to assume it's true, so the fact that there are posts about it in Rumorville and the FanShots must mean there's some truth to the rumor that the Brewers and Braves have discussed a trade that would send Corey Hart to the Braves for Derek Lowe. However, Mark Bowman of MLB.com says the Braves aren't interested in Hart, which makes two of us. Meanwhile, Jorge Says No! reiterated a trade idea they mentioned a while back: Hart for Kenshin Kawakami.

As of 12:01 this morning, the market is officially open for free agents to negotiate with other teams. Tom H. has an overview of the market, with the Brewers tied to the usual names: John Lackey, Doug Davis, Jarrod Washburn. Randy Wolf's name was also mentioned.

The Pinstriper has predictions for all of this offseason's Type A and B free agents, and thinks the Brewers will sign Doug Davis and re-sign Jason Kendall. Meanwhile, they have Mike Cameron, Braden Looper, Felipe Lopez and David Weathers signing with the Padres, Astros, Dodgers and Pirates, respectively.

While the BBWAA has left the Brewers out in their voting for most of their major awards, one pitcher still collected an award from another source: Manny Parra won Joe Posnanski's NL Les Sweetland Award for being the NL's worst pitcher in 2009, while Jason Kendall narrowly missed winning the NL LVP.

At least in this scenario, Kendall wouldn't be back: Wisconsin Sports Tap thinks the Brewers should step into the future and give Jonathan Lucroy the catching job in 2010. I've covered why I think it's a bad idea.

Two Brewer staffers, manager in the Brewers' media relations department John Steinmiller and manager of marketing promotions Caitlin Moyer have started a blog to keep fans updated on what's going on at Miller Park during the offseason, and they have a post on some planned renovations in and around the park, as well as the renaming of some parking lots (h/t Adam McCalvy). Miller Park Drunk took a look at the new parking lot map and wonders how Paul Molitor ended up getting the faraway lot.

As noted in today's Fall/Winter League Update, Alcides Escobar had a pretty good night in Venezuela last night, going 4-for-4 with a solo home run. If you're looking for more about it and happen to speak Spanish, here's a game story from ElImpulso.com.

For many Brewer fans, it's been a long few decades of waiting for the Crew to put a winning team back on the field, but we've held strong. A Girl's View of the Brewers tells the story of her Brewer fanhood.

Around the league:

Cubs: Re-signed John Grabow to a one year deal worth $3.75 million.
D-Backs: Acquired Aaron Heilman from the Cubs for a pair of minor leaguers.
Royals: Signed pitcher Brad Thompson to a minor league deal.

I know I mentioned it earlier this week, but I'm going to mention Lookout Landing's Faces series again because today's installment features former Brewer first round pick Dave Krynzel.

The deadline has passed for players to be added to 40-man rosters to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft, so we can start looking at players who might be available. One such player is former Brewer farmhand Cole Gillespie, left unprotected by the D-Backs. Gillespie hit very well in AAA for the D-Backs after being acquired as part of the Felipe Lopez deal, and will probably get a shot to make a team as a fourth outfielder next spring.

We spend a lot of time discussing minutiae during the offseason and most of it doesn't amount to much in the end, but this is why we do it: Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com has a look at players who have gone from minor league free agent to big league contributor. It doesn't happen often, but it is possible to strike gold.

Miller Park Drunk is starting a season-by-season review of the decade that was for the Brewers, but you're forgiven if you're not too excited about reliving the 2000 season. It's about as exciting as Ryan Braun modeling more Remetee stuff.

Does a change up lose its effectiveness when a batter sees it multiple times? That's the question Max Marchi of The Hardball Times is taking on, by looking at batters who see multiple change ups, both in the same AB and over multiple ABs, and the pitchers who throw them.

On this day in 1969, the Seattle Pilots fired Joe Schultz, the first manager in franchise history, after just one season. Dave Bristol took over and managed the club for their first three seasons in Milwaukee.

Also, on this day in 1989, Robin Yount won his second American League MVP Award, this one as a center fielder. Yount received just eight of the 27 available first place votes but edged out Ruben Sierra by 28 points.

I couldn't find a Brewer birthday again today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a happy birthday to Rick Monday, who turns 64. Thanks in advance to FtJ, who will likely point out a birthday I missed in the comments.

And finally, a programming note: I'm leaving in a few hours to go deer hunting for a few days. I'll still be writing the Mug next week, but I'm moving Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday's Mugs to the afternoon so I can still hunt in the mornings. I'll be back with a regular Mug a week from today.

Drink up.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:28:20 -0000

by Tony Gutierrez - AP

John Lackey is not a future Brewer.

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Some things to read while cleaning your spit valve.

The Rookie of the Year awards will be announced in a few hours, but Casey McGehee isn't sitting by his phone waiting for a call. He seems to understand that he's a long shot at best for the award. He finished eighth in the SBN balloting for the award.

I keep expecting to hear an announcement, but instead we have more reports that their might be an announcement someday: Doug Melvin has been in contact with Gregg Clifton, who represents Mark Mulder, about signing a deal to attempt to resurrect his career. The Brewers still seem like the most likely candidate to sign him, but it's not done yet.

Melvin has also been in touch with Tigers' GM Dave Dombrowski about the possibility of acquiring Edwin Jackson, but said the Tigers are "in charge of that one," and "they'll identify which clubs are matches and they'll call them." Clearly, Melvin is hard at work on this one.

Over the weekend, I put together a hypothetical deal that would put Jackson and Curtis Granderson in Milwaukee and Casey McGehee and Carlos Gomez in Detroit. Roughly 31% of voters think I'm an idiot for suggesting it, but by virtue of making an offer I might be one step ahead of the front office. By the way, at least one AL Exec doesn't think the Tigers are looking to move Granderson. Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times suggested a Gamel-for-Jackson swap, but said the Tigers would need to add more to their side.

Elsewhere on the hot stove:

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic thinks the Brewers will end up with Rich Harden. (h/t Baseball Musings) Rumors about Harden seem to be coming from everywhere but the front office.
MLB Daily Dish thinks the Brewers will sign Doug Davis, and Mike Cameron will sign with the Cubs.
Walkoff Walk wants to know why Cameron isn't drawing more attention from pundits this offseason.
The Brewers may have competition for Jarrod Washburn: Aaron Gleeman notes that the Twins have expressed interest.
Still think the Brewers will make a run at John Lackey this offseason? Then here's some disheartening news: Lackey turned down $72 million from the Angels, which is almost certainly more than the Brewers would consider (or should consider) offering him.

In the wake of the recent decision to decline Braden Looper's option for 2010, Rob Neyer painted a picture of the Brewers' situation that's mostly gloom and doom. Similarly, Fire Doug Melvin wonders if the Brewers have missed their window.

Meanwhile, Adam Thompson of the Sheboygan Press thinks the Brewers have already made themselves better this offseason. That's as good a reason as any to stop paying attention to Adam Thompson of the Sheboygan Press.

I'd like the Brewers to improve the team a little more before I even start thinking about it, but when you're ready to start looking ahead to 2010, CHONE projections are out.

How'd you spend your weekend? Doesn't matter. Ryan Braun one-upped you by spending his weekend at actress Jessica Lowndes' birthday party. Oh, and Seth McClung spent his promoting a charity basketball tournament.

Only one transaction to report today, but it might be significant to some:

Rays: Signed R.J. Swindle to a minor league deal.

In a somewhat surprising move, former Brewer Marquis Grissom is parting ways with the Nationals. 2009 was Grissom's first season as first base coach for the Nats. As of a few weeks ago, he was giving quotes about being excited about coming back, so I'm not sure what happened.

If you're looking to learn more about Sabermetrics today and have some time to kill, Intro to Sabermetrics 101 has a primer on Linear Weights.

Or, if you're looking to help refine a new stat, In-Between Hops is working on a replacement for the Quality Start. Not surprisingly, 51 pitchers ranked ahead of the first Brewer in his new stat in 2009.

No Brewer birthdays today, but happy belated birthday to 2009 Timber Rattler Efrain Nieves, who turned 20 yesterday.

A quick programming note: I'm out for at least the rest of the day today, as I'm headed back to the dentist to see if we can't figure out some complications related to having my wisdom teeth removed a week ago. Depending on what I find out today, I'd say I'm probably questionable for tomorrow: I'm still in enough pain today that it's difficult to focus. Let this be a lesson to you, young readers: If your wisdom teeth don't hurt, leave them alone. I've been significantly more miserable for the last week than I ever was before I had them removed.

Drink up.

Weekend Mug 11/15

Fatter than Joey — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 06:50:01 -0000

by Pat Sullivan - AP

This dude hates Spaghettio's, and hates that you love them.

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Hello Kids!

I see your Regular Dad has dropped you off at your Weekend Dad's doorstep. Apparently Mr. Fancypants has better things to do, than keeping you kids up to date about the Milwaukee Brewers this weekend. I have no idea what happened to your Regular Dad, one can only guess... in any case, let me turn off the Carmen Electra workout tape, put on some fresh sweatpants, open up a can of Spaghettio's and tell you all about the Brewers.

One thing my therapist encourages me to do every morning, is to google Ned Yost, and then reassure myself that Ned Yost, or his evil offspring, Ned Yost IV, can no longer hurt me. I thought it was interesting that this quote from Ned Yost, was produced by the google engine.

The Atlanta Braves were in last place for years and years before I got there.

The fact that Yost didn't make the finalist stage, and that the Astros eventually hired Brad Mills, is probably evidence that someone in Houston can muster up enough brain activity to fog a mirror, contrary to previous reports of a flatlining front office.

Doug Melvin showed his own mirror fogging prowess by declining the option on Brewer souvenir generator Braden Looper. The Brewers will have to pay Looper $1M for the opportunity to decline his option, however they will save $5.5M in salary for 2010, and probably another $400K in lost baseballs. Looper is a type B free agent now, and while the Brewers could offer Looper arbitration, it is unlikely, since Looper stands to make as much money in the arbitration process as his declined option would have provided.

Bleacher Report thinks Melvin did the right thing in declining Looper's option, however argues that unless the Brewers dump Jeff Suppan, the Brewers will still suck at pitching.
Along the same lines, Rob Neyer snips TH, and rips Looper, and wonders why Melvin just can't DFA Bush, Parra and Suppan. (TH story)
FireDougMelvin.com reminds us, that while we put new Hefty bags on the windows on our double-wide by releasing Looper, we are still living in the trailer park.
Quick! Name the only 4 pitchers in the history of MLB that were able to give up 39 or more homeruns in under 200 IP. (Answer: Jose Lima 48/196.1; Eric Milton 40/186.1; Shawn Boskie 40/189.1; Braden Looper 39/194.2)
Quote from Braden Looper:

"I tried the best I can to get the ball down because that's my whole game"

In other Brewer News:

The Brewers passed on RyDo to get CarGo.
Former Brewer draftpick Andrew Bailey, went from TJ surgery to potential ROY winner
Is Edwin Jackson a good fit? Is he worth a Mat Gamel?
I did not know Ken Macha was 1st cousins with Hal Newhouser, I am guessing through marriage.
Deputy Braun is opening a grill, and scored his 2nd Silver Slugger award
Ben Sheets is awaiting offers from all 30 MLB teams.
Mark Mulder and Doug Melvin are talking
Seth McClung was interviewed about Twittering, and is generous with his High School.
Eric Gagne wants to pitch in MLB again... as a starter... he developed a cutter, which apparently is helping his batted balls adhere to the laws of physics.
What's dumber than signing Doug Davis? Answer: Getting into a bidding war for Doug Davis

In other MLB news:

Jack Wilson signed a 2 year deal with the Mariners. The Fielding Bible says Wilson is the best fielding SS in MLB. The Home & Garden Bible says Wilson is an above replacement yard gnome.
RJ Swindle signed a minor league deal with the Rays.
Justin Huber has a weekend dad in Japan
Carl Crawford is pissed beyond belief
Rafael Betancourt needs a new Regular Dad

Your Regular Dad is always making you take quizzes, where you have to do math, and are required to spell names correctly. What is wrong with him? -- Weekend Daddy just wants you to match up these Weekend Grannies with the crimes they committed, isn't that more fun?

This is generally the place in the Mug where Regular Dad generally wishes some (but usually not all) former Brewers a Happy Birthday. Instead of doing that, why don't we join the greatest Brewer of all-time, Sixto Lezcano, in wishing young Jimmy Salladay a happy birthday.

A gathering of Angels appeared above my head
They sang to me this song of hope and this is what they said:
Weekend Dad is greater than Regular Dad

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:09:52 -0000

by Kathy Willens - AP

John Lackey still probably won't be a Brewer, but that didn't keep his agent from having a beer with Doug Melvin.

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Some things to read while reserving a campsite near the half-pipe.

Yes, this morning's Mug is late again - my apologies. Here's a quick microcosm of what this week has been like for me: At one point while gathering links this morning, I woke up at my desk, holding the dog. I have no idea how long I was asleep. I don't remember picking up the dog. Let's see what I found to write about:

Apparently the list of people who stopped by for a Molson while Doug Melvin was at the GM meetings also includes Steve Hilliard, who represents John Lackey. It's hard to tell if it was a serious conversation or just an effort to "check in," but one can safely say the Brewers have expressed interest.

Here's a stat that's not very encouraging: Fungoes has a graph ranking free agent pitchers by the difference between their FIP and ERA, which is largely attributed to their team's defensive ability and/or luck. Randy Wolf, Doug Davis, Jon Garland and John Lackey were among the six luckiest. You know what else they all have in common? The Brewers are rumored to have shown interest in them.

Technically, we're still in the "exclusive negotiation period" of free agency, where teams are not allowed to negotiate contracts with other teams' free agents. With that said, the OC Register has a deeper look at those rules, and they're pretty loose. For example, a conversation like this one, reconstructed in yesterday's Mug comments by TheJay, TSSC and Yar Nivek, could probably happen:

I don't think you can offer specific amounts, but you can say, "Hey, it just so happens we need someone at your position [wink wink]" and hear back, "I don’t want to play for Mudville [glare glare]."

"You know, the other day, I was so hungry I thought I could eat 20 MILLION HAMBURGERS an HOUR for 4 HOURS. That's 80 MILLION HAMBURGERS."

"I’m looking for my friend BILL. Have you seen any BILLS around here?"

The Brewers have until sometime tomorrow to make a decision on Braden Looper for next season. They can either agree to pay him $6.5 million to return, or pay him $1 million to leave. After having conversation with the agents of at least four free agent pitchers, Doug Melvin probably has a pretty good idea of what the market will look like this offseason, and I wouldn't be surprised if a decision is announced today.

Jonathan Lucroy continues to draw positive reviews in the Arizona Fall League (FanShot), but another possibility has popped up for next season's catching vacancy, as Indians catcher Kelly Shoppach showed up in Rumorville yesterday. I've got a big post on catchers scheduled for later today: stop by around noon to check it out.

Here's a rather odd situation: Ben Sheets, who presumably has some interest in marketing himself to teams this offseason, is nowhere to be found, and at least one pundit is wondering if he may not come back after all. No one has heard from Sheets since his agent said he was throwing off flat ground several weeks ago. Jack Moore of FanGraphs says not to forget about him, though.

If you're feeling nostalgic and don't have anything else going on tomorrow, MLB Network is replaying Sheets' classic 2004 performance, when he struck out eighteen Braves in arguably the best outing of his career.

Larry Stone of The Seattle Times has the full list of arbitration eligible major leaguers for this offseason, so we can once and for all confirm that Carlos Gomez is on it. He qualifies as a Super Two this offseason by two days.

Beyond the Box Score has several visual aids ranking the free agent second basemen this offseason, and of the three graphs, Felipe Lopez leads two (WAR and wOBA), and Craig Counsell leads the other (UZR). Baseball Beat ranked Lopez as the fourth best free agent second baseman. They also rank Mike Cameron as the best center fielder, and Counsell as the fourth best shortstop.

Ryan Braun became just the third Brewer ever and the first since Paul Molitor in the 80s to take home back-to-back Silver Slugger Awards. Prince Fielder and Braun have combined to win the award three times in the last three seasons: Before that, the Brewers had only won one (Carlos Lee in 2005) since 1990.

There's a bunch of stuff in the minors today:

As Dan Walsh mentioned in yesterday's Mug comments, there's a rumor floating around that disappointing prospect Brent Brewer is considering quitting baseball to play college football. Brewer is reportedly planning a recruiting visit to Oklahoma State in the near future. Joshua Kusnick, who represents Brewer, said the report is just a rumor.
Brewer ranked fourth in Wisconsin Sports Tap's look at shortstop prospects in the organization. A 2006 draft pick, Brewer was ranked behind Josh Prince and Scooter Gennett. Both are 2009 draft picks, and Gennett has yet to make his pro debut.
Speaking of shortstops, Alcides Escobar was the shortstop on Topps' AAA All Star Team.
As the AFL season winds down, the Brewer who has gained the most in Arizona is almost certainly Zach Braddock, who has an ERA below 1 and hasn't allowed a hit in his last five innings of work. Braddock also shows up among the leaders in a couple of PitchF/x categories: getting called strikes and getting batters to swing and miss.
The Timber Rattlers have moved on to second base in the voting for their 15th Anniversary Team. Click here to read more about the nominees, including 2009 Rattler Brett Lawrie.
Baseball Intellect gave me a sneak peek behind their pay wall this week so I could take a look at some video and a nice scouting report on the delivery of Eric Arnett. They have a few paragraphs with some notes on Arnett's mechanics and velocity, along with a condensed video showing dozens of pitches from one of Arnett's recent outings. They also have a similar report on Jake Odorizzi. They're brief scouting reports and videos, but if you'd like to see these guys pitch for yourself, there are worse ways to spend $3.

I only have one transaction to note today:

Royals: Signed infielder Wilson Betemit to a minor league deal.

As I mentioned before, I've got a lot more on catchers later today, but here's a link to consider before then: Circling the Bases has a preview of the free agent market for backstops. With the exception of Bengie Molina, every catcher on the market is projected to make the same or less as what Jason Kendall made last season.

The Hardball Times has a look at the successes of the high, inside fastball. There's a lot of graphs, stats and considerations in there, but it seems like they're missing a bigger point: If a pitcher has the control to consistently throw a fastball over ANY corner of the strike zone, they're going to be successful.

I've heard others complain about this, and yesterday it happened to me: After checking the results on yesterday's Thinker, I blew an hour at Sporcle taking other quizzes. My favorites from the last 24 hours:

Name all the members of the NCAA FBS. (I got 107)
Name the conference of these D-I basketball teams. (I had somewhere in the mid-20's.)
This one is Mental Floss, not Sporcle, but name the 16 teams to appear in the most Final Fours. (I had 11.)

Mark Kiefer

Julie Scelfo of The New York Times

Amy K. Nelson

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:47:13 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

Randy Wolf is seeking a multi-year deal, just like he was last year.

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Some things to read while going extra casual.

Remember yesterday, when the Mug was late because I had so much to write about? Today's Mug is nothing like that. Adjust your schedules accordingly.

It sounds like Doug Melvin has been active at the GM meetings: Adam McCalvy noted that he's spoken to the agents for Randy Wolf and Doug Davis, and is expected to also speak to Scott Boras, who represents Jarrod Washburn. Al may have summed it up best:

If you have an arm and an agent, odds are Doug has talked to them at the GM meetings.

Arn Tellem, who represents Randy Wolf, told the Brewers his client is seeking a multi-year deal. The Brewers, in turn, told Tellem not to expect $5 million for Jason Kendall. Neither of those are really shocking developments: Wolf was also seeking a multi-year deal last offseason before the market evaporated and he was forced to settle for less, and Kendall hasn't been worth $5 million for several years now.

Meanwhile, FanHuddle wonders if the Brewers are building for 2011, not 2010, with the coming season being spent as development/evaluation time for players like Carlos Gomez, Alcides Escobar and Jonathan Lucroy.

Speaking of Gomez: Fire Doug Melvin has some fan fiction that might explain the decision to acquire him.

Today's "Around Baseball" segment has been reserved for senior citizens:

Mariners: Signed Ken Griffey Jr. (who turns 40 in November) to a one year deal for 2010. The deal is worth $2 million plus incentives.
Red Sox: Signed Tim Wakefield (who is 43) to a two year deal worth $5 million.

Looking for more info on the Arizona Fall League? John Sickels of Minor League Ball just returned from a trip out to the desert and is answering your questions today.

Meanwhile, there might be trouble brewing in Venezuela: the threat of violence and war is once again coming up in the country, and the Mets are considering calling home one of their top prospects in the Venezuelan Winter League. Meanwhile, Adam Heether still hasn't been seen in a game since November 1...

The Gold Gloves were announced yesterday, and I checked to see if any Brewers were honored, then tuned the rest out. Over at The Book Blog, Tangotiger has a press release on the irrelevance of the awards.

Looks like money is getting tight for the Dodger organization, trapped in the middle of the McCourt divorce. As Cute Sports noted, they recently cut the salary of 87-year-old amateur scout George Genovese to $8000. We've had discussions in the comments before about the "plight" of scouts and how it's not always as bad as it sounds, but this is ridiculous.

Speaking of financial issues, I mentioned yesterday that the Reds are looking to cut payroll this offseason and, as Tyler Hissey of Dugout Central notes, that makes last season's decision to trade for Scott Rolen even more puzzling. Rolen is due to make $11 million this season.

While most players are spending their offseason in various warm places getting ready for 2010, I still think Ross Ohlendorf is having the most interesting offseason of all, and now he's blogging about his work with the US Department of Agriculture (h/t Jen Langosch).

Need a Trenni fix this offseason? She's the guest in the most recent Phillies Nation Podcast.

On this day in 2007, Ryan Braun was named the NL Rookie of the Year. Braun has posted a .937 OPS in his first three major league seasons: Among players with at least 1500 PAs as a Brewer only Braun, Prince Fielder (.931) and Richie Sexson (.902) are over .900.

I couldn't find any Brewer birthdays today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a posthumous happy birthday today to Moonlight Graham of "Field of Dreams" fame, who would have turned 132.

Drink up.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug - Straight out of the Tap

Lange — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:00:52 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

(AP Photo/Morry Gash) Remember when this happened? It was great, seriously.

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Something to read while considering skin treatments.

Another day, another fill-in. Who am I you ask? Why Mark Lange of course, but that's probably not enough. First off, I am an unemployed sports reporter (no joke, I was even on television for a while; it may have been Duluth, MN, but still, it was legit). Second, and more importantly, I am the main contributor on Wisconsin Sports Tap. We're admittedly Brewer-centric, but we do our best to cover the Badgers, Packers and to a far lesser extent, the Bucks.

In fact, wouldn't it be convenient if we happened to have two fantastic Crew stories up right now? Well we do! If you followed us on Twitter you'd already know that though (@WI_SportsTap, or me personally: @MillerParkNorth). But in the meantime, here's what we have going:

My fellow founding contributor looks at the Brewers chances of bringing John Lackey into the fold for 2010.

And I continue ranking the Crew's positional prospects, today the third basemen.

Here are Five Predictions for the Brewers in this Hot Stove League.

5. Have a Catch(er)? Angel Salome isn't ready for the major leagues and the team is down on him anyways. So if the team were to have a prospect make the jump, it would have to be Jon Lucroy. And why not? The conservative approach the team has taken with prospects has always been a point of frustration with Brewer Nation, a prospect hasn't been rushed to the big leagues since Ryan Braun. If the team likes Lucroy as much as they seem to, bypassing Triple-A might not be a bad idea. If that's the case bringing back Mike Rivera would make the most sense, he's accustomed to a backup role and knows the team's returning pitchers well. Also this would save a good chunk of money by not bringing back Jason Kendall. But who am I kidding, Kendall and his .240 average will be back.

4. Jarrod's not coming. After the disaster of a contract that GM Doug Melvin gave to Jeff Suppan, don't expect him to pony up four more years for a lefty who will be 35 before the end of next season. Not to mention the fact that Washburn struggled and was hurt after being traded to Detroit last year. In the first three years of his contract with the Mariners he had ERAs of 4.67, 4.32 and 4.69. Why would you go after him when a comparable pitcher might be had for less money and less years? Who is that pitcher? I'm glad you asked...

3. Welcome back Double-D! That's right, Doug Davis. If you're going to sign a 34 year old left-hander why not bring in a guy you have a previous relationship with, is open to a return, and likely can be had for less years and less money (word is Davis is looking for a three-year deal and may be willing to go to a two-year offer). Davis may walk more batters than Washburn, but he's otherwise a similar pitcher. Also he had the misfortune to play home games in Chase Field, a notorious hitters park while Washburn played in the cavernous Safeco Field where he struggled for three of four years.

2. Mat Gamel will Stay. I'm sure the team would love to add a young arm, and Gamel might bring that. But with a wave of young, talented pitchers approaching Double-A and Triple-A Milwaukee would be wise to keep Gamel in house. He is the type of high-ceiling prospect the team will need in the event that Prince Fielder can't be signed long term. Plus the struggle of prospect Taylor Green in Double-A and the Arizona Fall League make you question his big league ability. Until you know for sure what Casey McGehee brings to the table trading Gamel would be a mistake.

1. John Lackey will be a Brewer in 2010. Or he might not, it's really hard to say. If middle market teams are doing most of the bidding than the Brewers will have a very good chance of signing Lackey. If teams like the Yankees, Red Sox or Phillies decide to get involved his cost will be too much for Milwaukee to bring him to the team. With big money off the books this year and next, the team will make a very competitive offer.

I'm generally not one to deliver a load of links to my readers, but here's what I'm reading.

Miller Park Drunk and Al's Ramblings had a nice back and forth about the Carlos Gomez acquisition. Anybody else remember when Gomez was the selling point in the Twins trade of Johan Santana?

The Free Agent Rankings are out, and the Brewers have five Type B players, Bernie's Crew has a good Breakdown.

Craig Counsell and David Weathers have officially filed for free agency.

Around the Central, Todd Wellemeyer, Kevin Gregg and Jose Valverde have all filed as well.

And in the downer category, Jon Heyman thinks the Yanks will be interested in John Lackey.

In fact SI.com has a good look at this offseason and the riskiest free agents in it. Rich Harden riskier than Ben Sheets? At least Harden pitched last year.

One more thing, since J.J. Hardy has finally been traded this is a good time to re-hash this old gem.

Drink up, it's all local brews on the Tap.