SB Nation - Brandon Webb

The 2009 Off Season's Impact On The Future

ltrain2 — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:04:42 -0000

by Elise Amendola - AP

Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein, right, and manager Terry Francona are concerned with much more than just the matters related to 2010's team.

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The Red Sox, beleaguered by talks of a 'bridge period' earlier this off season, caught fans slightly by surprise with their recent flurry of activity within the MLB's Hot Stove Market. Marco Scutaro's arrival in Boston may not have warranted much commotion given the nature of his contract (the length in particular), but the lucrative 5-year deal awarded to pitcher John Lackey has some questioning the exact direction that general manager Theo Epstein is taking the club and the future of pitcher Josh Beckett in particular.

After a very quiet beginning to the Winter Meetings, the Red Sox designated nearly $25 million for next season's payroll with the additions of Mike Cameron and John Lackey alone, moves that will certainly effect those that subsequently follow -- both this season as well as the next.

What does this mean for the likes of Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez, both with expiring contracts, especially considering the addition of Lackey and the potential free-agency of catcher Joe Mauer? With over $50 million in expiring contracts coming off the books following this season, how will management approach the free-agent class of 2010, considered by many to be one of the deepest of its kind in relation to available impact players? If this season is still considered a bridge to the future, then what can fans expect to see from the front office at this time next year?

At the moment, Boston's payroll is hovering around the $170 million dollar mark for the 2010 season (which includes the money owed to former shortstop Julio Lugo). The following players are in the final year of their current contracts; David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, and Julio Lugo -- contracts that total $55 million. Assuming that Boston doesn't restructure any of the deals involving the aforementioned players, that gives management a large sum of financial freedom to address the incoming class of free-agents, a group that boasts talent trumping that which is offered in this year's crop.

Many have likened the situation to that which resulted in the Red Sox's 2007 World Series Championship. Prior to that season Epstein spent nearly $210 million ($209.1 to be exact) in acquiring J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo, and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Again, with the assumption that none of the following players are awarded new deals during the upcoming season, here's a look at the free-agent class of 2010: Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Lance Berkman, Cliff Lee, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Carlos Pena, Brandon Webb, Jayson Werth. It's a safe bet that someone like Jeter will be retained by the Yankees, but even that scenario leaves a slew of All-Star caliber talent available for the taking.

Similar to last season when the Yankees cleared themselves of nearly $70 million in contractual commitments that led to the signings of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira, and ultimately a World Series Championship, Boston will find themselves in a very enviable position heading into next year's Hot Stove action.

It's a safe bet that Boston decides to let the contracts of Varitek and Lowell expire, but what about Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez?

After the signing of John Lackey, Theo Epstein immediately sent a text message assuring Josh Beckett that the addition of Lackey will in no way effect Boston's interest in re-signing him. However, we've seen this before, and nobody can blame Beckett for remaining skeptical regardless of how convincing Epstein may have appeared. After acquiring Curt Schilling in 2003, management sent a similar message to then staff-ace Pedro Martinez, who also found himself entering a contract year at that time. Martinez was not a member of the Red Sox in 2005 as management was never able to work out a deal to retain the right-hander, leading many to question Beckett's future in Boston. John Lackey received a 5-year deal worth $82.5 million dollars this off-season, raising speculation as to how serious the team is about keeping Beckett. It's hard to ignore the likenesses between Lackey and Beckett as pitchers, and with Lackey receiving a contract similar to that which Beckett is expected to command; did Boston simply sign Lackey to replace Beckett upon his departure? The situation is eerily similar to that which led to the end of the 'Pedro era' in Boston.

Victor Martinez is considered a very valuable commodity amongst the Red Sox's lineup. Martinez's ability to play both catcher and first base at a high level makes him just that much more appealing to the Red Sox, who currently owe him just under $8 million this season, making him widely considered one of the best bargains in baseball. However, there has been a lot of discussion recently surrounding the potential trading of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox by the San Diego Padres. If that happens, how will it effect the way in which Boston approaches Martinez's expiring contract? With the versatile slugger likely to command big money in the open market, will Theo then shift his focus to Joe Mauer, assuming that he isn't re-signed by Minnesota this season? With Gonzalez coming to Boston in this scenario, Martinez's ability to play first base becomes less relevant in relation to addressing the team's need for a catcher. It's no secret that Theo loves the type of player that Mauer embodies, and with good reason, as Mauer is regarded as one of the best all-around talents in baseball. Martinez is an ample catcher, but Mauer is a great one. Couple that with the upgrade that Mauer would represent offensively as opposed to V-Mart and it's not a stretch to assume that the Red Sox would rather utilize a good sum of that newly available $55 million on the former MVP/All-Star/Batting Champion/Gold Glover [Mauer].

On the other hand, it's worth mentioning that there has been some speculation that the Red Sox may plan to invest in both Martinez and Mauer, shifting Victor to first base and affording them a more than acceptable option behind the plate on days that they would decide to rest Mauer. Obviously this scenario becomes more likely in the event that Adrian Gonzalez is not acquired via trade.

Another key element that makes Martinez less of a necessity is the availability of Lance Berkman and Carlos Pena next off season, both viable options to fill the void at first base in the event that Boston is unable to retain Martinez. Similarly, Beckett's contract demands may become less appealing given the pending free-agent status' of pitchers Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb and the newly acquired Lackey.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz may also find their time in Boston heavily influenced by the free-agent class of 2010 and the moves made to this point in 2009. Both players have been mentioned in discussions surrounding potential trade scenarios involving Adrian Gonzalez. Does Ellsbury become more expendable with Werth and Crawford being available next season, as well as the recent signing of Mike Cameron? Does Buchholz become easier to part with given the potential signing of Aroldis Chapman and the potential free-agency of both Lee and Webb?

Every move that management makes from here on out must be calculated and will be heavily dependent on other deals that are or are not completed. For instance -- the addition of Lackey aside, even the situation at the catcher position effects the likelihood that starting pitcher Josh Beckett remains with the Red Sox.

Joe Mauer is believed to be in line to receive one of largest contracts in baseball history from whomever he decides to sign with. Therefore, if Martinez opts to explore free-agency and Boston decides to make a push for Mauer, it becomes less likely that they do so successfully while still being able to afford Beckett. Again, John Lackey's signing plays a major role in this as well. It's easier to let Beckett go and pursue Mauer with Lackey locked up for five seasons, and harder to justify retaining Beckett with the same thing in mind.

Going full-circle, it's easier to let Martinez walk with the addition of Gonzalez. In the event that Gonzalez is acquired, it becomes more feasible that Boston goes after Mauer, letting Martinez go and possibly making a concerted effort to retain Beckett.

It is still my belief that the Red Sox are pushing hard to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. In a previous article listed here, I explain that the Red Sox's moves to this point lead me to believe that Gonzalez is the most important player currently on Boston's radar. For one, signing Aroldis Chapman could help justify trading a young pitcher like Buchholz. Also, given the Red Sox's payroll commitments for 2010 and their still-glaring need to acquire a power-hitting corner infielder, the friendly nature of Gonzalez's contract for the next two seasons makes him the most appealing option for Boston if they truly desire an impact player to fill that void while still remaining within the $170 million dollar payroll goal set by Epstein.

However, the Gonzalez trade would be a blockbuster-type deal and is anything but a certainty. In the event that no progress is made in relation to Gonzalez, I think that Boston will shift their attention away from Beckett for the time being and make Victor Martinez their primary focus this season in terms of restructuring any of the expiring contracts. Talks with Martinez will likely correspond with the progress made by Minnesota in retaining Mauer. If it appears that Mauer will re-sign, Martinez should become priority number one in Boston. In the event that Mauer and the Twins cannot find common ground, the Red Sox will assess how badly they want to pursue Mauer, whether it be via trade or during the 2010 off season.

The point being that the signing of John Lackey, as well as any move made from this point on, does more than impact the future of Josh Beckett and the outlook of next year's club. Each move shifts the potential makeup of the roster for years to come. The job of a general manager is one of the most stress-inducing positions in sports for a reason and is not for short-sighted individuals. You can bet that Theo Epstein and the rest of the front office are making every move during the course of this off season with the next one in the back of their minds.

Poll

Who will most likely be a member of the Boston Red Sox in 2011?

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

Discussion: Marlon Byrd vs. Mike Cameron

Al — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 14:49:09 -0000

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Yesterday, I posted an idea regarding a potential free agent signing for a Cubs bench position in 2010. Admittedly, this wasn't the most important possible addition to the roster for next year -- however, the Cubs had a very poor bench in 2009 and I still think Chad Tracy (at the right price) would be a good addition.

Today, I'm going to analyze two players who have been mentioned as possible center fielders for the Cubs in 2010. Again, for the purposes of this exercise, assume that Milton Bradley has already been traded somewhere and not for another outfielder; that Kosuke Fukudome will be returned to right field, and that the Tigers' Curtis Granderson (who would be my first choice) is either not made available for trade by Detroit or has been dealt somewhere else.

So, let's look at two other choices -- Marlon Byrd and Mike Cameron.

Marlon Byrd has played eight seasons in the major leagues with three teams (the Phillies, the Nationals and the Rangers). He was the Phillies' regular center fielder in 2003, his rookie season; he played well enough to finish fourth in Rookie of the Year voting (behind Dontrelle Willis, Scott Podsednik and Brandon Webb). Declining quickly in his second year, he found himself dumped to the Nats, and signed with the Rangers as a free agent after the 2006 season. He never got full-time playing time again until last year, when he put up a very good .283/.329/.479 year with a career-high 20 HR and 89 RBI, numbers he hadn't come close to previously. His .808 OPS was in the same general area as his other two part-time seasons in Texas; overall he hit .295/.352/.468 (.820 OPS) in his three years as a Ranger.

Further, he seems to have been helped by Rangers Ballpark -- he posted an OPS over 100 points higher at home in each of his three seasons in Texas, although his career OPS is also higher at home (.810) than on the road (.716).

Byrd is 32. He will be 33 in August. His 2009 season appears to be an outlier in terms of power (his 43 doubles tied for 8th in the AL) and these are just the types of numbers that Jim Hendry often gets sucked into giving a three-year backloaded contract to. I'd stay away from Byrd.

With Mike Cameron, you know exactly what you're getting. He will be 37 in January, and over the 11 seasons since he became a fulltime regular in 1999 (not counting the two years prior to that when he had fewer than 500 PA for the White Sox), his OPS has ranged from .759 to .837. He's averaged 22 HR, 75 RBI, 66 walks and 143 strikeouts over those 11 seasons -- and his 2009 season was pretty close to that (24 HR, 70 RBI, 75 BB, 156 K).

At 37, he might have to be rested from time to time and for that, the Cubs have Sam Fuld. In a lineup that has Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and (presumably) a healthy and 2008-style Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto, Cameron could hit sixth or seventh, as he did in Milwaukee, and produce the same way he did there. In 138 career PA at Wrigley Field, Cameron has hit .261/.355/.521 with 8 HR, and hits .257/.349/.454 in day games.

At 37 -- well, you wouldn't want to give a longterm deal to a guy like that. But a one-year contract with a mutual option for a second year based on incentives -- I'd do that. Cameron is also familiar to Lou Piniella, who managed him for three years in Seattle -- two of those years the Mariners went to the postseason.

Mike Cameron isn't my first choice; as I wrote last week, that would be Curtis Granderson. But -- if Granderson isn't available, Cameron would be a good second pick.

Tim Lincecum Wins Second Consecutive NL Cy Young

GameFish — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:41:05 -0000

Tim Lincecum had fewer first-place votes than Adam Wainwright, fewer second-place votes than Chris Carpenter, and fewer victories than any pitcher to win the award in a non-strike season. But none of that stopped him from being awarded the Cy Young by the Baseball Writers Association of America for the second consecutive year:

Lincecum repeated as the National League Cy Young Award winner, besting St. Louis right-handers Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright despite getting fewer first-place selections than Wainwright in the vote conducted by the Baseball Writers' Association of America and announced on Thursday.
Lincecum (15-7, 2.48 ERA, 261 strikeouts) received 11 first-place votes and 100 points. Carpenter (17-4, 2.24 ERA, 144 strikeouts) finished second with nine first-place votes and 94 points, followed by Wainwright (19-8, 2.63 ERA, 212 strikeouts), who had 12 first-place votes and 90 points.

Carpenter also had more second-place votes -- 14 to 12 -- than Lincecum, who became the pitcher with the lowest victory total to win a Cy Young in either league. The previous low win total for a Cy Young winner was 16, by Zack Greinke of the Royals earlier this week and Brandon Webb of the D-backs in 2006. Both of those pitchers went 16-8.

Whatever the opposite of a landslide is, that's the margin with which Lincecum won the award, in what was one of the closest races in Cy Young history. But regardless, just two full seasons into his Major League career, Tim Lincecum has two Cy Youngs under his belt. He's got to be feeling pretty high (in the perfectly legal sense of the word, of course).

This week in AZ baseball: Webb returns, the 2010 roster takes shape, and an AFL Gameday Thread

Jim McLennan — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 23:30:28 -0000

Didn't bother doing one of these last weekend, as there really wasn't enough to justify it. Not the case at all today, with a lot of contract news following the end of the World Series, and as a result we can see the first signs of the roster for next season taking place. Or, at least, cross some names off the potential candidates' list, anyway. Today is also the Arizona Fall League All-Star game out in Surprise, with first pitch at 6:15 pm. It's going to be televised, both on the MLB Network and free at mlb.com, so this post will also be the Gameday Thread for that event.

Details of that, analysis of the roster moves, an update on the latest numbers by Diamondbacks in winter ball and more, after the jump.

While no surprise, the big news is, of course, that Brandon Webb will be pitching for the Diamondbacks in 2010, after the team exercised their option. Everyone concerned seemed upbeat at the news, our ace saying, "I was hoping that they would. I was just waiting for the phone call. It was up in the air for a while and rightfully so, it was a big question mark for a while, but I've bounced back really well and am feeling good and I'm happy I'll be back next year." His agent - and one-time SnakePit poster! - Jonathan Maurer added, "We've said from Day 1 that Brandon is very happy with the Diamondbacks and our preference was to remain in Arizona. We would love to work out something long term, but we will just take this year and see how it plays out." Webb concurs: "Hopefully it goes well for both of us and we can maybe start some talks, if everything goes well, toward the end of next year."

Three months after the surgery in early August, Webb will be doing a little gentle soft-toss next week to end his season, before then closing things down and eventually beginning his usual build-up towards spring training and, all going well, Opening Day. He sounded fairly confident he'll be the same pitcher he was: "Even when I was throwing and I was still having some pain, the life on the ball was still there. I can't be too sure, but I'm pretty sure I'll always probably have that sinking action, because that's just how my arm action is, it allows the ball to do that." I certainly hope so: Webb without his sinker...why, that'd be like Lincecum without a pipe in his mouth.

Brandon may be coming back, but there are a lot of Diamondbacks who apparently won't be - though again, none of the news on that front was massively unexpected. On the pitching front, Doug Davis and Scott Schoeneweis filed for free-agency, while Daniel Cabrera declined his assignment to Reno and became a free agent too. Yusmeiro Petit was taken from Arizona on waivers by the Mariners - likely a better location for the fly-ball prone Petit Unit., and our colleague on Lookout Landing are quite excited. The trio accounted for almost one-third of our starts last season (34 for Davis, 17 for Petit, one for Cabrera), and means the competition for the fifth spot next year is currently down to Billy Buckner, Bryan Augenstein and Kevin Mulvey, with the first-named the favorite at this point. Doug Slaten was also picked up off waivers, by Washington.

On the position player front, we say a poignant farewell to Chad Tracy, whose 2010 option was bought out by the Diamondbacks. Only two players - Luis Gonzales and Steve Finley - have played more games in an Arizona jersey than Chad, who appeared 704 times for Arizona over six seasons. His career line with the team was decent, at .280/.339/.453, for a .792 OPS, but since returning from knee surgery, his output has slumped. Chad's numbers against left-handed pitching were particularly poor, helping to make the decision to decline his $7m option relatively easy. Also possibly on the way out are Alex Romero and Trent Oeltjen, moves intended to relieve the impending crush in the 2010 outfield.

Good article in the Republic today on how the economic downturn is hitting all valley sports teams, not just the Diamondbacks. "Every professional sports team in metro Phoenix, along with Arizona State University's football team and the annual Fiesta Bowl, has had trouble selling tickets this year... Teams have been forced to try promotions once considered unthinkable as the drop in attendance cuts deeper into revenue and costs jobs.." Said Jerry Colangelo: "I have been here over 40 years, and this is the worst it has ever been." Other points of interest with regard to the local franchises:

The Suns streak of home sellouts ended this month and the team just laid off about 10% of employees.
The Coyotes have the lowest average crowd in the NHL, attracting just 5,855 for Monday's game. [There's also an article on whether Phoenix might be better served by minor-league hockey]
The NFC champion Cardinals have needed an extension for all but one of their home games, to avoid them being blacked out on TV.

Time for an update on our winter league ball-players, starting with Conor Jackson in the Dominican. If he's still not showing much power - one home-run in fourteen games - he's still getting on base with impressive frequency: he has an OBP of .523, thanks in part to a K:BB ratio of 14:9. Conor's batting .364 and has stolen six bases in six attempts. Alex Romero and Trent Oeltjen are also hitting above .350 in Venezuela and Mexico, but since they are potenially going to be ex-Diamondbacks in the near future, I'm not going to look too hard there. The potential 2010 right-side of our infield continues to struggle: Tony Abreu has a .640 OPS in the Dominican, while Brandon Allen is hitting only .162 in the traditionally-hitter friendly AFL. Allen's 19 walks do lead the league, however.

On the pitching front, Tom Layne is the only one of the four in the AFL making a good impression. He has allowed two earned runs in 9.1 innings of work, on seven hits and four walks, with ten strikeouts. Bryan Augenstein has pitched the same number of innings, but allowed fifteen hits, leading to seven earned rusn. That's still better than Cesar Valdez, who has wobbled his way to an 11.25 ERA in eight innings. Intriguing line from the Dominican, where Jordan Norberto has nine strikeouts in five innings: while he's allowed five runs, only one has been earned. Scott Patterson has been working well in Venezuela: in 5.1 innings, he has given up three hits and a walk, with six K's.

Speaking of the AFL, today is the Rising Stars game at Surprise, where 50 of the best and brightest major-league baseball has to offer will go head to head. The only Diamondback taking part will be Allen, but it'll be almost your last chance to see live baseball from inside the United States until next March, so I fully intend to take advantage. As mentioned, the game is on both the MLB Network, and streaming for free at mlb.com, so there's no excuse not to be watching this one - and commenting in this thread. [I'll be here, just a little late, as we've got to have dinner first]

The scheduled starting pitchers are both 2009 frst-round draft picks - Desert Dogs right-hander Stephen Strasburg was #1 and Atlanta left-hander Mike Minor was #7. Be my first chance to see the much-vaunted Strasburg in action. Per Red Reign in the comments, looks like Strasburg has been scratched from the game with a strained neck. Probably injured it lugging his bonus to the bank.

Finally, Clay Zavada had his number, #35, retired by Illinois Valley Community College on Thursday. He pitched there in 2003 and 2004, and is the first alumni of the institution to reach the majors in its 85-year history. Around 200 replica handlebar mustaches were handed out for the ceremony, at half-time in a basketball game at the college in Oglesby. "It couldn’t happen to a better kid," said IVCC athletic director Tommy Canale. "He’s really had some tough tribulations in his life and he fought through that." Hear, hear.

Saturday Rockpile: Options are all a guy really wants

theoldgrizzlybear — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 15:50:33 -0000

Rockies decline options on Torrealba, Embree | All Things Rockies
No surprises here, as both players have filed for free agency. Yorvit Torrealba could return to the Rockies for less money, but there's also a decent chance that he will find more money elsewhere. Meanwhile, Alan Embree could catch on somewhere with a minor league deal, but probably won't command much more than that. But, what do I know?

Eleven Option Decisions Made Today: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com
Option decisions of note that were made yesterday (in addition to the ones mentioned above: The White Sox declined Jermaine Dye's $12MM option, while the Phillies and D-Backs picked up their options on Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb. There are sitll a whole slew of options remaining.

Texas Rangers Blog | Sports News | News from Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News
Evan Grant takes a close look at the Rockies' offensive numbers with Clint Hurdle as their hitting coach.

Report: San Francisco Giants ace Tim Lincecum has deal to settle drug charge - ESPN
Tim Lincecum will likely pay a $250 fine for possessing a marijuana pipe. Apparently, the charge for possessing the actual marijuana will be dismissed. According to a Clark County prosecutor, the situation with Lincecum doesn't differ from that of any first-time offender for something of this matter.

Phillies, Diamondbacks pick up options on aces

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:12:47 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

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The Phillies and Diamondbacks made similar moves today, exercising the options on pitchers Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb, respectively.

Phillies pitcher Cliff Lee's 9 million dollar club option was a no-brainer, especially after his performance in the postseason. Lee ended the season with a 14-13 record, but posted a 3.22 ERA and 181 strike outs. He made 12 starts with the Phillies after the acquisition, and those numbers are shown below:

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Cliff Lee	7-4	12	12	3	1	0	0	79.2	80	35	30	7	10	74	3.39	1.13

Lee was 4-0 in five postseason starts, striking out 33 while walking just 6. However, Lee pitched in 272 innings this past season, nearly fifty more innings than he did last season when he won the Cy Young, mind you.

The Phillies are expected to approach Cliff Lee about an extension this offseason, but may be forced to wait till after next season. Lee, 31, shouldn't command more than a three or four year extension.

After weeks of deliberation, the Diamondbacks picked up Brandon Webb's 8.5 million dollar club option. Webb, who made one start this season before being shutdown, owns a career 3.27 ERA.

The 30-year old ace is no guarantee to stay in Arizona beyond the 2010 season. While he makes his residence in Arizona, the Diamondbacks have really failed to build on their 2007 success, and have quickly fallen back to the bottom half of the NL West.

If Webb isn't interested in signing an extension, the Diamondbacks would be smart to move him for a boatload of prospects. With Dan Haren and Max Scherzer, moving Webb for future help may be the next best thing if an extension doesn't work out.

Poll

Who is more likely to sign an extension with their current team?

Brandon Webb

10 votes

Cliff Lee

114 votes

They will both sign

32 votes

They will both walk

14 votes

170 votes | Poll has closed

Diamondbacks Pick Up 2010 Option on Brandon Webb

snakecharmer — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:53:36 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Webb will return to the mound at Chase Field in 2010 as a Diamondback.

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As predicted by 5 out of 5 Snake Pit moderators, the Diamondbacks have indeed picked up Brandon Webb's option for the 2010 season! This comes via the FoxSportsArizona twitter feed, and should be confirmed by an actual story soon. [Update: Now confirmed on the AP wire, which adds, "General manager Josh Byrnes says Webb has recovered well from an Aug. 4 arthroscopic surgery on his pitching shoulder."]

Brandon Webb missed nearly all of the 2009 season due to shoulder injury and surgery, making this decision a tough one for the front office. He is due to make $8.5 million next season, the final year of his contract. The Diamondbacks could have bought him out for $2 million, and had until 5 days after the World Series to decide.

Welcome back, Webb!!

Just a quick note or two to add - I'll talk more about it in tomorrow's weekly recap. I liked Nick Piecoro's way of describing it: "The worst-case scenario of exercising it was way better than the worst-case scenario of declining it. Same with the best-case scenario. They might not feel 100 percent confident that he’ll return to form, but it’s a risk that’s worth taking." And speaking of risk, here's a quote from Josh Byrnes that expands a bit on the team's reasoning

There's risk in everything. With the last three months I think some of the risk has been reduced because the surgery went well and Webby's really responded well. I think there's a lot of reward. I mean, you're talking about one of the best pitchers in baseball, so as we made that decision, in our mind, the reward was greater than the risk

Brandon Webb: Should he stay or should he go?

Jim McLennan — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 04:53:10 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Brandon Webb: the 2010 season depends on you. No pressure...

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The end of the World Series - about which, the less said the better - means that Arizona now have five days to decide whether or not to exercise their option on Brandon Webb for 2010. It's a choice that, depending on how he pitches, could define the entire season - we saw how much the rotation struggled to replace him this year, with the Diamondbacks dropping to their worst record since 2004. On the other hand, with a below-average payroll, the team can hardly afford to take on another bust of a contract.

I asked the team here at the Pit to write about the choice that will shortly have to be made by Josh Byrnes and his front-office staff. They had no requirement on length or position, and the only requirement was that they write their piece independently, to avoid the potential of influencing each other. After the jump, you'll find all the posts I received in response - obviously, there's going to be some overlap of points, but I think these just emphasize the importance of these angles.

Jim McLennan
The timing of Webb's injury could hardly have been worse for the Diamondbacks. One year earlier, he'd simply still have been under contract; one year later, and he'd be a free agent, and probably someone else's problem. But the decision is now strictly the team's, and they are faced with a pig in a poke. [I hope this phrase isn't uniquely British!] The franchise has to decide whether or not to pay $8.5 million to someone who has hardly thrown a meaningful pitch in thirteen months. There's not even any solid rehab work on which to go: even though the surgery happened three months ago, and went well by all accounts, he is still some way from any kind of mound work.

To be honest, I am probably more concerned that surgeons didn't find anything significantly wrong with his shoulder when they opened it up. Sure, they tidied up a little in there, tucked in the loose ends. But that could be like making the bed to get rid of a bad smell in your bedroom - it won't help if your dog has crapped in the closet. I'd probably have been happier if they'd found a parasitic pitching goblin, gnawing on Webb's labrum. At least we'd then know what the problem was. Instead, there's a nagging fear that the real issue is unresolved.

Balancing that, is the fact that Webb's option will "really" only cost the team $6 million, because even if we choose not to exercise it, we still need to pay him a $2 million buyout [a hefty sum, though until this year, the odds of the buyout being exercise were slim indeed]. One imagines Webb would not mind that at all, since he would likely command more than $6.5m as an unrestricted free-agent. It would present him and his agent with an interesting dilemma. Take a one-year contract, hope he stays healthy and go for the big bucks in 2011? Or get a longer, guaranteed contract to provide security if his arm breaks down again?

From the team's perspective, however, the buyout does make the decision easier, since they are on the hook for $2m either way. The difference between Webb and no-Webb, in terms of available payroll to sign a replacement, is somewhat less than we paid for Jon Garland: a starter coming off a down season, at a time of economic turmoil. That's really what it comes down to: if the team thinks Webb will be at or above league-average in 2010, then the cost is more than reasonable. While there is clearly a significant chance that won't happen, there's also a chance (about the same, I'd say) he'll be the Webb of old, giving us a 1-2 punch anyone in the NL will envy. As ever, the reality will likely be somewhere in the middle, but I think the odds are that Webb will be better than anyone else we can get for the same cash. Exercise the option: YES

Zephon
In my opinion, picking up Webb's option is an easy decision. Yes there is the chance that he doesn't throw a single pitch next year, or that he doesn't pitch as well as he did before, but I think we're better off rolling the dice on Webb's option. I'd hate to see him go to some other team, and pitch as well as he did before, and blow our chance at resigning him to a long term contract. 8.5m is a bargain for even a league average innings eater, let alone a possible Cy Young caliber pitcher. Picking up Webb's option gives the team good PR with possible free agents, and makes our team a more attractive place to play. In addition, declining Webb's option would result in a lot of negative PR with the local media and fans. Webb is one of the most popular and well known Diamondback. He's a home grown Cy Young award winner. Why not take the chance with him? Pick up the option, see how he pitches next year, and either revisit a contract extension if we're in the pennant race, or trade him for prospects if we're out of it.

PROS

If Brandon Webb comes back and pitches at least at a league average level, the option is a no brainer. In this market, league average or better starting pitching at 8.5 million is a bargain.
If Webb returns to his previous CY young-worthy form, the option is even more of a bargain.
We'll be hard pressed to find another starter via FA who can put up Webb type numbers for 8.5m or less.
If we pick up the option, and Webb comes back at league average or better, there's a good chance he'll sign an extension. If we don't pick up the option, there's zero chance of that happening.
Without a healthy Webb or equivalent starting pitcher, there's really no chance of us making the post season. With a healthy Haren, Webb, Sherzer, Buckner + FA starting pitcher, we have one of the better rotations in the league IMHO.
Picking up Webb's option makes us more attractive to those injured free agents out there. A Harden, Sheets, Et Cetera will find Arizona a more attractive place to pitch if they see us treating our injured starting pitchers well.
There's also the PR hit we'd take if don't pick up his option. Picking up Webb's option shows the public that the team is dedicated to keeping it's players, and that we're dedicated to winning.

CONS

There's always the chance that Webb doesn't throw a single pitch in 2010, or he pitches at replacement level. If that happens, we'd have been better off finding a replacement via free agency.
There's also the chance that, even though Webb comes back and recovers, that he re-injures his shoulder, and is out the rest of the year.
If he doesn't throw a pitch, or is injured the majority of next year, we're out 8.5 million, which could have spent on another starting pitcher, a reliever, or a first or second basemen.

Exercise the option: YES

soco
I want to be the dissenting vote, but given the free agent market this year I can't bring myself to do it. It would be nice for the Diamondbacks to have another $10 million to spend this offseason, but if last year was any indication, it won't much matter and Webb will have at the very least a good year somewhere else. Imagine if he gets picked up by the Dodgers. Even if he goes far away from the division, there's no guaranteed that the Diamondbacks will be able to pull off a deal that brings in a Type A offensive weapon, and that's assuming the Diamondbacks even go that direction. If Webb is let go then that's also another slot in the rotation that needs to be filled, soit effectively becomes a salary swap with someone who most likely will be well below Webb's talent. The Diamondbacks cannot afford to backslide on the rotation. Exercise the option: YES

kishi
First off, let's look at who we're talking about. Brandon Webb. We all know the basics- Cy Young winner, went to three straight All Star Games, threw 42 consecutive scoreless innings in '07- for years, Webb has been one of the brightest beacons of success on this team, and we've had him at a bargain price. Now, that changed last season when he went had one bad outing to start the season, and then went down with injury. But let's just take a second to consider what he did before that. Here's a number for you: 143. That's Webb's ERA+ from his debut in 2003 to the end of 2008. When looking at that pitchers with 900+ innings during that stretch, Webb is only second to Johan Santana by ERA+. Santana, notably, is the same age as Webb and made just under $19 million last year. In fact, the rest of the guys in the top ten, save Ben Sheets who didn't play, averaged about $15 million last season. Webb, in comparison, has made about $20 million in his seven years in the majors. Webb has been a bargain.

Okay, yes, I know, the question isn't "How good was Webb" but rather "How good will he be?" Answer? I don't know. All I know about labrum injuries, I learned from Dr. Jim McLennan of the Arizona Snakepit Medical Center, so I can't tell you anything someone else knows better. But for the money we'd be giving him, $6.5 million, what could we get? Well, let's look at last season- what did that money buy you on the free agent market? $5.5 million gave you Braden Looper, career ERA+ of 103. $5 million could get you Randy Wolf, who had his own surgery for a frayed labrum. Spend a little more money, and you see someone like Jon Garland. I don't know about you, but I'm willing to wager (someone else's money) that Webb's going to be as good or better than what we expected out of Garland. Do I think he'll be the ace we saw in 2008, giving us great pitching and 22 wins? No. But do I think he'll still put up some good numbers and give us our money's worth? Yes.

Spend the money- bring back Webb. Exercise the option: YES

snakecharmer (belatedly)
My thoughts on Webb's option fluctuated over the course of the season. In Spring Training, I honestly wasn't sure. I was reading lots of different thoughts - yes, we need the starter, no, he's not worth it - and I didn't really know one way or the other. After Webb's injury and subsequent problems coming back from it, I became very worried that the front office would choose not to pick up. Then came the trade deadline, and gone was Jon Garland, and NOT in exchange for a pitcher. I honestly think that the trading of Jon Garland, the struggles of all the replacement starters, and the subsequent chatter of Doug Davis being somewhat unhappy and wanting to look elsewhere for financial support makes it a much easier choice that the Diamondbacks choose to spend (net) $8.5 million to keep a definite #2/1-type starter around for another year. Exercise the option: YES

Conclusion
Fortunately, it seems the front-office are likely to be on the same page as everyone here, with the rumors tending strongly towards Webb's option being exercised. There's no doubt, everyone accepts it is a roll of the die with regard to his recovery, and if it doesn't work out, then 2010 could be just as disappointing as 2009 in the desert. But there aren't many, if any, potentially better starters going to be available to Arizona for the money this winter, and the upside, if he's anywhere close to 2005-2008 form, is obvious.

Fantasy Baseball: It's Time For You to Love Ubaldo Jimenez

Ian, yo — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 01:24:56 -0000

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If there's one starting pitcher I'm comfortable reaching for in next year's drafts, that guy is Ubaldo Jimenez. People hear/see Ubaldo's name and probably think...Coors...hitter's park...walks a lot of guys...I see Ubaldo Jimenez and I see a number two fantasy starter with number one upside and a K/9 that'll likely be in the 7-8 range with a whip of around 1.20.

Jimenez's FIP suggested he was slightly better than his actual ERA and I fully expect that ERA to drop even more as he progresses in the major leagues. Ubaldo won't necessarily become a 2.80 ERA guy, but he could give you 200+ innings with an ERA hovering in the low 3.00.

Getting into the deeper stats for Ubaldo show nothing but good things. If he continues the stats he's had over the last two years, we'll see a GB% in the top ten in starters for the major leagues at above 50% and an average fastball of 96 MPH. Not only does he throw the hardest fastball on average (for starters) but he throws all of his other pitches for an average speed ranking in or near the top ten for each one.

Looking at three sets of early rankings for 2010, I see Ubaldo hovering near the 20-25 range for starting pitchers with guys like Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy and Cole Hamels and if I'm drafting one of those four players, I'm sticking with the less injury-prone twenty-five year old fireballer, who has one of the highest GB% in the majors and plays for an offense that scored the sixth most runs in 2009.

Poll

Which young ace would you rather have in 2010?

Ubaldo Jimenez

32 votes

Yovani Gallardo

35 votes

Cole Hamels

11 votes

78 votes | Poll has closed