SB Nation - Juan Cruz

11/24 - Opinions Can Be A Pain

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 10:00:11 -0000

Okay, so I lied about the Filter being daily this week. Yes, I realize this situation's stupid. Let's move on to the links, shall we? As an experiment, I'm not going to say much about most of the links - except these:

This Dirt Is Free - A Red Sox Fan From Pinstripe Territory

Not completely relevant, but I figure that some people are going to want to be on the lookout for this. Doesn't bother me too much, but I don't own a blog and I don't see most advertisements anyways. That's more of an aesthetic choice than a political one though - I don't enjoy explaining the presence of certain ads to anyone that glances over my shoulder. However, there is a political aspect to blogging that I'd love to discuss:

ESPN is a bunch of morons

I don't particularly like Mr. Simmons's work. Most of it isn't entertaining, to me. But that doesn't mean I think that ESPN should be able to control what he can and can't say. (Yeah, I know, the stupid kid is ranting about stuff that he's not old enough to understand, but just bear with me.)

For one, maybe it's the young and naive view that needs to be considered here; I haven't been around long enough to be corrupted into thinking money is the only thing that matters. That'd be why I tend to over-romanticize simple stuff like curfews - but I digress. To me, there isn't a thing in the world more valuable than my voice. Without it, I wouldn't be able to write this post. Without it, I wouldn't be able to further my education through questioning the material. Without it, I wouldn't be able to express my many, hormone-driven emotions, I wouldn't be able to share my faith, and I wouldn't be able to be the die-hard fan I am. In short, I wouldn't be me without my voice.

Unless Mr. Simmons shares my flair for the dramatic and decided to sign an iron-clad contract with Lucifer so that he could have his voice amplified, I don't see how ESPN can justify censoring someone who was simply defending himself. Even though he probably could have found a more intelligent way of doing it than name-calling via Twitter, Mr. Simmons was not in the wrong to speak his mind. It may be part of the conditions that he agreed to when he signed onto ESPN, but I'm sure an insanity plea wouldn't be that hard to make for Mr. Simmons' case.

And now, onto the other links: some interesting, in not confusing, stuff about different parks and their effects upon stats; a couple of takes on recent Sox news; and plans for MLB domination!

HR/FB Park Factors - THT

For those of us that get a kick out of the wind tunnel effect at New Yankee Stadium, here's some interesting data.

Is UZR park adjusted[?] - Inside the Book

Yeah, I got lost a lot during this, but maybe someone can explain some of the more technical stuff?

Type A label hurts free agents such as John Grabow, Juan Cruz - Sky Andrecheck

Terry Francona's Staff One of the Best in Baseball - NESN.com

Even After Rough Season, Jonathan Papelbon Still the Red Sox' Best Choice for Closer - NESN.com

JD Drew Undergoes Shoulder Surgery - Bleacher Report

Good job, sir. Basically what we've been saying around here for a while.

Trade Market: Righty Relievers - MLBTradeRumors.com

We REALLY should have traded MDC for Nick Johnson. And now he REALLY needs to be good.

Red Sox May Take a Step Back in 2010 To Take Two Steps Forward in 2011 - Bleacher Report

As long as we can fail spectacularly so that we can lose some of the bandwagoners.

Red Sox Don’t Need to Break Bank to Win 2010 World Series - NESN.com

Yes, this is a generally accepted and completely obvious fact. And?

David Ortiz Has No Desire to Be General Manager - Heidi Watney

Try to focus on what Papi is saying, gentlemen.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade RP5: Rich Garces - Fire Brand of the American League

All-Aughts Team of the Decade bench IF: Alex Cora - Fire Brand of the American League

I kid you not, Drugs.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade SP2: Curt Schilling - Fire Brand of the American League

Ben Cherington Is Underrated Difference-Maker for Red Sox - NESN.com

The replacement for Jed Hoyer gets a nice little biographical post.

How Sabermetrics saved my dissertation - THT

What does clinical psychology have in common with Sabermetrics? Quite a bit, as it turns out.

Awesome story.

NEW SEGMENT: ~~OMGOMGOMGIWantToCallItTheJedSectionButItWouldBeWeirdYou'llSeeWhatIMeanInASecond~~

Falling to the Bottom of The Filter

New Poll Question: Left Field Left-overs - Fire Brand of the American League

Umm... where's Cameron? Or at least the Ells (with a new CF) option? I guess not every Sox blog has explored these options.

Miguel Cabrera Reminds Us That Character Still Matters - NESN.com

So THAT'S why he got a 1st place vote!

Why The Red Sox Should Get Alfonso Soriano - Bleacher Report

So... the contract... not at all a bad thing?

Links, comments, and angry rants (just warn us if there's any NSFW language) are all appreciated.

Free Agent Profile: Jose Valverde

davoag — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Valverde found out how much money he could save with Geico...

Browse more photos »

I recently read these two posts on Sabernomics by JC Bradbury about free agency. They got me thinking about how the Astros crop of free agents fits into the market, what kinds of deals comparable players got last season and what we could expect the (former) hometown boys to get this winter. Thus, another mini-series of posts on free agency.

[Sidenote 1: It's also worth noting that our first profile, Valverde, plays a position where the number of players doesn't necessarily correspond to openings on teams. Relievers can market themselves as closers without having vacated that position, thus making for a possibly over-glutted market where some guys will have to sign for significantly less as setup men]

Just the other day, I argued that the Astros should not offer Jose Valverde arbitration. My thinking was that Houston would be on the hook for way too much money, since Valverde would most likely accept the arbitration offer to get a big payday (albeit a one-year payday).

This may or may not be a popular opinion around these parts, so I thought we could look at the 2008 offseason to see what kind of contracts closer got. I ran down the biggies, the Type A's and a few other contracts that are similar to Valverde's numbers. For reference, El Papa Grande earned 8 million in 2009 and pitched 54 1/3 innings, striking out 56 and walking 21. Valverde converted 25 of 29 save opportunities and gave up five home runs. FanGraphs puts his value at a solid 3 million.

[Sidenote 2: I am skeptical of how WAR rates relievers, but after combing through some of this data, it looks like it comes close to nailing down closers, at least. Take that for what it's worth in the rest of this article]

The Comparables

Francisco Rodriguez, RHP, New York Mets

Contract Details: 3 years, 37 million (2m bonus, 09-8.5m, 10-11.5m, 11, 11.5m, 12-17.5m option)

Notes: K-Rod was not worth his contract last season, earning a value of just 1.5 million. Though relievers are typically devalued in WAR, I found that this wasn't necessarily the case with closers. Plenty of the contemporaries on this list had good, valuable seasons in the past. For instance, K-Rod was worth 17 million from 2007 to 2008. Unfortunately, he picked the wrong year to get injured. This contract would appear to be the upper range of Valverde's money.

Kerry Wood, RHP, Cleveland Indians

Contract Details: 2 years, 20.5 million (09-10m, 10-10.5m, 11-11m option)

Notes: Wood was worth 1.9 million in 2009 after totaling 10 million in value the previous season. His contract seemed to be in line with that, though his performance didn't suggest it would continue. It should be noted that only one reliever got a three-year deal. The rest had to settle for two-year deals or one-year fliers.

Brian Fuentes, LHP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Contract Details: 2 years, 17.5 million (09-8.5m, 10-9m, 11-9m option)

Notes: This would appear to be the kind of deal that makes sense for Valverde. Fuentes marked one of the few Type A closers that was both offered arbitration and signed with a team in the offseason. We'll get to a couple other examples in a minute, but for now, let's say Fuentes did much better n 2008 than Valverde did last season, but still couldn't land a deal longer than two years. His almost 9 million average is just above what Valverde earned in 2009, and would certainly be a starting place for any arbitration discussion.

The Other Type A's

Trevor Hoffman, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

Contract Details: 1 year, 6 million (re-signed for 1 year, 8 million with an '11 option of 7 million)

Notes: Hoffman shows the other side of the coin for Valverde. The Padres did not offer Hoffman arbitration heading into last offseason, meaning a team would not have to give up draft picks to sign him. Despite coming off an injury-plagued season, the Brewers gave Hoffman a 6 million dollar tryout in 2009. The venerable saves champ was worth 6.7 million last season, so he performed to the contract and was rewarded with another one year deal.

Juan Cruz, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 6 million (09-2.25m, 10-3.25m, 11-4m option)

Notes: Cruz was a surprise sign as a Type A free agent, since he had the heaviest cost, yet wasn't a closer. Of course, he was not good at all in 50 relief innings for the Royals this season, but this is Dayton Moore we're talking about. He'll do anything. As the quirkiest signing of last winter, Cruz fits right in. How much his situation will impact Valverde's is less clear. Cruz wasn't used the same way and didn't have the same relative value. Still, he got a contract in line with many middle relievers that will form the base of the reliever market.

The Outlier

Kyle Farnsworth, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 9.5 million (09-4.25m, 10-4.5m, 11-5.25m option)

Notes: What did I say about Moore? He gave a 9.5 million dollar contract to Kyle Farnsworth, he of the ever-straight 150 MPH fastball. Of course, Trey Hillman felt obliged to use him in bizarre situations, confounding guys like Rob Neyer and Joe Posnanski. Farnsworth probably earned more money last season than he should have, but he was still worth 3 million, according to FanGraphs. That's also what Valverde was worth, as a point of reference.

Non-Free Agents of Note

Ryan Franklin, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

Contract Details: 2 years, 6.5 million (signed Sept. 1, 2009)

Notes: Franklin saved 38 games for the Cardinals in 2009, but will be heading into his Age 37 season. The Cardinals wisely locked him up for a reasonable 6.5 million over two seasons. That significantly lowers the salary precedent for a guy like Valverde, though, as his agent will have to work off a contract like Soria's to get comparable numbers.

Heath Bell, RHP, San Diego Padres

Contract Details: 1 year, 1.25 million (2008)

Notes: Bell will be due a big raise in 2010, since he led the NL with 42 saves in 2009. Heading into another year of arbitration, the Padres may decide a closer is not a luxury they're willing to splurge on, making Bell tradeable. I'd expect him to fetch anywhere between 4-6 million in arbitration, so that's the number a team's looking at if they go and get Bell. That also means Bell would be that much cheaper than a guy like Valverde on the open market.

Forecast for Valverde

El Papa Grande is one of nine different pitchers who could market themselves as closers this offseason, including Billy Wagner, J.J. Putz, Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyons. Now, most people would argue that Valverde is the best of the crop, but that also carries a price. We can surmise from last year's market that even Valverde will not get more than a three year deal, and that his ceiling is probably around 10 million. Coming off an injury plagued season, though, means his market will be compressed slightly. Add to that the more reasonable deals signed by Joakim Soria (3 years, 8.75 million) and Franklin, and Valverde will be lucky to get 8m per season. In arbitration, though? The Astros risk paying him anywhere from 3 million to 11 million next season if they offer arb. and he accepts. Given that Wade will have around 15-17 million to work with, is it worth eating up that much of the budget for a closer?

My assumption is the Astros will decline to offer him arbitration and he will sign a two year deal for somewhere around 18 million, with a possible third year option for 10 million. I won't guess who'd give him that contract, but looking at both the market and last year's offseason, those numbers seem right.

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part V: The Bullpen

Jim McLennan — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 20:15:35 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Somehow, this pic - Qualls yelling to the bench for help after hurting his knee against Houston - sums up the bullpen's entire season...

Browse more photos »

The Arizona bullpen allowed 271 runs and finished the season with a 4.61 ERA, both numbers which put them ahead only of Washington among National League relief corps. We've previously discussed the waking nightmare which was the eighth inning, but it's also worth taking a look at the numbers posted by the bullpen in general. How do they stack up in total? What were the issues? How might things have gone, and where do we go from here?

FIP vs. ERA
On straight ERA, as noted above, our relievers were pretty bad, even when you adjust for park factor. However, the underlying performance numbers weren't quite as horrendous. Arizona relievers had a combined line of .264/.338/.395, which is an sOPS+ of only 101, not too much worse than average. Fangraphs.com's FIP stat goes even further: the D-backs FIP was 4.02 - sixth-best in the league - with the biggest gap between that and 'actual' ERA of any team in the National League. This explains why they rated our pen at 36.1 runs above replacement, not just above average, but very close to the number (39.4) posted by the "lights out" 2007 bullpen.

The only two relievers with 10+ innings, to have a FIP higher than their ERA were Clay Zavada (FIP 3.92) and Blaine Boyer (3.34), both of which make sense. Zavada certainly benefited from the lucky scoreless streak which opened his career - his ERA the rest of the way was 5.34. And Boyer is obviously not the 2.68 ERA pitcher he was with Arizona: if he was anything like that, the Cardinals wouldn't have dumped him. Still, even if they deliver their FIP numbers in 2010, I don't think we'll mind too much. The other eight relievers all had FIP better than their ERA, the amount ranging from 0.07 (yeah, Scott Schoeneweis was as bad as he looked) to 1.06 for Juan Gutierrez.

There are various reasons why FIP can differ. It's based purely on home-runs, strikeouts and walks: you might think, "Hang on - the number of hits that stay in the park is irrelevant?" But the problem there, is that those do depend on the defense, so are not a good measure of pitching ability. I'll go into more detail about our glovework in the final part of this series, but Arizona's defensive efficiency - the percentage of balls turned into outs - was below average. If it seems counter-intuitive that you put H, K and HR into a mathematical blender and get a number that means anything, studies have shown that FIP is a better indicator of future performance than ERA.

Win Probability
However, the Hardball Times Win Probability Added is less convinced, saying our relievers cost Arizona 2.81 wins, this year ahead only of Pittsburgh and Washington. This is the same Win Probability we graph after every game; the winning team has 0.5 of a win to divide up, and the losers -0.5 blame. Over the entire season, our hitters "cost" Arizona 6.53 wins, and our starting pitching 1.67. [The total, not by coincidence, is 11, the number we were below .500] However, you should remember the value of a performance is radically dependent on when it happens. As Dave Studeman points out, "If a player hits a home run in the ninth inning of a 1-0 game, he is credited with more WPA points than if he hits a home run in the first inning of a 1-0 game."

The late innings will tend to have more leverage as a result, though given the bullpen threw about half the innings of the starters, to be "responsible" for more losses than the rotation isn't good. Still, the implication is that the offense was a bigger problem for the team in 2009 than the pitching in total. For context, it 2008, the bullpen WPA was -1.16 wins and in 2007, it was a stunning +7.48 victories. This is likely a reflection of the huge number of close contests in which that team was involved. Almost one-third (52) were decided by one-run, and when you get into the late innings of such games, every out has a very significant impact on Win Probability.

Was the bullpen overtaxed?
Not apparently. The average team saw 2,184 PAs dealt with by their relievers last season; Arizona saw fractionally less than that, at 2,122 - it clearly helped to have one of the most durable starters in the league, in Dan Haren, whose IP/start was 6.95, fourth-best in the league. Jon Garland (6.18, 24th) and Doug Davis (5.98, 34th) were also above the NL-average of 5.82. The Diamondbacks were also the least-likely team to use a reliever on back-to-back days: this happened only 80 times, the most common subjects being Gutierrez and Rauch, each eleven times. However, the results of such outings were good, with a 3.67 ERA.

The only reliever who worked more than 55 innings for the Diamondbacks was Gutierrez, who threw 71 innings [Rauch and Tony Peña were both around the same for the year, combining the totals for their two teams], which was not enough to put him among the top thirty 'pure' relievers in the majors. By appearances, his 65 games was only ranked #70, though Rauch ended up =13th by that metric. Arizona were right in the middle of the pack with regard to asking our relievers to get more than three outs too, so overall, workload doesn't appear to have been much of an issue for the bullpen as a whole.

Inherited issues
What did seem to be a problem was the bullpen's problem with inherited runners. Across the league, 30% of inherited runners scored, but for the Diamondbacks' relievers, that number was 38%, the worst figure in the NL. Only two relievers were below league average, and that fractionally: Scott Schoeneweis and Leo Rosales both came in at 29%, and the brevity of the former's appearances were likely a factor. From there, things only get worse, all the way up to Blaine Boyer (8 of 17 inherited runners scored, 47%) and Daniel Schlereth (7 of 12, 58%). Obviously, while we are talking small sample size here, and not all inherited runners are created equal, the overall numbers are significant enough to indicate a problem.

The Arizona bullpen: anti-clutch in action
A major driving factor in a pitcher's ERA will be how they perform with runners in scoring position - as we saw with Doug Davis this year, you can get away with allowing a lot of base-runners, as long as you don't let them get past third-base. This was something our bullpen didn't do last season. The Diamondbacks' OPS for their relievers across all situations in 2009 was .734: they can be divided into three groups by their performance with runners in scoring position (min. 30 such PAs):

    Significantly better: Leo Rosales (.653), Tony Peña (.655), Esmerling Vasquez (.686)
    There or thereabouts: Chad Qualls (.728), Juan Gutierrez (.730),
    Significantly worse: Blaine Boyer (.779), Jon Rauch (.853), Clay Zavada (.959), Scott Schoeneweis (1.078), Daniel Schlereth (1.192)

This would explain the high ERA; not just the raw number of pitchers, but the disparity. We had four relievers whose OPS was 100 points or more worse than bullpen average, when they had runners in scoring position, compared to none who were that much better. Avoiding such a skewed result in 2010 will certainly help. Harder to say whether it's something that can be addressed, or is just a question of waiting for regression to the mean.

What might have been
The front-office got criticism for letting Brandon Lyon and Juan Cruz walk at the end of 2008, and it's fair to say that the arms they brought to Arizona instead, Schoeneweis and Tom Gordon, were dismal failures. Admittedly, the former's problema could in no way have been foreseen, and completely derailed the year. Before his wife's death, Scott had an ERA of 2.53; after, it exploded to 10.80. But in the final analysis, he is just another in a long line of disappointing LOOGY's brought in by the team: see also Randy Choate, Mike Myers, Eddie Oropesa, etc. Since Myers in 2002, no free-agent southpaw reliever has had an ERA+ above 100 for Arizona.

Gordon was a low-risk roll of the die, but even at that, it must have been disappointing to get no more than 1.2 innings and a 21.60 ERA from the veteran. He only cost $600K, but one assumes the budget included the maximum Gordon may have earned, $3m. Between the price of him and Schoeneweis ($2m), the team could certainly have done better. Looing at the players we let go, Juan Cruz signed a two-year, $6m contract with the Royals, but had an ERA of 5.72, with a strikeout rate almost cut in half (from 12.4 K/9 to 6.4). Allowing Cruz to walk now seems wise, and Kansas City will be hoping for much better in 2010.

At first glance, Brandon Lyon was excellent with the Tigers, holding opponents to a .205 average and posting a 2.86 ERA, that seemed to justify fully his $4m deal, and likely sets him up for a big pay-day this winter. However, Lyon did have a freakishly-low BABIP of .229, leading to a FIP above four - the difference put him in the top 20 among major-league relievers. Still, signing him for $4m and getting anything like his actual performance would have been a much better deal for Arizona than Gordon and Schoeneweis.

2010?
From statements so far, it does appear that one or more arms will be added to the bullpen in the off-season. We'll be discussing this in more detail in due course, but I imagine the core is alreay present, in Qualls, Gutierrez, Vasquez and Zavada. Boyer and Schlereth would also seem to have a potential role, though use of the latter in high-leverage situations still concerns me. I still wouldn't mind us spending $5 million or so of the estimated $28m available on a couple of decent arms: I think "reliable" is the key-word there. Rather than us taking a risk on anyone like Gordon, we want someone who we know will contribute.

The last installment of this series will follow, probably next Monday. There, we'll be looking at defense and base-running, and their impact on the team's performance last season.

Some fan perspective on the Astros managerial candidates

DyingQuail — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 14:20:50 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Continuing with the theme of cool pictures instead of relevant ones.

Browse more photos »

If you haven't caught on by now, I'm not overly enamoured with how the managerial search is going. I don't know why that is exactly, but it probably just has something to do with the fact that I won't get to make the decision; or that I don't trust I'll like the decision made.

By far the best thing to come of the managerial search, though, came last night via a Tweet from Brian McTaggart:

GM Wade said manager search now private; "We’ve been open on this thing, but I don’t want it to get to the point of Dancing With the Stars"

With that chuckle out of the way, it seems to me like we'll get less perspective on what goes on with the managerial search from here on out, but that doesn't mean we can't keep getting a better feel of who these gentlemen are. I've enlisted the help of some gracious blog managers from around SBN who have had to opportunity to observe the various managerial candidates in action.

So after the jump, check out what they had to say about their experience with our candidates as a manager.

Mackanin

The only manager that I'm familiar with is Pete Mackanin, who managed the Reds for half the season in 2007. A lot of the readers on our site really like Mackanin for a couple of reasons. First, he's hilarious. He seemed like the kind of guy that simply appreciated the opportunity to be in the dugout and didn't mind making jokes to the media. His light-hearted personality is a breath of fresh air with most managers and players who speak in cliches all of the time.

The second reason so many of us liked Mackanin is because he wasn't afraid to think outside of the norm. Granted, since he was interim manager and it was fairly clear that he didn't have much chance to get hired on, he didn't have a lot to lose. The only specific example I have right now is when he brought in a 5th infielder during a game to try to prevent a ball from getting through the infield. He also did stuff like put Jeff Keppinger at SS even when Kepp didn't have much experience there. Of course, Kepp isn't really that good of a shortstop, but it definitely helped the Reds to have his bat in the lineup everyday since Keppinger was killing the ball.

Mackanin took a team that was 20 games under .500 when he took them over and they went 2 over in the last 80 games under him. That's probably the number one reason why fans took to him. Who knows if that was real or just a bad team having a decent stretch. I don't remember many times during that span though that I regretted Mackanin being with the team. Unfortunately, I can't say much of the same about Dusty Baker.

--Red Reporter

Acta:

Acta was interviewed by the Rangers when they fired Buck Showalter, and he was the guy I was most interested in, mainly because in his interviews (including the rather famous one in saber-circles he did with BP) he came across as a stathead type. He was in a no-win situation in Washington, but he's someone who it seems like deserves a second chance, although with Houston's dysfunctional front office situation, this may not be the best second-chance landing spot for him.

--Lone Star Ball

Yost

Yost is still hated by Rangers fans because the Rangers traded Jim Sundberg for him back in the early 80s, and he had one of the worst seasons ever in major league history. So if you are looking for more Astro/Ranger rivalry stuff, Yost has that going for him.

--Lone Star Ball

[I think this probably get's Yost some street cred with some of us]

Yost did a pretty nice job of sticking with the young guys and developing a nice core of talent during his early years as manager of the Brewers, leading some to believe he might be a decent choice to manage a rebuilding team.

With that said, Yost's temperament and stubbornness really seemed to flare up when the Brewers were expected to contend. His lineup and bullpen decision making were questionable at best. He tended to stick with his starting pitchers far too long, giving them just enough rope to hang themselves, then telling reporters they "really battled today" and were "one pitch away from getting out of it" after the game.

He likely wasn't the worst manager in baseball, but his stubbornness and his prickly demeanor did him no favors, and his unwillingness to publicly admit a mistake or explain the rationale behind a questionable move quickly earned him a lot of hostility from the fan base. He doesn't appear to have learned from that mistake - he told reporters following his interview in Houston that he still didn't know why he'd been fired in Milwaukee.

Behind the scenes, Yost was often referred to as "Nervous Ned," reportedly drank volumes of coffee that can only be described as legendary, and was widely blamed for a tight, edgy clubhouse atmosphere in 2008, when he was eventually fired.

--Brew Crew Ball

Pedrique

Pedrique was basically handed the keys to the Titanic after hitting the iceberg and told, "Have fun." He was given the job on a team with a 29-50 record that had lost its best slugger (Richie Sexson) for the season. He didn't really have much hope of doing anything, given the group of replacement-level players with the team, and was never intended as more than a place-holder.

--AZ Snake Pit

Bob Melvin

Bob Melvin is a more interesting case. His first three years, he oversaw continual improvement, taking the team to the 2007 NLCS with a league-leading 90 wins. I'll confess, I bought into the myth of his genius, given that he had overseen two of the biggest gaps over Pythagorean expected record in baseball history (+11 games in both 2005 and 2007). However, he couldn't sustain it, and the team basically dropped off a cliff after April 2008 - he was 74-88 over the last "season" of his time here.

I didn't like his managerial style. Too fond of bunts by position players, even in the first couple of innings, and tended to stay with his starters too long - supposedly "giving them a change to win," it seemed to end up condemning them to defeat more often than not. His choice of bullpen arms was also questionable, not least his mis-use of Juan Cruz, who was one of the best relievers in the league from 2007-08, but was largely condemned to mop-up duty by Melvin. He had his favorites, and they played pretty fixed roles - the concept that the game might need to be 'saved' before the ninth was totally alien to Melvin. Do not expect a fixed line-up either. In 2007, we had *158* different batting orders including pitchers, and 151 in 2008.

--AZ Snake Pit

As more responses come in, I'll post them and send this back to the top of the home page, but I think we have enough here to start dissecting the managerial tendencies of these candidates. Thanks to all the other bloggers at SBN for helping out with this; I'm pretty sure this will be indispensable in helping us better gauge the candidates.

Are These the Guys We Wanted?

Jesse — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 11:01:00 -0000

Every year we have a little wish-list of guys we hope the organization targets. Here are a select few who garnered interest from Twinkie Town or from the Twins organization. In no particular order...

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Juan Cruz	3-4	46	0	0	0	2	4	50.1	46	34	32	6	29	38	5.72	1.49

He's always been a bit of a loose cannon, but at least he was striking out people with such regularity and consistency that he could get himself out of as much trouble as he got himself into. This year the strikeout rate was nearly cut in half, his LOB& dropped from 83.6% in 2007 to a miserable 62.1% this season. He was around the strike zone more often, hitters stopped swinging at anything he threw outside of the strike zone and contact was way up. It was a bad season for Cruz, and suffice it to say I'm glad the Twins didn't gamble here.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Joe Crede	90	333	42	75	16	1	15	48	29	56	0	0	.225	.289	.414

I think we pretty much got what we expected out of Joe. He was a good defender when he was on the field (15.9 UZR/150), and was a power bat you had to show some respect if you were a pitcher who survived the first half of the Minnesota batting order. Too bad he wasn't around for the post-season, we could have used him.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Orlando Hudson	149	551	74	156	35	6	9	62	62	99	8	1	.283	.357	.417

Hot start, and that led to a pretty decent season for the 32-year old second baseman. The Dodgers phased him out toward the end of the season. His defense was better than last year, but was still just south of average if we go by his -2.9 UZR/150. His $3.38 million base salary wasn't bad, but if he signed for that to play with the Dodgers then I'm sure the Twins would have had to pony up a bit more. His incentives made it possible for the year to be worth a full $10 million, all based around plate appearances: $150K for reaching both the 150 and 175 plate appearance mark; $200 K for every 25 plate appearances from 200 - 300; $250 K for every 25 from 325 - 575; $10,000 for EVERY SINGLE plate appearance from 576 - 632. How many PA's did he have this year? 631.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Russ Springer	0-1	48	0	0	0	0	1	41.2	52	20	19	5	14	47	4.10	1.58

Great walk and strikeout rates, but he was an extreme fly-ball pitcher again this year and allowed a bunch of homers as a result--19 is enough for a guy who pitches 200 innings, much less 41.2. His breaking balls and off-speed pitches were almost non-existant, making almost exclusively a two-pitch pitcher with his fastball and cutter. Lots of good peripherals for Springer though, and so even though he'll be 41 in November he should still get some interest in the coming months.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jarrod Washburn Mariners Tigers	8-6 1-3	20 8	20 8	1 0	1 0	0 0	0 0	133.0 43.0	109 51	42 35	39 35	11 12	33 16	79 21	2.64 7.33	1.07 1.56

W-L

SHO

ERA

WHIP

2009 - Jarrod Washburn

Mariners

Tigers

8-6

1-3

133.0

43.0

109

2.64

7.33

1.07

1.56

There were a lot, and I mean a LOT of rumors tying Washburn to the Twins last winter. As good as he was with the Mariners this season, seeing how horrendous he was in his short stint with the Tigers just confirms exactly how much Minnesota didn't need him around. He may have lucked the Twins into an extra win or two early in the season, but he would have given them right back at the end of the year when it counted: barely five inning a start, almost as many runs as he'd had in three times the innings, a disgusting number of homers...no, thank you.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ty Wigginton	122	410	44	112	19	0	11	41	23	57	1	2	.273	.314	.400

The walks dipped slightly after a career year in 2008, but it was the power that literally just disappeared. He couldn't hit fastballs, which is never good, but he wasn't really having success no matter which pitch type he'd swing at. Wigginton's overall contact percentage was constant, and he was even swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone, but he was making more contact on the ones he did swing at. Which, probably, meant easier outs. It looks like Wigginton's pitch selection just disappeared this year, along with his power, and along with a little bit of bad luck (or maybe just not as much luck as he had last year) his numbers took a major dip. He's a guy I really wanted the Twins to go after.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Nomar Garciaparra	65	160	17	45	8	0	3	16	8	28	2	0	.281	.314	.388

This could be the end for Nomar. I did entertain the idea of picking him up for a bench option, as a guy who could start as a DH versus southpaws while playing a couple innings at third here and there. Another one of my crackpot ideas, clearly.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Casey Blake	139	485	84	136	25	6	18	79	63	116	3	4	.280	.363	.468

Knowing what we know now, seeing how decent of a year Blake had, would you sign him to the deal the Dodgers did? I said no when it happened, and in spite of his good year I wouldn't change my answer. Three years plus an option in 2012, that at a minimum will pay out $17.5 million dollars including '12's buyout...and in reality it's still probably safe to say that Minnesota would have had to beat that offer somehow land Blake in a Twins uniform.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Mike Lincoln	1-1	19	0	0	0	0	0	23.0	29	21	21	7	19	9	8.22	2.09

His name came up just before the Winter Meetings kicked up. Not good, ladies and gents, not good.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Garrett Atkins	126	354	37	80	12	1	9	48	41	58	0	0	.226	.308	.342

Definitely dodged a bullet here.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Adrian Beltre	111	449	54	119	27	0	8	44	19	74	13	2	.265	.304	.379

No doubt this was a bad, bad year for Adrian, but considering his prowess with the glove (14.7 UZR/150) I can still see the Twins showing some interest. He'll be 31 next season, so a breakout season is likely out of the cards but I do believe he could quite easily be a moderately productive offensive third baseman. But considering how much the Twins would have had to give up to get him last winter, it's a good thing they didn't work it out.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Miguel Tejada	158	635	83	199	46	1	14	86	19	48	5	2	.313	.340	.455

I'm not sure Tejada would have had this good of a season in the American League, but no doubt 46 doubles is a fantastic number and slightly off-sets his steady but definitely suppressed power numbers over the last few years. Still, the reason the Twins didn't continue to pursue him during the Winter Meetings was because of what the Astros, allegedly, were asking for in return. And I know that last winter, given the option between Tejada and Crede for third base, I'd have gone with Crede.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Orlando Cabrera Athletics Twins	101 59	414 242	41 42	116 70	23 13	0 3	4 5	41 36	25 11	39 32	11 2	4 0	.280 .289	.318 .313	.365 .430

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

2009 - Orlando Cabrera

Athletics

Twins

101

414

242

116

.280

.289

.318

.313

.365

.430

O-Cab finished strong with the Twins. Having him all season would have been better than who we had on board, and we found out the kind of fire, energy and leadership he can bring to a team. He's someone guys like Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla can look up to as a leader. My hesitation in wanting him back in 2010 has to deal with A) how much money he wants and B) how much worse his range can get. But yes, this is a guy that, in hindsight, would have been a good addition. At the same time I know that had the Twins brought him in last winter, I'd be wondering why they didn't try for someone better. Just goes to show you how perspective can change your mind.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Jack Wilson Pirates Mariners	75 31	266 107	26 11	71 24	18 5	1 0	4 1	31 8	15 6	31 17	2 1	1 0	.267 .224	.304 .263	.387 .299

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

2009 - Jack Wilson

Pirates

Mariners

266

107

.267

.224

.304

.263

.387

.299

Very good defense at shortstop (15.3 UZR/150), but miserable offense. He's the kind of guy that, with a better offense around him or more depth off the bench, I'd be happy to have as a starter. I didn't want him last season, but knowing what I know now I think I probably could have dealt with what he brings to the table. Middle infield talent was clearly an issue this season.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Mark DeRosa Indians Cardinals	71 68	278 237	47 31	75 54	13 10	0 1	13 10	50 28	29 18	63 58	1 2	1 1	.270 .228	.342 .291	.457 .405

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

2009 - Mark DeRosa

Indians

Cardinals

278

237

.270

.228

.342

.291

.457

.405

Would DeRose continued to have a good season had he spent an entire season in the American League? Who knows, but considering Cleveland got him for a song I'm still shocked the Twins didn't move on him. Maybe they just didn't like him for one reason or another, but I was a fan. No doubt he'd have spent his whole season in Minnesota had be been healthy.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Kevin Kouzmanoff	141	529	50	135	31	1	18	88	27	106	1	0	.255	.302	.420

Quite a bit of chatter about Kouz around the Winter Meetings, and I know some people were fans. I wasn't. His defense wasn't bad at third this year, but offensively he's a guy like Crede--pop but no real on-base skills.

Is there anyone that I've missed? Just a little nostalgic look at last year's off-season, making me wonder what does this one have in store? I'm thinking...well, I'm thinking something to do with one of the best-hitting catchers of all time.

I'll catch you all later.

Hot Corner Futures

the red baron — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 14:56:33 -0000

by Morry Gash - AP

They call him Lego. And he will destroy all you hold dear. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

View full size photo »

So apparently this Matt Holliday guy is pretty decent at playing the baseball, huh?

On the list of least expected wins of this year, I would have to put that one right up near the top. For eight full innings, it felt like the Cards were just going to let the game slip away from them, victims again of poor at-bats and bases left full of runners. Oh well, the collective mind of Cardinal fandom said to itself, you can't win them all, I suppose. Hell, the Cubs haven't actually gained a full game on the Cards since late July; that's a pretty good run. Just one of those days when the team didn't quite get it done.

But Matt Holliday was having none of it. Hey there, collective consciousness, he said, that's loser talk! Why, I'm going to hit this Hall of Fame changeup over that center field wall just to prove to you how wrong you are!

And so he did. And there was much rejoicing.

Oh, and I would like to send my thanks to Tony La Russa for sticking to what I like to call the Grand United David Weathers Theory of Baseball. On second thought, I need a better name for it than that. GUDWTB just doesn't really stick in your mind, does it? Someone help me out with a better name.

I'll be honest with you; there really isn't a whole lot else I can say about last night's game. Smoltz looked very, very shaky in the early going but then seemed to get himself back on track; with his ability to get the strikeout, I think he's going to be a very, very useful weapon for the Cards come playoff time, most likely late in the game. I do think we need to change Blake Hawksworth's nickname to the Lucky Charm. Just saying.

Given the fact today's contest is a day game, I'm going to be brief this morning. Or at least try.

The longer the season goes on, the more convinced I become the Cardinals are probably going to resign Matt Holliday. He's been so good, and such an ideal fit, I just can't see the Cards letting him walk. Never mind the PR disaster; the fans will follow as long as the team wins. But more importantly, I think the organisation is still committed to keeping Tony La Russa on board as the manager, and having Holliday in a Redbird uniform for the near future could go a long way toward helping make Tony's decision whether or not to return in 2010 and beyond much easier. Plus, Scott Boras or no, Holliday seems to be honestly enjoying his time here in St. Louis, enough I think he'll accept a fair deal with relatively little fuss. He isn't going to be giving the Cards a discount, by any means, but I also don't think he's going to hold out and try to get Mark Texeira money. (I was getting ready to make a comment about how good our pie is here in flyover country, but then played it back in my head and decided that maybe wasn't the exact best phrasing I could come up with.)

No, to me, the more interesting free agent situation of the offseason for the Cardinals is going to be that of their current third baseman, Mark DeRosa. DeRosa is in a rather unusual position going into the offseason, and it will be very interesting indeed to see if he'll get anything approaching the sort of contract most of us assumed he would be due.

The problem, of course, is DeRosa has problems. Specifically, he has a wrist problem and a status problem. The wrist problem revolves around a tendon sheath and will require surgery in the offseason to repair it. The status problem revolves around the letter A.

As a likely Type A free agent this year, DeRosa will cost any team interested in signing him either their first or second-round draft pick in the 2010 draft. In the past, a player with numbers good enough to qualify as a Type A would generally be the sort of player a team would be perfectly willing to part with a draft pick for, but the math of baseball has changed. Teams are valuing their draft picks much, much more highly than in the past, as we saw this past winter. Players like Juan Cruz and Orlando Hudson found themselves on the market much, much later than anticipated, largely due to the Type A status and accompanying draft cost they were carrying around with them. Of course, Dayton Moore then proved not all teams have quite made it on the bandwagon yet; personally, I'm kind of hoping Moore continues making ~~stupid~~ brilliant moves like that and decided to stick it to his team's cross-state rival by trading them Alex Gordon for a bucket of KFC.

If the only issue for DeRosa were his arbitration status, he would likely be just fine. There would be at least one team out there willing to give up an early draft pick for the offensive upgrade he would immediately give them. Unfortunately for Monsieur du fait de Monter, his wrist issues and rather advanced age make him a bit of a risky bet anyway; add in the loss of a valuable draft pick, and I don't think too very many teams are going to be beating down his door, contract in hand.

Keeping all that in mind, I thought I might look at a few of the more likely candidates to fill the Cardinals' impending opening at the hot corner; give us all a bit better idea of just what's out there.

Mark DeRosa

Pros: Power bat, solid on-base skills. (though those have suffered since coming to St. Louis. Consternant!) Is, by all accounts, a good clubhouse guy. (Valuations may vary.) Gives outstanding interviews. Quite handsome. (Seriously, we've all seen his wife -- and no, I'm not posting pictures -- and I have to say, he might be the good-looking one in that marriage. Just saying.) Cool name. Will likely come on a short-term contract, due to factors outlined above.

Cons: See above. (Wrist, age, etc.)

Troy Glaus

Pros: Has hit for power in the past, decent on-base skills. Solid defender. A source of significant entertainment even when striking out. Scratch that, especially when striking out. Will likely come on a short-term deal, probably one-year.

Cons: Has missed almost the entire season after having left shoulder surgery, so health is a serious concern going forward. (And let's face it, we've seen what happens to St. Louis third basemen after they have shoulder surgery.) Well on the wrong side of 30, so decline is a concern.

David Freese

Pros: Very good glove. Young. Has a great story as a native St. Louisan. (Again, valuation may vary.) Has shown good power at the minor league level. Walk rates consistently near 10% at most levels. Making league minimum.

Cons: Unproven. May have lingering concerns about health after having ankle surgery. Was less than forthcoming about the injury with the organisation early on. Has few weaknesses as a player, but also has no real outstanding tools.

Brett Wallace

Pros: Remarkable plate discipline, plus power to all fields. Should hit early and often. Has good hands. Will be very inexpensive, making league minimum as a rookie. Great nickname already, though he apparently doesn't really like being called the Walrus.

Cons: Not actually an option. (Sniff)

Allen Craig

Pros: Hits and hits and hits and hits. Has never posted an OPS below .868 at any full-season minor league stop. Hits for both average and power, with a .921 OPS this year in Memphis. Will make league minimum.

Cons: Struggles in the field, often attempting to catch the ball with an oven mitt. Occasionally tries to get traded in mid-inning to avoid playing defense. Once invited Tony La Russa to a party at Michael Vick's house. Wants to pee in your pool. (Note: none of this is true, but I can't think of any other reasons why Craig is so universally ignored in the organisation.)

Joe Mather

Pros: Best nickname ever. Tremendous power, plus athleticism. Versatile; can play third, first, and any outfield position. Inexpensive, making league minimum.

Cons: Is a below-average defender at third. Missed almost all season with wrist issues; it will remain a concern until he proves it is not. Probably going to steal your girlfriend. Better fit in the outfield or as a supersub than an everyday third baseman. (Then again, so is DeRosa, so...)

Adrian Beltre

Pros: Best defensive third baseman on the market; barely a step down from Scott Rolen or Ryan Zimmermann. Younger than you think. Numbers have been depressed in Seattle; may be undervalued. Could come on short-term deal to try and reestablish himself. Enjoys free balling. Possibly a good bet to capture a bit of contract-year lightning in a bottle.

Cons: Health is a concern, as Beltre had season-ending shoulder surgery in July. Doesn't really like the walks so much (career .325 OBP). Scott Boras client. Competitiveness has been questioned at times. May have left his free balling days behind.

Chone Figgins

Pros: Fun to watch. Seriously. Hits for high average and has become a very good on-base player. Versatile, though truly awful in the outfield. Solid-average defender at third, maybe a little better than that. Walk rates have increased steadily.

Cons: Has little (read: no) power. Aging curve is not kind to speed players over 30. Will likely require long-term contract, and at high dollars. Is a fan favorite in Anaheim (as well as a manager favorite), and seems a fair bet to resign with the Angels. Violates rules of scrappiness by being black.

Joe Crede

Pros: Very good defender. Local product (Jeff City), nice story. Strong arm, good hands, plus range.

Cons: Has never been much of a hitter, and is in further decline. Chronic back problems have necessitated multiple surgeries. No longer has much power, and has never had much in the way of plate discipline. Over 30 with serious physical issues.

Melvin Mora

Pros: Would come cheaply on a short-term deal.

Cons: Is fairly awful. And old. And kind of a jackass. And awful.

And that, folks, is just about it. Technically, there are a few others, guys like Craig Counsell and Rich Aurilia and Nomaaaaaahhhhh, but I just can't really see the Cardinals looking at any of those guys too seriously. I suppose Pedro Feliz might be an option, but I'm not feeling it.

So given the options, what would be your choice? Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing Beltre if he came on a one-year deal, and I like Chone Figgins a lot. As far as Figgins goes, though, with the Cards needing to find budget space for Hurricane Holliday as well as the impending Albert mega deal, I doubt he's much of an option. Also, as I said above, I just get the feeling he stays in Anaheim. A guy I would very much be interested in is the player Figgins is blocking, Brandon Wood. Wood has destroyed the minors for several years now, but has struggled to make the transition to the big leagues. I think the Angels' handling of Wood has had a hand in his struggles, as he's never been given much of a chance to prove himself, instead filling in at short or third here and there with inconsistent playing time. He may be a bust, but I think it would certainly be worth finding out.

As for the in-house options, I know there is some sentiment to bring back Glaus, but I would vote no. Maybe if DeRosa does in fact go elsewhere Glaus would be worth it on a one-year low guaranteed deal, but shoulders just scare me. I think DeRosa is a better bet to be productive coming off his postseason surgery than Glaus coming off his long year of rehab. Just my opinion, though.

In the end, DeRosa probably represents the best option, especially if offered arbitration and signed for only a single year. Otherwise, I'm comfortable letting David Freese have first crack at the position in spring training, then look for possible solutions as the season goes on if he struggles. Well, technically, I would probably give Allen Craig first crack at it, but that apparently isn't in the organisation's plans. It is kind of nice to see the Cards giving Craig the chance to break Crash Davis' minor league home run record, though; that's the sort of thing we'll all remember forever. What? What the hell is fiction?

Above all, though, please god no more Joe Thurston. This is one case where I absolutely don't care what the numbers say. I can't take another season of watching him play third base for this team.

What say you, mob? (I would say angry mob, but who can be angry after watching the Douche Crew crash and burn?)

The Baron's Playlist for the 9th of September, 2009

"Poke" - Frightened Rabbit

"Holes" - Mercury Rev

"Blake's View" - M. Ward

"Robot Ponies" - Laura Barrett

"He's Simple, He's Dumb, He's the Pilot" - Grandaddy

Morning Prowl: Inge's Left Knee, Suggesting a Diamondbat, Zumaya's Shoulder, and In Search of the D-Train

Ian Casselberry — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 14:00:21 -0000

If you missed the news before last night's game, Brandon Inge revealed that he's battling a pretty serious case of patella tendinitis that's been causing "excruciating" pain. Inge says his patella tendon is "75% torn," while head trainer Kevin Rand describes it more as "a defect" caused by a series of micro-tears.

The question becomes how effective Inge can be while playing with such an injury. He says he won't go on the DL unless he's assured sitting out would make the knee better and get him back in 15 days. While it's admirable that Inge doesn't want to bail out while the team is in a playoff race (for a city and fanbase that's struggling economically), at what point does this become counter-productive?

Carlos Guillen went 1-for-3 with two walks and a strikeout for the Mud Hens last night, batting third as the designated hitter. (Thanks to SabreRoseTiger for linking to this in the comments of last night's recap.)

Detroit4lyfe thinks Chad Tracy could be a low-cost bat for the Tigers to pursue. This season for the Diamondbacks, he's hitting .222/.285/.386 with five homers and 24 RBIs, which is hardly impressive. However, in the month of July, Tracy has a .286/.357/.429 batting line.

He also has experience playing both corner infield and outfield spots, though he's mostly been a third baseman. (And one of those might not be a bad idea, with Inge playing on a that partially torn left knee).

Ryan Strieby could be a possible trade chip for the Tigers over the next nine days, so it's good timing for The Spot Starters to take a look at his season (.305/.421/.501, 17 HR, 53 RBI) with Double-A Erie.

Earlier in the season, Dayn Perry thought the Tigers should go after Huston Street to upgrade their closer spot. (Colorado's not making that trade now, as they lead the NL Wild Card race.) So we know he's no fan of Fernando Rodney. Now, he suggests Detroit should see what it takes to get Heath Bell from San Diego. Bell has 24 saves (in 25 chances), along with 46 strikeouts in 29.1 innings this season.

(via Scott Warheit)

Beck also has a bit of an update on Joel Zumaya, as he and the Tigers are currently mulling over whether to rest him for a couple of weeks and try to bring him back, or to shut him down and have surgery to correct his stress fracture. Zumaya will likely need surgery regardless. It's now just a question of when.

Lynn Henning attempts to investigate what is going on with Dontrelle Willis (something that's long overdue among the media that covers the Tigers, by the way) nowadays. Currently, he's working out in Toledo, throwing on the side and pitching in simulated games, while also taking care of "off-field things."

Henning did find out that the Tigers have to provide specific details regarding Willis's condition to the commissioner's office, rather than just say "Oh, anxiety disorder!" as a way of keeping him off the roster.

So maybe it's a good thing that the Tigers didn't go after Juan Cruz, after all. Hey, it seemed like a good idea at the time.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 14:23:56 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Felipe Lopez suddenly realizes he's about to make an out on the basepaths for the second straight day.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while staying ahead of profanity.

So, yesterday started with notes on grudges and postulations on the mysterious identity of Dave Kerwin, but ended with a relatively quiet and drama-free 2-0 victory. Hopefully both teams got some rest tonight, because they'll need it before today's 11:30 start.

With the win last night, Braden Looper improved to 7-2 in 16 starts following a Brewer loss. The Brewers are 11-5 in those starts (Thanks TheJay). He pitched seven shutout innings (on just 94 pitches) last night, ending a streak of nine consecutive starts where he had lasted six innings or less. On the other end of the spectrum, B-Ref says Roy Halladay (13) and Dan Haren (9) have each had streaks this season of nine starts or more where they've pitched seven innings or more.

Speaking of Halladay, any effort to acquire him will have to accelerate soon. Halladay has a scheduled start on July 29, and the Jays are saying that won't trade him after that date. Other notes on potentially available pitchers:

Dayn Perry thinks the Brewers should clean out the farm and make a strong push to acquire Halladay or Cliff Lee.
The Brewers could be one of several teams asking the Pirates about Ian Snell, but the Pirates aren't willing to give him away or deal him in a swap of bad contracts. That's a shame, because I think Bill Hall would look great in a Pirates uniform.
Justin Duchscherer showed up in Rumorville yesterday, but Jorge Says No! wonders why the A's would consider trading him at this point. Duchscherer has missed all of 2009, and will be a free agent after the season.

We'll probably find out in an hour or so if Felipe Lopez will be able to play today. Lopez left last night's game early with tightness in his hamstring, but the move was called "precautionary." Lopez has 13 hits in his last eight games, so the Brewers may have acquired him at the right time.

The Brewers may also be catching the Pirates at the right time. There's some drama in the Pirates clubhouse right now involving Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson, who were recently thrown lowball "take it or leave it" extension offers from the team, then had the offers taken off the table when they took too long to respond. FanGraphs has the details on the offers, which included voiding an $8 million vesting option for Sanchez for next season, but only paying him $10 million over two seasons instead.

Today will be day two of Dale Sveum's three game suspension. Tom H. called the suspension a joke, and his concerns about the quality of umpiring are valid. Baseball is the only major sport where umpires are allowed to be confrontational about it after blowing calls. With that said, if you watched the game last night you probably heard Brian Anderson and Bill Schroeder mention that Dale Sveum accidentally spit sunflower seeds on an umpire in the post-game confrontation, and that's almost certainly grounds for the suspension he received.

Are the Brewers too good at holding a grudge? Pat Lackey of MLB FanHouse had this to say following Monday's incident:

Actually, I'm pretty sure it's not over because the Brewers take ridiculous offense to just about everything. Last year, Prince Fielder tried to pick a fight with Matt Capps over a similar incident and earlier this year, Braun took offense to a pitch from Ryan Dempster that was thrown up and in.

It sort of sounds like, just maybe, the Brewers take offense to just about everything that happens on the field that they don't like.

Here's breaking news: The Brewers don't like getting hit by pitches, especially near the head. And the fact that they don't like it makes them bad people. Obviously. Just ask Dave Kerwin.

Mat Gamel is back in Nashville, where he'll get the opportunity to play everyday and be ready, should the Brewers have to call on him again this season. Matthew Pouliot of Circling the Bases says Gamel's brief run in the big leagues was a success, and points to his .267/.341/.493 line as a third baseman as evidence.

Eric Arnett had a pretty nice outing last night for Helena, throwing three innings with no runs, no hits and two walks. (Noted in Minor League Notes.) Project Prospect has a nice quick scouting report on Arnett. We haven't been hearing as much, though, from Arnett himself: his Twitter account has been quiet since July 3, and one has to wonder if the Brewers told him to stop.

Around baseball:

Cubs: Milton Bradley appeared in his 75th game last night, vesting an option that will pay him $10 million in 2011.
Giants: Placed Rich Aurilia on the DL with an infected big toe.
Mariners: Designated Josh Wilson for assignment.
Red Sox: Placed Tim Wakefield on the DL with a back strain.
Yankees: Designated Brett Tomko for assignment.

I mention Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star every so often, because he's one of my favorite beat writers. Today, he demonstrates why again, as he attempts to use PitchFx to identify what's wrong with Juan Cruz. Most beat writers might not have made the effort.

They don't get mentioned as often as they should, but host families frequently play a huge role in the life of young minor leaguers who wouldn't be able to afford to live on their own on small minor league paychecks. The San Jose Mercury News has a nice profile today of one host family. (h/t Andrew Baggarly, who also has some extra quotes.)

If you're still looking for more baseball content to tide you over until today's Game Thread opens at 10:30, Amazin' Avenue has a look at the best stuff from some of the other sites around SBNation.

Of course, today is also a Woot-off Day.

Drink up.

Diamondbacks 12, Royals 5: "Business as usual" - we certainly hope

Jim McLennan — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 04:42:44 -0000

More photos » by ED ZURGA - AP

Chris Young's new batting stance is certainly improving his walk-rate...

Browse more photos »

Record: 29-38. Pace: 70-92. Change on last season: -7. Change on 2004: +2

~~After last night's miserable performance, the Diamondbacks headed into the second game of their series with the Royals with nowhere to go but up~~. No, this isn't really going to work. Though the score was exactly the same as last night, and there were some startling similarities [the Royals making it more respectable by putting up a three-spot in the ninth during both], I really can't simply just cut and paste Azreous's sterling recap - much though it would certainly make my life easier. However, one sentence from the opening paragraph yesterday remains true: "The D-backs destroyed the Royals in today's game in just about every possible way."

Arizona reached a dozen runs in consecutive road contests, for the first time ever in franchise history - they'd only done it once at home, against the Brewers all the way back on September 26-27, 2001, winning 15-9 and 13-11. Needless to say, conceding ten runs over two games is a considerable improvement on the pitching side over twenty - and it'd have been less than that, save for a worrying ninth-inning from Chad Qualls, who continues to struggle. He allowed three hits and three runs, two earned, in his inning and it could have been worse except for a fortuitous line double-play which ended the game.

Otherwise, however, this was a triumph. I’m making a note here, "Huge success" - it’s hard to overstate my satisfaction... :-) Chris Young stole a base - but more importantly, had four hits, three of them for extra bases, and his long, nightmarish crawl back to a batting average that begins with a .2 has finally reached its goal - the last time he was there was back in April. At the end of the last Dodgers series he was hitting .172; in the two weeks since, Chris has batted .319/.448/.681, with more walks than strikeouts (11:10).

While there's still work to be done, it really does look like Young has turned the corner, but we'd better hope AJ Hinch had a certain fan's number on speed-dial, in case some more impromptu affection is needed by our center-fielder. A slightly-worrying note, in that Young was pulled from the game after his last triple, although it may just have been something like cramp - he left under his own steam. He wasn't the only one with his hitting boots on. Actually, it's probably quicker to say who didn't: Mark Reynolds, who had an eminently forgettable day, going 0-for-6 and commiting an error.

Everyone else had a hit - and in some cases, a lot more. Justin Upton reached four times, on a walk and three hits. Gerardo Parra homered and tripled. Eric Byrnes homered and singles. Miguel Montero had a pair of hits. Felipe Lopez and Stephen Drew each had a hit and a walk. Is that everyone? I think so, except for Augie Ojeda, who singled, and Ryan Roberts, who came in as a late-inning replacement. Sixteen hits, and twenty-four base-runners in total, thanks to four walks, three errors from the Royals and a dropped third-strike which allowed Lopez to reach first-base.

Outside of the ongoing Qualls for concern, the pitching was perfectly solid. Dan Haren cruised through seven innings on 98 pitches, though allowed a few more hits than usual (seven) - still, he walked none and struck out six. The only damage was a one-out double in the third that scored two runs, and he struck out the next two Royals' batters to end that threat. However, the Diamondbacks were five runs ahead when that happened, and after a scoreless fourth, they added three more runs in the fifth to make the score 8-2, and more or less end this as a competive contest. Clay Zavada wobbled a bit in the eighth, allowing two hits and a walk: a double-play helped him extend his scoreless streak to 12.1 innings and 13 games.

And remember the weeping and wailing at not resigning Juan Cruz this winter? He came in for some mop-up work, and allowed two runs on four hits and a walk over two innings, including a home-run to Gerardo Parra. Worth looking at Cruz's stats this season, which are not very impressive so far. His ERA is a lackluster 5.67, the walks are up [5.7, compared to a career figure of 4.7 BB/9] and the strikeouts well down. Over 2007-2008, he struck out 12.62 per nine innings; this season, it's exactly six, less than half as many. The only K of the ten Diamondbacks he faced today was Reynolds, which hardly counts - looks like letting him go may have been a good call.

[Click to enlarge, at fangraphs.com]
Master of his domain: Justin Upton, +15.1%
Honorable mentions: Haren, +11.7%; Lopez,+10.7%
God-emperor of suck: Augie Ojeda, -2.7%

In case you're wondering how Mark Reynolds 0-for-6 day didn't merit anything negative, he reached on an error and a failed fielder's choice, which scored him +7.9%, and countered the negative impact of his other at-bats. Eric Byrnes (-1.3%) was the only other Diamondback in sub-zero territory - I think having just two negative players, totalling minus four percent, must be close to the best the team has ever managed. 238 comments, with hotclaws leading the way and pygalgia the runner-up. Also present: bcloirao, frienetic, Diamondhacks, Brendan Scolari, kishi, Wailord, unnamedDBacksfan, snakecharmer, Scrbl and soco.

If something feels strange tonight, that's because it's the first time since August 15-16 last year - 106 games - the Diamondbacks have won back-to-back contests without a save situation in either of them. In the light of that, as well as the 24 runs on 31 hits, a curiously pessimistic opening sentence from Nick Piecoro: "The Diamondbacks won a game on Thursday but their season continued to spiral out of control." He seems to think the injury to Young may be more serious, though also notes the set-back to Brandon Webb today - however, that feels more a continuation of 'business as usual,' 2009-style, than anything new.

Webb's scheduled bullpen was canceled today, with the pitcher instead returning to Phoenix - he was seen leaving the stadium before the game. Josh Byrnes said Webb "didn't feel good," and so the team canceled what was planned to be his first session throwing off a mound. No more details at this point of where things might go from here, but I'd not be surprised if Webb is gone until after the All-Star break, at least. Chris Snyder was also a late scratch from the line-up today, due to some back stiffness, but should hopefully be back tomorrow. Scheduled DH Montero took over behind the plate, with Byrnes getting the DH spot instead.

On to Seattle, with this series won - something that looked pretty unlikely after getting shutout in the opener. We'll see what the back-end of our rotation can do against the Mariners.

The Brewers Against Starters Making Their Major League Debut

TheJay — Sat, 23 May 2009 12:36:50 -0000

Anthony Swarzak is scheduled to start for the Twins tonight. Haven't heard of him? That could be because he's never pitched in the majors before. Since joining the National League in 1998, the Brewers have faced eighteen starting pitchers making their major league debut. It's been done before, it never hurts to look again at a rundown of how they did:

Player	Date	Tm	Opp	W/L	Score	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	GmSc
Brian Meadows	4/4/1998	FLA	MIL	L	2-6	3.2	10	6	6	2	3	0	18
Dan Reichert	7/16/1999	KCR	@MIL	W	12-10	1.2	5	7	7	4	1	0	14
Buddy Carlyle	8/29/1999	SDP	MIL	W	5-4	7	2	4	1	2	5	1	66
Brian O'Connor	5/13/2000	PIT	MIL	W	11-8	2	7	6	6	2	0	1	16
Adam Eaton	5/30/2000	SDP	MIL	W	6-3	5.1	5	3	3	2	4	1	48
Jose Acevedo	6/19/2001	CIN	MIL	L	8-10	4	4	6	6	2	4	3	32
Carlos Zambrano	8/20/2001	CHC	MIL	L	2-10	4	4	7	7	4	3	1	25
Juan Cruz	8/21/2001	CHC	MIL	L	1-3	6	3	2	2	1	8	0	65
Josh Pearce	4/20/2002	STL	@MIL	L	3-5	4.2	6	3	3	3	0	0	37
Nate Teut	5/4/2002	FLA	@MIL	L	4-6	4.1	8	5	5	1	3	0	29
Kirk Saarloos	6/18/2002	HOU	@MIL	L	1-7	4.2	6	6	6	3	4	1	29
Chin-hui Tsao	7/25/2003	COL	MIL	W	7-3	6.1	8	3	3	1	5	2	49
Zach Duke	7/2/2005	PIT	@MIL	L	3-5	7	5	3	3	1	9	1	63
Anthony Reyes	8/9/2005	STL	@MIL	W	5-2	6.1	2	2	2	1	5	1	65
Paul Maholm	8/30/2005	PIT	@MIL	W	6-0	8	4	0	0	3	5	0	76
Boof Bonser	5/21/2006	MIN	@MIL	L	3-5	6	5	1	1	3	8	0	63
Rick VandenHurk	4/10/2007	FLA	MIL	L	2-3	4.2	5	1	1	3	5	0	52
Jonathon Niese	9/2/2008	NYM	@MIL	W	6-5	3	7	5	5	4	2	1	23
All Players	1998-2008	MLB	MIL	8-10	87-95	88.2	96	70	67	42	74	13	43

The won-loss marks and scores are from the perspective of the pitcher's team, so the Brewers have actually gone 10-8 in games started by opposing pitchers making their major league debut. "GmSc" stands for game score, a fun little number that tries to rate the effectiveness of a pitcher's start without getting too complex. The pitcher list contains some eminently forgettable names and some guys who still give the Brewers fits, but taken together, they didn't do well in their first starts:

Here are the rate stats for their 88 2/3 combined innings: 9.74 H/9, 7.11 RA, 6.80 ERA, 4.26 BB/9, 7.51 K/9, 1.32 HR/9

For quick and dirty comparisons' sake, the Brewers have turned starters making their major league debuts into Chan Ho Park with a few more homers. Hopefully they make Swarzak's stats look like Park's 2009 numbers.