SB Nation - Dana Eveland

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 14:22:47 -0000

Jarrod Washburn: 2010 Brewer?

Some things to read while testing the healing powers of bacon.

Jon Heyman is the latest to bring up the possibility that Jarrod Washburn could become a 2010 Brewer (as noted in Rumorville). Al says "he's been solid for far too many seasons to pretend he's not a good pitcher." With that said, he's also 35 years old and coming off surgery.

I'm having a hard time getting off the fence on this possibility. Obviously, Washburn's age and injury status would create the possibility that signing him could turn into a major mistake. With that said, his ERA in Seattle was never over 4.69, and when you adjust that for the NL he could very well be expected to post something in the 4.20-4.40 range next season. Giving him anything more than a two year deal would be a mistake, but to me he's worth considering in the short term.

Meanwhile, Jorge Says No! is still listing the Brewers as one of six teams that could trade for Gary Matthews Jr., but only if the Angels eat most of his salary. Every GM starts the offseason looking for players who are cheap and good: Trading for GMJ with the intent of playing him in center field would mean sacrificing the "good" part to get the "cheap."

Here's an unsubstantiated possibility I'll throw out there: The Mets are reportedly looking for a right-handed platoon partner for Daniel Murphy at first base next season. At first glance, Casey McGehee would make sense, as his versatility would allow him to fill in at other positions when he's not starting at first. Just a thought.

And while I'm out here on the rampant speculation train, View From Bernie's Chalet has a look at one potential Opening Day lineup for the 2011 Brewers. He presents a pretty encouraging possibility: A productive Brewer lineup with all eight position players under 30.

Earlier this week, the Milwaukee chapter of the BBWAA announced their postseason awards, but it's possible they didn't tell the whole story. Miller Park Drunk has the full list of awards presented.

By the way, to answer MPD's question: No, the Milwaukee BBWAA chapter isn't just the three writers from the Journal Sentinel. Six ballots were cast when voting on the awards: One of them was likely AP reporter Colin Fly, and I'm pretty sure the Madison Capital-Times and Racine Journal-Times also have active BBWAA members.

In the minors:

Bernie's Crew has short videos of the deliveries of three of the Brewers' top pitching prospects: Cody Scarpetta, Jake Odorizzi and Wily Peralta, if you haven't seen them before.
Baseball Intellect, at least partially spurred by this Battlekow interview, discusses Evan Anundsen's drop in velocity and the possibility that his high pitch counts in high school are to blame.
Baseball America has a report card for the Brewers' 2009 Draft. It's behind their pay wall, but Rattler Radio has several of the salient points.

Around baseball:

Astros: Outrighted catcher Chris Coste to AAA. Coste will be a minor league free agent.
Braves: Are expected to sign Tim Hudson to a three year contract extension worth $27 million.
Dodgers: Manny Ramirez exercised his $20 million player option to remain with the team next season.
Rays: Outrighted first baseman Chris Richard to AAA, making him a minor league free agent.
Rockies: Reliever Joel Peralta rejected an outright assignment to the minor leagues and will become a free agent.

Yesterday, Roguejim noted MLB Trade Rumors' Bad Contract Swap Meet. That's a good idea, but this one would be better TV: Dave Cameron of FanGraphs proposes the Bad Contract White Elephant. Clearly it's intended to be tongue in cheek, but I'd watch it.

Earlier this week, BCB endorsed the Phillies in the World Series, and we're off to a pretty good start. It appears not everyone got the memo, though: Ryan Grant is rooting for the Yankees.

I don't buy a lot of baseball books, but I gladly shell out the money for John Sickels' Baseball Prospect Book every year. It's easily my top resource for scouting reports on over a thousand prospects and it's great to have on hand when attending spring training or minor league games. I've probably consulted it 30-40 times in my work here during the 2009 season. Sickels is currently accepting pre-orders for the 2010 book, which help pay for its publication. If you're a minor league buff or just want to be one step closer to knowing what you're talking about when discussing prospects, I'd highly recommend picking up a copy.

Speaking of the minors, the Reds' decision to move spring training from Sarasota to Goodyear, Arizona has sent a ripple into the minor leagues: The Reds, who also own their Florida State League affiliate in Sarasota, are selling it to the Pirates, who intend to move it to their spring training facility in Bradenton. So, in one year's time the city of Sarasota may lose both their spring training presence and their FSL team.

On this day in 2002, Ned Yost was hired to manage the Brewers, and Ken Macha was named manager of the A's. We'll have more on Brewer managers later today.

Happy birthday to Dana Eveland, who pitched in 36 games as a Brewer in 2005 and 2006 and turns 26, knuckleballer and 2007 Nashville Sound R.A. Dickey,, who turns 35, and Narciso Elvira, who appeared in four games for the 1990 Brewers and turns 42.

Oh, and if you're feeling nostalgic, this description of Gabe Kapler's play should bring back some memories.

Drink up.

Loss Means Geren Is 86ed For Third Year In A Row

Nico — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 23:04:05 -0000

More photos » by George Nikitin - AP

Gary Matthews Jr. isn't sure whether to accept congratulations from his teammate or worry about what's being put in the LA water to produce these freaks with four-arms.

Browse more photos »

If won/loss percentage told you anything about a manager, we would know that Bob Geren wasn't very good but day-am was he consistent. In Geren's first season, the 2007 A's were 76-86. In 2008, 75-86. In 2009, the A's have achieved 86ness again, 75-86 with one to play.

Dana Eveland started for Oakland (please let this be the last time I ever have to type this. Please, please, please) and speaking of consistent, Eveland consistently pitches really terribly. He keeps the ball in the park, but sadly this is his only attribute as he gives up walks and hits at a frightening pace. Today it was just hits -- 8 of them in 4.2 IP -- as Eveland neither issued a walk nor recorded a strikeout. Eveland was touched for 4 ER -- two in the 2nd, two more in the 4th -- and the A's trailed 4-0 until the 8th.

Oakland started the teAse early, rallying for two in the 8th on an Eric Patterson RBI triple with one out. Then in the "what could have been" moment, Cliff Pennington ripped one down the right field line that either picked up 4 grains of chalk (as Ken Korach suggested could have been the case) or landed three blades foul (Korach's other hypothesis). Pennington struck out on the next pitch -- Rajai Davis doubled to make it 4-2, but the A's could not get any closer.

Davis had two hits to lift his batting average to .306 and ensure a .300+ season unless tomorrow's game goes about 23 innings. John Meloan quietly extended his scoreless string with Oakland to 8.1 IP of 3 hit, 2 BB, 11K bullpen work, and Andrew Bailey tossed another 1-2-3 9th to lower his ERA to 1.86. There's that pesky "86" again.

Tomorrow, the A's try to avoid ending the season with 7 consecutive losses. The starting pitcher may be "the bullpen." Meaningless baseball...gotta love it.

Muppet Thoughts

grover — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 06:30:14 -0000

The minor league season is over and the Arizona Fall League has yet to begin. Baseball America has begun their League Top 20 lists but they haven’t hit anywhere where the A’s have qualifying individuals. Winter ball is months away (although today it seems as if winter itself is close at hand) and the A’s are being their typical tight-lipped selves regarding the goings on in Instructs. So don’t expect much in the way of minor league discussion in today’s write up. What will I talk about?

Glad you asked.

Next year’s Free Agent options, the current 2010 payroll and some interesting service time tidbits, why using FIP or any other metric to argue Cahill’s place in Oakland’s 2010 rotation is missing the point, a moment of praise to Rajai Davis’ base running skills and… I don’t know… whatever I bloody well want.

If that sounds interesting to you then I’ll see you on the flip side.

Let’s talk about money.

Money, money, money, money, money, money.

Let’s face it, we live in a capitalist society and (most of us on AN, anyways) in a country with a WTF?!?! economy that makes risky investments a rather unattractive idea. The San Diego Padres, the Texas Rangers and the Chicago Cubs are just 3 recent examples of how quickly an organization’s financial situation can change. The 2009 A’s opened up the season with a $62.3 million payroll and we know that Wolff and Fisher don’t consider the team to be a public philanthropy. The Oakland A’s are a business, and businessmen expect to turn a profit. It is difficult to turn a profit when you have no customers (I learned that in my college economics class) and the A’s have drawn fewer paying customers than any other team in major league baseball. While revenue sharing and national media deals will provide a solid chunk of money for 2010 the A’s do not draw a great deal of income through local TV or stadium licensing, meaning the loss of approximately a quarter million attendees could have an impact on the amount of money the A’s have to spend on player payroll in 2010.

Looking at the current roster and trying to anticipate the arbitration cases of 8 different players, it appears to me that the A’s have $38 million committed in salary to next year’s roster. (Keep in mind that I’ve tried to pad that figure, ‘cause it’s always easier to pocket any left over cash than it is to find more cash when the bills are due. Also, I’ve got a bit of a thing for round numbers and counting by quarters.) Let’s look at those arbitration eligible players. Eric Munson and Edgar Gonzalez might be best described as fringe level big league players, but the only way the A’s could insure that they could retain their services for next season would be to offer them arbitration. Otherwise, the A’s would need to release them and try to bid for their services as free agents. I think that is the more likely scenario, as the A’s should be more interested in finding cheap vets they can sign to minor league deals than in keeping replacement-level talent at inflated rates.

Santiago Casilla is eligible for arbitration for the first time but the combination of his injuries, his ineffectiveness and the depth of power RH arms in the A’s farm system leads me to believe that AKA Jairo Garcia will be moving on to another team. Joey Devine is coming back from season ending elbow surgery and that will probably keep his 2010 salary down, although I am still penciling in a raise to $750K. Michael Wuertz is due a huge pay bump, at least doubling his $1.1 million 2009 salary. He didn’t get many opportunities to close and arbiters tend to be distracted by shiny things like saves, so I’m figuring he’ll earn a $2.5 million salary for next year. Before I move on to the arby-eligible hitters, I want to point out that Dana Eveland is no longer looking at arbitration for next season. His early season demotion hit his service time tally very hard and he simply doesn’t have the days in to qualify for arbitration. This means the A’s have the option to bring Eveland back at $420K next season. The only downside is it looks like (assuming I’ve counted things right) that the A’s used Eveland’s last option in 2009 and if he doesn’t pitch well enough to make the Opening Day big league roster next year the A’s would have to expose him to waivers before they could send him to the minors. Which wouldn’t be a great loss, but it is a factor to consider before deciding to invest the time and effort in giving Eveland another chance next Spring. Perhaps the coaching and innings would be better served going to another option?

Scott Hairston hasn’t performed like the A’s had hoped since they acquired him from the Padres but his early season numbers will insure a pay increase for next season. I think his late season injuries and his struggling 2nd half performance will prevent him from doubling his salary but I can see him collecting $2 million next year. Rajai Davis has only a half season of excellence to make him some money and I don’t think that UZR gets factored into the arbitration process but 40 SB is sexy and shiny. I expect Davis to more than quadruple his 2009 salary and earn a $1.75 million payday. Jack Cust leads the A’s in HR and BB but also in K’s and is a distant 2nd in RBI. UZR might not factor in the decision making process but general defensive suckitude does. I think Cust goes from $2.8 million to $4.25 million next season, although I wouldn’t blink twice if that figure went up another half million. But my official guess is 4 and a quarter.

Altogether, a $38 million commitment to the 2010 payroll.

That means the A’s have some spending money next year. But where to spend it and how much is there to spend? I doubt the A’s are going to bump the payroll beyond the $62.3 million figure from 2009 and in fact I expect to see it drop by roughly $10 million. Where am I getting that low-50’s number? Call it a gut reaction to the state of the team and the AL West, plus the lack of intriguing free agent options. The A’s are looking at a serious influx of position talent by the end of next season and it seems unlikely that the team would invest heavily in free agent vets that could potentially block the young talent and/or become expensive bench options. There are obvious holes in the roster but little in the way of value to be had in the current free agent crop.

One of the places where a major investment and change would be welcomed (by the fans, anyway) is at 3rd base. Eric Chavez is in the last guaranteed year of his contract and has barely made it on to the field over the last 3 years. There are at least 4 credible options on the free agent market that could give the A’s an immediate boost at the hot corner. Troy Glaus, Mark DeRosa, Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins all offer the right mix of offense and defense that teams demand at 3rd base these days. DeRosa offers some defensive versatility and enough bat that his team will be looking to find a place to play him. The downside to DeRosa is he’s a Type A free agent and he turns 35 next February, meaning his decline could come swift and soon. Glaus is coming off a shoulder injury but should be ready to go next Spring and at 33 might be looking for a 1 year deal to re-establish himself before going for 1 last big payday. He’s got enough glove to handle 3rd base should Chavez be unable to make it onto the field and his bat would play well at 1st base in the unlikely scenario that Chavez is healthy.

Figgins is intriguing because of his versatility and out of all the big ticket 3rd base options he’s actually healthy! He’ll be 32 next season and is probably looking for a 4 year deal. The cool thing about Figgins is you don’t have to worry about him blocking some stud prospect’s path, he’s got the athleticism and experience to play almost anywhere on the field. The downside is he’s a Type A free agent (yeah, me loving that 2nd round pick) and his name has been mentioned with so many teams that if even half of them are truly interested in him the A’s would be in a bidding war to land him. Beltre is battling injuries this year but he doesn’t turn 31 until the beginning of next season. Still, he picked a bad year to hit like crap. His glove is still top notch but the reality is the A’s gave up on Jack Hannahan (a quality defender at 3rd base and according to UZR a near equal to Beltre) to keep Adam Kennedy’s bat in the line-up. It’s going to take at least a 3 year deal to land Beltre (I’m guessing 3/$27 million but I could be way off) and when you think about it, the A’s would be paying all that cash for Beltre’s bat. Another thing to consider, if you believe in Brett Wallace the 3rd baseman at all, signing Beltre creates a problem. Adrian earns most of his value via the glove; his bat doesn’t play well at 1st base. You could, of course, slide Wallace to 1st base but that defeats the whole idea of him playing at the hot corner. You better decide where Brett Wallace fits in the field before paying Adrian Beltre serious coin.

There are a couple other 3rd base options that get brought up around AN on occasion. Adam Kennedy made a decent stop gap option at 3rd base this season and the A’s have already said they’d consider bringing him back. Akinori Iwamura is one of those under-rated gems that everyone knows about and thus the pursuit will resemble a piranha feeding frenzy. Joe Crede is on his way out of Minnesota but he’ll be 32 and is heading towards his 2nd back surgery and are you out of your fucking mind?! 32 and double back surgery describes Eric Chavez, that’s not a pairing we should wish the A’s to make.

If the A’s are looking to make a free agent splash, the value looks to be in the starting pitching ranks. If the D’backs decide to bid bon voyage to Brandon Webb I say the A’s need to go all in and offer him a big money deal to bring him to Oakland. Yes, he hurt his shoulder and missed almost the entire season but there was no damage to the labrum and forget about any loss of awesomeness due to changing leagues… his groundball and strike out tendencies will play well in the AL. Barring that admittedly less-than-likely scenario, Justin Duchscherer and Brett Myers might make great candidates for 1 year deals to re-establish themselves in 2010. I mean no disrespect when I say that Duke needs to get his head on straight before trying to pitch again next season. They have said they’d be interested in bringing him back next season but the onus is on Justin getting his life in order. Myers needs to get healthy and I’m guessing a change of scenery would do him good. At 29 he’s still young enough to have more than a few solid seasons if he can get his act together.

But do the A’s really need to invest potentially limited funds into the starting rotation? I mean, adding a healthy Brandon Webb is pretty much a no-brainer, especially if you can get him for a discounted rate and not the $20+ million annual C.C. Sabathia is getting from the Yankees. The answer seems to lie in how you feel about Trevor Cahill. If you hear his name and think rainbows and puppies than you’re probably disinclined to spend free agent dollars on a big ticket pitcher. If hearing "Cahill" causes you to grind your teeth than you’re probably wondering why I didn’t list Jason Marquis as a viable free agent option. Me? I think puppies.

I’ve heard the arguments for sending Cahill down to AAA to start next season. I personally feel that the best place for Cahill to work on his breaking stuff is at the big league level, however if the coaching staff disagrees then I’m more than happy to yield to their wisdom. But I’m willing to bet Curt Young isn’t spending his time on AN arguing about how Trevor Cahill needs AAA seasoning. The principle argument on AN in demoting Cahill centers around his FIP (or tRA but either number will do) courtesy of Fangraphs. FIP, for those who have ignored this discussion so far but are now drawn in by my dulcet tones, is essentially what we could expect the pitcher’s ERA to be if we could factor out team defense. Fangraphs lists 77 starting pitchers as throwing enough innings/pitching enough games to qualify for their statistical leader board. Hit the button to compare FIP and proceed to the last page, ‘cause as of 9/22 Trevor Cahill ranked last in baseball with a FIP of 5.30.

It’s a fairly simple logic stream. You’ve got a young pitcher whom we all knew was being rushed posting the worst luck-independent numbers in baseball. Why waste his service time watching him get his butt kicked when we can send him down to AAA where he belongs? My problem with that logic is, that while Cahill’s FIP score is an accurate interpretation of his 2009 season performance it doesn’t actually reflect how well he pitched this year. We knew that there were going to be days when Cahill was going to get his head handed to him on a platter. The guy had barely any experience outside of A-ball and his mechanics where inconsistent. His minor league performance carried indicators (BB/9 rate) that his game needed more polish. We knew all this and still the A’s put him on their 2009 Opening Day roster.

So why are folks so intent on punishing Cahill for living up to our expectations? I looked at the box scores of the 30 games Cahill had pitched in this season, and in 9 of those contests he either allowed 5 or more runs (earned/unearned, doesn’t matter on the scoreboard) and/or failed to pitch a full 5 innings. I don’t care what metric you choose to believe in, there isn’t a baseball fan among us who wouldn’t say that those games represent a failure on the part of the pitcher in giving his team a chance to win. Cahill earned his bottom feeding FIP in those 9 games. When you look at his record of performance you see a wide variation in outcomes and all FIP does is draw a line and say "this is the average outcome". And there’s nothing wrong with that except that it doesn’t provide a full, detailed picture of what Cahill did this season. So I asked a second question: How good did Trevor Cahill pitch this year?

Unfortunately, before I could answer my question I had to figure out how I was going to answer my question! A few years back someone (I don’t care whom) started talking about Quality Starts. The basic premise was a SP got credited with a QS anytime he lasted a minimum of 6 IP and gave up no more than 3 ER. This would help balance out those days when a pitcher just got crushed and his numbers would (unfairly?, undeservedly?) drag down his overall line. I don’t know if this was in response to Coors Field or maybe because it was the Steroid era, but while the basic idea had some merit the parameters sucked. 3 ER in 6 IP? That’s a 4.50 ERA, not exactly what I call quality from my SP.

So I decided to apply the same basic concept to the 77 SP on Fangraphs’ leader board pages, only this time I made the rules more strict. No more than 2 runs (earned/unearned count the same on the scoreboard) over a minimum of 6 IP. Then I decided to add an extra tier, so 3 runs allowed over a minimum of 7 full IP would also count on the Good side. Then I went over the game logs of every qualifying SP (further explaining the 9/22 cut-off date) and simply added up how many HQS (High Quality Starts… yeah, I expect a point deduction from the Russian judge for my lack of creativity) to see how well Mr. Worst-FIP-in-Baseball pitched.

Trevor Cahill pitched 14 HQS, tying him with 8 other SP including Cole Hamels, John Lackey, Scott Feldman and Yovani Gallardo.

14 HQS is also higher score than the performances from Andy Pettite, Barry Zito, Brett Anderson, Carlos Zambrano, Clayton Kershaw, James Shields, Rich Porcello, Roy Oswalt and 18 other big league SP who posted better FIP than Trevor Cahill.

I am not saying that this means Trevor Cahill is a better pitcher than all these guys. I am saying that on the days when Cahill’s talent outweighed his inexperience he pitched like a legitimate big league SP. And here’s the thing about inexperience, it goes away after a time. The 174 (and counting) IP that Cahill has accumulated this year with the A’s has been an invaluable learning experience for him and it should make him less prone to the epic disasters he created 9 times as a raw and unready rookie. Trevor Cahill is far from a finished project and it may be that next year the A’s will decide that the best place for him to work on his breaking ball or his mechanics or his interview clichés is in Sacramento and I’ll be fine with that.

But don’t tell me his FIP dictates the A’s purchase his bus ticket 6 months in advance.

One last things as this post has gone far longer than I intended… I mentioned this in another thread but I feel it bears repeating. With a little over half-a-season’s worth of playing time Bill James ranks Rajai Davis as the 4th best base runner in all of baseball. This is counting Davis’ stolen base and base running performance, and on a team lacking in power those skills are very important (even in a non-starting role) to help create runs.

Alright, I’ve rattled on long enough. Sorry for the lateness of today’s Front Page write up but folks seemed to be enjoying the Davis and Holliday themed articles already up. Besides, you can’t rush greatness.

Or in my case… my typing.

And thank you for your support.

Holy Toledo! Down 9-2, The Amazing A's Come Back To Win Crazy Game 15-10

Nico — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 05:11:27 -0000

That headline changed about seven times throughout the course of this bizarre, often frustrating, ultimately exhilarating mess of a game. Walk with me down memory lane...

Taking things in chronological order, I have to start by saying that Dana Eveland is truly terrible at baseball. He may be good at other things -- basket-weaving, photography, goatherding -- but pitching? He's just not good at it. And tonight, after being staked to a 2-0 lead on Kurt Suzuki's 1st inning HR, Eveland should have been staked to something so he couldn't go to the mound. His defense didn't help and the umpires didn't help, but still...He's just bad, and by the 4th inning Eveland was gone and the Angels led 9-2.

The next thing you need to know is that these umpires are really bad at seeing. In the bottom of the 1st, second base umpire Greg Gibson decided that Cliff Pennington had missed 2B on a 4-6-3 DP attempt in which both runners were called safe. It's called the "neighborhood play" and to call otherwise was arguably somewhere between the worst call of the season and the 2nd worst call of the evening. Vying for that honor was Pennington being called out at the plate in the 2nd when he tried to dash home on a missed cutoff throw and replays showed that he was safe.

Anyhoo, all water under the bridge because the A's, buoyed by Jack Cust's 3-run HR, 3 more hits from Kennedy, 4 hits from the red-hot Daric Barton, a 6 run 7th inning capped by Mark Ellis' 3-run bomb, and 19 hits overall, came roaring back to win their 16th out of 20 -- and serve notice to the Angels that 2010 is not decided just yet.

Did Fausto Carmona Run Over God's Puppy?

Nico — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 23:26:17 -0000

More photos » by Dino Vournas - AP

Fausto Carmona promises God he'll drive more carefully in the future.

Browse more photos »

Today's game was essentially decided in the bottom of the 2nd inning, when the A's scored 5 times off of Fausto Carmona and never looked back. With a name like Fausto, you have to wonder about sold souls and such, or perhaps my puppy theory has some validity. How else do you explain a pitcher getting high pop fly after high pop fly, only to have one after the other fall into a Bermuda Triangle of "lack of Indianness" -- with one actually clanking off the glove of Trevor Crowe for an error? (If his routes are "as the crow flies," then crows seriously need to lay off the liquor.)

Dana Eveland wobbled a bit, per always, but turned in a solid enough 5 innings of 1 run ball, while the A's picked up where they left off -- and finally actually hit the ball hard off Carmona -- in the 6th inning and finished with a 15-hit attack that included two more hits by "I'm a fluke but I'm also good" Rajai Davis and a 3-hit game by Adam Kennedy that included his 11th HR.

A few more thoughts, "Potpourri style"...

* Travis Hafner's bat looks slow. He seemed to be slapping at the ball just trying to hit it to the left side -- when he didn't swing late and miss completely. Between Carmona (3-12) and Hafner, the Indians may have two highly paid albatrosses on their hands. Remember, A's fans, it could be worse and usually is if you look around the league at other non big-market clubs.

* On the A's radio broadcast, Ken has been talking about Jim Skaalan's work with Cliff Pennington, getting him to turn on inside pitches. We saw a specific example of this today when Pennington pulled a double one-hop off the RF wall. One reason I think Skaalan is the best hitting coach the A's have had in years is that when we hear about specific work he is doing with a player (a toe-tap timing device, turning on inside pitches, a slight change in stance or approach), we tend to see results soon after that relate directly to what has been worked on. That's a good sign, and in this case gives at least a glimmer of hope that Pennington may be able to improve a bit upon his low slugging percentage in the minors.

* It will never happen. It just won't, burned bridges being what they are. But if the Cubs release Milton Bradley (who is now suspended for the rest of the season for trashing the Cubs in a media interview), any team will have the chance to pick up Bradley for two years while the Cubs pay his salary sans the major league minimum. Insta-clean up hitter at league minimum; kind of a Frank Thomas like opportunity. You'll never see this, but could the A's contend in 2010 if they could insert Bradley -- while paying him the same salary they're paying Pennington -- into the OF, platoon Sweeney and Hairston, and put this lineup out there?

Davis - CF
Cust - DH
Sweeney/Hairston - RF/LF
Bradley - LF/RF
Suzuki - C
Chavez --> Wallace - 3B
Ellis - 2B
Barton - 1B
Pennington - SS

Ah, Milty. Sigh.

Could it be...? No, it can't be... OMG it really is! It's a Minor League Update!!!

grover — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 13:00:25 -0000

Hello again.

Work called me away for a while and it’s been tough getting back into the groove of things. For those who don’t know, I’m a wildland fire fighter and August got a little busy for those in my career field. So when I disappear again for a couple weeks just remember… I envy your access to in-door plumbing.

Anyways, I want to focus this week’s minor league update on the 40 man roster and the options that are going to have to be decided upon in the coming months. Why do this now instead of waiting until September 1st? The topic tickles my fancy, that’s why. As I seem to have (once again) misplaced my Cap o’ Omnipotence I’m forced to resort to basic logic and common sense reckoning to try and deduce the future roster.

That’s right… none of what I’m about to tell you is guaranteed!

The way I see it, there are 28-29 spots on the future 40 man roster all but guaranteed. On the pitching side, Brett Anderson, Andrew Bailey, Jerry Blevins, Dallas Braden, Craig Breslow, Trevor Cahill, Joey Devine, Gio Gonzalez, Jeff Gray, Jay Marshall, Vin Mazzaro, Clayton Mortensen, Josh Outman, Henry Rodriguez, Michael Wuertz and Brad Ziegler all seem certain to have jobs in the Oakland organization next year. That’s 16 pitchers of varying combinations of success/cheapness/options that aren’t going to be released just to make room on the roster. (There’s a pretty good chance that Outman will open next season on the 60-day DL, opening up an additional spot on the 40 man.) Santiago Casilla and Edgar Gonzalez are both arbitration eligible next season but neither pitched so well that the A’s are going to be eager to give them big pay raises, which could mean either or both players could end up as trade fodder or possibly even released. Dana Eveland is still on the 40 man roster as well, but his poor performance led to a demotion that will keep him from seeing any arby money next season. Unfortunately, Mr. Eveland’s suckitude forced the A’s to use his last option this season; meaning he can’t be stashed on Sacramento’s roster next season without first passing through waivers. Chances are Eveland isn’t going to be one of the 5 best SP candidates for the A’s come Opening Day 2010 and as a lefty with a pulse he’d probably get snapped up by some other team desperate for pitching. Therefore, I think this is good-bye to Mr. Eveland.

As it just so happens, it looks as if the A’s are going to need maybe 3 openings on the 40 man roster just to protect some arms that should attract a lot of interest in the Rule 5 draft. Pedro Figueroa hasn’t advanced past High-A ball but he’s a lefty with a low-90’s fastball. Brad Kilby is another lefty who’s put up back-to-back quality campaigns in Sacramento’s bullpen. Fautino De Los Santos is still trying to bounce back from 2008 TJ surgery but he wouldn’t last long if the A’s made him available for the Rule 5 draft. Jason Ray is in the same boat but I don’t think there’s much risk of someone grabbing him and keeping him on a 25 man roster all season.

There’s also a chance the A’s might be interested in bringing back Brett Tomko or Justin Duchscherer next season. Dan Giese should be fully recovered in time for next season; maybe the A’s are still interested in him as a swing man type. Plus, guys like Sam Demel and James Simmons could be knocking on the door next season and they’d need a spot on the 40 man to do so. Like I said, I could see 3-4 spots going to the guys I just listed and we haven’t even looked outside the organization to find help.

The hitting side of things is even more in flux.

Kurt Suzuki, Landon Powell, Eric Chavez (who?) Mark Ellis, Daric Barton, Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham, Rajai Davis, Scott Hairston, Ryan Sweeney, Jack Cust, Tommy Everidge, Cliff Pennington and Gregorio Petit have spots on the 40 man roster. (Although I’m not sure if Petit has another minor league option available to him in 2010… if someone has a conclusive answer I’d appreciate hearing it.) C Anthony Recker is the most prominent bat in the A’s system that would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter and I’m not sure if the A’s would consider his departure to be a great loss. So any Recker fans out there can protect him on their 40 man lists, but I’m thinking the A’s leave him off the protected roster. Chris Denorfia and Eric Patterson are both out of options, so if they aren’t in Oakland come Opening Day there’s a good chance they’ll be playing for another organization in 2010. I can maybe see Patterson as a back-up at 2B and in the outfield but I’ve got to squint and angle my head to one side to see it. I think it’s more likely that the A’s will try to bring back Adam Kennedy to serve as a deluxe back-up option/veteran mentor type.

The real twist comes when you consider the minor league bats that the A’s have in AA or higher that aren’t yet on the 40 man roster. Sean Doolittle, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, Corey Brown, Chris Carter and Brett Wallace highlight the next wave of Oakland offense… which could be much more refreshing than the current ripple in the still waters we’ve experienced as of late. Yet again we haven’t looked outside the current organization to determine if maybe there’s another bat to be had.

So bring back Kennedy, add the newbies and you’re looking at 38-39 players on the 40 man roster before the Rule 5 draft. Does anyone see any glaring omissions?

Until the next time...

Prove Us All Wrong, Tomko!

Nico — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 16:27:58 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Scott Podsednik is distracted by seeing the "over/under" on Brett Tomko's earned runs tonight.

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And by that, I mean please last into the 3rd inning and keep the damage to less than 5 runs. This is the post where I hate on Brett Tomko for giving me less confidence than Dana Eveland, Edgar Gonzalez, or Dan Freaking Giese, which is hard to do. But you see, Tomko pitching well is actually slightly less likely than finding a pitcher named Danegardan Evezoliese, and let's face it: That's pretty unlikely.

Here are some things I'd like to see tonight:

1. Edgar Gonzalez getting loose in the bullpen as Tomko takes his warmups on the mound before the top of the 1st.

2. Kurt Suzuki putting down four fingers, Tomko calling him out to the mound to double-check the sign, and Suzuki explaining, "I'm calling for Mazzaro's fastball; you think I'm gonna call for yours?"

3. Suzuki putting down nine fingers, then one finger, then one finger. Where's On-Star when you need them?

4. A Scotsman on a horse.

5. The A's bring the infield in with a runner at 1st and nobody out, "just to get a head start."

I kid, I kid, I kid. Brett Tomko is not a horrible pitcher, he's just incapable of getting hitters out. He feels he didn't get "a fair shot" with the Yankees, because after posting a 5.23 ERA in 15 games, the Yankees wouldn't let him pitch for them any more. Even though last year he had proven himself with a 2-7 record, 6.97 ERA, and WHIP of 1.53 "pitching" for Kansas City. 60.2 IP, 80 hits, 11 of them HRs. Oops. Sounds like a lot of "shots" that stayed "fair," Brett!

What IS impressive about Tomko, in fairness to the guy, is that he's consistent. Here are his ERAs since 1998: 4.44, 4.92, 4.68, 5.19, 4.49, 5.28, 4.04, 4.48, 4.73, 5.80, 4.61, 6.97, 5.23. That's right, one season with an ERA below 4.44. So essentially, any 2-inning period in which Tomko gives up only 1 run means he's "really on his game right now."

What you'll hear scouts say is that Tomko "has a good arm." But no one ever asks the crucial follow-up question: Which arm? Tomko's left arm is like Derek Holland's back: Hubba hubba, folks. Sadly, the right one produces bombs at a rate rivaled only by CBS' comedy department. ("Tonight on The New Adventures Of Old Tomko: Hilarity ensues when the Yankees find themselves with five baserunners but only three bases they're allowed to be on, and Wanda Sykes has plenty to say about it.")

Go get 'em tonight, Brett! We kid because ~~we love~~ we're frightened.

Looking to Refine FIPs with Pitch F/X

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 10:00:16 -0000

FIPs measures 3 factors that totally dependent on the pitcher, strikeouts, walks and home runs. A player's strikeout and base on balls numbers are fairly consistent if a player changes ball parks, but the number of home runs he gives up may change depending on the park. The Hardball Times tracks xFIPs which counts every 11^th (league average) fly ball a home run.

A while back I did a piece on Randy Johnson for Driveline Mechanics and found that Randy was leaving the ball higher in the strike zone than he did previously. Most of the home runs he allows was higher in the zone and this led him giving up more home runs this season..

Putting these two ideas together, I looked to see if a pitcher's home run rate correlates to the number of pitches thrown into the heart of the plate (area where the average home runs is hit from) . First I took at all the Pitch F/X available for 2007 to 2009 (I ran the queries a couple of weeks ago, so the 2009 data is from around July 1^st). I took the normal strike zone of 1.5 to 3.5 vertical and -1.2 to 1.2 horizontally and saw how many pitchers where in this zone and how many home runs were hit. I began to shrink the zone down and noting the percentage of home runs hit from that area until I got the the area where 66% and 50% of the home runs was hit from. The following graphic and chart shows the 3 zones:

	Normal Zone	2/3 Home Run Zone	½ Home Run Zone
Percent of HR hit from Zone	94.90%	66.41%	49.85%
X coordinate	-1.2	-1	-0.86
X coordinate	1.2	1	0.86
Y coordinate	1.5	2	2.14
Y coordinate	3.5	3	2.86
Area of Zone	4.8	2	1.24

After creating the three zones, I looked at the 88 qualified pitchers from 2008.and saw how many home runs they gave up when throwing pitches into these zones. I graphed the percentage of pitches (using zone, not umpire calls) in the zone to the number of home runs to see how well the data correlated as seen in the following graphs (one of the 66% HR zone and one of the 50% HR zone):

There is very little correlation (r-squared of 0.05 and 0.11)

to pitching to the zone where home runs's are given up and actually giving up a home run. A little Master of the Obvious here, but it looks like different pitchers have different abilities. I went on to compare throwing to the heart of the strike zone to the following variables and not one had an r-squared over 0.07: BABIP, GB/FB, LD%, GB%, FB%, HR/FB, HR/9, ERA, FIP.

What I was looking for doesn't seem to simply exist and I have thought of few way to modify search. Since I have the data readily available, here are the 2008 leaders and laggards in Heart Pitches per HR with the average value at 32.1:

Name	Pitches in Heart/HR
Jair Jurrjens	101.7
Jon Lester	96.3
Brandon Webb	86.8
John Danks	86.0
Roy Halladay	80.2
Mike Pelfrey	79.2
Dana Eveland	74.5
Hiroki Kuroda	66.2
Cliff Lee	66.2
Ian Snell	65.5

Todd Wellemeyer	21.1
Paul Byrd	20.7
Tim Wakefield	20.4
Aaron Harang	19.9
Ricky Nolasco	19.7
Vicente Padilla	19.5
Jeff Suppan	19.1
Armando Galarraga	18.6
Scott Olsen	17.5
Brandon Backe	16.4

I didn't find exactly what I was looking for when I began looking at this data. I feel Pitch F/X numbers can be used to help determine the true value of pitchers and batters, but this method does not seem to be one of those cases. I might divide out speed, type and movement of pitch at a later date, but for now I am settled on using FIPs and xFIPs.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:28:19 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

5 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers manager Ken Macha argues with home plate umpire Bill Hohn during the third inning of a baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday, July 7, 2009, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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Some things to read while being three times as cool.

Umpiring issues took center stage last night as the Brewers lost 5-0 to the Cardinals, falling two games back in the Central. Home plate umpire Bill Hohn ejected Dale Sveum and Willie Randolph following their complaints that Hohn was inconsistent in asking for help calling check swings. Perhaps the most vocal criticism of Hohn came from Tom Haudricourt, who tweeted about Hohn no less than six times, including this one:

Hohn's strike 3 call on Hardy was a joke. If these guys really are being graded by QuesTec, he should see how bad that call was.

Umpiring has been under fire a lot this week around baseball, and deservedly so in some cases. However, major league umpires can't be fired for incompetence, leading Matthew Pouliot of Circling the Bases to call the profession "America's Most Secure Job."

Of course, Adam Wainwright was pretty good last night too. He's posted a 0.77 ERA in three starts against the Brewers this season, with 25 strikeouts and just six walks.

Ryan Braun and Doug Melvin met before yesterday's contest to clear the air between the two and hopefully mark the end of the issues between the two. After the meeting, Braun delivered this statement to the media. If nothing else, at least Braun got a new nickname out of the deal. Also, video from his Remetee event at Decibel has hit Youtube.

Meanwhile, Doug Melvin continues to work on making a move:

He freed up a spot on the 40-man roster yesterday, outrighting Joe Koshansky.
As noted in Rumorville, the Brewers reportedly have serious interest in Roy Halladay.
Ken Rosenthal says Javier Vazquez is too valuable to the Braves to be traded for any of the available hitters, including Corey Hart.
Here's one pitcher available for nothing: The A's designated former Brewer farmhand Dana Eveland for assignment yesterday. Eveland may not be the answer in the rotation at this point, but the Brewers have a 40-man roster spot open and Eveland is certainly better than Chris Narveson.

Manny Parra appears to be on his way back to the majors. He's not listed among Nashville's probable starters for this week, and the Brewers have now have "TBA" listed as their starter for Thursday. Jeff Suppan will start today, and Looper, Burns and Gallardo will pitch Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

In today's only minor league story, Dennis Punzel of the Capital Times made the trip up to Grand Chute to see the Timber Rattlers and discuss the massive attendance bump they're seeing since becoming a Brewer affiliate. I'm thinking of going to Monday's afternoon game - anyone interested in doing a BCB meetup?

On Power Rankings and whatnot:

WhatifSports dropped the Brewers seven spots to thirteenth in their rankings.
Inside the Majors dropped the Brewers two spots to #11.
The Ghost of Moonlight Graham ranks the Brewer bullpen as the fourth best in baseball.

Did a pitcher from that Brewer bullpen belong in the All Star Game? Cory Provus makes a case for two snubbed relievers: Trevor Hoffman and Mitch Stetter.

Meanwhile, SportingNews.com ranked every major league ballpark, and put Miller Park 15th, behind Wrigley Field, the new Yankee Stadium and Busch Stadium, among others. (h/t THT)

Around baseball:

Cardinals: Placed Mark DeRosa on the DL with a partial tear of the tendon sheath in his left wrist.
Cubs: Placed Ryan Dempster on the DL with a displaced fracture of his big toe.
Mariners: Placed Mike Sweeney on the DL with back spasms.
Marlins: Are expected to sign Scott Williamson to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Jesus Colome, who had been designated for assignment, cleared waivers and elected to become a free agent.
Padres: Designated Walter Silva for assignment.
Royals: Designated infielder Luis Hernandez for assignment.
Tigers: Designated outfielder Don Kelly for assignment.
White Sox: Acquired reliever Tony Pena from the Diamondbacks for a minor league infielder.

It's been about ten days since the Brewers lost to Giants starter Ryan Sadowski, who was making his major league debut. What we didn't know at the time was the long and winding road Sadowski took to the majors, including brain surgery and having his mom set up meetings with scouts after Sadowski pitched just 6.2 innings in college. The whole story is a great read.

Should baseball consider realignment to even out competitive balance? TangoTiger makes the case for it. It's also worth noting that the disparity between leagues in baseball is not as big as the disparities in the NHL or NFL.

Oh, and happy anniversary to Ben Oglivie, who hit three home runs in the first half of a doubleheader on this day in 1979, and also drove in the winning run in the second game.

Drink up.

Beckett has little trouble with A's as the order of things is restored (Red Sox win)

Flashfire — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 02:34:34 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

Ump Ted Barrett consoles home plate after meanie Scott Hairston, the newest Athletic, stomped on it following his first inning home run. It wouldn't be the last time someone abused the dish but the Red Sox proved to be more cruel to it than the A's on this night.

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If your expectations were low heading into this game with Dana Eveland on the mound for the A's, you probably weren't disappointed too much. That's not to say his outing was good, but he did start off with a 1-2-3 first inning after Scott Hairston put the A's on top 1-0 with a blast to left.

It was all downhill from there for Eveland and the A's.

Second inning: leadoff homer by Jason Bay followed by a double, single and a walk. Only Nick Green's double play, in which Orlando Cabrera tagged Jason Varitek before throwing to first though a run scored, helped keep that inning from being even worse.

Third inning: double and a walk, and though Eveland had a chance to get out of the inning unscathed he lost command before Varitek hit a full-count, two-run, two-out single up the middle to extend the lead to 4-1 before Edgar Gonzalez got Green to fly out.

Josh Beckett cruised until a two-out double by Adam Kennedy plated Ryan Sweeney in the fifth, but Gonzalez gave that run back in the bottom of the sixth, leading to the 5-2 final as the bullpens closed it out. Jonathan Papelbon finished for the save as the rain finally started to fall. Beckett worked into the seventh for the win.

The A's were fortunate to get the complete game from Brett Anderson last night because any way you looked at it the first part of the game was going to be taken up by Eveland and Gonzalez in some way with the rest of the bullpen getting a little action. Eveland was pitching on short rest with Gonzalez ready to take over sooner or later and based on Eveland's line of 2.2 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 BB and 2 K (3.38 WHIP in a small size) and needing 61 pitches to get five more outs after just 10 in the first, he still doesn't inspire much confidence in his ability to get Major League hitters out enough to be a quality pitcher at this level. Granted, he was only brought up because he's on the 40-man roster and they needed someone to try to get through a few innings, but it still wasn't a good performance.

On offense, there wasn't much the A's did all night. Nobody had more than one hit and they only drew one walk against Red Sox pitching. Jason Giambi continues to look overmatched, striking out three times and grounding into a double play as his average dipped to .195. At this point I'm not buying his excuse that he'll heat up when the weather does. There's more going on with him than just cooler temperatures.

One good thing we can say about tomorrow's series finale: the A's won't be trying to avoid being swept!