SB Nation - Doug Slaten

An Optimist's Take on the Nationals' Offseason Doings: Three Reasons the Nats are Heading in the Right Direction

John Quinn — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 19:38:21 -0000

12 days ago: Washington Nationals new catcher Ivan Rodriguez looks on during news conference announcing his signing with the baseball team on Friday, Dec. 11, 2009 at Nationals Park in Washington. The 38-year-old catcher agreed this week to a $6 million, two-year contract (AP Photo/Kevin Wolf)

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To my count, the Nationals have made four major moves in the 2009 offseason: they've signed Doug Slaten from the Diamondbacks, traded for Brian Bruney, signed future hall-of-fame catcher Pudge Rodriguez, and signed Jason Marquis, a former Rockie. But the moves don't stop there -- the Nats are reportedly interested in Texas reliever Eddie Guardado, are still interested in Matt Capps and have shown more interest than most in Aroldis Chapman, who is widely considered the top free agent pitcher this offseason. I am very impressed with what Mike Rizzo has done thus far, and here is why:

1.) He's brought in one of the veteran starters they so desperately needed. Jason Marquis, while far from an ace, is a reliable arm for the top of the rotation and he pushes the Nats' other arms down a rung. The Nationals' ERA for starters was 4.97 last year, good for 27th in the majors. In signing Marquis, Rizzo has knocked a younger pitcher out of the rotation and replaced him with a more reliable, more knowledgeable one.

2.) He's shored up the Nats' leaky bullpen. The Nats' relievers finished dead last with a 5.09 ERA last season, more than a full run above the National League average. The two relievers the Nats have brought in so far have ERAs of 4.27 (Brian Bruney) and 3.68 (Doug Slaten). Along with Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett, the Nationals have the basis of a solid bullpen in 2010. If they are able to sign Matt Capps as well, who has closing experience, things will be very different next year.

More reasons after the jump...

3.) He's bought some catching insurance in Pudge Rodriguez, in case Jesus Flores doesn't work out in 2010 (or ever). The 38-year-old Rodriguez seems to think he's capable of being an everyday player. With a two-year contract, the Nats can take their time in bringing up catching prospect Derek Norris, who finished the 2009 season with single A Hagerstown.

Really, at this point, I like all of the moves that Mike Rizzo has made. Sure, he's paid a little bit more than I would have liked, but when you're at the bottom, you have to pay more to get the players you want. Mike Rizzo has made it clear that he isn't done making moves this offseason, so here's what I'd like to see him do:

1.) Sign another veteran pitcher. Right now, the rotation has only two locks in Marquis and John Lannan, leaving three spots for J.D. Martin, Ross Detwiler, Collin Balester, Garrett Mock, Scott Olsen (thanks Unkle Wheez!) and Craig Stammen to fight over at spring training. Signing another veteran would mean only two of those pitchers (Detwiler and Stammen, I'm looking at you) would be needed in the major league rotation, allowing the rest to further develop in Syracuse or be pushed to the bullpen. The Nationals won't be contenders in 2010, so signing an ace isn't necessary, and the Nats can save some bucks there.

2.) Sign Aroldis Chapman. Mike Rizzo was one of only two GMs to see him pitch, and was the only GM who traveled to see his bullpen session. Rizzo's appearance signals serious interest, or at least curiosity, but Rizzo was impressed when he left, calling Chapman "an extremely talented, athletic left-handed pitcher with a ceiling as high as any current amateur pitcher in the world." At a cost of $15-20 million for four or so years, Chapman is certainly not without risk, but coming off of back-to-back 100 loss seasons, the Nationals are a team that needs to take risks. Signing Chapman would also show once and for all that the Lerners are willing to spend money on their team, as undeserved as that reputation is. With two high upside pitchers locked down in Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman, the Nationals could be contenders sooner rather than later.

I don't see signing a second baseman as a huge priority. If Guzman does in fact move to second, he'll be better off than he was at short, and even then he's only around for one more year. Save the money, spend it on Chapman, and figure something out after 2010. Until Rizzo gives me reason to think otherwise, I'm just going to accept the fact that he knows a lot more than I do, and believe that he's doing the right things.

Farewell: Chad Tracy, Yusmeiro Petit, Doug Slaten, Daniel Cabrera (and maybe Alex Romero and Trent Oeltjen)

Jim McLennan — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:05:45 -0000

More photos » by Rick Scuteri - AP

Chad Tracy gets high fives from Josh Whitesell and Augie Ojeda after hitting a three-run homer against the Pirates in July. Chad's now gone: who else will be left?

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With a hat-tip to Amit for the first news, a flurry of roster moves for the Diamondbacks the morning after the World Series - albeit most of them not entirely unexpected. Chad Tracy had his buyout exercised, while Daniel Cabrera, Trent Oeltjen and Alex Romero were outrighted to Reno. Cabrera has also elected to become a free agent instead, and it's possible Oeltjen and Romero may follow - ladylike weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth to follow. Yusmeiro Petit was picked up off waivers by the Mariners, and Doug Slaten went similarly to the Nationals. The 40-man roster now has five vacant spots left on it, after the moves.

Not really any surprises here. However, I'll write a bit more about these decisions in Saturday's round-up.

Nationals, Mariners claim Diamondbacks pitchers

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:28:54 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

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It didn't take long for Diamondbacks pitchers Doug Slaten and Yusmeiro Petit to be claimed off waivers.

The Nationals were rewarded the claim on Doug Slaten, who hasn't been able to return to 2007 form when he went 3-2 with a 2.72 ERA in 61 appearances. The 29-year old lefty certainly will be a fixture in the Nationals' depleted bullpen next season.

Petit was picked up by the Mariners after going 3-10 with a 5.82 ERA last season. Petit struggled mightily as a starter, but I think he could find some success in a middle relief role.

Does the Arizona bullpen really suck?

Jim McLennan — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

The bullpen in happy times.

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After Friday night's fiasco, in which Schoeneweis and Pena contrived to turn a three-run lead into a deficit while retiring two batters in the eighth, it might not seem like there's any doubt on the matter. Why, yes, they do suck. But it's worth looking into the numbers a little deeper than the purely anecdotal evidence. Every relief corps in the league is going to blow some late leads now and again - as noted at the time, our implosion wasn't even the most extreme of the day, as the Indians bullpen blew a five-run lead after seven frames. They stick in the mind, that's for sure, and this perhaps gives them a perceived commonness beyond the reality.

After the jump, let's delve into the stats and see what we can find... [Note: all figures exclude Saturday and Sunday's games. Since we're supposed to have our Internet moved at some point today, I scheduled this post well in advance, so you'd have something to read on the off-day, even if we were 'off the grid']

The Diamondbacks' bullpen ERA is now 5.07. That's more than a full run worse than the National League average, and ranks 15th in the NL, ahead only of woeful Washington, at 5.43. So the two teams with the worst records have the worst bullpen ERAs, while the best number belongs to Los Angeles, who also have the best record in the majors. Case closed. The bullpen do suck, and are a large part of the season we're last in the division.

Hang on... There's something odd here; despite that ERA, they actually have a winning record, at 10-9. Only nine of the team's 39 losses are credited to them, a number bettered by just four teams in the National League. Now, while wins may be a poor way to judge a pitcher, it seems that losses for a bullpen are of some importance - those indicate games where they took over with a lead or when the score was tied, and yet the opposition ended up victorious. Despite what it feels, that hasn't happened to the Diamondbacks particularly much this year. We have sixteen blown leads, compared to fourteen comeback wins - the major-league average for both is fifteen.

The 2009 bullpen has just not been part of the outcome in very many games: just 19 times. Thus far, relievers have thrown 35% of the innings in the NL, and been involved in 32% of the decisions. Being a little less makes sense, since inertia has to be overcome: in most cases when the starter leaves, unless 'something' happens, they will get the W or L. But in Arizona's case, the bullpen has been involved in 28% of decisions - and usually in a positive way. I also note that last year at this point, they had more losses and a worse overall record, at 7-11.

In contrast, we can look at the rotation, who have gone 19-30, a sharp reverse from the 30-20 record at the same stage in 2008. Now, while some of those have been due to poor run support, the majority of defeats (17) have come when the starter had an ERA on the day above seven, which doesn't seem an acceptable level of performance. Doug Davis has had five such losses, Jon Garland four, and the triple-headed Beast of Webb Replacement "Yusmilly Augucknit", six of those defeats. The impact of our ace's injury bites us once again.

It doesn't seem that our bullpen blows more late-inning leads than most teams either. Here's a chart, which shows the win percentage when leading after each inning, from the first through the eighth. The black line is the MLB overall figure, the Sedona Red one shows the win percentage for the Diamondbacks:

This is interesting data, and shows that from the sixth inning on, the Diamondbacks are losing leads at almost exactly the same rate as an average team in the major-leagues. Specifially, after six, the team that's ahead wins 85.2% of the time; the Diamondbacks 83.3%. When leading after seven, the same numbers are 89.7% and 87.5%; and after the eighth inning, Arizona are actually better. We are 24-1 there, a 96% rate, compared to the MLB average of 95.2%.The only ninth-inning lead we've blown, that actually cost us the game, was the one where San Diego came back from 7-1 down, to tie it in the ninth and win it in ten.

Where the Diamondbacks are much worse at defending leads than average, is when they have an early advantage. It's interesting - and somewhat surprising - to note that overall, a team that has the lead after the first inning already has a 70% chance of being the eventual victor. This is definitely not the case for Arizona, however, who are only 4-8 when they jump ahead in the opening frame. Similarly, even when leading at the end of the fourth, we're barely above .500 at 14-12, compared to the average of 77%. Here are the details of all nine losses credited to the bullpen this season

April 21 vs. COL. Loser: Juan Gutierrez. AZ led after five.
The D-backs had a 6-3 lead into the sixth, but Bobby Korecky, Doug Slaten and Juan Gutierrez combined to allow four runs.
April 30 vs. MIL. Loser: Tom Gordon. AZ led after six.
Max Scherzer threw six shutout innings. Gordon faced five batters, retired one, threw two wild pitches and injured himself. Scott Schoeneweis drove in the go-ahead run with a bases-loaded walk.
May 3 vs. MIL. Loser: Juan Gutierrez. AZ never led.
We came back to tie the game at three by scoring three in the seventh. However, Tony Peña allowed an inherited runner to score in the eighth.
May 7 vs. SDP. Loser: Esmerling Vasquez. AZ never led.
Dan Haren left after six with the game tied at three [we did lead under him, 2-0 and 3-2, but we're talking about the pen here]. David Eckstein had a walk-off single in the tenth.
May 15 vs. ATL. Loser: Tony Peña. AZ never led.
While Arizona tied this up with a Drew homer off the Braves' closer in the top of the ninth, Peña gave up the game-winning sacrifice-fly in the bottom of the inning.
May 25 vs. SDP. Loser: Tony Peña. AZ led after eight.
This was the infamous one mentioned above, where we blew a 7-1 lead, with the Padres scoring five in the eighth, one in the ninth, and a two-run homer in the tenth.
June 2 vs. LAD. Loser: Daniel Schlereth. AZ led after seven.
Another painful loss. 5-1 up going into the eighth, the Dodgers put up a five-spot on Arizona in the bottom half, off Peña and Schlereth, and left us with no real chance to recover.
June 6 vs. SDP. Loser: Daniel Schlereth. AZ led after five.
Scherzer again: five shutout innings and left 2-0 up. Leo Rosales, Schlereth and Clay Zavada combined to allow six runs in the sixth.
June 19 vs. SEA. Loser: Tony Peña. AZ led after seven.
I trust we needn't go into much detail, but for the historical record, Scott Schoeneweis and Peña gave up four in the eighth, to blow a 3-0 lead after seven zeroes from Jon Garland.

It appears, all told, that the bullpen has "cost" the team only six victories, with the other three being level [and so up for grabs] when they entered. Admittedly, this discounts games like the 18-inning contest, where the bullpen was both awful, conceding five runs in the ninth, and brilliant, then no-hitting the Padres for the nine innings which followed that], because the team won in the end. What's interesting - and perhaps magnifies the sense of relief corps suckage - is the scale of the losses. Most of these blown leads weren't close: we've wasted margins of six, five, four and (twice) three runs. It almost seems we are better at defending small leads.

Not that there isn't room for improvement. The main issue for the team, and particularly the bullpen, is allowing too many 'big innings', where we let the opponent put up four, five or even six runs. We lead the league in those, 23 this season. It's the sixth that has proved most troublesome, with five such games - all told, we've conceded 57 runs there, which works out at above 7.5 per nine innings, and is more than in the first and second combined. Even if we don't actually blow the entire lead there, such an implosion will make even a comfortable margin a great deal less secure for the remaining three frames.

A particular area of concern is inherited runners. 42% of them score on the Diamondbacks, most in the league. This would tie in with the big inning: one pitcher can't get it done, so the next has to clean up the mess and fails to do so. Curiously, this aspect of the game has become much worse under AJ Hinch. In the first 29 games, with Melvin in charge, the rate was only 31%, right around league average [32% at the present time]. However, in the 39 Hinch-led games, the number has shot up to an astonishing 51%, and in the 17 games so far this month, it's 60% (twelve of twenty).

Random luck? Poor choice of bullpen pitchers? I leave the interpretation to you, though it'd take more analysis, since situations vary. You can inherit a runner on third with no outs, or one on first with two outs - letting the former come home is a much smaller sin than the latter. Still, particularly bad in this aspect is Zavada, who has somehow managed to maintain a 0.00 ERA, while letting eight of nine inherited runners score. Gutierrez and Jon Rauch are also above 40%; Pena and Schoeneweis are the sole members of the current 'pen below league-average, with the latter only having one outing where he let them score. However, more than three-quarters of his 22 appearances have involved two outs or less, reducing the chance for this to happen.

All told, I'd say the evidence is that the bullpen are indeed significantly worse than average, but do not seem to have had very much impact on the overall won-lost record of the Arizona Diamondbacks. This again may be a result of luck or management - it doesn't matter too much if the bullpen gives up late runs in a blowout game e.g. the two wins over the Royals. There is some data to support this, with opponents hitting .277 off our pitchers when the margin is more than four runs, compared to .264 overall. However, I doubt this conclusion will come as much comfort to Diamondbacks' fans, who will continue to reach for the Rolaids every time a lead is turned over from a starting pitcher.

Poll

What's the main reason for the D-backs' struggles this year?

Poor offense

92 votes

Inconsistent starting pitching

22 votes

Bullpen struggles

149 votes

Bad fundamentals e.g. defense, base-running

33 votes

296 votes | Poll has closed

DBack To The Future - A Minor League Report

paqs — Thu, 21 May 2009 14:36:57 -0000

More photos » by Rick Scuteri - AP

Gerardo Parra has been smoking hot since his promotion from AA. But who will be the next player to follow him to the show?

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As you take your time recovering from an amazing double header (hey, at least you didn't stay up all night to watch it), I'm pleased to bring you a minor league report. It's been a while since the last one, but the minors aren't that interesting when most of your best prospects are already playing in the bigs. In light of that, this might be a bit shorter than usual (on second thought, no it won't). In order to be as short as possible, I'll be using wOBA+ and tRA+ a lot. Basically, they are good true talent measures, and they are normalized (tRA+ and wOBA+ of 100 is league average, 150 is 50% better than league average, etc.). If you need more info, I'll get into it in the comments. I'll start with Reno.

Reno

The Aces are struggling. They are 2-10 in their last 12 games, and 15-24 overall, good for last place. The runs have dried since Whitesell got called up and Murillo got banned for using steroids, and the Aces have scored 5 runs in their last 4 games. Well, Whitesell should be back tonight, hopefully not for long, as I'm sure he can hit major league pitching, 26 at-bats with a BABIP of .150 notwithstanding.

At the plate:

Alex Romero is hitting .318/.387/.450 for a wOBA+ of 111 and I wouldn't mind seeing him come up for a bit. Even if he's as poor as he was for us last year, it'll be a big upgrade over Chris Young.
Chris Roberson is hitting .262/.330/.456 (wOBA+ of 107) and leads the team with 4 home runs.
Luke Carlin (104), John Hester (103), Trent Oeltjen (101), Ruben Gotay (99), Brandon Watson (97) and Rusty Ryal (97) have all been close to league average in wOBA.

On the mound:

Billy Buckner, who will get called up to start for the DBacks tomorrow, has pitched well in his last three starts, allowing 3 earned runs in 16.1 innings with 16 strikeouts and 7 walks to lower his ERA to 3.81 on the year. His tRA+ as a starter is 129, good for 12th in the PCL. Incidentally, the best tRA+ in the league belongs to Evan MacLane, who we traded earlier this season. Let's hope we don't get to regret this.
After a terrible start to the year, our reigning minor league pitcher of the year, Cesar Valdez, was good in his last two starts, allowing 2 earned runs over 11.1 innings. His 5.45 ERA is nothing to write home about, but in an extreme hitters league, he is above average, as his tRA+ (104) shows.
LHP Travis Blackley is showing signs of life since he was shifted to the bullpen, allowing 4 runs in 12 innings, with 12 strikeouts and only two walks.
Tony Barnette (tRA+ of 95), Hector Ambriz (77) and Seth Etherton (68) complete the Reno rotation.
Bobby Korecky (151) and Doug Slaten (147) rank among the league leading bullpen arms in tRA.
Jose Marte (86), Josh Ellis (68), Jon Coutlangus (41) and Abe Woody (35) are varying degrees of terrible.

Mobile

Things are not looking any better in Mobile. Since Parra and Augenstein got promoted, they had a six game losing streak, and their record stands at 22-18, 5 games back of first place. The pitching is still a strength, and as you're about to see, Hankerd is a one man wrecking crew.

At the plate:

OF Cyle Hankerd is not showing any signs of letting up, hitting .358/.429/.533 and his wOBA+ of 129 is 7th in the league and a little bit better than what Parra was doing before his callup. He might actually be the best choice should we send Young down, considering how well Parra has adjusted.
C Orlando Mercado is hitting .307/.386/.427 with a wOBA+ of 113, second in the league among catchers.
3B Ricardo Sosa (109) and OF Chris Rahl (107) have been productive, while James Skelton (93), Evan Frey (92), Mark Hallberg (82), Yunesky Sanchez (81), Pedro Ciriaco (75) and Peter Clifford (64) have been disappointing.

On the mound:

Jarrod Parker has no problems with AA hitters, with a 2.66 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 20.1 IP. His tRA+ of 131 is among the league leaders.
Wes Roemer, who replaced Augenstein in the rotation, has a 2.45 ERA after two starts and a shiny 138 tRA+.
Matt Torra (88), Barry Enright (86) and Cody Evans (52) complete the rotation. Enright actually has an ERA of 3.82, but he's allowed 8 home runs already.
The monster bullpen is led by Dan Stange, who has a 2.95 ERA in 18.1 IP, with 16 K and only 3 BB. His tRA+ of 145 is good for 5th in the league among qualified relievers. Also performing well are Jason Urquidez (3.15 ERA, 20K:6BB in 20 IP, 141 tRA+), Clay Zavada (2.60 ERA, 18K:7BB in 17.1 IP, 128 tRA+) and Scott Maine (2.41 ERA, 20K:6BB in 18.2 IP, 113 tRA+). Dan Schlereth leads the bullpen in ERA with 1.76, but that masks some serious problems with command (10 walks in 15 innings) and his tRA+ is only 99.

Visalia

The Rawhide cooled off significantly after the 10-0, but they still lead the league with a 26-14 record.

At the plate:

Leadoff man Ollie Linton is putting together a good season, hitting .315/.436/.397. He is second in the league with 27 walks and 11th with a 117 wOBA+.
1B/LF Ryne White is hitting .307/.422/.378 with a 114 wOBA+. He also displayed a good eye (22 walks) but has no homers in a power position.
Colin Cowgill leads the team with 5 home runs, and his line is .299/.393/.503 with a 112 wOBA+.
After a slow start to the season, 3B Kyle Greene found his stroke, and he's on a 7 game hitting streak, to push his line to .271/.338/.421 and a wOBA+ of 107.
C/1B Sean Coughlin (.260/.333/.442, wOBA+ of 107) was promoted to AA last week.
Taylor Harbin (wOBA+ of 101), Ed Easley (99), Konrad Schmidt (93) have been close to average, while Elijah Rumler (80) has been poor.

On the mound:

Josh Collmenter somehow has an ERA of 4.58, even though he struck out 37 batters in 37.1 IP, walking only 6. His tRA+ of 143 is second in the league among qualified pitchers.
Pat McAnaney is an interesting case. His ERA (3.82) and FIP (3.54) are good, but his tRA+ is only 94, which suggests he's giving up a lot of well hit balls and benefits from defense and luck.
The rotation is completed by Bryan Shaw (tRA+ of 102) and newcomers Trevor Harden (76) and Cristian Beltre (64), who have made slow starts to their high A campaigns.
The bullpen has been very good, anchored by Jordan Norberto (1.93 ERA, 27K, 9BB in 23.1 IP) who is second in the league with a 170 tRA+. Bryan Henry is 6th in the league with a 139 tRA+ (2.73 ERA, 18:2 K:BB in 26.1 IP). Jorge Perez (113 tRA+), Jeff Dietz (107), Chase Christianson (106) and Leyson Septimo (106) have all performed well in relief.

South Bend

The Hawks are on a five game losing streak that dropped them to 18-20. They lie in fourth position, 8.5 back of the division lead. The pitching is a strong point, and the hitting, well, not so much.

At the plate:

CF Brendan Duffy is hitting really well, his line is .331/.428/.419 and his wOBA+ of 122 is good for 12th in the league for batters with more than 100 PA.
2B Jake Elmore's line is .252/.366/.423 and he leads the team with 20 walks. His wOBA+ is 116.
Jarrod Parker's older brother Justin is hitting .316/.386/.444 with a 115 wOBA+. He hit 3 doubles in a game on Tuesday.
Rossmel Perez (wOBA+ of 108), Alfredo Marte (103), Victor Estevez (98), Reynaldo Navarro (93), Isaias Asencio (88) and Alberto Diaz (87) complete the lineup.

On the mound:

Wade Miley is pitching well, with a 3.92 ERA and 31:7 K:BB in 41.1 IP. He leads the team with a 127 tRA+.
Ryan Cook has not allowed more than 3 runs all year, thanks to a power sinker that gets him a ton of groundballs. He is 5-1 with a 2.85 ERA and a 105 tRA+.
Brett Moorhouse (tRA+ of 90, ERA of 3.77), Sean Morgan (72, 3.42) and Taylor Sinclair (58, 4.22) complete the rotation
The bullpen is led by Terry Hose (tRA+ of 109, ERA of 1.15), Justin Mace (116, 4.15) and Bryan Woodall (112, 5.89)

Diamondbacks 5, Marlins 3: The bliss of ignorance

Jim McLennan — Wed, 20 May 2009 06:13:45 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

Montero discovers that the meaning of "relief pitcher" can vary markedly...

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Record: 15-23. Pace: 64-98. Change on last season: -8. Change on 2004: 0

For reasons that will become clear, I want to start by saying that no cats were harmed in writing this recap. However, there is a certain Zen-like tranquility to be obtained from not knowing the result of the game. The last thing I heard, pretty much, was Hanley Ramirez's sixth inning solo home-run, which broke a scoreless tie to give the Marlins the lead. For I arrived at The Sets to find no Internet connection and the TV tuned to what looked like an NBA playoff game. I can't really blame them for that: watching the Diamondbacks play this season has been a chore more than a pleasure, even for - or especially for? - hardcore fans.

Up until the point where ignorance kicked in, the game had been pretty even, with the weather a merciful non-factor (the third time's the charm, it appears). The Marlins had done a good job of getting their leadoff men aboard: four times in the first five innings, to be exact. However, Jon Garland had done an equally good job of stopping them from going much further. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, had been shut down effectively by John Johnson. While not scoring, they did at least have some early success working the counts, making him throw 57 pitches through three innings. However, they abandoned that approach thereafter, going down quicker than... Well, fill in the appropriate metaphor yourself. Bonus points for not involving Paris Hilton.

But from the Hanley homer on, "The rest, is silence," as Shakespeare once said, and I had absolutely no idea what happened in the game after the Marlins took the lead. Did we win? Did we lose? There was a famous quantum mechanics thought experiment by Erwin Schrödinger, who projected a theory that involved a cat sealed in a box, with a 50/50 chance of a poison capsule being released inside it. He said that, until you opened the box and actually looked, the cat was both dead and alive. That lasted until you opened the box, when it collapsed into either Hello Kitty (probably demanding a cheezburger) or Goodbye Kitty. Similarly for this game: while I didn't know the result, it was neither victory nor defeat, and curiously calming as such. No point worrying about what was already over.

This lasted precisely until Mrs. SnakePit, refusing to participate in my blissful ignorance, looked up the result on her phone. So much for Zen, Schrodinger and their application to Diamondback fandom. Oh, well...

Arizona saved all their offensive energy for a five-run seventh inning, which saw the Diamondbacks come in two runs down, the Marlins having added another run on in the sixth after Ramirez's homer. It started with Mark Reynolds hitting his ninth homer of the season, and ended with a Justin Upton sacrifice fly. In between, we had just about everything imaginable: our team tied the game up on a hit by Felipe Lopez, but the key blow was Gerardo Parra singling to left-center. Thanks in part to an error by Florida's left-fielder on the play, that plated two runs, and also let Parra take second, which subsequently allowed him to score on the sac fly.

Jon Garland pitched six solid innings, with the only damage to his ERA being the homer - the other run being unearned thanks to one of two Arizona errors on the night, both by Eric Byrnes in left-field. Though he did also steal a base, and the Marlins were no better, committing three errors which led to a pair of unearned runs scoring for the Diamondbacks in the fifth. Garland scattered seven hits and one walk, but picked up his team-leading fourth win of the season. Juan Gutierrez did let the Marlins get one closer in the seventh, but the twin late-inning fangs of the Diamondbacks locked things down for us, Tony Pena and Chad Qualls pitching scoreless innings in the eighth and ninth, extending our winning streak to a whole four days. That sounds much better than "two games", let's be honest.

On offense, Parra proved once again the star of the game, getting two hits and a walk - he's now hitting .412 since his promotion from Double-A, and the main question so far is, why the hell did we wait so long? It won't last - of that, there's little doubt - but let's enjoy and take advantage of it for as long as it may continue. It's more than slightly reminiscent of Mark Reynolds' promotion from Double-A in 2007, when like Parra, he came up in May and batted .426. Byrnes also managed a hit and a walk, and Justin Upton was the only starting position player not to reach base safely, one way or another. He also struck out twice, and unlike yesterday's pair, these ones will be part of his permanent record.

Admit it: who was pleasantly surprised by this? Who thought this was over after the Marlins went 2-0 up? Instead, we win again, and I note the following section in Nick Piecoro's recap, presented without further comment: "It seems as though the Diamondbacks have begun to loosen up since the May 7 firing of manager Bob Melvin. Unlike in the days immediately following Melvin's departure, this road trip has seen fewer mental mistakes, no blatant examples of complacency and games that generally have been crisp."

[Click to enlarge, at Fangraphs.com]
Master of his domain: Gerardo Parra, 22.9%
Honorable mention: Eric Byrnes, +12.2%
God-emperor of suck: Justin Upton, -7.7%

A relatively low-key thread: 332 comments, with almost 30% provided by 'Skins - kishi pipped TwinnerA [hope your mom's okay!] for runner-up. Also present in this unexpected groovy treat: sayheyupton, Pyromnc, unnamedDBacksfan, ASUJon, Jim parrotheadkrm, snakecharmer, hotclaws, Xeifrank, luckycc, Wimb, 4 Corners Fan, Snake Bitten, soco, jazzbo13, venomfan, TheDBackFan, Scrbl, and mrssoco. Tomorrow is the double-header caused by Monday's postponement: just a shame I'll be stuck at work almost the entire time. Action starts at 2:10pm Arizona time, with the night-cap following at 5:40pm [note corrections!]: I'm on the afternoon recap, with Azreous taking over in the evening. So there should be something happening here almost the entire day, one way or another. It'd be really nice if we could take both ends.

Piecoro also has some interesting nuggets about pitching. Doug Davis will start the first game tomorrow, with Bryan Augenstein taking part two - that makes sense, since we'll probably see Davis going deeper which will make it easier to manage the bullpen. Speaking of which, one presumes providing some additional depth is also why Josh Whitesell was optioned back to Reno, with Doug Slaten brought up, to give us eight relievers for tomorrow [and perhaps the next couple of days]. I suspect it is only temporary, and I would be surprised to see us pick Whitesell up again on our way to Oakland.

Looking further down the line, Max Scherzer will go for Arizona on Thursday and at the moment, it looks likely that Billy Buckner will be the starter on Friday, with Dan Haren going Saturday on normal rest. Again, that's probably wise, as there's not much point in rushing him back. The opponent for him in Oakland looks likely to be a familar one to Arizona fans - none other than Edgar Gonzalez, dumped by us. Hopefully, he'll be as helpful to our cause as another ex-Diamondback, Emilio Bonifacio, was this evening.

Will a Padre series bring a merry conclusion to April?

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 19:33:54 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

Adrian Gonzalez and those putrid uniforms are next on the docket for the Rockies.

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Rockies fans are feeling glum about the season so far, yesterday aside, and that is understandable. We are about to close out the first month of the season, and Colorado has only pulled out one series win, and that was three weeks ago. To all you whose mood reflects the gray weather, I say:

You better watch out
You better not cry
Better not pout
I'm telling you why
San Diego's coming to town

That probably seems silly, seeing as how the Padres are far enough ahead that we can't leapfrog them even with a sweep. But I assure you for this series, I know if they've been bad or good, and we'll be good for goodness sake.

San Diego Padres (10-8, L2, 2nd in NL West)

Monday-Wednesday : 3-game series at Colorado

The Padres were the surprise team in MLB to start the season, but their slide back to earth has already commenced. San Diego is losers of five of their last six with their only win being a one-run extra inning affair with the Pirates.

The most intriguing aspect of this series is complete opposite recipes for wins and losses for Colorado and San Diego.

	Games Decided by 2 or less	Games Decided by 3 or more
San Diego	6-2	4-6
Colorado	0-6	6-5

This not only suggests we need to beat them up early, it leads to an overall interesting conclusion: With a -10 run differential, the Padres have a worse Pythagorean expected win percentage than the Rockies. In fact, one would expect the Padres to be fourth in the NL West with the Rockies second.

So are the Pads lucky? A bit, but a lot of credit must go to Heath Bell, who is doing his best Brad Lidge impression by getting seven saves in seven chances and allowing just three hits and no runs in 7.2 IP.

Still, San Diego can't sustain a winning record, as their pitching overall is middle of the pack (14th) and their offense is 22nd. Add to that that 3/5 of their rotation is now on the DL (Shawn Hill, Cha Seung Baek and Walter Silva), and you have a recipe for a team to continue to settle towards the bottom.

San Diego is 4-4 on the road, with all four wins coming on a trip to Philadelphia and New York against teams that struggled out of the gate.

Probable Pitchers:

Today, 6:40pm MDT

Chris Young has been the brightest starter so far for San Diego. The Padres are 3-1 in his starts this season, with the only loss coming in his best start, when he allowed no runs on two hits in 7.0 IP at San Francisco. Garrett Atkins is 7-for-25 with 3 HR in his career against Young.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Chris Young	2-0	3.42	1.18	17	8

Jason Hammel will make his debut as a Rockies and NL starter tonight. After a nervous debut out of the pen, he has looked outstanding in allowing no runs on two hits in his last four innings. Jason Marquis' start yesterday afforded the bullpen rest, so should Hammel falter, a safety net is in place. Kevin Kouzmanoff is the only Padre to face Hammel, and he collected a double in three ABs.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jason Hammel	0-0	2.70	1.35	5	2

Tuesday, April 28, 6:40pm MDT

Josh Geer will be making his second start this season. His debut was a beauty against the World Champs April 19, but he faltered when he relieved injured Shawn Hill against Pittsburgh. Geer allowed just 3 runs in 10 innings in two appearanced vs Colorado in 2008.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Josh Geer	0-0	4.91	1.18	5	0

Jorge de la Rosa had a streak of nine straight scoreless innings break in his last start against Arizona, but he is nevertheless coming off of two strong outings despite not having his best stuff. He allowed 6 runs in 7.1 IP against the Padres last year, with both appearances at Coors Field.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	0-2	3.78	1.62	14	10

Wednesday, April 29, 1:10pm MDT

Kevin Correia has three starts and all of them very similar: 5-6 IP, 2-3 ER, 2-4 BB, and 3-5 K's on 95-98 pitches. His game scores have been between 48 and 51, so he has been the model of consistency and mediocrity. He is 2-1 with a 4.60 ERA since 2006 vs Colorado. Consistent, mediocre and boring.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Kevin Correia	0-1	4.50	1.44	13	10

We all know about Aaron Cook. The "Ace" has yet to achieve a game score as high as Correia's worst start despite having two "quality starts." Cook's "best" starts of the season have come at home, so we'll see.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Aaron Cook	0-1	8.35	2.13	10	10

Adrian Gonzalez was 8-for-22 with 2 HR last week to continue a strong start, while Scott Hairston is 5 for his last 12 with a double and a triple. Heath Bell pitched another scoreless inning (of course).

Jody Gerut was just 1-for-17 last week while Nick Hundley was 1-for-13. Kevin Correia, Eulogio de la Cruz, Luis Perdomo, Jake Peavy, Cla Meredith, Josh Geer, and Shawn Hill all had ERAs over 5.00 last week.

Cha Seung Baek, Shawn Hill and Walter Silva are all on the 15-day DL, while Everth Cabrera is out for two months with a broken left hand. SS Luis Rodriguez was admitted to the hospital with an allergic reaction Saturday, but he has been released and cleared to play.

NL West Report after the jump

NL West Report

Arizona (7-11, 4th, W1)

Last Week: 2-1 vs Rockies, 1-2 vs. Giants. After rebounding against the struggling Rockies, the D-Backs were nearly swept at home by San Fran before they eeked out a walkoff win in the 12th inning yesterday

This Week: 3 game home series vs. Cubs, 4 game road series at Brewers. The week's schedule isn't kind for Arizona, but they will have Dan Haren pitching twice, including today.

News: Terrible news came down Saturday for Diamondbacks fans, as ace Brandon Webb will be forced to miss an additional six weeks with a shoulder injury.

Brandon Webb

#17 / Pitcher / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-2

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: May 09, 1979

Missing Webb for well over a third of the season will be a difficult obstacle to overcome - since the start of 2007, Arizona is only 132-141 in games not started by Webb. Diamondbacks beat writer Nick Piecolo already suspects Arizona might be sellers at the trade deadline.

Shortstop Stephen Drew finally landed on the 15-day DL after the original injury eight days prior. Drew was completely ineffective in his attempts to return to the lineup Wednesday and Friday.

Arizona called up former Sky Sox IF Josh Wilson to take Drew's place and swapped Doug Slaten for Esmerling Vasquez.

Tom Gordon could also be activated today.

Arizona Diamondbacks Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Tom Gordon	elbow	04/27/2009
Stephen Drew	hamstring	04/25/2009
Brandon Webb	shoulder	04/07/2009

Los Angeles (13-6, 1st, L1)

Last Week: 1-2 at Astros, 2-1 at Rockies. Los Angeles failed to have a winning week for the first time this season. The red hot start was clearly cooled by hitting the road as evidenced by nearly getting swept by Houston and being outscored by four at Coors Field.

This Week: 3 game road series at Giants, 4 game home series vs Padres.

News: Another NL West Opening Day starter is having trouble in trying to get back to the mound. Hiroki Kuroda felt increased tightness in his oblique after a bullpen session.

Hiroki Kuroda

#18 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Feb 10, 1975

Kuroda wouldn't call it a setback, citing that it felt better the next day, but any lingering tightness could spell future doom. He is on the DL indefinitely, as he will need several rehab starts once he is finally cleared to start.

Kuroda's absence brightens the limelight on the back of the rotation, James McDonald specifically. As Eric Stephen points out, McDonald has been fantastic to start games but falls apart after a few innings. This in part led to speculation that McDonald could slide to the bullpen in favor of Ramon Troncoso, but for now, McDonald remains in the rotation.

This would seem to imply that the Dodgers could sign Pedro Martinez, but

Ned Colletti thinks the price is too high.

Los Angeles Dodgers Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Doug Mientkiewicz	shoulder	04/17/2009
Jason Schmidt	shoulder	03/30/2009
Hiroki Kuroda	oblique	04/07/2009
Cory Wade	shoulder	04/12/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Claudio Vargas	elbow	04/05/2009

San Diego (10-8, 2nd, L2)

Last Week: 0-2 at Giants, 1-2 vs Pirates. Monday's game at the Phillies was postponed due to weather.

This Week: 3 game series at Rockies, 4 game series at Dodgers. The fall for grace is likely to complete this week after road series at the win-starved Rockies and division leading Dodgers, who are undefeated at Dodgers Stadium.

News: Everth Cabrera was hit by a pitch and broke a bone in his hand eight days ago. Cabrera will miss two months, so the Padres shook the foundations of the NL West by reacquiring Chris Burke.

Having three starting pitchers on the disabled list might make some GMs panic into acquiring a pitcher, but Kevin Towers will stick with internal options. Recently acquired Chad Gaudin will be brought up today, and he is a candidate to fill Thursday's opening in the rotation.

San Diego Padres Injuries

Questionable

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Luis Rodriguez	other-excused	04/27/2009

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Shawn Hill	elbow	04/26/2009
Cha Seung Baek	forearm	03/30/2009
Walter Silva	forearm	04/14/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Mark Worrell	elbow	03/27/2009
Mike Adams	shoulder	03/27/2009
Everth Cabrera	hand	04/20/2009

San Francisco (8-9, 3rd, L1)

Last Week: 2-0 vs Padres, 2-1 vs Diamondbacks. The Giants are the NL West's hottest team, having won five of six.

This Week: 3 game home series vs Dodgers, 3 game home series vs Rockies. The Giants are in a good place, having allowed the third least runs in MLB, surprisingly behind Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Another good week in the division will go a long way in rebounding from their 2-7 start.

News: Chris Haft points out that the limit on walks have helped the pitching staff excel so far. He also features Fred Lewis as a potential All-Star. He has had a nice season, but seriously, don't pull out the comparison to Barry Bonds. That's just foolish.

Fred Lewis

#14 / Left Field / San Francisco Giants

Height: 6-2

Weight: 200

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Dec 09, 1980

There's a nice article about former Rockie Jeremy Affleldt being the first pro athlete to join Not For Sale, a foundation created to combat human trafficking.

San Francisco Giants Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Noah Lowry	shoulder	03/27/2009
Sergio Romo	elbow	03/27/2009
Joe Martinez	concussion	04/10/2009

Poll

You know the drill.

0 - Yep, the Rockies are bad enough to get swept at home by San Diego

1 votes

1 - I'm not predicting a series win until I see they are capable of doing it again

23 votes

2 - San Diego is just not that good. No sweep, but a series win to close out April for sure

27 votes

3 - The results don't show it yet but they will. We are just a better team.

27 votes

78 votes | Poll has closed

Diamondbacks 7, Brewers 8: The Slaughter of the Slaten

Jim McLennan — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 04:06:17 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Dan Haren works during a spring training baseball game. (AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)

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Not many times you'll score runs in six different innings, hit three home-runs and still end up losing. I guess that's some comfort to be taken from this afternoon's loss to the Brewers, as the bullpen had another little seizure, coughing up six runs in three innings, to allow Milwaukee to come back from 6-2 down in the middle of the sixth - Doug Slaten 'celebrated' his securing of a roster spot by allowing four hits, a walk and four earned runs in the seventh. That helped to spoil a good outing by Dan Haren, who finished off his pre-season with five innings of two-run ball, on three hits with five strikeouts and no walks. He has probably been the most impressive of all our starters this spring, not least for a phenomenal K:BB ratio of 34:4. That's a rate of more than one per inning, and gives him the most strikeouts in the majors this spring, by quite some way [next is Matt Cain's 28].

About the only knock on Haren's performance in the 2009 Cactus League would perhaps be that he has allowed a few too many long balls [another one today, basically his only mistake, responsible for both the runs he allowed and giving him a total of five in 30.2 IP], but since the walks plus hits allowed barely outnumber the innings he has thrown, it certainly seems like he's all set. His comments afterwards echo that: "I feel like I've made 10 starts this spring. It's been a long spring, and it's tough to get the adrenaline going here at the end. I mean, I'm definitely ready for the real thing to start." He eased up a tad in his final warm-up outing, from the seven innings last time, throwing just shy of 70 pitches; with 49 strikes, and looked very nice doing so. Here are his thoughts on the last outing, and how he feels heading into the regular season.

Audio courtesy of KTAR 620

Arizona had a 4-2 lead when Haren left the game after five innings, and added two more in the top of the sixth, on Felipe Lopez's two-run homer, his first of spring. That was our third long-ball of the game, following solo shots to Chad Tracy and Tony Clark, but the Brewers came back immediately. Jon Rauch surrendered his fourth homer of spring to the first hitter he faced, leading off the bottom of the sixth, cutting the lead to one run. Poor pitch selection there, Rauch serving up an 0-2 fastball down the middle, and he was only saved from allowing another two-run homer by a fine Upton grab at the fence. However, there was no more damage, and it did reduce Rauch's ERA. Albeit to 15.12.

Worse was to come, in the shape of Slaten. However, it's probably worth going through the course of that inning in some detail.
   RHB - full-count walk
   RHB - 3-1 single to left
   RHB - 1-0 single to right, misplayed by Romero into a two-run double
   LHB - first-pitch single back up the box by Craig Counsell on a fastball up
   LHB - Comebacker to the pitcher, get the man off third in a rundown.
   RHB - 1-2 breaking ball, two-run double to the wall in center.
   RHB - 2-2 groundball to Roberts at second
   LHB - 0-1 slider back to Slaten for the out at first.
Two of the three lefties were retired, compared to only one of the five righties. We trust he will be used with a bit more discretion in the regular season.

On offense, a few things to note - Justin Upton really didn't look good in his at-bats,going 0-for-3 and popping up to Fielder at first, with men on the corners and one out in the third. Grace and Sutton were speculating that his bat is taking too long to get through the zone, causing him to miss pitches he should be able to hit. Upton is hitting .196 this spring, and time is running out for adjustments, from someone we expect to be a major offensive contributor as of Monday. Lopez had two hits and drove in three runs, while Clark had three hits. Chris Young and Haren each had a couple of knocks, and Tracy had a walk in addition to his homer, though did also hit into a double-play. Alex Romero had his first error of spring.

As already noted below, James Skelton has failed to make the Opening Day roster with Arizona: it looks like, despite his on-base skills, the lack of offense against major-league pitching is what doomed him. with just six hits in 40 at-bats this spring. Even some positional flexibility - he saw time at second, third and in the outfield too - wasn't enough to save him, and I suspect management decided that every spot on the roster is going to need to be productive, even the last one. Skelton now has to go through waivers (it's unclear whether this has already happened), and if no-one wants him, has to be offered back to the Tigers for $25,000. Nick Piecoro reports a trade is possible, with th Tigers getting a different player back. Ryan Roberts is probably the favorite to grab the final spot, though he two Joshes, Whitesell and Wilson, are still hanging around.

Speaking of Nick, he'll be doing an online chat Monday at 11:30 am, before our Opening Day game. Might be fun to see how that goes, see if some of the - how shall I put it - 'characters' from AZ Central show up. Probably wisely, it appears to be moderated: "Your comments are published at the Writer's discretion. The Writer can view all comments sent to them but only they can publish your comments for everyone to see." Finally, Fox Sports AZ have announced they will be screening 142 of the Diamondbacks games in high-definition: all 73 home games they are showing, and 69 of the road ones. That's a marked increase on last year's total of 84 - this Saturday's exhibition game at Chase against the White Sox will also be available in HD.