SB Nation - Randy Choate

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 15:18:55 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

Craig Counsell is expected to re-sign today.

Some things to read while John Tesh rocks the NBA on NBC theme (h/t Amy K. Nelson).

Randy Wolf is expected to undergo a physical this morning and once he does, expect his contract to become official sometime later today. That might not be today's only announcement, though: the Brewers are also expected to finalize a deal with Craig Counsell today. With Counsell, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Casey McGehee all on the roster, the Brewers' Opening Day infield is probably set, barring injury or trade.

Meanwhile, Mike Rivera is surprised to be looking for work after being non-tendered over the weekend. He thought the decision not to retain Jason Kendall would give him an edge as the only returning catcher familiar with the Brewer pitching staff.

As of this writing, roughly 4% of voters in the poll on your right listed the decision to offer Dave bush a 2010 contract as the one Brewer move from this weekend they would change. That's not exactly a large chunk of the fanbase, but In-Between Hops is taking on that vocal minority, making the case that the Brewers made the right move by giving Bush another shot.

If you missed Morineko's Weekend Mug, follow the link over to it for full coverage of the Brewers' arbitration decisions, and a link to this list of all the non-tenders leaguewide.

Looking back at last week, Jon Heyman ranked the Brewers among the Winter Meeting winners. Meanwhile, Marc Hulet of The Baseball Analysts listed Rule 5 selection Chuck Lofgren in the "Why Bother?" category.

The more I think about it, the more I think Lofgren will have a tough task ahead of him if he's going to make the team out of spring training. With Trevor Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins, Todd Coffey, Claudio Vargas and Mitch Stetter back, there's only two bullpen spots left that are potentially available (barring injury), and Chris Smith, John Axford, Chris Narveson, Zach Braddock and now Lofgren fighting for them. I like Lofgren's potential and hope the Brewers will get an opportunity to realize it, but right now he might be the third or fourth best lefty in the bullpen competition.

If you have a vague interest in Brewer baseball, but wish there was less analysis and more profanity on this site, then Miller Park Drunk's RUNNING series might be just the ticket for you. Follow these links for bad Prince Fielder jokes, some fan fiction involving Ryan Braun trying to rap, and a vague musical reference to Rickie Weeks.

In the minors: Baseball Intellect has video footage of some at bats featuring Cameron Garfield, Cutter Dykstra and Josh Prince from a Pioneer League game back in July. They're pay-only, but there are worse ways to spend $2.95.

If you were gone this weekend, you didn't miss the opportunity to help select a center fielder and catcher for the BCB All Decade Team. Voting closes at 4 pm today for center fielders and 4 pm tomorrow for catchers. We'll open the voting for the final starting outfield spot later today.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Signed catcher John Buck to a one-year deal worth $2 million, signed Joey Gathright to a minor league deal,
Braves: Signed Matt Diaz to a one year, $2.55 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
D-Backs: Re-signed infielder Augie Ojeda to a one year deal, and avoided arbitration with Blaine Boyer.
Dodgers: Signed pitcher Josh Towers to a minor league deal.
Giants: Signed shortstop-turned-pitcher Tony Pena Jr. to a minor league deal.
Indians: Re-signed pitchers Adam Miller and Anthony Reyes to minor league deals.
Marlins: Signed catcher Ronny Paulino to a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Nationals: Re-signed Scott Olsen to a one year deal. Also signed pitcher Ryan Speier to a minor league deal.
Padres: Signed pitcher Kevin Correia to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Pirates: Signed Ronny Cedeno to a one year, $1.125 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rangers: Signed infielder Esteban German to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rays: Avoided arbitration with catcher Dioner Navarro and pitchers Grant Balfour, Rafael Soriano, Lance Cormier and Randy Choate.
Royals: Avoided arbitration with pitchers Brian Bannister and Kyle Davies. They also signed pitcher Bruce Chen and catcher Vance Wilson to minor league deals.
White Sox: Signed J.J. Putz to a one year deal.

Meanwhile, the market heated up immediately for Yankees non-tender Chien-Ming Wang, with Ken Rosenthal reporting that six teams have already expressed interest. He doesn't list the teams, but I wouldn't be surprised to discover the Brewers are one of them.

I promise, I'm not going to mention it every time someone says something new about Jason Kendall. In fact, I might try to go the rest of the week without mentioning him at all. With that said, I thought these three links about him were interesting:

Joe Posnanski has a look at the potential Opening Day lineup for the 2010 Royals, now including Kendall.
He also compares Kendall to a superball on the field at Cleveland Municipal Stadium.
Reminding us all how far and how fast Kendall has fallen, Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? named Kendall the Pirate Catcher of the Decade.

Weeks ago I linked to a post from minor league veteran Garrett Broshuis, mentioning the challenges in finding quality, healthy food in minor league clubhouses. It looks like that problem may be on its way to being resolved: After discussing it at the Winter Meetings, several teams are making an effort to provide healthier options, and remove the constant flow of junk.

If you're a fan of sabermetrics, or just want to learn more about them, I've got two links for you today:

TangoTiger has a look at OPS+, and some minor adjustments that could be made to it to make it more useful than some other advanced metrics.
That post links to this one, Big League Stew's beginner's guide to wOBA. I learned a fair amount by reading that one.

Gorman Thomas celebrated a birthday over the weekend, and while this probably isn't what he had in mind for a gift, David Chalk of Seventh Inning 'Stache has inducted him into the MLB Mustache Hall of Fame.

On this day in 1998, the Brewers acquired Alex Ochoa from the Twins for a minor leaguer named Darrell Nicholas. Ochoa spent one season as a Brewer, hitting .300/.404/.466 before being traded to the Reds for Mark Sweeney after the season.

Happy birthday today to:

Former Seattle Pilot and 1970 Brewer Greg Goossen, who turns 64.
Dave Nilsson, who appeared in 837 games as a Brewer and turns 40.
Marcus Jensen, who appeared in 18 games over two tours as a Brewer and turns 37.

Sean Forman, founder of Baseball Reference, is also celebrating his birthday today. You can help him celebrate by sponsoring a page. I know someone around here will want this one.

Drink up.

B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett Among Rays' Tendered Contracts

Tommy Rancel — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:00:33 -0000

More photos » by Mary Schwalm - AP

Tampa Bay Rays catcher Dioner Navarro, left, and pitcher Lance Cormier both received one-year deals, avoiding arbitration.

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Now that decision Saturday is finished, the Rays roster has gotten a bit clearer in some areas, yet remains unsettled in others. Not surprising, but B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour and Kelly Shoppach were all tendered contracts for the 2010 season. Barring an unforeseen event, all should be back with the Rays. The remaining questions are: who will sign before the mid-January deadline? And will any have a hearing like Dioner Navarro did last season?

Speaking of Navarro, a non-tender candidate in his own right, he was not only tendered a contract, but re-signed before the midnight deadline to a one-year deal with $2.1 million dollars avoiding arbitration altogether. The $2.1 million dollar salary is an exact replica of the salary Navarro received in 2009 after an arbitration panel denied his request for $2.5 million. It's not secret Navarro was just awful in 2009, but some of that awfulness can be explained by bad luck.

Even with regression, it seems that Navarro and the other catcher on the roster, Shoppach, are not ideal platoon partners with each player owning a similar platoon split. The Rays could stay status-quo on the position, or could continue to shop Navarro as was reported before Saturday's deadline. The going rate on an average catcher this year seems to be $3 million annually; Navarro could be a cheaper, alternative to some on the open market. If not, they Rays will have about ~$5 million dollars tied up at the catcher position with no clear cut answer to who is the starter.

Gabe Gross's non-tender is not a surprise. His name was never mentioned by Joe Maddon or Andrew Friedman as part of the 2010 plans, and Matt Joyce will never be more ready than he is now. Maybe the Rays will sign Ryan Langerhans for R.J. to obsess over.

R.J. covered the one-year deals of Randy Choate and Lance Cormier that will pay the bullpen duo a combined $1.9 million dollars in 2010. Choate will head in to spring training as the lead LOOGY in the clubhouse, while Cormier will nearly double his 2009 salary ($650k) and earn $1.2 million dollars. With Andy Sonnanstine and Mitch Talbot in the mix for bullpen spots, the raise for Cormier could mean an expanded role; one more similar to fellow ground baller, Chad Bradford instead of just mop-up man.

Among players non-tendered by other teams, I think Matt Capps makes the most sense for the Rays. The Rays had reported interest in him before the deadline, and it's easy to see why. Capps is still young at age 26, and was well above average in 2007 and 2008. It's strange that the Huntington/Fox front office would cut him loose based on one bad season in which some regression seems to be in order. If the Rays can some how dig into their new, seemingly bottom-less, purse one more time this offseason, Capps would seem like a decent investment since his new team would also hold his rights for 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays Reach Agreements and Avoid Arbitration with Relievers Lance Cormier & Randy Choate

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 00:51:53 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

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Nothing unexpected here.

Cormier was actually a victim of non-tender circumstance around this point last year with the Baltimore Orioles. That decisions is worth nothing for two reasons. 1) It showcases that there is some talent to be had from this time of the year and 2) Cormier pitched almost identically to last season. His FIP went up slightly, from 4.04 to 4.18, and his xFIP from 4.3 to 4.59, but he did his job as a mop-up man with the ability to get groundballs. Cormier pounds the zone with a high-80s fastball while employing secondary pitches like his curve, cutter, and slider. His breaking pitches get whiffs, his fastballs don't. Regardless, a ridiculous 79% of Cormier's cutters went for strikes last year - either swings and misses, called, or fouls - that type of factoid makes his return worthwhile within itself.

Choate was a minor league signing for depth purposes who wound up taking the job by force once Brian Shouse went down to injury. He is what he is. Against lefties he can manage some modest strikeout and walk rates as well as a fair groundball rate. Last year's 65% is higher than career norms, and his FIP and xFIP totals were off the charts for him. Choate threw the highest percentage of fastballs in his career so it'll be interesting to see how he embarks on his second season back in the American League East next season. He will make $700k.

Both were arbitration eligible, and avoid it with such agreements. The Rays have until midnight to offer arbitration, reach agreements, trade, or officially non-tender Matt Garza, B.J. Upton, J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, Jason Bartlett, Kelly Shoppach, Dioner Navarro, and Gabe Gross. The latter two seem to be the ones in danger of ending their Rays tenure at the stroke of midnight.

Free Agent Profile: LaTroy Hawkins

davoag — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:49:55 -0000

by David J. Phillip - AP

Will the Hawk be back in Houston?

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We already covered the basics of the reliever market with Jose Valverde's profile, so I thought the most illuminating thing to do with Hawkins is to see which teams might actually need a closer this winter. That, of course, is going to be the difference in him signing for 5-7 million and 2-3 million.

Hawkins has saved almost exactly the same number of games in the American League (44) as in the National League (43). Heading into his Age 37 season, he's probably not looking at more than a two-year deal and probably only a one-year contract.

Will it be a big deal if the Astros don't sign Valverde or Hawkins this winter? It will, but only because that's likely the only move they will make this winter. With the news that the Braves are shopping both Derek Lowe and Javier Vasquez, why wouldn't the Astros move on one of those guys instead? I'd rather have 200 innings in the starting rotation than 50 in the back of the bullpen. Remember the Cardinals went into last season with no closer at all and found one in Ryan Franklin (after a bumpy start to the season). Why couldn't the Astros do something similar? Throw Fulchino, Gervacio, Chad Paronto and any other cheap, hard thrower you want at the wall and see who sticks.

A quick note: I wrote up a quick scouting report of Jason Castro's AFL Rising Stars performance, for those who didn't get to see him on my minor league blog, Minor Musings. I'll avoid reposting by just directing you that way, if you are so inclined. At any rate, here are the teams who could be in the market for a closer...

Atlanta Braves

2009 saves: Rafael Soriano (27), Mike Gonzalez (10)

Notes: With both Soriano and Gonzalez becoming free agents, the Braves may be in the market for a closer. Of course, they also have a ridiculous amount of pitching depth, so they may end up picking up a closer in a trade for Vasquez or Lowe. Don't rule out converting a guy like Jo-Jo Reyes into the role of closer as well.

Baltimore Orioles

2009 saves: George Sherrill (20), Jim Johnson (10)

Notes: Johnson took over the closer's role once Sherrill was traded to the Dodgers, but it's anyone's guess whether the Orioles will keep him there. McPhail has not been shy about pursuing the top names on the market and could make a play for Valverde. It's more likely that the Orioles fill this gap from in-house guys, though.

Detroit Tigers

2009 saves: Fernando Rodney (37), Brandon Lyon (3)

Notes: Like the Braves, both Rodney and Lyon are free agents. Also like the Braves, the Tigers have a couple of candidates to fill the void. Remember Joel Zumaya? After three straight years of throwing less than 34 innings, he's probably not a great candidate to land the closer role, but he is still just 24 years old and has potential. I could see the Tigers investing in a mid-tier guy with a one-year deal. Maybe someone like Billy Wagner?

Tampa Bay Rays

2009 saves: J.P. Howell (17), Randy Choate (5), Grant Balfour (4), Troy Percival (6), Joe Nelson (3)

Notes: As you can see, the Rays definitely went with a closer-by-committee approach last season. I'm not sure what payroll flexibility they will have this offseason, but if they do have money to spend, it definitely makes sense for them to find a back-end bullpen guy. Competing in the AL East, they need a solid closer and don't have one right now.

Toronto Blue Jays

2009 saves: Jason Frasor (11), Scott Downs (9), B.J. Ryan (2)

Notes: With the transition at the top of the organization, I doubt the Blue Jays make a splash in free agency again for a closer. This isn't a bad situation due to free agents leaving as much as guys just not performing. Look for one of the Jays young pitchers to be slotted into this role next year. Either that or a trade for a guy like Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins.

Other teams possibly shopping: Arizona (depending how they view Qualls), Cincinnati (Only if they move Cordero), Colorado (Huston Street is arb-eligible), Washington (McDougald had hip surgery).

All in all, there are just not that many spots open for closers. It's a bad offseason for guys like Valverde and Hawkins. I'd expect at least one of them to stick with the Astros, but I'm not sure which one the team values more at this point.

Tampa Bay Rays Face Several Decisions On Player Options; Carl Crawford, Gregg Zaun

Tommy Rancel — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 13:38:01 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Tampa Bay Rays will just say "yes" when it comes to Carl Crawford's $10 million dollar option for 2010.

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One of the first orders of business to take care of during the hot stove league is squaring away options. So far 11 options have been accepted or declined since the end of the World Series with several more looming. Around these parts the Tampa Bay Rays have three options of their own to take care of.

Two of the three options seem like slam dunks. One is an obvious pick-up and one is a simple decline. The third option, however, is 50/50 and will probably determine the course of who is our catcher next season.

The Rays hold a $1.9 million dollar option (plus performance bonuses) on left handed specialist, Brian Shouse. Overall, his 5.17 FIP was far from impressive and his -0.1 WAR made him a negative value. However, it wasn't his fault that manager, Joe Maddon, had him face nearly as many righties (52 PA) as lefties (70 PA). Shouse did the job expected of him in 2009, and held left handed batters to a line of .224/.246/.373. Righties continued to crush him at a .356/.442/.622 clip. Nonetheless, Shouse just didn't pitch enough to justify picking up his nearly $2 million dollar option A left elbow strain sidelined him for 63 days, and while he made 45 appearances, he threw just 28 innings. With that being said, the $200k buyout is the likely course of action in this case.

The Rays are more likely to go with fellow side-winding lefty, Randy Choate, who was nearly as effective and will cost probably half of what Shouse will. There is always the possibility of signing former Ray (for 24 hours) and sabermetric wunderkind, R.J. Swindle on a minor league deal. The Rays could also go without a traditional lefty and turn to reverse split righties like Lance Cormier and newly acquired Jesse Chavez to serve as LOOGY's.

The next option is just as simple; the Rays will exercise the $10 million dollar option on left fielder and franchise player, Carl Crawford. This is a no-brainer and regardless of what CC's future holds, he will remain Rays' property for the time being. According to fangraphs, Crawford has made $13.1 million dollars in his career with the Rays. The nice $10 million raise is well overdue considering the fact that he as given the team $104.7 million dollars worth of production during his career.

CC is easily worth the $10 million dollar tag, but with some scouts saying Desmond Jennings could give you the same production right now for the league minimum, it doesn't look likely CC will finish his career with the Rays. Despite that fact, stranger things have happened, and both sides have expressed interest in a long term deal. Either way, the Crawford decision will be the biggest and most emotional decision in the franchise's history.

The final option because to leader of the Zaunbie nation, Gregg Zaun. Hailed as the veteran savior to our catching woes, Zaun didn't disappoint in the final two months of the season. Brining his veteran savvy and his reputed ball blocking ability, Zaun also swung a mighty stick in his near 100 plate apperances with the Rays. Small sample size rules apply, but Zaun hit .287/.323/.489 for the Rays. That earned him a 0.7 WAR or $3.2 million dollars in value. This means he has essentially covered his potential 2010 $2 million dollar option in production.

He is hardly the answer at catcher alone, and ZiPs has him projected for a .237/.335/.367 line in 2010. More likely, Zaun would be the left handed batter in a catcher platoon; picking up most of the at-bats against right handed batters. The problem with that is the Rays have a very similar situation with their other catcher Dioner Navarro. Navi is arb2 eligible and will make something in the neighborhood of ~$2 million dollars next season. I doubt the Rays will tie nearly $4 million dollars in two platoon players. There is also the question of Zaun playing 100-120 games behind the plate at 39. I could see the case for both sides of this option and honestly have no inclination of which way it will go. However, once the option is picked up or declined, we will have an answer to which way the Rays are intending to go.

Scott Kazmir K's 7 As Rays End Five Game Skid; Defeat Blue Jays 8-3

Tommy Rancel — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 02:46:59 -0000

More photos » by Mike Carlson - AP

Tampa Bay Rays' Carlos Pena, left, and Ben Zobrist celebrate their team's 8-3 win. Oh how I love seeing the jumping high five.(AP Photo/Mike Carlson)

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Saturday night started out like many Scott Kazmir starts over the last two seasons. On a night when the Rays needed a win in the worst way, Kazmir walked two of the first three batters and that Déjà-Vu feeling was creeping in. Luckily, by the end of the night there was a Déjà-Vu feeling, but in a good way.

After his two-walk, 21 pitch first inning, Kaz went to work on the Jays lineup and looked a lot like the Kid K of yesteryear. He would allow three runs on five hits while walking three and striking out a season high seven. Two of the runs came on one swing off the bat by Aaron Hill in the third inning. From there Kazmir would register a nine pitch fourth inning as well as a fantastic seven pitch fifth. He threw 18 pitches in the sixth; however, it was arguably the best 18 pitches I've seen from him this season. Kaz used all three of his pitches: fastball, slider and changeup in that inning and K's the Jays side. He ran into a bit of trouble in the seventh, but was bailed out by Russ Springer.

Overall Kazmir threw 103 pitches with 62 of them going for strikes. He relied on his fastball (57.2% four seam, 12.6% two seam), however, he did mix in his change ups and slider at the right times and got 11 swinging strikes on the evening. He maintained 89-91 on the heaters; nonetheless he nearly touched 94 a few times. As mentioned above, Kaz also mixed in a good number of change ups (15%) and made some really good ones in that sixth inning. He did throw 14% sliders, however, that number is down from what we've seen lately. With Dioner Navarro behind the plate, Kaz seemed to have a good rhythm and really had the fastball working in the middle innings.

Once Kazmir ran into trouble in the seventh inning, Joe Maddon quickly went to newly acquired Russ Springer, who ended the Jays threat thanks to a fantastic line drive snag by Ben Zobrist as well as inducing an inning ending ground ball to third. Springer is now wearing #36 which was previous worn by Randy Choate. Choate followed Springer in the eighth wearing Springer's old #37 and proved why he should remain as the Rays top loogy option. He quickly got two ground ball outs before giving up a single to right handed batting Vernon Wells. Dan "Big City" Wheeler made a quick cameo and struck out Randy Ruiz on three pitches: slider, curve, curve in the dirt. Wheeler is also sporting a full beard now as I'm sure he is trying to establish that he and Springer are in fact two different people.

Offensively, the Rays top of the order did work. The Rays 1-4 hitters went a combined 7-16 with five RBI. All of the Rays players who registered a plate appearance reached base and the team had five walks to match their five strikeouts. The lineup also went 7-13 wit runners in scoring position.

Carl Crawford loves Blue Jay pitching as he added two more hits including a double and reached base three times. Evan Longoria nearly missed his 25^th home run by about 2 feet.

Willy Aybar got a single in the seventh inning off a ball that only Vladimir Guerrero hits. Ben Zobrist added two more hits to his season total and made a fantastic play as I said in the seventh inning. I know it's a SSS, but his UZR at second base is a ridiculous 11.2 in over 520 innings of work.

The hunt for October maybe on life support, but the Rays stopped the bleeding temporarily and by night's end will have gained a game on either Boston or Texas. As we've said many times, tonight's game doesn't mean much if you don't follow up tomorrow so let's all take a deep breath and invoke our inner cranes for Matt Garza on Sunday afternoon.

Rays Have One Too Many Loogy's; Brian Shouse Or Randy Choate?

Tommy Rancel — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 18:00:15 -0000

A day after a healthy bullpen discussion, it's time to discuss some more. No, I'm not talking about J.P. Howell being taken deep by the evil Dr. Langerhans. I said yesterday even the best bullpen will have a hiccup and that was a full burp. I'm talking about the unnecessary carrying of two members of a seven man bullpen that have exactly the same job. When you carry any specialist on your team, you are basically putting yourself down a man on the roster most nights. When you carry two you are severely limiting the manager's flexibility. Sure, the Rays have four or five relievers capable of going multiple innings, but carrying both Randy Choate and Brian Shouse is a bit redundant.

Maybe the game-tying single by Ichiro is too fresh in my mind, but I think at this point I'm ready to see Shouse go and hand the LOOGY key to Randy Choate. If you look at the overall numbers, there isn't even a question about who should stay or who should go.

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	HR/9
Shouse	16.2	5.4	5.89	5.4	2.16
Choate	17.1	2.6	3.88	7.79	1.04

However, we all know that sometimes the lefty specialist has suck it up in lop sided games and face right handed hitters that can easily skew some of the numbers. Here are the important numbers against left handed batters.

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	HR
Shouse	31	0.25	0.268	0.425	2
Choate	33	0.22	0.273	0.317	1

Choate has allowed less hits, but walked three lefties while Shouse has the higher BAA, but not walked any. Their BABIP's against LHB are similar with Shouse having a .267 and Choate at .276. The big difference is in opponents slugging where opposing hitters are slugging over .100 points higher against Shouse.

If you really wanted to make the argument that Shouse has the longer track record of success against lefties that's fine, but I'll take Choate in this one. The best case scenario would be Andrew Friedman finding a team looking for a LOOGY and flipping Shouse or Choate for a PTBNL or in Shouse's case maybe a team taking on his contract will do. Either way carrying two loogy's or loogi is similar to carrying a third catcher. Its fine in September, but when you are clawing your way back to the top in a pennant race all you are doing is leaving your gun one bullet shy of a full round.

Why High Priced Non-Elite Relievers Aren't Worth the Money

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 07:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

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We've heard plenty of times this year about how the Rays need to add a veteran pitcher with closing experience. After Troy Percival's back, arm, and legs gave out along with Jason Isringhausen's arm blowing up, the Rays were left with a rag tag group of pitchers. No current member has held the Rays closer except for Dan Wheeler, who held it ever so briefly in Houston. Not only has the Rays pen not sunk without a true anchor, they've actually been really good. Coming as Thursday afternoon, the Rays were second in bullpen ERA (3.48) and fourth in FIP (3.89). The group also boasts the third best K/BB and fourth best HR/9. Not bad for a group with no names.

Here are the monthly breakdowns...

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/BB
April	63.1	3.84	4.1	1.81
May	101	4.19	4.6	1.84
June	70	1.67	2.61	3.1
July	66.1	4.21	4.08	2.5
August	14.2	2.45	3.28	2.75

The Rays pen was really never as bad as we thought. Sure, May was not pretty, but it was a far cry from Rays bullpens of the past. The Rays May bullpen also included veteran closer, Troy Percival, who allowed six earned runs in six innings and had a 9.00 ERA/7.57 FIP on the month. Since then, J.P. Howell and Co. have shut down teams more often than not. Every bullpen has a few hiccups along the way, but the Rays have a solid nucleus of guys with no defined titles. " As Dan Wheeler said the Rays don't need defined roles, but everyone has a job and understand that job. "Most of us just kind of understand when we're going to pitch." said Wheeler.

Could the Rays use another one of those non-descript arms like Jason Frasor or Michael Wuertz? Definitely, but the days of paying a veteran reliever a lot of money are likely over for the Rays. Just look at the production they've gotten from the collective group of Jason Isringhausen, Troy Percival, Chad Bradford, Joe Nelson and Brian Shouse aka the Rays relievers who are 34 years or older.

	IP	ERA	FIP	Salary
Percival	11.1	6.35	6.86	$4.45
Bradford	4.1	2.08	1.69	$3.50
Isringhausen	8	2.25	4.2	$0.75
Shouse	16.1	5.51	5.95	$1.35
Nelson	40.1	4.02	5.62	$1.30
	79.4	4.042	4.864	$11.35

Thats over $11 million dollars for what equates to be around league average production. If you take away Nelson, who is currently in Durham, the Rays will pay over $10 million dollars in salary to four relievers who have pitched less than 40 innings combined. Percival and Izzy are done for the season. Bradford is on the DL for the second time with no time table of returning (although I'd expect September at the latest) and Shouse is just returning from his injury. Percival's production was just awful even if it was just a small sample size. I think we all know that had he continued it would've only gotten worse. Isringhausen was ok, but was too small of a sample. Bradford and Shouse are still effective when used properly, but we have guys like Lance Cormier and Randy Choate, who have sub 4 FIPs and will make just a little over a million dollars combined.

The signings of Nelson and Shouse were not bad signings because of their length. Both essentially are on one year deals even though the Rays hold Nelson's rights for future seasons and a club option on Shouse for 2010. I'm not saying avoid all veteran relief pitchers, but signing non elite level veteran relievers to anything more than a one year deal is volitle. I'm not telling any of you guys anything new . Getting less production with a greater injury risk for more money just doesn't make sense for any team let alone the Rays. Most "experts" will continue to say the Rays need a closer, and I'm sure on all the offseason "wish lists" there will be "closer" in the box next to the Rays, but it's not necessary.

The Rays almost certainly will once again pass on the big name who have the closer title attached to them inflating their price. Instead, the team should seriously consider locking up J.P. Howell, who is one of the games true young elite relievers, as well as continue to bargain shop for the next Howell, Grant Balfour or Lance Cormier.

What is the Plural Form of LOOGY?

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 20:08:34 -0000

Brian Shouse is due back tomorrow. Odds are, the Rays send Dale Thayer back to Durham and roll with two LOOGY for a few days. One of the pair is almost certain to go before week's end. The Rays could designate Choate or Shouse for assignment, and then work on a trade over the next few days. I guess that gives away some leverage, but it's a lefty reliever, how much leverage do you really have when the good is so common?

The differences are marginal. Shouse is owed less than 750k for the rest of the season, but does have an option at 1.9 mil (or buyout at 200k) for next season. Conceivably the Rays could trade him and save a few hundred thousand this year. Meanwhile Choate is making league minimum and won't be eligible for free agency until after next season.

Choate strikes more out, walks more, and gets about the same number of grounders. His BABIP is due for some regression and I'm not sure his career high swinging strike rate will maintain either. Shouse's whiff rate is down and his raw stats are worse, having faced more righties than Choate.

Don't expect much of anything for either, just know the Rays really can't afford to waste a roster spot on additional lefty specialist for long, even if the Yankees are in town.

2009 Trade Deadline Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

Matt Buggenhagen — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 14:40:29 -0000

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Buyers or sellers?

The Rays are probably going to be holders before anything, but if I had to label them with a short-term title I would say they are closer to being buyers than they're sellers. The Rays are only 4 ½ games behind the first place Yankees and still have a few holes they could fill prior to the deadline.

Short-term need

On the surface the Rays probably have one immediate short-term need, and that's catcher. The rest of their infield is pretty stout. They had all-stars at every infield position, excluding catcher. Dioner Navarro has been nothing short of a disappointment for the Rays this year .226/.253/.328. Additionally, his backup Michel Hernandez has been just as bad, if not worse .256/.291/.329. The Rays more than anything need some guys in house to start performing at a more consistent level. Players like B.J. Upton, Pat Burrell, Scott Kazmir, Jeff Niemann and David Price have been very inconsistent in their play throughout the entire season. If these players settle in and start performing at a more consistent level the Rays will be fine, and should find themselves right in the thick of the postseason race. However, don't expect the Rays to be very active. I wouldn't be surprised if the Rays didn't make any short-term quick fixes.

Long-term need

The Rays probably have the most talented young team in all of baseball, so it's tough to say what exactly their long-term need would be. Probably more than anything the Rays long-term needs are more financially focused. They're going to have to begin the process of figuring out how to keep this team together. They already completed the first part, which was signing third baseman Evan Longoria to a long-term contract, but over the course of the next few years they'll have several stars ready to hit the free agent market. In the next two years alone the Rays have roughly 76% of their current roster up for free agency including Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, Pat Burrell, Troy Percival, Chad Bradford, Akinori Iwamura, Dioner Navarro, Jason Bartlett, Grant Balfour, Joe Nelson, Gabe Gross, Gabe Kapler, Jeff Niemann, Randy Choate, B.J. Upton, J.P. Howell, Matt Garza, Ben Zobrist, and Joe Dillon. Things are going to start getting expensive in Tampa, the Rays bubble may be in jeopardy of bursting real soon.

Big leaguers on the market?

I don't expect the Rays to have any big leaguers on the market; they're in contention and really have no reason to deal anybody on their current major league roster. However, as we've said things are going to start getting expensive in Tampa soon, so maybe if someone blew them away with an offer they might trade someone like either Scott Kazmir or Carl Crawford, but it's unlikely. Kazmir just signed a new three-year deal, where he is scheduled to make $6 million in 2009, $8 million in 2010, $12 million in 2011 and a club option for $13.5 million in 2012 (which has a $2.5 million buyout). Crawford's current contract has a club option for $10 million next year, which could increase to $11.5 million with escalators. Both contracts are pretty expensive for the Rays so it's not out of the realm of possibility for the Rays to listen to offers, but I wouldn't expect them to deal either player.

Minor league strength

The Rays minor league system has thinned out a bit, which is understandable given how many major league stars they have produced over the last few years. They still have a few young potential stars, which for the most part seem to be pitchers. Of course the cornerstone of their young pitching is former number one overall selection David Price. However, Price isn't the only young pitcher the Rays have. They also have two really good young pitchers in Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. John Sickels of Minor League Ball considers Davis a "Gil Meche" type, and Hellickson he says has "Excellent combination of command with solid stuff."

One area that the Rays probably need to address is looking to add some depth to their system with position players. They have one really good position player in shortstop Tim Beckham (2008 number one overall selection). Beckham has struggled a bit so far in his career, but he's only 19, and most scouts' think he will come around soon. He's regarded as an excellent shortstop with great bat speed, which should lead to average power in his future.

In an effort to begin adding to that much needed depth the Rays used their first five draft selections in the 2009 draft on position players, which includes their first round pick, high school second baseman LeVon Washington.

Take on short-term money to win?

The Rays could probably take on some money, but it could only be a very small amount. However, I doubt the Rays are thrilled about the idea of taking on additional money, but if a deal came along that made them considerably better they might take a shot.

For more coverage of the Rays check out DRays Bay.