SB Nation - Daryle Ward

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

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Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

Busting out in the Divisional Round: Alex Rodriguez and Jeff Bagwell

HighLeveragePerformer — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 11:00:37 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

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Story after story after story have been written in the past week about Alex Rodriguez' playoff redemption. For a player as maligned as Rodriguez, truly positive press can be hard to come by. After a season of high expectations for his team, the Yankee third baseman thriving outside of the spotlight- free agent signees Mark Teixeira, AJ Burnett and CC Sabathia, the resurgent Derek Jeter and their new baseball palace have stolen headlines that used to belong to A-Rod. If the result of this relative lack of exposure is the success we've witnessed over the first few games of the playoffs, then maybe Rodriguez could use some of that $300 million contract to force the NY beat writers to focus on Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Brett Gardner in 2010.

Besides the lessening of external pressure on the slugger, the lineup the Yankees have fielded this season is much stronger than those in playoff years past. Outside of 2004, his playoff performances have been well below his career averages. It's tough to judge a player based off of fewer than 35 AB, but it's the nature of the beast playing in New York, on baseball's biggest stage.

Jeff Bagwell never had to deal with the New York media, or the ire of the baseball public during his illustrious career. After four failed attempts to escape the first round the playoffs, Bagwell and the Astros finally managed to lay their collective demons to rest by beating the Atlanta Braves in the 2004 NLDS. Bags would see extended playoff ABs for the first time in his career, and he responded by posting a stupendous "triple-slash" of .318/.400/.682 in 22 ABs. No longer would he be forced to head into yet another off season coming off of tepid October performances.

Was there anything special about that October as compared to 1997, '98, '99 or 2001 (which in fairness was a solid, albeit short, postseason for Jeff)?

1997:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Bradley	.305
1B	Bags	.428
2B	Craig	.410
3B	S. Berry/Spiers	.316/.404
SS	Bogar/Ricky	.315/.302
LF	Gonzo	.320
CF	Hidalgo	.373
RF	Abreu	.319

1998:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Ausmus	.318
1B	Bags	.422
2B	Craig	.406
3B	Berry	.387
SS	Gutierrez	.301
LF	Alou	.416
CF	Everett	.359
RF	Bell	.373

1999:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Eusebio	.320
1B	Bags	.422
2B	Craig	.368
3B	Cammy	.374
SS	Bogar	.294
LF	Javier	.374
CF	Everett	.416
RF	Bell	.296

Note: This season saw the likes of Daryle Ward (.336), Javier, and Matt Mieske (.333) start playoff games in the outfield. Yikes.

2001:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Bradley	.270
1B	Bags	.408
2B	Craig	.364
3B	V. Castilla	.339
SS	J. Lugo	.303
LF	Alou	.397
CF	Hidalgo	.346
RF	Lance	.435

2004:

Position	Player	wOBA
C	Bradley	.271
1B	Bags	.364
2B	Kent	.369
3B	Ensberg	.321
SS	Everett	.313
LF	Craig	.349
CF	Beltran	.404
RF	Lance	.427

While the addition of Beltran and Kent in 2004 were huge additions, it wasn't as if the Astros became the '27 Yankees. In fact, this was Bagwell's worst season in his career (to that point), yet he had his best postseason ever. While A Rod's mates are clearly superior in 2009 than in seasons past, the same can't truly be said of Bags' bunch in 2004. Between his and Craig's declines, and the lowest output from 3B since 1997, this was a pretty good, but not superior lineup. What surprised me was that Jeff Kent, a power hitting second baseman throughout his career, posted Biggio-like numbers at second in 2004. Lance Berkman is great....like, "play for five more seasons and punch his ticket to Cooperstown" great.

If anything, I'd chalk up their 2004 NLCS appearance to not having to face Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Kevin Brown, and John Smoltz, and instead facing off against Jaret Wright, John Thomson, Russ Ortiz and Mike Hampton. Wait a second...Ortiz? Hampton? Weren't they on the....this season? Damn.

Washington Nationals' Possible Candidates for September Roster Expansion

Dave at Nats News Network — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 21:54:55 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Washington Nationals starting pitcher Collin Balester could rejoin the team as early as Sept. 1 when the major league rosters expand. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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With September 1 literally just hours away, major league teams can expand their active roster to include anyone occupying a spot on their 40-man roster. Traditionally, teams have utilized the "September call-up" in one of several ways:

1) For contenders, it's a chance to give their regulars a night off here and there in preparation for the gruel of the playoffs

2) For middle of the pack teams, it's often a reward to long-time minor leaguers or AAAA-types toiling in obsurity

3) For bottomfeeders, it's an opportunity for a chance to see that prospect that everyone is excited about, even for just a quick appearance

The Nats seem to fall into all three categories this year.

The Nats have already indicated that they will wait until Syracuse's season is over before calling anyone up, though. So any help will still be at least a week away from arriving in D.C.

Because of the rash of injuries, trades and bullpen struggles, general manager Mike Rizzo has already made the bulk of his September call-ups before the roster expansion happened. Jorge Padilla, Pete Orr, Justin Maxwell, Mike Morse...even pitchers like J.D. Martin, Tyler Clippard and Jorge Sosa would have been prime candidates, were it not for the need earlier in the season.

So who is left? Let's take a look!

ON THE 40-MAN ROSTER

By my count, with Justin Maxwell's impending promotion there are currently 14 players on the 40-man roster NOT on the active 25-man roster:

C: Jesus Flores (15-day DL), Luke Montz (AA-Harrisburg)

SS: Ian Desmond (AAA-Syracuse)

OF Austin Kearns (15-day DL), Nyjer Morgan (15-day DL)

LHP: Scott Olsen (15-day DL), Ross Detwiler (AAA-Syracuse), Matt Chico (AA-Harrisburg)

RHP: Collin Balester (AAA-Syracuse), Shairon Martis (AAA-Syracuse), Marco Estrada (AAA-Syracuse), Luis Atilano (AAA-Syracuse), Ryan Mattheus (minor league DL), Stephen Strasburg

60-day DL: OF Roger Bernadina, RHP Terrell Young, 1B Dmitri Young, RHP Jordan Zimmermann

Players on the 60-day DL do not count toward the 40-man roster, so there may still be some wiggle room to place a player or two on the 60-day to open 40-man space.

Of the 14 players on the 40-man, Flores, Morgan, Olsen and Mattheus are out for the season with injury. And from the sounds of this, Kearns is probably joining them. So we can rule all of those players out.

Rizzo has already been on record that Chico is not likely a candidate, and Strasburg's plans have been laid out in excrutiating detail. Additionally, Rizzo has all but ruled out a cameo for Drew Storen, blazing his way up the minor league chain after being selected No. 10 overall in this year's amateur draft.

That leaves Desmond, Detwiler, Balester, Martis, Estrada and Atilano off the 40-man roster eligible. It's been assumed that the Nats will recall a couple starters to relieve some of the burden from young arms accumulation of innings. But with the signing of Livan Hernandez, who eats innings as well as any pitcher in the majors, maybe that goal has already been achieved.

Still, I can envision seeing Balester, Detwiler, Martis and Estrada all being recalled and utilized as starters or swing-men in September.

And I'll also pencil in Desmond. He's had a terrific season, and the Nats have to be wondering if the best arm and range in their minor league system can handle the bat enough at the big league level to replace the very quickly aging Cristian Guzman and his bunions.

Atilano is 2-0, 2.45 in two starts since his promotion to Syracuse, and the one-time first round draft pick of the Altanta Braves has enjoyed a fine season overall, but the Nats are probably happy to let him finish the season and head into spring training.

As for players currently not on the 40-man roster? There are certainly some candidates, and most of them are bullpen guys that could again help manage the workload of some of the young starters.

OTHER PITCHERS

There are six relievers in Syracuse that could certainly get "The Call" : RHPs Zech Zinicola, Zack Segovia, Josh Wilkie, Clint Everts and LHPs Jack Spradlin and Yunior Novoa.

Segovia has some major league experince, a 2.70 ERA and five saves for Syracuse. Everts was the Expos 2002 first round pick. In 2009, in over 57.1 IP at three levels (Potomac, Harrisburg & Syracuse), Everts has been outstanding (8-1, 1.41 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 10.4 K/9). Spradlin is 4-3 with four saves and has a 3.19 ERA and 1.212 WHIP across AAA-AA in 44 games. He has struck out an even 7.0 per nine.

Wilkie was an unheralded pitcher from George Washington University (sound familiar?) and has been promoted twice this season. Novoa has a great change but has only been "just decent" this season, despite being promoted three times this season. Zinicola (6.04 ERA) has struggled this year.

OTHER HITTERS

Most of them are already with the big club. Rizzo said the other day he doesn't envision calling up a third catcher just for the heck of it. Montz is the only other catcher on the 40-man, and he's really regressed this season (.184/.295/.314 in 347 plate appearances) after hitting 16 homers last season.

Could Seth Bynum (.263/.306./453, 18 HR, 62 RBI in 433 ABs), Kory Casto (.268/.332/.373, 7-55), Norris Hopper (.291/.342/.344, 23 SBs), Brad Eldred (.267/.338/.478, 16-56) or Daryle Ward (.235/.320/.389, 12-45) get promoted? Possible, but not likely. The only compelling possibility is Hopper, who is a plus defender in center. But you have to figure whatever at bats Wee Willie Harris doesn't get are going to go to Justin Maxwell, in what could make or break his tenure in the organization.

SURE TO BE INCORRECT PREDICTIONS

The Nats add a bunch of arms, but just one more hitter, injury notwithstanding.

From the 40-man: RHPs Balester, Detwiler, Martis, Estrada and SS Desmond

Need to be added to 40-man: RHP Everts and Segovia and LHP Spradlin

Your guess is as good as mine, though. Let's hear 'em in the comments.

Nationals Acquire Daryle Ward and Norris Hopper

Brendan Scolari — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 18:29:52 -0000

via www.woolis.com

According to Bill Ladson of MLB.com the Nationals have acquired Daryle Ward and Norris Hopper. Both Hopper and Ward were playing for the White Sox Triple-A Charlotte affiliate and will report to Triple-A with the Nationals as well. Ward had been hitting .254/.358/.400 in 275 PA's and Hopper had hit .319/.380/.347 in 79 PA's at Charlotte.

Cubs Lose Battle Of Two-Run Homers; Tigers Win In Walkoff 5-4

Al — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 12:30:20 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

I take back my "I was wrong about Kevin Gregg" comment.

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Kevin Gregg allowed only three home runs all last year. One of them was memorable to Cubs fans -- a three-run, pinch-hit blast by Daryle Ward on August 15, 2008 in Miami that gave the Cubs a 6-5 win over the Marlins. At the time Gregg hadn't allowed a HR since May.

In 2009, in half as many innings as he pitched last year, he's now allowed twice as many homers -- six. Last night's hurt more than any of the other five, as Ryan Raburn's pinch-hit, two-run homer erased a 4-3 lead and gave the Cubs a taste of the medicine they delivered three straight times last week to other teams, a 5-4 loss to the Tigers.

This ruined a night that looked like it was going as originally planned by Cubs brass before the season started: a fine seven-inning performance by Carlos Zambrano, whose only mistake was the two-run homer Brandon Inge slammed off him; a solid inning of relief from Carlos Marmol, and some timely hitting capped by a two-run homer from Micah Hoffpauir.

In fact, I was mentally composing this recap as Gregg recorded the first out in the ninth, even after he walked Don Kelly to put a runner on base. It was going to be titled "Designated Hoffpauir", since Micah was the Cubs' first DH of the 2009 season.

Instead, it's one of the toughest losses of the season. The Cardinals beat the Mets in the only NL game of the night, so the Cubs fall 3.5 games off the pace in the NL Central. However, no one still seems to want to step up and dominate the division. The Brewers lost to the Twins at home -- and their pitching staff is starting to live up to my prediction that they would be "Gallardo and four Suppans". The Cubs trail Milwaukee by only 1.5 games.

The offense did a decent job against one of the better pitchers in the AL this year, Edwin Jackson. Derrek Lee singled and doubled; Milton Bradley didn't have any hits but drew two walks. The biggest bone I can pick about last night's game (other than the walkoff) is the Cubs' failure to score more than one run in the first inning after loading the bases with nobody out. They had the chance to break the game open and maybe even get Jackson out of there, but couldn't.

One final note about shutouts with double-digit hits for the scoreless team, as we were discussing yesterday; on June 20, 1974, Rick Reuschel shut out the Pirates at Wrigley Field 1-0, giving up 12 hits (including three doubles!). He was helped out by a pair of double plays. (Thanks to George Castle for the reminder.) It almost seems as if Cubs pitchers have to throw shutouts and hit home runs themselves for the Cubs to win these days. They still need another bat, even when Aramis Ramirez comes back, and Lou says A-Ram will start taking BP this Friday at the Cell:

"Once we get to that stage, it's just a matter of when he goes out for a rehab assignment," Piniella said. "He is going to have to go out and play and get some at-bats. ... We can start seeing light at the end of the tunnel with this thing now."

Onward to tonight. A win would provide more light in that tunnel, too.

Pirates Still Aren't Close

Charlie — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 19:57:38 -0000

The Post-Gazette editorial page continues its commentary on the Pirates. I'd rather not comment on these sorts of things, but because of the impact a P-G editorial can have on public opinion, I'll add my two cents.

Last week Pirates executives made one of the most controversial trades in years, dealing Gold Glove centerfielder Nate McLouth to Atlanta for three prospects (we were part of the chorus of critics). Yet today the team is only three games under .500 and four games out of first place in the National League Central Division.

In February the Penguins didn't look like contenders either, but the lure of the cup proved all-powerful. Now the Pirates have had a taste. May they, too, take up residency soon in the City of Champions.

I don't know anything about the Penguins, but even I know they came within two games of winning the Stanley Cup last year, have an amazing core of young talent and, moreover, spent several painful years patiently building that core of talent. There probably are lessons the Pirates can learn from the Penguins, but the idea that you should start putting champagne on ice every time you get anywhere near .500 isn't one them.

I'm not sure whether to read the above excerpt as a clueless criticism of the Pirates' current strategy or simple, ho-hum optimism, but just in case it's the former:

At almost this exact point in the year 2005, the Pirates beat the Devil Rays, giving them an actual .500 record, with 30 wins and 30 losses. They still lost 95 games that year, and that shouldn't have surprised anyone, because instead of looking at 60 games and assuming the results represent the team's true level of ability, a smart observer will, y'know, look at who's actually on the team. The 2005 Pirates started the year with Matt Lawton, Daryle Ward, Jose Castillo in Benito Santiago in their starting lineup and Tike Redman as the third hitter in their order. They also had Kip Wells, Josh Fogg, Mark Redman and Dave Williams in their rotation. They were .500 after 60 games, yes, but does that look like a championship-caliber core? Did the Pirates fail to win it all that year simply because "the lure" of a title was something less than "all-powerful"?

Then in 2006, the Pirates played 37-35 baseball after the All-Star break. That didn't stop the 2007 team from losing 95 games yet again, despite the much-ballyhooed offseason addition of Adam LaRoche. Again, talent matters. A bad team can sustain a run of passable baseball for a while. That doesn't mean it's headed for the World Series.

The Pirates are currently three games below .500. They aren't as bad as they've been in past years, but they still don't have enough offense, frontline starting pitching, or relief pitching. And here's a big secret: being three games below .500 this year is not much of an accomplishment. The Pirates are currently last in their division, and it's very hard to leapfrog five other teams, especially when two of them have as much talent as the Cubs and Brewers do. The Bucs are on pace to win 77 games, which frankly is nothing to write home about, even if it's much better than they've been the past several years. And that pace is actually better than it was before they traded McLouth. As someone who watches the games, I'm happy to see the Pirates doing a better job throwing strikes and playing defense. But they're still miles from where a contender should be, and I hope the front office will continue its business of rebuilding the organization from the ground up.

Jim Hendry And Lou Piniella, This One's On You: Cubs 2, Padres 7

Al — Sun, 24 May 2009 23:27:57 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

"Where do you want to go for dinner?" "I dunno, where do YOU want to go for dinner?"

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When I say "this one", I don't mean the Cubs' 7th straight loss, 7-2 to the Padres this afternoon; I mean the entire construction of this team and thus, the way it has not been able to handle adversity and injuries.

We've been over this ground before, but Lou apparently decided that the reason the Cubs lost the NLDS to the Dodgers was that they didn't have enough lefthanded hitters. So -- and Jim Hendry did this with his last celebrity manager, Dusty Baker, too -- Hendry let Piniella dictate far too much the composition of his roster. Instead of simply tweaking a few things that might have been wrong with the 2008 Cubs (e.g.: replacing Daryle Ward with Micah Hoffpauir, getting another lefthanded reliever or two), they blew it up.

Now, "blew it up" is relative: it wasn't as if Hendry had a fire sale, jettisoning productive guys like Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano. But he cut the heart (and when I say "heart", I'm referring to the center, not any amorphous touchy-feely thing) out of the bench and cut its versatility down to near zero. It seemed as if the Cubs got to the end of spring training and suddenly realized, "Hey, we don't have a backup shortstop and our fifth outfielder can't really play."

This worked fine until Aramis Ramirez got hurt and there was no backup. Then Hendry shipped off the useless Joey Gathright and got... another player Lou won't use, Ryan Freel. And if Freel was acquired with the idea that he could play third base, the reality is that the last time Freel played a significant number of games at 3B was five years ago; at age 33 and with back problems, I don't think he can really play 3B and be of any help, and Lou apparently agrees. Freel has started only two games in the two weeks he's been a Cub and is 1-for-10. Since the Cubs are basically paying him Joey Gathright's salary, I'd just let him go.

There are problems beyond this even with the lineups on the field. Len and Bob touched on this during the telecast today; the formerly-patient hitting Cubs have stopped having good at-bats and drawing walks. I'm keeping the "Walk Watch" box on the right sidebar for now, but the pace for the season total has dropped below 600. During the losing streak the Cubs have walked only 12 times -- not at all since Friday -- and six of those were in one game, the Friday game at San Diego where they left a ridiculous 13 men on base. Today, the game got somewhat competitive when Reed Johnson hit his first homer of the year to make it 4-2, but when Ted Lilly (who pitched, again, reasonably well) got in trouble, Aaron Heilman nearly got out of the inning save for one bad pitch to Kevin Kouzmanoff, who hit a three-run homer to put the game out of reach.

So what to do? BCB reader ambrosiadreams posted this thoughtful post not long after the game ended and I happen to agree with a lot of what's inside, but let me summarize, prioritize and add a couple of things to what I'd do with 120 games left -- that's still 3/4 of the season and if the Cubs could go 70-50, which isn't impossible, that'd still be a 91-win season.

First, let's end the David Patton experiment right now. And when I say "now", I mean "a week ago". Patton has a great arm and a fine attitude, but think about it. This afternoon's eighth inning, with the team down 7-2, would have been the perfect time to give him an inning of work, but he sat again anchored to the bullpen bench, guarding the pink backpack for the fifteenth day in a row.

Replace him with Jake Fox. Fox had two more hits today and his numbers are ridiculous: .425/.503/.897 with 17 HR and 50 RBI in 39 games. At this point I don't even care that he can't play defense; get him on the roster and put him anywhere so that this team can score a few runs. Plus, for more than two weeks the Cubs have effectively been playing with a 24-man roster; the blame for that lies squarely with the manager who won't use a pitcher who sits in the bullpen.

Count me in the camp that wants to reacquire Mark DeRosa. DeRo would solve a number of problems because he can play multiple positions -- granted, he's not the best defender, but he can play a passable third base and left field, which could free up other players... including Alfonso Soriano, who has offered to play second base if needed. Right now, maybe that's needed. Soriano wasn't a great second baseman during the five years he played it on a regular basis, but he does have 764 major league games played there and for a month, maybe he could do it. That could free up left field for Jake Fox -- he can't possibly be worse than Dave Kingman out there, can he? (OK, maybe he can. We still need his bat.)

The Cubs also have to think about acquiring a pitcher -- not a starter, because even during the losing streak, the starters have done a pretty good job. But the bullpen, particularly the middle relief as demonstrated by Heilman today, is in tatters. Kevin Gregg is going to get as rusty as Patton is; he has thrown only two innings during the losing streak. I'm not sure who is out there to acquire from a major league team, but maybe it's time to give Jeff Stevens a chance.

What made matters worse today is that I got a call from a friend of mine in California, a Padres fan, and the first thing I heard on the phone was, "Happy anniversary." Um, John? I didn't need that. And then I got a text from BCB reader bison, at the game in San Diego, who said HWSNBN was at the game (later on, I heard him on TV). Ugh. Leave him out there, please.

And yet. The Cardinals lost today to the Royals and if the Twins can beat the Brewers, the Cubs will remain only four games out of first place. As bad as things look, the team is at .500 (it feels like about 10 games under, doesn't it?); we know this team has talent and should be better than this. For an example of a talented team that got off to a bad start and recovered, we need go back no farther than the 2005 Yankees, who started 11-19 but wound up winning 95 games and the AL East. Or how about the 2006 Cardinals, who had two separate eight-game losing streaks and another of seven (the latter in late September, no less), and creaked into the playoffs with an 83-78 record.

You know what happened to them after that. There's a long way to go; things look bad now, but this team is better than they've played the last seven games. Perhaps the Pirates will be the cure.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 05 May 2009 13:51:19 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

7 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers' Rickie Weeks (23) rounds third as he is congratulated by coach Brad Fischer (36) after hitting a ninth-inning thee-run home run off Pittsburgh Pirates closer Matt Capps in a baseball game in Pittsburgh on Monday, May 4, 2009. The Brewers won 7-4. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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Some things to read while waiting for something to load.

The Brewers won again in dramatic fashion last night, in a game that saw the return of Ryan Braun but an injury to Bill Hall. In a move that surprised more or less everyone, Hall started in left last night in place of Braun, and lasted all of one inning before leaving with cramping in his hamstring. In-Between Hops came out against the move before the game. Hall, meanwhile, is expected to be reevaluated today. Two things immediately jump out at me:

First, kudos to Hall for being willing to take one for the team and play wherever asked. Despite not having played a game in the outfield all spring and never having played left field, he was willing to give it a shot.
Second, though, Macha admitted after the game that he didn't know Hall had never played left field in the majors. This is flat-out coaching fail. Sure, Macha wasn't around before this season and some members of the coaching staff are new as well, but I can't believe there wasn't a single front office person, assistant coach or player willing to mention to Macha that he was wandering into uncharted territory. Maybe Macha should spend a little less time complaining about Trevor Hoffman's music and a little more time getting to know his players.

Is J.J. Hardy ready for a hot streak? Apparently Mike Rivera noticed a change in Hardy's batting stance from last season. Hardy adjusted it back and went 1-for-3 with a walk last night.

Yet another reason why Mike Cameron is your early choice for NL MVP: According to FanGraphs, Cameron is the most valuable defensive outfielder in baseball so far this season.

Dugout Central, though, still hasn't picked up on the trend. They have Cameron eighth in their voting for April's NL MVP, behind Ryan Braun. Yovani Gallardo finished fifth in their voting for NL Cy Young.

The Hardball Times has developed four teams of players who do and don't swing at high and low pitches. J.J. Hardy made the team of players who don't swing at low pitches, and Jason Kendall made the list for not swinging at high ones. It feels really strange to talk about Brewers who don't swing at everything.

Speaking of Kendall, Matthew Pouliot of Circling the Bases rated him #97 on his list of potential 2010 free agents. Kendall and Rickie Weeks are also in the top ten in Plunk Everyone's list of players most likely to get hit by a pitch.

In the minors:

While Pedro Lambertus begins serving his 50-game suspension for PED use (plus ten more games tacked on by the Brewer organization), Timber Rattlers beat writer Brett Christopherson asked how a mistake like this could happen, and couldn't find anyone with an answer.
Chuckie Hacks found an article from the Nashville Tennesseean discussing Mat Gamel's defense. It sounds like the top of his defensive upside might be league average.

The Brewers return home on Friday, and were scheduled to face Carlos Zambrano, but that won't happen anymore. Zambrano has been placed on the DL with a hamstring strain. (Also noted in FanShot) The Cub Reporter takes a look at the three pitchers who could fill in for Zambrano on Friday.

Also, if you're planning on coming out to the ballpark on Friday, Miller Park Drunk would like you to leave your banana, gorilla and bunny costumes at home.

Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star moved the Brewers up from 26th to 15th in his power rankings, but still has them behind the Reds (11th) and Pirates (14th).

Around the league:

Astros: Placed Doug Brocail on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Cardinals: Rick Ankiel is day-to-day after crashing into the outfield wall last night. X-Rays and a CT scan came back negative.
Mets: Ken Takahashi has been moved into the rotation, replacing Oliver Perez. Takahashi is 40 years old and pitched for 14 years in Japan.
Nationals: Signed Mike MacDougal to a minor league deal.
Royals: Tony Pena Jr. has a broken hand that will require surgery. He'll be out 4-8 weeks.
White Sox: Signed Daryle Ward to a minor league deal.

Oh, and Adult Swim is piling on the Pirates.

Drink up.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 14:05:11 -0000

Some things to read while everyone else is writing about the same thing.

I banged my head on my desk a few times this morning after reading this post from Tom H. which acknowledges the possibility that Mike Lamb and Tony Gwynn Jr. could start the season on the roster while Casey McGehee (who still has an option) and Chris Duffy (in camp on a minor league deal) are sent to AAA.

I get the premise: Stockpiling talent is a good thing, throwing it away is to be avoided if possible. But neither Lamb nor Gwynn are exceptional talents. Gwynn was below average in AAA each of the last two seasons and Lamb has been little more than a below average corner infielder for years now. Keeping them on the roster in place of players who could perform the same duties with a higher upside is like walking past a dollar on the sidewalk because your pockets are already full of pennies.

Meanwhile, Trot Nixon is playing his way out of camp and the Brewers have let him know he may not have a job in AAA either. (Also noted in FanShot) Nixon has played in 20 games this spring, hitting .105/.227/.211 in 38 at bats.

Speaking of players who aren't showing much this spring, if Trevor Hoffman isn't ready to start the regular season, David Riske will not be his replacement. Seth McClung is the pick over at View From Bernie's Chalet. He thinks the Brewers should take this opportunity to see if McClung can close next season, when Hoffman will likely be gone.

Regardless of how McClung starts the season, at least he knows he'll get to play somewhat regularly. Tom H. has a profile of Mike Rivera, who discusses what it was like to sit on the bench for weeks on end, including the Brewers' last 34 games in 2008.

I'm sure some Brewer fans wish Jeff Suppan would sit for weeks on end, too, but they're bound to be disappointed. With the announcement that Braden Looper will start on Thursday, Ken Macha implied that Jeff Suppan will be on the mound when the Brewers open the regular season on April 7. (Also noted in FanShot) Keeping Suppan in the #1 spot would mean the Brewers will pitch Suppan, Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra against the Giants, then Looper, Dave Bush and Suppan again against the Cubs.

Yovani Gallardo didn't have a great day on the mound yesterday, allowing six runs in five innings, but there is one encouraging note to pass along: Gallardo was scheduled for 90 pitches yesterday but threw 98, meaning he's pretty close to being fully stretched out.

On previews, rankings and projections:

Batter's Box Interactive has twelve questions about the NL Central, and wants to know what to expect from Rickie Weeks, Bill Hall and Jeff Suppan. Don't we all?
David Chalk of Bugs & Cranks has a Brewers/Rays comparison that likely isn't actually worth your time.
The Scores Report predicts the Brewers will finish third.
MLB Outsider ranks Ryan Braun as MLB's third best left fielder.

Jeremy Jeffress throws 100 mph and has quickly climbed the ladder to Huntsville in the Brewer farm system. He's also been suspended for smoking marijuana and has never thrown 100 innings in a season. As a result, it's probably no surprise that Jeffress is included in Dugout Central's list of hyped pitching prospects likely to fail.

Another day, another economics story: The Brewers have now filed three lawsuits in five days against businesses and suiteholders who owe them payments for the 2009 season.

In other camps:

Astros: Cecil Cooper thinks the Astros can win 90 games this season.
Dodgers: Shawn Estes will remain with the team and work to make the transition to the bullpen.
Giants: Returned West Bend native and Brewer killer Ryan Rohlinger to minor league camp.
Marlins: Cleared the final hurdle yesterday in securing financing for their new stadium, and could break ground yet this summer.
Padres: Signed Shawn Hill to a minor league deal.
Rays: Returned Rule 5 pick Derek Rodriguez to the White Sox. Also, B.J. Upton is unlikely to be ready to start the regular season after taking a pitch off his hand in a minor league game.
Reds: Released Daryle Ward and Aaron Fultz.

It's good news and bad news with Nate McLouth this spring. As The Book Blog notes, he appears to understand the sabermetrics of base stealing, but is completely lost on fielding metrics.

Can one get The Book on tape? If so, Alfonso Soriano and all of his neighbors could listen to it on his ridiculous car stereo.

Denard Span will have to settle for a smaller stereo after paying his fine for sloppy pants-wearing.

As we've mentioned previously, Corey Koskie retired this week, ending his attempted return from post concussion syndrome. Minor League Ball takes a look at his unlikely career.

Finally, despite the fact that he was 42 years old, hadn't pitched in over a year and was unsigned for 2009, it was big news yesterday when Curt Schilling announced his retirement. The news was so big, in fact, that ESPN didn't even have time to make sure they weren't showing a picture of Jose Canseco instead.

Drink up.

Reds vs. Astros: Eyewitness Report

BK — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 01:38:07 -0000

This was the last game of my little trip. The highlights:

The story of the game: Aaron Harang and Homer Bailey look much, much better than last year. I don't think anyone needs another confirmation of this, but yes, Aaron Harang looks much thinner than last year. It's noticable.
Harang was spotting his fastball for called strikes all over the place, and I could tell his breaking stuff was working, even sitting on the 3rd base line.
And, after seeing Homer pitch his two innings, I'm starting to get anxious about this rotation. Notice that when I say that, I say "rotation", because if he keeps pitching like that, I think he's forcing their hand to put him in the rotation. They told him going in to ST that he had to earn his rotation spot, and well, he's getting it done. He gave up a few hits, but unlike he would have last season, he stayed calm, buckled down, and made pitches to get out of it.
That being said, his line wouldn't have been nearly as great as it was without a fantastic diving catch in RF by Jonny Gomes. I think watching him the last 4 days has really gone to confirm the fact that I think he's still the favorite for the last bench spot. Dusty seems to be auditioning all of his backup OFers for 1B spots to back up Votto if needed (Exhibit A: Jacque Jones played a few innings there today), and Gomes showed the other day that he can handle it if needed. He's hitting, he's playing D, he's hustling, he's on the team.
Another guy who I think has to head north is Chris Dickerson. This guy keeps hitting, and keeps stealing bases, and is another guy with the attitude you want out of a major league ballplayer. How they'll be used is anybody's guess at this point, but I think they both go north.
Does that mean Hopper is the odd man out here? I don't think he's done much to help his cause so far, even with a hit today.
Arthur Rhodes looked pretty darn masterful on the mound. The first two hitters he faced both struck out on 3 pitches. Glad to see him and Weathers bouncing back from rough outings in the early spring in the last few days. Cordero, you're up next.
Burton looked meh, and Roenicke looked good.
Oh yeah, and Laynce Nix hit a shot over the wall in CF in the 8th. He's yet another guy who really really wants to make this team. Will there be enough spots for all these guys? Whoever said it yesterday said it best, we're going to have a tough AAA team this season (and hell, AA too).
Darnell McDonald was 2-for-2 with a SB. I don't think there will be room for him out of spring training, but he keeps sounding like the type of guy to get a midseason callup after hitting somewhere in the .330s in the IL this year.
Francisco looks pretty good playing D at 3B. Janish looked better. If he could hit, his defense is good enough to play anywhere in the infield.

Pics of the day are after the jump.

Roar.

Daryle Ward batting.

Harang throwing a pitch.

Homer getting it done.

Jonny Gomes.

Roenicke throwing heat.

These girls were walking around the concourse, so I got a pic. This one's for you, Madville.

And this one belongs to the Reds!

Name that Red!