SB Nation - Matt Murton

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:36:15 -0000

by Matt Slocum - AP

Today's Frosty Mug is so full, I didn't even have time to caption this picture of Randy Wolf.

Some things to read while evening out the teams.

It turned out to be a pretty active first day of the Winter Meetings. The Brewers were the talk of the late night rumor mill, based on reports that they're close to signing a three year deal with Randy Wolf (also noted in Rumorville). Tom H. says the deal is rumored to be in the $25-27 million range, and is also quantifying the amount of smoke surrounding it.

With that said, the deal mustn't be done yet, because Arn Tellem, who represents Wolf, is meeting with the Mets this morning. Jon Heyman says the Mets aren't willing to offer Wolf a three year deal.

Is this the move you were hoping for from the Brewers? I'd be happy with it at this point, as long as the price isn't much above $27 million. There's always some risk involved, but this is almost certainly a better deal than, for example, the four year deal Joel Pineiro is seeking.

Wolf might not be the only starting pitcher the Brewers acquire this week. They've reportedly discussed a deal with the Mets that would send Corey Hart to New York for John Maine, a former student of Rick Peterson who has missed most of the last year with shoulder issues (FanShot). It's unclear how much fire is behind this smoke, but the Mets are also rumored to be discussing a similar trade with the Angels, with Juan Rivera taking Hart's place.

The Brewers also added a little depth to their middle infield yesterday, claiming shortstop Luis Cruz off waivers from the Pirates (FanShot). Cruz played seven positions (everything but pitcher and catcher) last season in AAA, but has virtually zero ability with the bat (a .274 OBP in AAA last season), and Adam McCalvy confirmed the move was made for minor league, not major league depth. The Brewers don't have a true shortstop prospect in the minors above Brent Brewer and Josh Prince, neither of whom played above A-ball last season.

The Brewer bullpen suffered a blow yesterday, as Mark DiFelice underwent surgery to repair damage to his labrum and rotator cuff, and will miss the entire 2010 season (FanShot). DiFelice is 33 and undergoing his second major shoulder procedure, but intends to try to pitch in the majors again in 2011, telling Adam McCalvy "I don't want it to end like this."

This raises the stakes a little bit in the search for additional bullpen help, but the Crew won't be getting said help from Rafael Betancourt. Late in the day yesterday it was reported that the Brewers were unlikely to lure Betancourt away from a return to the Rockies. I haven't seen it confirmed, but I'm pretty sure he accepted arbitration late last night.

Looking back at a rumor from the weekend, In-Between Hops has come out against a Jeff Suppan-for-Juan Pierre deal, fearing the extra $4 million in salary the Brewers would have to take on would make it difficult for them to sign a pitcher like Randy Wolf.

And, looking back even farther, Dave Allen of FanGraphs has a look at the pitch-blocking ability of Gregg Zaun. Ken Macha is making me crazy: I should see this as a positive, but instead I see it as the excuse that might be used to keep an underperforming/overused Zaun in the lineup and a more deserving catcher on the bench.

In the minors, Brewerfan.net has a new Power 50 up. It's always interesting to see how guys move up and down the charts during the offseason. This edition's big gainers were Kentrail Davis, Jake Odorizzi and John Axford, with Hernan Iribarren, Chris Cody and Max Walla losing significant ground.

And around here, we're looking for your help to select a Brewer All-Decade Team in a series we're calling Making Your '00 Face. That link will take you to the voting for first base, where Prince Fielder has opened up what will likely turn out to be an insurmountable lead. Voting for second base will open at 4 pm today.

Around baseball:

Braves: Reliever Rafael Soriano has accepted the team's offer of arbitration.
Cardinals: Have agreed to a one year, $7.5 million deal for Brad Penny, pending a physical.
Nationals: Signed Ivan Rodriguez to a two year deal worth $6 million, acquired reliever Brian Bruney from the Yankees for a PTBNL, and released reliever Saul Rivera.
Pirates: Signed reliever Vinnie Chulk to a minor league deal.
Rangers: Acquired pitcher Clay Rapada from the Tigers for a PTBNL or cash.
Red Sox: Signed pitcher Fabio Castro and re-signed Kason Gabbard.
Rockies: Released outfielder Matt Murton, who is expected to spend 2010 in Japan.
Tigers: Re-signed Adam Everett to a one year deal, and signed reliever Brad Thomas, who has spent the last two seasons pitching in Korea.
Twins: Carl Pavano has accepted the team's arbitration offer.

The Rule 5 Draft is on Thursday, so I'm almost done burying you in links like these: Harry Pavlidis of The Hardball Times and Lisa Winston of MiLB.com have a look at several players who recently played in the Arizona Fall League and were left unprotected in the draft.

Competition is heating up in the market for Edwin Jackson. One report yesterday had the Tigers receiving 12 offers for his services. I guess that's what you get when you put a pitcher who threw over 200 effective innings last season and is due about $5 million on the market.

Speaking of pitchers the Brewers might be interested in, Justin Duchscherer declined the A's offer of salary arbitration.

I think most of us will be happy to see these former Brewers sign elsewhere, and keeping one of them in the division would be a double bonus: Jason Kendall is reportedly drawing interest from the Royals, and Braden Looper has expressed interest in pitching for the Cubs.

In case you were wondering, Keith Law has an explanation of how the Winter Meetings, usually held in a warm vacation spot, ended up in Indianapolis. The cold temps and snow haven't kept people from exchanging some tidbits of info you probably would never have known without the internet (and might not have missed):

There was apparently a small tiff between Scott Boras and new Hall of Famer Whitey Herzog over comments Herzog made about Matt Holliday, a Boras client.
Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez didn't shoot anything while out deer hunting with Bobby Cox last week.
Former D-Back, Indian, Ray and Ranger Nick Bierbrodt, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2004, is a ttempting a comeback.
New Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous is battling a cold this week, so he's not shaking anyone's hand.
Speaking of the Blue Jays, radio reporter Mike Wilner has an annoying ring tone and left his phone in the media workroom yesterday.
Craig Calcaterra brought an airport card to the meetings, making him one of the few writers not reliant on slow internet service.

And, of course we're all having fun this week, but Paul DePodesta has a reminder for all of us that many of this week's rumors will be just that, and not to get too worked up over them. Of course, no one ever gets too worked up around here, right?

Away from the meetings, here's a strange story. After months of investigation, Major League Baseball has concluded that new Twins prospect Miguel Angel Sano, who claims to be 16, is somewhere between 16 and 18. Sano also recently changed his name to Miguel Jean. If he turns out to be Miguel Tejada in disguise, the Twins will probably be very upset.

On this day in 1991, Brewer reliever Julio Machado was arrested for murder after shooting a passenger in a car that had just been involved in an accident. Machado was later found guilty and served 12 years in prison.

I don't have any Brewer birthdays today, but it is a Woot-off day, so there's that.

Drink up.

Tuesday Rockpile: Rafael Betancourt is officially a Rockie again

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:42:20 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

These two guys' fates seem to have shifted a bit.

Browse more photos »

Some GM's, like David Dombrowski, choose to use the Winter Meetings to contact every team about Edwin Jackson - including the Rockies - only to pull him off the table. Instead, it seems Dan O'Dowd spent the majority of his time secluded in his room talking with his own players' agents yesterday.

Dan O'Dowd and Rafael Betancourt had danced in and out of option year, two year contract and three year contract discussions, with the Betancourt ultimately accepting arbitration (Renck) late last night. He'll likely make close to what he did had the Rockies exercised his option.

Thomas Harding reports that, as expected, Jason Marquis has declined arbitration (Harding), rewarding the Rockies with a sandwich pick for having the guts to risk dealing with his eight figure salary had he accepted. In truth, you would be hard pressed to find a more clearcut case for declining $10+mil guaranteed around the league.

Troy Renck reported that O'Dowd has been working on multi-year deals for Huston Street, Clint Barmes and Chris Iannetta, as fanshotted below by Hizilla. Street has been seeking $30mil, but the ultimate offer should be closer to $25mil.

As for locking up Iannetta (Harding), the deal is a buy-low contract that would buy out his arbitration years. It would be unlikely to pay him much more than he would receive those years. Harding notes that Iannetta actually improved his slugging percentage last season by twenty points. Who knew? A quick note from the bottom of the article. Dan O'Dowd said "[Franklin Morales] is going back into our bullpen."

As noted early in the day, the Rockies cleared space for Ryan Spilborghs (Harding). In deciding not to sell low on the gaucho, Dan O'Dowd had to tell Matt Murton he was once again squeezed from a deserved MLB roster spot. He was then sold to a team in Japan. I hope he can return to get another shot on this side of the Pacific in 2011.

For a brief wrap of NL West Rumors from the meetings, take the jump.

Arizona

MLBTR reports several teams are interested in reliever JJ Putz, including Arizona.

The Diamondbacks reportedly pushed yesterday's blockbuster trade, in which they would send Max Scherzer and one or two prospects while receiving Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. The deal would also involve Curtis Granderson. While Joel Sherman called the deal dead and Buster Olney is "unsure if the embers can be re-lit", there is one optimist. Jon Paul Morosi reports it is still a possibility.

Arizona beat writer Nick Piecoro's head must have been spinning, as he clearly disagreed with the idea of offering Scherzer for Jackson.

Los Angeles

While Los Angeles has no plans to decrease payroll (Dylan Hernandez, LA Times), they don't seem to be in much of a place of power. The Mets reportedly agreed to send Luis Castillo to Los Angeles for Juan Pierre, a move that would improve the Dodgers' starting lineup and take an expensive bench player off the books, but Ned Colletti wants pitching in return.

The Blue Jays talked to the Dodgers about Roy Halladay (Jayson Stark) but there is expectedly no match there

Colletti is also open to dealing lefty George Sherrill.

San Diego

The Padres will apparently non-tender Kevin Correia MLBTR), who was clearly their most valuable pitcher from start to finish. The former Giant had just a $750k base salary last season. It's a very sad cheap move from the Friars, but I guess they'll need to the money to pay their closer. While Heath Bell is one of their most enticing trade chips, San Diego's new GM Jed Hoyer seems inclined to keep Bell (Corey Brock, MLB.com), who would garner about a $5mil salary next season.

San Diego has also been linked to outfielder Reed Johnson (Bill Center, San Diego Union Tribune) and are now on the prowl for a backup catcher with the loss of Henry Blanco (Center).

San Francisco

St. Louis put a dent in the Giants' rotational depth, as the Cards signed Brad Penny to a one -year $7.5mil base salary contract (Buster Olney). He will likely have a physical tomorrow to complete the deal.

MLB.com's Chris Haft has some Giants nuggets - Eugenio Velez or Andres Torres will be their leadoff hitter, neither Pablo Sandoval nor Ryan Garko will catch at all next year, and the Giants might attempt to acquire Juan Rivera if the Angels sign Jason Bay.

Speaking of Garko, he is still "on the bubble" for being non-tendered a contract, according to Sabean (Andrew Baggarly).

Only one NL team remains a serious player for Dan Uggla, that team being San Francisco (Joe Frisaro, MLB.com). The Orioles are the most likely landing spot.

Twitter Is Ridiculous Applesauce - Omar Meets The Agents, Juan Pierre Is Available And Nonsensical Rumors

James Kannengieser — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:05:48 -0000

It seems reporters/"journalists" are neglecting to consider source bias and failing to corroborate rumors with multiple sources before posting on Twitter or a blog. All in the name of page hitzzz I suppose.

Meet the Mets

Omar Minaya met with the agents for various players last night, including John Lackey, Jason Marquis, Bengie Molina, Joel Pineiro and Randy Wolf.

In an interview with Daily 'Stache, Adam Rubin says the Mets should focus on pitching this offseason, namely Lackey. He also says Jeff Francoeur is the most reliable provider of good quotes.

Steve Henson says that 3-4 teams are interested in Dodgers OF Juan Pierre. A trade for Pierre would likely include a bad contract player, AKA Luis Castillo. No thanks on Pierre. Speaking of undesirable players, Jerry Crasnick reports that Elmer Dessens will likely re-sign with the Mets. If it's a major league deal you better get ready for Dessens Avenue.

Ken Davidoff tweets that Yorvit Torrealba is on the Mets radar. Interesting, considering the bizarre chain of events involving the Mets and Torrealba two offseasons ago.

Joel Sherman reports that a John Maine for Corey Hart trade is being discussed. Hart is just 27 years old and two years removed from a 4+ win season but I'd rather hold on to Maine. Will at BlueAndOrange agrees and thinks the deal is plausible, especially considering Omar Minaya's affinity for bad corner outfielders.

Mets Fever is also a fan of Adam Kennedy. If Castillo can be moved, Kennedy is the way to go.

LOL Rumors of the Day

Early yesterday it was reported that Pat Burrell had been traded to the Mets. This story was debunked almost immediately and the original story has been taken down from PhillyBlurbs, the website with the original report. Folks, cool it with your bogus anonymous sources, you're not providing a valuable service and it's annoying. No one is impressed.

Ed Price of Fanhouse tweeted the following yesterday:

Rumor that #Mets acquire Edwin Jackson

This was followed shortly by a clarification tweet from Price:

To be clear: #Mets and Edwin Jackson not confirmed. Heard in the lobby.

Why not get confirmation before posting the rumor? Does "heard in the lobby" count as a reliable source nowadays?

Around MLB

The Nationals gave Pudge Rodriguez 2 years, $6 million for some reason.

Randy Wolf reportedly signed with the Brewers for 3 years and an unknown dollar amount.

Chuck Brownson at The Hardball Times discusses swaps for bad contracts, including Dontrelle Willis, Milton Bradley, Gil Meche and Kevin Millwood.

Tim Marchman thinks an intra-Chicago trade between the Cubs and White Sox involving Milton Bradley makes sense.

Matt Murton, a notorious ginger and player good enough to start on many major league teams, is going to play for the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. I wonder if Murton realizes he's good enough for MLB.

Off topic link of the day: Tom Tango reviews the incredibly enjoyable movie Taken and heaps justifiable praise on Liam Neeson. I agree with him, Taken is fantastic.

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

Tuesday Rockpile: CHONE is back in town (not Figgins)

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:41:30 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

CHONE doesn't buy CarGo's strong 2nd half.

Browse more photos »

The 2010 CHONE Projections have been posted. I recommend switching to wide view to see the table.

In case you're curious what would happen if Colorado opened the season with Jeff Kindel, Rex Rundgren, Daniel Mayora and Darin Holcomb in the infield, their projections (among others) are in the link. However, I filtered out the minor leaguers, and here are the projected main contributors for 2010.

Note CHONE tempers its expectations on Tulo and Cargo, which is typical for a projection system for young players. Exceeding those expectations would give the Rockies not only on-field success but offensive starpower the team lacked.

Player	Pos	Age	G	HR	RBI	SB	CS	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Helton, Todd	1B	36	134	13	68	0	1	582	.284	.385	.430	.364
Young, Eric	2B	25	149	8	38	39	18	547	.276	.347	.398	.332
Barmes, Clint	2B	31	136	15	58	8	6	509	.258	.306	.420	.314
Stewart, Ian	3B	25	145	22	75	6	4	499	.263	.349	.483	.359
Iannetta, Chris	C	27	105	15	53	0	0	384	.260	.370	.465	.367
Fowler, Dexter	CF	24	124	4	31	21	11	414	.271	.365	.391	.338
Smith, Seth	OF	27	135	15	60	4	2	428	.291	.374	.489	.376
Hawpe, Brad	OF	31	144	23	86	1	2	572	.271	.365	.482	.368
Gonzalez, Carlos	OF	24	134	15	66	12	6	462	.285	.342	.478	.354
Murton, Matt	OF	28	129	10	52	5	2	438	.280	.349	.427	.343
Spilborghs, Ryan	OF	30	127	10	49	7	4	398	.271	.352	.424	.342
Tulowitzki, Troy	SS	25	142	22	80	10	8	580	.292	.369	.497	.373

Should we be surprised few outside of Colorado expected the Rockies to make the playoffs down the stretch? The Rockies won with depth, which just isn't sexy. They are projected to have great depth again in 2010, with only Clint Barmes having a below average wOBA. Their third "most valuable" hitter in 2009 came off the bench in a third of his games. The 3-4 hitters combined for 15 HR in 2008. The team's two All-Stars combined for just eight AB's in the playoffs. Th top three hitters were only 15th in WAR in MLB, behind the Padres, Nats and Mariners as well as every playoff team/contender sans Atlanta and the Giants. In addition to the team's history, is it any wonder the Rockies weren't viewed as legitimate?

The idea that Rockies pitching can be good has yet to truly sink in among casual fans, and Joe Fan/John Kruk don't have the time/desire to evaluate depths of teams. They look for starpower, and admittedly, the Rockies were a little shy in that department last season. Should we see a repeat performance from Cargo and Tulo in 2010, there may be some recognition of the mountain time zone, although truly, it was a joy to expect and then see the Rockies defy expectations down the stretch.

Links

The Rockies and Diamondbacks officially broke ground on their spring training facility in Scottsdale, Arizona yesterday. It is set to be completed approximately 435 days from now, just in time for use for the 2011 season.

As linked in the Rockpile yesterday, Juan Morillo is headed to Japan. Remember when Dan O'Dowd replaced him on the roster in April with some dude from Tampa Bay? Good move.

Patrick Saunders opines that Dexter Fowler deserved better than eighth place in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. I would disagree with his assessment that this is a "banner year for rookies," but I am a bit surprised he got no more love than Gerardo Parra or Everth Cabrera.

Fangraphs awarded their 2009 Carter-Batista Award, an award given to a player whose perceived value is most inflated by RBI. The winner was rumored to be acquired by the Rockies before the season, while Bengie Molina tops the three-year leaderboard.

The Hardball Times compares Jonathan Sanchez and Clayton Kershaw, noting both electric young NL West southpaws have something else in common - traffic on the basepaths. Who would you rather have on your team in 2010? Troy Patterson's answer may surprise you.

The State of the Rockies: Post GM Meetings Update

Jabberwocky — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 04:42:43 -0000

In what will be a semi-weekly occurrence from now until January on Purple Row Academy, I'm going to update my post on the State of the Rockies. In other words, I will update my loyal readers (all three of you)--as well as anyone ~~stupid~~ intrepid enough to follow me after the jump as to the roster framework the Rockies are looking at as some big offseason deadlines approach.

This week, I'll be looking at what has happened thus far for the Rockies and what that means going forward. Also discussed will be the Rockies' impending decision on Rafael Betancourt's club option and how the Rockies are affected by the Elias Free Agent classifications.

By next week, we should have a better idea of what the Rockies are doing as the beginning of free agency and the deadline to set 40 man rosters approaches (November 20th).

Jump with me, brave souls, to roster-building nirvana...

Before I begin, let me first note that this analysis will be limited to what I can project the 25 man roster to be, since I'm forecasting the 2010 ODP (which only includes the active roster and DL). For most of the players not on the 25 man roster but who are on the 40 man, they will be paid the prorated minimum should they make the Show and considerably less in the minor leagues.

What the Rockies Already Owe in 2010

This category is for money that the Rockies have already committed to the 2010 roster. Note that this only includes players who are under contract with the Rockies (not just under team control), giving management concrete salary obligations to work around. This data, as well as much of the data for the rest of this study, was contributed by the incomparable Jeff Euston at Cot's Contracts.

For each player I'll give their name, approximate ML service time, 2010 salary, and minimum future salary obligations.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0

Total		$48,058,000	$72,283,000

This list of players the Rockies definitely owe money to next year has become more certain, especially since Colorado declined the options of Embree and Torrealba as I predicted. Embree won't be back, but as RG wrote this morning, the door is open for Torrealba to return.

Pre-Arbitration Players

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$2,897,390

The main difference on this pre-arb chart is that I've taken out Paul Phillips, who was outrighted on Monday to clear up 40 man roster spots and looks like he'll become a free agent. That leaves a hole in the projected roster at backup catcher, perhaps to be filled by Torrealba, a cheaper in-house option such as Mike McKenry, or even a free agent catcher.

Even with the extra spot in the roster open, I'm not using Matt Murton to fill it because he would be the sixth outfielder. One of Murton, Ryan Spilborghs, and Hawpe will likely be gone--and more than one leaving is possible.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Since my previous post two weeks ago, the Rockies have avoided salary arbitration with two of their prospective cases, relievers Randy Flores and Matt Belisle. The Rockies were able to secure the services of these two relievers for less than I had predicted--Flores for $650,000 and Belisle for $850000, raises of 6.25 and 8.33% respectively. Both contracts have incentives based on number of appearances, neither of which I predict will be triggered.

With Belisle and Flores in the fold, the Rockies stil have eight potential arbitration cases to negotiate--including that of Garrett Atkins, who is almost certain to be non-tendered. The Rockies may (should) do this before the November 20th deadline for setting the 40 man roster in order to protect another prospect from the Rule 5 draft. Let's face it: Atkins won't engender much interest from teams at his current price point (minimum of $5.64 million). For that reason I'm removing him from the below chart. Bold numbers represent concrete salaries, not just predictions

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	6.25%
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	8.33%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$25,837,560	141.06%

As you can see, this is considerably less than two weeks ago, due mostly to Atkins but also because Belisle and Flores were signed more cheaply than I had anticipated. Another effect of Atkins being removed is that the Rockies' average player salary increase from arbitration is closer to reflecting the league average of 172%.

Of the seven arbitration cases that remain, I could really see De La Rosa and maybe Spilborghs getting to actual salary arbitration. De La Rosa in particular could garner a larger salary than I predict here (more in the $6.5 million range). Meanwhile, Barmes and Street seem more likley to take the multi-year contract route and might have lower salaries this year than I'd projected.

Estimated Rockies 2010 ODP

This calculation represents the status quo, if the Rockies neither re-sign any of their free agents nor get rid of any players under team control (besides Atkins, that is) and remain dormant in free agency. The resulting roster would have 22 players on it with Buchholz starting the year on the DL (therefore the salary of three players would need to be added in) and would be paid:

Multi-Year Contracts: $48,058,000

Pre-Arbitration Contracts: $2,897,390

Arbitration Contracts: $25,837,560

Total ODP: $76,792,950

In other words, a roster that still has three spots open is about $1.6 million over last year's ODP.

The Betancourt Variable

The variables as far as the Rockies are concerned from now until November 20th are their free agents. The most pressing and important of these players to the front office is set-up man Rafael Betancourt, whose $5.4 million club option expires tomorrow.

Betancourt has reportedly already turned down a multi-year offer from the Rockies, so it is important for Dan O'Dowd to decide whether he wants the 35 year old Betancourt to be the set-up man next year or not. If the option is declined, Betancourt may still be retained, but the Rockies will have to bid against other teams for his services.

I've made my opinion on the issue of bullpen spending pretty clear--I believe that bullpen performance is highly variable, very fungible, and an inefficient use of salary dollars. Obviously many people disagree with me on this, but I'd prefer the Rockies to bring back Jose Contreras as a combo set-up man rotation insurance.

As Thomas Harding notes, the Rockies are interested in re-signing Contreras and Joe Beimel, who combined will probably make about the same as Betancourt's club option.

Free Agent Classification

Another reason for the Rockies to perhaps let Betancourt go would be his status as a Type A free agent. I wrote about free agency compensation several months ago, but the gist is that the top 20% of players in their positional groups (1B/DH/OF, 2B/SS/3B, C, SP, RP) as calculated by Elias are classified as Type A free agents. The formula for these calculations is complicated, convoluted, and confidential, rarely making a list that makes much sense.

In return for losing one of these players in free agency, a club receives the signing club's first round pick in the Rule 4 draft as well as a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. As I discussed in my analysis of the Betancourt trade back in July, the draft picks from a type A free agent are typically worth $5 million to a team. In fact, in that article I recommended that the Rockies decline Betancourt's option and retain the draft picks.

Unfortunately, the Rockies would have to offer Betancourt arbitration in order to receive the draft picks in return--and in this lackluster market, the risk is high that Betancourt will accept and get even more than the $5.4 million club option. The same logic applies to Colorado's other free agents. If the Rockies want to take advantage of the Type B status (sandwich pick as compensation) of Jason Marquis, Torrealba, and Beimel they would have to offer arbitration--and there is a relatively high risk that these players would accept.

Is the risk worth it? For someone like Betancourt, who probably won't get a commensurate offer on the open market, especially with his type A status, the proposition is too chancy. For Marquis, who is likely to draw strong interest in a weak starting pitching market from his hometown Mets, the risk might be low enough to offer him arbitration. My personal view is that Colorado should offer arbitration to Beimel because his arbitration cost would be around his market cost--relatively low. Marquis could command $10-12 million in arbitration, so the Rockies need to be certain that he would decline before they offer it to him.

Next week the picture for the Betancourt situation should be a little clearer as the option decision will be made and the 40 man roster will be solidified. Until then, don't touch that stove. It's hot.

Poll

Should the Rockies exercise their $5.4 million club option on Rafael Betancourt?

Yes. He was nails last season and provides a solid bridge to Huston Street.

111 votes

No, the Rockies should try to sign him at a lower price over a multi-year deal.

131 votes

No, Betancourt is old and signing him would tie up too much salary to the bullpen.

40 votes

282 votes | Poll has closed

Just What is Brad Hawpe Worth Exactly?

Jabberwocky — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 00:45:49 -0000

In the comments of my column last week about the Rockies' contract situations, much of the discussion centered around what the Rockies should do with outfielder Brad Hawpe this offseason.

Brad Hawpe

#11 / Right Field / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-3

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jun 22, 1979

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brad Hawpe	145	501	82	143	42	3	23	86	79	145	1	3	.285	.384	.519

Dan O'Dowd has said that Hawpe wasn't on the market, inferring that he wouldn't move Hawpe unless it was for a Matt Holliday-type return. Hawpe is due $7.5 million in 2010 with a $10 million team option in 2011 that will be voided if he is traded--meaning that for other teams he'd be a one year rental. Also of note is that Hawpe would likely qualify as a Type A free agent for the team that traded for him, netting that team two first round draft picks as compensation were Hawpe to walk away after the one year.

Here's the thing: Hawpe rode a hot streak with the bat in 2009 to the All-Star game but came back down to earth hard in the second half, all the while providing subpar defense. In fact, according to FanGraphs, Hawpe's batting value was virtually canceled out by his fielding last year. Due to this fact, despite Hawpe's offensive production he was worth only 1.3 WAR in 2009--which is actually right in line with his $5.5 million compensation.

The Rockies have a good problem with outfield depth, as Hawpe just may be the fourth best outfielder on the Rockies' roster going into 2010, behind Seth Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, and an improving Dexter Fowler. Because the Rockies will have an abundance of potential salary arbitration cases this winter, Hawpe's contract may be a little too unwieldy to remain on the roster--O'Dowd may need Hawpe's money to pay for a player like Rafael Betancourt, Jason Giambi, or the replacement of Garrett Atkins.

After the jump, I'll use the Trade Value Calculator, originally developed by Beyond the Boxscore's Sky Kalkman, to determine Hawpe's value to both the Rockies and to a prospective trade partner, as well as a short foray into simple economic theory.

Projecting Hawpe in 2010

Adhering strictly to the FanGraphs calculation of WAR, as I outlined a few months back, I was able to come up with a reasonable projection for Brad Hawpe in 2010.

First, and most importantly, was the determination of Hawpe's projected 2010 wOBA. I used a combination of Bill James' projections for Hawpe in 2010 (which admittedly are a little optimistic) tempered with my own observations (Hawpe won't get as many PAs as James projects, nor will he play as many games due to the Rockies OF depth).

Using a baseline of 575 PA, 136 games played, and 1150 innings, I came up with the following values for Hawpe:

For batting, I used wOBA = .384, which is pretty much in line for Hawpe (.383 and .385 in 2008 and 2009), leading to a total of 26 wRAA. Fielding was a little trickier, but I used Hawpe's career FRAA total (-90.8) and divided it by his total innings played on defense, then multiplied it by my projected 1150 innings to get a 2010 FRAA total of -18.6.

Replacement ((#PA/600) * 20) and Positional ((GP/162) * -7.5) adjustments were relatively simple, with Hawpe getting 19.2 and -6.3 RAR in those categories.

All told, I'm projecting Hawpe to produce a little over 2 WAR in 2010.

Hawpe's Value to Rockies and Others

In other words, teams looking to trade for Hawpe as a one year rental that will play a corner outfield position can expect to receive this much net value:

Brad Hawpe

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)	Sal (M)
2010	$7.5	2.0	$9.3	$1.8	$7.5
2011
FA Picks			$5.0
Total	$7.5	2.0	$14.3	$6.8

Looking at Hawpe from a purely quantitative standpoint, what is represented above should be his perceived value to other teams. However, as has been suggested numerous times, Hawpe would be more valuable to an AL club as a DH.

Projecting Hawpe as a DH would mean using the positional adjustment for a DH (-17.5 RAA) while erasing his negative fielding impact. As a result, Hawpe's new projected WAR would increase to over 3 for 2010:

Brad Hawpe

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)	Sal (M)
2010	$7.5	3.0	$13.9	$6.4	$7.5
2011
FA Picks			$5.0
Total	$7.5	3.0	$18.9	$11.4

As you can see, Hawpe could be a very valuable commodity if he were simply to leave his glove at home and hit full-time in the American League. Of course, with the AL currently being the stronger league, there is no guarantee that Hawpe's projected numbers would come to pass.

Using a similar process, I projected Hawpe to regress slightly in 2011 in his age 32 season to about 1.5 WAR. This season plus his Type A free agent status affords this picture of Hawpe's value to the Rockies over the life of his contract:

Brad Hawpe

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)	Sal (M)
2009	$7.5	2.0	$9.3	$1.8	$7.5
2010	$10.0	1.5	$7.0	-$3.0	$10.0
FA Picks			$5.0
Total	$17.5	3.5	$21.3	$3.8

So what does this mean? It means that Hawpe is much more valuable as a trade asset to other teams than he is to the Rockies. Sure, he'll provide 3.5 WAR over two years to the Rockies, a surplus value of $3.8 million, but Hawpe would be worth three times as much to an AL team as a DH if he voided his 2010 option.

It's the type of tempting market inefficiency that the Rockies need to continually exploit if they want to survive and thrive with their mid-market payroll. Hawpe's market value to other teams is increased due to his status as an All-Star and as a potential veteran leader--a quality that Hawpe purportedly utilizes with the Rockies.

I wish that I could put a concrete value on such intangible contributions, but there's no way that those intangibles are worth $3 million. The extra value in addition to the short-term flexibility provided to O'Dowd by freeing up some payroll space is simply too good to pass up. But there's one more reason to make a trade...and that's where the economics come into play.

Opportunity Cost

For those of you who have never taken an economics course, an opportunity cost is the value of the next best alternative which, as the result of making a decision, you have foregone the use of. In other words, the opportunity cost is the other stuff that you could be doing with your time or money, and it factors heavily into an economic decision.

What this means on a baseball level is if the Rockies were to get rid of Hawpe, they would not replace Hawpe with nobody and lose 2.0 WAR. They would instead gain incrementally increased production from players like Smith, Fowler, Gonzalez, Spilborghs, and Murton--who would benefit from more playing time. How much?

Consider this theoretical situation (I say theoretical because I doubt Tracy would play Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez regularly):

Smith would likely be the primary beneficiary of Hawpe moving on, gaining about 175 more PA, while Fowler would get another 80 and Gonzalez another 60.

Originally, using Bill James' projections (again, these are usually optimistic) Smith, Fowler, and Gonzalez were projected to produce 3.05, 2.46, and 4.09 respectively. With an increase in opportunities and the same rate stats these numbers for Smith, Fowler, and Gonzalez improve to 4.60, 2.89, and 4.55. Incrementally, this is a net improvement in WAR due to Hawpe's absence of 2.45--more value than Hawpe himself would have provided in 2010 and at a $7.5 million cost savings. Makes sense, right?

In this case, even if the Rockies were to trade Hawpe for a pile of nothing they would actually be improved due to the opportunity costs being higher than the potential economic gain of having Hawpe stay.

Of course, it really isn't as simple as that. The scenario above is something of a best case scenario for Colorado. Should any of the three starters have an injury, having Hawpe as a safety net would be better than a Matt Murton or Ryan Spilborghs to fill in. In addition, Smith seems to be doomed to a platoon situation in the outfield, making it unlikely that he'd actually be that productive in 2010.

However, even if the other outfielders are not up to the task of replacing Hawpe's 2 WAR, the payroll flexibility gained by dealing Hawpe (or the pieces received in return) will also likely produce WAR for the Rockies now or in the future, further hedging against the risk of the trade.

Bottom Line

While Brad Hawpe's value might have taken a hit after his cold second half of 2009, the lefty has a great deal of value (real and perceived) to other teams (especially in the AL as a DH)--more value than he has to the Rockies over the remainder of his contract due to their depth at the position and the higher relative value of payroll space to them. However, this value is more likely than not to decrease as the 2010 season progresses, so the sooner the Rockies make a move the better.

The Rockies should be actively searching for a trade partner and be willing to accept a package built around a young back-end starter and a B prospect or corner infield depth in exchange for the 30 year old Hawpe. Should no reasonable offers emerge, then the Rockies have a pretty nice Plan B too.

Economics demands it!

The State of the Colorado Rockies (Pre-Free Agency)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 22:38:04 -0000

While Major League Baseball has yet to crown a champion, the Rockies' season is (unfortunately) over and it is time to look forward towards the swiftly oncoming offseason. The Rockies have quite a to-do list this year.

The clock for Colorado and the rest of MLB starts ticking when the Fall (Winter?) Classic concludes, as teams have 15 days to exclusively negotiate with their prospective free agents. After that time (let's say November 20th), free agents are, well, free to go where their services are most sought after. The original team has until December 12th to tender 2010 contracts to their free agents.

For those players (like Garrett Atkins) who have less than six years of MLB service time, their teams control their rights, but must tender the player a contract offer or salary arbitration, by December 1st--with the player needing to make a decision by the 7th. As a result, at baseball's Winter Meetings from December 7-10, teams will have some idea as to where the market stands.

Finally, December 8th is a very important deadline, as it is the day in which MLB clubs must set their 40 man rosters in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft, which occurs on the 10th.

These dates and other offseason deadlines are explained in more detail here.

To learn a little bit more about some of the topics I just touched upon, please check out these previous sessions of Purple Row Academy, which I'll be updating over the offseason:

Trades and Contract Tenders

Rule 5 Draft

Now that you understand a little better the timeline that Dan O'Dowd and the Rockies are working with, I'll break down the Rockies' contract situations (and the decisions to be made therein) extensively after the jump.

What the Rockies Already Owe in 2010

For each player I'll give their name, approximate ML service time, 2010 salary, and minimum future salary obligations. This means that I assume that the Rockies decline every club option.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Additional Minimum Obligation	Years After 2010

Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0

Total		$48,058,000	$72,283,000

This chart shows that the Rockies, even if they do not re-sign Torrealba or Embree, have committed over $48 million to seven players on the 2010 roster. And these are only the players who the Rockies know how much they have to pay. Again, this is if the Rockies don't pick up any club options on these players.

Pre-Arbitration Players

For the players listed below, the Rockies have the option of keeping them under control for several more years and can do so cheaply in 2010 (for a price between $400,000 and $460,000). For the purposes of this exercise I'm assuming a 3% raise over 2009 salary. This is assuming that the Rockies let Embree and Torrealba walk and find internal replacements. The pre-arbitration players:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

This chart tells us that the Rockies will be paying a little over $3.3 million to eight players on the 25 man roster. This fact again emphasizes the importance of teams maximizing the value of young players.

The player whose omission sticks out on that list is Matt Murton. With his service time, he would seem to be eligible for Super Two Arbitration status, but due to the fact that he did not accrue at least 86 days of ML service time in 2009 he is rendered ineligible for salary arbitration. At least, I think so. Of course, unless the Rockies unload either Hawpe or Ryan Spilborghs, Murton won't be on the roster--and since this projection is based upon roster stability, Murton is not included on this projection.

Projecting these 15 slots was easy--it's the potential arbitration cases that can get tricky.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

In addition to the 15 players mentioned in the tables above, plus Matt Murton (who would be the victim of a numbers game if the status quo is kept), the Rockies have 10 potential salary arbitration cases on their hands with players that have between three and six years of ML service time (Tracy Ringolsby lists them here). Calculating potential salaries for these players is quite tricky. As I noted when I wrote about ML service time, the average salary raise in 2009 was 172% when multi-year deals for arbitration-eligible players (like Ryan Howard's 3 year, $54 million deal) are included.

The Rockies in 2008 gave raises of over 300% to Clint Barmes and Jorge De La Rosa plus hefty salary increases to Taylor Buchholz, Huston Street, Garrett Atkins, and Jason Grilli--raises which increased payroll by $7,649,000 over the six players' 2008 salaries. This year, the Rockies' situation will be much more expensive, with several of their arb-eligible players performing at a high level in 2009.

When projecting arbitration raises for the Rockies I did so based on some past history--giving higher % raises to players with a lower starting salary and to those who had performed in a starting role.

Here's which I came up with, provided the Rockies tendered a 2010 contract offer to each of their arbitration eligibles:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Garrett Atkins	5.072	$5,640,000	-20%
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0%
Matt Belisle	4.02	$1,200,000	50%
Randy Flores	5.061	$900,000	50%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90%

Total		$32,077,560	134%

This chart tells us that based on career performance and function (weighted more heavily toward 2009), the Rockies will pay these 10 players over $32 million--about $13.7 million more than they were paid in 2009. This chart is even assuming that Garrett Atkins will be tendered and will accept a minimum 80% of his previous year's salary (unlikely). Even with Atkins, the projected average arbitration salary increases is only 134%, well below 2009's MLB average of 172%--meaning that my estimated raises, shocking in their size as they may seem, may even be on the low side.

Estimated Rockies 2010 ODP

This calculation represents the status quo, if the Rockies neither re-sign any of their free agents nor get rid of any players under team control and remain dormant in free agency. The resulting roster would have 24 players on it with Buchholz starting the year on the DL (therefore another player's salary would need to be added in) and would be paid:

Multi-Year Contracts: $48,058,000

Pre-Arbitration Contracts: $3,324,840

Arbitration Contracts: $32,077,560

Total ODP: $83,460,400

In other words, the Rockies' ODP will need to grow by $8,259,400, or 10.98%, in order to maintain the status quo (a cost certainty price floor, if you will).

What This All Means

It's pretty obvious to me that the status quo won't happen, as Atkins will likely be non-tendered and one of the outfielders (Hawpe, Spilborghs, or Murton) will be shopped around and dealt. What the above calculation shows, however, is that the Rockies will have very little payroll flexibility to add pieces for 2010--especially if the Rockies need to replace Atkins and grab another bullpen piece.

The most pressing issue given this limitation is the $5.4 million team option on set-up man Rafael Betancourt--in my opinion the team simply can't afford to pay it, unless they are planning on moving Hawpe and his $7.5 million contract. Also, the Rockies have a few free agents they'd like to re-sign, including Joe Beimel (who will probably cost around $2 million), Jason Giambi ($1.5 million), and Torrealba (at most $2 million). Again, Colorado would need to move Hawpe to make this possible.

Remember though that if the Rockies do move Hawpe, they'll receive trade assets in return--and especially if those players are major leaguers they must also be well-compensated.

If I Were In Charge...

Given the financial limitations facing the Rockies and in light of the fact that they were very successful in 2009, a fine line must be walked between cost consciousness and competitiveness. Because the Rockies can not add very many, if any, significant pieces given their current projected payroll, they need to make a few moves. Here's what I would do this offseason to shape the 2010 Rockies:

1. Non-Tender Garrett Atkins. For the love of God, please--Atkins doubles as expensive and bad.

2. Pick only one or two out-going free agents to re-sign. There isn't any room for more than that. The Rockies' top priority should be getting back Betancourt or Beimel if they can get them back for a reasonable price (in this case, under $2.5 million). Relief pitching is too fungible and the market too inefficient to pay relievers big bucks. Likely this person will be Beimel. If the Rockies can get Torrealba back for about $1.5-2 million, they should do it--but they should let him walk if he wants much more than that. An alternative to Torrealba would be to keep Giambi around if he could be had for $1.5 million to come off the bench. I would keep one or the other (or neither), there isn't money for both.

Torrealba would replace Phillips on the roster or Giambi would replace the recently outrighted Omar Quintanilla.

3. Look hard for a taker for Brad Hawpe. In order for the Rockies to shore up their rotation and find a suitable sub for Atkins, they will need to move someone from their glut of outfielders to maintain payroll flexibility. Hawpe may very well be the Rockies' best hitting outfielder and an excellent leader in the clubhouse, but his horrific defense, much higher salary, and All-Star status make Hawpe an ideal trade piece--a player that has much more marginal value to prospective trading partners than he does to his own team. Even after his cold second half, Hawpe does have value around the league (especially as a DH), enough to garner the package I've outlined below.

A possible trade package for Hawpe would be a young back-end rotation starter and either a corner infield reserve or a B prospect or two. The Rockies need starting pitching depth for the simple reason that they were fortunate with pitcher health last year (basically the same five starters all year)--something that will likely not continue next year. They do have a bevy of good pitching prospects, but they will be relying on Francis or Morales to nail down the fifth slot in the rotation, so some insurance is probably needed. If the Rockies can get a major league-ready arm plus a prospect for Hawpe they should pull the trigger.

If no such trade package were to surface, either Spilborghs or Murton would need to be moved--and my decision would be Spilborghs due to the fact that he's older, will command a higher salary, and has Scott Boras as an agent.

4. Gauge the market for Manuel Corpas. If someone will offer value, I'd move him. But value in this situation would be relatively high--I'd hate to sell low on Corpas.

5. Bring in the usual suspects on minor league deals as pitching depth. There are plenty of guys that fit this mold (Fogg, Herges, Rincon, etc.). This is cheap depth to be used in case of dire emergencies only.

The resulting ODP from these moves (assuming Hawpe is moved) would be about $76.7 million, a slight payroll increase from 2009.

Rockies Add Four Players to the Roster for Stretch Run

Jabberwocky — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 00:20:24 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Chacin is back for the stretch run.

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As Inside the Rockies' Steve Foster reports, the Colorado Rockies have called up four players from AAA Colorado Springs, whose season ended after their playoff aspirations were dashed yesterday.

Receiving the call to the Rockies are two pitchers (Jhoulys Chacin and Matt Belisle) and two hitters (Matt Murton and Mike McCoy). All of the players except for McCoy have played for the Rockies this season.

To make room for Belisle and McCoy (Murton and Chacin were already on the 40 man roster), the Rockies designated Adam Eaton for assignment and placed Chris Nelson on the 60 day DL.

These moves provide much needed depth for the stretch run to the Rockies, who have suffered a recent rash of injuries to key players.

Speaking of that, here's an injury update by the AP on Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Stewart.

Purple Row interviews Marc Gustafson, Part 1

RockiesMagicNumber — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 12:26:40 -0000

Marc Gustafson, Director of Player Development for the Colorado Rockies, has taken some time to sit and chat with Purple Row.

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A NOTE FROM RUSS: Finally, RMN and I can reveal our little secret that we've mentioned over the last month. The Rockies granted access to their organization for Purple Row. This story began back in February when RockiesMagicNumber first attempted to ask for an interview with someone in the organization. He was politely told "no," but it wasn't a "never." So, the two of us decided to let things settle for several months. A few weeks ago I encouraged RMN to make contact with the organization again. Last time, we just shot from the hip and didn't really plan on what to say. This time was different, and I offered RMN some talking points on why Purple Row should be able to break down that barrier and talk with someone inside the organization. And here we are: RMN was granted an interview with Marc Gustafson, the Rockies' Director of Player Development who was on a road trip to watch the Tri-City Dust Devils. This interview took place on Wednesday.

Join RMN and Marc Gustafson for the first of at least three parts after the jump.

RMN: For the sake of everyone reading on Purple Row, as the Director of Player Development, what is your job; can you give us a bit of a rundown?

Marc Gustafson: Well, I'm in a position where I oversee the Player Development department, which includes our coordinators, our staff on the field, trainers, but the main part of my job is to make sure everyone is on the same page with our philosophies, and that starts at the top with Dan [O'Dowd] and Bill Geivett and with the ownership group, and we carry that process down, that same common theme to all of our affiliates and all of our people involved in our Player Development system.

RMN: Building on that, do you think you could summarize the organizational philosophy? Everyone in Denver remembers when Dan O'Dowd took over, we went on a 5-year plan, building from within and cycling players in and out to fill holes. Can you speak to how that has changed, or how that continues today?

Marc Gustafson: I would say it's a long-term plan that focuses primarily on scouting and player development, which also includes a component in Latin American operations. We're all on the same page; we're committed to our players in the minor league system. We're going to do everything we can to give the players in the system a chance to reach the major league level, and once they get there, we hope they have a chance to solidify and stabilize their career a little bit with the Rockies. The primary goal is to develop the players within the system.

RMN: When it comes to filling holes that aren't met immediately by the farm, because obviously the timing isn't perfect, are you directly involved with Free Agency?

Marc Gustafson: Yeah, absolutely. We have the 6-year Free Agent process, we have the Rule 5 draft, we have trades that we analyze, we're really looking in all areas. You have to, because as you just mentioned, you're not going to be able to get everybody up every year. There's going to be waves that come through the system that get there, and you may not have a player ready, and you'll have to go out and look at certain areas to fill in the gaps a little bit. We really try and get the right person; obviously good players are the primary concern, but good teammates are a very high standard for us, the players we take a close look at.

RMN: We hear a lot about that from the local media, how the clubhouse is an important part of the organization. Between the offseason and this midseason, it's been exciting to see a lot of deadline deals done. Regrettably, the Rockies have typically been sellers at this point in the season. Who would you say has been the best acquisition we've made in terms of trades or Free Agents for the '09 season?

Marc Gustafson: Well, I'd have to go back to the Jason Marquis deal this offseason. Bringing in a guy like Marquis to plug into the rotation, well, he's an All-Star, that speaks for itself what he's been able to accomplish to solidify that rotation. That would be first and foremost. Then you'd have to go down and look at a few guys, just off the top of my head, some free agents we acquired: Joel Peralta was pretty good for awhile there for us; Juan Rincon has been pretty good in the bullpen. There've been some players of late that you're probably talking about in Jason Giambi and Jose Contreras are the most recent deals we've made. You know, it's always tough to give up your own players, but as you just mentioned, it's a good position to be in, because you're in a pennant race, and you have to do everything you can to keep things going in the right direction.

RMN: Absolutely. There's about a 50-50 split [on Purple Row] when the trade was announced, how Brandon Hynick was so close to reaching the majors and then we move him for Contreras. I was personally a proponent of the deal, but that's neither here nor there. Now, in the case of Hynick, are you the person who has to make that call, or does the AAA manager handle that?

Marc Gustafson: I called Brandon personally when the trade happened. Prior to that, there's a lot of folks involved: our pro scouting department's involved, our coordinators are involved, our AAA staff is involved...We're not just doing a deal to do a deal, we try to really compare notes and figure out long-term efforts, is this the thing to do? You know, it's always a tough phone call to make, whether it be Connor Graham, who we sent to Cleveland for Rafael Betancourt, you know, because these are our guys, they've grown up with us, and you hate to lose them, but at the same time, Betancourt has been tremendous for us so far, and we hope the same situation will happen with the Brandon Hynick trade, with Contreras.

RMN: Just to reassure you, from the people who really do follow the team and the system, we hate to give our own players up, too, just because even though they've never touched the majors, we form attachments to them, and we're really looking forward to seeing them, but at the same time, we like to win as well.

Marc Gustafson: Yeah, absolutely. So you kind of get the feel of what I'm talking about, in terms of, you know, you hate to lose your guys, but it's the betterment of the organization, and that's what we're here for, that's our job.

RMN: Along those lines, during the offseason we moved Corey Wimberly for Matt Murton. He came up and was productive during his short stint up with the Rockies, and he's been mashing for AAA. Can you speak to the organization's plans for Matt Murton?

Marc Gustafson: Well, he came in and did a great job starting Day 1 in Spring Training. He's a grinder, he's a professional, he gives a professional At-Bat each and every time at the plate. He's done a fantastic job for us in Colorado Springs. He and Matt Miller have been the glue to the middle of that lineup in Colorado Springs, and they're in a playoff hunt right now. You know, the guy plays the game the right way. As I mentioned, he's a pro, he's a good teammate, he does a lot of good things at the plate, and to be quite honest with you, he's a pretty good defender in the outfield. So we're in a situation right now where we're going to finish off the year in AAA, and hopefully get into the playoffs, and we'll see what happens when their season is over, and if Jim Tracy and the staff feel like they need another bat off the bench, in terms of a Right Handed Bat, most definitely Matt Murton and Matt Miller would be of consideration.

RMN: Speaking of AAA, one of my favorite players to follow has been the SS Mike McCoy. I know he's more of a veteran journeyman, as it seems, but is there going to be a Major League look at him at any point?

Marc Gustafson: Yeah, definitely. We've been very proud of what McCoy has been able to, what he brings to the table, his athleticism, he's a sparkplug anywhere in the lineup, because he gives you a good AB, he's going to get on base, and he can play SS, he can play 2B, he can play CF, he's really what you're looking for. Going back a couple steps, you asked me about the Free Agent process; Mike McCoy was in there very high on our list, and we were able to bring him back...him and Danny Ortmeier...those are the guys you're looking for, you know, the guys who play every day, and give you a quality effort day in and day out. To answer your question specifically, I think most definitely we've considered McCoy in terms of a big league option, if that point in time comes.

RMN: Awesome. I personally would love to see him up, but we've got to do what we've got to do right now, and if he's helping the Sky Sox do some big things right now, it's understandable, we have a lot of depth right now.

Marc Gustafson: And to be quite honest with you, getting regular ABs with the AAA club and playing every day is probably the better option right now, because if they're at the big league level, well, we're playing well, and everybody on the field is playing well, so it'd be tough for Jim Tracy to find ABs for those guys.

RMN: Yeah, we've seen that situation with Omar Quintanilla. We kind of look at him like they did Seth Smith in '07, kind of the good luck charm, good clubhouse guy.

RMN: Now, if I could move away from the Major League club - well, at least the players - in terms of the organization, where do the Rockies fall in with Sabrmetrics and defensive metrics and the advanced numbers and evaluation thereof?

Marc Gustafson: Well, we have guys in the office; they do a hell of a job in terms of getting the information that we need. We don't overdo any specific area; we try to look at all areas. We try to be really good in a lot of different areas. Our scouts out there are doing their thing, the guys in the office and the statistics and the analysis they do, they do a fantastic job. We've got player development people who have a heck of a good idea on how to teach guys to play the game. So for me, and for the organization, it's a balanced approach. We have to stay in tune with everything going on, but we have to evaluate and we have to teach. That would be the best answer I can give you on that question.

RMN: I happen to be a statistics guy on Purple Row, so this is my area of interest, but I won't harp too much on numbers. Do you use it much in the minor league development system, saying, "oh this guy has an OPS of .900, he might be ready" or is it more of an eyeball test and seeing how well he's adapting to competition?

Marc Gustafson: It's definitely used in the minor league system, without a doubt. We take a very close look at everybody and see how they're doing. We really have to stay focused on the player himself, and what he can do to contribute to the major league level. We have to separate that - that's an office thing. We don't get our player development instructors involved in that stuff, that's a front office tool that we utilize, and we definitely take a close look at it at the minor league level as well.

RMN: That's one of the things we try to stress on Purple Row, to have posters who have an old school mentality and try and balance it with a new school/numbers mentality, so we can have a balanced approach, in the form of "Well, this guy has good numbers, but he's not fast" or whatever. The balance is the smartest thing.

Marc Gustafson: It really is. You need to have that balance. We don't shy away from any idea that's brought to the table. Dan is wonderful at that, Dan is really focused on...any information that can give us an edge, we're going to look into it, without a doubt.

RMN: That's wonderful to hear. Now, if I can move into the farm system and the scouting a bit more here... how much do you scout the other teams' farm systems - is it only when it's an upcoming series? And how far in advance do your advanced scouts work on teams?

Marc Gustafson: Are you talking at the minor league level or the major league level?

RMN: The minor league level.

Marc Gustafson: At the minor league level, a couple of different ways. Our amateur scouts and our pro scouts work together. Obviously the amateur scouts have their duties that they take care of leading up to the draft. Once the draft is complete, then they'll go out and each scout will have coverage with a specific organization. The pro scouts are out covering the big league clubs as well as minor league clubs, so a lot of reports are coming in every day - reports from other clubs' players...we take a look in Mexico, we take a look in Independent leagues, we try to keep our eye on what's going on in the Pacific Rim. Those guys do a hell of a job keeping all the information coming to the office. In terms of our player development staff members, meaning managers, coaches, pitching coaches, those guys will definitely report on what they would call a prospect. They would give a report into the office if they were, say, matching up against... like, right now I'm in Tri-Cities and we're playing the Yakima club. If they see a player that in their eyes is a prospect then they're going to go ahead and compile a report and send it into the office.