SB Nation - Carlos Zambrano

MLB Trade Rumors: On the Beat with John Perrotto Version

raygu — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:00:37 -0000

by Eric Risberg - AP

about 1 month ago: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Chad Billingsley takes a break on the mound after the San Francisco Giants scored their third run in the fourth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009. San Francisco won the game 7-2; Billingsley was the losing pitcher. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

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Every Sunday, John Perrotto from Baseball Prospectus puts out an article talking about possible trade rumors and signings, along with analysis of the goings on around baseball. Yesterday's article was chock full of names who could be available in trade talks this offseason, with some suprise names.

Let's take a look after the jump:

Here is a list of names who could be available in trade talks per Perrotto:

Chad Billingsley Kerry Wood

Dave Bush Bobby Jenks

Jeremy Guthrie Pat Burrell

Adrian Gonzalez Nelson Cruz

Heath Bell Ryan Ludwick

Glen Perkins Dan Uggla

Kenshin Kawakami Juan Pierre

Derek Lowe Ryan Doumit

Javier Vazquez Dioner Navarro

Carlos Zambrano Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Matt Capps Geovany Soto

Christian Guzman Elijah Dukes

Corey Hart David Dejesus

Poll

What name on the Perrotto list is most surprising?

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

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Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

Cubs' Ted Lilly undergoes shoulder surgery

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 02:19:46 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

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Bad News Cubs.

Bruce Miles of the Arlington Heights Daily Herald is reporting that Cubs pitcher Ted Lilly underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery yesterday and could miss the start of the regular season. Lilly, who has been the Cubs' most reliable starter in recent years, says he hopes to start throwing in four months.

"The idea is maybe to start throwing in four months or so," he said. "A lot of that is going to be dictated on just how the rehab goes. That can change one way or another. My intention is to get back as soon as I can without setting myself back."

Since signing with the Cubs, Lilly has gone 44-26 with a 3.67 ERA. Entering a contract year in 2010, you can bet that Lilly wants to get back to the mound as soon as possible.

How will this impact the Cubs' moves this offseason?

The Cubs are not expected to bring back Rich Harden, meaning a spot will open up in the rotation. Currently, the rotation will look something like this: Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, and either Tom Gorzelanny or Jeff Samardzija.

With Lilly out, it seems even more imperative that the Cubs bring in a veteran arm to give the Cubs some stability at the back-end of their rotation. Free agent pitcher Randy Wolf could be an option for that role.

Other options include Javier Vazquez of the Braves through a trade, or free agents Justin Duchscherer, Brett Myers, or Joel Piniero.

Fantasy Baseball: Looking at K/9 and GB%

raygu — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 14:35:11 -0000

Coming into my 2009 drafts, I found a very interesting article over at www.thebaseballanalysts.com which categorized pitchers by their K/9 and GB ratios. The importance of this for roto/fantasy owners is knowing how your pitchers get guys out. Pitchers with high K/9 and high GB ratios usually provide owners with very good win, ERA and WHIP stats, and they are the ones to target come draft day. The reason is they are getting guys out via the strikeout and inducing a high percentage of ground balls which more often than not results in an out. And ground balls don't leave the ballpark.

With that said, I provide you with the top 25 K/9 pitchers in 2009 with their corresponding GB ratios, along with some other advanced pitching stats, courtesy of www.fangraphs.com, after the jump:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	GB%	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	47.50%	0.4	0.209	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	36.00%	0.75	0.244	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	47.70%	0.89	0.245	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41
Yovani Gallardo	9.89	4.56	2.17	45.00%	1.02	0.223	1.31	0.288	77.90%	3.73
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	41.70%	0.82	0.226	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87
Jonathan Sanchez	9.75	4.85	2.01	40.70%	1.05	0.227	1.37	0.29	72.60%	4.24
Clayton Kershaw	9.74	4.79	2.03	39.40%	0.37	0.198	1.23	0.274	77.50%	2.79
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	40.00%	0.43	0.232	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	38.30%	1.12	0.265	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06
Jorge de la Rosa	9.39	4.04	2.33	44.70%	0.97	0.248	1.38	0.316	71.60%	4.38
Max Scherzer	9.19	3.33	2.76	41.80%	1.06	0.257	1.34	0.323	68.70%	4.12
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	42.90%	1.06	0.229	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14
A.J. Burnett	8.48	4.22	2.01	42.80%	1.09	0.248	1.4	0.302	75.90%	4.04
Wandy Rodriguez	8.45	2.76	3.06	44.90%	0.92	0.249	1.24	0.306	79.40%	3.02
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	47.20%	1.06	0.249	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86
Matt Garza	8.38	3.5	2.39	39.70%	1.11	0.236	1.26	0.284	75.00%	3.95
Josh Johnson	8.22	2.5	3.29	50.30%	0.6	0.238	1.16	0.299	74.90%	3.23
Chad Billingsley	8.21	3.94	2.08	45.30%	0.78	0.238	1.32	0.294	71.00%	4.03
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	50.70%	0.66	0.247	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63
Felix Hernandez	8.18	2.68	3.06	53.40%	0.57	0.229	1.14	0.289	76.70%	2.49
Ubaldo Jimenez	8.17	3.51	2.33	52.50%	0.54	0.229	1.23	0.29	73.50%	3.47
Carlos Zambrano	8.08	4.15	1.95	44.70%	0.53	0.245	1.38	0.308	71.90%	3.77
Johan Santana	7.88	2.48	3.17	35.70%	1.08	0.249	1.21	0.296	78.00%	3.13
Aaron Harang	7.87	2.38	3.3	34.90%	1.33	0.289	1.41	0.339	75.70%	4.21
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	50.20%	0.83	0.258	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79

A couple takeaways from this analysis for me is that Jonathan Sanchez may be due for a breakout year in 2010 if he can continue pitching like he did in the seond half of 2009.

Another takeaway is I would be very afraid of drafting Johan_Santana in 2010 because you will have to spend a high draft pick or $25+ in roto leagues for a guy whose peripheral stats are taking a turn for the worse. His K/9 have decreased in each of the last 2 years, and his BB/9 and HR/9 have increased in the last 2 years.

A couple of Colorado Rockie pitchers broke out in 2009, and I am not sure we have seen the best of Ubaldo_Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa yet. Both strikeout more than 8 batters per 9 innings, and induce ground balls at a pretty high rate in the case for Jiminez, and JDLR's GB ratio isn't that bad either. If they can increase their LOB% in 2010, they will make fantasy owners real happy.

Finally, I have already wrote about Ricky Nolasco, so I will move onto another pitcher whose peripherals scream that he could come cheap in 2010 drafts. That name is Max Scherzer, and he is an intriguing name, as he struck out more than 9 batters per 9 innings, and induced ground balls at a 42% clip in 2009. His LOB% was pretty low in 2009, so I expect a very solid season from Scherzer in 2010.

Poll

Who will get drafted first in 2010: Jonathan Sanchez or Max Scherzer?

Scherzer

57 votes

Sanchez

12 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

Bill James Handbook 2010 Projections

Al — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:11:01 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Will Magglio Ordonez be a Cub in 2010?

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With a day off before game six of the ALCS -- and this series has the chance to go down in history as one of the better league championship series, having already produced at least three "instant classics", let's spend today looking toward next year.

As most of you probably already know, ACTA Sports publishes, each year, the Bill James Handbook, which in addition to having complete stats for all players active in 2009, publishes projections for the following season based on a projection system that they are continually tweaking to attempt to make it as accurate as possible.

The good folks at ACTA sent me an advance copy of the projection pages from the handbook, in which Bill James first runs down the projections they did for 2009; some of them were missed badly (mostly due to injury -- Eric Chavez and Troy Glaus, for example), others (Mark Teixeira, Orlando Hudson and Evan Longoria are the examples they give) were pretty darn close. They projected Mike Fontenot to have 9 HR and 43 RBI -- exactly what he did have, except they thought he'd hit .288, instead of the .236 he actually hit. For Geovany Soto, they missed badly -- the James system had him at .289, with a .499 SLG, 35 doubles, 23 HR and 89 RBI. I think you can imagine how much better the Cubs' season would have been if they had been right about Geo.

Continue after the jump to find some of their projections for 2010. I'm not only going to post a few of the projections for Cubs players that they sent me, but also some projections for some of the possible acquisitions we have discussed here at BCB, mainly some of the hitters that have been talked about in potential Milton Bradley deals. (Note: doing this doesn't mean I'm endorsing any particular acquisition, simply posting some numbers for players we've speculated about.)

Let's start with a few players we know are going to be Cubs in 2010:

Derrek Lee: .291/.378/.516, 40 doubles, 30 HR, 98 RBI, 94 runs
Aramis Ramirez: .292/.364/.514, 32 doubles, 26 HR, 97 RBI, 76 runs
Alfonso Soriano: .263/.320/.487, 35 doubles, 30 HR, 77 RBI, 85 runs
Kosuke Fukudome: .265/.365/.427, 39 doubles, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 76 runs
Geovany Soto: .273/.361/.469, 31 doubles, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 58 runs

Well. If those come true, the Cubs will score a ton of runs in 2010; that's 389 runs from just five players. Now, some of the starting rotation -- acknowledging, as James points out, that pitcher projections are done very differently than hitter projections due to the nature of pitching statistics:

Carlos Zambrano: 29 starts, 180 IP, 80 BB, 151 K, 12-8, 3.60
Ryan Dempster: 30 starts, 195 IP, 81 BB, 167 K, 12-10, 3.83
Ted Lilly: 25 starts, 170 IP, 56 BB, 144 K, 11-8, 3.76
Randy Wells: 30 starts, 188 IP, 60 BB, 147 K, 10-10, 4.16 
Carlos Marmol: 74 games, 73 IP, 45 BB, 84 K, 5-3, 3.45, 34 saves

And, apparently, give up a ton of runs and finish barely over .500. For some reason, they also project Wells to have 14 HBP and 19 other major league pitchers to have 15 or more -- that seems way off, considering that only one pitcher (Dave Bush) had 15 in 2009 and that Wells himself had only 6 HBP in the season just ended.

Now, here are some projections for some -- not all -- of the players we have discussed here as possible 2010 new Cubs, enough to get some discussion going:

Magglio Ordonez: .311/.376/.476, 32 doubles, 17 HR, 84 RBI, 70 runs
Curtis Granderson: .275/.353/.491, 30 doubles, 11 triples, 27 HR, 76 RBI, 106 runs, 17 SB
Michael Young: .299/.352/.443, 37 doubles, 16 HR, 80 RBI, 88 runs
Vernon Wells: .271/.327/.443, 33 doubles, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 77 runs
Aaron Rowand: .267/.327/.423, 37 doubles, 17 HR, 72 RBI, 74 runs
Carlos Beltran: .282/.375/.490, 33 doubles, 24 HR, 91 RBI, 92 runs
Mark DeRosa: .260/.335/.418, 27 doubles, 17 HR, 71 RBI, 76 runs

And, because you'll ask:

Milton Bradley: .276/.384/.450, 25 doubles, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 74 runs

James' system projects Bradley to play 133 games and have 467 AB; both of those would be the second-highest totals of his career. Note also that (presumably) the projections for players who the Cubs might acquire are based on their current home parks; playing with Wrigley Field as their home park would likely result in different projections.

There are complete projections in the book, which is available November 1 and which you can pre-order at the link at the top of this post -- we can discuss whatever players you want in this post, but I'm not going to spend a lot of time typing out projections for others, so don't ask. Full disclosure: ACTA Sports is sending me a copy of the book.

Fantasy Baseball: 2009 FIP Leaders

raygu — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:00:23 -0000

by Gregory Smith - AP

Will Ricky Nolasco be undervalued in 2010?

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I know what you are asking-what the heck is FIP? According to The Hardball Times site, FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.

With that explained, I give you the 2009 FIP leaders among starting pitchers courtesy of www.fangraphs.com:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	0.43	0.232	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16	2.33
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	0.4	0.209	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48	2.34
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	0.82	0.226	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87	2.77
Chris Carpenter	6.73	1.78	3.79	0.33	0.223	1.01	0.272	79.50%	2.24	2.78
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	0.75	0.244	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45	2.8
Josh Johnson	8.22	2.5	3.29	0.6	0.238	1.16	0.299	74.90%	3.23	3.06
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	0.83	0.258	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79	3.06
Clayton Kershaw	9.74	4.79	2.03	0.37	0.198	1.23	0.274	77.50%	2.79	3.08
Felix Hernandez	8.18	2.68	3.06	0.57	0.229	1.14	0.289	76.70%	2.49	3.09
Cliff Lee	7.03	1.67	4.21	0.66	0.273	1.24	0.326	76.20%	3.22	3.11
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	0.66	0.247	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63	3.11
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	0.89	0.245	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41	3.15
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	1.06	0.229	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14	3.23
Joel Pineiro	4.42	1.14	3.89	0.46	0.265	1.14	0.293	66.90%	3.49	3.27
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	0.265	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35
Ubaldo Jimenez	8.17	3.51	2.33	0.54	0.229	1.23	0.29	73.50%	3.47	3.36
CC Sabathia	7.71	2.62	2.94	0.7	0.233	1.15	0.284	71.40%	3.37	3.39
Wandy Rodriguez	8.45	2.76	3.06	0.92	0.249	1.24	0.306	79.40%	3.02	3.54
Carlos Zambrano	8.08	4.15	1.95	0.53	0.245	1.38	0.308	71.90%	3.77	3.61

One guy that stands out for me is Ricky Nolasco and his 5.06 ERA. Based on his outstanding peripherals, his FIP-3.35 is almost 2 runs lower than his ERA of 5.06. He will be someone to target on the cheap in 2010. His LOB% of 61%, or runners stranded, is extremely low and should increase in 2010, which will lower his ERA.

Joel Pineiro is another guy that stands out only for his low LOB% of 66.9%. His FIP wasn't much lower than his ERA, so I have to explain that is due to how low WHIP of 1.14.

Poll

Will Ricky Nolasco be undervalued in 2010?

Yes, his FIP and peripherals are still solid.

45 votes

No, he gives up too many hits with RISP.

6 votes

51 votes | Poll has closed

2009-10 Do-It-Yourself Offseason Trade/Free Agent Post

Al — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 14:01:23 -0000

More photos » by Mark Avery - AP

Some guy named Brian Roberts. Ever heard of him? Me, either.

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This morning, wrote that the Cubs are interested in acquiring . Cubs GM Jim Hendry . Meanwhile, Hendry said that Milton Bradley would be traded to the . Hendry also said that Rich Harden , and that Carlos Zambrano . Former Cub Mark DeRosa while Bradley was offered to the . The Cubs tried to get the to take Aaron Miles' contract, but they refused because . In the upcoming Rule 5 draft, the Cubs are going to select . The Cubs' plans for Sam Fuld in 2010 include Brian Roberts was located and had this comment on his possible trade to the Cubs: Finally, manager Lou Piniella's comments about the rumors included:

All's Wells That Ends Wells: Cubs' Randy Wells Outstanding In Final 2009 Start

Al — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 20:53:53 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

Randy Wells finishes off an outstanding rookie season.

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Now here's something that can give us hope for 2010.

Randy Wells gave up a leadoff double to Stephen Drew and then shut the Diamondbacks down. He retired the next 14 in a row and allowed only two other hits, striking out ten, and the Cubs shut out the Diamondbacks 5-0. For the Cubs it was their eighth team shutout of the year (and third in their last eight games), and their first win over Arizona since April.

Wells set a season (and career) high with the 10 K's, and the seven innings pitched qualify him for the ERA leaders list -- at 3.05, he will rank 10th in the league (unless Josh Johnson of the Marlins, who will go in the season's final game tomorrow vs. the Phillies with a 3.08 ERA, passes him). He also walked only one this afternoon, completing 2009 with 46 walks in his 165.1 innings pitched -- that ranks 12th in the NL in fewest walks for anyone who has 162 or more innings this season. Randy also registered his 12th win of the season; in all of Cubs history only seven pitchers won more games in their rookie season. The 3.05 ERA also ranks sixth among all Cubs rookie pitchers who qualified for the league ERA title. (Note: Wells doesn't appear on those lists because before today's game he didn't have enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Now he does.)

Randy is never going to overpower anyone, although today he had the Diamondbacks flailing away at his pitches, which he mixed up well. In his 27 starts he went fewer than five innings only three times, and today was his ninth outing of seven innings or more. Earlier this year I compared him to former Cub righthander Kevin Tapani. He resembles Tapani in several ways -- stature, pitching motion, the age at which he first established himself in the major leagues. And Tapani was a good #3 or #4 starter for 13 years, and was a key contributor to three playoff teams.

If the Cubs get that out of Randy Wells before he leaves the game, we will all be very happy.

While Wells and Esmailin Caridad (a 1-2-3 eighth) and Carlos Marmol (a 1-2-3 ninth) were keeping the Diamondbacks off the bases, the Cubs were drawing walks and hitting the hapless Daniel Cabrera all over the yard. The biggest blows were a two-run triple from Reed Johnson -- this, a guy who suffered a serious foot injury two months ago -- and two hits and two RBI from Geovany Soto. With his two hits and two walks Geo got his OPS above .700 (to .710). It's a big dropoff from his .868 Rookie of the Year OPS from last year, but at least he appears to be improving in September after an awful August. Geo needs to dedicate himself to losing weight and getting in shape and reporting to Mesa in February ready to recover his production level of 2008.

I was glad that Lou gave Tyler Colvin a start in front of the home crowd; he had an RBI single, and while he's probably not in the mix for a job at Wrigley in 2010, he should be ready to produce in Triple-A next year and be ready to challenge for the major league roster in 2011.

It was also nice to see Marmol throw an efficient inning, looking like the Marmol of old, even though it wasn't a save situation. This should also give him good confidence going into next year. The three pitchers, throwing strikes (87 out of 130 total Cub pitches), allowed the game to end in two hours and eleven minutes. That was the fastest nine-inning game at Wrigley Field since Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster (then the closer) dispatched the Astros in 2:05 on June 11, 2007. Just in time, too -- about five minutes after the last out, a light rain began to fall.

Speaking of rain, here's a final word I heard today about Thursday's rainout and why MLB wanted so badly to have all games played this season. Up to Thursday, no MLB games had been cancelled this year and it seemed possible that every team would play the full 162 games. Instead, with the Cubs having one fewer game than everyone except the Pirates, it's possible that the Cubs could rank ahead of the Rays and/or Mariners, whose records as of today are similar to the Cubs. MLB simply wanted to avoid that "half-game scenario", but Thursday's weather prevented that. That's the reason they waited so long.

And tomorrow, we wrap things up on the Cubs for 2009, we hope, with a win to at least send us off with a good last memory.

Some Thoughts For 2010: Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Preview, Friday 10/2, 1:20 CT

Al — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:30:15 -0000

The bleachers during Thursday night's rain delay, about 9:15 pm. (BCB photo by David Sameshima)

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We have, at times this season, debated whether the Cubs should have traded Mark DeRosa and whether he would have helped the club through its various injuries and lack of production. I don't want to rekindle anything... oh, what the heck. Yes, I do.

During last night's rain delay, the Tribune's Paul Sullivan asked various Cubs, including Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly, what their wish lists are for 2010. Though all of them made good points -- and I think Dempster's wish of upgrading the facilities will come true, though maybe not for another year -- Lilly's were telling:

Lilly's wish is for the Cubs to re-sign Reed Johnson, who becomes a free agent in November. But he also said it would be prudent to consider bringing back Mark DeRosa, who left a void in the clubhouse when he was traded to the Indians last winter.

"I love Mark as a player, a person, a clubhouse guy," Lilly said. "I could say he's probably the best teammate I've ever had. All around, he really cares a great deal about everybody, and that's the kind of person he is. I think he also leads by example -- the way he plays. He's a special individual."

"The best teammate I've ever had". This, from someone who played more than two years for the Yankees when they were playing in World Series every year and had guys like Paul O'Neill and Scott Brosius, reputed to be great team leaders, not to mention Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera, all class acts and fine players. Ted says DeRo was "the best teammate I've ever had".

Now. Mark DeRosa is going to be 35 years old in February and hasn't produced this year as he did in his two Cub seasons -- although, that is partly due to a wrist injury he suffered in his first week with the Cardinals, plus his career numbers at Busch Stadium (.182/.251/.315 in 200 career AB) are pretty bad; compare that to the .305/.394/.464 he posted in 528 lifetime AB at Wrigley Field, neither of which can be dismissed as "small sample size". The Cubs could do worse than signing DeRosa to play right field or second base or a combination thereof, even if they have to have him share time with other players. For the right price -- I would NOT overpay -- I would be delighted to have Mark DeRosa back in Cubs uniform #7 in 2010.

Let the flaming -- or cheerleading -- begin.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Tom Gorzelanny Cubs	vs.	Billy Buckner Diamondbacks

7-2	W-L	3-6
4.70	ERA	6.59
44	SO	59
16	BB	25
5	HR	12
vs. Ari	--	vs. Cubs

NOTE: Tom Gorzelanny's stats below are with the Cubs only. See the pitcher box above for his full-season stats.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Tom Gorzelanny	4-1	12	6	0	0	0	0	35.1	32	18	18	5	12	37	4.58	1.25

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Billy Buckner	3-6	15	12	0	0	0	0	71.0	88	54	52	12	25	59	6.59	1.59

The last time a player named Bill Buckner appeared at Wrigley Field was May 24, 1984, when the former Cubs first baseman pinch-hit (and popped out) in the first game of a doubleheader against the Braves, just before he was traded to the Red Sox. This Billy Buckner, no relation, has never started against the Cubs (he made one relief appearance against them on July 23, 2008 in Phoenix). He has actually been fairly decent since he returned to the Arizona rotation in September (3.86 ERA in five starts, although he has also posted a 1.35 WHIP).

Tom Gorzelanny is slowly putting together a good record that he can bring to next spring training with a real chance to make the 2010 rotation. He has made six starts for the Cubs, going at least five innings in five of them (and getting pounded by the Rockies in the other one). His combined numbers as a starter: 28.2 IP, 28 H, 13 ER, 9 BB, 33 K, 4 HR, 4.13 ERA, 1.31 WHIP. Not bad, and if you throw out the one horrendous start, the other five are decent-to-outstanding. He has made three career starts vs. Arizona (1-0, 3.15). Stephen Drew (3-for-10) and Justin Upton (3-for-6, a HR) have hit him well in small sample sizes.

Today's game is on WGN and FSN Arizona. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Diamondbacks site AZ Snakepit. Jim, the proprietor, is a good guy and runs a well-done site. And he's originally from England.

Overflow comment threads will post again today at 2:15 and 3:15 pm CDT, although last night's had a combined five comments.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Pirates Sweep Split-Squad Games From Cubs, 4-0 And 8-2

Al — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 13:00:56 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

When Micah Hoffpauir and Sam Fuld couldn't come up with this fly ball, we should have known Game 2 wasn't going to turn out well.

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The lineup for game one yesterday read like the list of players the Cubs send to Tucson every spring to play the Rockies. You know, because the regulars don't want to ride the bus for two hours.

They played like they had ridden that bus, too, getting shut out 4-0 by the Pirates and Charlie Morton, a guy they had scored ten runs off of on August 14 before he could even register more than three outs. On a sunny but chilly afternoon when the announced attendance was 34,362, no more than about 13,000 entered Wrigley Field. For the first time that any of us could remember, the Cubs actually closed off the center-field bleachers with yellow caution tape, reminiscent of the days in the 1960's and 1970's when the Cubs wouldn't open the upper deck on weekdays when they expected small crowds. This practice ended after 1981 when the Cubs stopped selling general admission tickets in the main part of the ballpark. (See below the fold for a photo.) The announced attendance, based on the number of tickets sold, put Cubs attendance past 3 million (3,056,781 with four dates remaining) for the sixth straight year. The Cubs will need to put together a good offseason to do that again in 2010.

Ted Lilly didn't throw badly in the first game -- that is, after the first inning, when all four Pirates runs crossed the plate. Some questionable defense didn't help -- Bobby Scales, who again I remind Lou is not an outfielder, pulled up short on Lastings Milledge's looping line drive, allowing it to bounce in front of him. Then he nearly got Garrett Jones having taken too long a turn past second base; if this play had worked, Steve Pearce's ground ball on the next at-bat would have ended the inning with only one run scoring. Instead, Jason Jaramillo followed with a double to the LF corner, on which Jake Fox made a Jacque Jones-like throw to the infield, allowing Jaramillo to take third. Didn't really matter, as .225-hitting Brian Bixler drove him in.

And that was it -- the Triple-A lineup the Cubs sent up in game one managed only four singles, three walks and a hit batsman off Morton and got only three runners past first base; the last of those, Scales, took second on defensive indifference with two out in the ninth.

The weather for the night game (announced attendance 33,299; actual count in the park about 17,000) was colder than Tuesday night's and so were the Cubs' bats. The presence of Derrek Lee, who had two hits and a walk, made it a little less split-squaddy, but D-Lee appeared to still be bothered by his left foot, the one he fouled a ball off of on Tuesday night. It appeared that Lee's first-inning single might have gone far enough for him to reach second base, but he pulled up fairly slowly going into first, not wanting to risk any further injury on a chilly evening. We are told that Aramis Ramirez is going to play "sparingly" the rest of the year, which I'd read as "he won't play at all unless the weather warms up", which it probably won't. A-Ram gutted out half a season -- 80 games -- worth of very good performance considering the serious injury he suffered, and now he needs to rest up and be 100% for 2010. It appears he won't need surgery, which is good news.

Carlos Zambrano made it through six innings in his final 2009 start and didn't pitch too badly, but didn't have his best command. He walked four and two of them scored in a third inning where he couldn't manage to get that third out. One run had already scored when Z struck out Milledge, but Brandon Moss followed with a two-run single, and that, as the saying goes, was that. The Cubs managed their second and final run of the night in the bottom of that inning when Z smacked a double to deep center field, advanced on a groundout by Sam Fuld and scored on a nicely executed sacrifice by Ryan Theriot, perhaps the best thing the Cubs did all day. Z also hit another deep fly ball to CF in the fourth that was caught by Andrew McCutchen. No other Cub hit anything as well as Z did in his two at-bats.

Last night I met BCB reader katie casey and her husband and son -- nice to meet you; wish you (and the rest of us) had been able to see even one win yesterday. The Cubs now need to win all four remaining games on this final 2009 homestand to have a winning decade (this particular decade defined as "the ten years comprising 2000-2009"). That's a worthy goal, and also an 86-76 record would be one game better than Lou's first season as manager in 2007.

Weather permitting -- and this forecast doesn't look too encouraging -- the Cubs and Pirates will finish off their season series tonight. The Cubs clinched second place in the NL Central last night when the Brewers lost to the Rockies; that's nice, but not the goal we were all seeking this season.

The CF bleachers were closed for game 1 on Wednesday. BCB photo by David Sameshima (click on photo to open a larger version in a new browser window