SB Nation - Wade Miller

Zambrano Pitches In His Favorite Road HR Park: Cubs vs. Astros, Wednesday 6/10, 7:05 CT

Al — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 22:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

Z loves to bat, especially in Houston.

After Wrigley Field, where he's hit half (nine) of his 18 career homers, Minute Maid Park is Carlos Zambrano's favorite place to go deep. He's homered four times there in 12 career starts, including a two-run shot off his future teammate Wade Miller that tied this key game on July 25, 2003, a game the Cubs eventually won; and one on August 17, 2005, helping the Cubs to another win.

I'll settle for a well-pitched victory tonight, but you know Z will be aiming for the fences, too. He's got only five hits all told in 31 career AB in Houston -- four of them homers.

Speaking of which, here is tonight's lineup (via Twittermyer as always); in this lineup, Z should be hitting seventh:

Soriano, lf; Theriot, ss; Bradley, rf; Lee, 1b; Johnson, cf; Soto, c; Scales, 3b; Miles, 2b; Zambrano, p

Gordo also tweets that Fox will play every day -- somewhere -- at Iowa in order that he'll be ready to return to DH in the interleague games at AL parks beginning on June 23, and also, the Astros have switched starters for tomorrow's day game again. Instead of Mike Hampton, the Cubs will face Russ Ortiz.

Bruce Miles has some thoughts on Brett Jackson, the rest of the draft, and more on Jake Fox:

The Fox move makes sense for now. I speculated yesterday that the Cubs could do some roster shuffling in two weeks, when they play at Detroit and then come "home" to play the Sox at the Cell. At that point, they can, and probably should, bring Fox back and have him DH. The Cubs really didn’t miss Miles. Bobby Scales and Andres Blanco filled in capably, and that two-year deal the Cubs gave Miles after he was non-tendered by the Cardinals isn’t looking so hot.

A player sent down has to stay down for 10 days (barring injuries, which is what happened when Miles got hurt and Bobby Scales got a reprieve from an Iowa trip). The Cubs won't need a DH until June 23 at Detroit, so Fox could come back then.

And a-freakin-men on the Aaron Miles statement by Bruce Miles (no relation, right, Bruce?). That has to be one of the worst free agent signings -- ever.

I've posted a poll (which you can find either by clicking that link or on the right sidebar) where you can weigh in on the selection of Brett Jackson as the Cubs' #1 pick this year.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Carlos Zambrano Cubs	vs.	Wandy Rodriguez Astros

4-2	W-L	5-5
3.72	ERA	2.97
53	SO	69
26	BB	23
4	HR	5
vs. Hou	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Carlos Zambrano	4-2	14	9	0	0	0	0	55.2	52	25	23	4	26	53	3.72	1.40

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Wandy Rodriguez	5-5	12	12	0	0	0	0	72.2	72	31	24	5	23	69	2.97	1.31

Wandy Rodriguez is 4-4, 4.39 in 11 career starts vs. the Cubs, but he always seems to be the kind of guy who ties Cub hitters in knots. He got a no-decision on April 7 in a game the Cubs lost in extra innings. We all shake our heads at the demotion of Jake Fox, who might seem like the ideal guy to face the lefty Rodriguez -- but as a junkballer, he might tie Fox in knots. Jake will be back. In the meantime, Derrek Lee's the guy -- and he's hot right now -- who can pound Wandy; he's 12-for-24 (.500) lifetime against him with 3 doubles, 2 HR and 6 walks.

Z got the win on Opening Day in Houston this year, allowing only five hits in six innings on April 6. Apart from liking to hit in the Juice Box, he's 7-3, 3.42 lifetime there as a pitcher. He handles all the Astros pretty well except for Miguel Tejada (7-for-15, .467, a HR) and his lifelong nemesis, Carlos Lee (17-for-49, .347, 5 doubles, 4 HR). Stop those two, Z, and you'll win tonight.

National coverage tonight on WGN; other coverage via FSN Houston, EI and MLB.TV. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Overflow comment threads will post today at 8 pm, 9 pm and 9:45 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

I've Got Ways To Make You Come Back To Me: David Purcey in AAA and the Future of the Jays' Rotation

hugo — Wed, 20 May 2009 18:23:27 -0000

More photos » by NATHAN DENETTE - AP

David Purcey appears to have gotten back on track over his last two starts for AAA Las Vegas. Is a return to the majors in his near-term future?. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Nathan Denette)

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So, we know that Brian Tallet, Robert Ray, and Brett Cecil have done an outstanding job of filling in the rotation this season, and that Scott Richmond has similarly done an excellent job since breaking camp as the 5th starter. We've also talked a lot about Casey Janssen, who is lighting up the minors, and Ricky Romero, who is not, both of whom are waiting to get back into the majors, and Jesse Litsch, who is rehabbing his injury and should be ready to return in June sometime. And finally, we've talked about Fabio Castro and Brad Mills, both of whom are pitching extremely well in the minors right now.

But now we seem to have yet another wrinkle. David Purcey started the second game for the Jays this season and did a fine job, yielding 3 runs over 7 innings while striking out 5 and walking three. However, his subsequent 4 starts were not nearly as effective (the best of the bunch being a 5 1/3 innings, 6 K, 3 run effort) and Purcey was ultimately banished to the minors after a particularly poor start in which Purcey was both wild (55 of 93 pitches thrown for strikes, 3 walks over 5 innings) and way too hittable (3 HR and a triple and 8 hits in 5 innings), his ERA ballooning over 7. The message to the big lefty was clear - throw strikes or you have no place in the majors.

Purcey started AAA more or less like he left the Jays - he walked 8 batters (almost 1/inning) in his first two starts. However, his last two efforts have been a different story. On May 13, Purcey went 8 scoreless innings, striking out 7 and walking just 2, and yielded just three hits. In his most recent start, Purcey was similiarly successful, striking out 7 over 7 innings and giving up just 1 run, again walking just 2 batters. Just as significantly, Purcey threw 72 of his 110 pitches for strikes and got 10 groundouts to just 3 outs in the air. It's only two starts, but it appears as though Purcey may have recovered the improved control he demonstrated in the minor leagues last season, and in the majors after the all-star break when he became a permanent rotation member (his walk rate was under 3/9 IP once that happened, very good for someone with Purcey's K rate).

I'm not necessarily in any hurry to get Purcey back to the big leagues, but it is great to see him demonstrate improved control over his last two outings. Another good start and I would be comfortable calling him up if we needed to. The only problem is that he likely finds himself down on the depth chart now. So, I wanted to pose the following question, though certainly I hope that our current starting corps continues their excellent performance.

Out of Romero, Janssen, Purcey, Castro, Mills, Purcey, and why not, Wade Miller (no Burres, haha, I'm assuming he's last), what does your depth chart look like in terms of in what order would you call up these starters? Who would you be most comfortable, maybe even excited, about penciling into the rotation should a change need to be made?

Lastly , i do think we should acknowledge the work General Manager J.P. Ricciardi did in assembling this group of quality pitchers. They have come through the first round (Romero, Purcey, Cecil, McGowan) and subsequent rounds (Janssen, Mills, Ray, Litsch, Marcum) of the draft, through trades (Castro) and no-cost pickups (Tallet, Richmond), and they have done a fine job.

Today's post by Ottawa's own alt.country songstress Kathleen Edwards

I Came to Praise and Honor and Identify My Children: Minor League Update

hugo — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 14:35:19 -0000

Hi everyone. It's been a little while since our last minor league update, so I figured it was time for another one. With the Jays' players dropping like flies, it's good to know how the kids are doing. Today's post comes from a song off Common's Like Water for Chocolate record, one of my favourite hip-hop records.

Las Vegas

Wade Miller had a decent start for the 51s last night, although it was nothing special. Miller managed to get through 5 innings yielding just 2 runs on 4 hits, though he walked 3 and just struck out 1. Better than Burres? We may very well find out soon. After some rough times in the starting rotation, Dirk Hayhurst is back in the bullpen. In his first appearance out of the pen, he gave up a run, but he did strike out 2 and walk no one, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Dirk start to put up solid numbers out of the pen soon. Brad Mills and Brett Cecil are still struggling, although Mills had an ok start the last time out. Still, the pair have walked more than they have struck out, and that can't be blamed on the PCL, at least, not credibly. Personally, I don't think you get called up if you're pitching that way, so I don't mind them being passed over this time. Jonah Bayliss is doing a nice job out of the bullpen.

On the hitting side, Scott Campbell had been really struggling but has come on of late, hitting .400/.526/.467 over his last 5 games. He continues to struggle at third base, though, with an ugly 6 errors already. Catcher J.P. Arencibia doesn't have great numbers this season either, and has yet to hit a home run, but he's been swinging the bat better recently, with 5 doubles over the past week. In case you were wondering, he has drawn one walk this season, back in one of the first games ~~hasn't drawn a walk yet~~. He has a lot of work to do. Russ Adams continues to swing a hot bat, with a .324/.368/.618 line. He's probably a credible left-handed bench player on a major-league team, but there's no room for him on the Jays.

New Hampshire

On-base expert catching prospect Brian Jeroloman hasn't been walking much (just 5 this season) but he is hitting much better, .310/.365/.431 to be exact. Second baseman Brad Emaus has cooled off after his hot start and is now nursing an 0-13 streak, though his overall numbers are still respectable. Brian Dopirak is doing a decent job at the plate (.814 OPS). 2008's first round pick, David Cooper, had a big day yesterday (3-4 with a double) and is now hitting .276/.364/.397.

On the pitching side, Fabio Castro and Reidier Gonzalez continue to light it up - Castro is 2-0 with a 0.83 ERA over 21 2/3 innings and, even more impressively, 24 Ks to just 3 walks. Gonzalez has also been impressive, with a 1.37 ERA and a 15/6 K/BB ratio over 26 1/3 innings. Marc Rzepzynski is having significant control problems (14 walks in 19 1/3 innnings) but has been striking out everyone (27 Ks) and generally still getting the job done (3-1, 4.58 ERA).

Dunedin

Moses Sierra continues to torch the ball and is now hitting .340/.397/.603 with half of his hits of the extra base variety. Fellow outfielders Darrin Mastroianni and Eric Thames have fallen off a bit but both are still doing a very solid job (.873 and .866 OPSes, respectively). 2007 draftees Justin Jackson, Kevin Ahrens, and John Tolisano aren't hitting a lick (Ahrens .470 OPS is the best of the three). Adam Loewen has just joined the team and played in his first two games.

On the pitching side, the starters are struggling while the relievers are doing well, particularly Tim Collins, who has a 20/1 K/BB ratio over 11 innings. 2007 draftee Trystan Magnuson is also doing well after struggling in his first full professional season last year.

Lansing

Outfielder Johermyn Chavez is treating the ball like a villain from the old Batman TV series, to the tune of .391/.420/.761. Chavez already has 4 home runs, a triple, and 4 doubles in 13 games, and he doesn't seem to be slowing down. Other than outfielder Brian Van Kirk (1.012 OPS), the other Lugnuts, are struggling at the plate, particularly Balbino Fuenmayor (.257 OPS) and Tyler Pastornicky (.547 OPS).

Back next time!

Talking 'Bout My Generation: Minor League Update

hugo — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 17:09:24 -0000

Las Vegas

The 51s are just 4 games into the season due to a series of rainouts and they have yet to win a game (though there is a double header today that will hopefully change that.) Career minor-leaguer Randy Ruiz is off to a hot start, hitting .471/.444/.824 over his first 17 at-bats. Joe Inglett hasn't let his demotion affect his bat, putting him in a good situation for when he works his voodoo. He is OPSing an even 1.000, though he has made 2 errors in the field. Scott Campbell is off to a slower start, hitting just .235 with 4 singles over his first 4 games but most recently had a good game on Monday, going 1-3 with a walk. Campbell has also made two errors (both in the same game), showing his inexperience at third base. Jason Lane wasn't able to carry over his hot spring into the first week of the minor-league season, batting .222/.263/.278 thusfar.

On the pitching side, Brad Mills had a rough start, going 3 2/3 innings, walking three and striking out 1, and surrendering 6 hits and runs, though only 3 of the runs were earned. Wade Miller is trying to rebuild his career and his first start didn't go well at all, walking 7 over his 4 2/3 innings and thus giving up 6 runs (5 earned) even though he only surrendered 2 hits. Brian Bullington didn't start but did well in a 4-inning relief appearance, giving up 4 hits and 2 runs (1 earned run) while striking out 2 and not walking a batter. Brett Cecil made the last start for the 51s and was doing just fine over his first 4 innings before unraveling in the 5th. All told, he surrendered 5 runs, though only 2 were earned and walked 2 (1 K) over his 4 innings. As Tom mentioned, the hitter-friendly PCL isn't the best environment in which to evaluate pitchers, and of course it's only 1 start.

New Hampshire

After 6 games, Brad Emaus, who impressed us all this spring, is the standout offensive player. Emaus is hitting .364/.417/.545 and already has 4 doubles. Brian Jeroloman is also doing a nice job offensively, so far hitting /.318/.375/.409. 2008 first-round pick David Cooper is off to a bit of a slower start but does have a home run. On the pitching side, Reider Gonzalez has a hot hand with a 1.23 ERA and 5/1 K/BB ratio over 2 starts. Marc Rzepcynzski was fantastic his first time out (9 Ks over 5 innings and 1 ER allowed, though he did surrender 4 walks) but struggled mightily his second time out. 13 K's over 8 innings is great, 8 walks, not so much. Fabio Castro and Luis Perez have also made good starts, which Zach Dials, Nate Starner, and Adrian Martin have pitched well in relief.

Dunedin

After 5 games, outfielders Eric Thames, Darrin Mastroianni, and Moses Sierra are off to great starts. The 2008 draftee Thames, looking like a steal, is hitting .400/.526/.667 with 3 extra base hits, a steal, and 3 walks to just one strikeout. Mastroianni is doing great out of the leadoff spot, with a .542 OBP thusfar (including 4 walks in 5 games) and 6 steals while having not been caught. And Sierra is OPSing .915 and also has 2 doubles and a triple in 5 games. Justin Jackson is off to a decent start at the plate, though he has 2 errors in the field already. On the pitching side, second-round 2008 pick Andrew Liebel has struggled a bit while Tim(bit) Collins has done anything but, striking out 7 and walking no one in 4 1/3 innings.

Lansing

No one is hitting yet for the Lugnuts -- not Tyler Pastornicky (class of 2008, SS), not Johermyn Chavez (OF), not Jon Talley, (C) not Kenny Wilson (OF), not the Balbino (3B), not Marcus Brisker (OF), though there have only been 4 games. Nothing yet to report on the pitching side.

Well, that's it for now. I'll keep doing this about weekly for as long as folks find it fun and/or helpful. Of course it will become more meaningful as the season goes on.

Oh, and by the way, I won't insult anyone's musical intelligence by saying from where today's title comes. But a friend of mine who has kids was telling me how someone bought his kids a cd of "popular" musicians singing classic rock songs. Apparently one of the songs was a rendition of "My Generation" by a Hannah Montana-type person where she changes the lyrics to say "I hope I don't die before I get old." That was about the funniest thing I've ever heard.

Opening Day

Tom Dakers — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 14:57:38 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

Mr. Opening Day, Doc Halladay (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

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Just a few hours from baseball that means something....YAY. Can't wait to see Doc throw the first pitch.

There is one bit of news from Jay land; Matt Clement has decided to retire:

"I was talking to Matty," Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi said on Sunday. "His heart wasn't in it, you could just tell. He's come back from so much. He's come a long way, and I give him credit for that. I think he was just tired of fighting, to be honest with you.

It is too bad but I think Brent Cecil and Brad Mills have likely jumped him in the line to be called up if/when needed and Wade Miller may soon pass him too. He pitched this spring like a guy afraid to challenge anyone.

Opening day, lets have a poll:

Poll

How many games will the Jays win this year?

Less than 75

13 votes

76-79

15 votes

80-83

41 votes

84-87

37 votes

88-93

36 votes

More than 94

22 votes

164 votes | Poll has closed

54-46 What's My Number: Looking at Rotation Spots, and the Jays' Rotation, by tRA+

hugo — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 16:02:08 -0000

So with lots of focus on the battle for the Jays' rotation, I thought it'd make sense to look at what teams are actually getting from these different rotation spots and what the Jays might be able to expect. And what better way to introduce a number-centric post than with a classic song by the great Toots and the Maytals?

If you've never heard of tRA, it's discussed here. The purpose is to get one metric that really tells us how good a pitcher is. ERA is a good measure of a pitcher's past value but is way too dependent on context and chance to be a good predictor, and FIP and its variants only take strikeouts, walks, and home runs into account. tRA takes into account other things such as batted ball data - since not every batted ball has the same possibility of creating a run. tRA+ is normalized for league average so that a 105 tRA+ is 5% better than the average pitcher.

Anyway, here are the ranges for different spots in the rotation, based on the work from the good folks at Lookout Landing and Stat Corner:

119 and up: #1 Starter

107-118: #2 Starter

96-106: #3 Starter

87-95: #4 Starter

76 - 86: #5 Starter

Now, of course, these are for spots in the rotation over the full course of the season, not for individual starters who line up in those spots at the beginning of the year. That is to say, pitchers get hurt a lot, and often their replacements are not as good as they are. For a team like the Jays, though, with many rotation candidates and some minor-leaguers who could be ready to come in and do a nice job, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

Last season, Doc put up a tRA+ of 134. He also pitched almost 250 innings. That's incredibly valuable in this type of analysis (and really, let's face it, any type of analysis) in that it is way above the threshold for what's considered a #1 pitcher and his innings actually would bleed over into the #2 slot. While he might not replicate that performance in 2009, he's a good bet to throw at least 200 innings and to continue to be better than the average ace. Slot one solved.

In slot two, things get tricky. Shaun Marcum and A.J. Burnett were both above-average #2 starters last season (actually, by tRA+, Burnett was right on the cusp of beng an ace), but they're both out of the picture for this season. Jesse Litsch is projected to be the Jays #2 starter and he was no more than a solid #3 (103) by tRA+. Since we know Litsch actually put up great numbers last season, tRA suggests that he is a regression candidate for 2009 in terms of results. Litsch would have to raise his game a little to come within the #2 starter band - not an impossible feat considering he improved quite a bit last season and is now entering his third season as a starter. I would also say that Doc is enough above average for the number 1 spot to balance out Litsch's presence in the number 2 spot, all other things considered equal. There was a time when I would've included the possibility that Dustin McGowan, another guy in the #2 starter band last season, would contribute to the Jays #2 spot this season, but that's now not looking likely. I think we'd better leave him out of this part of the equation.

In the #3 spot, David Purcey had a 97 tRA+ last season. That's in the band for number 3 starters, albeit on the low end. However, I think it's reasonable to expect some improvement from Purcey this year - plus if you remove his spot starts and just look at when he was a regular member of the rotation, he immediately becomes a fine number 3. It's tough to predict what Purcey will do this season; however, this spring, he has been throwing strikes, and that will go a long way to his success in 2009. Even if he replicates his performance from last season, we're in the ballpark. So far, so good.

Now for the really tricky part. Some combination of Matt Clement, Scott Richmond, Brad Mills, Casey Janssen, Dustin McGowan, Brett Cecil, Wade Miller, Shawn Hill (who the Jays are apparently ready to sign), Ricky Romero, and probably some others are going to need to fire some innings at a below-league-average but not completely terrible rate. Looking at those numbers, this seems possible but it's hard to predict as it's looking likely that many different hurlers will get to try their hand.

For example, Scott Richmond had a 141 tRA+ last season in 5 starts. Tiny sample size, I know, but there it is. Can he be an average number 4 starter? Looking at those numbers, it's tough to say he can't be. Casey Janssen is still on track to pitch for the Jays as a starter this season, and Janssen had a 104 tRA+ as a starter in 2006 - actually, it would make him an above-average #3 starter. That would be more than good enough for one of the two back-end spots in the rotation. While it's true that Janssen is coming off major surgery, we should also point out that that was his first taste of the majors and that he was pitching through a back injury for a good part of that time. Dustin McGowan had a 108 tRA+ last season in what was a bit of a lost year. I know we can't count on him coming back and pitching as well, but if he is able to do so, even for a few months after the all-star break, that will go a long way.

Brad Mills and Brett Cecil look close to ready to contribute too - I'm personally not sold on Mills until he demonstrates he can pitch at a high level for at least half a season, but the Jays love him and there must be a reason for that. Cecil would probably stack up as an above-average starter this season if given the chance, and it looks very likely that he will be pitching with the Jays for a significant portion of the season. And Ricky Romero is still hanging around and could contribute.

As for the reclamation projects, over the course of the season its not asking too much to think they can be as good as an average 5th starter. The bar isn't very high, and the Jays have nothing invested in any of them so if they're not pitching well, the Jays won't hesitate to move them along.

Put it this way, for the 4th spot, the composite doesn't even have to be as good as Purcey was last season, and I think the Jays are a lot more comfortable with their options this year than they were in the middle of last season when they threw Purcey into the fire. At the least, they have a lot more options to try. For the 5th spot, the composite just needs to avoid abject disaster, and the Jays should be able to do between their mix of veterans who used to be good and young pitchers who might not be perfectly ready but have promise.

All in all, even with recent setbacks to Janssen and McGowan, I think it's reasonable to expect the Jays to have an average starting rotation. That is, if Doc, Litsch, and Purcey stay healthy. Doc is Doc and Litsch seems pretty durable to me (he pitched almost 200 innings between AAA and the Jays last season and was going deeper into games by the end). Purcey could be an injury risk, given that he threw a lot more last season (182 innings) than ever before. If he were to go down, particularly early in the season when Janssen, McGowan, and Cecil might not be ready to step in, our rotation could be exposed.

One other factor that we haven't discussed is that tRA doesn't take into account the quality of a team's defense. In the case of the Jays, it's a very good defense that isn't being taken into account, both at avoiding unearned runs (second-least errors in the AL last season) and, more importantly, converting batted balls into outs. In fact, as we'll discuss soon, there's every chance that the Jays' defense could be even better this season. The defense won't help the pitchers tRA numbers, but it will help limit runs scored such that you might expect that even if the Jays starters are slightly below average, as a group, in tRA, the defense will compensate and actually make the Jays' starters better than average at actually preventing runs. That said, last season, Doc, Marcum, and Litsch overperformed their tRA, while Burnett, McGowan, and Purcey underperformed it. Litsch is an example of someone who could profit from this - while his numbers in isolation peg him as a number 3 starter, as a groundballer there's a possibility that the Jays' defense could help him get results in line with a good number two starter. In fact, that's exactly what happened last season.

Of course we know that the Jays have to be better than merely average to reach their goal of making the playoffs, particularly in the AL East. While they have many options who could provide average performances from the pitching mound in a starting role, only Doc looks prepared to give them the real above-average performance that teams need to make a playoff push.