SB Nation - Felix Pie

Top Moments '09: No. 8 - Papelbon's Payback

ltrain2 — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 11:00:16 -0000

by Michael Dwyer - AP

Jonathan Papelbon, who thanks to OTM's memorable moment #8, is the Boston Red Sox's all-time saves leader.

OTM COVERAGE: Randy Booth's recap of the Red Sox's memorable moment #8 of 2009

GAME RECAP: 07/01/2009 - Baltimore Orioles 5 Boston Red Sox 6 (11 innings)

Less than 24 hours after the Baltimore Orioles had completed the greatest comeback in the history of their franchise at the hands of the Red Sox, coming from 10 runs behind using just their final six outs, Boston got themselves a little redemption in a similar fashion.

Just one game prior to the events that led to OTM's #8 moment of 2009, the Orioles staged a 10-run comeback stunning the visiting Red Sox at Camden Yards, leaving closer Jonathan Papelbon still searching that elusive save that would leave him alone atop the franchise's list of career saves leaders.

Watching this game, I remember for a short-period of time almost rooting for the Orioles as they closed the once insurmountable gap, impatient and excited about the opportunity to see Papelbon become the Red Sox's all-time saves leader. After the game, I felt guilty, regretful, and somewhat responsible for what had transpired. Needless to say, the game for which this article is based on was a relief for not only Papelbon and the rest of the Red Sox, but myself as well.

The Red Sox had to enter the game with a little bit of a hangover-effect, and despite having their ace Josh Beckett slated to start, the first inning seemed to be a continuation of the last few innings from the nightmare that occurred the night before. After the Sox left Dustin Pedroia stranded in the top half, lead-off man Brian Roberts did his job by drawing a walk and advancing into scoring position via a theft of second base, ultimately scoring on a Felix Pie RBI-single. 1-0 Orioles after one (sigh, I thought we were playing Baltimore?).

Inning number two was accompanied by more anguish, in both halves of the frame. In the top, the Red Sox were again victimized by a struggling offense and added another zero to the scoreboard. Luke Scott wasted no time in adding to the lead starting off the bottom of the second, blasting the first pitch that he was offered from Josh Beckett over the center field wall to make it 2-0 in favor of Baltimore.

Boston would finally get on the board in the third, albiet adding just one run, only to continue the trend that was evident to this point. 'Anything you can do, we can do better,' seemed to be the home club's motto in the beginning of this particular contest. And that they did scoring two runs in response to Boston's one by way of a Nick Markakis 2-RBI double. 4-1 now, Orioles continuing their domination.

Baltimore would add yet another run in the following inning, making it four straight frames in which Beckett surrendered at least one run, and bringing the two teams to the 5-1 score that would remain until the 9th.

The top of the ninth began with the Orioles' decision to remove Bergesen (8 inngings, 1 run, 6 strikeouts, 0 walks, and only two base-runners advancing past first base) in favor of reliever Jim Johnson. This is where everything started to go wrong, or right depending on where your allegiance lies in relation to these two teams.

Johnson proceded to walk Dustin Pedroia, serve up a 2-1 fastball that Kevin Youkilis sent into the seats, then take a walk to the dugout giving way to George Sherrill. Sherrill started off in a positive way, striking out David Ortizfor the first out, but that's about where his success ended in this outing. Ellsbury singled with one out, Bailey and Varitek both drew walks, and with the bases loaded pinch-hitter Rocco Baldelli plated two with a single knotting the score up at 5-5. After walking Drew, Johnson exited much to the appreciation of Orioles fan everywhere, and new pitcher Danny Baez got Pedroia to foul out ending the inning.

After a rather uneventful following inning and a half, the Red Sox offense struck again in the 11th. Ellsbury led off the inning with a double, subsequently moving to third on a Bailey sacrifice fly. In steps defensive wiz and always potent offensive threat Julio Lugo. Sure, maybe a little too much credit awarded in the previous sentence (or a lot depending on how strong your grip on reality is), but during this particular at-bat you wouldn't know it. Lugo shocked the world, mainly the fans who watched him play with the Red Sox on a regular basis, by coming through with what would eventually become the game-winning RBI single.

Lugo's hit in the top half of the inning set the stage for Papelbon's most notable save to this point in his career, number 133, surpassing former Red Sox saves leader Bob Stanley.

Papelbon and the rest of the relievers involved in this game were the biggest reason that Boston was able to come back and get the victory (sorry, Julio). After Beckett turned in a sub-par outing, the first four frames in particular, Red Sox's pitchers retired the game's final 24 hitters to give the offense a chance to complete the epic comeback.

All-in-all, this game was memorable for several reasons. One, Boston completed an impressive come from behind victory, made even more notable by the previous night's events. Also, the 24 straight retired by the Boston pitching staff to end the game was astonishing to watch. But most of all, this game's significance lies with Jonathan Papelbon and his place in the Red Sox's record books.

Poll

What will you remember most regarding OTM's memorable moment #8 from the 2009 season?

Holliday's Mystery Suitor: Baltimore

DanUpBaby — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 07:51:00 -0000

Nothing says Lukewarm Stove season like a rebuilding team making bids on the biggest remaining free agent contract of the offseason. I don't want to start doubting Scott Boras now, because he's given me no reason to in the past, but if the Orioles are being floated as the other team this late in the game—well, the Yankees and Mets are presumably way under the radar on this one.

I actually wouldn't hate this move from Baltimore's standpoint. They've got a pretty good system, with some young pitching set to renovate what was a hilariously bad rotation—they collectively managed 58 quality starts, six fewer than the next team and 41 fewer than league leading Atlanta—and signing Garrett Atkins and trading for Kevin Millwood are low-risk moves that will be an easy upgrade from Melvin Mora and the back of that rotation's awful work. The Orioles, like the Pirates in the NL Central, simply can't afford to be terrible any more; their attendance has fallen into a huge hole and they're in a division that squashes the hopes and dreams of plucky fans as a matter of course. Their moves in this offseason have pushed them toward being respectable in the short term without hindering their chances of being good in the long term.

But while spending a ton of money on a free agent would be the perfect capper to an offseason designed to inspire fanbase confidence, this is not the right offseason, and Matt Holliday is not the right free agent. The Orioles already have too many cheap, effective outfielders—Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold, perpetual tradebait Luke Scott, and former Cubs super-prospect and erstwhile hometown discount inducer Felix Pie are all competing for at-bats—and all of their most pressing needs, and the easiest places to pick up runs against a troupe of very real replacement players, are on the pitching side. O's management seems to have understood that to this point, replacing their worst players with some potentially average players and Mike Gonzalez. Holliday would be a step back from that plan.

Of course, the Orioles not making their rumored move does not mean the Cardinals do sign him, as wonderful a system as that would be. All that implausibility still leaves Matt Holliday wanting more than $128 million, and the Cardinals (reasonably) not wanting quite that much Matt Holliday.

The payroll is not a gift card; the money DeWitt is planning to spend right now does not expire, and if he spends it all in the next thirty days he will not receive an even larger inheritance. But the Cardinals' other options are looking increasingly unappetizing. From a blurb about how the Cardinals are not interested in Chien-Ming Wang, but might be:

The Cardinals have said if they fail to re-sign Holliday they could turn to signing a veteran starting pitcher for the fifth spot in the rotation. Their preference would be to do so on a one-year deal.

Try not to be too excited about that sentence, or this one, because according to VEB's hit-tracker you're probably reading it at work: if the Cardinals do not manage to sign a popular, slugging outfielder to the largest contract in the history of the franchise, thereby setting its course for the next decade, they could sign a veteran starting pitcher like Chien-Ming Wang to a one-year deal. For all we know, this conditional has been around for the last several years—the Cardinals didn't sign Matt Holliday in any of them, and as a result picked up Kyle Lohse, Kip Wells, Brett Tomko, and Matt Clement.

I don't envy Mozeliak and DeWitt here; this is simply awful timing for the Cardinals' last serious free-payroll run at the free agent market before they need to worry about Pujols. Jason Bay, whose contractual demands—he might want five years—are relatively piddling, is the only other Big Name player on the market, and the defensive collapse brought on by his knee problems in 2007 makes him a much riskier upgrade. If Holliday falls through, that's it; for all their good intentions, the Cardinals will have little choice but to have a typical Cardinals offseason.

If that means an outfield cobbled together from spare parts, here's my current pick—a Jack Cust/Allen Craig platoon with a variation on the old Killer Bees tag team trick. La Russa has them both wear masks, and between innings Brendan Ryan is used to create a distraction; if pro wrestling has taught me anything, and it has, the umpire won't know that Craig has secretly taken left field while his back was turned.

Non-Holliday front: Future Redbirds has begun counting down their top twenty Cardinals prospects. Notable, given our discussion of Sickels's list: Bryan Anderson rates thirteenth.

Rumor: Orioles interested in Matt Holliday

Stacey — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 06:40:20 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Matt ponders the possibility of being reunited with Garrett Atkins. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi report that the Orioles are pursuing, at some level, Matt Holliday.

The Orioles have jumped into the bidding, though both the seriousness of their efforts and Holliday’s desire to play in Baltimore are in question, major-league sources say.

Holliday, 29, is unlikely to go to the Orioles — a team coming off 12 straight losing seasons — unless they make him a much stronger offer than the Cardinals

The article details a number of reasons Holliday to the O's makes sense, including the O's young talent, their low payroll, and the fact that Holliday and new Oriole Garrett Atkins are BFF.

I think everyone would agree that, regardless of whether or not it's a good idea, the chance of Holliday coming to the O's is a long shot at best. Unfortunately for Scott Boras and Matt Holliday, neither the Yankees or Red Sox seem interested in signing the left fielder. It's possible that the Cardinals are bidding against themselves right now and somebody put the word out there that the Orioles are in it to give the illusion that there is more demand than actually exists.

If the Orioles are legitimately interested in Matt Holliday, I personally don't think it's a good idea. It's not that I think he's not a good player; he's obviously quite good. But he's going to cost a ton of money and he plays the outfield. Of all the problems the Orioles currently have, the outfield isn't one. The rumored offer on the table from the Cardinals is 5 years at $16M/year, and you'd have to think the O's would need to go beyond that to get Holliday to Baltimore. With Nick Markakis and Adam Jones anchored in the outfield, Nolan Reimold not far behind, and Felix Pie ready to pick up any slack, that's $16M a year that would be much better served filling the O's needs in the infield or to continue to build up the pitching staff.

Of course, signing Holliday would provide the Orioles with the flexibility to trade Reimold or move him to DH. I don't know what kind of trade value he'd have right now as he's had part of one successful major league season and is coming off injury. But moving him to DH would allow Luke Scott to be traded, or if not, put at 1B on a regular basis. Holliday could also DH some to give Pie time in the outfield. I mean, it does open up possibilities.

But $16M a year for an outfielder? Count me out.

Orioles considering oft-injured Ben Sheets, others?

Eli Greenspan — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 19:03:51 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

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MASN.com is reporting that the Orioles will consider adding a "high risk, high reward" pitcher like Ben Sheets. The Orioles have several young players that very well could make the Orioles a contender sooner than expected.

With Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and veteran Brian Roberts, the Orioles are poised to put up better offensive numbers than they did last season, which should benefit pitchers Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, and Brad Bergeson.

The Orioles still have Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie, who both went on impressive streaks during the season. Still, inconsistency is a big issue.

Before adding a pitcher like Ben Sheets, who may only be able to give you 5-6 innings per start, improving the bullpen is important to making the investment worthwhile. The Orioles were 28th in the league in bullpen ERA (4.83), and could use an experienced closer to hold leads or to keep games close.

Guys like LaTroy Hawkins, Kevin Gregg, Scott Eye, or Juan Rincon would improve the inefficiencies in the bullpen.

The Changing of the O's

Stacey — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:12:47 -0000

2007 - Pre-MacPhail. 2010 - Based solely on current players. How much have we improved, really? Discuss. Is it fair to say that the only position where the 2010 Orioles are worse off than the 2007 Orioles is shortstop?

All lineups are based on who played that most games at that position in each year.

2007 Baltimore Orioles	2008 Baltimore Orioles	2009 Baltimore Orioles	2010 Baltimore Orioles
C: Ramon Hernandez	C: Ramon Hernandez	C: Matt Wieters	C: Matt Wieters
1B: Kevin Millar	1B: Kevin Millar	1B: Aubrey Huff	1B: Luke Scott
2B: Brian Roberts	2B: Brian Roberts	2B: Brian Roberts	2B: Brian Roberts
3B: Melvin Mora	3B: Melvin Mora	3B: Melvin Mora	3B: Ty Wigginton
SS: Miguel Tejada	SS: Juan Castro	SS: Cesar Izturis	SS: Cesar Izturis
LF: Jay Payton	LF: Luke Scott	LF: Nolan Reimold	LF: Felix Pie
CF: Corey Patterson	CF: Adam Jones	CF: Adam Jones	CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis	RF: Nick Markakis	RF: Nick Markakis	RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Aubrey Huff	DH: Aubrey Huff	DH: Luke Scott	DH: Nolan Reimold

It wasn't all bad in '09: Best Offensive Performances by the Orioles

Stacey — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 23:11:25 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

In 2010 the top 7 offensive performances by an Oriole will all be by Matt Wieters. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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Baseball-Reference.com just revamped their Play Index tool and I've been messing around with it to learn all the new features. They've added some good stuff, so far my favorite is that you can do a search on how many times a player did something in his career. Last summer when Brian Roberts hit his 50th double, I was really interested to see how many players had more than one 50 double season. This new feature wasn't available so I had to do a search on 50 or more doubles and sort by name. Not anymore!

Anyway, I was doing some searches on the 2009 Orioles and it got me wondering who had the best individual performance at the plate this year. The first thing that came to my mind was the cycle by Felix Pie, followed by Luke Scott's monster day at the plate on Matt Wieters Day. It's obviously subjective, but after doing some searching on B-R.com, I've come up with a short list of finalists.

Luke Scott - July 11th @ Seattle. LUUUKE drove in two runs in the first inning off of Erik Bedard, then socked it to the Mariners bullpen with a two run triple in the 6th and a 3 run homer in the 7th. His final line: 3-4, 3B, HR, 2 R, 7 RBI. GameThread and recap.
Ty Wigginton - June 14th vs Atlanta. Wiggy had three hits including two home runs to lead the O's in an 11-2 butt kicking of the Braves. His line: 3-4, 4 R, 3 RBI, BB, 2 HR. GameThread and recap.
Matt Wieters - September 15th @ TB. Your personal Savior had the best game of his young career on this night. After falling behind the Rays 5-0, the offense staged a comeback led by Wieters who went 3-5 with a HR, a 2B, a BB, 2 R, and 5 RBI. GameThread and recap.
Felix Pie - August 14th vs Los Angeles/Anaheim. You all know the game. Felix hit for the cycle, saving the triple for last. He ended the game with 4 hits, 3 runs, and 4 RBI. He also made Mike Scioscia look like a tool by apologizing for being too excited. GameThread and recap.
Brian Roberts - Sept 12th @ New York. This game is better known as the night Brian Matusz mopped the floor with the Yankees, but Brian Bob had a pretty big night himself. With two runs already scored in the top of the 2nd inning, Roberts launched a grand slam off of A.J. Burnett. He'd add 2 more hits on the night, including his 51st 2B of the year to end the night 3-4 with 1 R, 4 RBI, 2B, HR. GameThread and recap.
Adam Jones - May 12th vs Tampa Bay. Dr. Jones only had two hits on the night but he made them count as he homered in back-to-back innings. The O's won 7-5 with Adam going 2-4 with 2 R, 4 RBI, and 2 HR. GameThread and recap.
Luke Scott - May 29th vs Detroit. I didn't really want to list any players twice but how could I leave this one out? Since coming to the American League, Luke Scott has made the Tigers miserable. On this, Matt Wieters Night, Luke continued his assault with 3 hits, 2 of which were HR (one being a grand slam), 5 RBI, 2 R, and a BB for good measure. GameThread and recap.

There are probably a number of other good individual performances, but the list was getting a little long, and that game where Nicky hit the grand slam was so awful I didn't want to look at the recap. So what do you say? Who of the above had the greatest offensive night of '09 for the O's?

Poll

What was the greatest night for an Orioles hitter?

Luke Scott vs the Mariners (3-4, HR, 3B, 2 R, 7 RBI)

51 votes

Ty Wigginton vs the Braves (3-4, 2 HR, BB, 4 R, 3 RBI)

2 votes

Matt Wieters vs. the Rays (3-4, HR, 2B, BB, 2 R, 5 RBI)

11 votes

Felix Pie vs the Angels (4-4, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, 3 R, 4 RBI)

71 votes

Brian Roberts vs the Yankees (3-4, Grand Slam, 2B, BB, 1 R, 4 RBI)

14 votes

Adam Jones vs the Rays (2 HR in consecutive innings, 2 R, 4 RBI)

6 votes

Luke Scott vs the Tigers (3-3, 2 HR, BB, 2 R, 5 RBI)

22 votes

Others - explain in the comments.

1 votes

178 votes | Poll has closed

Where In The World Is The Washington Nationals' Elijah Dukes? [UPDATED: 6:28 pm EST 11/9]

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 08:42:38 -0000

More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

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(ed. note - "Within 12 hours of posting this story, fans of Elijah Dukes, who were wondering when or even if he'd make his way down to the Dominican Winter League to play with the Tigres del Licey, got an answer. According to an article by Daniel Rufenacht at Licey.com (the team's official site) entitled, (or roughly translated as) "Major League Infield":

"In the Dominican league, until the middle of November, the teams play inexperienced players, veterans of smaller leagues and Mexico...

...In the next few days, Elijah Dukes, Jose Batista and Felix Pie will be integrated into the Tigres' roster."

When he arrives in the Dominican Republic, Dukes will join Nationals' infielder Ian Desmond and former Nationals Wily Mo Pena, Emiliano Bonifacio, Bernie Castro, Anderson Hernandez and Daniel Cabrera in the Licey lineup, as he attempts to work on hitting the breaking balls Dukes identified as his main weakness at the plate in several year-ending articles...Read the original story after the JUMP...")

(ed. note - "Thanks, and a head nod to FB.com regular CD3K for tracking down the article and providing the initial translations.")

In early September several sources reported that Washington Nationals' outfielder Elijah Dukes would be playing Winter Ball with the Tigres del Licey this offseason as he attempted to address what he saw as his main weakness at the plate, hitting the curve. Washington Post writer Chico Harlan spoke with Dukes about his plans in an article entitled, "At Pivotal Point in Career, Dukes Trying To Step It Up", in which Dukes explained that he didn't need to take the winter off:

"I don't really want no time off," Dukes said. "I just want to keep seeing it, keep seeing it, until spring training of next year. I just haven't figured it out yet. . . . The curveball is the last piece."

So where is Elijah Dukes? He hasn't played in the DWL yet?

MLB.com's Bill Ladson, who wrote about Dukes' winter plans in the DWL in a 9/5/09 blog post entitled, "Elijah Dukes to play winter ball", talked about the 25-year-old outfielder in the most recent edition of Mr. Ladson's "Inbox: What role will Morse play", where he responded to a question about pursuing free agent outfielder Jermaine Dye by stating that he sees Dukes as the Nationals' '09 right fielder:

"I don't see Dukes on the bench. As I say that, the 2010 season is the year Dukes must show that he can reach his full potential."

But there was no mention of what Dukes is doing right now to improve his chances of winning the job in right field or work on hitting curves...As of Sunday, Dukes' name was not on the Tigres' roster...Emiliano Bonifacio played right field for Licey last night...Anyone know when or if Dukes will be playing in the DWL?

Link: When Dukes played in the DWL in 2007, he had reported to the Tigres del Licey by the first week of October...

A Preliminary Look at the 2010 AL East Offenses - Part 3

Stacey — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 22:33:41 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

Bring it. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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The final look at Bill James' projections will focus on the Orioles young outfield. In Part 1 I drooled over Matt Wieters, in Part 2 I went into fantasyland, and here in Part 3 I will bask in the talent of the Orioles outfield.

It's hardly news to anyone here that the Orioles outfield is one of the most promising in baseball. All four outfielders will be 26 or younger on Opening Day 2010, all have shown a lot of promise, and one has already established himself as one of the most solid outfielders in the MLB. There will surely be discussions here about what exactly to do with the outfielders given that over the course of 2009 four of them showed they are capable of being starters. Should Nolan DH with Pie in LF? Would the outfield be better with Pie in CF and Jones in LF? Is Pie too good to be a 4th OF? Should he be traded for something the Orioles need more? These are the best kinds of questions to have because they all revolve around the actual talent of the players. It's a far cry from the O's outfields of recent past (Players to man the outfield for the Orioles from 2005-2008: Jeff Fiorentino, Eli Marrero, Eric Byrnes, 40 year old B.J. Surhoff, Jay Payton, Corey Patterson, Jay Gibbons, Tike Redman, 40 year old Jeff Conine, Luis Matos, David Newhan, Sammy Sosa, Larry Bigbie, Brandon Fahey, Luis Terrero, Freddie Bynum, Lou Montanez, Luke Scott, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis).

I'm going to operate under the assumption that the Orioles outfield will be, from left to right: Nolan Reimold, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis, with Felix Pie being the 4th outfielder who hopefully gets a good chunk of playing time. It's also safe to assume that at least one of the starters will have some injury problems (*cough* Adam Jones) and it would be nice to have someone competent to fill in.

Right Field

Nick Markakis' 2009 was something of a disappointment. After watching his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage increase each of his first three years in the majors, they all took a step back in 2009. His walks were nearly cut in half from 2008 to 2009 which resulted in about a 50 point drop in OBP. It was disheartening to watch, but I'm not worried about Nick. I'm sure he'll be just fine. Of course, if it happens again in 2010 I will probably have a melt down.

Nick Markakis	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James '09 projections	159	598	185	46	22	104	99	83	99	.309	.396	.503	.899
Markakis '09 stats	161	642	188	45	18	94	101	56	98	.293	.347	.453	.801
James '10 projections	161	630	189	47	21	101	103	72	103	.300	.374	.481	.855

Really, if you think about it, Nick's plate discipline was the only real thing that took a hit in 2009. Will that stick in the future? I don't think so. Whatever was happening with him I have the confidence that he'll be able to get it together. zknower hypothesized that the trade of Aubrey Huff took a toll on Nick, and FanGraphs pointed out that he started swinging more at pitches outside the strike zone and less at pitches inside the strike zone. FanGraphs also talks about his defensive dip, but I won't bother with that as one year of defensive data is hardly incriminating. I think in 2010 those numbers will go back up, he'll hit 40-45 doubles and 20ish home runs, and he'll take a few more walks. James has his OBP projected to .374, obviously affected by his 2009 season. That's not the .400 I hope to see from Nick, but it would have been tops on the team this year.

James '10 Projections	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Swisher	150	507	125	32	26	85	80	90	131	.247	.365	.467	.833
J.D. Drew	142	498	134	30	22	90	76	91	119	.269	.385	.474	.859
Matt Joyce	120	375	97	27	17	59	60	49	92	.259	.346	.483	.829
Jose Bautista	121	369	89	21	13	51	48	48	90	.241	.335	.409	.744

Man. Look, I know the Orioles suck. They lost 98 games, they have a bunch of question marks, they're not in any place to point fingers. But wow, do the Blue Jays have a lousy lineup. It wasn't that long ago that the Blue Jays outfield looked pretty sweet with Alex Rios manning right and Vernon Wells in center. They signed them both to extensions (Wells' was ridiculous from the get-go, but Rios' didn't seem too bad) and then they both started to stink. They're stuck with Wells; no one is going to take him when he makes $20M a year. They gave Rios to the White Sox for nothing but payroll relief and he played even worse there. So now it looks like their option in RF is Jose Bautista. He played LF for most of the year but after Rios left he moved to RF to make room for prospect Travis Snider. I took a glance at John Sickels' Pre-2009 prospect list and there doesn't appear to be anyone waiting in the wings, so barring a FA signing or trade, it's Jose Bautista.

Matt Joyce played just a handful of games at the big league level in 2009 but he seems to be the heir apparent to RF in Tampa Bay. Joyce, you might remember, was traded to the Rays by the Tigers in exchange for Edwin Jackson. Joyce has had two successful seasons in AAA so it seems there's nowhere left to go for him but up. The Rays re-signed Gabe Kapler to a 1 year deal so I'd imagine he'll get a chunk of time in RF as well.

J.D. Drew played 137 games in 2009. I predict he will play anywhere from 75-150 games next year. Dude tends to get hurt, but he's a great player. I would be very happy if Nick Markakis grew up to be a J.D. Drew clone who plays at least 155 games every year. A lot of people think Nick Swisher is a tool, but he can play. He makes up for his low-ish batting average with a ton of walks. I would be very happy if Nick Markakis grew up to be Nick Swisher plus 50 points on BA.

Verdict: I'll take Nicky every time. He's the youngest of any of them besides Joyce, he's always healthy, and he'll throw your ass out at second if you try to run.

Center Field

Oh Adam Jones. You're the center fielder of my dreams. You've made me forget all about the center fielders I adored as a young girl. Brady who? Devo what? You hit home runs, you leap over walls, you blow bubbles. You're just plain cool. And you're only 24! Thanks for coming into my life.

Adam Jones	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James '09 projections	150	480	134	24	15	71	65	30	108	.279	.326	.444	.770
Jones '09 stats	119	473	131	22	19	83	70	36	93	.277	.335	.457	.792
James '10 projections	154	571	162	29	22	95	83	40	115	.284	.336	.468	.804

Adam Jones is the yin to Nick Markakis' yang. In the perfect scenario, Nick is the well rounded hitter who gets on base a lot and has some pop but isn't going to mash. Adam Jones is always going to strike out some, probably won't take that many walks (although I would like to see him improve), but he'll hit you some home runs. I think 22 is a conservative estimate for Adam. He came out of the gate in 2009 absolutely crushing the ball. Then he had a few injuries and started to slump a little and couldn't quite get HR #20. He hit #19 on August 5th but then only played 20 more slumpy games before being shut down with an ankle sprain. I don't know that he'll do it in 2010, but if Adam can even himself out some and stay healthy, he'll hit 30 home runs.

James '10 predictions	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Gardner	104	325	90	11	3	63	28	45	58	.277	.368	.368	.744
Jacoby Ellsbury	157	635	192	32	9	106	62	52	73	.302	.360	.420	.780
B.J. Upton	142	507	135	30	13	59	75	67	136	.266	.354	.414	.768
Vernon Wells	144	549	149	33	19	77	77	43	75	.271	.327	.443	.769

Life is good in center field. Well, unless you're Vernon Wells. Not only is Vernon Wells 5 years older than the next oldest CF (Ellsbury), he's not all that good defensively, he can't hit, and he plays in Canada.

B.J. Upton is a mystery. While his defense is top notch, his hitting in 2009 was just atrocious. After putting up monster stats in 2007, his numbers dropped in 2008 and were anemic in 2009 as he hit .241/.313/.373. He's been touted as one of the best young talents in baseball for a number of years, but the future is cloudy for him. I honestly have no idea what to expect. Bill James projects him to be better than in '09 but worse than he was in 2008. He'll be just 25 years old on Opening Day with 513 big league games under his belt so he's already ahead of the curve. I think he has plenty of time to get it together.

Jacoby Ellsbury just finished his second full big league season and is a good guy to have on your team. In 331 career games he's stolen 129 bases with a nearly 85% success rate. He doesn't have power but he gets on base a lot and steals pretty much all the time. He hasn't posted an OPS+ over 100 in either of his two full seasons, but if he can learn to take a few more walks he could be a force at the top of their lineup. His BB% in 2009 was just 7.3%, easily worst among AL East leadoff batters. Roberts, Jeter, and Scutaro all had BB% over 10% and B.J. Upton was at 9.2%.

It might be Brett Gardner for the Yankees next year, it might be Melky Cabrera. Gardner looked like he'd get a lot of playing time in 2009 but kept getting injured. Neither of them can really hit, but Gardner runs circles around Cabrera defensively.

Verdict: Dr. Jones is the best CF in the AL East.

Left Field

While there was no doubt who would play right field and center field in 2009, left field wasn't as settled. Luke Scott wanted to play there but got sent to DH, Felix Pie was supposed to get a shot but got pulled after a few weeks, and Lou Montanez somehow got in there a bit as well. All the while Nolan Reimold just chilled at AAA Norfolk, hitting .394/.485/.743 with 18 BB, 9 HR and 11 2B in 31 games before injuries to Adam Jones, Luke Scott, and Lou Montanez forced the Orioles to call him up. Once they did Nolan didn't give them a chance to even act like they would send him back down and left field was his for the rest of the year. He was truly one of the brightest spots of 2009. Nolan hadn't spent any time above AA before 2009 so Bill James didn't do any projections for him.

Nolan Reimold	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Reimold '09 stats	104	358	100	18	15	49	45	47	77	.279	.365	.466	.831
James '10 projection	152	538	157	34	29	84	105	68	102	.292	.373	.524	.898

Remember I said before that Bill James tends to be pretty optimistic about young guys without much historic data? I'll try to keep that in mind, but when I first read those numbers I may have clapped my hands like I was Felix Pie beating out a throw to third. I mean, if Nolan Reimold can hit like that? If he can hit 29 HR in his second big league season? I won't even know what to do with myself.

James '10 Projections	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Matt Holliday	155	605	191	43	27	105	109	66	112	.316	.391	.531	.922
Jason Bay	153	560	150	32	32	99	103	88	159	.268	.374	.504	.878
Carl Crawford	140	528	156	24	12	82	62	36	84	.295	.346	.439	.786
Travis Snider	141	527	145	35	26	82	90	65	159	.275	.357	.493	.850

Yes, I made Matt Holliday a Yankee. I mean, it's inevitable, isn't it? Or maybe the Red Sox will sign him and the Yankees will settle for Jason Bay. Either way, the chart works. And can I say, left field is stacked. No offense to Adam Jones or Felix Pie, but this right here is why you don't move Reimold to DH and put one of them at LF. If Reimold can possibly put up numbers like the ones Bill James projects, that means he can play with the big boys. Yes, his defense is sometimes questioned, but it's left field. He'll be ok.

Verdict: Try not to get your hopes up too much, try not to get your hopes up too much, try not to get your hopes up too much.

And Felix

I can't leave him out, can I? Felix went from curiosity to object of disdain to most likable Oriole over the course of the season. This kid is awesome.

Felix Pie	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James '09 projections	143	498	138	26	12	70	59	33	94	.277	.320	.407	.727
Pie '09 stats	101	252	67	10	9	38	29	24	58	.266	.326	.437	.763
James '10 projections	143	345	94	18	11	53	42	27	71	.272	.325	.443	.769

James predicts that Felix will be a little better than he was in 2009. I don't know if that's true. I don't know what to believe. I know I like this kid way more than I probably should, and once I get an emotional attachment it's hard for me to be rational (see Scott, Luke). But those of us who watched Felix Pie in 2009 know that he's was like two different baseball players. If you divide his games right down the middle (so it doesn't look like I'm cherry picking), here is what you get:

First Half: 50 G, 114 PA, 3 2B, 2 HR, 10 BB, 25 K, .235/.304/.363
Second Half: 51 G, 167 PA, 7 2B, 7 HR, 14 BB, 33 K, .287/.341/.487

I know, I know. That's not enough to tell what he'll be in 2010. I agree. But his improvement was so remarkable. We saw it with our own eyes . Who knows what will happen to him, but if he can hit like that over a whole season then he can't sit on the bench. He can't. If he can hit like that over a whole season, you have to find a place he can play every day, even if it's (sniff) on another team.

I love our outfield. Here's a quick side-by-side of the OFs in the O's Division.

Orioles	Blue Jays	Rays	Red Sox	Yankees
Nick Markakis	Jose Bautista	Matt Joyce	J.D. Drew	Nick Swisher
Adam Jones	Vernon Wells	B.J. Upton	Jacoby Ellsbury	Brett Gardner
Nolan Reimold	Travis Snider	Carl Crawford	Jason Bay	Matt Holliday

Obviously Holliday is the best player on the board, but taking the outfields as a group? It's close, but I'll take the O's.

Orioles' slump not helping Dave Trembley's chances

Eli Greenspan — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 05:29:38 -0000

More photos » by Mark Avery - AP

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The Orioles are currently mired in a 12-game losing streak, winning two of their last sixteen games. Trembley has done his best to work with what with the roster given to him, adjusting to midseason trades of George Sherrill and Aubrey Huff. With the Orioles 41.5 games back, currently in line for the 3rd pick in next years draft, Trembley appears to be bracing for his release.

"You worry about it, but you try not to show it," Trembley said. "I can only imagine how difficult this has been for a whole lot of other people other than just myself. It's been difficult for the people that have loved the Baltimore Orioles for a long time. It's been difficult for the fans. I've been treated wonderfully by people here, gotten tremendous encouragement. But I also understand the other side of it. There's a lot of frustration."

Trembley and has staff did a pretty good job handling the teams younger talent this season. Matt Wieters turned a slow start into a very nice finish, hitting .308 in the second half with a total of 8 home runs in 91 games. Increased playing time for Felix Pie also appears to have had a positive impact on his career. Pie hit .290 since the All-Star break with a .346 on-base percentage, giving him a shot to win a spot in the outfield next season.

Orioles rookie Brian Matusz was not ready for the major leagues, but showed promise in eight appearances, posting a 5-2 record. Another rookie, Chris Tillman, did not have as much success and will likely head back to the minors for more seasoning.

The Orioles have some money to spend this offseason, making them potential players on the free agent market. Adding an infielder like Mark DeRosa or Akinori Iwamura could help their offense, while targeting a veteran pitcher to help anchor that rotation.

As for the manager spot, the Orioles would be smart to check the market, but they must realize that there are few, if any, managers that could have done much better than Trembley did with this Orioles squad.

Ten Lessons Jim Hendry Needs To Learn From The 2009 Season

Al — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 13:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Example of a player Jim Hendry should not sign to an overpriced, multiyear contract.

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I suppose this post could have waited till next week, but once again we are faced with more than 48 hours between games -- for the last time in 2009 -- and so I thought I'd start some discussion this morning with these things that I think were done poorly by Cubs GM Jim Hendry since the end of the 2008 season.

Hendry got a three-year contract extension (through the 2012 season) after last year's successful regular season, with the hope that 2009 would be even better. It didn't work out that way; Hendry had about as bad an offseason last year as any GM in recent memory, but with new ownership poised to take over, it isn't the right time to blow everything up and start over. Hendry will be given at least one more year to get things back on the track we thought the Cubs were on during their two-year run as NL Central champions in 2007 and 2008.

Some of the problems with the 2009 Cubs were not Hendry's fault and many of them were beyond his control. It's not Hendry's fault that Aramis Ramirez dislocated his shoulder four weeks into the season and missed a total of 75 games (through yesterday). A-Ram produced above his usual level (.906 OPS, compared to his career level of .847) and I think we all agree that the Cubs missed his production in the two months he was out from mid-May to mid-July, not to mention that he wasn't at full strength on his return. To have produced the way he did after the All-Star break -- without complaining -- is a credit to Ramirez's work ethic and ability. It's not Hendry's fault that Alfonso Soriano played most of the year injured, though he perhaps could have insisted harder that Soriano have arthroscopic surgery in June, and maybe he'd have been ready in September. It's not Hendry's fault that all the Opening Day rotation starters spent time on the disabled list, forcing the Cubs to have 21 starts made by guys (Sean Marshall, Kevin Hart, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Samardzija) whose performance can best be called "uneven". (The Cubs were 9-12 in those 21 games.)

Credit where credit is due: give Jim credit for recognizing that Randy Wells could help the team as a starter, though I don't think anyone could have guessed he'd be as good as he has been. Credit for giving Koyie Hill the backup catcher job; he's been very good in that role. And credit for getting John Grabow and Gorzelanny for, essentially, nothing; Grabow will likely be retained as a key part of the 2010 bullpen and Gorzelanny, though his performance has been up and down, does have talent and will be in the mix for the 2010 rotation.

With that in mind, below the fold you'll find ten ideas Hendry must internalize and go by as he builds a roster for 2010. (Not necessarily in priority order.)

1. Stop fixing "problems" that do not exist. I think this is one we can all agree on; the troubles with the 2009 Cubs began with the decision made at the organizational meetings last fall that "we're not lefthanded enough", a mantra particularly of Lou Piniella's, due to the Dodgers' RHP-centric pitching staff in the 2008 NLDS. The Cubs didn't lose that series because of a lack of LH batters, but since Lou (and the rest of the staff) thought that was the reason, they went out of their way to identify a "lefthanded, middle-of-the-order bat" that they could insert behind Derrek Lee and ahead of Ramirez. We are all familiar with the expensive disaster that produced so I won't rehash it here. I caution Hendry about this because they are about to do the same thing -- fix a nonexistent problem. "We need a speedy leadoff man", goes the managerial mantra. Well, no, Lou, you don't. A leadoff man's primary job is to get on base. You already have someone who can lead off and do that -- Kosuke Fukudome, who ranks 8th in the NL in walks, despite having almost 100 fewer plate appearances than the leader (Albert Pujols). The Cubs are 22-13 with Fukudome leading off this year (that's a 101-win pace for a full season). The last time Hendry went after this type of player, he traded three useful minor leaguers for Juan Pierre. Jim -- do not get sucked into this trap again.

2. Stop bidding against yourself for players. The first argument against this, you might think, is "Jason Marquis", but Marquis did what he was asked to do -- if the Cubs had kept him this year and he had produced the way he did in Colorado, the Cubs would have gotten fine 4th or 5th starter value for the $7 million a year average per year over the life of Marquis' contract. True, Hendry could have likely had Marquis for less, since no one else had expressed interest at the time. And you can't make the argument "Alfonso Soriano" about this, either, because Soriano had been offered six-plus years by the Phillies and seven by the Angels; the Cubs were determined at the time to make a statement in the free agent market. Soriano was the top free agent after 2006, and yes, the Cubs overpaid to get him. He may still be healthy and productive enough to be worth the deal, at least for the next 2-3 years. (Heaven help the Cubs in years 7 and 8, though.) No, what I'm talking about is paying $30 million for three years' worth of the iffy Milton Bradley when absolutely no other team was even after Bradley, much less offering three years. Or giving a two-year contract to Aaron Miles for any amount of money, when we now know there was at least one option (Andres Blanco) right in the Cubs' own farm system who could have done a better job for the league minimum. Advice to Jim: when you're thinking about doing this, don't. Just don't.

3. Stop giving out contracts that are longer than they need to be. Related to the last point, there was no need to give Marquis a three-year deal; two plus a mutual option would have likely done it, and then if the Cubs really did want to deal him last year, they could have arranged for the other team to pick up the option (if that team wanted him badly enough) or simply decline the option and let him go to free agency. This is particularly true in the case of Marquis; the return for him (Luis Vizcaino) was worthless, because the Cubs wound up dumping him and eating the contract. The same thing applies to the Miles and Bradley deals.

4. Stop trading for guys you think are good because you liked them five years ago, or are fond of their college coach. You don't have to guess who I'm talking about here; his name is Aaron Heilman. (And several years ago, his name was Michael Barrett.) It's great for a GM to be loyal to his players, and Hendry is someone a lot of MLB players want to play for, for this very reason. But any Mets fan could have told Hendry that Heilman had lost whatever command he had last year -- you should have heard the booing for Heilman when he came in at Citi Field, louder than I think I've ever heard for any returning former player -- and though Heilman has been better the last six weeks, he still was not worth losing Felix Pie (Pie, though he went to Baltimore, essentially was part of this deal because Garrett Olson, who was acquired for Pie, was part of the deal to the Mariners for Heilman). And really, Jim, isn't it time to stop the Notre Dame-Wrigley Express? As far as I can tell, there are four active major leaguers who went to ND: Heilman, Samardzija, Craig Counsell and Brad Lidge. All of those guys have issues. Enough already.

5. Stop handing out one-year renewal deals to players like candy. Chad Gaudin didn't throw very well and had a noted off-field incident in 2008. He didn't figure to play a major role in the 2009 rotation or bullpen, yet the Cubs signed him to a $2 million deal in December to avoid arbitration. Then he stunk it up in spring training, forcing the Cubs to simply release him and eat the contract; the Padres and Yankees later got replacement-level production for the league minimum. The Cubs could have gotten this sort of production out of Justin Berg or Esmailin Caridad, as it turned out. Gaudin should have been non-tendered in December.

6. Don't waste half a year's roster spot on a Rule 5 pick that your manager isn't going to use. Maybe David Patton would have pitched better if Lou Piniella had actually used him more than once every five games. We'll never know, obviously, but Lou essentially wasted a roster spot by relegating Patton to pitching in blowouts or in long extra-inning games. The Cubs could have used an extra bench player -- since Aaron Miles was useless -- because Lou was working with what was for all practical purposes an 11-man pitching staff. Lou and Jim deserve equal blame for this one -- and I hate to say it, but BCB poster BLou was right about this one. At this point, maybe it's best for the Cubs to stay out of the Rule 5 draft for a while.

7. Do more careful evaluations of your prospects and young players to maximize their value, whether it be in the major league lineup or in trades. It's clear now that the entire organization was split on Felix Pie's progress. Two years ago, his trade value would have been a lot higher than "Garrett Olson", and of course, now it's probably far higher than that again. Hendry sold on Pie at the lowest possible point, and he and Lou together dragged down a former top prospect's trade value (they did the same with Rich Hill, who could have been dealt after the 2007 season for a pretty good return, although few would have suggested it after Hill put together such a good season). This is another reason why it's silly to have played Bobby Scales in left field for even one game. Scales is a great story and maybe he's a 25th guy on someone's roster next year -- but his trade value is close to zero. Jake Fox, on the other hand, might either be a useful spare part for the 2010 Cubs or might have some trade value, but scouts aren't going to see it if he sits on the bench, Lou. This is where a GM has to have some input with his manager, not simply let the manager dictate the roster. In general, GM's shouldn't be making out lineups -- but Hendry, in this case, could have let Lou know that Fox should have been playing (and Fox should have also been playing 3B from the day after A-Ram went down, too).

8. Don't automatically think that you have to sign expensive free agents to get better. Last offseason, rather than sign Milton Bradley, the Cubs could have approached the White Sox for Jermaine Dye. Dye could have been available by trade; at the time it appeared the White Sox were trying to dump contracts. In fact, I wrote about this possibility last November. Dye didn't have a great year, but he was at least as good as Bradley without the baggage, and with Dye having a $12 million mutual option that will almost certainly be declined by the White Sox, he might be available for not too much money and years (see points 2 and 3). There may be other players available like this -- and, in fact, Hendry almost has to use this route to be able to move Bradley's contract. Magglio Ordonez is almost certain to be on the block, and though he had a terrible season, it's possible he could rebound and he's a lifetime .308/.389/.513 hitter in Wrigley Field (relatively small sample size of 90 PA). NOTE! Do not assume that because I mentioned Ordonez, he is the ONLY player I'd go after for such a deal. He's only one example. Another such player is Luke Scott, who would have looked pretty good in a Cubs uniform in 2009, and who is likely headed for a hefty raise in arbitration. Maybe the Cubs can do that if they can trade Bradley elsewhere. The point of all this to Jim Hendry is: get creative, the way you did when you pulled off the Nomar Garciaparra deal in 2004.

9. Get "good clubhouse guys". I mean, this should be a no-brainer. Any Cubs fan who's been around even for ten years knows that the 2003 Cubs, managed by a player's manager, Dusty Baker, succeeded in part because they had strong clubhouse leaders, Eric Karros and Damian Miller. Miller and Karros were sent packing before 2004, and the 2004 Cubs, despite having more talent and ability than the 2003 version, collapsed in the final week. The acrimony there was visible in public, with players calling the press box to bitch, along with some high-profile public trouble between the team and its broadcasters. I'm not saying those were the only reasons for the success or failure of those two teams, but they clearly did have some impact, particularly with a players' manager like Baker who pretty much lets the clubhouse run itself. If there are no strong player-leaders, such a clubhouse is an "inmates running the asylum" situation and the results are predictable. Similarly, the Cubs lost strong player-leaders Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood after 2008 and added one player who reportedly was not a good clubhouse presence. NOTE! I am NOT saying that the Cubs must go out and reacquire DeRosa and Wood. However, I am saying that I believe all successful teams have players like this in their clubhouse. Hendry needs to identify some such players who can both do this and be productive in the lineup, and acquire a couple of them. Without trying to ignite the stats debate again, I believe having guys like this does matter. (Of course, they should also be good players -- that goes without saying.)

10. Think outside the box. Jim Hendry did this when he managed to dump an unproductive Todd Hundley on the Dodgers and get back two useful players in Mark Grudzielanek and Karros, without whom the Cubs might not have won the division in 2003. He did it again in 2004 when he engineered the four-team trade that got Nomar to the North Side. He needs to be creative in his thinking again this year. Don't fall prey to the "this is what's wrong with us and we are going to go fix that no matter what it costs" thinking that helped ruin the 2009 Cubs. Be ahead of the curve; that's what helped the Cardinals do so well this year. Also, this could apply to the idea that Hendry might be able to find solutions just by looking in his own system for next year (say, Andres Blanco, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad) rather than scouring the waiver wire for someone else's discards (as he did this year with the Aaron's).

There may be more lessons than just these ten, but going by these simple precepts might help Jim Hendry build a 2010 Cubs team that will once again be the favorite to win the NL Central -- and this time, actually do it.