SB Nation - Koyie Hill

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

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Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

2009 Catcher Defense: Filling in the Holes (yet again)

devil_fingers — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:17:43 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

That Minnesota pretty boy might be in the playoffs, but he's go nuthin on One Man, Five Tools.

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Even if you aren't a FanGraphs junkie like myself and so many others, if you spend any time there looking at the WAR rankings in order to, say, evaluate who should be the 2009 MVP candidates, you've undoubtedly noticed (due to Joe Mauer's incredible season) that currently, they do not have a system in place to evaluate catcher fielding. Hey, no one's perfect, and knowing Mr. Appleman and his crew, they're probably waiting until they get a system they're happy with before they implement something.

I don't make any great claim to originality here, as you will see if you read on, but for those of you who want a rough idea of how different catchers "measure up" behind the plate for your MVP arguments or to settle the eternal "I wonder just how bad a guy can be at blocking pitches," question, here is a rough attempt to evaluate every catcher's defensive 2009.

Choosing a Methodology (With Qualifications)

Before I go any further, I should make clear that for the purposes of this post that I assume that it is well-established that the differences between catchers with regard to gamecalling (as expressed in, e.g., "catcher's ERA") are negligible, and thus such issues will not be discussed in this post. When I discuss catcher defense, like most others, I will be discussing preventing stolen bases, blocking pitches, etc.

One of the difficulties with evaluating catcher defense with regard to even these issues is that, much more than with other fielding positions, the catcher's performance is dependent on another player -- namely, the pitcher. No matter now strong or weak the catcher's arm is, he can't escape the reality that he depends on the pitcher's skill with regard to holding runners, quickness to the plate, etc. While the catcher's skill with regard to blocking pitches that are off the mark is clearly important, catching Tim Wakefield poses a unique challenge (just ask Josh Bard). And so on.

For these reasons, probably the best way of measuring catcher defense is Tom Tango's WOWY (With or Without You) method of defensive evaluation as detailed the 2008 Hardball Times Annual. You can read about the details in the links provided. Versions of WOWY for catchers have also been done by Brian Cartwright and Dan Turkenkopf. I would do it that way if I could. The main issue is that 1) it's pretty complicated, and beyond my present capabilities, and 2) it requires something like Retrosheet, which isn't available until after the World Series is over, so even if I could do it, I couldn't get the numbers during the season of even now...

In lieu of that, I'm going to be doing something much simpler, which, while not quite as good, is, I think, pretty decent. Just keep in mind the qualifications about not adjusting for particular pitchers made above.

The Method Used Here

For non-WOWY catcher defense, the basic idea is to 1) choose what events you're going to deal with, 2) determine each catchers performance with respect to league average, and 3) decide the run value of each event. Like I said, this post isn't that original: very similar methods are used/suggested by Rally and chuckb. I have most closely modeled my "catcher defense metric" on the method outlined by the Amazing Justin Inaz (now a regular at Beyond the Box Score). His weights for each event seem about right to me, and the general principles are sound. One modification I've made (I'll note the other as I go along) is in the denominator of some stats. when Justin did his version, he was using THT's catcher defense stats, which only recorded catcher innings. Since then, the new Baseball Reference has come out with more detailed individual catcher defense stats, including plate appearances. While the difference isn't huge, I feel that it's more accurate to use plate appearances (batters faced) as the denominator for things like pitch blocking and errors, since while every inning (other than some ninth [or later] innings) has 3 outs, the catcher has to be out there whether there are 3 or 10 batters during those three outs. Otherwise, I'm pretty close to Justin's method, and you can read there for more details.

Stolen Bases/Caught Stealing: First, we figure out the league rate for caught stealing. One cool thing about the new Baseball Reference is that it separates out the catcher caught stealings from the pitcher pickoffs, so we can exclude the pickoffs (not under the catcher's control) from the equation. So we total the CSctch +SB to get total stolen base attempts (SBA) and then to total CSctch/total SBA for the lgCS rate. We use the weight of .63 runs for each caught stealing, which represents the average linear weight of the caught stealing (.44 runs) plus the weight of the stolen base not achieved (.19 runs). The formula for runs above/below average for each catcher is thus (CS - (lgCSrate) * SBA) * 0.63.

Wild pitches/passed balls: The league rate is (WPlg + PBlg)/lgPA. The linear weight for each passed ball/wild pitch is 0.28 runs, which we make negative since the more WP/PBs a catcher has, the worse his defense is. The formula for each player is ((WP + PB) - (lgWPPBrate * PA)) * -0.28.

Errors: Justin accounts for two kinds of errors -- throwing errors and fielding errors. Baseball Reference also includes catching errors (on throws). I've assimilated catching errors to fielding errors. There are separate linear weights for throwing errors (-0.48) and fielding errors (-0.75). The method is the same as above. Get the league rate, then see how far over/under the player is. For throwing errors: (TE - (lgTErate * PA)) * -0.48. Fielding errors: (FE - (lgFErate * PA)) * -0.75.

Then you just add them all up to get the total runs above/below average. It's not perfect, and hopefully, there will be some improved options soon, but the results do seem to reflect reality. I thought about coming up with a "rate" version like UZR/150, but that isn't as simple as prorating for innings caught/PA -- one needs to normalize each sort of event separately, the chart is confusing enough as it is. For now, this is just a value measurement of what each player did this season. But before the big chart, let's take a look at some standout performances. I've rounded to one decimal place to tone down the illusion of great precision.

Standouts and "Standouts"

Caught Stealing: Gerald Laird of the Tigers dominates here at + 11 runs. The next closest player was Johjima at +6.5 runs, then Koyie Hill at +5.4. Now, Laird had a lot more time behind the plate to accomplish that, but one wonders why teams kept trying to run on him. At the bottom of the rankings for CS runs are fan favorite A.J. Pierzynski at -4.5 runs, Yorvit Torrealbea at -5.1 runs, and blowing away the field is defensive legend and Boston Red Sox stalwart Jason Varitek, at -10.7 runs.

Pitch blocking: As for the actual "catching" part of catching, the best in baseball this season was the Phillies' Carlos Ruiz, at +5.6 runs. Jason Varitek gains some of his cred back here at +5.1 runs (I wonder what it would be if he had to catch Wakefield). The Man, the Myth, the Legend, Matt Wieters may not have quite cemented his Hall of Fame credentials, but he can block a pitch decently at +3.9 runs. The players are grouped by their performance for separate teams, so I just noticed that one of my favorites, Gregg Zaun, was +2.9 for the Orioles, and +1.4 for the Rays, which puts him at +4.3, or the real number 3. Maybe Baltimore let him go to soon -- he definite brings his Z-Game when he's blocking pitches. At the bottom of the rankings, Jorge Posada, Josh Bard, and and Rob Johnson (why did he get so much playing time?) are all tied at -3.8, Russell Martin (?!) is at -5.1 (although he saw more PA than just about any other catcher on the list). And bringing up the rear... this is going to be a shock, prepare yourself... Miguel Olivo, at -7.8. Think about that -- it's only -0.28 runs per WP/PB. Sure, he's "only" -2.7 runs worse thatn Martin, but Martin saw almost 1400 more PA than Olivo this season. This shows we're on the right track, as Brian Cartwright's WOWY study done previous to this season showed Olivo to be historically terrible at blocking the plate. Another great job of scouting by Dayton Moore and the Process Servers.

Throwing errors: Given that there's so little variance with this stat, there's probably less of a repeatable "skill" when it comes to this stuff. In other words, if we were doing a projection, there would be much more regression for TE and FE runs than others. Still, we're measuring value here, so it goes on the record. Gerald Laird leads the pack again at +1.5 runs, followed closely by Yorvit Torrealbea at +1.3 the Kurt Suzuki and Henry Blanco at +1.2 each. At the bottom, we have Rod Barajas (otherwise a good defensive catcher) at -1.6, Miguel Montero at -1.7, and sadly, my boy John Buck at -3.0. He had some really, really horrible games at the beginning of the season. At least he can move two inches to his right or left.

Fielding errors: Jason Kendall justifies his major league status with a +1.0 here, as does Russell Martin. Rod Barajas shows he's Joe Mauer's equal, as they both have +0.8. Mike Napoli is -1.6, the traitorous Paul Bako is at -2.0, and Brian McCann, who's decent at everything else, has an anomalous -3.6.

The Best and The Worst, and Others of Note: One Man, Five Tools, Indeed: Gerald Laird blows away the field at +13.3 runs. The Tigers made a conscious effort to improve their defense in the offseason, and whatever else happened, with Laird they certainly succeeded. At 0.9 WAR player without defense, with it he's about 2.2. Kenji Johjima might be overpaid, but at +8.8 runs defensively, he seems a bit less ridiculous. Dave Ross and Ryan Hanigan come in at +7.0 runs. Yadier Molina was very good, if not quite as godlike as some would think, but +6.6 runs is nothing to sneeze at, and makes him about a 4 WAR player this season. Joe Mauer's +4.3 is good, but he's not the best in baseball or the league, and that certainly doesn't make him a better MVP candidate than Zack Greinke. Matt Wieters is +2.5, so he'll probably stick at catcher, at least for a while.

Victor Martinez isn't as bad as some would say, being only -2.2 betweeen Boston and Cleveland. Jeff Mathis is a "great" defensive backup at -2.0. Or how about Jose Molina at -1.1 backing up Jorge Posada at -5.9? Giants cleanup hitter Bengie Molina is at -3.4

As for the bottom ranks... Josh Bard is at -7.3, the human swing machine, Miguel Olivo, is at -8.8, and the Living Stereotype, Mike Napoli, is at -9.7. No wonder the Angels think Mathis is a good defender.

The Big Chart

That's it. Keep in mind (along with the limitations mentioned above) that current season performance is not the same thing as true talent. I hope you will find this handy when trying to get various catchers' "real" WAR, and let others know about it. Let the arguments begin!

Rank	Player	Tm	PA	CSRuns	WP/PBRns	TERns	FERns	TotalRuns
1	Gerald Laird	DET	4842	11.0	0.6	1.5	0.2	13.3
2	Kenji Johjima	SEA	2597	6.5	0.9	0.9	0.5	8.8
3	Dave Ross	ATL	1517	4.8	1.6	0.3	0.3	7.0
4	Ryan Hanigan	CIN	2913	4.7	0.7	1.0	0.5	7.0
5	Yadier Molina	STL	5045	3.2	2.6	0.7	0.2	6.6
6	Koyie Hill	CHC	2755	5.4	0.2	0.0	0.5	6.1
7	Henry Blanco	SDP	2278	2.9	1.2	1.2	0.4	5.7
8	Carlos Ruiz	PHI	3887	-1.5	5.6	0.6	0.7	5.4
9	Raul Chavez	TOR	1818	3.6	0.5	0.0	0.3	4.4
10	Joe Mauer	MIN	4153	0.5	2.4	0.7	0.8	4.3
11	Rod Barajas	TOR	4298	2.6	2.5	-1.6	0.8	4.2
12	Brian Schneider	NYM	1976	1.6	1.2	1.0	-0.4	3.5
13	Ramon Hernandez	CIN	2069	0.6	1.7	0.6	0.4	3.3
14	Francisco Cervelli	NYY	1024	2.0	0.8	0.0	0.2	3.1
15	Lou Marson	CLE	572	1.6	1.0	-0.2	0.1	2.5
16	Eliezer Alfonzo	SDP	1128	2.2	0.3	0.6	-0.5	2.5
17	Matt Wieters	BAL	3384	-1.1	3.9	-0.2	-0.1	2.5
18	Ronny Paulino	FLA	2609	2.1	-0.4	0.4	0.5	2.5
19	Landon Powell	OAK	1205	2.8	0.5	-0.3	-0.5	2.4
20	Taylor Teagarden	TEX	2180	3.1	0.9	-1.3	-0.3	2.4
21	Omir Santos	NYM	3092	-0.7	2.8	1.1	-0.9	2.4
22	Ivan Rodriguez	HOU	3327	1.4	0.4	-0.2	0.6	2.2
23	Chris Iannetta	COL	3362	0.1	1.9	-0.7	0.6	2.0
24	Gregg Zaun	BAL	1974	0.2	2.9	-0.9	-0.4	1.8
25	Humberto Quintero	HOU	1893	2.4	0.4	-1.4	0.4	1.7
26	Corky Miller	CIN	702	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.1	1.7
27	Ramon Castro	NYM	822	1.8	0.6	0.4	-1.3	1.4
28	Mike Rivera	MIL	1227	-0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	1.3
29	Lou Marson	PHI	245	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	1.2
30	Jason LaRue	STL	1139	0.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	1.2
31	Craig Tatum	CIN	749	0.5	0.6	-0.1	0.1	1.1
32	Chris Coste	PHI	925	-1.0	1.4	0.5	0.2	1.0
33	Dusty Ryan	DET	337	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	1.0
34	Kurt Suzuki	OAK	5222	-3.4	3.6	1.2	-0.5	0.9
35	Michel Hernandez	TBR	1140	0.1	1.1	0.1	-0.5	0.8
36	Geovany Soto	CHC	3607	2.2	-1.1	0.4	-0.8	0.7
37	Clint Sammons	ATL	135	1.0	-0.5	0.1	0.0	0.6
38	Jamie Burke	WSN	155	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.6
39	Brad Ausmus	LAD	1086	-0.1	-0.1	0.6	0.2	0.6
40	Ivan Rodriguez	TEX	961	1.4	0.1	-0.5	-0.6	0.5
41	Matt Pagnozzi	STL	40	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.5
42	Chris Gimenez	CLE	245	-0.1	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.5
43	Pablo Sandoval	SFG	113	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.4
44	Buster Posey	SFG	179	0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4
45	Dioner Navarro	TBR	4097	0.5	-0.3	0.2	0.0	0.4
46	J.R. Towles	HOU	538	-1.0	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.3
47	Wyatt Toregas	CLE	710	-0.5	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.3
48	Alex Avila	DET	709	0.4	-0.6	0.4	0.1	0.3
49	Steve Holm	SFG	101	0.5	-0.3	0.1	0.0	0.3
50	Edwin Bellorin	COL	69	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.2
51	Dusty Brown	BOS	49	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.2
52	Jose Lobaton	SDP	205	0.2	0.3	-0.4	0.0	0.1
53	Jason Jaramillo	PIT	2347	0.2	0.2	-0.7	0.4	0.1
54	Jake Fox	CHC	30	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
55	Carlos Corporan	MIL	6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
56	Ryan Budde	LAA	38	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
57	A.J. Ellis	LAD	119	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
58	Guillermo Rodriguez	BAL	72	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
59	Bobby Wilson	LAA	98	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	-0.1
60	David Freese	STL	10	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1
61	Kevin Cash	NYY	297	-0.3	0.0	0.2	0.1	-0.1
62	Chris Coste	HOU	628	-1.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	-0.2
63	Adam Moore	SEA	241	-0.1	-0.2	0.1	0.0	-0.2
64	Corky Miller	CHW	383	-0.7	0.2	0.2	0.1	-0.2
65	Gregg Zaun	TBR	928	-1.5	1.4	0.5	-0.6	-0.2
66	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	TEX	3169	-0.5	1.6	-1.3	-0.2	-0.3
67	Wil Nieves	WSN	2538	1.4	-0.4	-1.1	-0.3	-0.3
68	John Hester	ARI	255	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.3
69	Paul Hoover	PHI	55	-0.3	-0.1	0.0	0.0	-0.4
70	Guillermo Quiroz	SEA	161	-0.1	-0.4	0.1	0.0	-0.4
71	Dane Sardinha	DET	404	-0.5	-0.3	0.2	0.1	-0.5
72	Shawn Riggans	TBR	156	-0.3	0.1	-0.4	0.0	-0.5
73	Matt Treanor	DET	157	-0.6	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.6
74	Kevin Richardson	TEX	70	-0.3	-0.4	0.0	0.0	-0.6
75	Victor Martinez	CLE	1991	-2.7	0.7	1.0	0.4	-0.6
76	Josh Thole	NYM	551	-0.1	-0.5	-0.2	0.1	-0.6
77	Tyler Flowers	CHW	123	-0.3	-0.5	0.1	0.0	-0.7
78	Michael Barrett	TOR	174	-0.3	-0.6	0.1	0.0	-0.8
79	Luke Carlin	ARI	176	-0.9	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.8
80	Kyle Phillips	TOR	186	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4	0.0	-0.9
81	Jesus Flores	WSN	980	0.4	-1.2	0.5	-0.6	-0.9
82	Jose Molina	NYY	1533	-0.9	-0.9	0.3	0.3	-1.1
83	Jamie Burke	SEA	424	0.7	-0.8	0.2	-1.4	-1.3
84	Kelly Shoppach	CLE	3042	-0.7	-0.9	-0.4	0.6	-1.5
85	Victor Martinez	BOS	1173	-1.5	1.0	-1.3	0.2	-1.6
86	Ramon Castro	CHW	975	-1.8	1.0	-0.9	0.2	-1.6
87	Rob Johnson	SEA	2927	2.4	-3.8	0.5	-1.0	-1.8
88	Ryan Doumit	PIT	2754	-1.0	0.5	-0.5	-1.0	-2.0
89	Chad Moeller	BAL	1116	-3.1	0.2	0.6	0.2	-2.1
90	Jeff Mathis	LAA	2902	0.8	-1.0	-0.9	-1.0	-2.1
91	Paul Phillips	COL	502	-1.8	-0.3	-0.2	0.1	-2.3
92	Mike Redmond	MIN	1513	-4.1	0.5	0.8	0.3	-2.5
93	Robinzon Diaz	PIT	1268	-1.0	-1.6	-0.3	0.2	-2.6
94	Yorvit Torrealba	COL	2438	-5.1	0.5	1.3	0.5	-2.9
95	Brayan Pena	KCR	1012	-0.5	-3.1	0.5	0.2	-2.9
96	Brian McCann	ATL	4763	-0.7	1.8	-0.4	-3.6	-3.0
97	Chris Snyder	ARI	1962	-1.3	-3.0	1.0	0.4	-3.0
98	Eli Whiteside	SFG	1348	1.0	-2.2	-0.7	-1.2	-3.2
99	John Baker	FLA	3919	-2.6	-0.5	-0.9	0.7	-3.2
100	Paul Bako	PHI	1328	-0.7	-0.3	-0.3	-2.0	-3.3
101	Russell Martin	LAD	5205	1.5	-5.1	-0.7	1.0	-3.3
102	Bengie Molina	SFG	4582	-1.0	-2.6	0.9	-0.6	-3.4
103	Jason Varitek	BOS	4133	-10.7	5.1	0.7	0.8	-4.1
104	George Kottaras	BOS	1166	-1.8	-3.0	0.1	0.2	-4.4
105	Jason Kendall	MIL	5296	-2.9	-1.5	-1.1	1.0	-4.5
106	John Buck	KCR	1693	-2.0	-0.1	-3.0	0.3	-4.8
107	A.J. Pierzynski	CHW	4927	-4.5	-0.8	1.1	-0.6	-4.8
108	Jose Morales	MIN	812	-2.1	-1.7	-0.1	-1.3	-5.2
109	Jorge Posada	NYY	3653	-0.8	-3.8	-0.5	-0.8	-5.9
110	Miguel Montero	ARI	4094	-1.4	-3.4	-1.7	0.0	-6.5
111	Nick Hundley	SDP	2877	-3.7	-2.0	-0.9	-0.2	-6.8
112	Josh Bard	WSN	2902	-2.8	-3.8	-0.4	-0.2	-7.3
113	Miguel Olivo	KCR	3821	0.7	-7.8	-0.9	-0.8	-8.8
114	Mike Napoli	LAA	3468	-4.3	-3.1	-0.6	-1.6	-9.7

Ten Lessons Jim Hendry Needs To Learn From The 2009 Season

Al — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 13:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Example of a player Jim Hendry should not sign to an overpriced, multiyear contract.

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I suppose this post could have waited till next week, but once again we are faced with more than 48 hours between games -- for the last time in 2009 -- and so I thought I'd start some discussion this morning with these things that I think were done poorly by Cubs GM Jim Hendry since the end of the 2008 season.

Hendry got a three-year contract extension (through the 2012 season) after last year's successful regular season, with the hope that 2009 would be even better. It didn't work out that way; Hendry had about as bad an offseason last year as any GM in recent memory, but with new ownership poised to take over, it isn't the right time to blow everything up and start over. Hendry will be given at least one more year to get things back on the track we thought the Cubs were on during their two-year run as NL Central champions in 2007 and 2008.

Some of the problems with the 2009 Cubs were not Hendry's fault and many of them were beyond his control. It's not Hendry's fault that Aramis Ramirez dislocated his shoulder four weeks into the season and missed a total of 75 games (through yesterday). A-Ram produced above his usual level (.906 OPS, compared to his career level of .847) and I think we all agree that the Cubs missed his production in the two months he was out from mid-May to mid-July, not to mention that he wasn't at full strength on his return. To have produced the way he did after the All-Star break -- without complaining -- is a credit to Ramirez's work ethic and ability. It's not Hendry's fault that Alfonso Soriano played most of the year injured, though he perhaps could have insisted harder that Soriano have arthroscopic surgery in June, and maybe he'd have been ready in September. It's not Hendry's fault that all the Opening Day rotation starters spent time on the disabled list, forcing the Cubs to have 21 starts made by guys (Sean Marshall, Kevin Hart, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Samardzija) whose performance can best be called "uneven". (The Cubs were 9-12 in those 21 games.)

Credit where credit is due: give Jim credit for recognizing that Randy Wells could help the team as a starter, though I don't think anyone could have guessed he'd be as good as he has been. Credit for giving Koyie Hill the backup catcher job; he's been very good in that role. And credit for getting John Grabow and Gorzelanny for, essentially, nothing; Grabow will likely be retained as a key part of the 2010 bullpen and Gorzelanny, though his performance has been up and down, does have talent and will be in the mix for the 2010 rotation.

With that in mind, below the fold you'll find ten ideas Hendry must internalize and go by as he builds a roster for 2010. (Not necessarily in priority order.)

1. Stop fixing "problems" that do not exist. I think this is one we can all agree on; the troubles with the 2009 Cubs began with the decision made at the organizational meetings last fall that "we're not lefthanded enough", a mantra particularly of Lou Piniella's, due to the Dodgers' RHP-centric pitching staff in the 2008 NLDS. The Cubs didn't lose that series because of a lack of LH batters, but since Lou (and the rest of the staff) thought that was the reason, they went out of their way to identify a "lefthanded, middle-of-the-order bat" that they could insert behind Derrek Lee and ahead of Ramirez. We are all familiar with the expensive disaster that produced so I won't rehash it here. I caution Hendry about this because they are about to do the same thing -- fix a nonexistent problem. "We need a speedy leadoff man", goes the managerial mantra. Well, no, Lou, you don't. A leadoff man's primary job is to get on base. You already have someone who can lead off and do that -- Kosuke Fukudome, who ranks 8th in the NL in walks, despite having almost 100 fewer plate appearances than the leader (Albert Pujols). The Cubs are 22-13 with Fukudome leading off this year (that's a 101-win pace for a full season). The last time Hendry went after this type of player, he traded three useful minor leaguers for Juan Pierre. Jim -- do not get sucked into this trap again.

2. Stop bidding against yourself for players. The first argument against this, you might think, is "Jason Marquis", but Marquis did what he was asked to do -- if the Cubs had kept him this year and he had produced the way he did in Colorado, the Cubs would have gotten fine 4th or 5th starter value for the $7 million a year average per year over the life of Marquis' contract. True, Hendry could have likely had Marquis for less, since no one else had expressed interest at the time. And you can't make the argument "Alfonso Soriano" about this, either, because Soriano had been offered six-plus years by the Phillies and seven by the Angels; the Cubs were determined at the time to make a statement in the free agent market. Soriano was the top free agent after 2006, and yes, the Cubs overpaid to get him. He may still be healthy and productive enough to be worth the deal, at least for the next 2-3 years. (Heaven help the Cubs in years 7 and 8, though.) No, what I'm talking about is paying $30 million for three years' worth of the iffy Milton Bradley when absolutely no other team was even after Bradley, much less offering three years. Or giving a two-year contract to Aaron Miles for any amount of money, when we now know there was at least one option (Andres Blanco) right in the Cubs' own farm system who could have done a better job for the league minimum. Advice to Jim: when you're thinking about doing this, don't. Just don't.

3. Stop giving out contracts that are longer than they need to be. Related to the last point, there was no need to give Marquis a three-year deal; two plus a mutual option would have likely done it, and then if the Cubs really did want to deal him last year, they could have arranged for the other team to pick up the option (if that team wanted him badly enough) or simply decline the option and let him go to free agency. This is particularly true in the case of Marquis; the return for him (Luis Vizcaino) was worthless, because the Cubs wound up dumping him and eating the contract. The same thing applies to the Miles and Bradley deals.

4. Stop trading for guys you think are good because you liked them five years ago, or are fond of their college coach. You don't have to guess who I'm talking about here; his name is Aaron Heilman. (And several years ago, his name was Michael Barrett.) It's great for a GM to be loyal to his players, and Hendry is someone a lot of MLB players want to play for, for this very reason. But any Mets fan could have told Hendry that Heilman had lost whatever command he had last year -- you should have heard the booing for Heilman when he came in at Citi Field, louder than I think I've ever heard for any returning former player -- and though Heilman has been better the last six weeks, he still was not worth losing Felix Pie (Pie, though he went to Baltimore, essentially was part of this deal because Garrett Olson, who was acquired for Pie, was part of the deal to the Mariners for Heilman). And really, Jim, isn't it time to stop the Notre Dame-Wrigley Express? As far as I can tell, there are four active major leaguers who went to ND: Heilman, Samardzija, Craig Counsell and Brad Lidge. All of those guys have issues. Enough already.

5. Stop handing out one-year renewal deals to players like candy. Chad Gaudin didn't throw very well and had a noted off-field incident in 2008. He didn't figure to play a major role in the 2009 rotation or bullpen, yet the Cubs signed him to a $2 million deal in December to avoid arbitration. Then he stunk it up in spring training, forcing the Cubs to simply release him and eat the contract; the Padres and Yankees later got replacement-level production for the league minimum. The Cubs could have gotten this sort of production out of Justin Berg or Esmailin Caridad, as it turned out. Gaudin should have been non-tendered in December.

6. Don't waste half a year's roster spot on a Rule 5 pick that your manager isn't going to use. Maybe David Patton would have pitched better if Lou Piniella had actually used him more than once every five games. We'll never know, obviously, but Lou essentially wasted a roster spot by relegating Patton to pitching in blowouts or in long extra-inning games. The Cubs could have used an extra bench player -- since Aaron Miles was useless -- because Lou was working with what was for all practical purposes an 11-man pitching staff. Lou and Jim deserve equal blame for this one -- and I hate to say it, but BCB poster BLou was right about this one. At this point, maybe it's best for the Cubs to stay out of the Rule 5 draft for a while.

7. Do more careful evaluations of your prospects and young players to maximize their value, whether it be in the major league lineup or in trades. It's clear now that the entire organization was split on Felix Pie's progress. Two years ago, his trade value would have been a lot higher than "Garrett Olson", and of course, now it's probably far higher than that again. Hendry sold on Pie at the lowest possible point, and he and Lou together dragged down a former top prospect's trade value (they did the same with Rich Hill, who could have been dealt after the 2007 season for a pretty good return, although few would have suggested it after Hill put together such a good season). This is another reason why it's silly to have played Bobby Scales in left field for even one game. Scales is a great story and maybe he's a 25th guy on someone's roster next year -- but his trade value is close to zero. Jake Fox, on the other hand, might either be a useful spare part for the 2010 Cubs or might have some trade value, but scouts aren't going to see it if he sits on the bench, Lou. This is where a GM has to have some input with his manager, not simply let the manager dictate the roster. In general, GM's shouldn't be making out lineups -- but Hendry, in this case, could have let Lou know that Fox should have been playing (and Fox should have also been playing 3B from the day after A-Ram went down, too).

8. Don't automatically think that you have to sign expensive free agents to get better. Last offseason, rather than sign Milton Bradley, the Cubs could have approached the White Sox for Jermaine Dye. Dye could have been available by trade; at the time it appeared the White Sox were trying to dump contracts. In fact, I wrote about this possibility last November. Dye didn't have a great year, but he was at least as good as Bradley without the baggage, and with Dye having a $12 million mutual option that will almost certainly be declined by the White Sox, he might be available for not too much money and years (see points 2 and 3). There may be other players available like this -- and, in fact, Hendry almost has to use this route to be able to move Bradley's contract. Magglio Ordonez is almost certain to be on the block, and though he had a terrible season, it's possible he could rebound and he's a lifetime .308/.389/.513 hitter in Wrigley Field (relatively small sample size of 90 PA). NOTE! Do not assume that because I mentioned Ordonez, he is the ONLY player I'd go after for such a deal. He's only one example. Another such player is Luke Scott, who would have looked pretty good in a Cubs uniform in 2009, and who is likely headed for a hefty raise in arbitration. Maybe the Cubs can do that if they can trade Bradley elsewhere. The point of all this to Jim Hendry is: get creative, the way you did when you pulled off the Nomar Garciaparra deal in 2004.

9. Get "good clubhouse guys". I mean, this should be a no-brainer. Any Cubs fan who's been around even for ten years knows that the 2003 Cubs, managed by a player's manager, Dusty Baker, succeeded in part because they had strong clubhouse leaders, Eric Karros and Damian Miller. Miller and Karros were sent packing before 2004, and the 2004 Cubs, despite having more talent and ability than the 2003 version, collapsed in the final week. The acrimony there was visible in public, with players calling the press box to bitch, along with some high-profile public trouble between the team and its broadcasters. I'm not saying those were the only reasons for the success or failure of those two teams, but they clearly did have some impact, particularly with a players' manager like Baker who pretty much lets the clubhouse run itself. If there are no strong player-leaders, such a clubhouse is an "inmates running the asylum" situation and the results are predictable. Similarly, the Cubs lost strong player-leaders Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood after 2008 and added one player who reportedly was not a good clubhouse presence. NOTE! I am NOT saying that the Cubs must go out and reacquire DeRosa and Wood. However, I am saying that I believe all successful teams have players like this in their clubhouse. Hendry needs to identify some such players who can both do this and be productive in the lineup, and acquire a couple of them. Without trying to ignite the stats debate again, I believe having guys like this does matter. (Of course, they should also be good players -- that goes without saying.)

10. Think outside the box. Jim Hendry did this when he managed to dump an unproductive Todd Hundley on the Dodgers and get back two useful players in Mark Grudzielanek and Karros, without whom the Cubs might not have won the division in 2003. He did it again in 2004 when he engineered the four-team trade that got Nomar to the North Side. He needs to be creative in his thinking again this year. Don't fall prey to the "this is what's wrong with us and we are going to go fix that no matter what it costs" thinking that helped ruin the 2009 Cubs. Be ahead of the curve; that's what helped the Cardinals do so well this year. Also, this could apply to the idea that Hendry might be able to find solutions just by looking in his own system for next year (say, Andres Blanco, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad) rather than scouring the waiver wire for someone else's discards (as he did this year with the Aaron's).

There may be more lessons than just these ten, but going by these simple precepts might help Jim Hendry build a 2010 Cubs team that will once again be the favorite to win the NL Central -- and this time, actually do it.

7 Back, 17 To Go: Cubs Nearly Done For Year After 7-4 Loss To Brewers

Al — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 22:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

The Cubs and Brewers honor Medal of Honor recipients before Thursday's game.

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And after all was said and done, it wasn't the grand slam by Jody Gerut that did the Cubs in, although that did give the Brewers a lead today that they never relinquished.

No, it was the little things, and Randy Wells acknowleged so in his postgame remarks: giving up a two-out hit to a pitcher who came into the game with a .100 (3-for-30) season batting average. That hit prolonged an inning that should have been over; Wells had retired the first two batters in the fourth inning easily, and seemed to have settled down after a shaky first inning. But then the #8 hitter, Alcides Escobar, walked; Bush singled; Wells, rattled, walked Felipe Lopez, and then Gerut hit the slam, only the second of his career.

It was a thrill for Gerut, I suppose; he was the 1995 Illinois High School Player of the Year for Willowbrook High, and he's struggled this year, coming into the game hitting only .215. For Wells, it was the most walks (five) he had given up in any one game this season (one intentional), and he also admitted in the postgame news conference that he had stopped doing what had made him successful earlier, attacking the zone, and was trying to nibble. Why pitchers do this, I have no idea; if something's working for you, why change it?

The Cubs lost to the Brewers 7-4, splitting a series they should have won and realistically needed to sweep to have any chance to get back into the thick of postseason contention. Now, nine games out of first place and seven games back in the wild-card race, they are in 2007 Phillies territory (the Phils made up 7.5 games in 17, but they had no one else in front of them), and I can see the numbers as well as anyone else can. It'd take a major miracle now.

The Cubs did do their best to get back into the game. Micah Hoffpauir pinch-hit for Wells in the bottom of the fourth and doubled in a pair of runs, making it 5-4 and at least giving the Cubs a shot at it, and Sean Marshall and Aaron Heilman threw scoreless innings. But the Cubs couldn't do more than two more baserunners the rest of the game, on a single by Milton Bradley and a walk to Mike Fontenot in the sixth. That put two runners on with one out, but Koyie Hill struck out and Aramis Ramirez, pinch-hitting on a day he was otherwise off, hit a ball that might have gone out had the wind not been blowing in strongly from right field.

You all know how I feel about Milton Bradley. But today really was the last straw for me. Bradley took himself out of the game after that sixth-inning single, claiming knee problems. He didn't seem to have any trouble in the field or any trouble running to first base. Maybe it's legitimate, but honestly, isn't this enough of this act? I've heard the same stories about Bradley when he was with Oakland -- taking himself out of games on a moment's notice on the flimsiest of excuses.

Enough. Bradley was a bad fit in Chicago from the beginning; his production, after taking a bit of an upswing in August, has collapsed again in September (.196/.226/.275 with zero walks in 53 plate appearances). Enough. If I were Lou, I'd bench him for the rest of the season. He's got to be traded -- to anyone who will take him. Go ahead, flame away, but that's how I feel. I'll talk after the season is over about how I think the Cubs should go about getting that LH bat they were looking for last offseason -- this wasn't the right way to do it.

Amusing: watching Prince Fielder pound around the bases for a triple after his ball got beyond Bradley to the wall in the fifth. It was, believe it or not, his third triple of the season. He may seem overweight and out of shape, but Fielder is an excellent athlete who runs the bases well. However, the Cubs might have to have Roger Bossard redo the field after the season due to that run. Fielder also was held RBI-less in the series; he's currently tied with current Houston manager Cecil Cooper for the Brewers' season record with 126 RBI. The Brewers are playing the Astros this weekend, so Cooper can see his record broken in person.

It's been a frustrating season; with four of the seven games remaining to be played in October, this might have been the last bit of nice summer-like weather we'll have for baseball on the north side of Chicago in 2009. It may not mean anything, but I do hope the Cubs can at least win the series in St. Louis this weekend. The Cubs are 5-8 vs. the Cardinals this year; if they can somehow sweep (yeah, I know, a pipedream), they'd even it up. That's a goal they can shoot for.

Lilly Outstanding; Lee Homers In 5-2 Cubs Win Over Reds

Al — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 22:19:44 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

Ted Lilly throws yet another terrific game at Wrigley.

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Say what you want about Jim Hendry's bad offseason in 2008-09 -- and I will have more when the season is over -- you have to acknowledge that his signing of Theodore Roosevelt Lilly was not only one of the better free-agent signings in recent Cub history, but is probably one of the best free-agent signings by anyone in the last few years.

Ted Lilly had another outstanding outing this afternoon, throwing six scoreless innings in a 5-2 Cubs win over the Reds. True, he threw a huge number of pitches (119 -- we were joking in the bleachers today that the only reason Dusty Baker left Homer Bailey in so long is that he was upset that Lou had let his starter go longer than Dusty did. Baker failed -- Bailey threw "only" 115 pitches), especially because he had several long counts in the early innings when he was piling up six of his seven strikeouts. His K of Ryan Hanigan with a runner on second in the sixth, on that 119th pitch, gave him a Wrigley Field ERA of 1.60 this season (in 84.1 innings), and now an 8-1 record at home. His season ERA of 3.05 now ranks 11th in the National League, just behind his teammate Randy Wells (2.96).

So give credit to Hendry for the Lilly signing; today's win was his 44th as a Cub against 25 losses, and his control this year has also been outstanding. He walked two today, but one was intentional.

While Ted was mowing down Reds, the Cubs were fashioning a nice 3-0 lead with hits by both mainstays in the lineup (Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez) and those who are auditioning for next year (RBI from Koyie Hill and Andres Blanco).

I was especially pleased to see Blanco in the starting lineup today. Ryan Theriot has hit .211/.250/.211 since August 15 (in 111 plate appearances) and clearly, for the third year in a row, Theriot has worn down over the long season. Had the Cubs realized that Blanco, rather than Aaron Miles, should have been the backup from day one, Theriot could have had regular days off during the season and the Cubs would have had better defense and only a little dropoff in offense. Blanco has been a pleasant surprise and, now hitting .250, should be the front-runner for the #1 infield backup slot next season -- if not to compete for a starting job.

Koyie Hill is another of only a handful of last year's offseason Hendry moves that worked. Hill has been great behind the plate and handling the pitching staff, and, hitting .241, is one of the better backup catchers in the major leagues this season. He's certainly earned the job again for 2010. Maybe it's not completely his doing, but the Cubs are 39-23 in games Hill has started behind the plate in 2009.

So while the chances of postseason play this year are still minuscule -- although if the Padres complete their current 6-3 lead over the Rockies, the Cubs will creep to within 7.5 games of the wild-card lead -- at least there are some things that give us hope for 2010. Also today, on yet another beautiful, sun-kissed summer afternoon, Derrek Lee hit his 32nd HR and is now only three RBI short of his second 100-RBI season. D-Lee's average is at a season-high .302 and he has hit 21 of his HR since July 1 -- which leads the National League in HR since that date.

BCB reader heine41 and his girlfriend stopped by to say hi today. Nice to meet you, and I told him that if the Cubs won that she'd have to come back every day. Sounded good, but it's kind of a long ride for them (from Peoria), so we'll carry on without them tomorrow night.

The Cubs are having a good September at 8-4, and it's always fun to beat the Brewers, who come into Wrigley for a four-game series beginning tomorrow. With 11 home games remaining, the Cubs are 42-28 in the Friendly Confines. Last year they were 55-26; they won't get there this season but still have a shot at 50 wins at home. In the 109 seasons since 1900, Cub teams have won 50 or more at home only 18 times. That's a goal to shoot for. Keep up the good work.

Winning Streak At Four: Cubs Defeat Reds 6-4 Despite Harden's Struggles

Al — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 21:53:04 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

Throw strikes, please. And the red caps? Um, nope.

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Summer arrived at Wrigley Field today, a couple of months late. Didn't anyone tell the weather folks that this is the weather we should have had in July?

Rich Harden apparently wanted to make summer last forever, as he threw an alarming 103 pitches in four innings before Lou had seen enough and sent Aaron Miles up to bat for him in the last of the fourth. Miles actually saw four pitches before grounding to second. (Harden probably could have done that, and then been lifted anyway.) It got so bad with Harden's lack of control that Lou actually had David Patton warming up in the first inning, despite the fact that Harden hadn't allowed a hit. Instead, Harden had walked the bases loaded and thrown 39 pitches to get the first three outs.

Thankfully, the Cubs had enough offense off Justin Lehr, who had shut them out in Cincinnati in August. Aramis Ramirez drove in three runs -- he now has 54 RBI, and with two more will move into second place on the 2009 Cub team list behind Derrek Lee. Think about that. 56 RBI is 2nd on the team, and Ramirez has about half the at-bats of the people he's passing. That's how difficult offense has been to come by at times for this team. Geovany Soto homered -- his first since August 10 -- and the Cubs hung on for a 6-4 win. Their playoff hopes with 23 games remaining and an 8.5 game deficit may be very slim (0.7% by Baseball Prospectus' estimate), but all you can do is go out there every day and win your game and see what happens.

Lou apparently decided to use the middle innings, with the Cubs leading 4-1 after Soto's homer, to audition pitchers for next year's bullpen. Perhaps we can cross Jeff Stevens off the list. Stevens gave up two singles and a three-run homer to Jonny Gomes, tying the game. For that performance, Stevens got his first major league win, because he was the pitcher of record when Kosuke Fukudome walked for the second time in the game, went to second on a wild pitch, and scored on Ramirez's single. This is proof positive that wins for relief pitchers are virtually meaningless. The official scorer does have the discretion to award the victory to someone other than the pitcher of record if he pitches "briefly and ineffectively", as the official rules state. Today was a perfect example of a game where that could have been the case. Aaron Heilman -- who's actually thrown better lately -- came in after Stevens and threw two shutdown innings, striking out the side in the seventh and throwing 22 strikes in his 34 pitches. Heilman deserved the win.

Also auditioning for next year was Esmailin Caridad, who has a good arm and also threw a good scoreless inning. He needs to develop a breaking pitch; perhaps the Cubs will send him to winter ball so he can work on one. Caridad, who will be 26 next month, could be an important part of the 2010 bullpen.

Carlos Marmol will definitely be the anchor of that pen -- it appears he has finally settled down now that he's been officially named closer. Despite a walk and single (which wouldn't have been a single if Andres Blanco had been inserted for defense in the 9th, as Koyie Hill was), Marmol stayed within himself and finished off the Reds for his 12th save.

As I said -- the chances are slim. But the Cubs are setting themselves up to have one of the better Septembers in recent memory; they're 7-3 and riding a four-game winning streak. Let's keep riding it. Keep the faith and go Cubs.

Ricketts, Shark And (What Else?) Peavy News: Cubs vs. Astros Preview, Wednesday 9/2, 1:20 CT

Al — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 16:30:14 -0000

by Nam Y Huh - AP

Write your own caption. (And keep it clean.)

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Tom Ricketts was at last night's game. He shook hands with Lou and Koyie Hill, and I'm glad he got to see a solidly played win. Let there be many more of these. (Maybe we should get Ricketts to come to every game, if he isn't planning on doing that already.)

So while we prepare for what (we hope) is a series win over the Astros, here are a few baseball notes to pore over this morning:

If you think the Cubs are having a tough go at things, it can always be worse elswehere. Check out several other teams that have had losing years for a long time. And what Bill James has to say about why that happens.
From USA Today: Paul White on major leaguers with college degrees -- some with majors you might not have guessed.
Yet another Jeff-Samardzija-is-the-future article.
Gee, what a surprise: Jake Peavy might get shut down for the year. NOW are you glad the Cubs didn't trade the farm for him? And, Carlos Torres will start Thursday's game at Wrigley for the White Sox.
Some photos and a tour of Target Field, the Twins' new roofless home that will open next spring. It says here that the Twins are giving up a huge home-field advantage and will likely be playing in adverse weather conditions for at least April, and part of May.
37 years ago today, the Cubs' Milt Pappas threw a no-hitter, but came within one pitch of a perfect game. And he still can't stand the call plate umpire Bruce Froemming made that he felt robbed him of the perfecto.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Ted Lilly Cubs	vs.	Felipe Paulino Astros

9-8	W-L	2-6
3.35	ERA	6.96
118	SO	58
29	BB	22
21	HR	13
vs. Hou	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ted Lilly	9-8	22	22	0	0	0	0	142.1	129	58	53	21	29	118	3.35	1.11

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Felipe Paulino	2-6	17	11	0	0	0	1	64.2	89	55	50	13	22	58	6.96	1.72

Felipe Paulino started the year in Houston's rotation and made three starts, all of which were decent. Then, for some reason, Cecil Cooper sent him to the bullpen. After three relief appearances -- one of which was a horrendous 0.2 inning, 4 ER outing against the Cubs on May 7, which included a HR by Alfonso Soriano -- he was back in the rotation. That turned out, um, badly -- seven starts, 7.59 ERA. Back in the pen he went; this is his first start since August 4.

Ted Lilly has won nine games this year. Three of them are vs. the Astros; he gave up four homers to them in Houston in his first start of the year on April 8, but has allowed only 17 HR in his 21 other starts, and overall this year is 3-0, 3.06 vs. Houston. This will be his first start vs. the Astros in Chicago in 2009; the three others were all in Houston. Astros hitters are hitting .195 (43-for-221) vs. Ted.

The Cubs and Astros are cable-only today, CSN Chicago and FSN Houston. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Astros site The Crawfish Boxes.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 2:15 pm, 3:15 pm and 4 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

September Begins With Win: Bradley, Wells Lead Cubs To 4-1 Triumph

Al — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 12:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

One of the brightest spots in 2009 has been Randy Wells' performance.

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Since I have been critical of Milton Bradley many times on this site, let me praise him this morning.

Bradley homered and singled and raised his batting average (.269) and OPS (.823) to season highs and helped lead the Cubs to a 4-1 win over the Astros on another chilly night at Wrigley Field. The announced crowd of 36,332 probably included 10,000 no-shows, and the season average dipped under 40,000 for the first time in a couple of months (now 39,982, if the Cubs maintain that average for the 16 remaining home games -- and they probably won't -- they'll draw about 100,000 fewer than they did in 2008).

Anyway, nice work, Milton -- and he continues his hot hitting, now 14-for-30 (.467) with three homers since the Cubs came home on August 25. He's also drawn five walks and scored 11 runs in the eight games so far on this homestand. Keep up the good work!

The other good story from last night's game belongs to Randy Wells, and in fact, that's the feel-good story for the entire season. I don't think a single one of us would have predicted, back in March, that Wells would start 21 games for the major league Cubs in 2009, much less win 10, rank eighth in the NL in ERA (2.90), or become a solid Rookie of the Year candidate (he likely won't win, as J.A. Happ of the Phillies has been better). Wells threw 6.2 solid innings, scattering seven hits -- all singles -- and allowed only an unearned run which wouldn't have scored at all if Jeff Baker had managed to hang on to Koyie Hill's throw trying to catch Kaz Matsui stealing in the seventh inning. It's too bad he can't face the Astros again, because he's thrown 20.2 innings against them, given them 17 hits -- all singles -- and just the one unearned run from last night.

Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano scored the other two runs last night; Lee should have had two doubles, but the first of the two times he reached base -- on a fly ball that Hunter Pence had go in and out of his glove -- was initially ruled a double, then changed to an error.

And, credit also to the bullpen, which, after starting the year very shaky, has suddenly allowed nothing at all the last few days. John Grabow, Kevin Gregg and Carlos Marmol allowed no runs and just a single walk in 2.1 innings. Marmol, in particular, looked like the lights-out Marmol of old. His mechanics seemed far better, and after a leadoff single to Pence, he struck out the side to end the game.

With 32 games remaining in the season, the Cubs' task to overtake four teams for the wild card is still daunting. They still trail the Rockies by six (five in the loss column), but are creeping up on moving ahead of one of those teams, the Marlins; with Florida's loss to the Braves last night, the Cubs are only one game behind the Marlins (and even with them in the loss column).

Just keep winning. That's all we can ask. Today's game preview will post at 11:30 am CDT.

Bullpen Shines, But Too Late; Cubs' Offense MIA In 4-1 Loss To Mets

Al — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 21:37:34 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Not a good day for this guy.

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The good news for the Cubs today is that their much-maligned bullpen threw 5.2 innings of one-hit, no-walk, five-strikeout ball.

The bad news is all of that came after Carlos Zambrano -- who had "mechanical" problems again according to Lou in his postgame news conference -- gave up eleven Mets hits while recording only ten outs with 75 pitches. Some of the hits were ground balls that just found holes, but that was enough for a rather dull 4-1 loss to the Mets on one of the only afternoons all summer when there were no clouds in the sky, despite the game-time temperature being reported at an April-like 57 degrees. (The upper deck facing the wind wasn't nearly full at game time and emptied out early.)

Z also had velocity problems as he only threw a handful of pitches over 90 MPH as measured by the Wrigley Field pitch speed indicator. Now, that may not be 100% accurate, although I have found it to be pretty close in the several years since it was installed at the top of the upper deck. But if he's got both mechanical trouble and he's throwing only 89 MPH fastballs, is that an indicator that he's still hurt?

The Cubs had plenty of chances to score runs today, too; they had a run within the first four batters of the game and could have broken the game open against Nelson Figueroa. Now think about that name again -- Nelson Figueroa, a 35-year-old journeyman who came into the game with a 5.40 ERA and zero career wins vs. the Cubs. And he struck out nine in the first four innings. What's up with that?

The one occasion on which the Cubs could have come back into the game was with two out in the fifth inning, after a Ryan Theriot single and Milton Bradley being hit by a pitch. Derrek Lee ran the count to 3-0 and it appeared Figueroa was rattled. Instead of taking 3-0 and maybe getting on base, or even taking a 3-1 strike, forcing Figueroa to throw more pitches, Lee flied to right to end the inning. There were quite a number of instances of players swinging at first pitches, including Aaron Miles' latest awful pinch-hit AB (a lazy fly to left on the first pitch), and several of Geovany Soto's AB. Lou also said that he's going to give Koyie Hill the bulk of the playing time the rest of the way. That's not to say that Hill is a great player -- he's not -- but right now he's hitting more consistently than Soto and he seems to have the confidence of the pitching staff. Soto can get in shape over the winter and try to win his job back next spring.

What more can be said? The hanging-on-by-a-thread playoff hopes still hang, as with 34 games remaining the deficit in the wild-card race is six games (at the time I wrote this; if the Rockies hold on to their lead on the Giants, it would be 6.5 games). There's still time, but it is growing short. A winning streak comprising at least the rest of this homestand would be helpful; at the very least it would include a win over the White Sox, something that's always pleasant. The division title is pretty much a foregone conclusion to the Cardinals, who are now 10 games ahead and have a magic number to clinch of 23.

Just beat the Astros tomorrow and go from there.

Foxy Day: Jake Fox's Slam, 5 RBI Lead Cubs To 11-4 Blowout Of Mets

Al — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 23:45:18 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

This guy can hit. Nice work, Jake.

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All the Cubs can do each day is exactly what they did this afternoon -- come out, swing the bats, come from behind if necessary, make plays in the field... and who knows what might happen in the future?

Jake Fox hit a grand slam and drove in five runs to lead the Cubs to an 11-4 win over the Mets, and now the Cubs have a nice little four-out-of-six run going.

Whatever you think of Fox playing in the field -- and he's obviously only adequate at any of his defensive positions, and wouldn't have come near the nice running catch Sam Fuld made in the 8th after replacing him -- the man can hit, and is a fine player to have on a major league bench. Between Iowa and the Cubs this season, Fox now has 324 at-bats. In those AB, he has combined for 24 doubles, 27 HR and 92 RBI, while hitting .355/.430/.701. Most impressive, and though he won't come close to being voted Rookie of the Year, I could see giving him a third-place vote.

He'll probably play left field again tomorrow, as Lou reported in his postgame press conference that Alfonso Soriano's MRI showed only "inflammation" in his knee, no major damage, and he'll be examined tomorrow and possibly get a "shot" (I suppose Lou meant cortisone, if they still do that), and perhaps Soriano will be available by Monday.

In the meantime, Fox is more than a capable fill-in.

It started out as one of those games that you're glad you're the home team and have the last at-bat; Ryan Dempster got himself in trouble with a walk and a pair of hits leading to two runs in the first inning, and though the Cubs took the lead in the third (thanks in part to Dempster getting the walk back as a hitter), he gave it right back in the fourth. Dempster appeared to be trying to throw as hard as the wind was blowing today; he didn't have good command, though he did register seven strikeouts. The Cubs got a break in what could have been a Mets blowout inning in that fourth; Fernando Tatis tried to score with nobody out and two runs already in when a throw appeared to get away, but Mike Fontenot's relay cut him down. After that Dempster settled down and allowed only two more baserunners, while the offense was bailing him out in the fifth.

Nice game today for Milton Bradley, who had hits in his first three at-bats (making seven straight plate appearances he had reached base, including the four yesterday), and blasted a RBI double off the wall in the third, scoring Dempster. There were some scattered boos early in the game when Bradley was announced, but his play today turned those into cheers by the time he came up and walked in the eighth. I won't boo Bradley -- in fact, I hope he has a great September, because that would truly help the team. Aramis Ramirez also had a nice day today, with a pair of hits and RBI and a nice snag of a hot line drive by Angel Pagan. And Koyie Hill chipped in with two hits, including a RBI double; Hill's triple-slash numbers of .245/.329/.347 aren't great, but they are at least the equal of Geovany Soto's (.215/.322/.377). For now, I think Hill deserves the bulk of the playing time; Soto can get into shape and work hard and win the job back next spring.

Aaron Heilman came in and threw two scoreless innings in what might be his last appearance as a Cub. It was a bit surprising that Lou didn't leave him in to finish the game and get a save, but Sean Marshall hadn't thrown since Tuesday, so I can actually understand Lou's motivation to get Marshall an inning of work.

It was chilly today, and you could see the effects of the strong west-northwest wind in the upper deck seats. The LF upper deck, which was blocked from the wind, stayed full most of the game, but the RF upper deck, fully exposed, emptied out after the seventh inning stretch.

It was 64 degrees at game time and never got much warmer. 64 degrees is the average high temperature in Chicago on October 16. Let's hope this good Cubs play of the last two days keeps up and we have the chance to experience baseball at Wrigley Field on and after that date. Keep the faith.