SB Nation - Jason Marquis

Washington Nationals: Rule 5 Draft/Winter Meetings Wrap.

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 11:31:53 -0000

by Nati Harnik - AP

The Washington Nationals will reportedly select Yankees' left-hander Zack Kroenke No. 1 overall in today's Rule 5 Draft and then send him back to NY to complete the Brian Bruney trade. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik, File)

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• While you were sleeping the Washington Nationals were still out there in Indianapolis talking trades, talking to agents and attempting to make one last deal before the end of the 2009 Winter Meetings. At 11:16 pm EST Wednesday night, the Washington Times reported via Twitter that the New York Yankees would have Washington draft the Yanks' 25-year-old left-handed '05 5th Round draft pick, pitcher Zach Kroenke, "...first in (the) Rule 5 Draft," and then, "..trade him back (to NY) to complete the Brian Bruney deal." Continuing the report, Washington Times' writer Ben Goessling noted in an article entitled, "Nats will select Kroenke first in Rule 5", that, "Kroenke's value increased this week after (NY) traded left-hander Phil Coke," in the three-team blockbuster deal with the D-Backs and Tigers, and now Kroenke, the Lincoln, Nebraska native and University of Nebraska product:

"...could find work on the team as a lefty specialist next season, and there has been enough interest in the 25-year-old that the Yankees are afraid of losing him."

BACKPAGE:

• Nationals Rumors At The Official Site, The Times and The Post.

BACKPAGE:

• Nationals Rumors At The Official Site, The Times and The Post.

• MLB.com's Bill Ladson was still up and reporting at 2:00 am last night (this morning), sending out a Tweet which updated the persistent rumors of the New York Mets' interest in Washington Nationals' outfielder Josh Willingham by writing:

"The Mets wanted to know which player the Nats wanted for OF Josh Willingham, but the Nats told New York they plan to hold on to J.W."

• In an article wrapping up the news from the third day of the Winter Meetings entitled, "Nats searching for arms, backup infielder, MLB.com's Bill Ladson went on to write that Washington, "...still has interest in right-hander Livan Hernandez, the team's own free agent, and right-hander Jason Marquis," and in addition to some of the other pitchers' names that were mentioned as being on the Nationals' radar last night, Washington was still, "...looking for an infielder, most likely a backup second baseman to help the team defensively," now that they had decided to go ahead with their plans to move Guzman to second base next season.

• Washington Post writer Chico Harlan's last report of the night entitled, "Rizzo Day III Briefing", quoted the DC GM Mike Rizzo talking about Washington's pursuit of a middle infielder, writing that, "Rizzo now sees the signing/acquisition of a 2B as being more likely, especially with free agents Adam Everett and Bobby Crosby off the market," and quoting Mr. Rizzo himself, who states that he, "...think(s) there's certainly more second baseman available of interest than there are shortstops of interest," though Mr. Rizzo doesn't mention the names of any infielders in particular.

Washington Nationals: Winter Meetings Wrap.

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 01:28:33 -0000

More photos » by Haraz N. Ghanbari - AP

Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo found the catcher he wanted at the Winter Meetings, now the Nationals need to add some pitching. (AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari)

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Before the Winter Meetings, the Washington Nationals made clear that they did not think it was absolutely essential that they add the pitching help they need from the top of the free agent class or within the three-day span of the Indianapolis Winter Meetings, as DC GM Mike Rizzo explained to MLB.com's Bill Ladson, who wrote in a 12/2/09 article entitled, "Pitching the focus for Nats at Meetings", that fans shouldn't, "...look for the the Nationals to attempt to break the bank," in pursuit of free agent help, as they did last Winter in their pursuit of Mark Teixeira, who we've been told, time and again, was seen as a once-in-a-generation talent, but instead should accept the fact that it's more, "...likely that Rizzo will make trades."

(cont.)...

BACKPAGE:

• The LIST.

• Oh...AND LIVAN HERNANDEZ!

• Guzman To Second, Desmond At Short?

• Bally To The Bullpen? WT...

BACKPAGE:

• The LIST as the DC Faithful are calling it, (ed. note - "No one is calling it that."), that Rizzo gave to Washington Post writer Chico Harlan for an article entitled, "Reading Material, Shopping Lists", of pitchers that the Nationals were interested in this winter, started with 14 names, but as the Winter Meetings officially end following tomorrow's Rule 5 Draft, the list has been shortened some, from, "Jason Marquis, Randy Wolf, John Lackey, Cliff Lee, Jon Garland, Kevin Millwood, Tim Hudson, Brad Penny, Joel Piñeiro, Braden Looper, Jarrod Washburn, Brandon Webb, Brett Myers, John Smoltz and more..." to, as the Post's Chico Harlan wrote in two Nationals Journal posts entitled, "The starting pitching shopping list", and "The starting pitching, Pt. II":

"(Jon Garland and)...almost every established free agent starting pitcher except the A-lister, John Lackey. So, the Nats would entertain the possibility of Jarrod Washburn, Joel Pineiro, Vicente Padilla, Jason Marquis, and John Smoltz."

• Oh...AND LIVAN HERNANDEZ!

After Washington Post writer Dave Sheinin wrote about Elijah Dukes' winter, he added a note to the end of an article entitled, "Nationals notes: Dukes, L. Hernandez", about the Washington Nationals making contract with the agent for Mr. National Himself, Livan Hernandez, the original Nationals' Ace, who has openly expressed his desire to return to the nation's capital since the end of the '09 season. Mr. Sheinin writes that Hernandez's agent, "(Barry) Praver would not characterize the talks", but in the Washington Post writer's opinion it would take, "...a one-year contract with a low base and ample performance incentives."

-- (ed. note - "Do you want to see Livan Hernandez return to the Nationals? From what I've read in the comments, it's pretty much split amongst the DC Faithful...Should the Nationals let Livan teach Strasburg the eephus?")

• Guzman To Second, Desmond At Short?

MLB.com's Bill Ladson was Twittering throughout the Winter Meetings, letting Nationals' fans know what was going on long before it went into print (as were the Washington Times' writers), and the biggest revelation out of the final day in Indianapolis was that the Nationals had made up their minds about what to do with their twenty-ten middle infield:

"It appears the Nats will take a chance with Cristian Guzman at second base. That means Orlando Hudson is not coming to DC."

Does that mean that Ian Desmond is officially a "Go!" at short? Are the Nationals still going to try to find another option at short?

• Bally To The Bullpen? WT...

The other interesting thing that MLB.com's Bill Ladson Twittered was the idea that:

"The Nats may rely on some of their youngsters in the bullpen. Luis Atilano, Collin Balester and Craig Stammen are candidates."

As the Nationals' system produces more pitching, some of the older starters who haven't established themselves are going to have to make the move to the pen to make room for the next wave of pitchers. Is Balester on that list in your mind? (ed. note - "Not mine.")...What about J.D. Martin? Shairon Martis? Atilano? Stammen? Ross Detwiler? Is this Washington's way of saying why sign relievers when we have all these arms under contract?

Tuesday Rockpile: Rafael Betancourt is officially a Rockie again

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:42:20 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

These two guys' fates seem to have shifted a bit.

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Some GM's, like David Dombrowski, choose to use the Winter Meetings to contact every team about Edwin Jackson - including the Rockies - only to pull him off the table. Instead, it seems Dan O'Dowd spent the majority of his time secluded in his room talking with his own players' agents yesterday.

Dan O'Dowd and Rafael Betancourt had danced in and out of option year, two year contract and three year contract discussions, with the Betancourt ultimately accepting arbitration (Renck) late last night. He'll likely make close to what he did had the Rockies exercised his option.

Thomas Harding reports that, as expected, Jason Marquis has declined arbitration (Harding), rewarding the Rockies with a sandwich pick for having the guts to risk dealing with his eight figure salary had he accepted. In truth, you would be hard pressed to find a more clearcut case for declining $10+mil guaranteed around the league.

Troy Renck reported that O'Dowd has been working on multi-year deals for Huston Street, Clint Barmes and Chris Iannetta, as fanshotted below by Hizilla. Street has been seeking $30mil, but the ultimate offer should be closer to $25mil.

As for locking up Iannetta (Harding), the deal is a buy-low contract that would buy out his arbitration years. It would be unlikely to pay him much more than he would receive those years. Harding notes that Iannetta actually improved his slugging percentage last season by twenty points. Who knew? A quick note from the bottom of the article. Dan O'Dowd said "[Franklin Morales] is going back into our bullpen."

As noted early in the day, the Rockies cleared space for Ryan Spilborghs (Harding). In deciding not to sell low on the gaucho, Dan O'Dowd had to tell Matt Murton he was once again squeezed from a deserved MLB roster spot. He was then sold to a team in Japan. I hope he can return to get another shot on this side of the Pacific in 2011.

For a brief wrap of NL West Rumors from the meetings, take the jump.

Arizona

MLBTR reports several teams are interested in reliever JJ Putz, including Arizona.

The Diamondbacks reportedly pushed yesterday's blockbuster trade, in which they would send Max Scherzer and one or two prospects while receiving Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. The deal would also involve Curtis Granderson. While Joel Sherman called the deal dead and Buster Olney is "unsure if the embers can be re-lit", there is one optimist. Jon Paul Morosi reports it is still a possibility.

Arizona beat writer Nick Piecoro's head must have been spinning, as he clearly disagreed with the idea of offering Scherzer for Jackson.

Los Angeles

While Los Angeles has no plans to decrease payroll (Dylan Hernandez, LA Times), they don't seem to be in much of a place of power. The Mets reportedly agreed to send Luis Castillo to Los Angeles for Juan Pierre, a move that would improve the Dodgers' starting lineup and take an expensive bench player off the books, but Ned Colletti wants pitching in return.

The Blue Jays talked to the Dodgers about Roy Halladay (Jayson Stark) but there is expectedly no match there

Colletti is also open to dealing lefty George Sherrill.

San Diego

The Padres will apparently non-tender Kevin Correia MLBTR), who was clearly their most valuable pitcher from start to finish. The former Giant had just a $750k base salary last season. It's a very sad cheap move from the Friars, but I guess they'll need to the money to pay their closer. While Heath Bell is one of their most enticing trade chips, San Diego's new GM Jed Hoyer seems inclined to keep Bell (Corey Brock, MLB.com), who would garner about a $5mil salary next season.

San Diego has also been linked to outfielder Reed Johnson (Bill Center, San Diego Union Tribune) and are now on the prowl for a backup catcher with the loss of Henry Blanco (Center).

San Francisco

St. Louis put a dent in the Giants' rotational depth, as the Cards signed Brad Penny to a one -year $7.5mil base salary contract (Buster Olney). He will likely have a physical tomorrow to complete the deal.

MLB.com's Chris Haft has some Giants nuggets - Eugenio Velez or Andres Torres will be their leadoff hitter, neither Pablo Sandoval nor Ryan Garko will catch at all next year, and the Giants might attempt to acquire Juan Rivera if the Angels sign Jason Bay.

Speaking of Garko, he is still "on the bubble" for being non-tendered a contract, according to Sabean (Andrew Baggarly).

Only one NL team remains a serious player for Dan Uggla, that team being San Francisco (Joe Frisaro, MLB.com). The Orioles are the most likely landing spot.

Twitter Is Ridiculous Applesauce - Omar Meets The Agents, Juan Pierre Is Available And Nonsensical Rumors

James Kannengieser — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:05:48 -0000

It seems reporters/"journalists" are neglecting to consider source bias and failing to corroborate rumors with multiple sources before posting on Twitter or a blog. All in the name of page hitzzz I suppose.

Meet the Mets

Omar Minaya met with the agents for various players last night, including John Lackey, Jason Marquis, Bengie Molina, Joel Pineiro and Randy Wolf.

In an interview with Daily 'Stache, Adam Rubin says the Mets should focus on pitching this offseason, namely Lackey. He also says Jeff Francoeur is the most reliable provider of good quotes.

Steve Henson says that 3-4 teams are interested in Dodgers OF Juan Pierre. A trade for Pierre would likely include a bad contract player, AKA Luis Castillo. No thanks on Pierre. Speaking of undesirable players, Jerry Crasnick reports that Elmer Dessens will likely re-sign with the Mets. If it's a major league deal you better get ready for Dessens Avenue.

Ken Davidoff tweets that Yorvit Torrealba is on the Mets radar. Interesting, considering the bizarre chain of events involving the Mets and Torrealba two offseasons ago.

Joel Sherman reports that a John Maine for Corey Hart trade is being discussed. Hart is just 27 years old and two years removed from a 4+ win season but I'd rather hold on to Maine. Will at BlueAndOrange agrees and thinks the deal is plausible, especially considering Omar Minaya's affinity for bad corner outfielders.

Mets Fever is also a fan of Adam Kennedy. If Castillo can be moved, Kennedy is the way to go.

LOL Rumors of the Day

Early yesterday it was reported that Pat Burrell had been traded to the Mets. This story was debunked almost immediately and the original story has been taken down from PhillyBlurbs, the website with the original report. Folks, cool it with your bogus anonymous sources, you're not providing a valuable service and it's annoying. No one is impressed.

Ed Price of Fanhouse tweeted the following yesterday:

Rumor that #Mets acquire Edwin Jackson

This was followed shortly by a clarification tweet from Price:

To be clear: #Mets and Edwin Jackson not confirmed. Heard in the lobby.

Why not get confirmation before posting the rumor? Does "heard in the lobby" count as a reliable source nowadays?

Around MLB

The Nationals gave Pudge Rodriguez 2 years, $6 million for some reason.

Randy Wolf reportedly signed with the Brewers for 3 years and an unknown dollar amount.

Chuck Brownson at The Hardball Times discusses swaps for bad contracts, including Dontrelle Willis, Milton Bradley, Gil Meche and Kevin Millwood.

Tim Marchman thinks an intra-Chicago trade between the Cubs and White Sox involving Milton Bradley makes sense.

Matt Murton, a notorious ginger and player good enough to start on many major league teams, is going to play for the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. I wonder if Murton realizes he's good enough for MLB.

Off topic link of the day: Tom Tango reviews the incredibly enjoyable movie Taken and heaps justifiable praise on Liam Neeson. I agree with him, Taken is fantastic.

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

Jason Marquis vs. Bill James vs. CHONE vs. Marcel vs. RMN

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 18:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Isaac Brekken - AP

Project This.

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Beginning of the season, Counting Rocks broke down each member of the rotation in hopes of making a prediction on the season everyone would have. While we'll cover the rest of the rotation/team later on down the line, I want to take a look at how Jason Marquis performed against the projections, as coming into the season, he was effectively the most boring starter we had, and everyone had a good idea of what we were going to get out of him. Innings eaten, unimpressive ERA, generally blah.

Boy, he sure made us look silly, didn't he? I mean, not to the extent where we're extending him, obviously, but he certainly outperformed my expectations as well as most everyone else's.

Jason Marquis

#21 / Pitcher / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Aug 21, 1978

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Marquis	15-13	38	33	2	1	0	0	216.0	218	104	97	15	80	115	4.04	1.38

So now that we've seen Marquis' season, let's move past the jump and take a look at what the projections all had to say about him.

Without further ado, here are the projections of Marquis, and at the bottom, we look at his actual season:

	G	GS	W	L	IP	SO	BB	K/BB	HR/9	K/9	BB/9	WHIP	BABIP	FIP	ERA
Bill James	29	27	9	10	167	94	65	1.45	1.19	5.07	3.50	1.43	0.287	5.05	4.60
CHONE	29	29	8	10	167	92	68	1.35	1.08	4.96	3.66	1.52	0.305	5.04	5.32
Marcel			10	9	162	96	66	1.45	1.00	5.33	3.67	1.43	0.291	4.78	4.61
RMN	30	30	9	8	177	96	73	1.30	0.94	4.90	3.71	1.50	0.299	4.74	4.71
Actual	33	33	15	13	216	115	80	1.44	0.63	4.79	3.33	1.38	0.291	4.10	4.04

So who was closest? Well, I was closest to the number of starts he'd make, so hurrah for me. I was also "closest" to his FIP, although we all missed out on that in general. Bill James was closest to his actual ERA, but again, we all thought he'd be far worse than he was. Amusingly enough, he struck out AND walked fewer than anyone expected. He kicked the crap out his projected HR9, but we'll touch on that in a second. Basically, we were all somewhat close, but wrong. In the right ballpark.

So the first thing that pops out to my eyes is the fact that none of the projection systems thought he'd pitch as many innings as he did. So right off the bat, he provided more for the Rockies in terms of bullpen rest than we anticipated. He accomplished this in part by remaining healthy and not getting himself booted from the rotation, but we'll touch on that below.

The second thing that pops out is clearly the ERA/FIP. Marquis pitched like a man's man, laughed at the projections, and went ahead and showed us all what's what.

The third thing that pops out, and I'm a bit surprised at this, but his HR9 of a mere 0.63. Marquis also enjoyed a career-low 7.8 HR/FB%, very much below his career mark of 11.8%, which, as predicted, helped deflate his ERA/FIP/whatever. BUT CORZ RITE? Marquis allowed .43 HR/9 at home, .82 HR/9 on the road. Do you like apples?

Fourth, and it's not on this chart here, but his 55.6 GB% was just absurd. Absolutely ridiculous. He fully credited pitching coach Bob Apodaca in fixing his sinker, and man did he fix it, good for 3^rd highest in baseball, behind Joel Pineiro's absurd 60.5% and Derek Lowe's excellent 56.3%.

And finally, I will go ahead and toss the man a bone. He posted 15 wins while ranking 58^th/77 eligibile starters in terms of run support per 9 innings (4.42 runs per 9). While I still stand by my disdain for using Wins to grade a pitcher, knowing the entire context makes this somewhat more impressive.

So as I'm sitting here thinking "wow, I was awfully hard on Marquis this season," I figured his first half was so good, I'd wager his second half matched his projections more closely. You know, the "real" Jason Marquis showed up 2nd half, and he sucks something awful, right? Running the numbers, I came up with the following:

	G	GS	W	L	IP	SO	BB	K/BB	HR/9	K/9	BB/9	WHIP	BABIP	FIP	ERA
Bill James	29	27	9	10	167	94	65	1.45	1.19	5.07	3.50	1.43	0.287	5.05	4.60
CHONE	29	29	8	10	167	92	68	1.35	1.08	4.96	3.66	1.52	0.305	5.04	5.32
Marcel			10	9	162	96	66	1.45	1.00	5.33	3.67	1.43	0.291	4.78	4.61
RMN	30	30	9	8	177	96	73	1.30	0.94	4.90	3.71	1.50	0.299	4.74	4.71
1st Half	18	18	11	6	123.33	58	40	1.45	0.66	4.23	2.92	1.31	0.273	3.86	3.65
2nd Half	15	15	4	7	92.67	57	40	1.43	0.58	5.54	3.88	1.48	0.318	4.11	4.56

Huh. Well, color me surprised. It looks like he struck out more, walked more, but ultimately didn't have that much worse of a second half. ERA makes it look worse than it is, but you can probably chalk a lot of that up to a low 1^st half BABIP and a high 2^nd half BABIP. It appears as if the "real" Marquis showed up, unless if you consider that 4.11 FIP is lower than his career mark. The 4.56 ERA is right in line with his career line, yeah, but if you consider how he's a 4.88 ERA/FIP (yes, they're the same) 2nd half pitcher, and the fact that his OMG ITZ THE REAL MARQUIS numbers were better than all the projections for the entire season, maybe I should just admit he had a good season. Not that I'm attacking him or anything, but he did well with the opportunity given to him, however you slice it.

Now I mentioned it above, but his innings pitched total really was understated by the fact that we had 5 guys in the rotation for the majority of the season, excepting the short time that Aaron Cook had his nice little sampler plate of injuries. 216 IP is downright fantastic, ranking 15^th among the 77 eligible starters. Remember that typically your IP leader is your ace (pitchers that are ahead of Marquis in IP are: Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, Tim Lincecum, Bronson Arroyo, James Shields, Javier Vazquez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Cain), and the back end of the rotation is usually a revolving door, meaning that you are scrambling to find pitchers to take the spots and dealing with burned out bullpens. Had our rotation not performed so swimmingly overall this season, Marquis' 216IP would have really been more appreciated.

To summarize all the blathering I've done about Marquis in this article, it kind of comes down to this: Marquis exceeded our expectations of him by a long shot, and his accomplishments in being pretty decent (if not completely boring) were completely overshadowed by the best rotation in Colorado Rockies history.

So kudos to you, Jason Marquis, for blowing by projections, for helping us get rid of Luis Vizcaino, for fixing your sinker, for helping Colorado to their 3^rd postseason, for pitching that scoreless inning against Philadelphia, and for earning yourself probably another 3-year deal. Thanks for the memories, and hopefully the sandwich pick.

Arbitration News - UPDATE

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:36:44 -0000

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A couple arbitration related headlines making news this Tuesday, courtesy of MLB.com:

The Rockies have offered arbitration to pitchers Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt. The Rockies and Betancourt could not work out a two-year deal earlier this offseason, but likely will try to work out a deal before the hearing. Either way, they have set themselves up for draft picks if they don't sign either.
The Blue Jays have offered arbitration to shortstop Marco Scutaro and catcher Rod Barajas. Scutaro, a Type-A free agent, may have trouble finding a job this offseason if the Red Sox pursue other options at short. Teams may not be as willing to surrender to draft picks for a guy like Scutaro, who is only a .265 hitter who has never hit more than 9 home runs before this past season, when he hit 12.
The Padres will not offer arbitration to outfielder Brian Giles or catcher Henry Blanco. Blanco has drawn interest from the Mets, White Sox, and Braves.
The White Sox will not offer arbitration to outfielder Jermaine Dye, pitcher Octavio Dotel, outfielder Scott Podsednik, or catcher Ramon Castro.
Bob Dutton via Twitter is reporting that the Royals will not offer arbitration to Miguel Olivo. Olivo is the only Royal to receive a free agent ranking, he is a Type-B free agent.
The Detroit Free Press is reporting that the Tigers offered arbitration to right-handers Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney, but not infielder Placido Polanco, shortstop Adam Everett, left-hander Jarrod Washburn and first baseman-designated hitter Aubrey Huff. The Tigers are expected to stay in contract with Polanco and Everett, but sources say they have already moved on from Huff and Washburn.
Carrie Muskat via Twitter is reporting that the Cubs will not offer arbitration to pitchers Rich Harden or Kevin Gregg.

The Mets' Advantage

Sam Page — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 11:00:15 -0000

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The local papers have come to their yearly consensus about the Mets offseason--it's a gap year. While the prospects of 2011 remain bright, the puppet Minaya regime are prisoners of circumstance, trapped in their bailout-funded stadium, recently painted red and blue in their latest failed attempt to appease fans. The evidence is irrefutable. The good free agent hitters won't sign because the park is too big. The good pitchers won't sign because the park isn't actually that big at all. Groundball pitchers are seeking teams with better infield defense, while the flyballs pitchers are just seeking employment. Unfortunately none of that matters, as the Madoff scandal has left the Mets with no budget at all. But we could only be that lucky, as the Wilpons actually made money off the ponzi scheme, and are prepared to invest considerable funds in the aforementioned "good" free agents, actually landmines--likely to fizzle out the second they cash their signing bonuses.

Fortunately, as is their nature, these writers have made the solution equally clear. The fundamental weaknesses remain minor league depth and fielding, so all the minor the leaguers should be sent post-haste to Toronto in a package for a pitcher who will likely walk after the season's end. Whatever money remains will be divided equally between paying-off some unwitting team to take our defensively-challenged secondbaseman and committing another four years to his similarly inept replacement.

In reality, however, the Mets have considerable advantages in this market. Many teams are still looking to shed payroll after sub-par attendance. Several talented free agents have been forced to hit the market after disappointing seasons. The Mets have payroll room and two more years of criminal-underpayment of Wright and Reyes to play with. Instead of signing Jon Garland for upwards of $10MM, they should be inquiring on Bronson Arroyo, a pitcher with better stuff and even more durable track-record, who the Reds are trying desperately to give away. The advantage here is that the Mets get their "innings-eater" on a one-year deal, while gaining leverage in a trade for a player they'd actually want to build around, like Brandon Phillips. Potentially, the Mets could even get Aaron Harang, a solid starter, not quite the caliber of John Lackey--but close enough, for little additional cost. That's $30.25MM dollars to solve their rotation issues and add another "core" player, with a cheap talent cost and without the uncertainty of negotiation, or temptation to overpay.

Or maybe the Mets will just notice that pitchers better than Jon Garland and Jason Marquis are being desperately ditched by other teams, and get the hint that multi-year, multimillion dollar commitments to pitchers with marginal stuff rarely--if ever--end well. In the never-ending myopia of the Mets brass (and some of their fans), though, the injuries of last season will create a premium on durability. Undoubtedly some nightmarish, Oliver-Perez-part-deux scenario will develop where Jeff Wilpon and John Ricco conference call with "Scott Boras," who is really just Omar Minaya in the other room, forging fake term-sheets between Jon Garland and the Brewers, which he might "accidentally" leave in the fax machine on his way out.

Get Doug Davis, Claudio Vargas, Odalis Perez, Todd Wellemeyer, whomever. They'll give you the desired 200 generic innings at virtually no cost. Get Brandon Knight back from Korea. Livan. What? Yea, Captain Rubber Arm himself. Pop quiz: who had better peripherals last season: Jon Garland or Livan Hernandez? The answer may surprise you.

Alternatively, the Mets could take Magglio Ordonez and his $18MM salary off Dave Dombrowski's hands for the inside track in negotiating a Edwin Jackson or Curtis Granderson trade. Same basic idea: rightfield is hardly a sure thing, whether you believe in Jeff Francoeur or not, and the Mets get to leverage their financial advantage to add a player for the long-term.

Both of those scenarios fill the Mets "holes," both now and in 2011-12, with a little extra cash to burn. Some have speculated that the Wilpon's budget for this season is closer to $20MM, but with so many contracts finally expiring and the luxury-tax threshold rising closer ~$160MM, they can really spend up to $50MM, if they so choose. Let's just take the first trade-scenario, the Reds one, and kind of speculate on a possible team. $31MM leaves $10MM, for the sake of being realistic, which the Mets can use to sign Rick Ankiel and Troy Glaus. Those two are solid complements to Pagan and Murphy, who have middle of the order power, when healthy. If the Mets traded for Magglio and E-Jax they could add a Sheets/Harden tandem to the rotation, which gives them four players with ace-potential. Or they could negotiate a backloaded John Lackey contract, not my favorite idea, but definitely an improvement.

Ordonez, Harang, and Arroyo are basically solid-role players with ripcords for 2011. Adding another cheap "core" caliber player also seems more necessity than luxury with Wright and Reyes' costs rising. The Mets added many high-risk, high-upside players in the 2009 offseason, but did so without accounting for the risk. Oliver Perez has no buyout. Francisco Rodriguez will destroy the payroll in 2012. J.J. Putz had an buy-out, but was a waste of talent. Now faced with high-upside free agents available on the cheap, they seem resolved to do the only thing worse: invest long-term in high-risk, no-upside players. In the year 2011, the Mets graduate their best hitting prospects in 8 years, Ike Davis and Reese Havens, but are unable to complement them with a decent leftielder or bullpen, because no one will take on Jason Marquis' contract. Wait, I know how this ends. I'll take the gap-year, please.

Free Agent Starting Pitching: BCB Weighs In

roguejim — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:51:33 -0000

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I am Carl Pavano --- no one gave up more earned runs last year in all of baseball last year than I. But I command you to look only at my peripherals! Look at them! Yesss...stare longingly at my sweet sweet peripherals. Love them! (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

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It just occurred to me that the Winter Meetings are coming up fast, and we haven't told Doug Melvin which two free agent pitchers we wanted. (Frankly, that's probably how the Hardy/Gomez trade went down: we didn't specifically tell DM for whom Hardy should be traded, and he went rogue and made the trade himself.) Assuming we can't (and shouldn't!) get into a bidding war on the services of John Lackey, which two of the free agent pitchers listed below should we try to sign, and why? Be sure to consider salary when choosing.

(Note 1: I'm not including the likes of Mulder and Halama, as you can't sign them and assume they'll win a spot.)

(Note 2: I haven't seen much written about Kelvim Escobar, who hasn't had an ERA north of 4 since 2003. The Red Sox are asking about him, the Brewers should too.)

(Note 3: Shawn Hill is cheap, a sinkerballer, often injured, and one of the few ex-Expos out there not yet 30. A perfect flier for the Brewers.)

Here's the list:

Aroldis Chapman, LHP who throws 100 MPH, albeit erratically
Randy Wolf
Rich Harden
Erik Bedard
John Smoltz
Andy Pettitte
Joel Pineiro
Jarrod Washburn
Ben Sheets
Brad Penny
Justin Duchscherer
Pedro Martinez. Vote for Pedro!
Doug Davis
Jason Marquis
Jon Garland
Vicente Padilla
Carl Pavano
Braden Looper
Randy Johnson
Mike Hampton
Hisanori Takahashi
Paul Byrd
Ugh...I'll opt for choosing only one free agent and trading Gamel for the other

Saturday Rockpile: Rockies retain Phillips, protect five prospects by adding to 40-man roster

theoldgrizzlybear — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:02:47 -0000

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Phillips is in the fold - The Denver Post
The Rox signed Paul Phillips to a hefty $13,000/month contract yesterday, which gives the Rockies a contingency plan in the event that Yorvit Torrealba is lost to free agency and Michael McKenry doesn't become superman in Spring Training (which I have a good feeling he won't do, although I'm definitely rooting for it).

McKenry among those added to 40-man roster | All Things Rockies
Speaking of Michael McKenry, the Rox protected five prospects from the Rule 5 Draft. It's good to know that McKenry, Al Alburquerque, Edgmer Escalona, Juan Nicasio, and Chaz Roe won't be leaving the organization without a return. The club still has two open spots to play with.

White Sox add five to 40-man roster | MLB.com: News
Former Colorado farmhand Brandon Hynick was among Chicago's additions.

Law: Ranking the top 50 MLB free agents - ESPN (Insider Only)
Keith Law lists his top free agents, from Matt Holliday at No. 1 to Adam Everett at No. 50. In between, two Rockies players are included - the soon-to-be-gone Jason Marquis (#32) and Rafael Betancourt (#33). Here's what Law had to say about Raffy:

Betancourt throws a lot of fastballs and throws them for strikes. He's at 89-94 mph, mostly 91-93, with a short arm action and good deception because of it, and his stinginess with the walk -- only 85 unintentionals in 435 career innings -- should keep him employed for a while. He'll get ahead with the fastball, and he primarily uses his slider when he's ahead, especially with two strikes, although he's just as likely to keep pumping heat. His 2008 season, whether bad luck or a carryover from the way manager Eric Wedge overused him in 2007, now looks like a fluke, and Betancourt is the rare middle reliever who's worth a multiyear contract.

Final notes from Arizona Fall League - ESPN (Insider Only)
No mention of any Rockies, but there is a story about a bat boy-turned-criminal from ESPN.com's Jason Grey:

Stuff had been disappearing from one of the team's clubhouses for a period of a couple weeks. This situation was apparently resolved when police offers literally went into the dugout during the game and took the team's batboy away in handcuffs. Did I mention this happened during the game? The look on the manager's face was priceless, as in "What the heck are you doing in my dugout?" Lacking a batboy, the club plucked a lucky fan out of the stands to fill the role for the rest of the contest.