SB Nation - Geovany Soto

Down on the Farm: MLB Fantasy Prospects Breaks Down the Roy Halladay Deal

raygu — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 14:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

8 days ago: FILE - In this Feb. 28, 2007, file photo, Philadelphia Phillies' Kyle Drabek ptiches against Florida State during a spring training baseball game in Clearwater, Fla. Drabek was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2009, part of a four-team trade that sent Roy Halliday to the Phillies and Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton, File)

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contributed by Stephen Sheridan at MLB Fantasy Prospects

All of the dust has settled on what ESPN's Jayson Stark explains, "...isn't just a trade. It's a foray into the history books." MLBFP closely studied this monster trade to figure out how the pieces fit together. Of course, we concentrated on the prospects, only. If you don't already know that Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are top ten starters in any format, maybe you might need a new hobby.

We begin by taking a look at the Blue Jays' haul for Roy Halladay, which includes Kyle Drabek, Brett Wallace (obtained by flipping Michael Taylor to the A's. Stay tuned for our interview with him, later this weekend), and Travis D'Arnaud.

Loyal MLBFP readers already know that Drabek holds a spot on our list of Top 25 Fantasy Prospects for 2010 & Beyond, coming in at #17. Once you've read our scouting report on Kyle, you'll see that we that this kid might someday follow in his daddy's footsteps and win a Cy Young Award. On December 17, John Manual and J.J. Cooper discussed the big trade on the Baseball America Podcast. They now list Kyle Drabek as Toronto's number one prospect. Who's number two? Brett Wallace, of course.

One of the only knocks on Wallace has been his defense at third base. That may no longer be an issue. Recently, Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopoulos chatted with fans on MLB.com about the Halladay trade and prospects for the Blue Jays in the future. During the chat, Anthropoulos said the following:

We think Wallace is capable of playing third. But, we see him being an above average defensive first baseman. Our hope is to have a strong as a defensive club as we can and putting players in a position where they have a chance to impact the club in the best way defensively.

Sure sounds as if Brett's days manning the hot corner are over. In my opinion, this is a positive move because now he can concentrate on what he does best - crushing the baseball! Back in July, he was traded to the A's in the deal that sent Matt Holliday to the Cardinals. Regardless of where he played in 2009, albeit in the Texas League (AA) or the Pacific Coast League (AAA) - for two different organizations, no less - Wallace proved he's ready for the bigs. For the year, he hit .293 with 20 homers and a .822 OPS. Sure, with the move to first base, we'll want to see him get that .455 slugging percentage a bit higher. Even so, as Bill Root pointed out after Brett's trade to Oakland, "The Arizona State alum has hit at every level in the minors." If that's not enough of a ringing endorsement, Root later proclaims, "he has the skills to win a batting title if he keeps progressing." Upon arriving to the A's organization, Wallace had his best stretch of the season, batting .302 with 9 homers in 182 at-bats.

So when might we see these two top-flight prospects playing in the majors? According to Anthropoulos, (from the aforementioned chat session):

I'd say both Drabek and Wallace are very close. But we don't want to put expectations with respect to a time line on them arriving in Toronto. Since Wallace got to Triple-A last year, you could argue that he is the closest but with Drabek having good success in Double-A last year, he could certainly come fast as well just like Jesse Litsch did.

Barring injuries, MLBFP is willing to bet the house that these guys will be regulars at the Rogers Centre by the end of 2010. So that leaves us with just one player to cover - catching prospect Travis D'Arnaud.

Last season, D'Arnaud played for Single-A Lakewood in the Sally League. When we think Sally, we automatically turn to our friend, Mike Newman and his Scouting the Sally blog. Newman grades Travis really high, as this snippet proves:

At his peak, I would not be surprised to see D'Arnaud surface as a .270-.285 hitter with 18-25 home run power while contributing above average defense and plus game management skills. Among the current catching crop, this would place him in the same company as Geovany Soto, and Miguel Montero who profile as above average regulars, if not occasional all-star caliber players. Select company indeed, but D'Arnaud has the tools and projection to reach those heights. Prospect analysts who regard him as little more than a throw in are seriously undercutting his ability. The Blue Jays gained an excellent prospect.

Those might seem like some lofty expectations, but Newman has been scouting the Sally League for some time now. We at MLBFP highly respect his opinions.

I understand that losing Doc Halladay is a tough pill to sawllow for you Jays fans. But hey, you were going to lose him at the end of the season for nothing! Your new GM came through big in flipping Doc for Drabek and Wallace. Both are blue chippers, just a hair shy of performing in the Major Leagues, potentially at a very high level. Hang in there, Toronto! Anthropoulos might be the real deal.

The NL Central Offseason Revue: Ursine Children

the red baron — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 19:43:23 -0000

Sure, I've used it before. It's a good picture, damn it.

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But first, a story. (Just so you know it's a Baron post.)

Last weekend, my mother and I went shopping. The Cherokee Street Antique Row Association was holding their annual Cookie Spree, and we go every year. There's always people milling around, free hot apple cider, and most of the shops are decorated.

We met up in South County, deciding it was a better idea to take one car. Mom tends to get motion sickness when not driving, so I generally just ride with her. We headed up 55 toward the city, then exited at the 4500 block of Broadway.

At the bottom of the ramp was an old woman holding a sign. A square of cardboard scrawled all over in black marker, I couldn't read exactly what was written but the message was clear nonetheless. It was cold out, and the ragged old overcoat she was clutching around her looked woefully inadequate. I've been conned before, I'm sure, but this was no panhandler. This was an old woman with no place to go who badly needed help.

We came to a stop at the bottom of the ramp, and I dug out my wallet. Mom reached for her purse, and I told her I would get it. I opened my wallet and grabbed the first two bills in it, a ten and a twenty. Then, guided by some internal calculus I don't at all understand, I put the ten back. I handed my mother the twenty, she motioned the old woman over, and gave it to her. The old woman said something, toothless mouth moving quickly, blessing us and wishing us well, but by then the car was moving and I couldn't entirely tell what it was. We continued on our way, had hot chocolate and apple cider and cookies. I bought an antique light fixture; it seemed like a fine day.

I tell you all this not to make you think I'm some sort of saint for giving this old woman twenty dollars, but because ever since then I haven't been able to stop thinking about the ten dollars I didn't give her. I had almost $300 in my wallet that day, and a credit card nowhere near the limit to boot. In no way, shape, or form would that extra ten dollars have hurt me, yet I put it back. And worst of all, I don't understand why. I like to think I would do whatever it takes to help someone in need, but apparently that only goes so far. Apparently there's a price on my generosity, and it's painfully low. A truly good person would have been willing to hand over everything they had in hand and never thought twice about it; I certainly didn't need another antique to litter my already cluttered house.

We went back the same way later, on the way back to my car, but the old woman was gone. I hope what I gave her was enough to help, but I can't stop thinking about that moment, when I arbitrarily decided the limits of how much I was willing to help another human being.

I've had these posts in mind for a while now, trying to take a look around the division at our rivals and what their offseasons might look like, but simply hadn't had the chance to do so yet. With my inability to post a full post on Wednesday, I thought I might ask Dan if he minded me taking today. He seemed amenable to the idea, unsurprising given the dearth of real meat to work with this time of year and what is undoubtedly a crowded schedule for everyone. So here I am, telling you what the Cubs need to do this winter.

I begin with the Cubs because they are our chief rivals and also because it simply fits. We care more about the Cubs. So here we are.

As the Cubbies head into their first offseason with new ownership, the question of payroll undoubtedly must be raised. Their new owner, Tom Ricketts, has pledged to update the stadium and build a winner, but just how much one will impact the other remains to be seen. For now, it looks as if Ricketts is willing to pour money into the franchise in order to win, and we'll have to operate under that assumption.

Offense

The Cubs' offense took a huge hit last season from the high times of 2008, due to several players underperforming. Alfonso Soriano was the biggest culprit, stumbling to an OPS+ of 84 after three seasons over 115. Geovany Soto went through an awful sophomore slump, falling from a 118 OPS+ to 79. Aramis Ramirez missed significant time with a shoulder injury, and Derrek Lee struggled mightily early in the season before turning it around.

There were bright spots, such as the improvement Kosuke Fukudome made from his first season in the majors or the continued non-suckitude of Ryan Theriot, but overall it was an intensely disappointing season for Chicago at the plate. In 2008 the Cubs scored 855 runs; in 2009 they plated only 707. Enough said.

Starting Pitching

If the Cubs' offense was decidedly disappointing, the pitching was underwhelmingly good. Carlos Zambrano continued his human roller coaster act, yet still managed to post an ERA under 4.00 for the eighth straight year. Nonetheless, the Big Z is no longer quite the intimidating force at the front of a rotation he once was. He's still solid, but he doesn't really scare you anymore. (Well, unless you happen to be something edible or punchable in the dugout, that is.)

Ryan Dempster fell off from his 2008 performance, but was still a plus pitcher for Chicago. He was awful much of the early portion of the year, but came on strong late to lower his ERA to 3.65. Dempster provides much-needed innings, and at a reasonably high level. After Z and Dumpster, though, things get a bit murkier.

Ted Lilly, a relatively unsung contributor to the Cubs' back-to-back division titles, has had shoulder surgery already this offseason. It was minor shoulder surgery, yes, but then again, I'm not entirely sure there is such a thing. Lilly was absolutely brilliant in 2009, posting a 3.61 FIP, but until he can prove his shoulder is unequivocally sound, he has to be a concern.

Perhaps the brightest spot of all for the Cubs in '09 was the performance of their rookie hurler, Randy Wells. He went 12-10, 3.05 in his first extended taste of the majors at 27. His peripherals were mostly in line as well, so it doesn't appear he did it all with smoke and mirrors. Still, Wells is a relatively unknown commodity, and may simply be waiting until the time is right to give up a crippling home run, then rip open his jersey, revealing the Cardinal jersey underneath. So there's that.

The Cubs' fifth starter spot was, for the most part, a disaster. Sean Marshall continued to impersonate Sean Marshall. The Cubs acquired Tom Gorzelanny from the Pirates, and he picked up basically where he left off in Pittsburgh. There were positives in his performance, but for the most part it was another disappointing season for the man once voted Most Likely to Actually Live Up to His Billing among all Pittsburgh left-handed starting prospects.

Relief

Carlos Marmol is sort of the pitching equivalent of a British motorcycle. Yeah, it's a whole lot of fun when it's working, and it certainly looks impressive, but damned if the thing isn't broken down and spilling oil all over your driveway more often than not. Marmol has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, but not much idea where it's going a fair amount of the time. Hitters did a much better job of laying off his slider in 2009, and he had a tough time throwing it for strikes. He still struck out a bunch of hitters (93 in 74 innings), and didn't give up many hits (43), but he also walked 65 hitters, leading to a 1.46 WHIP fueled almost entirely by batters simply standing there and doing nothing.

Kevin Gregg was solid, though not the force the Cubs were undoubtedly hoping for, and he has now departed via free agency. Angel Guzman was impressive, combining a repertoire just a step down from Marmol's with actual control, but he remains very young and was shut down late in the season with an injury. Neal Cotts was, um, how do I put this?- shitty, only to be replaced as the primary lefty by John Grabow. Grabow did what he always does, and should be a definite plus in the 'pen for 2010.

Jeff Samardzija continued his enigmatic career arc, following up his 2.28 ERA in 2008 with a 7.53 in 2009. Sure, he's talented, but at some point Samardzija is going to have to come up with something more than a big fastball and a passing resemblance to Andy Samberg if he wants to succeed at the major league level.

Needs

Any discussion of the Chicago Cubs' offseason has to begin with the outfield, where they badly need to figure things out. Milton Bradley wasn't a bad player for them in 2009; on the contrary, he was probably still their best outfielder, but all signs point to him being dealt this offseason, and I'm not sure I can blame the Cubs. As much as Bradley wasn't the problem with the team this year, I just don't know if his relationship with the fans, not to mention his teammates, is a tenable one.

If Bradley is dealt, the Cubs will have to come up with someone to try and replicate his offensive contributions, and several names have been floated. Rick Ankiel was thought to be their first choice until fairly recently, but things seem to have cooled slightly on that front since Scott Boras made his comments about multiple years and big dollars for Swingin' Dick's services. The Cubs don't seem to have much interest in Matt Holliday, perhaps being a bit gun shy after witnessing how horribly wrong a seven-year deal for an outfielder can go. They also haven't been mentioned all that much in the Jason Bay sweepstakes, so I have to assume they're looking at lower-hanging fruit.

Beyond the outfield, it's somewhat doubtful the Cubs will be able to make any substantial upgrades to their offense. Both corner infield positions are set, and rightfully so. Soto will be looking for a bounceback season; it's far too early to write him off as a one-year wonder. The only spots the Cubs could look to upgrade are the middle infield positions, but I'm not sure how much help is really available at those spots this offseason. Perhaps the Cubbies get involved in trying to trade for Dan Uggla? They do have an exciting young middle infield prospect in the pipeline named Starlin Castro, who has garnered plenty of comparisons to Edgar Renteria, and could draw interest from Florida, but little beyond that.

The bullpen has to be an area of concern, and priority one has to be sorting out who will at least begin the season as the Chicago closer. Marmol, I'm sure, will have the inside track on the job, but after his 2009 performance it shouldn't be a foregone conclusion. I doubt the Cubs will go outside the organisation to find a stopper, but it's likely they'll try to acquire at least an arm or two to bolster the overall depth of the 'pen.

Priorities

Deal with Milton Bradley situation. Trade is most likely outcome.
Acquire offensive upgrade to replace Bradley's production. Left-handed hitter would be desirable.
Shore up bullpen, likely through trades. (Bradley?)
Look at other possible offensive upgrades, i.e. Uggla or Mark DeRosa as utility player.
Acquire 5th starter/ insurance arm for Ted Lilly.
???
World Series title.

The Bottom Line

The Cubs are by no means in dire straights. They underachieved badly last season, but the offense should receive a boost from a full season from Ramirez and, hopefully, better years from Soriano, Soto, and Lee. The same can't really be said for the pitching, which performed right about where one would expect, given the talent level. The starting rotation will remain their biggest strength, while the bullpen remains somewhat suspect.

At this point, the Cubs have to be considered the Cards' main competition for the division again in 2009. Both teams are clearly a step or two ahead of the pack.

There you go, folks. One in the can, four to go.

The Baron's Playlist for the 11th of December, 2009

"The Blizzard" - Camera Obscura A cover of the Jim Reeves/ Johnny Cash classic. Any CO fans out there (and I know there are some), you might want to check out their holiday 7" release, with the Blizzard backed by Swans.

"My Wife and My Dead Wife" - Robyn Hitchcock and the Egyptians

"Oh You Pretty Things" - Peter Noone I just heard this on Pop! The Beat Bubble Bursts yesterday morning, and I can't stop listening to it. It's a Bowie cover by the former Herman's Hermits frontman, and it has a bit of an early Harry Nilsson vibe to it. Really great.

"Intermezzo Sinfonico" from Mascagni's Cavalleria Rusticana - James Levine

"Take On Me" - A.C. Newman Another tip of the hat to KDHX, this time to Nick Acquisto and the Space Parlour. Outstanding cover of the A-Ha classic.

Edit: And, of course, on the day I write this, some actual news comes down the pipeline, as the Cardinals have now apparently made an official offer to Scott Boras and Matt Holliday. Sigh. They couldn't have waited just one more day? Really?

Around the Mission: Everybody wants Kevin Kouzmanoff Edition

Dex — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:41:30 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

No joke. The Yankees just offered me a player to be named later in exchange for this photo of Kevin "Everybody Wants" Kouzmanoff.(AP Photo/Ben Margot)

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In links today, everybody is interested in Kevin Kouzmanoff. I mean bad. They want him so bad. And by "everybody", I mean kdukat and what's left of the Gaslamp Ball Girls. Hahahahaha...

No, I'm just kidding. Everybody wants Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Winter Meetings Rumor Update
Would a Geovany Soto-Heath Bell deal make sense for both sides? We check in with CBSSports.com’s Scott Miller from Indianapolis for the latest rumors on the Padres, Bell, Adrian Gonzalez, Milton Bradley, the Angels, Roy Halladay, Vlad, and more
Several clubs interested in Kouzmanoff | padres.com: News
Kevin Kouzmanoff, one of four prominent Padres who are eligible for arbitration and due a substantial raise, has apparently drawn the interest of several teams at the Winter Meetings.
Padres 3rd baseman Kouzmanoff creating a buzz - Sports - SignOnSanDiego.com
"We’re in fine shape financially at this point," he said. "Any moves will be made to try to make the team better."
The Schmuck Stops Here: Orioles: The third man - Some say it’s better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than open it and remove all doubt. I disagree. - baltimoresun.com
the Orioles also have expressed interest in San Diego Padres third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff
Correia’s days may be numbered - Sports - SignOnSanDiego.com
“They made an offer to me, but it was obviously below the arbitration value,” said Correia. “I could still end up playing here. And this is where I want to play. The door is not closed.”
PADRES: Club talks Correia, Kouzmanoff at winter meetings
"Nothing's final, but we're in the process of talking about a deal," Axelrod said by phone. "The proposal was not jumped at, but we'll talk again. ... Kevin's choice is to stay in San Diego for a variety of reasons. The only reason (he'd leave) would be if he was not compensated appropriately."

Cubs close to deal with Mike Cameron?

Eli Greenspan — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 18:37:48 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

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The Chicago Sun-Times is reporting that the Cubs' top option for center field is free agent Mike Cameron. Piniella and Cameron have history going back to their time in Seattle together, and there is believed to be mutual interest in a reunion.

''I love the guy,'' Piniella said Friday night in Cincinnati during a reunion event for the 1990 World Series champions at the annual Redsfest. ''Mike is somebody we've talked about. I'm looking forward to Sunday, [when team officials meet before] the meetings over in Indianapolis.''

However, the Cubs need to unload Milton Bradley first, and are hoping to move him before the Winter Meetings kick off on Monday. That way, there will be enough money to ink Cameron.

Cameron would give the Cubs an option in the two spot or in the five spot, based upon where he hit last year. He strikes out a lot, but he gives the Cubs another run producer who has a great feel for the outfield. His addition would push Kosuke Fukudome back to right field.

A Cubs lineup with Cameron would look something like this:

Mike Cameron

Kosuke Fukudome

Jeff Baker/Mike Fontenot

A pretty dangerous lineup on paper if guys like Soto and Soriano can return to form. Sources say the Cubs are not exploring the second base market, but guys like Felipe Lopez are still available.

The team is also looking at outfielder Marlon Byrd.

Discussion: Marlon Byrd vs. Mike Cameron

Al — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 14:49:09 -0000

More photos » by Luis Alvarez - AP

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Yesterday, I posted an idea regarding a potential free agent signing for a Cubs bench position in 2010. Admittedly, this wasn't the most important possible addition to the roster for next year -- however, the Cubs had a very poor bench in 2009 and I still think Chad Tracy (at the right price) would be a good addition.

Today, I'm going to analyze two players who have been mentioned as possible center fielders for the Cubs in 2010. Again, for the purposes of this exercise, assume that Milton Bradley has already been traded somewhere and not for another outfielder; that Kosuke Fukudome will be returned to right field, and that the Tigers' Curtis Granderson (who would be my first choice) is either not made available for trade by Detroit or has been dealt somewhere else.

So, let's look at two other choices -- Marlon Byrd and Mike Cameron.

Marlon Byrd has played eight seasons in the major leagues with three teams (the Phillies, the Nationals and the Rangers). He was the Phillies' regular center fielder in 2003, his rookie season; he played well enough to finish fourth in Rookie of the Year voting (behind Dontrelle Willis, Scott Podsednik and Brandon Webb). Declining quickly in his second year, he found himself dumped to the Nats, and signed with the Rangers as a free agent after the 2006 season. He never got full-time playing time again until last year, when he put up a very good .283/.329/.479 year with a career-high 20 HR and 89 RBI, numbers he hadn't come close to previously. His .808 OPS was in the same general area as his other two part-time seasons in Texas; overall he hit .295/.352/.468 (.820 OPS) in his three years as a Ranger.

Further, he seems to have been helped by Rangers Ballpark -- he posted an OPS over 100 points higher at home in each of his three seasons in Texas, although his career OPS is also higher at home (.810) than on the road (.716).

Byrd is 32. He will be 33 in August. His 2009 season appears to be an outlier in terms of power (his 43 doubles tied for 8th in the AL) and these are just the types of numbers that Jim Hendry often gets sucked into giving a three-year backloaded contract to. I'd stay away from Byrd.

With Mike Cameron, you know exactly what you're getting. He will be 37 in January, and over the 11 seasons since he became a fulltime regular in 1999 (not counting the two years prior to that when he had fewer than 500 PA for the White Sox), his OPS has ranged from .759 to .837. He's averaged 22 HR, 75 RBI, 66 walks and 143 strikeouts over those 11 seasons -- and his 2009 season was pretty close to that (24 HR, 70 RBI, 75 BB, 156 K).

At 37, he might have to be rested from time to time and for that, the Cubs have Sam Fuld. In a lineup that has Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and (presumably) a healthy and 2008-style Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto, Cameron could hit sixth or seventh, as he did in Milwaukee, and produce the same way he did there. In 138 career PA at Wrigley Field, Cameron has hit .261/.355/.521 with 8 HR, and hits .257/.349/.454 in day games.

At 37 -- well, you wouldn't want to give a longterm deal to a guy like that. But a one-year contract with a mutual option for a second year based on incentives -- I'd do that. Cameron is also familiar to Lou Piniella, who managed him for three years in Seattle -- two of those years the Mariners went to the postseason.

Mike Cameron isn't my first choice; as I wrote last week, that would be Curtis Granderson. But -- if Granderson isn't available, Cameron would be a good second pick.

2009 SBN Baseball Awards - NL Rookie Of The Year.

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:12:00 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Is Andrew McCutchen the SB Nation's '09 NL Rookie of the Year? (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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In 2008, the voting members of the SB Nation's baseball sites elected Cubs' catcher Geovany Soto as the NL Rookie of the year after the then-25-year-old catcher had hit .285 with 35 doubles, 23 HR's and 86 RBI's in 141 games behind the plate in Chicago. The only other player to receive a 1st place vote last season was Braves' right-hander Jair Jurrjens, who finished his rookie campaign with a (13-10) record, a 3.68 ERA, 139 K's, (6.4 K/9) and a 1.37 WHIP in 31 starts and 188.1 IP, but Jurrjens finished 3rd overall in the voting behind the Reds' Joey Votto, whose 10 2nd place votes allowed him to take second overall, but made him a distant runner-up to the SB Nation's top choice. Over a week later, the Baseball Writers Association of America awarded their NL Rookie of the Year Award to the same Cubs' catcher, with Votto and Jurrjens finishing second and third...

Who will the SB Nation's Baseball writers pick as the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year? The answer is only a jump away...but before you click through, register your own choice for ROY in the Poll below...

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tommy Hanson	Atlanta Braves	9	9	6	78
2	J.A. Happ	Philadelphia Phillies	6	9	7	64
3	Andrew McCutchen	Pittsburgh Pirates	8	3	5	54
4	Chris Coghlan	Florida Marlins	7	5	4	54
5	Dexter Fowler	Colorado Rockies	-	3	1	10
6	Randy Wells	Chicago Cubs	-	-	6	6
7	Garrett Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates	1	-	-	5
8	Casey McGehee	Milwaukee Brewers	-	1	2	5
9	Seth Smith	Colorado Rockies	-	1	-	3

• Atlanta Braves' right-hander Tommy Hanson ended 2008 by winning the Arizona Fall League's MVP award, (the first time a pitcher in the hitter-friendly league had done so), and though he started the '09 season in the minors he was up by June and able to win 11 of the 21 starts he made, going (11-4) and allowing just 41 ER in 127.2 IP for a 2.89 ERA with 116 K's (8.2 K/9) and a 1.18 WHIP. (ed. note - "When's the first Strasburg v Hanson matchup?")

• J.A. Happ finished the 2009 season with 2 appearances in the World Series for the Phillies, giving up a run on 2 hits in 2.2 IP against the eventual-"World Champion" Yankees. In 23 starts and 35 overall appearances during the regular season, Happ was (12-3) with a 2.93 ERA, 3 complete games, 2 shutouts and a 1.23 WHIP in 166.0 IP, in which he struck out 166 (6.5 K/9) and walked just 56 (3.0 BB/9).

• Washington, DC fans saw the best Andrew McCutchen had to offer this season, when the then-22-year-old outfielder hit 3 HR's in 5 at bats in one game at PNC Park to help Pittsburgh to an 11-6 win over the Nationals. The former 1st Round pick, taken 11th overall by the Pirates in 2005, finally arrived in the majors in early June, giving him enough time to get in 433 at bats, over which he accumulated 124 hits, (26 doubles, 9 triples, 12 HR's), for a .286 AVG with a .365 OBP, .471 SLG, .836 OPS, (122 OPS+), 22 steals and 54 RBI's.

?'s For The DC Faithful...

• Would Jordan Zimmermann have competed for the ROY award if he'd been able to go all season?

• Is Strasburg a lock for next year's award?

• Did I give Chris Coghlan too much credit with a third-place vote because of what he was able to do against the Nationals? Clearly, I wasn't the only one he impressed, but I wonder if the Marlins' early dominance of DC influenced my decision?

• Will the Pirates' OF of Lastings Milledge, McCutchen and (Jose Tabata?) be the envy of the NL in a few seasons? Did I tell you what Former DC GM Jim Bowden said about Milledge? No? Eh, some other time....

• Strasburg v Hanson Pt. 1? Who's going to miss that?

Poll

Who is your 2009 NL Rookie of the Year?

Tommy Hanson (ATL)

41 votes

Andrew McCutchen (PIT)

25 votes

J.A. Happ (PHI)

22 votes

Dexter Fowler (COL)

1 votes

Chris Coghlan (FLA)

24 votes

113 votes | Poll has closed

MLB Trade Rumors: On the Beat with John Perrotto Version

raygu — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:00:37 -0000

by Eric Risberg - AP

3 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Chad Billingsley takes a break on the mound after the San Francisco Giants scored their third run in the fourth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009. San Francisco won the game 7-2; Billingsley was the losing pitcher. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

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Every Sunday, John Perrotto from Baseball Prospectus puts out an article talking about possible trade rumors and signings, along with analysis of the goings on around baseball. Yesterday's article was chock full of names who could be available in trade talks this offseason, with some suprise names.

Let's take a look after the jump:

Here is a list of names who could be available in trade talks per Perrotto:

Chad Billingsley Kerry Wood

Dave Bush Bobby Jenks

Jeremy Guthrie Pat Burrell

Adrian Gonzalez Nelson Cruz

Heath Bell Ryan Ludwick

Glen Perkins Dan Uggla

Kenshin Kawakami Juan Pierre

Derek Lowe Ryan Doumit

Javier Vazquez Dioner Navarro

Carlos Zambrano Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Matt Capps Geovany Soto

Christian Guzman Elijah Dukes

Corey Hart David Dejesus

Poll

What name on the Perrotto list is most surprising?

Ryan Ludwick

39 votes

Geovany Soto

61 votes

Chad Billingsley

116 votes

Ryan Doumit

17 votes

233 votes | Poll has closed

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

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Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

Bill James Handbook 2010 Projections

Al — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:11:01 -0000

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Will Magglio Ordonez be a Cub in 2010?

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With a day off before game six of the ALCS -- and this series has the chance to go down in history as one of the better league championship series, having already produced at least three "instant classics", let's spend today looking toward next year.

As most of you probably already know, ACTA Sports publishes, each year, the Bill James Handbook, which in addition to having complete stats for all players active in 2009, publishes projections for the following season based on a projection system that they are continually tweaking to attempt to make it as accurate as possible.

The good folks at ACTA sent me an advance copy of the projection pages from the handbook, in which Bill James first runs down the projections they did for 2009; some of them were missed badly (mostly due to injury -- Eric Chavez and Troy Glaus, for example), others (Mark Teixeira, Orlando Hudson and Evan Longoria are the examples they give) were pretty darn close. They projected Mike Fontenot to have 9 HR and 43 RBI -- exactly what he did have, except they thought he'd hit .288, instead of the .236 he actually hit. For Geovany Soto, they missed badly -- the James system had him at .289, with a .499 SLG, 35 doubles, 23 HR and 89 RBI. I think you can imagine how much better the Cubs' season would have been if they had been right about Geo.

Continue after the jump to find some of their projections for 2010. I'm not only going to post a few of the projections for Cubs players that they sent me, but also some projections for some of the possible acquisitions we have discussed here at BCB, mainly some of the hitters that have been talked about in potential Milton Bradley deals. (Note: doing this doesn't mean I'm endorsing any particular acquisition, simply posting some numbers for players we've speculated about.)

Let's start with a few players we know are going to be Cubs in 2010:

Derrek Lee: .291/.378/.516, 40 doubles, 30 HR, 98 RBI, 94 runs
Aramis Ramirez: .292/.364/.514, 32 doubles, 26 HR, 97 RBI, 76 runs
Alfonso Soriano: .263/.320/.487, 35 doubles, 30 HR, 77 RBI, 85 runs
Kosuke Fukudome: .265/.365/.427, 39 doubles, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 76 runs
Geovany Soto: .273/.361/.469, 31 doubles, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 58 runs

Well. If those come true, the Cubs will score a ton of runs in 2010; that's 389 runs from just five players. Now, some of the starting rotation -- acknowledging, as James points out, that pitcher projections are done very differently than hitter projections due to the nature of pitching statistics:

Carlos Zambrano: 29 starts, 180 IP, 80 BB, 151 K, 12-8, 3.60
Ryan Dempster: 30 starts, 195 IP, 81 BB, 167 K, 12-10, 3.83
Ted Lilly: 25 starts, 170 IP, 56 BB, 144 K, 11-8, 3.76
Randy Wells: 30 starts, 188 IP, 60 BB, 147 K, 10-10, 4.16 
Carlos Marmol: 74 games, 73 IP, 45 BB, 84 K, 5-3, 3.45, 34 saves

And, apparently, give up a ton of runs and finish barely over .500. For some reason, they also project Wells to have 14 HBP and 19 other major league pitchers to have 15 or more -- that seems way off, considering that only one pitcher (Dave Bush) had 15 in 2009 and that Wells himself had only 6 HBP in the season just ended.

Now, here are some projections for some -- not all -- of the players we have discussed here as possible 2010 new Cubs, enough to get some discussion going:

Magglio Ordonez: .311/.376/.476, 32 doubles, 17 HR, 84 RBI, 70 runs
Curtis Granderson: .275/.353/.491, 30 doubles, 11 triples, 27 HR, 76 RBI, 106 runs, 17 SB
Michael Young: .299/.352/.443, 37 doubles, 16 HR, 80 RBI, 88 runs
Vernon Wells: .271/.327/.443, 33 doubles, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 77 runs
Aaron Rowand: .267/.327/.423, 37 doubles, 17 HR, 72 RBI, 74 runs
Carlos Beltran: .282/.375/.490, 33 doubles, 24 HR, 91 RBI, 92 runs
Mark DeRosa: .260/.335/.418, 27 doubles, 17 HR, 71 RBI, 76 runs

And, because you'll ask:

Milton Bradley: .276/.384/.450, 25 doubles, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 74 runs

James' system projects Bradley to play 133 games and have 467 AB; both of those would be the second-highest totals of his career. Note also that (presumably) the projections for players who the Cubs might acquire are based on their current home parks; playing with Wrigley Field as their home park would likely result in different projections.

There are complete projections in the book, which is available November 1 and which you can pre-order at the link at the top of this post -- we can discuss whatever players you want in this post, but I'm not going to spend a lot of time typing out projections for others, so don't ask. Full disclosure: ACTA Sports is sending me a copy of the book.

Living in the Limelight: Gregg Zaun's Free Agent Value

devil_fingers — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 17:27:28 -0000

More photos » by Richard Drew - AP

I'm having a hard time locating your Z-Game, Wes.

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I'm worn out. I don't have anything to add to the playoff discussion, and it's still weeks until baseball-databank, etc. are ready to make things available. I have other stuff in the pipeline, but for now, in honor of his awesome Rogers Sports Net commentaries on the playoffs (and since we have some catcher defense numbers to go on for 2009), let's take a look at the potential free agent value of one of my favorite players (and I suspect he's a favorite of many others): Gregg Zaun. Are you ready to bring your Z-Game?

Gregg Zaun

#9 / Catcher / Tampa Bay Rays

Height: 5-10

Weight: 205

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Apr 14, 1971

I'm not sure what the market is like for catcher this offseason, but it seems like every year, guys like Paul Bako and Jose Molina get jobs. You know, guys who can't hit a lick, but have a reputation as "good glove men" or allegedly can "calls a good name," things which always seem to attach to catchers that...can't hit. While its true that defense is very important, and that catcher defense is hard to quantify, this might be a case where many clubs don't realize that their catcher also has to hit, and moreover, that even without injuries to their starter, that the backup is going to see significant time. Only four catchers started more than 130+ games this season at the position, and only 8 started 120+. So having a decent backup at the position is arguably more important there than at any other position, since you pretty much know that your start isn't going to be available for at least 40 games at that position, even if he's healthy.

Gregg Zaun, of course, became famously known years ago as the Practically Perfect Backup Catcher©. But, as the inventors of this notions discovered, given the general hitting ability (or lack thereof) among catcher, Zaun was actually a pretty decent starter. This ways years ago... Zaun is now advanced in age, and seems destined for a series of one-year contracts. But what is is true talent level?

Hitting: Zaun's not a horrible. He's not what he used to be, of course, but a .344 career OBP is nothing to sneeze at, especially from a catcher. What do we think his true wOBA talent is at the moment? From 2006-2009 his wOBAs have been .351, .324, .316, and .344. Adjusting for age, taking a weighted average and regressing to a league average (weighted by year and PA) wOBA of .330, we get a true talent level of a .325 wOBA, or about -2 runs (2 runs below average) per 700 PA.

Fielding: Catcher fielding is tough to quantify. For 2009, I've used my own numbers cited above. For 2005-2008 I've used Rally's numbers, prorated. I've then combined then with the Fans Scouting Report, and given a bit more weight to the FSR then I usually do, to take into account the problematic nature of the statistics. Zaun wasn't bad this season, being a bit above average, although Rally has him as being around 6-7 runs below average (prorated) in each season 2005-2008. The Fans are harder on him -- my translations have him as. -1.5 this season, -8 in 2008, -9 in 2007, and -4 in 2006. With regression of the numbers and the FSR combined, he seems like a -4 defender per 162 games.

Adding it all together: -2 hitting -4 fielding +12.5 positoin +25 AL replacement level * .75 playing time = 23 WAR - 0.5 aging penalty = 1.8 WAR player in 2010.

Not bad at all, considering Zaun made only $2M this pas season, and seems unlikely to get a raise. If, as usual, guys like Zaun go for cheap, some team is going to get a good deal on a part-time catcher who's defense isn't great (but isn't dreadful) and can get on-base. Not a bad backup for, say, Matt Wieters, huh?

They can't all be Joe Mauer, Geovany Soto, Victor Martinez, or even Yadier Molina. But they don't all have to be Miguel Olivo or Jason Varitek or even Rod Barajas, either. Let's see who's smart.