SB Nation - Rich Hill

The Great General Manager Debate: NL Central Edition

davoag — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

The trade that made me lose faith in the Pirates suckitude...

Part of my reaction to the Aki Iwamura trade was realizing how surprisingly competent the Pirates front office has become. They picked up a cost-controlled player for a replaceable part and improved their infield defense in the process. How is that a bad thing?

The funny thing is, the Pirates have been bad for so long, and it's so easy to dismiss their hires as actually being good baseball people, I had forgotten what Pittsburgh was actually getting in Neil Huntington. Here's another post from FanGraphs about what this trade means for the Pirates executives and here's an interview with Dan Fox, their database guru. Basically, the Pirates have a guy that gets to play with computer simulations all day until he can accurately evaluate and forecast players. I can get that job how?

It also made me start thinking about all the general managers in the National League Central. Which ones was I most afraid of? Which ones were a joke? Were there any teams that were run competently from year to year?

The thing that surprised me when I did my research was not that Ed Wade is probably the weakest GM in the Central, it's that so many of them have changed in the past two seasons. Justice loves to harp on how the organizational chaos Houston has gone through is affecting the club in many ways. Still, to see that so many of Wade's peers have also changed jobs recently is refreshing.

It's also scary, especially when at least four of these guys are competent-to-really good. After the jump is a look at each GM. Feel free to share your thoughts on who worries you the most in the comments...

Chicago Cubs

GM Jim Hendry

Tenure: Since July, 2002 ( 7 1/2 seasons)

Notes: The longest tenured general manager also has the biggest payroll of any team in the division. What does he do with all that money? Waste it. As scary as the Cubs lineup and rotation can be, Hendry alone makes me feel good about the Astros chances against Chicago in the near future.

This was a man who overpaid for guys like LaTroy Hawkins and Ted Lilly (though, to be fair, Lilly was excellent). He also spent a ton of money for Alfonso Soriano to play center field, and then promptly bumped him to left. Then, he spent a ton of money to bring in notorious pot-stirrer Milton Bradley, adding to the dangerous clubhouse dynamic that Lou Piniella always brings.

Funny thing, though, 134 million can buy you a damned good team. Hendry may have made mistakes in the past, but has done a good job of at least correcting them. He admitted failure with Rich Hill, shipping him off to Baltimore. He did turn Ryan Dempster into an effective pitcher in his new role with the Cubs. Hendry also has a productive farm system, with guys like Carlos Marmol and Geovanny Soto picking up the team on the cheap.

Would Hendry be this good without all that money? Probably not. In his market, though, it's tough not to make a big splash each season and have the fans be happy. Of all the GMs, though, I'm least afraid of Hendry.

Cincinnati Reds

GM Walt Jocketty

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.

The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot.

Milwaukee Brewers

GM Doug Melvin

Tenure: Since September 2002 (7 seasons)

Notes: One of the two longest tenured GMs in the NL Central, Melvin has had an up-and-down career in Milwaukee. Yes, he did draft Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder. Yes, he did trade for CC Sabathia. But, what have the Brewers actually won? This team seems to consistenly play for second place, which isn't bad, but until they can get over the hump mentally, Melvin may not be viewed more positively.

All indications are that Melvin is a more traditional GM. The Brewers don't leap out at you as a very sabermetric-friendly team, but they do have a little bit of the Oakland A's philosophy for a small market. The Brewers under Melvin consistently make unpopular decisions with players to avoid locking them up to bad contracts that hurt the team. Instead, they'll buy out arbitration years for a player, insuring cost certainty and rewarding young guys before they may be overpaid. Exhibit one is Ryan Braun.

Certainly, the biggest deficiency with the club is starting pitching. Melvin has shown a knack for making big moves (CC), regardless of his position as a small market team. He's also done a good job of drafting by talent and not positional needs (Matt LaPorta, anyone?). The obvious plus side of this is Melvin can then trade for pitching with his talent surplus. It will be interesting to see if Melvin can keep the pipeline going for the Brewers and tinker around the edges enough to get a winner.

Pittsburgh Pirates

GM Neil Huntington

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: Here is the crux of my argument. The Pirates are without a doubt the worst-run franchise in the National League. For years, they have been incompetent, both in the draft, in trades and in fielding winning ball clubs. Who can forget Randall Simon viciously attacking that poor Bratwurst in Milwaukee? Just horrible. Still, Huntington has done a great job of reversing this trend. He correctly indentified assets that were expendible, seems to have valued his minor leaguers correctly and his only big misstep so far has been the Bay trade. The big deal with the Yankees netted the Buccos a solid starter in Ross Ohlendorff and a young outfielder in Jose Tabata (who hasn't panned out). The Bay deal saw an iffy Andy LaRoche, a reliever (Craig Hanson) and a fourth or fifth outfielder (Brandon Moss) traded for one of the best left fielders in baseball.

Of course, if the Pirates had let Bay walk after the season like the Red Sox have, they'd be roundly criticized. The organization seems to be headed in the right direction. Count me as still skeptical, though, even with present evidence to the contrary.

St. Louis Cardinals

GM John Mozeliak

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: Mozeliak took over a team that didn't have much to work with outside of a couple big money players (Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter) and a ton of farm talent. He's tinkered around the edges well and leaned heavily on his manager and pitching coach's reputations to slot in marginal guys into productive roles. Mozeliak stuck by Colby Rasmus through early slumps and made a big-ticket acquisition of Matt Holliday.

There are conflicting reports about his style, but it seems like he appreciates what the stats can tell him about the game and uses it to some degree. Yet, his philosophy seems to be grating on the older school ideas of Tony LaRussa. Combine that with his cold-blooded trade of Dave Duncan's son, Chris, and he's done quite a bit to alienate two of the most important cogs to the Cardinals machine for the past decade. Not that I'm complaining.

There are both good and bad qualities here, but I don't think we can judge Mozeliak fairly until he's out from under LaRussa's considerable shadow (the man's a genius, after all).

Houston Astros

GM Ed Wade

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: So, the thing about Ed Wade is he can't trade. I said some nice things in the past about the job he did leading up to this past season, but after reviewing his track record in Philly, I have a suggestion. Ed Wade needs to hire some smart, baseball-savvy mind to be his trade manager. Like a salary-cap manager in football, this person would handle all the ramifications of trades (scouting players, balance, contracts, etc.) and give his best recommendation to Wade. Only then could the big man sign off.

If you think I exaggerate, look at his transactions. Here's a link to Baseball-Reference's transaction page starting in 1998. Wade took over in January of that year. In his entire Philly tenure, he made two good trades: Billy Wagner and Kenny Lofton. Every other trade he made was a bloodbath. Eric Milton? He gave up Nick Punto and Carlos Silva. Scott Rolen? He got Placido Polanco and that's it. He traded Curt Schilling for nothing. He traded away a young Adam Eaton for a declining Andy Ashby. He traded two young pitchers for two relievers and Ron Gant. Who thought this was a good idea? In fact, Wade's history is chock-full of trades for relievers. It's the position he enjoys tinkering with most on the team. Unfortunately, relievers are fungible, and trading for them wastes cheap assets.

Thus, why I had the idea of a trade manager. I'm sure someone like Paul DiPodesta or Kevin Towers wouldn't mind being the Astros full-time trade scout, right? Either one would be imminently more qualified than Wade to make these kinds of decisions. And yes, I realize that Wade has made some decent trades with the Astros. Sticking to the numbers, though? That streak may not last forever.

What should the Astros do with their shoe string budget?

DyingQuail — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:16:28 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

Rich Hill is definitely my pick for sexy-under-the-radar reclamation project. He still has a few prime years in his tank and is a major head case, it seems. From we know of Arnsberg, that's right in his wheelhouse.

Browse more photos »

The title is somewhat facetious. The Astros are guaranteed to spend around $80 million, as is, heading into 2010, but there should be another $10-15 million to allocate to filling the gaps. So where should Ed Wade and co. be focusing on allocating it?

In my mind, there are few options:

Find someone for 3rd base. Geoff Blum isn't getting any younger and Chris Johnson isn't getting any better at getting on base. Jeff Keppinger was great as a platoon there, but I think we can find a better option. This option could include re-signing Tejada and slotting him at 3rd, but I doubt that happens in the wake of the Blum re-signing. If we really wanted to go for it: Chone Figgins (probably a multi-year deal with at least $7-8 million on the table each year).
Sign LaTroy Hawkins back to have a strong depth for the likely closer by committee situation I can feel building. There are a few former closers who carry the label to which I'm sure Ed Wade is keen, and my Interesting rehab-esque-project of the bunch is Billy Wagner.
Sign a top-teir reclamation project for Arnsberg to get behind. Ben Sheets or Justin Duchscherer are probably the cream of that crop. Both are coming off years where they were DLed and in all honesty I don't know the exact status of either of the two, but if they could log 100-120IP for us in 2010 just think of the marginal gain. That's replacing Hampton or Ortiz' production for probably not a whole lot more in guaranteed money. Neither of those two are looking for multi-year deals. Instead, they're looking for a chance to audition for a year and then jump into the big deals they seemed primed for in 2008. My under the radar choice for Arnsberg to ply his trade with: Rich Hill (see photo caption for explanation...for the one other than LHP hominid).
Convince Drayton McLane that if he wants a decent on-field product, he's probably going to accept spending in the red. I don't think this is a hard argument to win. There's little to no fan excitement with this team—especially after a 10-22 last month-ish of the season. Unemployment is still up and while other macro-economic indicators are improved, they're not game changing. The odds that attendance collapses further if Drayton doesn't do something to generate excitement is roughly the equivalent of the odds that Drew Brees beats Jake Delhomme in TD passes this season. So the options Drayton has seem to be: lose money by nothing nothing, or spend just a little bit more money and increase your odds that you don't lose revenue.

If four were to happen, I could easily see us accomplish two and three. But I don't know how many different ways you can combine the options with the shoe string budget that rounds out payroll. Thus, the crux of our offseason seems to be what will the Astros brass deem our most important short coming as a baseball club. My hope is that they realize they likely have to pay a lot of attention to option three.

My in a perfect world of realitic limitations off season goes like this:

Rich Hill signs for no more than $3 million.
Hawkins re-signed, or some equivalent former closer for no more than $5 million. Wagner would be a sexy choice.
Bobby Crosby gets a crack at 3rd base for $5-6 million.

That's $13-14 million and I think it plugs some major holes. While still leaving some wiggle room for our "that guy still plays baseball?" corps of bench guys that Ed Wade plucks from the nether-regions of baseball.

Those are just my ideas, though. What say you?

Ten Lessons Jim Hendry Needs To Learn From The 2009 Season

Al — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 13:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Example of a player Jim Hendry should not sign to an overpriced, multiyear contract.

Browse more photos »

I suppose this post could have waited till next week, but once again we are faced with more than 48 hours between games -- for the last time in 2009 -- and so I thought I'd start some discussion this morning with these things that I think were done poorly by Cubs GM Jim Hendry since the end of the 2008 season.

Hendry got a three-year contract extension (through the 2012 season) after last year's successful regular season, with the hope that 2009 would be even better. It didn't work out that way; Hendry had about as bad an offseason last year as any GM in recent memory, but with new ownership poised to take over, it isn't the right time to blow everything up and start over. Hendry will be given at least one more year to get things back on the track we thought the Cubs were on during their two-year run as NL Central champions in 2007 and 2008.

Some of the problems with the 2009 Cubs were not Hendry's fault and many of them were beyond his control. It's not Hendry's fault that Aramis Ramirez dislocated his shoulder four weeks into the season and missed a total of 75 games (through yesterday). A-Ram produced above his usual level (.906 OPS, compared to his career level of .847) and I think we all agree that the Cubs missed his production in the two months he was out from mid-May to mid-July, not to mention that he wasn't at full strength on his return. To have produced the way he did after the All-Star break -- without complaining -- is a credit to Ramirez's work ethic and ability. It's not Hendry's fault that Alfonso Soriano played most of the year injured, though he perhaps could have insisted harder that Soriano have arthroscopic surgery in June, and maybe he'd have been ready in September. It's not Hendry's fault that all the Opening Day rotation starters spent time on the disabled list, forcing the Cubs to have 21 starts made by guys (Sean Marshall, Kevin Hart, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Samardzija) whose performance can best be called "uneven". (The Cubs were 9-12 in those 21 games.)

Credit where credit is due: give Jim credit for recognizing that Randy Wells could help the team as a starter, though I don't think anyone could have guessed he'd be as good as he has been. Credit for giving Koyie Hill the backup catcher job; he's been very good in that role. And credit for getting John Grabow and Gorzelanny for, essentially, nothing; Grabow will likely be retained as a key part of the 2010 bullpen and Gorzelanny, though his performance has been up and down, does have talent and will be in the mix for the 2010 rotation.

With that in mind, below the fold you'll find ten ideas Hendry must internalize and go by as he builds a roster for 2010. (Not necessarily in priority order.)

1. Stop fixing "problems" that do not exist. I think this is one we can all agree on; the troubles with the 2009 Cubs began with the decision made at the organizational meetings last fall that "we're not lefthanded enough", a mantra particularly of Lou Piniella's, due to the Dodgers' RHP-centric pitching staff in the 2008 NLDS. The Cubs didn't lose that series because of a lack of LH batters, but since Lou (and the rest of the staff) thought that was the reason, they went out of their way to identify a "lefthanded, middle-of-the-order bat" that they could insert behind Derrek Lee and ahead of Ramirez. We are all familiar with the expensive disaster that produced so I won't rehash it here. I caution Hendry about this because they are about to do the same thing -- fix a nonexistent problem. "We need a speedy leadoff man", goes the managerial mantra. Well, no, Lou, you don't. A leadoff man's primary job is to get on base. You already have someone who can lead off and do that -- Kosuke Fukudome, who ranks 8th in the NL in walks, despite having almost 100 fewer plate appearances than the leader (Albert Pujols). The Cubs are 22-13 with Fukudome leading off this year (that's a 101-win pace for a full season). The last time Hendry went after this type of player, he traded three useful minor leaguers for Juan Pierre. Jim -- do not get sucked into this trap again.

2. Stop bidding against yourself for players. The first argument against this, you might think, is "Jason Marquis", but Marquis did what he was asked to do -- if the Cubs had kept him this year and he had produced the way he did in Colorado, the Cubs would have gotten fine 4th or 5th starter value for the $7 million a year average per year over the life of Marquis' contract. True, Hendry could have likely had Marquis for less, since no one else had expressed interest at the time. And you can't make the argument "Alfonso Soriano" about this, either, because Soriano had been offered six-plus years by the Phillies and seven by the Angels; the Cubs were determined at the time to make a statement in the free agent market. Soriano was the top free agent after 2006, and yes, the Cubs overpaid to get him. He may still be healthy and productive enough to be worth the deal, at least for the next 2-3 years. (Heaven help the Cubs in years 7 and 8, though.) No, what I'm talking about is paying $30 million for three years' worth of the iffy Milton Bradley when absolutely no other team was even after Bradley, much less offering three years. Or giving a two-year contract to Aaron Miles for any amount of money, when we now know there was at least one option (Andres Blanco) right in the Cubs' own farm system who could have done a better job for the league minimum. Advice to Jim: when you're thinking about doing this, don't. Just don't.

3. Stop giving out contracts that are longer than they need to be. Related to the last point, there was no need to give Marquis a three-year deal; two plus a mutual option would have likely done it, and then if the Cubs really did want to deal him last year, they could have arranged for the other team to pick up the option (if that team wanted him badly enough) or simply decline the option and let him go to free agency. This is particularly true in the case of Marquis; the return for him (Luis Vizcaino) was worthless, because the Cubs wound up dumping him and eating the contract. The same thing applies to the Miles and Bradley deals.

4. Stop trading for guys you think are good because you liked them five years ago, or are fond of their college coach. You don't have to guess who I'm talking about here; his name is Aaron Heilman. (And several years ago, his name was Michael Barrett.) It's great for a GM to be loyal to his players, and Hendry is someone a lot of MLB players want to play for, for this very reason. But any Mets fan could have told Hendry that Heilman had lost whatever command he had last year -- you should have heard the booing for Heilman when he came in at Citi Field, louder than I think I've ever heard for any returning former player -- and though Heilman has been better the last six weeks, he still was not worth losing Felix Pie (Pie, though he went to Baltimore, essentially was part of this deal because Garrett Olson, who was acquired for Pie, was part of the deal to the Mariners for Heilman). And really, Jim, isn't it time to stop the Notre Dame-Wrigley Express? As far as I can tell, there are four active major leaguers who went to ND: Heilman, Samardzija, Craig Counsell and Brad Lidge. All of those guys have issues. Enough already.

5. Stop handing out one-year renewal deals to players like candy. Chad Gaudin didn't throw very well and had a noted off-field incident in 2008. He didn't figure to play a major role in the 2009 rotation or bullpen, yet the Cubs signed him to a $2 million deal in December to avoid arbitration. Then he stunk it up in spring training, forcing the Cubs to simply release him and eat the contract; the Padres and Yankees later got replacement-level production for the league minimum. The Cubs could have gotten this sort of production out of Justin Berg or Esmailin Caridad, as it turned out. Gaudin should have been non-tendered in December.

6. Don't waste half a year's roster spot on a Rule 5 pick that your manager isn't going to use. Maybe David Patton would have pitched better if Lou Piniella had actually used him more than once every five games. We'll never know, obviously, but Lou essentially wasted a roster spot by relegating Patton to pitching in blowouts or in long extra-inning games. The Cubs could have used an extra bench player -- since Aaron Miles was useless -- because Lou was working with what was for all practical purposes an 11-man pitching staff. Lou and Jim deserve equal blame for this one -- and I hate to say it, but BCB poster BLou was right about this one. At this point, maybe it's best for the Cubs to stay out of the Rule 5 draft for a while.

7. Do more careful evaluations of your prospects and young players to maximize their value, whether it be in the major league lineup or in trades. It's clear now that the entire organization was split on Felix Pie's progress. Two years ago, his trade value would have been a lot higher than "Garrett Olson", and of course, now it's probably far higher than that again. Hendry sold on Pie at the lowest possible point, and he and Lou together dragged down a former top prospect's trade value (they did the same with Rich Hill, who could have been dealt after the 2007 season for a pretty good return, although few would have suggested it after Hill put together such a good season). This is another reason why it's silly to have played Bobby Scales in left field for even one game. Scales is a great story and maybe he's a 25th guy on someone's roster next year -- but his trade value is close to zero. Jake Fox, on the other hand, might either be a useful spare part for the 2010 Cubs or might have some trade value, but scouts aren't going to see it if he sits on the bench, Lou. This is where a GM has to have some input with his manager, not simply let the manager dictate the roster. In general, GM's shouldn't be making out lineups -- but Hendry, in this case, could have let Lou know that Fox should have been playing (and Fox should have also been playing 3B from the day after A-Ram went down, too).

8. Don't automatically think that you have to sign expensive free agents to get better. Last offseason, rather than sign Milton Bradley, the Cubs could have approached the White Sox for Jermaine Dye. Dye could have been available by trade; at the time it appeared the White Sox were trying to dump contracts. In fact, I wrote about this possibility last November. Dye didn't have a great year, but he was at least as good as Bradley without the baggage, and with Dye having a $12 million mutual option that will almost certainly be declined by the White Sox, he might be available for not too much money and years (see points 2 and 3). There may be other players available like this -- and, in fact, Hendry almost has to use this route to be able to move Bradley's contract. Magglio Ordonez is almost certain to be on the block, and though he had a terrible season, it's possible he could rebound and he's a lifetime .308/.389/.513 hitter in Wrigley Field (relatively small sample size of 90 PA). NOTE! Do not assume that because I mentioned Ordonez, he is the ONLY player I'd go after for such a deal. He's only one example. Another such player is Luke Scott, who would have looked pretty good in a Cubs uniform in 2009, and who is likely headed for a hefty raise in arbitration. Maybe the Cubs can do that if they can trade Bradley elsewhere. The point of all this to Jim Hendry is: get creative, the way you did when you pulled off the Nomar Garciaparra deal in 2004.

9. Get "good clubhouse guys". I mean, this should be a no-brainer. Any Cubs fan who's been around even for ten years knows that the 2003 Cubs, managed by a player's manager, Dusty Baker, succeeded in part because they had strong clubhouse leaders, Eric Karros and Damian Miller. Miller and Karros were sent packing before 2004, and the 2004 Cubs, despite having more talent and ability than the 2003 version, collapsed in the final week. The acrimony there was visible in public, with players calling the press box to bitch, along with some high-profile public trouble between the team and its broadcasters. I'm not saying those were the only reasons for the success or failure of those two teams, but they clearly did have some impact, particularly with a players' manager like Baker who pretty much lets the clubhouse run itself. If there are no strong player-leaders, such a clubhouse is an "inmates running the asylum" situation and the results are predictable. Similarly, the Cubs lost strong player-leaders Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood after 2008 and added one player who reportedly was not a good clubhouse presence. NOTE! I am NOT saying that the Cubs must go out and reacquire DeRosa and Wood. However, I am saying that I believe all successful teams have players like this in their clubhouse. Hendry needs to identify some such players who can both do this and be productive in the lineup, and acquire a couple of them. Without trying to ignite the stats debate again, I believe having guys like this does matter. (Of course, they should also be good players -- that goes without saying.)

10. Think outside the box. Jim Hendry did this when he managed to dump an unproductive Todd Hundley on the Dodgers and get back two useful players in Mark Grudzielanek and Karros, without whom the Cubs might not have won the division in 2003. He did it again in 2004 when he engineered the four-team trade that got Nomar to the North Side. He needs to be creative in his thinking again this year. Don't fall prey to the "this is what's wrong with us and we are going to go fix that no matter what it costs" thinking that helped ruin the 2009 Cubs. Be ahead of the curve; that's what helped the Cardinals do so well this year. Also, this could apply to the idea that Hendry might be able to find solutions just by looking in his own system for next year (say, Andres Blanco, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad) rather than scouring the waiver wire for someone else's discards (as he did this year with the Aaron's).

There may be more lessons than just these ten, but going by these simple precepts might help Jim Hendry build a 2010 Cubs team that will once again be the favorite to win the NL Central -- and this time, actually do it.

Orioles Place Rich Hill on Disabled List; Chris Tillman to Make Big League Debut

Charlie — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:05:17 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Chris Tillman

Browse more photos »

The Orioles have placed pitcher Rich Hill on the disabled list with a sore shoulder. Hill pitched yesterday against the Royals and allowed three runs and three walks in 2.3 innings. Hill contends that he's been pitching hurt all season:

"I've been pitching with a torn labrum pretty much all season, so it's kind of something that I think it's either gotten worse or it's still the same," Hill said. "I'm not looking for an out or an excuse, but ... pitching with a torn labrum is something that isn't very easy to do, I guess you could say."

Orioles manager Dave Trembley acted surprised when told the extent of Hill's shoulder injury.

"To be honest with you, that's the first time I ever heard about a torn labrum," Trembley said. "I was not aware of that. And after he talked to me, I spoke to (trainer) Richie Bancells."

If Hill really does have a torn labrum, I'm not sure how Baltimore's manager doesn't know about it. Hill says he learned about the tear when he was doing a physical for the Orioles before the Cubs traded him.

In the meantime, the Cubs have promoted Chris Tillman to take Hill's place on the roster. Tillman, 21, will pitch against the Royals tonight. Tillman, who was acquired in the Erik Bedard deal with Seattle, has emerged as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He posted a 2.70 ERA with 99 strikeouts in 96.7 innings this year for Class AAA Norfolk. It's a shame that Hill has been a bust for the Orioles--I've always liked watching his curveball--but Tillman's big-league debut is a heck of a silver lining for O's fans and for the baseball world at large.

Royals 5, Orioles 3. So, Bruce Chen, huh?

duck — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 02:41:05 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

Rich Hill prepares for yet another awful pitch. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

Browse more photos »

Losing teams find ways to lose. And tonight, the Orioles found a way to lose to Bruce Chen and the Royals. Yup, Bruce Chen, ex-Oriole, last seen getting whiplash watching balls fly over the fence in 2006. He of the 6.58 ERA, the 1.462 WHIP and measly 5.5 K/9 in 2009.

And sure enough, the O's scored in each of the first two innings. Granted, KC scored in the first as well, but the O's couldn't lose to Bruce Chen, could they?

Rich Hill answered the question rather convincingly. Hill, who knew, stone cold knew, that his pitching career could be decided by tonight's effort, lasted seven outs. He gave up three runs, four hits, walked three, struck out one and generally looked clueless. His delivery looked awful, he had no idea where the ball was going, and didn't even bother throwing his glove in the dugout when Dave Trembley came out to yank him. And if corporal punishment was legal for pitchers, I do believe Diamond Dave would have taken him behind the nearest woodshed.

Oh, the lineup doesn't get a pass tonight. Did I mention we lost to Bruce Chen? Sure enough, aside from Adam Jones hitting a solo HR and getting hit at an opportune time, the Orioles just didn't get much going. The other RBI was the result of a Matt Wieters single that scored Aubrey Huff, but then third-base coach Juan "Windmill" Samuel had Nolan Reimold try for home, where he was out by about 700 feet, roughly. Maybe 600. Looked like 700 to me.

I could recite the offensive futility of the Orioles in this game, but much like Nickelback songs, it's the same tune, just different details. The bullpen did its job, for the most part, with Brian Bass going scoreless for 3.1 and although single runs were scored against Matt Albers and Danys Baez (whose trade values sinks like a rock with every appearence), Cla Meredith came in and threw a shutout inning to finish the 9th. But the bullpen didn't really lose this one. Rich Hill did.

Losing teams find a way to lose, and having a starter like Rich Hill in the rotation certainly increases the odds. And it's getting damn frustrating to watch.

Poll

Who was the Most Birdland Player for Monday, July 27, 2009?

Nolan Reimold (2-3, 1 BB)

41 votes

Adam Jones (1-3, HR, HBP)

33 votes

Aubrey Huff (2-4, 1BB)

3 votes

Brian Bass (3.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 K)

36 votes

No one - 3 runs against Bruce Chen? Are you kidding me?

138 votes

251 votes | Poll has closed

Off Day Randomness

Stacey — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 12:39:50 -0000

Some things to ponder and discuss on a day with no Orioles baseball to distract us:

Trade Rumors!

MLBTradeRumors.com reports the following regarding the Orioles:

Jhoulys Chacin, a top pitching prospect for the Rockies, was pulled from his start yesterday. Speculation is he could be involved in a deal for any number of relievers, including Danys Baez and George Sherrill (more details in Dr. Orpheus' Fan Post).
Ken Rosenthal says the Angels are targeting Sherrill and Cleveland's Rafael Betancourt. He doesn't think the Orioles are interested in trading Huff or Scott. And speculates Hendo may be on the block, though not for the Angels.
But George Sherrill doesn't want to be traded! He likes it here! (Sun)
It will probably be at least a month before Miguel Sano signs, but the Orioles are still interested. (MASN)

Around the BlogOsphere:

Around the Harbor takes a look at the inconsistency of the Orioles offense.
Dempsey's Army does some math to figure the trade value of the Orioles' spare parts.
Contribute to The Wayward Oriole's caption contest for a picture of Luke and Amber. Also, if you enjoyed the rhyming game thread awhile back, scroll down and check out his rhyming all star game updates.
Camden Crazies plays a game of WAR and determines that Albert Pujols is more valuable than the entire Orioles infield, Matt Kemp is more valuable than the entire Orioles outfield, and Zack Greinke is more valuable than the entire Orioles rotation. Depressing.

And finally, a stat to think about...

A pretty simple way to see how good a team is going is their run differential. Score more runs than you allow and you'll win more (generally speaking). So far this year the Orioles have scored 436 runs and allowed 498 runs. That's an average of 4.64 runs scored per game and 5.30 runs allowed per game, a difference of -0.66 runs per game, and the only negative run differential in the American League East. For reference, the Red Sox have a run differential of 0.83, the Yankees' is 0.72, the Rays' is 0.86, and the Blue Jays' is 0.35. To be in league with the conteders of the AL East the Orioles need to increase their differential by over 1 run.

It's been mentioned around here that even when the pitching gets here, it's possible the the offense won't be good enough to make up the difference. So what do you think? When Rich Hill and Jason Berken are replaced by Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta/Brian Matusz, will that do it? How about the hopeful increase in production by Matt Wieters and Nolan Reimold to go along with Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts, and Luke Scott? What about the black holes that are first and third base? Who can fill those spots in 2010?

Yankees 6, Orioles 4: Swept out of town

Stacey — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 21:13:33 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

4 months ago: Baltimore Orioles pitcher Jason Berken wipes his face during the first inning against the New York Yankees in their baseball game at Yankee Stadium Wednesday, July 22, 2009 in New York. Berken gave up four runs in the inning. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Browse more photos »

Here are some ugly stats for you:

The Orioles are now 1-14 on the road against the AL East this season. With three games @ Boston coming up this weekend, they could easily be 1-17 by Monday.
The Orioles have lost their last 10 games on the road against the Yankees.
After scoring 21 runs in three games vs the White Sox (and still losing 2 out of 3), the Orioles managed only 9 in three games vs the Yankees.
In this three game series, the Yankees scored a total of 12 runs. 5 of those runs scored were by players on base via walk.

Ok enough of that. So the Orioles just got swept, but just how bad was it? Well, it was bad. Game one featured great pitching and no offense. Game two featured awful pitching and mediocre hitting. Game three featured bi-polar pitching and bad offense (at least until the Yankees decided to give the struggling Brian Bruney a chance in the 9th)

With the imminent promotion of Chris Tillman, Jason Berkan was pitching for his job today. Like David Hernandez before him, Berken had trouble getting out of the first inning. I chalked David Hernandez's up to nerves about pitching at Yankee Stadium for the first time. I suppose it could be the same for Berken, but for some reason I'm not feeling very charitable about it. Perhaps it's because Hernandez was able to work out of his jam but Berken ended up allowing 4 runs. It took him 31 pitches to get out of the inning and it looked like he wouldn't be long for the game. Considering Rich Hill had forced the bullpen to work 5 innings yesterday, that didn't bode well.

After the first inning, however, Berken looked like a new pitcher. He pitched a total of 6 innings on 89 pitches. If you take out the 31 pitch first inning, he averaged 11.6 pitches per inning. In those five innings he allowed just three base runners. Jorge Posada hit a solo HR in the third, Nick Swisher walked in the fourth, and Robinson Cano singled in the 6th. At the rate Berken was going I'm surprised he didn't go out for the 7th. If you just check the box score today, it'll look like Jason Berken pitched another lousy game. And as far as results go, he did. 6 ER in 6 innings is very bad. But the way he pulled himself together was a little impressive. It certainly made me wish that we'd see Rich Hill be the one to get the boot when Tillman is called up.

Cla Meredith made his first appearance as an Oriole today. He started his O's career by hitting Brett Gardner. You hate to see the lead off man get on, but throwing at a Yankee is always at least partly acceptable. He followed that up by striking out Derek Jeter. He then allowed a single to Johnny Damon but got Mark Teixeira to line into a double play.

The offense today was the Nick and Adam show. The Orioles were held scoreless by A.J. Burnett until the 7th inning when Robert Andino (remember him?) led off the inning with an infield hit. Adam Jones followed that with a double to put runners on 2nd and 3rd and one out. Nick Markakis plated Andino with a sacrifice fly, then Adam scored on a wild pitch. Then in the 9th inning, with the Yankees winning 6-2 and two outs, Adam and Nick hit back-to-back HR. That forced the Yankees to bring in Mariano Rivera, who predictably struck out Aubrey Huff to end the game.

The rest of the hitters were kind of sucky. ZAUN went 2-3 with a walk and Luke Scott had a hit and a walk, but that was it. The Orioles left 9 men on base today and leave New York at a season awful 12 games under .500

Poll

Who was today's Most Birdland Player (MBP)?

Adam Jones (4-5, 2 R, 1 RBI, 2B, HR)

129 votes

Nick Markakis (1-4, 1 R, 2 RBI, SF, HR)

3 votes

Cla Meredith (Beaned a Yankee as his first official act as an Oriole, struck out Derek Jeter)

88 votes

No One

12 votes

232 votes | Poll has closed

Yankees 6, Orioles 4: 0-5 in New Yankee Stadium

Stacey — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 03:45:36 -0000

Sometimes the thought of writing a narrative about a game just seems like too much. So instead, a recap in pictures (pictures obviously not from tonight but rather just pictures I enjoy).

The Good

Brian Roberts has been on fire since the All Star break, and he continued tonight, going 3-4 with a double, a stolen base, and two runs.

Nick Markakis had another great night. He went 3-4 with 1 RBI and 1 run scored. He also threw Derek Jeter out trying to score. It was beautiful.

Melvin Mora only had one hit, but it was a big one. With runners on 2nd and 3rd in the 6th inning, Melvin singled to left, scoring Markakis and Aubrey Huff.

Matt Albers came in to pitch with one out in the 6th inning and runners on 2nd and 3rd and immediately cleaned up the mess made by Brian Bass and Cesar Izturis. He struck out Derek Jeter and got Johnny Damon to fly out to Nolan Reimold. Mark Hendrickson also pitched a good inning. It's nice to see him effective.

See the more crappy stuff after the jump

The Bad

Luke Scott went 0-4 and is now just 1 for 16 since the All Star Break. Aubrey Huff did have one hit and scored a run, but only because Johnny Damon threw to 2nd instead of home. Huff stopped at third on Mora's single even though Juan Samuel was waving him in. By the time he started moving again he would have been out by a mile if Damon had thrown to the right base. Combined, Huff and Scott left 5 men on base.

Brian Bass was forced to come into the game in the fourth inning and gave up 2 hits and 3 walks in 2.1 innings. He only gave up one run but it would have been worse if Matt Albers hadn't saved his behind.

The Makes Me Want to Vomit

Rich Hill proved once again that he doesn't belong in a major league rotation. He only gave up 3 hits in 3 innings, but when you add 4 walks to that it gets ugly really fast. 3 innings, 4 walks, 5 runs. After tonight his WHIP is up to 1.83 and his ERA 7.64. It's my desire to never see Rich Hill again, but I don't think I'm that lucky.

Poll

Who was tonight's Most Birdland Player (MBP)?

Brian Roberts (3-4, 2B, SB, 2 R)

57 votes

Nick Markakis (3-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, threw out the Cap'n at home)

83 votes

Melvin Mora (1-4, 2 RBI, clutchness due to playoff experience)

4 votes

Matt Albers (1.2 IP, 0 H, 2 K, got the O's out of Brian Bass' jam by stranding two)

8 votes

Mark Hendrickson (1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, has found a home in the bullpen)

2 votes

No One

10 votes

164 votes | Poll has closed

Angels 9, Orioles 6: New day, same ending

duck — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 01:30:09 -0000

More photos » by Keith Birmingham - AP

Aubrey Huff watches as two runs are walked home with the bases loaded in the seventh inning. We know, Aubrey, we know. (AP Photo/Keith Birmingham)

Browse more photos »

I didn’t see most of last night’s Saturday's Orioles - Angels game, at least not coherently. But I watched enough at my local watering hole to see the O’s cruise out to a 4-run lead, then go back into the clubhouse and watch "Matlock." I was a bit surprised at how completely the game got away from the Orioles and Jason Berken specifically, and quite frankly, I got a little depressed about whether this team will ever have enough pitching in the rotation and the bullpen simultaneously to win on a consistent basis. Maybe it was just the vodka.

Nope, it wasn’t the vodka. Today didn’t elevate my mood at all. Again, the O’s staked a 4-run lead, and again, the starter, in this case Rich "Why the" Hill "am I still here?", faltered early, and the game was lost in the later innings as the Orioles again failed to score after the first few innings.

There were a few bright spots today. Adam Jones, son! was named to his first All-Star Game, meaning so far the Erik Bedard trade has yielded 2 All-Stars. Also in that deal was Chris Tillman, whom we may see as soon as Tuesday, given the news concerning Chris Ray’s departure after today's game back to Baltimore to have his shoulder examined. Matt Wieters had his first 3-hit day – and don’t look now, but his average is creeping up to .280 rather quickly. Brian Roberts had a home run, and an apology for Dave Trembley about his recent play. Apparently, Brian reads the blogs and knows we are not pleased.

But again, the bullpen was brutal. Matt Albers gave up 3 runs in his 0.2 of an inning, with 4 walks doing most of the damage. Yes, 1 was intentional, but 4 walks are 4 free baserunners, no matter how you explain it away. Chris Ray looked like he had no idea where his release point was, and there may be a problem with his shoulder. Mark Hendrickson came on and looked like he’s found a role in the bullpen, again quenching the flames of his predecessors with 2.0 IP of scoreless and hitless pitching with 2 strike-outs. He may have found his home in the ‘pen, and it’s not as a lefty specialists, it’s as a 2 inning pitcher. Good teams need those, too.

I’ll offer some choices for Most Birdland Player, but honestly, even with The Deity’s offensive outburst, I’m not feeling too happy about this team right now. Three lefty starters in Seattle aren’t about to improve my mood this week, I’m guessing.

Orioles vs Angels coverage | Orioles vs Angels recap | Halos Heaven | Orioles vs Angels boxscore

Poll

Who was the Most Birdland Player of July 5, 2009?

Brian Roberts (2-5, HR, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 R)

26 votes

Adam Jones, son! (All-Star selection, 2-5)

22 votes

Matt Wieters (3-3, HR, RBI, 2 R, 1 BB)

137 votes

No one - this was a game the Orioles should have won!

46 votes

231 votes | Poll has closed

Orioles 11, Red Sox 10: Greatest Comeback in Franchise History (you can look it up).

Stacey — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 06:38:24 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

Baltimore Orioles' Brian Roberts (1) slides home to score the go-ahead run on a Nick Markakis double during the eighth inning of a baseball game Tuesday, June 30, 2009, in Baltimore. The Orioles won 11-10. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

Browse more photos »

You want to hear something funny? In the 2nd inning of this game, with the Orioles down 4-0, I had myself convinced that John Smoltz was going to throw a no hitter. I really believed it. I had visions of John Kruk warbling on about John Smoltz's huge comeback as a Red Sox and the Orioles looking the way we all expect them to look in situations such as these. Well, Robert Andino ensured that the O's wouldn't be no hit with a single in the third, and Felix Pie ensure they wouldn't be shut out with an RBI triple. It was of little consolation, however, since Rich Hill was just awful tonight. Absolutely putrid. A Kevin Youkilis home run in the first, a Dustin Pedroia two run double in the 2nd, and let's not even talk about the 4th inning, when the Red Sox scored 5 runs to go ahead 9-1.

I was just about to turn off this sorry excuse for a baseball game and get to the laundry I've been neglecting when the rains came and washed away the stink of the Orioles. After over an hour of rain, the game recommenced, and our lives were changed. Justin Masterson replaced John Smoltz and at first, it looked like more of the same. He retired the first six batters he faced until the 8th inning.

And that's when something magic happened.

Aubrey Huff led off with a single. Simple enough. At that point the O's were down 10-1 and I was barely even paying attention to the game. Follow that with a single by Nolan Reimold and an Luke Scott double off the scoreboard (three feet to the left and it would have been a HR) and suddenly it was 10-2. I yawned. Oscar Salazar stepped up to the plate, pinch hitting for Melvin Mora. Oscar hasn't gotten many chances since being called up, but he made the most of it by absolutely crushing the baseball to left field. It landed in the back of the left field seats and the O's were down 10-5, and they weren't done. With two outs and Robert Andino at 2nd, Felix Pie singled in the 6th run. Nick Markakis followed with a single of his own and with runners on first and third, Aubrey Huff lined a ball towards second. I thought it would be a base hit, but Pedroia timed his leap perfectly and stabbed it out of the air.

The Orioles had made the score respectable and were back in the game, but five more runs in two innings against the best bullpen in baseball seemed like a steep order. Do you know what the Orioles offense said to that? They said, "Pshaw, we don't even need two innings. We'll do it in one."

Leading off the 8th was Nolan Reimold, who started things off with a single. The scoreboard again proved to be Luke Scott's nemesis. This time he launched what I thought for sure was a home run, but it hit off the top of the scoreboard and bounced back into play for a double, putting runners and 2nd and 3rd. Probably all for the best, since home runs are known to kill rallies. Oscar Salazar followed his monster home run up with a "single" to the catcher. Actually it was the catcher picking up the ball and just standing there. Who knows why. Who cares why? The bases were loaded with zero outs for young Matt Wieters, who served a soft single into left field to score Nolan Reimold. Ty Wigginton, pinch hitting for Robert Andino, sent a ball to deep right. I thought for a moment it might get out, but instead it was caught on the warning track. Luke Scott raced home with the 8th run of the night. Brian Roberts, in an 0-18 funk, lined a single past a diving Youkilis at third to score Salazar, and just like that the Orioles were down by only one run.

Terry Francona had seen enough and brought in Jonathan Papelbon to attempt a 5 out save. Papelbon struck out Felix Pie for the second out, but he wouldn't be so lucky with Nick Markakis. With Jeremy Guthrie on 2nd (running for Wieters) and Brian Roberts on first, Nick hit a shot into the gap. Guts and Brian raced around the bases to score the tying and go ahead runs.

And then my head exploded. The Orioles had gone from a 10-1 deficit to take the lead 11-10. It was the greatest comeback in team history as well as the greatest comeback of any last place team against a first place team in the history of the MLB (thanks to 2632 for the fun facts). Those comeback facts, of course, would only matter if the O's could hold on to win.

Enter George Sherrill, who has been great this year, but had never pitched in a game that had unfolded quite like this. He was set to face three right handed batters, and chose this night to make things interesting in old school Georgie style. Number 9 hitter Jeff Bailey, just called up to replace injured Mike Lowell on the roster, led off with a single. Julio Lugo struck out and Dustin Pedroia flew out to right, and only Kevin Youkilis stood between the Orioles and victory. Sherrill quickly got two strikes and what Oriole fans remained at Camden Yards after a 9 run deficit and an hour plus rain day rose to their feet...just in time for Sherrill to plunk Youk on the elbow. UGH. That moved the tying run to second base for Jason Bay, who struck out. O'S WIN! O'S WIN! Never a doubt, Georgie. Never a doubt.

What an amazing, exhilarating, roller coaster of a game. It featured everything that is right about the Orioles and everything that is wrong with the Orioles, all in one game. It was magic magic magic magic...Orioles Magic.

Random Notes:

Adam Jones had to leave the game after crashing into the wall trying to rob Kevin Youkilis of a home run in the 1st inning. He actually caught the ball but the impact knocked his glove into the bullpen. According to Dave Trembley, he hit his face against the wall and was suffering from a headache, so they removed him for precautionary reasons. He is currently day-to-day.
It's easy to gloss over because of the win, but the umpiring in this game has been some of the worst I've ever seen. The strike zone has been all over the place the last two games, and the frustration by the Orioles was evident. Dave Trembley spent much of the game jawing at the umpire, who also got words of frustration from Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff, Nick Markakis, Felix Pie, and maybe others. It's a shame that the umpires aren't held to a higher standard of accountability. Everyone noticed how awful the umpires have been. Dave Johnson, Jim Palmer, the NESN announcers, me.
I think this game makes up for the Mother's Day Massacre from a few years ago. Of course, if you're a Red Sox fan, that game is called the Mother's Day Miracle. The NESN announcers declared this game the Camden Yards Comeback, but you Red Sox fans out there can think of it as the Camden Yards Collapse.

See some great game related pictures below the jump.

Awesome. via www.fangraphs.com

Courtesy of SidewinderX

dkdc's view on the way home from work.

Poll

Who was tonight's Most Birdland Player (MBP)?

Felix Pie (2-4, 2 RBI, Triple, gunned down a runner at home to end the 8th inning)

65 votes

Nick Markakis (2-5, RBI double to knock in the tying and go ahead runs)

67 votes

Nolan Reimold (3-5, 2 runs, generally awesome)

9 votes

Luke Scott (2-4, 2 doubles, 2 runs, 1 RBI, 1 BB, a tshirt that says "God is like coke...He's the real thing")

24 votes

Oscar Salazar (2-2, pinch hit 3 run HR, 3 RBI, 2 R)

117 votes

Matt Wieters (2-4, 1 RBI)

2 votes

Brian Roberts (1-5, clutch RBI single, scored winning run)

3 votes

Mark Hendrickson (3.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 K)

4 votes

George Sherrill (Never a doubt)

14 votes

305 votes | Poll has closed