SB Nation - Kiko Calero

Closers as synonym for Relievers

DanUpBaby — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 11:00:30 -0000

^^ is a closer.

The Matt Holliday Question—I like thinking of it that way, as though its ramifications for Singapore are about to be discussed in an unsigned piece in The Economist—has kept us from freaking out about the bullpen. In some ways this is a good thing; there's nothing less satisfying that worrying about The Bullpen Question, which is never answered to our satisfaction on a year-to-year basis. But with Holliday in Flux, we've got no choice. As a prompt, this headline from Ken Rosenthal: "Too many closers, not enough jobs":

For some closers, the free-agent game of musical chairs is not likely to end well...

Two more closers -- Pirates righty Matt Capps and Nationals righty Mike MacDougal -- became free agents when their respective teams declined to offer them salary arbitration.

The availability of the Padres' Heath Bell in trade only adds to the squeeze. Bell is more affordable than some of the closers on the open market...

Four teams already have found closers. The Braves signed left-hander Billy Wagner. The Orioles signed left-hander Mike Gonzalez. The Rays traded for righty Rafael Soriano and the Astros signed righty Brandon Lyon...

This article is why the term "closer" is worthless. I'm done trying to convince people any other way—no more decrying the overrated concept of "closing experience", of "the closer's mentality", of anything else that can be measured statistically. Mike MacDougal, Heath Bell, Billy Wagner, and Mike Gonzalez are all described here, by a well-regarded baseball reporter, as closers. If that is the case—then this term is completely without meaning.

Does labeling this set of relievers "closer" tell you anything more about them than labeling them relievers would? Just one thing: they have all pitched in the ninth inning for at least one season. This information is completely worthless.

That aside—this is not an extremely promising crop of relief pitchers. Jose Valverde is the best free agent, but as a Type A free agent who was offered arbitration he'd cost the Cardinals a draft pick. The Cardinals haven't been linked to Matt Capps's list of finalists, and that he's in such demand following a really ugly season—Jason Motte with fewer strikeouts and walks?—is condemnation enough of the remaining prospects. (Though, seriously, where are they on Kiko Calero? Where is everybody on Kiko Calero?)

For these prospects are, in grand La Russa/Duncan fashion, interesting-but. My favorite, and probably Duncan's favorite, is Mike MacDougal, but my interest is purely as a spectator; his fastball is awesome, his nickname is awesome, and he gets a ton of groundballs and doesn't give up any home runs, which would be awesome if he were still striking batters out. (Bizarre, possibly related Fangraphs fact: he almost totally stopped throwing his once-vaunted slider last year, going with the fastball more often than Jason Motte.) MacDougal's not likely to be a good reliever, and my taste in bad relievers aside he's of interest mostly as a Dave Duncan lottery ticket. But he's also a closer, so there's that.

What this means for the Cardinals is that barring a trade their improved bullpen will have to come from within. Is anybody here willing to nominate someone other than Motte as the bullpen savior in 2010? Relievers are so difficult to predict that I've almost stopped doing it; it's the last baseball territory in which my emotions are basically sovereign over my common sense, and it would definitely be my weakness if I were a GM. Francisco Samuel? Certainly this is the year he puts it all together, perhaps under the steady tutelage of a veteran closer like Mike MacDougal. Casey Mulligan? He's apparently got no stuff whatsoever, but he's dominated four levels in two years, so why not? Gary Daley? Well, he got to AAA, and he didn't walk 25 batters per nine innings this year.

I thought about ending this entry with a poll, but there are just too many choices, even though in the end my tastes run, conventionally, toward Mitchell Boggs, whose fastball looked nearly as good as Mike MacDougal's in the bullpen, and Eduardo Sanchez, the only blue-chip reliever left in the high minors. It's just that in the bullpen it's harder than any other corner of the roster to discount the possibility that someone who I was not counting on at all in March is carrying the team in July.

Kiko Calero a Cub?

craig — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 03:57:52 -0000

I have no idea what Kiko Calero did in a past life, but whatever it was, it wasn't good.

...free-agent right-hander Kiki Calero may be on the Cubs' radar. Calero went 2-2 with a 1.95 ERA in 67 games last season with the Marlins.

There are worse things than being a Cub, I guess, like being a Phillie, but you know things aren't exactly lining up your way when the biggest newspaper in Chicago can't even bother to spell your name correctly.

Brandon Lyon Nears Deal With Astros, Bullpen Options Dwindling

Eric Simon — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 11:00:26 -0000

More photos » by Danny Moloshok - AP

"Whoo Bessy. $15 million smackeroos!" (AP Photo/Danny Moloshok)

Browse more photos »

There goes another semi-attractive free agent pitcher, as Brandon Lyon is apparently close to signing a three-year deal with the Astros worth $15 million. It's way too much money for Lyon, a competent reliever who is effective against both lefties and righties. Lyon's upside is probably about a win above replacement, and while he'll nicely fill the hole left by the departing LaTroy Hawkins, $5 million a year is just crazy. Then again, Hawkins just signed a two-year deal with the similarly-daft Brewers worth $7.5 million, so I guess madness can only be measured relatively.

This is all good news for Mike Gonzalez, who is a much better pitcher than either Lyon or Hawkins -- and is a lefty to boot -- though his injury history is more troubling than the other two. Gonzalez's agent -- a Mr. Scott Boras -- will doubtless be using Lyon's deal with Houston as a jumping-off point in negotiations with other clubs. I don't know that the Mets are in the market for a big-ticket reliever, though I certainly don't care to see them spend $18 million over three years for Gonzalez plus forfeit a high draft pick to Atlanta in the process. Payback for Tom Glavine's defection two years ago, to be sure.

The two best free agent relievers -- Rafaels Soriano and Betancourt -- both accepted their former clubs' offers of salary arbitration, so consider them off the market for now. The Braves are fielding offers on Soriano, who has given the team permission to trade him, but don't expect him to end up on the Mets. Soriano made $6.1 million and could see a bump to $9 million or more in 2010. That's a lot of money, though the cost is mitigated somewhat by the fact that it would only be a one-year deal and that Soriano, if healthy, is a safe bet to be a Type-A free agent again next year. I'm not sure Atlanta would even consider trading him to New York, though it may be a moot point anyway as it looks like he's on his way to Tampa Bay.

Kiko Calero is the most attractive free agent reliever still available, and his price tag comes without the added encumbrance of draft pick compensation, which is not something you can say about Jose Valverde. Beyond those two you've got the likes of Russ Springer, J.J. Putz, and Chan Ho Park, the latter of which might actually be the most appealing of the three. At all events, the list of available -- and moderately attractive -- free agent relievers is now rail-thin, so anyone in the market for one should act fast or risk winding up with Luis Ayala et al.

A Brief Primer on the Rays Off-Season to Date and a Look Forward to the Winter Meetings

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 18:54:22 -0000

The Winter Meetings start tomorrow. Any murmur or misunderstood comment will be amplified and some press members will be used as pawns. Disinformation is going to spread like wildfire. This makes the event more alluring as a spectator sport, but keep in mind 90% of what is talked about will never come to fruition. Now, completely ignoring that, this is the day one open thread. Ideally most of the rumors and discussion will stick to this thread until a recap thread is posted (expect that in the evening) barring something actually occurring or a rumor passing the smell test with flying colors.

This thread is going up about 20 hours early because tomorrow we'll have a very special interview with James Click -- the Rays chief of quantitative analysis and former Baseball Prospectus deity - which should provide entertainment for those willing to accept anything less than rumors in the early AM.

Moving on, let's review the Rays off-season to date in a brief and concise manner which means links.

Transactions

Rays re-sign Gabe Kapler

Akinori Iwamura for Jesse Chavez

Player to be named later for Kelly Shoppach

R.J. Swindle signs minor league deal

Joe Bateman signs minor league deal

Gregg Zaun signs with Milwaukee

Ramon Ramirez is claimed on waivers...

And then released

Milton Bradley

The Burrell-Bradley swap

The clubhouse cancer theory

Rumors and general interest posts

Rays interested in Ivan Rodriguez?

Pirates make Reid Brignac main target?

Why Billy Wagner made no sense for the Rays

Three rules about acquiring relievers

The Rays and the win curve

Kiko Calero

Brendan Donnelly

Kelvim Escobar

Joaquin Benoit

Carl Crawford extension talk

Interviews with Rays personnel

Andrew Friedman

Matt Arnold

Chaim Bloom

Remember that you can also follow the latest Rays rumors, news, and tidbits on Twitter by adding @draysbay, @trancel, @ehahmann, or @freezorilla.

One more note: please, please, post the source of the rumor. And generally speaking, the MLBTR comments section or a random message board post won't pass the smell test.

2010 MLB Arbitration Tracker

Eric Simon — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 22:48:02 -0000

The deadline for offering salary arbitration to impending free agents is midnight tonight. Here are the latest decisions.

Player	Team	Type	Arb?	Updated
Jason Bay	Red Sox	A	YES	***
Doug Davis	Diamondbacks	B	NO	***
Mark DeRosa	Cardinals	B	YES	***
Justin Duchscherer	Athletics	B	YES	***
Chone Figgins	Angels	A	YES	***
Troy Glaus	Cardinals	B	NO	***
Vladimir Guerrero	Angels	B	NO	***
Matt Holliday	Cardinals	A	YES	***
John Lackey	Angels	A	YES	***
Darren Oliver	Angels	A	NO	***
Joel Pineiro	Cardinals	B	YES	***
Brian Shouse	Rays	B	YES	***
Billy Wagner	Red Sox	A	YES	***
Gregg Zaun	Rays	B	YES	***

The full arbitration decision list is after the jump.

Player	Team	Type	Arb?	Updated
Rod Barajas	Blue Jays	B	NO
Jason Bay	Red Sox	A	YES	***
Erik Bedard	Mariners	B	NO
Joe Beimel	Rockies	B	NO
Adrian Beltre	Mariners	B	YES
Rafael Betancourt	Rockies	A	YES
Doug Brocail	Astros	B	NO
Marlon Byrd	Rangers	B	YES
Kiko Calero	Marlins	B	NO
Johnny Damon	Yankees	A	NO
Doug Davis	Diamondbacks	B	NO	***
Carlos Delgado	Mets	B	NO
Mark DeRosa	Cardinals	B	YES	***
Octavio Dotel	White Sox	B	NO
Justin Duchscherer	Athletics	B	YES	***
Jermaine Dye	White Sox	A	NO
Chone Figgins	Angels	A	YES	***
Jon Garland	Dodgers	B	NO
Brian Giles	Padres	B	NO
Troy Glaus	Cardinals	B	NO	***
Mike Gonzalez	Braves	A	YES
Kevin Gregg	Cubs	A	NO
Vladimir Guerrero	Angels	B	NO	***
Rich Harden	Cubs	B	NO
LaTroy Hawkins	Astros	A	NO
Matt Holliday	Cardinals	A	YES	***
Orlando Hudson	Dodgers	A	NO
Nick Johnson	Marlins	B	NO
John Lackey	Angels	A	YES	***
Adam LaRoche	Braves	B	NO
Brandon Lyon	Tigers	B	YES
Jason Marquis	Rockies	B	YES
Guillermo Mota	Dodgers	B	NO
Xavier Nady	Yankees	B	NO
Will Ohman	Dodgers	B	NO
Darren Oliver	Angels	A	NO	***
Miguel Olivo	Royals	B	NO
Vicente Padilla	Dodgers	B	NO
Carl Pavano	Indians	B	YES
Andy Pettitte	Yankees	B	NO
Joel Pineiro	Cardinals	B	YES	***
Placido Polanco	Tigers	A	NO
Fernando Rodney	Tigers	B	YES
Ivan Rodriguez	Rangers	B	YES
Marco Scutaro	Blue Jays	A	YES
Brian Shouse	Rays	B	YES	***
Rafael Soriano	Braves	A	YES
Fernando Tatis	Mets	B	NO
Miguel Tejada	Astros	A	NO
Yorvit Torrealba	Rockies	B	NO
Jose Valverde	Astros	A	YES
Billy Wagner	Red Sox	A	YES	***
Randy Wolf	Dodgers	A	NO
Gregg Zaun	Rays	B	YES	***

Kiko Calero is gone

craig — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:06:01 -0000

It seems that Kiko Calero's performance last season means he won't be a Marlin in 2010.

Don't look for the Marlins to offer salary arbitration to any of their four free agents -- Kiko Calero, Brendan Donnelly, Ross Gload and Nick Johnson -- at Tuesday's deadline. However, the Marlins remain very much interested in re-signing Gload to a two-year deal similar to the one granted last year to his mirror opposite on the bench, Wes Helms.

The Marlins won't offer arbitration to any of the players. Kiko and NJ especially, they are type B free agents and if the Marlins offered them arbitration, the worse could happen, in the club's eyes, they might take it. Even if they didn't that would mean the Marlins would be awarded a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds of the draft. Wouldn't won't that to happen, those guys cost money in the way of signing bonuses.

The only one we could see back is Gload, don't have a problem with him off the bench, but other clubs can read the stats tables and may offer a better deal. The only thing the Marlins have going for them is that they may be willing to go two years.

Free Agent Reliever Valuation

Eric Simon — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:21:18 -0000

Wins Above Replacement is a little iffy for relief pitchers, but nevertheless here is a rudimentary WAR valuation of some of the more attractive free agent relievers. The '5-3-1 WAR' is a weighted average of the past three seasons.

Player	2010 Age	WAR 2009	WAR 2008	WAR 2007	5-3-1 WAR	WAR $
Rafael Betancourt (A)	35	1.4	0.2	3.2	1.2	5.4
Rafael Soriano (A)	30	2	0.1	0.4	1.2	5.4
Trevor Hoffman (A)	42	1.5	0.1	1.3	1.0	4.6
Kiko Calero	35	1.4	0.1	0.2	0.8	3.8
Jose Valverde (A)	32	0.7	0.8	1.4	0.8	3.7
Brandon Lyon	30	0.7	0.7	1.5	0.8	3.6
Mike Gonzalez (A)	32	0.9	0.1	0.3	0.6	2.6
Russ Springer	41	0.4	0.5	1.2	0.5	2.4
J.J. Putz	33	0.1	0.6	2.3	0.5	2.3
Chan Ho Park	37	0.7	0.3	-0.1	0.5	2.2

It's hard to justify giving up a high second-round pick (somewhere around #45-50 overall) to sign any relief pitcher, let alone a setup man, so while Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez may be two of the better relievers available, their price tags combined with the compensatory draft pick penalty renders them far less appealing than they might otherwise be. Of course, if the Mets sign another Type-A free agent -- Matt Holliday, e.g. -- then they'd be forfeiting a third-round pick instead.

Brandon Lyon, Kiko Calero, and, yes, even Chan Ho Park, are reasonable alternatives to the Type-As on the board. Lyon in particular is intriguing for his effectiveness against lefties (career .766 OPS against righties; .765 against lefties). He's not a great pitcher, but he's pretty good against everyone. Calero has more dramatic lefty/righty splits, but has far better strikeout rates (albeit with worse walk rates) than Lyon.

Park was very effective coming out of the bullpen for the Phillies last season, posting a 3.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 38 appearances, allowing just nine extra-base hits -- all doubles -- along the way. The zero homeruns were probably an aberration for Park, who has been an extreme flyball pitcher throughout his career.

Any of these three -- Lyon, Calero, Park -- could be a reasonable addition to the 2010 bullpen on a 1-2 year deal at $2-3 million per, give or take.

Marlins file for free agency

craig — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 09:55:51 -0000

All of the Marlins eligible for free agency have filed, as expected.

Nick Johnson made an impact with the Marlins. But unless Florida works out a contract with the veteran, those 35 games may be the extent of Johnson's tenure with the organization.

Johnson formally filed for free agency on Friday, along with reliever Kiko Calero, who became a valuable performer in the back end of the bullpen.

The filing period began on Thursday, and now all four of Florida's eligible free agents have placed themselves in position to test the market. Reliever Brendan Donnelly and first baseman Ross Gload filed on Thursday.

By league rule, the Marlins hold exclusive negotiating rights with all four through Nov. 19. If no deal is reached by then, the players can talk with all 30 teams.

Johnson is gone. Donnelly and Calero are probably both looking for multiyear deals, so they may be gone too. I think the Marlins will offer Gload the Wes Helms package, but whether he takes it or not will depend on if he can do better elsewhere.

It's the usual for a Marlins offseason.

Why The Rays Should Target Kelvim Escobar

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 10:01:03 -0000

by Duane Burleson - AP

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It's been beaten into our heads a million times already, but with limited payroll space, the Rays options for potential bullpen replacements is also limited. Over the past few weeks we've covered Joaquin Benoit and Kiko Calero as attractive free agents that fit the Rays profile. We've also identified that profile as some one who is effective, gets strikeouts, has a good contact rate, can get both left handers and right handers out, and most importantly is cheap. Of course asking for all that you are going to get candidates with flaws, but the hope is those flaws won't manifest at least in 2010. Until we get more candidates after the December non-tender deadline, here are two final candidates that I've identified as being targets as soon as free agency starts next month.

Before we look at the difference in each individual's case, here are some similarities: Brendan Donnelly and Kelvim Escobar are former teammates playing on the same Los Angeles Angels team from 2004-2006.This also means that both are former players of Rays manager Joe Maddon from his time with the Angels. The final similarity comes in the form of injury. Both players have battled injuries in the past which is no different from most MLB pitchers as well as the other relievers we've looked at.

We'll finish up with Donnelly in another post, but now more on Escobar...

Kelvim Escobar was a well above average starting pitcher for the Angels from 2004-2007. He finished with an average FIP of 3.4 in those seasons. However, he would miss the entire 2008 Major League season with an injured shoulder, undergoing laburm surgery in July 2008. He started out 2009 on the DL and made three rehab starts in the minors before making his season debut on 6/6/09 pitching five innings of two run ball for the Halos. Unfortunately, a "pinch" in his shoulder landed him back on the DL. The Angels thought it was a temporary setback, but Escobar did not throw a major league pitch for the rest of the season.

It's hard to project the numbers on Escobar because he's split his MLB career as a reliever and a starter. He has made 411 appearances with 209 of them in relief and 202 coming as a starter. He worked as a closer for the Blue Jays in 2002 and then posted 200 innings as a starter for Los Angeles in 2004. Regardless of his role, Escobar has been effective. Here are some of his career numbers...

	Games	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP
Starter	202	7.4	2.11	0.77	3.83
Reliever	209	9.98	2.27	1.05	3.98

	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP
Starter	0.256	0.329	0.389	0.304
Reliever	0.243	0.329	0.385	0.307

	BA	OBP	SLG
vs. RHB	0.255	0.321	0.378
vs. LHB	0.253	0.336	0.399

As you can see, he's just a good pitcher. As a starter he allows less home runs and slightly less walks, but as a reliever he strikes out over two and a half more batters per nine. Looking at the second set of statistics, it's amazing to me how similar they are given the two completely different roles. Batters get on-base exactly the same whether he's a starter or a reliever and the slugging is almost identical. The BABIP is almost also similar meaning there isn't much "luck" involved. Of course there's over 1,000 innings difference between the two, but still pretty amazing. Equally impressive is his ability get out hitters regardless of their handedness.

Stuff wise, he throws up to six pitches as a starter: fastball, slider, cutter, curveball, change-up, split finger. However, as a reliever for the Jays in 2002 and 2003, he threw mostly fastballs, curveballs and split fingers with a few change-ups mixed in. It's hard to say what he will throw these days and how hard since he hasn't really thrown in over two seasons. The injury concerns are huge. And Escobar's injury history also includes past elbow problems, but given his past success in either the starter or relievers role and his history with Joe Maddon, he's definitely worth a flier.

Why The Rays Should Target Kiko Calero

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 10:00:42 -0000

via cache.daylife.com

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Once upon a time Kiko Calero was a pretty good reliever for the St. Louis Cardinals. In 2003 he posted an FIP of 3.71 with a tRA of 4.45. He was even better in 2004 with a 3.14 FIP and a very good 3.32 tRA. He was traded to the Oakland A's in the Mark Mulder deal.

Over the next three seasons' in Oakland he posted FIPs of 3.58, 2.97 and 4.37 to go along with tRA of 3.89, 3.27, 4.58. After his average showing in 2007 (4.37/4.58) which might be explained by the next part of this sentence, Calero started the 2008 season on the DL with a rotator cuff injury. He pitched just five games for the A's in 08 and was DFA, released and scooped up by the Rangers. He pitched 18 games for their Triple-A affiliate, but never made it back to the big leagues.

In case you haven't noticed, Calero is back in the big leagues and back to his old ways in South Florida.

Right under our noses, Calero pitched 60 innings for the Marlins in 2009 and posted a 2.56 FIP along with a ridiculous 2.49 tRA. His strikeouts per nine were back over 10 for the first time since 2006.

	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/FB
2005	8.41	2.91	0.97	8.6
2006	10.4	3.72	0.62	6.1
2007	6.86	4.65	0.66	4.9
2009	10.35	4.5	0.15	1.4

*excluding 2008 due to 4.2 innings of Major League work.

Good K rates and acceptable walk rates for the amount of strikeouts. The one thing that instantly jumps out to me is the ridiculously low HR/9 and insanely low HR/FB% this past season. As a predominately flyball pitcher, (46.5% career) both are going to regress regardless of where he pitches in 2010, but the good news is if he regresses to career norms, his career HR/9 of 0.71 and HR/FB% of 6.7 are still good.

Pardon me for bringing up another Rays comparison, but Calero's career year with the Marlins immediately screams of Joe Nelson. Add in Calero's injury history that includes: the rotator cuff, elbow tendonitis and 21 days on the DL this season for shoulder inflammation, and you almost get a déjà vu feeling. However, the only surgery Calero had that I could find on record was to repair a ruptured patella tendon back in 2003 while Nelson has seen his fair share of "the knife."

Despite some similarities from their time with the Marlins and doctors visits, Calero and Nelson are different. Their fastball velocity is similar, around 89-90 mph, but Calero barely throws a change-up, and we all know about Nelson and his Vulcan. Instead, Calero goes to soup de jour of relief pitching and throws his slider more than he does his fastball (55.9% slider career). His slider has always been a plus pitch as had a wSL value of 8.9 this past year.

The plus slider has his swing strike percentage back to pre injury levels of around 12%.

	SwStr%	K%	uBB%
2005	10.8	22.71	6.99
2006	12	27.8	8.71
2007	9.7	16.3	15
2009	12	28.87	10.88

One of the key stats to look at for any potential free agent signing is his ability to hitters regardless of what side of the plate they hit from. Over the course of his career, Calero has shown the ability to get both sides, especially right handers. However, has improved against lefties in each season presumably thanks to that slider. In 2009 he dominated both.

OPSa	vs. LHB	vs. RHB
2005	0.911	0.442
2006	0.784	0.564
2007	0.708	0.87
2009	0.587	0.475

Even though Nelson didn't work out as the Rays had hoped, his signing and subsequent contract weren't bad. The Rays took a modest $1.3 million dollar risk on a one-year deal that didn't work out. Given the number of available high leverage relievers on the market, the potential injury risk, and his modest salary of around half a million in 2009, I'd say Calero is in line for a Nelson-esque contract; or at least that's my hope.

The Rays are looking for two or three relievers who have the ability to get hitters out regardless of handiness and the game situation. Potential signings of Calero and Joaquin Benoit could give the Rays just that without putting any pressure on the current payroll structure.