SB Nation - Angel Guzman

The NL Central Offseason Revue: Ursine Children

the red baron — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 19:43:23 -0000

Sure, I've used it before. It's a good picture, damn it.

But first, a story. (Just so you know it's a Baron post.)

Last weekend, my mother and I went shopping. The Cherokee Street Antique Row Association was holding their annual Cookie Spree, and we go every year. There's always people milling around, free hot apple cider, and most of the shops are decorated.

We met up in South County, deciding it was a better idea to take one car. Mom tends to get motion sickness when not driving, so I generally just ride with her. We headed up 55 toward the city, then exited at the 4500 block of Broadway.

At the bottom of the ramp was an old woman holding a sign. A square of cardboard scrawled all over in black marker, I couldn't read exactly what was written but the message was clear nonetheless. It was cold out, and the ragged old overcoat she was clutching around her looked woefully inadequate. I've been conned before, I'm sure, but this was no panhandler. This was an old woman with no place to go who badly needed help.

We came to a stop at the bottom of the ramp, and I dug out my wallet. Mom reached for her purse, and I told her I would get it. I opened my wallet and grabbed the first two bills in it, a ten and a twenty. Then, guided by some internal calculus I don't at all understand, I put the ten back. I handed my mother the twenty, she motioned the old woman over, and gave it to her. The old woman said something, toothless mouth moving quickly, blessing us and wishing us well, but by then the car was moving and I couldn't entirely tell what it was. We continued on our way, had hot chocolate and apple cider and cookies. I bought an antique light fixture; it seemed like a fine day.

I tell you all this not to make you think I'm some sort of saint for giving this old woman twenty dollars, but because ever since then I haven't been able to stop thinking about the ten dollars I didn't give her. I had almost $300 in my wallet that day, and a credit card nowhere near the limit to boot. In no way, shape, or form would that extra ten dollars have hurt me, yet I put it back. And worst of all, I don't understand why. I like to think I would do whatever it takes to help someone in need, but apparently that only goes so far. Apparently there's a price on my generosity, and it's painfully low. A truly good person would have been willing to hand over everything they had in hand and never thought twice about it; I certainly didn't need another antique to litter my already cluttered house.

We went back the same way later, on the way back to my car, but the old woman was gone. I hope what I gave her was enough to help, but I can't stop thinking about that moment, when I arbitrarily decided the limits of how much I was willing to help another human being.

I've had these posts in mind for a while now, trying to take a look around the division at our rivals and what their offseasons might look like, but simply hadn't had the chance to do so yet. With my inability to post a full post on Wednesday, I thought I might ask Dan if he minded me taking today. He seemed amenable to the idea, unsurprising given the dearth of real meat to work with this time of year and what is undoubtedly a crowded schedule for everyone. So here I am, telling you what the Cubs need to do this winter.

I begin with the Cubs because they are our chief rivals and also because it simply fits. We care more about the Cubs. So here we are.

As the Cubbies head into their first offseason with new ownership, the question of payroll undoubtedly must be raised. Their new owner, Tom Ricketts, has pledged to update the stadium and build a winner, but just how much one will impact the other remains to be seen. For now, it looks as if Ricketts is willing to pour money into the franchise in order to win, and we'll have to operate under that assumption.

Offense

The Cubs' offense took a huge hit last season from the high times of 2008, due to several players underperforming. Alfonso Soriano was the biggest culprit, stumbling to an OPS+ of 84 after three seasons over 115. Geovany Soto went through an awful sophomore slump, falling from a 118 OPS+ to 79. Aramis Ramirez missed significant time with a shoulder injury, and Derrek Lee struggled mightily early in the season before turning it around.

There were bright spots, such as the improvement Kosuke Fukudome made from his first season in the majors or the continued non-suckitude of Ryan Theriot, but overall it was an intensely disappointing season for Chicago at the plate. In 2008 the Cubs scored 855 runs; in 2009 they plated only 707. Enough said.

Starting Pitching

If the Cubs' offense was decidedly disappointing, the pitching was underwhelmingly good. Carlos Zambrano continued his human roller coaster act, yet still managed to post an ERA under 4.00 for the eighth straight year. Nonetheless, the Big Z is no longer quite the intimidating force at the front of a rotation he once was. He's still solid, but he doesn't really scare you anymore. (Well, unless you happen to be something edible or punchable in the dugout, that is.)

Ryan Dempster fell off from his 2008 performance, but was still a plus pitcher for Chicago. He was awful much of the early portion of the year, but came on strong late to lower his ERA to 3.65. Dempster provides much-needed innings, and at a reasonably high level. After Z and Dumpster, though, things get a bit murkier.

Ted Lilly, a relatively unsung contributor to the Cubs' back-to-back division titles, has had shoulder surgery already this offseason. It was minor shoulder surgery, yes, but then again, I'm not entirely sure there is such a thing. Lilly was absolutely brilliant in 2009, posting a 3.61 FIP, but until he can prove his shoulder is unequivocally sound, he has to be a concern.

Perhaps the brightest spot of all for the Cubs in '09 was the performance of their rookie hurler, Randy Wells. He went 12-10, 3.05 in his first extended taste of the majors at 27. His peripherals were mostly in line as well, so it doesn't appear he did it all with smoke and mirrors. Still, Wells is a relatively unknown commodity, and may simply be waiting until the time is right to give up a crippling home run, then rip open his jersey, revealing the Cardinal jersey underneath. So there's that.

The Cubs' fifth starter spot was, for the most part, a disaster. Sean Marshall continued to impersonate Sean Marshall. The Cubs acquired Tom Gorzelanny from the Pirates, and he picked up basically where he left off in Pittsburgh. There were positives in his performance, but for the most part it was another disappointing season for the man once voted Most Likely to Actually Live Up to His Billing among all Pittsburgh left-handed starting prospects.

Relief

Carlos Marmol is sort of the pitching equivalent of a British motorcycle. Yeah, it's a whole lot of fun when it's working, and it certainly looks impressive, but damned if the thing isn't broken down and spilling oil all over your driveway more often than not. Marmol has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, but not much idea where it's going a fair amount of the time. Hitters did a much better job of laying off his slider in 2009, and he had a tough time throwing it for strikes. He still struck out a bunch of hitters (93 in 74 innings), and didn't give up many hits (43), but he also walked 65 hitters, leading to a 1.46 WHIP fueled almost entirely by batters simply standing there and doing nothing.

Kevin Gregg was solid, though not the force the Cubs were undoubtedly hoping for, and he has now departed via free agency. Angel Guzman was impressive, combining a repertoire just a step down from Marmol's with actual control, but he remains very young and was shut down late in the season with an injury. Neal Cotts was, um, how do I put this?- shitty, only to be replaced as the primary lefty by John Grabow. Grabow did what he always does, and should be a definite plus in the 'pen for 2010.

Jeff Samardzija continued his enigmatic career arc, following up his 2.28 ERA in 2008 with a 7.53 in 2009. Sure, he's talented, but at some point Samardzija is going to have to come up with something more than a big fastball and a passing resemblance to Andy Samberg if he wants to succeed at the major league level.

Needs

Any discussion of the Chicago Cubs' offseason has to begin with the outfield, where they badly need to figure things out. Milton Bradley wasn't a bad player for them in 2009; on the contrary, he was probably still their best outfielder, but all signs point to him being dealt this offseason, and I'm not sure I can blame the Cubs. As much as Bradley wasn't the problem with the team this year, I just don't know if his relationship with the fans, not to mention his teammates, is a tenable one.

If Bradley is dealt, the Cubs will have to come up with someone to try and replicate his offensive contributions, and several names have been floated. Rick Ankiel was thought to be their first choice until fairly recently, but things seem to have cooled slightly on that front since Scott Boras made his comments about multiple years and big dollars for Swingin' Dick's services. The Cubs don't seem to have much interest in Matt Holliday, perhaps being a bit gun shy after witnessing how horribly wrong a seven-year deal for an outfielder can go. They also haven't been mentioned all that much in the Jason Bay sweepstakes, so I have to assume they're looking at lower-hanging fruit.

Beyond the outfield, it's somewhat doubtful the Cubs will be able to make any substantial upgrades to their offense. Both corner infield positions are set, and rightfully so. Soto will be looking for a bounceback season; it's far too early to write him off as a one-year wonder. The only spots the Cubs could look to upgrade are the middle infield positions, but I'm not sure how much help is really available at those spots this offseason. Perhaps the Cubbies get involved in trying to trade for Dan Uggla? They do have an exciting young middle infield prospect in the pipeline named Starlin Castro, who has garnered plenty of comparisons to Edgar Renteria, and could draw interest from Florida, but little beyond that.

The bullpen has to be an area of concern, and priority one has to be sorting out who will at least begin the season as the Chicago closer. Marmol, I'm sure, will have the inside track on the job, but after his 2009 performance it shouldn't be a foregone conclusion. I doubt the Cubs will go outside the organisation to find a stopper, but it's likely they'll try to acquire at least an arm or two to bolster the overall depth of the 'pen.

Priorities

Deal with Milton Bradley situation. Trade is most likely outcome.
Acquire offensive upgrade to replace Bradley's production. Left-handed hitter would be desirable.
Shore up bullpen, likely through trades. (Bradley?)
Look at other possible offensive upgrades, i.e. Uggla or Mark DeRosa as utility player.
Acquire 5th starter/ insurance arm for Ted Lilly.
???
World Series title.

The Bottom Line

The Cubs are by no means in dire straights. They underachieved badly last season, but the offense should receive a boost from a full season from Ramirez and, hopefully, better years from Soriano, Soto, and Lee. The same can't really be said for the pitching, which performed right about where one would expect, given the talent level. The starting rotation will remain their biggest strength, while the bullpen remains somewhat suspect.

At this point, the Cubs have to be considered the Cards' main competition for the division again in 2009. Both teams are clearly a step or two ahead of the pack.

There you go, folks. One in the can, four to go.

The Baron's Playlist for the 11th of December, 2009

"The Blizzard" - Camera Obscura A cover of the Jim Reeves/ Johnny Cash classic. Any CO fans out there (and I know there are some), you might want to check out their holiday 7" release, with the Blizzard backed by Swans.

"My Wife and My Dead Wife" - Robyn Hitchcock and the Egyptians

"Oh You Pretty Things" - Peter Noone I just heard this on Pop! The Beat Bubble Bursts yesterday morning, and I can't stop listening to it. It's a Bowie cover by the former Herman's Hermits frontman, and it has a bit of an early Harry Nilsson vibe to it. Really great.

"Intermezzo Sinfonico" from Mascagni's Cavalleria Rusticana - James Levine

"Take On Me" - A.C. Newman Another tip of the hat to KDHX, this time to Nick Acquisto and the Space Parlour. Outstanding cover of the A-Ha classic.

Edit: And, of course, on the day I write this, some actual news comes down the pipeline, as the Cardinals have now apparently made an official offer to Scott Boras and Matt Holliday. Sigh. They couldn't have waited just one more day? Really?

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

View full size photo »

Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

Trade Zambrano? Not After Spectacular 3-0 Shutout Of Giants

Al — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 12:52:29 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Wow, Z. Why can't you do this every time?

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I have been, at times, the leader of the "Trade Zambrano" bandwagon. I did so after the Z - Michael Barrett dustup in 2007, and I told him to "grow up" after the memorable meltdown with umpire Mark Carlson last May.

But there is no doubt that Z is among the most talented pitchers in baseball, and he showed every bit of that talent in shutting out the Giants 3-0 on two hits. In addition to outstanding pitching -- throwing 67 strikes in 98 pitches and allowing just two singles, one by Juan Uribe and another by Tim Lincecum, and issuing a walk to Randy Winn -- Z drove in two of the three Cubs runs, the first by beating a double-play relay throw, and the second with a double to the base of the wall in left field.

Really, what more can you ask of a pitcher? Z took that intensity that we often have seen explode in histrionics and focused every bit of it on his pitching. If we knew that intensity could be that channeled in every single start, not one of us would be asking for him to be sent away (I've even heard a rumor of a "challenge trade" where he'd be sent to the White Sox for Jake Peavy).

And on a night when the start of the game was delayed about five minutes while the Giants presented their annual "Willie Mac" award for community service to Matt Cain (and emcee Mike Krukow gave a shout-out to Cubs broadcaster Bob Brenly, who won the award while playing for the Giants in 1984), Z and the Cubs accomplished all this in one hour and fifty-six minutes, the first nine-inning Cubs game finished in less than two hours in more than three years, since April 17, 2006, a 4-1 win over the Dodgers in Los Angeles.

With Aramis Ramirez still nursing a sore shoulder (Lou didn't want to play him on another chilly night in San Francisco) and Derrek Lee having a bit of a recurrence of his neck problems after an awkward slide stealing his first base of the year and then getting slapped on his helmet by Angel Guzman in the celebration following Jeff Baker's homer (D-Lee says he doesn't blame Guzman and will be back today), the Cubs put another spring-training-like lineup on the field last night, with Baker hitting cleanup and Bobby Scales again in left field. Scales played a competent LF in windy [Phone Holding Company] Park, and Baker drew two walks off Lincecum.

Sam Fuld had three hits, and Len Kasper pointed out during the game that he had singled off two Cy Young winners (Lincecum and Randy Johnson) in the same game. Wonder when that has happened before? The Cubs even scored a run off Johnson, something they've had trouble doing during the Big Unit's long and distinguished career.

But the star of the game was Z, who now has the only two complete-game shutouts for a Cubs pitcher since Jason Marquis threw a three-hitter vs. the Pirates on May 9, 2007. Z was, in many ways, just as dominant than during his no-hitter last September 14. Though he gave up the two singles, he threw fewer pitches and had Giants hitters flailing away at a devastating slider -- seven of the nine K's were swinging.

Keep up the good work, Z, and we'll be thrilled to see you retire as a Cub. And one more thing about recent Cubs baseball: I think I've enjoyed watching them play this week more than at any time all season. The 5-1 record posted since Sunday has included some fine play by just about everyone, and even the one loss was played well. Too bad we had to wait so long.

Finally, there were a lot more excellent entries in last night's photo caption contest. There were two who played off the "Dancing With The Stars" angle, but the winner is going to be the one who posted it first (by time stamp); that would be lohroffc, who posted, simply:

Fukudome and Velez audition for Dancing with the Stars.

Send me your mailing address and I'll send out the DVD. Today's preview thread will be up at 1 pm CDT.

The Tale Of The Season: Cubs Defense, Marmol Fail In 7-5 Loss To Reds

Al — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 21:00:56 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

"If only you guys had played better defense, I could still be in this game!"

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Even I, the eternal optimist, have to admit that the task of making a baseball miracle and getting this Cubs team into the playoffs is probably impossible now.

The Cubs lost to the Reds 7-5 on another sun-kissed September afternoon that reminded all of us of the summer we missed, both baseball-wise and weatherwise. That wasn't the entire story, of course; the Cubs made a stirring comeback from a 5-0 deficit to tie the game in the bottom of the 7th, only to lose.

Wasn't that about the story of the entire season? We got teased from time to time, the team making us think they were about to make an extended run and get back into the race, only to fall back and have reality set in.

Today, the Cubs gave the Reds six outs in the third inning and no team can expect to overcome bad play like that. They were, in fact, lucky to get out of that inning with only two runs scoring. One of the three Cub errors in that inning was an unlucky one -- Aramis Ramirez couldn't have aimed the throw on Drew Stubbs' grounder better than he actually threw it. The ball hit Corky Miller in the helmet and ricocheted at least 100 feet away into about the fifth row behind the Cubs dugout. A run scored and runners wound up on second and third. This was after Derrek Lee, as sure-handed a fielder as the Cubs have, fumbled a bunt attempt by pitcher Johnny Cueto, which should have been an automatic out.

Even after that, the Cubs could have gotten out of the inning with no runs scoring. Darnell McDonald hit a ball to Ryan Theriot, who threw home to get Cueto. That left runners on first and third with one out, and Randy Wells got the tough Joey Votto to hit a grounder right to Lee for what should have been an inning-ending double play. Unfortunately, Theriot dropped the ball, and Brandon Phillips' subsequent single scored the second run of the inning.

Both of those runs were unearned due to the errors, and the three runs that scored in the third should have been unearned, too; Votto's ball that glanced off Lee's glove was scored a hit, but should have also been an error. That could have been a double play, too, and then even after a pair of walks Jonny Gomes' grounder would have ended the inning with no runs scoring.

Randy Wells deserved better, and the bullpen did a good job of keeping the Reds at five runs while the Cubs were hurriedly catching up; Geovany Soto, whose bat has come alive in this series, hit doubles in the sixth and seventh innings, driving in three of the five runs the Cubs scored to come back and tie. Ramirez was thrown out at the plate -- I would have sent him too, with two out and the tying run already in. It took a perfect throw and relay to get him.

But then, Carlos Marmol came in. Marmol has been very good since being anointed closer, but this was not a save situation and Marmol pitched like the old, bad, pre-closer Marmol. Even after a slick DP got him to two out and no one on, he walked a pair and gave up a two-run double to a .176 hitter, Drew Sutton. (Can you tell the difference between Drew Stubbs and Drew Sutton? I can't.) How can you do that? In any case, Angel Guzman should have been in this game instead of Marmol, but apparently, Guzman is deep in Lou's doghouse after the two had words the other day in Pittsburgh when Guzman didn't agree with Lou's decision to yank him.

That simply can't happen. Guzman was wrong to do that, but at a certain point, the manager has to put the guy in the game who has the best chance of doing the job at hand. In this case, in a tie game in the ninth inning, it was Guzman's role, not Marmol's.

So at this point, what to do? Play guys who have a chance to be contributors next year. Bobby Scales, thank you for your moment in the sun, but you're not going to be a Cub in 2010. Jake Fox should be in LF every day while Alfonso Soriano is on the shelf, in order to either determine his role in 2010 or increase his trade value. Same for Andres Blanco; he should be playing SS every day, particularly since Theriot is hitting .211 since August 15. Let's find out whether Blanco is someone who could be the primary backup infielder next year. And let's not put Aaron Miles into any more games, please.

I'll have lots more to say about 2010 once this season has finally ended. It's been difficult -- as you all well know -- in many ways. Until then, try to enjoy the rest of the season; perhaps there will be a thrilling comeback win, or a great individual performance to enjoy. It's still baseball, and we all love the game, or at least I hope you do. We'll miss it when winter comes. And next year will bring new ownership and new hope. Keep the faith; someday, the Cubs WILL win the World Series. In the meantime, I'm off to the U2 concert tonight at Soldier Field; maybe I'll see you there.

Keep The Winning Streak Going: Cubs vs. Reds Preview, Friday 9/11, 1:20 CT

Al — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 14:30:26 -0000

by Gene J. Puskar - AP

May there be many scenes like this today -- Cubs runners scoring.

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Since the Cubs last faced the Reds in Cincinnati on August 5, the Reds are 17-16. That sounds decent, but they have been an extremely streaky team. Starting on August 14, the Reds: lost five straight, then won one, lost two, won five, lost two, won seven, and lost four, their current streak (a four-game sweep at the hands of the Rockies). The seven-game winning streak -- two games longer than the Cubs' longest of the year -- includes a four-game sweep of the Pirates.

So, it should be time for the Cubs to extend that four-game Cincinnati losing streak to seven, to match their previous win streak. (And give the Cubs their longest winning streak of the year, too.)

Bruce Miles today tackles three topics we've discussed here at length recently: the futures of Jeff Baker, Milton Bradley and Carlos Marmol. Bruce correctly sums up what Jim and Lou did to ruin this year's bullpen (and without even mentioning Kevin Gregg):

If Jim Hendry is guilty of anything over the years when it comes to his bullpen, it's overthinking things and overpaying for veteran arms. Field manager Lou Piniella had a hand in things last off-season, when he basically ran Michael Wuertz out of town and Hendry traded for old favorite Aaron Heilman.

Wuertz, for whom the Cubs have nothing to show, is 6-1 with a 3.00 ERA and a tidy WHIP (walks plus hits per 1 inning pitched) of 1.01 with Oakland. Heilman is 2-3 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.

For next season, the Cubs ought to focus within. Keep Marmol the closer, let Angel Guzman set up and re-sign lefty John Grabow, who has been effective since his trade from Pittsburgh. Promote from within, and you might get the job done at a fraction of what it has cost the Cubs over the years for mediocrity and worse.

Beyond Guzman, Grabow and Marmol, the Cubs have a large number of good arms at Triple-A, many of whom we've seen this year (Justin Berg, Jeff Stevens, Esmailin Caridad) and at least two we haven't, but who will be in the Arizona Fall League (Andrew Cashner, John Gaub). AFL players are often on the fast track to the majors. It seems to me that you could put together a pretty decent major league bullpen out of some of those arms, rather than overpaying for mediocre veteran middle relievers. And closers, too; Gregg joins a long list of failed veteran acquired closers for the Cubs (Dave Smith, Doug Jones, Mel Rojas -- need I go on?).

Today's Starting Pitchers


Rich Harden Cubs	vs.	Justin Lehr Reds

9-8	W-L	4-1
4.10	ERA	4.43
162	SO	16
59	BB	19
23	HR	5
vs. Cin	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Rich Harden	9-8	25	24	0	0	0	0	134.0	115	68	61	23	59	162	4.10	1.30

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Justin Lehr	4-1	7	7	1	1	0	0	44.2	46	22	22	5	19	16	4.43	1.46

Today's game is a rematch of the August 5 game in Cincinnati where the Cubs failed to show up. Oh, they were there in body, but let Justin Lehr throw a four-hit shutout. Since then Lehr has been -- not so good, going 3-1 in five starts, but with a 5.58 ERA. That's the guy the Cubs need to pound today. He's walked 19 and struck out 16 in 44.2 innings, so patience at the plate today should help.

Rich Harden threw well enough on August 5 -- two earned runs in six innings. Playing at Wrigley, where the Cubs swept the Reds in July, should help. Harden threw one of those games, on July 26, allowing the Reds only one hit in six innings, a solo HR by Joey Votto. That's the only career hit Votto has had off Harden in 10 AB.

TV today is WGN, plus FSN Ohio (which means EI viewers get to hear the Brennamans. Turn the sound off). For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Reds site Red Reporter.

Once again, just two overflow threads today -- 2:30 and 3:30 pm CDT. If there's a need for another one, please post as a FanShot.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Cubs Tie Major League Record In 9-4 Pasting Of Pirates

Al — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 03:03:44 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

As long as you don't hurt that left shoulder, Aramis.

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PITTSBURGH -- Here's how bad it is for Pirates fans. The announced paid crowd of 17,862 was larger than Monday's, likely attracted by the giveaway of a bobblehead of golf legend Arnold Palmer, a Pittsburgh-area native who was being honored on his 80th birthday. Sitting in a premium seat near the Pirates' dugout, Palmer was serenaded by the entire crowd with "Happy Birthday" in between innings. The PA announcer asked everyone to stand and sing. There were two men sitting behind me, Pirates fans. One of them said to his buddy, "That's the only time we'll be up all night." To which his friend responded, "Yeah, that and going to the bathroom."

Gallows humor. I suppose that's what sustains those who keep coming to Pirates games.

Many of the crowd left early with their bobbleheads secure in hand, especially after the first eight Cubs all hit safely, and seven of them scored. The eight consecutive hits leading off a game tied a major league record, accomplished only five times previously. Another Cubs team is responsible for one of those other five, coincidentally against the Pirates, at Wrigley Field on April 21, 1973. The Cubs scored six in the first that day, but had to hang on for a 10-9 victory.

Not so today -- the seven-run outburst in the first inning, which was delayed ten minutes for the lengthy ceremony honoring Palmer, would have been enough. Ryan Dempster held the Pirates to two runs while he was still in the game; he ran out of gas in the seventh and ex-Pirate Tom Gorzelanny and Angel Guzman allowed a pair of runs to score, charged to Dempster, so Dempster wound up with all four runs accountable to his record. Dempster, although asked to sacrifice in the first inning when another hit would have established a record, did contribute offensively with a RBI single in the top of the 7th.

In fairness to Zach Duke, several of the eight hits to start the game were of the seeing-eye single variety, just out of reach of Pirates infielders. After Duke finally finished the first inning, he got all the outs in the second and third on ground balls. When the Pirates began to nibble away at the lead with single runs in the second and third, I began to worry that this big first inning might be wasted.

Micah Hoffpauir put an end to those worries with a booming home run. Hoffpauir came in when Milton Bradley tweaked a hamstring in his second first-inning AB, when he flied to left to end the inning. According to Twittermyer, Bradley is supposed to get Wednesday off anyway.

Which leads me to wonder who's going to be playing in the Cubs' outfield tomorrow. Sam Fuld apparently can only play defense -- the hand he banged up making that catch in LA a couple of weeks ago is still bothering his hitting. Like the rest of you, I was puzzled as to why Jake Fox wasn't starting in LF today with the lefthander Duke going. There's absolutely no reason why Fox shouldn't be out there Wednesday afternoon against his old Iowa teammate Kevin Hart.

The Cubs are now 25-6 against the Pirates since September 8, 2007; this would be a real nice time to post a sweep. Wins, after all, are wins. Nice to meet Curtis and Dave, two BCB members attending Tuesday's game; Dave drove all the way from Columbus, Ohio and back just to see the Cubs win (and had to drive back right after the game, as he said, "to let the dog out"). Let's finish this season strong, regardless of whether it results in a postseason berth or not.

Lee's Two Homers Lead Cubs To History-Making Win Over Pirates

Al — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 21:01:04 -0000

by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Nice work, D-Lee. Your new baby seems to have energized you!

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PITTSBURGH -- A gentle rain fell for most of today's 4-2 Cubs win over the Pirates, but it didn't stop Derrek Lee, who hit a pair of homers for the second time in three days, his 30th and 31st of 2009. In so doing, he achieved his fourth 30+ homer season (and third as a Cub). Maybe -- and I'm only joking here, really -- Lee and his wife Christina need to have more kids. The birth of D-Lee's son Dylan seems to have energized him since his return.

Let's not forget Ted Lilly's performance, either; in six solid innings he gave up only two hits, a home run to Andy LaRoche and an RBI double to Brandon Moss, accounting for the only two Pirates runs. Had Lilly not uncharacteristically issued three walks -- his control has been outstanding this year -- he might have thrown a one-hitter.

That is, if Lou had let him go farther. Lilly was pulled after only 87 pitches and six innings, even though he was cruising. That made the Cubs fans -- maybe 40% of the 14,673 at PNC Park today -- a little nervous, but the pen was outstanding today. John Grabow (more on him below the fold) and Angel Guzman had eight-pitch innings and Carlos Marmol looked like the Marmol of 2008, dispatching the Bucs easily with 11 strikes in 13 pitches.

The rest of the team did just enough to beat a dispirited-looking Pirates team (one sign seen today read: "I Wish I Were A Detroit Lions Fan"); Milton Bradley accounted for the other Cubs RBI with a single. The rain, not much more than a mist most of the afternoon, sent most of the crowd out of the exposed seats to the concourse or seats underneath the upper-deck overhang.

Which, fortunately, was where my seat, behind first base was located, and now you'll find out why I said "more about John Grabow below the fold". I happened to find myself sitting right behind Grabow's wife and several members of her family, including some extremely cute small kids (nephew & niece, I think) wearing black Pirates Grabow jerseys and Cubs caps that had been embroidered with "#43" on the side. I gave them a BCB card and asked one of the relatives to pass it along to Grabow. So John -- if you're reading here, welcome, outstanding game today and you've done a really nice job since the trade. We hope you stay.

I have been to PNC Park before, in 2003, so I'll save my longer exploration of the park for tomorrow night and post about it Wednesday morning. Suffice to say that I was surprised to learn the crowd was as small as it was -- I thought it would have been announced as at least about 20,000 tickets sold, though it couldn't have been much more than half that in the park. The weather certainly had something to do with the small turnout, but so does the Pirates' performance and their constant shipping away of any young stars they have. I spoke to a man around my age who had a couple of 8 or 9 year olds with him -- he said they come mainly for the experience of baseball, not to expect the Pirates to win. That's really sad -- they are turning off the next generation of fans completely. I'd expect less than 10,000 announced tomorrow night, particularly now that the Cubs' win today has clinched a losing season for the Pirates, setting a North American major league sports (not just baseball, but all four major sports) record of 17 consecutive losing seasons. I'd expect that record to be extended by at least four or five more years. (The Bucs were also mathematically eliminated from the NL Central race today.)

For the second day in a row there was a foul ball in my section; yesterday, it glanced off my wrist and was picked up by, of all people, a guy wearing a White Sox jersey. Today, it bounced off a seat in front of me and landed a couple of rows in front. Luck? Who knows? What I do know is that in the other two years I have seen the Cubs play in Pittsburgh -- 1984 and 2003 -- they made the postseason both times. It's still a longshot, but at this writing the Reds lead the Rockies 3-1; a Cincinnati win means a game gained. Don't give up. Not quite yet.

2009 Season In Microcosm: Cubs Lose Ugly 6-2 Game To Mets

Al — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 12:00:51 -0000

by Frank Franklin II - AP

You deserved better, Z.

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NEW YORK -- I drove all the way from Chicago for that?

The Cubs' fading playoff hopes dimmed further Friday night in a 6-2 loss to the Mets that both teams tried really hard to lose. The Cubs were more successful in that losing effort.

The game featured three errors, at least two easily catchable fly balls that were dropped, the Cubs leaving the bases loaded three times (including with nobody out in the seventh) and scoring only one run through all those bases-loaded situations (naturally, when it didn't really mean anything any more). The Mets put up five runs in the eighth inning when Ryan Theriot couldn't throw out the admittedly fast Luis Castillo on a routine ground ball to short, and later in the inning a two-run single got past a pulled-in infield with the score still a manageable 3-1. Had the infield been at normal depth, the ball would have likely been hit right at Aramis Ramirez for a double play. Yes, one run would have scored -- unless A-Ram would have been able to throw to the plate, and I know that's a contact play, but still.

Still is right. The Cubs should have blown the game open in the seventh inning, when it was 1-0 and they loaded the bases with nobody out. I really don't know what to say -- the Cubs left 12 men on base in all and it was, as the headline said, an ugly, ugly game, leaving the Cubs seven games out of the wild-card lead with 29 to go.

Lou again said in his postgame press conference, "I don't know what to do." Well, here's what you can do, Lou. How about leaving Angel Guzman in to throw another inning? Guzman had thrown only 10 pitches in efficiently dispatching the Mets in the seventh, keeping the score at 1-0. There was no particular reason to take him out -- his batting order spot wasn't coming up till the 8th. Lou seems to have an aversion to using a relief pitcher for more than an inning -- unless, of course, the reliever has already thrown a huge number of pitches in the first inning he throws, making it almost certain he'll blow up in the second one.

Kevin Gregg and John Grabow didn't have it last night -- Gregg wasn't really a surprise, but Grabow was -- and maybe Guzman would have kept the score close.

With Derrek Lee still out of the lineup due to the birth of his second child on Thursday, Micah Hoffpauir got the start at 1B. Hoffpauir was returning to New York for the first time since he had his best major league day last September 25, when he went 5-for-5 with a pair of homers. Unfortunately, the site of that game is now a parking lot; Hoffpauir went 0-for-4 and Lou sent Jake Fox up to PH for him in the 9th (Fox struck out to end it).

All of this ruined an outstanding outing from Carlos Zambrano, who threw six really good innings and only allowed a handful of balls out of the infield. One of those balls, unfortunately, was Cory Sullivan's home run off the RF upper-deck facade, making the score 1-0 in the second inning. There it stood till the Cubs managed to tie it up in the 8th on a bizarre play where three Mets fielders let Milton Bradley's popup drop between them; Bradley hustled into second and eventually scored on Jeff Baker's single. After the horrible bottom of the 8th, the Cubs got a consolation run on an error and loaded the bases again in the 9th, but then the Mets summoned K-Rod. Francisco Rodriguez hasn't been lights-out as he was last year for the Angels, when he set the ML save record, but he was good enough to finish off a dispirited Cubs team.

I didn't get a chance to fully walk around Citi Field last night, but my first impression is: kinda generic. There's nothing that screams "New York" about the place, and I understand Mets fans were extremely unhappy about the entry rotunda, which is supposed to evoke the Brooklyn Dodgers' Ebbets Field. That's all well and good, but there's apparently absolutely no Mets history or Mets logos (except for one on top of the dugout) anywhere in the place. They're working on changing that, from what I hear, after numerous (justifiable, it seems) complaints from Mets fans. The sightlines were decent from my seat halfway down the RF line, but one thing that isn't good: the out-of-town scoreboard. Hard to read and tucked away far above the LF seats, it finally gave up on trying to show AL scores last night.

Mets fans didn't give me too much grief last night, nor did I hear any dissing of Cubs fans; I think their own bad season had them commiserating with us. I would, at least, like to see a strong finish to this year. A win today would be a nice start on that. The game preview thread will post at 10:30 am CDT.

Indefensible: Cubs Defense And Managing Shoddy In 5-0 Loss To White Sox

Al — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 04:12:50 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

This kind of sums up the entire 2009 season.

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SOMEWHERE NEAR CLEVELAND -- Finally in for the evening after driving halfway to NYC from Chicago, before I recap the Cubs' 5-0 loss to the White Sox on Thursday, I wanted to say a few words about some of the behavior in the game threads.

We are all frustrated with the play of this team and particularly Alfonso Soriano, who's had a tough year while being injured and not really telling anyone for four months and trying to play through it.

Today's dropped fly ball really summed up not only his, but the Cubs' entire season. However, threatening him with death really isn't called for. This is baseball. It's a sport that's supposed to provide us with enjoyment, and perhaps one day the fulfillment of our dreams of a Cubs World Series. All I ask here is that you try to behave as you would around other people when you're on this site, particularly in the game threads, which I know can get kind of heated. Please keep it clean and don't make threats -- I know it doesn't feel very good to see losses like this. Just try to keep things in perspective. Thanks.

At this point in the season, with Soriano clearly still hurting -- it was impossible to tell, even sitting as close as I was to him in left field, whether his attempt to do his usual "hop" under A.J. Pierzynski's fly ball, or he just slipped on a piece of turf -- maybe it's time to shut him down. Soriano didn't make excuses:

"I slipped, and when I slipped I lost my balance," Soriano said. "I don't make an excuse, but that's the first time it happened -- that I slipped and missed the ball."

That wasn't the only problem, and in fact, as Aramis Ramirez went on to say:

"The last time I checked, we didn't score any runs," Aramis Ramirez said, "so even if [Soriano] makes that play, we lose, 1-0. Nobody wants to make a mistake on the field. 'Sori' doesn't want to make mistakes. Nobody wants to be embarrassed like that. We have to pick it up, that's the bottom line."

Ryan Dempster nearly matched Tom Seaver -- er, Carlos Torres, he just looked like Seaver out there Thursday afternoon -- by allowing no earned runs in seven-plus innings. Jake Fox's error on a routine pickoff throw allowed Chris Getz to go to second base in the second inning, where he scored on Alexei Ramirez's single. A 1-0 loss is tough enough to take, but then there was the managing problem.

When Fox led off the seventh inning, there was absolutely no excuse for him to still be on the bases. Your best bet defensively is to get him out of there in the next inning for Micah Hoffpauir, so why was he still running with nobody out? That is the one place, the ONE possible place, where Aaron Miles could have been useful. If Miles is running for Fox, he probably scores on Jeff Baker's single. Or maybe Mike Quade holds Fox (or Miles) at third base and there are runners on the corners with nobody out and then maybe Ozzie Guillen lifts Torres for Octavio Dotel. The Cubs have hit Dotel well since he signed with the White Sox -- and maybe then the whole game turns out differently.

Lou compounded his mistake of not using Miles in the one possible place where he could actually have been useful, by sending him up to pinch-hit in the last of the eighth for PH Mike Fontenot, who had already been announced to PH for Angel Guzman, when Ozzie called on lefthander Matt Thornton.

Now, think about this for a minute. Miles hasn't done anything useful all year. He's hitting .226 vs. LHP coming into this game, and .095 (2-for-23) as a pinch-hitter. Why on Earth would you put him in that situation at all, much less trailing 3-0 in the 8th inning? Send up Andres Blanco. Or Geovany Soto. Or even Carlos Zambrano, for heaven's sake. Miles grounded to short, which was utterly predictable.

Thanks, Lou. It wasn't all your fault, but it was yet another situation in which you used the wrong player in the wrong situation at the wrong time. Lou seems, again, disinterested and defeated, as noted in his postgame remarks, where he said about three sentences and didn't take questions. Maybe it's time for him to go.

It just wasn't the Cubs' day, and that started two hours before game time when a snafu resulted in anyone who had actually had their ticket scanned on June 16 (the original game date, and that included me) denied entry until the Cubs released those barcodes from their system (it took a few minutes before they figured it out, even though they had had two other postponed and rescheduled games earlier this year where no such problems occurred). Fortunately, they worked it out and everyone got in with a minimum of fuss.

And, the Rockies actually cooperated Thursday by losing, keeping the Cubs six games behind (five in the loss column) with 30 to go. It's still not an impossible task, but winning a few in a row right now would be the thing to do. Maybe starting in New York. Keep the faith. I'll report from Citi Field after Friday night's game.

"Not With A Bang, But A Whimper": Cubs Lose To Nationals 5-4, Close Play At Plate Goes Unargued

Al — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 22:11:09 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Nyjer Morgan of the Nats jammed his hand on this play and left the game.

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What bothered me most about the play in the seventh inning where Derrek Lee tried to score on a pitch that got away from Nats catcher Josh Bard isn't that plate umpire Bill Welke blew the call -- Bard tagged Lee with his glove, but the ball was in his hand, and Lee had actually made a neat slide to try to get around Bard.

What really bothered me is that there was no fiery Lou Piniella charging out of the dugout, cap-throwing, yelling, screaming, supporting his team. I'm not usually one to say that kind of action from a manager is justified -- but this time, when the call was so clearly wrong, and the run would have tied the game, I think a manager who's engaged, interested, trying every straw he can grab on to for his team's fading postseason hopes, would be out there in Welke's face, getting tossed if he has to, getting a smallish crowd (maybe 20,000 in the house of an announced 35,174) loud and supportive.

Nope. Lou sat on his hands, the way he's sat on his hands much of this year. I'm not sure what Lou's deal is. He's given a lukewarm answer to direct questions about whether he wants to come back for the option year he signed on his contract last offseason ("I'm planning on returning", Lou said), but he's acting like a guy who wants to retire to pina coladas on his back porch in Tampa.

The Cubs lost to the Nationals 5-4, losing a series they should have won, and this play wasn't the only reason they lost, obviously. But it is a symptom of a team curiously out of sync; they paid good lip service (in the quotes I posted this morning) to the idea that they're still in playoff contention (and I suppose, by the very tips of their fingernails, they still are), but they're not playing with the urgency that comes with such contention.

The game, really, was lost in the first inning when, after Randy Wells gave up three to the Nats, the Cubs loaded the bases with one out and failed to score. Jessica asked me if there's any way to find out how many times that's happened. I said, "You mean bases loaded and not scored? Plenty." She meant how many times in the first inning. I'm not sure if there is a way to break that down, but it occurred to me that there have been many such times in 2009. The Cubs left RISP in the first, fourth and ninth, in addition to Lee being cut down wrongly at the plate in the seventh, seven left on base in all, including the tying run with only one out in the ninth. Ryan Theriot, who used to be so good at hitting the other way last year, could have tied the game with one of those flares to right that he used to hit with regularity. Instead, he grounded to third.

Wells threw OK after the first inning, giving up only three more hits; unfortunately, one of those hits was a homer to Adam Dunn, his 34th (that's nine more than any Cub has, and I still think those would have looked pretty good in blue pinstripes, no matter how bad the defense), and that wound up as the difference in the game. After Dunn's homer Wells, Kevin Gregg, Angel Guzman, and John Grabow kept the Nats hitless, issuing only four walks (three of them to Willie Harris, who had to come into the game after Nyjer Morgan jammed his hand stealing a pair of bases in the first inning).

But the Cubs simply couldn't do anything off Sean Burnett and Mike MacDougal, and another loss is chalked up.

What is more interesting to discuss this evening are the waiver claims made on Aaron Heilman and Rich Harden, supposedly both by National League teams. Thanks to Heilman's best BCB friend brian custer for posting this FanShot about the claim while I was at the game.

I will tell you that sitting as close to the Cubs bullpen as I was, I did not see Heilman sitting there during the game, and he is usually very recognizable, since he wears the old-fashioned blue pullup stirrup socks. It may very well be that the Cubs have already let him go -- I sure hope so, and I can't imagine any NL contending team really thinks they can help him.

About Harden, that's an interesting dilemma. I think it would be worth exploring signing Harden, who is a free agent, in the offseason -- but that could still be done even if a trade is worked out with some other NL team. I wouldn't just give him away, as he has thrown very well since the All-Star break and could command a decent prospect or two, and it wouldn't cost the acquiring team much money, considering there's only about $1 million left on his contract for this season. On the other hand, if Harden is offered arbitration by the Cubs and leaves, the Cubs (I believe; correct me if I'm wrong) are due two amateur draft picks due to Harden's Type A free agent status.

So the Cubs have 72 hours to either work out a deal or pull Harden back from waivers. If they can make a trade that would benefit the team in the future, I'd say do it, even as I hold on to faint hopes that the Cubs will make postseason play.

The Mets come in tomorrow. That's a team the Cubs should be able to beat. But then, I said that about the Nationals, too. Keep the faith, anyway.