SB Nation - Ryan Dempster

Ryan Dempster And Stan Mikita Open Wrigley Skating Rink

Al — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 19:00:17 -0000

The Cubs and the Chicago Park District have teamed up to open "Rink At Wrigley", an outdoor ice skating rink available to the public from now till February. Click on the link for hours and prices.

Yesterday, Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster and Blackhawks Hall of Famer Stan Mikita teamed up to help open the rink. BCB photographer David Sameshima was there. More photos after the jump.

Click on photo to open a larger version in a new browser window

Click on photo to open a larger version in a new browser window. All photos by David Sameshima

Heroes of the Zeros: The Starting Rotation

Slyde — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 14:21:24 -0000

It's that time of the decade when people start creating lists of the best and worst whatevers of the past 10 years. I was going to do that too, but then I decided to make you guys do all of the work. So, over the next two weeks we will be voting on the players that we think deserve the title of All-Decade team member for the Cincinnati Reds. Each day, I'll present you with a new position, and you get to vote. While we do this, the running totals will be kept secret so that you will be surprised when we announce the final roster on December 31st. The maybe we can finally put to bed what might be the worst decade in Reds history.

We'll start with where it started to end, the starting rotation. The Reds haven't exactly been stocked with quality starting pitching during the decade, but you still have to figure out who the top 5 of the decade are. To qualify for the team, a pitcher must have spent at least 50% of his time with the Reds as a starter and he must have made at least 20 starts in a Reds uniform. The rest of the qualifications are up to you. I've listed the stats for the 23 pitchers that meet our minimum qualifications. The voting form is in this post after the jump.

Click header to sort table by column
	ERA+	FIP	GS	Years	G	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	HR	OPS
Jose Acevedo	78	5.17	54	2001-2004	68	1	0	16	21	.432	304.1	334	198	189	97	222	5.59	58	.830
Bronson Arroyo	113	4.47	136	2006-2009	136	8	3	53	50	.515	871.2	887	424	387	260	630	4.00	119	.755
Homer Bailey	81	4.92	37	2007-2009	37	0	0	12	13	.480	195.0	217	129	118	97	132	5.45	23	.803
Rob Bell	92	5.93	35	2000-2001	35	1	0	7	13	.350	184.2	176	112	105	90	145	5.12	41	.840
Brandon Claussen	85	4.96	57	2004-2006	57	0	0	15	27	.357	309.2	351	195	176	120	223	5.12	47	.824
Johnny Cueto	94	4.87	61	2008-2009	61	0	0	20	25	.444	345.1	350	191	177	129	290	4.61	53	.792
Lance Davis	97	4.66	20	2001	20	1	0	8	4	.667	106.1	124	60	56	34	53	4.74	12	.808
Ryan Dempster	66	5.27	35	2002-2003	37	1	0	8	12	.400	204.1	236	150	145	108	150	6.39	30	.856
Elmer Dessens	115	4.47	80	2000-2002	104	2	1	28	27	.509	530.1	564	246	232	148	306	3.94	66	.756
Osvaldo Fernandez	88	4.60	28	2000-2001	35	1	0	9	9	.500	159.0	172	95	93	64	71	5.26	14	.775
Aaron Harang	106	4.07	193	2003-2009	195	13	6	69	73	.486	1231.1	1288	606	572	315	1043	4.18	169	.767
Pete Harnisch	92	5.80	29	2000-2001	29	3	1	9	9	.500	166.1	181	105	94	63	88	5.09	32	.836
Jimmy Haynes	84	5.05	56	2002-2004	57	1	0	17	25	.405	306.0	354	188	172	145	183	5.06	38	.820
Luke Hudson	87	5.44	25	2002-2005	31	0	0	10	11	.476	139.0	124	83	76	81	98	4.92	18	.790
Cory Lidle	80	4.95	24	2004	24	3	1	7	10	.412	149.0	170	95	88	44	93	5.32	24	.832
Kyle Lohse	101	4.24	32	2006-2007	33	2	1	9	17	.346	194.2	213	109	99	52	131	4.58	23	.777
Eric Milton	77	5.40	66	2005-2007	66	0	0	16	27	.372	370.1	439	256	240	103	231	5.83	73	.850
Ramon Ortiz	80	5.66	30	2005	30	1	0	9	11	.450	171.1	206	110	102	51	96	5.36	34	.882
Steve Parris	98	5.10	33	2000	33	0	0	12	17	.414	192.2	227	109	103	71	117	4.81	30	.858
Elizardo Ramirez	75	5.30	26	2005-2007	31	0	0	4	14	.222	142.2	176	106	97	47	86	6.12	24	.876
Ron Villone	87	5.92	23	2000	35	2	0	10	10	.500	141.0	154	95	85	78	77	5.43	22	.871
Edinson Volquez	128	3.90	41	2008-2009	42	0	0	21	8	.724	245.2	201	107	94	125	253	3.44	20	.681
Paul Wilson	86	5.00	66	2003-2005	66	1	0	20	21	.488	396.2	450	231	215	130	240	4.88	60	.817

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/13/2009.

I will only be accepting your first vote, so don't bother trying to stuff the ballot box, you cheaters. I don't care how much you want Jimmy Haynes in this rotation Dan O'Brien, you only get one vote.

The NL Central Offseason Revue: Ursine Children

the red baron — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 19:43:23 -0000

Sure, I've used it before. It's a good picture, damn it.

View full size photo »

But first, a story. (Just so you know it's a Baron post.)

Last weekend, my mother and I went shopping. The Cherokee Street Antique Row Association was holding their annual Cookie Spree, and we go every year. There's always people milling around, free hot apple cider, and most of the shops are decorated.

We met up in South County, deciding it was a better idea to take one car. Mom tends to get motion sickness when not driving, so I generally just ride with her. We headed up 55 toward the city, then exited at the 4500 block of Broadway.

At the bottom of the ramp was an old woman holding a sign. A square of cardboard scrawled all over in black marker, I couldn't read exactly what was written but the message was clear nonetheless. It was cold out, and the ragged old overcoat she was clutching around her looked woefully inadequate. I've been conned before, I'm sure, but this was no panhandler. This was an old woman with no place to go who badly needed help.

We came to a stop at the bottom of the ramp, and I dug out my wallet. Mom reached for her purse, and I told her I would get it. I opened my wallet and grabbed the first two bills in it, a ten and a twenty. Then, guided by some internal calculus I don't at all understand, I put the ten back. I handed my mother the twenty, she motioned the old woman over, and gave it to her. The old woman said something, toothless mouth moving quickly, blessing us and wishing us well, but by then the car was moving and I couldn't entirely tell what it was. We continued on our way, had hot chocolate and apple cider and cookies. I bought an antique light fixture; it seemed like a fine day.

I tell you all this not to make you think I'm some sort of saint for giving this old woman twenty dollars, but because ever since then I haven't been able to stop thinking about the ten dollars I didn't give her. I had almost $300 in my wallet that day, and a credit card nowhere near the limit to boot. In no way, shape, or form would that extra ten dollars have hurt me, yet I put it back. And worst of all, I don't understand why. I like to think I would do whatever it takes to help someone in need, but apparently that only goes so far. Apparently there's a price on my generosity, and it's painfully low. A truly good person would have been willing to hand over everything they had in hand and never thought twice about it; I certainly didn't need another antique to litter my already cluttered house.

We went back the same way later, on the way back to my car, but the old woman was gone. I hope what I gave her was enough to help, but I can't stop thinking about that moment, when I arbitrarily decided the limits of how much I was willing to help another human being.

I've had these posts in mind for a while now, trying to take a look around the division at our rivals and what their offseasons might look like, but simply hadn't had the chance to do so yet. With my inability to post a full post on Wednesday, I thought I might ask Dan if he minded me taking today. He seemed amenable to the idea, unsurprising given the dearth of real meat to work with this time of year and what is undoubtedly a crowded schedule for everyone. So here I am, telling you what the Cubs need to do this winter.

I begin with the Cubs because they are our chief rivals and also because it simply fits. We care more about the Cubs. So here we are.

As the Cubbies head into their first offseason with new ownership, the question of payroll undoubtedly must be raised. Their new owner, Tom Ricketts, has pledged to update the stadium and build a winner, but just how much one will impact the other remains to be seen. For now, it looks as if Ricketts is willing to pour money into the franchise in order to win, and we'll have to operate under that assumption.

Offense

The Cubs' offense took a huge hit last season from the high times of 2008, due to several players underperforming. Alfonso Soriano was the biggest culprit, stumbling to an OPS+ of 84 after three seasons over 115. Geovany Soto went through an awful sophomore slump, falling from a 118 OPS+ to 79. Aramis Ramirez missed significant time with a shoulder injury, and Derrek Lee struggled mightily early in the season before turning it around.

There were bright spots, such as the improvement Kosuke Fukudome made from his first season in the majors or the continued non-suckitude of Ryan Theriot, but overall it was an intensely disappointing season for Chicago at the plate. In 2008 the Cubs scored 855 runs; in 2009 they plated only 707. Enough said.

Starting Pitching

If the Cubs' offense was decidedly disappointing, the pitching was underwhelmingly good. Carlos Zambrano continued his human roller coaster act, yet still managed to post an ERA under 4.00 for the eighth straight year. Nonetheless, the Big Z is no longer quite the intimidating force at the front of a rotation he once was. He's still solid, but he doesn't really scare you anymore. (Well, unless you happen to be something edible or punchable in the dugout, that is.)

Ryan Dempster fell off from his 2008 performance, but was still a plus pitcher for Chicago. He was awful much of the early portion of the year, but came on strong late to lower his ERA to 3.65. Dempster provides much-needed innings, and at a reasonably high level. After Z and Dumpster, though, things get a bit murkier.

Ted Lilly, a relatively unsung contributor to the Cubs' back-to-back division titles, has had shoulder surgery already this offseason. It was minor shoulder surgery, yes, but then again, I'm not entirely sure there is such a thing. Lilly was absolutely brilliant in 2009, posting a 3.61 FIP, but until he can prove his shoulder is unequivocally sound, he has to be a concern.

Perhaps the brightest spot of all for the Cubs in '09 was the performance of their rookie hurler, Randy Wells. He went 12-10, 3.05 in his first extended taste of the majors at 27. His peripherals were mostly in line as well, so it doesn't appear he did it all with smoke and mirrors. Still, Wells is a relatively unknown commodity, and may simply be waiting until the time is right to give up a crippling home run, then rip open his jersey, revealing the Cardinal jersey underneath. So there's that.

The Cubs' fifth starter spot was, for the most part, a disaster. Sean Marshall continued to impersonate Sean Marshall. The Cubs acquired Tom Gorzelanny from the Pirates, and he picked up basically where he left off in Pittsburgh. There were positives in his performance, but for the most part it was another disappointing season for the man once voted Most Likely to Actually Live Up to His Billing among all Pittsburgh left-handed starting prospects.

Relief

Carlos Marmol is sort of the pitching equivalent of a British motorcycle. Yeah, it's a whole lot of fun when it's working, and it certainly looks impressive, but damned if the thing isn't broken down and spilling oil all over your driveway more often than not. Marmol has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, but not much idea where it's going a fair amount of the time. Hitters did a much better job of laying off his slider in 2009, and he had a tough time throwing it for strikes. He still struck out a bunch of hitters (93 in 74 innings), and didn't give up many hits (43), but he also walked 65 hitters, leading to a 1.46 WHIP fueled almost entirely by batters simply standing there and doing nothing.

Kevin Gregg was solid, though not the force the Cubs were undoubtedly hoping for, and he has now departed via free agency. Angel Guzman was impressive, combining a repertoire just a step down from Marmol's with actual control, but he remains very young and was shut down late in the season with an injury. Neal Cotts was, um, how do I put this?- shitty, only to be replaced as the primary lefty by John Grabow. Grabow did what he always does, and should be a definite plus in the 'pen for 2010.

Jeff Samardzija continued his enigmatic career arc, following up his 2.28 ERA in 2008 with a 7.53 in 2009. Sure, he's talented, but at some point Samardzija is going to have to come up with something more than a big fastball and a passing resemblance to Andy Samberg if he wants to succeed at the major league level.

Needs

Any discussion of the Chicago Cubs' offseason has to begin with the outfield, where they badly need to figure things out. Milton Bradley wasn't a bad player for them in 2009; on the contrary, he was probably still their best outfielder, but all signs point to him being dealt this offseason, and I'm not sure I can blame the Cubs. As much as Bradley wasn't the problem with the team this year, I just don't know if his relationship with the fans, not to mention his teammates, is a tenable one.

If Bradley is dealt, the Cubs will have to come up with someone to try and replicate his offensive contributions, and several names have been floated. Rick Ankiel was thought to be their first choice until fairly recently, but things seem to have cooled slightly on that front since Scott Boras made his comments about multiple years and big dollars for Swingin' Dick's services. The Cubs don't seem to have much interest in Matt Holliday, perhaps being a bit gun shy after witnessing how horribly wrong a seven-year deal for an outfielder can go. They also haven't been mentioned all that much in the Jason Bay sweepstakes, so I have to assume they're looking at lower-hanging fruit.

Beyond the outfield, it's somewhat doubtful the Cubs will be able to make any substantial upgrades to their offense. Both corner infield positions are set, and rightfully so. Soto will be looking for a bounceback season; it's far too early to write him off as a one-year wonder. The only spots the Cubs could look to upgrade are the middle infield positions, but I'm not sure how much help is really available at those spots this offseason. Perhaps the Cubbies get involved in trying to trade for Dan Uggla? They do have an exciting young middle infield prospect in the pipeline named Starlin Castro, who has garnered plenty of comparisons to Edgar Renteria, and could draw interest from Florida, but little beyond that.

The bullpen has to be an area of concern, and priority one has to be sorting out who will at least begin the season as the Chicago closer. Marmol, I'm sure, will have the inside track on the job, but after his 2009 performance it shouldn't be a foregone conclusion. I doubt the Cubs will go outside the organisation to find a stopper, but it's likely they'll try to acquire at least an arm or two to bolster the overall depth of the 'pen.

Priorities

Deal with Milton Bradley situation. Trade is most likely outcome.
Acquire offensive upgrade to replace Bradley's production. Left-handed hitter would be desirable.
Shore up bullpen, likely through trades. (Bradley?)
Look at other possible offensive upgrades, i.e. Uggla or Mark DeRosa as utility player.
Acquire 5th starter/ insurance arm for Ted Lilly.
???
World Series title.

The Bottom Line

The Cubs are by no means in dire straights. They underachieved badly last season, but the offense should receive a boost from a full season from Ramirez and, hopefully, better years from Soriano, Soto, and Lee. The same can't really be said for the pitching, which performed right about where one would expect, given the talent level. The starting rotation will remain their biggest strength, while the bullpen remains somewhat suspect.

At this point, the Cubs have to be considered the Cards' main competition for the division again in 2009. Both teams are clearly a step or two ahead of the pack.

There you go, folks. One in the can, four to go.

The Baron's Playlist for the 11th of December, 2009

"The Blizzard" - Camera Obscura A cover of the Jim Reeves/ Johnny Cash classic. Any CO fans out there (and I know there are some), you might want to check out their holiday 7" release, with the Blizzard backed by Swans.

"My Wife and My Dead Wife" - Robyn Hitchcock and the Egyptians

"Oh You Pretty Things" - Peter Noone I just heard this on Pop! The Beat Bubble Bursts yesterday morning, and I can't stop listening to it. It's a Bowie cover by the former Herman's Hermits frontman, and it has a bit of an early Harry Nilsson vibe to it. Really great.

"Intermezzo Sinfonico" from Mascagni's Cavalleria Rusticana - James Levine

"Take On Me" - A.C. Newman Another tip of the hat to KDHX, this time to Nick Acquisto and the Space Parlour. Outstanding cover of the A-Ha classic.

Edit: And, of course, on the day I write this, some actual news comes down the pipeline, as the Cardinals have now apparently made an official offer to Scott Boras and Matt Holliday. Sigh. They couldn't have waited just one more day? Really?

MLB Trade Rumors: Alfonso Soriano to the Braves for Derek Lowe?

raygu — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 18:00:16 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

4 months ago: Chicago Cubs' Alfonso Soriano launches a grand slam off Houston Astros relief pitcher Chris Sampson during the 13th inning of a baseball game Monday, July 27, 2009, at Wrigley Field in Chicago. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

View full size photo »

Everyone knows that the Braves are looking to deal one of their excess starting pitchers, starting with Derek Lowe. We all know they will deal either Lowe or Javier Vazquez. How about dealing one bad contract for another? Alfonso Soriano to play left field for Derek Lowe?

The Cubs have been rumored to deal Milton Bradley to the Rays for Pat Burrell, but where would Burrell play? He can only play LF or maybe 1B, but the Cubs have Derrek Lee at 1B. It would make sense for the Braves as they need a power bat in their lineup, and they aren''t going to get alot if they deal Lowe, so why not take on another bad contract in Soriano.

Soriano will make $18 million in each of the next 5 years through 2014, while Lowe will make $15 million in 2010-2012. If the Cubs eat some of Soriano's contract, or throw in a prospect or two, it might even out the deal.

The Cubs would use Lowe to replace free agent starting pitcher Rich Harden, and team him up with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells in the Cubs rotation.

Does this deal make sense for both teams?

Poll

Who would hang up first in a proposed deal of Alfonso Soriano for Derek Lowe?

How Much Could Carl Pavano Get Through Arbitration?

Jesse — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:02:21 -0000

Six million? That's alright. Ten million? That's outta sight. Right?

When the Twins offered Carl Pavano arbitration on Tuesday, it didn't exactly come as a surprise. He was the only Minnesota free agent to receive an offer, and well, that really didn't come as a surprise either.

Pavano and his agent have made it clear that they intend to test the open market, but for a guy who A) has said he wouldn't mind a return to Minnesota, B) has said he's not really interested in finding himself on another new team, C) probably wants to play for a contender and D) would be entering a free agent market where salaries could be suppressed (hurrah collusion conspiracy theories!), does he really want to turn down the opportunity that's presented itself to him?

The burly right-hander turns 34 in early January, and is coming off of his first not just productive but healthy season since 2004 when he was still with the Marlins. I don't want to say the end is in sight for Carl, but realistically there are way more years in baseball behind him than in front of him.

We've talked before about how FanGraphs tends to over-value a player's production in terms of dollars, and it's no different with Pavano as they estimate that on the open market his production was worth $16.5 million dollars. Obviously there's no way his numbers would be worth that much money to replace. But he was probably worth more than the $1.5 million base he was on the books for in 2009.

Here's Pavano and six other guys who had similar seasons across a number of different categories; some are closer than others.

Player	Age	Team	IP	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/G	WHIP	FG Dollars
Carl Pavano	33	Indians/ Twins	199.1	4.00	6.64	1.76	3.77	1.17	1.37	$16.5
Nick Blackburn	27	Twins	205.1	4.37	4.29	1.79	2.39	1.09	1.37	$13.3
Mark Buehrle	30	White Sox	213.1	4.46	4.43	1.90	2.33	1.14	1.25	$15.2
James Shields	27	Rays	219.2	4.02	6.84	2.13	3.63	1.19	1.32	$18.3
Cole Hamels	25	Phillies	193.2	3.72	7.81	2.00	3.91	1.12	1.29	$16.9
Ryan Dempster	32	Cubs	200.0	3.87	7.74	2.93	2.65	0.99	1.31	$16.4
Scott Baker	27	Twins	200.0	4.08	7.29	2.16	3.38	1.26	1.19	$15.9

Blackburn was under team control last summer, but the rest of this fine cast of characters were all pitching under a contract in 2009:

Pavano: $1.5 M
Buehrle: $14.0 M
Shields: $1.5 M
Hamels: $4.35 M
Dempster: $8 M
Baker: $750 K

Immediately you see the problem. All of these guys are at different stages of their careers and at different contractual stages, and it's not realistic to just take the average of the six salaries for an estimate, which is just over $5 million. Or is it?

Here's a list of arbitration-eligible starters from last winter who were 30 or older, and what kind of a contract they received, although this won't help either because it's not free-agent arbitration:

Mike Gonzalez, 30, 1 year/$3.45 M
Brandon Backe, 30, 1 year/$1.55 M
Wandy Rodriguez, 30, 1 year/$2.6 M
Chris Capuano, 30, minor-league contract
Justin Duchscherer, 31, 1 year/$3.9 M
Todd Wellemeyer, 30, 1 year/$4.05 M

Which of course means Pavano is, more than likely, due more money than Wellemeyer received last year in his final year of arbitration. But how much?

A 34-year old Braden Looper made $4.75 million in 2009 after signing a contract with the Brewers. Coming out of his age-31 season Dempster signed a pretty substantial four-year deal with the Cubs. Randy Wolf (32) made a shade under $5 million this season, and Pavano's former rotation-mate Brady Penny (31 last season) made about the same. Jamie Moyer (older than baseball itself) made $6.5 million.

Those are the kind of guys Pavano can be grouped with: veterans who can provide innings and still be effective without breaking the bank and/or being the staff ace. So maybe $5 million doesn't actually sound so bad for an arbitration offer after all.

If that's all arbitration could garner Pavano, maybe he really might be better taking his chances on the market if he is concerned about the dollars.

Conclusions

With uncharacteristically low contracts offered last season, there has been a lot of talk that teams in baseball would rather non-tender certain arbitration-eligible players and forego the remaining year(s) of team control than pay what has suddenly become a price higher than market value. It's a financial luxury teams are choosing not to take advantage of. If this is indeed the case, some veterans who aren't sure of what the market will provide may be tempted to accept that arbitration offer.

Additionally, Pavano's recent history is blemished with injuries and an entire lost season, and that leads me to believe that the chances of his payday in arbitration being closer to $10 million than to $5 million aren't very high. But realistically, after the season he had in '09, I have little doubt that he could find a team willing to offer a two or three-year deal worth that $5 million...per year. If not more (I have some doubts about a continued suppression of spending in free agency this year). So in spite of the possibly lowered expectations on the free agent market and a guaranteed payday via the arbitration route, Carl will probably have the option of multiple years. Personally, that's not something I want to see the Twins take on.

It was a good move by Minnesota to make Pavano the offer, and oddly enough it puts them in a no-lose situation. If he accepts they'll get him for one year at what is likely to be a price that the team can easily absorb, and if not then the Twins receive a compensatory draft pick next June and the freedom to go after somebody else with that allocated cash. As long as this doesn't somehow turn into a multi-year, mega-millions fiasco, this is a good situation.

MLB Trade Rumors: Derrek Lee to Braves for Javier Vazquez??

raygu — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:00:52 -0000

I was thinking recently of who the Braves will trade one of their starting pitchers to since they will be trading one of them this offseason, or so they say. It's obvious that Derek Lowe will be hard to deal due to his contract (although all the experts thought he was a good value last offseason), and the Braves would be crazy to trade either Jair Jurrgens or Tommy Hanson. So Javier Vazquez is the obvious choice. But to who?

I say they deal him to the Cubs for Derrek Lee. Both Lee and Vazquez are in the last years of their deals with Lee making $13 million in 2010, and Vazquez making $11.5 million in 2010. Pretty even trade salary-wise, and the deal fills a need for both teams.

The Cubs need a starting pitcher after losing Rich Harden to free agency. Vazquez would join Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells in the rotation. With Lee gone, the Cubs could put hitting machine Jake Fox at first base on a full time basis. Fox is limited as to where he can play on the field as he is a poor defensive player, but he can hit and hit for power.

Here are Fox's 2009 stats:

Player	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	KO	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fox, Jake 1B CHC	216	23	56	11	44	14	47	0	0.259	0.311	0.468	0.779

Fox's HR/FB% was 13.3% in 2009, and he had a LD/GB/FB slash line of 19%/34%/47%, which tells me he hits alot of fly balls. Fox hit 11 HRs in just 216 ABs in 2009, and I think he could hit 25+ HRs if given a full time job in 2010.

But the Cubs have to wonder if they will get the same production out of Lee in 2010 that they got from him in 2009. I think they get something in between his 2009 and 2008 seasons. And Jake Fox can probably give them that for alot less money.

From the Braves point of view they get the big bat they need for the middle of their lineup, and he also fills their need for a first baseman. Lee would probably hit in the middle of the Braves lineup between Chipper Jones and Brian McCann.

Poll

Should the Cubs trade Derrek Lee to the Braves for Javier Vazquez?

Yes, they need the starting pitcher

204 votes

No, Fox can't field a lick. Sign a free agent pitcher and keep Lee.

249 votes

453 votes | Poll has closed

The Great General Manager Debate: NL Central Edition

davoag — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

The trade that made me lose faith in the Pirates suckitude...

View full size photo »

Part of my reaction to the Aki Iwamura trade was realizing how surprisingly competent the Pirates front office has become. They picked up a cost-controlled player for a replaceable part and improved their infield defense in the process. How is that a bad thing?

The funny thing is, the Pirates have been bad for so long, and it's so easy to dismiss their hires as actually being good baseball people, I had forgotten what Pittsburgh was actually getting in Neil Huntington. Here's another post from FanGraphs about what this trade means for the Pirates executives and here's an interview with Dan Fox, their database guru. Basically, the Pirates have a guy that gets to play with computer simulations all day until he can accurately evaluate and forecast players. I can get that job how?

It also made me start thinking about all the general managers in the National League Central. Which ones was I most afraid of? Which ones were a joke? Were there any teams that were run competently from year to year?

The thing that surprised me when I did my research was not that Ed Wade is probably the weakest GM in the Central, it's that so many of them have changed in the past two seasons. Justice loves to harp on how the organizational chaos Houston has gone through is affecting the club in many ways. Still, to see that so many of Wade's peers have also changed jobs recently is refreshing.

It's also scary, especially when at least four of these guys are competent-to-really good. After the jump is a look at each GM. Feel free to share your thoughts on who worries you the most in the comments...

Chicago Cubs

GM Jim Hendry

Tenure: Since July, 2002 ( 7 1/2 seasons)

Notes: The longest tenured general manager also has the biggest payroll of any team in the division. What does he do with all that money? Waste it. As scary as the Cubs lineup and rotation can be, Hendry alone makes me feel good about the Astros chances against Chicago in the near future.

This was a man who overpaid for guys like LaTroy Hawkins and Ted Lilly (though, to be fair, Lilly was excellent). He also spent a ton of money for Alfonso Soriano to play center field, and then promptly bumped him to left. Then, he spent a ton of money to bring in notorious pot-stirrer Milton Bradley, adding to the dangerous clubhouse dynamic that Lou Piniella always brings.

Funny thing, though, 134 million can buy you a damned good team. Hendry may have made mistakes in the past, but has done a good job of at least correcting them. He admitted failure with Rich Hill, shipping him off to Baltimore. He did turn Ryan Dempster into an effective pitcher in his new role with the Cubs. Hendry also has a productive farm system, with guys like Carlos Marmol and Geovanny Soto picking up the team on the cheap.

Would Hendry be this good without all that money? Probably not. In his market, though, it's tough not to make a big splash each season and have the fans be happy. Of all the GMs, though, I'm least afraid of Hendry.

Cincinnati Reds

GM Walt Jocketty

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.

The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot.

Milwaukee Brewers

GM Doug Melvin

Tenure: Since September 2002 (7 seasons)

Notes: One of the two longest tenured GMs in the NL Central, Melvin has had an up-and-down career in Milwaukee. Yes, he did draft Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder. Yes, he did trade for CC Sabathia. But, what have the Brewers actually won? This team seems to consistenly play for second place, which isn't bad, but until they can get over the hump mentally, Melvin may not be viewed more positively.

All indications are that Melvin is a more traditional GM. The Brewers don't leap out at you as a very sabermetric-friendly team, but they do have a little bit of the Oakland A's philosophy for a small market. The Brewers under Melvin consistently make unpopular decisions with players to avoid locking them up to bad contracts that hurt the team. Instead, they'll buy out arbitration years for a player, insuring cost certainty and rewarding young guys before they may be overpaid. Exhibit one is Ryan Braun.

Certainly, the biggest deficiency with the club is starting pitching. Melvin has shown a knack for making big moves (CC), regardless of his position as a small market team. He's also done a good job of drafting by talent and not positional needs (Matt LaPorta, anyone?). The obvious plus side of this is Melvin can then trade for pitching with his talent surplus. It will be interesting to see if Melvin can keep the pipeline going for the Brewers and tinker around the edges enough to get a winner.

Pittsburgh Pirates

GM Neil Huntington

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: Here is the crux of my argument. The Pirates are without a doubt the worst-run franchise in the National League. For years, they have been incompetent, both in the draft, in trades and in fielding winning ball clubs. Who can forget Randall Simon viciously attacking that poor Bratwurst in Milwaukee? Just horrible. Still, Huntington has done a great job of reversing this trend. He correctly indentified assets that were expendible, seems to have valued his minor leaguers correctly and his only big misstep so far has been the Bay trade. The big deal with the Yankees netted the Buccos a solid starter in Ross Ohlendorff and a young outfielder in Jose Tabata (who hasn't panned out). The Bay deal saw an iffy Andy LaRoche, a reliever (Craig Hanson) and a fourth or fifth outfielder (Brandon Moss) traded for one of the best left fielders in baseball.

Of course, if the Pirates had let Bay walk after the season like the Red Sox have, they'd be roundly criticized. The organization seems to be headed in the right direction. Count me as still skeptical, though, even with present evidence to the contrary.

St. Louis Cardinals

GM John Mozeliak

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: Mozeliak took over a team that didn't have much to work with outside of a couple big money players (Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter) and a ton of farm talent. He's tinkered around the edges well and leaned heavily on his manager and pitching coach's reputations to slot in marginal guys into productive roles. Mozeliak stuck by Colby Rasmus through early slumps and made a big-ticket acquisition of Matt Holliday.

There are conflicting reports about his style, but it seems like he appreciates what the stats can tell him about the game and uses it to some degree. Yet, his philosophy seems to be grating on the older school ideas of Tony LaRussa. Combine that with his cold-blooded trade of Dave Duncan's son, Chris, and he's done quite a bit to alienate two of the most important cogs to the Cardinals machine for the past decade. Not that I'm complaining.

There are both good and bad qualities here, but I don't think we can judge Mozeliak fairly until he's out from under LaRussa's considerable shadow (the man's a genius, after all).

Houston Astros

GM Ed Wade

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: So, the thing about Ed Wade is he can't trade. I said some nice things in the past about the job he did leading up to this past season, but after reviewing his track record in Philly, I have a suggestion. Ed Wade needs to hire some smart, baseball-savvy mind to be his trade manager. Like a salary-cap manager in football, this person would handle all the ramifications of trades (scouting players, balance, contracts, etc.) and give his best recommendation to Wade. Only then could the big man sign off.

If you think I exaggerate, look at his transactions. Here's a link to Baseball-Reference's transaction page starting in 1998. Wade took over in January of that year. In his entire Philly tenure, he made two good trades: Billy Wagner and Kenny Lofton. Every other trade he made was a bloodbath. Eric Milton? He gave up Nick Punto and Carlos Silva. Scott Rolen? He got Placido Polanco and that's it. He traded Curt Schilling for nothing. He traded away a young Adam Eaton for a declining Andy Ashby. He traded two young pitchers for two relievers and Ron Gant. Who thought this was a good idea? In fact, Wade's history is chock-full of trades for relievers. It's the position he enjoys tinkering with most on the team. Unfortunately, relievers are fungible, and trading for them wastes cheap assets.

Thus, why I had the idea of a trade manager. I'm sure someone like Paul DiPodesta or Kevin Towers wouldn't mind being the Astros full-time trade scout, right? Either one would be imminently more qualified than Wade to make these kinds of decisions. And yes, I realize that Wade has made some decent trades with the Astros. Sticking to the numbers, though? That streak may not last forever.

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

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Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

Cubs' Ted Lilly undergoes shoulder surgery

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 02:19:46 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

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Bad News Cubs.

Bruce Miles of the Arlington Heights Daily Herald is reporting that Cubs pitcher Ted Lilly underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery yesterday and could miss the start of the regular season. Lilly, who has been the Cubs' most reliable starter in recent years, says he hopes to start throwing in four months.

"The idea is maybe to start throwing in four months or so," he said. "A lot of that is going to be dictated on just how the rehab goes. That can change one way or another. My intention is to get back as soon as I can without setting myself back."

Since signing with the Cubs, Lilly has gone 44-26 with a 3.67 ERA. Entering a contract year in 2010, you can bet that Lilly wants to get back to the mound as soon as possible.

How will this impact the Cubs' moves this offseason?

The Cubs are not expected to bring back Rich Harden, meaning a spot will open up in the rotation. Currently, the rotation will look something like this: Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, and either Tom Gorzelanny or Jeff Samardzija.

With Lilly out, it seems even more imperative that the Cubs bring in a veteran arm to give the Cubs some stability at the back-end of their rotation. Free agent pitcher Randy Wolf could be an option for that role.

Other options include Javier Vazquez of the Braves through a trade, or free agents Justin Duchscherer, Brett Myers, or Joel Piniero.

New Cubs Boss Tom Ricketts: "We're Going To Win The World Series"

Al — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 19:35:01 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

New Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts (standing) and his siblings (left to right) Pete, Todd and Laura, the new Cubs board of directors, at today's news conference.

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Years from now, maybe we can say that "next year" arrived on October 30, 2009.

Tom Ricketts is the new chairman of the Cubs, and with his two brothers and sister, will comprise the board of directors of the team. But it's more than just a few names you've heard of -- the Ricketts really are a large extended family; their parents Joe and Marlene and quite a number of small children were in attendance at today's press conference. Even more so than the Wrigley "family" ownership (which was really just one person at a time, William Wrigley Jr., then P.K. Wrigley after his father's death, and then William Wrigley III for the last few years), this team really is owned by a family, not just one person.

And during today's news conference, they not only emphasized their own family, but the Cubs family -- a family you and I are part of as Cubs fans. For lack of a better term, they "bleed Cubbie blue" just as all of us do. Each one of them told the story of having come to Chicago from Omaha for college and, at various times, falling in love with the city, the Wrigleyville area (where several of them lived) and the Cubs. The story you've heard about Tom meeting his wife in the bleachers -- true, corroborated with smiles from all three siblings, who were there on that day. They used to sleep out for bleacher tickets in the early 80's, went to nearly all the weekend games, and said that being a Cubs fan is "a special feeling", and that "we know owning the Cubs is an honor, and we intend to respect it".

Tom's sister Laura perhaps put it best: "The Cubs are bigger than us as owners, bigger than Wrigley itself. It's a matter of family pride for us."

But that's not what you guys want to know about. You want to know what these new owners are going to do to make our team -- their team, and I truly believe that they are "one of us" -- a winner.

The most important thing Tom Ricketts said, I believe, about his philosophy of ownership is this:

We're going to hire people we trust, give them the opportunity to succeed, and hold them accountable.

Now isn't that refreshing? Isn't that what we've wanted to hear? No Steinbrennerian overlord tactics from Tom Ricketts (although when asked whether he would be an "active owner", the response was, "Todd will coach first base and I'll coach third". Wow -- a sense of humor!). He -- and Crane Kenney, who has the new title of team president -- will bring in the best people and let them do their jobs. If they don't, they'll be replaced. For the short term, that means leaving Jim Hendry and Lou Piniella in their place. Tom Ricketts said that he thinks Lou is one of the best managers in baseball and the right guy for 2010. From my standpoint, I hope Lou gets some rest this winter and returns in March re-energized, because as we all know, Lou seemed oddly disinterested at times in 2009.

I didn't get a chance to ask any questions -- but that's because nearly all of the questions you posted here yesterday eventually did get answered. (Well, everything except the blue jersey question. I figured that could wait till later.)

Ricketts first thanked fans for sending emails and letters of support for their effort to acquire the team and then gave this three-pronged message:

First, to strive to be the best in baseball every single year and to win the World Series. To accomplish that, invest in world-class facilities and the best personnel, and (as noted above) hold them to a high standard of accountability.

Second, they love Wrigley Field and will do everything they can to improve the Wrigley Field experience for future generations.

Third, they love Chicago and intend to be good neighbors, giving back to the city and neighborhood.

The key to winning the World Series, Ricketts said, is to "make the playoffs every year", and thus to build an organization that's "playoff worthy every single year". He called that "very doable".

For lack of a better term, I'd say Tom Ricketts "gets it".

For the short term, Ricketts said there may be "slight" ticket price increases in 2010. Personally, if he asked me, in this economy and coming off the tough year the Cubs had, I'd advise him to hold the line for one year. He also said payroll would be "slightly" increased, but didn't name a specific figure. Other things that he said he'd look at right away would be improvements in the Wrigley Field concourse, restrooms, and food options. He made it clear that the Triangle Building is a top priority, "the key to bringing Wrigley to modern standards", and I believe he meant this not only for the fan amenities it might contain, but for the new and upgraded player facilities (workout rooms, batting cages, etc.) it is likely to have.

Ricketts was asked why he was going to succeed where other owners have failed. His response, again, had three parts:

First, there are no multiple agendas. The only agenda is to win.

Second, they are going to reinvest in the team, the stadium, and the organization.

Third, there are no "quarterly results", they're in it for the long term: "Our shareholders are our fans."

They mentioned, as has been stated by Kenney before, that they look to the Red Sox as a model of how a team both renovated an old ballpark to be a thriving new stadium (and added that the Red Sox did this without ever moving out, and there has never been any discussion about moving out when renovations begin. There have also been "no discussions" about selling naming rights and he "hasn't considered it". When asked what the timetable was for getting to the World Series, he said (not unexpectedly) that he thought this team could make it next year, but made no promises, and said it would be up to Jim Hendry to make the team better; he wouldn't answer a specific question about eating salary.

Only one player -- Ryan Dempster, who is living here in Chicago all winter -- attended the news conference. For his part, Dempster seemed impressed with Ricketts and his commitment to Chicago, the team and the ballpark. Dempster himself -- one of the few Cubs in recent years to live year-round in Chicago -- also "gets it". If you're looking for a clubhouse leader for 2010, Dempster might just be the guy.

There's a lot more -- and I will post the entire transcript of the news conference here early next week -- but the bottom line is this: after 28 years of ownership that was on occasion good (getting the Cubs twice to within a few outs of the World Series), on occasion bad (seven 90+ loss seasons), and often frustrating, cheaping out for bottom-line corporate reasons when divisions were there for the taking and getting rid of people (Dallas Green, for one) who could have led us to the promised land, we at last have an owner who lives and dies with this team just like we do. We haven't had such an owner since 1932, when William Wrigley Jr., the first of the Wrigleys to own the team, died. Incidentally, there will be a half-hour special with the four siblings on CSN Chicago tonight at 11 pm CDT.

Go get 'em, Tom. Build us a winner, and you'll celebrate along with the rest of us. There will be much rejoicing. I, for one, can't wait.