SB Nation - Bob Howry

Three And Counting: Cubs Beat Giants Again 6-2

Al — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 12:00:47 -0000

Aramis Ramirez has had a heck of a half-season.

Whatever this late-season surge eventually means, the Cubs sure have been a lot of fun to watch over the last week.

6-1 since last Sunday, they beat the Giants for the third time in a row 6-2 on Saturday afternoon, pushing the Giants farther back in their attempt to take the NL Wild Card. This win both won this series for the Cubs, as well as the season series, from the Giants.

And later last night, the Cubs were eliminated from the NL Central race when the Cardinals beat the Rockies in Denver, so the Cubs' string of consecutive division titles ends at just two. They'll simply have to start another streak next season.

Aramis Ramirez has played in 79 games this year, just short of half a season, and many of those games were played with his shoulder far less than 100% after it was dislocated in Milwaukee on May 8. He hit his 15th HR of the season and now has 64 RBI -- that would put him on a pace for 130 RBI, which would currently rank third in the National League (and also third among all ML players, since the AL leader, Mark Teixeira, has 119). The Cubs are 42-34 with him in the starting lineup, 39-39 without. This all goes to show how much the Cub offense missed A-Ram; things might be very different now had they won even half of the games in the disastrous May road trip to St. Louis and San Diego where they scored six total runs in the six games, part of an eight-game losing streak.

Tom Gorzelanny is beginning to make a case for himself for the 2010 starting rotation. He made another solid start yesterday, throwing five innings and allowing only five singles and a run. In six starts as a Cub, Gorz has thrown 28.2 innings, allowed 28 hits and only nine walks and struck out 33 while posting a 4.08 ERA -- and that includes his horrific start in Denver on August 10, when he allowed six runs in less than two innings. Gorzelanny will have to increase his stamina and lower his pitch counts -- only one of his Cub starts has been longer than six innings, his first on August 4 vs. the Reds, but he clearly has talent.

As bad an offseason as Jim Hendry had last winter, give him credit for that trade -- he got Gorzelanny and John Grabow from the Pirates for, essentially, nothing.

The rest of the Cubs also had fun yesterday, even without Derrek Lee (who should be back today) -- they piled up 13 hits and seven walks off Barry Zito and four Giants relievers, including our old pal Bob Howry, who was making his first appearance against his former teammates. All told, three Cubs (Jake Fox, Reed Johnson and Micah Hoffpauir -- who didn't even start the game) had a pair of hits.

For those of you who don't live in the handful of cities that carried yesterday's game, consider yourselves lucky. Chris Rose, the play-by-play man, and Jose Mota, the analyst, were horrendous. When Giants catcher Buster Posey dropped a foul popup, Rose said, "That reminds me of the play in the 1980 World Series when Bob Boone dropped one and Pete Rose caught it." Well, sure, Chris, it's just like that play from game six of the 1980 WS. Except that the ball in that game was caught, and the one yesterday wasn't. Listening to those two was painful. I'd almost rather have had Josh Lewin and Mark Grace doing the game.

OK, the complaint department is now closed. The Cubs have been playing solid baseball that's enjoyable to watch. And that's always a good thing. Today's game preview post will be up at 1 pm CDT.

Diamondbacks seek veteran reliever?

Eli Greenspan — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 00:19:39 -0000

More photos » by Tony Avelar - AP

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GM Josh Byrnes told the Arizona Republic that he would like to add a veteran reliever this offseason. Byrnes needs to figure out what to do about Brandon Webb and Doug Davis, because otherwise they will have serious holes in their rotation.

Despite some established veterans in the bullpen this season, some were traded to clear payroll and others have injuries and off-field issues. Adding a proven veteran could bring some stability to the bullpen, who own a 4.65 ERA in 150 appearances this season.

So who could they bring in? Dannys Baez is up for a free agency, along with Bob Howry, LaTroy Hawkins, or even Chad Cordero.

Giant Bats Batter the Dodgers

Brendan Scolari — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 07:23:42 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

See ya ball.

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The Giants doubled up the Dodgers tonight 8-4, not on the strength of their traditionally formidable pitching staff, but on the backs of their hitters. Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez didn't even last log enough to qualify for a win, going only 4.1 innings while allowing 5 hits, 4 runs, and 2 walks with 3 strikeouts. However, the Dodger pitching staff was not up to the task either. They allowed 15 hits, including 6 that went for extra bases.

Vicente Padilla allowed a homerun to Eugenio Velez leading off the game, which portended things to come. In the bottom of the first the first four Dodgers reached base but only one run scored thanks to a Russell Martin double play and a nice (if lucky) play by Jonathan Sanchez to snag a screaming Matt Kemp liner. The one Dodger run scored on a Manny Ramirez double.

Padilla and Sanchez escaped trouble until the third inning, when Pablo Sandoval rocketed a low line drive out to right center that got out in a hurry to score three runs and put the Giants up 4-1. Sanchez returned the favor in the fourth, well, sort of. He threw a 3-2 fastball six inches below Manny's knee's but that wasn't good enough to retire one of the greatest hitters ever, Manny lofted it into the left field seats anyway. That brought the score to 4-3, but that didn't last long. The very next inning Rafael Furcal hit a solo homerun to tie the score at 4 and chase Sanchez from the game.

Ramon Troncoso came in for the top of the 6th inning and was knocked around, allowing three doubles in just two thirds of an inning to put the Giants back up by two. The Dodger offense couldn't muster a comeback from there and fell to the Giants 8-4.

The last two Giants runs came off of Chad Billingsley, who struggled mightily in his relief appearance. Billingsley was supposed to go the last two innings of the game but coudln't close out the ninth and had to be lifted for Guillermo Mota to get the last out with the bases loaded. Chad allowed a homerun to Aaron Rowand, three singles, and two walks in his 1.2 innings pitched. He also didn't strike anyone out, which certainly isn't an encouraging sign for Dodger fans.

Here's the win probability chart for the game. The odds of winning were in the Dodgers favor as late as the sixth inning:

via www.fangraphs.com

Tomorrow Jon Garland (10-11) takes on Brad Penny (10-8) at 1:10 PM in the second game of the three game set. The Dodgers magic number to clinch a playoff spot remains at 8 for the time being.

WP - Bob Howry (2-6): 0.2 IP, 0 hits, 0 runs, 0 strikeouts

LP - Ramon Troncoso (4-4): 0.2 IP, 3 hits, 2 runs, 0 walks, 1 strikeout

The Cubs Will Break A Major League Record Today: Cubs vs. Mets Preview, Saturday 8/29, 3:10 CT

Al — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 16:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Just what did Carlos whisper in Geo's ear when this photo was taken?

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That got your attention. The Cubs will break a record when they get their first hit off the Mets' Bobby Parnell this afternoon.

You're still wondering what this is all about. Let me explain.

On September 20, 1958, Hall of Famer Hoyt Wilhelm threw a no-hitter against the Yankees, while pitching for the Orioles. The Yankees then went 6,980 games without being no-hit, until six Astros pitchers no-hit them on June 11, 2003, about 44 1/2 years' worth of games.

The last time the Cubs were no-hit was Sandy Koufax's perfect game on September 9, 1965, a little less than 44 years ago. Through yesterday, the Cubs had completed 6,980 games without being no-hit. Thus, when the Cubs get their first hit this afternoon, they'll break that record. Thanks to SABR member Madison McEntire for the research and confirming to me the exact date of this record-breaking event.

The other big issue to discuss this morning is: where are Rich Harden and Aaron Heilman going to finish the year? Both have been claimed on waivers, Harden by the Twins, and Heilman by the Giants. (Ironic -- Heilman was brought in, at least in part, to replace Bob Howry, who was signed by the Giants. Now, they could become teammates, and further, the Cubs could wind up facing Heilman in San Francisco in September.) My feeling is: let Heilman go -- he's not likely to be back next year and the Cubs could easily replace him with Jeff Stevens or Justin Berg, for now. As for Harden, if the Cubs keep him and he then leaves as a free agent (presuming arbitration is offered, which it likely would be), he would net the Cubs two draft picks. Jim Hendry thus has to find out whether he can get two prospects from the Twins who would be worth more to the organization than the draft picks. If so, let him go -- because you could then re-sign Harden anyway as a free agent.

We'll know the results by Monday, the last day a player can be traded to a new team and still qualify for postseason play.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Ryan Dempster Cubs	vs.	Bobby Parnell Mets

7-7	W-L	3-6
4.07	ERA	5.08
122	SO	50
54	BB	30
18	HR	5
vs. Hou	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ryan Dempster	7-7	23	23	0	0	0	0	143.2	141	75	65	18	54	122	4.07	1.36

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Bobby Parnell	3-6	58	4	0	0	1	4	62.0	71	37	35	5	30	50	5.08	1.63

Bobby Parnell was supposed to be a mainstay of the Mets' bullpen this year. He was doing a pretty good job of it till mid-June, when he started to get pounded; in 25 relief appearances between June 10 and August 5, he put up a 5.56 relief ERA. Then, due to injuries, he wound up in the Mets' rotation; he is 1-3 in four starts with an even worse 8.82 ERA. He made two relief appearances vs. the Cubs last September; no current Cub has more than two AB against him.

Ryan Dempster's career numbers vs. the Mets aren't too good -- 8-4, but with a 5.54 ERA, in 23 lifetime appearances (12 starts). However, all of those starts were in his previous incarnation as a starter with the Marlins and Reds -- he didn't start vs. the Mets last year. Most of the Mets who hit him well (Carlos Beltran, David Wright) are on the DL.

The Cubs and Mets are on Fox-TV today. Surprisingly, this game is being considered Fox's "A" game. The list of markets is too long to post here; click here to see if the game is on in your city. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Mets site Amazin' Avenue.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 4:15 pm, 5:15 pm and 6 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Minor League Overview: The Pitchers

APV — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 15:42:05 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

New Cleveland Indians pitcher Carlos Carrasco is part of newly strengthened system-wide pitching depth

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UPDATE: I've added in Price, Hagadone and the 2007 seasons for Chris Perez and Justin Masterson, the last full season of minor league action they both saw.

I haven't done a full system recap since the end of April, so we are definitely overdue for one, even before the trading deadline movements. In this installment, I'll highlight some of the pitching performances so far this season.

Progress Score Leaders

Hector Rondon: 6.78
Jesse Todd: 6.23
Jeanmar Gomez: 5.11
Alexander Perez: 3.66
Justin Masterson07: 3.13
Nick Hagaone: 2.84
Zach Putnam: 2.23
Jason Knapp: 1.85
Josh Judy: 1.81
Steve Smith: 1.34
Carlos Carrasco: 1.04
TJ House: 0.41

A few notes on these numbers. First, since PS takes into account games started, at this point in the season starters numbers are somewhat disadvantaged relative to relievers. For example, Hector Rondon's 6.78 is a fine score, but if you project his 17 starts to 26 starts the number goes up to an even better 8.58. Carrasco had a mid-6 score last season. Knapp and Scott Barnes also had very high (6+) scores last season, albeit in limited playing time. Kelvin De La Cruz only had 2 starts this season before being shut down, but in those two starts he put up a 12.19 progress score...obviously likely would have come down when his 42% K-rate and nearly 10:1 K:BB rate moved to more realistic numbers.

NET Leaders

Hector Rondon: 48
Jason Knapp: 45
Scott Barnes: 39
Jesse Todd: 34
Zach Putnam: 33
Steve Smith: 31
Ryan Edell: 31
Eric Berger: 30
Santo Frias: 28
Justin Masterson: 27
Alexander Perez/CC Lee: 25

It should be clear that Hector Rondon is having a good season and now, just a step away at AAA Columbus, is arguably our top pitching prospect. These scores seem to give a better view of what the front office sees in Knapp and Barnes. I also think Putnam will be an interesting guy to follow, maybe turning into a cheap version of Bob Howry by late 2010 or 2011.

K/PA (%) Leaders

Chris Perez07: 33.5
Jason Knapp: 30.9
Nick Hagadone: 30.5
Jesse Todd: 29.6
Steve Smith: 29.6
Santo Frias: 29.4
Josh Judy: 28.3
C.C. Lee: 25.5
Hector Rondon: 25.4
Ryan Edell: 25.0
Connor Graham: 24.9
Matt Langwell: 23.7

Not surprisingly this is a reliever-dominated list (although Knapp's spot on the top is striking...and who knew Edell was showing such nice K-rates this year). Other starters above 20% include Bryan Price (23.2), Bryce Stowell (22.7), Eric Berger (22.4), Carlos Carrasco (22.4), Alexander Perez (21.9), and Scott Barnes (21.7). I don't really think Steve Smith is much of a prospect (he's old), but he probably should be pitching someplace higher than Lake County. I still have hope in Santo Frias who was derailed by injury last season and converted to the bullpen.

BB/PA (%)

Josh Tomlin: 4.1
Russell Young: 4.2
Steve Smith: 4.3
Frank Herrmann: 4.7
Hector Rondon: 5.2
Ryan Edell: 5.6
Paolo Espino: 5.6
Justin Masterson07: 6.2
Kyle Landis: 6.4
Jesse Todd: 6.5
Zach Putnam: 6.5

Rondon, Edell, Todd, Putnam...And in case you were wondering who has the best K:BB ratio, it is Steve Smith (6.88), Hector Rondon (4.88), Josh Tomlin (4.88), Jesse Todd (4.55) and Ryan Edell (4.46).

GB%

Nick Hagaone: 70%
Travis Turek: 64%
Russell Young: 60%
Justin Masterson07: 59%
Chris Jones: 58%
Carlton Smith: 57%
Trey Haley: 56%
TJ McFarland: 55%
Zach Putnam/Josh Judy/Connor Graham/Neil Wagner/Jon Holt: 54%

Jeanmar Gomez, TJ House and Zach Jackson are right off this list at 51%. Carlton Smith is doing better in Akron than his brother Corey ever did.

The Movers:

Moving up...

Jeanmar Gomez has had a great season, and not just because of his no-hitter. He's improved his K-rate, BB-rate, GB-rate, and HR-rate, all while advancing from A+ to AA. There are still lots of questions about how he'll perform against higher competition and the quality of his "stuff", but he has without a doubt had a very good season.

Hector Rondon has also had a great season, improving his K, BB, and HR numbers while advancing within spitting distance of Cleveland. While Gomez has improved the view of his ceiling, Rondon has more maintained his position but by moving closer to Cleveland and not stumbling has made the attainment of that ceiling more likely.

Alexander Perez is making the most of his first full season and seems to be at the head of the young, low-A pitchers.

Chuck Lofgren's year has been an improvement, if only because he is actually pitching and throwing strikes. He is far from being the impact guy he once looked like, but he now looks like he might be able to fill a depth starter role in the future. Similarly, Ryan Edell is not a great prospect, but he's had a good year and looks to be an emergency rotation fill-in sometime in 2010 or 2011.

Zach Putnam is having a good, if somewhat uneven (in part reflecting his movement from the rotation to the pen) full-season debut. (ed. note: but Cleveland never drafts the right guys or promotes them aggressively!)

Moving down...

Kelvin De La Cruz and Joey Mahalic were both off to great starts before getting injured. Those injuries trump their great starts.

Trey Haley, Danny Salazar and Bryce Stowell haven't had good seasons. Stowell has had control issues, Salazar hasn't been missing enough bats (which at low-A isn't good), and Haley has had trouble with just about everything (0.6 K:BB !).

Our pitchers who have taken the biggest blows this year are, of course, the guys who have pitched in Cleveland. SLewis's injury problems make him an uncertainty. Huff hasn't been what he was last year. Raffy and Jensen Lewis can lose, it turns out. Carmona...

Final Thought

We have a lot of interesting young pitchers, many of whom are floating around Mahoning Valley and Goodyear, whose rosters I did not cover here. But one of the things I noticed is that, especially the way this season has shredded some of our upper minors pitching depth, the recent acquisition of guys like Barnes, Graham, Knapp and Carrasco really do a lot to fill out our pitching depth. This isn't to say we don't have interesting guys on pretty much all our full roster teams, but with the new pitchers we have multiple potential impact pitchers on each team, which is a much more reassuring position going forward.

Washington Nationals Break Six-Game Losing Streak, Beat San Francisco Giants 10-5 In DC.

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 03:11:26 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

6 months ago: Washington Nationals' Cristian Guzman (15) high-fives Alberto Gonzalez (12) and Adam Dunn (44) after he scored on a Ryan Zimmerman double as San Francisco Giants catcher Bengie Molina stands in front of the plate during the eighth inning of a baseball game Tuesday, June 2, 2009 in Washington. The Nationals won 10-6. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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HEADLINES:

RON VILL0.00NE IS MY HER0.00!!!

Brought on in the seventh inning with a man on third and one out in a 5-4 ballgame that saw the Washington Nationals trailing the visiting San Francisco Giants, and in danger of losing their seventh straight game, DC lefty Ron Vill0.00ne proceeded to strike out the next two batters, Randy Winn and Bengie Molina, to leave Aaron Rowand, who'd doubled off Julian Tavarez to lead off the frame and moved to third on a groundout...stranded...by Mr. Perfect, Ron Vill0.00ne who gets the win (W, 3-0, 0.00 in 14.2 IP), after one more inning on the mound when his work allows the Nationals to mount a comeback with a six-run eighth.

• Don't Walk Dunn, Dukes Is Back...

Josh Bard started the eighth inning with a single to center off San Francisco reliever Bob Howry. Anderson Hernandez followed with his third hit of the night, and the visiting Giants' slim one-run lead was officially in jeopardy. Cristian Guzman singles, 5-5 ballgame. Alberto "The General" Gonzalez hits the fourth straight single, scoring Bard's-pinch-runner Wil Nieves from second and moving Anderson Hernandez to third, 6-5 DC takes the lead. Howry's replaced by Merkin Valdez, who gets Nick Johnson to K looking. Fooled by a slider. Ryan Zimmerman, who was just 1 for his last 19, doubles to the right center gap to score two to put Washington ahead 8-5. Merkin Valdez gives Adam Dunn the intentionals, which in recent weeks might have meant Austin Kearns or Josh Willingham were coming up, but Elijah "Super" Dukes is back, and he tears into a 1-0 slider for an RBI single to center. Zimmerman scores, 9-5 DC. Pinch runner Wil Nieves hits a sac fly to right, Dunn tags and scores. 10-5 DC.

• Let's just ignore the fact that "Wild" Joel Hanrahan gave up a run in the ninth, shall we?

• Rise of The Bard. The Fall of Flores.

In addition to hitting his first HR of the season in the second, which was only the second home run that San Francisco starter Tim Lincecum has surrendered all season, DC catcher Josh Bard scored the winning run by proxy in the eighth, and finished the night 3 for 4 with his sixth RBI. Bard and Wil Nieves are going to be counted on the rest of the way unless someone rises up from the system like "Disgruntled" Luke Montz, because, as the Washington Nationals announced and MLB.com's Bill Ladson reported this afternoon in an article entitled, "Shoulder could end Flores' season", Jesus Flores has suffered a "stress fracture inside his right shoulder", which will put him out for "a minimum of three months" according to "Acting" DC GM Mike Rizzo, who's quoted in Mr. Ladson's article stating that:

"'It's a bad day for the organization. It's not a devastating injury. It's going to take time to heal. Once it heals, we should have him at 100 percent.'"

• 49 and 50.

Error #49 - Josh Bard, (E - 1). - Men on second and third after Fred Lewis and Juan Uribe single in succession and one out later are sac'd over by Giants' pitcher Tim Lincecum. DC starter Craig Stammen uncorks a 3-1 curve to Aaron Rowand that hits the dirt and gets by Bard, but that's a WP, not the error, Fred Lewis comes home, and Bard tosses wildly over the covering pitcher's head and toward the first base dugout, E, Uribe comes around to score from second on the wild pitch-walk-error combo, Rowand takes second.

Error #50 - Cristian Guzman, (E - 7). - Bottom of the sixth, Pablo Sandoval leads off for the Giants with a broken bat grounder that saw the sawed off barrel shoot out toward right while the ball went up the middle to the short side of second, Cristian Guzman gets to it, reaches down, and comes up empty. Sandoval scores one out later on Juan Uribe's RBI double.

Miss The Game, The DC Faithful Were Watching.

Nationals win, 10-6 final.

For The Completists, Complete Game Report (currently unedited) After The Jump...

Nationals now 14-36.

San Francisco Giants At Washington Nationals. Game 50 or 51 of 162.

Did new Nationals' pitching coach Steve McCatty tell him to throw that? A 1-1 change from DC righty Craig Stammen acts more like a BP fastball, and Aaron Rowand treats it as such, homering to left to lead off the game. 1-0 Giants. Stammen gets squeezed a bit on a 2-2 pitch that’s arguably low, but Edgar Renteria flies out to deep center on a full-count fastball. Craig Stammen kicks the dirt at his feet for a moment before firing low again with a 2-2 fastball to Randy Winn, who ends up doubling to left center just out of Willie Harris’ reach. A groundout to third from Bengie Molina and a high pop to center from Pablo Sandoval and Stammen’s out with minimal damage...Tim Lincecum gets Cristian Guzman looking at a fastball Guzman thinks is low. Nick "Two-Spot" Johnson hits a trademark single to left center. NJ™. Ryan Zimmerman walks with one down and the Donkey’s up. Adam Dunn almost gets one, but it falls into right. Elijah Dukes swings over a 1-2 bender inside. 1-0 Giants after one.

Adam Dunn charges in behind Cristian Guzman to catch the first out off Fred Lewis’ bat. Ryan Zimmerman robs Juan Uribe, picking a one-hopper and firing to first, in time. Emmanuel Burriss flies out to Dunn in left, Stammen retires the Giants in order....Lincecum throws a 93 mph full-count fastball to Willie Harris that’s popped out to left. Josh Bard hits only the second HR Lincecum’s allowed in '09, taking a fastball inside to straight left, 1-1 ballgame. Craig Stammen pops up on a bunt out a foot in front of home when Bengie Molina pops up to catch it. Anderson Hernandez singles and then steals second with Cristian Guzman at bat. Guzman grounds out to second.

Tim Lincecum slices an arching liner out to left. Aaron Rowand only gets as far as short with a groundout Guzman handles. Edgar Renteria grounds to Guzman again and again Guzman throws to first to end the frame...Nick Johnson takes a swing at an 0-2 change in the dirt, and has to run it out after K’ing. Ryan Zimmerman grounds a 2-0 pitch to Burress at second. Adam Dunn goes the other way with a fastball outside and doubles to the left center wall. Elijah Dukes grounds to Uribe, who has it go under his glove, Dunn scores. 2-1 DC. Willie Harris K's to end the third.

Randy Winn grounds out to Guzman. Bengie Molina K’s swinging for a change in the dirt. Pablo Sandoval flies out to Dunn in left, and Craig Stammen’s mowing down Giants...Two-strike curve/change outside from Lincecum gets Bard looking. Anderson "Elvis" Hernandez goes the other way with a line drive single to left. Craig Stammen K’s trying to bunt with two strikes. Cristian Guzman patiently takes a free pass. Nick Johnson goes inside out to left, Fred Lewis has it...

...And Fred Lewis singles to center on a curve from Stammen. Juan Uribe singles on a hop in front of Dunn in left. Emmanuel Burriss flies out to Willie Harris in center. Craig Stammen tosses softly to first to get Lincecum on the sac. Second and third, Josh Bard misses a curve from Stammen with Aaron Rowand up, and it bounces away, Bard recovers and tosses it, over Stammens head, Lewis scores, Uribe scores as they chase down the ball, 3-2 Giants, Rowand, who walked on the pitch takes second on the errant toss. Edgar Renteria singles, Rowand to third, and Randy Winn goes back up the middle with an RBI single that scores Rowand, 4-2 Giants. Stammen gets a flyout to center to end the inning...Ryan Zimmerman grounds out to start the fifth. Adam Dunn pops out to the infield. Elijah Dukes chases a 2-2 curve out of the zone...

A broken bat sails toward second on Pablo Sandoval’s grounder to short, Guzman blows it, error No. 50 on the Nationals. Fred Lewis flies unproductively to Willie Harris in center. Pablo Sandoval scores from first on a line drive to left from Uribe that dies in the corner as Dunn awaits the bounce, 5-2 Giants. Cristian Guzman steps back to catch Emmanuel Burris' pop out. Cristian Guzman throws out the pitcher...Willie Harris lines a double to right that rolls into the corner. Bard dumps a single into left, Harris takes third. First and third for Anderson Hernandez. Hernandez grounds into what should be a DP, but Renteria throws it away after stepping on first, Harris scores, 5-3 Giants. Stammen out for PH Ronnie Belliard, Hernandez steals third, and scores when Belliard flies to right, sac fly, 5-4 San Fran. Cristian Guzman grounds out to end the sixth.

Aaron Rowand doubles off Julian Tavarez to start the seventh. Edgar Renteria moves Rowand over with a groundout to second. Tavarez out so Ron Villone can face Randy Winn, who’ll bat from the right. Ron Villone throws a low two-strike fastball outside by Randy Winn. Rowand still at third. Ron Vill0.00ne gets Bengie Molina to chase strike three out of the zone!! Vill0.00ne remains perfect...Nick Johnson pops out foul of third and it curves back in to Uribe. Ryan Zimmerman lines to left for a single in front of Adam Dunn. Jeremy Affeldt on to face Dunn. Lefty vs Lefty. Adam Dunn’s way out in front of a two-strike curve. Elijah Dukes up, Zimmerman takes second on a pitch in the dirt that gets by Molina. Another wild pitch, and Zimmerman takes third. Bob Howry on for Affeldt against Austin Kearns, who hits for Willie Harris. Kearns sends a dribbler to third, Uribe guns Kearns at first.

Ron VILL0.00ne gets a fly ball to left from Pablo Sandoval. Zimmerman throws out Fred Lewis after backhanding a hot shot and firing to first!!! Ground ball to second, and Hernandez throws out Uribe!! VILL0.00NE LIVES!!...Josh Bard singles to center off Howry to start the Nationals’ eighth.Wil Nieves runs for Bard. Anderson Hernandez singles Nieves over to second. Pinch hitter Alberto Gonzalez tries to bunt twice, but fouls them off, so he swings away and singles to center, Nieves scores, tied at 5-5!!! Cristian Guzman vs Merkin Valdez, Guzman gets a single under second, and into right, Hernandez scores the go-ahead run, 6-5 DC. Nick Johnson gets called out on a two-strike curve. Ryan Zimmerman lines to right center and into the gap, two runs score, 8-5 DC!!! Dunn gets the intentionals, and Elijah Dukes makes them pay, a new pitcher makes no difference, Dukes doubles off Giants’ righty Justin Miller, 9-5 DC. Austin Kearns gets the intentionals to bring Wil Nieves to the plate. Nieves hits one to deep right, Winn catches, Dunn tags and scores, 10-5 DC. Anderson Hernandez grounds out to end the eighth. Wait for it...

"Wild" Joel Hanrahan vs Emmanuel Burriss. Burriss reaches on a single back to the mound and off Hanrahan’s outstretched glove. Nate Schierholz pops out foul of third. Aaron Rowand singles to right, Burriss scores. 10-6. Edgar Renteria pops out to Zimmerman for out No. 2. Randy Winn doubles to right, Rowand to third. Bengie Molina pops out to second, Hanrahan ends it!! Nationals win, 10-6 final.

Nationals now 14-36.

It Was Eleven Years Ago Today: Cubs vs. Astros, Wednesday 5/6, 7:05 CT

Al — Wed, 06 May 2009 22:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

I like this photo of Bengie Molina from yesterday's game. Once again, a prime "Make Up Your Own Caption" candidate.

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Normally, the 11th anniversary of anything isn't reason to give the occasion a mention. However, eleven years ago today, Kerry Wood struck out 20 Astros at Wrigley Field. I mention this not because of any sentimental attachment to Wood, but because that day was also a Wednesday, and the Cubs are playing the Astros again today (although in Houston, not in Chicago).

In addition to the 20 K's still being the NL record, that game also set the record for most combined K's in a game (30 -- Houston's Shane Reynolds threw one of the better games you'll ever see in a defeat).

If there's any current Cub who might one day strike out 20 in a game, it's tonight's starter, Rich Harden. Harden has 37 strikeouts in 24.2 innings so far this year -- that ranks 9th in the NL, despite the fact that he has thrown eight fewer innings than anyone who has more K's than he does. Harden doesn't qualify to be on the strikeouts per nine innings list (having thrown fewer innings than the Cubs have games played), but if he did, he would be leading not just the NL, but both leagues, with 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The Astros aren't a particularly strikeout-prone team -- they rank 12th in the NL in batter K's -- but maybe Harden has saved one of his better games for tonight.

There is, of course, actual news today, most of it via Twittermeyer: the recall of Chad Fox and optioning of Jeff Samardzija, being discussed in this front-page FanShot (scroll down); some more information on Milton Bradley's suspension hearing (not lifted yet, but not enforced yet, either); and tonight's lineup: Soriano, Theriot, Bradley, Ramirez, Soto, Johnson, Hoffpauir (1B), Miles, Harden

I have added the "Walk Watch" box back to the right sidebar. The club record for batter walks in a season is 650, set in 1975. That's a rather strange season to have set such a record: it wasn't a particularly good team (they lost 87 games), and their leader in free passes was Andre Thornton, whose 88 bases on balls ranked ninth in the NL. But, the '75 Cubs did have three players (Thornton, Bill Madlock and Jose Cardenal) with OBA's over .400 and those players ranked 4-5-6 in the NL in that category. That team had horrid pitching (they allowed the most runs in the NL by almost 100), otherwise they might have been a playoff contender, since they finished fourth in the NL in runs scored. Anyway, this year's Cubs have already walked 103 times (3.96 walks per game) and are on pace for 642 walks.

Nick Friedell of ESPN.com has posted an extensive interview with new Cub Bobby Scales in which we learn that, among other things, he used to sell jewelry in the offseason, he loves to golf, and you won't find him on Facebook. He does have his own MLBlog, though it hasn't been updated recently.

Retired ballplayer note: remember that lawsuit filed against Roberto Alomar by his ex-girlfriend alleging he had AIDS? The suit was withdrawn yesterday "with prejudice", which means it cannot be revisited. There was considerable discussion on this site on this lawsuit when it was filed last February, so it seems only fair to post the final resolution.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Rich Harden Cubs	vs.	Mike Hampton Astros

2-1	W-L	1-2
5.11	ERA	4.88
37	SO	22
14	BB	11
5	HR	3
vs. Hou	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Rich Harden	2-1	6	5	0	0	0	0	24.2	21	15	14	5	14	37	5.11	1.42

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Mike Hampton	1-2	5	5	0	0	0	0	27.2	29	16	15	3	11	22	4.88	1.45

Mike Hampton? Is he still in the League? (Bonus points for the source of that paraphrase.) Hampton is 9-4, 2.98 in 23 lifetime appearances (19 starts) against the Cubs. Sounds pretty good, right? All of those appearances were before Hampton got hurt and missed most of three years. He hasn't faced the Cubs since October 1, 2004, the day the Cubs were mathematically eliminated from that year's wild card race. Only Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez (both of whom went 0-for-4 that day) are still Cubs from players who were in that game. And, I love fun stuff like this: Hampton was a September callup at age 20 for the 1993 Seattle Mariners. Among his teammates was Tim Leary, who retired 15 years ago and turned 50 last December. Surprisingly enough, there are two other still-active players from that '93 Mariners team -- Ken Griffey, Jr. and Omar Vizquel.

Rich Harden has faced the Astros only once in his career -- on August 5, 2008 at Wrigley Field. He struck out 8, but also gave up an unsightly 8 hits in 5.2 innings, and two homers. One of those HR was to Ty Wigginton, who's no longer with Houston; the other was to Geoff Blum, who's still there. The Cubs won that game 11-7; they had to come from behind on an Alfonso Soriano HR after Bob Howry had blown the lead.

Cable only again today: CSN Chicago and FSN Houston. If you are outside Chicago and have both feeds on EI, make sure you watch the Cubs feed. The Houston announcers are pretty bad. For more games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Overflow comment threads will post today at 8 pm, 9 pm and 9:45 pm CDT.

To discuss with Astros fans, visit our SBN Astros site The Crawfish Boxes.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Nifty Websites that make Baseball Nitpicking Fun

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 06 May 2009 17:00:15 -0000

Hey gang, got some bad news for you all. I'm taking finals right now, and also working on a project that's due tomorrow, along with studying for the test that takes place in the same class at the same time as the due date of the project.

Basically, I'm copping out and not writing an article this week. I'll try and have something nifty next week.

But in lieu of me boring you with a new metric or explaining further why I think IsoD is the best thing ever, I'm gonna direct you to a couple of cool websites that I've probably cited for you already.

The first is Brooks Baseball, home of another neat Pitch F/X machine. It goes into more depth than Josh Kalk's did, and it's based on new/current data as well. RowBot JamesK made me aware of this in his fanpost documenting Matt Daley's debut.

Right now it's limitations are mostly that you can't view a body of work, like a month, or a season, but you can look at any individual pitching performance in any game, and break it down further from there.

For example, just to get everyone all riled up, Brian Wilson on Friday in SF vs the Rockies:

via www.brooksbaseball.net

BASK IN THE INCONSISTENCY OF PAUL EMMEL!!!!

Join me after the jump and we'll look at some other cool sites.

The next awesome site for everyone to be amazed by is Hit Tracker, the most comprehensive coverage of every home run hit in Major League Baseball. It's awesome. They rate every homer hit on whether it's a No Doubter, hit with Plenty of gusto, hit Just Enough to get out, and then the Lucky ones that probably shouldn't have left the park. They also tell you all the Physics I information, like how far it traveled and how hard it was hit off of the bat, etc etc, so you don't have to go hunt down a college freshman and make him do algebra for you.

For example, here's Chris Iannetta's dinger off of Bob Howry:

via www.hittrackeronline.com

BEASTLY.

And finally, a few quick and relatively silly ones.

ImageShack is a free image hosting site, and it's great for using with message boards. Reason I bring this up is because I'm nitpicking and a stickler for not leeching images off of other websites. Copy the URL of the picture you want, hop over to ImageShack, re-host it, copy THAT URL, then come back here and post away. This is where I have my ADAM DUNN IS NOT IMPRESSED and STOP! HAMMEL TIME pictures hosted, so I never need to worry about using up someone else's bandwidth.

Copper is a great webcomic I read from time to time, because it has really neat art and some moderately insightful themes, while still being light and fun to read.

Ok I'm starting to get off track now.

Last thing, I'm not putting a nice crazy SABRMETRIC article up today because I'm busy, but I'll actually be by the computer pretty regularly. If you have any questions on any of my columns, or any statistical evaluation questions at all, just bring them up here, and I'll try and get to them. I'm sure Poseidon's Fist will probably pop in as well, and he's a great resource for these as well.

Anyhow, Onward and Upward, RowBots, and let's beat the Giants at home!

Giants 2, Diamondbacks 0: Deja Vu, ALLLLL FRACKING OVER AGAIN

DbacksSkins — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 02:29:19 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

Randy Johnson may very well have been unhittable today, but to be fair, the young Dbacks hitters were also distracted by his new breast implants.

Browse more photos »

Record: 4-8. Pace: 54-108. Change on last season: -5.

I thought about recycling Jim's recap from Friday's game, but figured somebody might notice. ~~Dan Haren~~ Max Scherzer took the mound for Arizona today, giving up only 1 1 run; however, the Dbacks' offense continued to be AWOL, as the team's bats were shut down by ~~Ubaldo Jimenez~~ ~~Francisco Morales~~ ~~Eric Stults~~ ~~Randy Wolf~~ ~~Todd Wellemeyer~~ ~~Jonathan Sanchez~~ ~~Tim Lincecum~~ Randy Johnson. Max struck out 6 Giants, but 2 of them were Johnson.

RJ was absolutely dominating on the bump for the Giants, every pitch seemingly thundering like an Arc Light strike. The Diamondbacks willingly complied with Randy's game plan, finally accomplishing what they could not last year: getting RJ his 296th career win, and his first W in '09. The team was, however, able to break up the chances of the Unit's 2nd perfect game and 3rd no-hitter, Augie Ojeda getting the littlest double to lead off the 7th. Tony Clark and Ryan Roberts also drew walks. I attribute this superb offensive success to the whole of the Snakepit trying to jinx RJ by talking, first, about his perfect game, and second, about his no-hitter. Perhaps we should have mentioned his shutout as well.

Scherzer pitched 5 frames and gave up only 3 hits, however, Mad Max suffered some control issues: 4 walks, including a BB to Prince of Darkness Randy Winn, who eventually came around to score San Francisco's first run on an RBI sac fly by .161-hitting Travis Ishikawa. Scherzer loaded the bases in the 4th inning, so to only give up a single run has to be counted as a victory. Max went for a somewhat surprising 104 pitches today before being lifted for Mark Reynolds in the 6th. Continuing the theme of offensive (not only offensive, but REVOLTING too! Har har har) fail, Reynolds dutifully grounded into a double play to erase Ryan Roberts, who had reached on a walk. If there IS a silver lining to be found here, it might be that the Dbacks as a team only left one runner on base. After Tony Clark drew a walk in the 5th and was erased by Chris Young's groundout, CY, eager to get back to the Valley, was picked off by Johnson and caught stealing 2nd.

Reynolds stayed in the game to play 3rd, no doubt because of his exciting defensive skillz, but Roberts had made his first start of the year at 3rd. "Interesting" choice, given that Roberts is now batting .200 on the season. Along the same lines, Tony Clark started at 1st and Eric Byrnes started in LF. Clark makes SOME sense, I guess, in that he had been 4-8 in his career against RJ with a homer, while Conor Jackson's been struggling and Chad Tracy looks like a little girl against LHPs. But, naturally, Clark sucked -- only slightly less than everyone else, this time. Our other batter with some past success against RJ was the hot-hitting Lopez, who had been 4-9 also with a HR. Lopez went ohfer, as did almost all of our lineup. Augie started at short since ~~J.D.~~ Stephen Drew's still out, and Augie made a rare fielding mistake in the 8th, inexplicably going for the double play with no outs. What made it inexplicable was the fact that Bengie Molina, slower than a snail on opiates, lumbered from 3rd to home to score the game's final run.

I have to admit that I was skeptical when Miggy praised him over the winter, but Juan Gutierrez had another good relief outing, pitching the 6th and 7th innings while giving up only 1 hit and 1 walk. Greg Schulte pointed out, at the time, that as a converted starter, Gutierrez has more pitches than Jose Valverde, and might end up even being better than Valverde. In the 8th, Jon Rauch continued in his solo effort to make the Carlos Quentin trade look good in comparison, facing two batters and giving up two hits. Melvin had a short leash on his giant reliever today, bringing on Schoeneweis just in time to give up the Giants' second run. After pulling Shoe as well, making him and Rauch sit in the corner of the dugout to think about what they'd done, Tony Pena came in to clean up the mess and got three quick outs. I'm really not sure why Melvin keeps using Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum in ANY game in which the margin is fewer than 10 runs. Rauch is in the midst of a VERY impressive streak of suck, having now given up run(s) in 5 of the 7 games he's appeared in. Somebody call Cooperstown.

Dbacks did even worse after Randy left the game; Bob Howry and Brian Wilson went for a perfect 8th and 9th inning, respectively. All in all, NOT a very good day for the Diamondbacks. There are rumors in the clubhouse that the Dbacks' starting rotation is getting together to make a movie. Should be a good flick:

Elsewhere, those vastly underrated Rockies were destroyed by the Dodgers, 14-2, despite solo homers from Chris Iannetta and Brad Hawpe. Ubaldo Jimenez threw 4.1 ~~strong~~ lousy innings, giving up 7, and the fightin' Mannys completed the sweep. Rox remain just a half game ahead of the Dbacks, at 4-7, but either way, that's guaranteed to change tomorrow when we return to Phoenix for another 9 game homestand. Let's hope this one goes slightly better than the last one. In other news, I have a feeling that Russ has just finally banned me from Purple Row.

Thanks to everyone who posted in the Gameday Thread, including Pyromnc, unnamedDBacksfan, LucaMaz3, soco, mrssoco, Jim McLennan, kishi, TAP, Sprankton, emilylovesthedbacks, hotclaws, chem, Diamondhacks, Tim Weiss, DbacksSkins, venomfan, victor frankenstein, J Up, Wailord, Scrbl, Muu, AF DBacks Fanatic, Quin, luckycc, Wimb, IndyDBack, haas, dbacksbj. Nearly 500 comments on this Sunday afternoon, and for what may be the first time this year, yours truly was not first in quantity of comments -- nor even second. Nope, in fact, my new protégé, Pyromnc, was the only poster in triple digits. Kishi was second, with 40, edging me by one. 'Hacks just sent me a very nice thank you note.

Badass of the day: Max Scherzer, +13.2%
Boarding the bus to Reno: Chris Young, -18%
Shoulda stayed in bed: Felipe Lopez, -13.5%; Chris Snyder, -11.3%; Mark Reynolds: -11.1%

I place all blame on Melvin for this one, as he forgot to inform the team that Randy Johnson pitching a 1-hitter in a Dbacks game is no longer a GOOD thing. Max Scherzer is now 0-5 in the big leagues, proving beyond the shadow of a doubt that he is a total bust as a draft pick and a pitcher's W/L record is not total bullshit. Jon Garland, whose 1-1 record proves that he's obviously a better pitcher than Max, pitches tomorrow, matching up against former two-time Diamondback Jorge De La Rosa, who's looking for his first win of the season. More importantly, tomorrow is JennyFest/The Jenning/MiniSnakePitFestApaloozaThonFair! Hope to see a lot of you there.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have a date with a bottle of Jack Daniel's. It's a LOOONG season.

Know Your Foe: Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 23:15:07 -0000

Happy Tuesday. Opening Day is 13 days away! That means it is time to evaluate who exactly will be representing our divisional foes on the field in 2009. This week I run down what the most likely 25-man roster will be for the Dodgers and Giants, and the D-Backs and Padres will follow next Monday.

Note on projections: All projections are courtesy of CHONE (except Steve Holm, which is a Bill James projection due to CHONE ignoring Holm's existence). Some bench players and bullpen arms were projected for quite exorbitant at-bats or innings, so they were scaled linearly down to reasonable numbers.

Note on format: Bold items represent locks. For example, all eight starters for the Dodgers are set, but Blake DeWitt and Delwyn Young are still fighting for a bench spot. And off we go...

Los Angeles Dodgers

Lineup:

All eight starters in the lineup are set, with only the batting order left to decide. Rafael Furcal will hit first, followed by Orlando Hudson, but the rest is yet to be determined.

Order	Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
1	Rafael Furcal	SS	560	.284	11	51	.358	.412	.347
2	Orlando Hudson	2B	486	.276	10	54	.353	.407	.340
3	Andre Ethier	RF	489	.292	16	69	.366	.468	.365
4	Manny Ramirez	LF	483	.290	32	101	.399	.542	.408
5	James Loney	1B	527	.294	13	80	.355	.446	.352
6	Russell Martin	C	500	.286	14	74	.384	.434	.366
7	Matt Kemp	CF	498	.299	16	74	.353	.476	.365
8	Casey Blake	3B	490	.259	20	66	.336	.439	.341

This line-up would be expected to produce 5.332 runs/game as constructed (or a max of 5.410 with optimal orientation). This equates to 863.8 total runs during the season.

Judging by wOBA, the starting lineup features one elite hitter (Ramirez), zero very good hitters, seven above average hitters (Furcal, Hudson, Ethier, Loney, Martin, Kemp and Blake), zero average hitters, and zero below average hitters.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Dodgers are no longer punchless. In fact, their offense is quite scary. You might be surprised to know they are projected to score north of 11 total runs more than the Rockies projected lineup.

Bench:

Brad Ausmus was signed to replace Danny Ardoin as Russell Martin's backup. Ausmus should get more playing time than Ardoin, but Martin still hogs the plate like no other catcher. Loretta will be the chief pinch hitter, and Juan Pierre will be on the bench solely because his salary makes him untradable.

Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Brad Ausmus	C	186	.212	2	17	.299	.280	.269
Mark Loretta	IF	247	.262	2	23	.338	.342	.309
Juan Pierre	OF	222	.283	1	14	.328	.357	.312
Delwyn Young	OF	171	.262	5	24	.320	.429	.328
Blake DeWitt	IF	252	.252	6	30	.316	.378	.308

Delwyn Young is out of options, so expect him to fill in at the fifth outfielder slot over the recently signed Doug Mientkiewicz - he would also provide the main power threat off the bench. The final bench spot will go to an infielder who can play short. Blake DeWitt is the best offensive option, although he could struggle defensively at short. Chin-Lung Hu and Juan Castro are DeWitt's competition.

You just have to feel bad for DeWitt. Jeff Kent retired, Nomar Garciaparra and Casey Blake were free agents. After a solid rookie year in 08, DeWitt had a starting job...until GM Ned Colletti brought in three free agents that could push him clear off the roster.

Rotation:

Joe Torre has constructed his rotation for a RLRL beginning. Randy Wolf hopes to soften the losses of Derek Lowe and Brad Penny.

Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K
Hiroki Kuroda	158.0	9	8	3.98	1.31	106
Randy Wolf	124.0	7	7	4.42	1.41	103
Chad Billingsley	161.0	10	8	3.68	1.33	156
Clayton Kershaw	115.0	7	6	4.28	1.44	102
Claudio Vargas	108.0	6	6	4.71	1.38	80

This gives Chad Billingsley the home opener. The fifth starter position is still a roulette wheel. None of the contenders have impressed, so James McDonald, Eric Stults, Eric Milton, and even 2008 2nd round pick Josh Lindblom has a longshot chance. In January, an additional game was added for April 7, so the Dodgers can't take advantage of the schedule to put off their decision.

Bullpen:

Jonathan Broxton will get his first shot as a full-year closer, though Hong-Chih Kuo has closer stuff. Guillermo Mota returns to LA, while 2008 pleasant surprsie Cory Wade is guaranteed a spot.

Role	Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K/9
Closer	Jonathan Broxton	72.0	5	3	2.78	1.15	10.88
LH Set-up	Hong-Chih Kuo	45.0	3	2	2.69	1.18	11.00
RH set-up	Guillermo Mota	56.0	3	3	4.46	1.42	7.58
RH set-up	Cory Wade	53.0	3	3	4.00	1.25	7.30
2nd LHP	Scott Elbert	43.0	2	2	4.34	1.47	10.47
Relief	James McDonald	57.0	3	3	5.10	1.39	7.72
Relief	Jeff Weaver	50.0	2	3	5.19	1.41	5.59

Scott Elbert is has the lead in the LHP race, and James McDonald is assured of a relief role if he doesn't become the fifth starter. The final spot in the bullpen is likely between Jeff Weaver and Claudio Vargas, though Eric Stults, Ramon Troncoso, Brian Mazone, Tanyon Sturtze, Erick Threets, and Lindblom remain in contention.

Why the Dodgers will win the NL West:

The Dodgers boast exceptional lineup by divisional standards, with practically zero question marks. The bullpen is strong and capable of reining in strikeouts. With Manny Ramirez in the fold, they are the favorite in the division.

Why the Dodgers will NOT win the NL West:

This rotation is as weak as Los Angeles has fielded in some time. Kuroda and Wolf are decent rotation pieces, but LA will strongly be relying on the young arms of Billingsley and Kershaw. Then consider the disaster of a fifth starter and Manny's potential undoing, and it's easy to imagine a scenario where another NL West foe leapfrogs the defending champs.

San Francisco Giants

Lineup:

Emmanuel Burriss could replace Kevin Frandsen in the starting lineup, but the other seven starters are decided. The lineup has yet to be announced, but it could follow as such:

Order	Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
1	Randy Winn	RF	563	.281	12	55	.341	.412	.336
2	Edgar Renteria	SS	534	.283	11	59	.345	.408	.335
3	Fred Lewis	LF	.446	.262	9	46	.346	.404	.335
4	Bengie Molina	C	453	.276	16	71	.314	.435	.327
5	Pablo Sandoval	3B	477	.283	11	68	.315	.426	.324
6	Travis Ishikawa	1B	431	.248	16	67	.322	.432	.331
7	Aaron Rowand	CF	523	.273	14	64	.338	.421	.335
8	Kevin Frandsen	2B	382	.288	6	44	.343	.411	.334

That line-up is worth a mere 4.448 runs/game (peaking at 4.473 arranged differently). That's the same as just 720.5 total runs.

Look at the wOBA like we did with the Dodgers. From that we can conclude that the starting lineup features zero elite hitters, zero very good hitters, six average hitters (Winn, Renteria, Lewis, Ishikawa, Rowand and Frandsen) and two below average hitters (Sandoval, Molina). Take your pick of statistical analysis - all project the Giants to have an abysmal offense.

Bench:

Rich Aurilia is all but assured of a bench spot, and Nate Schierholtz will earn one as well due to being out of options. Burriss will either start or find a spot on the bench, and Steve Holm is the only contender as the backup catcher.

Player	Position	AB	BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Rich Aurilia	IF	377	.263	10	43	.320	.398	.318
Nate Schierholtz	OF	311	.291	9	44	.331	.471	.348
Emmanuel Burriss	IF	323	.270	2	34	.331	.347	.308
Steve Holm	C	181	.238	5	21	.312	.365	.306
Andres Torres	OF	208	.251	4	19	.328	.388	.321

Eugenio Velez has attempted to learn OF to get the fifth bench spot, but it might not be enough. Juan Uribe, who signed this offseason, also looks to be an odd man out. Andres Torres appears to have a solid shot at the 5th OF spot with his hot spring; he is 31and spent each of the last three seasons in AAA with a different organization.

Rotation:

Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K
Tim Lincecum	154.0	10	7	3.05	1.23	175
Randy Johnson	109.0	6	6	3.85	1.27	96
Matt Cain	189.0	11	10	3.84	1.32	166
Barry Zito	176.0	8	11	4.81	1.55	120
Jonathan Sanchez	120.0	6	7	4.02	1.39	116

By far the Giants' strength, the rotation has all but been set since Randy Johnson signed. Like Joe Torre, Bruce Bochy is constructing his rotation in a RLRL fashion.

Bullpen:

The Giants acted quickly to sign Affeldt and Howry, who will set up for Brian Wilson. Sergio Romo is currently sidelined with an elbow injury and won't be ready for Opening Day, but there will be a spot waiting for him when he returns soon thereafter.

Role	Player	IP	W	L	FIP	WHIP	K/9
Closer	Brian Wilson	65.0	4	4	3.71	1.38	8.72
LH Set-up	Jeremy Affeldt	79.0	5	4	3.70	1.35	7.86
RH set-up	Bob Howry	63.0	4	3	3.62	1.25	7.00
2nd LHP	Jack Taschner	59.0	3	4	4.20	1.44	7.78
Relief	Sergio Romo	60.0	4	6	3.76	1.20	9.15
Relief	Merkin Valdez	30.0	1	2	4.69	1.50	7.88
Relief	Luis Perdomo	56.0	3	4	4.99	1.41	7.71

Jack Taschner's familiarity card might trump the hand of Alex Hinshaw, but Taschner could be traded, opening up the possibility for Hinshaw to be the middle relief southpaw. Luis Perdomo is a Rule 5 pick from St. Louis, and his decent spring points to a possible spot in the pen. Non-roster invitee Brandon Medders and Merkin Valdez will battle for the other opening.

Why the Giants will win the NL West:

With the Cy Young winners in tow, San Francicso just might have the best starting rotation in the division - only Arizona is otherwise in contention. Then consider the emerging Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez. The bullpen will be decent, especially with the back end headed by All-Star closer Brian Wilson. The lineup has candidates to significantly exceed projections (such as Pablo Sandoval), so it is possible they could score just enough for the pitchers to lead them to the top.

Why the Giants will NOT win the NL West:

It remains to be seen whether Lincecum and Cain's arms can hold up after ridiculous abuse in 2008. A long term injury to either would be debilitating to their divisional hopes. Zito and RJ are tailing off in their respective careers. And then there's the offense. The lineup is constructed solely of veterans past their prime and unproven youngsters. Even with a helthy Lincecum and Cain, don't expect the lineup to produce enough for divisional aspirations.

Thanks to Eric Stephen and Grant for their assistance in achieving accuracy.