SB Nation - Javier Vazquez

MLB Trade Rumors: Javier Vazquez to the Rockies for Brad Hawpe??

raygu — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:30:14 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

2 months ago: Colorado Rockies' Brad Hawpe follows the flight of his three-run home run against the San Diego Padres in the first inning of a baseball game in Denver on Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Yesterday, I discussed a trade scenario involving the Braves sending Derek Lowe to the Cubs for Alfonso Soriano. Today, I propose the Braves deal ace starting pitcher Javier Vazquez to the Rockies for outfielder Brad Hawpe. This deal helps both teams as the Braves get the big bat they need and the Rockies get an ace starting pitcher that could put them over the top in the NL West.

I shudder the thought:)

This deal would also allow the Rockies to give outfielder Seth Smith the everyday job in left field. With Smith in LF, Dexter Fowler in CF and Carlos Gonzalez in RF, the Rockies would have a very young outfield all capable of hitting close to .300, with Smith and Gonzalez capable of hitting 20-25 HRs annually.

Hawpe could play RF till uber prospect Jason Heyward is ready for prime time, which could be in April. Should Heyward be ready, Hawpe could move to LF where he is probably more suited to play, as he is one of the worst fielding right fielders in the league. But Hawpe provides the Braves with the power hitter that they are sorely lacking.

Hawpe went 23-86-.285-.384-.519-.903 in 2009 in 501 ABs, almost identical to his 2008 season where he went 25-85-.283-.381-.498-.879. He is scheduled to make $7.5 million in 2010, with a $10 million club option in 2011.

Vazquez went 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 32 starts in 2009. He is scheduled to make $11.5 million in 2010, and becomes a free agent after the 2010 season.

Poll

Who hangs up first in the proposed Brad Hawpe-Javy Vazquez deal?

Braves' Soriano Accepts Arbitration

gondeee — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:55:40 -0000

The Atlanta Braves off-season just got a bit more interesting. Reliever Rafael Soriano has decided to accept arbitration and remain with the Braves for 2010, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. Through arbitration, the Braves will likely end up paying Soriano anywhere from $6.5 to $8 million for next season. With $10 million plus already committed to Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, it is likely that the Braves will explore ways to trade Soriano -- something they would need his approval for from now until the middle of June.

With Soriano likely relegated to a setup role in the early innings, he and his agent may be inclined to ask for a trade. In fact this could have been the strategy all along -- to take the guaranteed money and let the Braves do the leg work in finding another team that needs his services.

Fitting his salary into the bullpen certainly seems outside of the budget of the Braves, so if they cannot trade him something else will have to give. This could affect who they tender contracts to next month, as someone like Kelly Johnson may no longer be affordable. They could also choose to trade both Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez to free up salary space, attempting to land a cheaper starting pitching option in return for one.

Soriano also risks being cut in spring training and his salary not being guaranteed. There are some fancy baseball rules behind that (which I'm sure we'll learn in the coming days), but surely he and his agent gave that some thought.

Of course, if the Braves keep Soriano and are able to fit him into their payroll, then the Braves suddenly have the best bullpen in baseball -- a nice commodity for a manager who loves to use his bullpen.

The biggest impact here is how this move will affect the other moves the Braves may be planning. The next couple of days will be interesting, to see if Atlanta makes any trades to free up salary. The Braves other free agent who was offered arbitration, Mike Gonzalez, has apparently declined arbitration.

MLB Trade Rumors: Alfonso Soriano to the Braves for Derek Lowe?

raygu — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 18:00:16 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

4 months ago: Chicago Cubs' Alfonso Soriano launches a grand slam off Houston Astros relief pitcher Chris Sampson during the 13th inning of a baseball game Monday, July 27, 2009, at Wrigley Field in Chicago. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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Everyone knows that the Braves are looking to deal one of their excess starting pitchers, starting with Derek Lowe. We all know they will deal either Lowe or Javier Vazquez. How about dealing one bad contract for another? Alfonso Soriano to play left field for Derek Lowe?

The Cubs have been rumored to deal Milton Bradley to the Rays for Pat Burrell, but where would Burrell play? He can only play LF or maybe 1B, but the Cubs have Derrek Lee at 1B. It would make sense for the Braves as they need a power bat in their lineup, and they aren''t going to get alot if they deal Lowe, so why not take on another bad contract in Soriano.

Soriano will make $18 million in each of the next 5 years through 2014, while Lowe will make $15 million in 2010-2012. If the Cubs eat some of Soriano's contract, or throw in a prospect or two, it might even out the deal.

The Cubs would use Lowe to replace free agent starting pitcher Rich Harden, and team him up with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells in the Cubs rotation.

Does this deal make sense for both teams?

Poll

Who would hang up first in a proposed deal of Alfonso Soriano for Derek Lowe?

MLB Trade Rumors: Winter Meetings Coverage Begins Monday

raygu — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 14:00:17 -0000

by Aaron J. Latham - AP

2 months ago: San Diego Padres' David Eckstein, left, celebrates with teammate Adrian Gonzalez, right, after they scored on Gonzalez's home run in the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009 in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Aaron J. Latham)

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We at Fake Teams will be covering the trades and signings that occur at the Winter Meetings that start today in Indianapolis. We will address the fantasy impact of the trades and signings that occur this week and throughout the offseason. The biggest name discussed at the Winter Meetings will be the Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay.

Some of the rumored deals could involve the following players changing uniforms:

Steve Henson from Yahoo Sports tweeted the following last night:

The Dodgers have 3-4 teams interested in $$ Juan Pierre and a 3-team deal is being explored to get L.A. a bad-contract starter in return.
The "bad contract" starter the Dodgers might get for Juan Pierre would not be Derek Lowe, a source said. That bridge has burned.

It appears the Yankees and Red Sox are the favorites for Roy Halladay. Halladay to the Yankees for a package of Jesus Montero and Phil Hughes? Halladay to the Red Sox for Clay Buchholz and Josh Reddick? Halladay to the Phils for J.A. Happ and Michael Taylor? The Giants may make sense for Dan Uggla, but where would he play with Freddy Sanchez at second? I'd be shocked if Adrian Gonzalez isn't dealt to the Red Sox now that former Sox Jed Hoyer is the new GM in San Diego. Josh Willingham in Atlanta makes sense.

Would the rumored Milton Bradley-Pat Burrell deal result in one of the worst outfields in the majors? How can Pat Burrell and Alfonso Soriano play in the same outfield? Pierre makes sense in St. Louis, Chicago and Cincinnati, especially with Dusty Baker managing the Reds. Pierre for Arroyo??

Poll

Who is more likely to get traded during the Winter Meetings this week?

Washington Nationals: Winter Meetings Update.

Ed Chigliak — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 22:55:50 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

Detroit Tigers' pitcher Edwin Jackson is being offered around by the Detroit Tigers, who are seeking to cut payroll this offseason. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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In following up on yesterday's article about the pitchers the Nationals were targeting at the upcoming Winter Meetings, (at least according to Washington Post writer Dave Sheinin, who wrote, in an article entitled, "Nats aren't expecting hot stove fireworks", that Washington was interested in the Braves' Javier Vazquez, the Marlins' Ricky Nolasco and the Tigers' Edwin Jackson), I thought I'd look into what sort of return the Detroit Tigers were looking to get for right-hander Edwin Jackson, and Jackson in particular, only because I continue to read articles every day about how eager the Tigers reportedly are to cut payroll by dealing either Jackson or outfielder Curtis Granderson, if not both...

In YahooSports.com's Jeff Passan's article a few weeks back (11/24/09) on the clubs interested in Cuban left-hander Noel Arguelles (who signed Saturday with Kansas City) entitled, "Cuban defector Arguelles attracts suitors", Mr. Passan seemed astonished by, as he put it, "The level to which Detroit is foisting right-hander Edwin Jackson on anybody who will listen – 'It's like they want to give him away,' one executive said, 'and I don’t really understand why.'"

On November 30th, SI.com's Jon Heyman sent out a Tweet which read:

"#tigers sought young pitchers brandon morrow and shawn kelley for edwin jackson. #mariners apparently said no."

Seattle Times' Mariners Blog writer Geoff Baker wrote the next day in an article entitled, "Report: Mariners turned down deal for Edwin Jackson", that his initial reaction to the offer was that, "...those two arms would have been too high a price to pay for Jackson alone. After all, Jackson will be a free agent in two years and his pricetag is considerably higher than Morrow and Kelley put together," and MLive.com writer James Schmehl wrote in an article entitled, "Seattle Mariners reject Tigers offer...", that he understood why the Mariners would be loath to include Morrow in any deal with Detroit:

"It's understandable why the Mariners backed out on dealing for Jackson. Morrow would come very cheap for the Tigers after he fell 50 days shy of Super Two status."

Morrow, the Mariners' '06 1st Round pick, taken 5th overall, was the top-ranked pitcher in Seattle's system in 2006. The then-22-year-old right-hander (now 25) debuted in the Majors in April 2007, and over his first 3 major league seasons, he's moved back and forth between starting and relieving, putting together an (8-12) career record thus far, with a 3.96 ERA in 131 G, (15 GS), over which he's pitched 197.2 innings, collecting 16 saves, 204 K's (9.3 K/9) and posting a 1.47 WHIP, (+1.7 WAR, 5.05 FIP). Shawn Kelley's a 25-year-old right-hander taken in the 15th Round of the '07 Draft, who debuted with Seattle last season and was (5-4) with a 4.50 ERA in 40 relief appearances in which he allowed 45 hits, 23 runs, 9 HR's and 9 BB (1.8 BB/9), while recording 41 K's (8.0 K/9).

It doesn't sound like the Tigers are looking for a Josh Willingham in return...What, if anything, would you be willing to give up to get Edwin Jackson from Detroit?

Speaking Of Willingham...

MLB.com's Bill Ladson (twitter.com/washingnats) sent out a twitter message this morning, before he boarded a plane for Indiana and the Winter Meetings, which read simply, "The Mets have interest in Josh Willingham. I'll have more on Nationals.com," and later in the afternoon, MLB.com's Mr. Ladson published an article entitled, "Nationals' Willingham on Mets' radar", wherein Mr. Ladson wrote that according to a "baseball source" we can, "Add the Mets as one of the teams who have interest in Nationals left fielder Josh Willingham," along with the Giants, Mariners and Braves.

FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi wrote about Atlanta's interest in acquiring Willingham in a mid-November update of their, "MLB Offseason buzz", report entitled, "Nats Drawing interest in Willingham", where one or both of the authors questioned why the Nationals would want to, or if they could afford to trade their left fielder before noting that, "The Braves, looking for a right-handed power hitter, like Willingham but harbor concerns about his defense and past back troubles."

So unless Mr.'s Ladson, Rosenthal, Morosi and the Boston Globe's Nick Carfado all have the same sources, those are the four teams in the market for the Nationals' left fielder. Mr. Ladson, back in his article "Nationals' Willingham on Mets' radar", cautions the teams seeking to work out a deal that they shouldn't, "...look for the Nats to give Willingham away. Washington would most likely want pitching in return. Who it wants from New York is not known, though."

• Check Out what the Mets fans at the SB Nation's Mets blog, Amazin' Avenue, think of a deal for Josh Willingham.

Poll

What Will The Nationals Accomplish At The Winter Meetings In Indianapolis?

Washington Nationals: Winter Meetings Targets...Starting Pitching.

Ed Chigliak — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 06:30:21 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

Can the Nationals pull off a trade for the Tigers' Edwin Jackson, one of three pitchers mentioned as targets by the Washington Post's Dave Sheinin. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

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Washington Post writer Dave Sheinin wrote this afternoon, in an article entitled, "Nats aren't expecting hot stove fireworks", about the Washington Nationals' goals for next week's Winter Meetings. Mr. Sheinin restates what the Nationals have been saying all fall and continue to repeat heading into the start of the Meetings on Monday, they want to add, "At least one veteran starting pitcher, at least one reliable veteran reliever, a catcher and perhaps a middle infielder," and are now favoring trades over free agent signings as the avenue through which they'd like to address those needs, but for the first time, Mr. Sheinin identifies some of the pitchers the Nationals are looking at:

"Among the possible targets are pitchers whose contracts their teams are looking to shed, such as Atlanta's Javier Vazquez (one year remaining at $11.5 million), or arbitration-eligible pitchers whose teams need payroll savings, such as Florida's Ricky Nolasco or Detroit's Edwin Jackson."

(cont.)...

The Detroit Tigers, according to FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi's 11/11/09 article entitled, "Sources: Tigers open to trading All-Star Jackson", which quotes "multiple major league sources" as the source of the reports, have, "...made Jackson available on the trade market as part of an effort to alleviate their payroll crunch," though Mr. Morosi updated the situation in Detroit today in an update of FOXSports.com's, "Latest Buzz from the MLB offseason", subtitled, "Sources: Tigers not likely to trade Cabrera any time soon", wherein Mr. Morosi writes that though the Tigers probably can't deal Miguel Cabrera for a variety of reasons:

"'If the team dealt Cabrera, team president/general manager Dave Dombrowski would have less motivation to deal starter Edwin Jackson and popular center fielder Curtis Granderson."

But since the Tigers don't think they can contend without Cabrera's power in their lineup, in Mr. Morosi's opinion, "At this point, the sources believe that the Tigers are more likely to trade Jackson and/or Granderson than Cabrera." Jackson, a 26-year-old right-hander originally drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers, was traded to Tampa Bay in 2006 and then moved to Detroit last December in a Winter Meeting trade that sent outfielder Matt Joyce to the Rays. In his third full season in the majors (7th overall), the right-hander was (13-9) with a 3.62 ERA in 33 starts and 214.0 IP in 2009, over which he posted a 1.26 WHIP, walking 70 (2.9 BB/9) while recording 161 K's (6.8 K/BB) with a (+3.5) WAR value according to Fangraphs.com.

The Atlanta Braves, according to MLB.com's Mark Bowman's blog post entitled, "Wren heading to Indy with a shorter shopping list", will be heading into the Winter Meetings with the intention of, "...finding at least one bat and a suitor that is willing to deal for either Derek Lowe or Javier Vazquez." The Washington Post's Mr. Sheinin points to right-hander Javier Vazquez's 1-year/$11.5 million dollar deal which the Braves would be seeking to shed as the reason the Nationals' might be able to pry the 33-year-old former Montreal Expos' draft pick who's now pitched for the Expos, Yankees, D-Backs and White Sox, away from the Braves, for whom he was (15-10) with a 2.87 ERA in 32 starts and 219.1 IP in 2009, over which he allowed 181 H, 70 ER, 20 HR and 44 walks (1.8 BB/9), while collecting 238 K's (9.8 K/9) and posting a 1.03 WHIP and a (+6.6) WAR rating.

Two days before Mr. Sheinin mentioned the Nationals' interest in the Marlins' Ricky Nolasco, MLB.com's Bill Ladson, in an article entitled, "Pitching the focus for Nats at Meetings", wrote that, "...a baseball source indicated that the Nats have interest in Marlins right-hander Ricky Nolasco, who won 13 games this past season," prompting the SB Nation's Florida Marlins blog FishStripes' Craig Strain to email Nolasco's agent Matt Sosnick, who replied, as quoted in an article entitled, "Ricky Nolasco being shopped?":

"I haven't heard anything about that, but I believe that he is going to have a monster year in 2010. He is the most underrated player that I represent."

(ed. note - "Emailing the agent? Brilliant...I wonder when in the process of a trade the agent would know?")

Nolasco, a soon-to-be 27-year-old right-hander drafted by the Chicago Cubs in the 4th Round of the 2001 Draft and subsequently traded to Florida in a deal in which the Marlins acquired pitchers Sergio Mitre, Renyel Pinto and Nolasco in return for outfielder Juan Pierre, signed a 1-year/$2.4 million dollar deal, avoiding arbitration, is once again eligible and headed for a raise after his fourth MLB season, in which the Corona, California native was (13-9) with a 5.06 ERA in 31 starts and 185.0 IP in which he allowed 188 hits and 104 ER, walking 44 (2.1 K/9) and striking out 195 (9.5 K/9), while posting a 1.25 WHIP, with a (+4.2) WAR value.

?'s And LINKS For The DC Faithful...

At the trading dealine last July, MLB.com's Bill Ladson wrote, in a blog post entitled, "Willingham, Dunn drawing interest", that the Tigres were interested in both Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn, both of whom they saw as potential designated hitters...Would you expect more than Edwin Jackson from Detroit in return for Willingham? Would the Tigers want more than the Hammer? What's the Nationals' equivalent of Matt Joyce, who was ranked as high as 7th in the Tigers' system in 2007? The Atlanta Braves, according to Boston.com's Nick Carfado's article entitled, "Lowe prefers not to be spun out of Braves' rotation", are one of three teams, along with the Giants and Mariners who are interested in acquiring the Hammer. Can the Marlins and Nationals please stop trading with one another? It's embarrassing...Will the Fish or Braves trade pitchers as good as Nolasco and Vazquez in their own division? Can the Nationals bring Javier Vazquez, an Expos' pick from the 5th round of the '94 draft back into the fold? Do the Nationals have any chance of acquiring any of these pitchers?

Braves Rumors

Eli Greenspan — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 00:53:33 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

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After signing two relievers earlier this week, the Braves are still keeping tabs on the market in hopes of landing an outfielder or first baseman. The Braves are still talking with Adam LaRoche, but reports that they are also talking to Nick Johnson indicate that the LaRoche negotiations might not be going as planned.

Johnson hit .291 with 8 home runs in 133 games with the Nationals and Marlins last season, and is also drawing interest from the Mets, Orioles, and Giants. Sources say the Giants are the favorites to land him.

In the outfield, the Braves are considering Marlon Byrd and Mark DeRosa. DeRosa, a former Brave, would give the Braves a reliable veteran who can play the corner outfield spots, first, second, and third base. He is coming off back-to-back 20 home run seasons, but offseason wrist surgery might bring his power back down to the 10-12 homer range.

Byrd is also coming off a solid season, and would give the Braves a solid center fielder, meaning Nate McLouth can be moved to one of the corners. Byrd hit well for the Rangers, but was not as patient at the plate as he was in 2008.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Marlon Byrd	146	547	66	155	43	2	20	89	32	98	8	4	.283	.329	.479

One AL source contemplated the idea of the Braves and Tigers discussing a deal around Curtis Granderson. The Braves have an influx of pitching, and could send Javier Vazquez or Derek Lowe (with cash) in a package for the outfielder. As of right now, that has not been confirmed.

Next week the Braves will talk with the representatives of Adam LaRoche, who has drawn interest from the Mets, and likely will try to deal a starting pitcher to free up some additional cash.

Beyond the Game Score: Park-Adjusted Game WAR

SFiercex4 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 16:56:46 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

San Francisco Giants' Jonathan Sanchez, right, is embraced by catcher Eli Whiteside at the end of a baseball game after hearing that his no-hitter against the San Diego Padres Friday, July 10, 2009, in San Francisco, had the highest WAR total of the season among individual starts. Hug it out, gentlemen, what a great accomplishment! I'm getting a little teary-eyed just talking about it myself. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

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Recently, Crashburn Alley's Bill Baer did a piece on Game Score and consistency which found its way onto resident chief Tommy Bennett's No Pepper links. Apparently, Tommy's not a fan of Game Score, and neither am I.

I had been recently trying to come up with a way to adjust Game Score for defense and park, maybe attempt a shot at a new Game Score formula for batted balls. This seemed like an interesting side project to tackle until VEP posted this one-line gem:

I just use Game WAR.

I was floored. What an simple yet elegant concept. I decided to have some fun with the data and throw out some Game WAR numbers for the BtB readership. Here's what I did.

Methodology

I took all non-Interleague starts this season with a Game Score over 80. I decided to exclude Interleague games to eliminate the need to determine average run support in an Interleague game (in retrospect, I suppose I could have used NL/AL average runs/game in Interleague play, but I already did the work, so take that). For what it's worth, I had to remove seven games from the sample of total starts with a Game Score above 80. This left me with 121 starts, ranging from Jonathan Sanchez's no-hitter (Game Score of 98) to Randy Johnson's April 19th start against the Arizona Diamondbacks (Game Score of 80). Of the 9276 starts made outside of Interleague play this season, this supposedly represents the best 1.3% of starts this season.

For my methodology for pitcher WAR, I used FIP as the run-determining metric to separate defense from pitching, mostly because of ease. I took all the relevant FIP statistcs (strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, intentional walks, and home runs) and calculated FIP, using 3.19 as the scalar to ERA (the NL should have been 3.18 and the AL should have been 3.20, but these points shouldn't matter all that much). I park-adjusted the pitcher's FIP according to Patriot's five-year regressed park factors and stuck the inputs into Pythagenpat. Since all of Patriot's factors are already adjusted to account for players playing half their games at their home park, I reversed the adjustments for this exercise by doing the following:

PFGmWAR = [(PF-1)*2] + 1

This was done to get pure run inflation/deflation values for each park.

I used NL and AL non-Interleague average runs scored as the run support component. I used a .380 win% pitcher as replacement level.

Just for fun, I also decided to look at an old question brought up by Jeff of Lookout Landing, regarding A.J. Burnett and the myth of inconsistency. I grabbed game logs for three Yankees, Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and C.C. Sabathia, during the 2009 season and calculated Game WAR. I also took a look at [Game +1 WAR - Game WAR] (difference between consecutive starts).

The Numbers

I have all of the 121 starts listed in this Google spreadsheet for your perusal, but here I'll list the top 10 Game Scores of the season with relevant data and game WAR. I'll also then list the top 10 Game WAR games with data and Game Scores.

Ranked by Game Score

Gscr Rk	GmWAR Rk	Player	Date	Opp	IP	K	BB	FIP/0.92	GmWAR	Gscr
1	1	Jonathan Sanchez	7/10	SDP	9	11	0	0.81	0.56	98
T-2	T-33	Chris Carpenter	9/7	MIL	9	10	2	1.78	0.44	93
T-2	T-28	Mark Buehrle	7/23	TBR	9	6	0	2.02	0.45	93
T-4	T-5	Cliff Lee	8/19	ARI	9	11	0	1.17	0.53	92
T-4	T-16	Justin Verlander	5/8	CLE	9	11	2	1.54	0.49	92
T-6	T-44	Roy Halladay	9/4	NYY	9	9	3	2.38	0.40	91
T-6	T-22	Cole Hamels	9/1	SFG	9	9	1	1.66	0.47	91
T-6	T-24	Tim Lincecum	6/29	STL	9	8	0	1.54	0.46	91
T-6	T-19	Jeff Niemann	6/3	KCR	9	9	1	1.66	0.48	91
T-10	T-37	Carlos Zambrano	9/25	SFG	9	8	1	1.90	0.43	90

Note: There were three other games listed at Game Score of 90, I just listed the first one on the list for convenience.

Ranked by Game WAR

GmWAR Rk	Gscr Rk	Player	Date	Opp	IP	K	BB	FIP/0.92	GmWAR	Gscr
1	1	Jonathan Sanchez	7/10	SDP	9	11	0	0.81	0.56	98
T-2	T-36	Zack Greinke	5/4	CHW	9	10	0	1.05	0.55	85
T-2	T-36	Tim Lincecum	4/18	ARI	8	13	0	0.00*	0.55	85
T-2	T-57	Zack Greinke	4/18	TEX	9	10	0	1.05	0.55	83
T-2	T-23	Tim Lincecum	7/27	PIT	9	15	3	0.93	0.55	87
T-6	T-91	Ricky Nolasco	9/30	ATL	7.67	16	2	0.00*	0.53	81
T-6	T-4	Cliff Lee	8/19	ARI	9	11	0	1.17	0.53	92
T-8	T-75	Roy Halladay	9/25	SEA	9	9	0	1.29	0.52	82
T-8	T-19	Zack Greinke	4/24	DET	9	10	1	1.41	0.52	88
T-8	T-14	Wandy Rodriguez	7/8	PIT	9	11	1	1.17	0.52	87

*These games actually recorded negative FIP, but that of course broke the Pythagorean equation (at least on Excel). For those games I used a FIP of 0.

What do we see in these two lists? Well first off, none of these games are actually bad. There were a few games in the overall list in which pitchers had mediocre Three True Outcomes performances but allowed few hits and runs, resulting in good Game Scores but mediocre WAR totals. But in the top 10 performances, there were no poor performances to be shown, unsurprisingly. Also, the top 10 Game WAR list is comforting because it contains a lot of names from whom we would expect to see great starts, particularly Cy Young winners Zack Greinke and Tim Lincecum. As a whole, these 121 games totaled 45.5 WAR if added up (which I know isn't really the correct method for calculating the WAR as a whole, but it likely comes close) in 1027 innings, a rate of 0.40 WAR/ 9 innings. Only Roy Halladay's start versus the Yankees came out as "average" for the sample.

That being said, there is not a whole lot of agreement between the two lists. Only two games appear in both lists, Cliff Lee's Philadelphia start versus Arizona and the overall leader, Sanchez's no-hitter against the Padres. In the 121-start sample, the R-squared of between Game Score and Game WAR was 0.26, and this should come as no surprise. Pitchers receive the full credit for all aspects of the game under Game Score, while FIP attempts to separate out defensive contributions. The strikeouts, walks/HBP, and home runs are there, but the remainder of the hits and outs are not credited to the pitcher in FIP.

When looking at the Game Score formula, I found that it weights innings pitched very heavily, as it gives bonus points for innings pitched/outs made after the fourth inning. When looking at the top 50 performances by Game Score, only 10 starts were of less than nine innings, and only one lasted less than eight. In the entire sample, 51 starts lasted fewer than nine innings. When ranked by Game WAR, 18 performances of less than nine innings made the top 50. I do think that shows some bias towards complete games that isn't reflected in the Game WAR ranking.

The home run, on the other hand, was punished more severely in the Game WAR system than the Game Score system. The first start to contain a home run when ranking by Game Score was Javier Vazquez's 6/11 start against Pittsburgh, ranked 32nd on the list. He struck out 12 and walked none in eight innings, picking up a 2-1 loss (and people think he pitched poorly!). However, when ranked by Game WAR, the first appearance of a home run comes from Gavin Floyd's 9/5 start against Boston, in which he gives up one homer, while striking out 11 and walking none in eight innings. That start is ranked 58th. Vazquez's start is ranked 63rd. While Game Score weights your average home run at maybe -2 to -3 points on a scale beginning at 50, home runs have a much more staggering weight on performance in WAR, especially at such low inning totals. Allowing one homer in nine innings of play already starts your FIP at 4.63, well below the league average of around 4.3-4.4. As a comparison, when tallying all the statistics of these games as a unit, the average game FIP was 2.02 in these 121 games.

Some more interesting notes:

- Lincecum appears three times on the list, and Greinke appears four times. As you saw in the Game WAR top 10, two of each of their starts appear, in alternating order, tied for second on the list with 0.55 WAR. Amazing seasons.

- The most victimized team was, unsurprisingly, the Pittsburgh Pirates. The team appeared ten times as opponents, being victimized for 4.1 WAR.

- The worst start, after park adjustment, belongs to Chris Carpenter, who struck out three and allowed one homer among three hits in a complete game against Cincinnati.

- Dan Haren was the only pitcher to allow more than one home run, giving up two solo jacks among 10 strikeouts and no walks in nine innings in a 7-2 win against the Chicago Cubs.

- There were four starts made in San Diego, with an average Game Score of 82 but an average Game WAR of 0.26. Unsurprisingly, there were no starts in Colorado, though i suspect after park adjustment, a few Coors Field starts would do well in the Game WAR method.

Consistency Talk

As I mentioned, I collected the game logs for three Yankees starters for 2009, Burnett, Pettitte, and Sabathia. I uploaded them here for your viewing pleasure; the WAR and Game Score details are the end of the sheet for each player.

Here are the average and standard deviations for each player.

Player	Avg GmWAR	StdDev	Avg GmWARDiff	StdDev
A.J. Burnett	0.11	0.16	0.00	0.26
Andy Pettitte	0.12	0.15	-0.02	0.17
C.C. Sabathia	0.18	0.16	0.00	0.21

GmWARDiff refers to the difference in GmWAR between consecutive starts. I don't really think standard deviation is the way to go to measure something like this, and Jeff Zimmerman has said that doing something that breaks down performance into buckets with assigned percentage chances of the pitcher's team winning would be more appropriate. Perhaps using Game WAR would be more beneficial in this methodology, since Game WAR is technically representative of a fraction of an actual win during a game.

Still, if you take this at face value, you can see that, as Jeff pointed out, the standard deviations between actual start values aren't all that different between the three pitchers, only one of which has a reputation as an inconsistent pitcher. If you take the standard deviation of the pitcher's start-to-start differences, Burnett does seem to have a higher value, signifying that he is "more inconsistent," though I don't think it's all that worse than Sabathia.

I think this was an interesting look, and if I get a chance (i.e. time) a little bit later, I might pick up all of the game logs for 2009 and check out FIP-WAR for each of them. I certainly think that, if we wanted to compare individual game performances, this would be a better way to go than using Game Score.

Washington Nationals: Hot Stove Update.

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 10:39:22 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

Where will the Nationals turn for the help their roster needs this offseason? Can Mike Rizzo pull off a deal to improve their pitching? (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta, File)

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DC GM Mike Rizzo's tone when he told Washington Post writer Thomas Boswell (in an early September '09 article entitled, "Time to Make Most of This Horror Show", where he listed fourteen of the top free agent pitchers on the market), that he knew, "Some of (the pitchers) have club options that may be picked up...But that's a long list. We're going to get one of them," seemed much more assured than that with which he addressed the Nationals' approach to the upcoming Winter Meetings in MLB.com writer Bill Ladson's 12/2/09 article entitled, "Pitching the focus for Nats at Meetings", wherein he was quoted as stating:

"'We don't think that the free-agent class leads us to [pay big money]' Rizzo said. 'I believe the things we need or want the most are out there, and we are going to address it. I don't see us going after that super free agent like Matt Holliday or Jon Garland. I don't see us playing on that level. We don't think it's a fit for us.'"

Two weeks ago, MLB.com's Bill Ladson's "baseball source" said in an article entitled, "Nats interested in free agent Lackey", that the Nationals were, "one of several teams who have expressed interest in free agent right-hander John Lackey", and Mr. Ladson held Washington's pursuit, last winter, of free agent first baseman Mark Teixeira, (who, of course, signed with New York), up as an example of how, for "...the second year in a row...the Nationals have been players for a big name free agent," but two weeks later, Mr. Ladson's writing that DC fans should not, "...look for the Nationals to attempt to break the bank like they tried to do with first baseman Mark Teixeira during last year's Winter Meetings." Uh?...

• What made DC GM Mike Rizzo and the Nationals change their minds?

• Should the Nationals be pursuing pitching talent via free agency?

• Did you seriously think that Washington would sign someone like John Lackey this winter?

• Will the Nationals and their new GM be able to trade for the talent they think they need?

• The Marlins' Ricky Nolasco? The Braves' Javier Vazquez? Someone in another division, please? Who should the Nationals be pursuing?

Interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times-Part 2

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 14:00:12 -0000

Here is part 2 of the 4-part interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times:

Fake Teams: I see you are not a fan of FIP for evaluating starting pitchers and like LIPS instead. Where does one find the LIPS calculated? I haven't seen it published as widely as FIPS.

Derek Carty: Unfortunately, LIPS isn't available anywhere publically - not right now, anyway. It was published in HEATER Magazine this past season for their subscribers, and occasionally I'll post a leaderboard at THTF, but we don't currently have it on our stat pages. There is some good news on this front, though, for those looking for LIPS. There are preliminary plans in the works to sell a StatPack, of sorts, at THT Fantasy later this off-season. This StatPack will include scores of interesting data for fantasy owners to peruse and use for their draft preparations. I'm planning to include a lot of my homemade stats (some of which I'll discuss a bit later in this interview), LIPS, and a bunch of other goodies. I'm hoping this will be an invaluable tool for fantasy owners.

Back on topic, you're absolutely right about me: I am 100% opposed to FIP for fantasy analysis. I believe you're referring to this article that I wrote, but to summarize my stance, FIP uses a pitcher's actual HRs- a huge ‘no-no'. Analysis has found (not even all that recently) that a pitcher has very little control over his HR/FB rate. He does have a lot of control over how many balls get hit on the ground (which obviously can't become HRs), but once a ball is put in the air, the pitcher has relatively little control over whether it clears the fences for a HR. FIP doesn't account for this, making it extremely inaccurate for pitchers with abnormal HR/FB rates and merely somewhat inaccurate for everyone else. While I understand LIPS isn't readily available right now, xFIP is, and this at least adjusts for HR/FB, if not for everything that LIPS does. Baseball Prospectus's QERA is also a solid choice. I can't help but cringe every time I see a statistically-inclined site mention FIP in regard to predicting future performance or in discussing luck. There's nothing unlucky about a pitcher with a 5.00 ERA and a 4.00 FIP if his HR/FB is 4%.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: Recently I have written a few articles on what stats help one to predict wins for a starting pitcher, and realized there really is not one single stat that does it. What stats do you look at when targeting starting pitchers?

Derek Carty: To be completely honest with you, I ignore Wins entirely. They are so riddled with noise that I don't bother with them at all. They don't even get a glance from me. If I'm looking to gauge a pitcher's win potential, I'll check out an expected Win stat I've whipped up, comprised mostly of the skills of the pitcher and the quality of his offense. As far as his skills go, strikeout rate, walk rate, and groundball rate are the three biggies. They are under the pitcher's control much more than other stats are. This probably isn't big news to your readers, however, who I imagine are pretty familiar with DIPS Theory (if not, feel free to shoot me an e-mail. I'd be happy to discuss).

As I said earlier, though, I'm not always content with sticking to what's available - sometimes I like to take things a step or two further. Last year, I did this for pitchers with the ‘creation', if you will, of CAPS (Context Adjusted Pitching Statistics). CAPS still focuses on defense-independent stats like Ks, BBs, and GBs, but it seeks to remove even more noise from the equation - from the peripheral stats themselves. For example, a pitcher facing a disproportionate amount of Adam Dunn-type hitters will strikeout and walk a disproportionate number of batters and allow too many flyballs and home runs. Because the act of facing these kinds of batters isn't a skill of the pitcher's, we should adjust for it. After all, his mix of batters going forward is likely to be randomized, not marred with 3TO hitters like Dunn. Last off-season, I rigged up CAPS to adjust for home ballpark, mix of road ballparks, quality of opposition, and league changes. CAPS totally nailed Javier Vazquez - who was critical to my LABR strategy and success - among a few others, and I believe the logic and reasoning behind it is quite sound. Without divulging too much, this off-season I plan on bringing several more context adjustments into the mix as well as creating a CAPS of sorts for hitters (CABS, I suppose it'll be called). I'm currently in the research process now for some of these adjustments and am very excited for what CAPS could end up turning up.

Finally, I'll occasionally mix in a few somewhat subjective feelings based upon PITCHf/x data. If I really like the pitches a guy is throwing or something else the about the data, I might put a little asterisk next to his name on my sheet, even if he hasn't totally proven himself yet. Call him a sleeper or an upside pick or whatever you wish, but that's the general idea. Max Scherzer was a guy I really liked this year despite his lack of a real track record. I particularly loved the change-up he throws. Zack Greinke was another - four good pitches and a fantastic slider. Until we can really build some predictive models out of PITCHf/x, though, this kind of thing will be merely supplementary to the hard numbers, at least for me.