SB Nation - Javier Vazquez

2009 SBNation Awards: Cy Young Award

Al — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:00:29 -0000

by Jeff Chiu - AP

Someday, Tim Lincecum will look older than 15. For now, he has to settle for Cy Young Awards.

For the Cy Young Award, Mike & I agreed on our ballots right down the line -- and neither of us voted for the SBN winner, Tim Lincecum, who got 18 first-place votes. Carpenter and Wainwright appeared to split the Cardinal vote down the middle, so neither could win. No Cubs received any votes; none was expected to.

The AL voting was more predictable; you might only be surprised by the order of the runners-up.

BCB ballots:

Al: 1) Carpenter 2) Lincecum 3) Wainwright   
Mike: 1) Carpenter 2) Lincecum 3) Wainwright

National League

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	18	13	-	129
2	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	9	4	7	64
3	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	4	4	10	42
4	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	5	7	22
5	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	3	4	13
6	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	1	1	4
7	Cliff Lee	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	1	1
8	Jair Jurrjens	Atlanta Braves	-	-	1	1

American League

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Zack Greinke	Kansas City Royals	28	1	-	143
2	Felix Hernandez	Seattle Mariners	-	17	6	57
3	Justin Verlander	Detroit Tigers	-	8	9	33
4	Roy Halladay	Toronto Blue Jays	1	2	11	22
5	CC Sabathia	New York Yankees	-	1	2	5
6	Jon Lester	Boston Red Sox	-	-	1	1

SBN Awards: NL Cy Young

gondeee — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:53:03 -0000

Every year the bloggers and members of the SBN baseball blog community get together and do our own BWAA-style voting for all of the major awards. This year two Braves placed in the NL Cy Young voting, Javier Vazquez and Jair Jurrjens. Here is the voting breakdown:

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	18	13	-	129
2	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	9	4	7	64
3	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	4	4	10	42
4	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	5	7	22
5	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	3	4	13
6	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	1	1	4
7	Cliff Lee	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	1	1
8	Jair Jurrjens	Atlanta Braves	-	-	1	1

Here is how Javier Vazquez and Jair Jurrjens stack up against the top-3 vote getters:

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Tim Lincecum	15-7	32	32	4	2	0	0	225.1	168	69	62	10	68	261	2.48	1.05

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Chris Carpenter	17-4	28	28	3	1	0	0	192.2	156	49	48	7	38	144	2.24	1.01

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Adam Wainwright	19-8	34	34	1	0	0	0	233.0	216	75	68	17	66	212	2.63	1.21

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Javier Vazquez	15-10	32	32	3	0	0	0	219.1	181	75	70	20	44	238	2.87	1.03

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jair Jurrjens	14-10	34	34	0	0	0	0	215.0	186	71	62	15	75	152	2.60	1.21

This was a pretty close race, and any of these guys could have a case for being the Cy Young.

Braves Monday Odds and Ends

gondeee — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 21:37:22 -0000

Several things popping up on this Monday in the world of the Atlanta Braves

First... There are several people planning on attending Brian McCann's Celebrity Softball Game this Friday, November 13th at Georgia Tech. It's for a great cause, and we'll get a little bit of a Braves baseball fix here in the middle of the winter. For details and to purchase tickets go here. Respond in the comments if you plan on going. Oh, and I just read that the Varisty will be selling food and drink... as if we needed a reason to go, hello, Varsity and baseball (softball, really) in one stop. (Perhaps the Braves will take note and put a Varsity at Turner Field next year.)

Second... The Elias rankings came out today and there were no surprises for the Braves. We have four free agents eligible for draft pick compensation were they to be offered arbitration by the Braves but sign elsewhere. Relievers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez are type-A free agents (meaning we would get a first round and supplemental first round pick), and Adam LaRoche and Garret Anderson are type-B free agents (meaning we would get a supplemental first round pick).

Third... David O'Brien of the AJC is now on Twitter, and he has this nugget from the GM Meetings (which started today):

I'm hearing the Braves have discussed trying to sign Javier Vazquez to a contract extension. Not sure if that's gotten anywhere yet or will.

And only this morning Buster Olney was saying we would trade him. Gonna be one of those winters...

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

gondeee — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:25:20 -0000

Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on November 8th:

In the Press...

Baseball America released their top-10 Braves prospects for 2010.
SI.com reported that the Braves might make a play for Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman, but then Frank Wren shot down that rumor.
Talking Chop was one of the first to report that the Braves signed reliever Scott Proctor to a very affordable minor league contract.
Tim Hudson says his contract extension is essentially done, but we are still waiting on the MRI result on his right elbow before the Braves officially announce the deal.
Four Braves players filed for free agency.
Mike Minor got roughed up big-time in his start in the AFL Rising Stars game.
The blog, Stadium Journey, reviewed their visit to Turner Field.

At Talking Chop...

The Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence continued to rise this off-season.
We reviewed the 2009 seasons of the Braves starting pitchers, Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, and Kenshin Kawakami.
Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg was named the Topps Appy League Player of the Year.
I asked if J.J. Putz could be an option at closer for next year.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

jmorris811 shared a bunch of his Braves photos with us.
ryan c thinks Chipper Jones should be moved into the number-2 spot in the batting order.
arnec reprints a nice story about Ralph Garr and the Richmond Braves.
rbravesfan shares some pictures of the Rome Braves.
justincredubil02 cannot bring himself to believe that the Braves would trade Javier Vazquez.
mvhsball takes issue with columnist Mark Bradley's suggestion to make Tommy Hanson a closer.
PWHjort passes along a comment about Mike Minor from BA's Jim Callis.

Upcoming Events...

The first ever Brian McCann Celebrity Softball Game is set for November 13th... details here. We're making this a bit of a Talking Chop outing, so everyone get your tickets!
The Gwinnett Braves have a whole slate of off-season events planned at their ballpark, the list is here.

MLB Trade Rumors: On the Beat with John Perrotto Version

raygu — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:00:37 -0000

by Eric Risberg - AP

about 1 month ago: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Chad Billingsley takes a break on the mound after the San Francisco Giants scored their third run in the fourth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009. San Francisco won the game 7-2; Billingsley was the losing pitcher. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

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Every Sunday, John Perrotto from Baseball Prospectus puts out an article talking about possible trade rumors and signings, along with analysis of the goings on around baseball. Yesterday's article was chock full of names who could be available in trade talks this offseason, with some suprise names.

Let's take a look after the jump:

Here is a list of names who could be available in trade talks per Perrotto:

Chad Billingsley Kerry Wood

Dave Bush Bobby Jenks

Jeremy Guthrie Pat Burrell

Adrian Gonzalez Nelson Cruz

Heath Bell Ryan Ludwick

Glen Perkins Dan Uggla

Kenshin Kawakami Juan Pierre

Derek Lowe Ryan Doumit

Javier Vazquez Dioner Navarro

Carlos Zambrano Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Matt Capps Geovany Soto

Christian Guzman Elijah Dukes

Corey Hart David Dejesus

Poll

What name on the Perrotto list is most surprising?

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Tommy Hanson

cbwilk — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:15:19 -0000

After dominating the Arizona Fall League in 2008, becoming the first pitcher in the league's history to win the MVP award, Thomas J. Hanson continued to excel in the Atlanta Braves' 2009 Spring Training, with a win and no losses in 5 games (3 starts), while striking out 18 in 17.2 innings. The Braves felt he needed more seasoning though, and optioned him to AAA Gwinnett, where he was dominant, as well with 3 wins and 3 losses in 11 starts, compiling a 1.49 ERA, 1.046 WHIP and 90 strikeouts in 66.1 innings, good for 12.2 per 9 innings.

Tom Glavine was supposed to be the Braves' fifth starter in 2009, but nagging injuries prevented him from ever pitching for Atlanta this season, and the Braves legend and future Hall of Famer was released June 3rd, just as he was, according to him, ready to assume his role in the Braves rotation. This highly unpopular move coincided with Hanson's additon to the roster, just two days later, and it turned out to be one of Frank Wren's most savvy decisions of the season.

Hanson came out of the gate pitching like an ace, collecting 4 wins in his 5 June starts, with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP while striking out 18 in 29 innings. While he had a losing record in July, 1-2, and his ERA jumped over a run, to 3.94, his strikeout rate increased, from 5.6 per 9 innings to 6.5 and his walks dramatically decreased, from 17 in 29 innings to just 9 in 32 innings, leading to a drop in his WHIP, down to 1.25. These trends continued over the rest of his season, with his ERA dipping back below 3 for August and September as well, leading to a final line that saw him win 11 games, lose 4, compile an ERA of 2.89, a WHIP of 1.18, along with 116 strikeouts in 127.2 innings.

In all, it was a stellar rookie season for Hanson, one which should garner him attention in National League Rookie of the Year voting, if not the award itself. On his own team, he had the third lowest ERA among the regular starters, just behind Javy Vazquez's 2.87 ERA, as well as the third most innings per start, at just over 6 per, behind Vazquez and Jair Jurrjens. Hanson had the second lowest WHIP of the starters, just behind Vazquez, tied with Vazquez for the fewest hits per 9 innings allowed, 7.4, and was second, behind Vazquez, in strikeouts per 9 innings, 8.2, and strikeouts per walk, 2.52.

Hanson showed improvement in each of his 4 Minor League seasons, including his most dominant performance in the early part of this season with Gwinnett. His ability to step seamlessly into Atlanta's rotation as a 22 year old and improve throughout the year indicate that he is well on his way to becoming one of the better pitchers in the National Leauge. While there are many hurdles for him to overcome on that quest, including allowing fewer hits and walks, while striking out more batters, he'll enter 2010 as a 23 year old, firmly entrenched in the Atlanta rotation, and just beginning to show his seemingly limitless ability.

Cubs' Ted Lilly undergoes shoulder surgery

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 02:19:46 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

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Bad News Cubs.

Bruce Miles of the Arlington Heights Daily Herald is reporting that Cubs pitcher Ted Lilly underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery yesterday and could miss the start of the regular season. Lilly, who has been the Cubs' most reliable starter in recent years, says he hopes to start throwing in four months.

"The idea is maybe to start throwing in four months or so," he said. "A lot of that is going to be dictated on just how the rehab goes. That can change one way or another. My intention is to get back as soon as I can without setting myself back."

Since signing with the Cubs, Lilly has gone 44-26 with a 3.67 ERA. Entering a contract year in 2010, you can bet that Lilly wants to get back to the mound as soon as possible.

How will this impact the Cubs' moves this offseason?

The Cubs are not expected to bring back Rich Harden, meaning a spot will open up in the rotation. Currently, the rotation will look something like this: Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, and either Tom Gorzelanny or Jeff Samardzija.

With Lilly out, it seems even more imperative that the Cubs bring in a veteran arm to give the Cubs some stability at the back-end of their rotation. Free agent pitcher Randy Wolf could be an option for that role.

Other options include Javier Vazquez of the Braves through a trade, or free agents Justin Duchscherer, Brett Myers, or Joel Piniero.

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Javier Vázquez

royhobbs — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:30:28 -0000

Javier Vazquez wasn't just the best pitcher on the Braves, but he was one of the best pitchers in all of Major League Baseball, in 2009.

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Quick, name the only starting pitcher in the NL East who never once pitched under five innings per start, over 30+ starts and 200+ innings, in 2009?

Overall, Javier Vazquez is one of five total pitchers in all of Major League Baseball (Grienke, Haren, Shields, Wainwright) to achieve this feat. Regardless of the wins and losses, there's something to be said about a pitcher who comes out consistently, does his job, and does it well. Really well.

I'm going to go out on a short limb here, and declare Javier Vazquez the Ace of the already outstanding Braves pitching staff. Now the definition of what an ace is, is often under debate, but in general, most people can agree on the following criteria:

Starts a lot of games
Wins a lot of games
Eats a lot of innings
Good ERA
Stops the bleeding
Doesn't walk a lot of guys
Strikeouts preferable

All this considered, Javier Vazquez accomplished the following:

32 starts is second on the team, behind the 34 starts made by both Derek Lowe and Jair Jurrjens.
15 wins is tied with Derek Lowe for most wins on the team.
His 219.2 innings pitched is the best on the Braves, best in the entire NL East, 4th best in the National League, and 11th best in all of baseball.
Vazquez's stellar 2.89 ERA is second, behind Jair Jurrjens's even more stingy 2.60 ERA.
Javier Vazquez made 17 starts in 2009, following a Braves loss. The Braves went 12-5 in those games, and 8-0 in their last eight Javy starts following a loss.
44 walks makes Javier Vazquez the most efficient pitcher on the staff; he walked fewer than even Tommy Hanson in 90 more innings and 11 more starts. Only four other pitchers in the 200-innings-pitched club, ML-wide walked fewer guys than Vazquez did. His 1.81 walks-per-nine is third best in all of baseball.
238 strikeouts makes Javy the best punch-out artist on the team, as well as the NL East, second best in all of the National League, and fourth best in all of baseball. He also sported a fancy 9.77 strikeouts-per-nine, which was third best in the National League, and fifth overall in the Majors.
Javier Vazquez pitched three complete games this season alone, which is as many as the Braves had in 2007 and 2008 combined. Yes, one of them was an eight-inning complete game loss, but so was Jorge Campillo's in 2008.
And just to throw this out there, Javy led the majors with 20 sacrifice bunts.

So the bottom line is that Javier Vazquez wasn't just the best pitcher on the Braves in 2009, but he was most certainly one of the best pitchers in all of Major League Baseball. The National League Cy Young will in all likelihood go to Tim Lincecum again, or maybe even Adam Wainwright, or Chris Carpenter, but I'll be grossly disappointed if Javy doesn't receive some Cy Young consideration himself. In the three Triple Crown categories that the BBWAA weighs heavily, when making their choices, Javier Vazquez is T-4th in wins, 6th in ERA, and 2nd in strikeouts.

I'm sure you're all aware of the negative stigma attached to Javy, about being not being able to hold up under the pressure of a critical game, and he certainly didn't help his cause with his final start of 2009, and I know baseball is no exception to the "what have you done for me lately" mentality that many sports fans harbor, and that pitchers are only as good as their last performance, but what a lot of people need to realize is that without Javier Vazquez, the Braves might never have been in a situation where there were critical games to be played. The four starts prior to his final, Javy pitched brilliantly, tossing 32 masterful innings, notching both his complete game victories, and allowing a paltry three earned runs. In a stretch where the Braves needed every victory to remain alive in the playoff hunt, who says Javier Vazquez couldn't handle pressure?

Honestly, there's not a whole lot much to ask for from Javier Vazquez, going into 2010. He's going to make a lot of starts, strike out a lot of guys, and eat a lot of innings - stuff we all knew he was capable in 2009 before he even threw a pitch with the Braves. Win more games? Take that request up with the offense, whom in Javy's ten losses, contributed a meager average of 1.3 runs of support in his losing starts.

Maybe, we could ask for him to sign some sort of extention to stay in Atlanta? As it stands right now, he's entering the final year of a three-year deal that sees him making $11,500,000 in 2010, which is an incredibly fair cost for a pitcher of Javy's caliber. Obviously, this much bang for the buck has not gone unnoticed by the baseball world, as Vazquez has been the topic of many a fantasy trade, that sees the Braves dealing their current ace pitcher, due to the luxury surplus of quality starting pitching in their current staff, for a potential package of prospects and/or the mythical "big bat" that will assist the Braves back into the glory days. All I'm saying is that I'd prefer to keep Vazquez through 2010, and potentially beyond, but I wouldn't be the least bit opposed to keep my ears peeled and entertain some offers to hear what's up.

Would it be possible to sign Javy to some sort of extension? Possibly. He has made statements expressing desire to stay in Atlanta, and many bring up the idea that he is opposed to going out to the west coast again, thus limiting the number of teams he could go to down a bit. But one thing to think about is how much of the Braves' money do you want tied up in starting pitching alone? Say the Braves extend Vazquez, but aren't capable of moving any of their starting pitchers - Derek Lowe is on the books for three more years, Kenshin Kawakami for two more, and if the supposed rumors come true, Tim Hudson for three. In 2011, Jair Jurrjens is eligible for arbitration. It goes without saying that in order to extend Vazquez, someone will have to be moved in order to have a chance of keeping the finances under somewhat control. Unless Liberty Media decides to actually open up the books a bit, which I'm sure is not going to happen.

So for better or worse, we're just going to have to assume that Javier Vazquez is going to be suiting up for the Braves come the start of the 2010 season. I expect more of the same from 2009, but there also stands the possibility that the "honeymoon period" of moving back to the NL after a long tenure in the AL helped his numbers, which I don't necessarily agree with fully, because he should have gotten worse as the year progressed, not better, like Javy's did. Either way, I'm looking forward to seeing more Javier Vazquez in 2010, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility that he might just be the Opening Day starter, for the Atlanta Braves.

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Derek Lowe

gondeee — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:50:43 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

Atlanta Braves' Derek Lowe was actually not as bad in 2009 as his overall stats say he was.

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Did Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Derek Lowe really have this bad of a year? Is he really this bad of a pitcher? After all he posted an ERA almost a run higher than his career average, and he led the league in hits allowed, and he didn't even get to that vaunted 200 innings pitched plateau that was part of the reason we signed him.

I started out thinking this writeup would just be several paragraphs of me trashing Lowe, but then I looked deeper and thought about his 2009 performance in a different way.

His ERA was a robust 4.67, but his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was substantially lower at 4.06. This is not all that surprising for a ground ball pitcher, but it is a big gap. He also posted a batting average against of .301 -- the highest in his career, and part of why he led the league in hits allowed -- but that could have been helped by a high BABIP of .333. These are both similar numbers to what he put up during his last year in Boston, 2004. That year he had a .299 BAA and a .331 BABIP, which caused his ERA to jump up to an even uglier number (5.42) than last year.

We can only infer that these numbers are not the norm for Derek Lowe. His career numbers, even with these outliers factored in are that of a .262 BAA and a .295 BABIP, to go with a 3.84 ERA and a 3.79 FIP. These are much closer to what he did during the last four years in Los Angeles, and closer to the type of pitcher that we believe we actually got when we signed him to a 4-year contract at $15 mil a pop.

This reminds me of Tim Hudson's second year in Atlanta, where his numbers were just a little out of whack and no one, not even Tim, could point to why. I'd like to believe that Lowe just had a bad year, or several bad games that caused his numbers to be skewed away from what they normally would be.

When you look at his month-by-month stats he had three really good months that were in-line with or better than his career numbers, and three months where the numbers look absolutely horrible. Each of those horrible months the poor totals can be attributed to one or two really bad games,in which he gave up a significant amount of runs, but in the other games those months he continued to pitch well until the final month of the season. Here are some of his month-by-month starts for 2009 with quality starts highlighted:

Month	Quality Starts	Total Starts	ERA
April	3	5	3.10
May	5	6	3.76
June	4	6	6.54
July	4	5	3.38
August	3	6	5.08
Sep/Oct	2	7	6.23

While Quality Starts may not be the best judge of a pitcher's actual ability, we can see from these numbers that even in the bad months Lowe was still pitching good games and getting wins. This is probably why it's hard to figure why Lowe's record was the same as Javier Vazquez' record when Javy had an ERA that was almost two runs less. In Javy's case it was a lot of bad luck, bad run support, and bad bullpen, but that luck can cut both ways. Even putting luck aside, Lowe was his typical self for the vast majority of his starts, it was just those handful of starts that crushed his overall numbers.

So don't get too down on Derek Lowe. We still have a very good pitcher, and if other teams are looking at these numbers, perhaps they too will find value in what Lowe can bring them. This also should help to ensure that no one will be too terribly crushed if the Braves don't trade Lowe this off-season. He still won 15 games, and there's a reason for that -- he was the pitcher we paid for in most of those games.

At the beginning of this piece I would never have thought I would end up defending the 2009 season of Derek Lowe, but there you have it.

11/3 - More Front Office Work

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 10:15:13 -0000

We've been in Hot Stove mode for a while now, and there's no reason to stop now.

Trade Market: Third Basemen - MLBTradeRumors.com

Trade Market: Left Fielders - MLBTradeRumors.com

Anyone stand out as viable option? Well, some people have everything figured out for us, so we don't even have to worry ourselves with the issue:

Time To Change Their Ways: Signing Bay Needs To Be a Red Sox Priority - Bleacher Report

There are no equivalent alternatives. It’s Bay or Matt Holliday (yikes) or some one-year stopgap in left. Or it’s trading a handful of prospects to find a player who best compares with a player you already have. The options aren’t exactly appealing.

Had to read through half the article to find the money quote: Anyone who is scared of Holliday, please try to convince OTHER teams of this.

Overpaying Orlando Cabrera Could Be Dangerous Risk For Red Sox - NESN.com

And if the Red Sox are willing to grant second chances to Gonzalez, who seemed to be past his prime and had found little success in the American League, why wouldn't they grant the same courtesy to Orlando Cabrera?

Because that makes no sense? It's a "dangerous risk" because we'd be playing a crappy SS, one who would be overpaid for pretty much any price he demands.

Now here's a decent idea:

Building a Package for Javier Vazquez - Yawkey Way Academy

Now we just have to 1) convince most Sox fans that it would be a good trade, and 2) figure out who we'd give up for him.

After the jump, Fielding Bible awards released, more decade wrap-up stuff, a preview for next season, and concerns about parity.

Red Sox come up empty in Fielding Bible Awards - Full Count

Fielding Bible's site isn't in love with the SB Nation interface, so I'll indirectly link y'all. Oddly, Hill was below average by UZR. Hmm...

Team of the Decade? - Fenway West

All-Aughts Team of the Decade SS: Nomar Garciaparra - Fire Brand of the American League

How DARE they forget Jed! [joke]

Inbox: Will Varitek be back next season? - redsox.com: News

Lazy fans who can't research stuff for themselves, asking a beat reporter for anwsers, and then likely never checking for answers. Such a weird process.

Dark Days Ahead, Sox Fans - Sox vs. Stripes

Take it away, guys. Consider this the anxiety venting link.

Bill Reynolds: Major League Baseball’s lack of parity gets to me - The Providence Journal

But somewhere along the way the inequity of Major League Baseball, the decided sense that to the victor belongs the spoils and everyone else eats cake, has gotten to me.

Not the best argument being made here. Anyone want to try to improve on this, or to destroy the argument instead?

Links, comments, support for Pedro over Petitte, etc.