SB Nation - Nick Masset

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 4: Pitching

JinAZ — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:14:43 -0000

To recap thus far, 2009 saw the offense drop considerably, the fielding improve dramatically, with a net effect being that the 2009 position players were probably at least as good, if not slightly better than the 2008 Reds squad of position players.

What about the 2009 pitchers? Since the fate of a pitcher in the boxscore is directly tied to the fielders playing behind him, we need to adjust for fielders. Here are three ways of doing that, and how the last several years of Reds pitchers have fared using each approach:

Here's what is shown above:

UZR-adj Runs Allowed is straight-up runs allowed (park adjusted), with UZR-based team fielding factored out. For example, this year, UZR rates the Reds as a +53 fielding team. So, I added 53 runs to the runs allowed total to "simulate" what would have happened with an average-fielding team.
FIP-based runs allowed uses team FIP to estimate runs allowed per game, and then extrapolates to the full season. FIP stands for "fielding independent runs," and uses K, BB, HBP, and HR rates to estimate runs allowed independent of a teams' fielders or context. I park-adjusted K, BB, HBP, and HR rates.
tRA-based runs allowed is straight-up pRAA from statcorner, summed for starters and relievers. It is based on tRA, which is billed as a sort of "FIP on steroids." It uses K, BB, and all batted ball rates (LD, FB, GB, HR/FB, all park adjusted) to estimate runs allowed in a manner that again should be independent of fielders or context. I am unclear if pRAA is based on tRA or tRA* (tRA* is the regressed version).

As you can see, the UZR-adjusted number is more volatile, which makes sense given that it's based on actual runs allowed and thus is subject to all kinds of "luck" (not to mention the volatility of a fielding stat!). The FIP and tRA stats, on the other hand, basically parallel each other, with pRAA being consistently more negative about the team than FIP. These two stats do largely the same thing (though with somewhat different input data and methods), and in my experience are usually within spitting distance of each other. So while I'm not surprised to see them running parallel, I am surprised to see such a large quantitative difference between them in RAA. It seems to me, at least over the last four years, that the "real" data (UZR-adjusted runs allowed) have more closely matched FIP, which makes me more inclined to believe FIP. Maybe pRAA is using the wrong baseline (I'm comparing to all NL pitchers), or is more severe in its park adjustments? (fwiw, while I still like tRA, I am much less enamored with it--and much less ready to ditch FIP--than I was, say, 6 months ago. This is just the latest reason).

Anyway, looking at each line individually, you can see that all three statistics point to the same thing: pitching fell off a bit this year. And, if you look at just the FIP or tRA lines, it was in its worst state since Bronson Arroyo's arrival in 2006. What happened? Obviously, the Volquez injury was huge. But that's not the only story here. Player by player breakdowns below the jump.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.

Name	IP	pLI	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	GB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WARra	WARfip	WARhit	WAR
Aaron Harang	162.3	0.9	7.9	2.4	1.3	12%	35%	0.339	4.21	3.96	2.5	2.7	0.0	2.7
Bronson Arroyo	220.3	1.0	5.2	2.7	1.3	12%	45%	0.270	3.84	4.63	4.5	2.0	-0.2	1.7
Johnny Cueto	171.3	0.9	6.9	3.2	1.3	11%	42%	0.296	4.41	4.63	2.3	1.5	0.1	1.6
Francisco Cordero	66.7	1.9	7.8	4.1	0.3	3%	41%	0.301	2.16	3.10	2.8	1.6	0.0	1.6
Nick Masset	76.0	1.1	8.3	2.8	0.7	10%	54%	0.250	2.37	3.25	2.4	1.2	0.0	1.2
Arthur Rhodes	53.3	1.5	8.1	3.4	0.5	5%	41%	0.249	2.53	3.10	2.0	1.1	0.0	1.1
Homer Bailey	113.3	1.0	6.8	4.1	1.0	9%	43%	0.306	4.53	4.38	1.4	1.3	-0.3	1.0
Micah Owings	119.7	1.0	5.1	4.8	1.4	11%	37%	0.286	5.34	5.53	0.4	-0.1	1.1	1.0
Jared Burton	59.3	0.9	6.8	3.5	0.8	6%	43%	0.314	4.40	3.75	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.5
Daniel Ray Herrera	61.7	0.8	6.4	3.5	0.7	9%	50%	0.309	3.06	3.91	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.5
Josh Roenicke	13.3	0.2	9.5	2.7	0.0	0%	47%	0.355	2.70	2.03	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.4
Matt Maloney	40.7	0.9	6.2	1.8	2.0	13%	34%	0.282	4.87	5.16	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.3
Carlos Fisher	52.3	0.5	8.3	5.3	0.7	7%	44%	0.316	4.47	4.02	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3
Paul Janish	2.0	0.0	13.5	9.0	9.0	50%	50%	0.726	49.50	14.99	-0.1	-0.1	0.3	0.2
Edinson Volquez	49.7	1.1	8.5	5.8	1.1	14%	45%	0.231	4.35	4.99	0.8	0.3	-0.2	0.1
Robert Manuel	4.3	0.2	4.2	2.1	0.0	0%	33%	0.329	0.00	2.97	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1
Kip Wells	46.3	0.9	4.9	4.3	1.0	11%	49%	0.232	4.66	5.15	0.6	0.1	-0.1	0.0
Ramon Ramirez	12.3	0.6	5.8	2.9	1.5	11%	37%	0.183	3.65	5.03	0.2	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Pedro Viola	7.0	0.4	6.4	3.9	2.6	18%	38%	0.253	5.14	6.43	0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
David Weathers	38.0	1.6	6.4	4.0	1.7	15%	43%	0.200	3.32	5.23	1.0	-0.3	0.0	-0.3
Justin Lehr	65.3	0.9	4.6	3.9	1.9	16%	40%	0.277	5.37	6.09	0.4	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4
Mike Lincoln	23.0	0.7	3.5	7.4	2.7	23%	44%	0.283	8.22	8.75	-0.6	-0.7	0.0	-0.7

Notes on table: pLI is an indication of the leverage of the situations in which a pitcher pitched. pLI = 1 on average, pLI=2 when situations are twice as influential on game outcome as usual, pLI=0.5 when situations are half as influential on game outcome as usual. FIP is Fielding Independent Runs, with park adjustments for each coefficient (see above). WARra is Wins Above Replacement based on actual runs charged to a pitcher (park adjusted). It is calculated following Tango's methods, including the leverage adjustment. WARfip is WAR based on FIP. WARhit is an overall hitting assessment, which will be different from the last post because I discovered I was using much too low of a position adjustment for pitchers (sorry!). WAR is the sum of WARfip and WARhit.

Bronson Arroyo had the best season of the group based on traditional stats, and is our official 2009 Reds Pitcher of the Year. Clearly, he's the only one who topped 200 innings, and that has a lot of value in and of itself. Harang, in contrast, seemingly had another sub-par season, at least by his standards. This was especially true with respect to durability: thanks to his appendix, he only reached 162 innings this season, his lowest total since 2004.

But as Slyde showed recently, the major driving factor behind the differences in these two pitchers was actually some combination of fielding and luck: Harang's batted balls became hits 34% of the time compared to just 27% with Arroyo. In fact, if you look at his peripherals, Harang had a better strikeout rate (by a lot), a better walk rate, and an equivalent home run allowed rate (with identical HR/F rates) to Arroyo. Based on this, and despite his much lower innings total, Harang comes in as the more valuable pitcher this year...by a full win...over Arroyo!

I'm actually a bit concerned about Arroyo. His strikeout rate dropped considerably this year. Although he was improved in the second half, my pet belief is that Arroyo's success depends largely on his strikeout rate. Then again, he's shown large fluctuations in strikeout rate in the past, so hopefully this is just a blip. The Reds need him to be a 2-win pitcher next year if they're going to do anything.

Johnny Cueto had by most accounts a very successful season. He started strong, but seemed to taper off as the season wore on, perhaps due to workload: he pitched in both winterball and the WBC last winter, which is far too many innings for my comfort. I'd like to see him get back into the 8+ k/9 range where he was in 2008--if he does, he could be a force.

Homer Bailey had a heck of a turnaround season. Citing some changes in his delivery that occurred during the offseason, Bailey started slow, but then something seemed to just "click." The result was a tremendously successful final few months of the season. I still don't know if what we saw was real or not, but I sure hope it was. Given his playing time, he probably has the biggest error bars around his projection of any pitcher on this team, and perhaps across the entire league.

Micah Owings has probably the most interesting row on the list. As a pitcher, he wasn't very impressive. Low strikeout rate, VERY high walk rate, and low ground ball rates do not tend to lead to success. But the amazing thing is that he was able to couple that replacement-level pitching performance with hitting that clocks in right at league average. The result? A 1 WAR pitcher. You can do worse from your #5 starter. Or long reliever/pinch hitter. Whatever he is these days. Fascinating player.

Speaking of the bullpen, it sure looked excellent this year. Cordero, Rhodes, and the revelational Nick Masset combined for sub-3 ERA's and low-3 FIP's. Jared Burton (FIP 3.75), Danny Herrera (seems like the screwball works, at least on lefties), and Carlos Fisher (scary walks) also performed adequately in middle relief. If Bill Bray comes back strong following Tommy John, this could be a great young relief core moving forward. Well, minus Rhodes, because he's old.

Speaking of old, Cordero's line looks a little shaky from where I sit. His strikeout rate has gone from 12 k/9 in 2007 to 10 k/9 in 2008 to 8 k/9 in 2009. His walk rate was about where it is supposed to be, but his home run rate is artificially low, thanks to an extremely lucky HR per Fly Ball rate of 3%. I don't know if it's related, but he threw a lot more fastballs this year than last (63% vs. ~50% in prior seasons)...maybe the slider wasn't working as well as it used to? The Reds owe him two more seasons at $12M per year.

Overall, this wasn't a terrible pitching staff. But it also wasn't a pitching staff that featured any fantastic individual performances. And the rotation wasn't as strong as it has been in recent years, especially with injuries to Edinson Volquez and Harang. Volquez apparently thinks he will be back mid-next season, which could be a nice shot in the arm if the team is able to do anything with the first half. We'll see.

...

Wrap up and looking forward: So, that's your 2009 Reds. Fun in April and September, utterly forgettable in between. I don't know where this team is going, honestly. There are some good parts here. There are solid, steady contributers in Votto, Rolen, Phillips, Harang, and Arroyo. And there is youth with some nice upside in Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Stubbs, and Volquez (when he returns). And there's more help on the way in Frazier, Alonso, and Leake. But it's also a team that is seeing some key players, especially pitchers, start to show signs of aging.

Given this, I wonder if 2010 is the year with the best window for success? And if so, can the cash-strapped Reds do what they need to do--plugging holes, mostly--to put themselves in a position to take advantage of some good fortune if it arrives?

I'm gonna keep on loving you, Arroyo Speedwagon. Reds win, 6-1.

Brendanukkah — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 04:20:27 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Graynd Slaym. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Laynce Nix. The Daynce Mix hit his first career grand slam to lead the Reds over the Cardinals.

Key Plays

Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce led off the second inning with walks, and RBI man Ryan Hanigan hit a single to score Rolen. Bronson Arroyo then singled to load the bases, and Drew Stubbs also drew a walk to force in Bruce. Reds 2, Cardinals 0.
The walks continued to haunt in the third inning. Brandon Phillips walked, Rolen doubled, and Bruce walked again. Up stepped Laynce Nix and bye bye baseball. Grand slam! Reds 6, Cardinals 0.
Nix was still feeling swell after his homer, and let Skip Schumaker's ball fall under his glove for a double. Albert Pujols then drove him in with a single. Reds 6, Cardinals 1.
Bronson left the game with one out in the ninth, after having walked Troy Glaus. Nick Masset came in and gave up a single to Pujols, a fielder's choice to Matt Holliday, and a walk to Colby Rasmus, before striking out Ryan Ludwick with the bases loaded. REDS WINNARS!

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

The Reds can do no worse than split the season series with the Cardinals. A win tomorrow gives them a 9-7 advantage.
The Reds went 18-9 in September, the only month in which they did not have double digit losses. Four of those losses were to Colorado, and five of those losses were by only one run.
John Smoltz complained that the game balls had not been properly rubbed with mud. Obviously it didn't seem to affect Arroyo, but Bronson did share this interesting nugget: "They don't mud them up as much here as they do at other places. It was a cool night, and it's hard to hold on sometimes." Could a mudding deficiency help explain some of our historically lackluster pitching?
Who says Dusty Baker ruins arms? Listen to why he pulled Arroyo with one out in the ninth: "He said he was running on empty and his legs were spent," Baker said. "When I heard that, you go get him, especially late in the season, 111 pitches and Pujols up there."
Joey Votto and Paul Janish both hit doubles. It was Votto's 16th double in September and Janish's tenth (out of 37 and 20 on the year, respectively).
Arroyo won 15 games for the second year in a row. He hasn't given up more than three runs in a game since July 22.
The Brewers lost, so the Reds are only one game out of third place.

Final - 9.30.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
St. Louis Cardinals	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	0	X	6	8	0
WP: Bronson Arroyo (15 - 13) LP: John Smoltz (1 - 3)

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We love you, Patrick! "Ditto." Reds win, 3-1.

Brendanukkah — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 03:07:51 -0000

via fullofsmoke.com

Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Patrick Swayze. Finally, Heaven's Chippendales roster is complete. Also, Jay Bruce had the game winning hit in his return to Cincinnati.

Key Plays

There was a distinct lack of offense in this game. Both teams were scoreless until Houston broke through in the sixth inning. Then, with two outs, traditional Reds killers Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee singled and double respectively. Berkman scored and the Astros were winning 1-0.
The Reds staged their comeback in the seventh inning. Scott Rolen walked to lead off the frame, and Jonny Gomes hit a double to put runners on second and third. Juan Francisco then came up to bat for Darnell McDonald. El Nino Destructor's major league debut ended in a strikeout, but still, an exciting moment. Pinch hitter Kevin Barker was intentionally walked to load the bases, and then pinch hitter Jay Bruce - as foretold by jch - hit a single to right field that scored Rolen and Gomes. Reds on top, 2-1.
Brandon Phillips added a Great American Insurance run in the eighth inning with his 20th home run of the year.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

Bronson Arroyo now has a winning record, joining Edinson Volquez and Justin Lehr as the only starters better than .500. Nick Masset is the only other pitcher on the roster with a winning record.
Francisco Cordero's 35th save beats his total from last year. It's been said again and again, but it's really impressive that So-So Cordero has not made any noteable appearances this season.
Once again, El Nino Destructor's major league debut everybody!
As Dude Rock and Slyde are quick to point out, Arroyo has a 2.11 ERA over his last 13 starts.
Patrick Swayze had an appearance on M*A*S*H* back in 1981. Weird, huh?

Final - 9.14.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Houston Astros	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	7	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	X	3	7	0
WP: Bronson Arroyo (13 - 12) SV: Francisco Cordero (35) LP: Wandy Rodriguez (13 - 10)

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Just Like They Drew It Up. Reds Win 7-5 to Break 5-game Losing Streak.

Slyde — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 21:01:24 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

Yer a....GULP....mmmmmm.

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Drew Sutton. Sutton only saw three pitches all day, but that was enough as his 2-run pinch hit double in the 9th inning was the difference for the winning squad.

Key Plays

The story of the day today was base runners, as in the Reds had 21 of them when you add up the 10 hits, 8 walks, and 3 errors by the Cubs. Thankfully, they managed to get some hits today with runners on base, going 5 for 13 with runners in scoring position.

The Reds put their first two runs on the board due to the Cubs fielding incompetence. Three errors in the 3rd inning allowed the Reds to load up the bases and score a run before Brandon Phillips singled in a second run to put the team up 2-0.
The Reds added 3 more runs in the 4th inning after Adam Rosales and Drew Stubbs singles put runners at 1st and 3rd. Darnell McDonald followed with one of his two hits on the day to drive in Rosales. Joey Votto did the same to drive in Stubbs. Consecutive walks to Phillips and Scott Rolen put another run on the board and the Reds led 5-0.
While all of this was happening, Johnny Cueto was cruising right along, allowing just 1 hit and 2 walks through the first 5 innings. He ran into trouble in the 6th though, walking lead-off hitter Ryan Theriot and back-to-back singles Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, the latter scoring Theriot. Geovany Soto ended Cueto's day with a double that plated Lee and moved Ramirez to third base.
Daniel Ray Herrera relieved Cueto but allowed a sacrifice fly to score Ramirez and a walk and was replaced with Ramon Ramirez who induced a flyout from Jeff Baker to end the inning.
The Cubs rallied again in the 7th a walks to Kosuke Fukudome and Lee put runners on 1st and 2nd with one out. Nick Masset came to the game to face Aramis Ramirez who promptly singled to load the bases. Masset struck Milton Bradley out, but then gave up another double to Geovanny Soto. Both Fukudome and Lee scored, but a nice relay from Stubbs to Paul Janish to Corky Miller nailed Ramirez at the plate, preserving a 5-5 tie.
The 8th inning was quiet on both sides, and it looked like the Reds would stall out in the 9th as Rolen grounded into a double play after a Phillips single. However, 2-out walks to Jonny Gomes and Kevin Barker left the door open for Drew Sutton to be a hero, and Sutton didn't disappoint. His double into right field plated both runners and gave the Reds a 7-5 lead.
Francisco Cordero made quick work of the Cubs in the 9th, throwing just 9 pitches in a 1-2-3 inning.

via www.fangraphs.com

Other Notes

The win today still leaves open the possibility that the Reds could finish this road trip with a split. As bad as they played during the 5-game losing streak, a split would feel like a freaking miracle.
The Reds had 10 different players reach base via a hit or a walk.

Brandon Phillips Bruises Pirates With Home Run, Breaks Them With a Ground Out. Reds Win 5-3.

Slyde — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 19:36:21 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Corky, Lastings. Lastings, Corky.

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Brandon Phillips. For the second time in the last 3 games, Phillips takes home the honor. BP went 3 for 4 with 3 RBI, including a home run. Drew Stubbs (3 for 4, HR) and Homer Bailey (6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 8 K) are honorable mentions.

Key Plays

The Reds kicked off the scoring in the first inning after Joey Votto coaxed a walk and then moved to second on a balk by Zach Duke. Brandon Phillips followed that up with a single to score Votto, but Phillips was thrown out trying to take second base to end the inning.
The first batter in the second inning for the Pirates, Garrett Jones, homered to tie the game up at one.
Phillips put the Reds back out in front again with his 19th home run of the season in the fourth inning.
The first batter in the fifth inning for the Pirates, Brandon Moss, homered to tie the game up at two.
After striking out the first two batters, Homer Bailey gave up a double to Lastings Milledge and then another double to Ryan Doumit, giving the Pirates a 3-2 lead.
The first batter in the sixth inning for the Reds, Drew Stubbs, homered to tie the game up at three.
Paul Janish reached after Stubbs' homer on a fielding error by Neil Walker. Joey Votto followed with a ground-rule double, his first hit in 17 at bats, leaving runners at 2nd and 3rd. Phillips grounded out to second base, but it was enough to get Janish in from third. Darnell McDonald capped the scoring with a single to bring in Votto and the Reds led 5-3.
The Reds put a threat together in the 8th after Votto walked and BP singled, but Jonny Gomes grounded into a force out, McDonald struck out, and Kevin Barker popped out to end the threat.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

Homer Bailey came out to pitch the 7th inning despite already having 109 pitches on the day. He's thrown 114, 115, and 116 pitches in his last 3 starts.
Bailey is now a combined 13-9 between the minors and majors this season. This is one year after going 4-13 combined at both levels.
The bullpen trio of Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, and Francisco Cordero struck out 6 of the 9 batters they faced, allowing just one hit.
The offense has had double-digit hits 8 times in the last 11 games after doing it just one time in the previous 27 games.
They have also homered in 10 straight games. It's their longest streak of the season.
The Reds swept the Pirates in a 4-game series at home for the first time since 1975. The last time they swept them in 4 games in 1992, it was in Pittsburgh.
The Reds now have a 6.5 game lead on the Pirates.

If you're going to stake your rep on being a fifth place team, these are the games you HAVE to win. Reds sweep double header, win 6-3.

Brendanukkah — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 03:18:02 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

He still thinks the C on his hat is for "Cueto." (AP Photo/David Kohl)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Brandon Phillips. Phillips went 3-4 with two runs, two RBI, a home run and a stolen base. He hit what seemed to be a second home run, but replays showed that it was a foul ball.

Key Plays

The Reds came flying out of the gate in the evening contest, with Drew Stubbs singling and Paul Janish bringing him home with a double. One out later, Brandon Phillips scored Janish with a single. Scott Rolen singled and Jonny Gomes hit a ground rule double to plate Phillips. After Darnell McDonald struck out, Corky Miller walked to load the bases. Sadly, Johnny Cueto struck out, but the Reds had a 3-0 lead.
Phillips made it a four run lead in the third inning with his 18th home run of the season.
Cueto, fresh off the DL, cruised until the sixth inning when he gave up a home run to Andrew McCutchen. Danny Ray Herrera came in to relieve, but after getting two quick outs he gave up a single to Ryan Doumit, a double to Steve Pearce, and singles to Brandon Moss and Ronny Cedeno. The Pirates had crept to within one run, and Nick Masset was called on to get the third out of the inning.
The Reds got some Great American Insurance runs in the eighth, when Darnell McDonald hit a ground rule double and Drew Stubbs hit his second home run of the day (but first of the game) to increase the lead to 6-3.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

This was Johnny Cueto's first win since July 1. It's his ninth of the season, which matches his total from last year.
The announced attendance of 13,051 for the day game was actually the attendance number from April 10, the rained out game. The Reds had an attendance of 9,087 for the nightcap, the lowest attendance ever at GABP.
The Reds had not swept a double header in ten years. (Actually, the last time I'm seeing such a sweep occurred on May 26, 1997. John Smiley beat Al Leiter [BOO!], and Mike Morgan beat Matt Beech. Terry Pendleton played third base. I'd totally forgotten he'd ever been a Red.)
With nine more losses, the Reds will clinch a losing season for the ninth straight year.
Nick Masset and Arthur Rhodes pitched in both games for the Reds. Jesse Chavez pitched in both games for the Pirates.
Francisco Cordero earned his 29th save. He's five away from passing Dan Quisenberry on the all-time list.

Final - 8.31.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh Pirates	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	3	8	0
Cincinnati Reds	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	X	6	13	0
WP: Johnny Cueto (9 - 10) SV: Francisco Cordero (29) LP: Paul Maholm (7 - 8)

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Who loses to the losers? Reds fall, 5-4.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 21:10:44 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

Though he didn't get his third win, Justin Lehr did still have a quality start. (AP Photo/David Kohl)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Josh Willingham. Ryan Zimmerman hit the two run base hit to win the game, but Willingham went 3-4 at the plate with a double and a home run, scoring twice and driving in three runs.

Key Plays

The game was scoreless until the fourth inning, when Adam Dunn led off with a double, and Willingham followed with his 19th home run of the year. The Reds would have trouble getting those two out all game.
Often a lead of any size seems too daunting to overcome for the Reds, but in the fifth inning they battled back. Ryan Hanigan led off with a single and Lehr sacrificed him to second. Hanigan went to third on a groundout by Willy Taveras. Drew Sutton then walked, and Joey Votto continued to actually play baseball by hitting a single to the outfield to drive in Hanigan. Up stepped Jonny Gomes, who's been enjoying Washington pitching. BAM! Over the fence went the baseball, and a 2-0 deficit had turned into a 4-2 lead.
In the sixth inning, the Dunn-Willingham combination bit Lehr again, as they both hit doubles to lead off the inning. Dunn's run made the score 4-3, and a wild pitch by Lehr put Willingham on third base with no outs. Fortunately, he was caught stealing home, and the inning passed without further damage.
With two outs in the bottom of the sixth, Lehr hit a double, and Willy Taveras singled, then stole second. Runners on second and third with a chance to add some Great American Insurance runs, but Drew Sutton struck out.
Dusty turned to his bullpen in the seventh inning, using Jared Burton and Danny Ray Herrera. Then in the eighth, Nick Masset came in to retire Ronnie Belliard before giving way to Arthur Rhodes. Rhodes then hit Adam Dunn with a pitch, gave up a single to Josh Willingham, and then pinch hitter Ryan Zimmerman hit a dying quail out to right field. Chris Dickerson, who replaced Gomes as part of a double switch (even though Balentien had just batted, and Gomes - our only power threat - was due to come up 4th in the ninth inning), couldn't make the shoestring catch and instead deflected the ball back in towards the infield. Drew Sutton came out half-heartedly to retrieve it and lob the ball back in, but Willingham alertly flew around the bases to take advantage and scored from first. Two runs, and the Reds had squandered the lead.

FanGraphs

Other Notes

Arthur Rhodes got the loss, his first decision of the year.
Adam Dunn was hit by a pitch twice in this game. For the series, he went 4-8 with two doubles, a home run, six walks, five runs scored, and those two HBPs.
Reds pitchers allowed no walks in this game.
The Reds only have seven more wins than the Nationals. Washington won the season series, 4-3.
Josh Willingham's 19th homer gave the Nats three players with more home runs than Reds leader Jay Bruce's 18. Dunn has 31 and Ryan Zimmerman has 24. Votto and Phillips both have 17 and Gomes's blast today gives him 15 - in 196 plate appearances. He has four in his last three games.

Final - 8.16.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Washington Nationals	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	0	5	7	1
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	4	8	1
WP: Jorge Sosa (2 - 1) SV: Mike MacDougal (13) LP: Arthur Rhodes (0 - 1)

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Injuries Have Taken a Big Bite Out of the Reds This Season

Slyde — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 17:30:19 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Willy Taveras has been listed as day-to-day three different times this season, but "luckily" he hasn't landed on the DL. Chris Dickerson has not been so lucky.

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I don't like to use injuries as an excuse. Every team faces some injuries every season and the fact is this team is bad. They'd be bad even if everybody had been healthy. Maybe they wouldn't be as bad, but they are not winning anything with their current roster construction. I imagine if the majority of the roster had stayed healthy, they'd probably be pushing .500 at best.

That's not to say that the injuries haven't been brutal. I'm not sure exactly how this compares to past seasons numerically, but the Reds have been battered by injuries all year long. By my estimate, they have lost 538 days on the big league roster for players listed as day-to-day or on the disabled list. This isn't a completely accurate representation though since Wilkin Castillo and Danny Richar were brought up just a few days before getting injured. It's hard to count their missing days as doing much harm to the roster. Still, 17 players from the Opening Day roster have missed a combined 441 days to injury. It's hard for any team to recover from such a string of injuries, not to mention one that wasn't particularly good to begin with.

Probably the worst outcome of these injuries though is that it has prevented the brass from truly evaluating the team to identify the holes on the roster. I fully expect to hear excuses in the off-season that Willy Taveras or Alex Gonzalez was never truly healthy, but with no mention of the fact that neither player has been particularly healthy over the last 3 seasons.

If anything, that is what these injuries have done to the season - created a crap excuse. Well that, and taken Edinson Volquez out of the 2010 equation. Stupid injuries.

Special thanks to Fantasy Pitch Fx's Injury Tool for making the data available and reasonably easy to compile. After the jump I have a complete list of days lost to injury for the Reds in 2009.

2009 Reds Days Lost to Injury
(DTD = Day to Day, DL = Disabled List)
Player	DTD	DL	Current
Ryan Hanigan	6	0
Joey Votto	10	24
Brandon Phillips	7	0
Alex Gonzalez	11	35
Edwin Encarnacion	0	66
Laynce Nix	3	0
Willy Taveras	12	0
Jay Bruce	0	30	+
Ramon Hernandez	0	23	+
Chris Dickerson	5	15	+
Scott Rolen	6	0	+
Danny Richar	0	39	+
Wilkin Castillo	0	52	+
Micah Owings	0	16	+
Bronson Arroyo	3	0
Johnny Cueto	1	0	+
Edinson Volquez	0	85	+
Mike Lincoln	0	59
Jared Burton	0	15
Nick Masset	0	15
TOTAL	64	474	9

Now I'm a fan of the 154 game season. At least it would be over quicker. Reds lose, 6-3.

Brendanukkah — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 02:41:45 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

"Hi ball! My name is Wladimir! I'm new here! Nice to meet you, ball! kbaithx!" (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Tom Gorzelanny. 7.1 innings of three hit, one run ball, with a walk and six strikeouts. He also went 1-3 with a walk and an RBI in his Cubs debut.

Key Plays

Kosuke Fukudome, the first batter of the game, hit a home run. If you didn't think the Reds were done for that point, you have more optimism than I.
Johnny Cueto actually shut down the Cubs after that, until the sixth inning. With one out, Aramis Ramirez doubled and Jake Fox was hit by a pitch. Alfonso Soriano singled and the bases were loaded. Cueto struck out Mike Fontenot, and there was a glimmer of hope that Cueto would escape unharmed. But Willy Taveras couldn't come up with a diving catch off the bat of Koyie Hill. The hit went for a double and scored Ramirez and Fox. The pitcher, Gorzelanny, singled next to drive in Soriano. Dusty brought in Danny Ray Herrera, who gave up a hit to Fukudome, and just like that the Cubs had tacked on four more runs.
Derrek Lee homered off of Nick Masset to begin the seventh inning to finish off the Cubs scoring.
Finally in the eighth inning, the Reds decided they should do something offensively, instead of just something offensive. Craig Tatum got hit by a pitch, and then Willy Taveras got his second hit of the game (!) to move Craiggers to second. Then Joey Votto, as he is wont to do, singled to drive in a run. God bless that man.
The "comeback" continued in the ninth inning, as Jonny Gomes got hit by a pitch, and then new Red Wladimir Balentien atoned for some of his suspect fielding with his first home run as a Red. 6-3, and with two outs, Tatum hit a double to tantalizingly prolong the rally. For the second night in a row, Willy Taveras found himself in the Javier Valentin Memorial Last Out of the Game position. And he did his predecessor proud with a ground ball to the second baseman. Reds lose 8 in a row.

Too lazy to post a win probability graph. Besides, the win was never probable.

Other Notes

This 8 game losing streak is the longest for the Reds since 2005. All 8 of these losses have come at home.
Cueto is 0-5 with a 9.85 ERA in his last six games.
You can blame it on the rain if you want, but there were only 17,992 in attendance, and most of those were Cubs fans.
With Cueto's loss, the Reds only have two starters that have a .500 record or better - Bronson Arroyo (10-10) and Edinson Volquez (4-2).

Final - 8.4.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Chicago Cubs	1	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	6	9	1
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	6	0
WP: Tom Gorzelanny (4 - 1) LP: Johnny Cueto (8 - 9)

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Rockies Sweep Reds 6-4, Win in Extras for First Time in 2009

Jabberwocky — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 22:14:20 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

You won't like him when he's angry.

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It was a game of wild emotion swings, extra fun, internet unreliability, and ultimately sweet, sweet victory for the Rockies. At least it was for me.

This game had the look of an easy victory, with Jason Marquis cruising with a three run lead (courtesy almost entirely of Ian Stewart) going into the bottom of the seventh. Then Laynce Nix hit a Marquis mistake out to right field for a three-run homer to even the game.

Okay, I said to myself, this isn't good. Then Troy Tulowitzki showed off his considerable power off of Arthur Rhodes in the eighth, going oppo to give the Rockies a one run lead. The Rockies looked solid...and then Jim Tracy out-thought himself, bringing in Joe Beimel for a lefty-lefty matchup against big bad Joey Votto. Boom, tie ball game on a monster shot to center. When the game went to extras, I had basically conceded this game as the most frustrating loss of the season--after all, the Rockies were the last team in the majors without an extra-inning win (they had previously been 0-4).

Thankfully, the Rockies' bullpen (Matt Daley and Franklin Morales) pitched well enough to get the team past Reds closer Francisco Cordero and to Nick Masset, who gave up the tie-breaking triple to Dexter Fowler, who hasn't started for four games. Garrett Atkins "beat out" an infield single, scoring Fowler, and Huston Street shut the door. Morales (3-0) picked up his second win in three days.

Other than the Nix blast, Marquis was once again marvelous, giving up only four hits over seven innings. Meanwhile, Stewart (2-4, HR, 2 RBI), Tulowitzki (2-5, HR) and Carlos Gonzalez (3-3, BB) were offensive stalwarts for Colorado.

Box Score

With the victory (their fourth straight), the Rockies move to eleven games over .500 (and also to 17-8 vs. the NL Central), their high-water mark of the season--though it appears that they will remain tied with the Giants for the NL Wild Card lead. They will finish their ten game road trip with a three game set in Philadelphia beginning Tuesday.

58 - 47

Games Back: 6.5

Streak: Won 4

Games Left: 57

Graph, Roll Call, and Panda Rating after the jump.

via www.fangraphs.com

Jukebox Heroes: Fowler (.284), Stewart (.224), Tulowitzki (.188), Morales (.180), Gonzalez (.170)
William Hung Impersonators: Beimel (-.325), Omar Quintanilla (-.188), Brad Hawpe (-.161)

Rowbot Roll Call: The Lodo Magic Man, Mondogarage, GoRockies!! (silver), jrockies, Russ, theshiva, Rockie4Ever, Hollidayrain (most prolific), coolopotamous, Jabberwocky, SDcat09 (bronze), Since1993, Chrysicat, biondino, ch3cooh1, WalkInRight, holly96, frightenedinmate#2, WolfMarauder, fantasyfencing, bballrox4717, lizardlad01, FooMan, ALrockies, Rocktober 2007, free7694, Rebel14, pedalpusher, nkrause, herewereyouwish, alex colfax, alacy9513, Junction Rox, RockiesMagicNumber, Angélique C. Murray, walkoff59, NewMexicanSteven, Rox Girl, theoldgrizzlybear
Total Users: 39
Total Posts: 1268

It was a monster thread in no small part due to after-game discussion and a lack of an overflow thread (mea culpa).

Panda Rating

Relieved Panda