SB Nation - David Aardsma

Fantasy Baseball: Early AL Closer Watch.

Ian, yo — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 03:04:26 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

8 months ago: New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera delivers to a member of the Phillies AAA club during a spring training baseball game at the Yankees minor league complex in Tampa, Fla., Tuesday, March 31, 2009. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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We've seen a lot of trade rumors and trade analysis as of late and there really hasn't been any mention of the many teams with closer situations. We will check back in after a few months and see if anything has changed, but this is how things are looking as of now.

AL East

Yankees- I think we all know this answer. Mo' should be one of the top closers in the game again. One day, he may fall apart, but for a player of his caliber, he may retire before than happens. Next in line: Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Mark Melancon.
Red Sox- Jonathan Papelbon. In 2009, Papelbon posted a 1.85 ERA, which would lead you to believe he had a successful season. If you look at the peripheral stats, you'd see that Papelbon had an FIP of 3.05 and while he kept his K/9 above 10, he posted a BB/9 over 3 for the first time since his rookie season where he threw only 34 big league innings. I wouldn't be surprised to see Papelbon traded with the closer in waiting in Daniel Bard likely getting more work in the later innings. Next in line: Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen.
Orioles- Mike Gonzalez. The Orioles signed Gonzalez to be their closer and I can't really see anyone challenging him for the job this year. Next in line: Jim Johnson, Kam Mikolio.
Blue Jays- Jason Frasor. While there is nothing concrete in Toronto, I think Frasor will be the guy in 2010. Frasor saved 11 games in 2009 and ended the season with an FIP of 2.99 and a K/BB of 3.50. I think if the season were to begin today, Frasor would be the man, but he could lose it fairly easily. Next in line: Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo.
Rays- Rafael Soriano. The Rays either didn't seem confident or have other plans for J.P Howell in 2010. After trading prospect Jesse Chavez to Atlanta, the Rays are set at closer with Soriano. If he were to get hurt (which he does somewhat often) I would think Wheeler is the next on the list with Howell being the late inning lefty. Next in line: Dan Wheeler, J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour.

AL Central

Twins- Joe Nathan. See Mariano Rivera. Next in line: Jon Rauch, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares.
Tigers- Joel Zumaya. Currently the Tigers depth chart lists Zumaya as the closer. He's always been thought of as the closer of the future, but the Tigers have never really given him an extended look due to durability concerns. If made a closer, Zumaya could be a top level closer but he'll have to get his walks under control for that to happen. Next in line: Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Casey Fien, Phil Coke.
White Sox- Bobby Jenks. As we speak, Jenks seems to be the closer and is listed as such on the depth chart. Matt Thornton is the better pitcher, but experience could be key here. I still think Thornton ends up with the job at some point. Next in line: Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz.
Indians- Kerry Wood. Wood struggled in and there are a few more guys in waiting that could make this one of the more interesting (aka: avoidable) closer situations in 2010. Next in line: Chris Perez, Rafael Perez.
Royals- Joakim Soria. One of the more talented relievers in the game. He was hampered by injuries a bit in 2009 and still saved 30 games with a 2.21 ERA. I don't see him going anywhere. Next in line: Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth.

AL West

Angels- Brian Fuentes. Didn't have the greatest season, but the Angels paid him to close, so I don't see him doing anything else. Next in line: Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen.
Rangers- Frank Francisco. Francisco spent time on and off the DL in 2009 and the Rangers bolstered their bullpen by adding Chris Ray and Darren Oliver, making the closer role available to C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray, Francisco or fireballer Neftali Feliz. If the Rangers decide not to prepare Feliz to start, he could very easily become an elite closer. Next in line: Chris Ray, C.J. Wilson, Neftali Feliz.
Mariners- David Aardsma. The Mariners seem to be pushing for a playoff berth in 2010 by trading away Brandon Morrow for Brandon League and prospect Johermyn Chavez. League brings a big time GB% (which fits in with Seattle's league leading defense.) While I do think Aardsma will be the closer and will be successful, I wouldn't totally rule out a trade of one of the young, power arms in Seattle's pen. Next in line: Mark Lowe, Brandon League, Shawn Kelley, Joshua Fields.
Athletics- Andrew Bailey. The reigning AL Rookie of the Year is likely to be the closer for the A's in 2010, but that's what we thought about Brad Zeigler in 2009. I still see Bailey as the closer, however. Next in line: Brad Ziegler, Joey Devine, Michael Wuertz, John Meloan.

Fantasy Baseball: 2010 AL Closer Dynasty/Keeper Rankings

Ian, yo — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 03:05:47 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

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1. Mariano Rivera- Another year older, another year of a sub 2.00 ERA. I do think Mo's age will catch up with him one day, whether it be in the form of injury or inefective-itis, but I don't think that will be 2010. I think Rivera will have another season of 35+ saves and excellent peripherals.

2. Joe Nathan- Had a career high 47 saves and while he had the highest ERA in 4 years, a 2.10, isn't really all that bad. Look for an ERA around 2 with 35+ saves again and a K/9 possibly hovering over 10.

3. Jonathan Papelbon- Numbers close to career averages except a BB/9 of over 3, which is the highest since he'd been put in the closer role. Boston fans seem fed up with him and the Sox have a closer in waiting in Daniel Bard. Don't be surprised to hear Papelbon's name floated in trade rumors.

4. Joakim Soria- Posted the highest K/9 in his career and saved 30 games while missing time in 2009. Expect another season with peripherals hovering in the same area but don't be surprised to see another year with a low save total.

5. David Aardsma- Career highs across the board, including innings pitched. This will be the first time Aardsma has played back to back seasons in the same city, which could help his cause extremely and maybe provide the consistency needed.

6. Brian Fuentes- Had the most saves in baseball in 2009, but had a large drop in K/9 and a spike in whip (1.40 with a career of 1.26) He may get you a high total, but it may not be pretty.

7. Andrew Bailey- Logged 83.1 innings as a rookie so you can definitely see a regression. A regression could be a jump in whip and ERA, but expect the K's to be there.

8. J.P. Howell/Other- The closer situation in Tampa is a bit sketchy, but I don't feel confident with any of the closers left on this list, so Howell gets this by default. Keep in mind that the Rays could go out and get a closer in free agency or trade (hint: Billy Wagner.) If they do, that person would likely be number eight still.

9. Frank Francisco- Spent many weeks on the DL in the 2009 season, and had an ERA floating on the high end of the 3's. Possibly due to the injuries. I'm fine taking a closer on a solid offensive team this late.

10. Bobby Jenks/Matt Thornton/Other- Whispers have been spreading about Kenny Williams sending a letter mentioning his veterans being available in trades and Jenks was fairly disappointing in 2009. Thornton has the stuff to be a nasty closer and 2010 could be the season it happens.

Almost as Good as Seeing Greinke: devil & Mrs. _fingers to Attend Baseball Game

devil_fingers — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 20:47:13 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

You better watch your back (at a baseball game) tonight, fat boy.

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It's been a weird week. I didn't blog much. I mean, compared to certain other people who allegedly are "on staff" here (I think "Kyle Boddy" might actually be a bot that signed me up. After I started writing for this blog, I did notice a lot of strange charges on my credit card and a bunch of erectile dysfunction medication, which I totally don't need, started showing up on our dorrstep) I churned out the content, but whatever.

Here's the deal, though. For the first time since the birth of Branyan Langerhans Fingers, the Mrs. and I are going out. It's a big deal. Some may recall that earlier this summer, we had good tickets to see Zack Greinke pitch when the Royals came up to visit the Blue Jays. Well, not only was that Zack's worst start of the season... but I didn't even get to go because I ended up in surgery for appendicitis.

Mrs. Fingers let the Jays know what was up and to see if they could give us "make up" tickets. And guess what? Despite the massive popularity and success of the Jays this season, they had replacement tickets for us! Thanks, Blue Jays. So, while I won't get to see the Royals and Greinke, I will get to see Roy Halladay. He's pretty good, I suppose, for a guy who probably won't even be worth 9 WAR this season. So that should be fun.

Not much else to say. The Royals are driving me nuts, "real life" has gotten busy, and so on. But here's the deal: if anyone is interested, I will be (hopefully) Tweeting LIVE from the game occasionally. Here's my Twitter feed. I'm sure I'll have all sort of brilliant insights. And I'll get to run into my kid's namesakes as well, perhaps, since the Mariners are in town. Or at least punch Jack Z. in the face for 'the incident.' Have a good weekend, everyone.

Current Series

Mariners lead the series 1-0

Thu 09/24	WP: Felix Hernandez (17 - 5) SV: David Aardsma LP: Jesse Carlson (1 - 6)	4 - 5 loss
Seattle Mariners Lookout Landing @ Toronto Blue Jays Bluebird Banter Friday, Sep 25, 2009, 7:07 PM EDT Rogers Centre Doug Fister vs Roy Halladay Partly cloudy. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 60. Complete Coverage >
Sat 09/26		10:07 AM PDT
Sun 09/27		10:07 AM PDT

Is This Sparta?

Graham — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 00:21:58 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

His hat is stifling. It narrows his vision. And he must see far. His glove is heavy. It throws him off balance. And his target is ninety feet away.

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We've been hearing about the Mariner bullpen quite a lot this season. For a unit that was entirely comprised of question marks, it's held out particularly well, and is often cited as one of the prime reasons the Mariners have remained above .500 well into September. Perhaps no element of the team has defied expectations so much as the relief corps. With a week left in spring training, there was no closer. Late inning duties this year have been shared by a guy who was traded for a no-name last winter, someone who was a no-name last winter, a guy who's coming back from microfracture surgery in his pitching elbow, someone who isn't Tim Lincecum (he didn't last for very long), and Sean White, who is boring. Complementing the late inning boys was a random crop of AAA arms and Miguel Batista. One can only imagine how bullpen coach John Wetteland must have felt when presented with his men at the start of the year, but eventually he was able to turn them into a functional (albeit more than slightly insane) unit.

How? As the story goes, on an early-season road trip, Mark Lowe downloaded 300, which for those unfamiliar with it, is a ridiculously over-the-top movie about the Spartans at Battle of Thermopylae, which occurred during the second Persian invasion of Greece in late 480 BC (spoiler: they all die). He shared his enthusiasm for the film with Wetteland, and things snowballed from there. Members of the bullpen adopted characters from the movie, Spartan helmets popped up everywhere, and a grand ol' time was had by all. One wonders exactly how badly the relievers expected the team to do if they felt as though they identified best with a bunch of guys who all end up dead, but there's no denying it fueled an us-against-the-whole-damn-world mindset that the bullpen latched onto and used as inspiration to pitch their hearts out. The siege mentality was further reinforced when MLB officials decided to take their helmets away. Small wonder, then, that the bullpen has pitched their collective hearts out this year, keeping games just close enough for the struggling position players to scrape out more wins than losses.

This would be all well and good if the Mariner bullpen was actually as good as traditional numbers suggest. But they're not. They're not even average, despite all the one-run games and saves for David Aardsma. By using tRA-derived valuation statistics, they've been more than a quarter-century of runs below average, which turns out to be the worst mark in the American League. AL West rivals Oakland, on the other hand, are well over the +50 mark, which is a spread of almost seven and a half wins. By the numbers, they have answered the questions surrounding them in spring training, and the answer turns out to have been 'holy crap they're bad'. But this doesn't jive at all with their ability to keep them Mariners in business in close games. The team has won an absurd number of one run games, and generally has the ability to keep games close once the team turns over pitching duties to the bullpen. So what gives? Is the Mariner bullpen an above-average unit with an elite closer as the spearhead, or is David Aarsdma the equivalent of affixing a razor blade to a forty foot tall marshmallow and calling it a weapon? Or is the answer somewhere in between?

I hope it's the last option, because otherwise I've just spent a tonne of time collecting data for no good reason. Let's dig in.

Note: All data current as of 2:39 PM Sept 12th, 2009. Partial innings denoted as .3 for one out, .7 for two.

First, let's look at our cast of intrepid heroes and Denny Stark. Who's been leaned on the most? The quartet of Mark Lowe, Sean White, Miguel Batista, and David Aardsma have accounted for a little over half of the innings thrown by Mariner relievers this season, as shown in the chart below:

Figure 1: Innings pitched by Mariner relievers in 2009

Chris Jakubauskas and Shawn Kelley have also both seen significant time this year as well, and Kelley was thriving in a late-inning role until he suffered a rib injury in mid-May. Five arms have appeared in both the rotation and the bullpen, including Brandon Morrow, who began the season as the closer before a series of meltdowns got him demoted. Now that we have a pretty good idea of who's soaked up how many innings, let's take a look at their numbers in RA and tRA form:

Table 1: RA, tRA, rRAA, and pRAA for Mariner relievers in 2009

rRAA and pRAA are computed by taking the difference between league RA and tRA respectively and multiplying by innings pitched/9 for rRAA and expected innings/9 for pRAA, with Δ denoting the difference between rRAA and pRAA. As the column on the far right shows, Mariners pitchers have, by and large, far exceeded their expected value as far as defence/park-independent statistics are concerned. This is hardly a surprise, as the Mariners have the best defence in the game and play in a pitcher-friendly park. The biggest differences are in Sean White and David Aardsma's numbers, who between them 'should' be worth around 15 runs less than their actual numbers would suggest. Again, this isn't a surprise, as the pitchers likely to have the biggest negative difference between pRAA and rRAA are those who've been highly effective by ERA and associated metrics. The opposite should also hold true: the poor performers are likely to have been negatively impacted by their fielders.

In fact, the only relief pitchers who have a lower tRA than RA are Mark Lowe, Brandon Morrow, and Garrett Olson, and only Lowe has been part of the bullpen all season. The numbers are fairly remarkable - by using traditional numbers, the Mariner bullpen has been worth +6.4 runs total, and with pRAA, they've been at a rather alarming -25.9. Miguel Batista is particularly notable for having cost us almost ten runs over the course of the season, but he's had a couple of competitors for the suckiest bullpen arm award, with Jakubauskas and Stark (in ten innings somehow) pushing him all the way. Some (most) of the numbers in the table above has to have come from the defence, as Safeco Field isn't going to explain away the whole thing. But before we look at defensive contributions explicitly, I'd like to introduce the concept of leverage.

Most of you should be familiar with Jeff's lovely win expectancy charts, which appear after nearly every game. The idea of win expectancy is straightforward. For each game state (outs, score, runners, inning) we can figure out the likelihood of an average team beating another average team. Despite most teams not being completely average and entirely constituted of average players, win probability can be used as a measure of how important a given event was in terms of winning or losing baseball games. A walk-off home run? Worth a lot. A two-out walk with the bases loaded in the second when down by five? Not so much. In fact, for each game state, we know what the possible swings in win probability are. A team cannot possibly make a big impact in one at-bat when they're ten runs down, even if the batter hits a grand slam, but with the tying run at third with one out in the ninth, the situation can become critically important.

Table 2: 2009 AL relief leverage by
team, descending

Leverage is a measurement of just how important those situations are. Fortunately, the good people at Fangraphs keep track of this number for both teams and individual players. Here we are concerned with the average leverage a pitcher sees, denoted as pLI (the average is 1.00). In general one might expect bullpens to see higher leverage situations than starting pitchers, but as Table 2 to the left shows, this is not the case for most of the American League, which have seven teams below 1.00 and 12 below 1.10. The standout teams are the Boston Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners, with the latter leading the major leagues in bullpen leverage (the Dodgers and Cubs are also both over 1.20 in average bullpen leverage).

There are a number of reasons why we might see such a disparity in the stressfulness of situations seen by a bullpen. One such reason might be that a team is poor enough that they are regularly losing by large enough amounts to make winning improbably: this might apply to the AL's basement teams: Oakland, Kansas City, and Baltimore. Or the opposite could be true and the team could routinely be so far ahead by the time the manager goes to a reliever that their innings simply aren't worth very much, which is the route taken by the New York Yankees and their absurdly powerful offence.

Conversely, a team which finds its bullpen highly stressed will be in contention to win many games, one that relies on excellent run prevention to keep things close. That would be the Mariners. Their bullpen leverage index of 1.23 means that the runs saved or given up by Mariner relievers are worth 132% of those saved or given up by their counterparts in New York.

The same concept applies to individual pitchers on the same team. By multiplying innings pitched by individual pLI, we can see the relative importance of the innings a pitcher has soaked up, as shown below:

Figure 2: IP*pLI for Mariner relievers in 2009

As we can see, David Aardsma springs into the lead once important innings are considered. The top four of Aardsma/Lowe/White/Batista are now responsible for almost two thirds of leveraged relief innings, and the team total has jumped by more than 100 innings (this is insane, by the way). Aardsma and Lowe are entirely responsible for the team's jump in innings total, with the former experiencing the equivalent of 76 extra innings' worth of stress and the latter a robust +38, due to pLIs of 2.21 and 1.55 respectively. Brandon Morrow's adventures in Minnesota and Texas see him grab more innings, and poor Doug Fister, who made his debut at the end of a blowout game, has his contribution marked as wholly irrelevant and thus discarded.

We need to account for leverage when we look at value metrics like pRAA, and again this is a simple case of multiplication. Numbers multiplied by pLI are denoted with an apostrophe:

Table 3: pLI and leveraged rRAA and pRAA for Mariner relievers in 2009

Aardsma's performance is particularly notable, but apart from the fantastic contribution from our closer, what really stands out is how poorly Miguel Batista has been used. His pLI was just a tick below average, and this season he's been running a tRA of almost six. While his contract demanded that he be on the roster somewhere, the damage he's caused could probably have been mitigated by relegating him to mop-up duty rather than deploying him in relatively close games. Denny Stark and Chris Jakubauskas both saw their negative contributions decreased due to their throwing in less stressful situations, which would have left Batista all alone at the bottom if not for the increased impact of The Adventures of Brandon Morrow. The chart does show you why the Mariner pen is held in high regard by those watching, though. The important innings have gone to White, Aardsma, and Lowe, and by and large they just haven't allowed runs, to the tune of 44 runs saved by rRAA. Let's look at an overall comparison between rRAA, pRAA, and the leveraged numbers:

Table 4: rRAA, pRAA, and leveraged values for Mariner relievers in 2009

As shown in the table above, leveraging the numbers results in an increase in both rRAA' and pRAA'. This should go as a feather in the cap of Don Wakamatsu, as it demonstrates his ability use his bullpen arms (sans Batista) effectively - the most important innings have gone to the most able pitchers. It's really no wonder that those watching games and following closely think that the team has a good bullpen. Naturally, we pay more attention when we're in with a shot at winning, and in those situations, the relief corps just doesn't give up runs. It's hard not to be confident in the later innings when your top arms are that good at shutting the opposition's bats. But again, how much of this is the responsibility of the pitcher? pRAA' agrees that the bullpen is generally far better when the game's on the line, but still has the unit as well below average, and almost three wins less valuable than it would appear when simply looking at runs, which is a similar result to what we saw earlier when looking at unleveraged values.

The defence, then, has to have some responsibility for the perception of the bullpen as an elite unit. How much defensive support has each pitcher received? Is defence clutch in any way (the most likely explanation for this would be sensible use of defensive replacements)? Although you could probably figure things out from the numbers above, we like our graphs around here - the chart below shows the defensive support given to each pitcher per tRA's xRR, which is simply expected runs minus actual runs with park effects accounted for. Both plain xRR and xRR multiplied by pLI are shown.

Figure 3: Defensive support (standard and leveraged) for Mariner relievers in 2009 (click image for full size).

Aardsma and White have been the primary beneficiaries of the defence this season, but it's hard to argue in favour of defensive clutchness: Morrow didn't get much support, and Lowe has been a little better than his traditional line too. In fact, summing leveraged xRR and subtracting plain xRR leaves you with one extra run, which is a little surprising considering the average pLI of 1.23. Overall, the defence hasn't cared who's pitching or what the score is - it's just gone out and made plays no matter the situation. Despite some of it being explained away with leveraged numbers, I have to conclude that the greater part of the difference between 'common knowledge' and a quick statistical peek at our pen's numbers is due to Franklin Gutierrez and company.

All in all, I think it's pretty clear that although the bullpen isn't as good as commonly believed, it hasn't been as bad as simply looking at unleveraged pRAA would suggest, simply because the guys relied on when the games are on the line have been much better than those in mopup duty (surprise!). However, the bullpen has still been below average, and without the safety blanket of the best defence in the game to make them look good, we'd hear less about resilience and esprit de corps and more about fatigue and the need for mechanical tweaks.

If this is Sparta, it's been more Sellasia than Thermopylae.

62-59, Game Notes

Jeff — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 01:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Look at this picture. Look at this picture and submit it to memory. Done? Terrific. Now have fun not sleeping tonight.

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Here's a fun fact for you: the Mariners, at one point, have had the lead in ten of their last eleven games. Over that span they are 5-6. It's weird to think about since so many of us wrote the season off weeks ago, but turn a few of those blown leads into wins and we're still right in the thick of the hunt. Who knew? Of course, as it happens we're not right in the thick of the hunt. Y'know. Because we blew the leads.

It happens every time. Whenever a generally reliable closer blows a save, people have to start asking what happened, as if something were wrong. Sometimes something is wrong. But most of the time, it was just a bad game, and that's what we saw today. David Aardsma isn't hurt. There isn't anything dragging him down mentally. He's just David Aardsma, and even this effective version of David Aardsma is going to have his forgettable days, because if he didn't he'd be Mariano Rivera.

When you're dealing with something that only happens six or eight times a year, like a blown save or a Carlos Silva quality start, people tend to read too much into it, because it's rare. The truth of the matter, though, is that something like a blown save is only considered rare because closers only get 40-50 save opportunities in a season. Blown saves don't happen that often because closers don't pitch that often. Don't worry about David Aardsma. He remains now the same thing he was this morning - a good but by no means excellent reliever. Though he blew it today, overall he's done more good than bad.

Let's make one thing clear right now: the Mariners didn't light up Jarrod Washburn. While he allowed four home runs, there seemed to be an awful lot of wind blowing balls out to left, and the M's only hit a handful of balls hard all day. Jarrod struck four guys out, walked one, and pretty much pitched like a half-decent starter who gave up some unlucky dingers.

But that's precisely what made today so much fun. Remember this? Allow me to compose a list:

2003: 7.4% home runs per ball in air (not adjusted for park)
2004: 6.6%
2005: 5.5%
2006: 6.7%
2007: 5.8%
2008: 5.8%
2009 (Mariner): 4.3%

That 4.3% sure looks like an outlier, right? Following the trade I expected Jarrod to look more like normal in the home run department. And, well

2009 (Tiger): 18.6%
2009 (Overall): 6.3%

Washburn has allowed 43 balls in the air as a Tiger, and eight of them have cleared the fence. That's absurd, and as we saw today some of those homers were complete flukes, but at the end of the day what matters most is that, in just a couple weeks, he's pulled his home run rate all the way back up (down?) to normal. He's had the good luck. Today he had the bad luck. Regression doesn't usually happen like this, but it sure is fun to watch it happen to a guy who isn't on your team anymore.

It's not that I wish ill on Jarrod Washburn. Truth be told, I don't really care about him one way or another. If he wins the World Series with Detroit, great, and if he doesn't, great. It's more that I'm just a sucker for validation. Jarrod Washburn isn't good. We've been saying that for months. People resisted. Hopefully now those people have learned their lesson. All of us - we're happy to admit when we're wrong. It's fun to be wrong. Being wrong is how you learn. We weren't wrong about Jarrod Washburn.

On a related note, a lot of people have said they'd like to re-sign Washburn because he's a perfect fit for the stadium and the defense. Newsflash: that doesn't make Washburn unique. Any lefty flyballer is a perfect fit for the stadium and the defense. Saying that a guy would be able to benefit from his environment is not an endorsement of the guy; it's an endorsement of the environment.

I should note that I did wish ill on Washburn when Kenji Johjima was at the plate. I don't know who was in the wrong and who was in the right back when that whole thing first went down, but what I do know is that there was friction between the two guys, and it's fun to see the guy we have get revenge against the guy we don't. It was a pretty weak home run, but it still left the yard, and if I were Kenji I'd be smiling for days. I love that he hit it off the Dolphin. I love it.

As much as it sucks to lose a game in the ninth, the M's very nearly lost this game in the eighth. With two on and one out, Alex Avila lined a Shawn Kelley fastball into left-center that Franklin Gutierrez was barely able to flag down. With some other center fielders, that ball either bounces or gets all the way to the wall. Then, with two out, Placido Polanco popped a ball behind second that Josh Wilson raced after and caught on a snowcone. Wilson himself says he thought the ball was going to fall in, and these are the moments at which the relationship between ERA and defense becomes abundantly clear. This pitching staff is pretty uninspiring. This defense is otherworldly.

Speaking of Josh Wilson - Wilson doesn't really mean anything to us. We as fans don't think particularly high of him, and by bringing in Bill Hall, it's clear that the Mariners organization doesn't intend to keep Wilson around for the long haul. So he's not playing to impress us so much as he's playing to impress someone. He's right on the edge. Every day that Josh Wilson spends in a game is a day he spends fighting for his big league career, and it's with that in mind that you have to admire what he's been able to do of late. Since coming back up a week ago, Wilson's hit .320 and made some remarkable plays in the field. He's shown the sort of energy and spark that endears a guy to a coaching staff, and to be able to do what he's done under the constant pressure of fighting for his livelihood...Wilson isn't the kind of guy you really want to have playing a lot for your team, but he's the kind of guy you want to see succeed. People like Wilson don't get a lot of chances. Josh has seized this one, and that could end up meaning the world.

62-58, Game Notes

Jeff — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 05:12:04 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

If I keep talking about how Carlos Silva is on the way I'm going to start feeling like Gabbo.

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Question: Does the best team always win the World Series?

Hypothesis: The best team doesn't always win the World Series

Experiment: Ian Snell, Mariners vs. Justin Verlander, Tigers

Result: Ian Snell, Mariners > Justin Verlander, Tigers

Conclusion: The best team doesn't always win the World Series

Justin Verlander has a 28-strikeout lead over second place in the American League. Last year Carlos Silva didn't record his 28th strikeout until June 4th.

I'm thrilled that Ian Snell was able to pick up his first win as a Mariner. I really am. The guy has been through a lot this year, and earning his first win with Seattle should only be of help in his attempt to put everything in Pittsburgh behind him. With that said, just as I didn't think he was as bad as his eight runs against New York last week, he definitely wasn't as good as his one run tonight against Detroit. He only threw 54 strikes out of 98 pitches, he walked more than he struck out, he missed just six bats, and he fell behind 16 of the 23 batters he faced - including 12 of the last 14. The strike zone was dancing around on him all night, and it cut into his efficiency.

Here's the good news, though. Yeah, Snell missed a lot, but do you know where he missed?

via brooksbaseball.net
As a comparison, here's how Justin Verlander pitched. Now look back at Snell. Of his 44 balls, only seven - seven! - wound up more than 22 inches off the ground. When he missed, he missed low. It wasn't just his misses, either; most of his strikes were low, too. Snell was just pounding the lower half of the zone for the duration of his outing, and though he wasn't always able to hit his spot, he stayed around the right area, which prevented the Tigers from doing too much damage. That strikes me as a good way to help a struggling pitcher build some much-needed confidence.

If you're curious, here's what Snell looked like in his first start as a Mariner, his second, and his third. I think it's safe to say they had a different game plan today than in the past, and Johjima says as much on Drayer's blog.

The fastball [Johjima] said was good if it was kept down. To help keep Snell's focus down on all of his pitches Joh dropped to a one knee on the ground stance which he admitted made it a bit more difficult for him to block pitches. Despite this he felt it was important to keep his focus there so dropped to one knee as much as situations would allow.
Another part of the new game plan, from both Drayer's blog and the PITCHfx data, was getting Snell to throw more offspeed stuff. His final mix was 50 fastballs, 30 sliders, and 18 changeups, so they definitely executed that aspect of it as well, albeit with mixed results as far as throwing strikes is concerned. Still, it's good to see them trying new things, and it's good to see Snell have the sort of game he can feel good about. If the turnaround happens, it's not going to happen all at once. There are a lot of different things that Snell's working on right now, and we can't expect him to make all the adjustments in a day. Personally, I think that, if Snell's able to rediscover his old identity, we won't really see it until next spring. But having games like this along the way can only help. Posting good results will help Snell buy into the system, and I trust the system.

Another thing Snell's working on (he must feel like a college student going from one class to another), according to Drayer's Twitter, is:

Minor adjustment by Adair, wanted to get his front foot pointing towards the plate rather than to the 3rd base dugout
Here's what they want him to look like.

Here's what he looked like in his first start as a Mariner.

Here's what he looked like tonight.

Now, I think that last picture is a little misleading. I watched a lot of video on the MLB.tv archived footage, and Snell was still pointing his foot to the right of home plate a little bit. He's not "fixed" by any stretch of the imagination. But he did have his moments, and that's progress. Back when I used to pitch, the direction of the landing foot was a little thing that, for me, made a lot of difference - when I pointed my toes more towards first base (I'm a lefty) it felt like I was throwing over myself, like my front leg was sort of impeding forward motion. When I pointed my toes towards home, though, it was a much more fluid motion, and I had a better ability to spot the ball.

I'm not going to say that this will be the mechanical tweak that solves Ian Snell. Foot direction meant something to me, but it may not mean anything at all to him. That said, after going through some video, it seems to me that he did a better job of pointing towards home plate in 2007, so I'm definitely all about the team doing what it can to get him back to looking how he used to look. If they can get him landing better and feeling comfortable about it, something tells me we'll start to see him throwing more strikes.

Rob Johnson was available today. There was no reason for him not to be. And yet, with a pitcher struggling to find his way on the mound, we saw Kenji Johjima behind the plate. This interests me, because you'd think a team who believes in the Rob Johnson hype would want Johnson working with Snell, but it also makes me mad, because now we probably won't get to see Kenji square off against Jarrod Washburn.

Snell's fastest pitch tonight was 93.8mph.

I'm going to stick with the Snell subject a little while longer, because he's by far the most interesting guy to talk about today. One other thing I'll mention about him is that that 11-pitch at bat against Carlos Guillen in the sixth inning really went to show what can happen when you don't have an out pitch against left-handed hitters. If you thought that at bat felt like something out of Sean Green's playbook, you weren't the only one. Snell kept trying to get something by him or induce weak contact, but Guillen wasn't having any of it, and he just stayed in and fouled things off until Snell made a mistake. I won't say "get used to things like that," because 11-pitch at bats are highly unusual, but when we said that Snell struggles with lefties, this is what we were talking about. He just doesn't have the consistent changeup you need to be solid all around, and as such he will live and die by how well he can throw strikes to righties. Even if he gets good again, he'll still be pretty frustrating.

I think my favorite part of any winning broadcast is when Mike Blowers starts going on about how the secret behind David Aardsma's breakthrough season is greatly improved command of his fastball. Because even if his fastball command is greatly improved, what?

You know, considering the number of lefties he's faced, I'd say it's pretty impressive that Michael Saunders is one Chris Gimenez leap away from a .281/.324/.375 batting line. He's shown decent discipline, he looks beyond comfortable in left field, and tonight he put the ball in play in all four at bats while getting ahead of Verlander all three times he faced him. Saunders hasn't exactly had the softest big league landing imaginable, but he's managed, and for the time being I have zero complaints. I'd really like to see him maybe walk against a lefty once though.

My understanding is that rain is threatening tomorrow's 10:05am start time. Which might be just as well, because maybe it's not the best thing in the world to send a shorthanded and mediocre group of hitters up against a starting pitcher who knows each of their weaknesses.

Alexei Ramirez Helps John Danks Remember How To Win

The Cheat — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 04:50:54 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

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John Danks did not deserve to lose this game, but for much of the night that's where it looked like he was headed. He walked one and struck out 8 over 8 innings pitched but left the mound trailing 1-0, thanks to, you guessed it, a pitcher the White Sox have never seen before.

It was a typical Sox outing against a n00b. They had plenty of baserunners as El Diablo walked 4, but didn't have a single hit that left the infield in the game's first 8 innings even though Miguel Batista added 3 walks of his own.

Thankfully, David Aardsma entered in the 9th inning. You remember him as the guy who looked great for three weeks in '07, only to remember who he was the rest of the season. Well this year he's having a case of amnesia, and a lot of Safeco-aided flyball luck. That luck appeared to continue for the first batter he faced when Paul Konerko lifted a ball deep to center field only to be caught at the wall by Franklin Gutierrez.

3 batters later, his luck ran out. Alexei did his thing, and there was much joy in Soxville.

The win improves the White Sox record to 1-49 this season when trailing after 8 innings.

2009 Trade Deadline Preview: Seattle Mariners

Charlie — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 19:24:39 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Wladimir Balentien could be shipped out of Seattle before the trading deadline.

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Buyers or sellers?

If you frame it as "buy" vs. "sell," then it's a tricky question indeed, because on the one hand, the Mariners are only five games out of first in the AL West. On the other, there are two teams in front of them, they're about to lose two starting pitchers (Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn) to free agency, and they lost 101 games last year.

I might look for new GM Jack Zdurencik to do something that doesn't fall clearly on either side, and I'm not sure what that will be. But Zdurencik is too smart for obvious binaries. Take the recent trade of Yuniesky Betancourt to the Royals for pitching prospects Dan Cortes and Derrick Saito. Sure, that looks like selling, but when you're just getting rid of a terrible player and a terrible contract, you're probably not making the team worse.

I don't think the Mariners will give up any good prospects to make a run at a flashy veteran, so they won't be buying in the traditional sense, but they might find more creative ways to improve. One possibility would be to flip Bedard or Washburn for a player who won't be a free agent at the end of the season but can still provide immediate help.

Short-term need

The Mariners' catchers have been among the worst in the majors and, like a number of contending teams, they could use a bit more pitching depth, both in the bullpen and in the rotation. A real answer at shortstop--Ronny Cedeno might not be enough--could help, too.

Long-term need

Infield prospects--shortstop Carlos Triunfel is a high-risk prospect who could turn out to be very good, and there are a fair number of interesting third basemen in the minors, but there aren't enough middle infielders or first basemen. They could also use prospects of all stripes, particularly in the higher levels of the system. Zdurencik's predecessor Bill Bavasi didn't do the M's any favors by shipping off a number of promising youngsters for Bedard and by pursuing a bizarre drafting strategy that included drafting relievers in the first round twice in a row (with Phillippe Aumont in 2007 and Joshua Fields in 2008, depending on how you look at it; the M's under Bavasi used Aumont as a starter, but then again you might count 2006 first-rounder Brandon Morrow as a reliever too, since Bavasi used him as one).

Big leaguers on the market?

Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn, who are both pitching well and will both be free agents after the season, might be available. With the recent acquisition of Ryan Langerhans, outfielder Wladimir Balentien could go. And while David Aardsma's name isn't coming up with any regularity, Eric Karabell makes a compelling case that Aardsma might be the the sort of player the M's would consider trading--he's racking up saves, which are often overvalued.

Minor league strength

Their pitching depth could use some work, but Michael Saunders, Ezequiel Carrera, and Tyson Gillies are a very good corps of young outfielders. Greg Halman, who has hit a ton of homers this year and done little else, would fit into the middle of that list, too, if he were hitting better than .212. Second-overall draft pick Dustin Ackley will top the list if he signs.

Take on short-term money to win?

Dumping Betancourt should allow the Mariners to add salary at the deadline if they need to.

For more on the Mariners, check out Lookout Landing.

Omar Minaya Has To Go

Sam Page — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 10:00:14 -0000

In his opening press conference with the Mets, Omar Minaya immediately expressed a desire to make the team "younger and more athletic." In his ad-hoc press conference with the Mets yesterday, Minaya said (and I'm paraphrasing) "Were' investigating it with an investigation...We're going to investigate it....investigaty investigations."

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. This season, as the Mets have fallen out of contention, calls for Omar Minaya's firing have expectantly increased. In fact, the rumblings were present before the team's slide, as the Oliver Perez contract looked like a bust from the get-go. The calls for Minaya's job, however, are hardly universal, as his defenders cite the bad luck with injuries. So the debate goes:

"Fire omAr!!"
"No, it's not his fault, too many injuries."
"He should have better backups."
"No team can lose three of their best hitters and win."

And that's where it ends. The Minaya-defenders often come out of this argument looking more rational, because the fire-Omar position boils down to "we're losing." The main argument defending Minaya, "no team can lose that many players and be good," often goes unchallenged. Which is a shame, since it's wrong. The Boston Red Sox play in the A.L. East and have a lower payroll than the Mets. They have a well above-average defense, offense, and pitching staff. If the Red Sox were to lose David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Tim Wakefield, and Hideki Okajima and be thrown into the N.L. East, they'd beat the Phillies by at least five games. Their pitching staff would still be about 80 runs better than the Phillies, while their offense would only be marginally downgraded by slotting Adam LaRoche, Lars Anderson, Rocco Baldelli, and Jed Lowrie in for the injured position players. They have so much pitching depth, they could lose Dice-K, Penny, and Wakefield and have a better rotation the next morning. The Mets, for the same payroll, have one of the the worst rotations in the league. The only (non-fictional) injury to that rotation this season has been John Maine, a player who could barely throw the ball before spring training opened.

That's why the injury responsibility debate is a red-herring. Yes, the Mets would be in contention without those injuries. I do not deny that. Still, they'd only be in contention because they have enough great players to outweigh otherwise shoddy roster construction in a weak division. This season has not changed my opinion of Omar Minaya, it's validated it. The same people who once crooned for the Oliver Perez signing are printing "Fire Omar" T-Shirts because a giant spotlight has been cast on the rest of the roster. The Mets have been successful because they have four of the best players in the National League all playing premium positions, half of whom Minaya acquired. As somewhat of a side note, that's why it's always hard to compare the Mets' injury situation to other teams. No single other team has their three best position players at premium defensive positions. If the Mets didn't dump their garbage at first and in left, they would run away with this division every year.

Which is the main problem: Omar Minaya simply has not put enough talent on the field to make the Mets a championship organization. They can make the playoffs. Every year, there's a good shot. But they don't, and that's because he's wasted too much money and left too many holes in the roster every year. The Phillies never acquired a Johan Santana, they didn't have to. They just sat there and waited for the Mets to get worse on their way to the title. It's funny, because I used to think finding complementary players was Minaya's strength, because he continually struck gold (mostly in the bullpen) with every little trade he made in 2006. From that article:

It may be luck, it may be skill. It may be the result of a team with money taking good calculated risks. Whatever it is, Minaya's had it this year.

Turns out it was luck. The strength of the 2006 Mets, their bullpen, was made of good, not great, relievers who had career years. Such is the nature of the bullpen; in such small sample sizes, it's basically a coin flip between Mota-2006 and Mota-2007. That's why smart teams fill their bullpen with players with skills, namely high strikeout rates, that avoid the luck element of balls in play. David Aardsma isn't some lucky fluke that has become a shutdown closer out of the blue. He's got great skills, and is a guy USSMariner identified as a potentially good reliever for the M's last year. The last two pitchers with such skills in the Mets organization? Heath Bell and Billy Wagner. One got a big contract, the other was given away. Instead of investing in pitchers like Bell, who miss bats, the Mets threw a bunch of money at the now-infamous Mota and Scott Schoeneweis, who's only skill is being left-handed. The Mets didn't realize how lucky they were on many counts that year, with Beltran's career year, LoDuca's fluky BABIP-inflated average, and Jose Valentin's existence. None of those things, including the performance of their entire bullpen, could be expected to return the next year, but they sat there like next season started with a re-do of Game 7.

This inability to construct a good bullpen and bench has led to another conclusion I was previously averse to: it's nearly impossible for a General Manager that shuns sabremetrics to be successful in today's game. The emphasis on smart money management, coupled with the rise of young, underpaid superstars, has left extremely well-managed small-market teams like the Rays in too good a position. This point is NOT some trite stats vs. scouts argument, because obviously the Rays would be much worse off without the guys who take a radar gun down to Vanderbilt to watch David Price. Simply put, people who consider themselves scouts, and oppose sabremetrics, should not be put in charge of the asset management elements of a team (i.e. the position of General Manager). Besides Minaya, I would say Bill Smith of the Twins is a great example of this principle. The Twins are successful because they drafted a slew of good pitchers and Joe Mauer. Still, Bill Smith's tenure as GM has been mixed because he hasn't properly gotten maximum value for his money, trading Johan Santana, extending Jason Kubel, trading for Delmon Young, among other questionable moves.

I think Omar Minaya is a good scout, who knows how to get "his guy". That's proven by the acquisitions of Francisco Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, and Johan Santana. Still, no one with a reasonable grip on advanced fielding metrics would throw $4 million this offseason at Alex Cora, Cory Sullivan, and Rob Mackowiak. That's Dayton Moore, "I can see who can field," territory of roster mismanagement. That's why people are right the Mets shouldn't be this bad with this amount of money, why the Buffalo Bisons are so freaking awful. The Mets build depth, useless, counterproductive depth. Ramon Martinez and Angel Berroa will only make your team worse, there are better players out there making league minimum. Good GMs simply don't employ these types of players, at the risk they somehow have to use them.

That being said, I don't blame Omar Minaya for not having enough prospects to fill in for this season's injuries. Few teams can just call up top prospects for a bunch of positions they actually had blocked anyway. The two players the Mets could have most used this season, Carlos Gomez and Mike Carp, were traded with the intention of making the big league roster better. I think Minaya's doing a good job with the farm, despite his foolish reluctance to bust slot in the draft. When he does get a first-round pick, he hits, and when he hands out a big bonus to an international free-agent, they more often than not work out. That's why I think it's ludicrous the Mets are looking to make the scouting department a scapegoat this season (really, no medical staff?). Sorry John Harper, you missed the whole point, Mejia and Holt are great.

Instead, I think the larger problem, and my second big criticism of Minaya, is that he lacks a coherent plan. I don't mean Minaya's plan is just to sign big free agents and trade the farm, despite what that one anonymous scout assigned to Buffalo has been telling all the Mets beat writers. No, Minaya lacks coherent plans to build a complete team, which relates to the idea of complementary players discussed above. If I could condense this entire critique down to one word it would be "myopic." In 2008, Minaya focused on starting pitching and got Santana, leaving the bullpen an open wound. This offseason, it was all-bullpen all-the time and the Mets fielded their worst starting rotation in recent memory. Tim Redding and Livan Hernandez are the Ramon Martinez and Angel Berroa of the starting rotation. They don't eat innings, they cancel out Johan's contributions. The Mets rotation, despite featuring Johan Santana, are 23.8 runs below the average staff, somehow worse than a team that has Joe Blanton, Chan Ho Park, and Jamie Moyer.

The most annoying part of this offseason, indeed, was Minaya's insistence that they couldn't pursue outfielders because "they were working on their pitching." Coming from a team that "brainstormed" Francoeur-for-Church, that excuse just rings pathetic. Hey Mr. Wilpon, there are 100,000 Mets fans on the internet everyday who fix your bullpen AND lineup during their lunchbreak, and they do it for free (albeit with varying levels of success).

Before this season, I thought the Mets could win, but only in spite of what Minaya had done. The most positive move he had made was signing Gary Sheffield, a guy who even Gary Sheffield thought would be a pinch-hitter. Alas, Sheffield became the one player holding the Mets together, not because he is really that good, but because the "plan" in left was one Daniel Murphy, who had modest success in AA and a fluky BABIP in the majors the year before. Just to prove hindsight isn't 20-20, I humbly submit that I had these same qualms before the season, including Oliver Perez possibly exploding, the core getting injured, Maine's arm falling off, and Murphy being bad. The difference between my optimism then and my apathy now is all that bad stuff happened, and everyone gets to watch those holes in the roster magnified times 100.

The in-season management has only exacerbated the problem. The Santos-trade, the Francoeur-trade, and the release of Darren O'Day (has a better tRA in the American League than K-Rod has on the Mets right now), have been plain stupid. If Minaya's saving grace is identifying talent, I'm worried.

Amidst all this Bernazard craziness, Peter Gammons said something interesting yesterday about Tony B. undermining Minaya by both having a stronger relationship with Wilpon and by being the architect of the laughable minor-league depth. I'm not sure whether that reflects better or worse on Omar, but either way it suggests he's losing control of the team. I'm starting a campaign. It's not "FIRE OMAR." It's "Fire Bernazard, demote Minaya." The biggest defense of Minaya is that he brought the team out of obscurity, which is partially true. But if this season has taught us anything, it's that Steve Phillips' baseball intellect can make anyone look good. The Mets need a Chris Antonini or a Neal Huntington, a young dynamic leader who understands the finer points of player value to finish off the job Minaya started.

Omar Minaya is the scout who discovered Jose Reyes, not the General Manager who is going to put a ring on his finger.

50-44, Game Notes

Jeff — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 05:33:19 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Breakdown of Russell Branyan pictures: 10% portrait, 5% laughing, 5% fielding, 20% swinging, 0% sprinting, 60% jogging.

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For two hours, this felt even worse than yesterday. Through no fault of the King, the Mariners looked set to lose on the most sacred of days, coming out helpless against a bad pitcher and giving no support to their ace. Down 1-0 and doing little to suggest an imminent change, the M's looked weary, and for the thousandth time in the past few months I found myself thinking the same old thought to which each of us seem all too eager to return - perhaps this is the day that we tuck in our dreams. When Hannahan got tagged out at third on Ichiro's grounder, I about lost whatever hope still remained. That was it. That was the play that sealed the deal.

And, this time, it was Russell Branyan who provided the heroics. Branyan put his patented uppercut on a 1-0 Bobby Seay slider and launched an off-the-bat bomb beyond Guti's Graveyard in right-center, a towering blast that caught Dave Sims by surprise and caused Detroit's color guy to chuckle in resignation. For the second time in three starts, offensive theatrics made Felix eligible for a win after coming out of the game, and after a comfortable inning by Mark Lowe and David Aardsma's easiest save of the year, we were left to reflect on just the latest Mariner effort to stave off what has so often felt inevitable. Sure, the Royals did us no favors by blowing a big late lead, but somehow, at least as far as I'm concerned, that doesn't harsh my buzz, because as Hendu would say, the M's just pulled one out of the ol' magician's basket. I don't know how many times this season I've prepared myself to wave the white flag, but this team just won't let me.

Is this a team of destiny? Not in the least. But this is a team that's good, fun, and stubbornly staying in the race. While I'm sure at some point we'll go back to feeling nervous again tomorrow, every night we're still in it is a night I go to bed happy, and for each and every one of these I've learned to be thankful. Being on the edge isn't all bad. Here's to taking this one game at a time. Focus on every individual step and you might be surprised how far you can go.

Or, hey, Washburn could suck tomorrow and we could give up by noon. What am I, psychic?

When I got home from work and saw Felix's pitch count through four, I thought he'd be lucky to get deep into the sixth. A 28-pitch third did a number on his line, and I was concerned that, not only would we have to come back, but we'd also have to rely on the bullpen to keep things close. That's a big part of what made the middle innings feel so lousy. But then Felix switched on his internal efficiency machine, put his head down, and barreled through another three frames. In the fifth, sixth, and seventh innings, Felix threw a combined 34 pitches, facing ten batters and allowing only a double by Miguel Cabrera. What once looked like a potential brief effort turned into Felix's ninth consecutive start of 7+ innings. No sweat.

It really is incredible to me just how well Felix has come together. Let's set aside the fact that he still throws too many fastballs to left-handed hitters. Whatever. He's not perfect. But he's learned to control his heater, he misses bats, he throws all of his pitches, he keeps the ball on the ground, and he's a workhorse. On that last point, today was the 13th consecutive start in which Felix exceeded 100 pitches. Over those 13 starts, he's allowed 23 runs in 95.2 innings, walking 25 and striking out 90. He's just so damn good, and he's so damn good at everything. All the frustration, all the complaints, all the bad words - it's all been worth it to see Felix take his game to this level. This is what we wanted. And it's every bit as heavenly as we thought.

Another 16 swinging strikes today, by the way. It's always funny to me when lineups do pitchers the inconvenience of missing too often to allow for efficiency. 16 swinging strikes and two-thirds strikes overall. I really and truly don't know how I'm going to respond if and when the King eventually loses again. Tim Lincecum allowed four runs in five innings and lost tonight to Atlanta, and the damndest thing is that I can't even imagine that happening to Felix.

We had two hits.

After Branyan's home run, the camera cut to the Mariner dugout, where we saw Felix take a water cup and stomp it on the ground. I'd love to know what that was all about, because the whole thing seemed somewhat symbolic.

So I think most of us supported the Endy Chavez acquisition and the decision to give him a lot of playing time. Still, remember how often people used to complain about his bat? Notice how there haven't been many bat-related complaints about Ryan Langerhans? Through 62 plate appearances, Langerhans has hit .235/.349/.412, and - in case this was flying under your radar - he's drawn ten walks. Ten walks ties him with Yuniesky Betancourt in one-fourth the playing time. When you have a guy who can do that with the stick and then also do an admirable job playing center or a corner...Langerhans was never sold as a long-term addition, and even now no one's really talking about him as part of anything but the 2009 stretch run, but with a couple years left of team control, he's as good an option as anyone to keep around as a fourth OF behind Michael Saunders. To this day I can't believe we got him for nothing. No matter how much I say about Langerhans, I feel like I still need to say more. Is that weird?

David Aardsma might've looked the best he's looked all season. He only needed 11 pitches to pick up a pop and two strikeouts, and the 82% strike rate was his second-best on the year. He was both efficient and difficult to hit, as Anderson and Inge each whiffed on three pitches. Cherish this appearance, for seldom does Aardsma go a game without causing an entire fan base to nervously fidget with a pencil. Aardsma has a weird way of dominating. Observe the following two statistics:

O-Swing%: 132nd out of 140 relievers with 30+ innings
Z-Contact%: 7th out of 140

David Aardsma doesn't get a lot of hitters to go fishing. Only seven qualified relievers have done it less. But he makes up for that by being one of the most unhittable relievers in baseball when he throws in the zone. I can't necessarily explain why that is, considering Mark Lowe throws really hard too and doesn't generate nearly as many swinging strikes with his fastball, but just because I don't know the Why doesn't invalidate the What, and David Aardsma's strikes have clearly just been really really tough. That's neat. Also neat is that he threw Brandon Inge a couple sliders. That probably sucked.

Griffey went 0-4 and his season OPS is down to .705. Larry Stone touched on this in the morning, and you should all go read his blog post if you haven't already, but you have to wonder how much longer the M's will put up with having Junior come more and more undone in the cleanup slot. Not that we're overflowing with desirable alternatives, but when Griffey's not hitting, it does us no good to give him more at bats. This is the delicate situation that so many people feared when Griffey first agreed to come back. What do you do when you can't bench an underperforming bat in the middle of a playoff race? I'm not sure how Wakamatsu ever gets any sleep. This whole situation would be made more navigable by Griffey heating up or, less awesomely, the Mariners falling apart.

Remember - 10:05am start time tomorrow.