SB Nation - Aaron Heilman

Guess The 40-Man Roster Additions

Al — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:15:48 -0000

10:59 pm CST tonight is the deadline for teams to fill out their 40-man rosters with players they want to protect from the Rule 5 draft next month.

With the trade of Aaron Heilman yesterday, the Cubs' 40-man roster stands at 33 players -- so they've got plenty of room to add players they want to protect. This article from the Atlanta Braves website gives some details on how this process works and also about some other upcoming deadlines.

The number of players added by tonight may also give us a clue as to upcoming trades or free-agent signings -- if the Cubs don't fill out the roster to the full 40-man limit, it may presage some acquisitions.

Post your guesses as to who the Cubs might add to the 40-man roster (or who -- cough Neal Cotts cough -- might be removed). Once the Cubs post the full list, I'll update this post, either later today or tomorrow.

UPDATE: From the press release today:

The Chicago Cubs today added five players to the 40-man roster, including left-handed pitcher John Gaub, right-handed pitchers Rafael Dolis and Blake Parker, catcher Welington Castillo and outfielder James Adduci. Chicago's 40-man roster now stands at 38.

Gaub and Parker are no surprise, as they were in the Arizona Fall League and expected to be in the mix for the 2010 bullpen. There are two open spots; this could portend a trade, a free-agent signing or possibly a Rule 5 pick the Cubs have their eyes on. Stay tuned.

Cubs Trade Aaron Heilman To Diamondbacks; Also Re-Sign John Grabow

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 02:42:38 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

The Cubs handed a $7 million dollar contract to John Grabow, who has been worth $5.3 million dollars over his career. They later traded Aaron Heilman to Arizona for a pair of prospects.

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On the eve of Free Agency, the Cubs made a pair of moves involving relief pitchers.

First, the Cubs re-signed LHP John Grabow to a two-year contract reportedly worth $7-7.5 million dollars. If you're asking yourself why they would spend that much money on a player who has accumulated -0.1 WAR over the past three seasons, then you're in the right place.

Grabow is a serviceable relief pitcher, but he is nothing special. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and like a lot of other relievers, he mixes in sliders and change-ups. His change-up has proven to be a plus pitch, but overall he doesn't generate a lot of swings and misses (8.1 swstr% in 2009).

Results wise, Grabow has benefited from a shiny ERA, and that's probably why he got the contract he did. In 2008, he posted an ERA of 2.84 for the Pirates and followed that up with a combined 3.36 for Pittsburgh and Chicago in 2009. Advanced metrics, however, see past the ERA screen and rate Grabow about average. His FIP in 2008 was 4.54 and only slightly better in 2009 at 4.20. That's not terrible, but I'm not giving him $7 million dollars over two seasons to basically be replacement level--especially not the day before the market is flooded with cheaper, and in many cases better, options.

The difference in FIP and ERA looks to come from high walk rates. For his career, Grabow has a BB/9 of 4.15. This past season, that rate was a whopping 4.98, while he only struck out 7.09 batters per nine. He can thank a friendly BABIP of .279 (.251 in 2008), and a begging-to-be-regressed HR/FB% of 5.7 in 2009 (nearly half of his career average) for the stellar ERA numbers. Unlike most lefty relievers, Grabow has shown the ability to get out right handed batters, but for a guy who has been worth just $5.3 million dollars since 2003, it's just silly to hand him $7 million dollars.

The other move for the Cubs involved trading away another reliever, Aaron Heilman, to the Diamondbacks for two prospects. Heilman, like Grabow, was merely serviceable out of the Cubs bullpen in 2009, and he remains unspectacular. His 4.37 FIP was slightly above his career average of 4.13. Nothing in his BABIP or batted ball rates would suggest fluke, so it would seem his 2009 season is pretty indicative of what to expect going forward. He made $1.6 million in 2009 and is arbitration eligible for the final time. Given the mediocre season, he should see a marginal pay raise, which led some to believe he would be non-tendered. Although he has starting experience, he hasn't started a major league game since 2005, and reports are that Arizona sees him as a reliever.

In return for Heilman's services, the Cubs will receive LHP Scott Maine and 1B Ryne White. Besides sharing a first name with a Cubs legend, Ryne White doesn't look like much of a prospect. Drafted in the fourth round of the 2008 draft out of Purdue, White had mixed results in his first full pro season. Spending the entire season at A+ (Visalia) level, he showed a good eye, walking 13.5% of the time while striking out 20.8%. The favorable walk rate helped push his OBP over the .370 mark, however, he showed little power in the process. A "stocky" player in frame (5-10, 205ish), he hit just 25 XBH in nearly 500 plate appearances and slugged just .356 on the season with an ISO of .091. A left handed batter, he struggled against LHP and looks more like a platoon player going forward.

The other player headed to the windy city is 24 year-old lefty, Scott Maine. Drafted by the D-Backs in 2006, Maine looks like he could be a sleeper candidate for a bullpen spot as early as the 2010 season. A side-armer, Maine throws in the mid 90s, and not surprisingly gets his fair share of ground balls. After posting a 2.88 FIP in 47.1 innings at AA, he was briefly promoted to AAA where he put up an impressive 2.59 FIP, albeit in just 14.2 innings. He has struck out more than a batter per inning in his career, and seems to have a good handle on the long ball. That said, walks are a slight issue. If nothing else, Maine is a cheap, controllable asset which is something that can't be said for Heilman or Grabow.

Diamondbacks acquire Aaron Heilman

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 02:20:18 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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The Diamondbacks have acquired right hander Aaron Heilman from the Cubs in exchange for two minor leaguers. Heilman, an arbitration eligible, likely would have been non-tendered if a trade could not be worked out.

The two minor leaguers, Scott Maine and Ryne White, are older prospects but could see time in Wrigley. Of the two, Maine probably has a better chance considering he is a reliever in an organization that is in need of bullpen help. If he plays well, he could find himself pitching in the big leagues.

Last season, Maine posted a 2.90 ERA in 48 appearances between AA and AAA, but had a 1.47 WHIP. He did havean impressive K/9 rate of 10.0, which is very good for a reliever.

White has not found his power since being drafted last year, a change of scenery could benefit the 23-year old.

Heilman gives the Diamondbacks a veteran arm in the bullpen, something that they missed last season.

Cubs Trade Aaron Heilman To Diamondbacks

Al — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:45:23 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

No scenes like this will be seen in 2010. Aaron Heilman is headed to Arizona.

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With all apologies due to BCB reader brian custer, a close friend of Aaron Heilman, he'll have to head to Phoenix to see his buddy pitch in 2010 -- the Cubs sent Heilman to the Diamondbacks today for two minor leaguers.

Personally, I'm happy about this -- Heilman did pitch a little better in September, which probably increased his trade value. This means it was a good thing that Jim Hendry didn't let him go for just the waiver price in August; at least a couple of minor leaguers will return. This also gives Esmailin Caridad and Justin Berg a better shot at making the 2010 bullpen; I like both those guys.

Details from the press release, after the jump.

The Chicago Cubs today acquired left-handed pitcher Scott Maine and first baseman Ryne White from the Arizona Diamondbacks for right-handed pitcher Aaron Heilman. White is a native of Chicago and is a 2005 graduate of St. Rita of Cascia High School.

Maine, 24, combined to go 4-5 with seven saves and a 2.90 ERA (20 ER/62.0 IP) in 48 relief appearances between Double-A Mobile and Triple-A Reno in 2009, reaching Triple-A in only his third professional season. The southpaw struck out 61 batters and issued 22 walks in 62.0 innings pitched between the stops, an average of nearly one strikeout per inning and 3.2 walks per nine innings. He allowed only two home runs in 62.0 innings pitched. Maine last month also made a pair of appearances for the Scottsdale Scorpions in the Arizona Fall League, allowing three runs in 1.2 innings.

Drafted by the Diamondbacks in the sixth round of the 2007 Draft, Maine is 8-7 with 13 saves and a 3.29 ERA (44 ER/120.1 IP) in 88 relief appearances covering three professional seasons. The six-foot-three, 195-pounder pitched for three seasons at the University of Miami before joining the Diamondbacks organization.

White, 23, batted .266 (111-for-418) with 18 doubles, six home runs, 52 RBI, 65 walks and a .371 on-base percentage in 116 games for Single-A Visalia last season. He was especially strong against right-handed pitching, batting .298 (78-for-262) with a .405 on-base percentage compared to a .212 (33-for-156) mark and a .313 on-base percentage vs. left-handed pitching. He is a career .275 hitter (194-for-705) with 13 home runs, 103 RBI and a .366 on-base percentage in 186 professional games the last two seasons.

After graduating from St. Rita of Cascia, White attended Purdue University and was a 2007 Big Ten Conference All-Star after batting .452 (90-for-199) with a .521 on-base percentage in 53 games for the Boilermakers. The five-foot-11, 205-pounder was selected by the Diamondbacks in the fourth round of the 2008 Draft.

DBacks acquire Aaron Heilman

Zephon — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:42:47 -0000

According to MLBtraderumors and SI.com, the Diamondbacks have acquired Aaron Heilman.

Thanks to emilylovesthedbacks for spotting this on twitter, more info to come.

[Updated] The deal sees the Cubs getting a pair of prospects, in left-handed reliever Scott Maine and infielder Ryne White. Said Josh Byrnes, "Aaron has been a successful, durable reliever who will add experience and stability to our bullpen." The right-hander is 31, and had a 4.11 ERA in 72.1 innings for the Cubs in 2009.

(Update) Credit also goes to Counsellmember, who also mentioned this in the Lincecum Cy Young post.

Maine, 24, was the D-backs sixth-round selection in the 2007 First-Year Player Draft. In 2009, he went a combined 4-5 with 7 saves and a 2.90 ERA (20 ER in 62.0 IP) in 48 relief appearances at Double-A Mobile and Triple-A Reno. Over parts of three seasons in the D-backs farm system, he went 8-7 with 13 saves and a 3.29 ERA (44 ER in 120.1 IP) in 88 relief outings. White, 23, was the D-backs fourth-round selection in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft. In 2009, he hit .266 (111-for-418) with 18 doubles, 1 triple, 6 home runs and 52 RBI in 116 games for Single-A Visalia. Over parts of two season in Arizona’s minor league system, he hit .275 (194-for-705) with 37 doubles, 2 triples, 13 home runs and 103 RBI in 186 games.

Interestingly, the official press release is careful to mention Heilman's stats as a starter, even though he hasn't been one for the past four seasons. His agent told the New York Daily News in November last year: "The object the entire time has never been to get out of New York. The object is to get out of the bullpen. The most success he's ever had as a pitcher has been as a starting pitcher. He was drafted by the Mets as a starting pitcher." That didn't happen after his trade to Chicago, and one wonders if it's something the team might try here? He earned $1.625m in 2009, so would be a cheap enough member of the rotation if so. Of course, the question of whether he can be a starter is a huge one.

But even if not, he should be an innings-eater in the bullpen. Among "pure" relievers, no-one has pitched more innings over the past four seasonss than Heilman. Interestingly, second on the list is another name we might recognize, Jon Rauch, who was born less than two months before Heilman in 1979. One thing I note is that Heilman's ERA+ over that time (109) doesn't quite seem to mesh with his opponent's OPS: he has held hitters to a decent line of .241/.322/.378. If you look at the other relievers in the chart linked above, that kind of OPS tends to result in better ERA numbers.

xFIP has Heilman at 4.15 last year, which is pretty close to his actual ERA. His groundball numbers are a little worrying, being below MLB average for the past two seasons, and heading the wrong way too, though this is mitigated by decent infield-fly rates. His K:BB ratio have not been brilliant either, at about 1.8, which is mediocre in the true sense [league average last year for relievers was 1.87]. Overall, I feel somewhat "meh" about the deal: I tend to feel it gives the bullpen more depth, without really improving the quality enormously. However, about a quarter of his appearances involved him going more than one inning, and about 30% were on zero days rest, so he may help relieve our relievers, at it were.

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

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Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

2009-10 Do-It-Yourself Offseason Trade/Free Agent Post

Al — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 14:01:23 -0000

More photos » by Mark Avery - AP

Some guy named Brian Roberts. Ever heard of him? Me, either.

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This morning, wrote that the Cubs are interested in acquiring . Cubs GM Jim Hendry . Meanwhile, Hendry said that Milton Bradley would be traded to the . Hendry also said that Rich Harden , and that Carlos Zambrano . Former Cub Mark DeRosa while Bradley was offered to the . The Cubs tried to get the to take Aaron Miles' contract, but they refused because . In the upcoming Rule 5 draft, the Cubs are going to select . The Cubs' plans for Sam Fuld in 2010 include Brian Roberts was located and had this comment on his possible trade to the Cubs: Finally, manager Lou Piniella's comments about the rumors included:

Cubs, Gorzelanny Lose Ugly To Diamondbacks, 12-3

Al — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 22:05:49 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

"Oh, brother," says Gorz, "I should have asked to start last night."

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If you missed the FanShot I posted, the Cubs announced this afternoon the policy for refunds for yesterday's rainout:

All paid tickets for the Oct. 1 game are eligible for a refund. Refunds are available by sending the tickets to the Wrigley Field Ticket Office at 1060 West Addison Street, Chicago, IL, 60613. All refunds must be requested before Dec. 31, 2009. Tickets will not be eligible for exchange for 2010 or any future seasons.

Refunds will be made by check. Please allow four weeks for delivery. The original purchaser of the ticket or tickets will receive a refund to his/her credit card instead of a check if that was the original method of payment.

Also, word around the ballpark today was that the reason the umpires waited so long to call last night's game was some sort of edict that had come to teams from the MLB offices that they wanted "all games" to be played this season if at all possible. Only a call directly from Bud Selig finally got the game to be cancelled.

That's about the only good news I can bring you from Wrigley Field today; certainly, the Cubs' depressing 12-3 loss to the Diamondbacks didn't have any. Tom Gorzelanny got hit, in fine Chicago fashion, early and often; Chris Young, who seems to have hit about half of his career homers against the Cubs (in reality, only five of 70), smashed a ball that the wind carried onto Waveland with two runners on in the first inning. By the time Rusty Ryal hit a three-run double off Gorzelanny in the fourth, it was 7-0 and if the umpires or the MLB offices had had any sympathy for the (approximately) 15,000 who showed up today (tickets sold: 33,786), they'd have called it after the fifth inning with the score still 7-0 and the Cubs with only three singles.

Instead, a parade of five Cub relievers gave the visitors from Arizona (who had some very chilly-looking fans wearing their garb walking around outside Wrigley this morning) five more runs. Only Justin Berg, who threw two very nice innings, and John Grabow, who struck out two in a scoreless frame of his own, pitched well. I can't imagine we'll see Jeff Stevens back next year -- he got hit hard -- nor should David Patton, a waste of a roster spot, return in 2010. Aaron Heilman, who had actually gotten his season ERA under 4 (3.97) before today's game, gave up a HR to Eric Byrnes, his second of the game, a two-run shot, and Heilman's (perhaps) farewell to Cubs fans shows him with a season ERA of 4.16. I like Berg, incidentally, a lot, and I think he will be a significant contributor to the 2010 bullpen in middle relief.

The Cubs managed three consolation runs off Billy Buckner and reliever Blaine Boyer in the seventh, but that was all on a day when some off-and-on showers that didn't even show up on radar screens dotted the ballpark. It seemed a fitting way to say farewell to a rainy season. Rain may dot the area tomorrow, so be prepared for another postponement. It'd somehow feel appropriate.

Cubs Again Rained Out Against Pirates

Al — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 12:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

This has been the rainiest season in more than 20 years.

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Maybe the Cubs should forget about the fancy weather service to which they subscribe and just listen to third base coach Mike Quade:

"It doesn't look good on the radar," manager Lou Piniella said beforehand. "(Third base coach) Mike Quade does a good job with radars, and this thing is socked in pretty good."

Had they simply observed conditions, though, they could have played five innings last night and avoided the full refunds they're going to have to give anyone who had bought a ticket for last night's rainout. It rained yesterday starting about 3:30 in the afternoon, and continued until about 6:15, at which time it let up, they pulled the tarp off the field, and began play on time. A light mist was falling, and gusty winds started to kick up, which made Lou's professed desire to see Jeff Samardzija pitch one more time this year rather useless. Samardzija gave up three runs in the first inning, but Lastings Milledge's two-run homer would have been a routine fly ball on most nights at Wrigley; the howling breeze blew Milledge's ball into the first row of the left-field bleachers.

When the rain got harder the umpires held up play. What you don't know and may not have seen on TV, if you were watching, was that the hard rain lasted about five minutes and then let up again for about half an hour -- during which time they could probably have played through the fifth inning and avoided all the refunds.

About 8,000 people showed up last night in the conditions reminiscent of the last time the Pirates were in town -- a hard rain for a few minutes, then enough time to play. The postponement was the fifth of the season for the Cubs, the most since 1986. This one, obviously, will be cancelled and not made up.

Why did the Cubs wait nearly 2 1/2 hours before finally calling the game? Look at it this way. According to Biz of Baseball, the average ticket price for Cubs games in 2009 is $47.75 (third highest in the major leagues behind the Yankees and Red Sox, incidentally). Assume that approximately 33,000 tickets were sold for last night's game -- a fairly safe assumption, since that was the announced paid attendance for Wednesday night's game. That would make the gross ticket revenue from Thursday night (approximately) $1,575,750. That ticket revenue alone would be nearly enough to cover Aaron Heilman's $1,625,000 contract (number from Cot's Baseball Contracts). Now they'll have to refund all that money and pay Heilman some other way.

I kid. A little. Years ago, on a day like yesterday, even without modern "Super Doppler Radar", management would have called the game three hours before game time and not even opened the doors. There's too much money involved now to do that, for better or for worse. The forecast for today and tomorrow isn't much better. Seems somehow an appropriate way to end this drip of a season. Today's pregame thread will be up at 11:30 am CDT.

Ten Lessons Jim Hendry Needs To Learn From The 2009 Season

Al — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 13:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Example of a player Jim Hendry should not sign to an overpriced, multiyear contract.

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I suppose this post could have waited till next week, but once again we are faced with more than 48 hours between games -- for the last time in 2009 -- and so I thought I'd start some discussion this morning with these things that I think were done poorly by Cubs GM Jim Hendry since the end of the 2008 season.

Hendry got a three-year contract extension (through the 2012 season) after last year's successful regular season, with the hope that 2009 would be even better. It didn't work out that way; Hendry had about as bad an offseason last year as any GM in recent memory, but with new ownership poised to take over, it isn't the right time to blow everything up and start over. Hendry will be given at least one more year to get things back on the track we thought the Cubs were on during their two-year run as NL Central champions in 2007 and 2008.

Some of the problems with the 2009 Cubs were not Hendry's fault and many of them were beyond his control. It's not Hendry's fault that Aramis Ramirez dislocated his shoulder four weeks into the season and missed a total of 75 games (through yesterday). A-Ram produced above his usual level (.906 OPS, compared to his career level of .847) and I think we all agree that the Cubs missed his production in the two months he was out from mid-May to mid-July, not to mention that he wasn't at full strength on his return. To have produced the way he did after the All-Star break -- without complaining -- is a credit to Ramirez's work ethic and ability. It's not Hendry's fault that Alfonso Soriano played most of the year injured, though he perhaps could have insisted harder that Soriano have arthroscopic surgery in June, and maybe he'd have been ready in September. It's not Hendry's fault that all the Opening Day rotation starters spent time on the disabled list, forcing the Cubs to have 21 starts made by guys (Sean Marshall, Kevin Hart, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Samardzija) whose performance can best be called "uneven". (The Cubs were 9-12 in those 21 games.)

Credit where credit is due: give Jim credit for recognizing that Randy Wells could help the team as a starter, though I don't think anyone could have guessed he'd be as good as he has been. Credit for giving Koyie Hill the backup catcher job; he's been very good in that role. And credit for getting John Grabow and Gorzelanny for, essentially, nothing; Grabow will likely be retained as a key part of the 2010 bullpen and Gorzelanny, though his performance has been up and down, does have talent and will be in the mix for the 2010 rotation.

With that in mind, below the fold you'll find ten ideas Hendry must internalize and go by as he builds a roster for 2010. (Not necessarily in priority order.)

1. Stop fixing "problems" that do not exist. I think this is one we can all agree on; the troubles with the 2009 Cubs began with the decision made at the organizational meetings last fall that "we're not lefthanded enough", a mantra particularly of Lou Piniella's, due to the Dodgers' RHP-centric pitching staff in the 2008 NLDS. The Cubs didn't lose that series because of a lack of LH batters, but since Lou (and the rest of the staff) thought that was the reason, they went out of their way to identify a "lefthanded, middle-of-the-order bat" that they could insert behind Derrek Lee and ahead of Ramirez. We are all familiar with the expensive disaster that produced so I won't rehash it here. I caution Hendry about this because they are about to do the same thing -- fix a nonexistent problem. "We need a speedy leadoff man", goes the managerial mantra. Well, no, Lou, you don't. A leadoff man's primary job is to get on base. You already have someone who can lead off and do that -- Kosuke Fukudome, who ranks 8th in the NL in walks, despite having almost 100 fewer plate appearances than the leader (Albert Pujols). The Cubs are 22-13 with Fukudome leading off this year (that's a 101-win pace for a full season). The last time Hendry went after this type of player, he traded three useful minor leaguers for Juan Pierre. Jim -- do not get sucked into this trap again.

2. Stop bidding against yourself for players. The first argument against this, you might think, is "Jason Marquis", but Marquis did what he was asked to do -- if the Cubs had kept him this year and he had produced the way he did in Colorado, the Cubs would have gotten fine 4th or 5th starter value for the $7 million a year average per year over the life of Marquis' contract. True, Hendry could have likely had Marquis for less, since no one else had expressed interest at the time. And you can't make the argument "Alfonso Soriano" about this, either, because Soriano had been offered six-plus years by the Phillies and seven by the Angels; the Cubs were determined at the time to make a statement in the free agent market. Soriano was the top free agent after 2006, and yes, the Cubs overpaid to get him. He may still be healthy and productive enough to be worth the deal, at least for the next 2-3 years. (Heaven help the Cubs in years 7 and 8, though.) No, what I'm talking about is paying $30 million for three years' worth of the iffy Milton Bradley when absolutely no other team was even after Bradley, much less offering three years. Or giving a two-year contract to Aaron Miles for any amount of money, when we now know there was at least one option (Andres Blanco) right in the Cubs' own farm system who could have done a better job for the league minimum. Advice to Jim: when you're thinking about doing this, don't. Just don't.

3. Stop giving out contracts that are longer than they need to be. Related to the last point, there was no need to give Marquis a three-year deal; two plus a mutual option would have likely done it, and then if the Cubs really did want to deal him last year, they could have arranged for the other team to pick up the option (if that team wanted him badly enough) or simply decline the option and let him go to free agency. This is particularly true in the case of Marquis; the return for him (Luis Vizcaino) was worthless, because the Cubs wound up dumping him and eating the contract. The same thing applies to the Miles and Bradley deals.

4. Stop trading for guys you think are good because you liked them five years ago, or are fond of their college coach. You don't have to guess who I'm talking about here; his name is Aaron Heilman. (And several years ago, his name was Michael Barrett.) It's great for a GM to be loyal to his players, and Hendry is someone a lot of MLB players want to play for, for this very reason. But any Mets fan could have told Hendry that Heilman had lost whatever command he had last year -- you should have heard the booing for Heilman when he came in at Citi Field, louder than I think I've ever heard for any returning former player -- and though Heilman has been better the last six weeks, he still was not worth losing Felix Pie (Pie, though he went to Baltimore, essentially was part of this deal because Garrett Olson, who was acquired for Pie, was part of the deal to the Mariners for Heilman). And really, Jim, isn't it time to stop the Notre Dame-Wrigley Express? As far as I can tell, there are four active major leaguers who went to ND: Heilman, Samardzija, Craig Counsell and Brad Lidge. All of those guys have issues. Enough already.

5. Stop handing out one-year renewal deals to players like candy. Chad Gaudin didn't throw very well and had a noted off-field incident in 2008. He didn't figure to play a major role in the 2009 rotation or bullpen, yet the Cubs signed him to a $2 million deal in December to avoid arbitration. Then he stunk it up in spring training, forcing the Cubs to simply release him and eat the contract; the Padres and Yankees later got replacement-level production for the league minimum. The Cubs could have gotten this sort of production out of Justin Berg or Esmailin Caridad, as it turned out. Gaudin should have been non-tendered in December.

6. Don't waste half a year's roster spot on a Rule 5 pick that your manager isn't going to use. Maybe David Patton would have pitched better if Lou Piniella had actually used him more than once every five games. We'll never know, obviously, but Lou essentially wasted a roster spot by relegating Patton to pitching in blowouts or in long extra-inning games. The Cubs could have used an extra bench player -- since Aaron Miles was useless -- because Lou was working with what was for all practical purposes an 11-man pitching staff. Lou and Jim deserve equal blame for this one -- and I hate to say it, but BCB poster BLou was right about this one. At this point, maybe it's best for the Cubs to stay out of the Rule 5 draft for a while.

7. Do more careful evaluations of your prospects and young players to maximize their value, whether it be in the major league lineup or in trades. It's clear now that the entire organization was split on Felix Pie's progress. Two years ago, his trade value would have been a lot higher than "Garrett Olson", and of course, now it's probably far higher than that again. Hendry sold on Pie at the lowest possible point, and he and Lou together dragged down a former top prospect's trade value (they did the same with Rich Hill, who could have been dealt after the 2007 season for a pretty good return, although few would have suggested it after Hill put together such a good season). This is another reason why it's silly to have played Bobby Scales in left field for even one game. Scales is a great story and maybe he's a 25th guy on someone's roster next year -- but his trade value is close to zero. Jake Fox, on the other hand, might either be a useful spare part for the 2010 Cubs or might have some trade value, but scouts aren't going to see it if he sits on the bench, Lou. This is where a GM has to have some input with his manager, not simply let the manager dictate the roster. In general, GM's shouldn't be making out lineups -- but Hendry, in this case, could have let Lou know that Fox should have been playing (and Fox should have also been playing 3B from the day after A-Ram went down, too).

8. Don't automatically think that you have to sign expensive free agents to get better. Last offseason, rather than sign Milton Bradley, the Cubs could have approached the White Sox for Jermaine Dye. Dye could have been available by trade; at the time it appeared the White Sox were trying to dump contracts. In fact, I wrote about this possibility last November. Dye didn't have a great year, but he was at least as good as Bradley without the baggage, and with Dye having a $12 million mutual option that will almost certainly be declined by the White Sox, he might be available for not too much money and years (see points 2 and 3). There may be other players available like this -- and, in fact, Hendry almost has to use this route to be able to move Bradley's contract. Magglio Ordonez is almost certain to be on the block, and though he had a terrible season, it's possible he could rebound and he's a lifetime .308/.389/.513 hitter in Wrigley Field (relatively small sample size of 90 PA). NOTE! Do not assume that because I mentioned Ordonez, he is the ONLY player I'd go after for such a deal. He's only one example. Another such player is Luke Scott, who would have looked pretty good in a Cubs uniform in 2009, and who is likely headed for a hefty raise in arbitration. Maybe the Cubs can do that if they can trade Bradley elsewhere. The point of all this to Jim Hendry is: get creative, the way you did when you pulled off the Nomar Garciaparra deal in 2004.

9. Get "good clubhouse guys". I mean, this should be a no-brainer. Any Cubs fan who's been around even for ten years knows that the 2003 Cubs, managed by a player's manager, Dusty Baker, succeeded in part because they had strong clubhouse leaders, Eric Karros and Damian Miller. Miller and Karros were sent packing before 2004, and the 2004 Cubs, despite having more talent and ability than the 2003 version, collapsed in the final week. The acrimony there was visible in public, with players calling the press box to bitch, along with some high-profile public trouble between the team and its broadcasters. I'm not saying those were the only reasons for the success or failure of those two teams, but they clearly did have some impact, particularly with a players' manager like Baker who pretty much lets the clubhouse run itself. If there are no strong player-leaders, such a clubhouse is an "inmates running the asylum" situation and the results are predictable. Similarly, the Cubs lost strong player-leaders Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood after 2008 and added one player who reportedly was not a good clubhouse presence. NOTE! I am NOT saying that the Cubs must go out and reacquire DeRosa and Wood. However, I am saying that I believe all successful teams have players like this in their clubhouse. Hendry needs to identify some such players who can both do this and be productive in the lineup, and acquire a couple of them. Without trying to ignite the stats debate again, I believe having guys like this does matter. (Of course, they should also be good players -- that goes without saying.)

10. Think outside the box. Jim Hendry did this when he managed to dump an unproductive Todd Hundley on the Dodgers and get back two useful players in Mark Grudzielanek and Karros, without whom the Cubs might not have won the division in 2003. He did it again in 2004 when he engineered the four-team trade that got Nomar to the North Side. He needs to be creative in his thinking again this year. Don't fall prey to the "this is what's wrong with us and we are going to go fix that no matter what it costs" thinking that helped ruin the 2009 Cubs. Be ahead of the curve; that's what helped the Cardinals do so well this year. Also, this could apply to the idea that Hendry might be able to find solutions just by looking in his own system for next year (say, Andres Blanco, Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad) rather than scouring the waiver wire for someone else's discards (as he did this year with the Aaron's).

There may be more lessons than just these ten, but going by these simple precepts might help Jim Hendry build a 2010 Cubs team that will once again be the favorite to win the NL Central -- and this time, actually do it.