SB Nation - Billy Wagner

Braves Re-Acquire Jeff Francoeur... in the form of Melky Cabrera

gondeee — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 16:32:36 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

For better or worse, Melky Cabrera is now a member of the Atlanta Braves.

This is going to be a trade that's talked about for some time, along with the moves the Braves have made over the past year. If there is one constant in the moves the Braves have made in the past year, it is all about trimming money from the payroll.

In today's deal the Braves sent Javier Vazquez and his one-year $11.5 million salary to the Yankees along with Boone Logan and his $1.5 million likely arbitration figure. In return they get a rookie left-handed pitcher in Mike Dunn, an A-ball prospect in Arodys Vizcaino (two no-cost players), and outfielder Melky Cabrera, who will likely make around $3 million in arbitration. Ryan Church was scheduled to make around $4 million in arbitration, but by most accounts he's a better player than Cabrera. He's certainly not as highly thought of, but when healthy he hits for much more power than Cabrera likely ever will.

This begs the question, "did we trade away Jeff Francoeur (.743 career OPS) last year to acquire the better Ryan Church (.787 career OPS), only to release Church, and trade for Melky Cabrera (.716 career OPS), who is likely not as good as Francoeur?" Seems to me that the Braves end up on the short end of that outcome. Of course Cabrera is probably still "projectable" as a major leaguer, but how long did we say that about Francoeur?

There are two ways in which this trade will look good. First is in the money we will save and have available to potentially get a free agent bat that we've been needing. A rough total of the Braves salaries for next season currently comes to around $80 million (we only have one arbitration eligible player left, that's Peter Moylan). That would leave us with around $15 million to spend on a big bat... a nice sum, which should get us a good bat. The second way this trade will look good is if Arodys Vizcaino pulls his own version of Neftali Feliz in two or three years. We could also use him to acquire that big bat via trade, that would be an alternate way in which the trade would look good.

As it stands now, the Braves pattern the past year has been to strip salary. Kelly Johnson and Ryan Church were non-tendered, instead of being paid around $4 million a piece. Boone Logan was swapped for the cheaper Mike Dunn. Tim Hudson was re-signed at a more affordable salary than the now-traded Javier Vazquez. Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito will make less than Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez.

All of this salary conservation has led up to this final purge from the books, and now the team must make a move that brings a big bat here, and they should have the salary room to do so. Perhaps with $15 million to spend, they can aim higher than Johnny Damon or Xavier Nady, and zero in on Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. For some fans, that's the only way the team will win them back after another tumultuous off-season of questionable moves.

Small-Payroll Teams Don't Need Jacuzzis

Charlie — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 01:46:05 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Teams like the Pirates--and Reds--can't really afford closers like Francisco Cordero.

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Some odd point-counterpoint from Neal Huntington and Dejan Kovacevic. Huntington:

History has not been kind to teams in markets like Pittsburgh that have invested heavily in a closer. As a result, we will build depth, give ourselves options and see who steps up to take the ball and get the final outs in our close wins.

Kovacevic:

Here again, what do Pittsburgh or anyone's market size have to do with this concept?

If the Reds regret signing Francisco Cordero to close at his huge contract, how is that different than the Mets regretting signing J.J. Putz or Billy Wagner?

Sure, the Mets absorb the loss more easily because of a bigger payroll, but the history is no less kind to the Mets than it is to the Reds. It's still a lousy move on both counts.

Kovacevic gets it right with "Sure, the Mets absorb the loss more easily because of a bigger payroll...", but actually the conversation begins and ends there. Huntington is dead on.

First, and this is a minor point, the Mets didn't sign Putz, they traded for him. As for Wagner, the Mets paid him $10.5 million in 2009--but after they paid their team-controlled players, they also had room to spend $9 million on Francisco Rodriguez, $12 million on Oliver Perez, $12 million on Carlos Delgado, $20 million on Johan Santana, and $20 million on Carlos Beltran. They also paid $6.25 million to Luis Castillo and $6 million to Putz. None of those players were developed by the Mets.

The Reds spent $12 million on Cordero in 2009. After that, they paid $11 million to Aaron Harang, as part of a four-year deal that bought out two option years. They paid $9.5 million to Bronson Arroyo.

That's it. Every other player was either under team control (Brandon Phillips was signed to a long-term deal, but 2009 would have been one of his arbitration years) or cost them less than $5 million. (Thanks to Cot's Contracts for the data for both teams.)

That's almost $100 million in what we might call expensive-player spending for the Mets, and about $30 million for the Reds. It is absolutely clear that a team like the Mets can afford to drop $12 million for 80 innings if it wants to, while a team like the Reds just can't. And if the Reds sign a player to a contract they end up regretting, it hurts them much more than it hurts the Mets. This is really elementary stuff--a doctor can probably afford that jacuzzi, whereas someone like me just can't. Closers are like jacuzzis. I think that's all Huntington was saying.

History won't be kind to recent versions of the Mets. That's true. But to suggest that has much to do with their decisions to spend heavily on closers is strange and confusing. History won't be kind to them because they were expensive, poorly-constructed teams who suffered two straight September collapses before coming completely unglued in 2009. But their decisions to invest big bucks on closers are only small parts of that, probably very small parts. While the Wagner signing in particular wasn't the world's best idea, it was far from the worst--after all, he pitched brilliantly for the Mets for the better part of three years.

The Mets had a jacuzzi in Wagner, and for several years it worked just fine. And if Minaya had bothered to build a bathtub by having some other relievers handy, the loss of the jacuzzi in 2008 wouldn't have caused the Mets to stink so badly. The problem with the house the Mets built was that it didn't have a roof, or even very many functioning appliances. With their payroll, they could have built the roof and the bathtub and the jacuzzi, but they didn't.

The 2009 Mets devoted broad swathes of playing time to non-hitters like Daniel Murphy and Omir Santos and Alex Cora and Brian Schneider and Ryan Church and Cory Sullivan and Wilson Valdez. They had so many injuries, and planned for them so poorly, that were times when their lineup resembled a Triple-A team's. Their rotation was also a complete mess behind Santana, with Perez, Livan Hernandez, Tim Redding and Mike Pelfrey all imploding along the way. However history may treat the Mets, if they'd run the rest of their team well, they could have spent exactly as they did on closers and probably had three straight playoff appearances from 2007 to 2009. Not so for the Reds, who simply can't afford to spend 40% of their expensive-player spending on an 80 inning guy. They need to spend that money on stuff like heating and water, not on a jacuzzi.

By the way, you may be wondering what this has to do with Matt Capps, since Huntington addressed the Capps matter elsewhere in his chat and the beginning of Kovacevic's post was about Capps. The answer is, nothing. While a small-payroll team shouldn't pay a closer $12 million, it can certainly afford to pay $3-4 million in arbitration.

Book Review, Astros Style: Evaluating Baseball's Managers

davoag — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:29:39 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - ASSOCIATED PRESS

Garner is one of five managers of the Astros in Chris Jaffe's new book.

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I have linked to his website before discussing a new way to analyze managers, but Chris Jaffe will soon publish a book based on years of work called Evaluating Baseball's Managers 1876-2008. Chris recently provided me with a couple of excerpts about Houston's five managers that fit the criteria for his book.

You might know Jaffe from his writings over at The Hardball Times. He's spent much of the past year and a half putting together the most comprehesive book on managers that I've ever seen. By our own admittedly shorter conversations about what is important about a manager, it's clear that there is definite interest about this topic around here.

After the jump, I'll give you my impressions on the book's content and conclusions about Leo Durocher, Bill Virdon, Jimy Williams, Art Howe and Phil Garner.

First off, Jaffe sets his book out in part as a reference and in part as pure analysis. Jaffe focuses on the manager as a mover of men, not on the strategy. His book is based on a database set up by SABR member Phil Birnbaum. The full explanation can be found at his blog's FAQ page, but suffice it to say, the database came up with which teams were 'lucky' and which were not. Jaffe took this and ran with it, thinking that the manager influenced luck more than anything. (sound familiar, Cecil Cooper fans?).

I was surprised how many questions this book tended to answer. Better yet, I'm surprised how many questions it answered that I didn't even know I had. For instance, in the section on Bill Virdon, Jaffe talks about how little value Virdon got out of his bullpens. In fact, Virdon got the least value out of his 'pen than any manager in the database. Why is this relevant? Not only is Virdon the Astros' winningest manager in history, it also explains why only three pitchers have more than 100 saves with Houston and how six of the team's top 10 career save leaders played after Virdon left the team.

Now, was this something I had thought about in the past 10 years? Not really. I do remember thinking about how odd it was that BIlly Wagner so easily passed franchise leader Dave Smith as the new leader back in the late 90's, but I didn't get past that wondering. That the Astros didn't have a real closer for most of the club's existence was more a product of the era, right?

Another great note on Phil Garner talked about his reliance on defense and for balls in play. Apparently, Garner scored high on both the offensive and defensive balls in play lists, using good defense to gobble up all those hits and wearing pitchers down with the same. Of course, the downside of this and Garner's eventual undoing is the home run.

Garner's home run differential was the fifth-worst in history. Again, answering questions I didn't even think about before I read this. Garner's tendencies also revealed just as much about the best parts of his time with the Astros as his failures. Good defensive team that put the ball in play (as Garner's did) means that over the course of a season their luck will balance out. This created the great situations with the 2004 and 2005 comebacks while also setting up those late inning home runs to guys like Pujols and Podsednik. Garner as manager isn't the only reason the Astros lost the World Series but after reading Jaffe's breakdown you can certainly see why he was part of the problem.

What Jaffe does with all these guys is highlight why they were good or why they weren't successful. He does an excellent job of it, providing stats to back it up in each manager's capsule, but also backing it up with solid analysis. Bullpen usage, hitting for power, walks, and more are shown as trends for each manager as Jaffe does a good job of describing what kind of team each guy oversaw. It's exactly what history buffs would want and provides the kind of source material that analysts will be using for years. We discussed what makes a good manager and how much influence they really have on a team. I think reading this book will give us a better understanding of how to view Brad Mills and all future Houston managers.

If you're still interested in the book, you can pre-order it here before its release next spring.

Don't Overlook Holes In The Red Sox's Bullpen

Randy Booth — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

Who's going to help set this guy up in 2010?

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While people debate who should play left field for the Red Sox in 2010 (it's a heated discussion if you haven't jumped in on it yet), there are still other problems to be solved.

One is who will play third base if Mike Lowell is traded. Perhaps that is the biggest issue after the left field question mark, but No. 2 is important as well: who's going to be in the bullpen next season?

Sure, talking about bullpen arms isn't sexy like talking about power-hitting left fielders. But it's an important factor in the equation. After all, the effectiveness of the Red Sox's bullpen last season was one of the reasons they made it into the playoffs. The Red Sox's core six relievers -- Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Daniel Bard, Ramon Ramirez and Takashi Saito -- combined for a 3.07 earned run average in 363.1 innings.

Now, however, one of those relievers is gone (Saito), one proved very ineffective toward the end of the season (Delcarmen), one began to crumble underneath his workload (Ramirez) and Billy Wagner, who was a late-season acquisition, is calling Atlanta his new home.

With the Red Sox's current roster, here are the locks for the bullpen:

Jonathan Papelbon, closer
Daniel Bard
Hideki Okajima
Ramon Ramirez
Manny Delcarmen

Let's say the Red Sox go with 12 pitchers on the roster, with seven of those coming in the bullpen. Right now the Sox are looking at two empty bullpen spots. Looking at internal options, who fills the spots?

Scott Atchison
A recent acquisition, Atchison provides more depth. And if the Sox have him on their Opening Day roster, he either a) blew the team away in spring training or b) there's plenty of injuries. The latter is more likely. So, if Atchison is in one of these two spots, we better hope it's because he's fantastic in the spring.

Boof Bonser
Bonser is the most likely candidate as he can both start and relieve. If Bonser is on the Red Sox's Opening Day roster, it will most likely be in a long reliever type role. If the Sox are getting blown out -- or better yet, blowing a team out -- Bonser can come out of the 'pen and pitch some good innings. It will also make for an easy transition if he needs to start any games.

Michael Bowden
Bowden is in an interesting stage right now. He's proven he can play in Triple-A. He's ready for something bigger and better than that, but he hasn't had much success at the Major League level. He also hasn't had a lot of time to prove himself, either. The Red Sox don't have a spot in the starting rotation for him, but he could fill a Bonser-like role if he wants to be a long reliever. The Red Sox could also try and convert him to a reliever if need be. Bowden wants to stick in the bigs; this may be the best way for him to do that.

Fernando Cabrera
Cabrera was quite dominate for the Pawtucket Red Sox in 2009. He struck out nearly one batter per inning while opponents hit just .208 against him. His WHIP was a nifty little 1.12 in 55.1 innings. His callup to Boston, though, didn't go as well. He gave up five runs in 5.1 innings, but he did strike out eight batters. Small sample size doesn't sway in his favor, but the 28 year old still can offer the Sox a decent bullpen arm.

Fabio Castro
Castro is historically a starter, but could see bullpen action -- if the Red Sox get desperate. He doesn't struck out many batters, but he walks a lot. Oh, and he gives up a lot of hits, too. So basically, he's not going to do much for the Sox unless he can figure out those three problems first.

Ramon A. Ramirez
The other Ramon Ramirez. RamRam II has a great history against lefties -- a .218 batting average against in more than 270 innings -- but that might be the only thing he has going for him. He's a decent arm but like Atchison, shouldn't sniff the bullpen unless there are some serious issues already.

Dustin Richardson
Perhaps the sleeper of the group, Richardson made his name in 2009. After a rough 2008 season (he racked up a 6.33 ERA in 106.2 innings of work for Double-A Portland), Richardson came out and made easy work of his competition last season. He struck out 80 in 63.1 innings to start the year in Portland before a promotion to Pawtucket. He worked just 10.2 innings in Pawtucket, but he allowed just two runs and struck out 17. Between Portland and Pawtucket, he held batters to a .191 batting average against. He had a cup of coffee late in the season for the Red Sox (he gave up three hits and a walk in 3.1 innings). Perhaps the impressive 2009 will get Richardson a foot in the door come February.

The names aren't sexy, but they have arms that could potentially work within the Red Sox's bullpen. Of course, these are only internal options. We haven't looked at the external options yet, which don't give off many good vibes either.

What do you think? If you had to choose one of these internal options to be in the Red Sox's bullpen, who would you pick? Would you rather have an experienced pitcher like a Cabrera or Atchison, or a younger arm like Richardson? Should the Sox look in free agency rather than these internal options? Are there any trades you'd like to see the Sox make?

Poll

If you had to choose one internal option for the Red Sox's bullpen, who would it be?

Winter Meetings as Classic Rock

Rev Halofan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 09:59:31 -0000

The Winter meetings see every team show up and do nothing while sportswriters blow hot air and call it smoke signals. Here is my analysis of how each major league team fared at the Winter meetings by comparing them to one of the TOP 100 Classic Rock Songs of all time.

AL WEST

Angels - Led Zeppelin's Kashmir. They already got their ace pitcher in August and can talk of days for which they sit and wait where all will be revealed.

Athletics - the Who: Who Are You - I heard a rumor in 2002 that the way these guys ran their team was going to let them compete with the big boys. Tell me who are you... Who who? Who who?

Rangers - AC/DC's Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap - They get Rich Harden on an incentive deal, Mike Lowell with his salary paid and unload Kevin Millwood. And they are being sold for a lot less than their owner owes the bank.

Mariners - The Beatles: Come Together - It is obvious they have a plan, they got $50 Million to spend, they got Figgy Sideboard, they got hair, down, to their knees, hold you in their Safeco you can feel Ichiro sneeze.

AL CENTRAL

Twins - Rolling Stones' Brown Sugar - How come Gardenhire manages so good? They were quiet at the meetings in obvious preparation for making Joe Mauer rich, at which point you know they will be singing "I said yeah, yeah yeah WHOO!"

Tigers - Led Zeppelin's When the Levee Breaks - Dumped Curtis Granderson in order to rebuild. Got flooded in prospects.

White Sox - Jethro Tull's Aqualung - You might need a similar breathing apparatus to talk as fast and furious as Ozzie Guillen.

Indians - Don McClean's American Pie - nostalgia for the 90s? News of them trading Kelly Shoppach for a PTBNL makes one a bit wistful for the days when this team was a powerhouse...

Royals - Bruce Springsteen's Born to Run - Any song with the line "tramps like us" has to be referring to these underachievers, who showed up in snowy Indianapolis to sign a Cuban defector.

AL EAST

Yankees - Pink Floyd's Money - When you can pay Andy Pettitte $12 Million for one year, you certainly are in the race.

Red Sox - Van Halen's Runnin' With the Devil - No other team in sports defines itself by its main competitor more. The lack of action on the Free Agent front among all teams is the matching up the wallets between John Henry and George.

Rays - Boston's More Than a Feeling - Joe Maddon's club gets quite a bit of respect and when they are tied to a rumored signing everyone pays attention.

Blue Jays - Rolling Stones' You Can't Always Get What You Want - Roy Halladay will bring you some good players, and if you try some time, you just might find... you get what you need.

Orioles - Rolling Stones' Sympathy for the Devil - Peter Angelos used to be the agreed upon worst owner in the sport, but you gotta feel sorry for him with the McCourts, that soccer coach in Arlington and some of these other schmoes...

NL WEST

Giants - Led Zeppelin's Ramble On - Mentioned in every free agent signing possibility and trades galore but it was years ago in days of old when their magic (in a pill) ruled the world, so I guess they'll just keep ramblin' on....

Rockies - KISS' Rock N Roll All Night - If you had their wealth of pitching, you'd be partying at the winter meetings just daring clubs to make you an offer while two strippers in the hot tub were calling you over...

Dodgers - Derek and the Dominos' Layla - They did not even offer arbitration to some good players as the owner's divorce has Frank McCourt on his knees, beggin' darlin' please...

Padres - Rolling Stones' Paint it Black - Bud Black is obviously held in high regard and ... as for the Adrian Gonzalez rumors? I could not foresee this thing happening to you...

Diamondbacks - Van Halen's Jump. A big trade? Headlines? Dumping big prospects for AL maybe arms? Might as well jump. JUMP!

NL CENTRAL

Cardinals - The Doors' Light My Fire - You know that it would be untrue, you know that they would be a liar, if Ken Rosenthal were to tweet "Pujols trade rumors gettin' higher"

Cubs - Guns N Roses: Welcome to the Jungle - Signed Milton Bradley last year and now finding it hard to trade him. If you got the money honey, he will still be your disease... in the jungle...

Brewers - Led Zeppelin's Whole Lotta Love - 3 years for Randy Wolf is "Love" not "Likes a lot"

Astros - Elton John's Funeral for a Friend - I guess we can be happy for them that they still get an invitation to the Winter Meetings...

Reds - Def Leppard's Pour Some Sugar on Me - Dusty Baker can make the worst headache of a managing job sound sweet.

Pirates - Black Sabbath's Paranoid. People think they're insane because they are frowning all the time.

NL EAST

Phillies - Pink Floyd's Shine On You Crazy Diamond - Never a better time to be a Philly or a Phillies fan.

Braves - Cream's Crossroads - They sign Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito and then Rafael Soriano accepts arbitration. Should they just go with possibly the best bullpen in history or trade Soriano, the best of the three relievers?

Marlins - Jimi Hendrix: All Along the Watchtower - They always have a good player or two that you gotta keep your eye on at these meetings.

Mets - The Who: Won't Get Fooled Again. But you know they will. It will be hard to top last offseason's swindle by Bernie Madoff, though.

Nationals - Foghat's Slow Ride. They signed Pudge!!! Saving up for Nationals playoff tickets??? Take it easy.

Braves: Trades First, Then Free Agents

gondeee — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:49:04 -0000

The Braves probably realize that they may have jumped the gun when the signed two free agent relievers in Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito last week, before their own free agents made up their mind about whether they wanted to accept salary arbitration. As most of us already know, Rafael Soriano accepted arbitration and threw the Braves plans for the off-season and the winter meetings into disarray.

Instead of GM Frank Wren only having to move one starting pitcher (likely Derek Lowe), he now needs to move a reliever as well. Soriano has asked to be traded and several teams are in the mix, including the Orioles and Angels, and if money were less of an object, the Astros. It's important for more than one team to be in the fray so that the Braves can drive up the price a bit and get a better return, and possibly a useful piece they can plug in to their roster for 2010.

The urgency to move Soriano has led to the Braves putting other free agent options for position players on the back burner, according to Mark Bowman. This is out of a necessity to clear salary space before committing any more money to players for next season.

While Wren continues to say that the Soriano Surprise will not deter the Braves from their off-season plans, it has certainly slowed those plans until the more immediate situation of trading their former closer concludes. With multiple sources saying we should be able to trade Soriano easily and quickly I certainly hope they are correct. One thing going for us here is that the Braves seldom demand more value in return in a trade than the player they're trading is really worth. This is not the Blue Jays trying to deal Roy Halladay. There is a need for Wren to get Soriano, and to an extent Lowe, traded as soon as possible, so that he can focus on the never ending pursuit of hitting.

[UPDATE: 3PM]

Ken Rosenthal says the Tampa Bay Rays and the Astros are the two teams trying to trade for Soriano. Earlier in the afternoon we learned that the Angels and Orioles were out of the running. The Astros may fall out of contention, as they instead may land Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins.

Jose Valverde Rejects Arbitration Offer- Who Closes Now?

HighLeveragePerformer — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 12:00:32 -0000

by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Adios, amigo.

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The Astros and GM Ed Wade were handed a great piece of news on Monday night, as closer Jose Valverde declined arbitration choosing instead to remain a free agent. Valverde made his intent to test the market in free agency known early on, and despite the extension of an arbitration offer from the Astros, Jose has decided to take the plunge and see if he can parlay his strong recent seasons into a big money free agent contract.

Almost certainly this means the end of his tenure as the last man out the Astros 'pen. While he was certainly a positive contributor, he is a luxury that the organization cannot afford. If nothing else, we can remember Jose Valverde's as a rock of consistent, if not spectacular play, a welcome relief from the often turbulent ninths we saw from Brad Lidge. People jump all over Ed Wade and his penchant for bringing in relievers, often over cost, and rightfully so especially with a team lacking in talent like our Astros have been. At least we can say in Valverde's case that the big name reliever was as good as advertised once he got to town.

Now the question that need be answered is who will step into the vacated closer's position? Rafael Soriano, whom the Astros had reported shown interest in, has accepted the Braves' offer of arbitration, while set up man Mike Gonzalez has chosen to take the opposite route in rejecting the Braves' advances. On the Braves' front, the back end of their bullpen will be full of former and current closers, with Soriano joining Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner after the latter two recently joined Atlanta in free agency. I don't know if Braves' GM Frank Wren anticipated that Soriano would decline arbitration, but he will have a large sum of $ invested in three men who will pitch at most 190 innings combined. That's an almost Astro-like utilization of resources. To the point, Gonzalez will be an option for Ed Wade to check in on. A multi year deal would most likely be what it takes to reign in the man with the awesome windup.

Of course, LaTroy Hawkins is an option, but he has been sought after by more than just the Astros. If anything, I would expect Ed Wade to amp up his charge to sign Hawk to a one year contract for 2010. If I had to place a wager, I believe he will be re-signed and given the opportunity to be our closer. Without great strikeout stuff, Hawkins will have to overcome his lack of a killer fastball to get hitters out. Our budget may necessitate this more than anything else.

Kevin Gregg, Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney are out there, and I hope the Astros do nothing more than kick their tires and pass. J.J. Putz, however, would be an interesting sign, and could probably be had on the cheap after coming off injury and poor performance.

The Astros were given a gift last night. Who knows what can be done with it. A free agent starting pitcher and/or an affordable third base option are more realistic than last week, in terms of ability of the Astros to sign a player or two. In the long term, Bobby Heck has produced a solid draft class from 2009, and if Valverde as expected does not re-sign with the club, two draft choices will come his way. All in all, a good night for the Astros. The next couple days could be even better as a result.

Braves' Soriano Accepts Arbitration

gondeee — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:55:40 -0000

The Atlanta Braves off-season just got a bit more interesting. Reliever Rafael Soriano has decided to accept arbitration and remain with the Braves for 2010, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. Through arbitration, the Braves will likely end up paying Soriano anywhere from $6.5 to $8 million for next season. With $10 million plus already committed to Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, it is likely that the Braves will explore ways to trade Soriano -- something they would need his approval for from now until the middle of June.

With Soriano likely relegated to a setup role in the early innings, he and his agent may be inclined to ask for a trade. In fact this could have been the strategy all along -- to take the guaranteed money and let the Braves do the leg work in finding another team that needs his services.

Fitting his salary into the bullpen certainly seems outside of the budget of the Braves, so if they cannot trade him something else will have to give. This could affect who they tender contracts to next month, as someone like Kelly Johnson may no longer be affordable. They could also choose to trade both Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez to free up salary space, attempting to land a cheaper starting pitching option in return for one.

Soriano also risks being cut in spring training and his salary not being guaranteed. There are some fancy baseball rules behind that (which I'm sure we'll learn in the coming days), but surely he and his agent gave that some thought.

Of course, if the Braves keep Soriano and are able to fit him into their payroll, then the Braves suddenly have the best bullpen in baseball -- a nice commodity for a manager who loves to use his bullpen.

The biggest impact here is how this move will affect the other moves the Braves may be planning. The next couple of days will be interesting, to see if Atlanta makes any trades to free up salary. The Braves other free agent who was offered arbitration, Mike Gonzalez, has apparently declined arbitration.

Red Sox Sign Fabio Castro

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:55:22 -0000

via www.cbc.ca

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It looks like the Sox are taking a depth approach to replacing Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, as they signed yet another reliever in LHP Fabio Castro.

Castro, 24, has a 3.30 ERA over 43.2 innings with the Rangers and Phillies, last pitching in the majors in 2007. Last year, in AAA, Castro managed only a 4.49 ERA with mediocre peripherals. While Castro has made all but 1 major league appearance out of the bullpen, he's spent his last few years starting in the minors.

Castro is likely to join a large group of pitchers trying for a spot in the Sox bullpen in spring training, including Scott Atchison, Robert Manuel, and Dustin RIchardson.

Braves' Kelly Johnson in High Demand

gondeee — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 19:46:09 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

Atlanta Braves second baseman Kelly Johnson is apparently a coveted commodity this off-season.

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The Winter Meetings are most definitely under way. We've already had our first crazy rumor that lasted less than half a day before another team acquired the player in question. Bobby Cox held a press conference at 2pm today, and despite my hopes they did not show it on-line on the MLB channel. Luckily Bill Shanks is there and knows the value of live-tweeting such an event. Among his updates this one stands out:

Cox: clubs knocking on the door for Kelly Johnson

Bobby doesn't usually give up much in the way of trade or free agent info, so for him to say that must mean that regardless of what he says there's still tons of value on KJ. Suddenly the Braves have a ton of tradeable pieces. Here are some other highlights from Shanks' tweeting of the Cox presser:

Cox: we'll give Heywatd a chance

Cox: Braves not in on Bay

Cox: Wags the closer "no matter what"

Cox: Martin Prado could play anywhere

Some of that is very Bobby Coxian, in that it's just simple praise of his players, like the quotes about Martin Prado and Jason Heyward. Of course Billy Wagner will be the closer, he's the veteran and is a much better closer than Soriano or Saito. The price for Jason Bay seems to be going upwards quickly, so I can see why the Braves took themselves out of the running for him early on.

It was mentioned earlier, but until Rafael Soriano makes his decision, the Braves probably won't make any moves. So while there will still be rumors today, don't expect any moves. Soriano's agents arrived this morning and are expected to meet with all interested parties before conferring with Rafael about whether or not to accept arbitration. My guess is that they will receive enough interest to recommend he reject arbitration.