SB Nation - Bengie Molina

While You Were Out: Amazin' Avenue Week In Review (12/6-12/12)

James Kannengieser — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 00:05:41 -0000

A recap of the busy Winter Meetings week:

The Time I Went To The Winter Meetings - Sam starts the week off with some storytelling. Cameos by Omar Minaya, Steve Phillips and Mileycyrustopia.
AAOP: Third Place - Congrats to Schmidtxc for winning 3rd place in the AAOP contest. There were many great plans and it was tough choosing the best.
Why Is It Called The Hot Stove? - For anyone else who didn't know.
Looking Back: Todd Zeile - Alex continues his series about formet Mets on this year's Hall of Fame ballot. Zeile's best years were behind him by the time he joined the Mets, and I secretly hated him for replacing John Olerud, but he had a nice career.
Mets Pursuing Josh Willingham And Juan Rivera? - One of the many rumor discussions that took place this week.
My Dreams Come True: Mets Pursuing 2B Adam Kennedy - Sam and many others were pleased to hear this rumor. If Castillo can be dealt, Kennedy is a solid replacement.
Adam Everett Re-Signs With Tigers - The defensive ace re-upped for one year, $1.5 million.
Hanshin Tigers Get Matt Murton? - This is a player good enough to start on several MLB teams. Good luck, Matt.
Randy Wolf Signs With Brewers - Three years, $30 million it might be a bit much, but Wolf is an above average pitcher who should help that awful Brewers staff.
Things I Would Do If It Meant Not Signing Bengie Molina To A Dumb Contract - Just get it overwith and sign him so we can move on.
AAOP: Second Place - Nice work by MangoMetsFan.
Mets Sign Mike Hessman - A rarity for the Mets, signing a three true outcomes type.
AAOP: First Place - Congrats to Evan_S for his AAOP winning entry.
Cross Rich Harden Off The Wish List - The oft-injured but oft-dominant starter was snagged by the Rangers.
Brandon Lyon Nears Deal With Astros, Bullpen Options Dwindling - Ed Wade strikes again, with the worst contract of the young offseason.
Mets Restructure Henry Blanco's Contract - A look at Blanco's labyrinth contract incentives.
Mets Extend Offers To Bengie Molina And Jason Bay - We might have a Beau Brummell in each corner OF spot.
On Hearing Of Contract Offer To Bengie Molina - Bengie is a muse to all, the Poet Laureate included.
Scott Boras For GM - A lot of people hate on this guy but he's just doing his job. A job he's great at.
A Potentially Bizarre Lineup - Walks at the top of the order, hacks at the bottom.
Who Said It? - Steve Phillips, maybe smarter than we think.
Midnight Poll: Jason Bay vs. Mike Cameron - Taking the pulse of AA readers.
So Long, Putz - Arrivederci, JJ.
Outfielder Valuation And Mike Cameron - Mark provides a nice analysis of positional adjustments and defense, and how they relate to Cameron.
Mets Rumor Mill: Possible Acquisition Tracker - A one stop shop for all Mets-related rumblings.
Why? Mets Sign Elmer Dessens To Minor League Deal - Omar: Why? Uhh, why not!

Washington Nationals Introduce Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez, Eventually.

Ed Chigliak — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 21:11:23 -0000

3 days ago: Washington Nationals senior vice president and general manager Mike Rizzo shakes hands with new catcher Ivan Rodriguez after a news conference announcing the signing of Rodriguez on Friday, Dec. 11, 2009 at Nationals Park in Washington. The 38-year-old catcher agreed this week to a $6 million, two-year contract (AP Photo/Kevin Wolf)

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I have no idea what caused the delay of the Washington Nationals’ press conference this afternoon, in which they were set to introduce their new catcher, free agent signee Pudge Rodriguez, but a 1:00 pm EST starting time became a 2:00 pm EST starting time and at about 10 minutes after 2:00, some might have begun to wonder if Rodriguez had failed his physical, or if Pudge’s agent Scott Boras had discovered that the Mets offered Bengie Molina two years too, and decided to hold out for three from DC...

Then another update arrived...the press conference would begin at 2:30 pm EST. Shortly before 2:30 rolled around the MLB.com feed for the presser closed down, luckily MASNSports.com was streaming live...at least they were playing commercials a few minutes before the re-re-scheduled start...so with three minutes to wait and then scramble to find a feed, it was time to count the seconds...any day now Pudge will be introduced...2:29...2:39...and finally at 2:45 Pudge Rodriguez pulled on the #7 in home white, buttoned his jersey, put the red curly-W cap on his head and introduced himself to the DC Faithful...

"It's an honor for me to be here today. I want to say thanks to the Washington Nationals' organization for giving me the opportunity to be with the Nationals for the next two seasons, and, basically, my goal is just bring my experience into the ballclub, as a baseball player, and be ready to play in the field. I'm a player that I love to win, I love to play hard in the field, and I look forward to my teammates doing the same thing when we play..."

(cont.)....

"I played against (the Nationals) this year when I was with the Astros," Pudge continued, "and there's a lotta good things that we say about this ballclub, it's a team that hits very well, and plays in the field hard 100% of the time, and basically that's what I like to see. I'm a player that I love to play the game hard, 100%, and I'm sure that my new teammates look forward to doing the same thing for the organization and for the team. So, again, I appreciate it, I'm very happy and excited and I can't wait for Spring Training and to be a part of the team. So, thank you.

Asked what it was about the Nationals that attracted Pudge to DC, Rodriguez responded that the Nationals were a team that came to them with the two-year contract he was looking for, "I feel I can play this game for a few, uh, about two or three more years, and basically, you know they came out and they showed interest in (bringing) me to the team, and that was it you know...It's a great team, I love what I saw when I played against them and that's the reason why I decided to come to the Nationals."

Rodriguez says that communication with the Nats' pitchers will be important, "Spring Training is for that, to work with the pitcher. I know that I've never seen, I've never caught them, but at the same time, communication is very important, you know, in Spring Training we want to sit down and first of all, I want to talk to them and see what they like to do, how they like to pitch, and then we go from there. I'm not a difficult catcher, I just try to things very simple for the pitcher, so I just go with what they feel comfortable and we go from there.

Working with Jesus Flores? Are you looking forward to it? "Absolutely. We're all teammates," Rodriguez says, "and the goal is winning games. He's a talented player, hits very well, good catcher, and I'm sure that we're going to talk a lot. He's a guy that, I've talked to him before, he comes to me and says hello to me when we (play) against (each other)...and he's a very nice guy. So I look foward to talk to him, and whatever he needs, I'm here for that, but the most important thing is that we're here to win, we're here for one goal, just to win and have a good season and be in the playoffs in October." (ed. note - "Playoffs?")

Asked about how much he'll play this season, Rodriguez says he's ready to play every day. "I'm a player that can still player every day, and I will play every day, and basically the thing is just, do my best for the club. I know that it's hard for me to play 162 games, that's impossible for a catcher, but as long I'm healthy and I'm feeling great physically, I'll be in the field playing." 70-80 games? "Again, I said, I'm ready to play. I look forward to going to Spring Training and do my job and play the game. I'm a guy that I take care of myself very well, keeping myself in good shape, and I'm going to be in Spring Training in February ready to go. So, those decisions are not in my control. My control is just to go into Spring Training in good shape and be ready mentally and physically to play on an everyday basis."

?'s For The DC Faithful...

• Did Pudge get the memo about "mentoring" Flores, or is he just saying the standard "I'm ready to play every day."

• Did you see Dave from NNN at the press conference?

• Do you think a veteran catcher is better for the Nationals' young staff than another player, like Flores, who's still developing?

• Will Jesus Flores stay healthy and develop quickly enough to avoid being passed by? There are some other decent backstops in the system...

MLB Trade Rumors: Jason Bay to the Mets?

raygu — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:00:28 -0000

by Rob Carr - AP

2 months ago: Boston Red Sox's Jason Bay, right, is congratulated by third base coach DeMarlo Hale (35) after hitting a solo home run against the Baltimore Orioles during the fourth inning of a baseball game, Friday, Sept. 18, 2009, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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SI.com's Jon Heyman reported, via Twitter, yesterday that the Mets are not going to get into the bidding for Matt Holliday, but did make a bid for slugger Jason Bay:

#mets didnt want to get into protracted talks with holliday. also believe bay, as pull hitter with loft, fits citi field OK about 5 hours ago from web
#mets offered #bay 4 years for about $65 million, give or take. they'd probably have to bump it to 5 yrs to get him.

It was also reported that the Mets made an offer to catcher Bengie Molina. The Mets apparently want to sign one of the three biggest free agents in this year's free agent class.

Should the Mets sign both Bay and Molina, they would have a pretty solid lineup:

Jason Bay

Bengie Molina

Jeff Franceour

Daniel Murphy

Bay has never hit at the new Citifield, but as a Pirate, he went 5-15-.303-.382-.576-.957 at the old Shea Stadium. Bay's career home/road splits are a picture of consistency as he has hit .282-.387-.507-.893 at home (PNC Park and Fenway Park) and .278-.366-.532-.898 on the road in his career.

Bay's 2009 season was very productive even though his BA was a low .267. He went 36-119-.267-.384-.537-.921. Bay's BB% (15%), K% (30.5%) and ISO% (.269) were all at or close to career highs for him. Bay benefitted from a 49.1% FB% and a 19.7% HR/FB% in 2009.

Shouild Bay sign with the Mets, I do not see him hitting 30 HRs in 2010, but can see a solid 25-100 season from him assuming the Mets don't experience the numbers of injuries that plagued the team in 2009.

I was trading emails with Fake Teams reader DB11 today, and we agreed that Bay's NL-only league (UBA) auction value could be in the $30-$35 range in 2010 should he sign with the Mets.

Poll

Can Jason Bay hit 30 HRs in 2010 playing his home games at Citifield?

Jason Bay Applesauce - Thole Flees Venezuela, Rule 5 Is A Bust, Halladay To The Phillies?

James Kannengieser — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:30:12 -0000

The first Winter Meetings of the Twitter era is now complete - thank goodness.

Meet the Mets

The big news of the day, as first reported by Mike Francesa, was the Mets' offer to Jason Bay in the neighborhood of four years, $65 million. If he accepted it would probably be an overpay but not a terrible contract for a team with the Mets' resources. Anything much higher than the initial offer would be bad news. Matt Holliday is obviously preferable but it would be nice to have a slugging corner outfielder for a change. The nightmare scenario would be paying Bay $16-17 million per season, then watching Holliday sign for $18-19 million. I wonder if people would continue saying the Alex Cora and Henry Blanco signings wouldn't hinder the Mets this offseason?

One bizarre aspect of the Bay offer is the revelation that the Mets think Bay is a better fielder than Holliday. That's almost certainly not true. Bay probably isn't as bad as UZR suggests the last couple seasons but I don't think an argument can be made that he's anything better than below average.

Mets Fever goes into great detail extolling the intangible virtues of Bengie Molina and endorses a two year, $12 million contract. This topic has been beaten into the ground but I say again: Bengie Molina is not worth anything more than a one year deal for very small money. Yes, he caught the 2002 World Champion Angels. That was a long time ago. I think Tim Lincecum would have won the last two Cy Youngs without Bengie. Three measures of catcher defense (Driveline Mechanics, Sean Smith, Baseball Prospectus) all rated Molina as below average in 2009. He's just not very good at anything except swinging at every pitch within a ten foot radius of home plate.

Unsurprisingly, the Mets' Rule 5 Draft activity left many people scratching their heads. Additionally, in a decent move, they signed minor league pitcher Clint Everts.

Joe Janish at Mets Today offers up a recap of the Winter Meetings' last day.

Josh Thole is leaving his Venezuela Winter League team after dominating over the last several weeks. He hopes to compete for a spot on the Opening Day Roster.

Rivers McCown fires up the Manny Ramirez what-if machine.

Around the NL East

Talking Chop reviews the Braves Winter Meetings activity.

FishStripes looks at the Marlins Rule 5 pick.

The Fightins' notes a weird compliment of Placido Polanco by Jim Leyland.

Ken Rosenthal says the Phillies and Angels are the leaders in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes.

Around MLB

The Royals released Mike Jacobs just before the Rule 5 Draft.

The Red Sox agreed to send Mike Lowell to the Rangers, with the Red Sox picking up some of his salary.

MLBTradeRumors provides a massive recap of the Winter Meetings.

Off topic - Jonah Keri writes a thoughtful post about pickup basketball.

Off topic 2 - that bastion of great journalism, the Daily News, produces another nonsensical sports column.

A Potentially Bizarre Lineup

Sam Page — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 01:28:00 -0000

A thought I just had: if the Mets sign Bay, Molina, and, for the sake of argument, Nick Johnson, this would be the lineup, sorted by 2009 walk rate:

Nick Johnson 17.8% (1st in MLB)

Jason Bay 15.0%

Carlos Beltran 13.2%

Luis Castillo 12.4%

David Wright 12.2%

Jose Reyes 10.9%

--League Avg: 8.89%--

Jeff Francoeur: 3.7% (fourth worst in MLB)

Bengie Molina: 2.6% (last in MLB)

Daniel Murphy, the more likely firstvbaseman, had av7.0% mark, although he could really range from Francoeur-esque discipline to above-average, depending on which Murphy shows up in 2010. Imagine facing that kind of dropoff as a pitcher. I predict: Jeff Francoeur, .305 OBP, 150 RBIs.

Mets Extend Offers to Bengie Molina and Jason Bay

Sam Page — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:18:12 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

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According to David Lennon's Twitter:

#Mets finally show hand. Source confirms first two offers going out are to Molina and Bay.

Looks like the Mets could be signing their Raul Ibanez and their...well no one as bad as Bengie Molina has the contract we're probably offering. Maybe Jason Kendall.

Jason Bay is a very good player, a fantastic hitter, a sharped-dressed man, and a poor fielder. We can speculate that the fielding might not be as bad as it seems, with the Green Monster and Fenway's other leftfield quirks, but that's small comfort. He'd be an improvement, but not the best long-term investment for a NL team. CHONE projects +21 batting runs and -4 fielding runs (I'd take that). He does two things well that the Mets aren't used to: walking and hitting homeruns.

Bengie Molina is not good! Chone projects -15 batting runs, -3 fielding runs. I project -20 basrunning runs.

Rule 5 Applesauce - Rangers Sign Harden, Worrying About Pelfrey, Boras Speaks And Twitter Is Still Ridiculous

James Kannengieser — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:45:08 -0000

Former Rule 5 picks include Dan Uggla and our own Johan Santana, so you never know what gems might be found.

Meet the Mets

The Mets pick 7th in today's Rule 5 Draft. Check out Mark's list of potential picks from a few weeks back. MLBTradeRumors also offers up a preview.

Scott Boras says the Mets have the financial resources to sign any player they choose. He's probably right. The organization's real problem is determining which players to sign.

John Harper recently perpetuated the myth that Mike Pelfrey took a major step backwards in 2009, despite evidence that suggests otherwise. Ted Berg and Matt Cerrone weigh in on the topic.

Metstradamus riffs on the debunked Pat Burrell rumor and the possibility of signing Elmer Dessens. This had me laughing:

Funny how neither Dessens, Blanco, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Baerga, Mackey Sasser, nor anybody else with "intangibles" needed to be in the room to mentor Oliver when he signed that $36 million contract. Weird, huh?

Patrick Flood offers up his take on the inevitable Bengie Molina/Mets relationship.

Mets Police comments on the Sports Illustrated All-Decade team, which Carlos Beltran and Johan Santana were named too. MP also implies he would rather have Wally Backman on his team instead of Jeff Kent due to their respective effects on team chemistry. I'll take the probable Hall of Famer.

Around the NL East

Jayson Stark tweets that the Braves are only asking for prospects in return for Derek Lowe.

The Marlins traded Matt Lindstrom to the Astros for two minor leaguers and a PTBNL.

Federal Baseball wraps up the Nationals activity at the winter meetings.

The Good Phight is holding out hope for a Roy Halladay trade. Halladay, Lee and Hamels would be frightening and probably unstoppable.

Around MLB

The Royals offered Jason Kendall a two year contract. Umm, what?

The Mariners signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. Walkoff Walk has some advice for M's manager Don Wakamatsu regarding Patterson.

The Astros signed Brandon Lyon for three years, $15 million. Seems a bit excessive.

Mike Cameron's agent says his client has a special place in his heart for Seattle. Too bad the Mariners already have an awesome center fielder.

The Rangers signed Rich Harden and traded Kevin Millwood to the Orioles for Chris Ray. Evan Brunell at The Hardball Times weighs in.

Twitter Is Ridiculous Applesauce - Omar Meets The Agents, Juan Pierre Is Available And Nonsensical Rumors

James Kannengieser — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:05:48 -0000

It seems reporters/"journalists" are neglecting to consider source bias and failing to corroborate rumors with multiple sources before posting on Twitter or a blog. All in the name of page hitzzz I suppose.

Meet the Mets

Omar Minaya met with the agents for various players last night, including John Lackey, Jason Marquis, Bengie Molina, Joel Pineiro and Randy Wolf.

In an interview with Daily 'Stache, Adam Rubin says the Mets should focus on pitching this offseason, namely Lackey. He also says Jeff Francoeur is the most reliable provider of good quotes.

Steve Henson says that 3-4 teams are interested in Dodgers OF Juan Pierre. A trade for Pierre would likely include a bad contract player, AKA Luis Castillo. No thanks on Pierre. Speaking of undesirable players, Jerry Crasnick reports that Elmer Dessens will likely re-sign with the Mets. If it's a major league deal you better get ready for Dessens Avenue.

Ken Davidoff tweets that Yorvit Torrealba is on the Mets radar. Interesting, considering the bizarre chain of events involving the Mets and Torrealba two offseasons ago.

Joel Sherman reports that a John Maine for Corey Hart trade is being discussed. Hart is just 27 years old and two years removed from a 4+ win season but I'd rather hold on to Maine. Will at BlueAndOrange agrees and thinks the deal is plausible, especially considering Omar Minaya's affinity for bad corner outfielders.

Mets Fever is also a fan of Adam Kennedy. If Castillo can be moved, Kennedy is the way to go.

LOL Rumors of the Day

Early yesterday it was reported that Pat Burrell had been traded to the Mets. This story was debunked almost immediately and the original story has been taken down from PhillyBlurbs, the website with the original report. Folks, cool it with your bogus anonymous sources, you're not providing a valuable service and it's annoying. No one is impressed.

Ed Price of Fanhouse tweeted the following yesterday:

Rumor that #Mets acquire Edwin Jackson

This was followed shortly by a clarification tweet from Price:

To be clear: #Mets and Edwin Jackson not confirmed. Heard in the lobby.

Why not get confirmation before posting the rumor? Does "heard in the lobby" count as a reliable source nowadays?

Around MLB

The Nationals gave Pudge Rodriguez 2 years, $6 million for some reason.

Randy Wolf reportedly signed with the Brewers for 3 years and an unknown dollar amount.

Chuck Brownson at The Hardball Times discusses swaps for bad contracts, including Dontrelle Willis, Milton Bradley, Gil Meche and Kevin Millwood.

Tim Marchman thinks an intra-Chicago trade between the Cubs and White Sox involving Milton Bradley makes sense.

Matt Murton, a notorious ginger and player good enough to start on many major league teams, is going to play for the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. I wonder if Murton realizes he's good enough for MLB.

Off topic link of the day: Tom Tango reviews the incredibly enjoyable movie Taken and heaps justifiable praise on Liam Neeson. I agree with him, Taken is fantastic.

Draft Picks, Schmaft Picks: Why the Giants Were Right Not to Offer Arbitration to Bengie Molina

Grant — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 18:32:50 -0000

Nothing like a piece of actual, honest-to-Bonds news to get folks riled up. Bengie Molina was not offered arbitration yesterday, so the Giants will not receive any draft pick consideration when another team signs him. That's kind of a big deal. Without draft pick compensation, the Giants would not have had Tim Alderson, which means that they wouldn't have Freddy Sanchez. And where would the team be then? WHERE WOULD THE TEAM BE THEN? We certainly wouldn't have advanced to the NLCS last season, that's for sure.

The Giants also picked up Nick Noonan in the supplemental round, and even if you're not enamored of Noonan as a prospect, he could still bring back a major leaguer in a trade. He has a certain kind of value to the organization without ever rising above A-ball. And that's a pessimistic line of thought, ignoring the (albeit unlikely) chance that a team can turn compensation picks into guys like Joba Chamberlain, Chris Coghlan, Colby Rasmus, Clay Buchholz, or Jackson Williams. Everyone likes a bunch of a raffle tickets, and the Giants politely declined their chance at a fistful of them.

There's merit to the idea that it was worth the risk to offer Molina arbitration. Even Brian Sabean thinks Molina will get a multi-year contract, and Molina only had a week to decide whether or not to accept arbitration.

Think about what the Bengie Molina market would have been, though, if the Giants would have offered arbitration. The team pursuing Molina would have needed to:

a. have a need at catcher
b. be willing to spend and give out a multi-year deal
c. still think RBI mean more than a league-worst on-base percentage, that a catcher's pitcher-handling abilities can make up for a poor OBP, etc....
d. be willing to give up a first- or second-round draft pick

That whittles down the list considerably. The Mets, and the, uh...Nationals? Mariners? I'd guess that there are about five or six teams that might have semi-serious interest in Molina, and that's even before money is brought up.

I'll also guess that Molina isn't going to get another three-year deal. He's older, and teams aren't as willing to spend in this market, so he's probably looking at a two-year deal. I'm not sure what the average salary would be, and that's the key to the decision to not offer arbitration. If the Mets indicate that they're only willing to offer something like 2/$10M or 2/$12M, Molina's agent might be able to convince him that he'd get almost as much from the Giants if he accepted arbitration.

Crazy? Maybe. But it isn't like it's Rob Neyer on the arbitration panel, and Molina's agent would be able to pound away at two points: Molina had more RBI than anyone else on the team over the past two seasons, and Molina has been the catcher calling pitches for a two-time Cy Young winner. RBIs. Low ERAs. RBIs. Low ERAs. That deserves a raise from $6M, right? So the agent asks for $10M, which is what the Mets' first contract offer was over two seasons. Hey, Jorge Posada is making $13M, and he isn't even a cleanup hitter! The Giants could then try to settle for something like $8M, or they could risk losing, but either way they'd have a catcher for another year who's even less valuable than they think making money that could have gone to a legitimate offensive upgrade. Yick.

The hope, then, would be that the Mets would indicate early that they're willing to give a third year, or a high enough annual salary for a two-year deal that would eliminate the need for a safety net like the $8M or so the Giants would have to pay for a single season. And the Mets would have to do that even though there isn't going to be a lot of competition for Molina.

It was all too risky. The Giants did the right thing, even though an extra late-first/early-second pick and a supplemental pick would have been pretty danged sweet.

Obligatory Bengie Molina Objection Post

Eric Simon — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:00:48 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Bengie Molina means business, if by 'means business' you really mean 'is bad at baseball'. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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The Giants declined to offer arbitration to free agent catcher Bengie Molina, allowing his future team to sign him without fear of additional penalty in the form of draft pick compensation to San Francisco. It also seemingly clears the way for the unholy union between Molina and the Mets, not that something like draft pick compensation would've stood in the way between Omar Minaya and a lousy baseball decision (we weren't going to sign that draft pick anyway!).

Even though the Mets have already handed a guaranteed contract to Chris Coste and have seemingly signed Henry Blanco to back somebody up, I'd peg the odds at 50-50 that Molina winds up in Queens. How bad would that be? It depends on the contract, but probably pretty bad. Molina has been worth around two wins with his bat in each of the past five seasons, which is pretty solid, especally for someone who only plays 120-130 games a year. If that were the end of the story, you could make a reasonable case that a one-year deal worth $5 million with a second-year option might be a decent investment. Molina's bat probably wouldn't be worth much more than that, but there's no shame in merely getting your money's worth.

The problem, as you've probably already guessed, is that there's more to baseball than just hitting, and that's where the case for Molina falls apart. In addition to offensive contributions we also have to consider defense and baserunning.

Evaluating catcher defense is tricky business, but two recent efforts have made positive strides towards usefulness. This post by Matt Klaasen at Driveline Mechanics breaks down a catcher's credits and debits into "caught stealing runs", "wild pitch/passed ball runs", "throwing error runs", and "fielding error runs". By this method, Molina clocks in at -3.4 runs, or minus one-third of a win. Then we have this post by Chuck Brownson at Beyond The Boxscore, which also includes run totals for "baserunning" and "misses", but also incorporates "reputation", or the likelihood that a runner won't steal based on the catcher's rep. Molina charts at -7.06 runs above average.

Things don't get any better for Molina when he takes to the bases (something he managed to do on his own in just 28.5% of his plate appearances last year). Regularly considered one of the slowest runners in the league, Molina was worth -4.5 EqBRR in 2009. The Bill James Handbook has him down at -17 bases, which is probably about the same as his EqBRR in terms of runs (I'm not sure of the translation from bases to runs; obviously it depends somewhat on which 'base' we're talking about).

If we add up Molina's debits for defense and baserunning, plus factor in another year of age-related decline, we're pretty close to ten runs (or one win) to the bad. Now we've gone from a two-win player with the bat to a one-win player overall, which is hardly anything worth falling over yourself to acquire. For comparison, Omir Santos was worth between one-half of a win (StatCorner) and one win (FanGraphs) with his bat last year in just a half-season, and the defensive metrics rate him quite favorably (Klaasen had him at +2.4; Brownson at +14.5!), though his baserunning was as bad as Molina's (-3.0 EqBRR). If we say that his defense and baserunning 'offset' each other, we're still left with a near-one-win catcher making the league minimum, which makes it pretty tough to justify paying Molina dramatically more than that.

Someone is going to give Bengie Molina two guaranteed years at $6-8 million; I just hope it isn't the Mets.