SB Nation - Pedro Feliz

Wednesday Rockpile: Off season progress report, Rockies 2010 playoff chances improve as the team does nothing

Rox Girl — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 17:10:17 -0000

So let's take a look back at how the NL ended the 2009 season:

NL West Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Los Angeles	95	67	.586	0	Lost 3
Colorado	92	70	.567	3	Lost 2
San Francisco	88	74	.543	7	Won 1
San Diego	75	87	.462	20	Lost 1
Arizona	70	92	.432	25	Won 1

(updated 12.23.2009 at 10:02 AM EST)

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis	91	71	.561	0	Lost 6
Chicago	83	78	.515	7.5	Lost 1
Milwaukee	80	82	.493	11	Won 3
Cincinnati	78	84	.481	13	Won 2
Houston	74	88	.456	17	Lost 3
Pittsburgh	62	99	.385	28.5	Lost 2

(updated 12.23.2009 at 10:03 AM EST)

NL East Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Philadelphia	93	69	.574	0	Lost 1
Florida	87	75	.537	6	Lost 1
Atlanta	86	76	.530	7	Lost 6
New York	70	92	.432	23	Won 3
Washington	59	103	.364	34	Won 7

(updated 12.23.2009 at 10:03 AM EST)

So that's your basic straight up standings, if you want to go into more advanced detail (and you probably should) about how these teams stacked up on talent and skill without the luck you can look at Beyond the Boxscore or Baseball Prospectus or something, but straight W's and L's will serve as a solid start for where I'm going with this today.

So let's separate the teams into some talent groups, this time going by what we know of the teams' personnel at the end of last season rather than the standings:

Contender A Class (90+ wins)

Philadelphia
Los Angeles

Contender B Class (86-90 wins)

St. Louis
Colorado
Atlanta
Chicago

.500-ish teams (81-85 wins)

Arizona
San Francisco
Florida
Milwaukee
New York

I realize that the D-backs and Mets didn't finish anywhere close to .500 in 2009 and that the Giants and Marlins finished ahead of a couple of the teams in the group I have above them, but this is where taking out the luck, good or bad, comes in. In the cases of Florida and San Fran, they seemed to benefit from a large positive dose of divine favor in 2009 even as Arizona and New York were seemingly cursed from the get-go. Feel free to quibble with this placement in the comments, but the main point is that these are the 11 teams that appear to have a legitimate shot at making a playoff run in 2010.

So far in the off season, we've seen Los Angeles give up Randy Wolf, Orlando Hudson and Juan Pierre and drop into that second group with the Rockies and Cardinals, while the Phillies have grabbed a couple of minor upgrades with Roy Halladay over Cliff Lee and Placido Polanco over Pedro Feliz and given themselves a little separation from the rest of the league. Right now, it does not appear as if the Dodgers will be able to gain nearly enough of those cast-off wins back to get back to the Phillies level.

In the second group, the Cardinals and Rockies are both taking risks in replacing free agent starters leaving after career seasons, the Cards with Brad Penny in place of Joel Pineiro, the Rockies with the return of Jeff Francis in place of Jason Marquis. Insurance policies for both teams seem to be primarily a cache of young near-ready pitching talent. Both teams have similar bench depth issues to work out as well, the Cardinals need to replace Mark DeRosa and Rick Ankiel, the Rockies, Yorvit Torrealba and Garrett Atkins.

The good news for the Rockies in relation to the Cardinals (should they have to compete with each other for the wild card next season) is that 1) Dan O'Dowd got rid of this "Holliday distraction" the Cardinals are going through which is keeping them from making other moves a couple of years ago, and 2) while both teams can probably expect some regression in their starting rotation performance in 2010, it's usually a safe bet to expect a smaller step back from the team with the younger players, in this case, Colorado.

The Cubs are hoping that losing Milton Bradley is addition by subtraction, but the team's core seems to be declining as a group fairly rapidly, and actually looking at their ages, with their best hitting talent between the ages of 32-34 next season, I really suspect that they might be dropping into that .500 group without a major rebuild that doesn't involve Carlos Silva. The Braves, meanwhile, looked like they might have a decent team heading into 2010, but their replacement of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez with Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner is a downgrade for next year, as is yesterday's deal of Javier Vazquez to the Yankees. Signing Troy Glaus would be useful, but I still think the overall impact of Atlanta's moves is to add a lot more downside risk to the team in 2010 without a substantial upside improvement.

Of the .500-ish teams, so far, most haven't made any moves that really put them into the next category. The Mets appear to be likely adding Jason Bay, which would be a decent start at that. Arizona got a little better for next year or two in acquiring Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy for Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth, but they still seem to be in a 82-85 win range which I think basically just catches them up to the Giants, who have as of yet done nothing. Florida gets a little better by aging a year, but not good enough, and their bullpen has been weakened. San Francisco is putting a lot of eggs into the Madison Bumgarner basket, either he or a second tier free agent like Jon Garland will have to replace the production that Randy Johnson and Brad Penny provided last season. That's a lot to ask given that the rest of their rotation, much like the Rockies, probably isn't going to be quite as good as it was in 2009.

Milwaukee's moves, such trading for Carlos Gomez and signing Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins have been mostly beneath the radar, but I really like what they've done so far. I still think they need more, but at least they're systematically going after the team's weaknesses on a budget without taking the kind of gambles that Atlanta is, or St. Louis did with the Penny acquisition.

So summarizing, the Rockies, who are gaining ground just by maturing into a peak phase, thus far have caught up with the Dodgers, and probably passed them talent-wise, just by sitting on their hands. Arizona's moved up a little and are within range of passing us if things fall their way in 2010, as are the Giants, but to put it in perspective, the gap between the Rockies and both those teams talent wise is probably still larger than it is between the Rockies and the Phillies the other direction.

As for the second playoff option, so far the news has been mostly positive as well, as none of the primary competitors outside the NL West with the possible exception of the Brewers have added enough talent to either make up for the players they've lost, or to otherwise catch up with Colorado. The last couple of seasons the Rockies have had similarly quiet winters, as Dan O'Dowd seems to prefer to wait until mid-season to add salary via trade if the team's in contention rather than going all in for the top free agents. Thus far this off season, I haven't seen any NL team besides the Phillies make moves that should push the Rockies to pursue a less budget conscious course.

Astros show interest in Kelly Johnson, Gustavo Chacin and Jason Michaels sign on the dotted line

HighLeveragePerformer — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:00:29 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

How does "Kelly Johnson, Houston Astro" sound?

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After second baseman Kelly Johnson was non-tendered by the Atlanta Braves, a number of teams have expressed interest in him. That link notes that the D-Backs are on record that their hat has been thrown in the KJ ring, but Tim Dierkes said Monday on his site that three NL Central clubs: the Pirates, Cardinals and Astros desire his services to various extents.

Johnson's non-tendering came as a surprise to many, including clack, and his bat would be welcome in Houston, assuming he returns to his normal self after a down 2009. Take Bill James' optimistic projection and the fan's projections off FanGraphs, and you can get a pretty good idea of what is expected out of the middle infielder in 2010.

This wouldn't be an offseason-defining signing by Ed Wade, but if the Astros could get Johnson, the team would be much improved. The Diamondacks are in a position where they would trade another one of their backup infielders in order to create space for Johnson. Neither the Cards or Buccos have the greatest infields in the world, and while Pittsburgh signed Bobby Crosby to bolster theirs, it's not as if Kelly Johnson wouldn't be able to get significant playing time in Pittsburgh. St. Louis may not get Troy Glaus back, which leaves them with Skip Schumaker, David Freese, and Joe Thurston at 2B/3B entering spring training. Not exactly household names.

Pedro Feliz is an upgrade for Houston over Geoff Blum, but it's no guarantee that Feliz will be even a win better than Blummers. Kaz Matsui is injury-prone at second, is coming off a disappointing season and his backup, Edwin Maysonet, does not project to be anything special. Cost is something to focus on, as KJ made $2.8 million in 2009 and should demand a contract worth more than that in 2010. A deal in the mid-3 millions for one season maybe a gamble worth taking, especially if Wade cannot sign a starting pitcher or convert Jason Bourgeois to a second baseman as some have hypothesized.

Just when we thought we were getting rid of him...he pulls us back in. Or rather, we pull him back in. That's right: Jason Michaels has been re-signed to an $800,000 contract. Again, not a disaster, but the money could have been better allocated elsewhere. I would still like to see the team make a move for Ryan Church, if their budget allows for it. Bottom line, as with most of the Astros' moves, this won't be the difference between a postseason berth and another Astro-less October. Michaels wasn't near as bad as I thought he was in 2009, but I would have liked to have seen Wade think a little more out of the box. Reggie Abercrombie, and the aforementioned Bourgeois and Church could be in the running for the fifth and assumedly final outfield reserve spot.

Alyson Footer also tweets that Gustavo Chacin has been signed to a minor league deal and given an invite to Spring Training. Chacin hasn't pitched in the majors since 2007 and hasn't pitched a full season since 2005, so let's not hold our breath on anything happening for him with the Astros. His experience working with pitching coach Brad Arnsberg in Toronto most likely has a lot to do with his being given a shot. Think of him as Russ Ortiz with perhaps a bit more upside.

Looking for optimism in the Feliz signing

clack — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 19:37:35 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

J.R. Towles looks on after Feliz hit a grand slam against the Astros last year. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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Although Pedro Feliz is an excellent defensive third baseman, his offense is more flawed. Feliz fits the profile of a lower batting average, low OBP hitter, whose saving offfensive feature is the ability to hit a decent number of HRs (averages 18 HR/season). Since Feliz's HR totals declined in 09, critics point to a likely decline in power as Feliz heads into his mid-30's. So, I will take a look at Feliz's offense to see if we can find any reason for optimism. This article isn't about making a projection for Feliz--if you want that, you can look at CHONE, Bill James, and ZIPS projections, all of which project a slight improvement in Feliz's offense over 2009--but rather trying to find some glimmers of hope that Feliz could provide a better offensive contribution than we expect.

ZIPS shows the two top comparable players to Feliz are Vinny Castilla and Tim Wallach. Castilla is an interesting comparable, in part because of the similarity between the situation surrounding the acquistion of Feliz and Castilla by the Astros. The Astros brought Castilla in as a one year "fix" at the 3d base position in 2001, after young prospects were disappointments at that position. Castilla, a slick fielding 3d baseman, appeared to be in the midst of an offensive decline at the age of 33, but he ended up resurrecting his career with the Astros, hitting 23 HRs and posting a .812 OPS. Castilla's bumpy offensive performance in his mid-30's is illustrated by his HRs totals between ages of 33 and 36: 23, 12, 22, and 35. Castilla had one of his best offensive seasons when he went back to Coors Field at the age of 36 and hit 35 HRs, with 131 RBIs. Tim Wallach had declining offense in Montreal at ages 32-35, and then rebounded as a Dodger at ages 36-37 with an OPS+ of 127 and 106. These two comparable players illustrate that the declining impact of age is not always a straight line, but often a jagged line that includes rebounding offense.

If you wanted to hold out hope for a rebound season for Feliz, I think the possibility of a change in scenery, specifically the ballpark, can rejuvenate a player. Castilla's rebound years after moving to MMP and then Coors Field late in his career might be examples. Feliz is pull hitter to LF; 24 of his 26 HRs over the last two years were hit to LF. And, of course, MMP's Crawford Boxes are only 315 feet away in LF. A player's ballpark stats should be taken with a grain of salt, mostly due to sample size, as well as the inability to control for the quality of opposing pitchers. However, setting aside that warning, I think we can see why Feliz said he liked his trips to Houston as an opposing player. His career triple slash line in Minute Maid Park is quite good:

.301, .326, .530, OPS--.856

In fact, among NL parks only Coors Field (.949) and Nationals Park are better for Feliz, in terms of OPS.

Since the bulk of Feliz's hitting with Houston will be in NL Central ballparks, it might be interesting to look at his offensive output in those ball fields over his career. The statistics below: OPS / HR/PA /PA

MMP	.856	.058	86
GAB	.830	.028	71
Miller	.755	.056	106
Wrigley	.734	..044	89
Busch II	.747	.028	36
PNC	.536	0	75
Feliz Career.	.715	.032	4115
NL Central parks	.745	.039	463

By way of commparison, a .05/PA HR rate is equivalent to 30 home runs per season. Except for the Bucs' PNC park, Feliz's OPS in all of the NL Central parks has been above his career level. PNC, which is far below his career level, also has a huge LF, which probably accounts for his zero HR rate there. Frankly, I'm not sure how much stock to put into this comparison. But it is interesting. And if you want to grab on to a slice of evidence, whether meaningful or not, this could suggest that Feliz might find the NL Central ballparks to his liking.

I have heard some fans suggest that Feliz may be a good clutch hitter, which means his offensive contribution may be greater than his average statistics would indicate. Lately, I have stayed away from situational hitting stats in evaluating potential acquistions, mostly because the concept of clutch hitting is controversial in the sabermetric community and use of clutch offensive stats are subject to sample size issues. However, we do know that some players (Carlos Lee is an example) have shown offensive results in RBI situations which are better than their ovreall hitting stats. We can also test whether Feliz's offense has been better in certain Runners in Scoring Position (RISP) situations.

Selected Situations (OPS)

Feliz Career

RISP .749

RISP, 2 outs .769

Bases Loaded .848

Men On .738

Feliz 2009

RISP .869

RISP, 2 outs ..879

Bases Loaded .952

Men On .848

Setting aside whether clutch hitting is repeatable, the statistics indicate that Feliz was a very good clutch hitter in 2009 and has generally hit better in clutch situations over his career in comparison to his overall OPS. We don't know if this means anything in terms of how Feliz will hit in the clutch in 2010, but at least we know he has been reasonably successful in that role in the past.

So there you have it. You want a few shreds of evidence to make you feel a little more hopeful about Pedro Feliz? Maybe I have helped out.

The State of the Rockies (Post GM Meetings Edition)

Jabberwocky — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:55:40 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Chris Iannetta got his. Will Clint Barmes be next?

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Well, the 2009 Winter Meetings could have gone two ways for the Rockies. One, Dan O'Dowd could have dangled Brad Hawpe, the Rockies could have made overtures to well...anyone of significance. This was unlikely, and did not come to pass. Instead, Rafael Betancourt did the smart thing and accepted arbitration from the Rockies while Jason Marquis made an equally good business decision and declined. The Rockies didn't select anyone in the Rule 5 draft, nor did they have anyone selected. Pretty ho hum to be sure.

However, some significant events did take place regarding the Rockies during the Winter Meetings, giving fans an even clearer picture of the way the roster will shake out. Betancourt's acceptance of arbitration was obviously the most significant, as the Rockies were prepared to bring back LaTroy Hawkins for two years, $7.5 million--a move that for some reason screamed Luiz Vizcaino 2.0 to me--if he had declined. So I'm glad that the Rockies will have an accomplished 8th inning man next year so long as they can fit it into their budget.

As I've said before, if there's a year to spend a little for an extra marginal win or two, it's this one. The NL West crown has never seemed more up for grabs for the Rockies than it appears this year, especially with the Dodgers shuffling through a bizarre offseason, the Giants yet to secure a big bat, and the Padres nickeling and diming their roster. Meanwhile, it was the Diamondbacks who were the big movers of the NL West at the GM meetings in trading away high-upside Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit as part of a three team deal that netted them All-Star pitcher Edwin Jackson as well as Yankees pitcher Ian Kennedy to solidify their rotation for at least 2010. Should Brandon Webb come back strong from surgery, that is one scary rotation developing in Arizona for 2010--and a reason why they will be overrated by about 10 wins in preseason predictions by pundits everywhere. At least, that's my prediction--the Diamondbacks coming in at around 78 wins next year because I'm not sold on their hitting nor their health.

In any case, the Rockies made a move over the winter meetings in locking up Chris Iannetta through his arbitration years (three years, $8.3 million) plus a cheap club option ($5 million) for his first year of free agency. Rob Neyer applauded the move and I agree with him. Love him or like him, this is a solid move for the Rockies, and here's why...

The Rockies are paying Iannetta roughly market value for a player of his stature...if he repeats his 2009 season for four more years. Many people, myself included, seem to believe that Iannetta will perform a bit better than that. Fangraphs' Matt Klaassen projects Iannetta for 2.5 WAR in 2010 (assuming only 100 games played) and explains that he's being paid to be a 1.5 win player this year when you adjust for the fact that the contract is buying out his first arbitration year and not a free agency year. The fans on FanGraphs who have projected Iannetta seem to believe that he will be a 4 WAR player in 2010--which is a little optimistic for me (I see him in the 2.5-3 WAR range next year given adequate playing time), but Iannetta is entering his baseball prime and I wouldn't rule the upper range out.

In return for the security of having a guaranteed paycheck for the next three years (something the soon to be non-tendered Garrett Atkins might be wishing for right now), Iannetta has given up potentially larger arbitration salaries over the next few years--and if he plays as well as Klaassen and myself have predicted he will, CDI will ultimately be a large bargain (to the tune of $30-40 million in net value) for the Rockies over the life of his contract.

The Rockies are busy negotiating multi-year deals with Huston Street and Clint Barmes, but it is unlikely that either of those deals, if signed, will be as team friendly or have a comparable net value (especially in Street's case due to his 3 year, $30 million demands).

The Torrealba Situation

In his Iannetta article, Klaassen bemoaned the handing out of multi-year contracts to aging, marginal at best catchers like Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Kendall. While Yorvit Torrealba is only 31 and has definitely shown that his bat has some life last year, he's far closer to those catchers in value added than he is to Iannetta. Meanwhile, he has seen that Rodriguez got 2 years, $6 million and wants the Rockies to match this number. The Rockies have countered with $5.6 million. Either contract will give Torrealba way more money than he's worth in tangible on the field value. At most he's worth $4 million over two years. At most. Any more is, quite frankly, ludicrous. Just because the market for aging backup catchers who can't hit or field particularly well but can "handle a pitching staff well" has gone crazy doesn't mean that the Rockies need to succumb to it. In all honesty Torrealba should be happy that he has garnered as much interest in his modest skill set as he has.

Look, it's no secret that I'm neither a fan of Torrealba as a player nor am I convinced of the importance (or tangible benefit) of the attributes for which he is valued. So take my advice how you will. But the only way that makes sense to me is to evaluate a player based largely on his quantifiable production (I'm not advocating that this is the correct way to do so, just that it is the way that I do it), and the numbers that I value rate Torrealba at a very low level. He has been an important part of the Rockies' Rocktober runs as an emotional leader and as someone who has produced well in high leverage situations, and for that I thank him sincerely. However, it's just time for both parties to move on.

Free Agency Update

For the Rockies, moving on from Torrealba could land Miguel Olivo, formerly of the Royals, in their laps for a similar 2 year deal. Olivo, who is four days older than Torrealba, is famously lacking in patience (BB rate of 4.6% in 2009) but he does have some pop in his bat (23 HRs) and he did produce 2.2 WAR for the woeful Royals last year. You could call him a Chris Iannetta without patience. Looking at his career numbers, Olivo's 2009 stands out as a clear career year at the plate, so he could be due for some regression that could be mitigated somewhat by moving to the NL and a hitter-friendly park. If he can be had for 2 years, $4-5 million, the Rockies could certainly do worse than Olivo as a back-up.

As for other previous targets, the Winter Meetings saw prospective utilitymen Pedro Feliz and Bobby Crosby got snapped up. Orlando Hudson remains a possibility, albeit one that would only be consummated very late in the offseason at a discounted price. Meanwhile, the Rockies appear to have shied away from several other potential players to fill the Garrett Atkins role. However, there are a few that I haven't gone over yet that have been linked to the Rockies:

Fernando Tatis: The utilityman will be 35 on Opening Day, has been bumming around the majors since 1997 for five teams but has accrued only 7.105 years of service time, a testament to his journeyman status. However, in 2009 Tatis was quite good in part time status, producing 1.5 WAR in 340 PAs with positive value in both hitting and fielding. He can probably be had cheaply (around $2.25 million), can provide depth at several positions, and has demonstrated his ability as a pinch hitter (as Franklin Morales can attest). I'm putting him at the top of my revised wish list.

Melvin Mora: The 37 year old Mora has been at least a league average player as recently as 2008 (and much better than that in the recent past), but does he have anything left in the tank and would he accept a part-time slot? That and his likely $4-5 million asking price is enough to scare me away.

Rob Quinlan: Quinlan is a 32 year old AAAA player who has spent parts of the last seven years with the Angels as a reserve corner infielder. At this point it's clear to me that he's pretty much a replacement player and I wouldn't advocate signing him to a major league deal.

The Rockies have talked with Jose Contreras about him returning, though the Rockies want to pay him as a reliever while Contreras wants starter money. Quite frankly, he should be paid as a starter given his FIP (4.11) last year. Colorado has also approached Jason Giambi about returning to fill Atkins' spot, though he is searching for a DH job that will give him more PAs next year. If Giambi does become available, having his bat on the bench definitely provides the Rockies with an intimidating edge for opposing managers to worry about.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

There has been some discussion by some that I've projected Betancourt's arbitration award too high at $6.4 million, and they do certainly have a point. Betancourt does not measure up well in saves, the traditional reliever stat valued highly by arbitrators, and the Darren Oliver case that I've cited in projecting Betancourt's salary does seem like an outlier. In any case, when I was projecting Betancourt's salary (indeed, any salary in this projection) I have been erring on the high side, being conservative on the amount of money the Rockies have to spend.

For this projection, I'm going to switch gears a little bit and reduce Betancourt's salary to that of his $5 million option that the Rockies declined. Plus, I'm adding Iannetta's salary (represented as $2 million, which is what I've heard) into the players under contract category. Outside of the Rockies selling the rights of OF Matt Murton to Japan's Hanshin Tigers, the Rockies made no 40 man roster moves at the Winter Meetings--and since Murton wasn't projected to be on the 25 man roster not much has changed on that front (though the Rockies do now have three open 40 man roster slots).

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$2,000,000	$6,300,000	2

Total		$51,558,000	$78,583,000

Pre-Arbitration Players: While I'm still projecting Phillips as the back-up catcher for now, I'm not holding my breath on that one and am expecting an expenditure of roughly $2.7 million in 2010 on the back-up catcher's roster spot.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players: With the subtraction of Iannetta from the ranks of the arbitration eligible, the Rockies now have seven potential arbitration cases this winter counting Betancourt.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$5,000,000	50%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$27,470,060	136.29%

Grand Total Payroll: $82,352,900

Remember, this roster has only 24 players on it (with Buchholz starting the year on the DL)--it still requires a replacement for Garrett Atkins. In other words, it will likely end up around $84.5 million--by far the highest in Rockies history. The increase from last week's projection is due to the fact that Iannetta's salary increased by larger than the 350% I had projected (actually it is a 482% raise from 2009).

Well, that's it until next time (TBD). I'd love to hear any and all thoughts, Rowbots--just please try to keep it civil.

Poll

Who would you rather have as the backup catcher for the Rockies in 2010?

Reactions to the Astros' transactions, by the numbers

DyingQuail — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 16:17:40 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

Little know fact: Never has one player's $15 million contract ever caused so much vitriol, disdain, or such a fracas of negativity—about 86% of which was unwarranted (mine included). Congratulations, Brandon Lyon.

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There are a few sources that I trust and value for their penchant/availability for sabermetric insight/resources. It's no secret that TCB has a sabr-slant with a streak of Astros-homerism mixed in as well. I imagine that such is the plight for an sabr-fan. Not surprisingly, the Astros have taken a beating this week in the majority of the places I referenced, but there have been a few that shrugged their shoulders with relative indifference, possibly bordering on distanced approval.

In spite of my professed sabr-leanings, as I'm sure you've gathered, I'm prone to a more subjective gut reaction that I'll then cloud with number's based evidence, and roll from there. Eventually, the emotions will die down, and I'll filter through all the statistical evidence (Usually clack will do that for me off the bat. Clack is like my sabr-fan sensei.). Consider this post a post-moretum recap from the various statistical voices who have either denounced or did not denounce (I really don't think anyone truly approved of any deal, just couldn't find a strong reason to disapprove).

I'll break the reactions down by three categories: The Indifferent, the bad, and the ugly, but move in reverse order. After the jump

The Ugly:

Per usual, the pundits at Fan Graphs didn't hesitate to lambast one of their favorite whipping boys: Ed Wade. Dave Cameron called Brandon Lyon's signing the worst of the winter, citing luck inflated stats, mediocre FIP, and value that won't match his contract. Below, Zach Levine takes him to task, and clack has already fleshed out the weaknesses of Cameron's argument here in a few places. Matthew Carruth also decreed the Pedro Feliz signing as terrible, reasoning:

Addressing the hole at third base is a good idea for Houston, but you don’t address a hole by filling it with air. You already have plenty of air; why bother paying money to import premium air from Philadelphia?

Whether their arguments resonante as truth, depends on how much faith you want to put in the numbers that they cite. While I initially was on board with Lyon as being a miserable signing, I've backed off that stance since, and I never saw the Feliz deal in such a negative light. There's a certain level of sabr-dogmatism that seems to filter through these two assessments of the Ed Wade's moves from the week and that's never a healthy approach.

It should be noted that Fan Graphs did approve of the Matt Lindstrom signing at the time.

The Bad:

Beyond the Box Score didn't exactly crucify Ed Wade like Cameron and Carruth did at Fan Graphs, but they were far from giving Ed Wade credit. They were able to read positives into all three transactions of the week, but also a lot to cringe at, too. While caustic of the Lyon signing, they approved of the Lindstrom deal, and could, in the end, see some positive in the Feliz signing.

Zach Levine crunched the numbers that Cameron cited for Lyon and came to a far more neutral assessment of Lyon's penchant to produce for the Astros. Levine pretty much sees the potential for upside in all three of the Astros transactions the week, but can't find a lot to smile at, either. Reading through his summary of the transaction, I glean a disapproval, but nowhere is their the vitriol that Fan Graphs ladled on the deals:

The Astros have to hope that was some AL jitters or something and not some mistrust of his stuff as the clock struck 30. Carry that mediocre walk rate, which he'd never had before, and return that BABIP to average, and you've got yourself a very mediocre pitcher for a killer price....With Feliz's 35th birthday coming in April, Astros fans have to hope that steady OPS doesn't begin to decline and that he's still got it defensively, though I can't imagine the Astros will lean on him for 158 games like the Phillies did last year....As for Matt Lindstrom, that seems like a fine move, and people I trust who have seen the minor leaguers have told me the haven't given up anything they couldn't afford to, and I think the price is right and his production will level off from last year's bad ERA.

Levine kind of straddles both the Bad and the Indifferent, but I feel like he sits more in the Bad camp than the Indifferent.

The Indifferent:

Professor of economics, JC Bradbury is currently at work on a book about the Hot Stove. He's already published on book on economics and baseball, too. So when he renders an opinion on the matters of player valuation, my ear's perk up. Bradbury, of all the sabr-slanted writers I've read, came the closest of any to giving a implicit seal of approval to Ed Wade's deals.

For both Lyon and Feliz, Bradbury believes the Astros will actually garner surplus value from the contracts. For Lyon, he even stated that the deal seems right. Not that it's a good deal, but that price tag fits the purchase. Feliz, the same thing.

Finally, Fan Graphs did like the Lindstrom signing, so I'll tally it in the Good.

***********

There are more links that could fit in the bad and the ugly categories, but they would just be repetitions of the same arguments—basically. We've already noted all the relevant projections for all the players that will soon be donning an Astros uniform here, and in all it looks like this week has resulted in a marginally improved baseball team (if you consider the fact that the Astros couldn't afford to hold onto Valverde and Tejada). Does this mean Ed Wade did a good job this week? As fans, we seem to be leaning towards the indifferent to bad categories. Considering that Ed Wade had a limited budget, little chance of gaining premium pieces, has upgraded the defense, and at least filled the bull pen with average to slightly above-average relievers for around $11.5 million in extra spending, I don't think the week was ugly.

Whether it was bad or indifferent, though, is hard to say—at least by the numbers. Arguments can be made for either cause, it just depends on how you want to spin it: As a sabr-slanted observer, or as a fan looking for hope in 2010.

Ed Wade and the Astros' busy week: How would you grade it?

DyingQuail — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 04:36:20 -0000

via cache.daylife.com What grade will Ed Wade receive?

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It's been a crazy few days. Tension mounted. Emotions ran high. Ed Wade made headlines. The dust has officially settled in Indianapolis, but not so much around these parts. Tomorrow, I imagine that Matt Lindstrom, Brandon Lyon, and Pedro Feliz will be paraded in front of the media and don their Astros jerseys.

As the people who've weaseled their ways into the publishing content at this place, we gotten to be outspoken about our feelings. Front and center so to speak. I'll quickly recap them:

On Pedro Feliz (whom clack deemed to be not a bad signing):

Yes, that defense has deteriorated with his age and yes, he doesn't get on base. But, Feliz is a much better player at this point than Blum and can provide a good stopgap until the club feels Chris Johnson is ready to go.

On Brandon Lyon (who made me lose sleep):

If you haven't picked up on the meme of this post, it's that I can't figure this deal out. It's really not a terrible deal for any team that has payroll flexibility and a total dearth of options for their bull pen. But for the Astros—especially after the Lindstrom trade—Ed Wade dropped the ball in a big way. Yes, Lyon might bounce back to his 2008 control and have his 2009 strand-rate and BABIP, but why gamble one-half to one-third of your budget on it?

On Matt Lindstrom (who won Ed Wade good will):

Who else were the Astros going to get for three years at controlled money? None of the free agents were going to sign for that little over that many years, nor would the Astros want to commit to any of them for that long.

Opinions, outside of ours, varied around these parts—and rightfully so. But let's not let those varied opinions, and our respective rights to them, stand in the way of forming some kind of consensus opinion on the subject. You have to reactions we had and the links where you can review the various discussions surrounding them; basically everything you'd ever need to evaluate Ed Wade's big week. So what say you?

Beyond The Box Score On The Astros Signing Brandon Lyon, Pedro Feliz & Acquiring Matt Lindstrom

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

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After watching former Astro, LaTroy Hawkins received $7.5 million dollars from the Brewers, Ed Wade did the unthinkable and handed DOUBLE that to Brandon Lyon on a three-year deal. I don't want to beat up on Brandon Lyon here because it's not his fault that Wade saw a 2.86 ERA in 2009, and said "that's the guy I want to pay $5 million dollars annually until 2012."

Lyon is your average run of the mill relief pitcher. He's seen better days in the past, and has moonlighted as a closer every so often, however, overall he's pretty mediocre. With a career ERA of 4.20 and a near matching FIP of 4.23, you could easily find similar talent wasting away in Triple-A somewhere (Winston Abreu, R.J.?).

Lyon is pretty consistent, and will give you 60+ innings out of the bullpen; that's about the most positive thing I can say about that. His strikeout rates aren't impressive and he walked 3.5 batters per nine in 2009. His sexy ERA is clearly due to a lower than normal BABIP (.229) and a higher than normal for him LOB% (80.1). He did earn a decent 0.7 WAR last season, but 57 other relief pitchers earned at least that last season (min 50 relief innings).

Signing Lyon isn't a bad move. Had this been a two-year deal worth something like $2-3 million dollars, nobody would've had a big problem with that. But that would've been too normal.

The Astros also acquired Matt Lindstrom, who along with Lyon will essentially replace Hawkins and Jose Valverde at the back end of the bullpen. Unlike the Lyon deal, I actually like the acquisition of Lindstrom. With the Rays being one of the rumored places for him before the trade, I brushed on some of his history and I can see why teams would take a chance on him.

30 in February, Lindstrom has the velocity scouts swoon over. However, that hasn't turned into the strikeout rates one would expect. His 7.55 career K/9 is not that impressive and he has walked over four batters per nine in each of the last two seasons. His ERA of 5.89 is inflated by a .342 BABIP, but his career FIP of 4.22 suggests that he is pretty much Brandon Lyon for less.

Being arbitration eligible meant that he was getting too rich for the Marlins blood and instead of non-tendering him, they simply passed him off to Houston for two non-descript prospects. Lindstrom's HR/FB jumped to 9.3% in 2009 after keeping it under 3% for two seasons. I guess it was just regression making up for lost time. A ground-ball pitcher, I would guess his rates would settle in the 6-8% range, but pitching in Houston isn't going to help that much. Again, Lindstrom isn't anything special, but his ERA should keep him from being too expensive in arbitration.

I guess our pal Ed Wade is allergic to making two good deals in a week as he took whatever good will gained in acquiring Lindstrom and threw that away in another head scratching signing. It's no secret that the Astros had a black hole at third base, but that's been the case for a few years now. Passing the duties from one utility man to another for the past few seasons, Wade seemingly put a stop to that and got his man.

Thanks to a one-year, $4.5 million dollar deal, the Astros third base problem will be solved by Pedro Feliz. Yes, the same Pedro Feliz who hit .266/.308/.386 in 625 PAs last season. In fact, he has not posted a wOBA over .307 in any of the last five seasons. Sadly, that shouldn't be a surprise since his career wOBA is .306.

Feliz has made a nice living from having an above-average glove at third base, but his bat is terrible. Not to mention, he'll be 35 years-old soon after opening day 2010. Did I mention that Happy Pete also has a career .288 OBP against RHP which just happens to cover like 65% of the league?

Some where Melvin Mora and his 89 kids are hoping that there's one more Ed Wade Christmas miracle to be had this winter.

Busy final day sees Astros sign Pedro Feliz

davoag — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 18:35:07 -0000

Wow, who would have thought Ed Wade could be this busy at the Winter Meetings? One trade, two free agent signings, a host of minor league invites. It's a cornucopia of transactions.

The latest is the first one I can totally get behind. The Astros signed Pedro Feliz to a one-year deal for 4 million. Reasonable price for a good player to fill the hole at third base. Let's all just pretend Ed wasn't serious when he said the Astros could go into the season with Geoff Blum at the hot corner.

What do the Astros get with Feliz? A little power at the corner along with an underrated defensive player. The Phillies had been pushing Feliz as a possible Gold Glover the past few years. Sure, that push didn't gain much traction, but with Feliz and Manzella on the right side of the infield, the Astros defensive range will be greatly improved.

Yes, that defense has deteriorated with his age and yes, he doesn't get on base. But, Feliz is a much better player at this point than Blum and can provide a good stopgap until the club feels Chris Johnson is ready to go.

What else does this team need to do? With Lindstrom making about 2 million (probably closer to 1.5m), Lyon making 5m and Feliz at 4m, the Astros should have about 4 million to kick around now. Wade still needs to find a decent fourth outfielder. Is there anyone out there worth that kind of money? I'm just glad we got at least one glaring hole filled this week.

Astros close in on Pedro Feliz

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 18:11:55 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

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ESPN.com is reporting that the Astros are closing in on a deal with Pedro Feliz. Feliz, who had his $5.5M club option for 2010 turned down by Philadelphia, will make $4.5M in 2010, according to Alyson Footer of MLB.com.

Feliz hit .266 last season with the Phillies, but struggled in the postseason with a .167 batting average.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Pedro Feliz	158	580	62	154	30	2	12	82	35	68	0	1	.266	.308	.386

Feliz, 34, will hopefully provide protection for the middle of the Astros order.

Winter Meetings Open Thread, Wednesday: Kouzmanoff, Perkins, Quinlan

Jesse — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:58:29 -0000

5:25 pm - This from ESPN's Jayson Stark: the Padres are making a hard push to move Kouzmanoff.

5:20 pm - HAPPY BIRTHDAY JON MARTHALER!

4:25 pm - Ummm....get this...Rich Harden? Yeah. He's signing with the Texas Rangers.

That's kind of a double-whammy for the Mariners, isn't it? Bit of a shock, for sure.

3:50 pm - More Olney: Rich Harden is on the verge of signing with...someone? No news on who. What are the chances that the mystery team is the Twins? Right now the rotation is probably guaranteed in four of five spots, but this would be a huge signing for Minnesota with big-time repurcussions.

What say you? Is it even possible? Rumor has it that the Mariners have been hot on his trail, but it could be someone else...

2:55 pm - Buster Olney tweets that the Twins and Padres "have had several discussions about Kevin Kouzmanoff".

2:45 pm - Kelsie Smith tweets that that the Twins' talks with Mark DeRosa's agent were "preliminary".

1:35 pm - A quiet afternoon for the Twins so far, but Ken Rosenthal tweets that LaTroy Hawkins will be pitching for the Brewers next year. Flame on, LaTroy!

10:50 am - Some highlights from LEN III's morning update, I suggest you pop over for a gander...

The Twins met with DeRosa's agent yesterday. Neal admits that DeRosa's been rumored to be asking for three years and $27 million, but also believes that a wave of non-tenders this weekend could drive down prices.
The agents for Pedro Feliz? They're getting the silent treatment. Can you just see Bill Smith, Rob Antony and company whistling and looking the other way as Feliz's agents walk by in the lobby?
Nothing is imminent with Quinlan.
This is surprising: the Twins tried to sign Boof to a one-year deal recently and were turned down. Looks like it was either one or the other, and we know how that story turns out.

9:40 am - Over at MLB Trade Rumors, Tim Dierkes rounds up the speculation over who Minnesota's likely third base targets are. He mentions the usuals: Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa and Felipe Lopez. And then he adds another one...Juan Uribe. Out of all of those players, the last one I would want would be Uribe.

Adding Joe Crede and Kevin Kouzmanoff to that list, and now we finally have a solid group of players to speculate on. Out of those six, who do you prefer?

7:15 am - A couple things I've read this morning...

First, "talks with Joe Crede are progressing slowly" with the Twins. That's interesting. I would have thought the Twins might try something else before going back to Crede, but perhaps they're just trying to keep their foot in the door.

LEN III in his late-late-late edition last night also said the Twins have interest in Mark DeRosa. Now, this isn't necessarily a surprise, but it's the first we've heard his name tied to the Twins this week.

6:50 am - Wrapping up the last two days before we get into what could be a very interesting day 3...

1. Carl Pavano accepted arbitration. The number people seem to be throwing out there is $7 million, although if the Twins sign him for two years they might be able to get away with $5 million per.

2. The biggest tidbit to come out of Tuesday involved the Twins and Padres discussing a Glen Perkins/Kevin Kouzmanoff swap. San Diego rejected the one-for-one deal, as they're looking for more. The Padres also were linked by Kouz to the Giants yesterday, but once again were looking for more than San Francisco's initial offer.

3. Speaking of the Giants, it sounds like they're shying away from Dan Uggla. The Orioles remain interested, but what about the Twins?

4. The sad news from yesterday: Boof Bonser was designated for assignment. I'm confident he'll sign on with somebody, and be able to contribute in 2010.

5. The Twins are also rumored to be interested in utility man Robb Quinlan, probably as a fourth outfielder.

6. There were a lot of rumors yesterday evening about three teams (one being the Cubs) and a number of players (one being Milton Bradley). A report from earlier in the evening said one team was a "surprise" American League club. Would the Twins be interested in moving Delmon Young in order to fit Bradley? How would you feel about a Michael Cuddyer/Denard Span/Milton Bradley outfield?

7. As we continue to discuss the Winter Meetings at length on the main page, don't forget to vote for the next top prospect! Every day Roger (in conjunction with Seth Stohs) is asking you: who is the next best prospect? If you haven't yet, head over to the FanPosts and vote on yesterday's ballot, and be sure to make your voice heard this afternoon on the next one.

8. Last but certainly not least, be sure to check out our own Jon Marthaler on Seth's podcast!

SB Nation - Pedro Feliz

Wednesday Rockpile: Off season progress report, Rockies 2010 playoff chances improve as the team does nothing

NL West Standings

NL Central Standings

NL East Standings

Astros show interest in Kelly Johnson, Gustavo Chacin and Jason Michaels sign on the dotted line

Looking for optimism in the Feliz signing

The State of the Rockies (Post GM Meetings Edition)

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Who would you rather have as the backup catcher for the Rockies in 2010?

Reactions to the Astros' transactions, by the numbers

Ed Wade and the Astros' busy week: How would you grade it?

If you could hand out a grade for this week's transactions it would be:

Beyond The Box Score On The Astros Signing Brandon Lyon, Pedro Feliz & Acquiring Matt Lindstrom

Busy final day sees Astros sign Pedro Feliz

Astros close in on Pedro Feliz

Winter Meetings Open Thread, Wednesday: Kouzmanoff, Perkins, Quinlan