SB Nation - Fred Lewis

NL West in Review: Left Fielders

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 06:00:41 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

A Rockies' draft pick was the most valuable LF in the NL West last season. It wasn't this guy though...

Barry Bonds must have set a hex on the NL West.

In 2009, the Dodgers had easily the most talented left fielder in the division. When Manny received his infamous suspension, Juan Pierre made sure that Los Angeles didn't miss a beat.

Gerardo Parra appeared on the Rookie of the Year ballot.

The Rockies saw Seth Smith and Carlos Gonzalez emerge from the bench and minors to become their most dangerous left-handed bats in the lineup.

And yet, the Giants still finish atop the WAR rankings, even though I'm pretty sure every player the Giants played in left field received death threats from MCC. How did they do it? UZR, of course.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. San Francisco	5	.269	11	59	.328	.411	.340	4.66
2. Los Angeles	4	.302	18	86	.407	.469	.377	4.57
3. Colorado	5	.268	20	74	.332	.440	.346	3.94
4. Arizona	6	.265	13	82	.319	.310	.402	2.10
5. San Diego	8	.250	12	76	.325	.371	.320	0.24

With the positional RAR set at -7.5, here is your chart:

The actual player rankings hold some certain surprises for you:

This time, I have included the full rankings. I'm still messing with the format, so let me know if this blinds you:

For the raw data and calculations, check this Google Docs link.

Arizona

2009 in Review

One of the great surprises in the above list is Eric Byrnes' appearance higher on the list than rookie Gerardo Parra. The crash test dummy did almost all of his offensive damage in 2009 as a left fielder, while his UZR far outpaced any of his brethren. It turns out somersaults are worth 0.5 UZR each. Parra, meanwhile, treated D-Backs fans to a rookie season slightly above average with both the bat and glove.

2010 in Preview

Parra is only 22, so his rookie season was notable. Arizona should feel confident going forward with Parra as their primary left fielder in 2010, although he doesn't have the ceiling of a Carlos Gonzalez. Josh Byrnes will likely purge Eric Byrnes and his $11mil salary before the season starts.

Colorado

2009 in Review

Even though Seth Smith did his best work from the bench and had only a half season's worth of PA's from LF, the former Rebel was within a stone's throw from the NL West's top spot. Mr. Late Night hit and scored a run from all nine slots in the batting order and hit lefties at just 25 OPS points lower than vs righties. Carlos Gonzalez was strong in his 133 PA, while Ryan Spilborghs provided a strong glove and average bat from the right side.

2010 in Preview

If Dan O'Dowd indeed moves Brad Hawpe, the job will belong to Seth Smith. If not, the Rockies' outfield carousel will continue, forcing Smith to give up ABs to CarGo and Spilly. The Bill James projection, usually optimistic for batters, projects a 14-point wOBA drop from Smith to .369.

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Even after being suspended for 50 games, Manny Ramirez achieved the most PAs among NL West LF's. He led the divison in every stat except batting average and UZR. Juan Pierre replaced Ramirez admirably, enough that his contributions in even surpassed Manny. But even after having the top two LFs in the division in 2009, they were only second to the Giants.

2010 in Preview

Ramirez will make $20mil in the second and final year of the contract he signed with Los Angeles on March 4. He is the clear starter for 2010, even though his bat speed has started to slow.

San Diego

2009 in Review

The top rated Padre was a rookie first baseman thrown out to left field for 53 PA's, ranked 13th. That should tell you what you need to know. Chase Headley was the main starter, but the converted third baseman is still clearly trying to find his way as an outfielder, and he struggled with the bat most of the year, at least until he took over for an injured Kouzmanoff at third.

2010 in Preview

With Kouzmanoff entrenched still as the third baseman, Chase Headley will be stuck in left field again in 2010. He is under complete team control financially, so it would be especially nice for San Diego if he lived up to the 31-point wOBA leap Bill James is projecting from him in 2010.

San Francisco

2009 in Review

The Giants were the surprise winner from the 7-spot. All five players who played there achieved positive UZRs, including John Bowker, giving the Giants 2.5 WAR just on defense. Eugenio Velez hit very well in left (yet struggled at second), while Fred Lewis and Randy Winn provided notable value in spite of pedestrian offensive numbers.

2010 in Preview

This spot may be the most interesting to follow in the offseason. Jason Bay and Matt Holliday have been linked to the Giants, but it appears San Francisco will favor multiple smaller fish instead. The club's 2009 WAR in LF is pretty flukey, as multiple players hit better in LF than at other positions, and I don't quite trust that UZR. It would be a good place to improve. If no one is added, that Velez/Lewis/Torres/Schierholtz hodgepodge will continue.

Sour Grapes and the Giants

Grant — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 18:54:07 -0000

After putting my daughter to bed last night, I sat on the couch and watched the Dodgers/Cardinals game. I had a glass of Bulleit Bourbon on one side and a gigantic cat on the other. I sipped the bourbon. I watched some baseball. I skritched the cat.

The Giants not making the playoffs is a bad thing, but there are some benefits. In an alternate reality, the Giants did squeak into the playoffs. I had a chance to interview Alternate Reality Grant for just a bit:

Me: So, how are things?
Alternate Reality Me: Oh, just fine.

Me: Just fine?

ARM: A-OK.

Me: You aren't unbelievably nervous or stressed out?

ARM: Nope. I'm cool.

Me: So I'll assume that the huge wet spot on the front of your jeans isn't urine, and that you're not incontinent.

ARM: Nah. That's not urine.

Me: Good.

ARM: I think it's bile. I think I'm urinating bile. It stings. I'm cold. Is it game time? I'm cold. I just want to wrap myself in red-white-and-blue bunting and go to sleep. Will you stay with me? Oh, god, another wave is coming. I need to ride the wave. Here's a spoon. Make sure I don't swallow my tongue. Here comes the wave. Ride the wave. I'm cold.

Really, I'm a lot of fun when the Giants make the playoffs. But there's something to, you know, being able to relax.

This period of relaxation allows me to calmly discuss who would be the 2009 playoff goat in that alternate reality. Who would have given us the Candy Maldonado sliding non-catch? Who would have given us the Shawn Estes baserunning magic? Who would have given us the Jose Cruz, Jr. clank of Gold Glove irony? There are a few different directions you could go:

The obvious

Eugenio Velez misjudging a fly ball in the ninth inning. Fred Lewis muffing a fly ball, then stepping on his sunglasses as he tries to pick the ball up. Ryan Garko popping up to shallow left in ten straight appearances with the bases loaded. Bobby Howry allowing walkoff home runs even when the Giants play at home. These kinds of scenarios would be entirely predictable, even if some of the scenarios represent an overblown portion of a player's overall contribution.

The surprise

This is more like the Jose Cruz, Jr. thing. Someone does something well all season, and then stinks up a single play to ruin all of the good that preceded it. Tim Lincecum walking seven in three innings. Pablo Sandoval hitting into a double play every time he comes up with runners on base. An error by Travis Ishikawa after he comes into the game as a defensive replacement.

The Barry Zito

Somehow, the stars align to get Zito the start of the fifth game of the Divisional Series. He pitches like the Zito of old. Not old-old, like when he won the Cy Young, but new-old, like when he started with the Giants. Certainly not new-new, which is more like old-new, and we're all fine with that Zito. I forget where this is going, but no matter how well Zito pitches for the Giants in a given year, if he gets knocked around in a crucial playoff start, all we'd hear that offseason is "$126 million! $126 million!"

The ultimate humiliation

Scrapping through the Divisional Series and the NLCS to get to the World Series...only to get manhandledly swept by the Yankees. That isn't a real word yet, but it would have entered the lexicon after a four-game romp that would have made 1989 look like a collection of nail-biters. There isn't a current adverb that could really get across a 34-2 series run differential. Manhandedly would have done nicely, though.

The ultimate pain

Losing to the Dodgers in the NLCS. On a walk-off home run by Andre Ethier. With Russell Martin on base. Who got there after a blown call at first with two outs in the ninth in Game Seven with the Giants up by one. I mean, use your imagination, folks. This could have been an all-time, give-up-baseball-for-needlepoint kind of season.

So this is an Open Sour Grapes Post. How would the Giants have broken your heart in the 2009 playoffs? Because they wouldn't have won the World Series. Definitely not. There wasn't a chance. And I bet those grapes I can't reach are totally sour. Like, yuck. My cheeks are puckering just thinking about them.

Tim Lincecum dominates as Rockies lose fourth straight game to Giants

Rox Girl — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 05:05:54 -0000

More photos » by Dino Vournas - AP

Welp, that didn't go like we wanted it to..,

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Tim Lincecum showed that his back was healthy, striking out eleven Rockies on the way to an easy win for the San Francisco Giants. The Rockies, meanwhile, must regroup and figure out a way to beat a team that has had all the answers against them lately as they continue the final three game set against San Francisco on Tuesday.

Jason Hammel gave up four runs, three in the second when the Giants strung together four straight singles to start the inning and later added a sacrifice fly, and the fourth run in the third inning when Bengie Molina hit a solo homerun.

The Giants fifth run scored thanks to a Juan Uribe single off Juan Rincon in the bottom of the eighth. A few hitters and a couple of relievers later in the same inning, Joel Peralta walked pinch hitter Fred Lewis with the bases loaded to score the Giants sixth run and then Eugenio Velez stabbed the Rockies with a grenade by hitting a bases clearing triple to increase the margin to the final score, 9-1.

The Rockies only run scored when Carlos Gonzalez tripled off of Lincecum with two outs in the seventh inning. A ball four pitch to Todd Helton that got past Bengie Molina and rolled to the backstop allowed Gonzalez to score from third.

82 - 63

Games Back: 3.5

Streak: Lost 3

Magic Number (wc): 15

The Giants close to within 3.5 games of the Rockies in the wild card chase with the win.

via www.fangraphs.com

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Role reversal: after stumbling in the divisional chase, Rockies must fend off Giants' pursuit

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 19:15:57 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Let's leave em speechless. Again

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The Giants could be in first place in the NL Wild Card Sunday. Let that sink in a bit. Technically, they would be tied with Colorado, but that's still borderline incomprehensible after last weekend.

While the Rockies were fumbling their chance to legitimize the divisional race, San Francisco gained a game on the Colorado by eeking out two one-run wins and getting blasted in one game against the Diamondbacks. With the Rockies on the home docket so soon after three very frustrating losses, the Giants surely have retribution freshly in their minds.

Luckily for them, they have their top three pitchers going in the series. Then consider that the Rockies' two hottest hitters this month - Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez - will both miss some if not all of the series with injuries. That means the demoralization Colorado dealt the Giants last weekend is in danger of being completely wiped out with a possible sweep at AT&T Park this weekend, where the Giants' 41-21 mark is just a half game being Tampa Bay and Boston for the best home field advantage in MLB.

Fortunately, it's not all bad. San Francisco's hottest hitters of late - and their 3 and 4 hitters - were both relegated to pinch-hit duty for the entirety of the Arizona series, and their status will likely be the same for at least tonight's game. In addition, Freddy Sanchez was officially placed on the 15-day Tuesday after spending a week inactive on the bench, leaving the Giants' horrible offense without three of its top weapons.

The Rockies counter Bruce Bochy's Linceum/Zito/Cain triumverate with Ubaldo Jimenez, who Jayson Stark says has "the best stuff in baseball," the ultimate WINNAR Jason Marquis, who Tim Kurkjian gave some love to this morning, and the Road Warrior Jason Hammel.

Should be a competitive series.

Rather than putting virtually the same scouting information in KYF as last Friday, I'll refer you to last week's preview for any seemingly incomplete grading rationalization.

If you care to engage with Giants fans, enjoy: McCovey Chronicles. Here is their series preview.

San Francisco Giants (69-59, L1, 3rd, 3 GB WC, 7 GB Div)

Friday-Sunday: 3-game series at AT&T Park

The Bats: F

The lineup will feature Juan Uribe and Eli Whiteside tonight most likely, but since both Molina and Sandoval are expected back Saturday, I'll leave them in the lineup. Nothing has really changed from last Friday - they still have the 2nd worst wOBA in the league at .304, better than Cincy by the slimmest of margins. I had not noticed this post before and it is now two weeks old, but most of the points hold true. A fanpost at MCC shows the Giants are by far and away the most undisciplined offensive team as well as one of the worst. Given their injury losses for tonight's game, the official loss of Sanchez and the move to AT&T, I downgraded their offense to an F.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Eugenio Velez - 2B	.276	3	16	.308	.402	.313
Randy Winn - LF	.268	2	46	.320	.369	.306
Pablo Sandoval - 3B	.331	19	73	.380	.553	.390
Bengie Molina - C	.263	16	67	.283	.439	.305
Ryan Garko - 1B	.271	13	51	.344	.436	.342
Aaron Rowand - CF	.275	12	53	.329	.441	.335
Nate Schierholtz - RF	.278	5	26	.311	.422	.312
Edgar Renteria - SS	.261	3	42	.318	.330	.288

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features one All-Star caliber players (Sandoval), one above average hitter (Garko), one slightly above average hitters (Rowand), two about average hitters (Winn, Schierholtz, Velez and Molina), and one that is just flat out bad (Renteria).

Juan Uribe (.267, 8, 31) is the utility infielder and Travis Ishikawa (.262, 9, 35) is back on the roster to spell Garko. IF Ryan Rohlinger (0-for-5) is now on the bench with Sanchez on the shelf. Fred Lewis (.268, 4, 16) is the lone backup OF though Velez can slide to LF if necessary. Rookie Eli Whiteside (.229, 1, 7) is Molina's backup catcher. As for tonight, Winn will likely be in the 3-hole, while Garko, Schierholtz and Ishikawa have each had their try at the cleanup spot.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups, injuries and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: A

It would be difficult to find a trio of pitchers a team would least like to face right now. Lincecum and Cain were no-brainer All-Stars and Barry Zito continued his recent resurgence against Colorado Monday. The Giants rank in the top three in just about ever pitching category there is - impressive given they don't get a benefit from the home park.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brian Wilson	5-5	55	0	0	0	30	6	60.0	50	25	20	2	24	67	3.00	1.23

The bullpen composition hasn't changed . After Wilson,there's Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo, Bob Howry, Merkin Valdez, Justin Miller and Brandon Medders.

The D: B+

The Giants have MLB 2nd best UZR/150 helping Fangraphs to rate San Francisco's defense as #2 in MLB. Putting Velez in at 2B is a downgrade from their season average though.

The Ballpark: Hitter's Park

AT&T being a pitcher's park is one of MLB's greater myths. It has a multi-year park factor of 102, while this year it is 103/104. For comparison, Coors Field is 105/106. So AT&T is roughly halfway as advantageous for hitters as Coors. The myth has some legs though. It completely drowns home runs (factor of 86.1 for HR/FB), though it inflates triples by an even larger margin. The park has also been advantageous for singles and doubles.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 8:15 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	12-9	26	26	1	0	0	0	174.1	146	67	65	9	66	154	3.36	1.22

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Tim Lincecum	12-4	27	26	4	2	0	0	185.1	142	57	50	8	51	214	2.43	1.04

Dueling aces part deux. As amoeba recently pointed out, Jimenez has obliterated the franchise record for consecutive 6+ inning starts. You know all the awesomeness that is Timmy, but the Giants are just 3-6 in his starts vs the Rockies in his career, 1-2 at AT&T Park. He also has a seasonlong four game winless streak. Okay, it's mostly not his fault, but it's still true. The Giants are -130 favorites in Vegas. I'll just let the two young arms do the rest of the talking. Favors: GIANTS by the slimmest of margins, slimmer than Timmy's frame

Saturday, August 29, 7:05 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Marquis	14-8	28	25	2	1	0	0	171.1	163	72	66	11	54	84	3.47	1.27

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Barry Zito	8-11	27	26	1	0	0	0	154.0	142	72	70	16	62	118	4.09	1.32

Jason Marquis is moving up amoeba's list as well, as he has 10 straight 6+ IP starts, all quality starts. He pitched a complete game in San Fran earlier this season and allowed just 1 run in two of the three starts vs the Giants. Zito is on a 12 IP scoreless streak and has only allowed more than 2 runs once in his last eight starts, and he only allowed three that time. That has helped him push his ERA in danger of dipping below the 4 mark. If the Rockies have hopes of winning this series, this is the game they must win, but it's no clear advantage for Colorado. Favors: ROCKIES slightly.

Sunday, August 30, 2:05 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Hammel	8-7	26	23	1	0	0	0	132.0	165	73	65	12	33	91	4.43	1.50

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Matt Cain	12-4	26	26	4	0	0	0	177.1	143	50	47	17	61	133	2.39	1.15

Hammel started the only game the Rockies took from the Dodgers, is 3-1 in August and just put together two starts reaching through the 7th inning for just the 2nd time this season. He has permitted just 3 ER in 12 IP vs the Giants this season and has a 2.88 road ERA still. Hammel has allowed 3 or less runs in all five August starts and 7 of 8 overall. That is quite good for a fifth starter, but he draws Matt Cain yet again. Cain is 0-2 in August and is winless in six starts, though he allowed one run each in his last two starts. Here's a scary stat for you: Cain has allowed 1 ER or less in 17 of 26 starts this year. Favors: GIANTS strongly.

My take

The Giants are hurt but didn't fall apart after a heartbreaking series at Coors. The Giants have a glimmer of hope with a strong showing this weekend, but if the Rockies manage to win the series, it would not only push the lead further but would also result in the likely implosion of McCovey Chronicles, if not the Giants' psyche. To do this, Colorado absolutely must win Saturday and hope to steal one from Cain or Lincecum with help of their injured bats. I suspect the Rockies will manage only one win, which would pull the Giants back to within two games - right where we were before last weekend's series at Coors.

Bengie Molina is 6 of his last 18 and Pablo Sandoval is 5 for his last 14, while both have a homer, two doubles and two walks on that streak. Of course, both are out of the lineup tonight.

Nate Schierholtz' HR off Jorge de la Rosa Saturday represents his only hit in his past 24 ABs. Juan Uribe has just one single in his last 20 ABs, but he has 2 HR too. Ryan Garko and Travis Ishikawa are both only 4 for their last 17.

Freddy Sanchez was finally put on the 15-day DL Tuesday after a week of inactivity. Andres Torres (hamstring - 7/31) and Rich Aurilia (ankle - 8/12) join him on the 15-day DL. Aurilia is apparently ready to play, but the Giants have yet to activate him. Noah Lowry (ribs) has been on the 60 day DL since at least Opening Week, and P Kelvin Pichardo (shoulder - 6/28), Randy Johnson (trapezius - 7/6) and Henry Sosa (shoulder - 8/5) are now keeping him company. Bengie Molina (tight quad) and Pablo Sandoval (tight calf, flu) are questionable for tonight's game and likely won't start but are available to come into the game if it needed.

Poll

By dinnertime Sunday, I will be feeling:

Elated: Sweeping the Giants on the road against those pitchers is an even bigger blow to their playoff chances than the resulting 6 game lead.

16 votes

Very happy: That was a tough series win and it showed who the better team is.

75 votes

Uneasy, but understanding: I couldn't have expected to win this series, but that two game lead is more tenuous than I'd like.

65 votes

Terrified: The offense isn't clicking, we've lost five in a row, and the Giants have caught us. Maybe the choke's on us.

21 votes

177 votes | Poll has closed

Rox can bury the Giants with 4-game set at Coors

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 18:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Time to hang them up to dry for good.

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Some things have changed since the last time the Giants were in town. Some haven't.

After the Rockies took two of three for San Fran at Coors July 24-26, the Rockies were two games ahead of the Giants for the wild card. Right now, they are two games ahead of the Giants for the wild card. Tim Lincecum's arm is still firmly attached to his right shoulder, and Bengie Molina still sucks. But for all the holdovers, this will certainly be a different team. Of the four starters in line to face the Rockies, only one pitched in the last series. The lineup features a new second baseman, left fielder, and first baseman, transforming the top of the order. Of course, the Rockies counter with a strengthened bullpen.

The Rockies can put a substantial dent in the Giants playoff aspirations. Just think: winning the series by any means will push the Giants at least four games out of the race, a deficit that is (gasp!) bigger than the one the Rockies currently face in the division, and there are many who maintain that deficit is too steep already.

So how have those new shiny pieces helped the Giants' offense? Well, since the trade deadline, their team wOBA is .326, a step up from their .304 season mark, but it hasn't been Sanchez and Garko that have done it. They have a .306 and .282 mark since the trade respectively. Naturally, that's not the most important metric to measure by.

Since adding both players to their roster, the Giants are 10-8 . In 8 of those 18, the offense has failed to score more than 2 runs. Their August runs/game is up to 4.17 (their season mark is 3.98). So there's a slight improvement, and it will help when Sanchez returns tonight. He has missed 7 of the 20 games since he was acquired.

However, for reference, the Rockies offense has pumped out 6.06 runs/game in August, and 12 of 19 have been on the road. That has been inflated at Coors, but their 4.90 mark on the road far bests the Giants, and everyone here seems very worried about our offense...

Are the Giants improved enough? With 10 games left between the two teams, four this weekend, anything is possible. But I don't think (and never have) that their still anemic offense will be enough to knock off more complete teams. I'm not the only one. Rockies, make me right this weekend.

I encourage sparring with Gnat fans: McCovey Chronicles.

San Francisco Giants (66-55, L1, 3rd, 2 GB WC, 5 GB Div)

Friday-Monday: 4-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: D

I'm sorry, but an offense can't be any good with Bengie Molina STILL in the cleanup spot. His 82 OPS+ would place him as the 6th worst cleanup hitter since 1957. Even if the Giants win the Wild Card, Bruce Bochy should be DQed from Manager of the Year consideration on that fact alone, and I'm tempted to give them an F again. However, the rest of the lineup is indeed improved, as actually five hitters are above league average in wOBA.

But as I showed in the lead, they still aren't scoring runs (they scored one run in 3 of their last 4 games) and the two pieces they added to their 2nd-worst team-wOBA are not producing.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Eugenio Velez - LF	.300	3	14	.336	.438	.338
Freddy Sanchez - 2B	.297	7	39	.333	.433	.331
Pablo Sandoval - 3B	.327	18	70	.377	.545	.389
Bengie Molina - C	.259	15	63	.277	.431	.299
Ryan Garko - 1B	.276	11	47	.353	.429	.344
Aaron Rowand - CF	.275	10	48	.329	.437	.335
Nate Schierholtz - RF	.299	4	23	.326	.445	.327
Edgar Renteria - SS	.261	2	40	.314	.321	.282

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features one All-Star caliber players (Sandoval), one above average hitter (Garko), two slightly above average hitters (Rowand and Velez), two about average hitters (Sanchez and Schierholtz), and two hitters who "suck," as RMN described yesterday (Molin anad Renteria).

Juan Uribe (.277, 6, 28) is the utility infielder and Travis Ishikawa (.263, 8, 31) is back on the roster to spell Garko. Fred Lewis (.274, 4, 16) and Randy Winn (.269, 2, 45) are backup outfielders and both figure to start at least once in the series. Rookie Eli Whiteside (.225, 1, 7) is Molina's backup catcher.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups, injuries and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: A

Two of the Giants starters have not faced the Rockies this season. One has Cy Young hardware. The other (Saturday's starter) is just coming off of having his own hardware struck by a batted ball, forcing him to miss most of the season. Barry Zito is pitching a lot better and he had a dominating start vs the Rockies earlier this year. Jeo Martinez has been decent in his three starts. Sanchez has been solid in his six starts since the no-hitter. We do miss Matt Cain however. Also, the bullpen is exceptionally stable and strong.

Statistically speaking, the Giants lead MLB in shutouts and have the 3rd best pitching staff, according to Fangraphs, behind Boston and, ahem, Colorado. They lead MLB in K's (as if that were surprising), ERA, and complete games. Their ERA/FIP/tRA rotation split is 3.55/3.73/4.03, and only Barry Zito is "below average" per StatCorner. The bullpen is 3.30/3.67/3.98.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Brian Wilson	5-5	2.75	1.11	61	21

The bullpen composition hasn't changed since the last time the Giants were in town. The pen is anchored by closer Brian Wilson, followed by Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo and Bob Howry. Merkin Valdez, Justin Miller and Brandon Medders fill out the bullpen. Meddres and Valdez aren't very scary, but the other five have been good.

The D: B

The Giants have MLB 3rd best UZR/150, and only seven teams have made fewer errors. Fangraphs rates San Francisco's defense as #1 in MLB. However, a lot of that statistical benefit has come from Ishikawa and Winn, who aren't full-time starters anymore. Outside of them, every player in the lineup is either slightly above average or merely serviceable.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 7:10 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jonathan Sanchez	5-10	4.49	1.41	120	64

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Aaron Cook	10-5	4.31	1.46	75	44

Jonathan Sanchez can't pitch on the road. He's 1-8 with a 5.20 ERA on the road despite a .296 BABIP against. His worst start since his reinsertion to the rotation came at Coors Field July 25, but he's quietly turning his season around to the point where he's legitimately having a career year. Cook is coming off his worst start of the year and has allowed 5 HR in his past 3 starts. One important note: the Giants left Cincinnati yesterday afternoon, while the Rockies had to travel from Washington after a night game. That could affect the game. Cookie said he fixed his balance point problem, which apparently sabotaged his last start. If he has, this matchup favors the Rockies. Otherwise, I'm nervous about this one.

Saturday, August 22, 6:10 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Joe Martinez	3-1	4.76	1.71	10	6

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	11-8	4.58	1.39	140	57

Martinez was placed on the 60-day DL with a concussion after getting hit with a line drive off his head in Spring Training. The rookie hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any appearance, but then again, he hasn't gotten more than 15 outs in a game this year. He doesn't get a lot of strikeouts but is serviceable at the back end of the rotation. De la Rosa has allowed just 1 run in his last 13.2 IP, winning 9 of his last 10 starts and allowing 2 or less runs in 7 of 9 starts. The game will be broadcast on MLB Network.

Sunday, August 23, 1:10 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Tim Lincecum	12-3	2.37	1.04	207	46

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	11-9	3.41	1.23	145	64

This game should be on every sports channel except maybe YES. I thought Lincecum would fall apart this year or at least regress. He hasn't. There's not a whole lot to say. He's a stud. However, the Rockies have hit him harder than just about anyone in his career, and the Giants are just 2-3 in games he's started at Coors. So if you want a sliver of hope, there's that. Plus, he just got whipped up on by the only team with a worse wOBA than the Giants. The Rockies counter with their own OMGACE, who has thrown 8 straight quality starts. Ubaldo is quietly 4-0 with a 1.47 ERA in August.

Monday, August 24, 6:40 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Barry Zito	8-11	4.26	1.32	114	56

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jason Marquis	14-8	3.58	1.28	79	52

In his last 7 starts, Zito is 3-2 with a 2.36 ERA. He dominated the Rockies May 3 at AT&T. His WHIP and and ERA are coming down towards strong numbers, and he could certainly confuse Rockies hitters if he's on. As FooMan has shown, Marquis has not broken down in the second half. He has 9 quality starts in his 11 post-ASB starts, and the Rockies are 7-4 in his home starts.

My take

It's amazing how real life can play out like theater. The probable pitchers line up perfectly for three very competitive matchups that could easily go either way, making home field advantage key, though Colorado ought to win Saturday's game. With the Dodgers facing the bumbling Cubs in the meantime, the goal should be at least three wins, though a split is not debilitating. I think the Rockies take 3 and put the Giants behind the 8-ball.

Bengie Molina has four August HR, while Fred Lewis is 11-for-23 in August. Velez, Sanchez, Sandoval, Renteria and Schierholtz are all hitting over .300 this month, and Brian Wilson has allowed just one run since July 11.

Travis Ishikawa is only 4-for-22 this month and Freddy Sanchez has just 4 singles in his last 17 ABs.

Andres Torres (hamstring - 7/31) and Rich Aurilia (ankle - 8/12) are both on the 15-day DL. Noah Lowry (ribs) has been on the 60 day DL since at least Opening Week, and P Kelvin Pichardo (shoulder - 6/28), Randy Johnson (trapezius - 7/6) and Henry Sosa (shoulder - 8/5) are now keeping him company.

Poll

After this series, the Rockies will be leading San Fran by:

They won't: The Giants' offense will awaken at Coors, their pitching will dominate, and the Rockies will be looking up at SF after being swept.

34 votes

Zero: We manage to win just one game against the Giants.

24 votes

Two: The evenly matched teams split the series, prolonging the drama

82 votes

Four: With a series win 3-1, the Rockies put the Giants a ways back

142 votes

Six: Goodbye San Francisco. Getting swept at Coors pushes them on the brink.

33 votes

315 votes | Poll has closed

Lousy Lineup Optimizer: San Francisco Giants

devil_fingers — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 12:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Who would have thought that a team with a .264/.278/.439 cleanup hitter could wind up scoring so few runs?

Browse more photos »

The eight of you who are familiar with this series will remember that "Lousy" in the title does not necessarily refer to the lineup, but perhaps to the optimization procedure, or, as the "Optimizer" (me). The Giants have made some additions down the stretch (Ryan Garko and Freddy Sanchez) as they push for a wildcard spot. No, Garko and Sanchez aren't exactly mashers, and those trades were not exactly universally acclaimed. However, it is also true that in the short term they are better hitters than Travis Ishikawa and Emmanuel Burriss. But does the lineup still qualify as lousy? Since I agree with those who say we should look forward by checking out a player's "true talent" estimate (using past performance, age adjustment, environment, etc) rather than the past -- maybe not. And when I look at the ZipS RoS projections for the starters for the Giants, their average wOBA is about league-average.

That being said, as of this writing the Giants have the second least-productive offense in baseball at 96.8 park-adjusted Batting Runs below average. The SBNation Giants site, McCovey Chronicles, has "In play: Out(s)" as its (awesome) subtitle. And let's face it: I wanted to write about a team that actually is playing meaningful games at this point. Sure, over a full season, an optimized lineup will only probably only gain a team between 5 and 15 runs, so over these last six weeks, even 4 runs would be a miracle. But, hey, teams spend a lot of resources on trades that accomplish a lot less than that. Why not do something that will help you team win that won't cost you anything more?

But this all pales in comparison to the biggest justification for this column: any team using Bengie Molina as their everyday cleanup hitter definitely could be getting more out of their batting order.

Lineup Optimization by The Book

This is the fourth in an occasional series have been writing batting orders of particular teams. The general principles are largely drawn from The Book, which is worth checking out on this and many other topics. Sky Kalkman gives a good, brief rundown in this article. While there is already good stuff out there, I like to do this things for myself.

Here are a few of the guidelines (with my own twists). Yes, there is a lot of stuff here... Feel free to skim or skip this stuff and browse down to the "Getting to the Point" section, although if you aren't somewhat familiar with The Book's ideas on lineup optimization, it's at least worth skimming this section.

"It's all relative." Although this isn't directly stated in The Book or in any of the summaries I've seen, I think it's worth noting: the appropriate spot in the batting order for any particular player is relative. People talk about having a "true leadoff man" or a "#4 hitter" or that a player has a swing that's just perfect for hitting #2 or whatever. But the truth is, a player's "best" place in a lineup depends on his skills relative to the other players.
Where should the best hitter hit? The best five hitters (by wOBA or equivalent stat (e.g., not OPS) should be in the top five spots. Of those 5, generally, the best hitters will be in the #1, #2, and #4 spots. Ideally, of these three the hitter in the #1 spot will have the best OBP, the #4 hitter will have the most power, and the #2 hitter will be somewhere in between (relative to the #1 and #4 hitters). The best hitter will probably be in the #2 or #4 spot. The fourth and fifth best hitters will be in the #5 and #3 spots, respectively. Yes, you read that right: the #3 hitter's only advantage in run expectancy over #5 is in home runs. Of the top five spots, this is where you want your low-OBP slugger. As we'll see, platoon issues can make getting the best into the ## 1,2 and 4 slots tough, but getting them into the top 5 is pretty close.
The other half: In slots ##6-9, simply go in descending order of hitter quality, keeping in mind:
Platoon issues: Separating lefties takes a certain precedence, since this prevents the opposing team from leveraging LHPs against your lefties, who generally have bigger platoon splits. Moreover, given platoon splits (more on how these are generated in the next section), different batting orders against RHP and LHP are in order (har har). This also means that if your best hitters are lefties, they may not get into the "ideal" spots next to each other.
Can pinch hitting help? Note that in the chapter on platoons, the authors of The Book show that pinch hitting to gain the platoon advantage really doesn't solve this and other problems since the penalty pinch hitters suffer from the difficulty of hitting off of the bench offsets the platoon advantage they might gain.
Speed on the bases: Baserunning and basestealing are important, but are difficult to place, since often (but not always) the same players are good at both. In general, you want good baserunners (aside from stealing -- those good at taking the extra base, scoring from first on a double, etc.) in front of good contact hitters who can "move them over." Basestealers are best leveraged in front of poor hitters who have trouble moving them over. In both cases, if possible, avoid putting these players in front of high-power hitters, since this negates the advantage of those skills. So while your good baserunner might best be utilized at the top of the order (e.g., in front of a #2 hitter with moderate power), your best basestealer will likely be best utilized in further down the order in front of poor hitters -- say, in the #5 or #6 spot.
The Jim Rice Effect. Some spots have a greater odds of facing double play situations. The spot that sees the most DP situations is #3 by far, followed by #2. Therefore, try to avoid having high GDP players in those spots. The spot that sees the least (particularly in the NL) is the leadoff spot. So some times if you have an excellent hitter who also hits into a good number of DPs, even if he is slow, it might be worth it to move him into the leadoff spot.
Movin' on up: The "second leadoff hitter" theory has some validity -- having a #9 hitter who can "set the table" for the top of the order does increase run expectancy, so putting the worst hitter 8th sometimes helps. However, this worst hitter has to be really, really horrible in order for the advantage to obtain. In other words, in National League parks, hitting the pitcher 8th is the smart move according to The Book, although it is worth noting that Tom Tango wrote the chapter on lineups, and Mitchel Litchman (aka "MGL") is more circumspect regarding the value of the pitcher hitting 8th.
Remember that who is in the lineup is much more important that what order it goes in. So relax -- despite my nitpicking over two points of wOBA here and there, it really doesn' t matter that much. But it sure is fun to quibble...

Projected Stats, Sources, and Ground Rules for this Series

Who gets in? Again ultimately, who is in the lineup is more important than what order they go in. Having said that, in this occasional series my focus is opposite issue -- the order. So I'm generally going to accept whatever group of players the manager is throwing out there, whether I think it is the right group or not. I won't always get this right, since lineups change day-to-day depending on how players are feelings, how much acid reflux the manager had the night before, etc.
Where are those numbers coming from?, the basics: For each posts raw batting stats, I'll either use projections from one or more of the more popular projection systems (CHONE, ZiPS, PECOTA, or maybe even in-season Marcels), or if it's a "reader request" and the requester wants to submit his or her own numbers, that's fine, too. This far into the year, the beginning of the season projections are still pretty good, but some players are peforming differently enough (or are getting more PAs than expected) that our projections change. For wOBA/AVG/OBP/SLG stats for this column on the Giants, I'll be using the handy ZiPS In-Season projections ("RoS") as listed at FanGraphs on Sunday August the 16th. For steals, I'm generating the runs above average per ~150 games from ZiPS preseason projections for reasons we can get into in the comments if you really want to...
Who is the better hitter? From these stats, I will generate a wOBA (if it isn't done already, such as at FanGraphs) for each player. wOBA (weighted on-base average), for those who don't know, is the total offensive value stat that has taken the baseball internet by storm. Introduced by the authors of The Book and invented by Tom Tango, wOBA takes care of all the problems OPS had in terms of the weighting of OBP and SLG, doubles and home runs. It's roughly on an OBP scale, so something between .330-.340 is about average. For the version used at FanGraphs, .330 was about the MLB nonpitcher average in 2008. You can read more around the 'net, but in short: if one player has a better wOBA than another, he's a more productive hitter, period. wOBA for players can be found at FanGraphs and Stat Corner, for now, and probably more places as time moves on...
What about platoon splits? As The Book also explains (I'm telling you, you really should read it!), while each player has his own platoon split, it takes a lot longer than you would think to establish it -- it takes about 2,000 PAs against LHP for right-handed hitters to be able to say with some degree of confidence what their platoon split is -- so that's means only guys in the league a long time. For left-handed hitters, since there is more variability, it doesn't take as long -- about 1,000 PAs. Still, only veterans really get that far. Until then, most players should be assumed to have the league average platoon split. So, following the procedure used in by the authors for earlier years, I took the average wOBA and OBP splits for the 2005-2008 AL (it was easier to exclude pitchers that way) and applied them to each player. The only stats I will be adjusting this for are wOBA and OBP. BA, SLG, ISO are the generic ones, just to get a sense of the "kind" of hitter a guy is, obviously, those will change, too. but are harder to adjust for generically. In the "vs. RHP" and "vs. LHP" lineups, the wOBA and OBP figures are adjusted for league-average splits, and are thus italicized. [For more on estimating platoon skills, read this.]
What about Stolen Bases? I took the linear weights SB/CS runs projected by ZiPS before the season and prorated for ~600 PAs.
And baserunning? A bit more complicated... In the previous installments, I used Baseball Prospectus' EQBRR stats minus the stolen basees component. But I realized that what we're really looking here is just the runners ability to advance on hits, so starting with the Giants, I'm just using the EqHAR component. I did a primitive Marcels-type projection with them, without age adjustments, but with regression incorporating the Speed Score listed in the CHONE projections. Just to get a feel for the relative abilty of the baserunners, I projected runs values above/below average per 50 advancement opportunities. The listed numbers are projected baserunning runs above/below average per 600 PAs.
How about grounding into double plays? In short, the new Baseball Reference came out with information on GiDPs, opps, league averages and stuff. So I was able to do another pseudo-Marcel. The number listed is the GiDP runs above (avoided) or below (grounded into ) average per 600 PAs, normalized for the average number of opportunities seen over 600 PAs from 2005-2008.

Getting to the Point

Below are the raw, un-platooned stats projected as of August 16, 2009 for the Giants from the ZiPS RoS projections at FanGraphs with some other stuff. I had a hard time figuring out who the Giants were going to start in left field. I originally did the lineups with Fred Lewis in LF (he's a really good baserunner, by the way), but a commentator in another thread said Nate Schierholtz was probably going to be getting most of the starts, so I subbed him in (his projection is also better than Lewis's). I hope I didn't screw too much stuff up. Below is something like a recent Giant batting order according to baseball-reference.com, except with Nate Schierholtz hitting in the #1 place instead of Velez.

2009 pseudo-Giants Batting Order 2009 ZiPS In=Season Projections + Some Other Stuff
Player	Pos.		wOBA	BA	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Nate Schierholtz	LF	L	.341	.300	.328	.464	.164	0.2	0.4	1.3
Freddy Sanchez	2B	R	.324	.291	.335	.437	.146	1.1	-0.5	-0.1
Pablo Sandoval	3B	S	.359	.301	.337	.503	.202	-0.2	-0.5	0.1
Bengie Molina	C	R	.309	.277	.299	.416	..139	-2.2	0.0	-1.8
Ryan Garko	1B	R	.336	.270	.345	.413	.143	-1.9	0.0	0.5
Randy Winn	RF	S	.327	.279	.337	.396	.117	0.6	1.6	1.2
Aaron Rowand	CF	R	.332	.275	.335	.423	.148	0.0	-0.7	-1.5
Edgar Renteria	SS	R	.305	.269	.323	.359	.090	0.1	-0.5	-1.7
Pitcher

What's that? You actually want to see an optimized batting order?

Optimized Giants Batting Order vs. RHP
Player	Pos.	Bts	*wOBA*	AVG	*OBP*	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Aaron Rowand	CF	R	0.327	.275	.329	.423	.148	0.0	-0.7	-1.5
Nate Schierholtz	LF	L	0.350	.300	.338	.464	.164	0.2	0.4	1.3
Ryan Garko	1B	R	0.331	.270	.339	.413	.143	-1.9	0.0	0.5
Pablo Sandoval	3B	S	0.359	.301	.337	.503	.202	-0.2	-0.5	0.1
Randy Winn	RF	S	0.327	.279	.337	.396	.117	0.6	1.6	1.2
Freddy Sanchez	2B	R	0.319	.291	.329	.437	.146	1.1	-0.5	-0.1
Bengie Molina	C	R	0.304	.277	.294	.416	.139	-2.2	0.0	-1.8
Pitcher
Edgar Renteria	SS	R	0.300	0.269	0.317	0.359	0.090	0.1	0.3	-1.7

[Only the columns in italics are adjusted for league-average platoon splits.]

Comment: Whatever other problems one might have putting together a batting order for the Giants, having too many good left-handed hitters isn't one of them. Seriously, in some lineups, all the best hitters are lefties, so it makes it impossible to get them in the 1, 2, and 4 spots. Anyway, after adjusting for average platoon splits, the three best Giants hitters (projected) vs. RHP are Sandoval, Schierholtz, and Garko, followed by Rowand and Winn in a tie. The first inclination, given the various wOBA, OBP, ISO, and baserunning numbers, was to put Schierholtz #1, Garko #2, Sandoval #4, and then have Rowand hit #3 (he has a higher ISO than Randy Winn, and the #3 hitter sees the most 2-out PAs, so more HR power is important in that spot), and put Winn, the closest thing this lineup has to a basetealer, #5. However, If you look at Rowand's numbers, he's absolutely dreadful when it comes to grounding into the double play, and the #3 spot sees the most GDP opportunities, by far. By putting him in the #1 spot, we avoid that (particularly with OBP wizards like Molina and Renteria at the bottom of the order), and both Garko and Schierholtz have been better than average at avoiding it. That probably saves as many or more runs than any other single betting order move. The #2 and #4 hitters are to be of the same quality, and maybe Scheirholtz would have just as much power as Sandoval if we adjusted those numbers for platoon splits. Plus, Schierhotlz isn't exactly projected to be a walks machine. But I finaly decided that Sandoval is just a bit of a surer bet for power and "moving guys over," but I can see it either way. And, yes, either guy (or any number of Giants) would be an upgrade of Bengie Freaking Molina hitting cleanip. You could also make the argument for switching Garko and Schierholtz, given how well Nate avoids the GDP. It's all pretty close. Finally , having Winn hit #5 allows his decent base stealing to be leveraged in front of the terrible hitters behind him so he can get into scoring position for the occasional Sanchez single vs. RHP.

Optimized Giants Batting Order vs. LHP
Player	Pos.	Bts	*wOBA*	AVG	*OBP*	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Aaron Rowand	CF	R	0.348	.275	.355	.423	.148	0.0	-0.7	-1.5
Ryan Garko	1B	R	0.352	.270	.363	.413	.143	-1.9	0.0	0.5
Freddy Sanchez	2B	R	0.340	.291	.353	.437	.146	1.1	-0.5	-0.1
Pablo Sandoval	3B	S	0.359	.301	.337	.503	.202	-0.2	-0.5	0.1
Randy Winn	RF	S	0.327	.279	.337	.396	.117	0.6	1.6	1.2
Bengie Molina	C	R	0.324	.277	.315	.416	.139	-2.2	0.0	-1.8
Nate Schierholtz	LF	L	0.323	.300	.312	.464	.164	0.2	0.4	1.3
Pitcher
Edgar Renteria	SS	R	0.320	.269	.340	.359	.090	0.1	0.3	-1.7

[Only the columns in italics are adjusted for league-average platoon splits.]

Comment: If nothing else, these guys should smash LHP. And I was also easily able to slot the guys with the three best wOBA vs. LHP in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. That is so rare and exciting that I'll leave it to you to decide whether switching Sanchez and Garko in order to better utilize Garko's better HR power (although not ISO in general, oddly), ability to avoid the DP, and Sanchez's baserunning better. Rowand again stays at leadoff, since GDP ability doesn't Platoon." And ##6-9 easily go in descending order of wOBA. I do go against The Book by having a better hitter at the #3 spot than the #5 spot, but Winn's speed is a bit wasted in front of Sandoval, and his despite Renteria and Molina being almost league average against LHP, I'm going to guess they'll still need his help to get into him into scoring position. Keep in mind that not everyone agrees with having the pitcher hit #8, but it works either way.

Final Thoughts:

I don't know if anyone reads these, or if those who do actually enjoy them, but I like putting them together (although it takes a lot longer than you would think). Remember that these are just suggestions. They are worth debating in a friendly manner, and trying out in different combinations. I don't have a sophisticated simulator to try these out on. I know that Baseball Musings has one, but it doesn't take baserunning, platoon splits, and GDPs, etc. into account, although if you want to compare these and other lineups using such a simulator, it would be interesting to compare the results.

And if through some strange twist of fate, it somehow leads to Bengie Molina not hitting cleanup, then all this work will have been be worth it.

Update August 19, 2009, 4:11 P.M. EST: Just realized that I made a small mistake -- Sandoval (whom, I should note, looks like a surefire superstar with those sorts of numbers at age 22) is actually a switch-hitter. It doesn't really make a difference for the orders. I just changed his numbers back to "even" for platoon splits. Sorry, Giants fans, no disrespect intended, the kid is a stud.

Help me, Giants Fans! With Grumblings on Rios (sigh), Thome, and none on Strasburg

devil_fingers — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 20:10:28 -0000

A (self-promoting) reminder: Only does Driveline have it's own Twitter feed, but you can also follow me, devil_fingers, on Twitter as well for additional cleverness. For example, check this recent awesome tweet from me. That's the kind of exclusive brilliance you'll get pretty much every day if you follow me.

Help me, Giants fans and followers! I'm working on batting order optimization stuff for the Giants, but I'm a bit flummoxed about what the starting outfield is when everyone is healthy. I know that managers don't always put the best players out there, but I want to use the guys who are the nominal starters and optimize that group rather than argue about who "should" be starting. The outfield I have at the moment is Fred Lewis (LF), Aaron Rowand (CF), and Randy Winn (RF). But these guys haven't played much together recently. What's gong on? What's up with Eugenio Velez getting so many starts recently? What is Nate Schierholtz's role? Are the other guys hurt, just getting more rest? Is it okay if I assume that Lewis-Rowand-Winn is the primary starting OF down the stretch. If not, who should it be? Yes, I've looked around the internet, and just can't figure it out. I guess I'm too dumb. I'd really like it to be Lewis-Rowand-Winn given the time and effort I've spend estimating their baserunning and GDP skills ( also happen to believe this gives the Giants the best chance ot win), but if I have to make changes for Schierholtz and/or (shudder) Velez, I will. To repeat, I want to know who likely will play, not who should play.

After the jump: notes on some (somewhat) recent notes from Jayson Stark (Strasburg-free content!).

Rios the Underachiever: Sorry come back to Alex Rios after the topic's been beat into the ground on the internet the last week or so, but I when I read Stark's column, I couldn't help myself. It seems like there's a higher than usual amount of quotes about player "attitude" in quotes from (predictably) anonymous players, executives, and scouts in this Stark column. I'm not going after Stark on this one. It's his job to report this stuff. Without going through all of it (predictable "John Smoltz would be a great veteran influence on a young team!" and "Vincente Padilla is a loose cannon!" stuff), what caught my eye were the quotes on the recently-waived-and-claimed Alex Rios. Here are three quotes from ex-teammates from Stark's column followed by one from a scout:

• "He's not a winning-type player. He's a guy who just doesn't have that burning desire to win, or be great."

• "He was a guy who just didn't go after it. He'd be sleeping in his locker 10 minutes before he had to go out on the field. And not just once."

• "He wasn't the same player after he got that [seven-year] contract. It sure seemed like he was a lot more motivated when he was looking for a contract than he was since he got the contract."

Meanwhile, scouts we surveyed seemed dubious, too.

"This guy should be a perennial 30-30 [HR-SB] guy," said one. "But to me, he's a classic underachiever. If Ozzie takes the wrong approach, he's going to lose him. He's a guy you've got to go real slow with. But whether Ozzie has that kind of patience, boy, I don't know."

As tired as the "the guy just doesn't care" stuff is, the saber-backlash against it is also a bit played out. I don't want to totally dismiss the personal accounts of people in the game. Still, I'm curious. Who are the ex-teammates? Are they still with the Blue Jays? Maybe it's guys who played with him on Toronto but aren't there any more (Scott Rolen, Internet Sensation Gregg Zaun (a d_f favorite for a long time)? Former Locker Room Leader and Dry Erase Board Poet Shea Hillenbrand? When I hear phrases like "winning-type player" the first thing I think of is Willie Bloomquist's signing with the Royals... but that's another dead horse. Maybe Rios is sleeping in his locker because of "flu-like symptoms" (ahem). But the best one is the ex-teammates who said Rios wasn't the same after the new contract. The contract was signed in April 2008 (the beginning of the season). Here are Rios' seasonal WAR values from 2006 through 2008: 3.3. in 2006, 4.6 in 2007, and 5.5 in 2008. So after he "wasn't the same guy," he was among the best outfielders in baseball.

I remember hearing a lot of the same things about Robinson Cano who, after a 5 win 2007, got an extension before the 2008 season, then had a down season. Everyone said it was because they gave him the extension too early and that he backed off. Well, what do you know, still living off the guaranteed money, Cano has bounced back big time this season.

Maybe these guys got complacent or maybe they didn't. It will be interesting to watch. To me, it seems like Rios is just having a down year, and that the best bet is that he's around a 3.5 WAR player going forward (with the "normal " 0.5 WAR a year decline). I guess we'll see. Maybe he'll return to 2008 form, and we'll get a string of "change of scenery" or "Ozzie's a motivational genius!" stories. You know, because it couldn't just be that he was that good all along and 2009 was a deviation...

Thome (and friend): To end on a more positive note Stark notes that despite his age, Jim Thome still looks to be one of the better free agent DH options out there in free agency. And, hey, when I was doing some early projections for 2009-10 free agency, guess what? Thome was tied for the best 1B/DH out there at about 2.4 WAR.

Who was Thome tied with? You guessed it, your hero and mine

Russ F---ing Branyan

NL West Report: Talent in, Talent out at the trade deadline.

Rox Girl — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 01:30:57 -0000

The good news for competitors in the NL West this week is that none of their rivals added what we would consider a major impact talent at the trade deadline along the lines of a Cliff Lee, Matt Holliday or Victor Martinez, the bad news is that this means that neither did they, leaving the division in pretty much the same state it was last week save for the one team at the very bottom, who did wind up making a very interesting move on Friday. The overall talent flow still seems to be flowing into the division rather than out, however, and the division as a whole still seems to be on the ascent.

NL West Report

San Francisco (58-47, t-2nd, W2, 7.0 GB)

Last Week: 6-1. 3-0 vs. Pirates, 3-1 vs Phillies. At some point you've just got to forget the projections and say a team is what it is. The Giants really seem to be that team this year, similar to the 2007 Diamondbacks, where they are combining some excellence in pitching with a favorable circumstance or two (in this case a deadly home field advantage) to mask over their flaws. While sweeping a rebuilding Pirates team isn't a huge accomplishment, taking three of four against the defending world champions is. The Giants are a very real threat, but an up and down one.

Pace: 86-76.

Divisional Change: Gained 3.0 games.

This Week:

News: The Giants were the most active NL West squad at the deadline, acquiring Ryan Garko from the Indians in exchange for Scott Barnes and Freddy Sanchez from the Pirates in exchange for Tim Alderson. Both prospects were immediately downgraded by pundits from potential aces to potential fifth starters after the transactions.

Ryan Garko

#23 / First Base / San Francisco Giants

Height: 6-2

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 02, 1981

Freddy Sanchez

#21 / Second Base / San Francisco Giants

Height: 5-10

Weight: 190

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Dec 21, 1977

Kidding about that last part, sort of. Barnes wouldn't have been a name most Giants fans would recognize, but he's a decent LHP prospect a bit beyond the Keith Weiser level but quite a bit below the Bumgarner level. With Barnes and Connor Graham added to their pitching depth the last couple of weeks, the Indians have put quite a dent on the starting talent in the Cal League's North division. I was curious about the amount of articles downplaying Alderson that came after the trade compared to the hype he was getting before it.

Grant's reactions to both trades at McCovey Chronicles were suspiciously understated:

Sanchez

Garko

Clearly something's up with these players that they're not telling us about, like how they wouldn't tell us that Fred Lewis will eat the children of Rockies fans if we let them stay out to late or how Pedro Feliz was able to control the forces of nature of his mind as long as he wore a Giants uniform and the Giants were playing the Rockies. You're not fooling me this time Grant, word to Rockies pitchers: approach these two players like you would Babe Ruth. If Babe Ruth was alive. And not really old.

Players Gained:

Freddy Sanchez
Ryan Garko

Players Lost:

Tim Alderson (AA)
Scott Barnes (A+)

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS INJURIES

15-DAY

PLAYER	INJURY TYPE	INJURY DATE
Rich Aurilia	toe	07/21/2009
Nate Schierholtz	hip	07/27/2009
Andres Torres	hamstring	07/31/2009

60 DAY DL / OUT FOR THE SEASON

PLAYER	INJURY TYPE	INJURY DATE
Randy Johnson	trapezius	07/06/2009
Noah Lowry	ribs	03/27/2009
Kelvin Pichardo	shoulder	06/28/2009
Joe Martinez	concussion	04/10/2009

Arizona (46-59, 4th, W1, 19.0 GB)

Last Week: 3-3. 1-2 vs Phillies, 2-1 @ Mets.

Pace:

Divisional Change: Gained 0.5 games.

This Week: The Snakes wrap up a long road trip with three game series @ Pittsburgh and @ Washington

News: The Diamondbacks had a quiet week leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline, but general manager Josh Byrnes expects August's waiver trade market to be active.

Brandon Webb finally decided to undergo the knife to fix his ailing shoulder, but no timetable has been established for when he is expected to return to the mound. Will the Diamondbacks pick up his $8.5 million option for 2010? Byrnes is taking a wait and see approach.

Brandon Webb

#17 / Pitcher / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height:6-2

Weight:230

Bats:R

Throws:R

Born:May 09, 1979

Steve Gilbert writes that Byrnes' faith in his core is a large part of the reason why the trade deadline was so quiet for Arizona:

"There are a lot of components there that we think are real positives," Byrnes said. "I think a lot of the pieces to get back to winning are already in place."

Certainly Justin Upton has to be a major component that Byrnes is thinking of, AZ Snakepit's Jim McClennan took a look at the elite club the phenom's track thus far puts him in.

The Snakes are negotiating with Daniel Cabrera for added pitching depth

Added Comment: Arizona remains a flawed team for 2010 until it gets the pitching ironed out, but a very dangerous one for 2009. The fact that they didn't sell off at the deadline doesn't leave them nearly as weak as other non-contenders. I'm relieved that the Rockies only have six more games against this team compared to nine for the Giants and ten for the Dodgers, because it really looks like they've finally righted the ship in Phoenix. Over the last thirty games, the D-backs have scored the fourth most runs in the NL in going 16-14. Other key potential spoiler series for Arizona will be in Philadelphia at the end of August and at Chicago for the last series of the season in October.

Players Gained:

Brandon Allen (AAA)
Cole Gillespie (AAA)
Roque Mercedes (AA)

Players Lost:

Felipe Lopez
Tony Pena

Arizona Diamondbacks Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Eric Byrnes	hand	06/26/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Tom Gordon	hamstring	05/04/2009
Conor Jackson	pneumonia	05/12/2009
Brandon Webb	shoulder	04/07/2009

Los Angeles (62-36, 1st, L1)

Last Week: 3-4. 1-3 vs Cardinals. 2-1 vs Braves. The Dodgers road trip started out poorly against Matt Holliday and the Cardinals, but much like the Rockies, the Dodgers finished well, going over the last four games of the trip, against much tougher competition than we had to face.

Pace:

Divisional Change: Lost 0.5 games to Colorado and 3.0 games to San Francisco

This Week: The Dodgers return home where they will face a Brewers team (3 games) that's been caught in a rut for much of the last two months and then get a four game set against the Braves who will want revenge for losing a series in Atlanta this weekend.

News: The Dodgers had been rumored for much of last week to be in on every prominent trade target supposedly available, and apparently came close to reeling in Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell in a mega deal with the Padres. Unwilling to part with prize major league talent such as Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw (wisely, I might add, Kershaw's change-up is starting to be as devastating as his fastball and curve) Los Angeles wound up making one major move, trading minor leaguers Josh Bell and Steve Johnson for Orioles closer George Sherrill.

George Sherrill

#0 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 6-0

Weight: 230

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Apr 19, 1977

The Dodgers made one other minor depth move to clear a roster space for Sherrill, trading Claudio Vargas to Milwaukee for catcher Vinny Rottino. Rottino actually has an engaging baseball biography, as he was an undrafted free agent out of college and wound up getting signed out of a try-out camp. He caught for team Italy in the WBC this Spring. Still, not going to supplant team Canada's catcher anytime soon.

Even with the Sherrill addition, Los Angeles continues to wage a war against an unseen and unknown enemy as the workload for their young pitching continues to mount. Chad Billingsley seemed like he might be the latest to succumb when he was pulled from Sunday night's start with what turned out to be just a case of leg cramps. Rockies and Giants fans are all hoping this menace proves more real than it has, but that just might be wishful thinking on our parts. Sherrill hasn't been the only cavalry to arrive to rescue Los Angeles' young arms, as both Jason Schmidt and Hong Chi Kuo made returns from long injury absences this week.

Eric Stephen's monthly reviews are always worth reading to catch up on the rest of the Dodgers news.

Players Gained:

George Sherrill
Vinny Rottino (AA)

Players Lost:

Josh Bell
Steve Johnson
Claudio Vargas

Los Angeles Dodgers Injuries

Probable

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Chad Billingsley	hamstring	08/03/2009

Questionable

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Casey Blake	wrist	08/03/2009

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Will Ohman	shoulder	05/28/2009
Ronald Belisario	elbow	07/06/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Eric Milton	lower-back	06/28/2009
Doug Mientkiewicz	shoulder	04/17/2009
Xavier Paul	ankle	05/21/2009

San Diego (43-63, 5th, W2, 22.0 GB)

Last Week: 5-2. 3-1 @ Reds, 2-1 vs Brewers. Visiting Cincinnati has become a medicinal spa retreat for ailing NL West teams, as the Padres and Rockies combined to go 6-1 against the hapless Reds. San Diego carried their winning ways home with them against the Brewers.

Pace:

Divisional Change: Gained 2.0 games.

This Week: Braves (3 games) fans and Mets (4 games) fans will learn just how easy it is to go into PETCO Park and win series.

News: The Padres traded away their erstwhile ace Jake Peavy to the Chicago White Sox in the trade deadline's most surprising move. Peavy must have felt like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day in getting a chance to change a decision he made two months ago, for whatever reason, the White Sox held more appeal this time around.

Coming back from Chicago are four of the White Sox better prospects in Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Dexter Carter and Adam Russell. This move was typical of other blockbusters in 2009, where the selling team generally walked away with the buying team's quality depth, but not their creme de la creme as far as talent is concerned.

jbox gets oddly, I don't know, pragmatic, in his review of the trade at Gaslamp Ball.

Clayton Richard

#41 / Pitcher / San Diego Padres

Height: 6-5

Weight: 240

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Sep 12, 1983

The Heath Bell/Adrian Gonzalez trade to the Dodgers wasn't the only big deadline deal that San Diego was involved in that fell through, apparently there was also a blockbuster that could have send Gonzalez to Seattle, Felix Hernandez to the Red Sox, and a bushel of prospects to the Padres that got nixed by the Mariners. The day was so busy, that Kevin Towers told the LA Times Bill Shaiken:

"It's almost comical," he said. "I wish we had a video camera in there. You tend to worry about everything moving so fast."

Players Lost:

Players Gained:

Ryan Webb (AAA)
Craig Italiano (A+)
Sean Gallagher
Aaron Poreda
Clayton Richard
Dexter Carter
Adam Russell
Oscar Salazar

San Diego Padres Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Chris Young	shoulder	06/15/2009
Nick Hundley	forearm	06/18/2009
Brian Giles	knee	06/19/2009
Edgar Gonzalez	concussion	07/19/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Mark Worrell	elbow	03/27/2009
Cha Seung Baek	forearm	03/30/2009
Shawn Hill	elbow	04/26/2009
Cliff Floyd	shoulder	06/18/2009

Poll

Which NL West team helped itself the most via non-waiver trades?

Arizona: The D-backs didn't sell low on their players and added a couple of key parts for 2010 and beyond.

3 votes

Colorado: The Rockies major weakness was the bullpen and they addressed it without giving up top ten prospects.

98 votes

Los Angeles: The Dodgers got the one elite reliever dealt this year.

22 votes

San Francisco: The Giants held onto most of their elite prospects, including their very best, and still added the bats they needed.

90 votes

San Diego: The Padres were in desperate need of restocking the system and added a boatload of talented young arms.

29 votes

242 votes | Poll has closed

Matt Cain and the Giants slay the unable Rockies, 3-1

Rox Girl — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 04:09:30 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

5 months ago: San Francisco Giants' Matt Cain, left, is tagged out after sliding past second base while trying to turn a single into a double by Colorado Rockies second baseman Ian Stewart in the third inning of a baseball game in Denver, Friday, July 24, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

Fred Lewis gets on my nerves. Three for three a walk, a double, a triple, two runs scored. He now is nine for eighteen against the Rockies this season, against everybody else he hits .232. It's like when Pedro Feliz left the Giants he bestowed his Rockie slaying powers on Lewis. It must be an amulet or something. Nate Schierholtz hit a home run off of Jason Hammel. Matt Cain pitched well and Pablo Sandoval made a couple of nice plays to save him.

Ian Stewart looked good at the plate. Todd Helton was mostly patient. Garrett Atkins did come up with one big double in the sixth, but there was no follow through as Brad Hawpe struck out after him, everybody else on offense provided fodder for the lowlight reel. Pitching by Hammel and company was decent, holding the opposition to three runs at Coors Field is usually a recipe for success, tonight we ran into a Matt Cain sized wall. Rafael Betancourt made his debut appearance with the Rockies and pitched a scoreless ninth inning. The Rockies now find themselves at 52-44 and tied with the Giants for the wild card lead.

52 - 44

Games Back: 9.5

Streak: Lost 1

Games Left: 66

We need to come back and win these next two, as this sort of struggle could lead to a full blown slump pretty quickly.

via www.fangraphs.com

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The Wild Card Lead is on the line at Coors this weekend. Sort of.

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:41:32 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

This picture amused me. If Sandoval makes the Hall of Fame someday, I nominate this as a model for his statue.

Browse more photos »

Little Giant series

I don't know about you, but I circled today's date on my calendar at the All-Star break. The Rockies had pulled within 2 games of the wild card leading Giants, and this weekend was the chance to take over the lead at home. Of course, that's not the storyline anymore, but at least it's not because we were the ones to blow up over the past week.

We probably should have known - at the ASB, no team in MLB baseball had won more home games than the Giants. They were padding their record at AT&T and struggling on the road. So naturally, the Giants dropped 5 of 7 on the road to begin the season's second half while the Rockies won 5 of 7.

The result: not only have the Rockies caught the Giants, but we are a full game ahead of them. At this point, the only way we aren't at least tied for the WC lead is if the Giants sweep us. Even losing the series 2-1 results in a tie.

Adding to the loss of luster for the series would be two MIA All-Star pitchers. Jason Marquis has been scratched from tonight's start due to lingering blister issues, and Tim Lincecum is not scheduled to start this weekend.

So with some of the juiciness dried up, is it time for a letdown? Not likely. While we might have been looking forward to this showdown of a series, the Rockies were taking care of business against lesser opponents. And of course, these games are still important, as there is only a shaky one game lead in hand, and we have the charging Braves, Marlins, Astros and Cubs to deal with. Plus the Dodgers have won five straight, so there must be not mercy on the Giants if there are still any pipedreams of making up nine games on Los Angeles.

The Giants have won 3 of the 5 games in the season series so far, so after this series, there's still 10 head-to-head games among the 64 left, so while important, this weekend will be far from deciding anything. It would still be nice to knock them 4 games off the pace though.

If you have been overwhelmed by how busy the Row has been lately, check out McCovey Chronicles, the NL West's beacon of bustling activity.

San Francisco Giants (51-44, W1, 3rd, 1 GB WC, 10 GB Div)

Friday-Sunday: 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: F

The Rockies are hitting .259, good for 17th in MLB - the Giants slide in at .258, 18th in MLB. Surprised? I was too - then again, batting average isn't everything. San Fran has scored just 384 runs, 5th worst in the majors. They did themselves no favors by scoring 16 runs in the 7 games since the All-Star Break. They have also managed just 63 home runs, 10 worse than every MLB team sans the almighty Mets.

Most telling is their team wOBA of .302, powered by a league-worst .307 OBP. Their Fangraphs hitting value puts them at -77.0 runs, dead last in the majors by a wide margin. So basically, they can get singles, but can't hit home runs and can't get on base. And aside from the Kung Fu Panda, there isn't a single hitter in the lineup that is more of a threat than Dexter Fowler (seriously - cross-reference wOBAs). And this is despite playing in a hitters' park - yes, AT&T Park has a Park Factor of 102 historically, 103 this year. It kills home runs but inflates everything else. No excuses.

Bruce Bochy has a musical chairs project of six outfielders for the three outfield spots, while his starting shortstop and center fielder have been injred recently. Both should return this weekend. Alas, it makes it difficult to know what Bochy's A lineup is, but here's a guess:

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Randy Winn - LF	.278	2	38	.324	.391	.319
Edgar Renteria - SS	.254	2	38	.308	.316	.279
Pablo Sandoval - 3B	.322	15	56	.371	.551	.390
Bengie Molina - C	.267	11	50	.279	.437	.303
Nate Schierholtz - RF	.291	3	19	.319	.413	.313
Aaron Rowand - CF	.274	9	41	.334	.436	.338
Travis Ishikawa - 1B	.262	7	30	.314	.413	.315
Matt Downs - 2B	.186	1	2	.280	.302	.261

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features one All-Star caliber players (Sandoval), one slightly above average hitter (Rowand), four below average (Winn, Schierholtz, Molina and Ishikawa), and bad hitter (Renteria) and one absolutely terrible hitter (Downs).

Juan Uribe (.294, 4, 21) is the utility infielder. John Bowker (4-for-28, 1 HR) can play first base or outfield, while Fred Lewis (.243, 4, 12) and Andres Torres (.239, 2, 11) are backup outfielders. Bowker , Lewis, Torres, and Schierholtz have played musical chairs for one outfield spot, or more during injuries. Rookie Eli Whiteside (.231, 0, 3) is Molina's backup catcher.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: A-

The Giants are tied with the Dodgers in leading MLB with a 3.57 ERA. They lead the league by a ridiculously large margin in strikeouts with 756. They are tops on the leaderboards in complete games and shutouts. Then again, almost half of their rotation value comes from Tim Lincecum, who we will miss in the series. Thus, Timcecum will be factored out in rating the staff. Overall, the rotation has an ERA/FIP/tRA split of 3.67/3.79/4.16, while their bullpen comes in at 3.37/3.75/3.96. They are a legitimately strong staff, even sans the CY winner.

Behind inconsistency (Sanchez), luck (Cain), and inexperience (Sadowski), the rotation doesn't pose an insurmountable task, even if we miss their only two below average starters (Zito and Johnson).

The back end of the bullpen is anchored by closer Brian Wilson, followed by Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo and Bob Howry. Merkin Valdez, Justin Miller and Brandon Medders fill out the bullpen.

The D: A

Who would believe that San Francisco is leading MLB in UZR/150, especially in that ballpark? Only seven teams have made fewer errors, and Fangraphs rates them as the 3rd best defense. Huh. Pablo Sandoval and Edgar Renteria are the only fielders rated out as below average.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 7:10 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Matt Cain	11-2	2.32	1.23	103	48

All-Star Matt Cain rebounded from his elbow injury to allow one run in 7 innings in his last start. In fact, he's allowed one run or less in 6 of 7 starts and 10 of 12. But in a factoid sure to rile up the SABR-haters, Cain listed as less valuable this year than Jorge de la Rosa by Fangraphs and Statcorner. Seriously though, check DLR and Cain's K and BB totals. It's interesting. Cain is enjoying a ludicrously high strand rate (along with Affeldt and Miller) with a career low BABIP, in spite of an above career average line drive rate. Translation: Cain is getting very lucky.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jason Hammel	5-4	4.26	1.45	68	24

It is the first of consecutive tough draws for Hammel, who will face Johan Santana on Wednesday. Since his gem on July 1, he has struggled with either pitch count or getting hit hard in his last three starts, to the point of being the universal Rowbot candidate for demotion to the bullpen in favor of Jhoulys Chacin. Still, he's been a reliable starter at the back end of the rotation and has the ability to stymie the Giants' lineup and give the Rockies a chance, even at Coors Field.

Saturday, July 25, 6:10 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jonathan Sanchez	3-8	4.68	1.45	87	47

Jonathan threw a no-hitter. So did Anibal once. Due congratulations, but big whoop. The lefty had been relegated to the bullpen and was only reinstated due to Randy Johnson's injury. When he's on, he's very talented, but he's been erratic, evening out as an average to slightly above average pitcher. He's also just 1-2 with a 7.47 ERA in his career against the Rockies.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	7-7	4.95	1.40	105	47

The Rockies counter with their own electric, inconsistent lefty. He has quietly been improving of late, tossing four consecutive quality starts, while the Rockies have won the last six times he has been on the hill, and eight of nine. His slider was recently rated as the #4 most difficult pitch to hit in the majors, and his fastball is top 15 in MLB in velocity. Not a bad fifth starter.

Sunday, July 26, 1:10 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Ryan Sadowski	2-2	4.15	1.43	12	11

The 2002 13th round pick actually replaced Sanchez in the rotation in June. He allowed just 2 runs in his first three starts, but he didn't really face a threatening offense. Then Atlanta hung eight runs on him in his last start. He's a five pitch pitcher, throwing a fastball (89), slider (86), cutter (86), curve (77) and changeup (83), though only the fastball and cutter are above average pitches. Nothing about his stuff is overpowering, and he'll be facing the strongest offense in the best run-scoring environment of his career.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Aaron Cook	9-3	3.94	1.42	67	39

Cook has a very good stat line, but tRA and FIP don't like him - in fact, they haven't all year, as is the case with a lot of contact pitchers. Certainly, his double play ability and veteran mentality should give him a better stats than peripherals would suggest - I won't deny that. Just keep in mind he's doing all this with a career high strand rate, career low BABIP, and a sinker he can't seem to keep down in recent starts.

My take

Tonight's game should be a Giant challenge (I groaned at that one myself). ESPN's AccuScore gives SF 11:9 odds to win, while oddsmakers have Colorado as -125 moneyline favorites. The Rockies have the advantage in starting pitching in Saturday and Sunday's games, with the obvious offensive advantage. If the Rockies can manage to eek out a win tonight, it makes it almost impossible to lose the series,while making a huge sweep likely. This should definitely be a series win, with a win tonight being far more likely than it would appear.

Matt Cain has given up more than one run just once in his last 7 starts. Brian Wilson has allowed just two base runners in his last 5 innings, all scoreless. Nate Schierholtz is 9-for-24 in the last week, helping to secure playing time in the crowded outfield.

The entire team is on a 7-game homerless drought despite playing away from AT&T Park in all seven games. Pablo Sandoval, Juan Uribe, Edgar Renteria, John Bowker and Fred Lewis are all hitting under .200 since the ASB. Only Randy Winn and Schierholtz have posted post-ASB OPS' above .700.

Randy Johnson (shoulder) and Rich Aurilia (toe) are both on the 15-day DL. Noah Lowry (ribs) and Joe Martinez (concussion) have been on the 60 day DL since at least Opening Week, and pitcher Kelvin Pichardo (shoulder) joined them late last month.

Poll

So whadduya think?

Cain has only won 2 games at Coors in his career. We'll ambush him tonight, Hammel will handle their anemic offense, and we will go on for the sweep. The Giants are who we thought they were.

68 votes

Can't predict a swep with a Cain vs Hammel matchup, but we definitely should take the series and increase our WC lead.

172 votes

The Giants take 2 of 3 to even up the WC standings

41 votes

Wave goodbye to the Wild Card lead. The Giants take it from us with a sweep despite Lincecum never leaving the dugout.

34 votes

315 votes | Poll has closed