SB Nation - Kevin Frandsen

NL West in Review: Shortstops

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 19:00:43 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

If UZR wasn't so strangely hard on Tulo, the Rockies' shortstop would be even higher above his competition.

This is about as suspenseful as a modern day cookie-cutter horror flick. Not even our pudgy four-letter Philly fan can deny the proper anointment of the NL West's top shortstop in 2009. However, it wasn't quite so clear just last March.

Coming off of a miserable 0.8 WAR season in 2008 (at the same level as Brian Barton and Carlos Gonzalez), Troy Tulowitzki silenced all critics in 2009, giving the Rockies a clear advantage over every team in the West. In fact, the 6.85 WAR that Tulo, Barmes and Quintanilla generated represent the strongest infield position of any team in the division.

Even considering Tulo's down year, the preseason projections had the Rockies as clear favorites in the NL West, with Los Angeles, Arizona, San Francisco and San Diego following in order. Colorado delivered in a big way, representing the division's sole above average offensive unit. Everth Cabrera's surprising rookie season ruined what would have otherwise been an accurate ranking:


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Colorado	3	.298	32	96	.377	.536	.387	6.85
2. Los Angeles	4	.271	9	54	.330	.371	.321	3.64
3. Arizona	3	.265	12	73	.332	.417	.326	2.49
4. San Diego	4	.231	4	43	.319	.328	.304	1.98
5. San Francisco	4	.255	11	72	.306	.353	.296	0.74

Shortstop was the most stable position among divisional infield positions, as all five teams had clear full-time starters from start to finish. With the positional RAR set at +7.5, here is the graphical RAR representation:

For the full rankings and team rundowns, turn the corner.

Seventeen different men manned shortstop, including Josh Wilson twice (for San Diego and Arizona), and all but five were above replacement level:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Troy Tulowitzki	COL	628	.296	32	92	.377	.551	.362	-1.2	5.07
2	Rafael Furcal	LAD	671	.266	8	45	.331	.368	.321	8.0	3.24
3	Stephen Drew	AZ	586	.262	12	65	.320	.432	.334	3.4	3.00
4	Everth Cabrera	SDP	437	.255	2	31	.343	.362	.335	-11.7	0.84
5	Augie Ojeda	AZ	116	.289	0	6	.381	.371	.331	3.2	0.83
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
14	Blake DeWitt	LAD	5	.000	0	0	.200	.000	.141	-0.4	-0.08
15	Luis Rodriguez	SDP	119	.196	1	6	.314	.268	.272	-1.8	-0.12
16	Kevin Frandsen	SFG	20	.056	0	0	.150	.056	.119	-0.2	-0.21
17	Chris Burke	SDP	76	.214	1	5	.276	.314	.268	-2.6	-0.23
18	Josh Wilson	SDP	42	.108	0	1	.195	.162	.141	-2.0	-0.55

For a the full spreadsheet of the players rankings, team rankings and raw data, check this Google Docs link.

Arizona

2009 in Review

After a spectacular second half the previous season, the bright young shortstop took a huge nosedive with the bat this season, falling from a near elite shortstop to a below average league bat. Sound familiar? Augie Ojeda also performed well in 116 PA to usurp Renteria for the fifth most valuable shortstop in the division, just a tenth of a run behind Everth Cabrera for fourth.

2010 in Preview

Diamondbacks fans are hoping for a Tulowitzki-like bounce-back year in 2010 from Drew. Arizona's 2004 first-round pick made $1.5mil last season and is up for arbitration.

Colorado

2009 in Review

Remember in May back when even Rowbots were drawing parallels between Tulo and Khalil Greene/Bobby Crosby? I hardly do myself. Four months later, Tulo finished the season as MLB's third-most valuable shortstop. For some reason, UZR pegs Tulo as a below average MLB shortstop, which is clearly fishy. That plus April/May make his season's ranking all the more incredible. Clint Barmes was solid in in 49 PA, enough to finish seventh in the NL West despite no home runs and four RBIs.

2010 in Preview

Troy Tulowitzki made a paltry $1million in 2009, the second year of a six year contract. He is guaranteed $3.5million next year, but hopefully, he'll cash in with more. He'll pocket $25k each for a Gold Glove and All-Star appearance and $50k with a Silver Slugger.

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Rafael Furcal was borderline MVP caliber to start 2008, but after an early summer injury, he never really recovered. 2009 started poorly as well, as Furcal hit below .250 for almost the entire first half. The former Brave was saved by an 8.0 UZR - quite strange in that he was average or below average every year of his career up to 2009, and only Elvis Andrus was more valuable defensively. I'm not sure I buy that. Chin-Ling Hu, Blake DeWitt and Juan Castro washed out to about replacement level.

2010 in Preview

Furcal was a below average bat last season, not what Los Angeles was hoping for after signing him to a 3-year $30mil deal before the season. He'll be making $8.5million next season, a value he has reached four of the last five years (Fangraphs). Still at 32, he could certainly regress.

San Diego

2009 in Review

Everth Cabrera was the full-time starter for the Padres at shortstop minus two months he missed with a fractured bone in his hand. The Rule 5 pick impressed greatly with his bat after jumping from A-ball, with a park-adjusted .335 wOBA, comfortably above league average. However, he struggled greatly defensively, as the Rockies saw first hand. His UZR was worst in the division and fourth worst in MLB. Luis Rodriguez was essentially the worst shortstop in the division who got any real number of ABs, but Chris Burke and the San Diego version of Josh Wilson join him as three of the five below replacement level contributors.

2010 in Preview

After an impressive rookie year, Bud Black will be writing Cabrera's name in his line-up card with great regularity. Everth should get a slight bump from the league minimum in 2010, but it won't be much.

San Francisco

2009 in Review

Edgar Renteria's best days appear to be behind him. The 34-year old Colombian was less than half as productive as his prior career-worst season. His .288 wOBA is just pathetic - even Garrett Atkins was better, and he wasn't a defensive asset either. Juan Uribe was solid as a backup, with Ryan Rohlinger and Kevin Frandsen also got some reps.

2010 in Preview

Edgar Renteria was one of the first signings last offseason, before the market crashed. Consequently, his contract looks silly now, as he just finished the first year of a two year $18million contract. Nine million of that will come in 2010, with an obvious $500k buyout to be exercised next offseason. The option year in 2010 is for $10.5million. If Renteria falters there more, the Giants could do a lot worse than using Juan Uribe there.

NL West in Review: 2nd Basemen

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:00:36 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Felipe Lopez only got in a half season in the NL West, but was he good enough to be the best 2B in the division in 2009?

Browse more photos »

Introduction

Before getting to the second base rankings, I thought I would touch on a peripheral discussion on the accuracy of WAR. It is important to understand that even the WAR found at Fangraphs isn't absolute. The methodology of chosen inputs can make the final numbers vary slightly, or in some cases, drastically. The best example of this is this year's season by Ricky Nolasco, who was a 4.0 WAR pitcher from Fangraphs, but just a 1.0 WAR pitcher via Rally's historical database. The quick explanation is that Fangraphs' input is FIP, while Rally's is more based on actual runs allowed and BABIP.

In my case, I'm using Statcorner's component park factors, while Fangraphs has their own methodology for park effects. That is why some of my numbers will vary some from Fangraphs' data. For instance, I have Orlando Hudson as a 2.52 WAR second baseman, while Fangraphs has him at 2.9 WAR. Which is right? I think it's a matter of preference.

A few weeks ago, Dave Cameron wrote an article entitled WAR: It Works, which defended their methodology by finding a 0.83 correlation between a team's total WAR and final record (for comparison, Pythageorean W-L has a 0.91 correlation). So it does a decent job, but there's some understandable noise in the data.

Method

See the full methodology as explained last week. Last Monday, I omitted stolen bases and caught stealings from my value calculations. It turns out Fangraphs' positional splits are accurate to positional at-bats, and Baseball Reference's positional splits are not accurate for stolen bases and caught stealings. As it turns out, first basemen don't steal much, so that omission made practically no difference.

However, second basemen do tend employ the running game, so I did the extra legwork of utilizing ESPN.com's positional splits to extract SB/CS data. It didn't make a great deal of difference. Four teams saw their team wOBA* increase by .001, while the Rockies dropped by .001. Clint Barmes, who led all NL West 2B in caught stealings with nine, was the only prominent player to be affected, who dropped one slot in the rankings.

Read the results after the jump.

Results

No NL West team had complete personnel consistency at second base, but that didn't stop Arizona from far surpassing the rest of the division with some surprise production from their second-sackers.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Arizona	4	.298	15	49	.372	.448	.362	5.97
2. Los Angeles	6	.283	12	77	.356	.424	.347	3.19
3. Colorado	5	.231	31	98	.281	.441	.301	0.80
4. San Francisco	7	.236	17	80	.281	.329	.281	-0.26
5. San Diego	5	.246	2	58	.315	.314	.292	-1.04

Brendan Scolari's calculations had Arizona projected to be the weakest team at second base this season, but the other four teams fell in line as expected from there.

Your graphical plot of the RAR for all five teams, with the positional RAR set at +2.5.

The second base position was exceedingly interesting, in my opinion. To wit: the most valuable player was also the fifth least valuable fielder; the worst and best fielders came from the same team; the man with the third most homers was the fourth worst second baseman; and, one team had four second basemen in the top seven in the division:

There were 27 total second basemen, and you can view the complete rankings and data here in Google Docs. Here are the top and bottom five:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Orlando Hudson	LAD	627	.285	9	62	.359	.420	.345	-3.7	2.52
2	Felipe Lopez	AZ	375	.305	6	25	.366	.417	.351	3.8	2.25
3	Ryan Roberts	AZ	199	.303	7	16	.374	.506	.383	2.3	1.65
4	Clint Barmes	COL	551	.238	22	69	.286	.437	.301	7.0	1.60
5	Juan Uribe	SFG	131	.274	6	15	.331	.538	.380	3.5	1.25
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
23	Edgar Gonzalez	SDP	54	.234	0	3	.315	.319	.289	-2.1	-0.17
24	Ian Stewart	COL	73	.235	8	26	.274	.632	.349	-7.5	-0.39
25	Luis Rodriguez	SDP	102	.200	1	7	.294	.256	.266	-4.1	-0.48
26	Emmanuel Burriss	SFG	220	.238	0	13	.292	.267	.265	-3.7	-0.53
27	Eugenio Velez	SFG	106	.198	1	8	.226	.287	.231	-4.7	-0.80

Arizona

2009 in Review

Felipe Lopez barely played half a season for the Snakes, but his stellar first half offensively and plus glove defensively kept him in position to finish second best in the division. Ryan Roberts had the best rate stats of any divisional player with over 100 PA (he surpassed Clint Barmes for WAR when I added the SB/CS factor), and he was joined in the top seven by Augie Ojeda and Rusty Ryal, who led the entire team in wOBA in a small sample. All four players had positive UZR scores.

2010 in Preview

AJ Hinch will most likely choose either a starter from the pool of Ryan Roberts, Rusty Ryal and Tony Abreu going forward into next season. It is possible that an unnamed free agent would be thrown into the picture, but I personally don't expect it. The fact that the hands down best team at 2B in 2009 has such a question mark going into 2010 with only Lopez subtracted speaks to the relative weakness of the position in the NL West.

Colorado

2009 in Review

Clint Barmes had a heck of an enigmatic season. He was easily the most valuable defensive 2B and had more than twice the home runs of any other player. However, his Ryan Howard impression was completed by having a poor average and batting average, and he led the division in caught stealings, helping Roberts to surpass him. Ian Stewart was third in the division in home runs, but he posted the worst UZR by far, completely negating Barmes' defensive contributions, at least statistically. Omar Quintanilla contributed enough defensively to stay out of the bottom five despite a 2-for-28 mark with the bat.

2010 in Preview

Rumors abound that Dan O'Dowd is going to lock Barmes down to a multi-year contract, so it appears he will have the position locked down going into spring training, though Eric Young Jr could provide a completely different toolset.

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Orlando Hudson had an All-Star first half, but his defense has slipped and Ronnie Belliard (who had a strong stretch in his own right by finishing8th in just 42 PA) of all people took starts from him down the stretch. Blake DeWitt, Juan Castro and Mark Loretta provided negligible negative value.

2010 in Preview

Hudson will be a Type A free agent and probably won't be retained by the Dodgers. By trading Tony Abreu for Jon Garland, Ned Colletti gave up his best internal option for the position going forward. There's no way they go with Loretta or Castro full time, and Blake DeWitt seems to have regressed after perhaps playing over his head in 2008. Los Angeles could go with Belliard, but second base is certainly on Colletti's offseason shopping list.

San Diego

2009 in Review

Grit is not an input for WAR, so almost all of David Eckstein's value goes unchecked. He combined his light hitting with the second worst UZR in the division. Oscar Salazar and Chris Burke played a small role, but Luis Rodriguez and Edgar Gonzalez really hurt the team, as both were in the bottom handful both with the bat and glove. As a team, the running game was essentially non-existent, as the Padres only stole four bases from second base. All five second basemen posted negative UZR scores.

2010 in Preview

Kevin Towers extended Eckstein through 2010 with a $1 million deal in August, so he is unequivocally the starter going forward, especially with signs pointing towards very minimal free agent spending this offseason

San Francisco

2009 in Review

The position looked to be weak going into the season, and it was. Freddy Sanchez was unable to get on the field consistently after being acquired, but Juan Uribe picked up the slack by not only performing well (his wOBA* at second was just four points behind the best in the division for those with 100+ PA) but having a career season overall. Emmanuel Burriss and Eugenio Velez each got a well deserved Simon Cowell treatment for their poor auditions, and the team seemed that Kevin Frandsen is not the answer. The Giants' combined wOBA of .281 was by far the worst in the division.

2010 in Preview

As Rox Girl noted yesterday morning, the Giants signed Sanchez to a 2-year deal on Friday, paying him $6million/year, more than he's ever made in his career. On the surface, Sanchez is not much of a threat in the division, as he has regressed due to age in recent years and he dealt with a multitude of injuries of late. In 2008, he provided just $1.8million in value, and though he provided the Giants almost no value in 2009, he did have $10.1million total. And after seeing the terrible play at second and need to validate the Tim Alderson trade, it's no surprise Brian Sabean decided to go this direction. At any rate, barring injury to The Mole, the Giants will be much improved at second base in 2010.

The Giants and Minor League Evaluation

Grant — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:57:18 -0000

Not much time for a ton of writing today, so I'll just ask your help for possible posts down the road. I'm trying to make a list of examples of the Giants ignoring minor league performance in their hitter evaluation process in the Brian Sabean era.

Rich Aurilia -- Fine numbers for a AAA shortstop, blocked by Jose Vizcaino because he was the "get one free" part of the Jeff Kent trade.
Todd Linden -- Stellar numbers in AAA, never given a chance (note: this is a list of examples for better or for worse. It was almost assuredly a good thing that Linden didn't get a chance as a starter.)
Dan Ortmeier -- Very little power, contact, or on-base skills in the minors, fluked his way into a .497 slugging percentage in 157 major league at-bats, taken seriously as a candidate for a starting 1B job in the majors
Kevin Frandsen -- Career .317/.380/.452 hitter in the minors, blocked by vets and rooks alike. Also a career .241/.306/.342 hitter in the majors in over 450 at-bats, so this might be more of a Linden situation rather than a crime against player evaluation.
Nate Schierholtz -- Career .308/.355/.516 hitter in the minors, blocked by vets and rooks alike. Also a career .287/.318/.408 hitter in the majors in over 450 at-bats, so...hey, that reads familiar.
Brian Bocock -- A year after hitting .220 in A-ball, he was the Opening Day shortstop. Seriously.
Emmanuel Burriss -- Two years after hitting .165 in A-ball, he was the Opening Day second baseman. Seriously.
John Bowker -- Hit .342/.451/.596 with a reworked approach in AAA. The player standing in the way of a starting job in the majors hasn't hit a home run since April.
Buster Posey -- Isn't likely to have an on-base percentage below .300, which makes him a special offensive catcher in this organization's history. Needs to prove his worth to get a single start; won't get a single start until he proves his worth.
Eugenio Velez -- Nothing in his minor league career, other than a fine age-24 season in low-A, suggests he'll be more than a fine bench player. Because he had a ridiculously hot 80 at-bats when he was called up, though, he's a starting outfielder. And he's done just fine, mind you. But he also starts against left-handers, against whom he's hit .241/.288/.353 over his minor league career and .212/.287/.260 in his major league career.

No thesis, really. I'm just trying to figure out why the Giants completely ignore minor league statistics when they evaluate hitters. Actually, I guess I'm trying to figure out if they ignore minor league stats, and if that's even helped the team on a few occassions. Please help me fill in any gaps or omissions. Also let me know if I'm cherry-picking and/or making too much out of nothing. Also, feel free to ignore baseball entirely and talk about lunch, as that's what you're going to do anyways.

An Open Letter About Edgar Renteria

Grant — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 21:54:20 -0000

To Whom It May Concern;

Edgar Renteria might be the worst starting position player in baseball. He’s at least in the discussion. Don’t take this as an attack on the idea behind his signing – I thought it was a good idea at the time. I regret that thought, and I wish there enough Lava Soap of the Mind to scrub it from my psyche, but I can’t complain about having Renteria on the team. I liked the length of the contract, and I was only a little put off by the money. Watching a year of Brian Bocock and an expired Omar Vizquel flailing at the plate will do that to a man.

So assigning blame is pointless. The end result is that Edgar Renteria is here, and he’s one of the worst starting players in baseball. I could feed you stats to prove my point – maybe throw in a link to Renteria’s FanGraphs page, which is worth 10,000 words – but you can use your eyes for this one. We all thought those post-signing scouts were just being curmudgeons when they panned the Renteria deal, but it turns out that Renteria has only one decent baseball-related skill left: he’s a very steady fielder on balls hit within his range. Renteria is no longer good at everything else that is related to the sport. He can’t catch up to fastballs; he can’t lay off breaking balls; he doesn’t hit for any power at all; he has no range; he’s slow; he’s impatient at the plate.

That’s just how it is. He probably deserves to be on a major league roster based on his one remaining skill, so this isn’t to say he should be released. And blessings to Juan Uribe for his surprising offensive production this year – it doesn’t seem like much, but it’s something more than we expected – but I understand if you don’t feel as if he’s a viable option as a starter. Kevin Frandsen has obviously displeased the organization, and I’m not really privy to the internal conversations as to why, so I’m not going to pretend to know if that’s a reasonable thing or not. And while I’m confident Frandsen can outhit Renteria at this point, I’m not sure if Frandsen can be as good defensively as Renteria, which is a pretty telling lack of faith. Maybe the reports from Fresno are positive, but I’d be surprised.

So there might not be a palatable in-house alternative for the rest of the 2009 season. I’d probably give Uribe more at-bats if I were in charge, and I’d certainly have Frandsen on the roster, but those aren’t changes that will make a whole lot of difference.

What will make a difference, though, is if you treat Renteria as if he is one of the worst starting position players in baseball. This would mean:

Not hitting him as high as second in the order, which can only lead to more at-bats.
Not hitting him in the middle of the order – there have been a couple of lineups in which he’s hit fifth! – which will only lead to wins if the other team is unable to take the field through the tears and laughter
Not intentionally putting Renteria into high-leverage situations, such as putting him into pinch-hit for Travis Ishikawa with runners on base in today's game against the Reds.
Going into the offseason with shortstop as a priority. Again. It stinks, but it’s the best way to improve the team offensively and defensively. The money given to Renteria isn’t coming back. But the position can be upgraded. So you can lose the money and have poor production, or you can lose the money and have better production.

I understand why you took a chance on Renteria. He just turned 34, but he used to be an elite player. He had a strong second-half last year. There weren’t a lot of ways to upgrade the position without giving up prospects or draft picks. The position was an absolute organizational ghost town. But that’s in the past. Right now, Renteria does not help the Giants win. Next year, Renteria probably isn’t going to help the Giants win. The short-term options are limited, but there are things you can do to minimize the disadvantage.

I did love, though, that he wanted to tear Russell Martin's larynx out with his teeth. He'll always have a spot in my heart for that one.

Sincerely,

Some Guy in His Mother’s Basement

Using Team Context To Better Understand The Trade Market: The San Francisco Giants

Jack Moore — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 12:00:10 -0000

More photos » by CHRIS YOUNG - AP

Who would be of more value to a run preventing team like San Francisco? Halladay and his pitching? Scutaro's solid run production and run prevention? Or some pure, unadulterated run production like an Albert Pujols?

Browse more photos »

NOTE: This was written before the Giants acquired Ryan Garko. Still, the main point of this article still holds, and it is largely theoretical in nature. While considering the already hypothetical situations, ignore the acquisition of Garko.

Here at Beyond The Boxscore, we've found some interesting ways to evaluate trades, such as Sky's Trade Value Calculator. In many cases, context-neutral analyses like these accurately represent, at least in terms of wins, the value being returned to the team. However, some teams are simply too abnormal for the value calculator to truly show us how many wins a team can expect to add from adding a certain asset.

The best example of this kind of team in the trade market of 2009 is the San Francisco Giants. Most teams show at least a little bit of balance between their run production and run prevention. The Giants show no balance whatsoever. Looking at pRAA (based on tRA) and bRAA (based on wOBA) from StatCorner, and UZR from FanGraphs, we can see how the Giants have performed relative to average. Here are the 2009 numbers for San Francisco as of July 26.

pRAA	43.5
bRAA	-68.0
UZR	35.9
Total	+11.4

Now, we can separate these into run prevention and run production pretty simply. Run prevention is the combination of pitching and defense, so the Giants run prevention is +79.4 runs above average. Obviously, run production is hitting, so the Giants run production is -68.0 runs above average. Using the PythagenPat formula, we can find a projected winning percentage based on their run production and prevention. The PythagenPat formula

In this case, the Giants are expected to have scored 371 runs and have allowed 360, for an expected winning percentage of .514. This percentage is no different than a team that is worth +5.7 runs both offensively and defensively, for a similar total of +11.4, despite the difference in runs scored and runs allowed. However, the application of PythagenPat comes in when considering the impact of players added. Let's take a look at 3 hypothetical trades for the Giants.

The Giants were reportedly in the running for Roy Halladay, until recently. The impact of replacing Barry Zito (currently -8.4 pRAA) with Roy Halladay (+30.0 pRAA) is 38 runs over 98 the 98 games so far, and so it would be 25 runs over the 64 games remaining, a 25 run boost to run prevention. Let's take a look at some players that would be similar in their impact, despite doing it in different ways.

So far, Giants shortstops have combined to be 24 runs below average, thanks to a -2 UZR and -22 bRAA out of mostly Edgar Renteria, but with contributions as well from Kevin Frandsen and Juan Uribe. Marco Scutaro so far has been worth +6 runs with the glove and +9 with the bat. The magnitude of Scutaro's impact is equal to Halladay's - +25 runs over 64 games. Scutaro provides a 5 run boost to run prevention and a 20 run boost to run production

While this example is completely unrealistic in the trade market, it will serve as a good exercise in the use of PythagenPat. The Giants, at first base this year, have been ten runs above average, thanks to a +11 UZR and a -1 bRAA. Albert Pujols, so far this year, has been worth 48 runs with with the bat and -2 with the glove. That works out to a 36 run increase. To make the calculations easier, let's call Pujols +49 with the bat and -1 with the glove. That puts him at +38 over the Giants first basemen so far this year. Albert's total contribution to run prevention, then, would be -10 runs over the rest of the season, and to run production it would be +35 runs.

Now, let's take a look at what we could expect in the 4 hypothetical continuations of the season: no change, Giants replace Zito with Halladay, Giants replace Renteria et. al. with Scutaro and Giants replace Ishikawa et. al. with Pujols.

RSAA = Runs Scored Above Average, RAAA = Runs Allowed Above Average. All per 64 games, which is how many games were remaining when these stats were pulled.

Scenario	RSAA	RAAA	RS	RA	RS-RA	WPCT	Wins Added
No Change	-44.41	51.85	242	234	8	0.514	0
+Halladay	-44.41	76.67	242	209	33	0.562	3.07
+Scutaro	-24.82	51.85	262	229	33	0.559	2.88
+Pujols	-11.76	43.85	275	242	33	0.557	2.75

What we can learn from this exercise:

Run Prevention heavy teams like the Giants get slightly bigger impact out of their moves than neutral or Run Production heavy teams. They only add 25 runs of value, which roughly translates to 2.5 wins. However, in the run environment the Giants have created, 25 runs are worth between 2.75 and 3.1 wins.
If you are a run prevention heavy team, it helps to play to your strengths and boost your run prevention even more. This is the way dynamic run and win estimators like PythagenPat work. Because of the low run environment, the average wOBA in Giants games is lower, and as such, the hitters with low wOBAs already employed by the Giants have their value increased by the low run environment. This wouldn't really apply to, for example, a team like the Brewers who have combined to be 61 runs below average with their pitchers.

Within the next couple of days, I will explore how these same types of deals impact teams on the other end of the run spectrum: above average teams with great run production.

Hate

Grant — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 18:59:22 -0000

I was going to write a long, in-depth piece that compared Kevin Frandsen's minor league career to the minor league careers of the top 15 major league second basemen, but my internet connection went down. Then it went back up. Then back down. Then up. Now, as of 11:00 a.m., it's down. So I'll have to make do with a research-free post, or as I like to call them, a "typical and ordinary weekday post." I'll summarize the point of the canceled post in a sentence: Because Brian Roberts didn't have have the numbers that Frandsen did in the upper minors, science says that Frandsen will have a better major league career.

It's probably for the best, though, as my heart wasn't really in a pseudo-research mode. Today, my heart is full of hate. The All-Star break was long, and during the entire break, I was allowed to fantasize about a playoff-bound Giants team. They would have made it if the season ended at the break, of course. I hate that I was duped, bamboozled, and possibly even hornswoggled. This team, as presently assembled, is a reaaaaal stinker.

After the jump, there's more hate.

I hate that of the three left-handed hitting corner outfielders on the roster, I'm still not sure if any of them will ever be worth a starting role. I want closure.

I hate that Jason Marquis has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. Seriously, that's really annoying. Let's go with Occam's Razor here. What's more likely: a) that Jason Marquis pitches well in Coors Field and the Rockies go on their second historic 40-game run in less than two years, or b) the Rockies are cheating by spraying humidor balls with freon in the top half innings of home games. Obviously, it's b. I'm just trying to figure out why they're winning on the road too, and then I'll publish my paper.

I hate that there were actually people who thought Ryan Sadowski's first two starts in the majors meant more than his entire professional career to that point.

I hate that Kevin Frandsen never got a shot after getting hot toward the end of 2007, even though his career minor league numbers are comparable to the minor league numbers of most of the top second baseman in the game. I guess he just needed to play for an organization that had more of an opening at second base.

On a related note, I hate that I even suspect that my favorite team is run by people who could look at Frandsen's 5-for-39 this year and conceivably think, man, that's obviously his true performance level now.

On another related note, I hate that someone just read that and didn't get the point. "Yeah, but what's Frandsen done in the majors, man? NOTHING. Minor league stats, AAAA players, blah blah blah, game played on the field, blah blah blah, Damon Minor and Todd Linden."

On yet another related note, I hate that I'm worrying that two bad outings + no help from the relievers who followed him + ERA over 6.00 = back-o'-the-bullpen duties for Sergio Romo.

I hate that my cat wants out and then scratches to get in so he can meow to get out once he's in, and that wakes up my daughter, which seriously impedes my effort to write about a crappy team that no one wants to read about right now. Solution: I'm going to shave the cat and mail him to Finland. You read that,cat? I swear on my life, I will shave you and mail you to another country. Pull this crap during a winning streak.

I hate that Pablo Sandoval didn't make the All-Star Game. Sorry, I'm not letting it go.

I hate that this team will probably start winning soon, making me look like an idiot. They won't go on a Rockies-type tear, of course. They'll win just enough to make the haters look stupid, and then they'll have another terrible road trip right as I start to believe again.

I hate the Dodgers. I hate that they're winning. I also hate the Dodgers.

Comment starter: THINGS YOU HATE. I hate this road trip. I think I hate every road trip now.

Kevin Frandsen and Freddy Sanchez

Grant — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 19:58:14 -0000

Reposted because a) it was buried in the middle of some uninteresting jibberish yesterday, and b) I'm kind of fascinated by this....

If the Giants and Pirates do consummate a Freddy Sanchez trade, the Pirates would do well to demand Kevin Frandsen as a throw-in. If Frandsen came up with the Red Sox, he would have been Freddy Sanchez. That is, Frandsen would have been hyped enough to be a significant trade chip in his own right. Sanchez was 25 when he was the main piece in a deal that sent Jeff Suppan to the Red Sox, and his career minor league line was .318/.381/.440. Frandsen is 27 and his career minor league line is .322/.385/.457. Without league and park context, those numbers aren't perfect matches, of course, but it isn't hard to see Sanchez/Frandsen parallels.

I guess my point is this: Kevin Frandsen will hit .344 with 53 doubles in two years, just like Sanchez did in 2006. It's just science. My other point is this: Even though I'm obviously kidding about the first point, it probably wouldn't be a bad idea for another team to see how cheaply the Giants would part with Frandsen. Maybe there's a 20% chance he turns into a Sanchez-type player, and I don't think the Giants are going to give him that chance.

Is the lesson...

a. The Giants don't value Frandsen properly

b. Players with Sanchez-like careers are outliers -- most players don't just translate their minor league numbers over to the majors like that, so expecting Frandsen to do the same is silly

c. Folks might be overvaluing Sanchez just a bit. He's basically Frandsen if everything worked out perfectly

d. Defense makes this whole point moot, as Sanchez is the better defender

e. The comparison is invalid because of Frandsen's two extra birthdays. That makes a substantial difference

f. Sanchez is good. Frandsen is not. I didn't need to read all of those words up there to figure that out.

Just curious. I was stunned by how close the minor league numbers were for the two.

NL West Midseason Roundtable, Part One: Trade Deadline

Eric Stephen — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 19:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

Will Roy Halladay join the NL West over the next 11 days?

Browse more photos »

The National League West was much maligned heading into the season, but to date has performed quite well. In addition to the Dodgers owning baseball's best record, the Giants and Rockies are the top two contenders for the Wild Card, and figure to be around for the long haul. Sky Kalkman of Beyond The Boxscore was kind enough to moderate a discussion among SB Nation NL West bloggers, including:

Jim McLennan - AZ Snake Pit
Russ Oates - Purple Row
Dex Bustarde - Gaslamp Ball
Grant Brisbee - McCovey Chronicles
Me

Here is part one of our roundtable, regarding the trade deadline...

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which teams, under which circumstances, will be buyers over the next three weeks? How about sellers? If there are any undecideds, what will be the tipping point?

Russ Oates (Purple Row): Unless the Rockies fall out of the gate after the All-Star Break, they won't be selling off any players. Oh, how far the Rockies have come since mid-May when it looked like they would be sellers! They'll be moderate buyers, not looking to make a huge splash, but not looking to do exactly nothing.

Dex Bustarde (Gaslamp Ball): I've never liked the "buyer" and "seller" tags. For example, I think the Giants should be acquiring as fast as possible and in the process, may be actively trying to move guys for value. The Dodgers are doing so well right now that they should be thinking of being in buyer mode just to ensure they have pitching for a proper World Series run. The Padres will try to sell for value. Nobody's safe on the team at this point. I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Adrian Gonzalez moved before the 2010 season.

Grant Brisbee (McCovey Chronicles): Yeah, the move from "Wait 'til 2010" to "buy, buy, buy!" came quickly for the Giants, and I'm on board. I don't think there's a hitter worth one of the top four prospects (Bumgarner, Alderson, Villalona, Posey) but I think there's a way to shore up the right side of the infield without burning down the farm.

Jim McLennan (AZ SnakePit): We've been putting up the 'For Sale' signs since Bob Melvin got fired. The only place we might be looking to acquire any players with major-league experience is perhaps the bullpen, but having sold Tony Peña for a prospect, even that seems less likely.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What holes will teams be looking to fill? What are the biggest holes they *SHOULD* be looking to fill but don't seem to be concerned about? Which holes from the first half can be plugged internally, perhaps by improvement the same player?

Russ Oates (Purple Row): The team could still look for another bullpen arm. Alan Embree's out for the season after a nasty ball to the leg, but now Matt Belisle's back with the team. One should hope that having Franklin Morales pitch out of the bullpen will work out.

Eric Stephen (True Blue LA): The Dodgers should be looking for a good lefty bat off the bench, but those don't exactly grow on trees.

Dex Bustarde (Gaslamp Ball): The Padres will be looking for more ways to fill the pie holes of fans in various ways, be it breakfasts, lunches, dinners or pies. The holes they should be filling are on the team and those won't be getting filled anytime this year in any significant way.

Grant Brisbee (McCovey Chronicles): Mmm, Felix Pie. What was the question? Oh, right. A hole the Giants should be concerned about? Bengie Molina is dragging down the lineup now, but there's no way he'll be replaced this year. As far as internal solutions, for all of the Matt Holliday talk, the Giants would probably do just as well to give John Bowker a ton of at-bats. For his entire pro career, Bowker was a low-average, high-strikeout slugger. Then Hensley Meulens -- the AAA hitting coach -- said something like, "Hey, have you ever tried that crazy new 'wait-for-a-good-pitch-to-hit' fad?", and now Bowker is a base-on-balls/home run machine in AAA. The Giants have a glut of lefty hitting, semi-promising corner outfielders, so it'll be interesting to see how they play it.

Jim McLennan (AZ SnakePit): With Doug Davis and Jon Garland free agents at the end of this season, Arizona will be looking to fill at least one of those spots for the 2010 rotation. That's especially necessary, as it's uncertain whether Brandon Webb [team option for 2010, but made only one start so far] will be around either. Most other positions have people to fill them, except second-base where Felipe Lopez is also a free-agent, though he has expressed some interest in re-signing.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Who are the most popular trade targets for those holes? Any targets flying under the radar? Any targets your team is especially intrigued in? Any popular names they're backing away from? Any rumors you'd like to start?

Russ Oates (Purple Row): Rumor mongering? What, like Roy Halladay to the Rockies?

Eric Stephen (True Blue LA): There will probably be rumors of the Dodgers going after a frontline starter, but I don't expect them to pay the price (in prospects or salary) for a guy like Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee. If they make a move, it will likely be for a veteran reliever of some sort, especially with recent injuries to Ronald Belisario and Jonathan Broxton.

Grant Brisbee (McCovey Chronicles): The Giants are close to acquiring Freddy Sanchez and Adam LaRoche for Kevin Frandsen, Travis Ishikawa, and Kevin Pucetas. I read that on a divisional roundtable of bloggers somewhere.

Jim McLennan (AZ SnakePit): I heard Roy Halladay is going to the Rockies, from an impeccable source.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which prospects and young major leaguers are most likely to change hands? Any that teams have deemed off-limits?

Russ Oates (Purple Row): I really don't see any major prospects or young major leaguers moving out of the organization.

Eric Stephen (True Blue LA): I've seen some of the Halladay or Lee rumors, and frankly I'm not sure where they are coming from. Clayton Kershaw and even Chad Billingsley have been mentioned as potential trade candidates, but I'm fairly certain those two would have to be pried from Ned Colletti's cold, dead hands.

Grant Brisbee (McCovey Chronicles): One of Fred Lewis or Nate Schierholtz is gone, if only to relieve the logjam in the outfield. It the target is a really good player who is under contract for 2010: Tim Alderson is the most likely to go. Otherwise, the top prospects aren't going anywhere.

Jim McLennan (AZ SnakePit): Most Arizona prospects are already in the majors, so it's unlikely we'll be trading anyone. They're much more likely to be going the other way, with us taking back prospects for the likes of Davis, Lopez or Garland.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Without any trade-deadline moves, what has to happen for your team to win the division? How much more likely is your team to make the playoffs by plugging its holes or adding an impact player?

Russ Oates (Purple Row): The Dodgers need to slow down. If the Dodgers hadn't started off that great, the NL West would be quite tight right now.

Jim McLennan (AZ SnakePit): The Big One hits California, removing the Giants and Dodgers from the equation, and topples the Rocky Mountains down on top of Coors Field. We might be able to handle what's left of the Padres, if Jake Peavy is appointed Governor of what remains of the state. Yeah: we're toast. Ted Williams couldn't help us now.

Dex Bustarde (Gaslamp Ball): Jim, I think even then, we'd have to take the best of both the Padres and D-Backs in an unholy union of snake and friar for either of us to see post season wins if either of us were handed the division by miracle default.

Eric Stephen (True Blue LA): As long as the sun comes up each day, I expect the Dodgers to play well beyond October 4.

Grant Brisbee (McCovey Chronicles): Barry Zito and Randy Johnson need to pitch better to negate the other pitchers coming down to earth. Someone other than Pablo Sandoval needs to hit, and Bengie Molina needs to get the hell out of the cleanup spot.

NL West exceeds expectations as a whole in 2009's first half

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 17:00:14 -0000

So we have reached the All-Star Break. The mid-way point. I guess it's a good time to reflect on how the season has played out in the NL West. The Rockies have the most wins in franchise history by the All-Star Break and are the most games over .500 since 1995. So how does this bipolar Rockies season stack up in the NL West?

NL West Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Los Angeles	56	32	.636	0	Won 1
San Francisco	49	39	.556	7	Lost 1
Colorado	47	41	.534	9	Won 1
Arizona	38	51	.426	18.5	Lost 1
San Diego	36	52	.409	20	Won 1

(updated 7.12.2009 at 6:49 PM MDT)

Of course, those standings hardly surprise you I'm sure, given you probably keep good track of this daily. Besides, the order of the teams placed in the division are pretty well in line with popular opinion prior to Opening Day. In fact, they fall perfectly in line with Baseball Prospectus' pre-season projections. Yawn. We knew the Dodgers would be good and that the Padres would be terrible.

What might be more interesting is measuring the teams' record against what was expected. Which team is overachieving their expectations? Which team is performing far worse than anyone thought? And how has that changed over the course of the season?

This is why graphs are cool. I put together the graph below that depicts the number of games over (or under) the projected win percentage for each NL West team, after every game of the season. Each individual team's graph will mirror their win percentage graph, but this is normalized to each team's expected playing level. So any team above zero is exceeding projections - any team below is disappointing.

Blue denotes the Dodgers, green the Padres, orange the Giants, purple the Rockies, and red the Diamondbacks. Click wide view to see the graph in all its primitive glory.

A couple things to take from this, most of which you already know:

The Dodgers have been playing at a high level since mid-April, lost very little during Manny Ramirez' suspension, and are currently outperforming projections more than any current team. In fact, this is their best record at the All-Star Break since 1977.
The Padres have spent less than five days in the black. Despite their abysmal record, they've been above BP's expectations practically the entire year. That means two things: 1) We all knew the Friars would be terrible, and 2) Bud Black has done a fantastic job despite losing 60% of his games. In fact, if this was your criteria, Black could be Jim Tracy's best competition for Manager of the Division.
The Rockies' start to the season was BAAAAD, but winning streaks do serious damage in the standings no matter how you look at it.
The Diamondbacks have underperformed the entire season, but the Rockies were the team to hit rock bottom, a full seven games below their expected record, six games after Jim Tracy took over.
AJ Hinch initially recovered after a lull, but Arizona is worse off now than they ever were with Bob Melvin.
Other than the Diamondbacks, the NL West has been surprisingly successful to date. The other four divisional teams sit at least a win better than their expected record at the All-Star Break.

So we've covered the present and the past. Might as well complete the trifecta by looking at the future. How about Baseball Prospectus' projected final standings, which takes the first half's games into account.

NL West PROJECTED Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	PLAYOFF ODDS
Los Angeles	100	62	.617	0	98.94%
Colorado	87	75	.537	13	42.60%
San Francisco	86	76	.531	14	35.43%
Arizona	73	89	.451	27	0.34%
San Diego	67	95	.414	33	0.01%

(updated 7.12.2009 at 6:49 PM MDT)

So there you go. The Giants and Rockies are given 32.34% and 39.04% chances of winning the wild card, while no other NL team has more than a 3.65% chance. Compare that to the Rockies' 3.56% chance of winning the NL West. Mr. Kruk, BP says the Rockies have twice the chance to win the NL West than the Mets making the playoffs...Hmm...

For a smaller timescale, check the week in review of the NL West after the jump.

NL West Report

Arizona (38-51, 4th, L1, 18.5 GB)

Last Week: 5-2. 3-0 vs Padres, 2-2 vs Marlins. In spite of a strong 5-2 week, Arizona gained just a half game on Los Angeles and gained no ground on Colorado or San Francisco.

This Week: ASB, 3 game road series @ Cardinals.

News: Arizona finally cut the cord and released the ineffective Tony Clark. The big pinch-hitter has looked completely overmatched this season, except for Opening Day of course. AZ SnakePit reacts.

Tony Clark

#31 / First Base / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-7

Weight: 245

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Jun 15, 1972

	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Tony Clark	.182	.295	.424

(Note: As bad as that stat line is, it's still better than Chris Young)

Jon Heyman of SI says offers for Chad Qualls may be "too tempting to ignore." However, Arizona might lean towards keeping Doug Davis, as they won't get the 1st to 2nd round talent they desire in a trade and would gain from a compensatory pick should Davis leave in free agency.

The Diamondbacks traded reliever Tony Pena to the White Sox for power hitting first baseman Brandon Allen. Allen will DH or play 1B in AAA, especially now that Josh Whitesell can play with the big club with the Clark transaction.

There is no new injury news to report. Arizona did option Ryan Roberts to AAA and recall Leo Rosales

Arizona Diamondbacks Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Eric Byrnes	hand	06/26/2009
Chris Snyder	lower-back	06/21/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Tom Gordon	hamstring	05/04/2009
Conor Jackson	pneumonia	05/12/2009
Brandon Webb	shoulder	04/07/2009

Los Angeles (56-32, 1st, W2)

Last Week: 4-2. 2-1 @ Mets, 2-1 @ Brewers. An impressive road trip helped close out the Dodgers' best start in 32 years.

This Week: ASB. 4 game home series vs Astros. Houston has quietly climbed to .500 and sits just one game below .500 on the road, so this series isn't necessarily as cupcakey as one might think.

News: All-Star closer Jonathan Broxton will miss the All-Star Game with a toe injury. There's no word on how long he'll be out, but with Ronald Belisario injured as well, two of the Dodgers' top three relievers are on the shelf with injuries.

Jonathan Broxton

#51 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 6-4

Weight: 290

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jun 16, 1984

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jonathan Broxton	6-0	3.10	0.93	65	17

Bill Shaikin of the LA Times suggests a package of Russell Martin, Josh Lindblom and Devaris Gordon to land Roy Halladay, then suggests LA wouldn't even do that deal because Gordon is "untouchable" and "the coaching staff would be reluctant to lose Martin." Yeah okay.

Apparently, there were two LA scouts at a Toronto game, but not for Halladay. For Scott Rolen.

LA is still interested in Mark Mulder.

Manny Ramirez tied Mickey Mantle for 15th on the career HR list with 536 Friday.

Brendan Scolari at TrueBlueLA has exceprts from a Ned Colletti radio interview regarding the Dodgers and the trade market.

TrueBlueLA's Week in Review.

Eric Milton's 15-day DL stint will expire over the All-Star Break, but the Dodgers have yet to make a roster move accordingly that I can see. Integral rookie reliever Ronald Belisario landed on the 15-day DL with an elbow injury last Monday. Cory Wade was called up to replace him in the bullpen, and has since thrown 1.2 scoreless innings. Scott Elbert also joined the pen.

Los Angeles Dodgers Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Will Ohman	shoulder	05/28/2009
Jason Schmidt	shoulder	03/30/2009
Xavier Paul	knee	05/21/2009
Ronald Belisario	elbow	07/06/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Doug Mientkiewicz	shoulder	04/17/2009
Hong-Chih Kuo	elbow	04/30/2009

San Diego (36-52, 5th, W1, 20 GB)

Last Week: 1-6. 0-3 @ Diamondbacks. 1-3 @ Giants. San Diego has won just 3 of their last 14 and is falling fast in the division, as no other NL West team won less than 4 games last week. They now have the worst run differential in MLB.

This Week: ASB, 4 game home series vs Rockies.

News: Susan Slusser of SFGate reports that the PTBNL in the Scott Hairston deal is Sean Gallagher, the same pitcher that was regarded as the centerpiece of the Rich Harden trade last year. Gallagher has upside but his stock has fallen due to injury. He will switch to San Diego's disabled list with a knee injury. Reaction from A's fans, and the reaction from Padres fans.

Sean Gallagher

#39 / Pitcher / San Diego Padres

Height: 6-2

Weight: 235

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Dec 30, 1985

Former 2002 Blue Jay first round pick Russ Adams has signed a minor league deal with the Padres. The infielder was DFA'd July 3rd by Toronto and has reported to San Diego's AAA affiliate. Also signed and assigned to AAA was catcher Yamid Haad.

GasLampBall apparently has video of Matt Bush being arrested.

Adrian Gonzalez is a good dude. The Padres' 1B will be in the Home Run Derby tonight and will donate $200 to charity for ever home run hit. His NL compadres are all first basemen - Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols.

In a Ken Rosenthal piece, Kevin Towers compares Everth Cabrera to Rafael Furcal.

Cliff Floyd is still on the 60day DL - I'm not sure why the widget lost him. Luke Gregerson was activated from the 15day DL Tuesday setting off a flurry of other roster moves. San Diego recalled Mike Ekstrom, placed David Eckstein on the 15day DL with a hamstring injury, optioned Joe Thatcher to AAA, added Ryan Webb (he of the Hairston trade) to the roster, DFA'd Walter Silva and called up RH SP Tim Stauffer.

San Diego Padres Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Jake Peavy	ankle	06/09/2009
Chris Young	shoulder	06/15/2009
Nick Hundley	forearm	06/18/2009
Brian Giles	knee	06/19/2009
Henry Blanco	hamstring	07/05/2009
David Eckstein	hamstring	07/06/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Mark Worrell	elbow	03/27/2009
Cha Seung Baek	forearm	03/30/2009
Shawn Hill	elbow	04/26/2009

San Francisco (49-39, 2nd, L1, 7 GB)

Last Week: 2-1 vs Marlins, 3-1 vs Padres. The only thing to complain about the Giants lately has been their inability to slam the door. They have lost the final game of their last four series.

This Week: ASB, 3 game road series @ Pirates. IT doesn't look like it, but this could be a good place to make up ground on SF. The Rockies draw the paltry Padres for four games while the Giants take their 18-24 road record to PNC Park, where the Pirates are 22-17.

News: You have surely heard it by now, but if not, Jonathan Sanchez threw a no-hitter Friday. If it hadn't been for an 8th inning error on Juan Uribe, it would have been a perfect game. It was just the 6th time in MLB history a pitcher got 11+ K's, zero walks and zero hits. Sanchez' start was the only non-perfect game of the bunch. Not bad for a guy who was 2-8 with a 5.30 ERA coming in. He had been banished to the bullpen and only got the start due to a Randy Johnson injury.

Jonathan Sanchez

#57 / Pitcher / San Francisco Giants

Height: 6-2

Weight: 190

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Nov 19, 1982

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jonathan Sanchez	3-8	4.69	1.50	79	46

The no-hitter is a boon for Sanchez' trade value (maybe), and Henry Schuman at SFGate suggests he could be part of a trade bringing back Freddy Sanchez and perhaps All-Star Zach Duke.

Tim Lincecum will start the All-Star Game. He was the only NL All-Star not to appear in 2008 due to illness, so this is a nice way for the Cy Young winner to jump in.

Dave Allen at Fangraphs has a great read on former Rockie Jeremy Affeldt and his newfound propensity for getting ground balls with the best in the league.

Not enough people voted from the West coast. Shane Victorino beat out the Kung Fu Panda for the last slot on the All-Star Team. Jayson Werth replaced Carlos Beltran on the roster, so Philadelphia now has five of their eight hitters on the All-Star squad. That is disgusting. Only Jimmy Rollins, Pedro Feliz and Carlos Ruiz were left out. Sick.

Two of the Giants top three starters in their rotation are injured. Randy Johnson's shoulder injury has landed him on the 15day DL, while Matt Cain is being monitored after taking a line drive off the elbow. X-rays are negative. He hasn't been put on the DL - watch this. Kevin Frandsen was called up. The Giants won't need a fifth starter until July 20, so they optioned Ryan Sadowski to Single-A and recalled John Bowker.

San Francisco Giants Injuries

Questionable

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Matt Cain	elbow	07/12/2009

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Randy Johnson	shoulder	07/06/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Noah Lowry	ribs	03/27/2009
Kelvin Pichardo	shoulder	06/28/2009
Joe Martinez	concussion	04/10/2009

More Thoughts on Second Base

Grant — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 19:59:39 -0000

Oof. This is the part of the job that I don't like. See, I like Matt Downs. I like the idea, the concept, of Matt Downs. He has a little pop. He makes contact. He plays six positions, and he can run a little bit. It isn't going to take much to make him a back-of-the-bench guy on a good team.

Maybe he'll be a starter one day. Maybe that day is right now. Maybe his Fresno numbers weren't indicative of his true performance level, and maybe he'll settle in at second for the next few years. Weirder things have happened to just about every team in the league. Mark DeRosa was a 26-year-old infielder hitting .291/.351/.425 in AAA in 2002, but he peaked in the majors after he turned 30. I'm not writing anyone off who has shown even a modicum of hitting ability at any level.

But when the Giants say they're going to give Matt Downs the bulk of the at-bats at second, does anyone have any confidence that they're looking for the right things? My hypothesis: Downs's performance in about 100 at-bats will dictate everything. Not his raw minor league numbers, not his adjusted minor league numbers, and not a detailed scouting report or a hit chart. If Downs gets eighteen solid singles, two doubles, and ten broken-bat infield hits, the decision-makers will say he's "seeing the ball well right now" and "they're going to ride the hot hand."

I'm not nuts about starting Kevin Frandsen. If anything, I'm worried that he has the ability to sustain an empty .285/.335/.350, and that will keep him employed for years to come. ZiPS says Downs's averages will be around .271/.318/.404; ZiPS says Frandsen's only good for .261/.320/.357. So don't take this as a "Frandsen deserves to start"-post. I do think Frandsen deserves more of a chance than Downs, even if only because Frandsen's been waiting for a chance for several years. But if your argument is that Downs is more likely to be a productive major league hitter than Frandsen, I'll accept that.

I have no confidence that the Giants will evaluate this well, though. Manny Burriss's hot August last year and his hot March this year meant more than the aggregate total of every other at-bat he had ever taken in his professional career. That was a little bit of a miscalculation.

Am I making too much out of Matt Downs getting a few at-bats? Probably. Almost certainly, even. But I don't know what will be more frustrating: Downs going 10-for-100, and the Giants ignoring him for the next four years, or Downs going 29-for-100, and the Giants deciding that they don't need to upgrade the infield at the trading deadline. The overarching point of this post in a one-sentence blurb: I don't think the next 100 at-bats should be the final word on Matt Downs's ability to play baseball, but I root for an organization that will read waaaaaay too much into those 100 at-bats.

Next time, I'll just cut out the thesis sentence and make it a FanShot. Your thoughts, if you would.