SB Nation - J.J. Hardy

Pirates Offered Matt Capps for J.J. Hardy

Charlie — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:08:38 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

6 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers' J.J. Hardy connects for a fielder's choice single in the sixth inning against the Houston Astros in a baseball game Saturday, April 25, 2009 in Houston. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

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The Post-Gazette reports. This probably wouldn't have been a very appealing offer to the Brewers--they have Trevor Hoffman signed through 2010, with an option for 2011, and Capps was a complete mess all year. (It's theoretically possible the Bucs offered the deal before Hoffman signed his extension in October.) Also, Carlos Gomez, the outfielder they got for Hardy from the Twins, is still a high-upside player, even if there's a much better chance of him busting out completely than breaking out.

Still, this is interesting stuff. It still appears very likely that the Bucs' Opening Day shortstop will be Ronny Cedeno, simply because it won't be easy to upgrade on him in a cost-effective way, but it's not certain.

GM Meetings Day 2: Open Thread

Jesse — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:34:55 -0000

Check back periodically for updates...

4:00 pm: Afternoon updates from Joe C.

Congrats to Joe Mauer, who wins his second Gold Glove. Well deserved.
Apparently the GM's are expected to discuss intant replay? I had no idea. At any rate it hasn't been discussed yet.
Bonser, Neshek and Slowey have been reinstated from the 60-day DL.
Joe promises more tonight.

12:45 pm: Some news from around the league

It sounds like Jason Varitek will pick up his part of the option to stay with the Red Sox, which will be a favor to teams across the American League if he continues to hit like he has the last two seasons. Which he probably will. In related news, Tim Wakefield is never going to stop pitching. NEVER.
If the Twins want to put together a package for Roy Halladay to really make a run with an Ace in hand for 2010, it will have to be a package of "quality over quantity". Sorry, Cmath.
Lunch time trade question: would you trade Jesse Crain and Delmon Young to the Royals for David DeJesus? Is it a realistic scenario?

9:30 am: Catching up on the highlights from yesterday

• Carl Pavano wouldn’t mind sticking with the Twins as long as the money is right. Quotes from his agent, Tom O’Connell, imply that Pavano won’t settle for another contract asking for his client to re-establish himself. If he’d still be willing to take an incentive-laden contract at a reasonable price (say something like one year, $5 million with $500K for reaching 100, 125, 150, 175 and 200 innings) with an option for a second year, I’d do that. He’s a Type-B free agent, but I’m not sure he’d make more than that taking the arbitration route (which the Twins are sure to offer).
• Twins General Manager Bill Smith has mentioned there will be interest in free agent starting pitchers during the off-season. I have to believe that only three spots (Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey) are locked down.
• It sounds like Ron Gardenhire wouldn’t mind bringin back Orlando Cabrera as the team’s second baseman next season, but it seems highly unlikely the front office would follow through on that.
• The Orioles claimed Armando Gabino off waivers.
• Justin Huber cleared waivers, paving the way for his possible return to Rochester (or the Twins) in 2010.
• Juan Morillo has been added to the 40-man roster, bringing the current tally to 33 (not including 60-day DL guys Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek and Kevin Slowey, or impending free agents Ron Mahay, Mike Redmond, Joe Crede, Pavano and Cabrera).
• Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors has posted his yearly series where he guesses where the top 50 free agents will end up. He thinks Adrian Beltre (number nine on his list) will end up in Minnesota.
• Before the Twins snapped up J.J. Hardy, a number of other teams had been in contact with the Brewers, including the Red Sox, Reds and Blue Jays.

Looking back at community projections: Shortstops

KLSnow — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 20:00:32 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Alcides Escobar, seen here leaping over Delwyn Young, also leapfrogged J.J. Hardy this season en route to cementing himself as the shortstop of the future.

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Let's continue to work our way around the diamond with a look at another very disappointing position: shortstops.

Projections:

J.J. Hardy
Projected: .281/.347/.455
Actual: .229/.302/.357

Alcides Escobar
Projected: .263/.308/.359
Actual: .304/.333/.368

Craig Counsell
Projected: .231/.322/.332
Actual: .285/.357/.408

If you've just now noticed that J.J. Hardy had a disappointing season, I'm sorry. Hardy underachieved our expectations by 143 OPS points. possibly the single largest gap between expectations and reality on the 2009 Brewers.

Meanwhile, the sample size is small, but Alcides Escobar exceeded our expectations in all three slash lines, and cemented his status as the Opening Day shortstop for 2010.

Speaking of small sample sizes: There's probably nothing too this, but check out Craig Counsell's splits by defensive position in 2009:

Pos.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
as 2B	206	.266	.322	.408	.739
as 3B	134	.333	.410	,470	.881
as SS	94	.253	.290	.333	.624
as PH	25	.313	.542	.375	.917

Counsell had a career year in 2009, and his numbers were good at second, great at third and incredible (in a small sample) as a pinch hitter. Yet somehow he was terrible as a shortstop. I'm not sure if that's relevant or just a small sample size quirk, but I thought I'd share it and let you decide for yourself.

Playing Time

Player	Projected %	Actual %	Diff
J.J. Hardy	87.9%	67.1%	-20.8%
Craig Counsell	6.9%	13.6%	+6.7%
Alcides Escobar	5.3%	19.3%	+14%

Clearly, Hardy's underwhelming performance had something to do with him getting significantly less playing time, although his service time may also have had something to do with it. Escobar didn't play as much as many of us thought he should when Hardy was back in September, but still contributed nearly four times as often as we expected him to.

Again, when these projections were made Craig Counsell had yet to re-sign with the Crew. Many of us projected him to play anyway, but he likely would have gotten a larger share of the projection if we'd been sure he'd be back.

Overall:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Projected	.277	.344	.442	.785
Actual	.247	.306	.356	.662
Difference	-.030	-.038	-.086	-.123

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:01:31 -0000

by Ann Heisenfelt - AP

Carlos Gomez makes the wrong kind of contact.

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Some things to read while realizing you left your credit card in your other armor.

Thanks to Dan, Tyler and Rubie for filling in for me last week while I took a quick break to experience life in New York for a few days. Writing the Mug is no small feat, and all three of them did admirable work in my place, so be sure to stop by their sites today to thank them. It's good to be home. With that said, I'm going in for oral surgery in roughly an hour so I'm off again tomorrow, and I've lined up another of my favorite Brewer bloggers to fill in. I'm hoping to return on Wednesday but that will depend on how I bounce back and how coherent I am on Vicodin.

The Brewers, of course, saw fit to ruin a perfectly good day of my vacation by trading J.J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez. If you weren't around the site this weekend, you missed a lot of great content on the trade: Jordan weighed in with his disappointment, Jeff made the case for keeping Mike Cameron anyway, and Noah, writing his first weekend roundup, had a great collection of thoughts on the deal from around the web. With that said, there's still a bunch more out there:

The Transaction Oracle compared Gomez to Tom Goodwin and said, "Gomez's version of selectivity is staring blankly at a random pitch and then flailing at the next one."
Tom Powers of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press called Gomez "clueless" and said he "has the baseball instincts of an Icelandic grade-schooler." (h/t BBTF)
The Grand National Championships called Gomez "a Juan Pierre without all that incessant singles hitting."
TheJay has a look at the career paths of players who have made as many PAs as Gomez has at such a young age with such a low OBP. Not exceptionally pretty.
Aaron Gleeman says Gomez has gotten a bum rap, but also likes the deal for the Twins.
Miller Park Drunk has a roundup of other things people are saying about Gomez.
Meanwhile, despite Jeff's objections, Doug Melvin confirmed that the Brewers' decision to acquire Gomez means they won't make a push to retain Mike Cameron for 2010.
Nick's Twins Blog has an overview of the deal, including my scouting report for Hardy.
Twinkie Town has some questions about Hardy's defense (based largely on the comments of some frequent BCB'ers), and whether or not it's as good as advertised.
FanGraphs has a look at Hardy's defense, and rated him the third most valuable defensive player in baseball since 2007.
Along with the Red Sox (and presumably some others), the Reds confirmed interest in Hardy. Melvin didn't want to deal Hardy in the division, so he was forced to accept less from someone else.
The Ghost of Moonlight Graham called the deal a steal for the Twins.
Rubie Q called the deal "worst nightmare stuff."
Baseball-Intellect says the Twins got Hardy for "pennies on the dollar."
Sabernomics is having a hard time choosing a winner in the deal.
Jorge Says No! says this deal has the potential to be win-win.

As of this writing, 54% of voters in the poll on your right think the Twins won the trade, with just 13% picking the Brewers. Gomez is walking in the door with a large portion of the fans believing he's not worth much, and it can be tough to overcome that when you're carrying a sub-.300 OBP. This could be the deal that sinks Doug Melvin.

Now, the Brewers have to find a way to wisely spend the financial windfall. MLB Trade Rumors has the likely landing spots for this winter's top 50 free agents, and lists both Doug Davis and Jarrod Washburn as likely Brewers, and also lists the Crew as a potential interested party regarding Jon Garland. Meanwhile, they have Felipe Lopez as a Dodger, Mike Cameron as a Padre and Ben Sheets as a Ranger.

Beyond that, there's not a lot of Brewer news, unless you wanted to talk about the decision to decline David Weathers' option.

Around baseball:

D-Backs: Exercised Brandon Webb's option for 2010.
Dodgers: Declined Jon Garland's option for 2010.
Nationals: Declined Austin Kearns' option for 2010.
Phillies: Exercised Cliff Lee's option for 2010 and declined Pedro Feliz's.
Pirates: Designated pitchers Virgil Vazquez and Eric Hacker and catcher Steve Lerud for assignment.
Red Sox: Declined their option for 2010 on Alex Gonzalez.
Reds: Outrighted outfielder Danny Richar and first baseman Kevin Barker to AAA. Both will be minor league free agents.
Rockies: Declined options on catcher Yorvit Torrealba and Alan Embree.
Royals: Declined 2010 options for Coco Crisp, Miguel Olivo and Yasuhiko Yabuta.
Tigers: Removed outfielder Marcus Thames and catcher Matt Treanor from their 40-man roster.
White Sox: Bought out the final year of Jermaine Dye's contract.

I'm going to wrap this up quickly, because my pre-surgery meds are starting to kick in:

Miguel Olivo has been mentioned as a potential option for the Brewers next season. Beyond the Box Score has a comprehensive list of things he does well.
Phil Birnbaum looks at the possibility that younger umpires have more accurate strike zones.
Baseball Reference wants your thoughts to help improve their site.
Seventeen congressmen voted no on a resolution congratulating the Yankees for winning the World Series. One of them was Wisconsin rep Jim Sensenbrenner. (h/t Baseball Musings)

On this day in 1982, Robin Yount was the unanimous choice to win the AL MVP after leading the AL in hits, doubles, slugging, OPS, OPS+ and total bases, while playing shortstop for the AL Champion Brewers.

It's also a big day for Brewer birthdays:

Dave Bush turns 30.
Angel Miranda, who appeared in 116 games as a Brewer between 1993 and 1997, turns 40.
Dion James, who was the Brewers' first round pick in the 1980 draft, turns 47.
Teddy Higuera, arguably the greatest pitcher in Brewer history, turns 51. You should celebrate his birthday by purchasing the sponsorship on his Bref page, which is available for $10.

Drink up.

Morning Prowl: Arbitration Dilemmas, Free Agent Predictions, and Gibby's Managerial Aspirations

Ian Casselberry — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:00:54 -0000

The Tigers face quite a dilemma with their free agents, in regards to offering arbitration. Kurt Mensching tries to predict what decisions the team will make on Placido Polanco, Adam Everett, Fernando Rodney, and Brandon Lyon at Mack Avenue Tigers.

MLB Trade Rumors listed their Top 50 Free Agents for 2010, and Tim Dierkes forecasts where each of them will end up. He sees the Tigers being in on a couple of guys (you'll have to scroll down the list), and he has an interesting destination for Placido Polanco. (And if his Yankees predictions come true, I might just be disgusted.)

Will Detroit's effort to fill its shortstop vacancy be made more difficult by the Red Sox now also cruising the market after declining Alex Gonzalez's option for next year? Might they be interested in Adam Everett, or do they want more offense at that position? (Boston tried to get J.J. Hardy before the trade deadline, as well.)

The Freep's John Lowe exchanged e-mails with Brewers general manager Doug Melvin, who said he never contacted the Tigers about Hardy because they didn't have what he was looking for in return.

At The Detroit Tigers Weblog, Bill Ferris takes a look through The Bill James Handbook and lets us know how the Tigers stacked up in a variety of categories and stats.

More from Lowe: Did we know Kirk Gibson interviewed for the Cleveland Indians' manager job? I don't recall reading that anywhere else, but apparently he did. Gibby wants to be a major league manager, and feels his six years working as a bench coach (between the Tigers and Diamondbacks) have taught him plenty that he'd use in that role.

How did the two Tigers prospects do in Saturday night's Arizona Fall League Rising Stars Showcase? Casper Wells went 0-for-3, and Andrew Oliver allowed three baserunners in one inning of work, but didn't give up a run. (Here's the boxscore.)

Staying in Arizona for one more item, Lynn Henning reviews the performance of four Tigers prospects playing out there, including the aforementioned Wells and Oliver. (Cue your sad trombone for Cale Iorg.)

The Oakland Press' Pat Caputo thinks that Comerica Park (or its field) should not be named after Ernie Harwell.

Oh, the bonds that develop between baseball players and the beat reporters who cover them. MLB.com's White Sox beat writer Scott Merkin laments Chris Getz getting traded to the Royals, depriving him of someone to discuss University of Michigan football and basketball with. You can e-mail me, Scott.

Former future Tigers superstar-in-the-making Cameron Maybin is having shoulder surgery this offseason. Maybin has a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder. ("Always a Tiger," as Old English D says.)

And this is self-indulgent, but in our farewell post to Marcus Thames, rook34 mentioned his favorite Thames moment. It's one of my favorite memories of 2006, as well, and here's what I wrote about it in my pre-BYB days.

Where The Mets Might Fit In The Young Trade Market

Sam Page — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 11:00:29 -0000

In a weak free agent class, and maybe Omar Minaya's last year with the team, one would expect the Mets to make at least one splash in the trade market. So far, four semi-major trades have gone through, before the BBWAA has even announced its yearly award winners. The Mets didn't really "lose out" on any of those four players, but the trades do provide some insight into the evolving market, and how the Mets fit in.

Matt Cerrone noted in metsblog's coverage of the J.J. Hardy trade the other day that three of the four trades featured arbitration eligible players (Teahen, Hardy, Hermida) and cited a Buster Olney piece that claimed teams were eager to avoid the "broken" arbitration system. While I'll accept avoiding arbitration as a partial explanation, it ignores some of the other interesting angles of these deals. The idea that the team dealing the arbitration-eligible player decides between only two options: prospects or non-tendering, implies that they are desperate to deal the player and would accept any trade return. These three deals didn't bear that out.

Firstly, the Hermida deal most clearly fits the Olney-mold--the Marlins didn't want to pay arbitration money for a replacement level outfielder without a bunch of unrealized potential. Such a trade is standard procedure for the Marlins, however, and hardly--if at all--suggests an overarching market shift. From the perspective of the Red Sox, Hermida represented a high-upside reserve outfielder that cost minimal talent and money. If more arbitration-eligible players like Hermida are easily available, big-market teams like the Mets would obviously benefit in taking a flier on a few of them.

Mark Teahen, similar to Hermida in his recent replacement-level performance and past value, fetched Chris Getz and Josh Fields. While Getz lost his starting job to Gordon Beckham and Josh Fields just lost his starting job, both players having a starting job in the first place reflects track records of minor league success and some major league competency. Both players could be decent placeholders on an uncertain Royals infield, with the potential to be more. Dave Cameron went as far as calling this trade "fantastic" for the Royals, which may seem hyperbolic, but his analysis is pretty spot-on.

With both Hermida and Teahen, their respective teams were trying to avoid arbitration. The arbitration system is set to award those players salaries equal to or slightly more than they would be worth, but that seemingly has more to do with Hermida and Teahen being broken, than it does the arbitration system. Both player had performed well below expectation and past levels of performance, particularly defensively, which the arbitration process inherently undervalues, so they inevitably were going to get salaries bigger than they deserved, based on service time alone. Getting back to the original Olney/Cerrone point, I think the cause is correct, but the effect may be wrong. Yes, the arbitration system is broken, in that it will errantly award Teahen and Hermida above-market contracts, but that doesn't mean there will necessarily be a bunch of free, young, and talented arbitration-eligible players available, as Matt seems to suggest. It just means that some crappy arbitration-eligible players will be available, and not necessarily for nothing, as the Teahen trade indicated.

J.J. Hardy is actually a good counter-example. Tommy Bennett used the Hardy trade as a springboard to explain why, in economic terms, players of his caliber would not be part of Olney's "avalanche of non-tenders," but we have the benefit of already knowing the Brewers weren't operating under this prospect or non-tender paradigm. They were trading Hardy just as much because it saved money, as they had a potentially equal replacement in Alcides Escobar in waiting. And while some may have found Carlos Gomez an underwhelming return, in terms of strict value, the trade was completely fair. Gomez is under team control for 4 more years and is, because of his elite defense, at least a 1.5 WAR centerfielder. Hardy, who is ~4 WAR at SS, is the superior player now, but is more costly and a free agent in two years. The Kalkman trade calculator method, which subsumes these factors, judged Gomez a more valuable asset, and given his offensive upside (outfield Jimmy Rollins?), he seems like a more than fair return.

What this trade indicates, if anything, is that teams are willing to make perceptually unfair trades for less-stable assets of approximately equal value. It also perhaps shows a preference to fill one hole on the roster, as opposed to acquire a few more players that may be more valuable in theory, but redundant on the roster. Whereas proven-star for young player trades typically required a large package of elite prospects to get done, the Hardy trade, and even the Cliff Lee trade before it, seemingly suggest a move toward proper evaluation of young players, in which either a good-not-great package suffices or one stud younger player gets traded (Sanchez/Alderson?).

Maybe I'm reading too much into one trade, but this development would seemingly benefit the Mets more than a slew of crappy arbitration-eligible players hitting free agency. While the Mets don't have a set of young players with major-league success like Gomez (yay 2009 in-season development failure!), they do have a set of interesting tweener types with starter potential (Murphy, Evans, Parnell, Pagan) and a set of near-ready top prospects (Mejia, Davis, Niese, Martinez), whose value could be boosted in this market. While it would probably be selling low on many of those players, with the windows closing on the Mets "core," the Mets could be set up to make several win-now trades that are long-term losses of value. A Halladay trade centered around Mike Pelfrey? Or maybe shopping Daniel Murphy to a team with a thirdbase vacancy? We'll see.

Thoughts on the Hardy for Gomez Deal

Jordan M — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:29:58 -0000

More photos » by Steven Senne - AP

4 days ago: FILE - In this Feb. 23, 2009, file photo, Minnesota Twins' Carlos Gomez poses for a photograph. The Milwaukee Brewers traded J.J. Hardy to the Twins on Friday, Nov. 6, 2009, for outfielder Gomez. (AP Photo/Steven Senne,file)

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I like the acquisition of Gomez, before we start putting any context on this trade. He's a ridiculously good defender, one of the best centerfielders in the game due to his tremendous speed and range. Being an elite defender gives him plenty of value before even looking at his offensive contributions. There's a tendency to group together "good centerfielders"-- but there's a big difference between the tier of guys like Tony Gwynn Jr., Juan Pierre, and Jody Gerut, and truly elite defenders like Gomez.
Gomez, right now, is not a good offensive player. He's been basically a replacement-level hitter in his time in the big leagues so far. That does not mean he's been a replacement level player, though, because his stellar defense has made him worth between about 1 and 2 wins in his two full seasons. He has a career .286 wOBA, and the league average is around .333-- and wOBA includes stolen base contributions. His career slash line is .246/.292/.346.
There's reason to believe that Gomez has a much bigger offensive upside. He was a very highly regarded prospect in his day, and a major piece in the Johan Santana deal. In A-ball as a 19 year-old, he .275/.335/.380; then he came in with a .281/.350/.423 line at AA at age 20. He was bumped to the majors by the Mets at age 21 after hitting .271/.353/.361 in AAA. He's been in the majors since then, with that completed year and two more with the Twins, and hasn't cracked a .300 OBP. Just based on his profile, it has to be possible that there's an upside of even a .320-.330 OBP and .350 SLG this year, which would go a long way towards making Gomez a much more valuable player. He'd practically be an all-star if he was a league average hitter, but that's probably too much to ask for at this point. He'll be here for four years, though, so there's still hope.
Gomez is a lot of fun to watch. I usually don't get caught up in that type of stuff, but I always found it amusing to see him take a monster hack at a pitch and almost corkscrew himself into the ground, and then bunt on the next pitch. And his energy on the basepaths and ability in center will keep us entertained.
In terms of total value, this deal is pretty close to an even match. The expected value of Hardy's production over his salary in the next two years is very close to the amount of expected value of Gomez's production over his salary in the next four years. That's a strategy for a team that doesn't expect to be in contention for the next two years, however, so it doesn't quite make sense to me why the Brewers chose to do this type of deal. I'm just going to go ahead and quote Graham from Lookout Landing, who was disappointed that the Mariners didn't beat the Twins asking price for Hardy: In terms of money/talent, the deal makes a good amount of sense for both sides. The Twins get a big upgrade at shortstop, the Brewers deal from depth to cover a weak position (albeit not that well) for free, and have some more money to play with in free agency. As the return for a guy like Hardy, Gomez the talent is rather underwhelming, but the financial flexibility he provides is useful. Could/should the Brewers have gotten more for him? Yes. But they didn't, which is where this deal becomes weird from the Milwaukee side. They had an asset which had less value to them than to the rest of the league, but they sold him for his value to them rather than anyone else's, which is not the best trading strategy in the world.
The Brewers did everything wrong in their handling of Hardy. The last line from Graham pretty much sums up what I think-- they sold Hardy at the value to them rather than his actual value. The whole situation has been bizarre-- sending him to AAA and promoting Escobar to shake things up when there was no real reason for doing so expect gaining a year of service time that apparently increased his value to... Carlos Gomez. Yes, Hardy had a bad year. Projecting him with a weight of 3/2/1 for the last three seasons still gives a 2-3 win player with 5 win upside easily. Even at his worst, last season, he was better than Gomez was last year. And maybe the strangest part of this deal was the huge rush. It happened two days after the World Series, and Doug Melvin admitted he didn't even call a team with a shortstop shortage, the Tigers, much less the rest of the league. Not only did he sell Hardy at the absolute lowest point of his value, but he managed to pull the trigger so quickly there's no telling what might have happened had he held on longer. I doubt the Twins would have pulled their Gomez offer from the table.
Melvin didn't even touch the pitching staff with his biggest trading chip, and downgraded the offense. Sure, the extra savings from Hardy to Escobar and Cameron to Gomez give the Brewers some money to throw at a free agent pitcher. But that's not the logical way to look at it. Say the Brewers had accepted the apparent Red Sox offer of Michael Bowden for Hardy. Bowden, at the mininum, makes even less than Gomez next year, and Hardy's salary is gone either way. In this situation, with even a little bit more money to play with, they could re-sign Cameron to play center for maybe 1 year, $8-10 million because they don't have to worry about another pitcher-- or they could sign a righty centerfielder like Reed Johnson to platoon with Jody Gerut, a platoon which would project about the same as the Gomez and Gerut situation going on right now, in 2010 at least. Gomez is a better bet for the following three years, but remember that Lorenzo Cain and Logan Schafer are coming and might have been able to fill in the gap by 2011. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Would we rather be looking at a rotation of Gallardo, Parra, Bowden, Bush, Suppan with Cam in center and an extra $5 mil, or that same rotation with Gerut/platoonmate in center and $15 million to throw at Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, Rich Harden, or Justin Duchscherer? Again, it's such a strange idea to throw your most valuable trading chip at a really slight position player upgrade for 2010. It just looks like he's playing for down the road. If salary relief is one of the good parts of the trade... well, non-tendering J.J. would have gotten salary relief too. Getting Bowden would have accomplished the same thing. I don't know why we have to consider this a positive in the trade.
I really like the idea of getting Gomez here. He's a nice piece to have. Not for the price of Hardy, though. And I don't understand the way Doug Melvin handled this situation overall. He could have done so much better. I'll wait to judge his offseason until we see if the available money is handled the right way. One thing I will say now-- I hope the moves will be with a consistent goal in mind. Spending the money on starters like Washburn, Piniero, and Marquis would probably not upgrade the team enough to justify the spending and commitment, which is why I suggest 1 year deals for injury-prone pitchers. And if they do decide to target a pitcher, I hope Casey McGehee is more likely to be traded than Mat Gamel. Acquiring Gomez and dealing Gamel would probably indicate a confused set of goals about when the team's window of contention is.

Saturday Morning Poll: How Do You Feel Now?

Jesse — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:47:13 -0000

More photos » by Steven Senne - AP

We'll never see his bat-smelling in a Twins uniform again...(sniff)

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Happy? Sad? Hung-over?

After yesterday morning's blockbuster trade that sent Carlos Gomez to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for J.J. Hardy, we had a pretty extensive conversation on not just the merits of both players but also the fall-out for both teams.

But now that you've had a night to think about it, how do you feel? Are you (like me) still happy that Hardy is the new Snoopy? Or are a little broken up over losing Captain Zoom?

Poll

What say you?

Twins acquire J.J. Hardy

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:55:52 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

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The Twins have acquired shortstop J.J. Hardy from the Brewers in exchange for outfielder Carlos Gomez, according to ESPN.com. The Brewers battled internally about moving the popular shortstop, but his disappointing 2009 season, along with the emergence of prospect Alcides Escobar, signaled that it was time to make a move.

"J.J. has been a steady performer for the Brewers," Melvin said in a statement. "His professionalism and popularity with our fans and his teammates made this difficult, but he has been given the opportunity to go to a great organization to play and perform at the high level he is capable of playing."

Gomez, who came over in the Johan Santana trade before the 2007 season, is in his third year with the Twins. While he is only a .246 hitter with a disappointing .292 on-base percentage, he has incredible speed who stole a career high 33 bases in 2008. The soon-to-be 24-year old outfielder will likely take over in center field.

Hardy's 2007-2008 numbers were strong, meaning a change of scenery might be all the 27-year old outfielder needs. He's a career .262 hitter with a .323 on-base percentage.

This trade likely all but signals the end of Mike Cameron in Milwaukee and Orlando Cabrera in Minnesota.

Hardy for Gomez: A Defensive Win-Win

SFiercex4 — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:49:22 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Minnesota Twins' Carlos Gomez lays down a sacrifice bunt against the Houston Astros in the fifth inning of a baseball game Friday, June 19, 2009, in Minneapolis. He'll get to do more of that now that he's heading to Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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The hot stove just keeps a'burning, as news has come out that the Milwaukee Brewers have dealt shortstop J.J. Hardy to the Minnesota Twins for center fielder Carlos Gomez.

What does this trade mean for the teams involved? First off, it shows teams are very interested in defensive prowess in their players, as both Hardy and Gomez are well renowned for their gloves. But what about their overall value? The Trade Value Calculator has the (approximate) answer!

The Players

From the Milwaukee Brewers, we have the embattled J.J. Hardy. Hardy went through a torturous season in which he saw his wOBA drop from a career best in 2007, to league average mark in 2008, down all the way to a horrendous .292 this season, all according to FanGraphs. Partly as a result of his poor offensive production, the Brewers demoted him in late August, sparking the controversial claims that Hardy was demoted in order to manipulate his service time and allow the Brewers (or another would-be suitor for Hardy's services) to gain an extra year of team control before sending him off to free agency.

At the time, I spoke about Hardy's struggles with BABIP, Hardy's power numbers also suffered a drop, a result of a significantly lowered home run rate. Still, as I mentioned back in the linked article, Hardy was hitting average marks in pretty much every category except BABIP, so one could suspect that a bounce back season is in order for Hardy.

Doing a simple Marcel projection on his offensive numbers, then regressing to the mean of .330 yields a projected wOBA of .328. For this quick estimate, using Hardy's career UZR/150 of 11 runs seems fair. Based on the playing time Hardy saw in 2007 and 2008, projecting 150 games on him does not seem to be a stretch. At that kind of playing time (630 PA), here's what the Calculator says we should expect.

Hardy over the next two years, if we use the 40/60/80% market salary scale for an estimation of arbitration, could be expected to yield $10.5M in surplus value, not including any free agent compensation picks.

What about his counterpart in the deal? Carlos Gomez was once the prize of the Johan Santana trade from the Twins to the New York Mets, though most analysts say that neither the crown jewel or the entire bundle was worth Santana. Gomez began playing full time in center field last season for the Twin and was up and down. On the one hand, Gomez's defense was stellar. UZR measured Gomez at around 16 runs above average in 154 defensive games at the position, an absolutely stellar mark. This year, he continued the trend, posting around seven runs above average in 108 defensive games, splitting time with the plethora of Twins outfielders.

This would have all been well and good, if not for the other aspect that position players often have to do, the hitting. Gomez proved to be a terrible offensive player last year, posting a .294 wOBA according to FanGraphs. And he did no better in 349 PA this year, recording a .277 wOBA. Gomez walked less than the average player (career BB% 5.0%) and had no pop in his bat (career adjusted ISO .088). Furthermore, he's shown a tendency to strike out far more than a no-patience contact hitter ever should (career K% 21.9%)

For Gomez, I did a similar Marcels projection for his offense and on his UZR defense, regressing 100 defensive games to a mean of 0. For offense, I have Gomez projected at a .290 wOBA. After doing the projection/regression of his defense, Gomez comes out to a +10 runs / 150 defensive games. Giving Gomez the type of playing time he received in 2008 as a starter (approximately 4 PA per game, like a 7th hitter in the NL) and projecting him at 150 games and 600 PA, the calculator shows this.

That value does drastically underestimate his defense from 2008, when he was a 2.3 WAR player according to FanGraphs.

Conclusion

Even at the reduced level of production that Gomez is projected at, the years of control give him a slight edge in terms of value over J.J. Hardy. The time Hardy spent in the minors this year is going to help Minnesota recuperate some of the value lost by sending a decent piece to the Brewers. Overall, I think both teams will end up happy with the players they have acquired. I am almost certain that the Brewers' and Twins' pitchers will approve.