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The Great General Manager Debate: NL Central Edition

davoag — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

The trade that made me lose faith in the Pirates suckitude...

Part of my reaction to the Aki Iwamura trade was realizing how surprisingly competent the Pirates front office has become. They picked up a cost-controlled player for a replaceable part and improved their infield defense in the process. How is that a bad thing?

The funny thing is, the Pirates have been bad for so long, and it's so easy to dismiss their hires as actually being good baseball people, I had forgotten what Pittsburgh was actually getting in Neil Huntington. Here's another post from FanGraphs about what this trade means for the Pirates executives and here's an interview with Dan Fox, their database guru. Basically, the Pirates have a guy that gets to play with computer simulations all day until he can accurately evaluate and forecast players. I can get that job how?

It also made me start thinking about all the general managers in the National League Central. Which ones was I most afraid of? Which ones were a joke? Were there any teams that were run competently from year to year?

The thing that surprised me when I did my research was not that Ed Wade is probably the weakest GM in the Central, it's that so many of them have changed in the past two seasons. Justice loves to harp on how the organizational chaos Houston has gone through is affecting the club in many ways. Still, to see that so many of Wade's peers have also changed jobs recently is refreshing.

It's also scary, especially when at least four of these guys are competent-to-really good. After the jump is a look at each GM. Feel free to share your thoughts on who worries you the most in the comments...

Chicago Cubs

GM Jim Hendry

Tenure: Since July, 2002 ( 7 1/2 seasons)

Notes: The longest tenured general manager also has the biggest payroll of any team in the division. What does he do with all that money? Waste it. As scary as the Cubs lineup and rotation can be, Hendry alone makes me feel good about the Astros chances against Chicago in the near future.

This was a man who overpaid for guys like LaTroy Hawkins and Ted Lilly (though, to be fair, Lilly was excellent). He also spent a ton of money for Alfonso Soriano to play center field, and then promptly bumped him to left. Then, he spent a ton of money to bring in notorious pot-stirrer Milton Bradley, adding to the dangerous clubhouse dynamic that Lou Piniella always brings.

Funny thing, though, 134 million can buy you a damned good team. Hendry may have made mistakes in the past, but has done a good job of at least correcting them. He admitted failure with Rich Hill, shipping him off to Baltimore. He did turn Ryan Dempster into an effective pitcher in his new role with the Cubs. Hendry also has a productive farm system, with guys like Carlos Marmol and Geovanny Soto picking up the team on the cheap.

Would Hendry be this good without all that money? Probably not. In his market, though, it's tough not to make a big splash each season and have the fans be happy. Of all the GMs, though, I'm least afraid of Hendry.

Cincinnati Reds

GM Walt Jocketty

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.

The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot.

Milwaukee Brewers

GM Doug Melvin

Tenure: Since September 2002 (7 seasons)

Notes: One of the two longest tenured GMs in the NL Central, Melvin has had an up-and-down career in Milwaukee. Yes, he did draft Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder. Yes, he did trade for CC Sabathia. But, what have the Brewers actually won? This team seems to consistenly play for second place, which isn't bad, but until they can get over the hump mentally, Melvin may not be viewed more positively.

All indications are that Melvin is a more traditional GM. The Brewers don't leap out at you as a very sabermetric-friendly team, but they do have a little bit of the Oakland A's philosophy for a small market. The Brewers under Melvin consistently make unpopular decisions with players to avoid locking them up to bad contracts that hurt the team. Instead, they'll buy out arbitration years for a player, insuring cost certainty and rewarding young guys before they may be overpaid. Exhibit one is Ryan Braun.

Certainly, the biggest deficiency with the club is starting pitching. Melvin has shown a knack for making big moves (CC), regardless of his position as a small market team. He's also done a good job of drafting by talent and not positional needs (Matt LaPorta, anyone?). The obvious plus side of this is Melvin can then trade for pitching with his talent surplus. It will be interesting to see if Melvin can keep the pipeline going for the Brewers and tinker around the edges enough to get a winner.

Pittsburgh Pirates

GM Neil Huntington

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: Here is the crux of my argument. The Pirates are without a doubt the worst-run franchise in the National League. For years, they have been incompetent, both in the draft, in trades and in fielding winning ball clubs. Who can forget Randall Simon viciously attacking that poor Bratwurst in Milwaukee? Just horrible. Still, Huntington has done a great job of reversing this trend. He correctly indentified assets that were expendible, seems to have valued his minor leaguers correctly and his only big misstep so far has been the Bay trade. The big deal with the Yankees netted the Buccos a solid starter in Ross Ohlendorff and a young outfielder in Jose Tabata (who hasn't panned out). The Bay deal saw an iffy Andy LaRoche, a reliever (Craig Hanson) and a fourth or fifth outfielder (Brandon Moss) traded for one of the best left fielders in baseball.

Of course, if the Pirates had let Bay walk after the season like the Red Sox have, they'd be roundly criticized. The organization seems to be headed in the right direction. Count me as still skeptical, though, even with present evidence to the contrary.

St. Louis Cardinals

GM John Mozeliak

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: Mozeliak took over a team that didn't have much to work with outside of a couple big money players (Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter) and a ton of farm talent. He's tinkered around the edges well and leaned heavily on his manager and pitching coach's reputations to slot in marginal guys into productive roles. Mozeliak stuck by Colby Rasmus through early slumps and made a big-ticket acquisition of Matt Holliday.

There are conflicting reports about his style, but it seems like he appreciates what the stats can tell him about the game and uses it to some degree. Yet, his philosophy seems to be grating on the older school ideas of Tony LaRussa. Combine that with his cold-blooded trade of Dave Duncan's son, Chris, and he's done quite a bit to alienate two of the most important cogs to the Cardinals machine for the past decade. Not that I'm complaining.

There are both good and bad qualities here, but I don't think we can judge Mozeliak fairly until he's out from under LaRussa's considerable shadow (the man's a genius, after all).

Houston Astros

GM Ed Wade

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: So, the thing about Ed Wade is he can't trade. I said some nice things in the past about the job he did leading up to this past season, but after reviewing his track record in Philly, I have a suggestion. Ed Wade needs to hire some smart, baseball-savvy mind to be his trade manager. Like a salary-cap manager in football, this person would handle all the ramifications of trades (scouting players, balance, contracts, etc.) and give his best recommendation to Wade. Only then could the big man sign off.

If you think I exaggerate, look at his transactions. Here's a link to Baseball-Reference's transaction page starting in 1998. Wade took over in January of that year. In his entire Philly tenure, he made two good trades: Billy Wagner and Kenny Lofton. Every other trade he made was a bloodbath. Eric Milton? He gave up Nick Punto and Carlos Silva. Scott Rolen? He got Placido Polanco and that's it. He traded Curt Schilling for nothing. He traded away a young Adam Eaton for a declining Andy Ashby. He traded two young pitchers for two relievers and Ron Gant. Who thought this was a good idea? In fact, Wade's history is chock-full of trades for relievers. It's the position he enjoys tinkering with most on the team. Unfortunately, relievers are fungible, and trading for them wastes cheap assets.

Thus, why I had the idea of a trade manager. I'm sure someone like Paul DiPodesta or Kevin Towers wouldn't mind being the Astros full-time trade scout, right? Either one would be imminently more qualified than Wade to make these kinds of decisions. And yes, I realize that Wade has made some decent trades with the Astros. Sticking to the numbers, though? That streak may not last forever.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 13:42:24 -0000

Yes, this is a picture of Trevor Hoffman with his dog from the Brewers' 2010 Pet Calendar, via Adam McCalvy. This might be the slowest news day ever.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while having it both ways.

If we're not hearing much from the Brewer front office this week, it's because they're in Arizona working on a plan for the offseason.

Here's proof that it's been a quiet week: The Brewers' Wives announced the release of their 2010 Pet Calendar, and it's one of today's top stories.

Keith Law chatted with fans again yesterday, and View From Bernie's Chalet has a roundup of all the Brewer-related notes. Today's topics include a terrible Ryan Braun trade proposal and Rickie Weeks.

The full article is Insider-only, but Jason Gray of ESPN has a look at Jonathan Lucroy, and the sudden shift that has led to him being considered the organization's top catching prospect.

Elsewhere in the minors:

I don't remember if I've seen/mentioned this previously, but Baseball America's Minor League Transaction Report noted that the Brewers re-signed former first round pick Mike Jones as a minor league free agent. Jones reached AAA for the first time in 2009.
The Timber Rattlers are asking for your help to pick a first baseman for their 15th anniversary team. Follow the link for bios on the candidates, then jump over to the front page to vote.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Claimed pitcher Sean Henn off waivers from the Orioles and designated Michael Barrett for assignment.
Mariners: Outrighted first baseman Bryan LaHair, and pitchers Randy Messenger, Cesar Jimenez and Marwin Vega to AAA. Vega is the only one who won't become a minor league free agent.
Orioles: Declined their option for 2010 on Melvin Mora.
Pirates: Claimed left handed pitcher Justin Thomas off waivers from the Mariners.

Do you have software development and/or engineering skills and the desire to find a job where you can spend the day talking sports? SB Nation is hiring for a couple of positions.

Oh, and speaking of open positions, you have until the end of the day today to express interest in the Weekend Editor position here at BCB. I'm planning on making a decision tonight or tomorrow.

Happy birthday today to Manny Parra, who turns 27. Hopefully Rick Peterson turns out to be an early birthday present for him.

Elsewhere, happy birthday to:

Laynce Nix, who turns 29.
Former Brewer farmhand Marco Scutaro, who turns 34.
Dave Valle, who played in 16 games for the 1994 Brewers and turns 49.
And a posthumous happy birthday to longtime Milwaukee Brave Joe Adcock, who would have turned 82.

Drink up.

Who Would You Rather Have: Alex Rodriguez or Chase Utley?

raygu — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

Time for the World Series edition of Who Would You Rather Have? CBS Sportsline recently completed a 5x5 mixed league mock draft, and Chase Utley was selected 4th overall before Ryan Braun, Joe Mauer and Alex Rodriguez to name a few. After Utley went deep twice on Wednesday night do you select him before ARod? Or is ARod still a more valuable fantasy player?

Let's take a look at their 2009 stats:

Name	AB	H	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chase Utley	571	161	31	112	93	88	110	23	0.282	0.397	0.508	0.905
Alex Rodriguez	444	127	30	78	100	80	97	14	0.286	0.402	0.532	0.934

ARod had better overall numbers across the board in less ABs, but Utley is one of the few stud fantasy players at 2B, and there is more depth at 3B than at 2B, right? I am not so sure.

More after the jump:

Here are the third baseman who hit more than 20 HRs in 2009:

Name	HR
Mark Reynolds	44
Ryan Zimmerman	33
Evan Longoria	33
Alex Rodriguez	30
Kevin Youkilis	27
Brandon Inge	27
Pablo Sandoval	25
Mark DeRosa	23
Michael Young	22

And here the second baseman who hit more than 20 HRs in 2009:

Name	HR
Aaron Hill	36
Chase Utley	31
Ian Kinsler	31
Dan Uggla	31
Ben Zobrist	27
Robinson Cano	25
Jose Lopez	25
Clint Barmes	23
Brandon Phillips	20

One could make the case that third base is a scarce postion in 2010, especially if you think that Mark DeRosa is tailing off as a fantasy player and don't think Brandon Inge can hit 27 HRs again. Of course the Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez should hit 30+ HRs should he stay healthy in 2010, but can one count on Chipper Jones or Scott Rolen to hit 20+ HRs again?

Second base is not as scarce as it used to be with Aaron Hill having a breakout (career?) year in 2009, and Ben Zobrist coming out of nowhere to hit 27 HRs in 2009. I won't count on Clint Barmes hitting 20+ HRs again, especially with the AVG that comes with it. Could the Braves Martin Prado sneak into the 20+ HR range with regular playing time in 2010?

So, with all that said, who would you rather have?

Poll

Who would you rather have: Chase Utley or Alex Rodriguez?

Taking a look at some early projections

KLSnow — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:35:51 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Can Rickie Weeks bounce back and have a strong 2010?

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Earlier this week, ACTA Sports sent me a preview of the hitter projections from 2010's Bill James Handbook. Obviously, it's still really early, but I found some of the projections interesting, so I thought I'd pass them along to you.

Let's start with your likely leadoff hitter for the 2010 Brewers:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Rickie Weeks	425	.259	.357	.449	80	48	23	5	16	56	100

It's probably worth noting that even Bill James, who tends to be relatively optimistic, doesn't project Weeks to play a full season in 2009 (he has him at 114 games). Even so, these numbers are probably a little optimistic. The .259 average is a slight drop from 2009, but the .357 OBP is actually 17 points higher. Weeks was off to a hot start slugging in 2009, posting a .517 slugging percentage, but this .449 projection would be easily the second highest of his career.

Other potential second basemen:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Felipe Lopez	565	.281	.352	.400	79	58	31	3	10	60	104
Craig Counsell	342	.246	.337	.327	45	25	15	2	3	42	51

While James has Lopez playing a full season, he projects to be less productive, losing 55 OPS points to Weeks. This line for Counsell looks fair, although the Brewers are likely in trouble if they actually need him for 342 ABs.

Follow the jump for lots more projections!

Both because he could feasibly bat #2 and because he's possibly the most interesting projection:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Alcides Escobar	504	.288	.326	.377	75	48	22	4	5	28	77

If Escobar can put up this kind of season and still play the level of defense we've come to expect from him, I'll be overjoyed. James also projects him to steal 42 bases in 54 attempts, adding roughly 18 bases to his value. The walk total may look low, but it's actually a bit optimistic: Escobar only averaged 23.3 walks per season over six years in the minors. Escobar's primary source of value will almost certainly always be his glove, but if he can put up a .700 OPS in the majors then he'll be a significantly above average contributor at short.

The other option, of course, is J.J. Hardy:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
J.J. Hardy	528	.254	.320	.422	70	68	28	2	19	50	92

This isn't as strong of a bounce back as I was expecting to see. Certainly, Hardy adds a little bit of power over Escobar, but his OBP is actually a little lower, and his base-stealing ability is completely negligible (James projects Hardy to go 1-for-1 stealing bases). These numbers are roughly the midpoint between Hardy's very good 2008 season and extremely disappointing 2009.

Moving on, I think it's pretty safe to assume Ryan Braun will be batting third and playing left field on Opening Day, unless Anthony Witrado is promoted to GM:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Ryan Braun	615	.315	.378	.593	112	119	42	6	39	53	112

Those are MVP-quality numbers if ever I've seen them. Braun projects to be an elite player again next season, and if the award doesn't go to Albert Pujols (projected to go .333/.443/.642 with 44 home runs), Braun might have to be considered the frontrunner. These numbers would set new career highs in slugging, RBI, doubles and home runs, while tying a career low in strikeouts.

And, unless something changes before spring, Prince Fielder will likely be hitting behind Braun:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Prince Fielder	601	.286	.393	.574	103	124	37	2	44	96	135

With these numbers, Fielder would still be one of the National League's premier hitters, but his production would actually decline a bit from 2009's numbers in all three slash stats, RBI, home runs and walks. Fielder won't turn 26 until May, so it seems strange to project him to decline, even slightly. With that said, he'll still be one of the NL's elite hitters.

The way things stack up at present, the leading candidate to bat fifth and play third base is likely Casey McGehee:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Casey McGehee	492	.272	.328	.429	63	76	30	1	15	41	86

Like many of us, James expects McGehee to come back down to Earth a little, but these projections still have him as a solid-to-slightly above average third baseman. All three slash lines are significant steps down from the .301/.360/.499 numbers he put up in 2009.

The other option, of course, is some guy the Brewers have on the end of the bench:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mat Gamel	455	.277	.354	.464	65	73	28	3	17	53	142

These projections, especially the OBP, seem a little high, but Gamel projects to outperform McGehee in nearly every way en route to a .818 OPS. This is yet another piece of evidence to be used in the argument that the Brewers should sell high on McGehee to make room for Gamel in the lineup.

(I know at least a few of you would probably like to see a projection for Adam Heether here, but he doesn't appear in James' projections. Sorry.)

Until told otherwise, I'm going to continue to assume Mike Cameron will return to play center field and bat sixth:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mike Cameron	561	.237	,328	.428	79	74	32	3	23	71	171

These numbers aren't the best argument for opening the checkbook to keep him around. Clearly, James is expecting age to catch up with Cameron, who would lose 13 points in average, 14 in OBP, 24 in slugging, and strike out over 170 times for just the second time in his 16 year career. These numbers still aren't terrible, and combined with good defense Cameron is still likely an above average center fielder. But, with that said, paying anything like his $10 million 2009 salary for performance at this level is a questionable decision.

Dropping all the way to the seventh spot in the lineup in right field, here's Corey Hart:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Corey Hart	533	.272	.332	.467	78	76	37	5	19	43	110

This would actually be a pretty nice bounce-back season for Hart, with his highest batting average, slugging percentage and run total since 2007. Entering his age 28 season, it's possible Hart will never be the player we all thought he might be after hitting .295/.353/.539 three years ago, but these numbers would be acceptable for a corner outfielder.

While we're on the subject, here are the projections for some other outfielders on the Brewer roster:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Frank Catalanotto	110	.273	.360	.418	14	12	8	1	2	10	14
Jody Gerut	162	.259	.326	.420	23	20	9	1	5	14	25

I'm not sure either of these stat lines suggest either of these guys should play everyday, but they project to be solid fourth and fifth outfielders next season, and if it won't cost too much to do so, I'd be fine with bringing both back. Thankfully, there's no projection for Corey Patterson.

I'm preparing myself for disappointment by operating under the assumption that Jason Kendall will continue to catch and tie up the eighth spot in the batting order again next season.

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Jason Kendall	409	.254	.338	.320	43	35	19	1	2	37	44

I'm not sure what James is smoking here, because even this lackluster projection seems a little too high. In two seasons as a Brewer, Kendall has hit ..244/.329/.315, and I'm not sure he can even repeat that at age 36, much less improve upon all three numbers. Kendall is likely getting the benefit of the doubt based on an extensive major league career, but recent evidence would suggest he's sliding downhill, not mounting a comeback. I'm not sure where one finds the data to support even a small offensive resurgence from a weak-hitting 36 year old catcher.

Interestingly enough, James' projections don't have Mike Rivera, but they do have Angel Salome:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Angel Salome	240	.296	.345	.442	30	39	15	1	6	18	45

This is much higher than I would have projected Salome, who I think might be the third best of the three internal options to replace Kendall next season (Sadly, Jonathan Lucroy is also not projected). With that said, Salome is projected to out-OPS Kendall by 129 points. Remember what it was like when the Brewers had a catcher that wasn't an offensive black hole? Me either. I'd love to see what that's like.

So, what do you think of these projections?

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 13:43:48 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

Jason Bourgeois, seen here celebrating his solo home run on Aug. 28, is expected to compete for a roster spot in Houston.

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Some things to read while having a new reason to hate Ft. Wayne.

The Brewers cleared a spot on their 40-man roster yesterday, but not in the way they had planned: The Astros claimed Jason Bourgeois off waivers when the Brewers tried to outright him to AAA (FanShot). Bourgeois hit .189/.250/.270 in 40 plate appearances as a Brewer, and .316/.354/.410 with 36 steals in 454 PAs for Nashville. Astros GM Ed Wade said he liked Bourgeois' versatility and expects him to compete for a spot in the outfield next spring.

With the World Series nearly ready to open, the Brewers are getting closer to decision time on Felipe Lopez. Baseball Reflections rated him as the top potential free agent second baseman this offseason.

It also wouldn't surprise me to discover they're working on a deal involving J.J. Hardy. Baseball Intellect took a look at Hardy's mechanics in an attempt to identify issues that came up last season, but found no notable changes. He expects Hardy to have a big bounce back season with a fresh start next spring.

We spent most of yesterday discussing Trevor Hoffman in the comments of yesterday's Mug. Today, we have more on Hoffman, as Miller Park Drunk has a post straddling the fence on the issue.

Up for more MVP talk? Quevedo at the Buffet has Prince Fielder second and Ryan Braun ninth on their MVP ballot.

In the minors and winter leagues:

Project Prospect ranked Brett Lawrie as the third best second base prospect in all of baseball. That's pretty high praise for a guy who's only spent a few weeks above Low-A.
Not only did Adam Heether hit in the minors this season, he's also spending the offseason in Venezuela showing off his grit: Plunk Everyone notes that Heether is tied for the VWL lead with 5 HBP.
The AFL's Peoria Javelinas picked up a 2-1 victory last night, moving into a tie for first place in the Western Division, with 20 games to play. You can read more about last night's game in today's Fall/Winter League Update.

While some Brewer farmhands spend the offseason in Arizona and across Latin America sharpening their skills, three other Brewers are in a variety of other places:

Rick Peterson was at the MLB Network Studios in New Jersey yesterday doing some taping for 3P Sports, his side venture. I guess I assumed some of that work would get back-burnered once Peterson was officially a Brewer.
Trevor Hoffman attended a U2 concert at the Rose Bowl with Rob Dibble.
Ryan Braun continues to work on his new restaurant. Adam McCalvy has more details on the plans for the Lake Geneva launch (scheduled for April), and the possibility of rapid expansion into Madison and/or Milwaukee. Meanwhile, Miller Park Drunk is not high on the idea.

I'm not quite ready to start looking ahead to Christmas yet but, if you are, then you may be interested in hearing more about the Brewer Holiday Cards that will be released on Friday. They'll be released as part of an event to "launch" Brewer Charities' presence on Twitter.

Just a quick reminder, in case you missed it yesterday: Brew Crew Ball is looking to add a weekend editor. Here are the details on what we're looking for. I'm hoping to wrap up the search within the next few days, so if you're interested, be sure to let me know.

Just one transaction note to pass along today:

Pirates: Pitcher Tyler Yates rejected an outright assignment to the minors and will become a free agent.

I've already announced my World Series allegiance: I'll be casually rooting for the Phillies if I happen to be in a place where the game's on, but I also doubt I'll stay up late enough to catch the end of most of the games. Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks also makes a half-hearted argument for supporting the Phillies. Amazin' Avenue will be cheering for the team that doesn't have Shane Victorino, and MetsGrrl reminds us that we're not legally obligated to pick a side. We'll have more on the topic later today.

Meanwhile, an unexpected prospect is making himself the early story of the Arizona Fall League. Grant Desme, a center fielder in the A's organization who just finished his first full professional season and has never played above High-A, has eight home runs in his first ten games, and is on pace to break the AFL record set by Angels prospect Brandon Wood in 2005. Desme has been the AFL's Player of the Week in each of the league's first two weeks.

Once the AFL is over, are you ready for the AWL? This is the first I'd heard of it, but apparently the Arizona Winter League is a showcase for independent players looking to latch on with a team before spring training. Players will report to their teams on January 24. In perhaps the most confusing part, the league has Arizona in its name but has four teams in a Canadian division. Baseball in Canada in January doesn't strike me as a good idea.

Happy birthday to two long time Brewers born on the same day: 1982 AL Cy Young Award winner Pete Vuckovich and four time 12-game winner Bill Travers. Both turn 57 today.

Oh, and today is a Woot-off day.

Drink up.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:46:19 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Keith Law says the Brewers spent too much on Trevor Hoffman.

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Some things to read while the tables are turned.

View From Bernie's Chalet has the transcript of a recent chat with Keith Law over at ESPN where he touched on several Brewer-related topics, but the most notable was probably Trevor Hoffman. He thinks the Brewers made a mistake bringing Hoffman back at the price they're paying, and that it will handicap their efforts to improve the team elsewhere.

Admittedly, $8 million is a lot to pay a reliever, but it's possible there's a perception benefit from having an elite closer. When the Brewers announced the Hoffman signing, Doug Melvin suggested free agent pitchers may be more likely to sign with a club with an established closer. I have no idea if it's true, but I suppose it's possible. And if Hoffman pitches a full, effective season as a Brewer and notches his 600th save, it's possible he'll pay for himself in publicity and marketing.

Elsewhere on the pitching front, rumors continue to swirl around the possibility that the Brewers could have interest in Mark Mulder. Mulder probably can't be depended upon for significant innings, but bringing a pitcher of his caliber into the fold on a cheap deal to see what he can do is almost always a good idea.

Mulder, of course, pitched under Rick Peterson in Oakland. Mets Merized recently conducted an interview with Peterson, and has audio clips of some of Peterson's thoughts on developing prospects and pitch counts. (h/t Rob Neyer)

Although unlikely, it's still possible Peterson could spend 2010 helping Ben Sheets return to form. Sheets, who had his high school number retired this weekend, is throwing off flat ground and expects to pitch in the majors next season. Jorge Says No! wonders what he'll get on the open market.

If Jeff Suppan was on the market this offseason, he likely wouldn't command much at all. Suppan was the winner of Brew City Sports' Hendy Award, which will look great on his mantle next to a photocopy of the $12.5 million paycheck he'll take home next season.

Hopefully this will be the only career parallel between Suppan and Ryan Braun: Braun is opening a restaurant in Lake Geneva. Braun is also giving away autographed baseballs to the first 100 fans to spend at least $150 on Remetee clothing at Solis in Las Vegas. If you stop by in January, there might still be some left.

We won't know the actual results until sometime after the World Series, but Baseball Digest Daily had Prince Fielder third in their balloting for NL MVP, and Braun fifth.

The JS has a note on Jonathan Lucroy's early performance in the AFL, which has been pretty impressive. He's only racked up 19 at bats, though, so it's probably a little early to get too excited. Tom H. also mentions "poor starts" from both Lorenzo Cain and Taylor Green. Both are hitting under .250 but have OBPs of .364 and .400, respectively (in 50 combined ABs). We have more on all three prospects and the rest of the Brewer winter leaguers in today's Fall/Winter League Update.

Around baseball:

Cubs: Removed utilityman Bobby Scales from their 40-man roster.
Indians: Hired Manny Acta as their new manager.
Mets: Removed catcher Robinson Cancel, shortstops Wilson Valdez and Argenis Reyes and pitcher Carlos Muniz from their 40-man roster.
Padres: Are expected to name former Red Sox Assistant GM Jed Hoyer as their new GM.

After two searches and interviews involving over a dozen candidates, the Indians and Astros both settled on Acta as the best candidate to manage their teams next season. The Indians, however, were willing to offer a three-year deal with an option for a fourth, and the Astros were only willing to offer two years. Houston is reportedly considering Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills and former Astros and Brewers manager Phil Garner.

So, the World Series matchup is set. I guess I'll be rooting for the Phillies out of sheer anti-Yankee bias and some form of vague NL pride. Rob Neyer notes that it'd be nice if the games started earlier, so they won't drag on past midnight, but that seems unlikely. Meanwhile, the new Yankee Stadium didn't even make it through its first season without some structural concerns: cracks in pedestrian ramps have already started to appear. The concrete was poured by a local firm that had previously been banned from doing city work because of suspected ties to organized crime.

The ALCS wasn't actually decided until late last night, but apparently the result was already known, as MLB.com started selling AL Champion Yankees gear well before the final out was recorded. This has drawn a lot of backlash but maybe we're looking at it the wrong way: Maybe MLB should start selling World Series gear for every team in Spring Training.

The Florida Winter Baseball League opens play this week with teams in four cities, composed mainly of low-level minor leaguers. I haven't checked the rosters for Brewers yet, but a successful, competitive winter league based in Florida could be a huge development for American minor leaguers who want to play winter ball but either don't speak Spanish or simply don't want to spend the winter in Latin America.

If you'd like to read more about life in the Arizona Fall League but your attention span is really short, then you're the perfect candidate to follow Scottsdale Scorpions Clubhouse Manager Chad Chiffin on Twitter.

While some minor leaguers head off to winter ball, one major leaguer will spend the offseason in Washington: Pirates pitcher Ross Ohlendorf is spending the offseason on an internship with the Department of Agriculture.

Last week I mentioned the continuing debate on John Lannan, who has posted effective ERAs for two seasons without many of the peripheral stats one would expect from a successful pitcher. Nick Steiner of The Hardball Times has Part 2 of his look at Lannan, looking primarily at pitch sequencing. Steiner concludes that luck is the most likely option.

I'm going to be late for Gorman's vet appointment if I don't wrap this up asap, so here's what I have left:

Minor leaguer Shawn Haviland on the importance of throwing two of the first three pitches for strikes.
Recondite Baseball on hitters who hit .300 but had short careers anyway.

Happy birthday today to Rafael Novoa, who pitched 56 innings for the 1993 Brewers and turns 42 today, and to Mark Sweeney, who appeared in 119 games for the 2000-2001 Brewers and turns 40.

Also, a posthumous happy birthday to Gus Polidor, who would have turned 48 today.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you want to see a Jose Valentin autograph or win one from Miguel Tejada.

And if you'd like to win something autographed by Seth McClung, don't forget to enter the Bring Back Seth McClung contest.

Drink up.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:04:13 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Ryan Braun celebrates with Prince Fielder after Braun hit a two-run home run against the Nationals in July.

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Some things to read while not crossing the line.

Ryan Braun was a unanimous pick for The Sporting News' Postseason NL All Star Team (FanShot). Prince Fielder was left off the team to make room for some guy named Pujols.

As it turns out, though, it's not all good news for Braun. As noted in this comment in yesterday's Mug, Braun missed the cutoff for becoming arbitration eligible as a Super 2 player by just 12 days. If Braun had qualified, the Brewers would have owed him an additional $6 million over the course of his contract.

There's not much else for Brewer news today, so let's jump straight into the minor league notes:

Project Prospect has a look at four major Top 100 prospect lists issued before the season, the differences between them and what they say about their respective publications. Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar and Jeremy Jeffress each appeared on all four lists. Angel Salome appeared on three.
Behind their pay-wall, Baseball-Intellect has some video and a scouting report from a Jake Odorizzi game in Helena in July. I haven't seen it myself, but if you're a subscriber (or have some time to kill and $3 to burn), then it might be worth a look.

Clearly, the Brewers have some holes that need patching this offseason. Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks thinks they could fix one of them by cloning Bob Uecker.

In the meantime, since the Brewers have yet to perfect the cloning technology, they're looking to hire a retail merchandising assistant.

Bobby Valentine sat down with reporters yesterday after interviewing for the managerial vacancy in Cleveland, and told reporters he doesn't know anything about the team, the AL Central or the American League. As one might imagine, that's raised a few red flags...but I also think Ken Macha might have said something similar if asked the same question after his interview in Milwaukee last year.

Speaking of people whose stock might be falling, Nationals Enquirer has a look at some of the red flags surrounding likely #1 overall pick Bryce Harper. If the Nats don't select Harper first overall, it's possible his salary demands and other factors could lead to him falling precipitously in the draft, and he could be a candidate for the Brewers. This topic also came up in yesterday's Mug comments, where Jeff made a great point:

One problem with Bryce is that he’s really young. By opting for community college, he’s getting himself into the draft a year earlier than high-school picks.

That’s good for him in the long run, but remember that the team that drafts him only cares about his first six years in the bigs.

Now, maybe Harper will be like A-Rod, show up and mash, but if he forces his way to the big leagues by age 19, he’s a FA at 25, with his prime ahead of him. "The potential to be one of the greatest players of all time" is only relevant if you’re buying some of his seasons of greatness.

The bloom is off the rose in San Diego, where Gaslamp Ball is now refusing to refer to Anthony Gwynn Jr. as "Tony" until he finishes a full season batting .300. I wouldn't have mentioned it, but it's a slow news day.

Since today's Mug is short, you'll probably have some time to kill once you're done reading it, and if you do, I highly recommend this Sporcle quiz asking for each team's career leaders in hits, home runs, wins and saves. I got 57.

Happy birthday today to David Riske, who turns 33.

Drink up.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 13:40:29 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Former Brewers manager Ned Yost looks great with someone else's logo behind him.

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Some things to read while keeping your pimp hand fuzzy.

The search for a new pitching coach might be about to get much more interesting: Rick Peterson, considered by most the odds on favorite to get the job, is also interested in the vacancy in Florida. If Peterson turns out to be unavailable, the search may start from scratch.

Meanwhile, yesterday was interview day for Ned Yost in Houston. Inexplicably, Yost still doesn't seem to understand why he was let go in Milwaukee, and said this when asked about it:

"Don't lose 10 out of 13 games is the best thing I can figure," Yost told reporters in Houston, "and hope your offense stays on track so you don't struggle to score runs."

Alyson Footer also quoted him as saying the Astros are "one starter away from having a really good staff." If the Astros hire Yost, fans in Houston can look forward to a 2010 season full of "really battling" and "being one pitch away from getting out of it."

In yesterday's Mug, I noted that Mike Burns had been outrighted to AAA, but neglected to mention that he's injured: He presumably still has the labrum pathology that he was diagnosed with at the end of the season. It's a bit more challenging to demote an injured player, but TheJay has a look at the CBA's rules regarding such transactions.

I also mentioned Jon Heyman's decision to leave Prince Fielder off his MVP ballot. Thankfully, we're not the only ones upset about it: James Bailey of Hardball Cooperative has an in-depth look at Heyman's ballot, and the reasons Fielder should be on it.

Plunk Everyone has compiled a list of difficulty rankings for several stats around baseball: Follow the link to see where Jason Kendall, Ryan Braun, Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, Prince Fielder, Braden Looper, Mike Cameron, Yovani Gallardo and Felipe Lopez rank among the best in baseball at the things they do.

If we learned one thing about Jody Gerut this season, it's this: he's miscast as a bench player. Among the 20 most frequently used pinch hitters in baseball this season, Gerut ranked 17th in OPS off the bench, ahead of only Mark Loretta, Greg Norton and Greg Dobbs. I have a feeling we'll have "Who is the real Jody Gerut?" conversations on more than one occasion this winter.

Further proof that it'd be really, really difficult to get fair value back in a deal involving Ryan Braun: Rowland's Office has a hypothetical deal sending Braun to the Braves for Jair Jurrjens, one of the game's top young pitchers. Even if you assume their expected values were exactly the same, Jurrjens has a few days over 2 years of service time, meaning he's under team control for four more seasons (through 2013), and will be arbitration eligible after next season. Braun, meanwhile, is under contract and cost controlled for two extra seasons (through 2015), and his salary never exceeds $12 million.

(I use Cot's Contracts all the time for info like that, and frequently forget to cite them. If you need contract info, Cot's is the place for it.)

In the AFL and on the farm:

Project Prospect's Friday topic of conversation is Lorenzo Cain, who's off to a pretty good start in the AFL and is expected to play roughly 4 times a week in an effort to bounce back from a rough 2009 season. They've also got a nice primer on what to expect from the AFL and they're looking for a scouting report on the speed of Taylor Green.
Wisconsin Sports Tap has a look at the season that was for the Huntsville Stars. It's kinda bleak down there, but Jonathan Lucroy is a nice bright spot.
Actually, statistics would suggest it was pretty bleak all over the Brewer minor leagues this season. Baseball America has the final batting leaderboards for 2009, and the only Brewer appearances are among the leaders in stolen bases (Eric Farris had 70) and strikeouts (Brock Kjeldgaard, Joe Koshansky and Brendan Katin all made the list).
As noted in BA's Minor League Transactions, the Brewers released 12 minor leaguers yesterday (FanShot). The most notable name on the list was 2004 third round pick Josh Wahpehpah.
Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Angel Salome all made Baseball America's list of the top 20 prospects in the Pacific Coast League. Tom Haudricourt had mentioned this previously, but that link will take you to the team's press release.
John Sickels of Minor League Ball has a look back at his top 50 pitching prospects entering 2009, including a pre-suspension Jeremy Jeffress.

The Hendies tournament continues over at Brew City Sports: Follow the link to cast your vote in the Excrement Eight.

If you like your roundups of Brewer news, but wish there was less reading involved and maybe a bit more rambling, then you may be the perfect candidate to try out View From Bernie's Chalet's new video blog.

Or, if you like Brewer related fan fiction, you may want to try out Witrado's Quest and Doug Melvin's Hunt for October.

I'm sure this is exactly what Major League Baseball had in mind for the postseason: After a long delay between rounds, baseball is back and the main topics of conversation are weather and divorce. Jon Heyman thinks the Yankees and Angels will get the game in tonight, but could have a hard time tomorrow. Diamond Leung has the scoop on each side's attorney in the McCourt fiasco.

It could be worse, though: Fans in Texas aren't getting playoff baseball, and they're also not getting their playoff ticket money back until sometime in November. (h/t 6-4-2) The money is reportedly "tied up with MLB," and may already have been used to pay off some of the cash the Rangers reportedly had to borrow to make payroll this season.

If you ever doubted the usefulness of Twitter, doubt no longer: In amidst conversation about last night's NLCS opener, Jason of IIATMS presented me with a Nickname of the Year contender: Ronnie "Staypuft" Belliard.

On this day in 1982, the Brewers scored six runs in the seventh inning en route to a 7-5 victory over the Cardinals, evening the World Series at two games apiece.

Happy birthday today to Freddy Parejo, who spent the 2009 season patrolling the outfields in Huntsville and Nashville and turns 25 today. Birthday wishes also go out to Brian Harper, who spent the 1994 season as a Brewer and turns 50.

That's all I have for you today, unless you wanted to read about the rebound of Krispy Kreme or the rising price of chicken wings. I found both of those links via C. Trent Rosecrans.

Drink up.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 13:12:48 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

This could be the end of the line for Mike Burns as a Brewer. Now that he's off the 40-man roster, Burns will be eligible for minor league free agency this offseason.

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Some things to read while getting a text from Batman.

The Brewers have started the offseason roster shuffle, outrighting Mike Burns to AAA to clear a space on the 40-man roster (FanShot). Yesterday I suggested that the move might have been made to clear a roster spot for a minor leaguer (like Adam Heether), but as Adam McCalvy notes, the Brewers will also need to make room for Rickie Weeks, Mark DiFelice and David Riske, who are currently on the 60-day DL.

It hasn't been announced publicly, but in a mailing to season ticket holders the Brewers mentioned February 20 as the day pitchers and catchers will report to Maryvale for spring training in 2010. If you're looking for a to-the-second update on the countdown, look no further than the sidebar to your right, where TheJay has installed a countdown clock. I'm not sure where I'd be without TheJay on this one: I broke the site twice yesterday trying to install one of my own.

In the meantime, Doug Melvin has 128 days to assemble a winning team and/or bemoan the perils of small market economics. Fire Doug Melvin has a flow chart to predict his decision-making process.

That chart does not, however, include an answer to this question: i94 Sports looks at the Brewers' current situation with Prince Fielder, and wonders if they should be looking to trade him.

The Championship Series round of the 2009 playoffs opens tonight but, before the first ball is thrown, we have weather issues to discuss. Tomorrow and Saturday's scheduled games in New York are both questionable due to predictions of rain, and the schedule could get messy if either or both games have to be postponed.

Speaking of things that could get messy, the Dodgers are less than 24 hours away from their first game in the NLCS, but the biggest news surrounding the team might be the separation and pending divorce of owners Frank and Jamie McCourt. This could be even messier than the situation in San Diego, as Jamie McCourt was just named CEO of the Dodgers in April.

On to brighter topics: Even with the playoffs back in action this weekend, a lot of eyes will be turned towards Arizona, where Stephen Strasburg is expected to make his professional debut Friday night. Meanwhile, the Javelinas dropped their second straight game to Surprise yesterday. You can check out today's Fall League Update for more on that game.

Certainly, Ryan Braun has had one of the better early careers in Brewer history, and one can make a case for his inclusion among the best in major league history. But was he the best player drafted in 2005? The Beltway Boys make the case for Ryan Zimmerman.

As the 2009 Rule 5 Draft approaches, Bucs Dugout has a look back at how the Pirates handled 2008 Rule 5 pick Donnie Veal, who was the subject of some "aggressive" placements on the DL and some extended minor league rehab assignments that don't seem to fit within the spirit of the rules regarding the draft.

Meanwhile, Matt LaPorta will be behind schedule in spring training in February after having surgery yesterday on his left hip and big toe. His rehab is expected to take 4-6 months.

On this day in 1982, Willie McGee homered twice as the Cardinals beat the Brewers 6-2 in Game 3 of the World Series.

I couldn't find a Brewer birthday today, so you'll have to settle for Jim Palmer, losing pitcher in the final game of the 1982 season that sent the Brewers to the postseason, who turns 64 today.

That's all I have for you today, unless you wanted to read about Ben Sheets' number getting retired.

Drink up.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 13:14:34 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

As it turns out, Jason Kendall may not be all that valuable defensively either.

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Some things to read with the hand-washing time you've saved.

Clearly, "calling a good game" is not weighted heavily in these rankings, but Driveline Mechanics ranked Jason Kendall 105th out of 114 catchers defensively in 2009, and Mike Rivera 28th. It's further proof that Kendall has outlived nearly all of his value...and somehow, I still expect Doug Melvin to find a reason to bring him back next season, and Ken Macha to play him 120 times.

Craig Counsell and Braden Looper's offseason surgeries were completed yesterday, and both were "routine," according to Dr. William Raasch, who is now off to shop for a new house with the money he's made off the Brewers this week (FanShot).

Here's some symmetry for you: Wisconsin Sports Tap has a list of the top ten Brewer moments from the 2009 season, and Miller Park Drunk has a list of ten things he won't miss about this season.

While glancing over Baseball Digest Daily's Asian MLB Awards, I noticed this completely unrelated tidbit: The Brewers, who scored the third most runs in the NL this season, got 14.3% of those runs from Ryan Braun. That's the fourth highest percentage in all of baseball.

In what might be an unprecedented event, the Brewers had two pitchers (Braden Looper and Manny Parra) among the top three in the "Good Luck Division" of The Hardball Times Awards' season finale. The two pitchers combined for 25 wins with a 5.70 ERA.

Speaking of awards, Jon Heyman left Prince Fielder off his NL MVP ballot. Moments like this are why it's so easy to blast the BBWAA.

The Arizona Fall League's Opening Day was yesterday, but it wasn't a great start for the Javelinas, who got pummeled by Surprise, 17-4. Lorenzo Cain led off with a double for Peoria in the first and scored the game's first run, but the Rafters responded with runs in the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh innings. Omar Aguilar also pitched in the game, and allowed three runs on four hits and a walk in 1.2 innings. Beyond the Box Score has the PitchF/X data on Aguilar's outing.

There's just one note for the transaction log today:

Padres: Infielder Luis Rodriguez and catcher Eliezer Alfonzo declined outright assignments to the minors and are now free agents.

Who knows if the Brewers might be interested, but one more name could be about to enter the starting pitching rumor mill: Ken Rosenthal is reporting Tim Hudson could decline his half of his mutual option with the Braves for next season. The option would pay Hudson $12 million in 2010, and it seems unlikely many teams will want to commit more than that to a guy who made just seven starts in 2009.

Every day it looks a little more likely that Ned Yost will be back in the big leagues next season. He's already being mentioned as a managerial candidate in Cleveland and Houston, and now you can add him to the list in Washington as well.

If a last place team in a terrible stadium switches over to a TV network much of their fan base doesn't get, do they make a sound? According to SportsBusiness Journal, only 20,000 households tuned in to watch an average A's game this season, the second lowest figure in all of baseball.

Some days I'm up perusing the internet before it's light, and I come back with lots of great baseball links. Some days, I just find lunch ideas. Such is the Way of the Mug.

Happy birthday today to Tommy Harper, who led the 1970 Brewers in hits, runs, doubles, home runs, RBI, stolen bases, walks, batting average, OBP and slugging, and turns 69 today.

That's all I've got for you today, but if you're looking for something else to do, you could consider Static Electricity Fun Time.

Drink up.