SB Nation - Prince Fielder

Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft. Round 1, pick 1.

Ian, yo — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 02:03:39 -0000

It's now time I take a break from my fuming anger with Franklin Gutierrez's obvious Gold Glove snub, and get this mock draft moving. Since there will only be a few of us doing this mock, it'll be more like how we think drafts will be the closer we get to the season.

Let me start this out with the number one pick....

Hanley Ramirez. SS, FLA

Now, I know some of you may think I've gone completely off my rocker for not picking the best hitter in the game of baseball as the number one pick, but there's reasoning for me doing so. As I look at shortstop for 2010, I feel...well...unimpressed. I like my players at scarce positions to be fancy dancy guys and when I look at 1B, I see guys like Justin Morneau, Prince Fielder and Kevin Youkilis and deeper value with guys like Joey Votto. When I look at the rest of the shortstops, I see Troy Tulowitzki, Derek Jeter, Ben Zobrist Jimmy Rollins and a few others and see a large drop off. An argument can be made for a few guys to be picked here but I feel pretty strongly getting a top player at a weak position.

The Great General Manager Debate: NL Central Edition

davoag — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

The trade that made me lose faith in the Pirates suckitude...

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Part of my reaction to the Aki Iwamura trade was realizing how surprisingly competent the Pirates front office has become. They picked up a cost-controlled player for a replaceable part and improved their infield defense in the process. How is that a bad thing?

The funny thing is, the Pirates have been bad for so long, and it's so easy to dismiss their hires as actually being good baseball people, I had forgotten what Pittsburgh was actually getting in Neil Huntington. Here's another post from FanGraphs about what this trade means for the Pirates executives and here's an interview with Dan Fox, their database guru. Basically, the Pirates have a guy that gets to play with computer simulations all day until he can accurately evaluate and forecast players. I can get that job how?

It also made me start thinking about all the general managers in the National League Central. Which ones was I most afraid of? Which ones were a joke? Were there any teams that were run competently from year to year?

The thing that surprised me when I did my research was not that Ed Wade is probably the weakest GM in the Central, it's that so many of them have changed in the past two seasons. Justice loves to harp on how the organizational chaos Houston has gone through is affecting the club in many ways. Still, to see that so many of Wade's peers have also changed jobs recently is refreshing.

It's also scary, especially when at least four of these guys are competent-to-really good. After the jump is a look at each GM. Feel free to share your thoughts on who worries you the most in the comments...

Chicago Cubs

GM Jim Hendry

Tenure: Since July, 2002 ( 7 1/2 seasons)

Notes: The longest tenured general manager also has the biggest payroll of any team in the division. What does he do with all that money? Waste it. As scary as the Cubs lineup and rotation can be, Hendry alone makes me feel good about the Astros chances against Chicago in the near future.

This was a man who overpaid for guys like LaTroy Hawkins and Ted Lilly (though, to be fair, Lilly was excellent). He also spent a ton of money for Alfonso Soriano to play center field, and then promptly bumped him to left. Then, he spent a ton of money to bring in notorious pot-stirrer Milton Bradley, adding to the dangerous clubhouse dynamic that Lou Piniella always brings.

Funny thing, though, 134 million can buy you a damned good team. Hendry may have made mistakes in the past, but has done a good job of at least correcting them. He admitted failure with Rich Hill, shipping him off to Baltimore. He did turn Ryan Dempster into an effective pitcher in his new role with the Cubs. Hendry also has a productive farm system, with guys like Carlos Marmol and Geovanny Soto picking up the team on the cheap.

Would Hendry be this good without all that money? Probably not. In his market, though, it's tough not to make a big splash each season and have the fans be happy. Of all the GMs, though, I'm least afraid of Hendry.

Cincinnati Reds

GM Walt Jocketty

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.

The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot.

Milwaukee Brewers

GM Doug Melvin

Tenure: Since September 2002 (7 seasons)

Notes: One of the two longest tenured GMs in the NL Central, Melvin has had an up-and-down career in Milwaukee. Yes, he did draft Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder. Yes, he did trade for CC Sabathia. But, what have the Brewers actually won? This team seems to consistenly play for second place, which isn't bad, but until they can get over the hump mentally, Melvin may not be viewed more positively.

All indications are that Melvin is a more traditional GM. The Brewers don't leap out at you as a very sabermetric-friendly team, but they do have a little bit of the Oakland A's philosophy for a small market. The Brewers under Melvin consistently make unpopular decisions with players to avoid locking them up to bad contracts that hurt the team. Instead, they'll buy out arbitration years for a player, insuring cost certainty and rewarding young guys before they may be overpaid. Exhibit one is Ryan Braun.

Certainly, the biggest deficiency with the club is starting pitching. Melvin has shown a knack for making big moves (CC), regardless of his position as a small market team. He's also done a good job of drafting by talent and not positional needs (Matt LaPorta, anyone?). The obvious plus side of this is Melvin can then trade for pitching with his talent surplus. It will be interesting to see if Melvin can keep the pipeline going for the Brewers and tinker around the edges enough to get a winner.

Pittsburgh Pirates

GM Neil Huntington

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: Here is the crux of my argument. The Pirates are without a doubt the worst-run franchise in the National League. For years, they have been incompetent, both in the draft, in trades and in fielding winning ball clubs. Who can forget Randall Simon viciously attacking that poor Bratwurst in Milwaukee? Just horrible. Still, Huntington has done a great job of reversing this trend. He correctly indentified assets that were expendible, seems to have valued his minor leaguers correctly and his only big misstep so far has been the Bay trade. The big deal with the Yankees netted the Buccos a solid starter in Ross Ohlendorff and a young outfielder in Jose Tabata (who hasn't panned out). The Bay deal saw an iffy Andy LaRoche, a reliever (Craig Hanson) and a fourth or fifth outfielder (Brandon Moss) traded for one of the best left fielders in baseball.

Of course, if the Pirates had let Bay walk after the season like the Red Sox have, they'd be roundly criticized. The organization seems to be headed in the right direction. Count me as still skeptical, though, even with present evidence to the contrary.

St. Louis Cardinals

GM John Mozeliak

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: Mozeliak took over a team that didn't have much to work with outside of a couple big money players (Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter) and a ton of farm talent. He's tinkered around the edges well and leaned heavily on his manager and pitching coach's reputations to slot in marginal guys into productive roles. Mozeliak stuck by Colby Rasmus through early slumps and made a big-ticket acquisition of Matt Holliday.

There are conflicting reports about his style, but it seems like he appreciates what the stats can tell him about the game and uses it to some degree. Yet, his philosophy seems to be grating on the older school ideas of Tony LaRussa. Combine that with his cold-blooded trade of Dave Duncan's son, Chris, and he's done quite a bit to alienate two of the most important cogs to the Cardinals machine for the past decade. Not that I'm complaining.

There are both good and bad qualities here, but I don't think we can judge Mozeliak fairly until he's out from under LaRussa's considerable shadow (the man's a genius, after all).

Houston Astros

GM Ed Wade

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: So, the thing about Ed Wade is he can't trade. I said some nice things in the past about the job he did leading up to this past season, but after reviewing his track record in Philly, I have a suggestion. Ed Wade needs to hire some smart, baseball-savvy mind to be his trade manager. Like a salary-cap manager in football, this person would handle all the ramifications of trades (scouting players, balance, contracts, etc.) and give his best recommendation to Wade. Only then could the big man sign off.

If you think I exaggerate, look at his transactions. Here's a link to Baseball-Reference's transaction page starting in 1998. Wade took over in January of that year. In his entire Philly tenure, he made two good trades: Billy Wagner and Kenny Lofton. Every other trade he made was a bloodbath. Eric Milton? He gave up Nick Punto and Carlos Silva. Scott Rolen? He got Placido Polanco and that's it. He traded Curt Schilling for nothing. He traded away a young Adam Eaton for a declining Andy Ashby. He traded two young pitchers for two relievers and Ron Gant. Who thought this was a good idea? In fact, Wade's history is chock-full of trades for relievers. It's the position he enjoys tinkering with most on the team. Unfortunately, relievers are fungible, and trading for them wastes cheap assets.

Thus, why I had the idea of a trade manager. I'm sure someone like Paul DiPodesta or Kevin Towers wouldn't mind being the Astros full-time trade scout, right? Either one would be imminently more qualified than Wade to make these kinds of decisions. And yes, I realize that Wade has made some decent trades with the Astros. Sticking to the numbers, though? That streak may not last forever.

Looking Back at Community Projections: First Basemen

KLSnow — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:00:35 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Curry - AP

Prince Fielder's 2009 numbers look even better when compared to what we expected.

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Projections:

Prince Fielder
Projected: .284/.380/.547
Actual: .299/.412/.602

Obviously, we all got significantly more than we bargained for from Fielder this season. Not only did he start all 162 games and pick every Brewer at bat at first base, he slugged over .600, a full 25 points above the most optimistic of the 13 projections, and surpassed our OBP expectations by 32 points as well.

Playing time:

Player	Projected %	Actual %	Diff
Prince Fielder	93%	100%	+7%
Brad Nelson	3.5%	0%	-3.5%
Mike Lamb	2.2%	0%	-2.2%
Mike Rivera	1.3%	0%	-1.3%

I'd say this is pretty self-explanatory. While all of us expected Fielder to play close to full time, none of us expected him to take every plate appearance by a Brewer first baseman this season. Brad Nelson was off the roster early, Mike Lamb didn't even make the team out of spring training and Mike Rivera never saw time at first. Casey McGehee was the only other Brewer to play there this season: He played four innings defensively and did not bat.

Overall:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Projected	.282	.376	.538	.927
Actual	.299	.412	.602	1.014
Difference	+.017	+.036	+.066	+.087

Taking a look at some early projections

KLSnow — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:35:51 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Can Rickie Weeks bounce back and have a strong 2010?

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Earlier this week, ACTA Sports sent me a preview of the hitter projections from 2010's Bill James Handbook. Obviously, it's still really early, but I found some of the projections interesting, so I thought I'd pass them along to you.

Let's start with your likely leadoff hitter for the 2010 Brewers:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Rickie Weeks	425	.259	.357	.449	80	48	23	5	16	56	100

It's probably worth noting that even Bill James, who tends to be relatively optimistic, doesn't project Weeks to play a full season in 2009 (he has him at 114 games). Even so, these numbers are probably a little optimistic. The .259 average is a slight drop from 2009, but the .357 OBP is actually 17 points higher. Weeks was off to a hot start slugging in 2009, posting a .517 slugging percentage, but this .449 projection would be easily the second highest of his career.

Other potential second basemen:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Felipe Lopez	565	.281	.352	.400	79	58	31	3	10	60	104
Craig Counsell	342	.246	.337	.327	45	25	15	2	3	42	51

While James has Lopez playing a full season, he projects to be less productive, losing 55 OPS points to Weeks. This line for Counsell looks fair, although the Brewers are likely in trouble if they actually need him for 342 ABs.

Follow the jump for lots more projections!

Both because he could feasibly bat #2 and because he's possibly the most interesting projection:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Alcides Escobar	504	.288	.326	.377	75	48	22	4	5	28	77

If Escobar can put up this kind of season and still play the level of defense we've come to expect from him, I'll be overjoyed. James also projects him to steal 42 bases in 54 attempts, adding roughly 18 bases to his value. The walk total may look low, but it's actually a bit optimistic: Escobar only averaged 23.3 walks per season over six years in the minors. Escobar's primary source of value will almost certainly always be his glove, but if he can put up a .700 OPS in the majors then he'll be a significantly above average contributor at short.

The other option, of course, is J.J. Hardy:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
J.J. Hardy	528	.254	.320	.422	70	68	28	2	19	50	92

This isn't as strong of a bounce back as I was expecting to see. Certainly, Hardy adds a little bit of power over Escobar, but his OBP is actually a little lower, and his base-stealing ability is completely negligible (James projects Hardy to go 1-for-1 stealing bases). These numbers are roughly the midpoint between Hardy's very good 2008 season and extremely disappointing 2009.

Moving on, I think it's pretty safe to assume Ryan Braun will be batting third and playing left field on Opening Day, unless Anthony Witrado is promoted to GM:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Ryan Braun	615	.315	.378	.593	112	119	42	6	39	53	112

Those are MVP-quality numbers if ever I've seen them. Braun projects to be an elite player again next season, and if the award doesn't go to Albert Pujols (projected to go .333/.443/.642 with 44 home runs), Braun might have to be considered the frontrunner. These numbers would set new career highs in slugging, RBI, doubles and home runs, while tying a career low in strikeouts.

And, unless something changes before spring, Prince Fielder will likely be hitting behind Braun:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Prince Fielder	601	.286	.393	.574	103	124	37	2	44	96	135

With these numbers, Fielder would still be one of the National League's premier hitters, but his production would actually decline a bit from 2009's numbers in all three slash stats, RBI, home runs and walks. Fielder won't turn 26 until May, so it seems strange to project him to decline, even slightly. With that said, he'll still be one of the NL's elite hitters.

The way things stack up at present, the leading candidate to bat fifth and play third base is likely Casey McGehee:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Casey McGehee	492	.272	.328	.429	63	76	30	1	15	41	86

Like many of us, James expects McGehee to come back down to Earth a little, but these projections still have him as a solid-to-slightly above average third baseman. All three slash lines are significant steps down from the .301/.360/.499 numbers he put up in 2009.

The other option, of course, is some guy the Brewers have on the end of the bench:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mat Gamel	455	.277	.354	.464	65	73	28	3	17	53	142

These projections, especially the OBP, seem a little high, but Gamel projects to outperform McGehee in nearly every way en route to a .818 OPS. This is yet another piece of evidence to be used in the argument that the Brewers should sell high on McGehee to make room for Gamel in the lineup.

(I know at least a few of you would probably like to see a projection for Adam Heether here, but he doesn't appear in James' projections. Sorry.)

Until told otherwise, I'm going to continue to assume Mike Cameron will return to play center field and bat sixth:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mike Cameron	561	.237	,328	.428	79	74	32	3	23	71	171

These numbers aren't the best argument for opening the checkbook to keep him around. Clearly, James is expecting age to catch up with Cameron, who would lose 13 points in average, 14 in OBP, 24 in slugging, and strike out over 170 times for just the second time in his 16 year career. These numbers still aren't terrible, and combined with good defense Cameron is still likely an above average center fielder. But, with that said, paying anything like his $10 million 2009 salary for performance at this level is a questionable decision.

Dropping all the way to the seventh spot in the lineup in right field, here's Corey Hart:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Corey Hart	533	.272	.332	.467	78	76	37	5	19	43	110

This would actually be a pretty nice bounce-back season for Hart, with his highest batting average, slugging percentage and run total since 2007. Entering his age 28 season, it's possible Hart will never be the player we all thought he might be after hitting .295/.353/.539 three years ago, but these numbers would be acceptable for a corner outfielder.

While we're on the subject, here are the projections for some other outfielders on the Brewer roster:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Frank Catalanotto	110	.273	.360	.418	14	12	8	1	2	10	14
Jody Gerut	162	.259	.326	.420	23	20	9	1	5	14	25

I'm not sure either of these stat lines suggest either of these guys should play everyday, but they project to be solid fourth and fifth outfielders next season, and if it won't cost too much to do so, I'd be fine with bringing both back. Thankfully, there's no projection for Corey Patterson.

I'm preparing myself for disappointment by operating under the assumption that Jason Kendall will continue to catch and tie up the eighth spot in the batting order again next season.

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Jason Kendall	409	.254	.338	.320	43	35	19	1	2	37	44

I'm not sure what James is smoking here, because even this lackluster projection seems a little too high. In two seasons as a Brewer, Kendall has hit ..244/.329/.315, and I'm not sure he can even repeat that at age 36, much less improve upon all three numbers. Kendall is likely getting the benefit of the doubt based on an extensive major league career, but recent evidence would suggest he's sliding downhill, not mounting a comeback. I'm not sure where one finds the data to support even a small offensive resurgence from a weak-hitting 36 year old catcher.

Interestingly enough, James' projections don't have Mike Rivera, but they do have Angel Salome:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Angel Salome	240	.296	.345	.442	30	39	15	1	6	18	45

This is much higher than I would have projected Salome, who I think might be the third best of the three internal options to replace Kendall next season (Sadly, Jonathan Lucroy is also not projected). With that said, Salome is projected to out-OPS Kendall by 129 points. Remember what it was like when the Brewers had a catcher that wasn't an offensive black hole? Me either. I'd love to see what that's like.

So, what do you think of these projections?

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:03:58 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Dear front office: Please don't acquire Gary Matthews Jr., unless the Angels are willing to eat his salary AND take on Jeff Suppan's. Sincerely, Everyone

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Some things to read while getting a new backpack.

So apparently Gary Matthews Jr. wants out of Anaheim, and some Brewer fans (including Al) think he could be a good fit in center field next season, if the Angels agree to pay most of his salary. Meanwhile, Angels management is somewhere hoping and praying that there's one general manager left in baseball who thinks Matthews can be a productive major leaguer next season. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs notes that Matthews has been worth -$5.3 million in salary over the last three seasons. And while he was a pretty good defender at one point, TotalZone ranked him as the fourth worst defender in all of baseball last season. And he's 35 years old. On the scale of center fielders, Matthews is much closer to Corey Patterson than Mike Cameron.

The Milwaukee chapter of the BBWAA has unveiled their postseason awards, with Prince Fielder and Yovani Gallardo surprising no one by taking home Team MVP and Pitcher of the Year honors, respectively. Trevor Hoffman was named top newcomer, Todd Coffey was named Unsung Hero and Craig Counsell won the "Good Guy" award, which may be renamed for him when he retires. Mike Cameron also received two community service awards: one from the team and one from the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum. Congratulations to all of them.

Speaking of Mike Cameron, he's one of two Brewers among the top 6 free agents by WAR. Cameron ranks sixth with 4.3 WAR, a couple spots down from Felipe Lopez, who is fourth with 4.6.

Josh Butler has a new blog post from the AFL. Today's topics include night games, strep throat and his repertoire. Butler has been home for a few days with strep but still expects to make his scheduled start today.

Unless another package of stuff shows up on my doorstep, today is your last chance to enter the Bring Back Seth McClung contest. As of this writing, 401 people have signed up. I'll draw seven winners from the group at 5 pm today.

There had previously been speculation that Doug Melvin could consider leaving the Brewers to become president of the Blue Jays. You can lay that rumor to rest: Interim President Paul Beeston has been given the full time job. Elsewhere around baseball:

Astros: Signed former Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills to be their new manager.
Rays: Signed Gabe Kapler to a one year deal for slightly more than $1 million.

As you may have heard, Mark McGwire is coming out of hiding to return to the Cardinals as hitting coach. Lookout Landing speculates on how his first meeting with Skip Schumaker might go.

Speaking of Lookout Landing, they spent the evening last night watching a winter league game in Venezuela, and have some observations on the experience.

Side note: Lookout Landing also has a link to free live broadcasts of VWL games, but when I clicked on it the first thing I got was a box asking for permission to connect to my Facebook account. Don't fall for it.

Still looking for a replacement for Jason Kendall? MLB Trade Rumors has a list of catchers that may be available via trade. Most of them aren't too exciting, but it's possible all of them would be better than Kendall next season.

So this is how the other half lives: As part of the McCourt divorce, Jamie McCourt has submitted a list of her monthly living expenses, which includes over $30,000 (per month) for clothing and accessories, over $1000 for wine, and $533 per month for a birthday party. Apparently when you're that wealthy, you get a birthday every month. Who knew?

Speaking of birthdays, happy birthday to:

Braden Looper, who turns 35.
Lenny Harris who spent 2002 as a Brewer and turns 45.
Mark Knudson, who appeared in 106 games as a Brewer in the late 80's and early 90's, and turns 49.
And Bob Melvin, who served as Phil Garner's bench coach and turns 48.

Staying on the subject of birthdays, Wezen-ball has compiled a calendar of Top Birthday WARs. So if you've ever wanted to know the best player born on your birthday, there you go. Mine is Joe Judge, who racked up 43.7 WAR playing first base for the Washington Senators from 1915 to 1932.

That's all I have for you today, unless you're someone in need of a list of unacceptable Halloween candy.

Drink up.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 13:43:48 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

Jason Bourgeois, seen here celebrating his solo home run on Aug. 28, is expected to compete for a roster spot in Houston.

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Some things to read while having a new reason to hate Ft. Wayne.

The Brewers cleared a spot on their 40-man roster yesterday, but not in the way they had planned: The Astros claimed Jason Bourgeois off waivers when the Brewers tried to outright him to AAA (FanShot). Bourgeois hit .189/.250/.270 in 40 plate appearances as a Brewer, and .316/.354/.410 with 36 steals in 454 PAs for Nashville. Astros GM Ed Wade said he liked Bourgeois' versatility and expects him to compete for a spot in the outfield next spring.

With the World Series nearly ready to open, the Brewers are getting closer to decision time on Felipe Lopez. Baseball Reflections rated him as the top potential free agent second baseman this offseason.

It also wouldn't surprise me to discover they're working on a deal involving J.J. Hardy. Baseball Intellect took a look at Hardy's mechanics in an attempt to identify issues that came up last season, but found no notable changes. He expects Hardy to have a big bounce back season with a fresh start next spring.

We spent most of yesterday discussing Trevor Hoffman in the comments of yesterday's Mug. Today, we have more on Hoffman, as Miller Park Drunk has a post straddling the fence on the issue.

Up for more MVP talk? Quevedo at the Buffet has Prince Fielder second and Ryan Braun ninth on their MVP ballot.

In the minors and winter leagues:

Project Prospect ranked Brett Lawrie as the third best second base prospect in all of baseball. That's pretty high praise for a guy who's only spent a few weeks above Low-A.
Not only did Adam Heether hit in the minors this season, he's also spending the offseason in Venezuela showing off his grit: Plunk Everyone notes that Heether is tied for the VWL lead with 5 HBP.
The AFL's Peoria Javelinas picked up a 2-1 victory last night, moving into a tie for first place in the Western Division, with 20 games to play. You can read more about last night's game in today's Fall/Winter League Update.

While some Brewer farmhands spend the offseason in Arizona and across Latin America sharpening their skills, three other Brewers are in a variety of other places:

Rick Peterson was at the MLB Network Studios in New Jersey yesterday doing some taping for 3P Sports, his side venture. I guess I assumed some of that work would get back-burnered once Peterson was officially a Brewer.
Trevor Hoffman attended a U2 concert at the Rose Bowl with Rob Dibble.
Ryan Braun continues to work on his new restaurant. Adam McCalvy has more details on the plans for the Lake Geneva launch (scheduled for April), and the possibility of rapid expansion into Madison and/or Milwaukee. Meanwhile, Miller Park Drunk is not high on the idea.

I'm not quite ready to start looking ahead to Christmas yet but, if you are, then you may be interested in hearing more about the Brewer Holiday Cards that will be released on Friday. They'll be released as part of an event to "launch" Brewer Charities' presence on Twitter.

Just a quick reminder, in case you missed it yesterday: Brew Crew Ball is looking to add a weekend editor. Here are the details on what we're looking for. I'm hoping to wrap up the search within the next few days, so if you're interested, be sure to let me know.

Just one transaction note to pass along today:

Pirates: Pitcher Tyler Yates rejected an outright assignment to the minors and will become a free agent.

I've already announced my World Series allegiance: I'll be casually rooting for the Phillies if I happen to be in a place where the game's on, but I also doubt I'll stay up late enough to catch the end of most of the games. Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks also makes a half-hearted argument for supporting the Phillies. Amazin' Avenue will be cheering for the team that doesn't have Shane Victorino, and MetsGrrl reminds us that we're not legally obligated to pick a side. We'll have more on the topic later today.

Meanwhile, an unexpected prospect is making himself the early story of the Arizona Fall League. Grant Desme, a center fielder in the A's organization who just finished his first full professional season and has never played above High-A, has eight home runs in his first ten games, and is on pace to break the AFL record set by Angels prospect Brandon Wood in 2005. Desme has been the AFL's Player of the Week in each of the league's first two weeks.

Once the AFL is over, are you ready for the AWL? This is the first I'd heard of it, but apparently the Arizona Winter League is a showcase for independent players looking to latch on with a team before spring training. Players will report to their teams on January 24. In perhaps the most confusing part, the league has Arizona in its name but has four teams in a Canadian division. Baseball in Canada in January doesn't strike me as a good idea.

Happy birthday to two long time Brewers born on the same day: 1982 AL Cy Young Award winner Pete Vuckovich and four time 12-game winner Bill Travers. Both turn 57 today.

Oh, and today is a Woot-off day.

Drink up.

BBA Ballot: 2009 NL MVP

Slyde — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 20:19:00 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Are you there, Albert? It's me, God.

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I know every writer has a different reason for voting for a player for the MVP award. Some do the biggest RBI guy on the best team. Others pick the best story for a good player. While others still define some arbitrary level of value to a "sparkplug" player and pick that player for the award. My system is pretty much what you would expect - pick the player that provided the most wins for his team. That's why my ballot shouldn't be very surprising:

1. Albert Pujols - Cardinals

How good was Pujols this year? He takes a -12.4 runs hit for playing the easiest defensive position on the field, and he still outpaces everyone in the league in WAR. His numbers were a little better last season, when he won his 2nd MVP award, but this year is probably one of his top 3 performances of his career. That's saying something.

2. Tim Lincecum - Giants

If it weren't for Pujols, Lincecum could win both the MVP and Cy Young. I mean, not in the real world because his team didn't go to the playoffs, but in the fake world that we've created here on the internet it could happen.

3. Chase Utley - Phillies

Utley might be my favorite player on an opposing team. He might also be the best all-around 2B since Joe Morgan.

4. Hanley Ramirez - Marlins

Dude carried his team all year. I wonder if the Red Sox regret trading him. On the one hand, they did get Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. On the other hand, they lost Hanley Ramirez!

5. Ryan Zimmerman - Nationals

An outstanding defensive 3B who can also hit? But...but...he plays for a really bad team, so how valuable can he be?

6. Prince Fielder - Brewers

Bonus points for knocking all of his teammates down with his fat ass at home plate after the game winning home run toward the end of the season.

7. Troy Tulowitzki - Rockies

He's not actually next in WAR, but I gave him bonus points because defensive metrics fluctuate so much from year to year and I don't trust their accuracy enough on a single season.

8. Javier Vazquez - Braves

Probably the 2nd best pitcher in the NL this season.

9. Adrian Gonzalez - Padres

He hit 40 HR while playing half his games in Petco. Nice.

10. Joey Votto - Reds

I just want Joey to get a vote so he'll like me.

How'd I do?

Poll

Who is the 2009 NL MVP?

Tim Lincecum

17 votes

Albert Pujols

194 votes

Hanley Ramirez

7 votes

Chase Utley

12 votes

Ryan Zimmerman

4 votes

Other

14 votes

248 votes | Poll has closed

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:46:19 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Keith Law says the Brewers spent too much on Trevor Hoffman.

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Some things to read while the tables are turned.

View From Bernie's Chalet has the transcript of a recent chat with Keith Law over at ESPN where he touched on several Brewer-related topics, but the most notable was probably Trevor Hoffman. He thinks the Brewers made a mistake bringing Hoffman back at the price they're paying, and that it will handicap their efforts to improve the team elsewhere.

Admittedly, $8 million is a lot to pay a reliever, but it's possible there's a perception benefit from having an elite closer. When the Brewers announced the Hoffman signing, Doug Melvin suggested free agent pitchers may be more likely to sign with a club with an established closer. I have no idea if it's true, but I suppose it's possible. And if Hoffman pitches a full, effective season as a Brewer and notches his 600th save, it's possible he'll pay for himself in publicity and marketing.

Elsewhere on the pitching front, rumors continue to swirl around the possibility that the Brewers could have interest in Mark Mulder. Mulder probably can't be depended upon for significant innings, but bringing a pitcher of his caliber into the fold on a cheap deal to see what he can do is almost always a good idea.

Mulder, of course, pitched under Rick Peterson in Oakland. Mets Merized recently conducted an interview with Peterson, and has audio clips of some of Peterson's thoughts on developing prospects and pitch counts. (h/t Rob Neyer)

Although unlikely, it's still possible Peterson could spend 2010 helping Ben Sheets return to form. Sheets, who had his high school number retired this weekend, is throwing off flat ground and expects to pitch in the majors next season. Jorge Says No! wonders what he'll get on the open market.

If Jeff Suppan was on the market this offseason, he likely wouldn't command much at all. Suppan was the winner of Brew City Sports' Hendy Award, which will look great on his mantle next to a photocopy of the $12.5 million paycheck he'll take home next season.

Hopefully this will be the only career parallel between Suppan and Ryan Braun: Braun is opening a restaurant in Lake Geneva. Braun is also giving away autographed baseballs to the first 100 fans to spend at least $150 on Remetee clothing at Solis in Las Vegas. If you stop by in January, there might still be some left.

We won't know the actual results until sometime after the World Series, but Baseball Digest Daily had Prince Fielder third in their balloting for NL MVP, and Braun fifth.

The JS has a note on Jonathan Lucroy's early performance in the AFL, which has been pretty impressive. He's only racked up 19 at bats, though, so it's probably a little early to get too excited. Tom H. also mentions "poor starts" from both Lorenzo Cain and Taylor Green. Both are hitting under .250 but have OBPs of .364 and .400, respectively (in 50 combined ABs). We have more on all three prospects and the rest of the Brewer winter leaguers in today's Fall/Winter League Update.

Around baseball:

Cubs: Removed utilityman Bobby Scales from their 40-man roster.
Indians: Hired Manny Acta as their new manager.
Mets: Removed catcher Robinson Cancel, shortstops Wilson Valdez and Argenis Reyes and pitcher Carlos Muniz from their 40-man roster.
Padres: Are expected to name former Red Sox Assistant GM Jed Hoyer as their new GM.

After two searches and interviews involving over a dozen candidates, the Indians and Astros both settled on Acta as the best candidate to manage their teams next season. The Indians, however, were willing to offer a three-year deal with an option for a fourth, and the Astros were only willing to offer two years. Houston is reportedly considering Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills and former Astros and Brewers manager Phil Garner.

So, the World Series matchup is set. I guess I'll be rooting for the Phillies out of sheer anti-Yankee bias and some form of vague NL pride. Rob Neyer notes that it'd be nice if the games started earlier, so they won't drag on past midnight, but that seems unlikely. Meanwhile, the new Yankee Stadium didn't even make it through its first season without some structural concerns: cracks in pedestrian ramps have already started to appear. The concrete was poured by a local firm that had previously been banned from doing city work because of suspected ties to organized crime.

The ALCS wasn't actually decided until late last night, but apparently the result was already known, as MLB.com started selling AL Champion Yankees gear well before the final out was recorded. This has drawn a lot of backlash but maybe we're looking at it the wrong way: Maybe MLB should start selling World Series gear for every team in Spring Training.

The Florida Winter Baseball League opens play this week with teams in four cities, composed mainly of low-level minor leaguers. I haven't checked the rosters for Brewers yet, but a successful, competitive winter league based in Florida could be a huge development for American minor leaguers who want to play winter ball but either don't speak Spanish or simply don't want to spend the winter in Latin America.

If you'd like to read more about life in the Arizona Fall League but your attention span is really short, then you're the perfect candidate to follow Scottsdale Scorpions Clubhouse Manager Chad Chiffin on Twitter.

While some minor leaguers head off to winter ball, one major leaguer will spend the offseason in Washington: Pirates pitcher Ross Ohlendorf is spending the offseason on an internship with the Department of Agriculture.

Last week I mentioned the continuing debate on John Lannan, who has posted effective ERAs for two seasons without many of the peripheral stats one would expect from a successful pitcher. Nick Steiner of The Hardball Times has Part 2 of his look at Lannan, looking primarily at pitch sequencing. Steiner concludes that luck is the most likely option.

I'm going to be late for Gorman's vet appointment if I don't wrap this up asap, so here's what I have left:

Minor leaguer Shawn Haviland on the importance of throwing two of the first three pitches for strikes.
Recondite Baseball on hitters who hit .300 but had short careers anyway.

Happy birthday today to Rafael Novoa, who pitched 56 innings for the 1993 Brewers and turns 42 today, and to Mark Sweeney, who appeared in 119 games for the 2000-2001 Brewers and turns 40.

Also, a posthumous happy birthday to Gus Polidor, who would have turned 48 today.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you want to see a Jose Valentin autograph or win one from Miguel Tejada.

And if you'd like to win something autographed by Seth McClung, don't forget to enter the Bring Back Seth McClung contest.

Drink up.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:04:13 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Ryan Braun celebrates with Prince Fielder after Braun hit a two-run home run against the Nationals in July.

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Some things to read while not crossing the line.

Ryan Braun was a unanimous pick for The Sporting News' Postseason NL All Star Team (FanShot). Prince Fielder was left off the team to make room for some guy named Pujols.

As it turns out, though, it's not all good news for Braun. As noted in this comment in yesterday's Mug, Braun missed the cutoff for becoming arbitration eligible as a Super 2 player by just 12 days. If Braun had qualified, the Brewers would have owed him an additional $6 million over the course of his contract.

There's not much else for Brewer news today, so let's jump straight into the minor league notes:

Project Prospect has a look at four major Top 100 prospect lists issued before the season, the differences between them and what they say about their respective publications. Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar and Jeremy Jeffress each appeared on all four lists. Angel Salome appeared on three.
Behind their pay-wall, Baseball-Intellect has some video and a scouting report from a Jake Odorizzi game in Helena in July. I haven't seen it myself, but if you're a subscriber (or have some time to kill and $3 to burn), then it might be worth a look.

Clearly, the Brewers have some holes that need patching this offseason. Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks thinks they could fix one of them by cloning Bob Uecker.

In the meantime, since the Brewers have yet to perfect the cloning technology, they're looking to hire a retail merchandising assistant.

Bobby Valentine sat down with reporters yesterday after interviewing for the managerial vacancy in Cleveland, and told reporters he doesn't know anything about the team, the AL Central or the American League. As one might imagine, that's raised a few red flags...but I also think Ken Macha might have said something similar if asked the same question after his interview in Milwaukee last year.

Speaking of people whose stock might be falling, Nationals Enquirer has a look at some of the red flags surrounding likely #1 overall pick Bryce Harper. If the Nats don't select Harper first overall, it's possible his salary demands and other factors could lead to him falling precipitously in the draft, and he could be a candidate for the Brewers. This topic also came up in yesterday's Mug comments, where Jeff made a great point:

One problem with Bryce is that he’s really young. By opting for community college, he’s getting himself into the draft a year earlier than high-school picks.

That’s good for him in the long run, but remember that the team that drafts him only cares about his first six years in the bigs.

Now, maybe Harper will be like A-Rod, show up and mash, but if he forces his way to the big leagues by age 19, he’s a FA at 25, with his prime ahead of him. "The potential to be one of the greatest players of all time" is only relevant if you’re buying some of his seasons of greatness.

The bloom is off the rose in San Diego, where Gaslamp Ball is now refusing to refer to Anthony Gwynn Jr. as "Tony" until he finishes a full season batting .300. I wouldn't have mentioned it, but it's a slow news day.

Since today's Mug is short, you'll probably have some time to kill once you're done reading it, and if you do, I highly recommend this Sporcle quiz asking for each team's career leaders in hits, home runs, wins and saves. I got 57.

Happy birthday today to David Riske, who turns 33.

Drink up.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 13:40:04 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

I'm hoping we'll have a picture of Rick Peterson without a Mets hat soon.

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Some things to read while earning your cat-holding privileges.

The Brewers made Rick Peterson's hiring official yesterday, and he immediately turned his sights to Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra.

Peterson also tweeted about his new gig, and was welcomed into the fold by Seth McClung (more on McClung later today). Miller Park Drunk also welcomed Peterson, and started him off with a cheat sheet on Brewer pitchers.

Now, perhaps the Brewers will get started on the task of acquiring some pitchers for Peterson to coach. Dave Cameron of USS Mariner has the Brewers trading J.J. Hardy to the M's for Brandon Morrow, and Matthew Pouliot of Circling the Bases has a hypothetical trade sending Prince Fielder to the Red Sox for Jacoby Ellsbury and Michael Bowden. Meanwhile, over in Speculationville, Roguejim wonders if J.J. Hardy might be a fit for the Pirates.

Could Jody Gerut end up as a bargaining chip in a trade? Amazin' Avenue lists him as a player who may be undervalued this winter due to a low BABIP in 2009. Gerut posted a .230/.279/.376 line last season, but hit a much more respectable .272/.341/.447 in August and September.

Wherever pitching help might come from, there doesn't appear to be much of it on the horizon in the minors. Baseball America has their final minor league pitching leaderboards up, and the only Brewer mentioned (Evan Frederickson) is among the leaders in a category you don't want to lead (walks allowed). Frederickson, a sandwich pick in the 2008 draft, walked 82 batters in 97.1 innings for Wisconsin this season, and has posted a 5.22 ERA in the minors.

Perhaps Josh Butler will be the exception, though: After playing all over the minors and in the majors this season, Butler is blogging from the AFL (FanShot) His first post covers his wild season, AFL teammates, food and weather.

We've covered the list of reasons why Felipe Lopez should be offered arbitration and the opportunity to return, but Miller Park Drunk has the counterpoint: the list of reasons why Lopez doesn't fit into the Brewers' plans and will almost certainly not be back.

Around baseball:

Braves: Pitchers Buddy Carlyle, Jorge Campillo and Vladimir Nunez have been removed from the 40-man roster and will become free agents. (h/t Rowland's Office)
Mets: Released reliever Ken Takahashi.
Pirates: Reliever Chris Bootcheck rejected an outright assignment and is now a free agent.

Because of the arbitrary nature of the cutoff line for Super 2 players, there's good news for the Diamondbacks and bad news for the Giants today. Slugger Mark Reynolds fell three days short of the service time required to be a Super 2, will not be arbitration eligible and will remain under team control for four more seasons. Tim Lincecum, on the other hand, was over the cutoff by about a week and will be arbitration eligible this offseason.

Three managerial vacancies remain, but at least one team has eliminated Ned Yost from contention: The Indians are believed to be conducting second interviews with four candidates, but Yost is not one of them. Manny Acta is the only finalist for the Indians' job that is also a candidate for the Astros' job.

Over the last few seasons, baseball has shifted heavily toward emphasizing young players and prospects, but here's a reminder on the importance of not looking too far ahead: Lookout Landing has a list of 44 players who appeared for the Mariners in 2008. Less than two full years later, only ten of them are still with the organization. Things can change pretty fast.

Livan Hernandez spent the end of the 2009 season with the Nationals, and despite the fact that he's long past the prime of his career, he'll likely be looking for work again this offseason, because he needs the paycheck. Hernandez reportedly has serious financial issues that could lead to the foreclosure of his home in Miami.

Unfortunately, despite the fact that the postseason has had some pretty exciting games and interesting storylines, the top story once again is terrible umpiring, and a call Big League Stew is calling "the worst call of all time." I keep hoping that maybe, someday, Major League Baseball will be shamed into action on this issue, and do something to either correct inept umpires or put effective umpires in their place. It's likely a pipe dream.

I've spent a fair amount of time lately discussing the Arizona Fall League, partly because there's not much baseball being played lately but also because I find it fascinating. If you're having a hard time getting into it, maybe you should check out Geoff Young's look back at the 2001 AFL, which featured a bunch of future productive major leaguers...and Bill Hall.

Speaking of prospects and development, Derrick Goold has a nice conversation starter about age as it relates to prospects, and when one becomes too old to be considered one (h/t BBTF). In last year's Community Prospect Rankings, we ranked a couple of older players (Brad Nelson and Tim Dillard), and I'm guessing Adam Heether might sneak into this year's list as well.

Finally, this link isn't really baseball related, but I'm dropping it in today because I think it's important, and if you or someone you know coaches youth or high school sports I hope you'll read it: Driveline Mechanics has a look at overtraining in high school sports and its consequences.

Happy birthday today to Gabe Gross, who posted a .797 OPS over 2+ seasons as a Brewer and turns 30 today, and to Franklin Stubbs, who was virtually worthless as a Brewer and turns 49.

Drink up.