SB Nation - Trot Nixon

Fire Everyone! - Derek Shelton

Ryan — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 04:56:11 -0000

Derek Shelton and Kenny Lofton

This is the second installment in a 12-part series.

Derek Shelton became the Indians hitting coach in June 2005, replacing Eddie Murray. At the time, the Indians ranked towards the bottom of the league in hitting, and manager Eric Wedge thought it was time for a change:

"It's not just about right now, it's just about what we feel is best for our ballclub today, the future and long term," said manager Eric Wedge, who told Murray he was fired. "From an offensive standpoint, I feel we can do better. But it's not just about Eddie Murray. I just felt that we needed to make a change and I felt this was best for our ballclub."

Specifically, it was thought that Murray's coaching style was what caused his dismissal. Murray did not take the initiative in giving hitting advice, leaving it up the player to come to him. If Murray had had a more aggressive style of coaching, the move might not have been made even with a struggling offense, for the Indians value a satisfactory process almost as much as satisfactory results.

So, in looking at whether Derek Shelton should keep his job after the season, I have to either completely leave out of my analysis Shelton's coaching style, or to make assumptions based on snippets of articles or interviews. And all of this is moot if Eric Wedge isn't here next year, for the hitting coach comes under the manager's purview. So, for the purposes of this article, I'll assume that the Indians are satisfied with his coaching demeanor and style, and that Eric Wedge will have the opportunity to make a decision on Shelton this winter. That leaves me mainly with statistical analysis and subjective reasoning, though I have several angles in mind in which to look at the numbers.

1. Do established major-leaguer hitters improve once they arrive in Cleveland? And, did established major-league hitters improve once Shelton joined the team?

Let's tackle the performance of the 2005 team first. Murray was fired the first week of June, so let's see if there was any measurable change among the everyday players from June onwards:

OPS+	April	May	Murray	June	July	August	September	Shelton	Better
Victor Martinez	68	61	64.5	134	142	184	150	152.5	Shelton
Ben Broussard	95	138	116.5	66	72	130	118	96.5	Murray
Ron Belliard	138	101	119.5	81	86	97	138	100.5	Murray
Jhonny Peralta	97	155	126	76	118	108	96	99.5	Murray
Aaron Boone	33	22	27.5	119	107	119	74	104.75	Shelton
Coco Crisp	78	165	121.5	116	93	114	144	116.75	Murray
Grady Sizemore	64	109	86.5	184	76	132	142	133.5	Shelton
Casey Blake	64	83	73.5	109	83	141	97	107.5	Shelton
Travis Hafner	126	118	122	199	232	158	182	192.75	Shelton
Jose Hernandez	59	20	39.5	112	118	12	47	72.25	Shelton

Of the 10 players who got 200 or more at-bats, six of them improved under Shelton. Among those were very significant improvements, namely Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez. The overall team offense improved as well:

OPS+

April

May

Murray

June

July

August

September

Shelton

Better

Team

100

113

103

126

117

Shelton

So it looks like Shelton was an improvement over Murray. What about Shelton versus other hitting coaches? Here's a list of established major-leaguers the Indians brought in from 2006 through this year, their previous offensive numbers, and what they did in an Indians uniform (OPS+ with the Indians in bold):

OPS+	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	Trend
Jason Michaels	98	111	85	87	40	102	Down
Trot Nixon	123	109	96	78	54	x	Down
David Dellucci	96	126	123	76	85	37	Down
Jamey Carroll	92	68	94	56	85	88	Up
Mark DeRosa	59	97	108	102	118	105	Even
Josh Barfield	x	x	96	54	x	x	Way Down

Aside from Jamey Carroll, there's no success story to point to. Most of the players on this list were older role players coming into their stints with the Indians, so there probably wasn't much upside for Shelton to tap. However, Josh Barfield was a big miss for Shelton, as he went from a decent starter with Padres to on the cusp of bombing out of the majors altogether on Shelton's watch. The others don't bother me as much; Jason Michaels has gone back to being a platoon player, and Dellucci and Nixon were winding down their careers.

2. Do players improve or regress during their years with Shelton?

Here's a list of everyday players who have spent at least two full seasons with the Indians during the Shelton era:

OPS+	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	Trend
Victor Martinez	130	121	127	85	115	Down
Ben Broussard	105	109	125	x	x	Up
Jhonny Peralta	137	83	100	108	91	Down
Aaron Boone	82	77	x	x	x	Down
Grady Sizemore	123	132	122	128	103	Even
Casey Blake	99	114	101	110	x	Up
Travis Hafner	168	179	118	65	121	Down
Jason Michaels	x	85	87	40	x	Down
Ryan Garko	x	113	117	97	113	Even
Shin-Soo Choo	x	118	x	146	123	Up
Franklin Gutierrez	x	67	103	80	x	Down
Kelly Shoppach	x	x	101	123	91	Down
Asdrubal Cabrera	x	x	101	88	106	Up

Some of these trends can be chalked up to forces beyond a coach's reach, like Travis Hafner's injuries. The two that stick out to me are Jhonny Peralta (on the bad side) and Shin-Soo Choo (on the good side). Peralta's 2005 season (at age 23) seemed like the beginning of a fantastic career, but since then he hasn't come close to that production. Conversely, Choo started out his major-league career struggling at the plate, but since the second half of last year has become one of the better corner outfielders in the American League. Franklin Gutierrez and Casey Blake have both had good seasons since leaving the Indians, but nothing markedly better than some of the years they had under Shelton.

3. How has the Indians offense fared versus the rest of the American League?

AL Ranks	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Batting Average	5	4	7	12	6
On-Base Percentage	3	3	5	7	5
Slugging Percentage	3	4	5	7	8
Runs	4	2	6	6	6

Even with some upheaval in the last couple years, the Indians have remained a league-average offense. Considering that Progressive Field has played as a neutral park during the last couple years, that's a decent showing. It certainly wasn't the offense that drove the Indians out of contention this season.

Final Analysis

Each season since Derek Shelton arrived in Cleveland, the Indians have finished at least in the top half in the league in runs. During his first two seasons, the Indians offense was among the best in baseball. Although he's had a couple misses (Josh Barfield, Jhonny Peralta), the rest of his record stacks up well, especially given the circumstances in 2008 and 2009. If Wedge isn't fired, he should be brought back. And even if there is a new manager, Shelton should be recommended to remain in his position.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 13:59:41 -0000

Some things to read while making a list of things to do before having a baby.

Ryan Braun's intercostal muscle continues to be the big story today. Braun left yesterday's game after two at bats (and zero swings) due to stiffness in his side. The team is reportedly considering sending him to the doctor. At this point, I share a question with Chuckie Hacks: Why wasn't a doctor Braun's first stop when he got back to Arizona? Meanwhile, The Disabled List Informer still thinks Braun has been misdiagnosed and it could be a spinal issue.

The team made a bunch of roster moves yesterday, releasing Trot Nixon, optioning Mat Gamel and Angel Salome to Nashville, outrighting Wes Littleton to the minors and sending Jason Bourgeois and Chris Narveson to minor league camp. The Journal Sentinel has a bigger story on Nixon's release, which was especially hard on Ken Macha, who managed Nixon for four seasons in the minors (noted in this FanShot).

So the Brewers were briefly rumored to be interested in Jake Peavy, then the rumor was refuted and everyone went on with their lives. That's life in a big league front office, right? Maybe not. Doug Melvin called the rumor "disrputive" to 2009 preparations. I find it hard to believe that major league general managers aren't used to hearing unfounded rumors about players. That's the kind of thing that happens every day and if it's actually bothering Melvin while he's trying to work, he's not the GM we think he is.

The Peavy rumor was just part of Tom Haudricourt's bad day. First, he called out a commenter for posting a quote about Peavy, then he called covering Wednesday's game, a job most of us would take in a heartbeat, an exercise in tedium. Let me just go ahead and throw this out there: If Tom H. decides he doesn't want to cover baseball anymore, I'll gladly take over for him.

Visual evidence from yesterday's exercise in tedium:

A disembodied arm stopped by to congratulate Casey McGehee on his fifth home run of the spring.
Corey Hart attempted a sliding catch in foul territory.
According to the caption, Prince Fielder celebrated his home run with Prince Fielder, but one of those Princes weighs about 100 lbs more than the other one.

There will be lots of visual evidence of the final game of the Brewers' opening series with the Giants. Thursday night's game will be the first regular season game broadcast in MLB Network history.

How long is your attention span? Depending on how much time you have, Jeff Sackmann has five+ questions regarding the 2009 Brewers, or Dayn Perry has one sentence on how they could win the World Series.

If you read both and still have more time on your hands, head over to The Book Blog and help project playing time for Brewers in 2009. I weighed in this morning and was the first vote.

Two prospect notes today:

Minor League Notebook compared Alcides Escobar and Rangers prospect Elvis Andrus, and gives Escobar the advantage.
Brett Lawrie has started a blog, so stop by and say hi. (h/t Rattler Radio)

Meanwhile, FanGraphs ranked the Brewers sixth in their organizational rankings, one spot ahead of the Cubs, first in the NL Central and ahead of all but several major market teams.

There's only one prediction/projection to cover today: The Wheelhouse picked the Brewers to finish fourth in the Central.

We've been debating/complaining about Jeff Suppan's projected Opening Day start for several days now, so I guess it's about time someone came along to play the other side: Two Fisted Slopper suggests the decision could pay off with improved matchups in other games.

Also, Miller Park Drunk is excited about Bison Blonde, the new beer at Friday's Front Row designed specifically for eating with buffalo wings. If only the Brewers had a deal like this one: a place named Claim Jumper gives away free wings when the Angels score ten or more runs. The Angels have done that in four straight games.

In other camps:

Angels: John Lackey has been shut down with elbow tightness and may not be ready for Opening Day.
Astros: Miguel Tejada will spend today's off day in Washington being sentenced for lying to Congress. He's expected to receive probation.
Marlins: Traded pitcher Eulogio De La Cruz to the Padres for a PTBNL.
Mets: Released Valerio de los Santos.
Padres: The sale of the team could be finalized as soon as today, and CEO Sandy Alderson is expected to resign when it is.
Rockies: The team is looking to move catcher Yorvit Torrealba and infielder Jeff Baker.
Tigers: Season ticket sales are currently at 15,000, down from 27,000 a year ago.

Sometimes a quote just jumps out at you. Consider, for example, this note from Ken Rosenthal:

Several of (Pedro) Martinez's friends, including the Dodgers' Manny Ramirez, have told him that he needs to be more realistic with his salary desires, sources say.

When Manny Ramirez says you need to be more realistic, you know you're asking for too much.

While I would gladly take a job as an MLB beat writer, there is one high profile job in baseball I definitely don't want: umpiring. Bob Timmerman of Baseball Analysts reviews a new book on the training and lives of umpires.

Oh, and today is a Woot-off day.

Drink up.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 14:05:11 -0000

Some things to read while everyone else is writing about the same thing.

I banged my head on my desk a few times this morning after reading this post from Tom H. which acknowledges the possibility that Mike Lamb and Tony Gwynn Jr. could start the season on the roster while Casey McGehee (who still has an option) and Chris Duffy (in camp on a minor league deal) are sent to AAA.

I get the premise: Stockpiling talent is a good thing, throwing it away is to be avoided if possible. But neither Lamb nor Gwynn are exceptional talents. Gwynn was below average in AAA each of the last two seasons and Lamb has been little more than a below average corner infielder for years now. Keeping them on the roster in place of players who could perform the same duties with a higher upside is like walking past a dollar on the sidewalk because your pockets are already full of pennies.

Meanwhile, Trot Nixon is playing his way out of camp and the Brewers have let him know he may not have a job in AAA either. (Also noted in FanShot) Nixon has played in 20 games this spring, hitting .105/.227/.211 in 38 at bats.

Speaking of players who aren't showing much this spring, if Trevor Hoffman isn't ready to start the regular season, David Riske will not be his replacement. Seth McClung is the pick over at View From Bernie's Chalet. He thinks the Brewers should take this opportunity to see if McClung can close next season, when Hoffman will likely be gone.

Regardless of how McClung starts the season, at least he knows he'll get to play somewhat regularly. Tom H. has a profile of Mike Rivera, who discusses what it was like to sit on the bench for weeks on end, including the Brewers' last 34 games in 2008.

I'm sure some Brewer fans wish Jeff Suppan would sit for weeks on end, too, but they're bound to be disappointed. With the announcement that Braden Looper will start on Thursday, Ken Macha implied that Jeff Suppan will be on the mound when the Brewers open the regular season on April 7. (Also noted in FanShot) Keeping Suppan in the #1 spot would mean the Brewers will pitch Suppan, Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra against the Giants, then Looper, Dave Bush and Suppan again against the Cubs.

Yovani Gallardo didn't have a great day on the mound yesterday, allowing six runs in five innings, but there is one encouraging note to pass along: Gallardo was scheduled for 90 pitches yesterday but threw 98, meaning he's pretty close to being fully stretched out.

On previews, rankings and projections:

Batter's Box Interactive has twelve questions about the NL Central, and wants to know what to expect from Rickie Weeks, Bill Hall and Jeff Suppan. Don't we all?
David Chalk of Bugs & Cranks has a Brewers/Rays comparison that likely isn't actually worth your time.
The Scores Report predicts the Brewers will finish third.
MLB Outsider ranks Ryan Braun as MLB's third best left fielder.

Jeremy Jeffress throws 100 mph and has quickly climbed the ladder to Huntsville in the Brewer farm system. He's also been suspended for smoking marijuana and has never thrown 100 innings in a season. As a result, it's probably no surprise that Jeffress is included in Dugout Central's list of hyped pitching prospects likely to fail.

Another day, another economics story: The Brewers have now filed three lawsuits in five days against businesses and suiteholders who owe them payments for the 2009 season.

In other camps:

Astros: Cecil Cooper thinks the Astros can win 90 games this season.
Dodgers: Shawn Estes will remain with the team and work to make the transition to the bullpen.
Giants: Returned West Bend native and Brewer killer Ryan Rohlinger to minor league camp.
Marlins: Cleared the final hurdle yesterday in securing financing for their new stadium, and could break ground yet this summer.
Padres: Signed Shawn Hill to a minor league deal.
Rays: Returned Rule 5 pick Derek Rodriguez to the White Sox. Also, B.J. Upton is unlikely to be ready to start the regular season after taking a pitch off his hand in a minor league game.
Reds: Released Daryle Ward and Aaron Fultz.

It's good news and bad news with Nate McLouth this spring. As The Book Blog notes, he appears to understand the sabermetrics of base stealing, but is completely lost on fielding metrics.

Can one get The Book on tape? If so, Alfonso Soriano and all of his neighbors could listen to it on his ridiculous car stereo.

Denard Span will have to settle for a smaller stereo after paying his fine for sloppy pants-wearing.

As we've mentioned previously, Corey Koskie retired this week, ending his attempted return from post concussion syndrome. Minor League Ball takes a look at his unlikely career.

Finally, despite the fact that he was 42 years old, hadn't pitched in over a year and was unsigned for 2009, it was big news yesterday when Curt Schilling announced his retirement. The news was so big, in fact, that ESPN didn't even have time to make sure they weren't showing a picture of Jose Canseco instead.

Drink up.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 15:06:04 -0000

Some things to read while thinking about what could have been.

So, the bullpen situation is increasingly chaotic, with Trevor Hoffman now possibly opening the season on the DL. (Also noted in FanShot) The situation is exacerbated by the fact that David Riske and Carlos Villanueva aren't pitching well and Seth McClung, who isn't pitching exceptionally well either, may be needed to fill a spot in the starting rotation. Riske, for one, is taking his spring results pretty seriously, saying he's in shock after allowing an earned run in five straight outings.

We all respond to stress differently, I suppose: After getting shelled in two innings in his first spring start yesterday, Mark DiFelice was cutting hair in the Brewer clubhouse.

Also in that last link is a note mentioning that Sam Narron was sent down to minor league camp. Elsewhere in roster moves, the Brewers decided to let the Astros keep Rule 5 pick Lou Palmisano. (Also noted in FanShot)

The Brewers also made a minor trade over the weekend, acquiring minor league infielder Sergio Miranda from the White Sox for future considerations. The move was big enough to draw notice from Al and in Rumorville, but it slipped through the cracks over at the JS. There's some speculation that those "future considerations" might end up being Tony Gwynn Jr., but of course that's not confirmed.

Speaking of Gwynn, while he would appear to be behind Chris Duffy, Brad Nelson and Trot Nixon in the race for backup outfield spots, he thinks his history with the organization will get him a spot on the team this spring. Best of luck to him in his future endeavors.

Casey McGehee also continues to make a solid case for making the team. View From Bernie's Chalet is going to be pretty upset if he doesn't make the roster.

Baseball Intellect has posted 6-15 in their rankings of Brewer prospects: Follow the link for scouting reports on Jonathan Lucroy, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi, Taylor Green, Cutter Dykstra, Cody Scarpetta, Caleb Gindl, Cole Gillespie and Zach Braddock, and an invitation to follow another link for a scouting report on Efrain Nieves.

Crawfish Boxes finished up their position-by-position look at the NL Central this weekend, ranking Corey Hart fourth among right fielders and Jason Kendall dead last among catchers.

Would their projection have changed if they knew Mike Rivera is going to get more starts in 2009? Ken Macha is planning to pair Rivera with Dave Bush to get Jason Kendall more frequent rest.

Elsewhere among predictions/projections/rankings:

FeinSports.com projects the Brewers for 79 wins and a third place finish.
Baseball Digest Daily doesn't have a prediction in their Brewer 2009 preview, but they do have some cool graphs and charts.
BareKnucks.com thinks the Brewers will win 72 games and finish fourth.
Not Today You Ain't picked the Brewers to finish fourth as well.

Do you like jokes involving Rickie Weeks? If so, you may enjoy his "interview" with Chatterbalks.

In other camps:

Dodgers: Released Shawn Estes.
Giants: Noah Lowry received a cortisone shot and will be unable to throw a baseball until April.
Mets: Released Tom Martin.
Nationals: Signed Josh Bard to a minor league deal.
Padres: Mark Worrell needs Tommy John surgery and will miss the 2009 season. He was acquired from the Cardinals for Khalil Greene.
Rangers: Signed Jimmy Gobble to a minor league deal.
Twins: Joe Mauer still has pain and inflammation in his back and is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day.
White Sox: Signed Gavin Floyd to a four year deal worth $15.5 million.

The Astros spring training has been pretty bad, but for one day the Tigers had it worse: they were no-hit by the Marlins yesterday with Ricky Nolasco and two relievers combining to accomplish the feat.

On Friday I mentioned the new Dodgers policy of putting a contribution to Dodger charities into all contracts. The MLBPA has filed a grievance that will likely end that practice in a hurry.

The Cubs sale is still on hold and will almost certainly not be done by Opening Day. Between the Green Pillars took a look at its implications for the Brewers.

Like one in four Americans, I'm left handed, so as a writer I'm encouraged by the fact that all the Reds beat writers are also lefties.

Think you know your stats? Got seven minutes to prove it? Take this quiz and see how many franchise win leaders you can name. I got 12, which is pretty good in the "taken before 7 am" division.

At the very least, those seven minutes will be a better investment than the $70,000 Torii Hunter invested in furniture rafts.

Baseball Reference is working on a new site design. As someone who uses the site countless times daily, I was concerned, but they've opened up the beta page and it looks pretty good. Here's Jeff Cirillo's page, if you're curious.

Over the weekend, BCB made a roster move of its own. Josh Kalk, aka Dixieflatline, is leaving the site to take a job with an AL team. Josh is a phenomenal talent and will be a tremendous asset to his new employers, but to the internet baseball community he's more than that.

There's a stereotype out there about bloggers and internet-based writers. There are people who label us as glorified loudmouths with too much time on their hands and a "home office" in mom's basement. As a medium, we owe a debt of gratitude to people like Josh, Jeff Sackmann, David Pinto, Tom Tango and a variety of others that have shown that, at times, the best baseball analysis being done today is happening here on the internet, and the work that we're producing here should not be universally ignored by teams and the media.

At any rate, congratulations and thank you to Josh for all he's done and continues to do.

Oh, and Peter Angelos may not be the best savior for horse racing.

Drink up.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 13:48:46 -0000

Some things to read while not watching soccer.

So, a quick stroll through Rumorville this morning revealed that there's renewed buzz around Mike Cameron, with the Yankees once again rumored to be seeking his services. Tom H. says nothing is imminent right now. Hopefully that'll be the end of it.

Of course, it's also possible Melvin has been too busy to answer the phone: Yesterday he was unable to work out a trade so Eduardo Morlan has been returned to the Rays. (Also noted in FanShot)

He also had to evaluate new Brewer Wes Littleton, who pitched a 1-2-3 inning in his debut. He's probably not the first Brewer to say something like this about his new surroundings:

As for those familiar faces, there were non-roster outfielder Jason Bourgeois and pitcher Sam Narron, who have neighboring lockers and were once teammates of Littleton in the Rangers' farm system.

Or he could just be holding his breath as Ryan Braun tests out his sore intercostal muscle to see if he can take batting practice and/or play in the WBC semifinals. The Brewers get to make the final call, so don't be surprised if Braun is held out.

This one probably didn't take too much time, but I'd assume there was also some paperwork involved in returning Lorenzo Cain, Jonathan Lucroy and Scott Thorman to minor league camp.

Melvin may not have had time to talk to Ken Macha about his decision to try Jason Kendall in the leadoff spot. (Also noted in FanShot) Yes, Kendall takes some pitches and will draw a walk, but Two-Fisted Slopper notes that Weeks actually did both of those things better than Kendall in 2008. The Book blog has another conversation starter on whether any of this matters all that much.

Also, further down in that Journal Sentinel story is a note on Tony Gwynn, who is expected to play in the field for the first time on Saturday. Don't read too much into it, but there may be a note in there about who Macha likes among his outfield candidates:

The other thing is there are two (reserve) outfield spots. You've got four guys there: Nelson, (Trot) Nixon and the other two guys.

Speaking of Nixon, thanks to TheJay for spotting this note on his number change:

Former Tribe outfielder Trot Nixon has an uphill fight to make the Brewers' roster and thought he needed an edge.

Nixon wore No. 3 on the back of his uniform then abruptly changed to 93.

"I'm just trying to shake things up," he said.

Visual evidence of yesterday's game:

A ball snuck through the infield while J.J. Hardy was working on his belly flop.
Mike Cameron and a guy who should really put a shirt on both chase a fly ball - Cameron wins.
Cameron also did his best to break up a double play.
Was Prince Fielder congratulating Corey Hart for yet another spring training home run, or for reaching first base on his knees? We may never know.

After a tumultuous few seasons, it sounds like things have finally settled down in Nashville, with the Sounds getting new ownership and spending $2.5 million renovating Greer Stadium with the hopes of repairing a relationship with the city and fans that has been allowed to deteriorate.

Elsewhere in the minors, former Brewer Callix Crabbe and current farmhands Zelous Wheeler and Maverick Lasker are among the 64 players invited to MLB.com's Moniker Madness tournament.

In other camps:

Dodgers: Released Yhency Brazoban.
Giants: Are reportedly in the market for a backup catcher and relief pitching.
Indians: Former top prospect Adam Miller may require surgery to regain movement in his right middle finger, and could miss the entire 2009 season.
Mets: Have reportedly made an offer to Pedro Martinez.
White Sox: May be scouring the trade market looking for a proven center fielder.

Could the Brewers lose a divisional rival in Arizona? Jealous of new facilities built for the White Sox and Dodgers, the Cubs are threatening to leave Mesa if the city doesn't improve HoHoKam park. Sarasota, Florida is being named as an option.

Of course, when you train in Arizona you get spoiled sometimes, with so many things you don't have to worry about anymore. The Rays training complex in Florida, for example, has wild boars roaming the facility at night.

Being generous is a good thing. Forcing generosity onto others is a different problem: Apparently the Dodgers have decided that all new contracts must include a donation to the Dodgers Dream Foundation. Frank McCourt has set himself up for a bunch of $1 donations.

Last year, the Padres were bad. This year, the Padres may also be bad, but Geoff Young says they'll at least be bad in an interesting way.

Oh, and if you're lobbying at the Capitol and you want to have any kind of success, you probably shouldn't snatch wallets while you're there.

Drink up.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 14:11:11 -0000

Some things to read while having that dream again.

Coming off an outing yesterday that saw him give up two home runs in an inning and a third, Carlos Villanueva has been called out by management and needs to have a couple of good outings yet this spring to secure his role as Trevor Hoffman's primary set-up man. PocketDoppler thought the timing was a little odd, but isn't reading too much into it.

While the first home run off of Villanueva (hit by Ryan Rohlinger) was inside-the-park, it bounced off a 35 foot high wall 435 feet from home plate, so odds are it would have been a home run in most parks. The second one actually cleared the same fence, which hadn't been done in over a dozen years. Jesus Guzman, who hit the shot, says he'd never hit a ball that far in his life.

Meanwhile, the Brewers made a roster move for the third straight day, claiming reliever Wes Littleton off waivers from the Red Sox and designating Eduardo Morlan for assignment to make room on the roster. (h/t FanShot) The Brewers have until Thursday to work out a deal to keep Morlan or offer him back to Tampa for $25,000, and while the Rays are taking their time to think it over, I can't imagine them deciding to let the Brewers keep a young, talented prospect without getting anything in return.

By the end of spring, the Brewers' trainers will be experts in treating torso injuries: Trevor Hoffman is the latest Brewer to miss time with an oblique strain. (Also noted in FanShot) It's not expected to be serious, and team officials aren't concerned about it affecting Hoffman's preparations for the season. The injury did, however, give Hoffman more time to talk to Scott Miller of CBS Sports about his new home and taking one bite out of entire plates of donuts.

Yes, if you're scoring at home, we've now established that Trevor Hoffman eats two things: donuts and worms.

The outbreak of ribcage injuries in Brewer camp has led Big League Stew to wonder if the McRib should compete in the 2009 Sausage Race.

Finally, Angel Salome is now sidelined indefinitely with back spasms after being removed from Saturday's game. One would have to assume the Brewers will take it slow with his rehab this time, seeing as it's the second occurence.

Visual evidence from yesterday's game:

This photo of Ken Macha must have been taken early in the game, because I doubt he was laughing afterwards.
Another day, another awkward celebration photo: this time it's Alcides Escobar and Trot Nixon.
Nixon was, however, just a few inches away from a great leaping catch in right field.

Trot Nixon has come around a bit in the last week or so of camp, but it might be too little too late to replace Brad Nelson on the roster. Nelson's bat has cooled a bit this week, but he and Chris Duffy are still the most likely candidates to open the season in the two vacant backup outfielder spots.

In the only season preview I have today, Full Count Pitch thinks the Brewers' pitching deficiencies are likely too large to overcome, but projects them to win 80-85 games and finish just out of the playoffs.

Despite that, though, the Brewers are one of the finalists for Sports Business Journal's Professional Sports Team of the Year. The winner will be announced on May 28.

Meanwhile, in other camps:

Astros: Aaron Boone is leaving the team to have heart surgery and may be forced to retire.
A's: Released Rob Bowen.
Padres: Reliever Chris Britton has been informed he won't make the team, and may report to minor league camp or become a free agent.
Phillies: Tests showed no structural damage in Cole Hamels' elbow, but he's still a long shot to be ready for Opening Day.
Rangers: Andruw Jones is unlikely to make the team coming out of spring training and could opt out of his deal as soon as Friday.
Royals: Signed Sidney Ponson to a minor league deal.

Ryan Braun didn't play in the WBC last night, but he will remain with the team following Team USA's walkoff victory, advancing to the semifinals. I'm torn on this: obviously I like seeing Team USA succeed, but I also would have liked to have Braun back in Arizona with the rest of the team.

Corey Koskie made his spring debut for the Cubs yeterday and doubled in his first at bat. It's good to see him complete his recovery.

Teams are always searching far and wide to find the next generation of players, but where will major league baseball find the next generation of umpires? The Padres have an idea, and they're sponsoring a camp for Marines interested in learning the job. I hadn't thought about it before, but the quote in the link is dead-on: Marines are uniquely qualified.

Oh, and former Brewers Rick Helling and Mike Myers are working for the Players Association now.

Drink up.

Handicapping the next set of cuts

KLSnow — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 13:00:11 -0000

The Brewers are likely close to the point where they need to trim down camp a bit. With starting pitchers getting stretched out and regular position players getting more time, there's just not as many innings and at bats to go around as there used to be, meaning a few of the less-likely candidates to open the season on the roster will probably be making the journey over to minor league camp in the next few days. Here are my odds for the candidates:

Chris Narveson - 1:1

Narveson has made three appearances in camp, but was lit up in his last one, giving up five runs (four earned) in two innings, including two home runs. All told, Narveson's upside just isn't that high and he's likely ticketed for a spot near the bottom of the rotation in Nashville.

Sam Narron - 3:2

Narron has yet to allow a run in camp, scoreless over five innings. But he's walked four and given up five hits in those five innings, while striking out just two. Narron is roughly the fifth best left-handed reliever in camp, behind Stetter, Swindle, Chase Wright and Lindsay Gulin.

Lindsay Gulin - 2:1

Gulin gets a slight advantage over Narveson because he hasn't had a bad outing in camp, and over Narron for having a much better K/BB ratio (8:2). Gulin has pitched in three games (five innings), and has allowed just one run on three hits. Gulin is 32 and has pitched 11 minor league seasons. Last year he pitched well in Nashville, and the Brewers may want to send him down so he can start getting stretched out.

Omar Aguilar- 4:1

Possibly the organization's top relief prospect, Aguilar could be a victim of the numbers game in camp, with no less than 17 other pitchers (not counting the three listed above) needing innings. Aguilar has allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits and two walks while striking out five this spring.

Carlos Corporan 8:1

At present, he's one of the few healthy catchers in camp, but with Vinny Rottino back from the WBC and Angel Salome and Mike Rivera getting ready to come back from injuries, by this time next week the Brewers will be back to having five healthy catchers plus Corporan, who is not considered a prospect and has virtually no chance of making the team.

Trot Nixon 10:1

Not that long ago, the Brewers had a shortage of outfielders. Now, when Ryan Braun returns from the WBC and Tony Gwynn makes his debut, the Brewers will have Braun, Cameron, Hart, Chris Duffy and Brad Nelson, all of whom would appear to be ahead of Nixon in the race to make the team, plus Tony Gwynn and Lorenzo Cain, who both could use some extra time for evaluation purposes.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 14:26:28 -0000

Some things to read while putting your mustache on for the day.

On the field, Tuesday was an off day for most Brewers. Seth McClung threw three innings in a minor league game to stay on schedule, with R.J. Swindle and Mat Gamel joining him in minor league camp for the day. McClung is, at least for the moment, part of the starting rotation that USA Today says will be the key to the Brewers' season.

Whether you like or dislike Rickie Weeks, it's encouraging to see stories like this one, where the coaching staff is working with him to correct his flaws. Sounds like Dale Sveum is working on several aspects of his related to his batting stance and swing, and Willie Randolph has taken on the task of improving his defense.

While Weeks learns to play one position, Adam McCalvy takes a look at some of the Brewers in camp who can play more than one, and how their versatility helps and hinders their careers. View From Bernie's Chalet thinks Chris Duffy, Brad Nelson and Casey McGehee will take the last bench spots, with Jorge Julio, Todd Coffey and Mark DiFelice picking up the final bullpen spots. That would leave Mike Lamb, Trot Nixon, Tim Dillard, R.J. Swindle and Eduardo Morlan, among others, off the roster.

Speaking of DiFelice, both he and Vinny Rottino should be back in camp soon as Team Italy was eliminated from the WBC yesterday. Rottino picked up a double in the ninth in his only at bat. The big news of the day, however, was The Netherlands' 2-1, 11 inning win over the Dominican Republic, singlehandedly eliminating the DR from contention. Babes Love Baseball thinks Bert Blyleven's performance as pitching coach for the Netherlands should be added to his Hall of Fame resume.

Meanwhile, Curt Schilling has written about the impact of pitching in the WBC, comparing it to baseball's All-Star series in Japan, which Schilling pitched in following the 1998 season.

Some days the Mug feels a little empty without a mention of Eric Gagne. Miller Park Drunk has a photo essay covering his Brewer career.

Some aging veterans, however, can still play: The Seattle Post-Intelligencer has a profile of Mike Cameron. The story is a great, well rounded view of Cameron as a person, including his locker room antics, his battle with post-concussion syndrome (which I haven't seen anywhere else), and his family.

On rankings, projections, etc:

The Ghost of Moonlight Graham lists Ryan Braun #3 on his list of five players to build a franchise around.
Both Braun and Prince Fielder made Sportscrack's All Under 25 Team.
Do Gummi Bears Dream of Rubber Passion Fruit? (probably the strangest blog name I've ever linked) predicts the Brewers will finish third in the NL Central, behind the Reds and Cubs, in that order.
Batter's Box Interactive has Sportsinteraction.com's 2009 over/unders, which have the Brewers at 80.5 wins.
Rowland's Office has the Brewers tied for fourth in the NL Central with the Astros. That's about as exciting as one of Erik Bedard's greeting cards.

I'm pretty surprised by this number, which I would have expected to be lower: Over 50% of fans at Miller Park last season came from outside of the five-county area that's helping pay for the ballpark. That number is probably a little inflated, as it includes visiting fans of opposing teams, but it's still impressive. Don Walker uses it to make a case for the retractable roof.

Stories from other camps:

Mariners: Brandon Morrow suffered a setback in a bullpen session and will not be ready for Opening Day.
Mets: Angel Pagan has elected to have surgery on his right elbow and will miss 6-8 weeks. The team also released Duaner Sanchez.
Padres: GM Kevin Towers said in a radio interview yesterday that several spots are still open in his bullpen, and some could be filled as players come available at the end of camp.
Rangers: Ben Sheets is in Texas rehabbing with the Rangers' team doctor, but team officials say there's no connection to the team.
Rockies: Jorge de la Rosa may not make the Rockies' rotation after all. He was pulled from a start yesterday after just one third of an inning, and has a spring ERA over 20.

It has not been a good spring for the Astros. On the field, they lost their tenth straight game yesterday. Off the field, FanGraphs ranked them 28th in their organizational rankings, ahead of only the Nationals and Marlins.

Andruw Jones had also been having a rough spring, until he met up with Claudio Vargas. Vargas gave up a home run to Jones yesterday. At one point this spring, Jones had struck out 10 times in 14 at bats.

On the economic front, things don't look so good for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Hearst-Argyle, a minority partner in the team, is selling their 1.7% share of the team for an estimated $2.25 million. That price would suggest the value of the franchise has fallen $247 million in the past year.

The news isn't quite as bad for the Mariners, but still ugly: not only did the team narrowly avoid losing 100 games last season, they also lost $4.5 million. Hopefully new management can generate some enthusiasm among the fan base, even if they don't win in 2009 either.

Are the Cubs already learning the dangers of relying on Milton Bradley? Bleed Cubbie Blue has quotes from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram where Bradley admits to taking some days off in 2008 to protect his stat line. Eric Seidman of FanGraphs calls Bradley the "most talented player of the last ten years who truly deserves to sign one-year deals each season."

Baseball Musings' Team Offense Projections has projected the Cardinals to score 4.97 runs per game in 2009. They scored 4.81 in 2008.

Oh, and I forgot to mention it on Monday, but there are new pictures on Gorman's Flickr page.

Drink up.

Rockies Find New Ways to Keep the Streak Alive; Now 0-7

theoldgrizzlybear — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 23:35:42 -0000

It is another day, meaning the Rockies lost another Spring Training game, this time falling to the Milwaukee Brewers 8-6 at Maryvale Baseball Park in Phoenix.

This one was different, though, as the Rockies offense was able to muster up 6 runs against the Brew Crew's pitchers (mainly just Carlos Villanueva and Mitch Stetter), and got 2-run homers from Dan Ortmeier and Seth Smith. Omar Quintanilla added to his impressive spring totals with 2 more hits, and Eric Young Jr. and Paul Phillips each chipped in with RBI singles as well. However, the bullpen (and pitching in general) failed the Rockies again, with the final dagger coming when Ryan Mattheus served up a 2-run home run off the bat of Trot Nixon in the bottom of the 8th inning - the last of four gopher balls that the Rockies gave up on the afternoon.

Colorado likely stuck to their strategy of feeding meatballs to the opposition, a statement backed by the following pitching lines:

Greg Smith - 3 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, HR

Greg Reynolds - 3 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 HR, 2 K

Ryan Mattheus - IP, 3 H (all XBH), 2 ER, HR

In between all of the fail, Alan Embree pitched a solid 1-2-3 inning in which he struck out a batter (Prince Fielder).

The Rockies are off tomorrow, and will be back at it again (hopefully, not in typical fashion) Thursday in an exhibition (isn't every ST game an exhibition?) game against Mexico's WBC team.

Wrap rating:

via willbecontinued.files.wordpress.com

Twenty-two guys, four spots - Who's on your roster?

KLSnow — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 21:00:09 -0000

So, with Braden Looper in the fold, we know most, if not all of the following:

Barring a trade, Jason Kendall, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, Bill Hall, Ryan Braun, Mike Cameron and Corey Hart will all be on the opening day roster, likely in starting roles.
Ditto for Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Dave Bush, Braden Looper and Jeff Suppan.
In the bullpen, Trevor Hoffman, Seth McClung, Carlos Villanueva and David Riske are virtually guaranteed spots. One more will almost certainly belong to a lefty, either Mitch Stetter or R.J. Swindle.
Craig Counsell, Mike Lamb and Mike Rivera are all back and very likely to be on the opening day roster in bench roles.

Given all of those assumptions, 21 of the 25 opening day roster spots are already decided. So what's left?

In the bullpen, two or three spots remain for all of the following players:

Todd Coffey. He still hasn't allowed a run as a Brewer and signed a major league contract to avoid arbitration. He's out of options.
Jorge Julio. Signed to a major league contract, making just under $1 million plus incentives.
Either Mitch Stetter or R.J. Swindle - whichever doesn't win the LOOGY job listed above. Throwing left-handed increases both pitchers' value, but Stetter posted a 3.20 ERA as a Brewer last season and Swindle posted a 1.98 ERA in AAA last season, so both guys already have some value.
Eduardo Morlan. Rule 5 pick has to be offered back to the Rays if he doesn't make the roster.
Mark DiFelice. 1.50 ERA in his last 14 outings as a Brewer (18 innings). Could be sent back to Nashville to work as a starter, but the Nashville rotation may already be full with Narveson, Gulin, Narron, Wright, and eventually Capuano.
Tim Dillard. Likely to be returned to AAA just because he has options remaining.
Joe Bateman, Luis Pena, Ramiro Mendoza, Omar Aguilar, Chris Narveson, Lindsay Gulin, Sam Narron and Chase Wright. Thanks for coming, guys. The eight of you and two or three of the guys above will likely pitch most of the innings for a nice staff in Nashville.

The Brewers could opt to go with a 13 man pitching staff and keep three of those guys, but then they'd have just one bench spot left. Instead, they'll likely keep 12 pitchers and pick two position players from the following list:

Tony Gwynn, Jr. Out of options, Gwynn either has to make the opening day roster or be exposed to waivers. However, he'll have to prove he's better than his .248/.300/.298 career MLB line and .243/.286/.286 major league equivalent from 2008, or he won't have much value. Also, his defense doesn't project well enough to help his chances: CHONE has him 11 runs below average in center.
Chris Duffy. Likely Gwynn's primary competition for the backup center field spot, Duffy's offensive numbers aren't earth-shattering (.269/.328/.361 in his major league career), but he's a plus defender (UZR/150 has him 6.2 runs above average in center).
Jason Bourgeois. Will likely have to win a spot as an outfielder, with Counsell and Lamb both occupying backup infield spots. Bourgeois hit .342/.404/.429 in Mexico this winter, but FanGraphs' 3 projections all have his 2009 OBP under .343.
Hernan Iribarren. Likely hurt by playing the exact same set of defensive positions as Bourgeois. Hernan also had a nice winter, hitting .306/.388/.451 in Venezuela and detonating two indisputables. Projections are similar, if not a little worse, than Bourgeois'. Likely a long shot to make the roster in the first place, he's hurt even more by having an identical player in camp with him.
Trot Nixon. If the Brewers go with 13 pitchers, Nixon and all the others below this point are already eliminated, as the last bench spot would have to go to someone who can play center. As a story, Nixon is very similar to Gabe Kapler at this point last year, but Kapler was three years younger.
Brad Nelson. He'll have to prove he can play a corner outfield spot to have much value, as Mike Lamb and Craig Counsell already have the infield covered. Likely has a higher long-term upside than Nixon if he's not a defensive liability, which he very well may be.
Casey McGehee. The Brewers insist they're eager to see what he can do, but unless he unseats Mike Lamb to platoon with Bill Hall, it's hard to imagine him making the roster. He has caught a little in the minors (including 17 games in 2008), so he could provide some value as a third catcher, but has never played the outfield, so if Lamb and Counsell are in, he's likely out.
Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar and Angel Salome. Unless the opportunity for one of them to play full time arises, all three are likely ticketed for Nashville, where they can continue to develop their skills.
Scott Thorman, Vinny Rottino and all of the extra catchers invited to camp. Again, thanks for coming, guys. Enjoy the improved post-game food while you can.

So, assuming everyone stays healthy, four of the 22 players listed above can make the opening day roster. Who do you want, and why? Also, if you were building this roster, would you keep 12 pitchers or 13? Discuss.