SB Nation - Kevin Mench

I'm Not the Way I Thought I Was: Solving the Blue Jays' DH-Sized Dilemma

hugo — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 17:25:56 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Travis Snider's ineffectiveness and subsequent injury has left the Jays in the lurch for a competent designated hitter. How to solve this vexing problem? (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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So, as you B^3-ers likely remember, the Jays had a bit of trouble at the DH spot last season. Jays' DHs batted .247/.325/.418, well below league-average DH production. It was especially problematic for a team like the 2008 Jays, who were built around pitching and defense, to have such tepid production out of the offense-only DH spot. Even worse was the production out of left field (.258/.325/.384), the second-least important defensive position.

Going into this season, Jays faithful were told that this was the year of Adam Lind and Travis Snider. Most of the "credit" for the poor DH/LF performance was due to Frank Thomas, Shannon Stewart, Matt Stairs, Brad Wilkerson, and Kevin Mench -- I won't even show their numbers, because they are awful, but just trust me -- and those 5 gentlemen were all gone. Here on B^3, we thought Lind was ready for prime-time, but we debated the merits of acquiring a LF/DH bat, especially with the market cold on guys like Pat Burrell, and starting Snider in the minors rather than just throwing him into the fire. I can't remember what we concluded, so let's assume that we all unanimously agreed that Snider wasn't quite ready to make the necessary adjustments once the league got a taste of him and that he should start in the minors.

Fast forward to the end of June, we're almost but not quite halfway through the season, and the Jays are doing well, sitting 5 games over .500 and just 1 game behind the New York Yankees for the AL Wild Card lead. And, yet, a familiar problem...

Snider started hot but cooled off quickly and drastically. He was sent to the minors where he hurt himself and won't even be swinging a bat again until July. I think it's safe to assume he'll be a September callup, if anything. Adam Lind started the season as the regular DH and was fantastic but took over leftfield duties when Snider was sent down. Lind, unlike Snider, plays against lefties and righties (a healthy .847 OPS against lefties), so he doesn't need a platoon partner. But so who should play DH?

The Contenders:

Kevin Millar: Copacetic Up? Millar started the season as Lyle Overbay's platoon partner but Overbay has been hitting so well lately (though his numbers against lefties are pretty poor still) and offers so much more defensively that you can make the argument that Lyle should be playing every day. Millar has never shown much platoon-i-ness, and offers all that gooey clubhouse stuff, so he'd seem like a logical choice to take the everyday DH spot, right? Not so fast! You might not have noticed if you don't have a Millar effigy you punch in the face every morning like our very own Tom Dakers, but old Kev's hitting hasn't exactly been up to par lately. He's presently batting a putrid .246/.318/.388, which is actually worse than our DH production from last year. He's doing all right against lefties (.821 OPS) but absolutely putrid against righties (a Mac-like .596 OPS) so he might be half of the answer (actually more like 1/3 of it) but definitely is not the full answer. And he's been awful for the past two months (.647 OPS in May, .618 in June). Next.

Jose Bautista: Bautista has always hit lefties well -- he has a career .819 OPS against them -- and this season is no exception. Jose is batting .302/.383/.472/.855 against portsiders, definitely well enough to be the right-handed third of a DH platoon. But he has always been a bad hitter against righties, and this season, far from being an exception, has been much worse -- we're talking .217/.397/.250 bad, albeit in just 80 plate appearances. You'll notice from the high OBP that Bautista has earned a lot of walks against righties, and that's certainly true. On the flipside, he has seemed afraid to swing the bat against them, and perhaps for good reason given his poor hitting. Bautista has a long career of being a bad major-league hitter against righthanded pitching (.683 career OPS against them). Bautista wouldn't be a bad option to DH against lefties, but as an everyday DH he's a terrible choice. And of course DH-ing him would compromise his versatility in the field (since the DH can't replace a fielder unless the pitcher bats). And Jose is needed to spell Rolen fairly frequently.

Russ Adams: Recently called up to the Jays, Russ Adams isn't anybody's first idea of a DH. He has an 81 OPS+ over his major-league career and, up until recently, was a middle infielder. That said, Adams has been attempting to re-make himself into a utility player over the past few seasons, with some success. He hasn't lit up AAA at all the past two seasons, but he had a nice second half last year and started well this season (.876 OPS with Las Vegas in 2009). Of course, you have to look at those numbers in the context of the PCL, but in truth Adams has never been all that bad of a hitter against right-handed pitching. Over Russ' career, he has a .725 OPS against starboard-side hurlers, not great but considerably better than Millar and Bautista are doing against righties at the moment (and, in Bautista's case, over his career). Consider that Adams is in his hitting prime while Millar is way past it. And Russ certainly offers more than either of those two on the basepaths.

An interesting comparison for Adams is Ben Zobrist. Zobrist is the same age as Adams and his career has followed a similar path - a former SS whose plate discipline in the minors didn't translate to the majors right away and who moved from SS amidst concerns about his defense. Zobrist, unlike Adams, is a switch-hitter, but he's pretty much exclusively used as a lefty hitter and has remade himself as a platoon utility player and corner-infielder. Zobrist had a great 1/3 or so of a season last year in that role and has been even better this season in the same role. He's not all that different of a hitter than Adams and, while I'm not suggesting Adams will put up an OPS north of 1.000 in 225 plate appearances, as Zobrist has done thusfar, there's at least some precedent for the idea that a former middle-infield prospect can become a successful platoon-type corner outfielder.

Randy Ruiz: Ruiz, essentially a career minor-leaguer, has a nice track record in the minors, and is currently OPS-ing .971 with AAA Las Vegas, with solid power numbers. On the other hand, he's a right-handed hitter (though he has hit well against righties in the minors) so a platoon isn't really an option and his hitting didn't translate to the majors last season in his first taste of the bigs (at 30). He probably wouldn't be any worse than starting Millar every day, but that doesn't necessarily make him a great option as an everyday DH.

David Dellucci: Dellucci was recently acquired by the Jays as a lefthanded bat and has been playing a bit in AAA. Looch hit .275/.333/.350 in 45 plate appearances for Cleveland earlier this season, isn't doing much in the minors, and is 3 years removed from his last even league average season. His bat speed seems to be fading. I don't think he's the answer either.

Brian Dopirak: He's only at AA, but with the 1st base and DH spots occupied by guys hitting well (Ruiz and Brett Harper) at AAA, he's more than earned a promotion and with the hole we have at DH, why not to the bigs? There's no doubt that Dopirak's line -- .307/.369/.580, with 16 home runs, 22 doubles, and 1 triple in 291 plate appearances -- is impressive, and he's 25 years old so there's no argument that he's too young. Dopirak, like Ruiz , Millar, and Bautista, bats righthanded, so he would need to be the everyday DH to get the at-bats he'd need to make it worth bringing him up. He's hit righties quite well this season though.

????: I haven't heard the Jays to be seriously involved in trade talks for a bat, but it's possible they could bring someone in from outside the organization to DH. Dakers has mentioned Nick Johnson, and he's certainly a good hitter (126 lifetime OPS+). He's putting up excellent numbers in a pitchers' park right now, and he is a patient, tough out with a gap to gap approach. Folks have said he's having a career year, but he's not -- he's in with his career numbers, but just healthy after an awful string of bad luck and accidents. DHing might keep him healthy, and his contract runs out at the end of this season so I can't imagine the Nationals would want more than a minor-league arm or two for him. It might be worth a look. Other possibilities? For sentimental reasons, how about Frank Catalanotto? He wouldn't cost more than a PTBNL, I'd imagine. But he hasn't done anything this season and he wasn't great last year either, so I'm not sure what type of upgrade he'd be over Dellucci. There are other bats available, so by all means, who do you want to DH for the Jays? Unless they make a move for Johnson or someone else, I'm afraid the best option is a Bautista/Adams or Millar/Adams platoon, and that's not exactly encouraging if the Jays plan to continue to contend, is it? So let's hear it -- who would you DH from now on?

Title from a great song by the great Madison, Wisconsin band Rainer Maria

Lazy Saturday Comparisons

TheJay — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 16:28:52 -0000

Have you ever read a baseball story about a pitcher that says something along the lines of when he's on the mound, he turns opposing hitters into [MLB hitter]? It's a fun way to bring up the pitcher's opposing batting average, OBP, and so on in an easily understandable context. Of course, that does not mean those comparisons are problem free. After all, major league hitters are not the same. Some are more patient than others, some drive the ball a long way, some slap hits all over the field, and some are in the majors for their gloves. No matter what you do, you can't turn Jason Kendall or Craig Counsell into Adam Dunn.

But even though that's the case, there's nothing stopping us from using our Saturday to make those sorts of comparisons. I thought it would be fun to look at the Brewers pitching staff and see who they turn opposing hitters into from the mound. In order to keep things recent and not penalize/reward guys like Jeff Suppan for what he did ten years ago, I have used major league stats from 2006-present both for pitchers and hitters (sorry, Mr. Kendall). In the case of Braden Looper, I used his numbers as a starter. For Seth McClung, I used his time in Milwaukee. Feel free to disagree, but I think that's fair. I've given a couple options for each pitcher so you can take your pick.

Brewers Pitcher	Opposing Hitter
Yovani Gallardo (.226/.298/.364)	Jeremy Reed (.253/.294/.369) Brian Anderson (.227/.289/.370)
Jeff Suppan (.292/.355/.461)	James Loney (.300/.353/.461) Miguel Tejada (.309/.353/.459) Fernando Tatis (.282/.354/.461)
Manny Parra (.281/.361/.425)	Fred Lewis (.279/.356/.424) Michael Young (.306/.354/.435)
Braden Looper (.274/.324/.440)	Garret Anderson (.286/.324/.442) Chad Tracy (.267/.328/.435)
Dave Bush (.259/.312/.447)	Jay Bruce (.240/.309/.457) Eric Byrnes (.261/.318/.446)
Seth McClung (.234/.337/.363)	Juan Pierre (.296/.337/.370) Scott Podsednik (.264/.328/.360)
Todd Coffey (.294/.355/.448)	Mike Fontenot (.279/.356/.446) Lyle Overbay (.278/.355/.453)
Carlos Villanueva (.241/.310/.417)	Kevin Mench (.265/.312/.418) Ivan Rodriguez (.283/.312/.418) Tony Clark (.226/.315/.415)
Mark DiFelice (.202/.244/.350)	Jason Smith (.205/.244/.352)
Mitch Stetter (.155/.308/.270)	Abraham Nunez (.220/.309/.276)
Trevor Hoffman (.210/.252/.332)	Jason Smith (.205/.244/.352) Adam Melhuse (.210/.267/.321)

If you want to take Carlos Villanueva's time as a starter out of the equation, his comparisons are akin to Yovani Gallardo's. I realize Kevin Mench isn't currently in the majors, but a) it's Kevin Mench and b) I didn't know Ivan Rodriguez hits like Kevin Mench these days.

Jason Smith shows up twice, mainly because it's really hard to stay in the majors for even 250 plate appearances if you make that many outs. I had to use Abraham Nunez, who last had more than a cup of coffee in the majors in 2007, for much the same reason. He played in the Brewers system last year, though, and he's kind of a modern standard for light-hitting infielders so I think it works.

Oh, and today's White Sox pitcher, Jose Contreras? His .277/.335/.424 since 2006 lines up nicely with Billy Butler (.282/.335/.423) and Gary Matthews Jr. (.271/.337/.425).

Friday's Frosty Mimosa

roguejim — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 12:00:34 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

'I spy, with my little eye, something that is...a gopherball to Ian Stewart." (AP Photo/Darren Hauck)

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Some things to read while mustering enthusiasm for a team on a losing streak.

Hidden behind the hoopla of the baseball draft is that the Brewers are on a bit of a slide, having lost a season-high four in a row and seven of their last ten. If you're looking for a silver lining, though, these losses are far from blowouts: Thursday's 5-4 loss to the Rockies is the 5th straight where the winning margin was by only one or two runs; by comparison, each of their 3 June wins were by three runs or more. Plus, the rest of the NL Central has so far been unable to take advantage, with the Crew maintaining a half game lead in the division.

The loss at the hands of the Rockies continues what seems to me to be something of an anomaly: the Brewers have been involved in an inordinate amount of series sweeps over the last 6+ weeks. Starting on April 27th, the Brewers have played in 14 series, and half of them resulted in a sweep. Of the seven sweeps, the Cream City Crushers were the sweep-er 5 times and the sweep-ee only twice.

One person who isn't concerned about the Brewers' slide: Tim Brown at Yahoo! has the Crew at 6th place in his power rankings. Tom Haudricourt isn't panicking either, though Michael Hunt says it can't get worse.

The Brewer faithful seem pretty optimistic: in a JSOnline poll of nearly 3000, 83% feel the Brewers will be in the postseason.

If you don't like the small ball, you'll love this promotion: starting on June 15th, the Brewers will play Dollars for Dingers: for each home run the Brewers hit from June 15-25, the team will deduct $1 from the price of a $28 loge ticket for the July 7th and 8th games against the Cardinals. One week-long power binge, and we're talking free tickets.

Rambling Al smells a trade brewing, perhaps involving JJ Hardy for a starting pitcher. You can make the argument that Parra is still with the main club because we don't have a head-and-shoulders-better replacement (all apologies to Son of Clung). Al speculates that Erik Bedard might be a possibility, though Geoff Baker at the Seattle Times worries that trading Bedard would alienate the fan base. I wonder: wouldn't Russell Branyan be an attractive sell-high candidate for the Ms?

Bernie's Crew and BrewerFan.net are also in on the speculation, and are thinking Bedard or Cliff Lee but not Jake Peavy. There's also speculation that Melvin has a back-up trade in the works if the first one falls through, both for starting pitching. The timing would be a little odd, given that our starters have been pretty good (though not pitching deep into games), and our offense has been struggling. (Oof.)

Peter Gammons has noted that former Brewer Minor League Player of the Year Nelson Cruz is "seemingly a lock" to make the American League All-Star team. No, thanks, we'll upgrade to Kevin Mench.

Brian Anderson wants kids to know that each of them is special. Remember, Dash, everyone is special...which means no one is.

Don't forget to vote the Brewers into the All-Star Game. As of Wednesday, only Ryan Braun has enough votes to start, though Jason Kendall is 4th in the NL for catcher. Voting ends on July 2nd; let's make a mockery of the ASG and get Jason in there.

DRAFT RESULTS

Now that the draft is over, it's fun to pore over who we picked, like coming home from church on Christmas morning so you can play with your new toys. You can access a list of all of our new can't-miss prospects here, including scouting reports for the top 5 players. Two of our 53 picks hail from Wisconsin: Cullen Sexton from Stevens Point Area High School, with pick 1126, and Brad Schreiber from Kimberly High School, with pick 1276. Tom H. is tracking other Wisconsinites who were drafted as well.

As you undoubtedly have already seen, Battlekow has started his terrific BCB Interview series, including one with top pick Eric Arnett. Click here for a list of all of Tom Snyder's BK's interviews, plus one with pick 796 Felix Rutledge coming up later on Friday.

MLB.com writer Cash Kruth has noted one big difference between scouting director Bruce Seid from his predecessor: while Jack Zduriencik often went with high-ceiling/high-risk high school athletes, Seid seems to prefer collegians, who accounted for 21 of the Brewers' first 30 picks.

Adam McCalvey has a cute story on 12-year-old Aaron Ash, and his tryout as future Brewer scouting director.

If you like your prospects a little older, Between the Green Pillars is scouting some of the bigger names in our minor league system. Last week was Cody Scarpetta.

Ever wanted to pick the brain of Zack Minasian, the Coordinator of Pro Scouting/Manager of Minor League Personnel for the Brewers? Well, here's your chance.

COMING UP

On deck, the Brewers resume interleague play at home against the White Sox. Jeff Suppan takes on Clayton Richard, game time 8:05. The game is on in HD on FSN.

Good luck trying to get to sleep when a big trade might be in the works. Drink up!

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 13:56:41 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

6 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers player Mike Cameron stands on the edge dugout during baseball action in the ninth inning of the Tuesday, June 2, 2009 game in Miami as the Florida Marlins win 10-3. (AP Photo/J Pat Carter)

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Some things to read while building a pizza oven.

What's next for Manny Parra, who was awful last night and has lost three straight starts in ugly fashion? As of this writing, 78% of voters at the JS think Parra should be removed from the rotation. Quevedo at the Buffet has gone ahead and gotten Manny the extended weather forecast for Nashville and a Grand Ole Opry schedule.

If Parra is bumped from the rotation, Mike Burns (who threw four scoreless innings last night) and Seth McClung will likely be considered to fill in. Mark DiFelice might have been an option, but he'll be leaving the team this weekend to attend his grandmother's funeral.

One of the eleven hits given up by Parra last night was Dan Uggla's 100th home run, making him the quickest second baseman to 100 HR in major league history. Uggla, though, didn't want to make a big deal out of it.

How many Brewers belong on the All Star team? Dave Cameron of FanGraphs filled out an NL roster, and has two Brewers on his team: Ryan Braun and Mike Cameron. I'd be pretty surprised if Trevor Hoffman doesn't make the squad, and one could certainly make a case for Yovani Gallardo, too.

First, they need to get out of Florida, but this is nice too: Teams in first place on June 1 make the playoffs two thirds of the time. Of course, the 2007 Brewers were in first place on June 1, too.

I'm awash in minor league notes today:

Jeremy Jeffress, the Brewers' top pitching prospect, responded well to a demotion to Brevard County, allowing just two hits and no runs in seven innings last night.
Baseball America has a list of minor leaguers who attempt a disproportionately high number of stolen bases, and Alcides Escobar (21-for-27) shows up on it. We don't frequently mention speed as part of his game, but if Alcides could develop into a 30-40 SB guy in the majors, it would add a fair amount to his value.
Chris Cody was called up to Nashville to fill Mike Burns' roster spot; At The Old Ball Game has frame-by-frame pictures of his delivery. (Now there's also video.)
Rattler Radio has a preview of tomorrow's Timber Rattlers promotion: the "Salute to Cows." If you're headed to the park tomorrow for this one, you might see me there.
Nashville plays Iowa at noon today, and you can listen live here. Chase Wright is starting for the Sounds.

The Brewers continue to prepare for the draft next week, their first draft without Jack Zduriencik. The Capital Times talked with Doug Melvin about the draft and his apparent dislike for the system. Baseball Reference has their draft preview up.

Meanwhile, Prince Fielder is on the cover of 2K Sports' The Bigs 2, and sat down for an interview to mumble something indecipherable about it.

Around the league:

Nationals: Catcher Jesus Flores has a stress fracture in his shoulder and may miss the rest of the season.
Rangers: Placed Josh Hamilton on the DL with a groin strain that may require surgery.
Reds: Placed Edinson Volquez on the DL with elbow tendinitis.

Milton Bradley may be headed back to the DL as well. Bradley left last night's game with a leg injury.

Yesterday I mentioned the possibility that the Nationals were getting ready to make a coaching change. They made one, but not the one I expected, firing pitching coach Randy St. Claire. Acting GM Mike Rizzo said the move was made due to a difference in philosophy, but Craig Calcaterra of The Hardball Times says St. Claire's laid back nature probably made it easier to fire him.

If Randy Johnson wins his 300th game but no one comes to see it, does it make a sound? Johnson will get his first shot at 300 wins in Washington, and Umpbump wants to know how many fans will show up.

It's still early, but the NL Central is significantly better than a lot of experts predicted. Dayn Perry, though, still ranks it third behind the AL East and Central.

Are you a roster rule junkie? If you are, you should check out this edition of Quid Pro Quo over at Inside the Majors. It's written by Bart Given, former assistant GM of the Blue Jays.

Finally, here are a bunch of obscure former Brewer notes:

Elvis Andrus was hit by a pitch yesterday, making him just the second player named Elvis to get hit. Until yesterday, former Brewer Elvis Pena was the only one.
It looks like Kevin Mench's adventures in Japan are drawing to a close. I doubt he'll be invited back.
Teddy Higuera surprised me by making this list of players who have thrown nine innings with three hits or less in three consecutive starts, joining Roger Clemens, Bib Gibson, Sandy Koufax and John Tsitouris.

Oh, and happy birthday to Robert Machado, who caught 51 games for the 2002 Brewers and turns 36 today.

Drink up.

The Milwaukee Brewers' Last Trade With Each Team

TheJay — Sat, 09 May 2009 15:48:24 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr - AP

A long time ago, in a league 98 miles away, this guy was part of the Brewers' last trade with the Yankees.

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One of my favorite parts of each year's team media guide is the page listing the Brewers' last trade with all the other major league teams. Maybe it's because it's so esoteric, maybe it's because of all the "some-team-wanted-him?" thoughts it prompts, or maybe it's the idea that for years Brewers and Mariners management had a bitter blood feud getting in the way of amicable trading. I don't know. Either way, let's take a trip down memory lane, transaction-style:

(note: PTBNL below stands for "Player to be Named Later," defined here)

The Milwaukee Brewers' Last Trade With...

Arizona Diamondbacks - 11/25/2006
Traded LHP Doug Davis, LHP Dana Eveland, and OF Dave Krynzel for C Johnny Estrada, RHP Claudio Vargas, and RHP Greg Aquino
Atlanta Braves - 12/7/2005
Traded RHP Wes Obermueller for RHP Dan Kolb
Chicago Cubs - 8/31/2004
Traded OF Ben Grieve for LHP Andy Pratt and cash
Cincinnati Reds - 1/14/2000
Traded OF Alex Ochoa for OF Mark Sweeney and a PTBNL (RHP Gene Altman)
Colorado Rockies - 12/13/2004
Traded RHP Marcos Carvajal in exchange for cash
Florida Marlins - 11/25/1996
Traded RHP Eddie Collins for LHP Joel Adamson
Houston Astros - 9/11/2007
Traded RHP Dennis Sarfate for cash
Los Angeles Dodgers - 3/26/2007
Traded OF Brady Clark and cash for RHP Elmer Dessens
New York Mets - 11/20/2007
Traded C Johnny Estrada for RHP Guillermo Mota
Philadelphia Phillies - 7/28/2006
Traded RHP Wilfrido Laureano for 3B David Bell
Pittsburgh Pirates - 12/7/2007
Traded RHP Marino Salas and RHP Kevin Roberts for RHP Salomon Torres
St. Louis Cardinals - 8/22/2003
Traded RHP Mike DeJean for two PTBNL (RHP Mike Crudale and RHP John Novinsky)
San Diego Padres - 7/25/2007
Traded LHP Joe Thatcher, RHP Will Inman, and LHP Steve Garrison for RHP Scott Linebrink
San Francisco Giants - 7/20/2008
Traded OF Darren Ford and LHP Steve Hammond for 2B Ray Durham
Washington Nationals - 9/4/2007
Traded a PTBNL (1B Andrew Lefave) for LHP Ray King

The AL teams are after the jump.

Baltimore Orioles - 7/16/1999
Traded a PTBNL (RHP Al Reyes) for RHP Rocky Coppinger
Boston Red Sox - 7/31/1998
Traded IF Eddy Diaz for RHP Joe Hudson
Chicago White Sox - 12/13/2004
Traded OF Scott Podsednik, RHP Luis Vizcaino and a PTBNL (IF Travis Hinton) for LF Carlos Lee
Cleveland Indians - 7/7/2008
Traded OF Matt LaPorta, LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and a PTBNL (OF Michael Brantley) for LHP CC Sabathia
Detroit Tigers - 7/1/2007
Traded RHP Jose Capellan for LHP Chris Cody
Kansas City Royals - 3/27/2007
Traded RHP Ben Hendrickson for a Marxist Empire
LAnaheim Angels - 7/31/2002
Traded OF Alex Ochoa and C Sal Fasano for C Jorge Fabregas and 2 PTBNL (RHP Pedro Liriano and IF John Raburn)
Minnesota Twins - 11/15/2002
Traded RHP Gerry Oakes and RHP Matt Yeatman for RHP Matt Kinney and C Javier Valentin
New York Yankees - 8/23/1996
Traded IF Pat Listach and LHP Graeme Lloyd for OF Gerald Williams and RHP Bob Wickman
Oakland Athletics - 5/23/2007
Traded RHP Alec Zumwalt for cash.
Seattle Mariners - 5/19/2005
Traded C Pat Borders for cash.
Tampa Bay Rays - 4/22/2008
Traded OF Gabe Gross for RHP Josh Butler
Texas Rangers - 7/28/2006
Traded OF Carlos Lee and OF Nelson Cruz for RHP Francisco Cordero, LHP Julian Cordero, OF Kevin Mench, and OF Laynce Nix
Toronto Blue Jays - 1/6/2006
Traded RHP Brian Wolfe for 3B Corey Koskie

This information comes out of the Brewers' 2009 Media Guide. I believe all listed trades include someone on the 40-man roster for one of the teams. Any errors are mine in transcription or not diligently checking MLB's work.

I Won't Resign Before This Struggle Ends; So I'll Construct This Sound Defense: An Advance Look at the Jays Defense in 2009

hugo — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 15:34:56 -0000

Not too long ago, we took a look at the Jays' pitchers for 2009, using tRA and tRA+. Now let's look at a related factor in preventing runs, defense. Defense in baseball is a fascinating thing - while it is clearly very important in determining a players' value and for a team in preventing runs, particularly at certain positions, there is no perfect way to measure it. We'll use a number of stats in this analysis of what can be expected of the Jays' defense in 2009.

In 2008, the Jays finished 2nd in the American League (to Tampa) in defensive efficiency, a stat that measures the skill of a team's defense in converting batted balls into outs. As one might imagine, this is an extremely important metric in that the sample size of batted balls over the course of a year is large enough that it is useful and it appropriately weighs the positions in which defense is most important (since those positions have to play more balls). As you can see, the quality of the Jays' defensive play was a big factor in the ability of Jays' pitchers to prevent runs.

That said, there is every reason to believe that the 2009 Jays will be even better.

Catcher:

Starting behind the plate, Rod Barajas was an above-average catcher defensively, as measured by things like passed balls and runners attempting to steal (12 runs above average per Baseball Prospectus, 6 runs above replacement per SBN sister Beyond the Boxscore. Gregg Zaun, who caught in 79 games as compared to Barajas' 98, was not. Although Barajas is a year older, starting the year with Big Rod (also his porn-star name) behind the dish should more than compensate for that. How we could see a decline: if Barajas gets hurt and Michael Barrett becomes the everyday catcher, he's never been known for his receiving prowess.

First Base:

At first base, Lyle Overbay had yet another excellent year in the field in 2008. Fielding Bible's +/- had him at +12 in 2008, and has him as the third-bast fielding first baseman in either league over the past 3 years. Beyond the Boxscore's fielding runs above average, UZR, and Baseball Prospectus all agree that Overbay is an excellent fielding first baseman. And none of these fielding systems account for one of Lyle's greatest defensive skills, scooping errant throws out of the dirt. Although Lyle is a year older, good-fielding first basemen tend to age well defensively. There's absolutely no reason to believe he'll be any less than excellent again in 2009. How we could see a decline: If Overbay doesn't start hitting lefties again, we could see a lot of Kevin Millar and/or Jose Bautista at first base against them. Millar hasn't been a good fielder at first since his Ruddy Hose days, and Bautista looked awful at first in limited action last year.

Second Base:

Moving over to second base, there's no doubt that Joe Inglett did an excellent job filling in last year when Aaron Hill went down to a concussion. Beyond the Box Score ranked him as the 15th most valuable second baseman in the game in 2009, which is quite good for an injury-fill in who didn't even get to play a full season. All the metrics (other than UZR, which for some reason, didn't like Joe at all) had Inglett as slightly above-average for a second baseman in the field, with Plus/Minus liking him best at +7. That said, Aaron Hill is in a different class defensively, The Fielding Bible ranked him best in all of baseball in 2007, his last full season, and 3rd best in all of baseball over the past 3 years (and that's including his injury-marred 2008) and UZR has always been a huge fan of his as well. If Hill is on the field, this is a substantial defensive improvement at an important position. How we could see a decline: I don't know, a string of injuries whereby Russ Adams is manning second?

Third Base:

At the hot corner, Scott Rolen enjoyed another excellent season with the glove in 2008 in the 115 games he was able to play. Only Adrian Beltre played a better third base than Rolen, according to Beyond the Boxscore, and +/- consistently ranks him as one of the best in the game, as does UZR. That said, Marco Scutaro did a lot of the filling-in for Rolen last season, and Marco was, if anything, even better at third base than was Rolen. The stats suggest that Scutaro has always been a quality-fielding third baseman. So while Rolen staying on the field would certainly increase the Jays' offensive productivity from the hot corner, it likely wouldn't make much of a difference fielding-wise. How we could see a decline: If Rolen isn't able to play, we may see a lot of Jose Bautista at third base. Bautista is not a good fielder at third.

Shortstop:

Moving on to the important six hole, Marco Scutaro played about 500 innings there in 2008, and the fielding stats agree that he did an excellent job. BtB had him at over 2 wins over average in the field (21 runs), while the Fielding Bible put him at +12 in 2008. UZR also rated Scutaro incredibly highly, 19.7/150 games, which agreed with BtB that he was worth about 2 full wins in the field above replacement. Now, Scutaro had never really been well-regarded as a defensive shortstop before, so those numbers appear suspect, but when all the fielding stats agree that is usually pretty good evidence, at least for that year. Scutaro essentially split playing time at SS three ways with John McDonald and David Eckstein, and it looks like Mac will be back and Eckstein won't. If Scutaro gets more playing time and plays like he did last year, defense at short would improve, since Eckstein was lousy with the glove in 2008 (exactly as far below average as Scutaro was above) and Mac was average at best (at least, if you look at +/-, FRAA, and UZR and not announcer comments). If Mac plays like he did in 2007 defensively, that'd also be a boost. How we could see a decline: If Scutaro gets hurt or proves last season was a total flash-in-the-pan. However, even if he is merely average with the glove but gets more of the playing time, things will stay the same from last season overall.

Centre Field:

In the outfield, Vernon Wells had a terrible 2008 with the glove by any metric. Or, to look at it another way, +/- though Wells was even better than gold-glove winner Nate McLouth (McLouth was rated by FB, by far, as the worst centre fielder in baseball, Wells was third-worst). This really hurt Wells' value. What's intersting, though, is Wells was never a bad centre-fielder defensively before. On the contrary, UZR thought Wells put together many solid seasons in a row before an average 2007 that was marred by injury. Now, it's possible that Wells has declined and is now a well-below average centrefielder. But it's also possible that either it was a 1-year blip or that Wells' hamstring injury slowed him down in the field. If Wells is recovered, one could see him bouncing back to at least average defensive levels. During the 60 or so games Wells missed, Alexis Rios got the bulk of the time in centre and he was outstanding. Fielding Bible had him at +11 and UZR thinks he is the best defensive outfielder, give or take, in all of baseball. If Wells plays more, that means less of Rios' outstanding work, unless Cito heeds our advice and starts flipping the two from time to time, or giving Wells some DH work, which would cut into the overall gain in defense one would expect. How we could see a decline: If Wells is healthy enough to stay in centrefield but continues the poor play we saw there in 2008.

Right Field:

Alex Rios played most of the Jays' right field innings and as we discussed, he was spectacular by any metric. When Rios was in centre, Brad Wilkerson saw most of the time in right and was quite decent in the field. Expect more excellence from Rios in 2009. How we could see a decline: Rios has to man centre and Travis Snider doesn't show well in right field. That's unlikely to be a significant decline at all, though.

Left Field:

In left, Adam Lind, Kevin Mench, Shannon Stewart, Brad Wilkerson, Joe Inglett, and Travis Snider all played double-digit games, with Lind getting the most work (71 games). Lind was a bad outfielder in 2008 after a surprisingly excellent showing in let in 2007. The others were all ok at a not-particularly-important defensive position. Travis Snider appears set to take most of the innings in leftfield in 2009 and while he hasn't looked great there this spring, one would think he would have to be better than Lind since the Jays are set to DH Lind most of the time and put Snider in left. I also think Lind should improve in the field, at least from 2008, so we're likely to see an overall improvement, if a small one. How we could see a decline: Jose Bautista has looked awful in the outfield in limited time this spring. Snider hasn't exactly looked good there either.

So, there you have it. At no position are we likely to see a defensive decline from 2008's excellent heights, and we are set for at least one big improvement at 2nd base. Other positions where the Jays could very likely improve are centrefield, shortstop, and catcher. These are, by far, the four most important defensive positions on the diamond, meaning the Jays are very likely to be even better defensively in 2009 than they were in 2008. At the very least, their excellent defense from last year should continue.

Thanks to Bad Religion for our ridiculously appropriate title.

The January 7 All-Star team

Adam J. Morris — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 16:20:50 -0000

Sometimes I do the "happy birthday" posts, but over at BP today, there's an item where they suggest that an All-Star team made up of players born on January 7 might be better than a team that could be put together from players born on any other one date.

And of course, it includes former Rangers Alfonso Soriano and Kevin Mench...

At the End of Every Hard-Earned Day People Find Some Reason to Believe

hugo — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 19:56:45 -0000

Though I am risking thewrath of the Drunks by quoting Springsteen (c'mon - Nebraska? one of the Boss' masterpieces, no?) I wanted to take this opportunity to point out some reasons to believe that things will not be as bad for the Jays as some seem to think. I'm not saying I'm expecting a World Series victory parade through the streets of T-Dot, but there are reasons to look forward to this season and not dread it. For example:

The Jays had the 2nd best run differential in the AL last season, and the 4th best in all of baseball. Run differential is the best indicator of team ability and it suggests that the 2008 Jays were very unlucky.
Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in the league (sorry, C.C., 10 career points of ERA+ against tougher competition) and is coming off one of his best seasons.
Jesse Litsch, who has been ridiculed as a #2 starter, has put together two seasons of 118 ERA+ before his age 24 birthday. In his second big league season, he brought his K/9 up by a full strikeout per nine while dropping his walk rate a full walk per nine. His velocity was up and his home runs allowed were down. He will have to prove himself again, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that this guy knows how to pitch.
Much is made of the fact that A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, and Marcum will be gone to start the season. However, McGowan only pitched 111 innings of so-so ball last season and he could easily contribute more to the team this season, making him an addition to, not a subtraction from, last season.
In that vein, though it was likely through no fault of his own, A.J. Burnett only put up a 105 ERA+ last season. it is not at all unthinkable that Casey Janssen, who was quite a good pitcher before a devastating labrum injury, could equal that if he is healthy, which he appears to be. Recently Jordan Bastian suggested that Janssen was a likely rotation candidate.
Brett Cecil is only 22 and looks great. Does he have the endurance for a full season as a starter this year? No. But is he at the talent level where he's ready to make a contribution to the major-league team as an above-average pitcher? It sure looks that way.
Marcel projection for Scott Richmond in 2009 is a 4.10 FIP. With the Jays defense, that could easily mean a sub 4 ERA for the Jays. Not a first option, but that's darn good for a 5th/6th starter.
David Purcey is poised to improve by as much as a full run of ERA as compared to his production from last season, based on his overall performance last season.
The Jays had one of the best team defenses in baseball last year and everyone will be back, with possible improvements due to Vernon Wells being healthier and Aaron Hill returning.
Jays' left fielders hit .258/.325/.384 last season. Travis Snider should have no trouble beating that, and significantly.
Jays' DHs hit ..247/.325/.418 last season. Even if Adam Lind doesn't improve at all from last season, he will be better than that.
Shannon Stewart (69 OPS+), Brad Wilkerson (68 OPS+), and Kevin Mench (81 OPS+) had a full season's worth of plate appearances between the three of them last season. God willing, that will not happen this year.
The Jays' offense scored 4.7 runs per game over the second half of the season. As of now it is looking like each member of that offense will be back with the Jays this season.
Scott Rolen hit .307/.354/.523, right in line with his career numbers, after adjusting his swing to compensate for decreased range of motion in his shoulder. Is he a sure thing to do so in 2009? - far from it, but it is certainly a reason to be optimistic. If he can put up those kind of numbers or anywhere close with his defense, that's a huge deal.
Supporting the Jays' young rotation will be last season's best bullpen in baseball, and by a large margain. All the key parts will be back this year, and adding Accardo and a full season of League could make this year's pen even better.
The offseason isn't over yet.

Again, I'm not saying the Jays will win it all this season, but these are some reasons to think they can. This was a good team last year and there are these reasons, and more, to think that it will be a good team in 2009.

The Last of Barrett's Privateers: Michael Barrett a Jay

hugo — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 21:05:58 -0000

Thanks to Stan Rogers, Maritime Provinces singer of sea shanties and folk songs, for today's title. We used to sing his songs all the time when I worked on a lobster boat in Maine.

The Jays wasted no time in responding to the Yankees $186 million dollar signing of Mark Teixiera with a blockbuster signing of their own, catcher Michael Barrett.

Seriously, though, I like the signing of Barrett. When healthy, he has been an above average offensive catcher and is coming in on a minor-league deal, which won't wed the Jays to him should Arencibia develop quickly, Barrett falter, or Thigpen show more than expected. Barrett had three excellent offensive seasons (for a catcher) in a row between 2004 and 2006 so there's certainly some upside. And he has 31 points of career OBP, and 12 points of OPS+, on Rod Barajas, so that's good. All in all, a decent if underwhelming piece of business. We're still waiting for the Jays to guarantee someone some major-league money.

In other news, the Red Sox appear to have reached an agreement with Brad Penny. We liked Penny on this site and the Sox will be paying him $5 million with a potential additional $3 million based on his performance. I'm sure many teams were in on Penny for $ 5 million / 1 year, so he had his choice of teams.

The very slightly less terrible half of one of the worst platoons in baseball history, Kevin Mench, signed for $1.8 million with the Hanshin Tigers. Of the Japanese League.

Finally, the Nationals signed our old friend Gustavo Chacin to a minor league deal. I know I wasn't the biggest fan of Chacin's pitching abilities (though I did stick up for the guy when he was inexplicably compared to Benito Mussolini) but best of luck, Gus. If you start for the Nats at home, I will go watch you pitch.

Mr. Melvin's Rangers

TheJay — Sat, 06 Dec 2008 04:45:51 -0000

An ongoing joke these days goes that whenever the Brewers sign a free agent or pick up a player on waivers, there's some connection between that player and Doug Melvin's time as the GM of the Texas Rangers. The latest example of this connection can be found in the minor league contract given to outfielder Jason Bourgeois. Bourgeois was selected by the Rangers in the 2nd round of the 2000 draft while Melvin was GM and spent five seasons in the Texas system. After bouncing around the minors for a couple more years he finally got a taste of the majors with the White Sox last season. He's been signed to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.

The Brewers have had Melvin-era Rangers contribute greatly since Melvin joined the Brewers after the 2002 season. Consider Gabe Kapler last year, Doug Davis, Dan Kolb, Francisco Cordero, and so on. So this begs the question, how many ex-Rangers has Doug Melvin picked up while in Milwaukee? Luckily, it's possible to use minor league rosters, draft reports, and other transactions information to put together a list.

Doug Melvin was hired as the General Manager of the Texas Rangers on October 10, 1994. He remained in that role until October 7, 2001. During that time he guided the team to three division championships, oversaw seven drafts, and was part of the massive Alex Rodriguez free agent signing. After spending much of the 2002 season with the Red Sox as a consultant, Melvin was hired as the 8th General Manager in Brewers history on September 25, 2002. I trust we're all sufficiently aware of his accomplishments in that role.

Of all the Rangers and Brewers to come and go under Melvin's leadership, it turns out only twenty-nine overlap. Of those, fifteen have played in the major leagues for the Brewers, no doubt increasing the perception of Melvin favoring Rangers re-treads. Here are the lucky twenty-nine, with those who reached the majors for Milwaukee in bold:

Name	Position	Years with Rangers	Years with Brewers
Justin Backsmeyer	RHP	1998-2001	2003
Jason Bourgeois	2B/OF	2000-2004	2009
Royce Clayton	SS	1998-2000	2003
Jason Conti*	OF	1998	2003
Francisco Cordero	RHP	2000-2006	2006-2007
Tim Crabtree	RHP	1998-2001	2003
Doug Davis	LHP	1996-2003	2003-2006
R.A. Dickey	RHP	1996-2006	2007
Richie Gardner	RHP	2001 draft, did not sign	2008
Rick Helling	RHP	1992-2001	2005-2006
Gabe Kapler	OF	2000-2002	2008
Dan Kolb	RHP	1995-2002	2003-2004, 2006
Mike Lamb	3B	1997-2003	2008
Chris Magruder	OF	2001	2004-2005
David Manning	LHP	1992-1998	2003
Ruben Mateo	OF	1994-2001	2007
Kevin Mench	OF	1999-2006	2006-2007
Chris Michalak*	LHP	1998, 2001-2002	2004
Warren Morris	RHP	1996-1998	2005
Laynce Nix	OF	2000-2006	2006-2008
Scott Podsednik	OF	1994-1995, 1998-2000	2003-2004
Andy Pratt	LHP	1998-2001	2004-2006
Erasmo Ramirez	LHP	2001-2006	2008
Reggie Rivard	RHP	2000-2003	2004
Julio Santana	RHP	1990-1998	2005
Scott Sheldon	IF	1998-2001	2004
Junior Spivey*	2B	1998	2004-2005
Keith Stamler	RHP	2000-2005	2005
Lee Stevens	1B	1996-1999	2003
Justin Thompson	LHP	2000-2005	2006

* - Conti, Michalak, and Spivey spent 1998 playing for the Rangers' AA affiliate even though they were Diamondbacks prospects. Arizona, as an expansion team, did not have an AA affiliate that season.

Okay, so maybe Conti and Spivey shouldn't count because they weren't ever truly Rangers farmhands despite spending a season with the Texas staff. Ditto for Gardner since Melvin probably only got a cursory report on him after the draft. Still, though, it's quite a list of Melvin-era Rangers turned Brewers.

For those interested in how Melvin acquired these guys while in Texas, here's the breakdown:

Thirteen of the players listed were drafted or signed their first contract while Melvin was the Rangers GM.
Seven (Clayton, Cordero, Crabtree, Kapler, Magruder, Ramirez, and Thompson) were acquired via trade.
Four (Helling, Manning, Podsednik, and Santana) were already with the Rangers when he took over.
As mentioned, Conti and Spivey were really Arizona prospects who were loaned to the Rangers system.
Scott Sheldon and Lee Stevens were signed as free agents.
Chris Michalak was a waiver claim.

Since drafting players from your previous organization isn't possible, naturally you begin to focus more on other ways to acquire them. Here's how Doug Melvin acquired his ex-Rangers as Brewers GM:

A full nineteen of the twenty-nine players were signed as free agents.
Six (Conti, Cordero, Mench, Nix, Pratt, and Spivey) were picked up through trades.
Richie Gardner, Mike Lamb, and Scott Podsednik were waiver claims.
David Manning was a Rule 5 pick in 2003.

So there you have it. Over ten percent (15 of 144) of the players to appear in the majors with Milwaukee since 2003 spent time under Melvin in Texas. Jason Bourgeois will attempt to continue the tradition next year. Looking at the list of minor league free agents, I get the feeling he won't be alone...