SB Nation - Corey Hart

MLB Trade Rumors: On the Beat with John Perrotto Version

raygu — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:00:37 -0000

by Eric Risberg - AP

about 1 month ago: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Chad Billingsley takes a break on the mound after the San Francisco Giants scored their third run in the fourth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009. San Francisco won the game 7-2; Billingsley was the losing pitcher. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

View full size photo »

Every Sunday, John Perrotto from Baseball Prospectus puts out an article talking about possible trade rumors and signings, along with analysis of the goings on around baseball. Yesterday's article was chock full of names who could be available in trade talks this offseason, with some suprise names.

Let's take a look after the jump:

Here is a list of names who could be available in trade talks per Perrotto:

Chad Billingsley Kerry Wood

Dave Bush Bobby Jenks

Jeremy Guthrie Pat Burrell

Adrian Gonzalez Nelson Cruz

Heath Bell Ryan Ludwick

Glen Perkins Dan Uggla

Kenshin Kawakami Juan Pierre

Derek Lowe Ryan Doumit

Javier Vazquez Dioner Navarro

Carlos Zambrano Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Matt Capps Geovany Soto

Christian Guzman Elijah Dukes

Corey Hart David Dejesus

Poll

What name on the Perrotto list is most surprising?

The Weekend Linkfest!

NoahJ — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 12:00:47 -0000

Some things to read while being a real man or while putting up your holiday decorations.

I would like to preface this by kind of letting everyone know what is going on. As KL posted friday, Morineko, FtJ and I will be your new weekend editors. What that means is we will be hanging around and posting a weekend news post to keep things alive on the weekends. KL asked us to "make it our own" and do what we'd like with the post. I, personally, will probably be following the same basic format as the Frosty Mugs, though I can't speak on whether the other two will be doing anything radically different. Hopefully we can get it so it is nearly as active on Saturday and Sunday as it is Monday-Friday. If there is anything you would like somewhat different, at least from me, feel free to voice whatever is on your mind.

And if you are arriving late today, be sure to check out Jordan's and Jeff's excellent-as-always posts below this one. Both posts relate to the JJ Hardy/Carlos Gomez trade, about which I have an abundance of articles, so let's get right into the bulletpoints for that:

The Bucky Channel likes the trade. However, they also think Gomez should lead off, which is probably a bad idea.
Wisconsin's Sports Tap also is a fan of the trade, and gives a pretty good look at what this means for the Brewers.
Carlos Gomez says that he'll hit in Milwaukee with a full time job
The Official Site has an article about Alcides Escobar, along with Hardy's thoughts on the player Escobar is and will be.
Casa De Machado says their good-bye to JJ and also thinks that Corey Hart will be traded with Jody Gerut taking over in right field.
Milwaukee's Own Brew Crew Fans likes the trade and likens Carlos Gomez to another player with what seems to be a similar skillset, Michael Bourn
Miller Park Drunk has a big roundup of what various places are saying about the trade.

Tom H also sees the Bourn comparison. I have also seen/heard comparisons to Jose Reyes in various places as well.

There are other links, but there is nothing really to differ them from the rest. Most people either like the trade or are at least OK with it. I only saw a couple places where the author hated the trade.

In other news, it sounds like Mark Mulder will probably be a Brewer sooner than later. We;ve been hearing that for a while, but I haven't heard of any displeasure about the Brewers taking that risk. As long as there is no big guaranteed contract, I don't really know how you could be upset with that.

Baseball Daily Digest has a very good article up about new Brewers pitching coach Rick Peterson, his time in Oakland, and his work with their "big three". It's definitely worth a read.

The Arizona Fall League's Rising Stars game was yesterday, and the only Brewer, Mark Rogers, didn't get a chance to pitch in the game. Here is the gameday with the boxscore.

Roguejim has a fanpost about pertinent off season dates. Circling the Bases has an even more complete list full of offseason dates.

Circling the Bases also says that the Phillies will be in the market for a third basemen to replace Pedro Feliz. Would they have any pitching the Brewers could get for McGehee or Gamel?

Several different sites have been ranking the New York Yankees World Series winners. I will link to the Hardball Times version because they have links to several others if you are interested.

Other than all that, I just have a few quick, interesting links:

If you don't like ESPN, Brewed Sports gives you another reason to dislike the World Leader.

BizofBaseball makes the case against implementing a salary cap in baseball.

In Cuba, there was a case where the Umpires using instant replay might still have led to the wrong decision.

And I don't know what the holiday was, but the city of New York had some sort of parade. Something to do with the Yankees I think? I don't know, Jay-Z was there, so I am guessing it must have been important.

That's about it. Unless of course you want to sign Seth McClung up for some anger management classes.

Taking a look at some early projections

KLSnow — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:35:51 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Can Rickie Weeks bounce back and have a strong 2010?

Browse more photos »

Earlier this week, ACTA Sports sent me a preview of the hitter projections from 2010's Bill James Handbook. Obviously, it's still really early, but I found some of the projections interesting, so I thought I'd pass them along to you.

Let's start with your likely leadoff hitter for the 2010 Brewers:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Rickie Weeks	425	.259	.357	.449	80	48	23	5	16	56	100

It's probably worth noting that even Bill James, who tends to be relatively optimistic, doesn't project Weeks to play a full season in 2009 (he has him at 114 games). Even so, these numbers are probably a little optimistic. The .259 average is a slight drop from 2009, but the .357 OBP is actually 17 points higher. Weeks was off to a hot start slugging in 2009, posting a .517 slugging percentage, but this .449 projection would be easily the second highest of his career.

Other potential second basemen:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Felipe Lopez	565	.281	.352	.400	79	58	31	3	10	60	104
Craig Counsell	342	.246	.337	.327	45	25	15	2	3	42	51

While James has Lopez playing a full season, he projects to be less productive, losing 55 OPS points to Weeks. This line for Counsell looks fair, although the Brewers are likely in trouble if they actually need him for 342 ABs.

Follow the jump for lots more projections!

Both because he could feasibly bat #2 and because he's possibly the most interesting projection:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Alcides Escobar	504	.288	.326	.377	75	48	22	4	5	28	77

If Escobar can put up this kind of season and still play the level of defense we've come to expect from him, I'll be overjoyed. James also projects him to steal 42 bases in 54 attempts, adding roughly 18 bases to his value. The walk total may look low, but it's actually a bit optimistic: Escobar only averaged 23.3 walks per season over six years in the minors. Escobar's primary source of value will almost certainly always be his glove, but if he can put up a .700 OPS in the majors then he'll be a significantly above average contributor at short.

The other option, of course, is J.J. Hardy:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
J.J. Hardy	528	.254	.320	.422	70	68	28	2	19	50	92

This isn't as strong of a bounce back as I was expecting to see. Certainly, Hardy adds a little bit of power over Escobar, but his OBP is actually a little lower, and his base-stealing ability is completely negligible (James projects Hardy to go 1-for-1 stealing bases). These numbers are roughly the midpoint between Hardy's very good 2008 season and extremely disappointing 2009.

Moving on, I think it's pretty safe to assume Ryan Braun will be batting third and playing left field on Opening Day, unless Anthony Witrado is promoted to GM:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Ryan Braun	615	.315	.378	.593	112	119	42	6	39	53	112

Those are MVP-quality numbers if ever I've seen them. Braun projects to be an elite player again next season, and if the award doesn't go to Albert Pujols (projected to go .333/.443/.642 with 44 home runs), Braun might have to be considered the frontrunner. These numbers would set new career highs in slugging, RBI, doubles and home runs, while tying a career low in strikeouts.

And, unless something changes before spring, Prince Fielder will likely be hitting behind Braun:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Prince Fielder	601	.286	.393	.574	103	124	37	2	44	96	135

With these numbers, Fielder would still be one of the National League's premier hitters, but his production would actually decline a bit from 2009's numbers in all three slash stats, RBI, home runs and walks. Fielder won't turn 26 until May, so it seems strange to project him to decline, even slightly. With that said, he'll still be one of the NL's elite hitters.

The way things stack up at present, the leading candidate to bat fifth and play third base is likely Casey McGehee:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Casey McGehee	492	.272	.328	.429	63	76	30	1	15	41	86

Like many of us, James expects McGehee to come back down to Earth a little, but these projections still have him as a solid-to-slightly above average third baseman. All three slash lines are significant steps down from the .301/.360/.499 numbers he put up in 2009.

The other option, of course, is some guy the Brewers have on the end of the bench:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mat Gamel	455	.277	.354	.464	65	73	28	3	17	53	142

These projections, especially the OBP, seem a little high, but Gamel projects to outperform McGehee in nearly every way en route to a .818 OPS. This is yet another piece of evidence to be used in the argument that the Brewers should sell high on McGehee to make room for Gamel in the lineup.

(I know at least a few of you would probably like to see a projection for Adam Heether here, but he doesn't appear in James' projections. Sorry.)

Until told otherwise, I'm going to continue to assume Mike Cameron will return to play center field and bat sixth:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mike Cameron	561	.237	,328	.428	79	74	32	3	23	71	171

These numbers aren't the best argument for opening the checkbook to keep him around. Clearly, James is expecting age to catch up with Cameron, who would lose 13 points in average, 14 in OBP, 24 in slugging, and strike out over 170 times for just the second time in his 16 year career. These numbers still aren't terrible, and combined with good defense Cameron is still likely an above average center fielder. But, with that said, paying anything like his $10 million 2009 salary for performance at this level is a questionable decision.

Dropping all the way to the seventh spot in the lineup in right field, here's Corey Hart:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Corey Hart	533	.272	.332	.467	78	76	37	5	19	43	110

This would actually be a pretty nice bounce-back season for Hart, with his highest batting average, slugging percentage and run total since 2007. Entering his age 28 season, it's possible Hart will never be the player we all thought he might be after hitting .295/.353/.539 three years ago, but these numbers would be acceptable for a corner outfielder.

While we're on the subject, here are the projections for some other outfielders on the Brewer roster:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Frank Catalanotto	110	.273	.360	.418	14	12	8	1	2	10	14
Jody Gerut	162	.259	.326	.420	23	20	9	1	5	14	25

I'm not sure either of these stat lines suggest either of these guys should play everyday, but they project to be solid fourth and fifth outfielders next season, and if it won't cost too much to do so, I'd be fine with bringing both back. Thankfully, there's no projection for Corey Patterson.

I'm preparing myself for disappointment by operating under the assumption that Jason Kendall will continue to catch and tie up the eighth spot in the batting order again next season.

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Jason Kendall	409	.254	.338	.320	43	35	19	1	2	37	44

I'm not sure what James is smoking here, because even this lackluster projection seems a little too high. In two seasons as a Brewer, Kendall has hit ..244/.329/.315, and I'm not sure he can even repeat that at age 36, much less improve upon all three numbers. Kendall is likely getting the benefit of the doubt based on an extensive major league career, but recent evidence would suggest he's sliding downhill, not mounting a comeback. I'm not sure where one finds the data to support even a small offensive resurgence from a weak-hitting 36 year old catcher.

Interestingly enough, James' projections don't have Mike Rivera, but they do have Angel Salome:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Angel Salome	240	.296	.345	.442	30	39	15	1	6	18	45

This is much higher than I would have projected Salome, who I think might be the third best of the three internal options to replace Kendall next season (Sadly, Jonathan Lucroy is also not projected). With that said, Salome is projected to out-OPS Kendall by 129 points. Remember what it was like when the Brewers had a catcher that wasn't an offensive black hole? Me either. I'd love to see what that's like.

So, what do you think of these projections?

Probably misusing MLE: Where could the Brewers have done better?

KLSnow — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 14:00:20 -0000

Looking for some idle speculation on the first Brewer-free Sunday afternoon since February? Here's something to play with.

Because of Jeff's brilliant work over at Minor League Splits, we can take any Brewer above rookie ball's minor league stats and get their MLE (major league equivalent), a baseline estimate of how they would have performed in the major leagues this season.

So without further adieu, here's a look at how Brewer minor leaguers might have performed in the majors in 2009, and how it compares to the players the Brewers actually used in their place.

Catcher

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Jonathan Lucroy	Huntsville (AA)	.267/.377/.416	.219/.307/.327	.634
Angel Salome	Nashville (AAA)	.288/.338/.420	.249/.285/.342	.627
J.R. Hopf	Huntsville (AA)	.249/.318/.363	.206/.258/.291	.549
Corey Kemp	Wisconsin (A-)	.269/.364/.379	.182/.239/.245	.484
Carlos Corporan	Nashville (AAA)	.217/.262/.285	.192/.230/.250	.480

Brewers used: Jason Kendall, who hit .241/.331/.305 (.636 OPS), and Mike Rivera, who hit .228/.326/.342 (.668 OPS)

This is likely the most obvious position where you can make a solid argument that one of the minor leaguers should have played over the guy the Brewers trotted out there. Kendall had a nice finish to 2009, batting .271/.370/.391 after August 7, but still only out OPS'ed the hypothetical performance of Jonathan Lucroy by two points, with Angel Salome not far behind him.

Beyond Lucroy and Salome, it's a long way down to the next level, though. Corey Kemp's 2009 performance was pretty impressive in Wisconsin, but he's easily the third best catcher in the system above rookie ball right now, and he's still a long way away.

Follow the jump for the other positions!

First Base

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Joe Koshansky	Nashville (AAA)	.218/.319/.441	.189/.267/.358	.625
Erick Almonte	Nashville (AAA)	.295/.367/.365	.253/.307/.301	.608
Kevin Melillo	Huntsville (AA)	.249/.344/.392	.207/.280/.309	.589
Steffan Wilson	Brevard Co. (A+)	.272/.352/.420	.208/.266/.308	.574
Brock Kjeldgaard	Wisconsin (A-)	.248/.340/.454	.167/.221/.278	.499

Clearly, none of these guys are even comparable to Prince Fielder, who posted a 1.014 OPS this season.

In fact, the complete lack of a viable first baseman in the upper levels of the minors is a little startling. If something were to happen to Fielder, the best internal options to replace him would almost certainly be in the big leagues now: Mat Gamel and/or Casey McGehee.

With that said, Steffan Wilson's performance in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League is notable, and Brock Kjeldgaard had a decent offensive season overshadowed by the fact that he led his league in strikeouts for the second straight season.

Second Base

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Hernan Iribarren	Nashville (AAA)	.307/.360/.396	.269/.310/.335	.645
Shane Justis	Huntsville (AA)	.271/.339/.376	.225/.278/.309	.587
Eric Farris	Brevard Co. (A+)	.302/.344/.388	.238/.270/.304	.574
Brett Lawrie	Wisconsin (A-)	.275/.342/.438	.192/.232/.282	.514

These are the only four players above rookie ball who played a full season with second base as their primary position. The Brewers used Rickie Weeks (.857 OPS) and Felipe Lopez (.810 OPS) primarily at second, and obviously there's no comparison.

The upside is pretty low among the upper level guys: Iribarren had a nice season in AAA, but likely projects as little more than a utility/backup type in the majors. 2009 was Justis' first season as a Brewer. He's 26 years old in AA.

With that said, there's a lot of upside in the lower levels. Eric Farris had a very good season for Brevard County, and added 70 steals in 76 attempts. With that said, he's been leapfrogged in the organization by Brett Lawrie, who continues his rapid ascent toward the big leagues.

Third Base

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Adam Heether	Nashville (AAA)	.300/.398/.506	.256/.334/.409	.743
Mat Gamel	Nashville (AAA)	.281/.368/.479	.242/.309/.388	.697
Taylor Green	Huntsville (AA)	.267/.344/.372	.220/.276/.308	.584
Zelous Wheeler	Brevard Co. (A+)	.263/.365/.383	.199/.273/.283	.556
Juan Sanchez	Wisconsin (A-)	.249/.308/.318	.172/.207/.221	.428

The Brewers used Casey McGehee (.859 OPS), Craig Counsell (.766 OPS), Bill Hall (.606 OPS) and Mat Gamel (.760 OPS) at third.

Behold Adam Heether. While most of the talk about Brewer minor leaguers this season revolved around guys like Alcides Escobar, Gamel, Salome, Lucroy and Lawrie, Heether quietly outhit all of them. And while Craig Counsell had an incredible and unlikely bounce back season, Heether's MLE line is nearly comparable. He also played five positions this season to keep his bat in the lineup while Mat Gamel played third.

Behind him and Gamel, Taylor Green had a season to forget, and Zelous Wheeler's ability to get on base made him valuable in the Manatees' lineup. Sanchez was one of the last players drafted in the minor league phase of last year's Rule 5 draft, and played all over the diamond for Wisconsin and Brevard Co. despite never having played above the Gulf Coast League.

Shortstop

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Alcides Escobar	Nashville (AAA)	.298/.351/.411	.259/.301/.345	.646
Sergio Miranda	Brevard Co. (A+)	.297/.355/.380	.229/.272/.292	.564
Yohannis Perez	Huntsville (AA)	.262/.314/.353	.221/.259/.287	.546
Michael Garciaparra	Huntsville (AA)	.216/.302/.261	.184/.249/.223	.472
Brent Brewer	Brevard Co. (A+)	.226/.290/.291	.176/.224/.231	.455

The Brewers used J.J. Hardy (.659 OPS) and Alcides Escobar (.701 OPS)

Alcides Escobar's AAA performance and J.J. Hardy's service time status combined to be just enough to get Escobar into the big leagues for good back in August, and we'll see what happens from there.

Meanwhile, there's not much in the system behind Escobar. The next viable shortstop prospect behind him may very well be 2009 draft pick Josh Prince, who hit .263/.373/.313 between Helena and Wisconsin this season and stole 38 bases in 50 attempts. The Brewers have to be close to running out of patience with Brent Brewer, who repeated Brevard Co. in 2009 and was actually significantly worse in his second attempt.

Outfielders

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Brendan Katin	Nashville (AAA)	.244/.306/.506	.214/.262/.413	.675
Drew Anderson	Huntsville (AA)	.290/.368/.439	.241/.303/.350	.653
Logan Schafer	Brevard Co. (A+)	.312/.374/.441	.242/.288/.335	.623
Caleb Gindl	Brevard Co. (A+)	.284/.366/.469	.217/.277/.345	.622
Adam Stern	Huntsville (AA)	.280/.350/.374	.233/.288/.303	.591
John Raburn	Huntsville (AA)	.263/.370/.345	.218/.301/.267	.568
Chuck Caufield	Huntsville (AA)	.248/.312/.337	.210/.259/.280	.539
Lee Haydel	Brevard Co. (A+)	.278/.307/.343	.219/.241/.262	.503
Freddy Parejo	Huntsville (AA)	.239/.280/.314	.204/.237/.259	.496
Michael Vass	Wisconsin (A-)	.240/.307/.384	.164/.204/.249	.453

The Brewers used Ryan Braun (.938 OPS), Mike Cameron (.795), Corey Hart (.753), Frank Catalanotto (.728) and Jody Gerut (.672) in the outfield this season. And if they'd had to dig much farther into the organizational depth, it likely would have been a problem. Brendan Katin can mash a mistake, but his exceptionally low plate discipline (35 walks, 164 strikeouts, .305 OBP) will likely keep him from ever being a serious prospect.

Meanwhile, the top two outfielders in the Brewer system might both have played for Brevard County this season, as Logan Schafer won the FSL batting title and Caleb Gindl provided the power behind the Brewers' most successful affiliate this season. Among the top prospects, Schafer is also the only true center fielder: Adam Stern also played primarily in center this season, but was terrible defensively.

Lorenzo Cain, meanwhile, had a terrible 2009 season, and didn't even make the top ten to appear on this list. Before suffering a knee injury and after returning, Cain posted a .213/.287/.317 line between multiple levels this season, posting a .448 MLE OPS. Hopefully Cain reports to camp healthy next spring and prepared for a huge bounce back season.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 13:51:47 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Remember that one time Jason Kendall hit a home run? And that other time? Miller Park Drunk does.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while feeling old.

There's not much out there in Brewer news today, which leaves us plenty of time to join Miller Park Drunk in looking ahead to the Journal Sentinal's grades for the 2009 Crew. I particularly enjoyed the notes on Jason Kendall, Felipe Lopez and Corey Hart.

Meanwhile, on the rumor front, the Tigers could be considering trading Curtis Granderson, and the Brewers are one team that could have some interest. Granderson has three years and $23.75 million left on his current deal, (plus an option for a fourth at $13 million or more) but those salaries are backloaded: he'll make just $5.5 million in 2010.

Granderson hit a career high 30 home runs in 2009, but his doubles, triples and all three numbers in his slash line declined. He posted a .913 OPS in 2007, but dropped to .858 last season and .790 this season, which was actually worse than Mike Cameron's .795. The Braves and Cubs also have possible interest.

In the minors:

Jonathan Lucroy (13th) was the only Brewer to appear in Baseball America's ranking of the top 20 prospects in the Southern League. Lucroy hit .267/.380/.418 for Huntsville, and set career highs in doubles and walks.
Wisconsin Sports Tap's website is down at the moment, but they've got a nice review of Brevard County's 2009 season and the successes and disappointments that came with it.

The Padres loaded up the transaction wire yesterday, releasing pitchers Cha Seung Baek and Shawn Hill and outfielder Cliff Floyd. All three spent most of the season on the disabled list. Baek is easily the most interesting name on that list: here's a scouting report Padres Assistant GM Paul DePodesta wrote about him back in May.

Meanwhile, the playoffs have created a grand stage on which Major League Baseball can show off the failings of some of its "elite" umpires. C.B. Bucknor's performance in last night's Angels-Red Sox game led to a poem, Jon Heyman speculating that C.B. may stand for "consistently bad," and an editing war that led to the locking of his Wikipedia page.

The playoffs also always seem to give us some strange conversations to look in on. For example, here's one on the clutchiness of Ronnie Belliard.

The TBS broadcasts this week have occasionally been difficult to watch, but in a couple of cases they've been downright impossible. TBS is blaming the angle of the sun for some technical difficulties that interrupted satellite feeds during the afternoon Wednesday. There were also some audio issues Wednesday, but they only interrupted Bob Brenly. That's an improvement, not a difficulty.

How much of a pitcher's value is tied to his hitting? Jeremy Greenhouse of The Hardball Times attempts to tackle that question by looking at value added or removed at the plate. Dan Haren was actually worth seven runs at the plate this season, which was roughly 15% of his overall value. This could be an important fact to consider when pondering the value of a pitcher like Ben Sheets, who pitches very well but likely costs himself runs both at the plate and in the field.

Happy birthday today to Randy Lerch, who won 15 games for the Brewers between 1981 and 1982 and turns 55 today, and to Bill Pulsipher, who spent parts of the 1998 and 1999 seasons as a Brewer and turns 36.

I know that's not much but it's all I have for you today, unless you're interested in a Dutch sausage.

Drink up.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 14:10:57 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Ryan Braun isn't going anywhere. Let it go.

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Some things to read while getting a craving.

Doug Melvin held his post-mortem press conference yesterday, and while this comment in yesterday's Mug has the full list of topics discussed, some jumped out more than others:

Melvin does not expect to pursue the possibility of trading Ryan Braun or Prince Fielder this offseason, but the team also has yet to make a move to lock up Fielder long term.
Trevor Hoffman's contract, previously reported as being worth $8 million for 2010, is actually worth $7.5 million, plus a $500k buyout for 2011. That link also has a list of the incentives that would increase the buyout and potential 2011 salary.
Adam McCalvy also has notes on Jeff Suppan (not guaranteed a spot next season), Ben Sheets (may still be on the radar) and J.J. Hardy (unlikely to return).

Hopefully yesterday's press conference will be the end of speculation about the possibility of trading Braun. I usually avoid them, but I've heard the topic came up again in Anthony Witrado's chat this week, and Rubie Q is setting the odds on the origin of the rumor.

Even if Fielder isn't likely to be dealt, he's one of four faces on Amazin' Avenue's Offseason Met Rushmore. The Mets certainly seem like a team that would have interest in Fielder, but I don't think they have enough young pitching, which the Brewers would almost certainly need to get back.

Meanwhile, the Nats might be a fit for J.J. Hardy. FJB has a list of possible trade scenarios that all end with Hardy in DC. John Lannan is one of the players mentioned and if the Nats are offering him, the Brewers should be listening. Lannan just turned 25, has posted nearly 400 innings with an ERA under 4 over the last two seasons, and is under team control for four more years.

Elsewhere on the starting pitching front, Jorge Says No! has a hypothetical deal: Corey Hart to the Braves for Kenshin Kawakami. Kawakami is 34 years old, but has two relatively cheap years remaining on his deal with the Braves and posted a 3.86 ERA in 156.1 innings this season. I'd make that trade.

Chris Bosio's charity golf outing, which I mentioned earlier this week, is in Neenah today and it looks like the weather will cooperate. Leading up to the event, Bosio sat down with Brett Christoperson of the Appleton Post-Crescent to discuss the 2009 season at length.

Do you still have some residual bitterness from the season that was? Then you're the perfect candidate to participate in Brew City Sports' Hendies tournament. I went with chalk in most of the early round matchups, but there might be an upset brewing in the Bando division.

In the minors:

Matt Hagen of The Hardball Times handed out postseason accolades for the Florida State League yesterday, and named Caleb Gindl the league's top hitting prospect. Gindl's small frame continues to be his biggest challenge, but if he continues to hit people will have to take notice.
The instructional league season is just about over, with Eric Arnett tweeting that he'll be home in three days. There's not much coverage taking place in Arizona: that's the only news that's come out of instructional league in over a week.

With the regular season officially concluded, Andy Seiler has the 2010 draft order through the first three rounds. The Brewers are currently slated to draft 14th, 47th and 78th overall. The 47th pick is the Brewers' top unprotected pick, meaning it's the one they'd lose if they sign a Type A free agent. They're also likely to gain picks between #17 and the middle of the second round when Felipe Lopez and/or Mike Cameron sign elsewhere this offseason. The Brewers could also receive compensation picks for Braden Looper, Jason Kendall and David Weathers, but would have to offer arbitration to be eligible, and all three of those players would likely accept the offer and make significantly more than they're worth.

Yes, Ken Macha is returning for 2010, but here's a reminder that it could always be worse: Ned Yost is being mentioned as a candidate for managerial openings in both Houston and Cleveland. I think I speak for a lot of us when I say it'd be great to have him back in the division.

Speaking of managers, Hal McCoy has a great profile of likely NL Manager of the Year Jim Tracy, chronicling his two years in Pittsburgh and sudden resurrection in Colorado.

Happy birthday today to Bob Skube, who had cups of coffee with the Brewers in 1982 and 1983 and turns 52.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you'd like to read about 2002-2003 Beloit Snapper Jon Steitz's dad winning the Nobel Prize.

Drink up.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 14:39:55 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Curry - AP

Trevor Hoffman delivers a pitch during the ninth inning Sunday, in what won't be his final Brewer appearance after all.

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Some things to read while staking your claim.

If the Brewers keep up this pace, they'll have all of their offseason work done by Thanksgiving: One day into the offseason, the Brewers have one problem solved, as Trevor Hoffman signed a one year deal worth $8 million with a team option for 2011 (FanShot). Tom H. is reporting that both the option year and potential buyout contain escalators tied to games finished in 2010.

Here's some reaction around the web:

Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times thinks it was a logical move.
Jorge Says No! thinks the Brewers overspent and could have better used the money on other priorities.
Rob Neyer notes that Hoffman's BABIP has been very low over the course of his career, but that's also true of many other premier closers.
Dave Allen of FanGraphs notes that Hoffman has a lot of "rise" on his fastball, which leads to more infield flies and a lower BABIP.

While Trevor Hoffman was signing his new deal, the list of Brewers awaiting surgery continued to grow. On top of Casey McGehee (knee), Craig Counsell (knee) and Braden Looper (knee), it was announced yesterday that Manny Parra will have arthroscopic surgery to "clean up" the AC joint and "remove some friction" in his shoulder (FanShot). The issue didn't prevent Parra from making his final starts of the 2009 season, but that doesn't keep me from wondering if it should have.

Meanwhile, there was good news on the medical front for Corey Hart, who met with a hand specialist and received confirmation that his injured fingers were sprained, not fractured. He should be fine in a month's time.

BBWAA ballots for postseason awards are due in on the final day of the regular season (which, as it turns out, is now today), but it will still be several weeks before we find out where Prince Fielder stands in the race for NL MVP. Walkoff Walk compared Fielder's 2009 season to some of the best years at the plate in Brewer history, and ranked him third on their NL MVP ballot. Meanwhile, Quevedo at the Buffet makes a passionate case against trading Fielder this offseason.

Speaking of awards, Yovani Gallardo finished second in the balloting for NL Comeback Player of the Year, far behind Chris Carpenter.

With Trevor Hoffman back in the fold, the Brewers have one less opportunity to get compensation picks for free agents this offseason, but they still could cash in: The latest Elias rankings are out, and they have Felipe Lopez as a Type A free agent, along with Jason Kendall, Mike Cameron, Braden Looper and David Weathers as Type Bs. Kendall did not receive any bonus points for leading the majors in beer plunks.

MLB Trade Rumors also has a list of players who could be non-tendered this offseason, and Dave Bush, Seth McClung and Jody Gerut are on the list. The three of them would likely command around $8 million in arbitration for next season.

Seth McClung doesn't sound very optimistic about the possibility of coming back in 2010, but BCB has started a Facebook petition in an effort to convince the Brewers to bring him back. As of this morning, it had already climbed over 20 members. Let's push that number a little higher today.

Attendance at Miller Park was down about 1% this season, but that's better news than you'd think: According to the chart at that link, 19 major league teams saw a larger decline in attendance this season, with eleven teams losing more than 10% and four teams losing over 20%.

Alcides Escobar can probably be penciled in as the Opening Day starter at short for the 2010 Brewers, but does he have a brighter future than Washington's Ian Desmond? FakeTeams has the argument for both sides, and a poll.

In the minors:

BaseballHQ has scouting reports for the Arizona Fall League, and ranks Mark Rogers and Rob Wooten as the second and third best pitchers on the Peoria Javelinas. AFL play opens one week from today.
Jonathan Mayo is working on a formula to determine the minor league pitcher of the year, and Evan Anundsen checked in at #8 on his list. He posted a 2.69 ERA and struck out 118 in 130.1 innings in Brevard County this season.

As I just mentioned, the AFL starts soon with other winter leagues soon to follow, but if those aren't enough for you the Wisconsin Sports Tap has an offseason survival guide. Hopefully we'll start the countdown to spring training soon, but the report date for pitchers and catchers has yet to be determined.

Need a mental warmup this morning? It took me 30 seconds to name the seven ways a batter can safely reach first base. I got the hard ones first and spent 20 seconds with a brain cramp before remembering an obvious one.

Is anyone out there a member of SABR? After reading Wezen-ball's pitch this morning (and noting SABR's discounted membership for anyone under 30) I decided to give it a shot for a year.

How much does defense impact a mediocre pitcher? Fungoes uses Jeff Suppan as a teaching tool to answer that question. If you're making a list of proper uses for Suppan, "teaching tool" and "batting practice" should both appear above "starting pitcher."

And, from one bad contract to another: Dugout Central chronicles the life and times of Bill Hall.

Happy birthday today to Jerry Stephenson, who appeared in two games for the Seattle Pilots and turns 66, and Valerio de los Santos, who appeared in 183 games as a Brewer and turns 37.

Drink up.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 14:14:50 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Chris Smith holds a towel to his face after getting hit by a ground ball as head trainer Roger Caplinger guides him to the dugout in the eighth inning Thursday. Seth McClung said Smith will be ok.

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Some things to read while working on your Halloween costume.

I'll be honest here: When I woke up this morning, I was most excited about reading what Plunk Everyone had to say about Jason Kendall's 248th career HBP yesterday. Now that I know that yesterday's plunking was Kendall's first ever in October, I can continue my day.

I certainly wasn't excited about having to discuss another awful outing from Manny Parra. With that said, Parra did manage to strike out five batters in his brief outing, making him just the fourth pitcher ever to allow five hits, five walks and strike out five batters in less than three innings pitched. You're forgiven if you can't remember the careers of the other three: Jose Antonio Nunez did it in 2001, Chris Clemons did it in 1997, and Chris Short did it in 1961. Short later went on to win 20 games - the other two were out of the majors for good within a year.

Parra was in the clubhouse and turned off the TV instead of watching the Rockies celebrate clinching a postseason berth yesterday. Fielder stayed in the dugout to watch it.

No one else has said anything about it (that I've seen) at this point, but Seth McClung said Chris Smith had some soreness and a busted lip but was otherwise ok after taking a ground ball of his face in the eighth inning yesterday. Glad to hear he's ok after a scary moment.

Meanwhile, McClung's recent comments on Twitter have drawn the attention of Adam McCalvy and other members of the media, who asked him about them before yesterday's game. At least McClung finally got to pitch yesterday, and struck out all four batters he retired.

Corey Hart is still not expected to play this weekend after suffering compression fractures in his fingers on Tuesday. Looking back, Ken Macha wondered if the emphasis on Hart's plate discipline negatively impacted his power, but Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times disagrees with that notion.

Macha and the Brewers are in St. Louis today, where Macha is expected to meet with Doug Melvin to discuss his potential return for next season. I guess one can hope for an Eric Wedge-esque "he's finishing the season, but then we're moving on" announcement, but it seems more than likely he'll be retained.

If nothing else, the conversation about managerial decisions provided the seed for what might possibly be the worst column I've ever read. If you need an excuse to bang your head against your desk today, feel free to read this atrocity from Emmert Dose of the Racine Journal-Times, which recaps the 2008 season complete with use of all caps, devolves into "I told you so," and eventually leads to a call for the return of Ned Yost. More worthless words have never been written.

The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers had a disappointing season on the field, but still finished with three of the Midwest League's top prospects, according to Baseball America. That link will take you to the non-subscriber version of the article, but Rattler Radio has the scouting reports from the full version.

In power rankings:

Yahoo dropped the Brewers one spot to 18th.
Beyond the Box Score moved the Brewers up one spot to 21st.

As the Cardinals prepare for the postseason, it's easy to pinpoint one thing that got them there: Chris Carpenter went 11-0 with a 1.58 ERA against the NL Central this season.

The Pirates might have caught a break yesterday, when their game with the Cubs was postponed. The game won't be made up, meaning the Pirates will only need one more win to avoid a 100 loss season.

We'll never know for sure what, if anything, Mike Maddux could have done to right the sinking ship that was the Brewer pitching staff this season. With that said, the Rangers are reaping the benefits of having Maddux around this season, and it's hard not to wonder what could have been. (FanShot)

Joe Mauer has gathered some attention this week based on the accusation that he may have been stealing signs against the Tigers this week. Mauer has since denied the allegation, but Babes Love Baseball has a video you should watch if you're wondering what sign stealing might look like.

It seems like every offseason there's talk about changing the dimensions of ballparks, moving the fences in here or out there to adjust the homer-friendliness of the park. Since a construction project of that magnitude would presumably be pretty expensive, I'm surprised this doesn't come up as an option more often: The Mets are being urged to consider moving home plate forward ten feet at Citi Field. I can honestly say I've never thought of that, though I feel like an idiot admitting it.

Happy birthday today to Bob Collucio, who appeared in 284 games as a Brewer between 1971 and 1973 and turns 58 today, Ernest Riles, who appeared in 385 games between 1985 and 1988 and turns 49, and Victor Santos, who posted a 4.78 ERA in 295.2 innings as a Brewer between 2004 and 2005 and turns 33.

Oh, and if you go out in public today, remember to turn down your iPod.

Drink up.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 14:33:13 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Casey McGehee follows the flight of his home run against the Colorado Rockies in the ninth inning Wednesday.

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Some things to read while searching for giant shoes.

Manny Parra will make his final 2009 start in a few hours before "trying to forget" the 2009 season and moving on. If the impending end of the baseball season and a Manny Parra start weren't enough to depress you today, the former Hackers passed along this note: Three of the worst five starters in Brewer history (by ERA) are in the rotation right now, and project to be again next season.

One of the three, though, is done for 2009: The Brewers have changed plans regarding Dave Bush, who is no longer expected to start on Saturday. With Bush out, Yovani Gallardo shut down, Josh Butler sent home and Mike Burns likely done for the season, Carlos Villanueva could be called upon to start a game this weekend.

Even if the Brewers are short a pitcher or two this weekend, don't expect to see Seth McClung, who has pitched just one inning (ten days ago) since returning from the DL. McClung says he can see the writing on the wall and wonders if he's being set up to fail.

We probably also won't be seeing Corey Hart, who's likely done for the year after suffering compression fractures in the fingers on his right hand while sliding in headfirst on a pickoff move Tuesday (FanShot). If Hart's season is over it'll be another forgettable one, but it's worth noting that he raised his OBP by 35 points this season, out of the "embarrassing" zone and into "could improve." Of course, his power numbers also fell and his OPS is actually down from last season.

Prince Fielder's 44th home run last night was his 100th run of the season, making him the first Brewer ever to reach 100 runs, 100 RBI and 100 walks in a season. The feat has been accomplished 179 times in baseball history, but Fielder and Albert Pujols will likely be the only ones to do it this season.

While all of the playoff races are nearly over and many postseason awards have already been locked up, the NL Rookie of the Year race remains wide open. Over at The Hardball Times, Jeff Sackmann handicaps the field of candidates, and ranks Casey McGehee third.

At least this is the last morning of 2009 where I'll wake up and have to write about another Jeff Suppan start. Suppan was Suppan again last night, but because he hit a batter, Plunk Everyone has an incredible note on him:

Seth Smith got hit by a Jeff Suppan pitch, making Smith the only left fielder batting left handed to score a run after reaching base on a plunk thrown by a right handed pitcher in the month of September this year.

Without the internet, we never would have known.

Are you ready to start looking ahead to the hot stove season? Charlie Marlow has a look at the Brewers' financial commitments for 2010, and some expected arbitration outcomes.

MLB FanHouse dropped the Brewers one spot to 19th in their power rankings.

Around baseball:

Indians: Announced that manager Eric Wedge and his coaching staff will not be retained for 2010.

Jorge Says No! continues to look at upcoming free agents and their likely salaries, and projects Randy Wolf to get three years, $31.5 million this offseason. He also downgraded his projection for Doug Davis to three years, $21 million.

Before the season, we talked about Detroit, Cleveland and a handful of other teams that could struggle economically this season, but the biggest decline may actually be happening in Toronto, where the Jays cut "several dozen jobs" from the business side of their front office following their final home game Sunday. The team also cut 33 jobs in December. There are several franchises in baseball that don't have a lot going for them, but the Blue Jays might have one of the bleaker futures.

In the weeks following the end of the regular season, we'll probably spend a fair amount of time discussing prospects before eventually re-evaluating our Community Prospect Rankings. When we do, I'm guessing this will come up: Baseball America has compiled the average stats for every minor league, to show which leagues are hitter and pitcher-friendly. The PCL was pretty hitter-friendly this season, while the FSL and Midwest Leagues favored pitchers and the Southern League was close to neutral.

Looking for a history lesson today? Wezen-ball has a look back at the expansion teams of 1969, the process that led to their creation and their successes and failures. This post also has an interesting look at how the NL franchises ended up in San Diego and Montreal.

If you have MLB.tv and you're looking for something else to watch this weekend, here's something: Former Brewer knuckleballer Steve Sparks will be filling in on FS Houston broadcasts this weekend.

That's all I have for you today, unless you need tips on smelling nice.

Drink up.

The fizz has left the brew, but it can still kick your butt

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 18:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

There's no escaping the Brewers' disappointing season.

Browse more photos »

At the end of May, the Milwaukee Brewers were 30-20 and leading the NL Central. The Rockies' sweep in early June in Milwaukee (by a total of four runs) started the Brewers' slow down-turn away from contention. They haven't managed a winning month since May, and they currently sit below .500 both at home and on the road.

Their offense is fine - it's their pitching that has killed them. Only the Nationals have allowed more runs to score in the National League. That's not a recipe to return to the post-season.

Interestingly, they have only lost one of their past five series, defeating Arizona and Houston, splitting with Philadelphia and Chicago and losing a series to the Cubs. Despite their struggles this season, they respresent a formidable spoiler, especially if they get a random strong start from a starter.

The Rockies certainly are familiar with Milwaukee acting as a late season spoiler to an NL West team. Let's just hope the trend sticks with Trevor Hoffman blowing saves rather than karma evening out. Chat at Brew Crew Ball with cheeseheads.

Scoreboard Watch

Atlanta (2.0 GB):

vs Florida: Josh Johnson (15-5) vs Tim Hudson (2-1). Ricky Nolasco (12-9) vs. Javier Vazquez (15-9)

vs. Washington: Garrett Mock (3-10) vs. Tommy Hanson (11-4).

San Francisco (5 GB): Goodbye.

Florida (5.5 GB): Goodbye

Milwaukee Brewers (77-79, L1, 3rd, 13 GB)

Tuesday-Thursday : 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: B

Milwaukee's lineup has been quite stable this season, especially once adding Felipe Lopez. Rookie Alcides Escobar has been taking ABs from JJ Hardy, and Casey McGehee has taken over as the full time third baseman. The other five have been starters all year. The lineup exceptionally strong, coming in 3rd in the NL in both SLG and wOBA, 4th in OBP. Their average is 6th best, a pinch better than Colorado, but they strike out more than any team who plays Spring Training outside of Tucson. Milwaukee has also scored the fourth most runs in the National League this season.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA	OPS+
Felipe Lopez - 2B	.310	9	55	.381	.431	.356	111
Corey Hart - RF	.260	12	48	.335	.419	.331	98
Ryan Braun - LF	.316	30	107	.383	.540	.399	141
Prince Fielder - 1B	.297	43	137	.406	.596	.415	161
Casey McGehee - 3B	.304	15	64	.364	.503	.369	126
Mike Cameron - CF	.249	23	68	.342	.451	.344	107
Alcides Escobar - SS	.301	1	11	.324	.379	.307	85
Jason Kendall - C	.240	1	34	.331	.296	.287	67

The Brew's lineup is somewhat similar to St. Louis' in that there are two truly elite hitters in the middle of the lineup (Fielder and Braun). Unlike St. Louis, it's not just The Big Two and the Averages. There are other above average hitters, including Lopez (who has been even better with Milwaukee than Arizona), McGehee and Cameron. Corey Hart is about league average, rookie Alcides Escobar is holding his own above replacement level, but Jason Kendall could be replaced offensively with Sal Fasano at no loss whatsoever.

The bench currently constitutes the sitting place for infielders JJ Hardy (.229, 11, 47), Craig Counsell (.280, 4, 37) and Mat Gamel (.236, 5, 19). Four outfielders tend to hang out in the dugout most of the game as well, including Frank Catalanotto (.278, 1, 9), Jason Bourgeois (.200, 1, 3), Corey Patterson (1-for-10) and Jody Gerut (.241, 5, 20). Milwaukee is the first team the Rockies have seen since rosters expanded to carry just one backup catcher: Mike Rivera (.227, 2, 14). Bill Hall was traded to Seattle for a minor league pitcher last week. That leaves a bench void of a real threat.

Follow the jump for scouting reports on the Brewers' arms, defense, as well as the pitching matchups, injuries and hot/cold players.

The Arms: F

Milwaukee has had only one full-time starting pitcher (Yovani Gallardo) manage to keep his ERA below 5.00, and he has been shut down for the season. That's an eye-opening statistic, especially given their very offensive neutral home ballpark. In fact, it is so bad that they rank as Fangraphs' worst MLB rotation and second worst pitching staff. Manny Corpas accrued more WAR this season than their third best starter, and even Gallardo's season would place him fifth on the Rockies roster. How many more ways can I say suck?

At least Trevor Hoffman has been solid. The veteran has posted three consecutive months with an ERA under 2.00, this in a season where he didn't allow his first run until June 14.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Trevor Hoffman	2-2	52	0	0	0	36	3	51.0	34	10	10	2	11	46	1.76	0.88

The right-handed relievers include John Axford (3.2 IP, 2.45 ERA), Mike Burns (73 ERA+), Todd Coffey (143), Seth McClung (83), Chris Smith (137), Claudio Vargas (102), Carlos Villanueva (80) and David Weathers (100). Mitch Stetter (114) is the only lefty in the pantry, but he's a good one. Yovani Gallardo is technically active, but he has been shut down for the season.

The D: C

The Brewers 92 errors are very middle-of-the-pack, and their UZR/150 is just a pinch better than average at 1.1. Their Fangraphs value is 10th in MLB, but their stress on offense in the latter part of the season hurts their defense. McGehee is a big defensive downgrade on Bill Hall, as is Escobar on JJ Hardy. Braun and Hart are both defensive liabilities, though the outfield is somewhat balanced by a flashy and effective Mike Cameron. Believe it or not, Prince Fielder managed to be an average defensive first baseman, and Felipe Lopez is solid.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Chris Narveson	2-0	19	3	0	0	0	0	37.2	37	16	16	7	12	37	3.82	1.30

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Marquis	15-12	36	31	2	1	0	0	206.0	204	98	91	15	74	111	3.98	1.35

Hardcore Rockies' fans know the name Chris Narveson. He was acquired from St. Louis as part of the Larry Walker trade, essentially also meaning he played a part in bringing Dexter Fowler to Colorado. The Colorado native was a second round pick by the Cards in 2000, but his homecoming was short. He didn't throw a single pitch in the minors for the Rockies before being traded with Charles Johnson for Byung-Hyun Kim in March 2005. Brew Crew Ball featured him two weeks ago. The 27-year-old lefty has pretty average stuff but has managed to allow just 4 runs in his three starts this season, so he's more formidable than, say, Pat Misch. He'll be a bit like Edward Mujica though, given he has been in the bullpen most of the year and hasn't stretched out past 5.0 innings or 86 pitchers. Marquis, if you want to start another playoff game in your career, you better win this game. Continued suckitude could result in his September benching in following years even if he's pitching well. Get it done, Jason. Favors: ROCKIES moderately

Wednesday, September 30, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jeff Suppan	7-11	28	28	0	0	0	0	153.2	188	97	86	23	72	76	5.04	1.69

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Hammel	9-8	32	29	1	0	0	0	169.2	194	90	81	15	41	123	4.30	1.39

Jeff Suppan has been a giant disappointment for Milwaukee. Then again, that's what you get for putting so much stock in a couple playoff starts in deciding value for contract. His biggest issue with that abominable K/BB rate, his worst in 13 seasons. He also serves up plenty of home runs, only has one positive pitch (change-up) and he has the second-worst fastball of any NL pitcher with over 100 IP. He served up 12 hits and 7 ER in his last start. FIP and tRA suggest he has been very lucky this season to have an ERA as low as 5.04. We should crush this guy. Jason Hammel is quietly second on the Rockies in WAR among starters, and he has either pitched 6.0+ IP or allowed 3 or less runs in 10 of 11 starts. The Rockies lost his last start, only the second HomeHammel start Colorado has lost since May 14, and we all know this last one wasn't his fault. Favors: ROCKIES moderately

Thursday, October 1, 1:10 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Manny Parra	11-10	26	26	0	0	0	0	137.1	173	103	94	19	72	111	6.16	1.78

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Aaron Cook	10-6	27	26	1	1	0	0	150.0	171	75	72	18	46	76	4.32	1.45

Remember when I said Jeff Suppan had the NL's 2nd worst fastball according to Fangraphs? Well, Manny Parra has the worst, even though it comes in the low 90's from the left side. He returns for his second start after being sidelined with a neck injury - in his first, he held Philly to 1 run on 4 hits in 7 IP. In terms of the broad spectrum, he has slightly better peripherals than Suppan, and FIP and tRA suggest he's better than his ERA states. In addition, he's left-handed. Cue the thunder. Aaron Cook was fantastic in his last start Friday. This will be his last chance to prove he should be in the Rockies' playoff rotation, so let's see that sinker sink. Favors: ROCKIES moderately

Prince Fielder has at least one RBI in 7 of 9 games and has 7 dingers this month. Casey McGahee has four himself, part of 24 September RBIs. Ryan Braun and Felipe Lopez have hit over .300 this month, with Jody Gerut a hit away from the threshold. Trevor Hoffman has pitched seven consecutive scoreless appearances, allowing only one baserunner in that span. He accrued six saves and a win in those seven outings.

Mike Cameron is just 15-for-his-last-77, while Jason Kendall, Craig Counsell and JJ Hardy hover around the Mendoza line in the season's final month.

RHP David Riske missed the entire season with an elbow injury. RHP Mark DiFelice (shoulder - 9/14) and 2B Rickie Weeks (wrist - 5/18) are also on the 60-day disabled list.

Poll

Can Milwaukee help us?

Yeah...if by help us you mean blow the wild card lead by Friday by getting swept

17 votes

Not at all. The Rockies run cold against a couple lefties, the Brewers pound our pitchers and the Rox lose the series

18 votes

A bit. Winning the series keeps Colorado in the driver's seat, regardless of what Atlanta does

113 votes

Rockies fans that don't own Brewers T-shirts from 2007 rush to get them Friday after Milwaukee allows the Rox to sweep them.

74 votes

222 votes | Poll has closed