SB Nation - Corey Hart

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:36:15 -0000

by Matt Slocum - AP

Today's Frosty Mug is so full, I didn't even have time to caption this picture of Randy Wolf.

Some things to read while evening out the teams.

It turned out to be a pretty active first day of the Winter Meetings. The Brewers were the talk of the late night rumor mill, based on reports that they're close to signing a three year deal with Randy Wolf (also noted in Rumorville). Tom H. says the deal is rumored to be in the $25-27 million range, and is also quantifying the amount of smoke surrounding it.

With that said, the deal mustn't be done yet, because Arn Tellem, who represents Wolf, is meeting with the Mets this morning. Jon Heyman says the Mets aren't willing to offer Wolf a three year deal.

Is this the move you were hoping for from the Brewers? I'd be happy with it at this point, as long as the price isn't much above $27 million. There's always some risk involved, but this is almost certainly a better deal than, for example, the four year deal Joel Pineiro is seeking.

Wolf might not be the only starting pitcher the Brewers acquire this week. They've reportedly discussed a deal with the Mets that would send Corey Hart to New York for John Maine, a former student of Rick Peterson who has missed most of the last year with shoulder issues (FanShot). It's unclear how much fire is behind this smoke, but the Mets are also rumored to be discussing a similar trade with the Angels, with Juan Rivera taking Hart's place.

The Brewers also added a little depth to their middle infield yesterday, claiming shortstop Luis Cruz off waivers from the Pirates (FanShot). Cruz played seven positions (everything but pitcher and catcher) last season in AAA, but has virtually zero ability with the bat (a .274 OBP in AAA last season), and Adam McCalvy confirmed the move was made for minor league, not major league depth. The Brewers don't have a true shortstop prospect in the minors above Brent Brewer and Josh Prince, neither of whom played above A-ball last season.

The Brewer bullpen suffered a blow yesterday, as Mark DiFelice underwent surgery to repair damage to his labrum and rotator cuff, and will miss the entire 2010 season (FanShot). DiFelice is 33 and undergoing his second major shoulder procedure, but intends to try to pitch in the majors again in 2011, telling Adam McCalvy "I don't want it to end like this."

This raises the stakes a little bit in the search for additional bullpen help, but the Crew won't be getting said help from Rafael Betancourt. Late in the day yesterday it was reported that the Brewers were unlikely to lure Betancourt away from a return to the Rockies. I haven't seen it confirmed, but I'm pretty sure he accepted arbitration late last night.

Looking back at a rumor from the weekend, In-Between Hops has come out against a Jeff Suppan-for-Juan Pierre deal, fearing the extra $4 million in salary the Brewers would have to take on would make it difficult for them to sign a pitcher like Randy Wolf.

And, looking back even farther, Dave Allen of FanGraphs has a look at the pitch-blocking ability of Gregg Zaun. Ken Macha is making me crazy: I should see this as a positive, but instead I see it as the excuse that might be used to keep an underperforming/overused Zaun in the lineup and a more deserving catcher on the bench.

In the minors, Brewerfan.net has a new Power 50 up. It's always interesting to see how guys move up and down the charts during the offseason. This edition's big gainers were Kentrail Davis, Jake Odorizzi and John Axford, with Hernan Iribarren, Chris Cody and Max Walla losing significant ground.

And around here, we're looking for your help to select a Brewer All-Decade Team in a series we're calling Making Your '00 Face. That link will take you to the voting for first base, where Prince Fielder has opened up what will likely turn out to be an insurmountable lead. Voting for second base will open at 4 pm today.

Around baseball:

Braves: Reliever Rafael Soriano has accepted the team's offer of arbitration.
Cardinals: Have agreed to a one year, $7.5 million deal for Brad Penny, pending a physical.
Nationals: Signed Ivan Rodriguez to a two year deal worth $6 million, acquired reliever Brian Bruney from the Yankees for a PTBNL, and released reliever Saul Rivera.
Pirates: Signed reliever Vinnie Chulk to a minor league deal.
Rangers: Acquired pitcher Clay Rapada from the Tigers for a PTBNL or cash.
Red Sox: Signed pitcher Fabio Castro and re-signed Kason Gabbard.
Rockies: Released outfielder Matt Murton, who is expected to spend 2010 in Japan.
Tigers: Re-signed Adam Everett to a one year deal, and signed reliever Brad Thomas, who has spent the last two seasons pitching in Korea.
Twins: Carl Pavano has accepted the team's arbitration offer.

The Rule 5 Draft is on Thursday, so I'm almost done burying you in links like these: Harry Pavlidis of The Hardball Times and Lisa Winston of MiLB.com have a look at several players who recently played in the Arizona Fall League and were left unprotected in the draft.

Competition is heating up in the market for Edwin Jackson. One report yesterday had the Tigers receiving 12 offers for his services. I guess that's what you get when you put a pitcher who threw over 200 effective innings last season and is due about $5 million on the market.

Speaking of pitchers the Brewers might be interested in, Justin Duchscherer declined the A's offer of salary arbitration.

I think most of us will be happy to see these former Brewers sign elsewhere, and keeping one of them in the division would be a double bonus: Jason Kendall is reportedly drawing interest from the Royals, and Braden Looper has expressed interest in pitching for the Cubs.

In case you were wondering, Keith Law has an explanation of how the Winter Meetings, usually held in a warm vacation spot, ended up in Indianapolis. The cold temps and snow haven't kept people from exchanging some tidbits of info you probably would never have known without the internet (and might not have missed):

There was apparently a small tiff between Scott Boras and new Hall of Famer Whitey Herzog over comments Herzog made about Matt Holliday, a Boras client.
Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez didn't shoot anything while out deer hunting with Bobby Cox last week.
Former D-Back, Indian, Ray and Ranger Nick Bierbrodt, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2004, is a ttempting a comeback.
New Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous is battling a cold this week, so he's not shaking anyone's hand.
Speaking of the Blue Jays, radio reporter Mike Wilner has an annoying ring tone and left his phone in the media workroom yesterday.
Craig Calcaterra brought an airport card to the meetings, making him one of the few writers not reliant on slow internet service.

And, of course we're all having fun this week, but Paul DePodesta has a reminder for all of us that many of this week's rumors will be just that, and not to get too worked up over them. Of course, no one ever gets too worked up around here, right?

Away from the meetings, here's a strange story. After months of investigation, Major League Baseball has concluded that new Twins prospect Miguel Angel Sano, who claims to be 16, is somewhere between 16 and 18. Sano also recently changed his name to Miguel Jean. If he turns out to be Miguel Tejada in disguise, the Twins will probably be very upset.

On this day in 1991, Brewer reliever Julio Machado was arrested for murder after shooting a passenger in a car that had just been involved in an accident. Machado was later found guilty and served 12 years in prison.

I don't have any Brewer birthdays today, but it is a Woot-off day, so there's that.

Drink up.

Twitter Is Ridiculous Applesauce - Omar Meets The Agents, Juan Pierre Is Available And Nonsensical Rumors

James Kannengieser — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:05:48 -0000

It seems reporters/"journalists" are neglecting to consider source bias and failing to corroborate rumors with multiple sources before posting on Twitter or a blog. All in the name of page hitzzz I suppose.

Meet the Mets

Omar Minaya met with the agents for various players last night, including John Lackey, Jason Marquis, Bengie Molina, Joel Pineiro and Randy Wolf.

In an interview with Daily 'Stache, Adam Rubin says the Mets should focus on pitching this offseason, namely Lackey. He also says Jeff Francoeur is the most reliable provider of good quotes.

Steve Henson says that 3-4 teams are interested in Dodgers OF Juan Pierre. A trade for Pierre would likely include a bad contract player, AKA Luis Castillo. No thanks on Pierre. Speaking of undesirable players, Jerry Crasnick reports that Elmer Dessens will likely re-sign with the Mets. If it's a major league deal you better get ready for Dessens Avenue.

Ken Davidoff tweets that Yorvit Torrealba is on the Mets radar. Interesting, considering the bizarre chain of events involving the Mets and Torrealba two offseasons ago.

Joel Sherman reports that a John Maine for Corey Hart trade is being discussed. Hart is just 27 years old and two years removed from a 4+ win season but I'd rather hold on to Maine. Will at BlueAndOrange agrees and thinks the deal is plausible, especially considering Omar Minaya's affinity for bad corner outfielders.

Mets Fever is also a fan of Adam Kennedy. If Castillo can be moved, Kennedy is the way to go.

LOL Rumors of the Day

Early yesterday it was reported that Pat Burrell had been traded to the Mets. This story was debunked almost immediately and the original story has been taken down from PhillyBlurbs, the website with the original report. Folks, cool it with your bogus anonymous sources, you're not providing a valuable service and it's annoying. No one is impressed.

Ed Price of Fanhouse tweeted the following yesterday:

Rumor that #Mets acquire Edwin Jackson

This was followed shortly by a clarification tweet from Price:

To be clear: #Mets and Edwin Jackson not confirmed. Heard in the lobby.

Why not get confirmation before posting the rumor? Does "heard in the lobby" count as a reliable source nowadays?

Around MLB

The Nationals gave Pudge Rodriguez 2 years, $6 million for some reason.

Randy Wolf reportedly signed with the Brewers for 3 years and an unknown dollar amount.

Chuck Brownson at The Hardball Times discusses swaps for bad contracts, including Dontrelle Willis, Milton Bradley, Gil Meche and Kevin Millwood.

Tim Marchman thinks an intra-Chicago trade between the Cubs and White Sox involving Milton Bradley makes sense.

Matt Murton, a notorious ginger and player good enough to start on many major league teams, is going to play for the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. I wonder if Murton realizes he's good enough for MLB.

Off topic link of the day: Tom Tango reviews the incredibly enjoyable movie Taken and heaps justifiable praise on Liam Neeson. I agree with him, Taken is fantastic.

Brewers Facing Tough Times Ahead

Charlie — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 07:54:11 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

3 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers' Prince Fielder, right, and Ryan Braun celebrate Fielder's home run against the Cincinnati Reds in the fifth inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2009, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Darren Hauck)

Browse more photos »

Here's an interesting (and fun-to-read) article about the problems the Brewers are facing this offseason. As much as I and others have presented the Brewers as a good example for the Pirates franchise, a dose of reality is in order. Their core of young stars burst onto the scene about as brightly as anyone could have hoped a couple years ago, but now they're getting expensive quickly. When they were trying to contend, they signed a number of players (Jeff Suppan in particular) to contracts that now would be mildly annoying to a team like the Mets or the Cubs, but are a big problem for the Brewers. Several of their core players (J.J. Hardy, Bill Hall, Corey Hart) stalled after putting in a couple of good seasons, and now Milwaukee is pondering life without them. Ben Sheets is now a free agent. The back of the Brewers' rotation is uninspiring at best. They don't really have a catcher. Without major changes, they're probably hoping just to play .500 ball next year.

They haven't been run perfectly. The Suppan contract was a terrible idea from the start, for example. But for a team to get as much right as the Brewers have the past five years and still be struggling seems unfair. They've added significant value to Major League Baseball as a whole by developing stars like Sheets, Yovani Gallardo, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Braun. They've also spent relatively lavishly for a team in their situation. And they're still floundering.

It's not right. The Pirates have no one but themselves to blame for most of their current problems, but that could change in a few years. And even if Neal Huntington's plans work well, the Pirates will still probably looking at the Brewers' last few seasons--a couple of winning seasons, maybe a playoff appearance. For those things to happen would obviously be great, in a way, but that hardly seems like enough.

Tuesday's Quick and Late Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 21:31:13 -0000

Some things to read while the Muppets make everything better (h/t Daily Drink).

In the interest of getting it done as early as possible, today's Mug is bullet pointed again:

Prince Fielder finished fourth in the NL MVP balloting, appearing on all 32 ballots and getting five second place votes (FanShot). Ryan Braun also appeared on 16 ballots en route to an 11th place finish, but was ranked no higher than fifth on any of them. The link above has the full voting. Hopefully we'll soon find out which three voters had Prince Fielder tenth on their ballot, and who cast votes for Jeremy Affeldt, Brad Hawpe and Shane Victorino.
John Halama is a Brewer, having signed a minor league deal yesterday. Halama will turn 38 before opening day, hasn't pitched in the majors since 2006, and would be pitching for his eighth major league team if he makes the Brewers. With that said, Adam McCalvy blamed his 2006 departure from the Orioles on family issues, so perhaps he's ready to bounce back.
Speaking of pitchers who could bounce back, Chris Capuano will be back for another season on a minor league deal. Capuano made a few short appearances down the stretch for the Brewer rookie league affiliates, and if his rehab continues to progress he could be ready to pitch in the major leagues by spring training.
Project Prospect ranked baseball's top 15 shortstop prospects, and Alcides Escobar is #1, ahead of recent AFL standout Starlin Castro. TheJay had a post earlier today on players who do not have rookie eligibility next season, but Escobar is not one of them...and he's probably an early candidate for Rookie of the Year.
Al has a look at ten free agents that could become Brewers. Aside from the top two, there's no one else on that list I've even heard mentioned in connection with the Crew.
As for transactions, the Braves signed former Royals minor league pitcher Juan Abreu to a major league deal.
For whatever it's worth, MLB Daily Dish thinks Ben Sheets will end up as a Mariner this offseason.
It's no secret that the Braves would like to deal Derek Lowe this offseason. The Ghost of Moonlight Graham has a look at the market for his services, and thinks the Brewers made the right decision by not trading Corey Hart for him.
If you'd like something to overanalyze today, here's a candidate: Recent Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman has decided to switch agents, dumping the agency that helped get him out of Cuba, and Jon Heyman says at least one exec sees the move as a potential character issue. Obviously, the agency lost some money on the deal, but I'm having a hard time getting worked up over it.
Something else to think about this afternoon, in Sporcle form: How many of Kenny Lofton's teams can you name?
Friend of the site Stephen C. Smith of SpaceCoastBaseball.com has a post-mortem on the Florida Winter Baseball League, which lasted all of a few weeks, despite telling staff it had enough financial resources to last for multiple seasons (h/t Rattler Radio). Meanwhile, if you're one of the seven people who purchased tickets to a FWBL game and didn't get to use them, the Brevard County Manatees will allow you to use them next season.
On this day in 1969, Dave Bristol was hired to manage the Seattle Pilots. A few months later the team would move to Milwaukee and Bristol would become the first manager of the Milwaukee Brewers.
Happy birthday today to Cal Eldred, who turns 42, and Ben McDonald, who also turns 42.
On and it's probably a little late to help you today, but this cereal flow chart might make tomorrow morning a little easier. (h/t C. Trent Rosecrans)

Drink up.

Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft-Round 1, Pick 10

raygu — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 14:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Browse more photos »

With pick 10 in the first round, I pondered selecting Evan Longoria or Mark Reynolds, but decided to go with a true power hitter, Prince Fielder.

Fielder was second in the majors in HRs in 2009 as he went 46-141-.299-.412-.602-1.014, and approached 50 HRs for the second time in three years. He improved his BB/K% from 0.63 to 0.80 in 2009 as he increased his BB% from 12.5% in 2008 to 15.7% in 2009. He also increased his HR/FB% from 18.2% in 2008 to 23.1% in 2009.

If Fielder can maintain the high BB/K%, and slightly increase his HR/FB%, Prince can approach 50 HRs for the 3rd time in four seasons. With that said, Bill James predicts Prince will go 44-124-.286-.393-.574-.967 in 2010. James see a slight regression in Prince's OBP, but I have a feeling he can continue to show a solid eye at the plate.

Should Fielder continue to show an improved eye at the plate, Prince could exceed James prediction of 44-124 again in 2010. Milwaukee will need a bounce back season from outfielder Corey Hart and a solid sopphomore season from third baseman Casey McGehee to protect Fielder in the middle of the Brewers lineup, as well.

Poll

Will Prince Fielder hit 50 HRs in 2010?

Yes, his improved batting eye and HR/FB will stick.

29 votes

No, the lineup behind him is not very good.

27 votes

56 votes | Poll has closed

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:25:35 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

The Braves would love to unload Derek Lowe's contract, but don't sound all that interested in taking on Corey Hart in exchange.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while moving Christmas dinner.

When something shows up in two separate sections of the site, it's usually best to assume it's true, so the fact that there are posts about it in Rumorville and the FanShots must mean there's some truth to the rumor that the Brewers and Braves have discussed a trade that would send Corey Hart to the Braves for Derek Lowe. However, Mark Bowman of MLB.com says the Braves aren't interested in Hart, which makes two of us. Meanwhile, Jorge Says No! reiterated a trade idea they mentioned a while back: Hart for Kenshin Kawakami.

As of 12:01 this morning, the market is officially open for free agents to negotiate with other teams. Tom H. has an overview of the market, with the Brewers tied to the usual names: John Lackey, Doug Davis, Jarrod Washburn. Randy Wolf's name was also mentioned.

The Pinstriper has predictions for all of this offseason's Type A and B free agents, and thinks the Brewers will sign Doug Davis and re-sign Jason Kendall. Meanwhile, they have Mike Cameron, Braden Looper, Felipe Lopez and David Weathers signing with the Padres, Astros, Dodgers and Pirates, respectively.

While the BBWAA has left the Brewers out in their voting for most of their major awards, one pitcher still collected an award from another source: Manny Parra won Joe Posnanski's NL Les Sweetland Award for being the NL's worst pitcher in 2009, while Jason Kendall narrowly missed winning the NL LVP.

At least in this scenario, Kendall wouldn't be back: Wisconsin Sports Tap thinks the Brewers should step into the future and give Jonathan Lucroy the catching job in 2010. I've covered why I think it's a bad idea.

Two Brewer staffers, manager in the Brewers' media relations department John Steinmiller and manager of marketing promotions Caitlin Moyer have started a blog to keep fans updated on what's going on at Miller Park during the offseason, and they have a post on some planned renovations in and around the park, as well as the renaming of some parking lots (h/t Adam McCalvy). Miller Park Drunk took a look at the new parking lot map and wonders how Paul Molitor ended up getting the faraway lot.

As noted in today's Fall/Winter League Update, Alcides Escobar had a pretty good night in Venezuela last night, going 4-for-4 with a solo home run. If you're looking for more about it and happen to speak Spanish, here's a game story from ElImpulso.com.

For many Brewer fans, it's been a long few decades of waiting for the Crew to put a winning team back on the field, but we've held strong. A Girl's View of the Brewers tells the story of her Brewer fanhood.

Around the league:

Cubs: Re-signed John Grabow to a one year deal worth $3.75 million.
D-Backs: Acquired Aaron Heilman from the Cubs for a pair of minor leaguers.
Royals: Signed pitcher Brad Thompson to a minor league deal.

I know I mentioned it earlier this week, but I'm going to mention Lookout Landing's Faces series again because today's installment features former Brewer first round pick Dave Krynzel.

The deadline has passed for players to be added to 40-man rosters to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft, so we can start looking at players who might be available. One such player is former Brewer farmhand Cole Gillespie, left unprotected by the D-Backs. Gillespie hit very well in AAA for the D-Backs after being acquired as part of the Felipe Lopez deal, and will probably get a shot to make a team as a fourth outfielder next spring.

We spend a lot of time discussing minutiae during the offseason and most of it doesn't amount to much in the end, but this is why we do it: Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com has a look at players who have gone from minor league free agent to big league contributor. It doesn't happen often, but it is possible to strike gold.

Miller Park Drunk is starting a season-by-season review of the decade that was for the Brewers, but you're forgiven if you're not too excited about reliving the 2000 season. It's about as exciting as Ryan Braun modeling more Remetee stuff.

Does a change up lose its effectiveness when a batter sees it multiple times? That's the question Max Marchi of The Hardball Times is taking on, by looking at batters who see multiple change ups, both in the same AB and over multiple ABs, and the pitchers who throw them.

On this day in 1969, the Seattle Pilots fired Joe Schultz, the first manager in franchise history, after just one season. Dave Bristol took over and managed the club for their first three seasons in Milwaukee.

Also, on this day in 1989, Robin Yount won his second American League MVP Award, this one as a center fielder. Yount received just eight of the 27 available first place votes but edged out Ruben Sierra by 28 points.

I couldn't find a Brewer birthday again today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a happy birthday to Rick Monday, who turns 64. Thanks in advance to FtJ, who will likely point out a birthday I missed in the comments.

And finally, a programming note: I'm leaving in a few hours to go deer hunting for a few days. I'll still be writing the Mug next week, but I'm moving Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday's Mugs to the afternoon so I can still hunt in the mornings. I'll be back with a regular Mug a week from today.

Drink up.

Report: Braves Attempting to Move Derek Lowe

gondeee — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 00:05:31 -0000

From Ken Rosenthal, we learn that the Atlanta Braves have had what seems like several conversations with teams about trading starting pitcher Derek Lowe, but they have had little luck finding a taker:

The Braves' most extensive discussions concerning Lowe have been with the Brewers about a trade for outfielder Corey Hart, according to one source.

But the Brewers are not sure they would want Lowe even if the Braves included significant money in the deal, another source says.

Another team showing interest is the Angels:

The Angels, who showed interest in Lowe about a month ago, according to sources, could use him to replace Lackey in their rotation. The Braves, seeking a right-handed hitter, like Angels outfielder Juan Rivera.

Rosenthal also speculates that the White Sox could be a match for the Braves, in a possible swap for right-handed first baseman Paul Konerko, but no sources are cited for that rumor.

The rumor about the Brewers seems quite credible since Rosenthal mentions two different sources, and the Braves have long had eyes for Corey Hart (though I don't know why). Once John Lackey signs, the market for Lowe may open up, with those teams who lost out on Lackey willing to up their offer to get Lowe. The Braves could still reverse course and choose to deal Javier Vazquez, but for the moment it seems clear that they are focused on moving Lowe and his contract (even if they have to eat part of it).

[UPDATE 8:15pm]

Mr. Rumor Clarification (aka Mark Bowman) was quicker than he normally is in clarifying the above rumor. Here's Bowman:

The Braves see the Brewers as a potential suitor for Derek Lowe. But contrary to a report on FOXSports.com, they have never been interested in trading the veteran sinkerballer in exchange for Brewers outfielder Corey Hart.

Good. I feel the same way about Corey Hart. No thank you. Bowman reiterates an statement he made earlier in the off-season that the Brewers are primarily interested in Javier Vazquez. He also mentions that the Braves have strong interest in trying to match up Lowe with the Angels in a trade.

MLB Trade Rumors: On the Beat with John Perrotto Version

raygu — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:00:37 -0000

by Eric Risberg - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Chad Billingsley takes a break on the mound after the San Francisco Giants scored their third run in the fourth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009. San Francisco won the game 7-2; Billingsley was the losing pitcher. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

View full size photo »

Every Sunday, John Perrotto from Baseball Prospectus puts out an article talking about possible trade rumors and signings, along with analysis of the goings on around baseball. Yesterday's article was chock full of names who could be available in trade talks this offseason, with some suprise names.

Let's take a look after the jump:

Here is a list of names who could be available in trade talks per Perrotto:

Chad Billingsley Kerry Wood

Dave Bush Bobby Jenks

Jeremy Guthrie Pat Burrell

Adrian Gonzalez Nelson Cruz

Heath Bell Ryan Ludwick

Glen Perkins Dan Uggla

Kenshin Kawakami Juan Pierre

Derek Lowe Ryan Doumit

Javier Vazquez Dioner Navarro

Carlos Zambrano Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Matt Capps Geovany Soto

Christian Guzman Elijah Dukes

Corey Hart David Dejesus

Poll

What name on the Perrotto list is most surprising?

Ryan Ludwick

39 votes

Geovany Soto

61 votes

Chad Billingsley

116 votes

Ryan Doumit

17 votes

233 votes | Poll has closed

The Weekend Linkfest!

NoahJ — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 12:00:47 -0000

Some things to read while being a real man or while putting up your holiday decorations.

I would like to preface this by kind of letting everyone know what is going on. As KL posted friday, Morineko, FtJ and I will be your new weekend editors. What that means is we will be hanging around and posting a weekend news post to keep things alive on the weekends. KL asked us to "make it our own" and do what we'd like with the post. I, personally, will probably be following the same basic format as the Frosty Mugs, though I can't speak on whether the other two will be doing anything radically different. Hopefully we can get it so it is nearly as active on Saturday and Sunday as it is Monday-Friday. If there is anything you would like somewhat different, at least from me, feel free to voice whatever is on your mind.

And if you are arriving late today, be sure to check out Jordan's and Jeff's excellent-as-always posts below this one. Both posts relate to the JJ Hardy/Carlos Gomez trade, about which I have an abundance of articles, so let's get right into the bulletpoints for that:

The Bucky Channel likes the trade. However, they also think Gomez should lead off, which is probably a bad idea.
Wisconsin's Sports Tap also is a fan of the trade, and gives a pretty good look at what this means for the Brewers.
Carlos Gomez says that he'll hit in Milwaukee with a full time job
The Official Site has an article about Alcides Escobar, along with Hardy's thoughts on the player Escobar is and will be.
Casa De Machado says their good-bye to JJ and also thinks that Corey Hart will be traded with Jody Gerut taking over in right field.
Milwaukee's Own Brew Crew Fans likes the trade and likens Carlos Gomez to another player with what seems to be a similar skillset, Michael Bourn
Miller Park Drunk has a big roundup of what various places are saying about the trade.

Tom H also sees the Bourn comparison. I have also seen/heard comparisons to Jose Reyes in various places as well.

There are other links, but there is nothing really to differ them from the rest. Most people either like the trade or are at least OK with it. I only saw a couple places where the author hated the trade.

In other news, it sounds like Mark Mulder will probably be a Brewer sooner than later. We;ve been hearing that for a while, but I haven't heard of any displeasure about the Brewers taking that risk. As long as there is no big guaranteed contract, I don't really know how you could be upset with that.

Baseball Daily Digest has a very good article up about new Brewers pitching coach Rick Peterson, his time in Oakland, and his work with their "big three". It's definitely worth a read.

The Arizona Fall League's Rising Stars game was yesterday, and the only Brewer, Mark Rogers, didn't get a chance to pitch in the game. Here is the gameday with the boxscore.

Roguejim has a fanpost about pertinent off season dates. Circling the Bases has an even more complete list full of offseason dates.

Circling the Bases also says that the Phillies will be in the market for a third basemen to replace Pedro Feliz. Would they have any pitching the Brewers could get for McGehee or Gamel?

Several different sites have been ranking the New York Yankees World Series winners. I will link to the Hardball Times version because they have links to several others if you are interested.

Other than all that, I just have a few quick, interesting links:

If you don't like ESPN, Brewed Sports gives you another reason to dislike the World Leader.

BizofBaseball makes the case against implementing a salary cap in baseball.

In Cuba, there was a case where the Umpires using instant replay might still have led to the wrong decision.

And I don't know what the holiday was, but the city of New York had some sort of parade. Something to do with the Yankees I think? I don't know, Jay-Z was there, so I am guessing it must have been important.

That's about it. Unless of course you want to sign Seth McClung up for some anger management classes.

Taking a look at some early projections

KLSnow — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:35:51 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Can Rickie Weeks bounce back and have a strong 2010?

Browse more photos »

Earlier this week, ACTA Sports sent me a preview of the hitter projections from 2010's Bill James Handbook. Obviously, it's still really early, but I found some of the projections interesting, so I thought I'd pass them along to you.

Let's start with your likely leadoff hitter for the 2010 Brewers:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Rickie Weeks	425	.259	.357	.449	80	48	23	5	16	56	100

It's probably worth noting that even Bill James, who tends to be relatively optimistic, doesn't project Weeks to play a full season in 2009 (he has him at 114 games). Even so, these numbers are probably a little optimistic. The .259 average is a slight drop from 2009, but the .357 OBP is actually 17 points higher. Weeks was off to a hot start slugging in 2009, posting a .517 slugging percentage, but this .449 projection would be easily the second highest of his career.

Other potential second basemen:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Felipe Lopez	565	.281	.352	.400	79	58	31	3	10	60	104
Craig Counsell	342	.246	.337	.327	45	25	15	2	3	42	51

While James has Lopez playing a full season, he projects to be less productive, losing 55 OPS points to Weeks. This line for Counsell looks fair, although the Brewers are likely in trouble if they actually need him for 342 ABs.

Follow the jump for lots more projections!

Both because he could feasibly bat #2 and because he's possibly the most interesting projection:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Alcides Escobar	504	.288	.326	.377	75	48	22	4	5	28	77

If Escobar can put up this kind of season and still play the level of defense we've come to expect from him, I'll be overjoyed. James also projects him to steal 42 bases in 54 attempts, adding roughly 18 bases to his value. The walk total may look low, but it's actually a bit optimistic: Escobar only averaged 23.3 walks per season over six years in the minors. Escobar's primary source of value will almost certainly always be his glove, but if he can put up a .700 OPS in the majors then he'll be a significantly above average contributor at short.

The other option, of course, is J.J. Hardy:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
J.J. Hardy	528	.254	.320	.422	70	68	28	2	19	50	92

This isn't as strong of a bounce back as I was expecting to see. Certainly, Hardy adds a little bit of power over Escobar, but his OBP is actually a little lower, and his base-stealing ability is completely negligible (James projects Hardy to go 1-for-1 stealing bases). These numbers are roughly the midpoint between Hardy's very good 2008 season and extremely disappointing 2009.

Moving on, I think it's pretty safe to assume Ryan Braun will be batting third and playing left field on Opening Day, unless Anthony Witrado is promoted to GM:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Ryan Braun	615	.315	.378	.593	112	119	42	6	39	53	112

Those are MVP-quality numbers if ever I've seen them. Braun projects to be an elite player again next season, and if the award doesn't go to Albert Pujols (projected to go .333/.443/.642 with 44 home runs), Braun might have to be considered the frontrunner. These numbers would set new career highs in slugging, RBI, doubles and home runs, while tying a career low in strikeouts.

And, unless something changes before spring, Prince Fielder will likely be hitting behind Braun:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Prince Fielder	601	.286	.393	.574	103	124	37	2	44	96	135

With these numbers, Fielder would still be one of the National League's premier hitters, but his production would actually decline a bit from 2009's numbers in all three slash stats, RBI, home runs and walks. Fielder won't turn 26 until May, so it seems strange to project him to decline, even slightly. With that said, he'll still be one of the NL's elite hitters.

The way things stack up at present, the leading candidate to bat fifth and play third base is likely Casey McGehee:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Casey McGehee	492	.272	.328	.429	63	76	30	1	15	41	86

Like many of us, James expects McGehee to come back down to Earth a little, but these projections still have him as a solid-to-slightly above average third baseman. All three slash lines are significant steps down from the .301/.360/.499 numbers he put up in 2009.

The other option, of course, is some guy the Brewers have on the end of the bench:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mat Gamel	455	.277	.354	.464	65	73	28	3	17	53	142

These projections, especially the OBP, seem a little high, but Gamel projects to outperform McGehee in nearly every way en route to a .818 OPS. This is yet another piece of evidence to be used in the argument that the Brewers should sell high on McGehee to make room for Gamel in the lineup.

(I know at least a few of you would probably like to see a projection for Adam Heether here, but he doesn't appear in James' projections. Sorry.)

Until told otherwise, I'm going to continue to assume Mike Cameron will return to play center field and bat sixth:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mike Cameron	561	.237	,328	.428	79	74	32	3	23	71	171

These numbers aren't the best argument for opening the checkbook to keep him around. Clearly, James is expecting age to catch up with Cameron, who would lose 13 points in average, 14 in OBP, 24 in slugging, and strike out over 170 times for just the second time in his 16 year career. These numbers still aren't terrible, and combined with good defense Cameron is still likely an above average center fielder. But, with that said, paying anything like his $10 million 2009 salary for performance at this level is a questionable decision.

Dropping all the way to the seventh spot in the lineup in right field, here's Corey Hart:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Corey Hart	533	.272	.332	.467	78	76	37	5	19	43	110

This would actually be a pretty nice bounce-back season for Hart, with his highest batting average, slugging percentage and run total since 2007. Entering his age 28 season, it's possible Hart will never be the player we all thought he might be after hitting .295/.353/.539 three years ago, but these numbers would be acceptable for a corner outfielder.

While we're on the subject, here are the projections for some other outfielders on the Brewer roster:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Frank Catalanotto	110	.273	.360	.418	14	12	8	1	2	10	14
Jody Gerut	162	.259	.326	.420	23	20	9	1	5	14	25

I'm not sure either of these stat lines suggest either of these guys should play everyday, but they project to be solid fourth and fifth outfielders next season, and if it won't cost too much to do so, I'd be fine with bringing both back. Thankfully, there's no projection for Corey Patterson.

I'm preparing myself for disappointment by operating under the assumption that Jason Kendall will continue to catch and tie up the eighth spot in the batting order again next season.

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Jason Kendall	409	.254	.338	.320	43	35	19	1	2	37	44

I'm not sure what James is smoking here, because even this lackluster projection seems a little too high. In two seasons as a Brewer, Kendall has hit ..244/.329/.315, and I'm not sure he can even repeat that at age 36, much less improve upon all three numbers. Kendall is likely getting the benefit of the doubt based on an extensive major league career, but recent evidence would suggest he's sliding downhill, not mounting a comeback. I'm not sure where one finds the data to support even a small offensive resurgence from a weak-hitting 36 year old catcher.

Interestingly enough, James' projections don't have Mike Rivera, but they do have Angel Salome:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Angel Salome	240	.296	.345	.442	30	39	15	1	6	18	45

This is much higher than I would have projected Salome, who I think might be the third best of the three internal options to replace Kendall next season (Sadly, Jonathan Lucroy is also not projected). With that said, Salome is projected to out-OPS Kendall by 129 points. Remember what it was like when the Brewers had a catcher that wasn't an offensive black hole? Me either. I'd love to see what that's like.

So, what do you think of these projections?