SB Nation - Francisco Cordero

Fantasy Baseball: Early NL Closer Watch

raygu — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 20:00:20 -0000

by Bill Kostroun - AP

3 months ago: New York Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez follows through on a pitch during the ninth inning of a baseball game against the Chicago Cubs, Sunday, Sept. 6, 2009, at Citi Field in New York. Rodriguez got the save as the Mets defeated the Cubs 4-2. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

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To follow up on Ian's nice writeup on the AL closer picture, I will do the same for the NL. I have always been one to not spend too much on closers in auction leagues, or to draft them early in straight drafts. The closer job is highly volatile and continues to be this offseason.

Here is a rundown of the current closers in the National League compared to who the closer was on opening day 2009:

Team	Apr. 2009	Dec. 2009
New York	Rodriguez	Rodriguez
Philadelphia	Lidge	Lidge
Florida	Lidstrom	Nunez
Atlanta	Gonzalez	Wagner
Washington	Hanrahan	Capps

Chicago	Gregg	Marmol
Milwaukee	Hoffman	Hoffman
Houston	Valverde	Lyon/Lidstrom
St. Louis	Motte	Franklin
Pittsburgh	Capps	Dotel??
Cincinnatti	Cordero	Cordero

Arizona	Qualls	Qualls
Los Angeles	Broxton	Broxton
Colorado	Corpas	Street
San Diego	Bell	Bell
San Francisco	Wilson	Wilson

I have italicized a few of the closers since we do not know who the closer will be or, in the case of Octavio Dotel and Matt Capps, they have been rumored to be signing with the Pirates and Nationals respectively. Of the list above, there are only a few guys I would want to spend money on: Brian Wilson, Jonathon Broxton, Heath Bell and Billy Wagner. Most of the other closers have either lost the closers job elsewhere, in the case of Huston Street, Carlos Marmol, Brandon Lyon, and Brad Lidge, or are coming off an injury (Qualls).

I also am not confident in drafting or spending money on the Mets Francisco Rodriguez. He may have had his worst year as a closer in 2009. K-Rod is fast losing the reason for his nickname....strikeouts. He had his worst strikeout total-73, K/9 -9.66, BB/9-5.03 and HR/9-0.93 since 2003. His K/9 and K/BB have been steadily dropping since 2004. He blew 7 save opportunities in 2009 to go with his 35 saves. I would not be at all shocked that he is injured, or gets injured in 2010.

Poll

Are you comfortable drafting Francisco Rodriguez in 2010?

Red Reposter - Adam Dunn continues to be more interesting than the Reds

ken — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 17:15:52 -0000

Grinch Mark Sheldon: Ryan Freel's not walking through that door
In the latest Inbox, Mark Sheldon shoots down inquiries about the availability of Ryan Freel to play short and trades for Kevin Youkilis or JJ Hardy. More importantly, he writes that the 2010 savings from the Rolen restructuring will not result in a FA signing.

All is calm on the Fay front
Fay checks in to say not much is going on. Gomes will likely test his value on the FA market. Fay will report for jury duty in January.

BtB: 2009 Catcher Block Percentage
I thought that Ryan Hanigan did a good job defensively last season, but at least by blocking pitches according to this study he was below average. Ramon Hernandez checks in at slightly above average. Scrabbles' heart might skip a beat when he sees who's at the top of the list. There could be a bias against the Reds catchers here based on the pitching, but I didn't read through the methodology. Still got presents to wrap.

Baseball Prospectus looks at the Hall of Fame Cases at Third and Short
No surprise that Jay Jaffe finds that Barry Larkin is more than worthy of the Hall. The rest of the article describes in detail the careers and cases for other candidates at short and third. I had forgotten that Edgar Martinez played several seasons at third before shifting to the DH. Not sure how much that helps his candidacy, though. I doubt many writers gave Tony Perez a significant bump for his time at the hot corner.

Look out Marty - Dunn's learing jiu jitsu
Adam Dunn is looking to improve his agility and defensive abilities at 1B with an unorthodox offseason training regime. Even if it doesn't work out, he'll be able to kick that much more ass.

Angels give Fernando Rodney a 2-year, 11M deal
With another big market team signing a reliever, the chances of moving Francisco Cordero this winter just got a little slimmer. Not that there was much hope to begin with.

Help Will Carroll write his next book.
He's looking for at least 100 good questions about injuries. But you can't ask him about the efficacy of Dr. Kremchek's poking stick, because I already did.

Making Your '00 Face: Closer

KLSnow — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 22:00:15 -0000

With the '00's almost behind us, it's time to take a look back and work together to make a BCB All Decade team for the '00s. Each day, we'll tackle a new position, and we'll have our 25 man roster complete sometime around the 1st of the year.

The concept here is pretty simple. Each day, I'll give you a list of candidates: For position players, it's the full list of players who appeared in at least 100 games at the position during the '00s. Here are the players we've selected so far:

First Base: Prince Fielder
Second Base: Rickie Weeks
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy
Third Base: Bill Hall
Corner Outfield: Ryan Braun
Center Field: Mike Cameron
Corner Outfield: Geoff Jenkins
Catcher: Damian Miller
Bench IF: Craig Counsell
Bench C: Mike Rivera
Bench COF: Carlos Lee

Voting opened yesterday for the first starting pitcher. Today we're opening the voting for a closer. Five pitchers have saved at least 30 games as a Brewer since 2000. Follow the jump for their stats, and cast your vote below.

Derrick Turnbow

Seasons as a Brewer: 4, 2005-2008
Traditional numbers: 218 G, 15-16, 4.84 ERA, 65 saves, 198 IP, 222 K, 122 BB
Advanced numbers: 3.99 FIP, 1.429 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 5.5 BB/9
WAR as a Brewer: 0.1

Dan Kolb

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2003-2004, 2006
Traditional numbers: 154 G, 3-8, 3.31 ERA, 61 saves, 147 IP, 86 K, 54 BB
Advanced numbers: 3.93 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 5.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
WAR as a Brewer: 3.5

Francisco Cordero

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2006-2007
Traditional numbers: 94 G, 3-5, 2.60 ERA, 60 saves, 90 IP, 116 K, 34 BB
Advanced numbers: 2.62 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, 3.4 BB/9
WAR as a Brewer: 3.7

Mike DeJean

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2001-2003
Traditional numbers: 201 G, 9-14, 3.50 ERA, 47 saves, 224 IP, 191 K, 105 BB
Advanced numbers: 4.24 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 4.2 BB/9
WAR as a Brewer: 2.6

Trevor Hoffman

Seasons as a Brewer: 1, 2009
Traditional numbers: 55 G, 3-2, 1.83 ERA, 37 saves, 54 IP, 48 K, 14 BB
Advanced numbers: 2.68 FIP, 0.91 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9
WAR as a Brewer: 2.5

Poll

Who should be the closer for the BCB All Decade Team?

Derrick Turnbow

73 votes

Dan Kolb

33 votes

Francisco Cordero

208 votes

Mike Dejean

4 votes

Trevor Hoffman

120 votes

438 votes | Poll has closed

Small-Payroll Teams Don't Need Jacuzzis

Charlie — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 01:46:05 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Teams like the Pirates--and Reds--can't really afford closers like Francisco Cordero.

Browse more photos »

Some odd point-counterpoint from Neal Huntington and Dejan Kovacevic. Huntington:

History has not been kind to teams in markets like Pittsburgh that have invested heavily in a closer. As a result, we will build depth, give ourselves options and see who steps up to take the ball and get the final outs in our close wins.

Kovacevic:

Here again, what do Pittsburgh or anyone's market size have to do with this concept?

If the Reds regret signing Francisco Cordero to close at his huge contract, how is that different than the Mets regretting signing J.J. Putz or Billy Wagner?

Sure, the Mets absorb the loss more easily because of a bigger payroll, but the history is no less kind to the Mets than it is to the Reds. It's still a lousy move on both counts.

Kovacevic gets it right with "Sure, the Mets absorb the loss more easily because of a bigger payroll...", but actually the conversation begins and ends there. Huntington is dead on.

First, and this is a minor point, the Mets didn't sign Putz, they traded for him. As for Wagner, the Mets paid him $10.5 million in 2009--but after they paid their team-controlled players, they also had room to spend $9 million on Francisco Rodriguez, $12 million on Oliver Perez, $12 million on Carlos Delgado, $20 million on Johan Santana, and $20 million on Carlos Beltran. They also paid $6.25 million to Luis Castillo and $6 million to Putz. None of those players were developed by the Mets.

The Reds spent $12 million on Cordero in 2009. After that, they paid $11 million to Aaron Harang, as part of a four-year deal that bought out two option years. They paid $9.5 million to Bronson Arroyo.

That's it. Every other player was either under team control (Brandon Phillips was signed to a long-term deal, but 2009 would have been one of his arbitration years) or cost them less than $5 million. (Thanks to Cot's Contracts for the data for both teams.)

That's almost $100 million in what we might call expensive-player spending for the Mets, and about $30 million for the Reds. It is absolutely clear that a team like the Mets can afford to drop $12 million for 80 innings if it wants to, while a team like the Reds just can't. And if the Reds sign a player to a contract they end up regretting, it hurts them much more than it hurts the Mets. This is really elementary stuff--a doctor can probably afford that jacuzzi, whereas someone like me just can't. Closers are like jacuzzis. I think that's all Huntington was saying.

History won't be kind to recent versions of the Mets. That's true. But to suggest that has much to do with their decisions to spend heavily on closers is strange and confusing. History won't be kind to them because they were expensive, poorly-constructed teams who suffered two straight September collapses before coming completely unglued in 2009. But their decisions to invest big bucks on closers are only small parts of that, probably very small parts. While the Wagner signing in particular wasn't the world's best idea, it was far from the worst--after all, he pitched brilliantly for the Mets for the better part of three years.

The Mets had a jacuzzi in Wagner, and for several years it worked just fine. And if Minaya had bothered to build a bathtub by having some other relievers handy, the loss of the jacuzzi in 2008 wouldn't have caused the Mets to stink so badly. The problem with the house the Mets built was that it didn't have a roof, or even very many functioning appliances. With their payroll, they could have built the roof and the bathtub and the jacuzzi, but they didn't.

The 2009 Mets devoted broad swathes of playing time to non-hitters like Daniel Murphy and Omir Santos and Alex Cora and Brian Schneider and Ryan Church and Cory Sullivan and Wilson Valdez. They had so many injuries, and planned for them so poorly, that were times when their lineup resembled a Triple-A team's. Their rotation was also a complete mess behind Santana, with Perez, Livan Hernandez, Tim Redding and Mike Pelfrey all imploding along the way. However history may treat the Mets, if they'd run the rest of their team well, they could have spent exactly as they did on closers and probably had three straight playoff appearances from 2007 to 2009. Not so for the Reds, who simply can't afford to spend 40% of their expensive-player spending on an 80 inning guy. They need to spend that money on stuff like heating and water, not on a jacuzzi.

By the way, you may be wondering what this has to do with Matt Capps, since Huntington addressed the Capps matter elsewhere in his chat and the beginning of Kovacevic's post was about Capps. The answer is, nothing. While a small-payroll team shouldn't pay a closer $12 million, it can certainly afford to pay $3-4 million in arbitration.

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 2: The Red Menace

the red baron — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:35:23 -0000

Um, I think Jocketty is the one on the left.

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I decided I'm going to try and do these in order from best to worst in the division; unfortunately, that now means I have to try and come up with preseason predictions before the offseason is even half over. Not a great idea on my part, really; I should have done them in alphabetical order or something. Oh, well. Too late for such considerations now, I suppose.

Of all the teams in the Central, perhaps none is so enigmatic as the Cincinnati Reds. Every spring for god knows how many years now we've heard the constant refrain, "Look out for the Reds this year. This is the year they finally turn that corner." Now, to be fair, we hear much the same thing about the Pirates, but predictions of Pittsburgh's rise are always couched not in terms of contention, but in terms of near-winning baseball. Thus, even as the predictions are made, our natural inclination toward Piratic indifference kicks in. The Reds, on the other hand, are a different story.

See, the thing about the Reds is this: they have some really, really good players. Players I would love to have on my team. They stole Brandon Phillips from their in-state rivals just a couple offseasons back, right from under the Cards' noses, even as Junior Spivey was busily reminding us not all reclamation projects end up reclaiming anything. Sometimes the ship stays sunk. (By the by, I'm proud to say I was one of the people hoping and advocating for the Cards to bring in Phillips. Sadly, our voices were not heard.) The Reds have some outstanding young arms. Their closer is one of the better ones in the business. (Still not worth his contract, but that's another issue entirely.) The right fielder is the guy the Cardinals really wanted in 2005; they chose Colby Rasmus specifically because he was the most similar player to Jay Bruce in the draft. There is some real talent here.

Yet somehow, year after year, those cries which warn us of the approaching Cincinnati domination always turn out to be wrong. Every year the Reds find some way not to win. It's gotten to the point I almost fear the offseason when no one cautions against the Reds; perhaps the spell will then be broken and this long-benighted franchise will step fully into the light. Or, perhaps not.

Either way, a little insurance can't possibly be a bad thing.

This is the year, folks. Watch out for the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Record: 78-84, 13 games out of first

Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (673 runs scored, 723 allowed)

It was another disappointing year for the Reds, who came into the 2009 season with one of the most promising teams Cincinnati has seen in years. There was tons of optimism, and rightfully so; the Reds' rotation was immensely talented and young, just beginning to come into its own. Unfortunately, the struggles of youth and the injury bugbear combined to rob the Reds of their pitching bite, and the offense simply wasn't good enough to compensate.

Offense: After years of watching the Dunn/Griffey led Reds mash their way through the division while failing to hold anyone to less than seven runs per game, the 2009 Reds were a positively anemic change of pace. The Cardinals were not a particularly prolific offensive team, but the Reds made them look positively potent by comparison. (I'm feeling quite loquacious this morning, by the way. Does it show?) The Cardinals scored 730 runs, 57 more than the limp-lumbered lads from Cincy. Nearly six wins worth of offensive production is nothing to sneeze at.

While the Reds' problems at the platter in 2009 were legion, one can point to two areas in particular which acted as anchors around the necks of the Redlegs. On the one hand, you have the outfield. Then, on the other hand, you have the infield.

One of the more glaring issues for the Reds was the appallingly average sophomore slump of Jay Bruce, who followed up what was a very encouraging debut season with, essentially, the exact same performance. Not that that's the worst thing in the world, mind you; Bruce's OPS+ was 97 in '08 and 100 in '09, making him exactly league average, but this is Jay F. Bruce we're talking about here. He's young, yes, but you still don't expect him to be duking it out with Skip Schumaker for the title of Averagest HItter in all Baseballdom.

The good news, for Cincinnati fans at least, is this: Jay Bruce is still a better hitter than what he's shown in the majors. I feel completely confident in saying I still expect Bruce to be a star, given time to grow and better health. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the rest of the Reds' outfield. This is, after all, a team which paid Willy Taveras actual, honest to god money to post a .559 OPS over the course of 400+ at-bats. Laynce Nix proved a source of superfluous Y's and steroid speculation, but little else. (Well, except against the Cardinals, that is.) He did put up an OPS+ of 98, but from a left fielder, you've got to expect a bit more thump. The lone real bright spot for the Reds was Johnny Gomes, who hit quite well in the Great American Bandbox, to the tune of an .879 OPS. Unfortunately, Johnny Gomes plays defense like Chris Duncan using an oven mitt. Still, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

On the infield, things were a bit more of a mixed bag. The right side of the Reds' gamut of grounder grabbers was brilliant, with Joey Votto establishing himself as a legitimate force (OPS of .981 for the season), and Brandon Phillips turning in another of his usual five-tool showcase performances. The left side of the infield, however, oy. Not so much. Paul Janish and Adam Rosales took the lion's shares of at-bats at shortstop and third base, respectively, and both posted OPS's in the low .600s. (Janish took the low .600s thing to the extreme, posting a .601.) Jerry Hairston played a fair amount at various positions all over the diamond and was a little better, though he still wasn't inspiring shock and awe in too many opposing pitchers.

Now that's the bad news. The good news (again, for Reds' fans), is that there will be different faces at several positions for 2010. Drew Stubbs, the Reds' uber-athletic Mike Cameron clone, came up late in the season and displayed a wide base of exciting tools in center field. Stubbs has speed, he has power, and he can go get it with the best of them in the field. The only thing holding him back is his tendency to take lots and lots of empty swings. Sort of a center field version of Tyler Greene.

The other big upgrade the Reds can count on is, of course, our old buddy Scott Rolen. Rolen came over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade and played quite well for the Reds, hitting .270/.364/.401 and playing defense which was nearly Rolenesque. The Rolen of old is gone and he's never coming back, but the new model is still a substantial upgrade over what the Reds were trotting out most of the season.

Starting Pitching

What was supposed to be the biggest strength for the Reds ended up helping to drag them down. As the year opened, there were some touting the Reds' 1-2 rotation punch of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto as the best in the National League, and perhaps one of the best in all of baseball. Sadly, Volquez succumbed to injury, having Tommy John surgery in early August, and Cueto seemed to take a step backward from his rookie campaign, even though he ended up with a lower ERA for the season. Cueto started off hot, then imploded in the late summer months, allowing an opponent's OPS of 1.026(!) in July and .938 in August. He did turn things around a bit at the end of the season, pitching better in September, but it wasn't enough to wash away the sins of the previous two months.

As strange as it sounds, Bronson Arroyo actually had sort of an okay year. Sort of. Kind of. He went 15-13, 3.84, gave up less hits than innings pitched (214 H in 220.1 IP), and struck out almost twice as many batters as he walked. Now, as to how he did it, I honestly have no idea. Every time I saw Arroyo, he was being yanked out of the game after giving up five runs in two and a third. He's basically Swamp Gas II: the Swampening at this point for me. Homer Bailey continued to frustrate those of us who believe prospect ranking should count for something, damn it, by not turning into Nolan Ryan, but there were positive signs. While his overall numerical profile doesn't inspire much confidence, Bailey did pitch extraordinarily well in September, going 4-1, 2.08 and striking out 42 batters in 43.1 innings while walking 19. Let's put it this way: if Walt or Dusty decide Homer's just not going to work out up there, I would be more than happpy to take him off their hands.

Elsewhere in the Reds' rotation, Aaron Harang was bad again, Micah Owings was a really good hitter, and Kip Wells gave Cincinnati a taste of the 2007 Cardinal magic.

The rotation could very well still be a strength in 2010 for the Reds. If Bailey really has turned a corner and Cueto can find a bit of his early-season magic after Memorial Day, Cincy could have a nice tandem atop the rotation. Add Volquez possibly returning for the stretch run, and that's an intriguing trio. And as much as it pains me to say it, you could probably do worse than Bronson Arroyo and the Harangutan for your 4th and 5th spots. (Then again, for what the Reds are paying those guys, they could also do miles better.)

Bullpen

And now we come to the real strength of the Cincinnati Reds: their bullpen. (I'll take 'Sentences I Never Expected to Speak' for $600, Alex.) After years of wandering in the desert, searching for relievers, the Reds seem to have finally found the guys to put the kibosh on any late-inning uprisings.

Francisco Cordero is not worth his contract. We'll just get that out of the way up front. Nonetheless, he's a very, very good pitcher even as he enters his mid 30s, posting a 2.16 ERA last season. He could fall off a cliff, but I don't think he will. I think we're just going to have to put up with him being good for the near future. Maybe we could get Spiezio to sober up and just pinch-hit during series with Cincinnati...

The biggest difference for the Reds between 2009 and past seasons was the emergence of Nick Masset and Danny Ray Herrera, the Screwball Kid himself, as legitimate setup men. In the past, even when the Reds had a player who could shut the door at the end of the game (remember when Todd Coffey looked like a good pitcher for like three months? Wasn't that weird?), there was nothing in the way of a bridge to get there. With Masset and Herrera, the Reds finally have that bridge.

The rest of the Redleg relief corps was solid but nothing spectacular. Arthur Rhodes was good, making me wish the Cardinals had more Rhodehouse and less Diner, but secondary LOOGY certainly isn't anything to get too very upset about.

Offseason Priorities

To be honest, I'm not sure how much Walt Jocketty and the rest of his communist cronies are going to be doing this offseason. The very same thing that makes the Reds such an intriguing team is the thing which makes them so difficult to improve. The Reds are a transitional team, and the opportunity cost of bringing in marginal upgrades may just prove to be a bit too steep. Add in the fact Cincinnati appears to have very little breathing room in terms of payroll, and I think it will likely be a relatively quiet offseason for Jocketty and Co.

The two big opportunities for the Reds to make upgrades are at shortstop and left field; unfortunately, upgrading at either of those spots is easier said than done this winter. The Reds lack the financial capacity to get into the bidding for either of the big LF prizes, Holliday or Jason Bay, and most of the other players available would represent a middling upgrade at best. The Reds have two players in their system, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey, who both could see time in left in 2010. Frazier is a third baseman by trade, but earns his keep mostly with the bat, and could see outfield time a la Allen Craig just to get him into the lineup. Heisy is a speedy, plus-defense type with a line-drive swing and fair on-base skills. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds bring back Gomes as a LF/1B guy on days when Votto isn't playing and try to work one or both of Heisy/ Frazier in slowly with ABs in left.

Shortstop, on the other hand, might be a bit more interesting. There aren't a whole lot of guys out there, but there are a couple decent names. If the Reds were looking for an offensive upgrade, either Miguel Tejada or Felipe Lopez could offer a bat for a fair value. Of course, both have significant questions surrounding their abilities to play shortstop, but hey, I said offensive upgrade. If Cincinnati decided to go more for a defense-first guy, Orlando Cabrera can still pick it with the best of them. Regardless, I think shortstop is the most likely position to look toward if the Reds are going to make a move this offseason.

I'm sure Jocketty and Baker would like to pick up a more dependable arm for depth in the rotation, but I'm not sure they'll have the payroll to do so. The Reds are already paying Harang and Arroyo gobs of money; they may try to deal for an arm but I don't see a signing there. The bullpen actually needs the least help of all; they may sign a guy to replace Rhodes if he leaves or something like that, but I think the relief corps is largely set.

The Bottom Line

Do I think the Reds are going to be better than Milwaukee? I must, since I did them before the Brew Crew, right? The answer is a decided and unequivocal maybe. I think the Reds have the potential, certainly, to improve more than probably any other team in the division, simply based on their young talent base. I think the Brewers largely are who we think they are, a team of tremendous offensive talent and very, very limited pitching resources. The Reds, on the other hand, have a lot of untapped potential on both sides of the equation, and depending on how things break, they could vault up the standing in the Central or remain the same enigmatic bunch of underachievers they have been for years now.

I think the addition of Scott Rolen was a cataclysmically bad one, but, paradoxically, I also believe he'll make the Reds better in the coming season. He should provide just enough offense while helping the pitchers out significantly.

In the end, the success or failure of the Reds' 2010 season will likely have little to do with what, if any, moves Walt Jocketty makes this winter. Rather, the fate of the first season of the new decade (eat it, Matty!), will hinge largely on the three pillars upon which we've been told Cincinnati's new glory would be built for years: Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto. If those three are the players they were thought to be on the way up, the Reds could very well make some noise. If not, it could be another very long summer in the home of the world's shittiest chili.

The Baron's Playlist for the 16th of December, 2009: the Christmas Catalogue

(In no particular order, by the way)

"Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
"Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (listen closely; she's actually saying fucking pie. Seriously.)
"You're All I Want for Christmas" - Brook Benton
"A Change at Christmas (Say it Isn't So)" - the Flaming Lips
"Merry Xmas Everybody" - Slade
"Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (this is the song that will one day force me to pull to the side of the road and cry when my mother is gone)
"White Christmas" - The Drifters (sorry, but this one is way, way better than the Bing Crosby version)
"Happy Christmas (War is Over)" - John Lennon and Yoko Ono
"Blue Christmas" - Elvis Presley
"Happy Holidays" - Alabama (I really, really hate Alabama, but I loved this song when I was a kid listening to the old True Value Hardware Christmas records)
"We're Going to the Country!" - Sufjan Stevens
"Peace on Earth/ Little Drummer Boy" - David Bowie and Bing Crosby
"Marshmallow World" - Dean Martin
"God Rest Ye, Merry Gentlemen" - Nat King Cole (another True Value special)
"Frosty the Snowman" - The Ronettes
"Jingle Bells" - Glenn Miller
"I'll Be Home for Christmas" - Frank Sinatra
"I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" - Gayla Peevey
"Christmastime is Here" - The Vince Guaraldi Trio (sadly, this song underwent one of the worst remasters I believe I've ever heard just a couple years ago; find the old, unremastered version.)
"Christmas Wrapping" - the Waitresses (this song is utter crap. I fucking love it.)

I'm going to stop at 20. It's tough for me to do, but I'm going to do it.

Heroes of the Zeros: The Bullpen

Slyde — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:00:28 -0000

As we continue our vote on the Reds All Decade Team, we look today at the bullpen. The Reds bullpen was a strength in the early aughts, but it also had some very lean periods in the middle of the decade before rebounding a bit the last two seasons. Below you will see the 28 relievers who managed to pitch 60 or more games out of the bullpen for the Reds between 2000 and 2009. The survey below will have you choose a closer, 2 right-handed relievers, 2 left-handed relievers, and 2 other relievers of your choice. Please be careful not to choose a pitcher for more than one spot as I will only count a single vote for that player.

One note before you vote, I didn't feel like doing the extra work it would take to separate a pitcher's relief appearances from his starts, so some of the stats below include starts as well as relief appearances. This mainly only affects Danny Graves (30 GS), Chris Reitsma (53 GS), and Matt Belisle (43 GS) with a couple other pitchers having a handful of starts in their numbers. Please try to take that into account when considering a player as best you can. Voting can be done after the jump.

Other ballots: Starting Rotation

Click header to sort table by column
	Years	G	W	L	W-L%	SV	IP	ERA	ERA+	FIP	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SO/9	BB/9	HR/9
Jeremy Affeldt	2008	74	1	1	.500	0	78.1	3.33	133	3.72	.260	.323	.410	.733	9.19	2.87	1.03
Matt Belisle	2003-2008	132	16	22	.421	1	341.2	5.06	89	4.54	.302	.351	.472	.823	6.06	2.53	1.24
Bill Bray	2006-2008	111	7	6	.538	3	89.0	3.84	118	3.40	.278	.348	.433	.780	9.20	3.84	0.81
Jim Brower	2001-2002	68	9	10	.474	1	168.2	3.95	114	4.49	.250	.328	.406	.734	6.30	3.74	1.01
Jared Burton	2007-2009	154	10	3	.769	0	161.0	3.47	128	3.73	.238	.322	.368	.690	7.77	3.91	0.73
Todd Coffey	2005-2008	213	12	9	.571	9	206.1	4.62	98	4.58	.311	.366	.476	.842	5.98	2.75	1.22
Francisco Cordero	2008-2009	140	7	10	.412	73	137.0	2.76	158	3.42	.238	.329	.327	.656	8.93	4.47	0.53
Jon Coutlangus	2007	64	4	2	.667	0	41.0	4.39	105	4.57	.250	.373	.362	.735	8.34	5.93	0.66
Danny Graves	2000-2005	318	29	35	.453	147	526.0	4.16	105	4.62	.279	.331	.451	.782	4.59	2.58	1.16
Daniel Ray Herrera	2008-2009	77	4	4	.500	0	69.0	3.52	122	4.00	.283	.354	.419	.772	6.78	3.52	0.78
Mike Lincoln	2008-2009	83	3	6	.333	0	93.1	5.40	81	5.66	.269	.357	.465	.822	6.36	4.15	1.64
Gary Majewski	2006-2008	88	2	6	.250	0	78.0	7.38	61	4.73	.388	.429	.562	.992	5.31	2.54	1.15
Nick Masset	2008-2009	84	6	1	.857	0	93.1	2.31	186	3.65	.213	.276	.334	.610	7.81	2.80	0.87
Hector Mercado	2000-2001	68	3	2	.600	0	67.0	4.16	111	4.26	.262	.354	.418	.772	9.67	5.10	1.07
Kent Mercker	2003-2008	179	5	4	.556	5	142.0	3.36	129	4.72	.256	.336	.447	.783	6.91	3.99	1.27
Phil Norton	2003-2004	86	2	5	.286	0	80.1	4.59	92	4.10	.263	.359	.380	.740	6.16	4.93	0.56
Brian Reith	2001-2004	73	4	12	.250	1	127.2	5.92	73	6.16	.292	.381	.542	.923	5.99	5.01	1.83
Chris Reitsma	2001-2003	125	22	32	.407	12	404.1	4.52	97	4.57	.280	.329	.456	.785	5.19	2.52	1.20
Dennys Reyes	2000-2001	97	4	7	.364	0	96.2	4.75	98	4.74	.254	.363	.395	.757	8.19	5.96	0.93
Arthur Rhodes	2009	66	1	1	.500	0	53.1	2.53	169	3.14	.198	.276	.299	.576	8.10	3.38	0.51
John Riedling	2000-2004	200	13	12	.520	3	274.1	4.13	104	4.37	.256	.345	.385	.730	5.97	4.43	0.69
Brian Shackelford	2005-2006	63	2	0	1.000	0	46.0	4.11	107	5.20	.229	.333	.388	.722	6.26	3.72	1.17
Mike Stanton	2007	69	1	3	.250	0	57.2	5.93	78	4.26	.315	.374	.462	.836	6.24	2.81	0.94
Scott Sullivan	2000-2003	279	22	12	.647	4	338.0	4.05	111	4.21	.246	.326	.408	.734	7.96	3.49	1.14
Ryan Wagner	2003-2005	108	8	4	.667	0	119.0	4.69	90	4.38	.274	.354	.410	.764	7.64	4.24	0.98
David Weathers	2005-2009	325	20	23	.465	61	336.1	3.56	126	4.37	.239	.317	.390	.707	6.21	3.67	0.96
Gabe White	2000-2004	137	10	3	.769	1	128.2	4.34	98	4.25	.256	.289	.467	.756	6.92	1.54	1.47
Scott Williamson	2000-2003	155	13	15	.464	35	229.0	3.14	143	3.53	.209	.326	.329	.655	10.73	5.42	0.71

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/14/2009.

Trade Target: Maicer Izturis

Slyde — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:19:20 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Is Maicer Izturis the potential answer to the Reds 2010 needs at shortstop?

Browse more photos »

Ed Price at MLB Fanhouse is reporting this morning that the Angels could move infielder Maicer Izturis in a deal this off-season. The 29-year old Izturis is a switch-hitter who has played a mix of 2B, SS, and 3B in his big league career and he's played all 3 fairly well defensively. Offensively, he's a career .278/.343/.393 hitter, though his power has been slightly more developed over the last couple of seasons (he slugged .434 in 2009). He shows decent, though not great patience (8.7% career walk rate), but he's only struck out in 11% of his plate appearances. Since we know that he would bat 2nd for the Reds, it's nice to know that he gets on base at a good rate and that he handles the bat pretty well to be able to do the things that Dusty would ask him to do while batting 2nd.

His hitting projections for 2010 look solidly average (only have these two systems for Izturis so far):

Projection	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Bill James	.283	.348	.392	.329
CHONE	.279	.346	.394	.331

Compare that to Paul Janish:

Projection	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Bill James	.223	.301	.319	.276
CHONE	.237	.311	.350	.298
ZiPS	.239	.310	.340

Janish's best projection still puts him about 15 runs offensively behind Izturis over 600 PA. CHONE rates them both as +5 defensively, so an acquisition of Izturis would likely bring the Reds about a win and a half in 2010.

I think Izturis is definitely somebody the Reds should pursue. One-and-a-half WAR is not a huge amount, but Izturis will likely not make more than $2.5-3 million next season, so it would definitely be a cost-effective upgrade. The question is what will the Reds have to give up. Price says in his article that the Angels are looking for a corner outfielder and bullpen help. I'm not sure if they'd have any interest in Jonny Gomes, and he's probably the most viable candidate as an outfield centerpiece to a deal.

That means the Reds probably need to go the relief route. Arthur Rhodes could be a potential candidate for dealing, and the money/contract situation would be similar (both players are free agents after 2010). Given Rhodes' age, I think the Reds should be willing to give him up in a deal since he's a definite risk to have a big dropoff any day now. I'd also consider Daniel Ray Herrera or Jared Burton available as part of a package. And of course, if the Angels wanted to take Francisco Cordero's contract, I'm sure the Reds would even be willing to chip in a couple million to make it worth the effort.

What do you think? Should the Reds pursue Izturis? Do they have a package of players to get it done?

(h/t nycredsfan)

Sabermetric Review of the 2009 Reds, Part 4: Pitching

JinAZ — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:14:43 -0000

To recap thus far, 2009 saw the offense drop considerably, the fielding improve dramatically, with a net effect being that the 2009 position players were probably at least as good, if not slightly better than the 2008 Reds squad of position players.

What about the 2009 pitchers? Since the fate of a pitcher in the boxscore is directly tied to the fielders playing behind him, we need to adjust for fielders. Here are three ways of doing that, and how the last several years of Reds pitchers have fared using each approach:

Here's what is shown above:

UZR-adj Runs Allowed is straight-up runs allowed (park adjusted), with UZR-based team fielding factored out. For example, this year, UZR rates the Reds as a +53 fielding team. So, I added 53 runs to the runs allowed total to "simulate" what would have happened with an average-fielding team.
FIP-based runs allowed uses team FIP to estimate runs allowed per game, and then extrapolates to the full season. FIP stands for "fielding independent runs," and uses K, BB, HBP, and HR rates to estimate runs allowed independent of a teams' fielders or context. I park-adjusted K, BB, HBP, and HR rates.
tRA-based runs allowed is straight-up pRAA from statcorner, summed for starters and relievers. It is based on tRA, which is billed as a sort of "FIP on steroids." It uses K, BB, and all batted ball rates (LD, FB, GB, HR/FB, all park adjusted) to estimate runs allowed in a manner that again should be independent of fielders or context. I am unclear if pRAA is based on tRA or tRA* (tRA* is the regressed version).

As you can see, the UZR-adjusted number is more volatile, which makes sense given that it's based on actual runs allowed and thus is subject to all kinds of "luck" (not to mention the volatility of a fielding stat!). The FIP and tRA stats, on the other hand, basically parallel each other, with pRAA being consistently more negative about the team than FIP. These two stats do largely the same thing (though with somewhat different input data and methods), and in my experience are usually within spitting distance of each other. So while I'm not surprised to see them running parallel, I am surprised to see such a large quantitative difference between them in RAA. It seems to me, at least over the last four years, that the "real" data (UZR-adjusted runs allowed) have more closely matched FIP, which makes me more inclined to believe FIP. Maybe pRAA is using the wrong baseline (I'm comparing to all NL pitchers), or is more severe in its park adjustments? (fwiw, while I still like tRA, I am much less enamored with it--and much less ready to ditch FIP--than I was, say, 6 months ago. This is just the latest reason).

Anyway, looking at each line individually, you can see that all three statistics point to the same thing: pitching fell off a bit this year. And, if you look at just the FIP or tRA lines, it was in its worst state since Bronson Arroyo's arrival in 2006. What happened? Obviously, the Volquez injury was huge. But that's not the only story here. Player by player breakdowns below the jump.

The table is sortable if you click in the header.

Name	IP	pLI	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	GB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WARra	WARfip	WARhit	WAR
Aaron Harang	162.3	0.9	7.9	2.4	1.3	12%	35%	0.339	4.21	3.96	2.5	2.7	0.0	2.7
Bronson Arroyo	220.3	1.0	5.2	2.7	1.3	12%	45%	0.270	3.84	4.63	4.5	2.0	-0.2	1.7
Johnny Cueto	171.3	0.9	6.9	3.2	1.3	11%	42%	0.296	4.41	4.63	2.3	1.5	0.1	1.6
Francisco Cordero	66.7	1.9	7.8	4.1	0.3	3%	41%	0.301	2.16	3.10	2.8	1.6	0.0	1.6
Nick Masset	76.0	1.1	8.3	2.8	0.7	10%	54%	0.250	2.37	3.25	2.4	1.2	0.0	1.2
Arthur Rhodes	53.3	1.5	8.1	3.4	0.5	5%	41%	0.249	2.53	3.10	2.0	1.1	0.0	1.1
Homer Bailey	113.3	1.0	6.8	4.1	1.0	9%	43%	0.306	4.53	4.38	1.4	1.3	-0.3	1.0
Micah Owings	119.7	1.0	5.1	4.8	1.4	11%	37%	0.286	5.34	5.53	0.4	-0.1	1.1	1.0
Jared Burton	59.3	0.9	6.8	3.5	0.8	6%	43%	0.314	4.40	3.75	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.5
Daniel Ray Herrera	61.7	0.8	6.4	3.5	0.7	9%	50%	0.309	3.06	3.91	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.5
Josh Roenicke	13.3	0.2	9.5	2.7	0.0	0%	47%	0.355	2.70	2.03	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.4
Matt Maloney	40.7	0.9	6.2	1.8	2.0	13%	34%	0.282	4.87	5.16	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.3
Carlos Fisher	52.3	0.5	8.3	5.3	0.7	7%	44%	0.316	4.47	4.02	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3
Paul Janish	2.0	0.0	13.5	9.0	9.0	50%	50%	0.726	49.50	14.99	-0.1	-0.1	0.3	0.2
Edinson Volquez	49.7	1.1	8.5	5.8	1.1	14%	45%	0.231	4.35	4.99	0.8	0.3	-0.2	0.1
Robert Manuel	4.3	0.2	4.2	2.1	0.0	0%	33%	0.329	0.00	2.97	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1
Kip Wells	46.3	0.9	4.9	4.3	1.0	11%	49%	0.232	4.66	5.15	0.6	0.1	-0.1	0.0
Ramon Ramirez	12.3	0.6	5.8	2.9	1.5	11%	37%	0.183	3.65	5.03	0.2	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Pedro Viola	7.0	0.4	6.4	3.9	2.6	18%	38%	0.253	5.14	6.43	0.0	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
David Weathers	38.0	1.6	6.4	4.0	1.7	15%	43%	0.200	3.32	5.23	1.0	-0.3	0.0	-0.3
Justin Lehr	65.3	0.9	4.6	3.9	1.9	16%	40%	0.277	5.37	6.09	0.4	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4
Mike Lincoln	23.0	0.7	3.5	7.4	2.7	23%	44%	0.283	8.22	8.75	-0.6	-0.7	0.0	-0.7

Notes on table: pLI is an indication of the leverage of the situations in which a pitcher pitched. pLI = 1 on average, pLI=2 when situations are twice as influential on game outcome as usual, pLI=0.5 when situations are half as influential on game outcome as usual. FIP is Fielding Independent Runs, with park adjustments for each coefficient (see above). WARra is Wins Above Replacement based on actual runs charged to a pitcher (park adjusted). It is calculated following Tango's methods, including the leverage adjustment. WARfip is WAR based on FIP. WARhit is an overall hitting assessment, which will be different from the last post because I discovered I was using much too low of a position adjustment for pitchers (sorry!). WAR is the sum of WARfip and WARhit.

Bronson Arroyo had the best season of the group based on traditional stats, and is our official 2009 Reds Pitcher of the Year. Clearly, he's the only one who topped 200 innings, and that has a lot of value in and of itself. Harang, in contrast, seemingly had another sub-par season, at least by his standards. This was especially true with respect to durability: thanks to his appendix, he only reached 162 innings this season, his lowest total since 2004.

But as Slyde showed recently, the major driving factor behind the differences in these two pitchers was actually some combination of fielding and luck: Harang's batted balls became hits 34% of the time compared to just 27% with Arroyo. In fact, if you look at his peripherals, Harang had a better strikeout rate (by a lot), a better walk rate, and an equivalent home run allowed rate (with identical HR/F rates) to Arroyo. Based on this, and despite his much lower innings total, Harang comes in as the more valuable pitcher this year...by a full win...over Arroyo!

I'm actually a bit concerned about Arroyo. His strikeout rate dropped considerably this year. Although he was improved in the second half, my pet belief is that Arroyo's success depends largely on his strikeout rate. Then again, he's shown large fluctuations in strikeout rate in the past, so hopefully this is just a blip. The Reds need him to be a 2-win pitcher next year if they're going to do anything.

Johnny Cueto had by most accounts a very successful season. He started strong, but seemed to taper off as the season wore on, perhaps due to workload: he pitched in both winterball and the WBC last winter, which is far too many innings for my comfort. I'd like to see him get back into the 8+ k/9 range where he was in 2008--if he does, he could be a force.

Homer Bailey had a heck of a turnaround season. Citing some changes in his delivery that occurred during the offseason, Bailey started slow, but then something seemed to just "click." The result was a tremendously successful final few months of the season. I still don't know if what we saw was real or not, but I sure hope it was. Given his playing time, he probably has the biggest error bars around his projection of any pitcher on this team, and perhaps across the entire league.

Micah Owings has probably the most interesting row on the list. As a pitcher, he wasn't very impressive. Low strikeout rate, VERY high walk rate, and low ground ball rates do not tend to lead to success. But the amazing thing is that he was able to couple that replacement-level pitching performance with hitting that clocks in right at league average. The result? A 1 WAR pitcher. You can do worse from your #5 starter. Or long reliever/pinch hitter. Whatever he is these days. Fascinating player.

Speaking of the bullpen, it sure looked excellent this year. Cordero, Rhodes, and the revelational Nick Masset combined for sub-3 ERA's and low-3 FIP's. Jared Burton (FIP 3.75), Danny Herrera (seems like the screwball works, at least on lefties), and Carlos Fisher (scary walks) also performed adequately in middle relief. If Bill Bray comes back strong following Tommy John, this could be a great young relief core moving forward. Well, minus Rhodes, because he's old.

Speaking of old, Cordero's line looks a little shaky from where I sit. His strikeout rate has gone from 12 k/9 in 2007 to 10 k/9 in 2008 to 8 k/9 in 2009. His walk rate was about where it is supposed to be, but his home run rate is artificially low, thanks to an extremely lucky HR per Fly Ball rate of 3%. I don't know if it's related, but he threw a lot more fastballs this year than last (63% vs. ~50% in prior seasons)...maybe the slider wasn't working as well as it used to? The Reds owe him two more seasons at $12M per year.

Overall, this wasn't a terrible pitching staff. But it also wasn't a pitching staff that featured any fantastic individual performances. And the rotation wasn't as strong as it has been in recent years, especially with injuries to Edinson Volquez and Harang. Volquez apparently thinks he will be back mid-next season, which could be a nice shot in the arm if the team is able to do anything with the first half. We'll see.

...

Wrap up and looking forward: So, that's your 2009 Reds. Fun in April and September, utterly forgettable in between. I don't know where this team is going, honestly. There are some good parts here. There are solid, steady contributers in Votto, Rolen, Phillips, Harang, and Arroyo. And there is youth with some nice upside in Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Stubbs, and Volquez (when he returns). And there's more help on the way in Frazier, Alonso, and Leake. But it's also a team that is seeing some key players, especially pitchers, start to show signs of aging.

Given this, I wonder if 2010 is the year with the best window for success? And if so, can the cash-strapped Reds do what they need to do--plugging holes, mostly--to put themselves in a position to take advantage of some good fortune if it arrives?

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:40:34 -0000

by Al Behrman - AP

Today is Ryan Braun's 26th birthday. We should all celebrate today by going out and buying a Reme...yeah, I can't even suggest that with a straight face.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while Doug Melvin works the phones.

Casey McGehee finished fifth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, and I must admit that's much better than I expected, even though he was third on my ballot (FanShot). With that said, Brewed Sports has a new word for teams that hold onto players like McGehee too long.

By the way, if you've ever doubted the significance of the compensation picks given to teams for losing free agents: NL Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan was a compensation pick in 2006, after the Marlins lost A.J. Burnett to the Blue Jays.

The exclusive window for teams to negotiate with their own free agents ends on Friday, and it's possible the Brewer drawing the most interest is the most unlikely one: Craig Counsell has reportedly been contacted by 12 teams, and may be able to land a multi-year deal. Counsell had a very nice season in 2009, but if someone gives the 39-year-old utility infielder more than one season of guaranteed money, I hope it's not the Brewers.

Edwin Jackson's name is coming up a fair amount lately, as he may very well be the best combination of high upside and low cost on either the free agent or trade market this offseason. With that said, View From Bernie's Chalet isn't completely sold on Jackson, and wonders if trading for him would be a mistake.

Speaking of pitchers with a potentially high upside, Jorge Says No! has a look at the potential market for Ben Sheets. He lists eight teams that could be interested, and that list doesn't include the Brewers.

Pat Lackey of MLB FanHouse has an overview of the Brewer offseason that features some themes you've likely heard before: The Brewers need pitching, Jarrod Washburn could be a candidate, etc.

As I was working on the Fall/Winter League Update this morning, I noticed a surprise: Carlos Gomez made his debut on Sunday in the Dominican League. Follow the link to see how he and the rest of the Brewers have performed over the last couple of days.

Speaking of active Brewer prospects, you could get one more chance to see a few of them on TV this fall: Saturday's AFL Championship Game will be televised on MLB Network. I wish MLB Network would televise a bunch more AFL games: I was out of the house for the only other telecast, and I'll be missing this one, too.

If you're watching on Saturday, though, you might get to see Lorenzo Cain play for Peoria. Project Prospect ranked him 10th among center field prospects.

Just one note on the transaction wire:

Reds: Signed Ramon Hernandez to a one year deal with a vesting option for 2011.

FanGraphs has a list of all of this year's minor league free agents, a veritable "Who's Who" of guys you'd forgotten were still around. I haven't had a chance to peruse the list yet, but Lookout Landing took the opportunity to remind us all that there's no such thing as a "can't miss" prospect.

How much is too much roster manipulation? The Twins recently added reliever Juan Morillo to their 40-man roster, but not for reasons you'd expect. Morillo was due to become a minor league free agent, but the Twins retained control over his rights so they could sell him to a Japanese League team and pocket his transfer fee, likely to be around $500k.

Putting together an All-Decade Team is hard, but some people make it harder than it needs to be. MLB Notebook, for example, put Francisco Cordero in the bullpen of their All Decade team, but left out Trevor Hoffman. Cordero has had a pretty nice decade, but since the start of the 2000 season Hoffman leads him by 113 saves and half a run in ERA.

On this day in 1997, the Brewers traded lefty reliever Mike Myers to the Rockies for Curtis Leskanic. The deal worked out pretty well for the Crew: Leskanic posted a 3.01 ERA in 169 games as a Brewer.

Happy birthday today to Ryan Braun, who turns 26. Braun is now a two-time All Star starter, a two-time Silver Slugger winner, and in 2009 he was in the top ten in the NL in batting average, slugging, OPS, ABs, runs, hits, total bases, doubles, RBI, extra base hits and HBP.

Oh, and how much easier would it be to travel if road maps were colored like subway maps? (h/t C. Trent Rosecrans)

Drink up.

Cinci Salary Dump?

jscape2000 — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:00:29 -0000

The Post:

The Reds have let teams know they would just about give away Francisco Cordero (two years, $25 million), Bronson Arroyo ($11 million in 2010, $11 million 2011 option with a $2 million buyout) or Willy Taveras ($4 million in 2010).

I know all the negatives about Arroyo- his K/BB ratio is only about 2:1 over the last three season, and he's a fly ball pitcher.

But he's kept his ERA+ between 93-112 in the last 3 seasons and his FIP has been between 4.50 and 4.78 while pitching 200+ innings for 5 straight seasons. I'm not worried about the launching pad worry, because he's coming out of Great American Ballpark, though I would of course worry about the NL to AL dropoff.

If Cashman really could bring Arroyo aboard in a deal reminiscent of the trade for Nick Swisher (the most valuable Wilson Betemit has been in his career), knowing Arroyo would be around for one season with a team option for another, I would bring him on as a 4th starter (resigning Pettitte or signing Lackey remains priority #1).