SB Nation - Jose Lopez

Why Jose Lopez at First Base is a Poor Idea

Matthew — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 07:29:43 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Jose Lopez is willing to throw a temper tantrum right here in the store.

This is not really a pressing issue at the moment, but some future posts are going to build off this concept and it's bound to come up in the future, so consider this a bookmark post. Feel free to refer back when the inevitable happens.

Jose Lopez the last two seasons has posted WARs of 2.0 and 2.6 and was at 2.1 in 2006. His dreadfully awful 2007 really mars the picture, but the outline is still clear. While Lopez has the potential to crater offensively at times, always a possibility with free swinging righties in Safeco Field, he is a decent bet to produce a final 2010 line close to this (figures are relative to league average):

0 run bat
0 run glove
+2.5 positional adjustment
+20 replacement level

That's a 2.25 WAR player, slightly above average. For the $2.5 million that he's slated to earn in 2010, that's a real bargain, on the order of an $8-10 million asset. What would happen if we moved him to first base however?

Well, he would no longer be playing second base, for starts. Second base is a nearly perfect position for Jose Lopez's defensive skill set. He has average range for a second baseman and he turns the double play well. Lopez's problem are the retarded errors that he tends to make, seemingly stemming from lapses in concentration that, along with his hacktastic hitting style, serve to profile him as a lazy player. Moving to first base would probably cut down on his error rate, as first baseman get involved in much fewer plays of the type that lead to errors and their dropped catches are always blamed on the thrower for some reason.

I would expect Lopez then to gain about three runs in defensive value from reduced errors and probably three runs or so from increased range. He would also lose about a run from no longer being involved in double play turns. In the end, about a five run boost in total seems reasonable. Incidentally, that's in close range to the increases in defensive value that Miguel Cabrera (from third base) and Albert Pujols (from left field) saw after moving to first base. Furthermore, moving to first base from a non-catcher or DH role seems to offer no increase in hitting skill.

The downside is that first base carries a 12.5 run penalty with it as it is among the easiest of all positions to fill. Coming from second base, with its 2.5 run bonus, Lopez would see an instant 15 run drop in positional value. Those extra five runs in defensive skill, from being compared to first baseman instead of second baseman, is not enough to make up the difference. Lopez's likely projection at first base would look approximately like this:

Lopez, at first base:
0 run bat
5 run glove
-12.5 positional adjustment
+20 replacement level

Moving Lopez to first base has the net effect of chopping about a whole win off his value. That $8-10 million asset is now a $4-5 million one. In addition, that 1.25 WAR or so does not constitute much of an improvement over what we would expect from Jack Hannahan or Mike Carp, much less from any outside options that may or may not be available.

I've been against it for years, every time it gets brought up in the media, or here, or anywhere. Jose Lopez at first base is a bad idea. It's an inefficient use of resources and represents a fractional upgrade at best over current in house options at the cost of opening a much more difficult hole to fill. If the Mariners find themselves in a situation in which Jose Lopez's services at second base are no longer desired or needed, then a trade is almost certainly going to be the optimal route.

Teams already interested Garrett Atkins

Eli Greenspan — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 18:44:38 -0000

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The Rockies decided to cut ties with third baseman Garrett Atkins after weeks of trying to move the .289 career hitter.

Atkins lost his spot to young up-and-comer Ian Stewart, and had the opportunity to contend to take over at first base, but a disappointing .226 average reduced his time significantly.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Garrett Atkins	126	354	37	80	12	1	9	48	41	58	0	0	.226	.308	.342

While teams are interested, sources say the teams that are pursuing him will only have him on "their own terms." Atkins is just a .252 career hitter on the road, so teams may be hesitant when looking at him.

The Twins, Orioles, and Red Sox are interested in the third baseman, who can now sign with any team. While the Mariners have signed Chone Figgins, sources say they are exploring the possibility of bringing in another third baseman, moving Figgins to second, and sliding Jose Lopez over to first.

He went on to say, however, that that would only happen if the team fails to sign free agent first baseman Russell Branyan.

Scott Boras for Mets GM

Sam Page — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 22:23:52 -0000

Steve Popper gives insight from a Mets' official as to the team's thinking in offering Jason Bay a (rumored) 4 year/$65MM contract. Among the notable points from the piece:

The Mets wanted a bat and with Daniel Murphy locked it at first base

Daniel Murphy: .741 OPS. I guess if the Mets finally get a decent left fielder, they need to put the big offensive downside in the only more important offensive position. You know, just to make things interesting.

- They think his swing fits Citi Field.

He's a righty pull-hitter, which (we think) is slightly better than being a left pull-hitter in Citi Field. That's a consideration, but not really a deal breaker. If they really want to get some righty pull-power, and to replace Castillo, might I suggest Jose Lopez.

- Despite the numbers, they like him defensively over Holliday.

That's not surprising.

- Again, despite what Boras said, they insist he is a better athlete than Holliday.

However, despite Bay's citizenship, they insist Holliday is more Canadian.

- Have we mentioned that the Mets don’t have to deal with Boras if they go for Holliday.

You haven't, but good point.

Well I'm not so sure they're just bidding on bay to bring down Holliday's price now.

Mariners, Chone Figgins in serious negotiations

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:29:16 -0000

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FOXSPORTS.com's John Paul Morosi is reporting that the Mariners are the frontrunners for free agent infielder Chone Figgins.

Talks are expected to heat up next week in Indianapolis at the Winter Meetings, which MLBDD will be covering live.

Figgins would replace Adrian Beltre as the teams third baseman, assuming Beltre does not accept the teams arbitration offer. In the event that he does accept the offer, Figgins can move to second base and Jose Lopez can be moved to first.

With Placido Polanco signing in Philadelphia for three years and 18 million dollars earlier today, Figgins can expect a deal in the 25-35 million dollar range.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Placido Polanco	153	618	82	176	31	4	10	72	36	46	7	2	.285	.331	.396

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Chone Figgins	158	615	114	183	30	7	5	54	101	114	42	17	.298	.395	.393

First and foremost, Figgins is four years younger than Polanco and was far superior on the base paths, evident by his runs, walks, and stolen bases numbers compared to Polanco's. Polanco is one of the top defensive infielders in the game, winning his second Gold Glove last season. Figgins turned 36 double plays last season with a 16.7 UZR.

For the Mariners, it is an interesting move considering they were expected to be players for a big name bat. However, Figgins would solidify the top of the order and give some of their young guys more opportunities to drive in runs.

The Angels are still considering Figgins and are still very much in play for his services in 2010.

Mariners moving Jose Lopez to first base?

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:29:15 -0000

More photos » by Jim Bryant - AP

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FOXSports.com's is reporting that the Mariners could consider moving Jose Lopez to first baseman and pursue one of the available second baseman. After making 15 errors at second base, moving him to the less demanding first base is intriguing.

A very interesting move considering their first baseman in 2009, Russell Branyan, clubbed 31 home runs and seems interested in returning. However, with two available Gold Glove winners in Placido Polanco and Orlando Hudson, they could solidfy their infield while adding a bat that can hit for average.

A lot will depend on how the market plays out this offseason.

Points Of Contention: Jose Lopez's Offense

Jeff — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 01:05:05 -0000

We can just skip the whole background section, right? To many, Lopez's improvement as a hitter is a sign of things to come. To others, Lopez is a decent but by no means extraordinary bat that is approaching a plateau. Figuring out which it is will be of considerable importance as the Zduriencik front office works to move the team forward. So: is Jose Lopez turning into the guy a lot of people thought he'd be back when he was a prospect, or is the likelihood that he's just about maxed out?

I'll try to be as brief as possible.

The first thing to understand is where Lopez is as a hitter right now. And for this, it's imperative that you're able to look past the round, pretty 25 home runs he just hit. Over the last two years, Lopez has posted a .765 OPS, a .327 raw wOBA, and has been 0-5 runs above average after adjusting for park. Perfectly acceptable, of course, but far from great; for all intents and purposes, he's been about as good as Fred Lewis. Nobody considers Fred Lewis a great hitter or anything, right? Okay.

Now, Lopez has made it abundantly clear that he prefers to be aggressive at the plate. He's consistently posted above-average swing rates and O-Swing rates, with his Z-Swing rates fluctuating between average and above-average. What this means is that, while Lopez likes to swing, he doesn't always have the best judgment. Which should come as a surprise to no one. He's not exactly an injudicious hacker or anything, but he's a free swinger, and both Chone Figgins and Adam Dunn drew more unintentional walks in 2009 than Lopez has drawn since 2004.

Plate discipline doesn't usually change very much over a player's career, at least not until he gets old. You'll see some guys make incremental improvements and other guys lose their feel, but by and large, if you're aggressive when you come up, you're aggressive through your peak. With Jose Lopez, then, we shouldn't expect to see him learn a different approach. Better numbers could make pitchers throw him fewer pitches in the zone, but he's unlikely to get much better at identifying what's a strike and what's a ball. He is what he is.

Not drawing a lot of walks means that an aggressive hitter is leaving a source of potentially significant value on the table. In order to be successful and productive, then, he has to make up for this by doing one or some or even all of the following:

(1) Make contact

(2) Run well

(3) Put the ball on the ground (closely related to #2, really)

(4) Hit for power

Vladimir Guerrero is perhaps the most obvious example of a hacker who's made it work. He's made it work by, throughout most of his career, pulling off #1, #2, and #4. Alfonso Soriano's gone with #2 and #4. Ichiro, of course, favors #3 over #4 to go with his #'s 1 and 2, allowing him to beat out a ton of grounders. It's a different path, but not necessarily a worse one. The point is, aggressiveness, on its own, is not a problem. You don't have to be Nick Johnson if you want to have a career.

Now let's look at how Jose Lopez does here:

(1) Check. Lopez's career contact rate is 86%, well north of the ~80% league average. He's a free swinger, but he's a free swinger who's able to get the bat on the ball an awful lot.

(2) No dice. Lopez may have stolen 31 bags as an 18 year old, but these days he's a big boy. Not that I'd call him slow or anything, but his 12 infield hits last year tied him with Kevin Youkilis, Dunn, and Jason Bay.

(3) Not anymore. Lopez used to have an above-average groundball rate, but he's trended away from that, finishing just outside the bottom third in 2009.

(4) Check, sort of. Lopez hit 17 homers in 2008 and 25 homers in 2009, posting a .191 Isolated Slugging Percentage well above his career mark. This power has been what's elevated Lopez from what he was in 2006 to what he was this past season.

In order for Lopez to improve on what he was in 2009, he could improve his discipline. Conceding this as unlikely, however, he then would have to improve on one or some of those four points. Looking at them again:

(1) Lopez's contact rate is already high, and his rate in 2009 was not significantly different from his rates in 2005 or 2006. I find the suggestion that Lopez could make more contact than he already does to be dubious.

(2) Players don't get faster. As Lopez ages, he's only going to lose footspeed, not gain it.

(3) Possible, but then since he's not blessed with the best speed, this isn't going to help him anyway.

(4) And now we've gotten to the heart of the matter. Those who say Lopez's star is only on the rise believe that he's packing more power potential. Those who say he's near his ceiling don't see it.

So which is it? Just how much more power can we expect to see out of Jose Lopez going forward?

The thing about power spikes is that, generally, they don't come out of nowhere. They're preceded by flashes of power to all fields, and occasional glimpses of considerable strength. Wladimir Balentien, for example, only hit seven homers this year, but his 489-foot dinger off Daniel McCutchen was the longest hit by anyone all season. This is evidence that, while Balentien's far from a complete hitter, he has the potential to drive a lot of pitches out of the park. One also notices that, of Balentien's 15 career homers, six have gone up the middle or the other way. Combine these bits of information with his famously long swing and I don't think anyone would be surprised if a year or three from now he ended up on or near the longball leaderboard.

There are signs. Which makes me wonder, where are Lopez's signs?

Yes, he hit 17 homers in 2008 and 25 homers in 2009. Each added significantly to his previous career high. But home runs, by themselves, don't necessarily tell you that much. How is his actual *power*?

To answer this, I think we realistically only need to consider three things:

Jose Lopez has hit 70 home runs in his Major League career. He has pulled 66 of them to left field. Three have gone up the middle, and one has gone the other way. Every single one of his 42 homers these last two years has gone to left.

Hit Tracker Online provides data going back to 2006, covering 63 of Lopez's 70 home runs. Six of them had a standard distance of more than 400 feet. The longest came in at 415. The fastest, meanwhile, came in at 109.8mph off the bat.

He has a pretty quick, compact swing.

Lopez isn't weak. Weak guys don't hit 25 homers while spending half their time in Safeco Field. But when you go through the data, you can't help but feel like, if Lopez were packing more power potential, he would've demonstrated that ability at least a couple times at some point. Where are the deep flies to right field? Where are the two or three fastballs he just stepped into and slaughtered to left? It's clear that Wlad has a high power ceiling. We know that Franklin Gutierrez has some raw strength. But Lopez? Rob Johnson hit a ball 430. Mike Carp hit a ball 426. Jose Lopez has yet to hit a ball beyond 415, with the majority of his homers just clearing the left field fence.

When you go through Lopez's numbers looking for signs of more power, what you come away with are signs to the contrary - indications that he doesn't have much further to go, suggestions that perhaps even reaching 25 was a stroke of good luck. Of all the players to hit at least 25 home runs in 2009, Lopez had the lowest average distance, finishing just below other anomalies Ben Zobrist and Aaron Hill. Just because he hit 25 doesn't mean this is his new level of true talent. If anything, I'd say that we should project Lopez to hit for a little less power next year, not more. Because he just hasn't flashed the kind of ability more befitting a 25-homer sort of guy.

I don't want to say there's no chance, and I certainly don't intend to convey the impression that I think Jose Lopez is bad. As far as the former is concerned, unlikely doesn't mean impossible - baseball analysis is just probability. And as for the latter, Lopez has been a ~league-average player these last two years, and at 26 years old, there's little reason to believe he's about to get worse. This is, after all, supposed to be his career peak. He's a fine player.

It's just...Jose Lopez has been teasing Mariner fans since he was a teenager, but at this point, I think we have enough evidence to say that he's probably not going to turn into a big-time power threat or run producer. There's always a chance that he develops more pop, and who knows, he may even get better at telling balls from strikes, but the odds say he's better suited for a supportive role, rather than a featured one. And that's something that, as they examine all the different possibilities this offseason, Jack Zduriencik and his assistants are going to have to take into account.

Who Would You Rather Have: Alex Rodriguez or Chase Utley?

raygu — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

Time for the World Series edition of Who Would You Rather Have? CBS Sportsline recently completed a 5x5 mixed league mock draft, and Chase Utley was selected 4th overall before Ryan Braun, Joe Mauer and Alex Rodriguez to name a few. After Utley went deep twice on Wednesday night do you select him before ARod? Or is ARod still a more valuable fantasy player?

Let's take a look at their 2009 stats:

Name	AB	H	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chase Utley	571	161	31	112	93	88	110	23	0.282	0.397	0.508	0.905
Alex Rodriguez	444	127	30	78	100	80	97	14	0.286	0.402	0.532	0.934

ARod had better overall numbers across the board in less ABs, but Utley is one of the few stud fantasy players at 2B, and there is more depth at 3B than at 2B, right? I am not so sure.

More after the jump:

Here are the third baseman who hit more than 20 HRs in 2009:

Name	HR
Mark Reynolds	44
Ryan Zimmerman	33
Evan Longoria	33
Alex Rodriguez	30
Kevin Youkilis	27
Brandon Inge	27
Pablo Sandoval	25
Mark DeRosa	23
Michael Young	22

And here the second baseman who hit more than 20 HRs in 2009:

Name	HR
Aaron Hill	36
Chase Utley	31
Ian Kinsler	31
Dan Uggla	31
Ben Zobrist	27
Robinson Cano	25
Jose Lopez	25
Clint Barmes	23
Brandon Phillips	20

One could make the case that third base is a scarce postion in 2010, especially if you think that Mark DeRosa is tailing off as a fantasy player and don't think Brandon Inge can hit 27 HRs again. Of course the Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez should hit 30+ HRs should he stay healthy in 2010, but can one count on Chipper Jones or Scott Rolen to hit 20+ HRs again?

Second base is not as scarce as it used to be with Aaron Hill having a breakout (career?) year in 2009, and Ben Zobrist coming out of nowhere to hit 27 HRs in 2009. I won't count on Clint Barmes hitting 20+ HRs again, especially with the AVG that comes with it. Could the Braves Martin Prado sneak into the 20+ HR range with regular playing time in 2010?

So, with all that said, who would you rather have?

Poll

Who would you rather have: Chase Utley or Alex Rodriguez?

ARod-he can hit 40+ in that ballpark

64 votes

Utley-he brings power and more speed.

92 votes

156 votes | Poll has closed

83-77, Game Notes

Jeff — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 07:37:14 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Seattle Mariners pitcher Mark Lowe swings a carefully switched sock full of marbles as he prepares to throw a pitch high and inside in the eighth inning of a MLB baseball game against the Texas Rangers, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009, at Safeco Field in Seattle.

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On the plus side, a tied-for-2nd-place-in-the-division banner would've just looked really pathetic.

It's a shame Ian Snell couldn't have swapped his last start and this one, because after the excitement that he generated with his performance against Toronto, tonight was a bit of a letdown. He didn't have good command of anything and admitted as much, and though I was keeping an eye on his front foot and thought it looked okay, it (A) both came and went, and (B) clearly isn't going to be some magic insta-fix. It's just one of several adjustments the coaching staff would like to see him make.

The good news is that the stuff was mostly there. Snell topped out at 95mph and threw a ton of sliders or slurves or whatever you want to call that breaking ball of his, and his nine missed bats gave him his second-best swinging strike rate as a Mariner. But the downside - and this has been Snell's problem all year long - is that it's just so incredibly difficult to succeed when you're only throwing 60% of your pitches for strikes. Good Snell - 2007 Snell - was up at 65%. So far this year he's at 59%, and tonight he just couldn't find the zone for the life of him for the first three innings or so. He managed to settle down after that and get through six (quality start!), but three innings of bad and three innings of good is no way to survive as a starting pitcher. Snell needs to be able to find a consistent rhythm, and that he's been just about incapable to date is the reason why he's a work in progress.

What I've found interesting is how often we've seen Snell with a smile on his face. For a guy who as a Pirate was so utterly miserable, it's been nice to see him come over and enjoy himself again. It's a completely new environment, one that Snell says he likes, so there's reason to hope that he can be repaired. It's just going to have to wait until next season. Which I suspected all along, but secretly and irrationally wanted to see a little sooner.

When it's a cold day and he gets all bundled up in the broadcast booth, Dave Niehaus looks like a cuddly little teddy bear. I know we use this word a lot around here, but a cold, neckless, and red-cheeked Niehaus is completely adorable.

So the team MVP award as voted on by the local chapter of the BBWAA was bestowed upon Ichiro before the game, with Franklin Gutierrez finishing as the runner-up. Personally I think Gutierrez's performance in the clutch (.965 OPS in high-leverage situations) should've put him over the top, but Ichiro's awesome and in no way an unworthy pick, and what's really amazing is that Gutierrez got consideration from a bunch of writers in the first place.

Do we care about these awards? Do we care about any awards? I feel like having really good value-based statistics updated on a daily basis kind of diminishes the significance. Back in the day awards were probably both somewhat surprising and considered a high honor, but now it seems the only thing they're good for is getting fans really mad at each other. I'm sure the players care a little, but as an outsider, man, whatever.

Jose Lopez won the team's Heart And Hustle award, which is one of those things I didn't think I'd ever write three years ago, or three hours ago.

Speaking of Jose Lopez, the fourth inning saw him come up with a man on second and hit a single without advancing the baserunner. Which I'm just going to go ahead and chalk up as his 25th walk.

Also in the fourth, Sims and Blowers were talking about how at one point a while ago the Rangers got really close to firing Ron Washington, but then the team improved and his became a popular name in conversations about the AL's best managers. "Sometimes the moves you don't make turn out to be better," said Blowers. Right on. Sometimes it's the moves you make. Sometimes it's the moves you don't make. Chances are, if something works out for you, it's because of something you did, or something you didn't do.

Apparently Mariner catchers are allowed to hang on to throws home after all.

A few days ago I got a text from Red saying that tonight would be Adrian Beltre Appreciation Night. Beltre did him proud by going 2-4 with a double, a steal, a run, and an RBI. It's been a rough year for both Adrian and Red, but these last two nights have been special, and I'm wondering if Beltre's planning one final surprise for his biggest fan before the end of the year. Or the other way around. Either one, really.

That steal, by the way, was so totally Adrian Beltre in a nutshell. Standing on second with two out, attempting a steal would've been stupid and pointlessly risky, but Beltre tried it anyway, looking dead to rights but then by some miraculous feat of reflexes and quick thinking pulling his hand back at just the right moment and avoiding the tag. It was one of the greatest slides I've ever seen, but it was also a slide on a play that shouldn't have happened in the first place. Sunday may turn out to be Beltre's final game in a Mariner uniform, but he will long be remembered for succeeding despite looking like a retard. I'm gonna miss you, you crazy son of a bitch.

81-76, Game Notes

Jeff — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 07:36:12 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

This is like taking a picture of the bushes next to Kim Phuc.

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When the meaningful wins are gone, you're left having to celebrate the symbolic ones, but as symbolic ones go, this one was pretty good. We'll have all offseason to reflect on what winning at least 81 games means for the organization. For now, let's just revel in the moment. .500+ was a long time coming. Back in 2007, Rolling Stone's #1 song went to Jay-Z. Spiderman 3 raked in more than three hundred million dollars. Alex Rodriguez led the league in home runs. No other fan base in the world has had to suffer as much as we did while we waited for the M's to return to respectability, and so this - this is bliss. We've earned this. Our long, seemingly endless regional nightmare is over.

And so Felix Hernandez earns his 18th win and slightly lowers his ERA on a night that seldom saw him at his best. That he nearly made it through another eight innings is a testament to both how poorly the A's have been known to hit and how good Felix can still be even when he's not on his game.

The raw numbers do a fine job of conveying just how much Felix struggled with his location. When a guy throw 58% strikes, walks four guys, beans two more, and adds a pair of wild pitches for good measure, no one's going to accuse him of being unusually sharp unless he's Daniel Cabrera. I dunno, maybe it was the weather. It was a cool, indoor game at the Safe, with Gameday marking the temperature at 52 degrees. Sometimes it can be hard to get a good feel for the seams when your fingers are cold, and I wouldn't be surprised to hear that that played a part in Felix's struggles. But then, it's also possible that it didn't. Who knows? Maybe Felix's rough go of it was independent of the atmosphere. What matters is that he wasn't particularly sharp, and were it not for a handful of clutch pitches and some good defense, Oakland would've scored more than a deuce.

What's funny is that, where you'd think a start like this would hurt Felix's chances at the Cy Young, the voters will probably eat it up. Guy comes in without his best stuff and toughs it out for 7.2 two-run innings? That's a warrior. It's easy to coast when you're always untouchable like Zack Greinke. Felix had to earn his innings. Or something. I can't tell if this is a joke or serious. I guess that's not a real ringing endorsement of the award.

Those 120 pitches Felix threw, by the way, were a career high. Safe to say we're out of the kid gloves window, as Felix has racked up 232 innings and 26 consecutive starts with 100+ pitches thrown. Wakamatsu has treated him like a workhorse, and he's responded like one. I don't necessarily love that he was out there for 120, especially on a night where he didn't know where the ball was going, but his velocity was fine, and we don't have any real compelling reason to believe that we put his body in grave danger. Every pitcher's unique. Felix seems to be pretty durable. So at this point I support pretty much any endeavor intended to make him happy. Would've been nice to see Felix walk off after a third out, but I guess we'll just have to give him a real ovation on Sunday.

The small crowd tonight should help keep Felix's price tag down come the eventual extension negotiations.

Nero: Felix deserves to be paid at a premium. He's the sort of player fans will pay to come see.
Zduriencik: Oh yeah?

With two on and two down in the top of the seventh, Rajai Davis hit a ball on the ground to the right of second base that Jose Lopez tracked down and threw to first after a little spin. It wasn't a spectacular play, and it won't make any highlight reels, but it was a rangey play, and an effective reminder that, while Lopez will probably always be prone to the occasional boneheaded mistake, he's not a tree. He can move to each side, and he can move pretty well. For now, anyway.

Hopefully this wasn't Ken Griffey Jr.'s final home run in Seattle (by which I mean I'd like to see one in the next five days, and not in 2010), but if it was, at least it was a classic Griffey dinger. Low-inside fastball that he turned on with the usual swing and watched fly to its usual place while completing his usual follow-through. The best part was that the homer was immediately preceded by a meeting on the mound with the catcher and coach and everything. Nothing quite like giving someone advice and then watching him go and achieve the worst possible scenario.

Anyway, Griffey hasn't hit a whole lot this year, but he hasn't been a disaster, and he's shown enough flashes of his old self to remind so many people of why they ever fell in love. Honestly, it might be the best case for him that the team is successful but not close to the race, because by being so far out of it, no one feels inclined to blame his mediocre productivity for holding us back. Everyone's who's wanted has just been able to get swept up in the whole thing, and given the impact he's had on the team and the fan base, I don't know that the organization could be any happier about having brought him back. It didn't go perfectly, but nothing's ever perfect.

Bill Hall let another ball drop in front of him today after taking a casual stroll in pursuit. This one, at least, landed in foul territory. Said Dave Sims: "Wow. Full throttle, it wasn't." It can't be laziness. If it were laziness, Wak would've put him on the bench by now. So Hall has to have a pretty good excuse for why he hasn't been running, and that pretty good excuse is his bum quad. Hall can't run at anything close to full speed because he has a bum quad. Sooo...he's still playing. I don't understand.

A couple batters later, Adrian Beltre retreated behind third base for a pop up and made a wave-off motion with his hand before making the catch. Then he smiled.

Says a frequent MLB.tv commercial for a week-long umpire camp: "Become the best umpire you can be." This can be interpreted in three ways:

(1) Nothing about being a successful umpire is so hard that you can't learn it in a week
(2) Camp is the only place where you can learn to be an umpire, and once you leave camp, you'll never improve again, ever
(3) The statement has nothing to do with the camp, and is instead a message of inspiration. "Hey, viewer. Become the best umpire you can be. We believe in you."

I don't know which is correct, but #1 seems most appropriate.

79-72, Game Notes

Jeff — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 07:13:06 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Seattle Mariners' Ichiro Suzuki, right, of Japan, reaches out to high-five teammate Mike Carp while Tampa Bay Rays' Dioner Navarro, center, looks on with particular interest. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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So I'll be writing the Mariners chapter again in the upcoming Hardball Times Season Preview. And as much as they probably frown on this sort of thing, should they ask for a brief review of 2009, I can already tell you how it's going to end: though the M's were well out of the race by the middle of August, they found a way to make those meaningless games down the stretch borderline watchable.

I don't know how better to summarize a team that's been both disappointing and so totally not disappointing at all.

Not really a banner night for Ryan Rowland-Smith, but for one thing, he's more than earned the right to have a start like this, and for another, he didn't see a lefty bat all game. Ordinarily a lefty starter doesn't see that many lefty bats to begin with, and lefties had accounted for just 26% of plate appearances against RRS on the season coming in, but 26% multiplied by the 25 batters RRS faced today comes out to six or seven, and that can make a pretty big difference.

I dunno, just a thought. Though an issue, righties weren't Ryan's only problem tonight, however, as he admitted that he didn't have his best stuff against a pretty good offense. He was better about getting his curveball over, an issue he recently lamented, but his fastball was hit or miss and he couldn't depend on his changeup. Only 13 of the 27 he threw went for strikes, including just two of his final 11, and without his best change, RRS had a tough time avoiding trouble. He allowed three runs through 5+ innings, and it very easily could've been a whole lot worse.

That said, considering RRS walked all of four batters over his previous five starts, I think it's safe to say this is more of a blip than a red flag. Nobody wants to see a guy have a game like this (except Trey Hillman on Monday), but it's not a problem unless it becomes a habit, and I'm inclined to pay more attention to RRS' entire 2009 body of work rather than a single off night. He'll be fine.

This was the first Mariners game I've been able to watch on MLB.tv in a week, and the first thing I saw when I booted it up was that damn Geico commercial with 3 Doors Down. It's like I never left. It's tempting to suggest that it's all just clever satire - the Geico cavemen are miserable beings, and 3 Doors Down is a miserable band - but I fear that would be giving the advertising department too much credit, and that rather than using their outlet to mock one of the more alarming success stories of the last decade of musicianship, they honestly believe that the combination of formulaic corporate lite rock with oversensitive business troglodytes is going to help them sell their own insurance, provided the potential customer is exposed to the commercial 14 times a game.

A lot of people like to make fun of YouTube commenters. I think all you need to know about them is that, of the last 62 comments left on the ad's page that express an opinion, 61 were positive.

In the early innings today, the entire Mariner bullpen lined up to shake the hand of a ball guy who gave a foul ball to a little girl by the wall. I think it's to the point where our bullpen has literally taken on a life of its own. As one unit, one peculiar unit that envelops all who tread near. I can imagine them all living together in a household similar to the ESPN studios during Y2K, and I can also imagine that it's all a very weird experience for people like Brandon Morrow and Garrett Olson who've worked both as starters and in relief.

Morrow: Hey guys.
Hannahan: Hey Brandon, welcome back.
Johnson: So Brandon, hey, I've been meaning to ask you.
Morrow: Yeah?
Johnson: What's it like?
Morrow:
Johnson: You know
Johnson: Out...there.
Morrow:
Morrow: Y'know
Morrow:
Morrow: I don't really...know.
Wakamatsu: Luke!
French: What's going on, skip?
Wakamatsu: Hey, Luke. Brandon's starting. You're going to the bullpen.
French: oh
French: oh god
Langerhans: You're shaking.
French: oh my god

In the bottom of the fifth, Adrian Beltre made a fine shorthop grab and throw to retire Gabe Kapler, and Dave Sims and Mike Blowers took the opportunity to point out just how spoiled we are by his play at third base. How spoiled are we? So spoiled that I doubt many of those who watched could recall the play he'd just made. Adrian Beltre has a .668 OPS and has been an above-average player.

Jose Lopez's tiebreaking homer in the 8th was his 25th of the season, and though little milestones like that don't really mean that much to us as fans, they mean a lot to the players, as evidenced by Lopez requesting the ball back from the fan who got it. However, the fan - pictured below - refused to cooperate.

Drayer says the fan turned down an offer of both an autographed bat and an autographed ball in exchange for the homer. Now, I'm trying really hard these days to be less judgmental. To judge people less often by their behavior or appearance observed in a small sample. With that in mind, it's possible that the man pictured is a genuinely good guy who's wanted to catch a foul or a homer his entire life, and that he plans to put this ball on his mantle and cherish it, or that he intends to take it home to present to his son or daughter as a surprise. Keeping the ball under the circumstances is a little selfish, but then we're all selfish, and we shouldn't pass judgment without knowing the whole story. It's entirely possible that the ball could bring more happiness to the fan or to someone he knows than it would to Jose Lopez.

On the other hand, Axe Factory featured enough reliable indicators of probable blockheadedness that I'd support the extreme measures suggested by Sims and Blowers on the broadcast. They used to settle these conflicts a little differently, don't you know.

Given that Griffey and Sweeney are the life of the dugout, I would wager that #3 hitter Jose Lopez enjoys his homers the least.

Miguel Batista has retired 11 consecutive batters.

Ichiro went 1-4 while Joe Mauer went 1-3. Though Ichiro's hit was twice as good as Mauer's, batting champ contenders don't get credit for style points, which means the chances now are even slimmer than they were this afternoon. Should Ichiro determine that he won't catch up to Mauer, an interesting backup plan would be trying to make all of his hits home runs.