SB Nation - Raul Ibanez

Three Up, Three Down: Reasons The Phillies Will Win (or Lose) Tonight

David S. Cohen — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:03:43 -0000

The Phillies faced their first elimination game in two years on Monday night and prevailed. Can they do it again tonight? Here are three reasons they will, and three reasons they won't:

The Good

1) Road Warriors. The Phillies were tied with the Angels for the best road team in baseball this year. The Phillies went 48-33, with a +70 run differential away from CBP this year. The Phillies have played five games at Yankee Stadium so far this year, and have outscored the Yankees 22-15. Their record at Yankee Stadium is 3-2 in those five games, but the two losses were incredibly close, one coming on a Brad Lidge blown save and another despite Pedro Martinez's gem last week.

2) Rested and ready. Despite some criticism, Charlie Manuel's decision to keep his pitchers on normal rest could pay off huge. Pedro Martinez, on 5 days rest, is going up against Andy Pettitte, on 3 days rest. Martinez has always been at his best when he's on regular 4 or 5 day rest. When he gets too much rest, 6 days or more, his game suffers. Batters hit him better (a .070 jump in OPS on his career, about a .200 jump this year) and he gives up more runs (his ERA jumps about 1.00 on his career, about 3.00 this year). Martinez is in his sweet spot going on 5 days rest. On the other hand, Pettitte will be challenged on 3 days rest. For his career, Pettitte is only slightly worse on 3 days rest compared to regular rest. But, here's the rub -- he hasn't pitched on 3 days rest since 2006, when he was 34. The body works differently at 37.

3) Righty power. The Phillies right-handed hitters can demolish Pettitte. Even though Pettitte had a small reverse platoon split this year (.730 OPS for lefties, .717 for righties) and just a very small platoon split for his career (.728 OPS for righties, .711 for lefties), the Phillies righties have demolished Pettitte in the past. It's all on the small to miniscule sample size end of the spectrum, but the results have been great. Including the post-season, Jayson Werth has a .188/.188/750 line with 3 home runs in 16 plate appearances, Pedro Feliz has a .300/.462/.400 line in 13 plate appearances, Ben Francisco has a .400/.500/.400 line in 6 plate appearances, and Carlos Ruiz has a .500/.667/1.250 line in 6 plate appearances. The Phillies' switch hitters have not done well but have held their own against Pettitte, with Shane Victorino posting a .375/.333/.375 line in 9 plate appearances and Jimmy Rollins a .250/.286/.400 line in 21 plate appearances.

The Bad

1) Hometown heroes. The Yankees had the best home record in baseball, at 57-24. Since July 1, the Yankees are even better, with a 35-10 record at home. They'll be returning to their home crowd with a chance to win their first World Series at home since 1999. For most franchises, that's not that long of a time between opportunities. For Yankees fans, that's three lifetimes.

2) Lefty troubles. It's been well documented how poorly the Phillies' lefties not named Chase Utley have performed this Series. It gets worse when you look at how they've performed historically against Pettitte. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have a combined 2 singles, 8 strikeouts, and 1 walk against him in 23 career plate appearances. Raul Ibanez has been better, but not much. Thanks to playing most of his career in the AL, he has 25 plate appearances against Pettitte, in which he's put up a .250/.280/.417 line with 1 home run, 7 strikeouts, and no walks.

3) DH. Shane Victorino will be a game time decision tonight. If he's not able to make it because of his sore finger, the Phils will be forced to play Francisco in center, keep Ibanez in left, and DH either Eric Bruntlett or Matt Stairs. Bruntlett has had a truly awful year this year, and Stairs has been a non-existent hitter since July 1 (.082/.274/.245 line for the last three months of the season). They are a combined 0 for 10 lifetime against Pettitte. With the DH adding Hideki Matsui to the Yankees' lineup, if the Phillies counter with Bruntlett or Stairs, they're in big trouble.

The Outcome

With six hours to go until game time, these are the important factors that could influence this game. All in all, I think Pettitte's short rest combined with the righty dominance the Phillies have shown over him will win the day, and we'll see a Game 7 battle tomorrow night. Here's hoping....

Burnett Roulette: Yankees 3, Phillies 1

WholeCamels — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 03:53:26 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

12 days ago: New York Yankees' A.J. Burnett reacts after striking out Philadelphia Phillies' Ryan Howard with two men on base during the third inning of Game 2 of the Major League Baseball World Series Thursday, Oct. 29, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

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Two games so far, decided by two dominant pitching performances.

A.J. Burnett, the Yankees' erratic free agent acquisition, pitched the game of his life tonight, going seven strong innings, allowing just four hits, striking out nine and walking only two. He allowed just one run, on a smash RBI single off the glove of Alex Rodriguez, scoring Raul Ibanez from second base in the top of the second inning. The Phillies did a decent job making Burnett throw pitches in the early going, but as the game progressed, he became virtually unhittable. Burnett benefited from a wide plate, and the Phillies hitters failed to adjust -- in the later innings, Burnett dropped curveball after curveball on the outside corner, but the Phillies left-handed hitters failed to change their approach.

We got about all we could have hoped for from Pedro Martinez. The veteran righty went six-plus innings, striking out eight and allowing three runs, two on solo home runs from Mark Teixeira and Hideki Matsui, and a third run on a single by Jorge Posada off Chan Ho Park, scoring the inherited baserunner Brett Gardner. Good, but not quite good enough.

The game was not without controversy, with a pair of double-plays-that-weren't in consecutive half innings; in the bottom of the seventh, with runners on first and second, Johnny Damon lined a ball to Ryan Howard, who snagged the short-hop and threw to second. The ball was called a catch, and the throw to second resulted in a force of Melky Cabrera. In the top of the eighth, with runners on first and second, Chase Utley hit a ground ball to second base and, after forcing Shane Victorino at second, the relay throw failed to get Utley on time at first base. He was called out anyway. Even Steven?

Mariano Rivera pitched the 8th and 9th innings and looked mortal, surrendering a walk to Jimmy Rollins and a single to Victorino in the previously discussed 8th inning, and a two out double to Raul Ibanez in the 9th. But... too little, too late.

There was really no beating A.J. Burnett tonight. "Good A.J." showed up. "Good A.J." is one of the best pitchers in baseball, even if he looks like some kind of Boo Radley / extra from the classic The Hills Have Eyes hybrid ghoul.

They still split in New York. They've got Cole Hamels, who's pitched well at home this season, on Saturday night.

Agh, disappointment.

Yanks take Game 2, take Pedro deep in 3-1 victory

CrazyYankeeChick — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 03:33:57 -0000

Ahh, much better.

The Yankees beat the Phillies in a much-needed, if technically not "must-win" Game 2, with A.J. Burnett outdueling old friend Pedro Martinez.

The Phillies took an early 1-0 lead in the 2nd with an RBI single from Matt Stairs, but the Yanks answered in the 4th with a solo shot from Mark Teixeira. Two innings later, Hideki Matsui went yard to give the Yanks a 2-1 lead, and then they collectively abandoned the longball game in favor of the small ball one.

If we had lost that game, I would have undoubtedly been arrested, and they would have needed dental records to identify the first base ump's mangled body.

Something tells me this game is just a microcosm of how the rest of the series is going to go. Nip and tuck. Working the pitchers. No easy outs, no easy runs. I don't know if my heart can take it.

Admittedly, no one can say we teed off on the long-winded stepchild of the Yankees. He kept our bats frozen through 3 innings, save a single from Hideki. And I wouldn't dare publicly subscribe to this at the time, but the thought did cross my mind that if Pedro holds us scoreless and to one hit, I may have to walk into a pit of wild boars to take me out of my misery.

Fortunately, Tex saved me from this fate when he led off the bottom of the 4th with shot to right center. 'Bout time. I was like 8 minutes away from exploding into a "the Phillies have weighted the ball!" outburst. (Seriously, though. It felt like the whole bar had been possessed by Sterling, every shot looked like it was going to carry, inducing us all to jump to our feet in excitement only to see it caught no where near the warning track.)

With the score tied 1-1, everyone was breathing slightly easier. Slightly. A.J. continued to deal, and unlike his usual Good A.J. persona, he wasn't even throwing the occasional wildness. Over 7 unbelievably solid innings, he used 108 pitches to let up just 4 hits, walk 2, and strike out 9. NINE. Thank you a thousand times over, A.J.

The offense did little to help him out, though it never seemed as through Pedro was baffling them, per se. If anything, they might have been a little overeager to knock him around and hence were getting whiffed on giant cuts.

In the bottom of the 7th, the Yanks added another run to their lead, and it really should have been a couple more runs, but a horrendous call ended the inning. With runners on 1st and 2nd, Jorge Posada singled to score Brett Gardner (although his ribbie was regrettably not off Pedro, but I'll take it.)

Jeter made the first out of the inning when he did what every hot batter does with 2 strikes, runners on, in a playoff game where you only lead by 2: bunted. Naturally. Johnny Damon came up and hit a line drive to first which Ryan Howard sells as a catch despite its definite hop, umps buy it, Posada out at 2nd, Damon out with the catch.

Technically, it should have been a 4-1 game, with runners on 1st and 2nd and still 1 out, since Howard never even stepped on first. Eh, it's moot.

Mariano Rivera comes in for 6 outs and throws wayyy too many pitches en route to his 38th postseason save (39). Things started to get a little too close for comfort when he put on Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins, with Chase Utley to deal with on only 1 out. Superman induces a double play, inning over.

The 9th went on without much of a hitch beyond Raul Ibanez's double. Mo struck out Matt Stairs to end the game. (Btw, I never noticed how much of a fat middle-aged Guiness-drinking, Mets-rooting blob Stairs looks like--that's the type of guy who bats cleanup in his bar softball league, not for a pro one.)

The series is tied at 1 game apiece, with a "travel" day tomorrow, then 3 games in Philly commence on Halloween. Great win tonight, Yanks. And special nod of gratitude for Jose Molina (yup, first time that sentiment has ever been uttered ever), for picking off Jason Werth in the 3rd. Maybe that was the weird kick in the pants the boys needed to start it up.

It's still our series. Here's to taking Philly by the jugular this weekend.

And what better time for bloodshed then October 31?

-CYC

World Series Batting Order Optimizer: Philadelpha Phillies

devil_fingers — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 17:44:19 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley, right, arrives at Penn Station with his wife, Jen. He's leading off up the escalator, so I don't see why he can't lead off at a baseball game as part of the World series. Note the relatively modest use of product in his hair. Maybe playing the Yankees in New York brings it out of him.

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Game One of the 2009 World Series ended with the Phillies (mainly Cliff Le) dominating the Yankees in a complete game. The batting order for the Yankees didn't quite match what I recommended for them yesterday, but we hardly expected that, did we? The Phillies have some very good hitters, although not quite as good overall as the Yankees. There is a definiitely dividing line between the really good hitters (Utley, Howard, Werth) and the others. (But it's worth keeping in mind, well-known-on-line-"sabermetric"-analyst-who-shall-go-nameless, that most of the less skilled Philadelphia hitters justify their playing because of their excellent defense. Also, stop using VORP.) The heavily-left-leaning nature of the core of the Phillies offense also poses a challenge. But hey, there's the easy way, and then there's the cowboy way... And it's nice not to have a lousy lineup to optimize. So here we go, it's late and I want to get this done before the World Series ends.

I'll leave out the usual incredibly long methodological preface that is on the other posts (again, see yesterday's post if you want to read it all). And definitely make sure you look it over before you complain about something. Keep in mind that these projections aren't mine, they're the 2010 Bill James projections. Yes, they're a bit goofy (particularly for the Phillies), but they're the only completely set I have at the moment. They get the job done well enough. Before we get started adjusting for platoons and everything, here are the unadjusted Phillies projections. I've calculated the wOBA myself, and the baserunning (EqHAR from BP) and double-play rate projections are also crude homemade projections.

Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.332	.260	.344	.408	.148	0.2	-0.4	-1.8
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.399	.278	.372	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Chase Utley	2B	L	.380	.290	.384	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.304	.253	.296	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6
Raul Ibanez	DH	L	.349	.270	.340	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Jason Werth	RF	R	.371	.269	.369	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Ben Francisco	LF	R	.337	.269	.339	.438	.169	1.1	0.3	-0.8

And away we go...

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. RHP w/DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Chase Utley	2B	L	.390	.290	.393	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Raul Ibanez	DH	L	.358	.270	.348	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Jason Werth	RF	R	.365	.269	.362	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.410	.278	.381	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Ben Francisco	LF	R	.332	.269	.333	.438	.169	1.1	0.3	-0.8
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.327	.260	.338	.408	.148	0.2	-0.4	-1.8
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.299	.253	.291	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: I'm sure you've noticed a crazy thing in there. But I stand by hitting Francisco in front of Ruiz. Of, what, it's not that? Utley hitting first seems crazy? Well, this whole thing is crazy. You want the best guys hitting #1, #2, and #4. However, as with other teams, all the Phillies best hitters vs. RHP are lefties, and you want to avoid stacking them so that the opposition can't leveraeg a lefty-reliever against them, as the Yankees did with Damaso Marte vs. Utley and Howard last night (obviously, it didn't decide the game). Also note that Chase Utley is good at everything. Maybe it will take a 2 HR performance against the Yankees in the World Serie for people to notice what a badass this guy has been and continues to be. He plays second base. He's one of the best (and possibly the best) defenders at that position in the majors, even after his offseason hip surgery. He's a great hitter. He's got a total greaseball hairdo. You knew all that. Did you also know that he stole 23 bases in the 2009 regular season without getting caught? Oh, he's also one of the best baserunners in the league overall, #2 in EqBRR between powerless speedsters like Michael Bourn and Rajai Davis this past season. Oh, and of all the players I ran the numbers on this past season, he is the best at avoiding the double play. Not bad for a guy who, to listen to some commentators, is a pretty good "sidekick" for Ryan Howard. Dude is so underrated he's raised some interesting questions. I'd say he's about as underrated as Carlos Beltran, except that Beltran gets more play (being in New York and one of Joe Posnanski's favorites doesn't hurt) and Utley has been the better player the last 4-5 season. Someone asked me last night on Twitter what it would take for Utley to finally win the NL MVP. I guess we'll see when Albert Pujols signs with the Royals in a couple of seasons... Anyway, where was I? Oh yeah. If I didn't worry so much about handedness, I'd probably hit Werth #1, then Utley-Ibanez-Howard or something. But I do worry about it. Hitting Chutley first minimizes his GDP skills and power, but since we ended up putting Victorino second because of handedness issues and Ibanez isn't as powerful as Werth and Howard, it does take advantage of Utley's skill on the bases. Werth has enough power to do well at cleanup and enough OBP to tackle the #4 spots frequent leadoff opportunities. Since neither he nor Ibanez are as good on the bases as Utley and VIctorino, having Howard behind them makes sense. Again, Howard #5 seems low, but #5 should be better than #3, and I needed to separate the lefties. Rollins offense has obviously declined, but he's not horrible, and #6 is a good spot for a guy who can steal bases in front of the weak hitters behind him who have trouble moving him over themselves.

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. RHP, no DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Chase Utley	2B	L	.390	.290	.393	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Raul Ibanez	LF	L	.358	.270	.348	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Jason Werth	RF	R	.365	.269	.362	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.410	.278	.381	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.327	.260	.338	.408	.148	0.2	-0.4	-1.8
Pitcher
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.299	.253	.291	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: Not much to add here. Remember that I could go either way on the pitcher thing... even a good-hitting pitcher is still usually worse than Pedro Feliz vs. RHP, although it's closer than you'd like. Basically I just took out Fransisco and put in the pitcher and moved Ruiz (not a bad hitter for a catcher) up. But let's talk about Rollins: He's not as good as he was (or he wasn't as good as we thought, depending on where you estimate his true talent in 2005-8 relative to now), but certain analysts have said that Rollins isn't the star he's made out to be. I don't know how you measure "starness," and I'll admit that I find JRoll's cockiness enjoyable. Still, just not being as good as Derek Jeter doesn't mean a player isn't good (and not that Jeter's the best SS in baseball, he's just an interesting comparison given the WS matchup). Moreover, how far is Rollins from Jeter, really? Sure, this season Jeter's about 5 wins better. But check it: FanGraphs has Jeter at about 26 WAR 2005-2009. Rollins is at a bit over 23 in the same period. That's pretty close to equal. Yes, it's true to say that Rollins is miscast as a leadoff hitter, but that doesn't mean he isn't (or hasn't been) an outstanding player, or even a star. It's weird how short- (and/or "narrow-") sighted people can be. Oh,. and one more thing on Utley power being "wasted" at leadoff: despite hitting #3, both his home runs last night were solo shots. Against a demonstration that batting order doesn't give as much control as we'd think, and why sometimes it's just better to give a good hitter (potentially) extra opportunities by moving him up than hoping he'll come up with runners on. And again OBP issues aside, putting guys like Rollins and Victorino in front of power hitters like Utley, Howard, and Werth neutralizes their speed, since they don't need to steal to get into position for these guys very often, and the power dimension of the good hitters also means that their advancement skills aren't leveraged properly, either -- Ryan Howard doesn't hit many singles that need a guy to book it from first to third.

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. LHP w/DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Jason Werth	RF	R	.389	.269	.389	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Chase Utley	2B	L	.360	.290	.366	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Ben Francisco	LF	R	.353	.269	.357	.438	.169	1.1	0.3	-0.8
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.378	.278	.354	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.348	.260	.362	.408	.148	0.3	0.7	-1.8
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Raul Ibanez	DH	L	.331	.270	.324	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.319	.253	.312	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: This seems a bit backward to me, too. Howard hitting cleanup vs. LHP but not RHP? Again, it's a function of a) getting the best hitters on top and alternating R/L guys, and b) a true estimate of platoon splits, as covered recently regarding Howard by MGL and more generally in my Book-inspired Platoon Splits Project (which I need to come back to after the season when I have the time to see how I did). Werth is projected to be the best hitter vs. LHP, so hitting him cleanup might have made sense, but then that mean putting Howard #2 or #1 in front of a relatively low-power RHH like Ben Francisco or Carlos Ruiz, and if there's one thing Howard doesn't do well, it's run the bases. I went back and forth on Utley vs. Werth in the #1 and #2 spots, but finally settled on Werth leading off because this puts Utley (the superior basestealer and baserunner) closer to the less powerful hitters like Francisco and Ruiz (and without estimating them specifically, Utley's platoon splits at a glance are pretty small). When all else fails, give the best hitters the most PAs. Ibanez projects as terrible vs. LHP according to these methods, but having Victorino and Rollins #6 and #7 (they could go in either order, really) gives good basestealers in front of him and the bad-even-with-the-platoon advantage Feliz, which, as I've noted many times, is a better use of their stealing abililty than putting them in front of Utley and Howard.

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. LHP, no DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Jason Werth	RF	R	.389	.269	.389	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Chase Utley	2B	L	.360	.290	.366	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.378	.278	.354	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.348	.260	.362	.408	.148	0.3	0.7	-1.8
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Raul Ibanez	LF	L	.331	.270	.324	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Pitcher
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.319	.253	.312	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: Yes, I do think (at least according to the James projections), that without the DH the Phillies shold be platooning Francisco and Ibanez, and that's without even taking defense and baserunning into account. But we aren't here to dispute who should be in the lineup, just how it should be ordered.This is prety much the same, except that without Francisco, I ended having to put Victorino in the #3 spot. I picked him over Ruize because a) the #5 hitter should be better than #3, and b) Ruiz has a problem with GDPs, and Victorino is good at avoiding them. Morever, Werth and (especially) Utley's skill on the bases can help Victorino out despite his lack of power, and Howard's skills are diminished vs. LHP, so Victorino's basestealing isn't as wasted. Rollins could arguably switch with Ruiz here, if you wanted to leverage his basestealing a bit more, but I like it the way it is.

So there it is. I know this I've made some controversial suggestions as far as batting order goes. Maybe I'm too dogmatic about splitting up lefties, but that's what I've gone with. It's fun to see the different ways of thinking about it, at least I hope it is for you guys. These things are a lot of work, but a lot of fun, so I hope people get a bit of entertainment out of it and aren't just irritated.

I can't wait to see Manuel lead off Utley tonight!

Yanks get shut down 6-1. Cliff Lee deals, Yankees cannot.

CrazyYankeeChick — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 03:44:52 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

Game breaks open right about....here.

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I can't do this.

I blame my sister for this one, actually, who decided a good time to pick a fight would be the second inning of the f'n World Series. THIS IS EXACTLY WHY I DON'T DATE ANYONE DURING BASEBALL.

Ugh.

How much more do you need to know here? The Yankees got shut down by Cliff Lee. CC Sabathia let up 2 solo homeruns to Chase Utley and Chase Utley. David Robertson, once the Houdini of bases-loaded-jams, gave up a base hit in the 8th to Raul Ibanez to make it 4-0.

Then Ryan Howard doubled in the 9th for 2 more runs. A couple of meaningless baserunners in the the bottom of the inning allowed Derek Jeter to score, but it was too much for even the Yanks to overcome.

We lost out first game at home.

A.J. Burnett better rip the Phillies a new you-know-what tomorrow.

Til then...

Finally! Our World Series wait is nearly over

Ed Valentine — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 12:06:36 -0000

Ah, life is as it should be in Yankee Universe. The World Series begins tonight, and it returns home to the Bronx as our New York Yankees take on the Philadelphia Phillies.

I know you won't be able to concentrate at work today, anyway. You will be fussin' and frettin' and worrying about making sure you will be home for the first pitch. So, relax and tour the Inter-Google with us as we look for interesting stuff to read while we pass the time while waiting for CC Sabathia to take to the mound.

You could have blown me off my seat with a feather when I read this story from 'Bugs & Cranks' Tuesday praising Derek Jeter. In case you don't know, I used to write about the Yankees for 'B&C,' and one of the reasons I left is the absolue, venomous, unbridled hatred of the Yankees displayed on a daily basis by most of the writers there. So, the appreciation for the Yankee Captain -- from that site -- stunned me.
Thomas Boswell says it's the Yankees with something to prove

Boswell is the long-time baseball columnist for The Washington Post, and he wrote today about the role reversal between the two cities.

When the World Series starts Wednesday, the proud, confident defending world champion Philadelphia Phillies will face the New York Yankees, baseball's biggest chokers for the last eight years. What happened? Did these two cities, after a century, decide to swap identities? Live long enough, you really will see everything.

Go to Philadelphia this month and you'll see stories about how the Phillies have reversed the town's ancient inferiority complex about its pro sports teams. You are no longer a sucker if you dare to believe in a Philly team's chance for a positively ridiculous comeback win. It's now the Phillies' trademark, especially in the playoffs. Ask the Rockies and Dodgers. Both are still numb.

Go to New York this month and you are met by the opposite mood. Before Game 6 of the ALCS against the Angels, a Page 1 tabloid headline on the Yankees blared, "We Ain't Chokin'."

The Yankees are happy that George Steinbrenner will be around Yankee Stadium for the Series.
Of course we want some pie during the Series. The New York Times discusses the history behind the newest Yankee tradition.
Instant replay? One writer says Major League Baseball should institute full replay right now -- before the first pitch is thrown tonight.
Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel was CC Sabathia's first big-league manager. Chad Jennings has a great piece with Manuel telling his Sabathia story.
FOX's Ken Rosenthal says the Yankee pitching will be the deciding factor.

The best starter in this series is Yankees left-hander Sabathia. The best closer is Yankees righty Mariano Rivera. True, the Yankees' righty setup men, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, struggled in the ALCS, and lefties Phil Coke and Damaso Marte seem an inadequate counter to the Phillies' big left-handed sluggers in Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez. But Manuel is making up the Phillies' bullpen as he goes along — righty Joe Blanton and lefty J.A. Happ again are expected to start the series as relievers, and righty Brett Myers could re-emerge as the Phillies' 12th pitcher.

Rivera vs. Brad Lidge? To understand the different levels of confidence the two closers evoke in their respective managers, just consider the way they are being used. Rivera has pitched eight times in nine postseason games, allowing one run in 10 2/3 innings. Lidge has yet to allow a run, but he has appeared in only five of nine games and worked only four innings.

Oh, I can concoct various "Phillies win" scenarios — A.J. Burnett cracking, Hughes and Chamberlain staggering, Lee getting hot and Utley, Howard and Co. getting on a roll. Who knows what might happen?

No one expected the Dodgers to beat the Cardinals or the Angels to wilt three times at Yankee Stadium. Still, much as I love the Phillies' toughness, I can't see how they will out-pitch the Yankees.
Jon Heyman analyzes the key matchups, then whimps out and doesn't make a prediction.

That should be enough to keep you busy for a while. Let's just hope it doesn't rain tonight.

A Tale of Two Lefties: Clifton Phifer Lee v. Carsten Charles Sabathia

David S. Cohen — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 20:41:16 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

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Tomorrow night, Cliff Lee will face CC Sabathia in Game 1 of the 2009 World Series. It's possible that the two lefties will face each other two more times over the course of the possible seven game series, as each manager has indicated that his ace lefty could pitch Games 1, 4, and 7 (if necessary).

The two aces share a lot in common besides both being lefties. Both were initially drafted in the 1998 amateur draft, Sabathia by the Indians and Lee by the Orioles. Sabathia was a first round pick who quickly signed. Lee, a twentieth round pick, did not sign, re-entering the draft in 2000 when he was drafted by the Expos. In 2002, before he had reached the majors, he was traded to the Indians as part of a package in the Bartolo Colon deadline deal.

Until 2008, both Lee and Sabathia spent their major league careers as Indians, with Sabathia being the better pitcher, although not by much. From 2001 through mid-2008, Sabathia was 106-71 with a 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 116 ERA+ over 1528 innings. From 2002 through mid-2009, Lee was 83-48 for the Indians with a 4.01 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 110 ERA+ over 1117 innings.

Even though Sabathia had the better career as an Indian, Lee's peak was better. The two won back-to-back Cy Young Awards as Indians, but Lee had the better Cy Young season. In 2007, Sabathia went 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA over 241 innings. His ERA+ was 143 and his WARP3 was 7.2. In Lee's 2008 Cy Young season, he went 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA over 223.1 innings. His ERA+ was 175 with a WARP3 of 8.6.

Both Sabathia and Lee were traded in blockbuster mid-season trades that netted the Indians a good portion of a future lineup and rotation. The Indians got Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson, and Zach Jackson from the Brewers for Sabathia in July 2008. A year later, they got Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, Lou Marson, and Jason Donald from the Phillies for Lee. Both players were then key cogs in getting their new team to the post-season, with Sabathia coming in fifth place in the NL Cy Young voting for his half-year of work for the Brewers and Cliff Lee anchoring an until-then shaky Phillies rotation in the second half of their third-in-a-row NL East championship season.

Both players have been excellent so far this post-season. They've both pitched 3 games, allowed 4 runs, and have a 20:3 strikeout to walk ratio. The big difference, if you can call it big, is that Lee has pitched more innings (24.1 to Sabathia's 22.2), and has allowed fewer earned runs (2 to Sabathia's 3). Thus, Lee has an eye-popping 0.74 ERA compared to Sabathia's merely gaudy 1.19 ERA.

So what can we expect from these two in this series? Both have faltered in their career against the opposing team. In 9 career starts, Lee has a 4-4 record against the Yankees, posting a 5.02 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 39:18 strikeout to walk ratio. In 4 career starts against the Phillies (including the post-season), Sabathia has a 1-2 record with a 5.55 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and 17:8 strikeout to walk ratio.

Looking to splits, both pitchers have been better against right-handed hitters over their entire careers, although not drastically so. For Sabathia, he has given up a .694 OPS to righties and .647 OPS to lefties. For Lee, he has given up a .733 OPS to righties and .714 to lefties. This year, however, it has been much more drastic for both pitchers. For Sabathia, .681 for righties and .560 for lefties. For Lee, .734 for righties and .583 for lefties. Both teams' lefties should struggle against these pitchers.

At the new Yankee Stadium, both pitchers have done well this year, although with Cliff Lee having a very small sample size, of course. Sabathia pitched 15 games during the regular season and had a 3.17 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Lee won the 1 game he pitched there this year, letting up 1 earned run in 6 innings, for a 1.50 ERA but a 1.67 WHIP. At CBP, Lee was 3-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. ~~Sabathia hasn't pitched in Philadelphia yet in his career.~~ [EDIT: Sabathia has pitched one post-season game at CBP and no regular season games. In that one game, he took the loss and had a 12.27 ERA, 3+ WHIP, and a 5:4 strikeout to walk ratio. Clearly not good at all, the "small sample size" bell should be ringing loud and clear.]

Finally, how have the two done against the individual hitters in the opposing lineups? Having been in the AL, Lee has a much longer track record against the Yankees' hitters and many have fared very well against him. Only Raul Ibanez has seen Sabathia a significant number of times, although in limited at-bats the top of the Phillies lineup has dominated Sabathia. (The numbers here include post-season plate appearances.)

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Victorino	10	0.556	0.600	1.000	1.600
Rollins	14	0.385	0.429	0.769	1.198
Ibanez	43	0.275	0.326	0.525	0.851
Ruiz	5	0.400	0.400	0.400	0.800
Howard	9	0.333	0.333	0.444	0.777
Werth	8	0.250	0.250	0.500	0.750
Francisco	6	0.200	0.333	0.400	0.733
Feliz	8	0.125	0.125	0.250	0.375
Utley	6	0.000	0.167	0.000	0.167

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Rodriguez	20	0.333	0.450	0.733	1.183
Teixeira	26	0.391	0.462	0.696	1.158
Jeter	30	0.407	0.467	0.519	0.986
Posada	22	0.286	0.273	0.667	0.940
Swisher	24	0.333	0.458	0.444	0.902
Cabrera	12	0.273	0.333	0.545	0.878
Matsui	19	0.294	0.368	0.412	0.780
Cano	19	0.222	0.263	0.222	0.485
Damon	23	0.091	0.130	0.091	0.221

With the track record for these two aces being so close, the best prediction is that the games they pitch should be close battles, at least as long as the starters stay in the game.

The only clear loser here is the Cleveland Indians.

On Who Ought To Win

Jeff — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 05:54:16 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

I CAN'T HELP HOW HARD I TRY

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Driving back from lunch today, I got to considering what I wanted to write about. The offseason's weird; despite so many people saying to me "the season's over, what do you have to discuss?" there's always a ton of material, a ton of different subjects worth a close look. It's just that sometimes I don't feel like writing about the ideas that come to mind.

Today, I haven't really been in the mood to talk about the Mariners. Fortunately, a lot of people are still focused on the playoffs. "The World Series is coming up," I thought to myself in the car. "That's kind of a big deal." So I switched gears and started mulling over different topics related to the World Series. One of those topics, naturally, was rooting interest. Who are people going to root for? I should post a poll!

You might have noticed that I didn't post a poll. For one thing, Christ, enough with the polls. And for another, what would be the point? If I put up a poll that said "Phillies or Yankees?" 95% of you would say Phillies and 85% of you would leave a comment about how you can't remember the last time you were so bored by a World Series matchup. I shot down the poll idea. It was a stupid idea.

What it did do, however, was make me ask myself who I'm rooting for. And though I chose the Phillies, I didn't choose them because they're playing the Yankees; I chose them because - according to my brain - "Raul deserves a title."

That surprised me. I wasn't expecting that kind of reaction. I don't know how in touch the rest of you are with your brains, but me, I don't know how I feel about something unless I ask myself about it, and it was only when I asked myself about the World Series that I realized what I think about it. I want the Phillies to win. Because it turns out I think Raul Ibanez deserves to win a championship.

It's a silly sentiment, but not an unusual one. People wanted to see Peyton Manning win a title because they thought he deserved to win. We wanted the Mariners to surround Edgar with a championship team because we thought he deserved to win. Ray Bourque winning a Cup with Colorado was a huge, huge deal because people had spent so long going on about how badly he deserved to win. Every year in every sport as the playoffs approach, you'll hear fans and writers talk about how they hope Team X can pull it out, because Player Y deserves to win it all.

Why do so many of us think this way about certain players? That became my thought experiment for the afternoon.

Boiled down, I think it's a matter of conditions. In that, there are a handful of conditions a player should meet if he is to be thought of as a player who deserves to win a title. This rather obviously isn't falsifiable, since there's no master list out there of players people thought deserved to win, but then I don't intend to present it as such. This is just a theory thought up while I wasn't doing any work.

The first condition is that the player has to be a veteran. Often, but not always, one of at least ten years. There's no one out there saying "man, that Felix really needs a ring." When Dustin Pedroia got his, there wasn't any sentiment of "well FINALLY." We see veterans as being more deserving, presumably because they've been doing their job for so long that they've poured a lot of themselves into it. They've fought. They've been through the wars, so to speak. Rookies and young guys don't deserve anything. No one deserves immediate success. Players should have to earn it, and here in America, there's no way of earning anything quite like punching your time card day after day and year after year. It's also noting that "_ deserves to win" generally comes with an unwritten qualifer of "before he retires," and young guys are seen as having all the time in the world. Veterans are in a race against their calendars.

The second condition is that the player has to be perceived as a guy who really cares. And caring, in this case, usually means "demonstrates effort." Players who deserve a championship are players who really want a championship and do everything in their power to get one. Players who train hard in the offseason. Players who seem to leave everything on the field. Players who take losses hard, players who're never satisfied and who put their team above themselves. All the standard "gamer" cliches, really. Raul Mondesi was pretty good. Derek Bell had his years. Gary Sheffield has been awesome. But I've never met anyone who thought any of those players were deserving of a championship, because - whether right or wrong - they've conveyed the impression that they're in it for themselves. Fans don't really take kindly to selfishness. Fans want to root for a guy who cares as much about a team as they do.

The third condition is that the player has to be good. Or at least have a history of being good at some point or another (bonus if he is/was good for your team). Joe McEwing probably worked his ass off, but effort isn't enough. You can't swing a dead cat without hitting a shitty player who tries really hard. More than a guy who maximizes a lousy skillset, fans want to get behind a guy who maximizes a good skillset, or a great one. We watch sports to be amazed by players doing extraordinary things. The players who do a lot of them - these are the players we're more likely to see as deserving. There are players with exceptional dedication and there are players with exceptional talent, but the ones we want most to see win are the ones in possession of both. Because there are few things with which we identify more closely than the drive to defy probability and become the best.

The fourth and final condition is that the player has to be seen as a good person. It sounds kind of stupid, but there's a reason why stuff like The Alex Rodriguez/stripper story gets in the news, and while it's preposterously naive to expect the world's best athletes to be the world's best people, that's what a lot of fans want, and so they want to reward the guys that meet their standards. Now, I don't apply this condition to the extent that a lot of other people do. I think A-Rod deserves to win, and I thought Barry Bonds deserved to win. I know a lot of you are the same way. But that's my rational mind talking, and I know that, perhaps irrationally, it would warm my heart more to see Raul (or Jamie Moyer a year ago) get a ring than to see A-Rod or Bonds do the same. And ten years from now you won't see me feeling sorry for Elijah Dukes. Fans are horrible judges of athlete character, for reasons both in and out of their control, but there's nothing people enjoy more than passing judgment, and if a player is judged to be a good or seedy individual, that will in large part determine whether he's seen as a sympathetic character should he age without a championship. Even in an environment as unjust as professional sports, people still want to see the triumph of decency.

Those are the four. If a player is deemed as being deserving of a championship, he's probably considered:

(1) a veteran
(2) a hard worker
(3) a good player
(4) a good person

I don't know that a player is automatically disqualified if he fails to meet one of the conditions. As I said, this is a theory, not a scientific hypothesis. I think Ichiro deserves to win a championship, and I don't know shit about who he is as a person. What I think would be an automatic disqualification is if a player were the opposite of one of those conditions; young, lazy, bad, or nefarious, or what have you. So perhaps these are more guidelines than conditions, in that you'll be fine if you kind of go along with them, but if you don't go along with them at all, you're out of luck.

Of course, there's a whole other question here of whether any player actually deserves to win a championship in the first place. I don't know the answer to that. On the one hand, a championship isn't a right. Nowhere in any rulebook does it say that the title is to be awarded to the team with the best player or the best person. But on the other, the difference between championships and brownie points is that championships are won every season, and if you already know that some collection of players is going to take one once a year, then you're left wondering whether a brief postseason tournament is the best measure of which players are deserving of the glory and which players are not. Francisco Rodriguez pitched lights-out for five weeks. Edgar Martinez hit like a madman for 15 years while contributing more to charity out of the public eye than any of his teammates. Did Edgar Martinez deserve a championship? Did Francisco Rodriguez?

I don't know. The trouble with this sort of philosophy is that you're left with more questions than you started with. The only thing I'm certain of now is the same thing I was certain of this afternoon: I'm gonna root for the Phillies. Because Raul Ibanez deserves a God damn ring.

Player Origins of the 2009 Philadelphia Phillies

John Sickels — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 19:03:13 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Philadelphia Phillies infielder Jimmy Rollins, drafted in the second round in 1996.(AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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Philadelphia Phillies: Player Origins

Here are the player development origins of the 2009 National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies.

PITCHERS:

Antonio Bastardo, LHP: Signed by the Phillies as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2005.

Joe Blanton, RHP: Drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the first round in 2002, from the University of Kentucky. Acquired by the Phillies in a trade with Oakland in July 2008.

Chad Durbin, RHP: Drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the third round in 1996, from high school in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The Phillies signed him as a free agent in December 2007.

Scott Eyre, RHP: Drafted by the Texas Rangers in the ninth round in 1991, from the Junior College of Southern Idaho. The Phillies acquired him in a trade with the Cubs in August 2008.

Cole Hamels, LHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the first round in 2002, out of high school in San Diego, California.

J.A. Happ, LHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the third round in 2004, from Northwestern University.

Cliff Lee, LHP: Drafted by the Montreal Expos in the fourth round in 2000, from the University of Arkansas. Acquired in a trade with the Indians this summer.

Brad Lidge, RHP: Drafted by the Houston Astros in the first round in 1998, from the University of Notre Dame. Acquired in a trade with the Astros in November 2007.

Ryan Madson, RHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the ninth round in 1998, out of high school in Moreno Valley, California.

Pedro Martinez, RHP: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 1988. The Phillies signed him as a free agent this year.

Chan Ho Park, RHP: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent from South Korea in 1994. The Phillies signed him as a free agent.

POSITION PLAYERS

Paul Bako, C: Drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the fifth round in 1993, out of the University of Southwestern Louisiana. The Phillies signed him as a free agent this year.

Eric Bruntlett, INF: Drafted by the Houston Astros in the ninth round in 2000, out of Stanford University. The Phillies got him in a trade with Houston in 2007.

Miguel Cairo, INF: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent out of Venezuela in 1990. Signed by the Phillies as a free agent in 2009.

Greg Dobbs, INF: Signed by the Seattle Mariners as an undrafted free agent from the University of Oklahoma in 2001. The Phillies claimed him on waivers in 2007.

Pedro Feliz, 3B: Signed by the San Francisco Giants as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 1994. The Phillies signed him as a free agent in 2008.

Ben Francisco, OF: Drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the fifth round in 2002 from UCLA. The Phillies acquired him in a trade this summer with the Indians.

Ryan Howard, 1B: Drafted by the Phillies in the fifth round in 2001, from Southwest Missouri State University (now known as Missouri State University).

Raul Ibanez, OF: Drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the 36^th round in 1992, from Miami-Dade Community College-South. The Phillies signed him as a free agent last winter.

Jimmy Rollins, SS: Drafted by the Phillies in the second round in 1996, out of high school in Alameda, California.

Carlos Ruiz, C: Signed by the Phillies as a free agent in 1998, out of Panama.

Matt Stairs, OF: Signed by the Montreal Expos as an undrafted free agent in 1989, out of high school in Canada. The Phillies acquired him in a trade with the Blue Jays in 2008.

Chase Utley, 2B: Drafted by the Phillies in the first round in 2000, out of UCLA.

Shane Victorino, OF: Drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the sixth round in 1999, out of high school in Wailuku, Hawaii.. Selected in the 2005 Rule 5 draft.

Jayson Werth, OF: Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the first round in 1997, out of high school in Chatham, Illinois. Signed as a free agent by the Phillies in 2006.

ACQUISTIONS:

Via Trades/Waivers: Blanton, Eyre, Lee, Lidge, Bruntlett,. Dobbs, Francisco, Stairs.

Phillies Farm System Products: Bastardo, Hamels, Happ, Madson, Howard, Rollins, Ruiz, Utley.

Free Agents: Durbin, Martinez, Park, Bako, Cairo, Feliz, Ibanez, Werth.

Rule 5: Victorino.

ORIGINS

Drafted from North American high schools: Durbin (3^rd), Hamels (1^st), Madson (9^th), Rollins (2^nd), Victorino (9^th), Werth (1^st).

Drafted from junior colleges: Eyre (9^th), Ibanez (36^th)

Drafted from four-year colleges: Blanton (1^st); Happ (3^rd), Lee (4^th), Lidge (1^st), Bako (5^th), Bruntlett (9^th), Francisco (5^th), Howard (5^th), Utley (1^st)

Undrafted free agents from North America: Dobbs, Stairs

Latin Free Agents: Bastardo, Martinez, Cairo, Feliz, Ruiz

Asian Free Agents: Park

As you can see, the Phillies built their team through a variety of sources. Once the American League winner is determined, we'll analyze their roster and compare the two.

Day-After Thoughts

dajafi — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 01:12:35 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

21 days ago: Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cole Hamels throws in the outfield during practice for the National League Championship baseball series Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2009, in Philadelphia. Hamels will start Game 5 Wednesday against the Los Angeles Dodgers with the Phillies leading the series 3-1. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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A few maybe-pertinent musings while I half-watch the Yankees vs. Angels and wonder how Scott Kazmir, a pitcher who averaged about 5 2/3 innings and 101 pitches per start this season, and has never been particularly efficient, can possibly go deep into this game:

Joe Torre continues to tinker with his lineup and rotation much more than you'd expect, given his rep for unflappability. He's used a different batting order--though the same eight guys--in each of the first four games, and has bumped Vicente Padilla ahead of Game One starter Clayton Kershaw to go tomorrow night with the Dodgers' season on the line. Meanwhile, the Phillies' lineup may as well be written in stone: same eight guys, in the same batting order, through the first eight games of the postseason.
One big concern going into this series was that the Dodgers' two lefty starters, Wolf and Kershaw, and three lefty relievers would neutralize Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez. In the most obvious sense, this hasn't come to pass: Howard has been out of his mind against all comers, and has two big hits--his two-run double in Game One against Kershaw and the two-run homer off Wolf in the first inning Monday night--plus a few walks against the southpaws. Ibanez hit the stunning three-run homer off George Sherrill in the first game that provided the margin of victory. Utley had a key RBI single against Wolf that brought the Phils within a run in the sixth inning Monday. But Ibanez is 0 for 10 since that first game, including three hitless at-bats against Wolf and Hong-Chih Kuo/Manny Ramirez, and Utley is 1 for 6--though he's also drawn three walks.
Before Game Two, I didn't think it was especially likely that Padilla would rise to the occasion in what amounted to a must-win game for the Dodgers. Of course, he pitched one of the best games of his life, keeping pace with Pedro Martinez for long enough that the patience of the Dodger hitters, combined with untimely defensive mistakes on the part of the Phillies, delivered two runs and a win. Could the former Phillie, just two months removed from getting released by the Rangers, do it again tomorrow, in a literal must-win, with the crowd in his face and the temperature 35 degrees colder? Padilla's splits offer a mixed prognosis. He was actually better on the road this season, with a 7-2 record, 3.60 ERA and .232 opponent batting average. But night baseball hasn't agreed with him: in 17 appearances (16 starts), he's just 6-5 with a 5.38 ERA and .301 opponent batting average. Nor was Padilla particularly effective in Citizens Bank Park over the two seasons he called it home: 10-11 record, 4.98 ERA in 26 career starts.
Though Cole Hamels earned his fifth career postseason win in Game One, his performance didn't particularly impress. His first two playoff starts have shown some of the same traits that took away from his regular season: loss of focus and composure in one or two bad innings, plus more than a bit of lousy luck. It's been over a month since Hamels last turned in a quality start--an eight-inning, five-hit, one-run, 10-strikeout gem against Washington. That said, every split suggests that Hamels will be sharper against LA for Game Five: he's been better at home, better at night, and has a lot of success against the Dodgers, regular and postseason both, to draw upon.
Still more proof that batting average doesn't tell you much: the Phils as a team are hitting .224 in this series to the Dodgers' .233, and have outscored them 25 to 12.

23 hours until first pitch of Game Five...