SB Nation - Ben Broussard

Fire Everyone! - Derek Shelton

Ryan — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 04:56:11 -0000

Derek Shelton and Kenny Lofton

This is the second installment in a 12-part series.

Derek Shelton became the Indians hitting coach in June 2005, replacing Eddie Murray. At the time, the Indians ranked towards the bottom of the league in hitting, and manager Eric Wedge thought it was time for a change:

"It's not just about right now, it's just about what we feel is best for our ballclub today, the future and long term," said manager Eric Wedge, who told Murray he was fired. "From an offensive standpoint, I feel we can do better. But it's not just about Eddie Murray. I just felt that we needed to make a change and I felt this was best for our ballclub."

Specifically, it was thought that Murray's coaching style was what caused his dismissal. Murray did not take the initiative in giving hitting advice, leaving it up the player to come to him. If Murray had had a more aggressive style of coaching, the move might not have been made even with a struggling offense, for the Indians value a satisfactory process almost as much as satisfactory results.

So, in looking at whether Derek Shelton should keep his job after the season, I have to either completely leave out of my analysis Shelton's coaching style, or to make assumptions based on snippets of articles or interviews. And all of this is moot if Eric Wedge isn't here next year, for the hitting coach comes under the manager's purview. So, for the purposes of this article, I'll assume that the Indians are satisfied with his coaching demeanor and style, and that Eric Wedge will have the opportunity to make a decision on Shelton this winter. That leaves me mainly with statistical analysis and subjective reasoning, though I have several angles in mind in which to look at the numbers.

1. Do established major-leaguer hitters improve once they arrive in Cleveland? And, did established major-league hitters improve once Shelton joined the team?

Let's tackle the performance of the 2005 team first. Murray was fired the first week of June, so let's see if there was any measurable change among the everyday players from June onwards:

OPS+	April	May	Murray	June	July	August	September	Shelton	Better
Victor Martinez	68	61	64.5	134	142	184	150	152.5	Shelton
Ben Broussard	95	138	116.5	66	72	130	118	96.5	Murray
Ron Belliard	138	101	119.5	81	86	97	138	100.5	Murray
Jhonny Peralta	97	155	126	76	118	108	96	99.5	Murray
Aaron Boone	33	22	27.5	119	107	119	74	104.75	Shelton
Coco Crisp	78	165	121.5	116	93	114	144	116.75	Murray
Grady Sizemore	64	109	86.5	184	76	132	142	133.5	Shelton
Casey Blake	64	83	73.5	109	83	141	97	107.5	Shelton
Travis Hafner	126	118	122	199	232	158	182	192.75	Shelton
Jose Hernandez	59	20	39.5	112	118	12	47	72.25	Shelton

Of the 10 players who got 200 or more at-bats, six of them improved under Shelton. Among those were very significant improvements, namely Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez. The overall team offense improved as well:

OPS+

April

May

Murray

June

July

August

September

Shelton

Better

Team

100

113

103

126

117

Shelton

So it looks like Shelton was an improvement over Murray. What about Shelton versus other hitting coaches? Here's a list of established major-leaguers the Indians brought in from 2006 through this year, their previous offensive numbers, and what they did in an Indians uniform (OPS+ with the Indians in bold):

OPS+	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	Trend
Jason Michaels	98	111	85	87	40	102	Down
Trot Nixon	123	109	96	78	54	x	Down
David Dellucci	96	126	123	76	85	37	Down
Jamey Carroll	92	68	94	56	85	88	Up
Mark DeRosa	59	97	108	102	118	105	Even
Josh Barfield	x	x	96	54	x	x	Way Down

Aside from Jamey Carroll, there's no success story to point to. Most of the players on this list were older role players coming into their stints with the Indians, so there probably wasn't much upside for Shelton to tap. However, Josh Barfield was a big miss for Shelton, as he went from a decent starter with Padres to on the cusp of bombing out of the majors altogether on Shelton's watch. The others don't bother me as much; Jason Michaels has gone back to being a platoon player, and Dellucci and Nixon were winding down their careers.

2. Do players improve or regress during their years with Shelton?

Here's a list of everyday players who have spent at least two full seasons with the Indians during the Shelton era:

OPS+	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	Trend
Victor Martinez	130	121	127	85	115	Down
Ben Broussard	105	109	125	x	x	Up
Jhonny Peralta	137	83	100	108	91	Down
Aaron Boone	82	77	x	x	x	Down
Grady Sizemore	123	132	122	128	103	Even
Casey Blake	99	114	101	110	x	Up
Travis Hafner	168	179	118	65	121	Down
Jason Michaels	x	85	87	40	x	Down
Ryan Garko	x	113	117	97	113	Even
Shin-Soo Choo	x	118	x	146	123	Up
Franklin Gutierrez	x	67	103	80	x	Down
Kelly Shoppach	x	x	101	123	91	Down
Asdrubal Cabrera	x	x	101	88	106	Up

Some of these trends can be chalked up to forces beyond a coach's reach, like Travis Hafner's injuries. The two that stick out to me are Jhonny Peralta (on the bad side) and Shin-Soo Choo (on the good side). Peralta's 2005 season (at age 23) seemed like the beginning of a fantastic career, but since then he hasn't come close to that production. Conversely, Choo started out his major-league career struggling at the plate, but since the second half of last year has become one of the better corner outfielders in the American League. Franklin Gutierrez and Casey Blake have both had good seasons since leaving the Indians, but nothing markedly better than some of the years they had under Shelton.

3. How has the Indians offense fared versus the rest of the American League?

AL Ranks	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Batting Average	5	4	7	12	6
On-Base Percentage	3	3	5	7	5
Slugging Percentage	3	4	5	7	8
Runs	4	2	6	6	6

Even with some upheaval in the last couple years, the Indians have remained a league-average offense. Considering that Progressive Field has played as a neutral park during the last couple years, that's a decent showing. It certainly wasn't the offense that drove the Indians out of contention this season.

Final Analysis

Each season since Derek Shelton arrived in Cleveland, the Indians have finished at least in the top half in the league in runs. During his first two seasons, the Indians offense was among the best in baseball. Although he's had a couple misses (Josh Barfield, Jhonny Peralta), the rest of his record stacks up well, especially given the circumstances in 2008 and 2009. If Wedge isn't fired, he should be brought back. And even if there is a new manager, Shelton should be recommended to remain in his position.

Transactions: Ryan Garko Traded

Ryan — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 06:47:40 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Ryan Garko.

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Traded 1B/OF Ryan Garko to the San Francisco Giants for LHP Scott Barnes (A+)

Several years ago, I thought Mark Shapiro hung onto Ben Broussard a year or so too long. Broussard was a nice complementary bat, but by the time he was traded in 2006 he was making $2.5M with another raise to come after the season. But thanks to hitting in a platoon, Broussard hit .321/.361/.519 that season, and Seattle's Bill Bavasi bit, sending the Indians Shin-Soo Choo and Shawn Nottingham.

This time Shapiro traded Ryan Garko at just about his peak value. Garko, thanks to a recent hot streak, is hitting .285/.362/.464, is still cheap, although he'll start getting expensive in 2010 as arbitration kicks in. Garko's a below-average defender at first, and a massive liability on the bases, so his whole value is based on his bat. And the Indians have depth at first base, with Matt LaPorta ready for the majors. In the short term, though, the Indians are utilizing the roster spot to give Andy Marte some at-bats.

The Giants are probably the only team in baseball that views Garko as enough of an improvement over what they have to justify dealing for him. Their current first baseman, Travis Ishikawa, is a good defender, but only hitting .269/.318/.411. And that's not their only offensive weak spot (they're 15th in the NL in runs scored), so any offensive upgrade is a priority for them.

In return for Garko, the Indians get more much-needed young pitching. Scott Barnes is a 21-year-old left-handed pitcher with good command (career 2.6 BB/9IP) and good stuff (career 10.3 SO/9IP). He's also positioned to make the jump to AA fairly soon, which means he'll be ahead of the normal starter development schedule. From all I've read, he's going to be a starter in the majors.

I really like the timing of the move. Garko is more than three years removed from free agency, but will become less and less of a value as he gets into his arbitration years. And if the Indians feel that Matt LaPorta will be best at first base, Garko needed to go anyway.

Farmers Only Featured Farmhand: Zack Cozart

BK — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 11:00:20 -0000

Just because Carolina's off today doesn't mean they can't have the Featured Farmhand. He's also currently the Southern League Hitter of the Week. Here's a little more about the Mudcats shortstop:

Zachary Cozart was the Reds 2nd round pick in 2007, the 79th overall pick. I know we've rehashed lots of former 1st rounders, but the Reds have a had a lot more success in the 2nd round. Some recent highlights: Sean Watson, Travis Wood, B.J. Szymanski, Joey Votto, Ben Broussard, and Adam Dunn.
Cozart is originally from Collierville, Tennessee, and is the most successful baseball player from there. From there, he was a standout in 3 years at Ole Miss, where he played alongside current Reds starter Matt Maloney.
He's spent a lot of time in Dayton, as he played there his rookie season of 2007 and all of 2008. He was a merely solid hitter, hitting .280/.330/.457 with 14 HR and 49 RBI, but was known for his good defense. He's been projected as one of two players in the upper levels of the Reds system (along with Paul Janish) that are capable of playing SS at the major league level.
He made the jump from Dayton to Carolina this offseason, and has been showing a promising bat so far. His walk rate has gone way up, and it's shown in his OBP, which is up to .373 so far. He's been able to sustain his power numbers even after moving up 2 levels, as he already has 6 HRs in AA.

And now, on to the games:

Louisville was off last night. Columbus based RRs, listen up. The Bats are in Columbus starting tonight at 7:05, with Ramon Ramirez making the start.
Carolina was off tonight too. They start a new series with West Tenn starting at 7:15. No starter listed, but it's Zach Stewart's turn.
Sarasota lost to Tampa 7-3. as the pitching staff got abused by Yankee hitting. Neftali Soto was 1-for-3 with a double for the S-Reds, and Denis Phipps had three hits and drove in a run. Also starting to get back into the swing of things, Jake Kahaulelio was 2-for-5 in the leadoff spot. Up next: Jeremy Horst takes on Lakeland at 7.
Dayton also lost 2-1 to Fort Wayne in a game where the offense couldn't get anything going. Miguel Rojas had 2 of the Dragons 5 hits on the night. Curtis Partch had a decent outing, giving up 2 runs in 7 innings. Up next: The Dragons take on Fort Wayne again at 7:05. No starter listed for the Dragons, but it's been over a week since Matt Fairel pitched. Shouldn't it be him? However, it's on Lance Janke's day, so that's a possibility too.
Roster Moves: Yen-Wen Kuo was placed on the DL in Dayton. Kevyn Feiner was sent down from Sarasota to replace him.

This Week in White Sox Minor League Baseball

larry — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 11:00:14 -0000

Jordan Danks

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This week:

Jeffrey Marquez has been less than awesome so far for the Knights. In two starts, he's lasted just 1.2 and 3.2 IP, while giving up 14 hits, walking 5, and striking out just 2. His GO/AO has been a pedestrian 1.00.
Shoeless in SC covered the Knights game on Friday night. Scott Podsednik is back.
White Sox hitting instructor Jeff Manto shared his thoughts on Gordon Beckham, Dayan Viciedo, Tyler Flowers, Brandon Allen, Jordan Danks, and Jon Gilmore.
Brandon Allen, once described by a member of the White Sox front office as the organization's "sleeping giant", awoke last season - likely one of the reasons for the avoidance of corner types with their first round pick. He's continued his hot hitting at Birmingham this season with a .333/.381/.462 triple slash, including a double and two triples (yes, Allen is mobile enough to legitimately hit triples).
Beckham: .368/.442/.632.
Jayson Nix remains in Arizona at extended spring training; his recovery from a right quad injury has been slower than expected.
From the Where Are They? file: Jose Martinez is still in extended ST rehabilitating from a severe leg break - no timetable for his arrival at Kannapolis. Steven Upchurch - you know, the 12th round pick last year who signed for 6th round money who was probably a 3rd round talent? - is also in extended ST, with an assignment to Great Falls likely. Nevin Griffith, who had Tommy John surgery last June, is - you guessed it - in extended ST and a July-ish return to game action is targeted.
Kanny triplets update: Both Daniel Hudson and Dexter Carter suffered minor non-arm injuries this week. Hudson took a line drive off his leg on Sunday and was removed from the game. He made his start on Saturday and went 6 IP with 3 hits, 4 K, 0 BB, and a HBP. After striking out a batter on Friday, Carter was removed from the game after 3.1 IP due to an injury to the side of his right foot just below the ankle. Unclear what the extent of that is. Gregory Infante continues to receive adulation in the press, after he followed up his extremely impressive first start with a solid second.
The White Sox acquired Andy Phillips from Pittsburgh for Michael Dubee, who was originally acquired for Tadahito Iguchi. Pirates fans think they hosed Kenny Williams. Phillips replaces Ben Broussard as the old guy playing first at Charlotte.
Finally, Jordan Danks went not one, not two, but three consecutive games without striking out. He continues to struggle against pro lefties but it's a small sample size and his collegiate history provides hope that he can straighten that out. .275/.383/.550 thus far. Birmingham may be calling sooner rather than later.

As always, check the Minor League Update thread for daily updates and commentary.

Biting The Hand That Once Fed You: Cubs 6, White Sox 7

Al — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 15:03:55 -0000

I'll freely admit I didn't see the last half of this game -- the West Coast starts wind up ending far too late for someone whose work schedule starts at 4 am -- but three former Cub farmhands were primarily responsible for the Cubs' 7-6 loss to the White Sox in Las Vegas late last night.

Michael Restovich, who Jim Hendry signed in 2006 to provide a potential platoon partner for Jacque Jones (and then Dusty Baker refused to play him), homered off Angel Guzman in the 8th inning to tie the game. Then, Ben Broussard and Josh Kroeger, who were teammates at Iowa in the Cubs' organization last year, teamed up in the ninth for the winning run, Broussard driving in Kroeger, who had singled and advanced to second on a wild pitch by David Patton.

During the part of the game that I did see, Jeff Samardzija gave up three runs in three innings, issuing no walks. That's good, but the two batters he hit isn't. The Shark seemed up in the zone throughout, and the Sox got 14 hits off Cubs pitching, five of them for extra bases. John van Benschoten, a one-time first-round pick of the Pirates who has never been able to stick in the majors, was responsible for six of those hits and allowed four of the Cubs runs. At 28 and with a 9.20 career major league ERA in 90 innings, I might gently suggest that van Benschoten try another line of work.

Good things from Cubs players: Ryan Theriot had three hits and Mike Fontenot (a triple) and Aramis Ramirez had two each. That's about it -- Cubs pitching wasn't that great, except for the scoreless innings thrown by Chad Fox and J. R. Mathes, neither of whom has much of a chance of making the 25-man roster.

Len & Bob spent quite a bit of time on the air with a PR flack touting the virtues of spending vacation time and money in Las Vegas, which gave me the impression that hotel bookings in Vegas are way down and they're getting a little desperate in these tough economic times. The attendance of 11,459 was pretty good on a cool night. We'll see if the day game attendance today is as good. I'll have a game preview/thread up at 1 pm CST.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 14:56:33 -0000

Some things to read while searching for a can of black paint.

Since the news broke that Ben Sheets will have surgery and miss most of 2009, there's been some speculation that the Brewers may try to offer him a two-year deal at a bargain price while hoping he bounces back. Adam McCalvy ended that speculation yesterday. Barring a sudden and dramatic turn, Sheets' Brewer career is over.

Braden Looper's deal is worth $4.75 million and has a mutual option for 2010, although I haven't seen the price tag on it yet. Brew City Sports has Seth McClung's reaction, but Gareth is even less impressed.

With Braden Looper in the fold, Baseball Prospectus predicts the Brewers will win 85 games, which would leave them ten games behind the Cubs and 3 games back of the Braves and Phillies, who would tie for the NL Wild Card. Looper adds two wins to the projection.

I have two bobble head notes today. First, The Brew Town Beat is one of several blogs questioning the curious choice of Jeff Suppan for a bobble head. Meanwhile, in the comments of this post on the promotional schedule, Trent Durrington raises an interesting point: with the exception of the brat, all the 2009 bobble heads are white, despite the Brewers being one of the more diverse teams in baseball.

MLB FanHouse's Better Know a Prospect series covered the Brewer system yesterday, with Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar and Angel Salome profiled. The more I look at the Brewer roster heading into camp, the more I'm certain all three guys will spend at least a large portion of 2009 in AAA. I've got a post on that scheduled for later today. Meanwhile, Sean (Chone) Smith has a post at The Hardball Times discussing minor league defense, and Alcides Escobar draws a mention.

On the hot stove:

Angels: Are reportedly clearing roster space to make room for Bobby Abreu.
Blue Jays: Acquired former #1 overall pick Matt Bush from the Padres for a PTBNL.
Dodgers: Signed Eric Milton to a minor league deal.
Giants: Signed Ramon Ortiz to a minor league deal.
Mets: Re-signed Jose Valentin to a minor league deal.
Rays: Won their arbitration case with Dioner Navarro, who will make $2.1 million this season.
Rockies: Signed Randy Flores to a minor league deal.
Royals: Signed Jamey Wright to a minor league deal.
White Sox: Signed Ben Broussard to a minor league deal.

Baseball America noticed that, with the deal listed above, the Blue Jays will enter camp with 27 pitchers and just 13 position players on their 40 man roster. The Brewers, for comparison purposes, will have 22 if they drop a position player to add Braden Looper.

Earlier this week, I mentioned that Ray Durham was complaining about not receiving any offers this offseason. The Nationals offered Durham a shot to be their starting second baseman, and he turned it down. Durham is 37 years old and has made $7 million or more each of the last five seasons despite being a part-time player (fewer than 500 at bats) in all of them. If he's looking for similar money in this market, which can't even find money like that for Adam Dunn, then perhaps it is time for him to retire.

An increased emphasis on defense, where Durham is substandard, probably isn't helping his case either. FanGraphs wonders how far down this road baseball can reasonably go.

It's a little early in the day (still pre-coffee) for me to be trying to understand new statistical research, but Tangotiger's notes on the impact of events, sorted by position in the lineup, are interesting enough that I may come back to it once my brain is fully functional.

First, though, I may need to call and cancel my XM subscription: the AP is reporting Sirius-XM is preparing to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, which likely means they won't make their scheduled payment to Major League Baseball, which will in turn likely be the end of live game broadcasts on the service.

If you missed it yesterday, be sure to stop by this post to sign up to win one of ten WhatIfSports gift certificates as part of the Brewer Advent Calendar. I've got another giveaway today, so check back around noon to sign up for that one too.

Oh, and it sounds like the Brewers got out of High Desert and the California League at the right time.

Drink up.