SB Nation - Kenji Johjima

Points Of Contention: Rob Johnson's Defense

Jeff — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 05:31:32 -0000

Writing is easier when you don't have to think up an intro.

In terms of things we know we can measure pretty well, Rob Johnson the defender doesn't stand out, at least not in a good way.

His error rate, for whatever that's worth, is about average. His four in 754.1 innings matches up well with the league-average rate of 6.1 per 1000.

His arm is decent. He's thrown out 20 of 71 would-be base-stealers - a rate of 28.2% - against a 27.6% league average.

He kind of sucks at blocking balls. His 2009 rate of passed balls was twice the league average, and the Mariners were a bottom-third team in wild pitches. In addition, I couldn't tell you how many times I saw Johnson flat-out drop a pitch that hit him in the glove.

These factors were covered in devil_fingers' evaluation of 2009 catcher defense, and in that study, it was determined that, based on his errors, arm, and ability to receive, Johnson was about two runs below average in the field. Now it's obviously important to remember that understanding performance in a single season isn't the same as understanding true talent, but given these numbers and all of our own observations over the course of the year, I don't see any particular reason to believe that Johnson is a superior defender when it comes to things we can directly measure.

And yet he's developed this whiz-kid reputation. Why? Because, out of guys who caught at least 50 games last season, Johnson posted the lowest CERA - ERA against as a catcher - in the league, at 3.23. This versus Kenji Johjima's CERA of 4.86. Pitchers weren't giving up as many runs throwing to Johnson as they were throwing to Kenji, and this - pretty much this alone - earned Johnson both a lot of playing time and a generally favorable standing among fans.

So given that he doesn't really do anything else well, either standing at the plate or crouching behind it, one's opinion of Rob Johnson comes down to one's opinion of this statistic. Those who like Johnson do so because they feel he helps keep the opponent off the board, while those who don't do so because they don't believe CERA reveals an ability on the catcher's part to control a game. This should be examined.

The absolute first thing we have to do with CERA is consider the pitchers. Catchers don't catch an equivalent distribution of arms, and sure enough, Johnson was catching the bulk of the team's better talent. Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, and Jarrod Washburn made up more than half of Johnson's PA's caught, while for Johjima, they made up just 9.4%. For this reason, we should expect their CERA's to be considerably different. The guy who catches the better pitchers is almost always going to post the more flattering rate of runs scored.

However, we wouldn't expect their CERA's to be that different, so clearly there was an additional performance effect. I looked at how the bullpen did throwing to each guy a few weeks ago and, sure enough, their walk and strikeout rates were a little better with Johnson than with Kenji. The picture's a little messier with starting pitchers since the distribution was so skewed, but the take-home message here is that the difference in CERA's was more than simply the difference in pitchers caught.

So with that in mind, the question becomes one about sustainability, about whether or not this sort of thing is reflective of an actual ability and is therefore repeatable on a year-to-year basis. This being beyond my capability, thank goodness for Keith Woolner. All year long, when people have talked about the significance of CERA, others have referred back to work done on the subject a decade ago, and that work was done by Woolner at Baseball Prospectus. Here's the original study, here's a follow-up, and here's a later study done after receiving some criticism from Bill James.

Read those articles. I know they're heavy on the math and somewhat lacking in floral prose, but if you're interested in this subject, then Woolner's work is required reading.

There's too much in there for me to summarize point-by-point. But in the end, Woolner didn't find strong evidence of an effect. He didn't find weak, potentially insignificant evidence of an effect. He found no evidence of an effect. At all. Even just looking at the extremes, the absolute best and worst catchers in Year X, they regressed all the way to the mean in Year X+1. Woolner's ultimate conclusion:

For now, at least, the hypothesis most consistent with the available facts appears to be that catchers do not have a significant effect on pitcher performance.

Based on CERA and its component metrics, Rob Johnson had a much better season of game-calling than Kenji Johjima. But given that this effect has never been shown to be repeatable, we probably shouldn't label it game-calling at all, as doing so implies an ability. We don't actually know if what we're trying to measure exists, and until we do, the most responsible approach is to side with the null hypothesis. There's no proof. There's no proof that Johnson's alleged greatest strength is even the least bit significant, or real.

What's funny is that, if we're just scrounging for as much evidence as we can find, there's a lot more evidence that Kenji was bad than there is that Johnson is good. Kenji was here for four years. In three of those years, his numbers were a lot worse than those of his backup(s), and in the fourth they were about equal. For Johnson, we have one year. 80 games. With that in mind, it makes more sense to suggest that Rob Johnson looked good simply because he wasn't Kenji Johjima. There's more reason to dock the latter than there is to credit the former.

But we needn't focus on that paragraph, because Woolner's work trumps it. Nobody's ever verified that game-calling is a skill, and because of that, if one wants to believe that Johnson calls a great game, then one needs to provide a lot of evidence. Tons of it. Years and years and years' worth. Rob Johnson has started 82 games behind the plate in his Major League career. It is impossible for one to conclude anything about game-calling over a span of 82 games.

Working in Rob Johnson's favor is that pitchers like him. The reason he caught so much of Felix, Bedard, and Washburn is because that's what Felix, Bedard and Washburn wanted. If the pitchers feel like Johnson calls a good game - if the pitchers feel comfortable throwing to him - then that has value. You want your pitchers to feel comfortable when they're going to work. But then Greg Maddux felt most comfortable throwing to pretty much anyone but Javy Lopez, yet of the 12 catchers who caught Maddux for more than 25 games, opponents put up the second-lowest OPS with Lopez behind the plate. Comfort is good, but it's not proof of ability, nor is it a trump card. If you have two guys who're pretty much equal, and a pitcher would rather throw to one of them, then that's fine. But if you have two guys, and one of them is measurably better than the other, then the responsibility falls on the pitcher to feel comfortable with the guy who maximizes the team's chances of winning.

Rob Johnson is a 27 year old Major League catcher who, in his rookie season, became a favorite of some high-level pitchers and coaches. In that regard, he's off to a hell of a start. But a lot of fans have gone so far as to suggest that he's a valuable player, the reasoning being that he keeps the other team off the board. We can't say that. We can't say that and have it mean anything, because that statement has yet to be confirmed. We will know that Rob Johnson is a valuable player if and only if he improves in the areas we know we can measure. And while PITCHfx may allow for someone down the road to show that game calling is a legitimate, repeatable ability, it would really put my mind at ease if Rob Johnson would think about maybe swinging a bat.

Well I'll Be Damned

Jeff — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:25:10 -0000

No wonder he left. All those pitchers were being subversive.

(Thanks to Landon Howell for the notice)

Kenji is off to Hanshin, by the way. He signed a $21m/4yr contract with the Tigers, who're presumably every bit as excited to have his name as they are to have his talent. The $21m more than makes up for the money he left on the table by leaving the Mariners, and when you consider that he would've been 35 when his extension here ran out...I don't know who was right and who was wrong, but if you believe that the universe evens itself out, then it's worth noting that two of the three pitchers who wanted nothing to do with Johjima wound up needing surgery, while Kenji gets his money and his happiness, making this as perfect an outcome as he ever could've imagined.

Good for you, Kenji.

Kenji Johjima signs with Hanshin Tigers

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 14:28:19 -0000

More photos » by Ann Heisenfelt - AP

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Former Mariners catcher Kenji Johjima has agreed to a four year deal worth 21 million dollars to return to Japan to play for the Hanshin Tigers.

"Hanshin was the first team to set up talks with me," Johjima said. "I'll do everything I can do to help the team win."

Johjima also talked with his former team, the Softbank Hawks, but they could never work out a deal. Johjima hit .268 in his four seasons in Seattle, and it will be interesting to see how he fairs after his hiatus from the Pacific League.

How do you guys think he will fair in 2010?

Kenji Johjima Doesn't Care About The Money*

Jeff — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 03:16:25 -0000

* much

From Kirby Arnold this afternoon, we get this bit about Johjima through Mark Lowe:

"I talked to [Kenji] last year about it during batting practice one day," Lowe said. "We were in the outfield at Shea. He told me, 'I don't care how much money I'm making. I don't play for the money. I want to play every day.' "

Two years ago, the Mariners played a three-game set in New York between June 23rd and June 25th. Prior to that series, the M's had played 75 games, of which Kenji started 56 - 54 of them behind the plate. At that point he was on a pace to start about 120 games and appear in 130, putting him in the company of other regulars like Jason Varitek and Dioner Navarro.

Since that series, the Mariners have played 249 games, of which Kenji started 115. Now, granted, he had some injury trouble in 2009 that kept him off the field and skews that number, but it was evident to anyone paying attention that his role was being reduced, due to both his ineffectiveness and the emergence of whatever skill it is that Rob Johnson's supposed to provide. And for a guy like Kenji, who's barely content starting five or six times a week, you have to imagine that that sort of cutback didn't sit very well. Well, I mean, now it's obvious that it didn't sit very well, so we don't have to imagine anything. But still, it's somewhat remarkable to note how calm and composed and professional Kenji remained over the past year and a half despite having his playing time diminished and his competence as a receiver frequently called into question. Deep inside, he must've been pissed. Remember that, according to Alan Nero, Kenji thinks he's still on top of his game.

Faced with the situation that Kenji faced at the end of the year, a lot of people would've stuck around for the money. Some of them would've kept quiet. Others would've bitched. Few of them would've bailed, and though it's not like many players have the sort of guaranteed playing time overseas that Kenji does, his motives here seem unusually genuine - he just wants to play, and the Mariners didn't have room. So he left a lot of money on the table in the name of greater personal satisfaction. I can understand being cynical and insisting that there must've been some sort of buyout, but me, I don't see it. This particular situation strikes me as being exceptional. Kenji's not poor. He knows there'll be money waiting for him in Japan. And, with the money, there'll be a great deal more playing time. We all make some sacrifices in order to be a little happier. I think Kenji just made a bigger one than most of us get the opportunity to make.

Realistically, this is probably about as pleasant a break-up as a sports fan gets to face. Kenji didn't overstay his welcome. He didn't block any youth, he didn't handcuff the front office or coaching staff, and he never caused a ruckus. By the same token, he was past his peak, his contract didn't project well at all, and the organization's top catching prospect is knocking on the door. So he left, and to top it all off, he didn't leave for another team or another rival; he left to go home, overseas, because he just wants to play, and play close to his family. There's no bitterness, and there's no sadness - there's just appreciation, for what Kenji's done, what Kenji did, and who Kenji is.

That's neat. People don't often get to through through an exit like this one. I wish Kenji all the best going forward, and unlike in previous cases with departing Mariners, this time I mean it unconditionally. Kenji was a good player and an excellent professional with Seattle, and to make the sacrifice he made for the reasons we've seen stated - he deserves for this to be the best decision he's ever made.

Tuesday afternoon Quick Hits

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 17:57:27 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

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Here are some links compiled from this Tuesday afternoon:

The Kyodo News is reporting that the Hanshin Tigers are interested in signing now free agent catcher Kenji Johjima. Johjima decided to opt out of the final two years of his contract yesterday.
Tim Hardicourt is reporting that Brewers have officially signed pitching coach Rick Peterson. The Brewers hope that Peterson can straighten out the pitching staff, starting with getting pitcher Yovani Gallardo back on track to be the teams ace.
The Rockies plan to announce long-term extensions for GM Dan O'Dowd and manager Jim Tracy. Both well deserving, in my opinion.
The Boston Herald continues to follow Jed Hoyer and the Padres GM search. Hoyer is believed to be the favorite for the job.
Joel Sherman of the NY Post has a piece about MLB possibly investigating whether or not Mariano Rivera spit on a ball before the tenth inning in Game 3. He has a video, but it is inconclusive. Still, Mariano Rivera has pitched in some of the most watched baseball games to date. Could he really have stayed under-the-radar all this time? Highly unlikely.
The Phillies certainly have the momentum in the NLCS while the Yankees have a 2-1 lead over the Angels. Both are very exciting series' that are setting up for another epic World Series. Who do you guys like? Phillies vs. Angels? Phillies vs. Yankees? Will the Dodgers pull off a miraculous comeback? Let's hear some of your thoughts.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 14:27:09 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun celebrate Fielder's two appearances in The Hardball Times' postseason awards.

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Some things to read while frosting your zombie.

The Brewers are expected to hold a press conference later today to officially introduce Rick Peterson as their new pitching coach (FanShot). I'll give the Brewers at least this much credit: I'm still not sure how I feel about the move, but at least they acknowledged a problem and made one.

The Hardball Times has Part 2 of their 2009 awards up, this time focusing on the hitters, and Prince Fielder is acknowledged as both a champion of the three true outcomes and a runner up for the NL's Best Player Award.

Meanwhile, it's tough to find a pitcher who was less consequential in 2009 than Chris Smith. Smith had the third lowest average leverage in FanGraphs' list of 2009's top mop-up relievers.

At least Smith was pretty good in that role, though: Brew City Sports is down to four competitors in their tournament to determine who sucked the most in theirs.

At the moment he's probably the most likely candidate to open next season at third base, but The Junkball Blues makes the case for trading Casey McGehee this winter, and I still think that would be the best decision.

The Nashville Sounds' website has a look back at Josh Butler's unlikely season. In just a matter of months, Butler went from repeating Brevard County to earning a surprise September callup from the Brewers, and now is continuing to pitch in the AFL this fall.

Beyond the Box Score has a look back at the 2009 NL Central, and what went right and wrong for the Brewers and their divisional rivals.

There's only one transaction note to pass along today:

Mariners: Kenji Johjima has decided to forfeit the remaining years on his contract with the Mariners and return to Japan.

Speaking of catchers, The Crawfish Boxes noted a story glorifying the "game calling ability" and other unquantifiable attributes frequently attached to Brad Ausmus. At least Ausmus has a sense of humor about his offensive abilities, though:

Ausmus is hitting .293 this year. When asked to explain why he is hitting so much better this season, the Ivy League educated Ausmus replies, "Small Sample Size."

It's mean, but I'll admit I laughed when I learned Stubhub accidentally sent an ad for playoff tickets to Cub fans. Apparently the ad was unintentionally sent to fans of several teams, including the Mets.

Yesterday I mentioned a blog post from minor leaguer Garrett Broshuis, detailing some of the financial challenges minor leaguers face while trying to earn their way to the minor leaguers. Today he details what he'd like teams to do about it, and I think his requests seem pretty reasonable.

I've brought it up before, but I'll mention it again because I've got a new great read on it: Aaron Gleeman has a link to a story on the 35th anniversary of Tommy John's ligament replacement surgery.

Apparently I missed the story when it was unveiled in June (I was in the middle of wedding/honeymoon/move month), but Seamheads has a nice look at a monument built to honor the original Milwaukee Brewers, who spent one season playing at the corner of Lloyd and 16th St. before moving to St. Louis to become the Browns, and eventually the Baltimore Orioles. On this day in 1901, seven players, including future Hall of Famer Jesse Burkett, left the Cardinals to join the Browns, who went 78-58 in their first year in St. Louis, finishing second in the American League.

And, of course, on this day in 1982 the Cardinals came from behind to beat the Brewers, 6-3, in Game 7 of the World Series.

That's all I have for you today, unless you wanted to read a joke about Yankees fans or hear about Joe Posnanski's rough day.

Drink up.

Kenji Johjima opts out of deal, will return to Japan

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 18:57:22 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

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Mariners catcher Kenji Johjima announced today that he will opt out of the final two years of his contract and resume his career in Japan. The 33-year old catcher leaves after four seasons with the Mariners, a career .268 average, and 48 home runs.

"After lots of very deep thought and deliberation, I have decided to return home to resume my career in Japan," Johjima. "I have had a wonderful experience competing at the Major League level. The last four years have been extraordinary, with great teammates and great coaches.

After two solid seasons, offensively, his numbers dropped dramatically and his movement behind the plate was limited. The Mariners can now use Rob Johnson or Adam Moore behind the plate, but his departure frees up 16 million dollars that would have gone to him over the next two seasons.

Johjima will return to Japan where he is regarded as more than a star, owning a career .298 average with 187 home runs. His best year came in 2004 when he hit .338 with 36 home runs in 116 games.

If the Mariners decide to add another backstop, they could look into Rod Barajas or former Mariner Jason Varitek.

2009 Catcher Defense: Filling in the Holes (yet again)

devil_fingers — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:17:43 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

That Minnesota pretty boy might be in the playoffs, but he's go nuthin on One Man, Five Tools.

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Even if you aren't a FanGraphs junkie like myself and so many others, if you spend any time there looking at the WAR rankings in order to, say, evaluate who should be the 2009 MVP candidates, you've undoubtedly noticed (due to Joe Mauer's incredible season) that currently, they do not have a system in place to evaluate catcher fielding. Hey, no one's perfect, and knowing Mr. Appleman and his crew, they're probably waiting until they get a system they're happy with before they implement something.

I don't make any great claim to originality here, as you will see if you read on, but for those of you who want a rough idea of how different catchers "measure up" behind the plate for your MVP arguments or to settle the eternal "I wonder just how bad a guy can be at blocking pitches," question, here is a rough attempt to evaluate every catcher's defensive 2009.

Choosing a Methodology (With Qualifications)

Before I go any further, I should make clear that for the purposes of this post that I assume that it is well-established that the differences between catchers with regard to gamecalling (as expressed in, e.g., "catcher's ERA") are negligible, and thus such issues will not be discussed in this post. When I discuss catcher defense, like most others, I will be discussing preventing stolen bases, blocking pitches, etc.

One of the difficulties with evaluating catcher defense with regard to even these issues is that, much more than with other fielding positions, the catcher's performance is dependent on another player -- namely, the pitcher. No matter now strong or weak the catcher's arm is, he can't escape the reality that he depends on the pitcher's skill with regard to holding runners, quickness to the plate, etc. While the catcher's skill with regard to blocking pitches that are off the mark is clearly important, catching Tim Wakefield poses a unique challenge (just ask Josh Bard). And so on.

For these reasons, probably the best way of measuring catcher defense is Tom Tango's WOWY (With or Without You) method of defensive evaluation as detailed the 2008 Hardball Times Annual. You can read about the details in the links provided. Versions of WOWY for catchers have also been done by Brian Cartwright and Dan Turkenkopf. I would do it that way if I could. The main issue is that 1) it's pretty complicated, and beyond my present capabilities, and 2) it requires something like Retrosheet, which isn't available until after the World Series is over, so even if I could do it, I couldn't get the numbers during the season of even now...

In lieu of that, I'm going to be doing something much simpler, which, while not quite as good, is, I think, pretty decent. Just keep in mind the qualifications about not adjusting for particular pitchers made above.

The Method Used Here

For non-WOWY catcher defense, the basic idea is to 1) choose what events you're going to deal with, 2) determine each catchers performance with respect to league average, and 3) decide the run value of each event. Like I said, this post isn't that original: very similar methods are used/suggested by Rally and chuckb. I have most closely modeled my "catcher defense metric" on the method outlined by the Amazing Justin Inaz (now a regular at Beyond the Box Score). His weights for each event seem about right to me, and the general principles are sound. One modification I've made (I'll note the other as I go along) is in the denominator of some stats. when Justin did his version, he was using THT's catcher defense stats, which only recorded catcher innings. Since then, the new Baseball Reference has come out with more detailed individual catcher defense stats, including plate appearances. While the difference isn't huge, I feel that it's more accurate to use plate appearances (batters faced) as the denominator for things like pitch blocking and errors, since while every inning (other than some ninth [or later] innings) has 3 outs, the catcher has to be out there whether there are 3 or 10 batters during those three outs. Otherwise, I'm pretty close to Justin's method, and you can read there for more details.

Stolen Bases/Caught Stealing: First, we figure out the league rate for caught stealing. One cool thing about the new Baseball Reference is that it separates out the catcher caught stealings from the pitcher pickoffs, so we can exclude the pickoffs (not under the catcher's control) from the equation. So we total the CSctch +SB to get total stolen base attempts (SBA) and then to total CSctch/total SBA for the lgCS rate. We use the weight of .63 runs for each caught stealing, which represents the average linear weight of the caught stealing (.44 runs) plus the weight of the stolen base not achieved (.19 runs). The formula for runs above/below average for each catcher is thus (CS - (lgCSrate) * SBA) * 0.63.

Wild pitches/passed balls: The league rate is (WPlg + PBlg)/lgPA. The linear weight for each passed ball/wild pitch is 0.28 runs, which we make negative since the more WP/PBs a catcher has, the worse his defense is. The formula for each player is ((WP + PB) - (lgWPPBrate * PA)) * -0.28.

Errors: Justin accounts for two kinds of errors -- throwing errors and fielding errors. Baseball Reference also includes catching errors (on throws). I've assimilated catching errors to fielding errors. There are separate linear weights for throwing errors (-0.48) and fielding errors (-0.75). The method is the same as above. Get the league rate, then see how far over/under the player is. For throwing errors: (TE - (lgTErate * PA)) * -0.48. Fielding errors: (FE - (lgFErate * PA)) * -0.75.

Then you just add them all up to get the total runs above/below average. It's not perfect, and hopefully, there will be some improved options soon, but the results do seem to reflect reality. I thought about coming up with a "rate" version like UZR/150, but that isn't as simple as prorating for innings caught/PA -- one needs to normalize each sort of event separately, the chart is confusing enough as it is. For now, this is just a value measurement of what each player did this season. But before the big chart, let's take a look at some standout performances. I've rounded to one decimal place to tone down the illusion of great precision.

Standouts and "Standouts"

Caught Stealing: Gerald Laird of the Tigers dominates here at + 11 runs. The next closest player was Johjima at +6.5 runs, then Koyie Hill at +5.4. Now, Laird had a lot more time behind the plate to accomplish that, but one wonders why teams kept trying to run on him. At the bottom of the rankings for CS runs are fan favorite A.J. Pierzynski at -4.5 runs, Yorvit Torrealbea at -5.1 runs, and blowing away the field is defensive legend and Boston Red Sox stalwart Jason Varitek, at -10.7 runs.

Pitch blocking: As for the actual "catching" part of catching, the best in baseball this season was the Phillies' Carlos Ruiz, at +5.6 runs. Jason Varitek gains some of his cred back here at +5.1 runs (I wonder what it would be if he had to catch Wakefield). The Man, the Myth, the Legend, Matt Wieters may not have quite cemented his Hall of Fame credentials, but he can block a pitch decently at +3.9 runs. The players are grouped by their performance for separate teams, so I just noticed that one of my favorites, Gregg Zaun, was +2.9 for the Orioles, and +1.4 for the Rays, which puts him at +4.3, or the real number 3. Maybe Baltimore let him go to soon -- he definite brings his Z-Game when he's blocking pitches. At the bottom of the rankings, Jorge Posada, Josh Bard, and and Rob Johnson (why did he get so much playing time?) are all tied at -3.8, Russell Martin (?!) is at -5.1 (although he saw more PA than just about any other catcher on the list). And bringing up the rear... this is going to be a shock, prepare yourself... Miguel Olivo, at -7.8. Think about that -- it's only -0.28 runs per WP/PB. Sure, he's "only" -2.7 runs worse thatn Martin, but Martin saw almost 1400 more PA than Olivo this season. This shows we're on the right track, as Brian Cartwright's WOWY study done previous to this season showed Olivo to be historically terrible at blocking the plate. Another great job of scouting by Dayton Moore and the Process Servers.

Throwing errors: Given that there's so little variance with this stat, there's probably less of a repeatable "skill" when it comes to this stuff. In other words, if we were doing a projection, there would be much more regression for TE and FE runs than others. Still, we're measuring value here, so it goes on the record. Gerald Laird leads the pack again at +1.5 runs, followed closely by Yorvit Torrealbea at +1.3 the Kurt Suzuki and Henry Blanco at +1.2 each. At the bottom, we have Rod Barajas (otherwise a good defensive catcher) at -1.6, Miguel Montero at -1.7, and sadly, my boy John Buck at -3.0. He had some really, really horrible games at the beginning of the season. At least he can move two inches to his right or left.

Fielding errors: Jason Kendall justifies his major league status with a +1.0 here, as does Russell Martin. Rod Barajas shows he's Joe Mauer's equal, as they both have +0.8. Mike Napoli is -1.6, the traitorous Paul Bako is at -2.0, and Brian McCann, who's decent at everything else, has an anomalous -3.6.

The Best and The Worst, and Others of Note: One Man, Five Tools, Indeed: Gerald Laird blows away the field at +13.3 runs. The Tigers made a conscious effort to improve their defense in the offseason, and whatever else happened, with Laird they certainly succeeded. At 0.9 WAR player without defense, with it he's about 2.2. Kenji Johjima might be overpaid, but at +8.8 runs defensively, he seems a bit less ridiculous. Dave Ross and Ryan Hanigan come in at +7.0 runs. Yadier Molina was very good, if not quite as godlike as some would think, but +6.6 runs is nothing to sneeze at, and makes him about a 4 WAR player this season. Joe Mauer's +4.3 is good, but he's not the best in baseball or the league, and that certainly doesn't make him a better MVP candidate than Zack Greinke. Matt Wieters is +2.5, so he'll probably stick at catcher, at least for a while.

Victor Martinez isn't as bad as some would say, being only -2.2 betweeen Boston and Cleveland. Jeff Mathis is a "great" defensive backup at -2.0. Or how about Jose Molina at -1.1 backing up Jorge Posada at -5.9? Giants cleanup hitter Bengie Molina is at -3.4

As for the bottom ranks... Josh Bard is at -7.3, the human swing machine, Miguel Olivo, is at -8.8, and the Living Stereotype, Mike Napoli, is at -9.7. No wonder the Angels think Mathis is a good defender.

The Big Chart

That's it. Keep in mind (along with the limitations mentioned above) that current season performance is not the same thing as true talent. I hope you will find this handy when trying to get various catchers' "real" WAR, and let others know about it. Let the arguments begin!

Rank	Player	Tm	PA	CSRuns	WP/PBRns	TERns	FERns	TotalRuns
1	Gerald Laird	DET	4842	11.0	0.6	1.5	0.2	13.3
2	Kenji Johjima	SEA	2597	6.5	0.9	0.9	0.5	8.8
3	Dave Ross	ATL	1517	4.8	1.6	0.3	0.3	7.0
4	Ryan Hanigan	CIN	2913	4.7	0.7	1.0	0.5	7.0
5	Yadier Molina	STL	5045	3.2	2.6	0.7	0.2	6.6
6	Koyie Hill	CHC	2755	5.4	0.2	0.0	0.5	6.1
7	Henry Blanco	SDP	2278	2.9	1.2	1.2	0.4	5.7
8	Carlos Ruiz	PHI	3887	-1.5	5.6	0.6	0.7	5.4
9	Raul Chavez	TOR	1818	3.6	0.5	0.0	0.3	4.4
10	Joe Mauer	MIN	4153	0.5	2.4	0.7	0.8	4.3
11	Rod Barajas	TOR	4298	2.6	2.5	-1.6	0.8	4.2
12	Brian Schneider	NYM	1976	1.6	1.2	1.0	-0.4	3.5
13	Ramon Hernandez	CIN	2069	0.6	1.7	0.6	0.4	3.3
14	Francisco Cervelli	NYY	1024	2.0	0.8	0.0	0.2	3.1
15	Lou Marson	CLE	572	1.6	1.0	-0.2	0.1	2.5
16	Eliezer Alfonzo	SDP	1128	2.2	0.3	0.6	-0.5	2.5
17	Matt Wieters	BAL	3384	-1.1	3.9	-0.2	-0.1	2.5
18	Ronny Paulino	FLA	2609	2.1	-0.4	0.4	0.5	2.5
19	Landon Powell	OAK	1205	2.8	0.5	-0.3	-0.5	2.4
20	Taylor Teagarden	TEX	2180	3.1	0.9	-1.3	-0.3	2.4
21	Omir Santos	NYM	3092	-0.7	2.8	1.1	-0.9	2.4
22	Ivan Rodriguez	HOU	3327	1.4	0.4	-0.2	0.6	2.2
23	Chris Iannetta	COL	3362	0.1	1.9	-0.7	0.6	2.0
24	Gregg Zaun	BAL	1974	0.2	2.9	-0.9	-0.4	1.8
25	Humberto Quintero	HOU	1893	2.4	0.4	-1.4	0.4	1.7
26	Corky Miller	CIN	702	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.1	1.7
27	Ramon Castro	NYM	822	1.8	0.6	0.4	-1.3	1.4
28	Mike Rivera	MIL	1227	-0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	1.3
29	Lou Marson	PHI	245	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	1.2
30	Jason LaRue	STL	1139	0.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	1.2
31	Craig Tatum	CIN	749	0.5	0.6	-0.1	0.1	1.1
32	Chris Coste	PHI	925	-1.0	1.4	0.5	0.2	1.0
33	Dusty Ryan	DET	337	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	1.0
34	Kurt Suzuki	OAK	5222	-3.4	3.6	1.2	-0.5	0.9
35	Michel Hernandez	TBR	1140	0.1	1.1	0.1	-0.5	0.8
36	Geovany Soto	CHC	3607	2.2	-1.1	0.4	-0.8	0.7
37	Clint Sammons	ATL	135	1.0	-0.5	0.1	0.0	0.6
38	Jamie Burke	WSN	155	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.6
39	Brad Ausmus	LAD	1086	-0.1	-0.1	0.6	0.2	0.6
40	Ivan Rodriguez	TEX	961	1.4	0.1	-0.5	-0.6	0.5
41	Matt Pagnozzi	STL	40	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.5
42	Chris Gimenez	CLE	245	-0.1	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.5
43	Pablo Sandoval	SFG	113	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.4
44	Buster Posey	SFG	179	0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4
45	Dioner Navarro	TBR	4097	0.5	-0.3	0.2	0.0	0.4
46	J.R. Towles	HOU	538	-1.0	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.3
47	Wyatt Toregas	CLE	710	-0.5	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.3
48	Alex Avila	DET	709	0.4	-0.6	0.4	0.1	0.3
49	Steve Holm	SFG	101	0.5	-0.3	0.1	0.0	0.3
50	Edwin Bellorin	COL	69	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.2
51	Dusty Brown	BOS	49	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.2
52	Jose Lobaton	SDP	205	0.2	0.3	-0.4	0.0	0.1
53	Jason Jaramillo	PIT	2347	0.2	0.2	-0.7	0.4	0.1
54	Jake Fox	CHC	30	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
55	Carlos Corporan	MIL	6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
56	Ryan Budde	LAA	38	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
57	A.J. Ellis	LAD	119	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
58	Guillermo Rodriguez	BAL	72	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
59	Bobby Wilson	LAA	98	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	-0.1
60	David Freese	STL	10	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1
61	Kevin Cash	NYY	297	-0.3	0.0	0.2	0.1	-0.1
62	Chris Coste	HOU	628	-1.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	-0.2
63	Adam Moore	SEA	241	-0.1	-0.2	0.1	0.0	-0.2
64	Corky Miller	CHW	383	-0.7	0.2	0.2	0.1	-0.2
65	Gregg Zaun	TBR	928	-1.5	1.4	0.5	-0.6	-0.2
66	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	TEX	3169	-0.5	1.6	-1.3	-0.2	-0.3
67	Wil Nieves	WSN	2538	1.4	-0.4	-1.1	-0.3	-0.3
68	John Hester	ARI	255	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.3
69	Paul Hoover	PHI	55	-0.3	-0.1	0.0	0.0	-0.4
70	Guillermo Quiroz	SEA	161	-0.1	-0.4	0.1	0.0	-0.4
71	Dane Sardinha	DET	404	-0.5	-0.3	0.2	0.1	-0.5
72	Shawn Riggans	TBR	156	-0.3	0.1	-0.4	0.0	-0.5
73	Matt Treanor	DET	157	-0.6	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.6
74	Kevin Richardson	TEX	70	-0.3	-0.4	0.0	0.0	-0.6
75	Victor Martinez	CLE	1991	-2.7	0.7	1.0	0.4	-0.6
76	Josh Thole	NYM	551	-0.1	-0.5	-0.2	0.1	-0.6
77	Tyler Flowers	CHW	123	-0.3	-0.5	0.1	0.0	-0.7
78	Michael Barrett	TOR	174	-0.3	-0.6	0.1	0.0	-0.8
79	Luke Carlin	ARI	176	-0.9	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.8
80	Kyle Phillips	TOR	186	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4	0.0	-0.9
81	Jesus Flores	WSN	980	0.4	-1.2	0.5	-0.6	-0.9
82	Jose Molina	NYY	1533	-0.9	-0.9	0.3	0.3	-1.1
83	Jamie Burke	SEA	424	0.7	-0.8	0.2	-1.4	-1.3
84	Kelly Shoppach	CLE	3042	-0.7	-0.9	-0.4	0.6	-1.5
85	Victor Martinez	BOS	1173	-1.5	1.0	-1.3	0.2	-1.6
86	Ramon Castro	CHW	975	-1.8	1.0	-0.9	0.2	-1.6
87	Rob Johnson	SEA	2927	2.4	-3.8	0.5	-1.0	-1.8
88	Ryan Doumit	PIT	2754	-1.0	0.5	-0.5	-1.0	-2.0
89	Chad Moeller	BAL	1116	-3.1	0.2	0.6	0.2	-2.1
90	Jeff Mathis	LAA	2902	0.8	-1.0	-0.9	-1.0	-2.1
91	Paul Phillips	COL	502	-1.8	-0.3	-0.2	0.1	-2.3
92	Mike Redmond	MIN	1513	-4.1	0.5	0.8	0.3	-2.5
93	Robinzon Diaz	PIT	1268	-1.0	-1.6	-0.3	0.2	-2.6
94	Yorvit Torrealba	COL	2438	-5.1	0.5	1.3	0.5	-2.9
95	Brayan Pena	KCR	1012	-0.5	-3.1	0.5	0.2	-2.9
96	Brian McCann	ATL	4763	-0.7	1.8	-0.4	-3.6	-3.0
97	Chris Snyder	ARI	1962	-1.3	-3.0	1.0	0.4	-3.0
98	Eli Whiteside	SFG	1348	1.0	-2.2	-0.7	-1.2	-3.2
99	John Baker	FLA	3919	-2.6	-0.5	-0.9	0.7	-3.2
100	Paul Bako	PHI	1328	-0.7	-0.3	-0.3	-2.0	-3.3
101	Russell Martin	LAD	5205	1.5	-5.1	-0.7	1.0	-3.3
102	Bengie Molina	SFG	4582	-1.0	-2.6	0.9	-0.6	-3.4
103	Jason Varitek	BOS	4133	-10.7	5.1	0.7	0.8	-4.1
104	George Kottaras	BOS	1166	-1.8	-3.0	0.1	0.2	-4.4
105	Jason Kendall	MIL	5296	-2.9	-1.5	-1.1	1.0	-4.5
106	John Buck	KCR	1693	-2.0	-0.1	-3.0	0.3	-4.8
107	A.J. Pierzynski	CHW	4927	-4.5	-0.8	1.1	-0.6	-4.8
108	Jose Morales	MIN	812	-2.1	-1.7	-0.1	-1.3	-5.2
109	Jorge Posada	NYY	3653	-0.8	-3.8	-0.5	-0.8	-5.9
110	Miguel Montero	ARI	4094	-1.4	-3.4	-1.7	0.0	-6.5
111	Nick Hundley	SDP	2877	-3.7	-2.0	-0.9	-0.2	-6.8
112	Josh Bard	WSN	2902	-2.8	-3.8	-0.4	-0.2	-7.3
113	Miguel Olivo	KCR	3821	0.7	-7.8	-0.9	-0.8	-8.8
114	Mike Napoli	LAA	3468	-4.3	-3.1	-0.6	-1.6	-9.7

80-76, Quick Game Notes

Jeff — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 23:57:31 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Teacher: Billy! What happened to you! Ruiz: Yes, Billy, what happened to you? Billy: I FELL

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Not a lot to say, and not a lot of desire to say it on a beautiful afternoon. We lost. Oh no.

Ryan Rowland-Smith is probably mad at himself for letting the win get away from him, but truth be told, I don't know that he should've been out there to start the eighth in the first place. He'd already thrown 104 pitches through seven innings, and though that's fewer than he threw in each of his previous five starts, by the same token, that's an awful lot of labor on a guy who already missed a chunk of time and doesn't exactly have the most durable track record. Plus, there was nothing but righties due up. RRS admitted that he ran out of gas in that final inning, and as far as I know it wasn't until John McDonald doubled that Wak even got someone up in the bullpen. A tough way to spoil an otherwise effective and pretty typical start.

Wak's choice of arms in the bullpen didn't win him any fans, either - Miguel Batista wound up pitching, with Garrett Olson warming up. I doubt he would've done that in an important game, but it's still never pleasant to see. Why Olson didn't come in when Adam Lind pinch-hit is beyond me. I'm a fan of Wakamatsu, but that eighth inning left a sour taste in my mouth, and I'd like to hear his explanation for why he managed it the way he did.

It's really fun to hate Miguel Batista, and I'm right there with you, but you know why he's been able to make so much money? Because sometimes he throws pitches like this.

The first one - the Felix one - you saw a few days ago. The Batista one is from this afternoon, and PITCHfx clocked it at 97mph. Miguel Batista is like old Felix if you take away old Felix's slider, curveball, and change.

The first time we saw a Mariner do that crotch chop thing, we assumed it was vulgar in nature. Recently Geoff Baker's posted a bunch of material trying to trace it back to more wholesome Japanese origin. Today, when Mike Sweeney returned to the dugout after his home run, the gesture was accompanied by a clearly audible "suck my dick". I don't know if today was just a joke after the team caught wind of the discussion or something, but at least one time now it has been unequivocally juvenile.

Kenji Johjima has very quietly raised his batting line to .251/.298/.413, and his nine home runs would put him on a 21-homer pace over 600 PAs. What the team is going to do about him this offseason remains a mystery, but as of this writing he is almost certainly the best catcher in the organization.

79-73, Game Notes

Jeff — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 04:44:57 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

My ankles just screamed.

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Akinori Iwamura's triple narrowly eluded Franklin Gutierrez. Michael Saunders was barely beaten home by a throw by Ben Zobrist. B.J. Upton's go-ahead single was a chopper to third that's normally a routine out. Bill Hall's long fly in the ninth was caught at the top of the wall. Baseball is a game of inches, and had just one or two of these plays gone the other way, we would've had a completely different meaningless result.

Like all Mariner fans, I am frustrated by Brandon Morrow, but to his credit he remains a guy I'll drive home a little too fast to watch. The very nature of inconsistency and unpredictability is such that there always exists the possibility that he'll put it together for seven or eight innings, and a pitcher with that assortment putting it together for a little while can be something to behold.

I try to remind myself of that every time I come away disappointed. This was just the latest Morrow appearance featuring a couple steps forward and a couple steps back, and though he looked terrific for a little while there and did a great job of tying up Upton in the fourth, he didn't have a whole lot working and came undone in the sixth when consecutive walks got him yanked after just 73 pitches. I don't know if this was the plan all along, or if Wak had seen enough, or if he didn't want Brandon to let some negatives erase his positives, or whatever, but for better or worse, few pitchers possess Morrow's ability to stop and start in the blink of an eye. Today those final nine pitches turned this from an effort to build off into something a lot more familiar.

Maybe this is a situation similar to that of Ian Snell. Maybe it'd be for the best to just let Morrow work on what he's working on and take another look at him next March. I dunno. All I can say is that, right now, Brandon Morrow is to me as pancakes are to Mitch Hedberg.

Remember Josh Wilson's hot streak? Today he crossed the 100 PA mark with the Mariners and stands with a .221/.267/.368 batting line. I understand that none of us are accustomed to getting much of anything out of shortstop, so any positive contributions from the position are amplified, and Wilson's shown a pretty good ability to make that catch over the shoulder, but this is all he is, and if what he is gets you excited, that's less a celebration of Wilson and more an indictment of his predecessors.

Sometime in the middle innings, Dave Sims remarked that the Mariners [were] an oustanding 32-17 in one-run games. "There's the difference between this year and last year," added Mike Blowers. Indeed, the difference between this year and last year is that this year we have more wins.

In the top of the eighth, with a man on first and a one-run lead, Kenji Johjima worked a 3-0 count before fouling out to the catcher. I can think of no clearer sign that you just royally fucked up.

This was a bad night for the broadcast's timing, by the way. In the fourth, Sims mentioned that Morrow was doing a great job of pitching to contact, and Morrow then immediately struck out Upton with three swinging strikes. In the sixth, Sims and Blowers were talking about how much better Garrett Olson is out of the bullpen, and just as they were saying that he doesn't have to think as much in relief he allowed a two-run triple off the wall. Then in the eighth they ran footage of Mark Lowe discussing how good the team's been when it scores four runs, and Lowe proceeded to cough up the tying and winning runs. I'm glad the conversation never steered towards Felix's contract situation.

An 8.5 inning game between two teams going nowhere featured twelve pitchers, with exactly none of the relievers being untested prospects. Joe Maddon used three pitchers to face four batters in the eighth. Sims said with just a little choler in his voice after the final out that this was managed as if it were a Game 7, and though I get what they were doing and find winning as much as possible to be a noble intent, Christ, really? Brian Shouse threw one pitch. Though all the managerial intervention may have improved each team's chances of winning, I'm sure they could've achieved a reasonable approximation by doing less. If baseball wants to try and make itself more universally watchable, it has to do something about mid-inning pitching changes.

Of course, the funny thing about pitching changes is that once they get to a certain point, you just want it to become a battle of wills, duration be damned. When Maddon went to his third pitcher of the eighth, I wanted Beltre to get on base, not just because I wanted more runs, but also because I wanted to see how far Maddon would go. Beltre singled, and though Springer stayed in, he fell behind Johjima 3-0, and God only knows what would've happened had he walked instead of popped out. Hannahan's left-handed. Better go to the bullpen! What if Hannahan reaches? Then you've got the righty Wilson to deal with. Better go to the bullpen! And if Wilson reaches, you've got the lefties Saunders and Ichiro...

Pitching changes, like everything annoying, are annoying, then more annoying, then less annoying, then hilarious.

Making his first start in two and a half weeks, Michael Saunders went 3-3 with two hits the other way and one unfortunate play at the plate that should've been attempted one fly ball earlier. Based on a sample size of this game, players perform at a considerably higher level when they pretty much get 16 days completely off. We're gonna need a bigger roster.

Ichiro: 2-4, .3550
Mauer: 1-4, .3714