SB Nation - Reed Johnson

Cubs Decline Arbitration To Gregg, Johnson, Harden And Chad Fox

Al — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 21:01:31 -0000

Will Reed Johnson return? If so, it won't be under arbitration.

The headline tells most of the story; no arbitration offers to Kevin Gregg, Reed Johnson, Rich Harden and Chad Fox -- here are a few more details from cubs.com, including this final paragraph:

The Cubs are in the market for a center fielder and could still re-sign Johnson, but if they did offer arbitration, they ran the risk of him getting a significant raise.

For the right price, I'd definitely like to see Johnson returning. A lot depends, I suppose, on other moves made first.

Cubs Not Expected To Offer Arbitration To Harden

Al — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 15:00:53 -0000

by Paul Beaty - AP

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Or Reed Johnson, Kevin Gregg, or Chad Fox, per Carrie Muskat:

A brief explanation (and I'll try to keep it simple): Teams that offer their free agents salary arbitration get Draft picks in return if the player signs elsewhere, and the number of picks is based on the player's rating. To get compensation, a team must offer arbitration to its Type A or B free agent and have that player either reject arbitration or sign before the deadline to reject the said arbitration.

The Elias Sports Bureau determines the designations based on statistical study. Gregg is a Type A free agent, Harden is Type B. Johnson and Fox are non-compensatory. So, if the Cubs did offer arbitration to Gregg and another team signed him, the Cubs could get two Draft picks. One would be a first-round pick from the signing team (if the team's pick is below the first 15 picks in the Draft) and a supplemental pick. The supplemental pick is a player taken between the first and second rounds.

If the signing team has a pick in the first 15 slots, the team that loses the free agent will get the signing team's second-round selection and the sandwich pick.A Type B free agent like Harden would be worth one Draft pick to the Cubs if he signs with another team. That pick is a supplemental pick.

I'm not quite sure how Gregg rates Type A and Harden Type B, but there it is. The Cubs clearly don't want Gregg back, so they won't offer arb even though two picks would come in return, because he'd likely accept and the Cubs would be stuck with him. Chad Fox, obviously, will likely retire. Since Reed Johnson is non-compensatory, it makes no sense to offer him arb -- if the Cubs want him back, they can negotiate with him as a complete free agent.

The official deadline is tomorrow; we'll know more by then.

Why (And How) The Cubs Should Trade For Curtis Granderson

Al — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:39:01 -0000

by Duane Burleson - AP

In addition to a good bat, Curtis Granderson would give the Cubs plus defense in CF.

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I'm not sure I really have to convince anyone here of the premise of the headline of this article; numerous people have already posted here about how useful Curtis Granderson would be in the Cubs' outfield, and several traditional media articles in both Chicago and Detroit have discussed this possibility (and those are just three examples of dozens of such articles). Granderson himself is busy this winter pitching a reality TV series:

The Detroit Tigers player has agreed to host a TV and online series titled "Stadium Secrets" where he takes sports fans on an exploration of stadiums.

The concept is similar to Authentic’s "Cities of the Underworld" on History channel.

"Authentic will be providing an exclusive, VIP experience for fans everywhere – a behind-the-scenes journey that will be exciting for all of us. I am eager to begin working on this project and look forward to a successful partnership," Granderson said.

Sounds interesting. I'm hoping Granderson gets to explore Wrigley Field in detail starting next summer. In the meantime, after the jump I'm going to examine Granderson's numbers in detail, explain why he's a perfect fit for Chicago and the Cubs, and look at who the Cubs might have to give the Tigers in exchange.

We have to first start this discussion with a couple of assumptions. First, we assume that Milton Bradley has been, or will be, traded before any Granderson deal, thus opening up center field for the Cubs (with Kosuke Fukudome moving back to right field, a position he plays better; this would solidify Cubs defense in two positions). It is, of course, possible that Bradley could be part of a deal for Granderson, but I am going to operate here under the assumption that he's not, that Bradley will be dealt to some other team (the Rays?) and that any Granderson trade would be a separate transaction.

Second, I think you have to assume that Granderson has to be, at this stage of his career -- he will be 29 on March 16, not old, but getting toward the end of his "best" year capability -- platooned, at least to some extent. His career splits:

vs. RHP: .292/.367/.528, .894 OPS
vs. LHP: .210/.270/.344, .614 OPS

Last year it was even more extreme:

vs. RHP: .275/.358/.539, .897 OPS
vs. LHP: .183/.245/.239, .484 OPS

Against RHP, Granderson hits almost as well as Aramis Ramirez -- All-Star level. Against LHP... well, he's basically Aaron Miles. So you'd probably want to re-sign Reed Johnson to give Granderson a break against LHP. Johnson doesn't hit righthanders, but against LHP his career line is .313/.378/.463, an OPS of .841, nearly as good as Granderson vs. RHP. These two together would produce outstanding offensive numbers from the CF position and good defense. The Tigers started Granderson in 155 games in 2009 because, well, they really didn't have any other choice. The other eight (remember, the Tigers played 163 games in 2009) games were started by Josh Anderson (1), Clete Thomas (2) and Ryan Raburn (5), and of those guys, only Raburn can hit (he hits LHP pretty well -- the Tigers could have gotten more offense out of CF if they had played Raburn there a bit more often vs. LHP).

So a modified platoon of Granderson and Reed Johnson would be, in my opinion, the ticket to success for the Cubs outfield. I say "modified" because Johnson would also have to spell Fukudome in RF from time to time; on those days, Granderson would have to start in CF vs. LHP. Sam Fuld would stick with the team as the fifth outfielder, someone who could take over in the late innings for Alfonso Soriano. The Cubs' outfield would be very good defensively and close to outstanding offensively.

Granderson's contract, though it has three full years to run (and a 2013 option) is not onerous. Like many Jim Hendry contracts in recent years, it's backloaded. In 2010, Granderson is due to make a somewhat-reasonable $5.5 million; that increases to $8.25 million in 2011 and $10 million in 2012, with a $2 million buyout in 2013 (all figures, as always, from the excellent Cot's Baseball Contracts), that would increase to $13 million (with some escalators to that based on performance) if the option is exercised. That would make the total financial commitment $25.25 million (presuming the buyout is done), spread over four years from 2010-2013. That's not unreasonable for a player of Granderson's ability.

Now -- how do you get him? The Tigers seem to be in partial-sell mode; that is, they'd like to shed some of their big-dollar contracts, but not get into full rebuilding mode. Thus, you'd need to get them at least a couple of players who could step in right now and contribute at the major league level. I can't find the link right now, but in a recent Baseball America online chat, a question was asked to BA's Jim Callis about this type of deal:

Q: Would Josh Vitters, Jake Fox, and Jay Jackson be enough for the Cubs to land Curtis Granderson if he really is available? Would you do that deal if you were the Cubs?

Jim Callis: I would think so. The Tigers have to dump salary, so I might try to hold onto Vitters and see if Detroit would take Ryan Flaherty, or hold onto Jackson and offer a lesser pitcher. But the Cubs are in win-now mode, and I think they'd bite.

I'd do this deal. Starlin Castro may be the flavor-of-the-month after his .376/.396/.491 performance in the Arizona Fall League, but I think he has higher upside than Vitters, who also hit well in the AFL (.353/.380/.455), and I would not trade Castro. It's entirely possible that Vitters will become a good major league player -- but you're getting a good major league player in return. Jake Fox is miscast in the National League; though he worked hard at playing 3B, C, LF and RF, his best position is DH. Throw in the fact that he played college ball at the University of Michigan, and he's a natural for Detroit. Jay Jackson has been up and down in the Cubs organization and while he has talent, I'm not quite sure what role the Cubs have in mind for him. He was exclusively a starter in 2009 after starting and relieving in 2008.

Callis thinks this would get a deal done and I'd do it -- but I suspect the Tigers might ask for Andrew Cashner instead of Jackson. That's a high price to pay -- Cashner has a shot at the major league bullpen for the Cubs in 2010 and he could even be viewed as a closer candidate by the Tigers, who are likely to let Fernando Rodney walk. (Rodney had a decent year in his first full season as closer, but will be 33 in March.)

I'd still do Vitters, Cashner and Fox for Granderson. For those of you who say, "No way! Keep those prospects! We can't give up both Vitters and Cashner!", I say that one of the things you can do with your prospects is turn them into productive major league players. The Cubs did this in acquiring Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez; when D-Lee was acquired he was just about the same age Granderson is now.

I might even do Vitters, Fox, Cashner AND Jackson for Granderson. To illustrate why, let me tell you a little story I just read about from Cubs history. Take it for what it's worth, because it came from the new edition of Leo Durocher's (ghostwritten by Ed Linn) autobiography, "Nice Guys Finish Last" (mini-book-review: recommended, for its interesting take on Durocher's era in baseball history). In it, he describes having discussions along with GM John Holland, with the Baltimore Orioles in the winter of 1971 about trading for Frank Robinson. According to the book, the Orioles asked for five young players -- pitchers Earl Stephenson, Jim Colborn, Bill Bonham, Joe Decker and outfielder Brock Davis. Durocher's book says they hedged, asking to make it four-for-one, not wanting to give up both Decker and Bonham.

You know what? They should have offered Baltimore GM Frank Cashen a handshake and done the deal right then and there. The next day, Robinson was traded to the Dodgers -- for four minor leaguers, only one of whom (Doyle Alexander) had a significant major league career.

The day after that, the Cubs traded Stephenson, Colborn and Davis to the Brewers for Jose Cardenal. Stephenson and Davis never had any significant impact in the major leagues. Colborn did have a few decent major league seasons, winning 20 games for the Brewers in 1973. Bill Bonham never became the big winner the Cubs thought he would; eventually he was traded to the Reds for Woodie Fryman and Bill Caudill. Joe Decker was traded to the Twins (with Bill Hands) a year later for Dave LaRoche.

None of those deals would have had the impact that getting Frank Robinson to play right field for the 1972 Cubs would have had. At 35, Robinson was past his best years, but would have been a far better hitter in Wrigley Field than he was in Dodger Stadium that year. (Robinson also got hurt in 1972 and missed almost 60 games; whether that would have happened to him as a Cub is unknown, obviously.)

The 1972 Cubs finished fourth in the league in runs scored and would have been a better offensive team with Frank Robinson than they were with Jose Cardenal; neither Bonham nor Decker had any significant impact on the '72 team.

The point is, that sometimes you have to take team "prospects" -- who may never pan out to what you hope they will -- to win now. Trading Vitters and Jay Jackson -- or even Vitters, Jackson and Cashner -- may provide dividends to the Detroit Tigers two or three years down the road. But acquiring Curtis Granderson, who, in addition to his talent on the field, is also, from all reports, a good clubhouse guy who spends a lot of time giving back to the community (and is a native Chicagoan), would go a long way to helping the 2010 Cubs return to the playoffs and give them a chance to win it all.

And isn't that what we all want?

As we often say here... GETITDON EJIM.

Take the Braves out of the running for these free agents

gondeee — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 00:28:22 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Was it Divine intervention that prevented the Atlanta Braves from signing Rafael Furcal... or just his agents.

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Last off-season the Atlanta Braves announced they had come to terms with free agent Rafael Furcal on a three-year contract... but less than 24-hours later Furcal had signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the aftermath of that episode, Braves President John Schuerholtz stated that the Braves would never again do business with Furcal's agents, the Wasserman Group, headed by super-agent Arn Tellem.

As a side note to this, if we had signed Furcal, then we would have moved Kelly Johnson to left field, we never would have signed Garret Anderson, and Martin Prado may never have emerged as a bona fide major league starter at second base. And we might have traded Yunel Escobar somewhere. Things tend to work out for the best sometimes, as Furcal layed an egg in 2009.

Here are the free agents this off-season who are represented by the Wasserman Group, and are therefore off-limits to the Braves (courtesy of MLBTR):

Wilson Betemit
Aaron Boone
Nomar Garciaparra
Jason Giambi
John Grabow
Rich Harden
Shawn Hill
Reed Johnson
Jason Kendall
Hideki Matsui
Jason Michaels
Guillermo Mota
Vicente Padilla
Wily Mo Pena
Joel Pineiro
Matt Treanor
Randy Wolf
Omar Vizquel

I must say that there's no one I really want on that list, so for this year at least, no harm, no foul.

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

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Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

Diamondbacks 5, Cubs 2: There never is any end to summer

soco — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 22:33:05 -0000

It's the end for the 2009 Arizona Diamondbacks.

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Well, it's a win.

Our Arizona Diamondbacks end the season by winning the final game and the series, but the Cubs never really put up much during the afternoon. It wasn't a game that was anything but an expression of pride, with neither team going to the playoffs, and everyone on the field seemed ready to be getting on with things.

It was a display of the Three True Outcomes, with the two squads combining for 22 strike outs and each scoring at least half their runs by the long ball. Some of the calls may have been questionable at the plate, but who can blame the umps for wanting to head home, too? Not that the players argued much; it's the last day before summer vacation, and no one cares what the teacher assigns.

The first couple innings were largely quiet, with the two teams trading scoreless innings. The Cubs were the first to get a base runner with Derrek Lee getting a single in the bottom of the first with two outs. Jake Fox promptly struck out on four pitches. He might have been inspired by the D’backs’ top of the first effort: both Stephen Drew and Justin Upton struck out, the latter on his way to four strike out day.

The second inning featured more of the same, with the Diamondbacks looking inept and the Cubs stranding a single from Jeff Baker. The third inning, however, the boys in Sedona Red would strike. Chad Tracy, in perhaps his last game with the Diamondbacks, doubled to fairly shallow left. So Taguchi appeared at first to have made the catch, and that was the way it was called. Perhaps it was luck, but he didn't attempt to pretend he caught the ball and rifled it to second, where Tracy had huffed his way. After a short deliberation, the call was reversed and Tracy had a double, if perhaps a slightly unorthodox one. It didn't seem that he would be advanced, however, with Augie Ojeda, also perhaps in his last game for Arizona, flying out to center and Doug Davis striking out on a pitiful bunt attempt. Stephen Drew, however, would not be denied, and scorched a ball to left. Tracy scored easily, and Taguchi’s errant throw allowed Drew to advance to second.

It looked like so much fun Gerardo Parra decided to join in, who fouled off a couple pitches before driving Drew in with a single to center. Upton would then add to his collection of strike outs for the afternoon, but the Diamondbacks were up 2-0.

To the third. Doug Davis, yet another player that might not be here next year and who had had up to that point a solid game, began to come unglued. Sam Fuld, perhaps the poster child for the disconnect between individual offensive production and the worth of RBIs, would take one strike before hustling to second for a double to lead off the inning. He was then subsequently moved to third by a sacrifice by Ryan Dempster, who was trying to help his own cause for the day. With one out, it seemed certain he would score, and Ryan Theriot tried his best. As a napkin lazily rolled across the infield, he would peck a ball to Davis’ right, who promptly picked it up and caught Fuld in a pickle between home and third. Theriot would sneak to second during the excitement, and although he would get advanced to third on a Davis wild pitch, there he would stay as Davis Houdini shed his shackles by forcing Lee into a grounder. The Diamondbacks were out of the jam.

Miguel Montero would start things off in the top of the fourth with a single, and then be quickly moved to third with a Mark Reynolds double. The stage was set for the suddenly resurgent Chris Young, who picked out a three wood and drove a shot to left center, which would effectively be all the Diamondbacks would need for the day to be triumphant.

At this point it was strike outs and a halfhearted attempt by the Cubs to salvage the last game of 2009. They would cut the lead to 5-1 with a solo home run by Fuld, who, as noted by Jim, who has dubious distinction of going the most career plate appearances without an RBI by a non-pitcher. He trails only Gene Good, who had 135 without an RBI for the 1906 Boston Beaneaters. The second RBI was considerably easier to come by as he sacrificed Reed Johnson in to score in the bottom of the seventh. 5-2 was the score, and 5-2 it would remain.

A few notes on the remaining three innings: the Diamondbacks had no trouble with the eighth, perhaps an attempt to deny there ever was a problem this season with that inning. Eric Byrnes, one of a half a dozen or more players to be looking at the search for a new team, popped out. In perhaps the most “fuzzy feeling” moment, however, came to end the Diamondbacks’ ninth inning. Upton came to the plate with two outs and Parra standing at second., batting average sitting at .300 square. An out would bring it down to .2998, technically a .300, and the record books might never notice the difference. Parra, however, was looking out for his outfield comrade. As Upton took a ball, he would take off for first, daring the catcher to throw him out. Geovany Soto obliged, and .300, true .300, non-qualified .300 was saved. AJ Hinch may have had the bitter beer face for the act, but Upton obviously appreciated it, giving Parra a hug as the game ended.

And really, it's this type of moment that reaffirms what's great about sports. Sure, who doesn't want to be a winner? But this human element, where a friend did a selfless act for a friend, transcends home runs or stolen bases. This completely unscripted moment is free of the framing that often makes equal scenes in fiction seem saccharine and hollow. It won't be recorded in books, or compiled in any highlight reel. Many of us might forget it as the years drive forward, or never pass it on. But it will remain.

So maybe 2009 wasn't a successful season. They often aren't. The Diamondbacks built something here today, this year. We, as fans, built something here. We won't know what it is, not until long after the winter comes. But the summer will keep rolling on, long green meadows with dusty infields where heroes hit long, long home runs, make diving catches, come back to the game after seeming to lose everything, and help each other to .300.

[Click to see full graph at fangraphs.com]

Master of his domain: Doug Davis +27.9

Also present: Gerardo Parra +10.7

Well, not everyone is Babe Ruth: Doug Davis (batting) -5.6

Mr. Golden Sombrero: Justin Upton -4.7

A fairly serene and talkative GDT, with 14 users generating 500 comments. Only one broke the century mark, and I hear he's pretty much the most awesome dude ever. Also present: Azreous, unnamedDBacksfan, snakecharmer, Fiona, hotclaws, Jim McLennan, pygalgia, kishi, NASCARbernet, Wailord, 4 Corners Fan, Giannaros, Wimb.

That's it for the Diamondbacks officially. From this point on we shoot without a script, make for uncharted territory, and yada yada yada. Stay tuned for lots of off-season coverage, ranging from analysis of players or team statistical subsets, to a report from the year 1860, investigative reporting about the new Spring Training site, a lament against the worship of amateur sport, and more! Until then, I'm your host, soco, saying goodnight.

Only 133 days until pitchers report.

All's Wells That Ends Wells: Cubs' Randy Wells Outstanding In Final 2009 Start

Al — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 20:53:53 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

Randy Wells finishes off an outstanding rookie season.

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Now here's something that can give us hope for 2010.

Randy Wells gave up a leadoff double to Stephen Drew and then shut the Diamondbacks down. He retired the next 14 in a row and allowed only two other hits, striking out ten, and the Cubs shut out the Diamondbacks 5-0. For the Cubs it was their eighth team shutout of the year (and third in their last eight games), and their first win over Arizona since April.

Wells set a season (and career) high with the 10 K's, and the seven innings pitched qualify him for the ERA leaders list -- at 3.05, he will rank 10th in the league (unless Josh Johnson of the Marlins, who will go in the season's final game tomorrow vs. the Phillies with a 3.08 ERA, passes him). He also walked only one this afternoon, completing 2009 with 46 walks in his 165.1 innings pitched -- that ranks 12th in the NL in fewest walks for anyone who has 162 or more innings this season. Randy also registered his 12th win of the season; in all of Cubs history only seven pitchers won more games in their rookie season. The 3.05 ERA also ranks sixth among all Cubs rookie pitchers who qualified for the league ERA title. (Note: Wells doesn't appear on those lists because before today's game he didn't have enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Now he does.)

Randy is never going to overpower anyone, although today he had the Diamondbacks flailing away at his pitches, which he mixed up well. In his 27 starts he went fewer than five innings only three times, and today was his ninth outing of seven innings or more. Earlier this year I compared him to former Cub righthander Kevin Tapani. He resembles Tapani in several ways -- stature, pitching motion, the age at which he first established himself in the major leagues. And Tapani was a good #3 or #4 starter for 13 years, and was a key contributor to three playoff teams.

If the Cubs get that out of Randy Wells before he leaves the game, we will all be very happy.

While Wells and Esmailin Caridad (a 1-2-3 eighth) and Carlos Marmol (a 1-2-3 ninth) were keeping the Diamondbacks off the bases, the Cubs were drawing walks and hitting the hapless Daniel Cabrera all over the yard. The biggest blows were a two-run triple from Reed Johnson -- this, a guy who suffered a serious foot injury two months ago -- and two hits and two RBI from Geovany Soto. With his two hits and two walks Geo got his OPS above .700 (to .710). It's a big dropoff from his .868 Rookie of the Year OPS from last year, but at least he appears to be improving in September after an awful August. Geo needs to dedicate himself to losing weight and getting in shape and reporting to Mesa in February ready to recover his production level of 2008.

I was glad that Lou gave Tyler Colvin a start in front of the home crowd; he had an RBI single, and while he's probably not in the mix for a job at Wrigley in 2010, he should be ready to produce in Triple-A next year and be ready to challenge for the major league roster in 2011.

It was also nice to see Marmol throw an efficient inning, looking like the Marmol of old, even though it wasn't a save situation. This should also give him good confidence going into next year. The three pitchers, throwing strikes (87 out of 130 total Cub pitches), allowed the game to end in two hours and eleven minutes. That was the fastest nine-inning game at Wrigley Field since Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster (then the closer) dispatched the Astros in 2:05 on June 11, 2007. Just in time, too -- about five minutes after the last out, a light rain began to fall.

Speaking of rain, here's a final word I heard today about Thursday's rainout and why MLB wanted so badly to have all games played this season. Up to Thursday, no MLB games had been cancelled this year and it seemed possible that every team would play the full 162 games. Instead, with the Cubs having one fewer game than everyone except the Pirates, it's possible that the Cubs could rank ahead of the Rays and/or Mariners, whose records as of today are similar to the Cubs. MLB simply wanted to avoid that "half-game scenario", but Thursday's weather prevented that. That's the reason they waited so long.

And tomorrow, we wrap things up on the Cubs for 2009, we hope, with a win to at least send us off with a good last memory.

More Hints Of 2010: Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Preview, Saturday 10/3, 12:05 CT

Al — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 15:00:32 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

It was that kind of day yesterday for Sam Fuld.

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Dave van Dyck writes in the Tribune that Aaron Miles is "confident" he can bounce back next year:

The only trouble is that Miles has been buried on the bench by manager Lou Piniella and booed by Wrigley Field fans when he has appeared.

"The fans can be won back pretty quickly," he said. "I've had a tough year. I definitely feel (management) gave me a good chance, but the injuries have gotten in the way. I've had a tough year personally off the field too (with a divorce)."

I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit. Injuries? Then stay on the DL until they're fixed. Off the field problems? Leave 'em there. I don't want to hear excuses. It's not Miles' fault that Jim Hendry gave him a ridiculous contract when no one else was bidding for his services. It's on Hendry to fix this problem, and I think the most likely solution is to fold him into whatever deal he makes for Milton Bradley (as I suggested yesterday, perhaps Miles and Bradley could be sent to the Giants for Aaron Rowand).

One player who also wants to come back is Bobby Scales, writes Gordon Wittenmyer:

Scales made an impact more as a pinch hitter, going 7-for-13 with two home runs and five RBI in that role. In 50 games, he is hitting .244 with three homers and 15 RBI, playing mostly in the outfield since his last call-up. "There's some satisfaction in what I've done, but I'm always harder on myself than anyone," he said. "The goal is to stay here and help this team. I want to get better because if you're not getting better, you're getting worse, and in this game, if you're getting worse, you're gone."

Scales will turn 32 tomorrow. He's been a nice feel-good story, but I think the Cubs need to do better if they are going to be a serious contender in 2010.

Meanwhile, according to Bruce Miles, "most" of the coaching staff should return next year, including Larry Rothschild. Larry's a punching bag at times when the pitching staff doesn't do well. This year, the pitching was in general pretty good, particularly the starters. My opinion: I don't think Larry has much impact. When the staff does poorly, I don't believe it's his fault; but when they do well, it's not because of him, either. One thing I do believe: Ryne Sandberg should be added to the major league coaching staff next year.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Randy Wells Cubs	vs.	Daniel Cabrera Diamondbacks

11-10	W-L	0-5
3.18	ERA	6.07
94	SO	22
45	BB	39
14	HR	4
vs. Ari	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Randy Wells	11-10	26	26	0	0	0	0	158.1	162	67	56	14	45	94	3.18	1.31

NOTE: Daniel Cabrera's stats below are with the Diamondbacks only. See the pitcher box above for his full-season stats.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Daniel Cabrera	0-0	5	0	0	0	0	0	6.0	7	5	5	0	4	6	7.50	1.83

Daniel Cabrera was released by the Nationals earlier this year, signed by Arizona to a minor league deal, and recalled after September 1. He was once a top prospect of the Orioles and you'll notice when you see him today that he's a big dude (listed at 6-7, 230). He has never faced the Cubs; the only Cub who could play today who has seen him for more than a couple of AB is Reed Johnson (3-for-16). No one seems to have taken a photo of Cabrera as a Diamondback, so you get the above scowling image of him in a Nationals cap.

Randy Wells needs to throw 3.2 innings today to get on the "qualified" list for the ERA leaders; of course, we'd like to see him throw more than that and do well, since his last start wasn't so good. This will be his first career appearance against the Diamondbacks.

Today's game is on WGN and FSN Arizona. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

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Please visit our SB Nation Diamondbacks site AZ Snakepit.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 1 pm and 2 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Some Thoughts For 2010: Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Preview, Friday 10/2, 1:20 CT

Al — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:30:15 -0000

The bleachers during Thursday night's rain delay, about 9:15 pm. (BCB photo by David Sameshima)

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We have, at times this season, debated whether the Cubs should have traded Mark DeRosa and whether he would have helped the club through its various injuries and lack of production. I don't want to rekindle anything... oh, what the heck. Yes, I do.

During last night's rain delay, the Tribune's Paul Sullivan asked various Cubs, including Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly, what their wish lists are for 2010. Though all of them made good points -- and I think Dempster's wish of upgrading the facilities will come true, though maybe not for another year -- Lilly's were telling:

Lilly's wish is for the Cubs to re-sign Reed Johnson, who becomes a free agent in November. But he also said it would be prudent to consider bringing back Mark DeRosa, who left a void in the clubhouse when he was traded to the Indians last winter.

"I love Mark as a player, a person, a clubhouse guy," Lilly said. "I could say he's probably the best teammate I've ever had. All around, he really cares a great deal about everybody, and that's the kind of person he is. I think he also leads by example -- the way he plays. He's a special individual."

"The best teammate I've ever had". This, from someone who played more than two years for the Yankees when they were playing in World Series every year and had guys like Paul O'Neill and Scott Brosius, reputed to be great team leaders, not to mention Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera, all class acts and fine players. Ted says DeRo was "the best teammate I've ever had".

Now. Mark DeRosa is going to be 35 years old in February and hasn't produced this year as he did in his two Cub seasons -- although, that is partly due to a wrist injury he suffered in his first week with the Cardinals, plus his career numbers at Busch Stadium (.182/.251/.315 in 200 career AB) are pretty bad; compare that to the .305/.394/.464 he posted in 528 lifetime AB at Wrigley Field, neither of which can be dismissed as "small sample size". The Cubs could do worse than signing DeRosa to play right field or second base or a combination thereof, even if they have to have him share time with other players. For the right price -- I would NOT overpay -- I would be delighted to have Mark DeRosa back in Cubs uniform #7 in 2010.

Let the flaming -- or cheerleading -- begin.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Tom Gorzelanny Cubs	vs.	Billy Buckner Diamondbacks

7-2	W-L	3-6
4.70	ERA	6.59
44	SO	59
16	BB	25
5	HR	12
vs. Ari	--	vs. Cubs

NOTE: Tom Gorzelanny's stats below are with the Cubs only. See the pitcher box above for his full-season stats.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Tom Gorzelanny	4-1	12	6	0	0	0	0	35.1	32	18	18	5	12	37	4.58	1.25

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Billy Buckner	3-6	15	12	0	0	0	0	71.0	88	54	52	12	25	59	6.59	1.59

The last time a player named Bill Buckner appeared at Wrigley Field was May 24, 1984, when the former Cubs first baseman pinch-hit (and popped out) in the first game of a doubleheader against the Braves, just before he was traded to the Red Sox. This Billy Buckner, no relation, has never started against the Cubs (he made one relief appearance against them on July 23, 2008 in Phoenix). He has actually been fairly decent since he returned to the Arizona rotation in September (3.86 ERA in five starts, although he has also posted a 1.35 WHIP).

Tom Gorzelanny is slowly putting together a good record that he can bring to next spring training with a real chance to make the 2010 rotation. He has made six starts for the Cubs, going at least five innings in five of them (and getting pounded by the Rockies in the other one). His combined numbers as a starter: 28.2 IP, 28 H, 13 ER, 9 BB, 33 K, 4 HR, 4.13 ERA, 1.31 WHIP. Not bad, and if you throw out the one horrendous start, the other five are decent-to-outstanding. He has made three career starts vs. Arizona (1-0, 3.15). Stephen Drew (3-for-10) and Justin Upton (3-for-6, a HR) have hit him well in small sample sizes.

Today's game is on WGN and FSN Arizona. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

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Please visit our SB Nation Diamondbacks site AZ Snakepit. Jim, the proprietor, is a good guy and runs a well-done site. And he's originally from England.

Overflow comment threads will post again today at 2:15 and 3:15 pm CDT, although last night's had a combined five comments.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

October Baseball Comes To Chicago: Cubs vs. Pirates Preview, Thursday 10/1, 7:05 CT

Al — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 22:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

Write your own caption. (No contest today, just for fun.)

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Not the kind of October baseball we wanted, of course, but here it is October and the Cubs are still playing baseball. As I said yesterday, enjoy it while it's here... because you know you'll miss it over the winter.

Bruce Miles has the story behind the "With Reed We Will Succeed" T-shirt that Ted Lilly wore during the post-game 1 press conference yesterday:

"The story behind the shirt is I was given that shirt from one of the flight attendants," Reed said. "I guess one of their family members...they live in the suburbs and have a Reed Johnson fan club or whatever. They gave me that shirt. I didn’t have enough guts to put it on myself or even give it to one of my family members. Ted wears anything, so I just gave it to Ted."

Johnson said he’d love to come back next year.

"Oh, yeah, for sure," he said. "It’s a great organization. It’s the best two years of my career (that) have been spent here. Hopefully, I continue to be successful here."

I'd like Reed back too -- his only trouble has been staying healthy, and the foot injury this year was unfortunate, since his back was giving him fewer problems this year than last. He sounds like he'd take a little less money to stay than to go to free agency. To coin a phrase, "GETITDONEJIM!!!!1!!!1"

Speaking of upcoming Cub free agents, Kevin Gregg says he wants to stay and close in 2010. Response from me: no thanks.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Jeff Samardzija Cubs	vs.	Paul Maholm Pirates

1-3	W-L	8-9
7.53	ERA	4.44
21	SO	119
15	BB	60
7	HR	14
vs. Pit	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jeff Samardzija	1-3	20	2	0	0	0	0	34.2	46	29	29	7	15	21	7.53	1.76

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Paul Maholm	8-9	31	31	0	0	0	0	194.2	221	102	96	14	60	119	4.44	1.44

The Cubs beat Paul Maholm pretty good at Wrigley Field on May 25. (Goofy-looking lineup that day, too.) Both So Taguchi (7-for-17) and Reed Johnson (5-for-9) have hit Maholm well in the past. Lifetime against the Cubs he has a 7.06 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in nine career starts spanning 51 innings, but somehow has managed to post a 4-1 won-lost record.

Jeff Samardzija has four career relief appearances vs. the Pirates without allowing a run; this will be his first start against them. Current Pirates have ten AB vs. Jeff (three hits). This is an important appearance for the Shark to set a good tone for his possible inclusion in the mix for the 2010 rotation (or bullpen).

Today's game is again cable-only; CSN Chicago. There is no Pittsburgh TV, so you'll see Len & Bob on EI. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Pirates site Bucs Dugout.

Overflow comment threads will post again today at 8:15 and 9:15 pm CDT, although last night's were pretty sparsely attended.

Discuss amongst yourselves.