SB Nation - Alex Rios

So Far We Are: Meet Your New Blue Jays, Brett Wallace

hugo — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 16:58:00 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

5 months ago: Team USA third baseman Brett Wallace snags a ball that bounced into the air hit by World Team's Jesus Montero during the first inning of the All-Star Futures baseball game at Busch Stadium on Sunday, July 12, 2009, in St. Louis. Wallace threw to second to force out Barbaro Canizares, but Montero was safe at first. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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This is the second part in a 3-part series that will take a bit of a closer look at the three players obtained by the Blue Jays in the Roy Halladay trades. In part I, we took a look at righty pitching sensation Kyle Drabek.

As you will remember, Brett Wallace (I keep wanting to call him David Wallace after the Dunder Mifflin CFO) wasn't actually traded for Roy Halladay. Rather, the Blue Jays received outfield prospect Michael Taylor in that trade, but had already reached a deal with the Oakland Athletics to flip Taylor for Wallace. What made that trade possible was that neither Taylor nor Wallace, who came over from St. Louis in the Matt Holliday trade, had been drafted by their respective teams and so neither GM had a real vested interest in their player - it's rare to see a GM trade one of his draftee top prospects for another untested propsect before either has ever seen the majors.

Unlike Taylor, who was a 5th round pick, Wallace came with a draft pedigree - he was drafted in the 1st round by the Cardinals in the 2008 amateur player draft out of Arizona State University. That wasn't the first time he was drafted, either - the Jays themselves took Wallace in the 42nd round of the 2005 draft, but the Sonoma, California native chose to become a Sun Devil instead. He met fellow Californian and new organizational teammate Aaron Hill at the all-star break last season when Hill started for the AL and Wallace played in the Futures Game.

In college, Wallace quickly established himself as one of the NCAA's best hitters - he won two triple crowns and was the Pac-10's player of the year twice. Like most college draftees, Wallace was assigned to short-season A ball, but played his way out of A entirely when he was moved to AA for the end of the season. Wallace started 2009 in double A and then went up to AAA, where he especially turned it on after his trade to Oakland's system, hitting .302/.365/.505 in just over 200 plate appearances. Folks that thought Taylor's numbers in the minors to be more impressive than Wallace's just weren't considering that Wallace was younger, played at a higher level, and put up those numbers in his first full season of professional ball (as opposed to Taylor's second full season), which is extremely impressive. Make no mistake, this kid can hit.

His defense, on the other hand, is another thing. While Wallace is a third-base prospect, and has earned praise for his good hands and arm, there has been significant doubt that Wallace can stay at the hot corner. It has been said he is a "good athlete stuck in a bad body" and most baseball people just don't think he has the range or quickness to stick at third. The Jays have already announced that they plan to use him at first base, even though no one is blocking him at third base in the minors and the Jays have Brian Dopirak, who played much of 2009 at AAA, and David Cooper, who played at AA, at first base (though Cooper's star has faded, it's too early to give up on him).

At the plate, Wallace, a left-handed hitter, is described as a "pure" hitter with a solid approach at the plate, reluctant to expand the strike zone on the pitcher's terms. As scouts have noted, Wallace has a very strong lower body he uses to generate power and is very good at staying on his back leg to generate power and lay off bad pitches. Hitters get in trouble when they get onto their front side too early, as we saw all too often with Alex Rios last season. With Wallace's lower body strength and ability to stay on his back side, I think substantial power will come, and his approach bodes well for him to consistently reach base as well. Although Wallace didn't display that patience in AAA last season, it is understandable as he was taking his first taste of AAA in his first full big league season. I'd expect walk rates over 10% this season in AAA.

As a hitter, Wallace has been described as almost ready for the big leagues. It will take some time for him to learn first base, I'm guessing, so that will keep him in the minors for a bit, but with Lyle Overbay perhaps on his way out, Wallace could be in the big leagues in 2009. He says he wasts to make it as hard as possible for the Jays to send him to AAA. It's hard not to be excited about the offensive upside someone like Wallace brings - particularly when combined with fellow young lefty mashers Travis Snider and Adam Lind. We can be patient with Wallace, but I'm not sure we will have to be patient for very long.

Please share your hopes for Wallace and your thoughts on the Taylor-for-Wallace trade in the comments.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:09:33 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

LaTroy Hawkins and Glenn Robinson faced each other in high school. This is the kind of thing that passes for news in December.

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Some things to read while trying not to dance.

LaTroy Hawkins was in Milwaukee yesterday for his physical, making his deal official (FanShot). As mentioned previously, he's due $3.5 million in 2010 and $4 million in 2011, plus $550k available if he maximizes his incentives. One thing I didn't know until reading it afterwards: Hawkins grew up in Gary, Indiana and played basketball against former Buck Glenn Robinson.

I've mentioned previously that the bullpen situation is starting to fill up, but realized yesterday that I've been leaving Carlos Villanueva out of all of my projections. As Adam McCalvy noted in his story on Hawkins, the bullpen now has Trevor Hoffman, Hawkins, Todd Coffey, Mitch Stetter, Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva and David Riske, and barring a trade or injury, it looks like Chris Smith, Chris Narveson, Chuck Lofgren and Zack Braddock, among others, are on the outside looking in.

While there may not be much competition for a spot in the bullpen, there will be an interesting race to see who opens the season as the backup catcher. View From Bernie's Chalet handicaps the candidates, and is hoping for George Kottoras to open the season in the majors, with Jonathan Lucroy in AAA and Angel Salome on the trading block. Two quick thoughts on that:

Kottoras is out of options, so unless one of the prospects blows him out of the water this spring, he'll likely make the team.
You can never have too many catchers, so don't be surprised if the Brewers hang onto both Lucroy and Salome and try to work out some kind of rotation in Nashville.

Speaking of competitions involving backup catchers, we need your vote to help select a backup catcher for the BCB All Decade Team. As of this writing, Mike Rivera leads Jason Kendall by 15 votes.

At Mike Cameron's press conference in Boston yesterday, we heard some insight for the first time into Ken Macha's feeling toward the running game last season. 2009 was the first time in Cameron's career he's had single-digit stolen bases, and he said he "ran into a little situation where I had to abide by the rules of the manager, even though I’ve been pretty successful, I mean, 80 percent of the time that I’ve ran." Macha has admitted he'll have to open up the running game a little more this season, but this is the first time I can recall hearing a player talk about restraints last season.

Every now and then the Mug provides me an "Ask and you shall receive" moment. Yesterday I asked about differences in attendance at Miller Park based on the starting pitcher, and Wisconsin Sports Tap did the research, discovering no correlation. Many, if not most, Brewer tickets are probably purchased too far in advance to predict starting pitching assignments, so that's likely what I should have expected.

In the minors: FanGraphs unveiled their Top Ten Brewer Prospects yesterday. Alcides Escobar sits atop the list, as he likely will in just about every set of rankings coming out this winter, but Brett Lawrie climbed in front of Mat Gamel for the #2 spot. We'll be doing our Community Prospect Rankings in January, and I'm curious to see where Lawrie will rank there.

Around baseball:

D-Backs: Signed pitcher Rodrigo Lopez to a minor league deal.
Dodgers: Signed infielder Jamey Carroll to a two year deal worth $3.85 million and signed reliever Luis Ayala to a minor league deal.
Orioles: Signed reliever Mike Gonzalez to a two year deal worth $12 million, and third baseman Garrett Atkins to a one year deal.
Rangers: Signed pitcher Geoff Geary and infielder Ray Olmedo to minor league deals.
Tigers: Re-signed infielder Ramon Santiago to a two year deal.

The Blue Jays, Phillies, Mariners and A's also finalized their four way deal involving Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. It's been a time for change in Toronto over the last few months: Jordan Bastian noted that the Rogers Centre features three-story images of Alex Rios, Scott Rolen, B.J. Ryan and Roy Halladay. All four will now need to be removed.

In the interest of keeping conversation going and providing fresh content on the site each day, I occasionally post things that wouldn't be front page-worthy during the season, but keep things lively in December. Occasionally when I do that, someone stops by the comments to make sure I know I'm wasting their time, or ask why we're voting for bench players on the All Decade Team. Yes, I know those posts aren't hard-hitting news, but they beat spending a day ranking and discussing your favorite Pixar movies, like Keith Law and Rob Neyer did yesterday.

Earlier this week he celebrated a birthday, and today former Brewer Matt Kinney is the subject of Lookout Landing's Faces series.

Happy birthday today to 1986 and 1989 Brewer Bryan Clutterbuck, who turns 50.

Drink up.

Kenny Always Gets His Man

larry — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:26:01 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Duck.

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I found myself with a little time to kill before taking off on another jet plane and, conveniently, the White Sox decide to make a move. So no complaining about a lack of analysis from the editors. hoodlight.

First the particulars: the White Sox receive Juan Pierre from the Dodgers, along with $10.5 million, and send John Ely and Jon Link back. The payroll hit for Pierre shakes out as $3 million in 2010 and $5 million in 2011.

What the White Sox are sending west isn't anything to be concerned about. John Ely, who spent all of last year at AA Birmingham, is a soft-tossing, finesse pitcher. But he's right-handed so guess how that usually works out. John Sickels ranked him as the 14th best prospect in the club's shallow system. And Phil Rogers loves him. I consider him irrelevant. Jon Link, who spent all of last season in AAA Charlotte, has, as I've mentioned before, a high K rate but also a high BB rate. Perhaps he'll figure it out but I'd essentially given up hope on that.

Now for what the White Sox get. First, they get someone to fill the high socks void recently vacated by D.J. Carrasco. They also get someone who looks like a Leadoff Hitter to fill the Leadoff Position. They also get someone who isn't very good at major league baseball. He shouldn't play CF anymore and, with Alex Rios in the fold, hopefully Ozzie won't get any ideas. He can still cover ground in LF and his arm that makes 12 year old girls laugh isn't as much of an issue there. He's probably a slightly above average defender if used properly. Unfortunately, he gives up any gain there on offense. He's projected for a wOBA of about .310 next season by Bill James, well below the league average benchmark of .330. That's almost 10 runs below average. Of course, one can point to his .338 last season and, except for 2008, recent numbers higher than .310 to argue that projection is a little low. On the other hand, he's 32 and certainly in his decline, a particularly dangerous place for a slap hitter who relies on speed, and his last five seasons look like this: .338, .308, .317, .319, and .309. Throw out that outlier 2009 and that .310 looks about right.

All that said, the overall price, both in terms of dollars and players, is low. Even if Pierre hits that low projection, he'll probably be worth the salary he's being paid (and whatever value you want to ascribe to the fringe prospects). And, while based on actual offensive acumen he should be about the second to last player to be considered for the Leadoff Position (thanks Omar!), his mere presence will at least prevent the usual hand-wringing over that perceived void. Of course, if the $8 million commitment prevents the acquisition of a player with some real offensive value and/or Ozzie decides to play Pierre in CF because "he real fast", this could turn out badly.

Rosterbation-Mania!

U-God — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 05:18:10 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Raise your hand if you want to play for the White Sox next year. Esteban, please put your hand down. Seriously though, Esteban, you aren't welcome. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

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Over the past couple days, and inspired by the infamous U.S.S. Mariner post and the on-going reader input over at Sox Machine, I've been putting together my off-season plan. I tried to keep it as realistic as possible (no video game trades), especially in terms of payroll. Feel encouraged to leave your own roster plans in the comments section. U-God's 2010 plan lies after the jump.

Free Agent Acquistions:

DH- Nick Johnson, 1 year/5.5 mil

I love Jim Thome and always will. He is my back-up plan. With that being said, I would be thrilled if KW went out and got Nick Johnson. The 31 year old lefty has a career .849 OPS fueled largely by his .402 career OBP. Johnson also allows us to rotate Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin in at DH as well. He does come with injury-risks, but using him mainly as a DH in combination with one of the premier medical staffs in baseball should counteract that. The injury risk combined with the down market should allow the Sox to grab him at a reasonable price for a year.

RF- Marlon Byrd, 1 year/4.5 mil

Byrd would be a very refreshing change of pace out in rightfield. He has posted an OPS above .800 each year since joining the American League and has been an above-average defender in right as well. His career high 20 homers last year will guarentee him a raise, though probably a modest one. Byrd also provides a nice stop-gap for our outfield prospects.

C- Brian Schneider, 1 year/1.5 mil

Schneider's days as a starter are over. He's a lefty-catcher who has had good success stopping opponent's run games (38 CS%). Being a backup drops his price tag and lowers his risk of getting hurt again.

1B/OF- Mark Kotsay, 1 year/1.5 mil

Bring him back. He was good after we traded for him and gives Ozzie more flexibility with his bench and lineups.

Contract Extension:

Offer John Danks the Jon Lester deal (5 years/30 mil). It's a back-loaded contract that buys out John's arbitration years and allows him to hit free agency at age 31. It may take more money to lock him up, but for simplicity's sake, I'm just going to use the Lester deal.

Batting Order:

DH- Nick Johnson, 3B- Gordon Beckham, LF- Carlos Quentin, 1B- Paul Konerko, C- A.J. Pierzynski, CF- Alex Rios, RF- Marlon Byrd, SS- Alexei Ramirez, 2B- Chris Getz.

That OBP in front of Beckham gives me dirty thoughts.

Bench:

C- Brian Schneider, 1B/OF- Mark Kotsay, UTIL- Jayson Nix, OF- Alejandro De Aza

Nix gives pop off the bench and De Aza gives Ozzie a speedy pinch-runner for late in the game.

Starting Rotation:

Jake Peavy-RHP, Mark Buehrle-LHP, Gavin Floyd-RHP, John Danks-LHP, Freddy Garcia-RHP

I like the idea of having Peavy and Garcia pitch back to back.

Bullpen:

Bobby Jenks-CL, Matt Thornton-LHP, Scott Linebrink-RHP, DJ Carrasco-RHP, Tony Peña-RHP, Jhonny Nuñez-RHP, Randy Williams-LHP

I wanted to trade Jenks, but his value is too low right now and I don't want a repeat of the Nick Swisher trade.

Other Costs:

$1 mil buy-out for Jermaine Dye

$.35 mil for Mike MacDougal, damn him

Team Payroll:

$96.65 mil, only .55 higher than last season's opening salary. All figures (except my FAs and arbitration guesstimates) taken from Cot's Baseball Contracts.

Don't Worry About Alex Rios, Greg Walker is on the case

The Cheat — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 04:53:52 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Alex Rios is pulling off the ball just a tad...

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Alex Rios has $58.7M left on his contract, is coming off a season in which he hit .199/.229/.301 after joining the White Sox, and has, at times, appeared completely lost at the plate. But don't worry, Greg Walker is planning a special trip to Puerto Rico help turn Rios around.

As the Sox slipped further out of the race in September, Rios channeled '06 Brian Anderson and I plotted a post about the Sox most important off-season acquisition; a new hitting coach. You know, one that actually does something, makes obvious adjustments to struggling players instead of letting them 'hit their way out of it' and preaching on about the magical powers of the obverse side of a baseball card. My reasoning was simple; the Sox had roughly 60M reasons to find a hitting coach who would actually do something besides spout cliched baseball platitudes.

But I never expected Walker to be back, certainly not on a two-year deal. I severely underestimated the nepotism factor. You could say it's sticking with the Devil you know vs. the Devil you don't. Only now the Devil's got a plan, traveling camp Walker...

"Quentin and Rios are the two guys that we wanted to work with specifically. They are young middle of the order hitters and should be with us a long time. Q is a guy that watches a lot of video and is a bright guy. We're going to look at the good, bad and the ugly the last few years and come up with a gameplan. No swinging or anything like that. Just some time spent with him, mostly on the computer, come up with a plan.

"We want [Rios] to work on some things in the offseason with no pressure. I wanted to firm up that we're all on the same page."

So while I have to applaud Walker for finally taking a more visibly proactive approach, that little voice in the back of my mind dutifully reminds me; it's Greg Freakin' Walker. He's about as effective as ExtenZe.

2010 Bill James Projections: White Sox Hitters

The Cheat — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 19:20:08 -0000

The good people at ACTA Sports provided me a sneak preview at the 2010 Bill James projections, which will be made available the public the the 2010 Bill James Handbook (available next week).

James tends to have the most optimistic projections of any of the major forecasters, specifically for young players (read: unestablished players, i.e. Flowers)

2010 Bill James' Projections

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
Gordon Beckham	155	567	93	166	44	1	21	96	59	89	10	5	.288	.360	.477
Jermaine Dye	152	571	85	149	30	1	30	92	57	123	2	1	.261	.333	.480
Tyler Flowers	67	243	40	75	17	1	12	32	32	85	2	1	.275	.353	.476
Chris Getz	99	364	49	98	16	2	4	33	36	55	20	6	.269	.340	.357
Paul Konerko	148	539	74	143	27	0	29	90	67	96	1	0	.265	.354	.477
Jayson Nix	90	247	33	60	13	0	8	27	21	49	9	3	.243	.307	.393
A.J. Pierzynski	140	527	61	149	28	1	14	62	24	64	1	1	.283	.323	.419
Scott Podsednik	110	324	45	89	17	2	3	26	29	50	17	8	.275	.340	.367
Carlos Quentin	146	542	92	147	36	2	30	97	59	77	5	2	.271	.356	.511
Alexei Ramirez	147	527	75	150	19	2	18	78	42	58	12	6	.285	.339	.431
Alex Rios	149	564	79	157	36	5	16	73	41	102	21	7	.278	.332	.445
Jim Thome	132	441	73	108	20	0	29	84	88	146	0	0	.245	.374	.488

The Sox will be in very good shape next year if they get that type of production from Quentin and Rios.

The Season That Was: Alex Rios

Tom Dakers — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 18:09:17 -0000

More photos » by Frank Gunn - AP

He has a pretty swing, when it is working. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Frank Gunn)

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When Alex Rios came up to the Jays I thought he was ok but didn't have enough power for a corner outfield spot. He seemed to be a good enough player but he didn't do anything well enough to make you think he should be an everyday player. He had speed but didn't get on base enough to be a leadoff hitter. Then in his 3rd year he hit 15 homers in the first half of the season but a staff inflection ruined the second half of the season. In 2007 he had another great first half and put on a show in the All-Star Home Run Derby. It looked like he was becoming a star.

In 2008 his streak of improving his home run numbers each year ended. He had a good enough season but without the power he really wasn't a star corner outfielder. The question was was it a one year thing or was the power gone? Before this season for the Community Project we guessed he would have a .345 OBP and a .495 SLG in 675 at bats, which with his usual good defense would add up to a 4.6 WAR. For the Jays he hit:

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Alex Rios	108	436	52	115	25	2	14	62	31	78	19	3	.264	.317	.427

So we missed by a bit, his on base was 28 points lower than we guessed and he slugged 78 points worse. He wasn't having a good year but it wasn't going as badly as people were making it out to be. As Jesse pointed out Alex was being tarred with the same brush as Vernon Wells. For the Jays he had a WAR of 1.1, not great but not awful.

Then the White Sox claimed on waivers and the Jays let him go. For the White Sox he was dreadful:

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Alex Rios	41	146	11	29	6	0	3	9	6	29	5	2	.199	.229	.301

Fangraphs had him at a 0 WAR at the end of the season.

Alex hit lefties (.261/.301/.422) a little better than right-handers (.242/.294/.385).

His big split was between home and road games. At home he hit .283/.344/.504, pretty decent. On the road he hit .216/.301/.422, darn awful. I don't know why a player would have such a big home/road split. Vernon Wells was basically the opposite, which is more understandable. Perhaps the fan reaction to him made it harder for him to concentrate at home or perhaps the there was something in the hitting background that bothered him. But a huge edge hitting at home is harder to explain. A small edge you could understand, a huge edge? I don't know.

The whole edge wasn't Rogers Center, he hit better at Comiskey for the White Sox (.247/.291/.438), than he did on the road for them.

The hit .257/.298/.395 with RISP so pretty much the same as he hit overall.

His longest hitting streak of the season was 9 game back at the end of April, start of May.

By month Alex hit:

April .248/.304/.366

May .302/.359/.509

June .232/.290/.374

July .263/.317/.411

August .210/.221/.383

Sept/Oct .211/.253/.300

So he one good month.

His favorite team to play? He had 3 really good games against the Marlins (.583/.583/.1.167). Among AL teams he hit the Tigers quite well (.355/.444/.548). His least favorite? He had 3 lousy games against the Reds (.083/.083/.083). He also didn't hit the Angels (.065/.147/.161).

Defensively he slumped as well. Fangraphs had him at a -2.5 UZR/150 in RF and a -4.9 UZR/150 in CF where he played for the White Sox. He made 5 errors for a .985 fielding percentage in the outfield. His defense has always been great in the past so I'd expect it to improve.

What he's going to do in the future? I don't know. I'm kind of glad I don't have to try to guess what he's going to do anymore. He's got all the talent in the world. It's just whether he decides to use it or not. Or maybe not, maybe he doesn't have the talent we thought he did. He could very well turn out to be very worth his contract, which has $58.7 million on it over the next 5 years plus a $13.5 million club option for 2015. Or the White Sox might end up buying out several years of his contract. I do have a feeling that he is gong to test Ozzie Guillen's patience next year. And that might be great fun to watch......from a distance.

Midday quick hits: Cubs, Derek Lowe, Giants, Twins vs. Tigers

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 17:09:59 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

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Here are some links making the headlines on this Tuesday afternoon:

The Cubs have some issues they plan to address early this offseason, which start with moving Milton Bradley. The Cubs may look to swap bad contracts, but could look into trading for Jeremy Hermida, who the Marlins plan to shop. After that, the Cubs may dangle Jake Fox on the open market. Fox dominated Triple-A hitters and put up impressive numbers with the big league club. He could draw interest from an AL team looking for a cheap DH option. The Mariners come to mind, and the Orioles could emerge if they fail to find a replacement at third base.
Speaking of the Orioles hot corner, MASN suggests that the Orioles could make a strong push to land infielder Chone Figgins. Figgins would give the Orioles even more speed at the top of the order, while also giving them a legitimate run producer. They would have to overpay to lure him to Baltimore, but he could have an impact on Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and Matt Wieters.
The Braves plan to shop Derek Lowe this offseason, who regressed this season in his first year with the Braves. His sinker wasn't as deceptive, which hurt the effectiveness of his other pitches. He has three years and 45 million dollars left on his contract, so finding a taker may be difficult. The Braves could look to swap bad contracts, contact the Tigers about Magglio Ordonez or even the White Sox about Alex Rios.
The Giants would not go as far to rule out trading Matt Cain, but at the moment appear reluctant to make a move. The Brewers' Prince Fielder has been talked about before, and it is possible they could explore that avenue again this offseason.
Who is going to win the Twins vs. Tigers one game playoff tonight? Focus in Detroit has been shifted to Miguel Cabrera's off the field incidents, which could have an impact on tonight's game. Playing at home, riding a lot of momentum, and following an impressive Vikings win on national television, it seems like the Twins have the advantage. What do you think?

Miguel Olivo is Irish, The White Sox Are Lifeless

The Cheat — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 03:02:28 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Look at this pale redheaded Master Flamer

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We can't even joke about the White Sox playoff hopes anymore. Ozzie has begun filling out lineup cards featuring a bench (instead of an outfield) of Jermaine Dye, Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin. Hawk spent the evening acting as if this game meant the Sox season. To which the Sox responded with a 3-hit barrage, including 1 that left the infield, extending their scoreless inning streak to 18.

The season is officially over; Luke Hochevar serving as coroner, Miguel Olivo as undertaker.

Next year starts tomorrow. Jake Peavy arrived just in time.

News Roundup: Nyjer Morgan's Value

Charlie — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 18:48:24 -0000

Were we wrong about Nyjer Morgan?

Pat has a good article about Nyjer Morgan's value. UZR is among the best available defensive statistics, so it's easy to be cowed by Morgan's UZR into thinking that Morgan is an otherworldly defender rather than just a very good one, but the thing is that Morgan's UZR is so ridiculous that it's almost impossible he'll sustain it. In fact, since 2005 the only outfielders with a UZR/150 near Morgan's 2009 mark of 28.1 are Andruw Jones in 2005 and Alex Rios, Jayson Werth and Franklin Gutierrez in 2008. Jones was probably the best defensive outfielder of our era, and Morgan doesn't belong in that category yet. Rios and Werth ostensibly took enormous steps backward in 2009 and were average defensive outfielders, at least by UZR/150.

Gutierrez is probably the most telling example. He's widely regarded as a great defensive outfielder. He posted a UZR/150 of 26.9 in 2008, and has posted a 17.6 in 2009. 17.6 runs above average is still great, but I'd think expectations for Morgan next year--assuming he's healthy--should start around there, or maybe a little below. Morgan made huge steps forward this season and he deserves credit for that, but he's not as good as his UZR makes him look.

In addition, as Pat notes, he's probably going to run into what we might call the "Bourn Fluctuation," the script of which was, incidentally, rejected by Universal. Players like Michael Bourn, Willy Taveras and Morgan depend on their batting averages as the basis of their offensive games, and batting averages fluctuate a lot from year to year, so Morgan is, in my opinion, just as likely to have a complete stinker of a season next year as he is to have a good one. Morgan has done a lot this year to change my opinion of him, but I'd still rather have Lastings Milledge.

Ten greatest moments in recent Pirate history

The Hardball Times lists the greatest moments in the Pirates' 17-year losing streak.

Wilbur Miller's Pirate Player Profiles

WTM's excellent site is updated for most of the low minors.