SB Nation - Vernon Wells

Alex Anthopoulos: 'Vernon Wells Will Stay in Center'

Tom Dakers — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 02:28:14 -0000

Been a lousy day here, woke up with a headache, I seem to have developed a sensitivity to weather changes or I guess pressure changes would be more accurate. So after a morning of doing only what was absolutely necessary, I spent the rest of the day in bed in a dark room. It's the first time today I've turned the computer on. I figured with my luck the Jays would have done something big and I'd have missed it. But nope, not much of note today.

Closest to news is a piece Jordan Bastian wrote telling us that Alex Anthopoulos has said that they have not considered moving Vernon Wells out of center field. Now I'm of two minds on this. In reality, what is he going to say? "Yeah, Vernon's crap in center field, we've got to find someone better'. He can't do that. It doesn't do a team any good to run down one of their players in the press. Even if you are trying to replace him, it doesn't help to tell him he is terrible. You are far better off to say he's great and hope that the player buys into it. And, I felt, Vernon's defense improved as the season went on.

But behind the scenes, I gotta figure the Jays are looking to find someone that could play center so they could move Vernon over to right. For one, there is less running in RF and with the hamstring troubles Vernon's had over the last couple of years, less running would be a good thing. Add in that it is possible that Lind could be in left and Snider could be in right, Vernon will have to do a ton of running to cover for both of them. Keeping Vernon healthy would also help his offense.

Part two is that you have signed two defense only shortstops, on the theory that your young pitching staff needs the confidence that a good defense gives. If you believe strong defense from short is important, why wouldn't you believe strong defense in the outfield is important to those young pitchers too. Good range in the outfield can turn a double or a triple into an out. You don't think that would help out our young starts.

While I understand that Anthopoulos has to say what he said, I really don't believe him. I think that if the Yankees give us Austin Jackson, in a package, for Roy Halladay we'll see Vernon in right field. And it would be the right move.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

gondeee — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 17:34:49 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Mike Gonzalez may be harder to re-sign now that Scott Boras is his agent.

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Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending November 22nd:

In the Press...

Tommy Hanson finished a disappointing third in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting.
Pitcher Buddy Carlyle signed with the Nippon Ham Fighters to play in Japan next year.
Mike Gonzalez changed agents to Scott Boras.
We learned through a couple of different sources that the Braves are indeed trying to move Derek Lowe, but are having difficulty doing so.
The Braves added five pitchers to their 40-man roster, protecting them from the Rule 5 draft next month.
The Royals signed former Braves pitcher Jorge Campillo.

At Talking Chop...

I took a look at the choice the Braves made with Andruw Jones and the choice the Blue Jays made with Vernon Wells.
We were the first to report on the Braves minor league free agents.
We reviewed the 2009 seasons of relievers Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, and the rest of the Braves relievers.
We took a look at some of the top free agents and how they affect the Braves.
Matt and CB reviewed the Braves top-10 minor league relievers here and here.
The bloggers at TC did a round table on the relievers in the Braves system.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

Dave_D shared some professional looking photos of some Gwinnett Braves players.
Mgomez4closer wants us to take a look at some minor league free agents.
'hawkchop is concerned about relying too heavily on an ETA for Freddie Freeman.
alligatorimpersonator wants the Braves to bring back Andruw Jones.
Dutch Braves Fan thinks we should re-sign Adam LaRoche.
Doghnut shares a link with us to a good explanation of BABIP.

The Case of Jones v. Wells

gondeee — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:52:16 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Andruw never misses a meal.

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At the end of the 2006 season, Andruw Jones had just completed his second consecutive 40+ homerun 125+ RBI season at only 29-years of age, and he looked like he might have finally become the powerful force in the middle of the Braves order... but would he remain there for the rest of his career? He was likely to demand a huge contract of many years with many zeros behind some pretty big numbers when he became a free agent a year later.

At the end of the 2006 season, Vernon Wells had just posted another 30 homer 100+ RBI season, and at 27-years of age he looked like the next coming of the great outfielders of our era. He was a year away from free agency, and like Jones, was also sure to demand a huge contract of many years with many zeros behind some pretty big numbers.

This is where two roads diverged in a wood, and each team took a different path. The Braves chose to ride out the rest of Andruw's contract, and seeing his performance decline, opted to let him walk away via free agency. The Blue Jays chose to sign their young star to a huge ball-busting contract of 7-years and $126 million. A contract that was so ridiculously back-loaded that the Jays are still on the hook for $105 million over the next 5 years.

Sometimes its the moves that a team doesn't make which determines their fate for years to come. Had the Braves signed Jones to a similar contract, we'd be talking about who has baseball's worse contract, Atlanta or Toronto. As it is, the winner is clearly Toronto and the money yet owed to the pedestrian Vernon Wells.

MLBTR has a great look back at the Wells contract and what the baseball pundits said about that contract at the time. That piece got me thinking about the choice we made versus the choice that Toronto made. This is why we very rarely see the Braves commit so many years and so much money to any one player.

That also got me thinking about this article by Ken Rosenthal, in which he thinks the Tigers should trade Miguel Cabrera. Miggy has an equally monstrous amount of money left on his deal, and if it weren't for that I would say let's make a play for him. But I just can't see the Braves ponying up $20 million a year for a guy (not after they got burned by the Mike Hampton trade). If the price were right though, say Vazquez, Freeman, and another prospect (not named Heyward), and the Tigers could pick up some of the tab, then I'd have to seriously think the Braves would make a run at Cabrera, assuming of course that he's available. Even with the monster contract. Okay, now I'm rosterbating, and drooling a bit.

Signing Most-Valuable Players

DanUpBaby — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:00:36 -0000

You shoulda come to the first party—we didn't get home 'til around four in the morning. I was blind for three days...

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There's no new news, which means it's time we go over some old news: the decision to sign Ryan Franklin to a multi-year extension stipulating that he was not allowed to record another out in 2009. That particular clause was the main problem with the Franklin deal in particular, but since we didn't know about that at the time I think it's the principle of the thing that's wedged so tightly inside the Cardinals fanbase's collective craw. This team's management does so many things correctly; it's identified free talent like Ryan Ludwick, it's signed Adam Wainwright to a long-term deal at actual wainwright rates, and its drafts have improved tremendously since the seeds of what's become the new regime were first planted.

But Ryan Franklin was the second time in as many years that the Cardinals broke, to their own detriment, what was originally a Branch Rickey tenet and has since become a Sabermetrics 101 truism: Don't sign a player at the top of his value! This shouldn't be a difficult thing to grasp because it's so categorically true as to be basically meaningless; if you sign a guy at the very peak of his value, things can only go downhill from there.

I've thought about these contracts assuming, above all else, that John Mozeliak is a rational, above-average general manager; most of them are at this point, so it might be worthwhile to consider who else has made these two moves in recent years, and where it's left them.

THE LOHSE DEAL: Three long-term contracts obviously weirder than Kyle Lohse's

3. Juan Pierre. Five years, $44 million, 11/2006. What a terrible year for contracts this was—at the same time all of this was happening the Cardinals were getting ready to tear up Chris Carpenter's last two years, worth $15 million, so that they could hand him three more at an annual value of $15 million. Pierre is probably the nearest analogue to Kyle Lohse of the three I've got here; he's an intermittently useful regular who is being passed off, as salaries go, as the second banana on a pretty good team, not the guy who goes to the bench when somebody better shows up.

But more importantly, when the Dodgers pounced on Juan Pierre here—before the winter meetings, even—they seemed to be bidding against themselves. Pierre had just been traded from the Marlins for what at the time was a platter of second tier pitching prospects, and his year in Chicago hadn't exactly brought him back to the front of the national conscience. Who else was ready to offer Juan Pierre $44 million? Or Kyle Lohse $41?

2. Gary Matthews, Jr. Five years, $50 million, 11/2006. Stop me if you've heard this one before, maybe three times before: a player who has been useful in his own way for some time has a brilliant season that gets a lot of attention, not all of it for his tangible value. In the offseason he's signed to a contract that seems out of touch both with his apparent market value and the likely bounds of his performance, but the team in question is convinced that, despite being in his thirties, this player has found a new level of performance. He has not.

What makes the Sarge Jr. contract crazier than the Kyle Lohse deal, besides the additional year, is that the real Gary Matthews Jr. was a fourth outfielder with an inconsistent bat and a flashy glove. Since the Angels signed him, that's exactly what he's been. When it comes to inexplicable career year contracts, we're all Gary Matthews, Jr., Jr. Except for this man:

1. Vernon Wells. 114 years, $573 billion, 12/2006. Recently we were talking about how great it is to be able to lock up your own homegrown talent—how that's one of the keys to the Yankees' success, and, in the Blue Jays' case, one of the keys to competing with the Yankees. After looking at the Vernon Wells contract to this point, one might be tempted to never, ever sign another homegrown player again.

Vernon Wells was a trap; that's all there is to it. He looks like a homegrown franchise player; he plays center field, and in his second full season in the league he had an enormous season, hitting .317/.359/.550 and doing everything well. In his ill-fated contract year, he nearly reprised that season, hitting .303/.357/.542. But between those lines, and even between the lines' lines, there are more warning signals than you'll find on a pack of Canadian cigarettes. Between 2003 and 2006 are two extremely average lines; even in 2003 and 2006 there's a walk rate that keeps him from being an elite hitter. The Blue Jays were signing a player that they'd gotten for two non-contiguous years out of four to a deal that might even have been rich for that hypothetical guy.

They couldn't have known that his offense and defense would both take a complete nosedive by 2009, making him one of the worst players in baseball just in time for his contract to get to these numbers:

2010—$12.5 million
2011—$23 million

If I stopped here it would be a bad deal. But I've got more, one entirely separate bad deal—

2012—$21 million
2013—$21 million

That's like signing Vernon Wells to a bad contract—five years, $63 million—and then signing him again, at the conclusion of the contract, to Manny Ramirez's deal. (You know? It really is...)

THE FRANKLIN DEAL: Three mid-contract renegotiations less necessary than Ryan Franklin's

3. Vernon Wells. Why on earth did they renegotiate after his career year when they had one more on which to base things? Were they concerned that the Vernon Wells would take it as a serious personal affront?

2. Travis Hafner. You've got a slugger who has just turned 30 and who, while brilliant, has serious old player skills. He's gotten off to a slow start this season, but it's alright—you've got him signed through the end of the next year on a deal that's beneficial for all parties concerned. Do you A) wait out his slump, or B) sign him to a four year, $57 million contract that wipes out your attractive year and a half as a show of good will?

1. Chris Carpenter. It hurts, it really does. But at least we don't have to blame this one on John Mozeliak. I'm aware that this is easier for us to do, as armchair GMs, than it is for the actual executives, who are dealing with actual human beings they will have to see on a semi-regular basis. And it's not just the player—fans can be pretty quick to accuse teams of not opening up DeWallet, and the Vernon Wells deal was apparently engineered, to some degree, by the Blue Jays' owner.

But in general, contracts like Lohse's and Franklin's—on a smaller scale, luckily—illustrate how risky a business it is to use contracts to send messages to players, fans, or owners. A pat on the back might have done more good for Ryan Franklin than an extra $4 million on his head.

Offseason Day 1 Quick Hits

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:06:44 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

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Let's take a look at some of the headlines making their way around the wire on this Thursday morning:

It appears as if the Nationals will remove the interim tag on manager Jim Riggleman and name him their permanent manager. The Nationals did contact Don Mattingly about an interview, but he respectively declined. Riggleman is very experienced and did get more than expected from the Nationals after taking over, going 33-42 to close out the season.
The Kansas City Star is reporting that the Royals likely will decline Coco Crisp's option, but have interest in negotiating a low-base salary for the 2010 season. Crisp, who has surgery on both shoulders this past season, is no guarantee to come back as strong as he was in previous years.
Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch is reporting that the Cardinals and Scott Boras have discussed a the framework of a deal, reportedly in the neighborhood of 6 years, worth 96 million dollars. Seems like the first offer of many in what is expected to be a very long negotiating process. Boras has not been afraid to compare his client to Mark Teixeira, who signed an 8 year, 180 million dollar deal a year ago. I think more reasonable contracts to compare Holliday to are Vernon Wells' (7 year, 126) or Alfonso Soriano's (8 year, 134).
With Tim Wakefield's 4 million dollar option and Victor Martinez's 7 million dollar option, the Red Sox have to decided what to do with shortstop Alex Gonzalez's 6 million dollar option. Gonzalez hit .284 after joining the Red Sox, and was pretty sound defensively. The Red Sox could decline the option and hope to sign him at a reduced rate, similar to what the Giants did with Freddy Sanchez. They could always look to the Brewers and shortstop J.J. Hardy, who is also expected to draw interest from the Twins.

Playing Hurt

Tom Dakers — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:14:21 -0000

Mike Wilner says a lot of things I agree with in his post yesterday talking about Vernon Wells and Edwin Encarnacion's wrist surgeries. In two of the last three years Vernon has had terrible seasons and seemingly in both he has tried to play through injuries. Now to his credit, neither year has he tried to use the injury as an excuse. In 2007 he hurt his shoulder and he never said anything about it, publicly, though the team knew and shut him down in September. This year we never knew anything about the wrist and wouldn't have known except the Jays announced he was having surgery. He had a cortisone shot in spring training and was taking anti-inflammatories during the season.

Now we tend to admire players for playing hurt. TV color commentators will give you 10 minutes on how 'back in their day' you played hurt, they didn't have Tommy John surgery. 'Why Mickey Mantle hit 500+ home runs on one good leg.' And I do admire guys that try to tough it out through an injury. Maybe it's the hockey background we have, growing up on stories of players getting stitched up in the trainer's room and coming back to play next period. "Don Cherry says get up."

But baseball, especially batting, is such a split second thing that it doesn't always work to play hurt. But like Wilner says:

It’s very difficult to blame a player for not wanting to come out of the line-up if he’s physically able to play (never mind play well). It’s exceedingly rare to find a player who will step back and say "Not only am I not helping, but I’m hurting the team and embarrassing myself in the process. I have to ask out." Don’t blame Wells for wanting his name written into the line-up everyday.

So who to blame?

At some point, Cito Gaston (and John Gibbons before him) has to be the grown-up, as it were, and tell Wells that he’s doing more harm than good trying to play in his condition and sit him down - or at least drop him to a far lower-leverage spot in the batting order until he gets healthy.

Is is an amazing thing that with a bad wrist Vernon played 158 games in CF. Not many health guys play that much. Only 8 players in the AL played more games last year. And, in case you didn't notice, Vernon had a terrible season. Now part of why he played so much is likely because Cito really didn't have a reasonable alternative to him on the bench after Rios was let go, but you would think that would be a 30 second conversation with the GM. "Hey JP, Vernon's wrist is bad and he's not hitting at all, I think a few days off would do him some good. Think you could find me a CFer that would take his place and not embarrass us too badly." JP would look into his memory for guys that played a pretty decent CF back in the 90's and, voila, Brad Wilkerson would be back on the team quicker than you could curse the baseball gods for saddling you with this team to cheer for.

A good part of why he played so much, despite playing so poorly was the lack of a someone else that could do the job but then a well put together team would have useful bench players. We, on the other hand, had Kevin Millar and Johnny Mac, nice enough people but not guys you would want to see in CF. So I'm hoping that next season, when Alex Anthopoulos puts together his roster, there is a fourth outfield that can actually play all 3 outfield spots.

I hope the surgery goes well and that Vernon comes into next year pain free and hitting great.

Morning Prowl: 40-Man Roster Decisions, Placido Polanco's Market Value, and Van Slyke's Replacement

Ian Casselberry — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 15:50:11 -0000

At The Detroit Tigers Weblog, Bill Ferris looks at the team's 40-man roster, which currently has 44 players on it (due to some being protected on the disabled list). So the Tigers have some decisions to make, especially as some minor leaguers will need to be protected. Bill speculates who the first cuts will likely be.

The San Francisco Giants re-signing second baseman Freddy Sanchez last week seemed like a harmless enough transaction. But Tiger Geist immediately pounced on how that could affect the Tigers. Will Sanchez's deal determine Placido Polanco's price on the free agent market? Could Polanco be worth more?

Lynn Henning talked to Jim Leyland about retaining Lloyd McClendon as hitting coach. Leyland called it "a legitimate question" but doesn't think McClendon is the reason for the Tigers' offensive struggles this season.

Tigers Tracks responds to Steve Kornacki's report that the Tigers have three candidates to take over Andy Van Slyke's vacancy on the coaching staff. The three finalists are minor league coordinators Gene Roof and Mike Rojas, and Double-A Erie manager Tom Brookens.

Jason Beck has re-opened his inbox (mailbag) for the offseason and addresses two key questions on fans' minds: Will the team pursue a veteran closer in free agency and could Brent Dlugach be a suitable replacement for Adam Everett at shortstop?

Aaron Gleeman lists five second basemen the Minnesota Twins should look at signing for next season. Guess who the top choice is.

If you've often thought that Leyland must issue more intentional walks than any other manager, you're right. In each of the past two seasons, Leyland called for the most intentional walks in the majors, according to John Dewan.

More from Dewan: He's compiled his Fielding Bible Awards for 2009. Unfortunately, no Tiger made the cut. You can read an explanation of what determines the awards at the Fielding Bible website.

On ESPN.com's Arizona Fall League blog, Jason Grey writes about former Tiger Andrew Miller's efforts to revamp his delivery. The big change is to try and stop throwing across his body, which is what the Marlins believe affected his control.

In light of the weekend's Milton Bradley-for-Vernon Wells trade rumors (that have since been shot down), Buster Olney lists 10 bad contracts teams are carrying that could be a match for Bradley. One of them is a Detroit Tigers pitcher.

(And since the article is ESPN Insider content, I'll say that the player in question wasn't on the Tigers' active roster at the end of the season.)

Speaking of Olney, Mack Avenue Tigers responds to his weekend post that discussed some players who might not be offered contracts by their current teams (or non-tendered, since they're under club control). One of the guys Olney mentions, which could interest Tigers fans greatly, is Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy.

I'm guessing that not too many Tigers fans would be excited about Jarrod Washburn returning to Detroit next season. It appears that's not going to be an issue, however, as Washburn sounds like he wants to go back to Seattle. (That sounded like a strong possibility back in July, when the Tigers acquired him.)

Vernon Wells to have Wrist Surgery

Tom Dakers — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 22:47:27 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - ASSOCIATED PRESS

Vernon is having surgery on the wrist of his glove hand. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

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Vernon Wells is going to have surgery to repair cartilage in his left wrist, the wrist he broke back in May of 2008. Vernon never mentioned wrist pain to alibi his performance this season but I can't imagine it helped. Of course, since most of Vernon's batting troubles came off left handed pitching, I'm not sure why the wrist would cause trouble against lefties and not righties. Vernon played in 158 games this season, maybe a few days off to rest the wrist might not have been a bad idea.

Edwin Encarnacion also is having wrist surgery to repair his left wrist, get a 'bone spur' shaved. Sounds fun doesn't it? Edwin spent time on the DL in May because of the wrist and his wrist was blamed for his poor offensive numbers though he picked it up at the end of the season.

Both players are expected to be ready for spring training.

Milton Bradley for Vernon Wells?

Tom Dakers — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 17:25:26 -0000

Update: Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune wrote:

A Cubs source quickly responded to the report by saying the rumor has "no legs at all," adding the team has not discussed the possibility of bringing Wells to the North Side.

So I guess it depends on whether you believe Sullivan's unnamed source or Elliot's unnamed source. I'll believe the first one to name their source.

In this morning's Toronto Sun, Bob Elliot reports that the Cubs and Blue Jays are talking about trading Vernon Wells for Milton Bradley. A trade of bad contracts. The Cubs pretty much have to move Bradley told a Chicago paper that "you can understand why they haven't won her in 100 years", as well as fighting with manager Lou Pinella and numerous other little moves designed to drive a team and its fans crazy.

Bradley has 2 years and $21 million left on his contract. Wells has 6 years and $107 million left on his. Elliot says:

The Cubs' idea is to split the difference on monies owed -- Wells' $107 million and Bradley's $21 million for a difference of $86 million. Each team absorbs $43 million.

Which would mean the Cubs would be paying Vernon about $10.67 million for the 6 years left in his contract. And the Jays would save $43 million over the 6 years.

The move would leave us without a CFer, unless you figure on Bradley playing center. And Bradley has averaged 94 games played a season so we'd have to have a reliable backup. Last year I was all for having the Jays look at Bradley for the DH role depending on how much he'd cost. I'm not all for having him play center field at all.

My other worry is that Cito had a clubhouse revolt last year with a bunch of very level headed players. What happens when you add a guy that throws a weekly temper tantrum at the best of times? I really don't imagine Cito as being the guy that can keep Milton in line.

I don't know, it would save us a little money and give Vernon a fresh start. He is just a year removed from having a very good season. It would force other moves because we'd need a CFer. Does Anthopoulos want to pick up a potential clubhouse problem as his first player move as GM?

You want to do it? You can look at it from the Cubs point of view over at Bleed Cubbie Blue.

Poll

Would you make this trade, assuming the numbers talked about are right?

Yes

107 votes

No

141 votes

248 votes | Poll has closed

Milton Bradley: Destination Toronto?

Al — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 15:26:48 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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The Toronto Sun reports this morning on a potential Milton Bradley for Vernon Wells swap:

The Chicago Cubs would like to -- have to -- deal disgruntled outfielder Milton Bradley. And one player they are eyeing as a target destination is the Blue Jays, with centre fielder Vernon Wells going to the Cubs in return.

"It's early on, but we think this one has some legs," said one Cubs official. "But they aren't the only team we are talking with."

Yes, "centre" is correct. Remember, the quote's from a Canadian paper. Vernon Wells signed an enormous contract with the Blue Jays before the 2008 season and there are six years left on the deal. How would the Cubs deal with that huge amount of money, given Tom Ricketts' statement yesterday that payroll would go up "slightly" next year, as well as Alfonso Soriano's remaining deal?

The Cubs' idea is to split the difference on monies owed -- Wells' $107 million and Bradley's $21 million for a difference of $86 million. Each team absorbs $43 million.

I was told there would be no math here, but if I have calculated this right -- and correct me, please, if I haven't -- that puts the Cubs on the hook for (approximately) $10.67 million for each of the six remaining years of Wells' deal. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, Wells has a full no-trade clause that would have to be waived, and he can opt out of the deal after 2011.

Since the departure of Milton Bradley was only going to be made possible by taking on someone else's bad contract, this might be a possible "best of the worst". Wells is about six months younger than Bradley and had a big offensive season as recently as 2006. He can play center field, which would allow the Cubs to move Kosuke Fukudome back to right field, a better position for him. I'm not completely sold on this deal, but remember, the Cubs aren't exactly in the best bargaining position, either. The article concludes:

The Cubs have to deal Bradley. Other possible landing spots: The San Francisco Giants for lefty Barry Zito, who has four years remaining at $83 million; the Indians for Travis Hafner, three years for $40.25 million, Giants' Aaron Rowand, three years at $36 million, the Dodgers for Juan Pierre, two years at $18.5 million, and Tampa Bay's Pat Burrell, one year at $7 million.

Well. There's no way the Cubs ever, ever, EVER take Juan Pierre back. The Burrell possibility has been rumored before; Burrell's a bad outfielder, but at least the Cubs would only be stuck with his deal for one year; we've discussed the Rowand possibility also, I doubt the Giants are dealing Zito now since he had such a good second half, and there would be absolutely no point in acquiring Hafner, who hasn't played a game in the field since 2007 and can only play first base -- the Cubs already have one of those.

We, as ever, await developments.