SB Nation - Frank Thomas

Evan Longoria and The 500 Home Run Club

Tommy Rancel — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:45:16 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

As 2010 projections start to be released, we will take a look at some of the more important ones from time to time. Projections are what they are, but they are still fun to look at. All in all, I would say the ZiPs projections are a bit more realistic than the Bill James projections because ZiPs tends to be a bit conservative. Aside from the single season projections, you may have noticed that the ZiPs projections include an extrapolated career projection; most namely the projection of Evan Longoria.

In case you missed it, according to ZiPs, Longoria will finish his career with a line of .263/.349/.501 and 526 home runs in 2535 career games. Remember that we take the yearly projections with a grain of salt, so this roughly ~16 year projection should be taken even more lightly. Nonetheless, there isn't much going and it's nice to dream of Longoria hitting that 526^th home run as a member of the Rays.

Currently, there are 25 members of the 500 home run club with more to be added over the next decade. By the time Longoria is projected to be approaching such a milestone the membership could be close to double.

Here is the list as it stands today...

	HR	AB
Barry Bonds	762	9847
Hank Aaron	755	12364
Babe Ruth	714	8398
Willie Mays	660	10881
Ken Griffey Jr.	630	9703
Sammy Sosa	609	8813
Frank Robinson	586	10006
Mark McGwire	583	6187
Alex Rodriguez	583	8304
Harmon Killebrew	573	8147
Rafael Palmeiro	569	10472
Jim Thome	564	7706
Reggie Jackson	563	9864
Mike Schmidt	548	8352
Manny Ramirez	546	7962
Mickey Mantle	536	8102
Jimmie Foxx	534	8134
Ted Williams	521	7706
Willie McCovey	521	8197
Frank Thomas	521	8199
Eddie Matthews	512	8537
Ernie Banks	512	9421
Mel Ott	511	9456
Gary Sheffield	509	9217
Eddie Murray	504	11336

Obviously, longevity is a must. Even Mark McGwire, who has the least about of at-bats of any member, needed over 6,100 at-bats. McGwire by far has the best HR/AB ratio hitting a "dinger' nearly every 10.6 at-bats or a full AB better than second place Babe Ruth, who averaged a home run every 11.7 at-bats. Longoria is no where near that kind of pace, but he is still ahead of six players in the club

	HR Per AB
Mark McGwire	10.61235
Babe Ruth	11.7619
Barry Bonds	12.92257
Jim Thome	13.66312
Harmon Killebrew	14.21815
Alex Rodriguez	14.24357
Sammy Sosa	14.47126
Manny Ramirez	14.58242
Ted Williams	14.79079
Mickey Mantle	15.11567
Jimmie Foxx	15.23221
Mike Schmidt	15.24088
Ken Griffey Jr	15.40159
Willie McCovey	15.73321
Frank Thomas	15.73704
Hank Aaron	16.37616
Willie Mays	16.48636
Eddie Matthews	16.67383
Frank Robinson	17.07509
Evan Longoria	17.2
Reggie Jackson	17.52043
Gary Sheffield	18.10806
Ernie Banks	18.40039
Rafael Palmeiro	18.40422
Mel Ott	18.50489
Eddie Murray	22.49206

A few other things to note...

In 2008, Longo's HR/AB was 16.59, but dropped to 17.6 in 2009. Injuries seem to have slowed him down at bit last year, but a 17.2 average is pretty good in its own right.
Right now Longoria's rate is closest to Frank Robinson. It took Robinson nearly 8,500 at-bats to get to 500. If Longoria stays on his current pace of 17.2, it would take 8,600 to get to 500. That means Longo would need to keep his same HR rate and amass 600 at-bats each year for the next 14+ seasons.
Aside from the 526 homers, the projection has Longoria hitting 628 doubles. Only Hank Aaron (624) and Barry Bonds (601) have hit 500+ home runs and 600+ doubles.
Longoria currently hits a double every 13.76 ABs. That pace is better than any member of the 500 home run club with Ted Williams' 14.76 coming as second best.
The last statistic I looked at was walks. Longoria ranks in the bottom third in terms of walk rates amongst the list, but at age 24 he has plenty of time to practice his patience at the plate.

Odds are Longoria won't play long enough to actually hit 500 home runs, and the odds are even longer that if he does it will be as a member of the Rays. He would need to play for another 14 or 15 years at a high level and avoid a major injury. While the quest for 500 may fall short, the fact that we have a player so talented that 500 home runs doesn't seem that crazy is pretty good.

Bloody Sox Laundry - 9/9/09

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 09:01:25 -0000

Coincidence that 9/9/09 is Baseball Day?

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Happy Baseball Day!!!

@MLB

Less than 2 hours till Baseball Day - 9/9/9 - and the best debate ever by a whole fan base. Watch for MLB.com and then all 30 club sites.

In other news:

Ortiz's homer ties Frank Thomas for most by DH - Yahoo! Sports

Coolie-O. Of course, The Big Hurt hit a ton as a first basemen, so Papi has a while to go to catch him for real.

After the jump, some more homer bits, and an awesome piece by BtB.

@RDSoxProspectus

Last time 5 players hit 20+ HR’s in a season was back on 2003 (Bay,Youkilis,Ortiz,Martinez,Drew-2009)

@RDSoxProspectus

Last time 6 home runs in a game was Sept. 15,2008 when they faced the Rays

Cool, right? I mean, for all the talk about the Sox not being a power team, those are very impressive feats. Of course, it's not going to win any of them the MVP, especially not when a certain player has it locked up, according to Tommy Rancel at Beyond the Boxscore.

The AL MVP is.... - Beyond the Box Score
Epic. I wonder how many would have taken it seriously if it didn't start with a sarcasm tag.

Monday Morning Astros, etc Round Up

HighLeveragePerformer — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 11:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

It's gotten to the point where we're posting photos of ex players.

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After the New York Times levied pitch tipping allegations against Miguel Tejada, Tejada saw fit to respond yesterday:

"I've never tipped pitches," Tejada told MLB.com before he was given a rare off-day from the starting lineup on Sunday as the Astros closed their three-game series at Chase Field. "I love this game and that's not the way I play it. I'm a proud player. I would never do such a thing. It's tough to get a hit. And for me to tip pitches to anybody, that's crazy. I play for my team."

From what I can tell, it seems questionable that he was knowingly tipping other team's hitters as to what pitch was about to be thrown, despite former teammate Johnny Damon's assertions that "it seemed like all the Dominican guys were killing us." Sorry, but I don't really trust Damon's reflections on a particular nationalities' success against his team 8 years ago.

JJO raises the same point that clack did weeks ago- have Bud Norris's IP total caught up to him? Dewey Robinson seems to think that Norris is doing fine, and that skipping him in his next start will do him good. As far as September call ups are concerned, Round Rock pitcher Billy Sadler will get a call up once the RR season is through. Anyone with information on him is welcome to chime in. Wes Wright will also join the Astros in Chicago....also,

Time to welcome some vets, folks. Doug Brocail and Aaron Boone will be added to the major league roster on Tuesday. Chris Sampson, Tommy Manzella and JR Towles are other possibilities to be added to the club in September. Chris Johnson, for those who were wondering, isn't on the 40 man roster and therefore isn't eligible to be called up.

First Jeff Bagwell gets in the news after RJ touts him as next Astros' manager, then Beyond the Boxscore does a post on the top 14 first basemen of all time in terms of WAR, and Bags is #6 on the list:

He had excellent power (perhaps not completely appreciated due to his home park) and an exceptionally good batting eye (149 walks in 1999), which helped him post a career OBP of 0.408. He also had excellent speed for a second baseman, topping 30 steals twice, and was a fine defender throughout most of his career. He led the league in runs scored three times, and won the MVP in the strike-shorted 1994 season with a crazy 0.368/0.451/0.750 season (that's 39 home runs and 9 WAR in 110 games, folks)...He becomes eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2010. I have a hard time reading the rest of the mainstream media, but I suspect that his teammate Craig Biggio will have an easier time than Bagwell despite having the weaker, albeit longer career. Lack of association with steriods may help both of them given the current backlash against suspected users.

The group of players ahead of Bagwell, Gehrig, Cap Anson, Jimmie Foxx, Roger Connor and Dan Brouthers, all had careers that were finished before WWII. Is Jeff the greatest 1B of the post WWII generation? At least by one measure, yes. (At least until Albert finishes up, that is). Frank Thomas was not a part of the list, as he was considered to be a DH. Before Bags had to exit the game, their stats were remarkably similar...as were their birthdays!

Elias released its most recent classifications of players. Astros' free agents that are either classified as A or B:

Miguel Tejada, B

Jose Valverde, A

LaTroy Hawkins, A

Doug Brocail, B

Tim Byrdak, B

In Defense of the General Manager

U-God — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 16:10:46 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

The man on the right is better at his job than people outside of Chicago give credit for. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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When OSFIB posted this link today, I found my muse for the off day. As most of our readers (and White Sox fans in general) have probably noticed, ripping on Kenny Williams and calling him a below average GM has almost become accepted as common knowledge outside of the state of Illinois. Even other SBN sites have jumped in on it. The thing is, it hasn't been a correct assumption for a while. Further analysis (and an almost complete GM history) after the jump.

The man has made his mistakes and there is no denying that. The Todd Ritchie trade was awful, giving up Ray Durham for Jon Adkins still hurts, and who can forget the confusing multiple trades for Carl Everett and Roberto Alomar. And then there was his unfortunate attacks on Frank Thomas after the Big Hurt had some disparaging remarks towards the only organization he had ever known. The thing is, the man has improved. Over the course of his career he went from the sheep being fleeced to the man holding the shears. Over the past few season Kenny has turned minor leaguers and stable veterans into Freddy Garcia, Jim Thome, Jose Contreras, Javier Vazquez, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Matt Thornton, Orlando Cabrera, and Carlos Quentin. He snagged Bobby Jenks off of waivers from the Angels. He brought A.J. Pierzynski, Tadahito Iguchi, Jermaine Dye, and Orlando Hernandez in as free agents during a time when other teams were more desirable. He kept Paul Konerko, Mark Buehrle, and Jermaine Dye in town when they could have made more money elsewhere. He gave Ozzie Guillen his first chance to manage a baseball team. He played a large part in the magic that was 2005. He took over an ineffective draft plan, and since he started being more hands on with it the Sox have drafted Aaron Poreda, Gordon Beckham, Daniel Hudson, Trayce Thompson, Jared Mitchell, and Jordan Danks. He opened a pipeline to Cuba using Contreras and El Duque that has helped result in Alexei Ramirez and Dayan Viciedo.

Does he still have his flaws? Yes. His hands were pretty much tied during the Nick Swisher fiasco. He still tends to get tunnel vision and focus on getting a player no matter what or when (Ken Griffey Jr and Jake Peavy). But he isn't the rube he was back in the day. The article OSFIB linked us compared Kenny Williams to a gambler that loses a good deal of money. I like the gambler comparison, but I really don't see the second half being true. This could be me simply being a homer. I do tend to give KW the benefit of the doubt with his moves, but it's not as if he hasn't earned it. He inherited an okay team with no farm system to speak of. He has given us one losing season, two trips to the playoffs, and improving farm system, and a World Series championship. He's even starting to get more credit from actual journalists, which is nice. Is he the best GM in baseball? No, granted I don't know who I would give that title to. Do I believe he is in the top 10? Yes. The man does his best to make sure we remain competetive every season without completely mortgaging the future. Remember that the next time you read about how big of a stooge or over-aggressive moron Kenny Williams is.

GM History from 2000-2008 courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors

Ozzie Guillen: Ramirez Not As Good As Me

The Cheat — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 02:36:32 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Ozzie Guillen discusses the rules about inserting himself into the game at SS.

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The Game That Wouldn't End might have finished a lot sooner if Alexei Ramirez hadn't pulled Paul Konerko well off the bag with another one of his lackadaisical lollipop throws to first base. Ramirez clearly has a strong enough arm to play shortstop in the major leagues, but he's shown a reluctance to showcase that arm on plays that don't require it, turning routine, easy outs into bang-bang plays, making Konerko dig balls out of the dirt, and, on occasion, extending innings with completely avoidable errors.

His error Thursday may not have cost the Sox in the 'W' column -- the only stat that matters -- but it set the wheels in motion for Ozzie Guillen to burn through the bullpen, and shortens his pen options for tomorrow's game with the Cubs.

Octavio Dotel has pitched in 3 consecutive games, which means he'll probably be unavailable.
Bobby Jenks has pitched on back-to-back days. So while he's not off-limits, Ozzie might be reluctant to use him in anything but the highest-leverage of save situations.
Scott Linebrink, as I've discussed before, hasn't been good in over a year when pitching on back-to-back days, but he'll definitely be available. Oh joy.
DJ Carrasco threw 38 pitches one day after throwing 15.

The rest of the pen should be available, but they're all left-handed, which means Jim might get one of his wishes. Asked directly about Aaron Poreda's performance, Guillen gushed

"That's his first [win] in the big leagues?" Guillen asked after Thursday's game. "There's a lot more to come. When this kid comes out of the bullpen and is throwing strikes with cockiness, he'll be used a little more out of the bullpen now."

Poreda has breezed through his first 4 outings, using almost exclusively fastballs. He threw only one non-fastball on Thursday, a quality slider to strike out Mark Loretta. I've felt that Poreda could succeed from the bullpen for the last year now, and haven't seen anything to change my mind in his few appearances.

As for Ramirez, Ozzie was not nearly as positive

"We played 14 innings because we were lousy in the field," Guillen said. "Lousy and lazy in the field. I never criticize my players for making errors, I never will. But when you make a lazy error, that really [bothers] me."

"I made a big mistake when I said in January he's going to be a better shortstop than Ozzie Guillen. I never thought I was that bad."

I don't expect Ramirez to sit out any games of the Cubs series this weekend. But he at least got an earful from Ozzie after the press conference, which might be the kick in the pants he needs to finally throw over to first base like a professional.

* * * * *

Frank Thomas is 'close' to retiring, which isn't really news. It's not like teams are were beating down the door to sign the broken down slugger. But it's of interest to us here because the White Sox could have something planned. It sounds like both sides want to work something out.

"I hope so," he said. "This is family. The South Side made me who I am, and I had such a great career there, so I would love for that to happen. "Right now, I haven't officially retired. Once I officially retire, we can sit down and talk about what we want to do."

If the Sox plan a Frank Thomas night for sometime in September, where he either suits up one more time to 'retire' in a White Sox uniform, or just simply retire his number -- the statue comes later -- I'll be there. They could probably even make it a premium date. ;)

I'm Not the Way I Thought I Was: Solving the Blue Jays' DH-Sized Dilemma

hugo — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 17:25:56 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Travis Snider's ineffectiveness and subsequent injury has left the Jays in the lurch for a competent designated hitter. How to solve this vexing problem? (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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So, as you B^3-ers likely remember, the Jays had a bit of trouble at the DH spot last season. Jays' DHs batted .247/.325/.418, well below league-average DH production. It was especially problematic for a team like the 2008 Jays, who were built around pitching and defense, to have such tepid production out of the offense-only DH spot. Even worse was the production out of left field (.258/.325/.384), the second-least important defensive position.

Going into this season, Jays faithful were told that this was the year of Adam Lind and Travis Snider. Most of the "credit" for the poor DH/LF performance was due to Frank Thomas, Shannon Stewart, Matt Stairs, Brad Wilkerson, and Kevin Mench -- I won't even show their numbers, because they are awful, but just trust me -- and those 5 gentlemen were all gone. Here on B^3, we thought Lind was ready for prime-time, but we debated the merits of acquiring a LF/DH bat, especially with the market cold on guys like Pat Burrell, and starting Snider in the minors rather than just throwing him into the fire. I can't remember what we concluded, so let's assume that we all unanimously agreed that Snider wasn't quite ready to make the necessary adjustments once the league got a taste of him and that he should start in the minors.

Fast forward to the end of June, we're almost but not quite halfway through the season, and the Jays are doing well, sitting 5 games over .500 and just 1 game behind the New York Yankees for the AL Wild Card lead. And, yet, a familiar problem...

Snider started hot but cooled off quickly and drastically. He was sent to the minors where he hurt himself and won't even be swinging a bat again until July. I think it's safe to assume he'll be a September callup, if anything. Adam Lind started the season as the regular DH and was fantastic but took over leftfield duties when Snider was sent down. Lind, unlike Snider, plays against lefties and righties (a healthy .847 OPS against lefties), so he doesn't need a platoon partner. But so who should play DH?

The Contenders:

Kevin Millar: Copacetic Up? Millar started the season as Lyle Overbay's platoon partner but Overbay has been hitting so well lately (though his numbers against lefties are pretty poor still) and offers so much more defensively that you can make the argument that Lyle should be playing every day. Millar has never shown much platoon-i-ness, and offers all that gooey clubhouse stuff, so he'd seem like a logical choice to take the everyday DH spot, right? Not so fast! You might not have noticed if you don't have a Millar effigy you punch in the face every morning like our very own Tom Dakers, but old Kev's hitting hasn't exactly been up to par lately. He's presently batting a putrid .246/.318/.388, which is actually worse than our DH production from last year. He's doing all right against lefties (.821 OPS) but absolutely putrid against righties (a Mac-like .596 OPS) so he might be half of the answer (actually more like 1/3 of it) but definitely is not the full answer. And he's been awful for the past two months (.647 OPS in May, .618 in June). Next.

Jose Bautista: Bautista has always hit lefties well -- he has a career .819 OPS against them -- and this season is no exception. Jose is batting .302/.383/.472/.855 against portsiders, definitely well enough to be the right-handed third of a DH platoon. But he has always been a bad hitter against righties, and this season, far from being an exception, has been much worse -- we're talking .217/.397/.250 bad, albeit in just 80 plate appearances. You'll notice from the high OBP that Bautista has earned a lot of walks against righties, and that's certainly true. On the flipside, he has seemed afraid to swing the bat against them, and perhaps for good reason given his poor hitting. Bautista has a long career of being a bad major-league hitter against righthanded pitching (.683 career OPS against them). Bautista wouldn't be a bad option to DH against lefties, but as an everyday DH he's a terrible choice. And of course DH-ing him would compromise his versatility in the field (since the DH can't replace a fielder unless the pitcher bats). And Jose is needed to spell Rolen fairly frequently.

Russ Adams: Recently called up to the Jays, Russ Adams isn't anybody's first idea of a DH. He has an 81 OPS+ over his major-league career and, up until recently, was a middle infielder. That said, Adams has been attempting to re-make himself into a utility player over the past few seasons, with some success. He hasn't lit up AAA at all the past two seasons, but he had a nice second half last year and started well this season (.876 OPS with Las Vegas in 2009). Of course, you have to look at those numbers in the context of the PCL, but in truth Adams has never been all that bad of a hitter against right-handed pitching. Over Russ' career, he has a .725 OPS against starboard-side hurlers, not great but considerably better than Millar and Bautista are doing against righties at the moment (and, in Bautista's case, over his career). Consider that Adams is in his hitting prime while Millar is way past it. And Russ certainly offers more than either of those two on the basepaths.

An interesting comparison for Adams is Ben Zobrist. Zobrist is the same age as Adams and his career has followed a similar path - a former SS whose plate discipline in the minors didn't translate to the majors right away and who moved from SS amidst concerns about his defense. Zobrist, unlike Adams, is a switch-hitter, but he's pretty much exclusively used as a lefty hitter and has remade himself as a platoon utility player and corner-infielder. Zobrist had a great 1/3 or so of a season last year in that role and has been even better this season in the same role. He's not all that different of a hitter than Adams and, while I'm not suggesting Adams will put up an OPS north of 1.000 in 225 plate appearances, as Zobrist has done thusfar, there's at least some precedent for the idea that a former middle-infield prospect can become a successful platoon-type corner outfielder.

Randy Ruiz: Ruiz, essentially a career minor-leaguer, has a nice track record in the minors, and is currently OPS-ing .971 with AAA Las Vegas, with solid power numbers. On the other hand, he's a right-handed hitter (though he has hit well against righties in the minors) so a platoon isn't really an option and his hitting didn't translate to the majors last season in his first taste of the bigs (at 30). He probably wouldn't be any worse than starting Millar every day, but that doesn't necessarily make him a great option as an everyday DH.

David Dellucci: Dellucci was recently acquired by the Jays as a lefthanded bat and has been playing a bit in AAA. Looch hit .275/.333/.350 in 45 plate appearances for Cleveland earlier this season, isn't doing much in the minors, and is 3 years removed from his last even league average season. His bat speed seems to be fading. I don't think he's the answer either.

Brian Dopirak: He's only at AA, but with the 1st base and DH spots occupied by guys hitting well (Ruiz and Brett Harper) at AAA, he's more than earned a promotion and with the hole we have at DH, why not to the bigs? There's no doubt that Dopirak's line -- .307/.369/.580, with 16 home runs, 22 doubles, and 1 triple in 291 plate appearances -- is impressive, and he's 25 years old so there's no argument that he's too young. Dopirak, like Ruiz , Millar, and Bautista, bats righthanded, so he would need to be the everyday DH to get the at-bats he'd need to make it worth bringing him up. He's hit righties quite well this season though.

????: I haven't heard the Jays to be seriously involved in trade talks for a bat, but it's possible they could bring someone in from outside the organization to DH. Dakers has mentioned Nick Johnson, and he's certainly a good hitter (126 lifetime OPS+). He's putting up excellent numbers in a pitchers' park right now, and he is a patient, tough out with a gap to gap approach. Folks have said he's having a career year, but he's not -- he's in with his career numbers, but just healthy after an awful string of bad luck and accidents. DHing might keep him healthy, and his contract runs out at the end of this season so I can't imagine the Nationals would want more than a minor-league arm or two for him. It might be worth a look. Other possibilities? For sentimental reasons, how about Frank Catalanotto? He wouldn't cost more than a PTBNL, I'd imagine. But he hasn't done anything this season and he wasn't great last year either, so I'm not sure what type of upgrade he'd be over Dellucci. There are other bats available, so by all means, who do you want to DH for the Jays? Unless they make a move for Johnson or someone else, I'm afraid the best option is a Bautista/Adams or Millar/Adams platoon, and that's not exactly encouraging if the Jays plan to continue to contend, is it? So let's hear it -- who would you DH from now on?

Title from a great song by the great Madison, Wisconsin band Rainer Maria

Career WAR Trifecta Quiz

Sky Kalkman — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 10:00:18 -0000

I'm going to present ten sets of three well-known players who were major leaguers in the retrosheet era. Your mission, if you choose to accept it, is to identify which player in each set accumulated the most career WAR (through 2008), as calculated by Sean Smith. The leader will have at least 5 WAR more than the other two players, to make the difference at least somewhat significant. (In fact, the worst player in each group will have at least 5 WAR less than either of the better two players, too, so you can shoot for extra credit by identifying the trailer, too.)

Now, career WAR is what is it, which is not the best measure of "best player". Holding on for five years at 2 WAR will add significant career value, but it doesn't impress me as much as two seasons of 5 WAR. That aside, here are the ten sets of players. Who has the most career WAR?

Rickey Henderson, Mike Schmidt, Mickey Mantle
Nolan Ryan, Phil Niekro, Bert Blyleven
Robin Yount, Pete Rose, Carl Yastrzemski
Tom Seaver, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux
Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, Chipper Jones
Albert Pujols, Frank Thomas, Ryne Sandberg
Andruw Jones, Jim Edmonds, Ken Griffey Jr.
Chuck Finley, Luis Gonzalez, Jim Rice
Jim Kaat, Mariano Rivera, Fred McGriff
Andy Pettitte, David Cone, David Wells

Answers after the jump.

Here are the answers, with the players listed in descending order according to career WAR totals.

Rickey Henderson, Mike Schmidt, Mickey Mantle
Phil Niekro, Bert Blyleven, Nolan Ryan
Carl Yastrzeski, Pete Rose, Robin Yount
Tom Seaver, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson
Chipper Jones, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz
Frank Thomas, Albert Pujols, Ryne Sandberg
Chuck Finley, Luis Gonzalez, Jim Rice
Ken Griffey Jr., Jim Edmonds, Andruw Jones
Fred McGriff, Mariano Rivera, Jim Kaat
David Cone, David Wells, Andy Pettitte

How'd you do?

Members of the 500 Home Run Club Not In The Hall Of Fame

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Fri, 15 May 2009 17:50:11 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

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With Gary Sheffield just joining the 500 home run club as its 25th member and Jim Thome about to tie Mike Schmidt for 13th on the all-time list, I thought I would take a look at the group of ten players who have hit 500 home runs and aren't in the Hall of Fame.

To define the average Hall of Fame position player, I used JBrew's research based on Sean Smith's historical WAR. According to the data, the median WAR of the Hall of Famers since 1955 is 70.6.

First, here are the ten current members of the 500 HR club ranked according to their career WAR through 2008:

Name	Total WAR	Top 3 Seaons	Best 3 Year Period	Home Runs	HR Rank All Time
Bonds, Barry	173.9	37.3	35.4	762	1
Rodriguez, Alex	96.5	30.7	24.6	554	12
Griffey, Ken	83.1	28.5	26.3	614	5
Thomas, Frank	78.7	23.0	22.5	521	18
Palmeiro, Rafael	70.5	20.5	17.6	569	10
Thome, Jim	67.4	21.4	20.1	547	14
Ramirez, Manny	65.3	19.6	17.7	533	17
Sheffield, Gary	64.5	20.6	16.9	500	25
McGwire, Mark	63.7	20.8	15.0	583	8
Sosa, Sammy	58.5	23.4	22.0	609	6

What really sticks out here is that McGwire and Sosa are in the top ten in home runs, but are the last two in total WAR. The other glaring issue is that seven out of ten of these players (all except Griffey, Thomas and Thome) have been linked to PEDs in one form or another. I really want to see how the HOF votes for some of these players. McGwire was the first to test the voting waters and while results haven't been good, he has the second lowest lifetime WAR of the club. It's tough to tell how much of the lack of McGwire love is linked to his usage of PEDs and how much is because he wasn't that good of a player. The real test will be when Bonds is eligible and how the voters react to his candidacy.

Beside just total WAR, I believe a player should be measured on what they did during the prime of their careers. The following chart has the ten players' total WAR along with their best three seasons and their best consecutive three seasons:

The only numbers that really stick out to me on that graph are from Sosa where he had a few really good years and not much beyond that. Sammy's top three seasons (23.4 WAR) accounted for 40% of his total WAR, while Frank Thomas' top three seasons (23.0 WAR) accounted for only 29% of his total WAR.

I originally graphed all ten players and the average HOF numbers together in one graph, but it was way too confusing. So instead I grouped the players by career WAR, with the best three in the first graph, followed by the middle three, and then the bottom four. The average HoFamer line is included for context.

Out of these players, the only one I bet would bet making the HOF on the first try is Griffey, while it seems like Thomas and Thome should eventually make it in. The other seven all have the PED headlines hanging over them, so whether they make it or not likely has more to do with how the HOF voters deal with PEDs than their actual productivity levels.

Opening Day

mlmintampa — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 05:05:00 -0000

For most of my life, today has always been Opening Day. Not until I started going to school at UF did I also think of today as the end of college basketball season. I always looked at college basketball as the schedule filler between college football (my second favorite sport) and baseball (my favorite). You'll have to excuse me if I am more worried about the Rays (my community ball club) and the Yankees (my ancestral ball club) than Michigan State or UNC.

Despite baseball's assorted scandals (gambling, segregation, player-owner issues, steroids), Opening Day is always a chance at rebirth. At it's best, baseball ebbs and flows, carrying you through the spring and summer, sending you into fall with a championship or optimism for next year. At it's worst, it will break your heart, only to call you back with The Next Can't Miss Kid.

Sports can provide a lift to a community or to an individual. For a lot of us, the Gators' march to the National Championship last year saved what was a terrible 2008. Job losses and shrinking bank accounts hurt less when Tim Tebow is hurting others. But, football is a four hour heart attack 14 weeks a year. Baseball is 162 days, when a loss means a chance at redemption tomorrow. Baseball is a lot easier on your blood pressure, unless it's October.

The great baseball authors write how baseball provides an outlet to escape from the world beyond the walls of the ball park. Twice in my life this has been true; the 2005 Gator Baseball team and the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. No matter what may be going on with your grades, your girlfriend/wife or your job, there are nine guys ready to play for you every day. Sometimes, you'll bring your girl to the park, but baseball is just as enjoyable alone with a scorecard and sunflower seeds.

I won't make the case that baseball is better than any other sport, but I think baseball offers more of a connection between the fan and player. I've met Roy Halladay and Frank Thomas. I've been at dinner when half the Yankees, a season after winning their fourth World Series in five years, ate next to us at a resturant in Tampa. The only autograph Derek Jeter gave out was to my four year old sister. Everyone else got a wave and a smile. When I covered Gator baseball, I was on a first name basis with Matt LaPorta and Gavin Dickey. I also got to visit with Carl Crawford and David Price 12 hours after the Rays defeated the Red Sox to win the American League Pennant. You see those guys every day on TV, their faces only obscured by the same cap you can purchase for $30 at any sporting goods store. You feel like they are friends of yours. Meanwhile, aside from Tim Tebow and a few others, football players are relatively anonymous. That leads to some people thinking any big guy must play football.

There is also the individuality of baseball. Americans value teamwork, but we also value personalities. In baseball, you can yell out and speak to the left fielder, for better or worse, and see his reaction. In football, the only reaction you get is the quarterback waving his arms to ask fans to quiet down. The individual is frowned upon in football because each player is a gear in the machine. Baseball relies on the individual, from the diving catch to the closer getting three outs in the ninth. Baseball is a series of one-on-one battles; pitcher-batter, batter-fielder, fielder-base runner. Football is unit vs. unit, treating the one-on-one as part of a larger strategy. That isn't to say one is better than the other. But, I've yet to see a baseball team penalized for celebrating a home run.

There will not be a day like today until the end of August, when college football starts. Make sure you have fun. Welcome To Opening Day.

Graph of the Day: Thomas vs. Griffey

Sky Kalkman — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 15:00:09 -0000

WAR data from Sean's historical WAR database. It's awesome. Each players' seasons sorted from best to worst, left to right.