SB Nation - Roy Halladay

Wednesday Open Thread: the Aftermath

hugo — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:00:09 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

So long, Doc. You are one of a kind. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

Just wanted to check in with some links around the blogosphere about the Halladay trade and then open it up to y'all:

At Fangraphs, Dave Cameron takes a look at the trade (not the Wallace-Taylor part):

Let’s start with the Blue Jays. They were obviously over a barrel with Halladay after the debacle of trying to trade him this summer. New GM Alex Anthopolous knew he needed to move his ace for the best package he could get, but also come away with enough young talent to sell this as more than an admission that they screwed up in July. In the trio of young players they’re getting from the Phillies, they were able to do just that.

Drabek, Taylor, and D’Arnaud are high quality prospects. For one year of Halladay (and $6 million in cash, which isn’t trivial but less useful to a Toronto team that won’t win in 2010), that’s a very strong return. Anthopolous did well to come away with that level of talent, given his leverage in the situation.

Also at Fangraphs, Dave Allen takes a look at Roy Halladay's stuff. Yeah, he's good. Now, I don't get why Philadelphia felt like they had to deal Cliff Lee on the same day they acquired Doc, since it really wasn't a three team trade. I would've thought they could have done better holding on to him for the best possible return, considering that worst-case scenario is probably a year of Cliff Lee well below market value for a competing team, followed by Type A free agent status. That said, I don't get why Phillies fans aren't happier with the deal. You got Roy Halladay, guys. It's a win. And he signed a team-friendly extension, and you replenished your farm system a bit by dealing Lee.
The Hardball Times likes the deal for the Jays too, including the acquisition of Wallace for Taylor:

Toronto made out extremely well, netting a high-upside pitcher in Kyle Drabek that they don't have anywhere in the system. Toronto has solid rotation depth, especially in the major leagues, but no one you can give the ball to on Opening Day and expect to win. Drabek can be that guy.

Travis D'Arnaud has been coveted by Toronto ever since he was selected a pick ahead of the Jays in 2007. The Blue Jays have J.P. Arencibia in their farm system, but there are questions about his ability to stay behind the plate, and D'Arnaud is the better value anyways. Michael Taylor was a Blue Jay for only the briefest of moments, as he was immediately shipped to Oakland for Brett Wallace.

While Taylor might evolve into a 20/20 player and provide good overall value out of the outfield, Wallace is the type of hitter Toronto needs in its next wave of youngsters. Toronto absolutely needs the upside that Wallace brings with the bat and can afford to worry about defense later. Assuming Wallace can't stick at third (which is not a done deal just yet), he has the options of moving to first or designated hitter, with no one blocking him at either position.

Toronto has put themselves in great position to field a young, competitive club as soon as 2012. That's all they could have asked for in a trade of Halladay.

I have to admit, I wasn't crazy about moving Taylor for Wallace at first, as it seems like Wallace will have to move to first base and I was looking forward to a season of Taylor, not Jose Bautista, in right field for the Jays in 2010 (and beyond). But the more I think about it, the more I'm pleased that the Jays have decided to go with the best talent they can get - I think it shows confidence in evaluation and in the ability to deal one of their 1st basemen/DH types if it comes to it. Overbay is clearly on his way out, Cooper is a big question mark, I like Dopirak well, but Ruiz can't be thought of as any time of long-term plan.

The Drunks have a run-down of Keith Law's comments on the deal. Law doubts Drabek can be a true ace because of the lack of a great third pitch, but likes him as a number two or, at worst, a number three. He thinks Wallace will be a great hitter, albeit as a first-baseman. And he projects d'Arnaud as a solid everyday catcher. Sounds like a plan to me. \
Jordan Bastian mentions what seems inevitable, that Overbay is on his way out, at the latest after 2010, that Cooper's stock has fallen, and that the Jays are considering moving Wallace to third base. I don't see the harm in keeping Wallace at third base in AAA if he's not going to make the major-league roster, though, unless they want to try Scott Campbell everyday at third in Las Vegas again.

What say you, banterers?

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 15:16:15 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Mark DiFelice hopes to pitch for the Brewers again in 2011.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while choosing carefully.

Well, this was bound to happen eventually: There's virtually no Brewer news today. Today's top story is the $100,000 minor league deal given to Mark DiFelice, who will spend the 2010 season rehabbing with Brewer trainers in the hope of returning to the mound with the Crew in 2011 (FanShot).

Elsewhere, Marc Hulet of FanGraphs has a look at the last few Brewer drafts, from a somewhat pessimistic point of view. The Brewer organization is down a bit and there's certainly not a lot of depth to speak of, but I think they deserve a little more credit than that.

I recently contributed to a discussion on the NL Central's moves at the Winter Meetings over at The Nats Blog, along with seven other NL Central sites.

We're continuing to plug away at the BCB All Decade Team. You have until 4 pm today to vote for our final starting outfielder, and 4 pm tomorrow to vote for our first bench infield spot. Geoff Jenkins has a pretty commanding lead in the former, but Craig Counsell's lead is much smaller in the latter. A new vote will open at 4 today.

Around baseball:

Royals: Are expected to sign former Twins pitcher Phil Humber to a minor league deal.
White Sox: Acquired Juan Pierre and cash from the White Sox for two PTBNL.

Meanwhile, side deals are being struck to go along with the not-yet-official Mariners-Phillies-Blue Jays deal involving Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay: When/if the deal becomes official, the Blue Jays will send outfielder Michael Taylor to the A's for third baseman Brett Wallace, recently acquired in the Matt Holliday deal.

In a financially larger transaction, the Rangers are one large step closer to having a new owner, as Tom Hicks has selected a group of investors including current team president Nolan Ryan to begin negotiations.

Not much else going on, so I guess we can talk about a couple of former Brewers: The B-Ref blog has a look at some of the unique facets of Mike Cameron's career. He's in elite company on some relatively significant all-time lists. The Transaction Oracle projects him to hit .252/.349/.442 in 2010.

Meanwhile, I know I said I'd try to go the rest of the week without mentioning Jason Kendall, but this Transaction Oracle quote is a little too good to pass up:

Seriously, if the Royals gave me $1 million to me to kick Moore in the crotch, they'd be better off from both a financial and a baseball standpoint.

How about a note about a former Brewer catcher that was actually pretty good? Cardboard Gods has a post where at least a couple of paragraphs are about Darrell Porter.

Here's a study I'd like to see someone duplicate for the Brewers: DRaysBay has a look at variations in the 2009 Rays' attendance based on starting pitcher. There's a lot of factors to consider (opponent, day of the week, position in the standings), but I wouldn't be surprised to discover the Brewers lost a fair chunk of attendance on days when Jeff Suppan or Braden Looper pitched down the stretch last season.

Speaking of things someone could duplicate for the Brewers, FishStripes has a Marlins add-on for Firefox. I'm not sure what exactly that entails, but if someone made a Brewer one and it didn't get in the way while I'm trying to work, I'd use it.

It's possible it's just something to do for the sake of pretending to do something, but Bud Selig has formed a committee to consider and address on-field improvements for the game, and one writer (Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune) thinks it might be the first step towards a legitimate challenge of the DH rule. (h/t BBTF) Craig Calcaterra, however, threw some cold water on the theory.

On this day in 1999, the Brewers signed Jose Hernandez to a three year, $10 million deal. Hernandez had one very good season as a Brewer and made the All Star team in 2002, but also struck out 498 times in three seasons, leading the NL in two of his three years.

On this day in 2002, the Brewers traded Ray King to the Braves for Wes Helms and John Foster. Helms spent three years as a Brewer, hitting .268/.335/.425. Somehow, I remember him being much worse than that.

Happy birthday today to:

Alcides Escobar, who turns 23.
2003-2004 Brewer Matt Kinney, who turns 33.
Former Brewer first round pick and 1975 Brewer Tommy Bianco, who turns 57.

Drink up.

Would You Pay $2 to Have Lee AND Halladay Pitching for the 2010 Phillies?

David S. Cohen — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 04:17:12 -0000

If the reports are correct (and I'm still in the camp that says that we really can't trust anything until the deals are finally announced), the Phillies are selling off Cliff Lee for 2010 because, with Roy Halladay in the fold, they're going to be over their $140M budget.

So, the Phillies would rather a) avoid paying Lee in 2010 and get three of the Mariners prospects than b) pay Lee in 2010 and let him go in free agency while getting two compensation draft picks. The Mariners prospects are slightly more valuable than two compensation picks, but only slightly. But, for this exercise, let's say it's a wash.

This part of the deal then is really just about money. Cliff Lee is under contract for 2010 for $9 million. The Phillies last year had a total home attendance of just over 3,600,000. Add in the 8 home playoff games, and we're just under 4,000,000 fans watching baseball games at Citizens Bank Park.

The math here is very easy. If the Phillies charged $2 extra per ticket in 2010, they'd make up almost all of Cliff Lee's contract. And that's without figuring in an attendance bump (albeit slight considering the number of sell-outs last year) or other ways the Phillies could capitalize on a rotation of Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Happ/Blanton (makes you salivate, doesn't it?).

So, here's my question to you: would you, as a paying customer of the Philadelphia Phillies, be willing to fork over $2 extra per ticket next year to keep Lee on the team along with newly acquired Halladay?

The poll is below, but I'm betting I know the answer to this one. And if the math here is this simple and obvious, then why the hell is Ruben Amaro so hell-bent on getting rid of Cliff Lee?

[Edited Wednesday morning with Cliff Lee's correct 2010 contract value. His base is $8M but he has a $1M bump this year. My point still stands.]

Poll

Would you pay $2 extra per ticket in 2010 to see Cliff Lee in the rotation along with newly-acquired Roy Halladay?

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 15:38:02 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Curry - AP

Craig Counsell slides right into the projected 2010 roster.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while she digs for her phone.

It's finally time to back off the comments about Randy Wolf not wanting to be here. Wolf said all the right things in his introductory press conference yesterday, and now actually appears happy to be a Brewer. Jen Lada was also at the press conference, and tweeted four quotes giving a nice feel for Wolf and the organization's excitement to have him.

The Brewers also announced Craig Counsell's new deal yesterday (FanShot). Counsell will earn $2.1 million next season along with some playing time incentives. The Bucky Channel says moves like this one are "crucial when trying to make a smaller market team a contender." Fire Doug Melvin is fine with the move, as long as Counsell doesn't take playing time away from Mat Gamel.

With Wolf and Counsell officially on board and LaTroy Hawkins (physical on Wednesday) and Claudio Vargas (physical on Friday) expected to be added by the end of the week, Adam McCalvy notes that the Brewer 40 man roster is about to be full, which might mark the end of any major Brewer moves in free agency. Two notes on that:

If you're still waiting for the Brewers to sign another starting pitcher, odds are you'll be waiting for a while. Adam McCalvy said Doug Melvin probably regrets comments he made months ago suggesting the Brewers were looking to sign two starters.
Secondly, the 40 man roster may be full, but it's a "soft" full. Room could almost certainly be made by outrighting new acquisition Luis Cruz or Tim Dillard, who would most likely go unclaimed at a time of year when no one has many 40 man spots to spare.

The roster crunch was one of the reasons cited for non-tendering Mike Rivera. Brewed Sports isn't too happy with the decision, and also notes that non-tendering the team's lone returning catcher pokes a hole in arguments used to support starting Jason Kendall last season.

Speaking of crowded situations, you can add David Riske to the list of pitchers to pencil into a bullpen spot to start the season. Doug Melvin said Riske expects to be ready for spring training (FanShot). That's bad news for Chris Smith, Chris Narveson, Zach Braddock and Chuck Lofgren, among others, who now may be fighting for one roster spot. If Mark DiFelice hadn't gone down, they'd all come to Maryvale on the outside looking in. A lot can happen between now and then, of course.

And speaking of Chris Smith, Brewerfan.net asked someone from the Brewer organization to verify some of their option info, and discovered that Smith doesn't have any options left. Obviously, Smith wouldn't be a major loss, but it's possible someone would claim him if he were available.

Meanwhile, we reached the final conclusion of the Mike Cameron era in Milwaukee yesterday, as he agreed to a two year deal with the Red Sox (FanShot). Cameron's strikeouts and one memorable dropped fly ball made him a polarizing talent as a Brewer, but most advanced metrics seem to agree on his significant value, and you'll rarely hear anything negative said about him as a teammate and clubhouse presence. If you missed it last night, Jordan has a goodbye post for him.

How lucky are the Brewers to have Ryan Braun? I think we occasionally forget how rare it is for a player to have an impact as immediate as his in the major leagues. Braun hit the second most home runs of any major leaguer in their first 162 games, and also collected the tenth most hits, making him the only player to appear on both lists.

Speaking of luck, Braden Looper's 14 wins last season made him the most unlikely winner in major league history.

Another day, another new poll for our BCB All Decade Team. You have until 4 pm today to select a catcher, and until 4 pm tomorrow to select our final starting outfielder. So far Damian Miller and Geoff Jenkins are leading those votes, respectively.

After looking at the candidates at catcher, I'm starting to wish I had gone this route instead: Camden Chat has an All-Awful lineup for the 2000-2009 Orioles.

And actually, speaking of awful: Rob Neyer has a ranking of the Top 100 players of the 2000's, and while former Brewers CC Sabathia (#25), Mike Cameron (#36), Ray Durham (#71), Jose Valentin (#88) and Corey Koskie (#92) are on it, Prince Fielder is nowhere to be found.

Around baseball:

Angels: Signed Hideki Matsui to a one year, $6.5 million deal.
Astros: Re-signed outfielder Jason Michaels to a one year deal.
Blue Jays: Signed catcher Ramon Castro to a one year, $1 million deal.
Mariners: Signed catcher Eliezer Alfonzo to a minor league deal.
Marlins: Signed pitcher Clay Hensley to a minor league deal.

Of course, the biggest transaction "announced" yesterday appears to be far from done, and may take several days to be made official: A three way deal would send Roy Halladay to the Phillies, Cliff Lee to the Mariners and prospects to the Blue Jays. You might recognize this trade as one several bloggers mocked Ken Rosenthal for suggesting over the weekend. I guess he knows something after all.

Happy birthday today to 2005-2006 Brewer Rick Helling, who turns 39.

Drink up.

Tuesday Rockpile: Roy Halladay will pitch at Coors Field in 2010 (maybe)

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 14:24:35 -0000

More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

By now, Doc surely must be having nightmares of being chased by mic booms

Browse more photos »

I know everyone is waking up in hopes of hearing the final details of the Halladay/Lee blockbuster, but alas, there's nothing to report yet. Here's some appetizers while you wait:

If the trade is finalized, Halladay has a 60% chance of taking the mound once during the regular season next year. Philadelphia comes to town May 10-12.

It must be terrible to play in Toronto, where a meteor striking New England provides the only chance of playoff action. Not surprisingly, Roy Halladay wants postseason action (Dusty Saunders, Denver Post). One interesting line:

He has never pitched in a single major-league postseason game. Not one. That's about to change.

When is the last time an NL team was so supremely awesome on paper in November that playoff tickets could already be printed?

Someoned analyzed the Halladay/Lee insanity with Trade Value Calculator at Beyond the Box Score. If Blicks' calculations are correct, the trade heavily favors Toronto (though their value is most volatile as it is chiefly tied to prospects) while Philly paid over $23million in value for a 1.0 WAR increase. Of course, Cliff Lee's reluctance to sign on longterm and Halladay's requisite 3-year extension in place changes the motives.

RJ Anderson at Fangraphs writes about Cliff Lee. One thing is certain - Halladay cannot be more dominant against the Rockies than Lee was. It's not like Halladay dominated the Rockies the one time he pitched against us. Oh, wait.

Rockies Links

Rockies are among Capps' suitors | ColoradoRockies.com: News (Thomas Harding)
Colorado has apparently called Matt Capps' agent, which naturally could mean anything. There is apparent mutual interest, as Capps enjoyed playing for Jim Tracy in 2006-07 and the Rockies need a right-handed reliever. The late inning roles are filled, so Capps would have to be filling the role Jose Contreras would leave. I assume O'Dowd would have mentioned this in the call he placed to agent Paul Kinzer, so the fact there remains "mutual interest" suggests to me that the former Pirate isn't shutting the door on a massively reduced role. However, if he still wants to pitch late in games, one of the other eight teams that have expressed interest will likely give him that opportunity. If the Rockies do acquire him, he could be next in line for the Bob Apodaca tune up. Something tells me 'Dac could get Capps to throw his fastball for strikes again.

Jon Heyman of SI.com writes of Yorvit Torrealba's grievance suit against the New York Mets from 2007. The hearing is scheduled for tomorrow regarding Omar Minaya backing out on a 3-year $14.4million contract following the 2007 season. Torrealba claims "the Mets falsely created the impression that [he] was an injury risk."

Atkins Non-Tendered | FanGraphs Baseball - Dave Allen tries to analyze Atkins' decline. While acknowledging his numbers have dropped each year since 2006, he lumps 2006-08 and compares is BABIP to 2009. The result - his fly balls aren't turning into home runs or hits anymore, effectively meaning he has lost his ability to hit the ball hard.

Reward Retrospective: The 2007 National League MVP - Beyond the Box Score
A hot topic during the NLDS was Matt Holliday's loss to Jimmy Rollins for NL MVP. Should Rollins have won? No. But should Holliday have won? Turns out he wasn't even a clear choice for second (nointangiblesjuststatisticallyWARspeaking).

MLB Trade Rumors: Roy Halladay Traded to the Phillies, Cliff Lee to the Mariners

raygu — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 14:00:22 -0000

by Winslow Townson - ASSOCIATED PRESS

1 day ago: Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Roy Halladay delivers a pitch against the Boston Red Sox in a baseball game at Fenway Park in Boston Sunday, Aug. 30, 2009. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

View full size photo »

We covered this huge blockbuster deal last night with many updates, so today I will provide Baseball America's take on the prospects that the Phillies are rumored to be dealing-pitcher Kyle Drabek, outfielder Michael Taylor and catcher Travis D'Arnaud.

First here is what is known as of this writing (10:45pm Monday)

Phillies-get Roy Halladay for Toronto, SP Philippe Aumont and OF Tyson Gillies from Seattle

Blue Jays-get Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Travis D'Arnaud from the Phillies

Mariners-get Cliff Lee from the Phillies

Kyle Drabek, SP, PHI

Strengths: Drabek has the organization's best curveball, a power downer that he can bury or throw for strikes. Some scouts rate it a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. His fastball sits at 88-93 mph, usually at the top end of that range, and has solid-average life. His competitiveness helps him maximize his stuff. Athletic and coordinated, he's effective holding runners, fielding his position and hitting.

Weaknesses: Drabek's changeup is his third-best pitch and still needs refinement, as Double-A lefthanders showed by bashing him for a .924 OPS (compared to .521 by righties). He has to improve his arm speed and his command with his changeup.

More after the jump:

Michael Taylor, OF, PHI

Strengths: Despite his size, Taylor has few holes and has become an excellent hitter, squaring up balls consistently and smashing line drives to all fields. Pitchers try to tie him up inside, and while he can be vulnerable there, he has shown the ability to make adjustments. He has excellent raw power, average speed and good baserunning instincts. He's a solid defender with an average-to-plus arm who grades as above average in left field.

Weaknesses: Taylor could stand to be more selective to get to his power more consistently. He needs to learn to loft the ball to become a true 30-homer threat. Conditioning probably will be a long-term issue for Taylor, who does a good job of staying on top of his juvenile diabetes.

Travis D'Arnaud, C, PHI

Strengths: The strong-bodied d'Arnaud got better as 2009 wore on, clubbing 25 doubles in his last 224 at-bats. He led the SAL in doubles and is tapping into his plus raw power. He has strength in his hands and generates good bat speed. D'Arnaud understands the importance of defense for a catcher and works hard at managing a staff. He has above-average arm strength, soft hands and good agility.

Weaknesses: Footwork can get d'Arnaud in trouble in both blocking balls and with the accuracy of his throws. He threw out just 40 of 172 basestealers (23 percent) last season, though opponents ran wild on Lakewood's pitching staff. He needs more at-bats against good breaking balls, against which he tends to lunge and get long with his swing.

Phillippe Aumont, SP, SEA

Strengths: Aumont cuts an imposing figure on the mound, and his stuff is just as intimidating. He already throws 90-95 mph with plus-plus sink and boring action, and he may be able to throw even harder as he matures physically. If batters sit on his sinker, he can blow a high-90s four-seam fastball by them. Aumont's crossfire delivery and low three-quarters arm slot can make it tough for batters to pick up his pitches. His low-80s breaking ball has plus potential.

Weaknesses: For such a high pick, Aumont is quite unpolished, and now he has to prove he can stay healthy. His arm angle makes it hard to stay on top of his breaking ball, and he has a long way to go with a true changeup after using a splitter as an amateur. If he came up with a more balanced delivery, his secondary pitches and his command would benefit.

Tyson Gillies, OF, SEA (BA has yet to complete their Top 10 list for Seattle)

Mike (WA): Tyson Gillies - everyday big leaguer or more of a platoon/4th OF type?
Ben Badler: Every day guy. Beyond just the speed, he's got the patience, the contact-hitting skills and enough ability to drive the ball to make his outstanding speed something usable beyond being just a pinch-runner/defensive replacement.

If this rumored deal is accurate, the Phillies will have dealt 4 of their top 10 prospects coming into the 2009 season, and 3 of their top 4 prospects going into the 2010 season-all for two months of Cliff Lee, and a World Series appearance, possibly 4 years of Roy Halladay (which includes the rumored 3-year extension at $20 million per year) and 6 years of Phillippe Aumont and Tyson Gillies.

This deal might be a win-win-win for each team involved at this point.

Poll

Who wins this rumored 3 team deal between the Phillies, Blue Jays and Mariners?

Settling for Lowe

gondeee — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:42:23 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Browse more photos »

It looks like the long-awaited trade of Atlanta Braves starter Derek Lowe is nearly upon us. The prerequisites for a Lowe trade are about to be finalized and that could be the trigger which leads other teams to make a move to acquire Lowe.

The Boston Red Sox are on the verge of signing John Lackey for way too much money. The Phillies and Mariners and Blue Jays are playing the Napa Cap Shuffle with Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, and the Phils want to have their cake and eat it too, so they will land Halliday regardless of the cost.

That leaves several teams, particularly the Angels, without a "top-flight" starter, and if they believe that Lowe fits that mold, then maybe they'll bite on a trade. The Mets, and specifically their fans, are also left wanting more, but not only do we not want to trade with a division rival, we don't match up well with the Mets on the trade front.

Those two teams would be the front runners for his services, but there may be another mystery team or two who could get into the bidding, especially if the Braves can eat some of Lowe's salary as they apparently indicated that they can (though that is not their preference). Lowe is essentially the next most attractive starting pitcher on the free agent or trade market this winter, and his services could come relatively cheap in terms of players a team would have to give up to get him.

For the Braves, getting rid of that contract would be a huge help, as the team must view that as somewhat of an overreaction last year to what had transpired the year before with the starting rotation. The balance on the Braves now would be to spend more money on the lineup rather than the rotation, especially with inexpensive rotation options in Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson entrenched for several years.

We're still in the sit and wait mode on a possible Lowe trade, but we're certainly waiting more eagerly.

[UPDATE: 11:15]

Maybe the White Sox could be a buyer. After all they seem to be collecting a bunch of old Dodgers players who have bad contracts.

Life After Lackey Starts With Sheets

James Kannengieser — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 10:00:22 -0000

With three of the better free agent starting pitchers (John Lackey, Randy Wolf, Rich Harden) off the market, and Roy Halladay a Phillie, Met fans have unsurprisingly started in with the it's-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it talk. Best practice to avoid this nonsense is turning off WFAN. Actually, that's probably a good idea in general, unless you're tuning in for the unintentionally hilarious grunts of Mike Francesa. Make no mistake about it: there are plenty of other strong options for the 2010 rotation, available via free agency and trade. One name that the Mets would be wise to make a strong play for is Ben Sheets.

Sheets is the best of the crop of talented, injury prone pitchers which includes Erik Bedard and Justin Duchscherer. He missed all of 2009 because of flexor tendon surgery and has a history of other assorted ailments. When healthy, he's one of the best in the game. Hopefully the Mets' reported preliminary interest in Sheets turns into strong pursuit, and soon. The rare blend of strikeout ability and control he provides (career K/BB of 3.85) is preferable to the fielding dependent stylings of Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro, especially considering the iffy Mets infield defense and presence of Mike Pelfrey and Jonathon Niese.

According to ESPN, Sheets is reportedly looking for a deal in the neighborhood of $12 million a season. That seems a bit excessive but I would endorse a deal similar to Harden's with a small bump because Sheets is slightly better. Maybe a one year deal for $9 million with an option around $12 million? If signed, he could realistically be a 2.5-3 win pitcher, even in ~140 innings. It would be wise to limit him to 25 starts or so to ensure health as well. Pairing Sheets up with someone more reliable would be prudent, and some of the available pitchers worth looking at are as follows:

Aaron Harang - My top choice to pair with Sheets. He can probably be had for less than he's worth, has a strong strikeout rate and is an overall above average pitcher. Just don't let Jerry Manuel use him on two days rest for four innings of relief. The home run problem might be alleviated if he escapes Great American Ballpark.
Derek Lowe - The contract might become an albatross but if the Braves kick in some money he would be a decent addition. Similar skill set to Marquis and Pineiro, albeit more dependable.
John Smoltz - Calling a 42 year-old with injury problems reliable is a big stretch but if Sheets isn't signed "Schmoltz" (per Ron Darling) is worth a look. His peripherals and velocity were there in 2009 and despite his status as long-time Brave he is a personal favorite. Every pitch he throws looks like an angry haymaker thrown at the batter. I rarely say things like this, with good reason, but Smoltz is a competitor who just seems to want it more than anyone else on the field. His intensity would help satiate the masses and mainstream media who think the Mets are a bunch of spineless slugs.
Doug Davis - An under the radar type whose numbers might surprise. Yes, he gets hit hard but considering his age and lack of brand name he could be a nice bargain on a cheap one year deal to fill out the back of the rotation.

See robcast23's Big Book Of Available Pitchers post for more on Sheets and the pitchers listed above.

Roy Halladay Trade: Part Three

Tom Dakers — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 07:17:27 -0000

Thank goodness I was out tonight or I'd have been refreshing browsers all night long. Anyway, at the moment it looks like the Jay are going to get Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Travis D'Arnaud for Doc and $6,000,000. I am not sure how they came to the $6 million figure but I'm fine with that.

Kyle Drabek: played A and AA last year. He had a 3.19 ERA between the two. Gave up 141 hits in 158 innings, 50 walks and 150 strikeouts. Have to like a guy that has a 3 to 1 K to walk rate at 21 years old. Baseball America lists him as the Phillies number 2 prospect, behind Dominic Brown. He is supposed to have a great curveball. He can throw hard too, up to about 97. He is who the Jays wanted at the trade deadline and who the Phillies wouldn't give up.

Michael Taylor: played in AA and AAA last year. Hit .320/.395/.549, 20 homers, 21 steals. Played RF and LF. Will be 24 next year and I'd want him to make the majors. Baseball America has him as the Phillies number 3 prospect and their best power hitting prospect. Tall at 6'6" and big 250 lb, right handed bat. Would fit in really well with the Jays.

Travis D'Arnaud: 20 year old catcher. Played A ball last year, hitting .255/.319/.419 with 13 homers. First round pick in 2007. Baseball America has him at number 4 on the Phillies prospect list. Thought to be a very good defensive catcher and looks like his offense isn't too bad. 13 homers for a 20 year old is pretty good. At least a year and a half away from the bigs.

If we get these 3, the Phillies number 2,3 and 4 prospects I'd be thrilled and I'd nominate Alex Anthopoulos GM of the year, even if the year hasn't started yet. It would be pretty amazing to get 3 prospects like this without having any leverage at all.

Morning UPDATE: Looks like Doc has agreed to a 3 year, $60 million contract extension, with 2 vesting options. So it could end up being a 5 year deal around $100 million. Pretty good money for throwing a rock. Other than that it looks like the deal stands as above. Phillies will get Aumont, Tyson Gillies and Juan Ramirez from the Mariners, but then who cares what the Phillies get.

If it goes as it stands now it's a really good job by Alex Anthopoulos. Without a lot of teams seriously bidding, he seems to have gotten more than you could really expect for a player entering the last year of his contract.

What Kind of Day Has it Been?

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 04:25:39 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

2 months ago: Boston Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell, left, walks with pitcher Clay Buchholz in the outfield of Fenway Park in Boston, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009. Buchholz is scheduled to start when the Red Sox host the Los Angeles Angels in Game 3 of the American League division baseball series on Sunday. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Browse more photos »

I woke up today at 4 in the morning. No good reason why other than that I'd uncharacteristically fallen asleep at 8 PM last night, but I had some time to kill before my 11 AM class. It was Monday, which meant it was time for me to get the Minor League update together. I did that on-off for a while, along with other random internet browsing, and eventually got it posted around 9 AM.

Looking around, I found out that the Mike Lowell trade had even more hitches, as his right thumb could require surgery. The status of the trade--and of 3rd base in 2010--seemed murkier than ever before. After signing Marco Scutaro on the 4th, the Red Sox had been remarkably quiet. Half the world seemed to think they were after Bay, the other half that they'd given up and moved on to Holliday, but there was nothing at all concrete. Anyways, I threw it up on the front page and went to class after mucking about for an hour.

At this point, the day had all the makings of a slow news day. Nothing was "in the works" that seemed likely to go down soon. In fact, it seemed like we might go quite a while before seeing any movement on any front.

And then came the storm.

It started when I noticed Randy had posted that John Lackey had taken a physical for the Red Sox. The next two hours were filled with speculation: had Lackey signed? Was this a ruse? A ploy? If he signed, for how much, and was that good?

At 3:30, I was back from class, and Randy had confirmation enough to put it on the front page. John Lackey, the #1 pitching free agent of the 2009-2010 offseason, had signed with the Boston Red Sox. The deal? 5 years, 85 million. The reaction? Mixed.

Knowing that Lackey had signed, though, had done nothing but fuel speculation. The Red Sox had 6 starters (all of whom seem set to start out of Spring Training), a hole at 3rd, and one very marketable young starter in Clay Buchholz. Was this a sign of things to come?

So far, we've seen nothing on that end. But that doesn't mean the Sox stopped there. No, within 2 hours, the Sox were in "serious talks" with center fielder Mike Cameron. 3 hours later, they had reached an agreement for 2 years and 15 million dollars.

In less than 12 hours, the Red Sox had made their mark on the postseason. They had set their outfield for the season, with a significant defensive improvement hopefully balancing out the loss of Jason Bay's bat. Whether Ellsbury will move to left or Cameron will take over there remains to be seen, but either way they've changed their defensive look for the better. More importantly, they bolstered their rotation to the point where it's a strong contender for the best in the MLB. The cherry on the top? Lackey was a potential candidate to fill holes for American League rival Yankees and Angels. The Yankees will now have to try and either make due with Joba and Hughes at #4 and #5--both of whom are significant question marks--and the Angels are in dire trouble with few solutions in sight.

Of course, nothing comes without consequences. The Red Sox are now spending at nearly Yankee levels. They've lost, in effect, a 2nd round pick by signing Lackey. The Blue Jays will now get that pick while the first rounder goes to the Angels. The Sox are still, ironically, without an answer to the question that started the day off, as 3rd base remains conspicuously vacant. Who knows whether the Sox can still afford signing Adrian Beltre? And is our offense good enough without any power bats on the left side of the field? And who on Earth is going to come out of the mess of humanity that is the Red Sox' bullpen? There's plenty still left to do.

Oh, yeah, and Roy Halladay went to the NL while Cliff Lee hits Seattle. The Jays? They got some of the young, cheap talent they needed all along, but it's going to be a long year for them.

So, Red Sox Nation, Over the Monster readers:

What kind of day has it been?