SB Nation - Carlos Beltran

Holiday Filler: Carlos Beltran's Greatest Hits

James Kannengieser — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 18:00:18 -0000

by Henny Ray Abrams - AP

Here is a respite from the rumor mill, the top ten most valuable plate appearances of Carlos Beltran's Mets career, as ranked by WPA. There's some pleasant memories here:

10. 4/16/2005
Play: RBI single off Todd Jones in the 8th inning
WPA: .331
Game Result: Mets 4, Marlins 3

Beltran had a rocky first year with the Mets but was great in his first two weeks (.884 OPS). He tied the game with a single in the 8th and the Mets took the lead on a Mike Piazza single one batter later. Braden Looper blew the save in the 9th but earned a vulture win after Ramon Castro's walkoff base hit.

9. 5/31/2008
Play: Two-run homer off Jonathan Broxton in the 8th inning
WPA: .337
Game Result: Mets 3, Dodgers 2

Fernando Tatis put the Mets ahead three batters after Beltran tied it up. Mike Pelfrey pitched great and then went on his mid-summer hot streak.

8. 5/12/2009
Play: Bases loaded walk off Jeff Bennett in the 10th inning
WPA: .344
Game Result: Mets 4, Braves 3

Sadly, this was one of the better moments of the 2009 season. The walk happened on a 3-2 count and it's possible the pitch was really strike three. Just nine days until 2010.

7. 5/23/2006
Play: Solo homer off Ryan Madson in the 16th inning
WPA: .362
Game Result: Mets 9, Phillies 8

A sixteen inning, five-and-a-half hours long marathon ended about the best way possible: walkoff homer off Madson. The Mets bullpen gave up just two runs in eleven innings. Those were the days.

6. 9/25/2008
Play: RBI single off Kevin Hart in the 9th inning
WPA: .388
Game Result: Mets 7, Cubs 6

This was a must-win game, coming one night after the infamous David Wright vs. Bob Howry matchup. Micah Hoffpauir aided this walkoff single with some spotty glovework but not before going 5-5 with two home runs in a career night.

5. 4/10/2005
Play: Two-run homer off John Smoltz in the 8th inning
WPA: .415
Game Result: Mets 6, Braves 1

Pedro Martinez was spectacular in this one (9 IP, 1 R, 9 K) and a go-ahead two run bomb off Smoltz was all the Mets needed to win. Smoltz struck out fifteen in 7.1 IP.

4. 6/11/2008
Play: Two-run homer off Edgar Gonzalez in the 13th inning
WPA: .436
Game Result: Mets 5, Diamondbacks 3

Billy Wagner blew the save but Beltran picked his teammate up in extra innings. Willie Randolph would be unemployed just a week later.

3. 9/23/2005
Play: Three-run homer off Gary Majewski in the 10th inning
WPA: .454
Game Result: Mets 5, Nationals 2

Carlos Baerga tied the game with a two-run homer in the 9th off Roberto Hernandez but Beltran's three-run shot sealed it one inning later. Steve Trachsel tossed six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts.

2. 8/29/2008
Play: Grand slam off Kevin Gregg in the 9th inning
WPA: .723
Game Result: Mets 5, Marlins 4

This put the Mets up three runs heading to the bottom of the 9th, which might as well have been one run given the bullpen at the time. Luis Ayala did what everyone expected him to do: allow two runs and give every Met fan a heart attack after allowing a mammoth foul ball home run which would have given the Marlins a win. Thanks for the memories Luis!

1. 8/22/2006
Play: Two-run homer off Jason Isringhausen in the 9th inning
WPA: .789
Game Result: Mets 8, Cardinals 7

Many fans call this their favorite regular season game ever and with good reason. I was in attendance and was treated to two tape measure shots from Carlos Delgado (one of which was #400 for his career), two homers from Albert Pujols and a Beltran come-from-behind walkoff.

MLB Trade Rumors: Jason Bay to the Mets?

raygu — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:00:28 -0000

by Rob Carr - AP

3 months ago: Boston Red Sox's Jason Bay, right, is congratulated by third base coach DeMarlo Hale (35) after hitting a solo home run against the Baltimore Orioles during the fourth inning of a baseball game, Friday, Sept. 18, 2009, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

View full size photo »

SI.com's Jon Heyman reported, via Twitter, yesterday that the Mets are not going to get into the bidding for Matt Holliday, but did make a bid for slugger Jason Bay:

#mets didnt want to get into protracted talks with holliday. also believe bay, as pull hitter with loft, fits citi field OK about 5 hours ago from web
#mets offered #bay 4 years for about $65 million, give or take. they'd probably have to bump it to 5 yrs to get him.

It was also reported that the Mets made an offer to catcher Bengie Molina. The Mets apparently want to sign one of the three biggest free agents in this year's free agent class.

Should the Mets sign both Bay and Molina, they would have a pretty solid lineup:

Jason Bay

Bengie Molina

Jeff Franceour

Daniel Murphy

Bay has never hit at the new Citifield, but as a Pirate, he went 5-15-.303-.382-.576-.957 at the old Shea Stadium. Bay's career home/road splits are a picture of consistency as he has hit .282-.387-.507-.893 at home (PNC Park and Fenway Park) and .278-.366-.532-.898 on the road in his career.

Bay's 2009 season was very productive even though his BA was a low .267. He went 36-119-.267-.384-.537-.921. Bay's BB% (15%), K% (30.5%) and ISO% (.269) were all at or close to career highs for him. Bay benefitted from a 49.1% FB% and a 19.7% HR/FB% in 2009.

Shouild Bay sign with the Mets, I do not see him hitting 30 HRs in 2010, but can see a solid 25-100 season from him assuming the Mets don't experience the numbers of injuries that plagued the team in 2009.

I was trading emails with Fake Teams reader DB11 today, and we agreed that Bay's NL-only league (UBA) auction value could be in the $30-$35 range in 2010 should he sign with the Mets.

Poll

Can Jason Bay hit 30 HRs in 2010 playing his home games at Citifield?

Rule 5 Applesauce - Rangers Sign Harden, Worrying About Pelfrey, Boras Speaks And Twitter Is Still Ridiculous

James Kannengieser — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:45:08 -0000

Former Rule 5 picks include Dan Uggla and our own Johan Santana, so you never know what gems might be found.

Meet the Mets

The Mets pick 7th in today's Rule 5 Draft. Check out Mark's list of potential picks from a few weeks back. MLBTradeRumors also offers up a preview.

Scott Boras says the Mets have the financial resources to sign any player they choose. He's probably right. The organization's real problem is determining which players to sign.

John Harper recently perpetuated the myth that Mike Pelfrey took a major step backwards in 2009, despite evidence that suggests otherwise. Ted Berg and Matt Cerrone weigh in on the topic.

Metstradamus riffs on the debunked Pat Burrell rumor and the possibility of signing Elmer Dessens. This had me laughing:

Funny how neither Dessens, Blanco, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Baerga, Mackey Sasser, nor anybody else with "intangibles" needed to be in the room to mentor Oliver when he signed that $36 million contract. Weird, huh?

Patrick Flood offers up his take on the inevitable Bengie Molina/Mets relationship.

Mets Police comments on the Sports Illustrated All-Decade team, which Carlos Beltran and Johan Santana were named too. MP also implies he would rather have Wally Backman on his team instead of Jeff Kent due to their respective effects on team chemistry. I'll take the probable Hall of Famer.

Around the NL East

Jayson Stark tweets that the Braves are only asking for prospects in return for Derek Lowe.

The Marlins traded Matt Lindstrom to the Astros for two minor leaguers and a PTBNL.

Federal Baseball wraps up the Nationals activity at the winter meetings.

The Good Phight is holding out hope for a Roy Halladay trade. Halladay, Lee and Hamels would be frightening and probably unstoppable.

Around MLB

The Royals offered Jason Kendall a two year contract. Umm, what?

The Mariners signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. Walkoff Walk has some advice for M's manager Don Wakamatsu regarding Patterson.

The Astros signed Brandon Lyon for three years, $15 million. Seems a bit excessive.

Mike Cameron's agent says his client has a special place in his heart for Seattle. Too bad the Mariners already have an awesome center fielder.

The Rangers signed Rich Harden and traded Kevin Millwood to the Orioles for Chris Ray. Evan Brunell at The Hardball Times weighs in.

MLB Trade Rumors: Juan Pierre to be Traded??

raygu — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 17:30:10 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers' Juan Pierre dives into third for a triple during the first inning of a baseball game against the Colorado Rockies, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Browse more photos »

In Sunday's article by Dylan Hernancez of the LA Times, Hernandez mentions the following when discussing some of the Dodger's offseason plans:

The Dodgers are expected to explore the possibility of dealing fourth outfielder Juan Pierre for an overpaid back-of-the-rotation pitcher in a trade that would essentially amount to a swap of bad contracts. Pierre is owed $18.5 million over the next two seasons.

This is not news as the Dodgers have been trying to deal Pierre since last offseason, but his contract prevented teams from trading for him. But Pierre put together a pretty good season in 2009, especially when he filled in for Manny Ramirez during his suspension. There was one school of thought that the Dodgers were a better team when Pierre was in the lineup.

Pierre was fourth in the NL in stolen bases in 2009, stealing 30 bases in 42 attempts. In 380 ABs, Pierre went 0-31-30-.308-.365-.392-.757. His OBP, OPS, BB% and BB/K% was his highest since his 2004 season with the Marlins.

More after the jump:

The first name that popped into my mind was the Braves Derek Lowe. I am not sure Lowe is considered a back of the rotation starter, but he does have a bad contract paying him $15 million over the next 3 seasons. Lowe went 15-10 with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in 2009. Lowe was hurt by an increase in his BB% from 1.92 in 2008 to 2.91 in 2009. His K/BB% fell from 3.27 in 2008 to 1.76 in 2009. Lowe's BABIP also increased from .287 in 2008 to .330 in 2009, well above his career BABIP of 0.299.

Another pitcher I thought of was the Mets Oliver Perez who has two years and $24 million left on his contract. If the Mets decide they want to field a team that plays to the size of its ballpark, they could look to Pierre to play LF. Or, if they decide that Carlos Beltran's knees can't take centerfield anymore, they could put Pierre in center, moving Beltran to LF. Pierre could bat leadoff with Jose Reyes batting second in the lineup, should he be healthy in 2010.

Marlins to Play Mets in Puerto Rico?

GameFish — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:28:14 -0000

Joy of joys, the Marlins are once again entertaining the idea of playing one of their home series in Puerto Rico next season. Yes, we've heard this particular rumor before, but according to reports, the series is a lot closer to happening than the one that was being negotiated for the 2008 season:

Major League Baseball is considering a proposal for the Marlins to host a series against the Mets at Hiram Bithorn Stadium in San Juan, Puerto Rico, in June or July, according to a Marlins source.

The Marlins’ 2010 schedule has Florida hosting the Mets at Land Shark Stadium June 28-30 but not in July. The Marlins also host the Mets May 13-16 and Sept. 21-22.

Normally I would be excited by anything and everything that would keep Mets fans a nice stretch of ocean away from Land Shark Stadium, but not in this case. As much as I loathe being crowded by blue and orange-clad New Yorkers at home, the Marlins-Mets series are the most popular and well-attended home series of the season, and as such, it doesn't make sense to move one of them.

I will never be in favor of something that short-changes Fish fans three home games, especially not three of the most popular home games of the season. And, as much as I like to see them suffer, this isn't exactly going to please all the transplanted Mets fans, either.

For all their complaints about attendance, the Marlins certainly aren't helping their own cause here.

Then there's this:

The Mets would be a particularly attractive draw because of the team’s Puerto Rican presence, including Carlos Beltran, Pedro Feliciano, Angel Pagan and Omir Santos. The Mets also are investigating re-signing Alex Cora, who hails from the island, and won’t rule out bringing back Carlos Delgado, a native of Aguadilla, P.R.

If the Mets are such an attractive draw in Puerto Rico, let them give up a home series to play there.

My Anonymous Sources...

James Kannengieser — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 19:15:08 -0000

Here is an ode to the totally out of control hot stove. Feel free to add any to my not-that-funny comments.

My Anonymous Source(s)...

...is actually Scott Boras and he's behind on his payments!

...guarantee that Matt Halladay will be a Met in 2010.

...claim that Omar Minaya broke a handshake agreement with Ramon Castro because Ramon gave him the dreaded "dead fish" handshake.

...are familiar with the thinking of people who have knowledge of a league official's inside man.

...say that Fernando Martinez will grow a moustache once he hits puberty.

...routinely misspell Gregg Zaun's first name, but not his last.

...claim that the Mets and Cubs have discussed the framework of a possibility that they might sit down to discuss swapping Luis Castillo and Milton Bradley, but only if certain parameters for preliminary negotiations can first be agreed upon.

...tell us that Scott Boras is so good at his job because he only negotiates in hot, small rooms after eating Chipotle for lunch (with extra beans).

...are outraged (OUTRAGED!) that the biggest fraud in baseball history, Mark McGwire, was hired as Cardinals hitting coach, but are thrilled to see all-around great guy Matt Williams as the new Diamondbacks 1st base coach.

...are trying to find the words to describe Bengie Molina without being too disrespectful.

...just got promoted to head janitor at the Yankees Tampa facility.

...assure us that the Yankees have no interest in signing Mark Teixeira (told to us on 12/23/08)
***UPDATE*** Tex signed with Yankees on 12/24/08

...shot down any chance of Matt Holliday going to the Yankees (told to us on 11/16/09)
***UPDATE*** (Stay tuned)

Ted Berg Twitter Edition

...report that multiple GMs are looking at David Wright this offseason, but only because he's so easy on the eyes.

...just introduced himself to me, thus rendering him pathetically nonymous.

...say the Mets will entertain callers on Jose Reyes, but only because they have a really funny answering machine.

Last, But Not Least, Edition

...are just a figment of my ambitious imagination.

Notes On Baseball America's Top 10 Mets Prospects

Sam Page — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 11:00:28 -0000

As you undoubtedly saw in the fanshots or somewhere else yesterday, Baseball America released its top 10 prospects list for the Mets, with Adam Rubin reprising as the author of the write-up and subsequent chat. Rubin's article didn't provide much insight into the ranking, but the chat cleared a few things up. Here are the things I found most interesting about the list with relevant quotes:

Fernando Martinez, the incumbent #1 prospect for two years, drops to #3 after his best season in the minors (.877 OPS in AAA at age 20). He continued to be chronically injured, tearing his meniscus, as mentioned in the article. Rubin said in the chat, "Fernando Martinez has fallen far enough that the Mets talk about going outside for a left fielder for 2010." That makes me worry the Mets are putting stock into his worthless sample-size major-league audition, because I find it hard to believe an injury could hurt his stock so much in a season where he had a break out. I know it was his fourth straight season with an injury, but on the other hand, that means he's gone from injury prone, projectable, with no results to injury prone, projectable, with good results. Rubin later said, when asked about Martinez no longer being untouchable, " His value is so diminished right now. He's certainly not untouchable, but teams are very concerned because he's been unable to stay healthy for four straight years."
Mejia taking the #1 spot is not surprising, but his being ranked four spots ahead of Holt kind of is. Rubin said this of Holt: "I know a fair amount of the scouts who watch Binghamton regularly during the season. The consensus seems to be that he will be a No. 3 starter in the majors. Here's a report one person gave me on Holt: Good four-seam fastball (88-93 mph, peak 95), curveball (75-78) and changeup (79-81). Command needs work. Wasn't quite the same after missing three weeks with an ankle injury. Has to learn to maintain a consistent release point. He'll add some weight as well which will improve his durability and stamina. Needs to improve from a mental perspective. Often allows situations to get out of hand by compounding problems due to overthrowing. Has to eliminate obsession with strikeouts." Holt supposedly was throwing in the lows 90s peak 98 on his fastball in 2008. When a reader questioned the change in perception later in the chat, Rubin insisted that Holt tops out at 95.
They still love Wilmer Flores, and put him in rightfield on the "Projected 2013 lineup." I wouldn't read into that much, since they basically just throw whatever prospects they can into these projected lineups; they likely will never happen. Take, for instance, the projected lineup for next year according to the 2006 version of this list:

Catcher Francisco Pena

First Base Carlos Delgado

Second Base Anderson Hernandez

Third Base David Wright

Shortstop Jose Reyes

Left Field Lastings Milledge

Center Field Carlos Beltran

Right Field Fernando Martinez

No. 1 Starter Mike Pelfrey

No. 2 Starter Philip Humber

No. 3 Starter John Maine

No. 4 Starter Deolis Guerra

No. 5 Starter Kevin Mulvey

Closer Billy Wagner

Reflects something of a past optimism, as opposed to the 2011 projected lineup, which reflects something of a past delusion:

Catcher Francisco Pena

First Base Fernando Martinez

Second Base Greg Veloz

Third Base David Wright

Shortstop Jose Reyes

Left Field Lastings Milledge

Center Field Carlos Gomez

Right Field Carlos Beltran

No. 1 Starter John Maine

No. 2 Starter Oliver Perez

No. 3 Starter Mike Pelfrey

No. 4 Starter Deolis Guerra

No. 5 Starter Kevin Mulvey

Closer Eddie Kunz

That outfield is awesome, but that pitching staff might be the worst-conceived in history. Also note them sticking Fernando Martinez somewhere, a la Wilmer. I also find it interesting that they projected a healthy Carlos Beltran to be in right field by 2011, but they this year, they put Carlos Beltran with irreparable bone-on-bone knee injuries in CF in 2013.

Speaking of Francisco Pena, apparently he will be left off the top 30 prospects list, per Rubin. Not even Mark and I did that in our ongoing top-26, and I really dislike Francisco Pena as a prospect.
Kirk Niewenhuis got ranked best defensive outfielder, which is encouraging, since the biggest question about his abilities are related to his fielding, not his hitting. Rubin passed along this scouting report: "He will garner comparisons to Curtis Granderson in terms of his position and ability to fill up the stat sheet in many offensive categories. Good opposite field power and a plus overall hitter. Great contact guy. Batted in the leadoff spot at the end of the season with St. Lucie and Binghamton and produced many multi-hit games. Figures to be a 20-20 guy. Good range in center and an average to slightly above average major-league arm." He also cited a scout that compared his mentality to Kirk Gibson's. That's high praise, for a guy that didn't crack the top 10.
Nate Vineyard retired.
Juan Urbina made the top-10 without throwing a professional pitch. Rubin justified ranking him ahead of the more established Jeurys Familia and Kyle Allen, thusly: The Mets spent $1.2 million on Urbina because they believe he's a top-10-caliber prospect. His fastball averages 88-89 mph, with a peak of 91 mph, but he has a clean delivery. Team officials believe the velocity will climb a little as he gets instruction, but that's fine for a lefthander. Familia throws from the opposite side and considerably harder and doesn't have a clean delivery. Allen also is righthanded." I nominate "Allen also is righthanded" to be the go-to non-sequitur at Amazin' Avenue.
The Mets won't push prospects anymore with Tony B gone.
Robbie Shields has grission. Rubin called him the baseball equivalent of a "gym rat," which is a new one.
Jordany Valdespin was named best athlete. He put up good numbers last year in Savannah, but didn't get promoted, so I assumed he must be a bad athlete or something. Guess not.

Why Omar Minaya Failed And What It Means For The Future

Sam Page — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 11:00:22 -0000

On July 27, 2002, Omar Minaya, then General Manager of the Montreal Expos, traded Lee Steven, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, and Cliff Lee to Mark Shapiro's Indians for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew.

In 2002, Major League Baseball owned the Expos. The offseason before, the Expos had narrowly avoided contraction, because the Twins, the other team in line for contraction, had another year on their lease of the Metrodome. In a month the league would agree to a new collective bargaining agreement that barred contraction, but at the time it still seemed a possibility. So MLB's proxy GM, Minaya, looked for a player to maybe help the Expos win a Wild Card berth, a parting gift for Montreal.

One of the many front-office personnel the Expos shed under their reorganization by MLB was Tony LaCava, their farm director. He jumped to the Indians as a cross-checker. When Omar Minaya called Mark Shapiro about Bartolo Colon, Tony LaCava handpicked the prospects the Indians would receive. When the trade was announced, Shapiro, like Bill Smith would be six years later, was denounced as a young GM over his head. It also marked the first time, Minaya got "his guy" in a trade.

I recall this point in baseball history because it has much to do with why both of these men are currently employed as general managers. Both of these general managers are also coming off 90-loss seasons in the wake of playoff aspirations. Omar Minaya and Mark Shapiro, however, couldn't be more different.

Omar Minaya is a former pro-baseball player, drafted out of high school. Early in Minaya's tenure with the Mets, his success was championed as an exemplar of old-fashioned roster construction. Before Minaya lost "his guys," the process entailed conference call between his scouts, Sandy Johnson and Tony Bernazard, and his paperwork guy, John Ricco. This franchise doesn't just contrast the careful calculation of other front offices, it advertises the fact: "Paperwork, that's false hustle. It takes away creativity. People who are into paperwork are into covering their asses, so if things go wrong they can point to all the work they did."

No team evidences false hustle better than the Indians. Mark Shapiro graduated from Princeton and has a reputation as one of the smartest GM's in baseball. Like Minaya, Shapiro surrounded himself with men of similar background--his sidekick Chris Antonetti is a Georgetown man. The Indians under Shapiro have developed a process, which involves a lot of "paperwork," most famously, the proprietary DiamondView system, supposed to quantify a players' holistic value. As Antonetti described the goal of DiamondView: "There's still this level of variability, but we've reduced it to the smallest level we can." The Indians, the front office, are the progressive group many Mets fans clamor for, but the Indians, the team, are the 90-game losers Mets fans are sick of watching.

Therein is an interesting point of comparison: how did these two seemingly polar-opposite executives, who launched each other's career with the most lopsided trade of the decade, end up at a similar point? Of course, there's no easy answer--'They both forgot to hit the win button!'--and the two situations are, to an extent, unique. Still, one would expect the American League's smartest GM and the National League's highest payroll to battle for the playoffs, not the sixth pick in the first-year player draft.

A recent post at Let's Go Tribe entitled "Fire Everyone! - Mark Shapiro" came up with an answer, thought not a completely comfortable one. The article was the last in a series of posts on why, obviously, everyone should be fired, so there's a sense the author is playing devil's advocate. Still, he raises an interesting point about the nature of the GM's job, and this article is largely an addendum to it, so give it a read too. The crux of his argument and the cliff notes version of the post is neatly summarized here:

For all that, however, the brilliant executive can't necessarily tell you whether it's better to overspend on Raul Ibañez or Kerry Wood. He can't necessarily devise a process to tell you that, and he can't necessarily hire the right person to tell you that, either. Nor can he devise a process to hire the right person to tell you that. It doesn't always come down to objective analysis or having a good process. Sometimes it comes down to talent: the talent to play, the talent to evaluate talent, the talent to develop talent, and the judgment to make decisions about talent.

Jay argues that evaluating talent, if not innate, is at least a skill in and of itself. The Colon-trade was Shapiro's signature move, but LaCava, the scout, handpicked the players he would receive. The laundry list of players Shapiro has acquired from horse-trading is impressive, but none match up to Lee-Sizemore-Phillips. In fact, with Huntington and LaCava long gone, is it coincidence that the returns on Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez were so underwhelming?

Maybe, but I am more interested in the way this situation runs counter to the assessment I constantly hear, and occasionally have given, of Omar Minaya: "He's a great scout and evaluator of talent, but is too sloppy with resources. The Mets would be better suited with a more statistically-inclined GM." Is this Shapiro/Minaya comparison a two parts to whole situation, where one lacks the scouting acumen, the other a supercomputer called DiamondView?

First, consider Minaya's scouting reputation. Starting out as an international scout with the Rangers, he signed Sammy Sosa. That's the kind of signing you can hang your hat on, and Minaya has, as the other players he signed include non-entities: Chris Colon, Ruben Mateo, Jorge Toca, and Timo Perez(!). He also signed Fernando Tatis and Joaquin Benoit, who became pretty good players. Still, including my performance-enhanced namesake, not exactly the greatest list in the world, but a good one.

This reputation comes equally from his supposed ability to "identify players who can help the Mets" and get them, irrespective of costs. It sounds basic, but seemingly describes whatever Shapiro lacked when deciding "whether it's better to overspend on Raul Ibañez or Kerry Wood," as Jay says. Call them Minaya's guys, as in "Omar got his guy" or Minaya's favorite synonym for person.

It started with his two biggest free-agent pick-ups: Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. Pedro's talent was obvious, but the contract was a minor disaster as he was injured through most of it. Minaya claimed that Pedro "made the brand," i.e. made the Mets more attractive to international free agents, but the jury is still out on that one. His other big signing, Carlos Beltran, will undoubtedly go down as the biggest success of his tenure. Beltran, one of the few true five-tool players left in baseball, has been worth significantly more than his $18M/year. It's unclear to what extent Minaya predicted, or even knows, that to be true, as he likely just sought to get Beltran for the best price he could, without any precise estimation of his value. In fact, Beltran was supposedly someone Minaya didn't get the green light to sign in Texas. Carlos had been Minaya's guy for a while.

When the Mets were at their best, in 2006, his guys were nearly always coming through. In a 2006 article, Dave Studeman identified ten players that Minaya picked up on the cheap and became integral parts of the great '06 squad: Chad Bradford, Darren Oliver, Duaner Sanchez, Pedro Feliciano, Jose Valentin, John Maine, Endy Chavez, Roberto Hernandez, Guillermo Mota, and Oliver Perez. Players like Jose Valentin, a guy no one else would expect to be a starting-caliber second baseman, were making Minaya look like a genius, like he had that something Mark Shapiro lacked. Those were ten moves that get you on the cover of Sports Illustrated, that made people pay attention when you started talking about "false hustle," as if it were secret knowledge.

In the conclusion to that piece, Studeman writes, "It may be luck, it may be skill. It may be the result of a team with money taking good calculated risks." Here's a hint: six of those players were relievers, the most luck-dependent players in baseball. Ultimately, though, time revealed the truth: it was luck. Even from that original list, of the seven he retained, five fizzled out, either from injuries or ineffectiveness. Regarding the other two, Endy Chavez was replaced by the awful Jeremy Reed and Pedro Feliciano became the last man standing in several subsequent bullpen failures.

Then, Minaya started to display some bad tendencies. He became too loyal to his guys: if a reliever with poor skills floundered in the first-half, Minaya would trust him to right the ship. Similarly, as if to underscore that he had done something right, Minaya would pay ridiculously over-market contracts to previous buy-low pick-ups, like Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo, negating the value that made the moves good in the first place. He proved unable to manage injury risks, entrusting Moises Alou and John Maine with serious duties while keeping no reliable back-ups on hand. Minaya's front office overreacted to small sample sizes, see: Omir Santos, Marlon Anderson, and Daniel Murphy. He gave away Heath Bell, Brian Bannister, and Darren O'Day.

Yet, none of these miscues sticks out as a particularly strong indictment of his ability's as a scout, just as a talent evaluator. Moises Alou was a great player, when he played. He was a horrible pick-up for a team that needed a reliable, everyday left-fielder. On the major league level, talent evaluation involves using the most accurate objective measures to evaluate a player's track record, something observation can't do reliably, in any sport or field. These past few years, the Mets would have been better suited with a Mark Shapiro-type, with no particular scouting expertise, but an ability to objectively evaluate major-league talent and make sound business decisions. With a large payroll and the established core of Wright/Reyes, it seems the Mets badly needed some false hustle, some paperwork, some stability, not a huge gamble at 15 of the the 25 roster spots every season.

But maybe it is too late for that. As fielding stats get more widely accepted, it seems a glorified Moneyball scenario, where a few teams with superior objective analysis carry an edge, is becoming less likely. As more players, are signing long-term deals with the teams that drafted them, and fewer are hitting free agency, the statistical analysis the Mets have been so neglectful of becomes just the baseline. Indeed, as Jay wrote about some of the most successful teams around the league: "it's noteworthy that other organizations that have gone with the 'Ivy League whiz kid' GM model tend to have a 'wise old baseball man' figure hanging close by, advising the gifted non-scout executive. The Red Sox had Bill Lajoie attached to Theo Epstein; Allard Baird is in that role now, while Lajoie is now advising Huntington in Pittsburgh. The Rays put Gerry Hunsicker with Andrew Friedman, and down in Texas, Jon Daniels has access to no less than John Hart and Nolan Ryan." With that pattern in mind, I was encouraged to read that the Wilpons convinced Sandy Johnson to stay out of retirement, allegedly in preparation for a non-Minaya centric front office.

For similar reasons, these forces will also probably push forward the mythical symbiosis of scouting and statistics that everyone pays lip-service to but isn't quite sure what they're referring to. More than just pitchf/x and hitf/x, the observation of both amateur and professional talent will come down to hyper-specific scouting reports that use data and observation to spot trends of growth or deterioration in a player's skills. And maybe, even then, it will take some "wise old baseball man," with a special eye for talent, to build the best franchise.

On December 10, 2008, the Mets, Indians, and Mariners completed a three-way trade, in which the Mariners received Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Jason Vargas, Mike Carp, Ezequiel Carrera, Maikel Cleto, and Franklin Gutierrez. The Mets received J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed, and Sean Green, while the Indians received Joe Smith and Luis Valbuena.

This trade, for me, perfectly encapsulates two failed models for a front office and the future of a what it means to a successful one. Omar Minaya acquired a talented player with serious injury concerns, and severely downgraded two known major-league entities, presumably not knowing he did. Shapiro acquired a minor league infielder with good stats, but a "bad body" and mixed scouting reports. While there is plenty of time for him to improve, Valbuena was merely replacement level this season. Meanwhile, Jack Zduriencik, the long-time scouting director who understands and embraces statistical analysis, brought in a 6-WAR centerfielder and a boatload of interesting prospects.

The Mets under Minaya were famed for embracing multiple perspectives, both of the scout and the statistician. Sadly, they failed to understand how those roles fit into a functioning front office. First, they need a reliable process for evaluating and valuing major league talent, a la the Indians. Then, they can get their "guys."

World Series Batting Order Optimizer: Philadelpha Phillies

devil_fingers — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 17:44:19 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley, right, arrives at Penn Station with his wife, Jen. He's leading off up the escalator, so I don't see why he can't lead off at a baseball game as part of the World series. Note the relatively modest use of product in his hair. Maybe playing the Yankees in New York brings it out of him.

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Game One of the 2009 World Series ended with the Phillies (mainly Cliff Le) dominating the Yankees in a complete game. The batting order for the Yankees didn't quite match what I recommended for them yesterday, but we hardly expected that, did we? The Phillies have some very good hitters, although not quite as good overall as the Yankees. There is a definiitely dividing line between the really good hitters (Utley, Howard, Werth) and the others. (But it's worth keeping in mind, well-known-on-line-"sabermetric"-analyst-who-shall-go-nameless, that most of the less skilled Philadelphia hitters justify their playing because of their excellent defense. Also, stop using VORP.) The heavily-left-leaning nature of the core of the Phillies offense also poses a challenge. But hey, there's the easy way, and then there's the cowboy way... And it's nice not to have a lousy lineup to optimize. So here we go, it's late and I want to get this done before the World Series ends.

I'll leave out the usual incredibly long methodological preface that is on the other posts (again, see yesterday's post if you want to read it all). And definitely make sure you look it over before you complain about something. Keep in mind that these projections aren't mine, they're the 2010 Bill James projections. Yes, they're a bit goofy (particularly for the Phillies), but they're the only completely set I have at the moment. They get the job done well enough. Before we get started adjusting for platoons and everything, here are the unadjusted Phillies projections. I've calculated the wOBA myself, and the baserunning (EqHAR from BP) and double-play rate projections are also crude homemade projections.

Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.332	.260	.344	.408	.148	0.2	-0.4	-1.8
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.399	.278	.372	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Chase Utley	2B	L	.380	.290	.384	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.304	.253	.296	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6
Raul Ibanez	DH	L	.349	.270	.340	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Jason Werth	RF	R	.371	.269	.369	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Ben Francisco	LF	R	.337	.269	.339	.438	.169	1.1	0.3	-0.8

And away we go...

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. RHP w/DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Chase Utley	2B	L	.390	.290	.393	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Raul Ibanez	DH	L	.358	.270	.348	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Jason Werth	RF	R	.365	.269	.362	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.410	.278	.381	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Ben Francisco	LF	R	.332	.269	.333	.438	.169	1.1	0.3	-0.8
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.327	.260	.338	.408	.148	0.2	-0.4	-1.8
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.299	.253	.291	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: I'm sure you've noticed a crazy thing in there. But I stand by hitting Francisco in front of Ruiz. Of, what, it's not that? Utley hitting first seems crazy? Well, this whole thing is crazy. You want the best guys hitting #1, #2, and #4. However, as with other teams, all the Phillies best hitters vs. RHP are lefties, and you want to avoid stacking them so that the opposition can't leveraeg a lefty-reliever against them, as the Yankees did with Damaso Marte vs. Utley and Howard last night (obviously, it didn't decide the game). Also note that Chase Utley is good at everything. Maybe it will take a 2 HR performance against the Yankees in the World Serie for people to notice what a badass this guy has been and continues to be. He plays second base. He's one of the best (and possibly the best) defenders at that position in the majors, even after his offseason hip surgery. He's a great hitter. He's got a total greaseball hairdo. You knew all that. Did you also know that he stole 23 bases in the 2009 regular season without getting caught? Oh, he's also one of the best baserunners in the league overall, #2 in EqBRR between powerless speedsters like Michael Bourn and Rajai Davis this past season. Oh, and of all the players I ran the numbers on this past season, he is the best at avoiding the double play. Not bad for a guy who, to listen to some commentators, is a pretty good "sidekick" for Ryan Howard. Dude is so underrated he's raised some interesting questions. I'd say he's about as underrated as Carlos Beltran, except that Beltran gets more play (being in New York and one of Joe Posnanski's favorites doesn't hurt) and Utley has been the better player the last 4-5 season. Someone asked me last night on Twitter what it would take for Utley to finally win the NL MVP. I guess we'll see when Albert Pujols signs with the Royals in a couple of seasons... Anyway, where was I? Oh yeah. If I didn't worry so much about handedness, I'd probably hit Werth #1, then Utley-Ibanez-Howard or something. But I do worry about it. Hitting Chutley first minimizes his GDP skills and power, but since we ended up putting Victorino second because of handedness issues and Ibanez isn't as powerful as Werth and Howard, it does take advantage of Utley's skill on the bases. Werth has enough power to do well at cleanup and enough OBP to tackle the #4 spots frequent leadoff opportunities. Since neither he nor Ibanez are as good on the bases as Utley and VIctorino, having Howard behind them makes sense. Again, Howard #5 seems low, but #5 should be better than #3, and I needed to separate the lefties. Rollins offense has obviously declined, but he's not horrible, and #6 is a good spot for a guy who can steal bases in front of the weak hitters behind him who have trouble moving him over themselves.

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. RHP, no DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Chase Utley	2B	L	.390	.290	.393	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Raul Ibanez	LF	L	.358	.270	.348	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Jason Werth	RF	R	.365	.269	.362	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.410	.278	.381	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.327	.260	.338	.408	.148	0.2	-0.4	-1.8
Pitcher
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.299	.253	.291	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: Not much to add here. Remember that I could go either way on the pitcher thing... even a good-hitting pitcher is still usually worse than Pedro Feliz vs. RHP, although it's closer than you'd like. Basically I just took out Fransisco and put in the pitcher and moved Ruiz (not a bad hitter for a catcher) up. But let's talk about Rollins: He's not as good as he was (or he wasn't as good as we thought, depending on where you estimate his true talent in 2005-8 relative to now), but certain analysts have said that Rollins isn't the star he's made out to be. I don't know how you measure "starness," and I'll admit that I find JRoll's cockiness enjoyable. Still, just not being as good as Derek Jeter doesn't mean a player isn't good (and not that Jeter's the best SS in baseball, he's just an interesting comparison given the WS matchup). Moreover, how far is Rollins from Jeter, really? Sure, this season Jeter's about 5 wins better. But check it: FanGraphs has Jeter at about 26 WAR 2005-2009. Rollins is at a bit over 23 in the same period. That's pretty close to equal. Yes, it's true to say that Rollins is miscast as a leadoff hitter, but that doesn't mean he isn't (or hasn't been) an outstanding player, or even a star. It's weird how short- (and/or "narrow-") sighted people can be. Oh,. and one more thing on Utley power being "wasted" at leadoff: despite hitting #3, both his home runs last night were solo shots. Against a demonstration that batting order doesn't give as much control as we'd think, and why sometimes it's just better to give a good hitter (potentially) extra opportunities by moving him up than hoping he'll come up with runners on. And again OBP issues aside, putting guys like Rollins and Victorino in front of power hitters like Utley, Howard, and Werth neutralizes their speed, since they don't need to steal to get into position for these guys very often, and the power dimension of the good hitters also means that their advancement skills aren't leveraged properly, either -- Ryan Howard doesn't hit many singles that need a guy to book it from first to third.

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. LHP w/DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Jason Werth	RF	R	.389	.269	.389	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Chase Utley	2B	L	.360	.290	.366	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Ben Francisco	LF	R	.353	.269	.357	.438	.169	1.1	0.3	-0.8
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.378	.278	.354	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.348	.260	.362	.408	.148	0.3	0.7	-1.8
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Raul Ibanez	DH	L	.331	.270	.324	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.319	.253	.312	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: This seems a bit backward to me, too. Howard hitting cleanup vs. LHP but not RHP? Again, it's a function of a) getting the best hitters on top and alternating R/L guys, and b) a true estimate of platoon splits, as covered recently regarding Howard by MGL and more generally in my Book-inspired Platoon Splits Project (which I need to come back to after the season when I have the time to see how I did). Werth is projected to be the best hitter vs. LHP, so hitting him cleanup might have made sense, but then that mean putting Howard #2 or #1 in front of a relatively low-power RHH like Ben Francisco or Carlos Ruiz, and if there's one thing Howard doesn't do well, it's run the bases. I went back and forth on Utley vs. Werth in the #1 and #2 spots, but finally settled on Werth leading off because this puts Utley (the superior basestealer and baserunner) closer to the less powerful hitters like Francisco and Ruiz (and without estimating them specifically, Utley's platoon splits at a glance are pretty small). When all else fails, give the best hitters the most PAs. Ibanez projects as terrible vs. LHP according to these methods, but having Victorino and Rollins #6 and #7 (they could go in either order, really) gives good basestealers in front of him and the bad-even-with-the-platoon advantage Feliz, which, as I've noted many times, is a better use of their stealing abililty than putting them in front of Utley and Howard.

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. LHP, no DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Jason Werth	RF	R	.389	.269	.389	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Chase Utley	2B	L	.360	.290	.366	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.378	.278	.354	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.348	.260	.362	.408	.148	0.3	0.7	-1.8
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Raul Ibanez	LF	L	.331	.270	.324	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Pitcher
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.319	.253	.312	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: Yes, I do think (at least according to the James projections), that without the DH the Phillies shold be platooning Francisco and Ibanez, and that's without even taking defense and baserunning into account. But we aren't here to dispute who should be in the lineup, just how it should be ordered.This is prety much the same, except that without Francisco, I ended having to put Victorino in the #3 spot. I picked him over Ruize because a) the #5 hitter should be better than #3, and b) Ruiz has a problem with GDPs, and Victorino is good at avoiding them. Morever, Werth and (especially) Utley's skill on the bases can help Victorino out despite his lack of power, and Howard's skills are diminished vs. LHP, so Victorino's basestealing isn't as wasted. Rollins could arguably switch with Ruiz here, if you wanted to leverage his basestealing a bit more, but I like it the way it is.

So there it is. I know this I've made some controversial suggestions as far as batting order goes. Maybe I'm too dogmatic about splitting up lefties, but that's what I've gone with. It's fun to see the different ways of thinking about it, at least I hope it is for you guys. These things are a lot of work, but a lot of fun, so I hope people get a bit of entertainment out of it and aren't just irritated.

I can't wait to see Manuel lead off Utley tonight!

MLB Trade Rumors: Carlos Beltran to the Red Sox?

raygu — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 13:15:22 -0000

More photos » by Henny Ray Abrams - AP

3 months ago: New York Mets' Carlos Beltran singles in the seventh inning of the Mets' 6-3 loss to the Florida Marlins in a baseball game at Citi Field in New York, Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2009. (AP Photo/Henny Ray Abrams)

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Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald wrote yesterday that he thinks the Red Sox should trade for the Met's center fielder Carlos Beltran to improve their outfield defense. A trade for Beltran would move current CFer Jacoby Ellsbury to left field, thus eliminating the Sox chances of re-signing Jason Bay.

If the Mets do look to rid themselves of some big contracts, Beltran could be on the block, and the Mets could get a pretty good return for Beltran since his contract doesn't run out until 2011.

Ia m sure the usual names would be involved in any deal for Carlos Beltran-Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Josh Reddick, and so on.

Poll

Should the Red Sox trade some major league ready prospects for Carlos Beltran?

Yes, he's better all around than Jaspn Bay-do it.

119 votes

No, keep the prospects and sign Bay or Matt Holliday.

257 votes

376 votes | Poll has closed

Catcher	Francisco Pena
First Base	Carlos Delgado
Second Base	Anderson Hernandez
Third Base	David Wright
Shortstop	Jose Reyes
Left Field	Lastings Milledge
Center Field	Carlos Beltran
Right Field	Fernando Martinez
No. 1 Starter	Mike Pelfrey
No. 2 Starter	Philip Humber
No. 3 Starter	John Maine
No. 4 Starter	Deolis Guerra
No. 5 Starter	Kevin Mulvey
Closer	Billy Wagner

Catcher	Francisco Pena
First Base	Fernando Martinez
Second Base	Greg Veloz
Third Base	David Wright
Shortstop	Jose Reyes
Left Field	Lastings Milledge
Center Field	Carlos Gomez
Right Field	Carlos Beltran
No. 1 Starter	John Maine
No. 2 Starter	Oliver Perez
No. 3 Starter	Mike Pelfrey
No. 4 Starter	Deolis Guerra
No. 5 Starter	Kevin Mulvey
Closer	Eddie Kunz